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Jun 5, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | June 5, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | June 5, 2024
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45:42
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good morning, everybody.
0:10
Wednesday, June 5th edition of the Numbers Game live from downtown Las Vegas Bar, Canada at the D.
0:15
Lot to get to today with NBA finals, Stanley Cup finals talk as well, Major League Baseball, college baseball, French Open. We've got it all. Kelly Bidlin here.
0:24
I'm Ben Wilson in for Gil Alexander for one more day, and the, the eternal question we were all asking ourselves last night, Kelly, what, what do you do, what do you watch when there is literally nothing on except Major League Baseball, and you don't have any bets going?
0:35
Which, for me, all my bets were early last night. Oh, I sa- I, I, I see you out there. Uh, we, we were talking about in the back, Larry and I, were, uh, FX dropping the, uh, the clip to a show, right? Yeah.
0:45
That started last night. I didn't watch it.
0:46
I, as I told those guys, I got, I gotta, I'm one of those people these days that's gotta, like, let four or five episodes load up before I actually start it, 'cause if it's good, then I'm hooked. You wanna binge.
0:55
But I'm gonna forget about it. You know what I mean? I'm gonna forget about it three weeks later when we're in the heart- That's a good point... of the NBA finals. That's a good point.
1:01
So my point of that was I think that was pretty targeted. They knew exactly what da- what was going on- Uh-huh... sports-wise last night. [laughs] It's like, oh, this day- [laughs]... where there's literally nothing.
1:10
I watched the new, uh, 30 for 30 that came out on the Vancouver 2011 riots that happened- Yeah... after game seven of the Stanley Cup final. I thought it was fascinating.
1:16
Great doc I would recommend, and it really just resonated for me because we were basically the same age, Kelly, of all those rioters who then got convicted and who had their lives just totally turned upside down.
1:26
And I'm like, "What was I doing at 17?" Probably not any, like, probably not anything positive for- Yeah... society. Like, you c- you realize how easy that could have been anybody who was young in that situation.
1:37
Yeah, I did watch about 15 minutes of that as well. Yeah. And, uh, yeah, I, I, I, I didn't, I don't think I needed to watch any more of it 'cause I was kind of- You kinda got the gist.
1:44
[laughs] I was kind of beaten down with depression- It was sad... of, of that. Yeah. Yeah, like exactly what you said of like, man, like some of these people's lives were completely ruined.
1:52
And I'm not saying what they did was right or okay, but like you said, would I have been right there in the middle of it if I was out there? Yeah, probably. I think that's probably safe to say.
2:01
Like, they deserved all the punishment that happened, but you could al- like, it was, it made it very, very real and relatable to see. Yeah.
2:06
Oh, yeah, you had a few drinks in your system, and all of a sudden you're in downtown with thousands of people, and they're overturning cars, and next thing you know, your, your life is, uh, yeah, upended.
2:15
Anyway, that was how I spent my [laughs] Tuesday night, so, uh, f- fun. I do recommend that doc though. It was very, uh, it was very well done.
2:21
Uh, as far as what actually happened in the sports world yesterday, really the biggest thing in what was otherwise just a chalky French Open day, uh, Kelly, was the, uh, the news on Novak Djokovic.
2:30
We talked on air early in the morning when he officially withdrew from the tournament, then announces later in the day he will be having surgery today on a torn meniscus. So it wasn't just simply wear and tear, Kelly.
2:40
There was, uh, after the testing, real injury here.
2:43
And what more so than anything jumps out to me from this perspective on the betting front, now Djokovic is now very much up in the air his status for Wimbledon, which there's not that much of a run up in the grass court season.
2:53
It's the quickest season of all of the, the tennis calendar. Wimbledon's in essentially a month, and Djokovic is the third betting favorite right now, plus 225.
3:02
Then you have the Olympics right after that, which is back on the clay at Roland Garros. Djokovic, I just, uh, I just was looking at, uh, Bet US has these odds up.
3:10
He was 2-1 the second favorite to win the Olympics, and there's a lot of question marks now for really the w- the last of the big three who is, at least until a couple days ago, pretty much fully healthy and at least in close to, uh, top form, even though Djokovic had dropped a bit of a level.
3:25
Yeah, I don't wanna, I don't wanna steal your words 'cause we were talking about it lightly before the show, and you didn't say this, but, uh, starting to feel like the, uh, the end of the, the era?
3:34
It, it's, you can see the, you know, there, there is li- I would say for the non-big three players, like that light at the end of the tunnel is getting, uh, brighter and brighter. [laughs] Right. Yeah, yeah.
3:43
Like, you can see it now if you are a Alcaraz, Sinner, and you are like, "Yeah, you know what? I might not have to worry about these guys for too much longer."
3:50
It's a, it's a weird sobering reality though for us as tennis fans. Yeah.
3:54
Because when, you know, Federer retires, it was very, you know, sad, bittersweet, but you're like, "Well, there's still Nadal and there's Djokovic." Right. We still have- Exactly... two of the greats.
4:00
You have dominant players, yeah. And now Nadal, where, where he is at, we're, we're pretty close to Djokovic being the last one, and with this latest injury, you just don't know. This stuff can happen so quick.
4:11
The fact that Djokovic has had such a longevity, even to this point as a near 40-year-old, has been nothing short of remarkable. And now what's next? Yeah, I don't even...
4:19
And, and I mean, we- it's still a lot to learn on the, on this, the, the timetable for recovery and everything for him.
4:25
But, uh, I mean, geez, I, I would think you're, I would think you're skipping Wimbledon at least, and, and aren't you just focusing be- s- might as well stay on clay if you're him, right? Like, not even...
4:36
I, I know that's his, [laughs] not his best service, and he's much better on grass. But man, dealing through this type of injury, I, it's gonna be interesting.
4:43
I, I mean, what initial thoughts, do we see him at all this summer? I would, I would assume no Wimbledon. I would hold out that he, because the, the Olympics is the last thing for him on his- Yeah... ledger.
4:56
Drew Dinsick, who we had on yesterday, has made this point before on Gil's podcast of that, that might be the thing that actually matters to him the most this summer.
5:04
I would not put it past him to come back and at least give it a shot, uh, for Roland Garros at the Olympics, but- But you're not a doctor. I'm not a doctor. I have no idea. [laughs] That's just my guess.
5:15
Just play one on TV.
5:16
I'm the one who just, I'm the one who guessed that, uh, yeah, Federer would take a full year off and try to make, you know, try to rehab for Wimbledon, and instead he was like, "Yeah, actually, no, I'm done.
