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Jun 4, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | June 4, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | June 4, 2025
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34:48
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
[upbeat music] It is the Numbers Game here on a Wednesday. Matt Brown in for the one, the only Gil Alexander, alongside Kelly Bidlin. Rocking and rolling. All kinds of stuff happening here on this show. Got a lot going.
0:25
Talk some- A lot going... talk some punch face with John Anik a little bit later. That's right. Some ice soccer with Jonathan Davis. We- A bunch of threes in ice soccer.
0:33
[laughs] We got s- [laughs] We got some animal NASCAR with, with Chris Palica a little bit later. We got all kinds of stuff going on on the show. Ah. Things, things Matt Brown does to prep for the show.
0:43
Hey, listen, man, it's going to be fun. Of course, Jonathan Vontobel gonna step in and talk some NBA with us a little bit later as well, so an action-packed, stacked show. What? N- nothing fun for the NBA?
0:54
Like they used to, they used to put, uh, they used to- Poop ball. Yeah, I was gonna say, they used to score like in peach baskets. [laughs] Peach basket. There we go. Peach basket. Peach, peach basket throwing there.
1:04
[laughs] So I don't know, anyway. I didn't have anything... And see, look, you put me on the spot there- Yeah, I know... and I didn't have anything for that. Sorry.
1:09
I, I, I, I ruined your 30-minute prep session on that this morning. There you go. It was [laughs] it w- it's more like 45 minutes- [laughs]... just, just to let you know.
1:16
Uh, we do have the Stanley Cup Finals that are going to be happening and starting tonight. We'll talk, like we said, Jonathan Davis a little bit later.
1:23
If you're wondering, Edmonton Oilers are minus 135 now at, uh, DraftKings, at home here in game number one, plus 115. If you want the Panthers on the road as underdogs, six and a half the total there.
1:37
In that one, it is shaded towards the under. If you wanna play the puck line, the Oilers minus a goal and a half is at plus 180. So we will cover all of that with JD a little bit later.
1:48
Kelly and I are not going to sit here and try and pretend like we can give you a ton of insight into this one. That's why we bring on the experts. Uh, absolutely, that's why we bring on the experts.
1:55
Have you made a- any bets in the Stanley Cup Final- Yes... at all? Yes. You have? Oilers in five. Wow. Yeah. Getting frisky with it. It was just an Oilers in five. Oilers in five. Just so I have something to root for.
2:07
I'm, I'm li- well, I'm... So I'm gonna be involved too. Okay. I, I, I love JCon. Mm. I, I don't know that he de- necessarily swayed me over to a p- Okay... a particular side, so maybe Jonathan Davis can do that today.
2:18
But yeah, I mean, it's- You just wanna get something going... it's the Stanley Cup Final. Yeah. I'm gonna have something going. Come on. It's gonna be on a TV. It's gonna be on a TV. Right.
2:25
Like when you have multiple TVs, it's gonna be on a TV for sure. Yeah. So again, we will get that all taken care of here throughout the course of the show, so stick around as always.
2:35
I know Gil's not in here, but if you wanna tweet us at the show, you can, @MattBrownM2, @KellyBidlin. I would be remiss if I didn't mention yesterday, appreciate all of the outpouring, all of the love over my...
2:45
You know what? I, I was... It was called a monologue by somebody, so I'm not gonna say rant. I'm going to say monologue- That's exactly what it was... to begin the sh- yes, to begin the show.
2:51
That's, that's exactly what it was. Yeah, yeah. It was a monologue. Yeah, I'm not going to go with- Well done... with rant. It was kind of a rant. It was rant-ish. It was rant-ish.
2:57
It was rant-ish, but- But hey, it's the, it's the... You have to speak loudly for the people to hear, Matt. Yeah. Okay? And people need to hear those types of things about the future of sports betting.
3:06
So, uh, talked, talk about what was going on in Illinois. By the way, Derek Stevens did join the guys on For All The Money a little bit later in the day- Mm-hmm... to talk from the book standpoint on all that.
3:13
The, both of those clips are over on VSiN Live on the Twitter machine if you wanna take a look at those. But the big news yesterday, Kelly Bidlin, in the NBA side of things, and by the way, it has nothing to do [laughs]
3:24
with the finals, it is that Tom Thibodeau was fired by the New York Knicks. He led this Knicks team to back-to-back 51 seasons for the first time since 1995.
3:33
The direct quote, so forgive me as I look down at my computer, but I wanna make sure that I do this correctly, "Our organization is singularly focused on winning a championship for our fans."
3:42
This is Leon Rose, the team president. "The pursuit led us to the decision to inform Tom Thibodeau that we've decided to move in another direction.
3:50
We can't thank Tom enough for pouring his heart and soul into each and every day of being the New York Knicks head coach. Ultimately, we made the decision we feel is best for our organization moving forward.
4:00
Tom will always be a part of our Knicks family, and we truly wish him nothing but the best in the future."
4:06
So Kelly Bidlin, the New York Knicks found a way to dominate the news cycle yesterday, despite the fact that they didn't make it to the NBA Finals. But listen, it's the biggest market in the country, so I do understand.
4:17
Lots of takes that are coming out. Some people think it's foolish, some people think it was warranted.
