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Jun 5, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | June 5, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | June 5, 2025
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33:41
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. [upbeat music] Numbers game here on VSiN.
0:15
We tricked you, not Gil Alexander. Matt Brown in for Gil for at least the count of- Psyche... yeah, one more day here. Kelly Fidlin on the desk with me.
0:22
Been a great week, tons of great guests, tons of great insight, and we keep that rolling here today. Will Hill gonna join us. We'll talk all things sports with Will. Oh, yeah. Will can talk about just whatever.
0:32
Yeah, we bounce around with Will. Definitely, I know he's got NBA finals thoughts- Yeah... and MLB always. Paul Spohrer going to join us.
0:38
If you are not a frequent visitor of FanGraphs and you like betting baseball, then what are you doing?
0:44
He is, uh, not only a unbelievably talented fantasy guy, but he'll give us some betting insights as well with all of that. And our very own Zach Cohen going to join us. We will talk... You know what?
0:55
We get the tennis and NBA with Zach Cohen. That's right. He, he also gets to be at second hour. He's usually never in the second hour because we usually got crackin' here on Thursdays.
1:04
So yeah, I, I let him sleep in today. Pumz g- gonna come on in here. You know what? We'll have the live insight because the, the matches are going as we speak right now. I know you looked up... Do you have a bet?
1:14
Is that why you were saying let's get it going? Uh, yeah, I might have thrown in a, uh, a, a random- Oh... little tennis parlay this morning. Did you, now? Yeah, yeah, a little Coco, Sabalenka Thunder parlay.
1:23
Of cour- of course, I'm assuming everybody's tying in the Thunder money line into parlays- Mm-hmm... these next couple days. Y- you...
1:30
I try not to be the guy that promotes a bunch of parlays 'cause that's n- you know me, I don't really bet that way.
1:34
But, oh boy, if you're looking at anything these next couple days and you're seeing that Thunder money line, it is way too easy to convince yourself to toss that in.
1:40
[laughs] And, uh, we will, of course, have tons of NBA thoughts throughout the course of the show today. But Kelly, last night, game one of the Stanley Cup Final. And let me tell you, hockey, hockey, buddy. Yeah, it did.
1:51
I mean, you and I are not gonna... We don't fake it. And if you guys have seen any of the programming Kelly and I have ever done together over the course of the last seven years, we have...
2:01
We're n- we're not hockey dudes, right? I mean, not on a day-to-day basis. Playoffs roll around, yeah, man, hockey Matt comes out. I'm all in. That's right. But on a day-to-day basis, not so much.
2:10
But y- you see games last night, and the way that that went down, the way they battled back. The Oilers win 4-3 in overtime over the Florida Panthers. Leon Draisaitl gets it done, his second of the game.
2:21
Connor McDavid with the assist on that. Total goes over the six and a half. Oilers cash at about a minus 120-ish favorite there in that game.
2:30
And, and Kelly, you know, that is what people talk about when they talk about playoff hockey. You know, I... Game 24 in the middle of the season that ends up being, like, a
2:42
1-0 or 2-1 grind in which the, all the goals came in the [laughs] first period. Yeah. And then [laughs] you just watch, like, the next two periods and absolutely nothing happens. Yeah, not really my cup of tea.
2:52
Again, I didn't grow up with hockey. In Louisiana, I don't know if you know this or not, not a t- not a big hockey state. Yeah. N- not, yeah, not huge. Yeah, not, not- Not huge [laughs]... not a big hockey state.
3:00
The closest, I think the closest team when I was growing up was St. Louis, you know? So I mean, like- Oh, gosh [laughs]... because the Dallas team wasn't there yet. I was gonna say. You know? Yeah, yeah.
3:08
The Dallas team wasn't there yet. They were still up in Minnesota, you know? And so, like, I think it was St. Louis. No regional networks, so you couldn't even watch hockey, you know? I mean, like, it was- Yeah...
3:16
literally... Only until the playoffs rolled around did I ever even see hockey every year. So I didn't grow up with it. I don't understand the nuances of it like I do all the other sports because I played them growing up.
3:25
But man, I can tell you this, you see a game like last night, and you don't even really have to understand the intricacies of everything that's going on, and you can just be entertained. Yeah.