5:24
I'm retiring," at the end of Laver Cup, which nobody watches. Right. [laughs] And then he was like, but I mean, it's his tournament, so he, he decided to, uh, hang it up.
5:30
The one match going on right now, great match between Jasmine Paolini and Elena Rybakina in the women's quarterfinal. We did see the first two quarters yesterday. Iga Swiatek easily advancing, along with Coco Gauff.
5:40
Those two, uh, match up tomorrow, [laughs] and it is, uh, Swiatek minus 800, uh, against one of the top players in the world, Coco Gauff.
5:48
Uh, Swiatek, uh, rolling so far as they are on serve in the third set, though Rybakina up 3-2 in the third on Jasmine Paolini. Rybakina was a, a consensus minus 370 favorite today.
5:57
Second matchup, Mira Andreeva and Aryna Sabalenka. Sabalenka about a $5 favorite in that one as well.
6:03
If anybody's watching it at home, I need a, I need a screenshot from whenever you see Matt Brown, uh, in the crowd, 'cause he is there right now. Oh, really? That's what that says.
6:11
Matt Brown's tour across Europe continues. So he survived the, the windswept environs of Scotland golf And showed up at the French Open...
6:18
and just showed up with a, uh, probably an ascot and a, and a cigar at the French Open. I don't know. [laughs] I would, I, I would actually really like the picture of that, of that in, uh, France.
6:27
[laughs] Ascot, beret, I don't know, something like that. [laughs] Maybe all of the above, I don't know. For Matt. Maybe all of them, yeah. Uh, so on the Major League Baseball, as much as...
6:34
You know, that was really the one sport last night.
6:35
It was fortunately a, a good night for us, and all the bets were, were early we had, Kelly, so that's why it was a weird feeling being, like, 7:00 PM Pacific and have nothing, uh, nothing left to sweat.
6:43
But the big, big, big development, at least betting wise, I think overall now long term, was in the AL Cy Young race, where Luis Gil...
6:50
I don't know if Gil considers, uh, Luis Gil like a brother from another mother type deal, because I do think- We, yeah, we had that talk on this show already. Uh, yeah. [laughs] Oh, okay. There. I, I figured.
6:58
Uh- I'm struggling with a couple last names. I'm struggling with him, with his an- and Paez, uh, this year. Oh, yeah? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. You, you keep working on it then. Yeah, I'll keep working on it.
7:08
As a play-by-play guy, I'm here to, I'm here to help you out. Thanks, man.
7:10
So here from Katie Sharp, here are the, here are the two pitchers with a sub.65 ERA, 50 plus strikeouts, and 15 or fewer hits allowed in any seven game span since ERA became official in 1913.
7:23
The two are Jacob deGrom in 2021, NL Cy Young winner, and 2024, Luis Gil. That's a pretty impressive run as he had another splendid start last night. Yankees, uh, get a 3-1 win.
7:39
The other here, s- so the, the 44 and two-thirds innings pitched, it's 50 K's,.60 ERA,.67 WHIP, 1.82 WHIP. This from Underdog MLB. Lowest by a Yankee starting pitcher through 12 starts since 1985.
7:53
I mean, so we're- Wow... talking about not only is it a guy with just ridiculous video game numbers, but it's in a big market.
7:58
It's a team [laughs] that's playing really good baseball, the New York Yankees, and it's also a guy that, so as a result of that, he fits a storyline for a guy coming out of nowhere here.
8:05
And for bettors, it's enticing because he's had really, really long odds. Now, those got basically cut in half overnight.
8:10
He's down to 18 to 1, but still, this is a, a pitcher who is, you know, fifth, sixth on the odds board, depending on where you shop.
8:17
And it's not like any of these races, [laughs] especially AL Cy Young, by any means have, like, a, the cl- the most obvious clear-cut front runner where, sure, Tarik Skubal's the favorite, but do you really trust him to continue that form over a full 162 game season?
8:32
Yeah. I, I think the other thing with this is, like, we, we don't, we don't talk about this much, uh, 'cause I think there are...
8:38
I think we are at a point in Major League Baseball where there are stats that, that we can look at and we know are more important than others. But it's hard.
8:46
I, I think it's difficult when you get to the end of the season to, uh, ignore... Like, he, he's eight and one, right? Like, it's his record, his pi- his pitching record. There is that. Like, that is...
8:55
I, it's gonna be hard to ignore when you have these good pitchers on these great teams, and they're able to rack up those, those wins. Like, it is something that's tough to completely ignore at the end of a season.
9:03
So I, I don't know. It's gonna be, it's gonna be interesting.
9:05
Well, the, the, it's the thing, goes back to what I asked, uh, Mark Borchardt about when he was on a couple days ago, these pitchers that consistently, Justin Verlander was the topic of this, who consistently out-pitch their peripherals and their advanced stats.
9:16
Mm-hmm. So Verlander, five of the last six years, his ERA has been lower than his expected fielding independent pitching.
9:21
You know, and it kind of goes in to talk about there might be regression, but it doesn't mean, A, that that is doomed to happen in the, a per- a player's next start, and B, it doesn't mean [laughs] that in a specific season it is just doomed to fully regress all the way back to that mean.
9:34
So you look at Gil, for example, 178 BABIP, which is just unbelievably low. You would expect more balls in play that would fall for hits against him. 182 ERA, a 355 xFIP.
9:46
At the same time, he's striking over, out over 11 batters a nine, and p- you know, per nine inning stretch here. 11 Ks per nine. Really, really good. Mm-hmm. Guy is elite swing and miss stuff.
9:55
So am I really to say, just 'cause I, I reel off those numbers, uh, am I to say that this guy is just destined to, uh, to fall apart? There's no way you can continue the streak?
10:03
Uh, I, I don't know, and it's something that at least bears, you know, in a season where you don't have anybody approaching those sort of dominant numbers, and the, the couple guys who did were really on the NL side and are now starting to fall off a little bit, looking at, uh, Shota Imanaga, who's had a, a couple of bad starts now after his great, uh, beginning to the season.
10:21
That's why I look at it and go, it's at least reasonable when you have a guy who already ma- is, is already married into the, just the logic, uh, of narrative street, right?
10:29
With the big market and a really good team, that now if you at least believe that, okay, there's not any other pitcher in here that, that you really feel like is at just a, a whole other level above, and there's really nobody so far right now that has proven that you have name value, but not actually statistical value.
10:45
Like, it's not the worst, uh, it's not the worst thought in the world to have of, "Oh, this guy could actually do this." Yeah. I, I, I mean, I'll bring it back up with this.