4:21
And all I have to say in all of this is I don't know enough about the nuances that go into NB- that goes into NBA coaching, but what I can say is sometimes a fresh start is some- is what you need.
4:31
And you knew what you were getting when you hired Thibs. The way that he coaches, the style that he coaches is well documented. Everybody from you and I to anyone with eyes, you can look at the statistics on the page.
4:42
He runs his top five out there. He plays the top five more than anybody in the history of the league in the modern era. You know, that's since...
4:50
I'm gonna call the modern era, since we basically started resting players and making sure that they were fresh for the playoffs and the finals and stuff like that.
4:57
And you know, Kelly, I, I look at this and curious as to, as to what you think, that you can't make a big trade today. You can't overhaul this roster today.
5:10
But you can decide that you're gonna move in a new direction with the coach today. Mm.
5:14
And so I think the Knicks just looked at it and said, "Hey, listen, we're going to have to do something regardless in the off-season if we're really gonna make a push. We can't do any of that today.
5:23
But what we can do is change the philosophy, change the style, and change maybe the culture of what we have going on in that locker room. And so we're gonna move in a dif- different direction from a coaching standpoint."
5:33
Yeah, I mean, I think, I think you, you, you nailed it completely. Look, this was... I, I, I said a week ago, I said a couple weeks ago up here, I, I, I don't think that...
5:41
A couple things weren't out, uh, of possibilities, uh, yet, when that was the Knicks firing To- Tom Thibodeau or, or the Oklahoma City Thunder being involved in the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes.
5:52
I don't think any of those can be c- ruled out unless one of those teams wins the NBA Finals. So, um, that was Knicks losing the Eastern Conference Finals. I don't think this should be a surprise for, to anybody.
6:03
I, I guess I'm a little shocked at how stunned some of the New York media seems, because they were the ones re- reporting basically all season long, and especially heading into the playoffs, talking about him being on the hot seat.
6:14
And I think we've seen in the NBA now, at least in recent years- It just doesn't, it doesn't... Some of this doesn't matter. Some of these teams have made up their minds beforehand of what they're gonna do.
6:24
I mean, Mike Malone got ousted in Denver. Like, it w- Yeah... this is, this is not even close to the worst, you know, firing, [laughs] if we're gonna go there, of a head coach this season.
6:34
Mike Malone, who built Nikola Jokic into the MVP player that he is, got shown the door in Denver. So I, I don't know. I'm not really shocked with this.
6:42
I think you, you, uh, are absolutely on point with there's not much they can do with this roster right now, and I do not blame Thibs for that at all.
6:50
I think there is some front office and ownership issues that are always gonna be in the way when we st- talk about New York Knicks and the New York Knicks and the decisions that they make, um, with the roster.
7:00
He- Which will go into the next coach talk as well, right? Right. It will. Because you look here and you see, like, Malone is the short shot, and you see some of those guys, but, like, do they wanna work for Dolan?
7:08
And I mean that- Mm-hmm... that's going to be... Because Malone will get another job somewhere. Yes. Right? And, like, so he is not worried about getting a job.
7:15
He's not one of those coaches where he's gonna have to take the first thing that's offered to him, right?
7:19
It's gonna come down to some of these dudes are gonna go, "Man, it's kinda tempting, and it's New York, and it's a decent roster," and all the stuff like that, "but boy, I don't wanna have to deal with what's going on upstairs."
7:30
Yeah. Yeah, uh, well, absolutely, and a lot, a lot of these guys, a- and I know we were showing it before- Mm... on screen if you're watching at home, some of the, the ne- uh, next head coach odds that are out there.
7:39
A lot of these guys already have relationships [laughs] with the Knicks- Mm... that go back, [laughs] go back in the past. Yeah. And so we don't e- you don't even know if, uh, you wanna p- you wanna work there.
7:47
It, it, some of the past is gonna come into play, too, and then, and then I think you gotta step back and look at the roster and say, "How good... Is this roster good enough to win an NBA Finals?"
7:58
And I've got major questions about that right now, Matt. I mean, yes, you're gonna be in a weaker Eastern Conference next year.
8:04
The divide between the West and the East is gonna grow even bigger, but, uh, next year, a- and the Knicks should be still a top three team in the East, but is it good enough to go out there and beat an Oklahoma City Thunder team like we're talking about a- all this week?
8:17
And I don't even think they're close. Mm.
8:19
So, um, as far as these next head coach odds, I, I don't know how realistic it is, Matt, but there's one name I, I think that the Knicks sh- are starting with and should start with, and he's a guy that's been talked a lot about.
8:31
I mean, it's a big-name coach.
8:33
But he's a guy that's gotten a lot of credit for what he did with the Clippers this past season and the Celtics last year in different assi- uh, assistant and consulting roles, and that is Jeff Van Gundy.
8:43
I, I b- I mean, players, the outcry from players on the Clippers this year and the Celtics last year of how much Jeff Van Gundy came in and instantly helped both of those teams and helped get the Celtics to an NBA championship a year, uh, a year ago and, and the Clippers to as far as they did this year, that's one that I'm really interested to see [laughs] if that could possibly- Yeah...
9:02
be a return to New York.
