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Jun 30, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | June 30, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | June 30, 2025
00:00
33:51
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. So one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. It's radio's Gil Alexander, everybody. That's radio's Kelly Biblet.
0:21
How you doing, man? Hey, man. I'm doing great. How about you? Good. Did you have, uh, did you have, uh, ole, uh, Pot-keeter or Po- No... Potketer last night? I had Max Grazerman. I had to watch him miss 72 putts. Yeah.
0:33
We- I shouldn't, I shouldn't really be complaining. Potketer could have ended it sooner too. Nobody could make a putt down the stretch. Yeah, but Gra- Grazerman had 100 ti- tries at it. Yeah. 18 would've been nice.
0:43
Sorry. He was doing a good job of making things outside of 15 feet and- Yeah... within five feet, Gil, but that ole five to 15 range, oof. Sorry about that, man. It's okay.
0:52
Would've been nice to, to hit back to back, but we ta- we talked about it last week. You get these birdie fests going. You're not, they're not huge investments for me anyways, but an outright hit is an outright hit.
1:02
Um, it got to a point where there was at least only two of them. Kir- the three-man playoff is always tricky. When people ask me about hedging- Yeah...
1:09
golf bets and everything, look, I hedge probably more than what a lot of people do in other sports with golf outrights, but when you go to a three-man playoff, there's not really much you can do.
1:18
In my opinion, like, there's not really much you should do with your ticket then. But Kirk went out early, then it was down to the final two, then I was able to hedge off a little bit cleaner, so still a good week.
1:27
Well, not on the leaflet quite yet, Max Grazerman. Um, today on the show, Wes Reynolds will join us to talk golf and other things that he is betting, as is always the case here on Mondays.
1:38
We'll chat up the AFC East in honor of our NFL betting guide coming out tomorrow. The first day of July tomorrow, uh, last day of June today. You know what that means.
1:47
That means we gotta look at July Most Wins Major League Baseball today. We'll do that in about, ooh, I don't know, 15 minutes, maybe less. Talk MLB July wins, as June has been determined. June is dunzo. Over.
2:00
The Houston Astros back-to-back June titlists. [laughs] Where, where are they hanging that banner? [laughs] They didn't, they didn't show the champagne celebration after the game yesterday- That's so weird...
2:11
which was very interesting. I don't know why they didn't do that. Wow. Uh, Paul Spoor on baseball as well. Um, and it is the beginning of Wimbledon, by the way.
2:18
I'm going to, uh, repeat a, uh, a joke that, uh, Drew made on the podcast when, uh, he and I were both wearing white and Zack wasn't. Code violation, Kelly Biblet not wearing white at Wimbledon today. Yep, sorry.
2:30
All right. Close though. Nice try. Um- Yeah, it was g- kind of close. All right, I started f- I started with seven plays today on day one of Wimbledon. The difference between- Nice...
2:38
the, the French Open and Wimbledon is the French Open spreads the first round over three days. Wimbledon doesn't. It's over two days, and there's just so many matches to handicap.
2:47
Uh, I ended up with seven, three on the men's side, four on the ladies' side. Two have started already. Um, Roberto Bautista Agut, who's in the fourth set right now against Cam Norrie, that is ongoing.
2:59
And then, uh, Jacob Fearnley is a big dog, uh, against Jo- uh, Joao Fonseca. That has begun as well.
3:06
But the five remaining plays, one on the men's side, Jan-Lennard Struff, got him at minus 133, uh, taking on Filip Misolic. That's, uh, in a bit, and you know how tennis matches go.
3:19
You don't know exactly when they're gonna start, but Struff has yet to begin. Uh, that's the remaining one on the men's side.
3:25
And then on the ladies' side, all four, and again, these are available for everybody who's a s- a subscriber, vsin.com/picks. Every host, every guest, every sport.
3:33
I know Zack's probably got a bunch of tennis plays as well, but I got four. Olga Danilovic at minus 143 is the big, uh, favorite over Shuai Zheng. Uh, that is the, uh, the one favorite I have.
3:45
Janina Wickmayer, [clears throat] don't understand why she's a dog here against Renata Zarazua. [clears throat] You know all about, [clears throat] pardon me, you know all about the Wickmayer-Zarazua rivalry, don't you?
3:55
Oh, man, a- anytime I see those two names on the- [laughs]... odds board, Gil, I g- h- how could Wickmayer possibly be an underdog in this situation? [laughs] Uh, and then two dogs, one of which is monster.