3:35
And that's what I was last night. Well, and you, when you get a fun first period with all that scoring like that, and then the end- and then the ending that you get, uh, it was incredible.
3:43
I mean, down 3-2 heading, uh, into the third, Edmonton, and then able to tie it up, and then in overtime, uh, finish it off. It was quite an exciting f- uh, finish.
3:50
The one I would suggest is the, the Panthers, when you try to pass the puck, it, don't launch it into the crowd 'cause that sets up a penalty situation. And that, that seemed to go, go sideways for them last night. Yeah.
4:01
Yes. The, it was a power play goal that ended this thing. And as Kelly mentioned, they were trying to clear it out of there. It seemed like it just kinda, like, got off his stick a little weird, hucks it into the crowd.
4:11
And when- But these, these are the things where, like, you and I don't know hockey well enough where I'm like, I don't even know what to compare that to.
4:16
Is that, like, a complete slice off, uh, with the driver off the tee box? Like, that was... In slow motion- Ah... that looks real bad. What it... I think it's probably, like, a...
4:26
It's probably more like a, a very terrible foul in the NBA- I was gonna-... than it would be, like- Or, or the pass with, to, to nobody that's there, you know? Yeah. When you think you're passing to- Yeah...
4:35
someone that's in the corner and they've already cut. Yeah. 'Cause it's like the, it's like the, the turnover where as soon as it's taken, go, "Oh." Right [laughs]. As soon as it leaves your hands. Yeah, yeah.
4:43
That you see 'em just look down like, "Oh, man, no." Yeah, that was what went on last night. And of course, power play goal ends that thing.
4:49
And I'll tell you, Kelly, my fi- my 4-1 exact outcome here for the Oilers is alive. There you go. It is alive. Look at that. There you go. I like it. That was my, you know, that was my sweat here in this series.
4:58
I mean, uh, as maybe you gathered already, I was, uh... I did finally about two minutes before game time pull the trigger on the Oilers, but, but, but I tied it in with the Thunder tonight, too, so. Oh, okay.
5:08
So you're- [laughs] So results pending. Results pending still [laughs]. Res- results pending. If you go to VSiN.com, there's not gonna be a result in there- Yeah, no, no... quite yet with all that.
5:16
Speaking of going to VSiN.com, no longer undefeated here on the show. Yesterday, the Reds get spanked, though we did get the K prop over, so we split that game in general.
5:25
And then actually I don't even feel bad about the handicap with the Phillies. I mean, I really liked Mick Abel in that game. I mean, they lost 2-1, Kelly. I mean, like, you know? They lost 2-1. I- it's...
5:36
If dude only get [laughs] If the dude- Well... goes out and does what you ask him to do and the hitters don't hit, then, you know, I mean, I...
5:43
We always talk about the process over the results, and this is kind of a very typical process over results deal here. Okay, I lost. I don't feel bad about it at all. It was a 2-1 game, you know?
5:52
[laughs] He didn't, he didn't get shelled. The handicap was that he was gonna be able to go out and handle the Blue Jays. He did, they just couldn't hit.
5:59
I, I'll tell you the one thing that stuck out to me about that game, Matt, 'cause, uh, you know he's one of my favorite ball players, but Alejandro Kirk with the walk-off.
6:05
And, uh, it's looking like he's lost a few, uh, LBs these days. Oh. Is he on the shots? Uh, maybe.
6:10
I don't knowNo, and I was watching that, I was watching that celebration, and I'm like, "Alejandro's looking a little thinner these days" We're gonna, we're gonna see, we're gonna see him in the off-season with the, uh, in the commercials or whatever.
6:20
Yeah. You know? You know what was funny, though, y- but, uh, man, I'm blanking on the golfer now.
6:23
But like, y- I think about these things with sometimes, like, those body types, like these guys used to s- they get used to swinging, whether it's a golf club or a baseball bat- Oh, yeah... around the big body, right?
6:34
Mm-hmm. So you go and lose, lose some of that, who knows? It might affect your swing. You gotta change some stuff up.
6:38
Yeah, this is the work in the off-seasons for him is no longer gonna be shedding the LBs, it's gonna be trying to get the swing right. Exactly, yeah. It's like, "I don't have to swing around this gut of mine anymore.