9:03
For, for the radio audience out there, Malone plus 125, Johnny Bryant 4 to 1, Jay Wright, Mike Budenholzer, Rick Brunson all 15 to 1, Monty Williams, Taylor Jenkins, John Calipari, Dan Hurley all 20 to 1, and then Jeff Van Gundy at 25 to 1.
9:20
The only one that really stands out to me is Mike Malone, and that's the one I'd say is, is... I, I don't like that price at all. No. Me either.
9:26
Again, you have a guy that gets fired because he was arguing with the front office, like in Denver. Do you really wanna go into a situation where you know it's a difficult... I don't think...
9:35
Again, he's gonna get hired somebody, uh, somewhere else- Mm-hmm... anyway. It doesn't matter. He doesn't have to go to New York.
9:39
Do you wanna put yourself in a situation that you're going to be in maybe even more difficult than what was going on there in Denver?
9:46
And if you believe what you hear behind the scenes, it was because he kept butting heads with ownership and the GM and also the... That, that's, that's going to be the same situation- Yeah... for the, with the Knicks.
9:55
I, I mean, like, if you're a Knicks fan or a Knicks backer out there, hear, hear...
9:58
The good news is that, [laughs] look, the NBA's gotten so ridiculous with how quickly they fire coaches and, and tend to lean to players. There's a lot of quality names on this. I, I- Yeah...
10:07
mean, we're talking about multiple Coach of the Year winners that are out there looking for jobs. You went with Taylor Jenkins, Monty Williams, Mike Budenholzer, Mike Malone.
10:17
Like, I really can't blame you if you went with any of those. I think they could all do a good job. Yeah, absolutely. So we are, of course, watching what's going on over at Roland-Garros. Coco Gauff does advance.
10:27
She lost the first set in a tiebreaker to Madi Keys but then came back 6-4, 6-1 and wins. By the way, as we're walking in, Boisson takes it down. I know. I know. I actually got- Everyone giving her no chance.
10:40
As I was walking in, uh- Pop the champagne. Eat your croissants over there in France. Boisson moves on. As I was walking in, uh, she had just taken the first set, and I go, "Ah, Miraa and Dre have a live bet.
10:51
Let's go," and, uh, that, that did not work out well. She is celebrating with a Nutella crepe. It... Well, in the, in the monster croissants they got out there. Yeah. You know, the monster ones.
11:00
Uh, I did, I did get a message from Gil about, uh, 20 minutes ago I forgot [laughs] about.
11:05
Uh, this was, this goes back to April 17th, and I think, uh, Louise Boisson was the last leg of a massive parlay that was supposed to hit for Amanda.
11:13
He lost, uh, or she lost, and that, uh, that cost him a good amount of money, and now this is happening today at the French Open. Oh. I think he's losing his mind right now.
11:21
Uh, Carlos Alcaraz just waxed Tommy Paul 0-1 and 4 to reach the semis. So that's, uh- He's good... yeah, he's a, he's a pretty good [laughs] tennis player.
11:29
So we'll get, we'll hit the Major League Baseball slate whenever we come back and also get into some more NBA prop markets as well for the finals. It is a numbers game here on Wednesday.
11:39
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story.
11:58
They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on Beatin'.
12:09
Our number two a numbers game here on Beatin', Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander, at least for one and a half more days. I'm here for one more hour and then a full show tomorrow. I figured exactly that.
12:19
Out of here on Friday. That being said, I guess you can break everyone's heart and you also out of here on Friday. Yeah, we are both out here on Friday. Yeah. Scott Seidenberg will be holding things down Yeah.
12:28
So it's, uh- Now, uh, Sovereign is the- If you, if you want this duo, you better tune in tomorrow, 'cause that's, that's, that's the last you're getting of it here. That's right, yeah. Come on in.
12:35
I don't know why you said at least. Like, at most you're here for the next day and a half. Who knows? Yeah. Some, someone might change their mind- That's true... after today's show.
12:41
Yeah, this is [laughs] this is very, this is very true. [laughs] I could be done after the next segment for all I know. But, uh, not my show, you know, so I could be done after next show. That's right.
12:48
[laughs] They come in. It's like the big, like, that you get the horn and like the, the big hook, and they just drag me offstage like I'm at the Apollo or something like that. I'm just gonna shoot one text message, man.
12:55
Yeah. Actually, maybe more than that. Yeah. Probably more than that. [laughs] Dunzo. Get him on out of here. Bring someone from the back. Pinch hitter. Bring in the lefty. Rob Barrado. You know? Yeah.
13:03
M- Bobby Knuckles... mid, mid reliever. Bring in the lefty. Somebody sit in for me. All right, Chris Felica gonna join us here and talk all things Belmont. Gonna get into some college football with him as well.
13:12
I'm gonna put him on the spot. I, I know that wasn't part of the gig here, Kelly, but gonna put Chris on the spot, get his opinion on some of these quarterbacks as we enter the season here.
13:19
But let's start off with the Belmont. Chris, how excited are you for this one? I, I, I am, and there is no Triple Crown on the line. Mm.
13:26
But it's the first time in a dozen years, uh, you've got the first three finishers from the Kentucky Derby, uh, running in the Belmont.