4:07
Uh, Talia Gibson, Talia Gibson, plus 536 against Naomi Osaka. You want a big dog? You got a huge dog- Ooh... day one. We back to, back to, is this more of a fade of Osaka or more of a play on Gibson? It's both.
4:20
It's, it's, Osaka hasn't really done anything here to merit being such a colossal favorite, and Gibson has some success on the, on the surface.
4:28
Uh, and then the other one, and I called this one on the podcast sight unseen, was, uh, Katarina Siniakova, plus 141 against Zheng Qinwen.
4:37
By the way, there have already, you, you s- you say, wow, you've got Osaka and Zheng Qinwen losing. There's already been upsets at Wimbledon this morning. Uh, on the ladies' side, Jelena Ostapenko, goodbye already.
4:49
Really? Mm-hmm. Wow. [clears throat] Her surface is mainly clay, but she has good grass numbers. She's done. And, uh, then by walkover, your favorite way to end a tennis match, Ons Jabeur is done.
4:59
Poor, poor girl with the injuries. Uh, but on the men's side, big upset this morning, Benjamin Bonzi already takes down Daniil Medvedev. So the upsets happen. Daniil. Uh, what was, what was Jabeur's story?
5:11
She was coming back from injury or something? She's had so many injuries over time. Okay. Yeah. She's, she's been a Wimbledon finalist before. Um, famously, I think Drew had her at, like, 33 to 1 one year.
5:22
That was the year Rybakina beat her.
5:23
That's why I was like, I don't wanna put words in our guest's mouth, but I feel like it was Drew or Zack saying, like, "Well, I think if you could, I, I think she might be someone I'd consider more if I could trust the injury stuff a little bit more."
5:33
Yeah. But- Yeah... apparently not.
5:34
And by the way, the two futures again that I have, I didn't end up doing anything on the men's side 'cause it's so top-heavy with Alcaraz and Sinner, but I did end up playing two outrights on the ladies' side.
5:44
No surprise. Iga, nine to one to win Wimbledon. You asked me last week, um, am I surprised that she's around 10 to one? Um, no, I, I understand why. Hasn't been her year, but she has shown grass prowess.
5:56
Nine to one, you won't get that price very often on her. Uh, the f- uh, the five-time Slam winner.
6:01
And then Maddie Keys Trying to win her second slam of the year at 18 to 1, uh, got hurt, but she's got a dicey match this morning against Elena Gabriela Rous- Rousse already. So those are the tennis plays.
6:14
Two futures, both on the ladies' side, uh, and then the seven matches today. Um, visa.com/picks, if you're looking for the tennis picks, 'cause I noticed this last night, um, six of them, six of the seven got on the...
6:29
You know, when you go to the picks page, it's everybody's picks cascading in real time. Yeah, it's just in chronological order, right? Right. So six of my seven got on there.
6:36
A seventh, and only the seventh, got under the tennis category. So it's a little janky.
6:43
You have to click on a, that, we'll, we'll try to work on that, but there's, you gotta click on a f- on a c- at least a couple things last night you did. Yeah.
6:50
Yeah, if you're not, if you're not seeing or you don't think you're seeing everything- Yes... on that main page, either go to the person specifically or the sport specifically. That usually helps out a bit. Yeah.
6:59
Sorry about that. We'll, we'll, we'll, we'll make sure that that gets, uh, corrected there. What, uh, real quick before we move on, just thoughts on the men's futures overall.
7:07
I know you, Zach, and Drew did the podcast on Friday- Yes. Yes we did... so everybody should listen to that, but- Be In The Book podcast...
7:12
um, Alcaraz plus 120, Sinner two to one, Djokovic plus 650, everybody else 18 to one or longer. Is your kind of approach wait and see here on the men's side? My, my approach is I wouldn't play...
7:24
I mean, it's Alcaraz and Sinner. I think they're playing in the finals. I, so I don't think there's a, there's a play on, in the f- in the outright market.
7:30
Um, and I was hoping for, the big theme for me, both on the men's and the ladies' side was, I was hoping for prices that I didn't get. So, like Alexander Bublik for instance, I'm like, "Oh boy, where is he at?" Right.
7:42
And he ends up in a, you know, he ends up in the Djokovic quarter with Jack Draper as well, um, and, uh, Alex de Minaur, just to name a few, which isn't the worst thing in the world, but those, it's, it's a top-heavy quarter, but even in the quarter he was only like plus 350.
7:58
So I'm like, "Well, I'm not playing that." I, there could've been a price that I would've played there, and will I play him in the outright at 40 to one?
8:05
No, I won't, 'cause I don't think he's winning the whole thing, as great, as great as he is on grass. But there was a lot of that, like Alexandrova on the ladies' side. What's the price?