10:52
I mean, Skubal, is that a, is that a fair price on him right now? I mean, it's June 5th. It's pl- he's plus 150. That's it. That's really, that's really, really low. Okay. I mean, it...
11:03
he's a v- outstanding pitcher, and- He's having a g- he's having a great season... he's having a great year. Yes. Um, I'm, I'm kind of of the camp on those guys.
11:09
Like, if I'm, if I'm making a bet on that, and it's not a guy who's, you know, completely proven. Skubal's been a... You know, he's been around. It's not like he's come out of nowhere.
11:16
But, uh, for pitchers like that who are having the career season, and it's June [laughs] and we are still not even yet halfway- Right... it's hard for me to buy into that price as opposed to a guy who's...
11:26
You know, look, like I said, I don't think Gil is gonna continue this, but, to that level, but it's still, it's 18 to 1.
11:31
It's a, it's a much longer price to, uh, to get, as much as that price did shorten and cut in half over the, uh, the last 24 hours. When we come back, still a lot to get to here on A Numbers Game.
11:40
We'll break down the NBA finals, a little more in depth with our senior NBA analyst, Jonathan Von Tobel. He stops by right after this.
11:46
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12:02
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12:33
As we're back on a numbers game, I had to kind of wing that read, Kelly, 'cause I was pulling up, uh, FanGraphs in incognito mode, and it made my computer just basically explode. Hey, you did a great job.
12:40
So, you know- Did a great job... did my best. Uh, Jonathan Tobel knows what it knows all about, uh, FanGraphs. I don't know in, in incognito mode or not, but anyway, a little peel behind the curtain here.
12:49
So we go out to our progressive guest line, uh, talking with JVT, who, uh, I was, we were talking yesterday, you know, Kelly and I, we, we discovered, uh, the Claim Jumper at, uh, Golden Nugget for some breakfast.
12:57
I don't know if, if JVT is, uh, if you are a, aware of that great spot, uh, downtown here in Vegas, or if you've also used FanGraphs in incognito mode.
13:04
I figured between the two, one of those you could relate to, so I was just taking my best guess here. Yeah. Uh, I haven't been to a Claim Jumper for a while. Uh, I didn't know that they were still around out here.
13:13
Neither did I until yesterday. Yeah. I didn't know it was a chain- Oh, no... until Ben Wilson told me that, so I- I'd last been to one-... know Ben Wilson... in Fresno in 2006, so that was the extent of my...
13:22
Yeah They used to have one up on like Charleston and Rampart up here that we used to go to all the time. Oh. Big fan of the tortilla soup. They have a good tortilla soup. All right. There we go.
13:28
We learned something today. See, that was my goal, learn something. There we go. And we did. Noted for next time. No- [laughs] Noted for next time.
13:33
All right, the, uh, the build up here to the NBA finals, which is just, you know, we, we, it feels like it's been forever here, JVT, almost a full week to, uh, to wait. We're one sleep away from it, uh, getting underway.
13:43
As far as the actual, uh, series price spreads, it's been pretty static since things first opened up. Boston minus six and a half for game one.
13:49
For the series, just over $2 favorites with, uh, Dallas in that, uh, plus 185 range.
13:54
As you've kind of ruminated over this, do- do- you know, dove deeper into the numbers here, what's been your biggest takeaway that maybe the general public is just missing about the series as a whole here coming in?
14:02
Uh, I, so I, I think maybe if we're going along that path, Ben, of like what are we missing, I wrote about this in the series preview, which is, and the way I phrased it w- in summation of the series preview, which was, I think Boston's dominance is kind of hiding in plain sight.
14:14
I think we're kind of over... We're, we're, we're kind of nitpicking with this run for Boston through the Eastern Conference Finals. When you look at this as a whole, this team was 12 and 2 straight up.
14:23
Yes, they were only seven and seven against the spread in their 14 games that they played, but one of their straight up losses was the Miami Heat's tying a franchise record for most threes made [laughs] in a single playoff game.
14:33
I think when you look at them from a net rating standpoint, the best non-garbage time net rating in the postseason by a mile, second place team was OKC with just plus 6.3, 6.4. Uh, Boston was plus 10.2.
14:45
Uh, this is a team that I think we have the collective such high expectations for, that when they don't meet market expectations and they just go seven and seven ATS, that there's this thought that they're struggling, but in reality I don't think they really are.
14:58
And the other thing that I took away from that I think that we the collective are kind of missing, each of the last two years, Boston has greatly struggled in one category that has led to them failing into the postseason.
15:08
That has been their performance in clutch time, right?
15:10
Game within five minutes, five or fewer, uh, excuse me, within five points, five or fewer minutes left to go, and they were 4-0 in those games that went to clutch time.
15:17
They had a plus 43.9 net rating in clutch minutes in those four games. So they answered that question. They've dominated their opponents statistically, and I think that's kind of what we're missing a bit.
15:27
I, I think that there is this thought that we head into the NBA finals, one team, Dallas, is performing at an extremely high level, and by expectations they are.
15:34
They're 12 and, what are they, 12 and four straight up, 11 and five against spread, something like that.
15:38
Uh, and they have covered at a very high clip, but I don't think we should forget that Boston has been pretty [laughs] darn good, and one of their losses was a historic performance that tied a franchise record for a single team.
15:49
The one thing I've been trying to, uh, dive a little bit deeper onto and figure out from a, from my own handicapping perspective is just the path for Dallas here, who they have faced and kind of the second, you know, leading scorers and how that compares with Boston, where, you know, if you look at some- Yeah...
16:01
of the productivity here for the, the opponents Dallas has faced, since the general narrative is, well, okay, much tougher path. You go through the West, it's just a gauntlet.
16:07
But how do you kind of stack up if you're comparing, say, a Jaylen Brown as a number two next to a Jayson Tatum, comparing him to really the lack of statistical performance that these other number twos, you can go back to, you know, how Karl-Anthony Towns struggled last series, and it even went deeper than that in series past, for those number twos against Dallas, and how that might change just the defensive formation that we see out of the Mavericks, considering they have been so good in, in overall advanced stats, yet I'm just, I can't totally get there as far as who they've actually faced and, and the number twos really forcing them out of their comfort zone.
16:40
Yeah. I, I think that's fair when you look at it, right, when you talk about... Like, go back to the Oklahoma City Thunder series, right?
16:44
Jaylen Williams did not perform up to the level that a lot of us know that he can perform.
16:47
From a, from a pure just shooting standpoint, Jaylen Will- Jaylen Williams was absent in terms of what he did in the regular season to what he did in that series against Dallas for the OKC Thunder.