13:33
And, uh, the Saratoga Race Track is o- one of my favorite places, uh, in the country.
13:38
Growing up in the Northeast, it was really, really cool last year to have the Belmont and that festival of racing, uh, which begins today as, as I'm sure your good friend Mike Somich will, uh, will, will let you know.
13:48
So we are racing today, tomorrow, Friday, and Saturday, uh, capped off by the Belmont. So I am excited. But, uh, did you guys bury the lead there? You guys are, you headed out early for the weekend.
13:57
Is that, is that a little, uh, spoiler for a, uh, a, a Long Shots live from, uh, from Oakmont next week? Oh, wouldn't that be fantastic? Hey. Yeah, that would, that would be great, Chris. No [laughs] fortunately not.
14:06
If you wanna drop a... Yeah, send, send some emails or something, buddy. You know, if you wanna get on the- We can just throw it out there on, I mean, I'll, I'll, I'll make it happen.
14:12
I'll just throw it out there that you guys are doing it, and, and w- and we'll let management know that. Yeah, I mean, look, we've got a...
14:17
We do have people going to the College World Series, so I mean, you know, maybe they could send us on a- No, it makes sense... you know, whatever. We'll- It would make sense.
14:21
No, take it off Friday because Lud- [laughs]... Lud- Ludacris is in town, Chris- [laughs]... so that makes a lot more sense, right?
14:26
[laughs] And it, and it's not even that he's going to the show, just gonna go hang with him. Like, Kelly and Luda go way back apparently. He was... Yeah, that's right. Yeah. Like, uh, you know, way back in the day.
14:33
Of course, catch Chris over on Fox Sports, the Bear Bets Podcast, and @ChrisFelica on the Twitter machine as well.
14:39
So you talk about the track there, Chris, and you know, some, there are gonna be some people who are tuning in right now that don't know the difference between this and any of the other races that are going on.
14:46
So what does Belmont bring differently to the table than what we've seen so far? Well, well, typically the, the Belmont Stakes- Mm-hmm...
14:52
the, the third race of the Triple Crown, is the longest at a mile and a half, usually run, uh, at Belmont Park. Uh, the Kentucky Derby's a mile and a quarter.
15:00
Uh, the Preakness Stakes is a little bit short, a mile and 3/16.
15:03
And, and now you're looking at a, a Belmont Stakes up at Saratoga, uh, at the classic distance of a mile and quarter, which I think is pretty good, uh, b- because m- the mile and a half race in the Belmont is really a, a distance that only exists for the purpose of the Belmont Stakes and the Triple Crown.
15:18
Uh, there's only one other graded stakes race, I believe, that r- is run at a mile and a half.
15:22
So, uh, the fact that it's gonna be a mile and a quarter, the same distance as the Derby, uh, it's a bit more of a truer test of, of, of racing. So, and, and it can play both, both way. It can play to speed horses.
15:34
It can play to stalkers. Uh, it can play to closers.
15:37
So, uh, it, it's a very fair distance and a very good test as to, uh, who ultimately will potentially win the, uh, the, the best two out of three here between Sovereignty and Journalism.
15:47
Chris, gi- given the, the length and the size of the field that we're dealing with this week, is there, is there a... How do you go about betting a race like this?
15:54
Is it completely different than when you're betting a race with 17 horses when it comes to, uh, you know, trifectas and stuff like that, that you're betting?
16:02
It is a little bit different, and I, I think the, the main difference is in the, the quality at the top of the field as opposed to the depth of the field. You, you've got the, the Derby winner, Sovereignty.
16:12
You've got the Preakness winner, Journalism. You got Baesa, who was third in the Derby. Uh, it's very unlikely someone other than one of those three horses is going to win.
16:22
So I, uh, the way I'm going to approach the race and the way I h- handicap a race like this is I'm going to have to just take a shot with one of these horses, stand firm, that's my pick, and maybe try and get the other one out of the trifecta.
16:37
Maybe you get Hill Road in there for the, uh, for a tri- spot in the trifecta. Maybe Rodriguez hangs on for a, uh, a spot in the trifecta.
16:44
So if you can, if you can pick the winner who, of those three horses that you like and then maybe throw one of those horses out of the trifecta for third, that's probably the way, the way to go.
16:53
But, uh, uh, I like Journalism in this race of the three horses.
16:56
I think the fact that he is, uh, the most versatile of the horses, I, I, I think the fact, uh, that he came out in the Preakness obviously, uh, in great shape, that was an unbelievable win that he had.
17:06
I'm a little, I was a little surprised he came out of it so well. Uh, but he looked so good on the track.
17:10
And I think maybe in the Derby he might have been a combination of moving a little too soon, hitting the front a little too soon, and then Sovereignty really pointing towards that race.
17:20
So if you, if you're asking me to pick between those two, uh, Sovereignty and Journalism, I do think Journalism at this distance, on this track, with this potential pace scenario of not a super fast, uh, pace up front, I do think Journalism has the edge on Saturday.
17:35
Chris, I'm glad you brought up the, the trifecta angle. We know everybody wants to, to bet a little to win a lot in, in these type of races.