8:12
Oh, it's not nearly as good as I thought it would be. Right, yeah. So they're kind of on it, and grass is tricky, as we've said many times. It's only a five-week season.
8:19
Wimbledon is 40% of the entire grass season, in other words, the fortnight of Wimbledon, so the data's not as robust. Usually I do one year and six month data.
8:28
With grass, you have to do two years and one year, 'cause there is no six month really of any robust nature, and you know how two-year data is. It's not very meaningful sometimes.
8:37
So you c- you look at it, but, you know, over the course of two weeks, you'll do better watching players get the knack for the grass than any data will show you on grass, my opinion.
8:51
Um, okay, I got two other questions for you on this. Yes, sir. So
8:55
hardest to handicap, uh, heading into the tournament, and then most variance within a tournament, is that al- uh, i- is the answer to both of those for you Wimbledon or- We don't-...
9:06
Australian Open beginning of the season? Is that tougher? Wimbledon still. Oh, still Wimbledon. Yeah. Okay. Because it's like, um, let's l- go play golf on glass now- Right, right, right...
9:16
let's, and then you tell me who's gonna win this. Is Australian Open the second though because- Yes... it's the beginning of s- okay, okay. Yeah. Okay.
9:20
It's a little, it's a little quirky 'cause unlike- Right, beginning of season... unlike golf, tennis season starts and it's like slam time. Yeah.
9:26
Yeah, so that would be second, but, um, and, and French and US Open are the best, traditionally speaking. But that's the problem with this is it's just a, it's more of a knack than anything to play on this grass.
9:37
And be mindful of, of upsets happen at Wimbledon, right? Like, this is- Upsets happen at Wimbledon. Uh, we've had wacky winners at Wimbledon, again, Vondrousova, your girl, two years ago, right? Yeah.
9:49
Kr- Krejickova last year. Um- Barbora. Barbora, correct. I know how much you love the name. [laughs] That's right.
9:56
Uh, and then the French Open is the most sort of favorite heavy where the, you know, clay gets the numbers right in the betting market, so the upsets are, i- in terms of match play, is, is the fewest traditionally- Okay, and then I-...
10:06
of the slams... I'm gonna pull a Gil question on you. If, if I told you it wasn't- Oh, my God... Alcaraz- [laughs]... Sinner, or Djokovic- He can't do that to me...
10:14
win- winning the men's side, who's winning the men's side, Gil? Um, let's just say Novak Djokovic for, for historical purposes. Oh, D- no, I wiped him off the board too. Oh, you did? Without the top three.
10:25
Oh, you wiped him off altogether. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You can't have, it's not Alcaraz, it's not Sinner, and it's not Djokovic. Who's winning? Alexan- I'll say Alexander Bublik in a- Ooh...
10:32
hilarious turn of events where a guy who, like, openly screams at clay, right? [laughs] "This stupid surface. Why do we play on this?"
10:40
Uh, and a guy who is prone to, uh, has a penchant for underhand serves when you least expect it. Ooh. Uh, he's a showman. Um, Kazakhstani. Uh, I will say him. Okay. All right, I like it. I'll say him, yeah.
10:52
Now, a showman for showman's sake or like Nick Kyrgios showman, like I'm quitting? He's, he's a less sinister Kyrgios. Okay, okay. I, I can get on board with that.
11:01
Yeah, he's, I, I think, I personally love watching him and, and laugh openly when he's playing at times. All right. Whereas Kyrgios, you always feel like he's one s- one corner away from throwing a tantrum. Right.
11:11
He, y- you're laughing until you're yelling. Yes. Yeah, I mean, there's been tournaments with Kyrgios where you're like, "Oh, boy, here it goes."
11:17
Like, I remember there was one in DC where you're like, "Yeah, no, the fans aren't safe. The ump's not safe. Nobody's safe."
11:23
Anyway, um, let's see if we can get, uh, a good start to Wimbledon in those seven picks, and again, we'll work on the, uh, the picks page to make sure it's all more streamlined. Uh, we gotta talk Malik Beasley, but first
11:36
MLB most wins, month of July, and we'll go through our nine-month history of this as well on the other side. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
11:45
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Your smartest NFL season bet starts now at vsin.com/subscribe. Was in San Francisco, uh, this weekend, uh, Kelly Bidlin, and, uh, you know what I ended up, uh, watching 75 episodes of, or, or 148 episodes of?
12:40
I can't really count that high. And, uh, you, you gotta leave time to watch 75 episodes of something. [laughs] Well, you know what it is? 'Cause Gracie is now 18 years old. You know what she's obsessed with? What?