16:57
For the Los Angeles Clippers, the number two was de facto number one because Paul George had to be the number one, 'cause Kawhi Leonard was hurt, and we know that James Harden, two games was great, the others he kind of disappeared here.
17:07
But I think if you zoom out even more, Ben, and you look at these opponents, what intrigues me and what you kind of alluded to there is this is different also.
17:13
When you think about the way Dallas got here, they have got- Got in here because their two centers, specifically Derek Lively, has been awesome. They have been dominant both defensively and offensively.
17:22
Think about the teams that they have faced though. Ivica Zubac at center. Chet Holmgren played center, right? He can shoot threes, but they also had Josh Giddey to play off of defensively.
17:30
Then you look at Rudy Gobert at center. Those are traditional centers, or at the very least guys in the front court you can play off of and hide your centers on, do whatever.
17:38
In this matchup, you're taking on a team that's gonna have a five that can shoot every single time when they're on the floor, whether it's Al Horford or Kristaps Porziņģis, you're gonna have five shooters on the floor at any one time when you're facing this team.
17:49
And to your point too, when you talk about defense, this is a team that I think is gonna be a little bit more challenging to defend for Dallas because you've got two wings that you gotta take care of in Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum.
18:00
You've got two very good back court pieces in Jrue Holiday and Derrick White that you have to defend as well. And this is a team that is going to hunt you mismatch-wise.
18:08
They'll go after Luka Dončić, they'll go after Kyrie Irving.
18:11
So I think everything, i- when you zoom out and you look at this, it's not a surprise to say, 'cause it's the NBA finals, but this is such a different, like, archetype of a team that Dallas is facing compared to the previous iterations of the squads they beat up to this point, and I think that's gonna provide them with a very big challenge.
18:27
Jonathan Vontobel with us right now on our Progressive Guest Line. Follow him @meJVT.
18:32
There's also the Kristaps Porziņģis piece that goes right into what you're talking about here where the report comes out yesterday, expected to be good to go suiting up for tomorrow.
18:39
Hasn't, we haven't seen any market movement yet on that. Kelly and I were talking about, you know, do we see a, a, you know, some late m- Boston money come in? Do we see that line get, uh, get up to seven tomorrow?
18:48
I'm not sure yet as far as the status there of, uh, Porziņģis here.
18:51
But what do you expect just in general, at least starting out game one with his props at his 6.3 rebounds per game there, and he's obviously in that third, fourth category, uh, for some of the series leader props in those markets as well.
19:03
And, uh, how... If there's anything worth betting on Porziņģis, is that even a, a place you would go to, or is he kind of a stay away with the status unknown?
19:10
No, I mean, I think, uh, I think, I think the market expected him to play. I think that's why you haven't seen that movement, right?
19:14
I think these numbers were hung with the expectation he was gonna be there for game one. Every indication was that was gonna be the case.
19:18
In fact, if that series against Indiana had gone longer, it sounded like he was gonna return there. So I think that the market had settled in because they knew that this was gonna happen.
19:26
I think he's huge for this series. I think when you go back to the point that we talked about, right? Again, playing a five that can shoot the way that he can.
19:33
Derek Lively and, and Daniel Gafford did not have to face a threat like him. He is a quicker and better shooter than Chet Holmgren when it just comes to release, his ability to get up.
19:40
Guys, go back to when they played post trade deadline March 1st. That first quarter, immediately in that game it was pick and pop, pick and pop, pick and pop. He had three three pointers made in that first quarter.
19:50
He ended up four of eight from the, from three point range in that game. He's gonna be huge.
19:54
He's going to force Derek Lively and Daniel Gafford to come out on the perimeter and defend, something they really have not had to do throughout this entire post-season. So I thought it was interesting.
20:02
This is something I bet with him. It- it's a long shot, but I think it's gonna be fun to sweat. By extension to that, I put a little on him at 20 to one to, to lead the series in three point makes.
20:10
I think a big part of their game plan is going to be using that pick and pop to get these guys out of the paint, because that has been such a big strength for the Dallas Mavericks.
20:18
And guys, you go back and you look at that March 1st matchup, if you're talking about pulling them out of the paint and how that worked for this team, you look at shots inside of 14 feet.
20:27
Well, the Boston Celtics in that game went a combined 26 of 38, 68.4% in that area of the floor because they were pulling those bigs out. They were able to get to the rim.
20:36
I think Porziņģis is gonna be a massive part of this game plan for the Boston Celtics game one and for the series. So I thought by that- Mm...
20:42
a little bit of a higher probability than 20 to one to lead the series in three point makes, so I, I took a little piece of him there. Nice little long shot there.
20:48
You can check out Jonathan Vontobel, his write-ups, not only for the series and the series price, but also for some of these series leader markets like we just talked about, Porziņģis 20 to one.
20:56
Anything else that you have, uh, you have bet already, whether it is those series leaders or just, uh, game one in general here?
21:02
Yes, I, I did lay one and a half, uh, w- games with the Boston Celtics in the series, uh, at Eva Bunny. I think that they are going to win the series. I think they can win this, uh, in six or fewer games.
21:10
One of the ones that I'm actually, when, when I'm done with you guys I'm gonna add to the portfolio that I wrote this up yesterday and I liked it a lot, so I wanted to add this.
21:17
Uh, Jaylen Brown and a Daniel Gafford head-to-head and who's gonna have more rebounds for the series? And I, I'm gonna bet Jaylen Brown here.
21:23
And I think what's really, really fun about this is first off, if we're gonna talk, you know, we had a series in which everybody talked about a, a particular center getting played off the floor.
21:31
I think Gafford's in danger of getting played off the floor- Yeah... in this series. We've already saw his minutes decrease, right? You know, in the, in the Clippers series, he averaged 18.
21:38
In the Timberwolves series, in the three games in which Derek Lively played, because remember he got hurt in one- Yep... missed another. He only averaged about 20.
21:44
I think that when you're talking about somebody who's gonna get his minutes replaced by Maxi Kleber, because they're going to need a small ball five at some point, it's Daniel Gafford. He's already not a good rebounder.
21:53
Jaylen Brown's gonna have a massive edge in terms of minutes, and he's a good rebounder for his position.
21:57
So head-to-head for the series, more rebounds, Jaylen Brown about minus 105 is gonna be something I'm gonna add as well. Oof, minus 105 as well. Not, uh, not bad.