17:41
And so you're gonna have the people come in, and they're gonna throw in Heart of Honor or Uncaged or whatever it might be- Mm-hmm... those big numbers like that. But
17:49
this race a little bit different from the Derby because there is a little bit more variance with the 20 horses, and what kind of start do you get, and can you maneuver through the giant pack?
17:57
And it, the, with only eight horses, and correct me if I'm wrong here, it actually does some of the longer shots a disservice, right? Because it actually does- Right... favor the horses that are- Yes...
18:05
just better, right? It takes some of the variance out. Yeah, and absolutely. Yeah.
18:09
Any, if you're, if you're leveling, evening out the playing field and taking some of the potential risk and track difficulties out, uh, odds are the better horses in the race are, are going to be there.
18:19
Uh, C- Crudo, a newcomer to the Triple Crown Trail, uh, owned by Bobby Flay, he's gonna be on the lead, but I don't think he classes up.
18:26
Uh, the horse Rodriguez, Bob Baffert's horse that scratched out of the Derby, uh, due to a foot issue, he is back.
18:31
He potentially Could fall into a spot where he maybe inherits the lead, but, uh, is he good enough to, to, to beat Journalism? Is he good enough to beat Sovereignty? I don't know.
18:42
Uh, the horse in the race that seems to be the, the now horse is Baiaisa. And you need to take kind of a, uh... I think there's two different approaches that you can take with Baiaisa.
18:52
I think you can take the approach that he has the most upside of any of these horses in the race, being that he's only raced five times and he's finished, uh, second out, out in the Santa Anita Derby.
19:02
He ran third in the, in the Kentucky Derby. He can improve off the five-week layoff and potentially get a, uh, his picture taken in the winner's circle.
19:10
Or you can take the point of view that, okay, he was 15 to 1 in a maiden race at O- at, uh, Santa Anita against Rodriguez, and he wasn't within 10 lengths of Rodriguez that day.
19:22
Uh, you can take the point of view that he was 14 to 1 in the Santa Anita Derby, and couldn't hold off Journalism, and Journalism went by despite having a terrible trip.
19:32
And then you've got the opinion of, okay, he was 15 to 1 or whatever it was in the Kentucky Derby, and he couldn't beat either Journalism or Sovereignty. So like, what, what, what...
19:41
Why would you bet him on Saturday at four to one or so with, like, a third of the odds that he was in those races? So it, it depends on whether you're a, a glass half empty or glass half full guy on Baiaisa.
19:52
I tend to lean towards, uh, fading him and trying to keep him out of the tri. Chris, anything now that... I know we're a few days out still, so anything in the fixed odds markets that you think is worth betting now?
20:04
And if not, is there... What, what are you gonna be waiting on? Is it Journalism, waiting on that to make that bet? Well, I saw some plus 175 out there on Journalism, uh, in, in the fixed market.
20:15
That was pri- I don't know if that was prior to the morning line getting posted or not. And, uh, eight to five was 160.
20:20
So if you can get 175 in a fixed market on Journalism, I would suggest you do that, because I don't, I don't think he's gonna drift up to, to, to nine to five or so.
20:29
I, I, I think eight to five is probably, uh, where he stays. I think Sovereignty probably takes a little bit of money, and I, and I think Baiaisa takes a little bit of money.
20:37
So I, I don't know how much, uh, Journalism's gonna drift up. In, in this race though, I don't think there's really anyone at a, at a, at a fixed price.
20:45
I, I don't think you're gonna see too much fluctuation, uh, in the, in the field. I've got Chris Fallica here. I'm not gonna let you get out of here without some college football questions.
20:53
So I gotta get a couple in- Perfect... for you, buddy, here. And we look at the Heisman market, and, and Arch Manning is your short shot in the Heisman market, Chris.
21:01
And you know, we have a very small sample size of Arch Manning.
21:04
Of course, we know the family, and we did see a little bit of him at Texas, but we don't have a lot to go with here, and we are just really going on narrative and feel and, and pedigree and all of that.
21:15
Is he the rightful short shot, or I mean- No... shouldn't it be Clubnick or Nussmeier or somebody, Al or somebody else? No, I, I don't think he should be the short shot at all. I mean, I don't- Yeah...
21:24
I don't know how you could possibly bet him at, at, at the price that, that he is.
21:29
I mean, now of course I say that, and if they go into Columbus week one and win, he's probably gonna take a little bit more money and, and his price is gonna come down. But we... Like, you, you put it great.
21:39
Like, we don't know, other than the fact that his name is Arch Manning, uh, we haven't seen a ton of him.
21:44
Uh, we, we don't know with, with the losses that they have on that team, uh, the schedule in the SEC, like, is he gonna be, uh, what we th- think that he could be?
21:52
Now by all reports, he's done, uh, the team loves him and he's a, a natural leader. But again, what happens, say, you, you brought up Clubnick, you brought up Nussmeier. Mm.
22:01
Uh, that game is massive, that opening week game, uh, between Clemson and LSU.
22:05
I don't know if Cade Clubnick can win the Heisman if Clemson loses to LSU, because what other opportunity are they really going to get to, uh, to really give him a marquee win?
22:16
W- winning the ACC I don't think is something that, uh, voters are gonna say, "Okay, we gotta give it to Cade Clubnick now."