12:48
Love Island. Oh, God. Have you heard of this show? Yes. Yeah, yeah. Oh, my God. What did, uh... Was it Jared Smith I saw posting this on Twitter? Some- one of the s- one of the sports books here in town threw it on.
13:01
When, when is it- Really? When is it on live? Sunday nights? Oh, I have no idea. It's just that they have it on every night. It's not like, you know, reality shows we think are, are weekly, right?
13:09
That's how we're metered to- Right... that's how we're conditioned to it. Dude, you can teach me so much about this, 'cause I feel like I see it on every streaming service.
13:15
I don't like, I don't really know what the show is. Oh. I don't know when it's on. I, I can't teach you that much.
13:19
All I know is that she, she asked me, Gracie asked me, she's like- Let me guess, it's hot people living on an island seeing if they'll work out or not. It's, yes, it's hot- [laughs]...
13:26
young men and women on an, on, on an island. First of all, they're in Fiji, but you never get to see anything of Fiji 'cause they're just in their little spot in Fiji. Oh, so maybe this is like a Baywatch situation.
13:36
They're not even there. And they keep bringing in new, what do they call them? Oh, I can't remember, but new hot people, right? To- Hot contestants... to mess up with the old hot peoples, couples, right?
13:47
And they're, they have, like, these challenges, and they basically eat all of each other's faces. [laughs] It's, it, it's, imagine what you grew up, what you were considered to be, like, soft porn-ish stuff.
13:58
This is way worse than that. [laughs] Anyway. Wait, wait, wait. Wait, so, so, so Gracie has to be 18 now to watch it? No, no, no. She just- Is that a household rule? No, no, no.
14:06
She just decided that it was a, w- by the way, it's gr- it, it, it's so different from me watching something like this with my parents. If it was with my parents, I'd be like, "Hello, so I'm gonna go now."
14:14
[laughs] Uh, right, I would want nowhere around my parents. Yeah. But she's so cool.
14:19
Like, you could just watch it with her, and she ha- she's so perfect and light with her comments, you know, about it, and it's so much fun watching with her, but it's, uh, it's just- Well, good...
14:28
the, the, it's on- Interesting bonding experience... it's on every single night. There's like 37 episodes a season of this. And I, I asked her, I go, "So who, what's the, who determines the winner?" That's crazy.
14:38
She goes, "It's just one couple standing at the end." I mean- And, like, fans vote on it and stuff. I guess I hadn't really thought about it all that much, but this is, like, the, uh...
14:46
What was that, remember that little, like, trivia game that was going on for e- or that was really popular for, like, a year, like HQ or something like that? Oh, right, right, right. It's that- On your phone...
14:54
during the pandemic... and they were doing it, like, every day. Yes. I think it started a little bit before the pandemic- Yeah...
14:59
and then it rolled, and you do this stuff every day, and you kinda thought back then, you're like, "Well, this is a game show," but, like, time doesn't matter anymore 'cause you can just put it on a phone.
15:06
Like reality TV shows, you don't need to do once a week 'cause we can just str- we just stream everything now, so whatever. Yeah. You do it, you do it throughout. It's incredible.
15:14
Um, ladies and gentlemen, no artful way to segue to- [laughs]... Major League Baseball most wins in m- [laughs] month by month. Trying to figure out- But we're gonna do it anyway... where I saw this video now.
15:23
Uh, June, once again, Astros, defending champion, repeat champs. Uh, the Astros at Caesars, by the way, for those asking, 33 to 1 pre-flop to win June. Not for one second did I consider them. 33 to 1 pre-flop at Caesars.
15:39
I don't know what they were at Circa, because when I saw the Tigers price at Circa, I was so m- I was so upset with it that I didn't, like, have the wherewithal to actually take a screenshot.
15:48
But the Astros, 33 to 1, they've clinched. There is one more day in June, but Rays, Dodgers, Brewers, none of them can catch them. Astros 19 and 7 is how they close the month of June, with a plus 32 run differential.
16:01
Their one run record in the month of June, and this is really all you have to n- all, all you have to know, 8 and 0.
16:07
If you go 8 and 0 in one run games in a month, in a calendar month, you're probably gonna win that month. 19 and 7. Rays were the only team that could have caught them at the end, 17 and 9.
16:17
Rays do have one game left tonight, but it'll be cosmetic. Dodgers ended up 17 and 10. They were sneaky to finish third. Brewers in fourth. Our Tigers, by the way, Kelly,
16:28
right now with one game l- one day left, and I don't know if this can change, but a, a very cosmetic, uncompetitive eighth. Yeah, what are they doing? Come on, I saw Scooball having another sick game.