22:04
Jonathan Vontobel, senior NBA analyst here at the network joining us on, uh, ANG. Follow him @meJVT. Uh, good stuff, man. I, it's gonna be... I'm, I'm just excited that we get game one finally- Yeah...
22:14
uh, here after all this time. So we will be checking in with you, uh, uh, very, very often. You can che- catch, uh, JVT on Vs in prime time as well, 6:00 to 9:00 PM Eastern, Monday through Friday with Tim Murray.
22:22
Good to see you, man. Thanks, guys. As we continue, Kelly, we'll, we'll dive, uh, dive deeper into, uh... We'll have more NBA finals thoughts here when we come back. Also, uh, some college baseball.
22:32
Super regional thoughts. I did make one bet. We can tee that up next. Oh, here we go. We did make a bet. We finally got odds out, so that's great.
22:37
We'll update you here on a, uh, French Open quarter that might see an upset. Jasmine Paolini serving for the match. We'll update you on that when we return. [upbeat music]The numbers told the story, they always do.
22:53
He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
22:59
Hour number two of a Numbers Game right here on VSiN from downtown Las Vegas, and our, our setup here, it's Bar Canada at the D. I'm Ben Wilson. One more day in for Gil Alexander, who's off the rest of the week.
23:10
Kelly Bittling, though, is here. We're watching live French Open. We have the Memorial starting tomorrow, which we're gonna break down in a second. Also tomorrow, NBA Finals gets underway.
23:19
College baseball Super Regionals will start later this week, so a lot for us to, uh, to get to here and kind of build up to, Kelly, with, uh, with, with a couple of dead, uh, so to speak, sports betting days here with, uh, this hour.
23:29
Matt Grissom coming up in a half hour. He'll break down all the Super Regionals. I do have one bet I've made there on a dog in the Supers for their series price. Jason Weingarten on Major League Baseball.
23:37
Uh, he has, uh, as we're, we're teasing this here, Kelly, he's got a AL Rookie of the Year bet, uh, that he, uh, has been talking about here for some time, that he will reveal to us in a little bit, see what he's betting on Major League Baseball as well today.
23:49
I did get one question here, uh, from Brian, Kelly, asking, "Is it a good bet, is it a good bet to make Luka Dončić to record a double-double every game of the NBA Finals?" He's minus 205 game one.
23:58
DK is offering plus 550, which is an interesting thought, because you would figure Dončić, he'll be a over $2 favorite in every game to record a double-double.
24:06
I just don't know that the math checks out, and even if you assume this only goes five games and you put in minus 205 on a Moneyline parlay, you're getting, it's like plus 670. So- Yeah...
24:16
uh, you want a little more bang for your buck, and that's, uh, that's only if the series goes five. If r- if it goes six, you're talking minus, or you're talking, like, plus 880, nine to one. Yeah.
24:24
So probably just roll that over, as much as we, uh, you know, as much as that's not sexy, but thought that's a good question, though.
24:30
Yeah, I know there's, uh, I know there were some shops out there, and I don't know if some of these are, like, parlayable, but, like, you could also play, uh...
24:36
Parlayable, I also don't know if that's a word, but I'm- I think that is... I've used it plenty of times before on the air. [laughs] Clark Kellogg, Clark Kellogg would be proud of you. [laughs] Parlayable.
24:43
Um, the, I know there's some shops where you could, you could do, like, series averages and stuff like that- Yeah...
24:49
and you can, like, ladder down on 'em, so you could, you know, maybe parlay, like, over four and a half assists in rebounds or something for the entirety- Yeah... of the series. So.
24:58
And you're, you know, you know, you're gonna g- it's still gonna be, you know, minus two, uh- uh, minus 150 or minus $2- Right... or something like, I don't even know what, what the odds are set at.
25:07
But I- I've heard a couple people discussing those. I think with Luka and Tatum, there are a couple of those you could, you could get a little frisky with if you wanted to. I think that makes sense, yeah.
25:17
I s- it just leads into my jealousy of the, where you're able to parlay- Yeah... these, like, wild things. Like, I was
25:22
tr- trying to find parlayable, uh, books for Super Regional prices 'cause y- we have a lot of, there were a lot of, uh, Cinderellas that made it, combined with a lot of the heavyweights, so you've got some pretty, pretty tough to bet single series on their own.
25:35
You know, we joked about Tennessee yesterday being a minus 1,000 favorite, and I was looking to fin- you know, could I parlay, like, A&M in a series price, and none of the books here let you do it, so oh well.
25:43
Let's hit that real quickly, you, 'cause you do have a bet here. You, you do have a bet in College World Series. Yeah, uh, Florida. Pl- I found that plus 172, uh, Westgate with the best offering on that.
25:52
I, I believe there are other books if you shop around, you can find as good as plus 162 in the market. DraftKings plus 135. I, I wouldn't play this anywhere, um, anywhere i- at that range.
26:02
It'd be, you know, plus 150 or, or better I would need to have to make that play where... And, uh, shout out to, uh, Trip Tepper, one of our, our loyal viewers who, uh, who had a, has a Florida 70 to 1 ticket- Whoo...
26:12
to win it all that he made right before the tournament got underway. So, uh, with how they, they advanced as a three seed, they were the, arguably the last team in, certainly one of the last four teams in.
26:23
Uh, but that is one I do like over Clemson. I thought Clems- Clemson really played with fire in their regional.
26:27
They won two of the three games by a single run, and they were a team that really relied on the long ball, over 100 homers hit, which is 15th out of the 64 NCAA tournament teams, but they were just 32nd in WRC+.
26:39
That's a, a stat we get courtesy of collegebaseballinsiders.com. Matt Grissom, one of those contributors, will join us here in a little bit on the show.
26:46
But with the combination of that, the, all the close games they've played this season, it wasn't just the regional, this extended to the regular season.
26:53
Having a freshman as your number one pitcher who's been awesome, Aiden Knack. I just wonder how he holds up in an environment like this now in a Super Regional, who has a 296 ERA, a very, very good freshman season.
27:03
But against now red hot Florida team, who you always beware, Kelly, the, the SEC team who had high preseason expectations that fell flat on their face through the regular season, limped in, and now is catching fire.
27:15
I still have arguably the most, the most exciting player to watch in college baseball, Jack Cagliano, is a, a two-way guy who's, uh, his numbers this year, 414 average, 30 homers- Yeah, that's not bad... for Cagliano.
27:24
It's not bad. And also, he's their Friday night starter. So, uh, it's a also a situation where their head coach Kevin Sullivan back to where he was a former assistant at, at Clemson there.