6:46
Well, this is great." God, why am I blanking on the golfer that got skinny? He got skinny and then the, it just, game went to crap because he couldn't, he was so used to [laughs] having to swing around the belly.
6:54
[laughs] That's so good. Rockies sweep the Marlins. We were sitting here wondering if the Rockies were ever gonna win, and instead they go out.
7:02
Kelly, they lost 13 of their previous 14 games, and then rattle off [laughs] three straight wins on the road to get their first three-game sweep since May of 2024.
7:14
So if you are a Colorado Rockies fan, if you're sitting there listening to us right now up there in Denver, good on you. Happy for you guys that you get this done. You probably didn't even know it happened.
7:24
You've checked out on this team already. Oh, no, no, no, I know I, I have. No, this is- No, I'm talking about the people in Colorado. Oh, yeah. [laughs] Like, they, they're like, they didn't even know this happened.
7:30
They, they've checked out on this team already. Hey, man, that's a, that's a sweep- They're talking about Bo Nix...
7:33
of the Marlins They're talking about Bo Nix up there, you know, already Also, also shout out to JVT, who I, I...
7:38
Correct me if I'm wrong in the back here, guys, but I think three games in a row he bet the Rockies, which that, that takes some stones to go to the window with and boom.
7:45
Well, once you get the first two home, you're free rolling, so you know, I mean, yeah, yeah. It really was, yeah. Really was. Once you get the first two home, you're free rolling.
7:50
But they do, again, May of 2024 was their last three-game sweep. That's incredible. It, it really, it really is. And I, like the- It's been done. It's been done...
7:59
the, the terrible teams in Major League Baseball are so terrible this year. Like, it is, it is something special to watch.
8:06
Like, 'cause it's, if, if you said the Rockies swept someone, there, there's only a couple teams that you'd th- you'd throw out there of who it could happen to, and the Marlins are one of them.
8:14
So if you guys were up late last night out there on the East Coast, it wasn't that bad for us over here, but what you did see was the Mets take down the Dodgers
8:22
six to one, and with that, Kelly, the Dodgers 10 and 10 in their last 20 games.
8:27
And I understand 500 is not the worst thing in the world, but when you look at the Dodgers, when all we do is talk about how this is the dream team and the team that is destined to ju- go, let's go ahead and just hand them- Yeah...
8:37
the World Series as it is, 10 and 10 in their last 20. And by the way, had the Padres not lost, they would be tied out there in the West right now, but the Padres did lose last night as well.
8:46
But, you know, maybe there are some cracks a little bit there for the Dodgers.
8:50
And so if you're a fan of any of these other teams in the National League, it might not be a foregone conclusion that the Dodgers are just going to take it and just gonna go to the World Series.
8:58
I mean, it makes it interesting. E- every time we go and look at NL West odds, it's like you think of the juggernaut that is the Dodgers, and the odds reflect that.
9:06
But then you're like, man, like, there's some good teams right there behind them.
9:10
I, I, I mean, I'm not talking myself into a division bet, uh, anytime soon against the Dodgers, but man, it's, uh, I mean- Numbers are juicy. Yeah.
9:17
I mean, you're getting good numbers on, what, a Padres team that's a game and a half back from the Dodgers right now? That's pretty good. Uh, A's lose again. They've lost nine in a row and, uh, 19 of their last 20 games.
9:29
Yeah, it's been- So they're the new Rockies. New Rockies. The A's are the new Rockies. Sickle.
9:33
And if you guys were, you know, thinking this team was gonna be froggy all year long, I mean, I guess I can't really blame you. On May the 13th, Kelly, so not that long ago, May the 13th, this team was 22 and 20. Yeah.
9:45
They are 23 and 40. [laughs] They, they are- That is, that is not great. Yeah, yeah. I mean, it was- Stayed under last night, though. Yeah, I mean, you're sitting here, nine in a row, 19 of 20.
9:56
They were 22 and 20 on May the 13th, and they are now 23 and 40. Well, clearly- Sacramento crowds are gonna start dwindling out there...
10:05
cl- yeah, clearly they just need a real, a real home, a real place to call home, okay? Yeah, that's [laughs]... Well, what's that, five years away? Hold your breath. [laughs] Yeah.
10:12
I don't think they broke ground out there quite yet. [laughs] I don't even know that they have the money to get it done.