16:39
Uh- It was just to rub it in our face. Look- Just throw him out there every night. Doesn't he know what's on the line? Come on. That's all you gotta do. It's like the World Series. Uh, Astros, oh, yeah, 33 to 1.
16:49
You didn't know Circa. Okay. I did not know Circa. Yeah. I just pulled up Caesars again. [laughs] Well, didn't know Circa. All right. By the way, does Circa have their July up yet? As of last night, they did not.
16:58
Oh, okay. That's a good point. Okay. Yeah, when I checked over the weekend, they did not as well. Yeah, they did, as of yesterday, as of last night, they did not.
17:04
Someone should tell, uh, Circa to, to look at the calendar. They were, I bet you it's today, though. Yeah. Weren't they like the day before every month? Right. All right, July. Moving to July. Now, here is the thing.
17:13
Oh, first of all, the history of us doing this, if you're just landing on this. We started doing this last year, so six months of a regular season last year, three months this year thus far.
17:21
The first three months last year, the first three months, we were an out away from cashing a 65 to 1, of cashing a 65 to 1 in March, April on the Guardians.
17:30
We were a game away, a win away from cashing in May on the Guardians last year, and then we won on the Astros in June last year, both 25 to 1 and 17 to 1, Circa and William Hill Caesars. Great first three months.
17:44
We thought, or at least I thought to myself, "Phew, I'm so great at this." The last six months, meaning the last three months of last year and the first three months of this year, haven't flirted with any of it.
17:55
So first three months, awesome. Last six months, not so good. So it'd be nice to bookend those six months with three good months here to end.
18:03
So July is the q- is the sprintiest of all of these months Because July has an All-Star break, obviously, in the middle of it.
18:12
So the first exercise that one ought to do in July specifically, because there are fewer games on account of that All-Star break, is count up the scheduled amount of games, period.
18:23
Before you get even, e- even get into who or which teams each team plays, just what's the number of games?
18:29
And when you do that exercise, uh, if we can pop that up on the board, what you end up coming up with is Toronto, Cleveland, the Angels, and the Mariners, Kelly, play 26 games.
18:42
Then you got a, a bunch of teams at 25, a bunch of teams at 24. Phillies and Pirates, the two Pennsylvania teams, only play 23. Now,
18:51
there is always, like, a three-game difference between top and bottom in any given month, but as you, as you sort of catch my drift here, the difference between 29 and 26 increment- incrementally less meaningful than the difference between 26 and 23.
19:05
So the first thing I wanna do in July with fewer games is, boy, having more games to play becomes that much more of an advantage. Might be imperceptible, but it is an advantage, um, 'cause it's not imperceptible to me.
19:19
So the teams that I considered, the teams that I considered, and it, this is, I mentioned this last week when we, when I sort of glanced at it.
19:27
I think of all the 10 months that we've done this, this is the hardest month so far, because there's no great team that has a super easy schedule, and I don't think we've really seen that before.
19:39
Or there's no very good team that has a super easy schedule. I considered the Guardians, who are one of those teams that had 26 games played, because the Guardians' schedule, Guardians at 16 to 1 at Caesars, super easy.
19:53
Three at the Cubs, three hosting the Tigers, three at Houston. But then listen, here's the, here's the rest of it. Are you ready for that? 'Cause those nine games, okay, relatively hard. Cubs, Tigers, Astros.
20:04
But then after that, Kelly, four at the White Sox, All-Star break, three versus the Athletics, four versus Baltimore, three at Kansas City, three at Colorado.
20:13
But you know why I can't, uh, you know why I can't put my money behind the Guardians? 'Cause I don't think they're any good. [laughs] And I'm an under- That's a problem...
20:20
I'm an under pre-flopper on the Guardians', uh, uh, as well. As you know from before the season, that was my favorite season win total play.
20:28
And the thing about the, uh, you know, the thing about the Guardians to me is they, they can't really hit. With apologies to José Ramírez, that, that lineup is not that good. The bullpen ain't all that good anymore.
20:38
This ain't the Guardians from last year that we backed. Uh, Cardinals considered, I considered at 28 to 1, pretty easy schedule.
20:47
Two at Pittsburgh, then Chicago Cubs, but then three versus Washington, then three versus Atlanta, then the All-Star break, three at Arizona, three at Colorado, four versus San Diego, three versus Miami.