27:34
Uh, 10 years in the Supers out of 17 for O'Sullivan and Florida. Last year's College World Series runners-up. So Florida, uh, plus 172, the bet for me.
27:43
Uh, shop around, try to find that, uh, you can find that over plus 150 at a number of shops. Uh, it is, it is getting bet, though. It's down to plus 135 in some places.
27:51
Yeah, I tried to, uh, wanted to set you up to talk to that. I was trying to figure out if I could find anywhere where you could parlay these Super Regional series prices. My bets, I think, I- I don't think so, though.
27:59
I, all the books that I just tried, East Coast, uh, sorry. Think you're S- I w- we'll ask, uh, we'll ask Matt on that when he comes on, 'cause I know- Yeah... he parlay, he did some parlays with regional winners.
28:09
Oh, okay. And he was able- Yeah... now Matt's, there's some few outs and he's in Arkansas, but, uh, we'll ask Matt on that because I think he, he would know. Yeah, I just tried a few of the big ones.
28:17
I, uh, look, this is where, where betting manners and your friends have to come into play. I hope you win your bet, Ben, but I'm not gonna be that upset if, uh, the Gators lose. Well, shocking. You know?
28:25
It's Florid- Florida State, the noted Florida State alum- I, I-... podcast... I'm rooting for you to win your bet first, though. We're rooting for that first. No, I know. I'm aware. I don't have money on the other side.
28:32
You shouldn't, you shouldn't ha- you shouldn't have to root for, you know, Florida to win. Plus, like, it's never bad watching Clemson go down either, so yeah. Right. Right. There, there's also that too.
28:41
Yeah, you, you know, allegiances all over the place. Uh, we'll talk more college baseball in a little bit. It is a good golf week though, the Memorial. Great golf week. Yeah. Great golf week.
28:50
Fresh episode of Long Shot's out right now for the deeper dive here, Kelly with Wes Reynolds. Uh, as we will see, a- after last year was a, a playoff, Victor Hovland with a really exciting win in this.
28:59
We've had some great moments at the Memorial over the years, uh, Kelly, and, uh, now here we go. It's, uh, it's, it's a purse up to 4 million, and a very, very, um, highly touted event every single year.
29:10
Jack Nicklaus, uh, Jack Nicklaus' club, basically, at, uh, the, at Murfield Village, where Jack's had so many great memories there.
29:17
So where did you start just, uh, from the, the, you know, the general handicapping perspective here this week on a tournament that has a whole lot of big names in it? Yeah, it, it does. Big time event.
29:25
We're an elevated field, so we are, last check, 73 players, uh, in this field. This will be, uh, we got one of...
29:31
With, this is one of three this year with an interesting cut line, so it is, it's one of these elevated events. There is a cut line, though.
29:37
It is gonna be top 50 in ties, and then also if you're 10 shots within the lead. So [laughs] it could be top 50 ti- it could be the bulk of the field may be hit that.
29:45
We've had, yeah, we've had that a couple times, right, where- Yeah, we've had it a couple ti- we've had a couple times. Honestly, Ben, more guys have ended up getting cut than I think I expected.
29:51
Um, so it's always, it's always interesting trying to get a feel for that in the first year of them doing it.
29:56
So I, m- big, big thing, whether you're playing DFS betting this week, keep that in mind for sure, um, of what that cut line is at. Uh, we're at Murfield Village. This is my, one of my favorite courses.
30:07
I, I was, we were talking about it yesterday, Ben. I actually think this might be, like, I love the players. This might be my f- my favorite tournament, like, of the non-majors to watch at.
30:17
There's always, there's- It's just- And you think about the drama we've had over the years. Yes. Whether it was, remember where Rahm tests positive for COVID? It was crazy, yeah. At, with a huge lead in round three.
30:26
I wanna bet because of that, yeah. Yeah, Cantlay wins as a result, or the- Had no business winning that ever. No business... at the, and Cantlay wins in a playoff over Collin Mor- [laughs] Morikawa.
30:33
Uh, the, the playoff last year, Denny McCarthy has the great run, gets hot with the putter, and, uh, Victor Hovland ends up, uh, pulling it out in a playoff. Th- those are just some of the recent ones.
30:41
Tiger Woods with five championships at this, uh, this event all time. So yeah, you're right, it's one o- on- one of the more underrated events as far as, uh, consistently great finishes.
30:48
Yeah, and if you're, uh, if you're handicapping on your own this week, this is what you're looking at.
30:51
Fifth longest course on tour, highest missed p- uh, fairway penalty on tour, fifth smallest green, four-inch rough is what these guys are gonna be dealing with.
31:00
Um, one of the toughest short games, uh, tests i- in, uh, on the PGA tour. Uh, second toughest course behind Augusta National to gain strokes around the green on. You've got 12 holes with water in play.
31:12
Uh, so basically, this is a really tough course to play at.
31:15
Right now, odds board, Scottie Scheffler plus 360, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy nine to one, Morikawa 14 to one, Victor Hovland 16 to one, everybody else 25 to one or longer.
31:26
Uh, did big renovations here a few years ago. It has gotten much tougher since they did that. Um, I think a couple things that you need to keep in mind, par five scoring absolutely crucial here.
31:37
They, uh, they, basically the only, the four par fives basically the only holes on the course that play under par. So it was something that I really, really factored in heavily this week, um, was par five scoring.
31:46
Off the tee, uh, this is, we've added length, uh, almost every year here. Jack has a, just to kind of keep up with where the game, where the g- where the current state of the game's at.
31:56
So really important strokes gained off the tee. I dialed back a little bit how much I was factoring in distance this year. Accuracy more important than distance. Distance matters here. It helps here.
32:05
G- uh, greens are all often firm and fast. Balls are gonna, uh, approach shots are gonna hit the green and run off a lot of times. Uh, but you gotta be hitting it playing from the fairway.
32:13
If you're playing it out of the rough consistently through the week, it is brutal. Um, so really look for those a- uh, accuracy off the tee, and then you gotta be great on approach.
32:21
This is a, a, a massive, massive second, uh, shot test course.
32:25
You've got over fif- about 50% of your approach shots coming from 175 yards or longer, so you can look for guys with g- good long irons or long off the tee to help set, set you up. You gotta be looking at one of those.
32:37
Uh, for me this week, the only problem with these, with these elevated events, Ben, you get the l- the shorter field. I think it's harder to find b- as many bets as you like.
32:46
Um, I'll start with my favorites, though, right... I went right back to Xander Schauffele top 10. I, I don't think we, we haven't seen this guy get phased by losing in big moments.