22:23
Where on the flip side, if LSU goes up there and they lose a close game and LSU winds up, uh, winning the SEC and they beat Bama and they, and they beat Georgia and win all those other games against that schedule, he still has a path to win the Heisman Trophy.
22:35
So, uh, i- if, if you like Clubnick, then I think you probably have to bet him now, uh, and hope that he wins that game, because if he does win that game, that price is gonna go down.
22:45
Well, whereas if you like Nussmeier, maybe you wait a little bit because there probably is a loss or two on that LSU schedule, and they probably could still find their way to, uh, Atlanta for the SEC title game.
22:55
The guy that I did bet at 25 to 1 was Carson Beck. Mm. And I know people are gonna say, "Oh, Miami home," or whatever, but two years ago he had an unbelievable year.
23:03
Last year, injuries all up over the offensive line, wide receivers, him- so he was injured as well. A ton of dropped passes amongst that receiving corps.
23:13
Like, he's gonna be in an offense that had the, the Heisman runner-up or a third place finisher last year in Cam Ward.
23:18
He's got a great shot to bounce back, and if they can beat Notre Dame week one, uh, they have a really good chance of putting up a 10 and 2 or 11 and 1 type season and themselves get to Charlotte for the SEC title game.
23:27
He is Chris Fallica, Fox Sports, Bear Bets Podcast, @ChrisFallica over on the Twitter. Thanks so much for your time. I'm glad I asked the question, buddy, and good luck on everything this weekend. Absolutely.
23:37
Take care, guys. Have a great weekend. When we come back, let's go country clubbing, talk a little golf.
23:42
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:00
Numbers Game rolls on here on a Wednesday. Matt Brown, Kelly Bidlin. We will soon be joined by our very own Jonathan Von Tobel.
24:06
But a reminder, if you wanna bet the ponies out there, First Bet is the place to do it, firstbet.com, 1S-T-B-E-T.com/VSiN. Use promo code VSiN200. And when you do, you can get up to $200 in bonuses out there.
24:22
Again, you can make the bets in the app. You can watch the races right there in the app as well. We got the Belmont this weekend, so do not wait, firstbet.com/VSiN, promo code VSiN200.
24:33
Now here joining us on the desk, so kind to come in early before a Full two-hour shift just like we're about to put in. Jonathan Vontobel, how you doing, buddy? Uh, I'm good. Hello, America. Uh, I feel great.
24:46
Um, I saw Mission Impossible yesterday. The finals start tomorrow. What better time to be alive than now? What was the, what's the name of this Mission Impossible? The Final Reckoning. Oh, okay. Yeah.
24:54
So they let you know this is, this is it. Yeah. We're not rolling out- They let you know at the start... the 70-year-old actor, the actor. And then there's a great... And not spoilers, America. Yeah.
25:00
But there's a great point where somebody says to Ethan Hunt, "This is your final reckoning." It's like, "Oh, he said the thing." Oh. [laughs] Yeah. He said the thing.
25:07
Like, like old, like old, old school Bond stuff- Yeah. [laughs]... where they would, like, always, like, work in the cheesy stuff. And you're like, "Ah, got you." Yeah. "I see what you did right there." Yeah.
25:13
I'm gonna go hot take right away. Um, Mission Impossible movies are all a little overrated to me. Um- Give me Fast and the Furious over Mission Impossible any day. Ooh. Now that's hot. Ooh, that's a hot take.
25:21
That's, that's very, that's very hot. Ortega's losing his mind back there probably.
25:25
Um, a- as we stated in the Hardwood Handicappers group chat, rest in peace, um, M- Mission Impossibles four to seven I think are, like, the, the best ones.
25:33
If you're taking the franchise in totality, there's some shaky ones, but, like, Ghost Protocol on is very good. Okay. All right.
25:39
We, uh, we will talk basketball here in just a second, but Tom Cruise's best role ever was actually in Tropic Thunder. Yes. Oh, yeah. I don't, I, I don't know if anybody can disagree with that.
25:48
That was, that was his best performance in- That was one of the few movies where I did not know that was him until the credits at the end, and then they show him- Yeah. [laughs]... with his name next to him.
25:53
I was like, "Holy shit." Yeah. Yeah. I didn't realize it. You're right. That was just, that was an, an unbelievable performance with him. But yes, we are gonna talk basketball with our NBA expert, Jonathan Vontobel here.
26:01
And JVT, it's minus 700, right, in favor- Yeah... of the Thunder. 5 to 1-ish out there on the Pacers. Let's say you had infinite money. Is this priced correctly, and would you then be laying 700 with the Thunder?
26:15
No, and I think it's, like, a skosh too high, right? Mm. Like, I was expecting more in the range of, like, minus 600 or something like that. Mm-hmm.
26:21
Um, you know, I think I told you guys on Ready, Set, Bet over the weekend, I see minus 700 and I see a book that doesn't want any Thunder money, like, just general pileup.
26:27
And obviously that derives then to the other markets too, right? A public bettor's gonna look at, like, minus two and a half games and go, "I got, like, a buck 30? Like, nah, I don't wanna do that."