20:57
So you have a Pittsburgh, Washington, Colorado, and Miami in there, but with the Cardinals, you know, kinda middling. They're kind of average at everything. Middling, hitting is up and down. Michaelis isn't very good.
21:10
Gray's okay. Liberto is decent. Bolande's average. Bullpen's okay-ish. Like, I mean, just that's their, that's the Cardinals. They're middling. How long has Michaelis, uh, pitched in this, uh, league for this long?
21:22
[laughs] While, while always just being, "Eh, he's okay." Like, I don't know. There's so many guys like that. It's incredible. Like, call up Jason Marquis. Got 50 million in the bank. [laughs] Like, all these players.
21:30
So the team that I settled on, it's kind of rando. I'm on the Seattle Mariners at 20 to 1, people. Let's go. Let's go. Uh, Mariners start with six games at home that they need to capitalize on.
21:44
Three versus the Royals, three versus the Pirates. Let's go. Let's get a, let's get a five and one there. Then it's at the Yankees, and then it's at Detroit. All-Star break, three versus Houston, three versus Milwaukee.
21:55
They close easy, seven out of eight, at the Angels, at the Athletics, and then one game against the Rangers.
22:02
Here's the art part of this, and I, I can tell you this from many, many years of baseball handicapping, both with Dr. Bob and without. The games before and right after the All-Star break can be kind of squirrely.
22:15
Teams are sort of packing it in before the break, and then they're slow to sort of- Mm-hmm... acclimate after.
22:19
So their hard part of that schedule cozies up to the All-Star break at the beginning, uh, I should say on the front side of it and on the back side of that. The easy games are on the outsides.
22:30
That is why I'm adding a little bit of art to this. I like that. They play 26 games. It's tied for the most. Seattle, 20 to 1 at Caesars.
22:37
Anxious to see what the price is at Circa, and at DraftKings, which didn't have them up yesterday either, if DraftKings chooses to do that. I- Seattle Mariners, your July pick. Like that thinking. Thank you, sir.
22:48
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23:15
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, um, that Jalen Ramsey trade, my question was: Well, what'd they trade for Jalen Ramsey? The answer is Minkah Fitzpatrick goes back to the Dolphins. Wow. Excuse me.
23:26
Uh, yeah, back to the Dolphins from the Steelers. So had a really g- nice career with the, uh, with the Dolphins beforehand, before becoming a Pittsburgh Steeler. Um, and so Ramsey is now a Steeler.
23:39
Fitzpatrick is a Dolphin, and now we are learning that Jonnu Smith is also going from the Dolphins to the Steelers. Yeah, [laughs] Jonnu Smith also. But we don't, we don't know if it's the same trade or not.
23:49
I, I believe it's a separate one. Uh, in a move that will see the two teams swap late-round picks, Smith is also getting a one-year, $12 million contract extension, according to his agent Okay, there you go.
24:02
Um, let's bring in Wes Reynolds once again. Wes Reynolds 1, uh, is where you can find him on Twitter, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line here with us, and of course co-host of Long Shots.
24:10
Before we get into football, 'cause I wanna get your reaction to the Finks- pa- uh, to the Fitzpatrick-Ramsey trade, and then, uh, have at least one of your props from the NFL betting guide.
24:18
But just to wrap up the golf question from before, if t- if the tennis world feels like Joao Fonseca is the next guy coming up after Sinner and Alcaraz as, as the great, the next great thing, golf, you said it's not necessarily Potgieter.
24:34
Who is it? Potgieter, who we were talking about l- at the end of last segment, he had made 5 of 14 cuts this year.
24:42
But two of those appearances are a win and a runner-up in a playoff, so, uh, you know, does have some win equity. But I don't think there's, like, one guy, Gil. I think there's a few guys.
24:51
It, it's, it's tough to say, like, you know, "Hey, watch out for Ludvig Aubert," because he has one already, and he's number 10 in the world golf rankings. But, you know, that's a guy that I think people point to.
25:02
It seems like there's a new guy every year. Kelly mentioned a couple. Yeah. You know, Luke Clanton, who got on the tour from PGA Tour U, which Ludvig did, uh, uh, the year before.
25:12
So there's a lot of young guys out there, and, and, but, but the thing is, you're very slow to, I think, crown these guys. Because for every single one that hits, there's a Ty Tryon, if you remember that name. Mm-hmm.
25:24
Remember the young prodigy Ty Tryon from many years ago, who never was able to stick and neighbor, ab- able to live up to, I think, those lofty expectations that, that he had.
25:35
So there's several of those, uh, of those guys, I think, out there around the world.