32:54
I don't really think we're gonna see him get phased after coming off of a win. Uh, he's got great history here at the course. T24, T18, T9, T18, all his last four year, uh, four starts at this tournament.
33:05
I've got Scheffler and Schauffele as by far the two best players in this field. Rory McIlroy coming in third for me as kind of overall rankings. Now he's teed up, Xander's teed up 12 times.
33:14
He's got nine top 10s in those finishes. Collin Morikawa, I feel like the entire golf betting world is on Morikawa this week. I couldn't ignore where it, where he's at, though.
33:23
He feels like he's getting on, getting on a heater here right now, and this is the time to jump on him with a guy who has played well here before. He won the Workday, uh, in 2020.
33:32
Remember when they played the back-to-back tournaments here ag- coming out of COVID? Uh, he's got an ideal kind of player profile.
33:37
He, last 12 rounds, eighth off the tee, uh, first in good drives gains, 24th on approach, 19th in par five scoring, fifth around the greens. Kinda, and the putting's been a lot better for him here recently.
33:48
So really like him this week. Uh, was fourth at Charles Schwab, fourth at PGA, has been really hot here recently. So I did play him in the outright market, and then I played him in a top 10.
33:57
It was top 10s on Xander and Morikawa are my biggest bets, uh, by far. I like Si Woo Kim and I like Keegan Bradley this week.
34:04
I'm running out of time, so I don't got time to break down fully, but Si Woo Kim has traditionally played this course very, very well. Um, and yes, these are a couple of, uh, the Kelly classic golfers, but- They are.
34:13
Yeah, they are. [laughs] I expect you to have them every week. I love these two. Keegan's been playing a lot better recently. Those have great off the tee numbers.
34:19
Didn't, I only went with an outright with Justin Thomas, but I do think this is a week we could say, uh, see JT spike. Yeah, we'll, we'll recap your bets, uh- Yeah... as well later on in the show.
34:27
Up next, we'll see if Jason Weingarten has any golf bets this week. We'll also dive deep into some of the futures markets and award markets in Major League Baseball up next on The Numbers Game.
34:36
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35:26
As we're back on and numbers game, ready to talk some college baseball because super regionals, not only have they been set, Kelly, for a couple days, but we finally got odds that populated the markets, uh, right as we were going off air yesterday.
35:36
Finally started to hit everywhere, which is great. And, uh, now we have some bets we can fire on. We welcome in our guy, Matt Grissom, who joins us on our progressive guest line.
35:44
Does great work with the collegebaseballinsiders.com team. We've been citing their numbers a lot here over the last week or so, breaking down regionals and supers.
35:51
Matt, right now, somewhere in the, uh, Florida Panhandle, which I'm, I'm so glad we can have this conversation, Kelly, because as a proud University of Missouri graduate, I was always stupefied by the number of my friends who would make the nine-hour drive down and then, like, sit by a pool somewhere in the Florida Panhandle.
36:05
Matt has done the same exact thing driving from Arkansas, so, uh, f- first off, great to see you, Matt. Please explain the- Yeah...
36:11
logic behind this, 'cause I'm, I've always been fascinated, and I'm glad we get to have the conversation again. I don't know. I think there's some allure of having the beach 25 yards away. But yeah, we're pool people.
36:24
I don't, I don't mind going to the beach. We took our boys crab hunting last night. But yeah, I would just rather sit by a pool and, and sip good drinks than sit down at the beach, get sand all over you.
36:36
I don't, uh, that may be bougie- That's fair, man... but, uh, yeah, give me a pool.
36:41
I think it always starts with the good intention of going to the beach, but then you, if there's a pool nearby, you always end up at the pool. 'Cause yeah- Right, yeah...
36:47
who needs to deal with all that sand and then sludge and goo and- You gotta walk past the pool-... tough walk. Yeah... to get to the beach. I'm here. Let's plop down and- That is true... and waste eight hours. Oh, waste.
36:58
[laughs] But, you know. Well, at least you were productive.
37:01
I know you were working on your, uh, super, super regional betting guide that is going to be dropping soon, while you were working at the pool, so, uh, so props to you on that. Always.
37:08
Uh, I, it's fair to say, right, th- this regional is crazy as from, from when you and I have been covering this stuff, we can remember all the upsets.
37:14
You had bunch of three seeds advance, a four seed in Evansville, and it's, it's so f- it's okay and fair to say, right, like, especially for me, I'm sure for you, made it very, very frustrating from us as betters who are accustomed to not seeing this amount of total carnage and chaos.
37:29
I know for me, like Oklahoma was a great example. You get them past the, the big bad, uh, potential, the potential sleeper team in Duke, and I'm like, "Sweet, we're through to the final. Just gotta beat UConn." Yeah.
37:39
And then as a $3 favorite, they get blown out. That was kind of my regional weekend in a nutshell, as I went to 0 and 2 on my futures. Yeah. I'm honestly not s- more surprised by, you know, UConn than I am Evansville.
37:52
Uh, Evansville, that could have been, you know, a sneaky four seed in that, especially after Wake got eliminated. But let's talk about the UConn Huskies. What? Like this team, they struggled all season long.
38:06
They never really found their balance, and then all of a sudden going to Norman and come out of that. I think that may have been one of the most shocking results of the weekend.
38:14
And then you look at another, you, like you said, there's five three seeds that come through.
38:20
Florida goes into Stillwater and takes care of Oklahoma State, which was one of my best bets to make Omaha, and, and here we are, Florida Gators, 28, 27, probably should have missed the field altogether, but I said it all season long, all the talent was still there.
38:35
They just could never put it together, and lo and behold, they figure it out in Stillwater and now they're into the super regionals. I am in on them, uh, now, Matt, plus 172.
38:45
A book out here was posting that against Clemson. Do you share my, uh, my sentiment that, uh, now that the bats have woken up, this is a really, really dangerous Florida team? Yeah, absolutely.
38:55
And I'm not completely sold on Clemson. They're good, but when they get into a, a match where it's gonna be runs left and right, I feel like Florida's got the advantage in the pen. So I, I like that, Florida plus money.
39:07
And that was a bullpen game too, Florida beating Oklahoma State, three relievers in that, uh, decider, four to two there in Stillwater.
39:14
What's also tough, I, we don't have the, the benefit of this in any of the books, uh, here in Nevada. Kelly was doing some shopping.
39:20
Do you know of any books, Matt, that allow you to parlay some of these r- super regional, uh, or, you know, we had it last week with the regionals, that parlay series prices, since we have six of the eight super regionals where the favorite is $2 or greater, uh, on the odds board?