26:34
So I think this is a price that is repelling any Thunder money. So if I did have infinite money, I still wouldn't really be running to lay- Mm... uh, minus 700 with OKC at all.
26:44
All right, we'll stick with series, uh, first, and then we'll get to game one. We're seeing some game one movement, uh, a little bit. How did you go about attacking this?
26:51
Are y- side, total, what, what bets did you end up g- uh, settling on for the series? Sure.
26:54
For the, so for the series, just the result of the series, 'cause you do have some, like, some player props for the series as well. Um, the, what I did was two things. Uh, just bet, uh, exact...
27:02
or excuse me, a series to go five games, right? So that's about two to one.
27:06
Uh, it, it kind of removes, like, essentially what I'm thinking is they're gonna win the first two games, take one of the games in Indiana, and then of course close this thing back out in Oklahoma City, uh, in five.
27:16
I also did play exact results, so I have, uh, the gentleman sweep, so Thunder up 3-1, or excuse me, 3-0, Pacers win game four, and then Thunder win game five. So Thunder, Thunder, Thunder, Pacers, Thunder.
27:26
Oh, so you, you played- That is plus 625. Yes... you played that exact series of games? Yes. So I played both. Okay. All right.
27:30
So I played game, the series the last five games, and then I played the exact result as well, uh, in the gentleman sweep too, just to have some fun to, like, get a long shot to play. Sure. But yeah.
27:38
I, I was considering doing that, but actually going the Pacers game three- Three, yeah... which I'm guessing is a little bit shorter than what you bet. Yeah. Yeah, okay. It w- actually, I think it's exactly the same.
27:47
So a- and I think one of the things that I think is gonna work for me too is, like, the, the game three is gonna be so fascinating.
27:53
If they're going to be up two-nothing Oklahoma City, I'd venture a guess that despite the fact we're looking at them as nine-point favorites here, they're probably gonna be, like, a one and a half point underdog for game three, just because that's the way the market factors in those te- team down two-nothing going back home.
28:05
Mm-hmm. We'll see exactly what it is. That's a good call. That's a good call. You, you know what I'm saying? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
28:09
So the game three is gonna be pretty fascinating to see where it's priced to where the Pacers ultimately come out, but I, look, I, I really believe in Oklahoma City. I think there's some things you can point to.
28:16
It ties into some of these, uh, player props that I'm gonna talk about here, that you can look at the Pacers and say like, "Yeah, you know, historic victories," certain statistical anomalies where you're like, "Man," like, not that they're lucky to be here, but holy smokes have they pulled the rabbit out of the hat multiple times in this run to get to this point.
28:31
But still, I think two things to be true, also the most deserving team coming out of the Eastern Conference.
28:35
Yeah, just so I could have a sweat as well, a bet that we found yesterday, one of these markets, and it just takes the number down so dramatically if I actually think it's gonna play out this way.
28:43
You can play Thunder undefeated at home- Yeah... at minus 120. That's what Storm was talking about yesterday. I thought that was a very good one too. So- I mean, they've been unreal...
28:50
it's, so it's just one of those things, like, we, we found as we were digging around yesterday. We're like, "How can we play this alternatively?" Yeah. Just to be able to get some sort of sweat with all of that.
28:58
But let's head to game number one in which nine and a half everywhere except DraftKings. So DraftKings is at nine, nine and a half everywhere else except for DraftKings. The total's sitting 231, 231 in a half.
29:11
What do you expect to see in game number one? Uh, I think the Thunder are gonna be ripping and ready to go, and I think that this is gonna be a game where it's gonna be, to me, sidewise Thunder a pass.
29:20
And we've already moved here, so, you know, maybe just hold out. Like, th- these big numbers and these teams, and basketball in general, you're probably gonna be able to get under nine and a half once that game tips.
29:29
If, if Indiana comes out and hits, like, two threes- Yeah... like, you're gonna be in a position to get that. I, I feel b- strongly, I feel more strongly about the total. I bet this over 229 and a half.
29:36
Like you mentioned, we're starting to see that creep up. You'll probably get some buyback. What's that, you said is it up 231 and a half, two and a half? Yeah, we're at 231 and a half. Yeah. A lot of places.
29:43
'Cause I think what's gonna be interesting, and I still think 230 and a half is playable as well, the Thunder are going to be more than willing to play Indiana's pace.
29:51
They, they're going to, they're, they're able to run up and down the floor. They're able to get after these guys. When they get steals, they run back in the other direction to get those easy buckets.
30:00
I think this is gonna be a relatively quick pace in comparison, especially with what the Pacers just played.
30:04
If you look at that series against New York in totality, that was actually a Knicks series in terms of pace outside of a couple of games. Uh, hell, even game one in overtime only had 106 possessions.
30:13
So, like, that was a pretty slow pace overall. But I think this is gonna speed up.
30:17
I think the Thunder are going to let this Pacers team play the way they want, 'cause I think they're comfortable in, in playing in chaos as well.
30:22
So I feel more strongly about these games going over, especially at the beginning if you're getting that 229 and a half, 230 and a half. All right.
30:27
Let's go real geeky basketball for a bit, especially since I talked about the Knicks for six minutes- Sure... at the beginning of this show. So real geeky basketball. Who, what is...