25:39
Trystan Lawrence, another young South African who's been in contention in a couple majors, including a couple weeks ago at Oakmont, is certainly somebody that I think has high profile as a young player.
25:49
Rasmus Hojgaard Petersen, the Dane, uh, uh, who plays mainly on the DP World Tour. But there's so many of these guys, Gil, uh, around the world. It, it's a shame we don't have them all on one tour in the game of golf.
26:02
Yeah. That's what the real shame of this whole thing is. But yeah, there's always new guys that are coming along the pike. Yeah, I would, I would br- I would throw out the Hojgaard brothers, too, right?
26:11
Rasmus and Nicolai probably in that group. But yeah, I think it is, it is tough, you know, W- Wes, 'cause you said, like, I think Ludvig is where you'd start that answer at.
26:19
But is it, I don't know, is he too qualified already? And I think Luke Clanton's probably on the other end, where he hasn't done anything yet. But you know what's the best indicator to answer this question?
26:29
Is how the sports books react. Yeah. 'Cause it, it is... I, I mean, you're not seeing Luke Clanton at 200 to 1, right, Wes? Like, we're seeing- Yeah... he's playing John Deere Classic this week.
26:37
I'm staring at 30 to 1 on him right now. The kid hasn't done anything on the PGA Tour yet. Well, I also feel like in golf- Yeah... with, with, like, the Zalatorises of the world- Yeah...
26:45
like, they, they get to a ceiling, and then they bang their head against the ceiling and can't quite get to the Scheffler. Or, or bang their back multiple times against the ceiling, yeah. [laughs] Or, or that.
26:52
Yeah, or can't get to the Scheffler, to McIlroy, uh, status of that. Um, okay, what about the Fitzpatrick-Ramsey trade? Your reaction to that, Wes.
27:01
Well, uh, you know, it is interesting, because we thought it was just gonna be player for player. But then apparently Jonnu Smith is, uh, thrown in here.
27:09
Jonnu Smith, by the way, was with Arthur Smith, the Steelers' offensive coordinator in Tennessee, was also with him in Atlanta.
27:16
So that move, like, makes sense from that standpoint, because sometimes players, you know, get attached with the coach and, you know, tend to, tend to flourish more under, uh, that particular coach.
27:25
But yeah, you usually don't see star corner that's a little bit older, like Ramsey, with Minkah Fitzpatrick, uh, you know, now [laughs] going back to Miami.
27:35
So, you know, Steelers, I guess, you know, they think that the, they think that they're right there, Gil. Yeah.
27:40
And, you know, I'm not sure necessarily that they are, but based on the moves that they're making, you know, a- acquiring Ramsey, acquiring DK Metcalf, acquiring Darius Slay, let alone Aaron Rodgers.
27:52
So the Steelers must think that they're right there. Uh, uh, you know, I think the Ravens are clearly the team to beat in that, in that AFC North.
28:00
And I think Cincinnati is certainly due for a bounce-back year, uh, after the, the injuries they had. They were disappointing. I think that they're a strong candidate to be a bounce back.
28:10
But, you know, the, the, the Steelers, they, they find ways somehow to get in the playoffs, you know, whether it's, you know, by accident or by defense.
28:18
I think it's gonna be mainly by defense if they get back, because that defense, you look up and down with T.J. Watt and, and, and company, that's a very good defense.
28:27
Uh, offensively, I don't know if that quarterback, how much more he has left in him, though. Well, let's just, before we move on, let me just ask this question, because I think it does need to be asked.
28:35
People like me, right, are dismissive of Aaron Rodgers. Like, "Oh my God, why do we think he's even good? It's been so long. He had the Achilles. I mean, why, why do we think he can return to glory?"
28:45
But would it be all that outrageous if he had one more good campaign in him? I guess it wouldn't be a shock.
28:54
Now, you don't expect that he's gonna put up, uh, you know, Mahomes or Burrow-type numbers, but, you know, could certainly be efficient. And, and especially they're gonna probably try to rely on that running game.
29:06
Uh, they've certainly tried to work to rebuild that offensive line there in Pittsburgh. So I don't know if it would be just a total shocker.
29:14
Like, it would be shocker if he's one of the top five passing leaders in the league- Yeah... or has one of the top five QBRs. I think that would be the shocker.
29:23
Not necessarily if they win games, if he's just like, eh, he's kinda okay, solid. But, you know, the running game and the defense and the special teams is why they win. Okay. Uh, NFL betting guide.
29:34
The VSiN NFL betting guide is coming out tomorrow. Um, give us a sense, 'cause all of us did some prop bets in there or gave out our, uh, the bets that we've made this off season.