39:32
Yeah. And this is where you kind of get into a situation where, yeah, you did have some upsets in the regionals, but I feel like it's gonna be a lot of chalk.
39:41
Uh, I actually parlayed Tennessee, Florida State, and one more. I can't, I- A&M... Texas A&M. Yep, A&M. Yes. Yeah, that was a parlay that I got on DraftKings. So there are some shops out there that are offering them.
39:55
Nice. And Kelly's Florida State Seminoles. Let's go. There you go. Let's go, baby. Yeah, back in the saddle. They're number three in our insider's power ratings now. Watch out for the 'Noles. 23 to one. Let's ride.
40:07
I, I spent about 25 frustrated minutes just banging my head against the wall trying to figure out any book here that would let me parlay super regional, uh, series prices, Matt. I did not, uh, have any success.
40:15
Yeah, that network that y'all work for, they, uh, they'll let you do it. [laughs] Okay. That's a good place to start. [laughs] Okay. Good, good to know.
40:21
Let's go through the, so there's only two series here where it is viewed to be more of a toss-up, uh, and you get, uh, Kentucky minus 135 at home against Oregon State, plus 115, a really good Beaver team out of the Pac-12.
40:32
Kentucky, uh, taking the, the SEC, they were pr- preseason fifth out of seven teams in the SEC East. Great season for the Wildcats. What do you make of that series?
40:41
I've, listen, I have told everybody and their mother that I'm not buying this Kentucky Wildcats team.
40:47
The stats don't back up the, the amount of success that they've had this season, but I'm tired of losing money betting against them. For, for all intents and purposes, I'm gonna stay away from it.
40:58
But you- I wouldn't be surprised if Oregon State comes in and wins. Their probabilities are higher, uh, from our super regional guide sneak peek coming out. They like Oregon State.
41:09
But looking at this Kentucky team, they don't do anything great, but they do everything well, and they will punish Oregon State if they make a single mistake. And I think that's...
41:19
You know, when you get into the post-season, when you play clean, mistake-free baseball, that's typically gonna take you further than having a bunch of studs that can go out there and, and throw seven or eight innings and give you, you know, 14 strikeouts or have somebody hit three home runs a game.
41:35
So, I- it's a coin flip for me. The numbers say Oregon State. My, my head says Kentucky. So I'm just gonna stay away from it. Yeah. Hey, I'm, I'm with you on that. I, I loved Indiana State in that regional.
41:47
Three to one shot. Thought, uh, Kentucky was not like a paper tiger, so to speak, but thought they were definitely beatable. And, uh, Indiana State could not get the job done in that regional.
41:55
The other one, very tightly priced here as we're talking college baseball super regionals with Matt Grissom from collegebaseballinsiders.com right now on ANG. It's the, the Georgia NC State series.
42:04
This, at least on paper, would, would feel like you... The, the, just the craziest, the most competitive three-game series of all of them.
42:10
Georgia with one of the best, uh, offensive players in the country in Charlie Condon, minus 125. NC State battle tested. They're plus 105. Outstanding ACC, SEC matchup here, Matt. Yeah. I- and I really like Georgia.
42:24
I gave them out, uh, Georgia to make the College World Series at 12 to one, and I've got a little bit of them to win it all. But the pitching staff I don't think is gonna allow them to win it all.
42:36
But they are going to be able to swing the bat with the best of them, and I think that that starts with NC State. I think they take care of NC State. This has been a Jekyll and Hyde team all season long.
42:47
You never really know what you're gonna get out of the Wolfpack. Georgia has kind of been steady Eddie here lately. Uh, Charlie Condon, like you mentioned, he's been good on offense. We know that.
42:56
But, uh, Layton Finley, Jarvis, I can't think of his last name, they, uh, they're, they're been, they've been formidable in the bullpen for Georgia.
43:06
And like I said, that's always been the question mark for me, is can this Georgia pitching staff get to that next level to get them to the super regionals?
43:15
And they did it through the regionals, and, and I think they'll do the same to get them to Omaha. Georgia is taking some money in the market for minus 125 when those were posted yesterday. Now out to minus 150.
43:25
There are two dogs that are, are getting some, uh, some good betting interest here, Matt, so far in kind of that, that next category of, you know, they're decently priced favorites in Virginia and North Carolina, but not overwhelming to the degree of a, you know, an A&M or, or a Florida State or a, or a Tennessee who's your biggest favorite in the super regionals here.
43:42
Uh, Virginia minus, uh, now down to minus 230 against Kansas State plus 185 who took, took the Arkansas regional, and then North Carolina here getting, uh, down to minus 220 against West Virginia plus 180.
43:53
Of those two, more likely upset in your opinion? I mean, West Virginia kind of came out of nowhere. That surprised me. Yeah. Kansas State started the season in the top 25.
44:04
We knew about Kaylen Culpepper, we knew about Owen Berrima. Uh, Tyson Neighbors, the, the one of the best closers in the country.
44:12
They ran through that Fayetteville regional though, and I don't know if, if it's purple jerseys from the Big 12 that are r- the Razorbacks' kryptonite, but you had TCU come in there and do it last year, and then Kansas State did it.
44:23
I will say Kansas State, while the win was impressive, they, they really just had to beat Arkansas one, I mean, one time. Yeah, they did it against Hagen Smith, but then you get SEMO and,
44:36
you know, I'm not gonna discount them going through that regional, 'cause what they did was impressive. But I think their, their run stops here.
44:44
West Virginia, if Derek Clark can pitch like he did, I think they could give North Carolina a run for their money. So taking it to your question, I would say West Virginia- Yep...
44:52
is probably the more live dog with JJ Wetherholt and, uh, Derek Clark there against, against the, uh, Tar Heels.
44:59
UNC need, [laughs] what, minus 1,000 against Long Island needed the six run ninth walk-off grand slam cardiac, uh, Carolina. Uh, you always worry about that, uh- Hey, hats- Yeah. Hats off to them for beating LSU.
45:11
That's wild. I didn't think they were gonna have it in them. That was a wild game. That's why I love college baseball. Four, three in the 10th. Had to score in the ninth, the fourth, sixth innings.
45:18
Yeah, that was awesome. He is Matt Grissom. Check out, uh, follow him on, on Twitter @Grissom, @GrissomOnX. The super regional betting guide is gonna be coming out soon here.
45:26
So check that out, as well as collegebaseballinsiders.com. Great to see you as all, Matt. Enjoy the vacay. Y'all too. Thank you. When we come back, we'll recap our best bets, wrap up the show here on The Numbers Game.
45:36
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