30:34
How, how does this series end up playing out as far as we know how versatile the Thunder are, what are they gonna look to attack on the Indiana side?
30:42
Who gets played off the court perhaps some of, with some of the players that we're gonna see? Who's more of a factor in this series than when maybe we've seen in series past?
30:50
So I'll go pessimistic first, 'cause my, my angle coming into the series, and I've been texting you guys angrily, I've been trying to find Isaiah Hartenstein props so I can bet under for the series. Mm-hmm.
31:00
I think the... I don't think Isaiah Hartenstein has a place in this series for the Oklahoma City Thunder. We've seen his minutes diminish in the last three games of that series against Minnesota Timberwolves.
31:07
If you look statistically in the postseason when Hartenstein and Chet are on the floor together, the offense just isn't there. They're not particularly great on that end of the floor. They're great on defense.
31:15
They're just not good on offense. And you don't need to go big against Indiana. You just don't need it. Yep. You don't need to play both of your bigs.
31:20
They, their, their starting center average is four, less than five rebounds per game in this postseason. [laughs] Like, they don't need to do it.
31:26
Your top two rebounders are Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton, so you can play a single big like Chet Holmgren, feel comfortable doing it, and then go to your, some of your small ball lineups and again, feel comfortable with it.
31:35
So I think Isaiah Hartenstein is a guy that is going to get played out in this series. I'm looking to play his unders to start the series, and I'm looking for some series long stuff.
31:42
Last year they had so many different markets, like rebounds per game for the series, things like that, head-to-heads. I'm trying to find Hartenstein's stuff, but I can't really find it getting posted anywhere.
31:50
As far as what they're gonna attack, I think it ties into actually one of my series props that I have, too.
31:54
I, I am going to be very fascinated to see what the assist opportunities are gonna be like for Tyrese Haliburton. He is incredible in terms of facilitating his team.
32:02
Uh, obviously league leader in the postseason in terms of total assists. He's floating around, like, 152, uh, through 16 games now in the playoffs.
32:09
But if you look at who the Thunder have played and the three teams that they have played, Memphis, Minnesota, and Denver, all three of their assist-to-pass ratios or assist-to-pass rate have dropped dramatically in their series against OKC.
32:21
Denver being the, the biggest one, right? Denver led the league in the regular season in assist-to-pass rate. It was at a 10.4%. It was just 7% [laughs] in the series against OKC.
32:30
So in other words, they are cutting off, they're, they're staying at home. They're cutting off assist opportunities. They're not allowing guys to move the ball around.
32:36
So I think that's how they're gonna really start to do this, is they're going to make Tyrese Haliburton into either a useless passer or go ahead and outscore us, dude, if you can actually do that.
32:44
And I don't think that's gonna be the case. So that led me to, by the way... I bet Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to lead the series in assists at five to one.
32:50
Put a little bit on Jalen Williams at 66 to one as well to lead the series in assists. I think Haliburton is mispriced being that big of a favorite at minus 900.
32:58
You've seen a team cut off the opportunities for facilitation for these other opponents. I don't think why that would be any different here.
33:04
And the sneaky quick note, 'cause I mentioned this to you guys, if you look at the numbers for Indiana, uh, in terms of wide open attempts, they're actually doing a great job in limiting uncontested looks in this postseason.
33:15
But opponents are shooting just 34% on wide open attempts against Indiana throughout this postseason.
33:21
If water finds its level, the assist opportunities are gonna be more plentiful for Oklahoma City, which leads me again to the two stars.
33:27
Well, and e- even the Thunder's shooting is ba- I, you know, the shooting luck if we're gonna go there- Yeah... right? Indiana's been a little bit on the high side. Yeah. Thunder's been a little bit on the low side.
33:34
I joined you actually on that Shai bet today. I, I, I think that's... I think- Shai for sure is good at five to one. Yeah.
33:39
Yeah, at five to one, I think it's a good bet, especially if we're talking a shorter series, right? Yep. You get more value in some of these longer shots if we're talking a shorter series.
33:46
I'm only allowing you one time to, to put in your final prediction, and it is the Thunder win in X amount of games. Thunder in five. Five? Yes. All right. That'll be my official selection. There it is. Is there...
33:57
Why you, why you grinning? Yeah, it's, it, no, it's me too, but it's like, boy, the conversation more at this point is like, okay, are you closer to a sweep or six?
34:04
I'd be closer to six just because how bad the Thunder have played on the road. Okay. Like, I, I- Makes so much sense... they, they have really shown an inability. They haven't covered a road game.
34:11
So why would I believe that they're gonna be able to sweep? The, the, the other part that, like, I, I just can't... Like, we can't quantify, we're talking about shooting luck, right?
34:18
The Pacers have had that magic beans e- essence to them all playoffs, right? Yeah. Like, they're, they're winning games in ways that you can't fully explain. Yeah.
34:26
So yeah, you could give them maybe a half a game for that. He is Jonathan Von Tobel, co-host of Money Moves. You can catch him here in about 15 minutes, so be sure and stick around. @meJBT over on the Twitter machine.
34:36
Thank you, buddy, for stopping by. Thanks, Adam, for having me, guys. We're gonna put a bow on this one when we come back. [upbeat music]
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