29:43
Give us a sense of, uh, maybe your favorite of the bunch that you have. Uh, in terms of a win total, Gil? Uh, it c- whi- whichever way you wanna go. Win total or a prop bet- Well, okay... whatever, whichever way. Okay.
29:54
Well, well, one division that I did play was the AFC South, and Houston is the favorite. Uh, we know Tennessee is rebuilding. The Colts may be going with Daniel Jones. This is a transition.
30:06
Of course, uh, you know, new ownership with, uh, the late Jim Irsay's daughters taking over the reins.
30:11
But- I think the Jacksonville Jaguars, at about a little over three dollars, are a team you wanna watch in this division because I like the coaching that they have now. They get Liam Cohen from Tampa Bay.
30:23
Remember, Liam Cohen, several years ago, was on that Sean McVay staff for about a year with the Rams, was also in college. He was the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay last year.
30:32
And w- one thing I got wrong was Tampa Bay last year because I thought, "Okay, Dave Canales has gone to Carolina, right?
30:39
So Baker Mayfield, who is off his career year, he's gonna go into n- not, not necessarily a downward spiral, but he's certainly gonna decline."
30:47
Well, in comes Liam Cohen, and Baker Mayfield has his career year yet again for the second year in a row. So he's now coming to Jacksonville with a guy that's at a crossroads in his career, and that's Trevor Lawrence.
30:57
'Cause we've seen really good things out of Trevor Lawrence, and then we've seen him be really mediocre. So they are bringing, uh, him in as the head coach.
31:05
Also, uh, uh, someone, uh, the name escapes me right now, but from the Vikings staff, who was part of Sam Darnold's career year last year and his resurgence. So I think that offense is gonna, is gonna be much better.
31:18
You obviously add Travis Hunter to that mix, DeBrian Thomas, who was the best rookie receiver, even more so, uh, than Maserati Maure down in Arizona. Brian Thomas had the better numbers.
31:28
So I think this Jacksonville offense is gonna cook. Now, defensively, they're gonna be a little shaky.
31:33
This is a team you're probably gonna be betting a lot of overs week to week if you're betting totals on the NFL because they're gonna be in some shootouts. But I think the Jacksonville Jaguars are somebody to watch here.
31:44
Houston, the obvious favorite, and C.J. Stroud, look, he's gonna just keep getting better. But I don't think that Houston should be priced at near even money, almost odds on to win this division.
31:54
So I went with Jacksonville a little bit over three to one. In the seemingly never-ending off-season debate of who the worst team is in the NFL heading into the season, who you got? Saints, Giants, or Browns? Oof.
32:09
Uh, that, that, that's a toughie. That's a pick your poison. Uh, you know, the, the, the Saints, to me, I have no idea who their quarterback i, is, is going to be.
32:18
I just, you know, the fact that Derek Carr retired very late in the spring, and not that Derek was, you know, at the peak of his career necessarily, but I, I, I'm, I'm still a little bit, you know, weary of the s- or leery of the Saints.
32:32
Uh, Kellen Moore, by the way, takes over as the head coach from Philadelphia. Philadelphia as a team, I lean to their under wins just because that schedule they have is brutal. And they're at 11 and a half.
32:43
I think that I wrote that up for the betting guide. I think they're going under 11 because the entire offensive staff from Philadelphia, by the way, goes to New Orleans.
32:50
But not a lot of personnel to work with for the Saints right now. All right, Wes, um, we leave you with this. Walter Scott of The Whispers has passed away. Your favorite Whispers song of all time was?
33:01
Uh, I'm gonna say It's a Love Thing, but they d- Rock Steady was a strong comeback in 1987. LaReine and Babyface, of course, wrote and produced that. But, uh, man, Walter Scott, Yarbrough from Yarbrough and Peoples.
33:14
Yeah. Uh, uh, the hits sadly, uh, keep on going away, Gil. Wes Reynolds, the greatest. You can throw anything at him and he knows, he knows the answer to it. Gil, you're a, you're a Babyface fan, right? Oh my God, yes.
33:25
Are you kidding me? Y- Yes, I am kidding. [laughs] He lives here in Las Vegas, Kelly. Yeah, right. He plays a lot at the pubs. Yes, he does. I almost got Gil tickets once. It's a Love Thing.
33:36
Great, great, uh, choice there. Thank you, Wes. Appreciate it. Wes Reynolds, everybody, @wesreynolds1 on Twitter. We'll come back. Uh, so much to get to.
33:44
We'll update the tennis scores and what is left to play of my picks at Wimbledon. Coming up. [upbeat music]
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