10:17
Djokovic loses the first set, and then goes on to beat Zverev three, two, and four in the next three sets. So he moves on, and man, those last three sets, you're just sitting there looking, and you cannot believe
10:29
that Djokovic is the age that he is. I mean, it's just the, it's a different breed, that guy, for sure. And looks like [laughs] he might be for real, might be live in this thing.
10:37
We'll have to see that going on, he thinks, by the way. I, I, it's, it's, uh, I've brought it up multiple times with Gilbert, but it's the...
10:44
Like, I, at this point with Djokovic, 'cause the odds are now long enough where I'm like, I feel like I should just be betting him every tour- Yeah... because he somehow surprises and gets a- He's a cyborg...
10:51
at least a little bit further than we all expect. Yeah. Cyborg. Quick news and notes here. Uh, Pablo Lopez out 8 to 12 weeks with a shoulder strain for the Twins. That's a big hit. He had a 2.82 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP.
11:03
His expected's in the low threes, so that is a big hit for that Twins team. Yu Darvish is actually progressing nicely.
11:09
Should be able to join, uh, rejoin that rotation there for the Padres here sometime in the next month or so.
11:14
And then Rob Manfred said on Wednesday he does intend to submit a proposal to the league's competition committee, Kelly, to get the automated ball-strike challenge system in play for 2026. So when these guys are...
11:28
You've s- you've seen it on the internet. When these umpires are missing these calls- Yeah... by, like, seven inches, you just tap the helmet, and then he goes, "Oh yeah, I guess I missed that one." Mm-hmm.
11:37
"I guess I missed that one." Let's get it going. NBA Finals- Too good... when we come back here on the Numbers Game.
11:42
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:06
Numbers Game here on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:09
Thank you for being with us here on a Thursday, be it- Sirius Channel 158, our very own Beaston Watch app, YouTube TV, or terrestrial stations across this great country of ours.
12:18
Kelly, I'm glad I did not see this person before whenever we were doing our golf research, because he would have gotten a bet from me without any research whatsoever. Kinda like your, uh, kinda like your tennis bet here.
12:28
[laughs] You're right. I have my short- Our new favorite golfer, Cougar Collins. Cougar Collins? Cougar Collins. How are you spelling that? Just, just like the animal cougar? Like Cougar Collins. Oh.
12:41
He is, uh, he's Canadian, so I'm sure he got some sort of exemption to get in this tournament or some- or whatever. But Cougar Collins. Parents these days need to submit names before, uh, naming their children.
12:51
They, they, there's some wild ones out there. I don't know. Cougar Collins would've gotten our money for sure. Some sort of money. Maybe a top 40 or something.
12:58
I mean, we've, we've, we've bet Nachos before just 'cause they're b- Yeah... just 'cause they're named Nacho. Cougar Collins, that's a T72 right now for Cougar Collins. Not bad. Struggling. No. Your boy's back on top.
13:07
Not likely, no. Alex Smalley with a one-shot lead. Now joining us here on the show, you have seen him here week after week. You've read his great work. You've listened to him over on FanGraphs as well. He is Paul Sporat.
13:19
Sporo on the all of the different socials out there. Paul, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing very well. Great to see you, Matt. How's it going, Kelly? Good to see you as well- Fantastic... man.
13:29
And, uh, you know, baseball rocking and rolling here. I know we're competing with- Mm-hmm... the NBA finals, the N- NHL finals as well, but some interesting storylines that are going on out there, including
13:41
this A's team that, uh, I brought it up a little bit earlier, Paul. It was 22 and 20 on May the 13th, and is now 23 and 40. We are now...
13:50
I mean, the discussion, I know we, like, joke about and clown on the White Sox, but I mean- Right...
13:56
are we, I mean, and, and even the, the Rockies, but are we, are we, uh, need to add the A's as far as, like, these teams that we can just look to basically bet against every single night?
14:06
Yeah, they have completely backslid, uh, mostly due to the pitching or severe and utter lack thereof, as it were.
14:13
Even their best pitcher, Mason Miller, out of the bullpen has gone through some troubles, let alone the fact that the starters just aren't that reliable. They were playing some interesting ball early on.
14:22
You know, scrappy offense in that park that inflates offense. They'll give you a tough night on any given series. Uh, that's, that, like you said, up until about a couple weeks ago now, when they cannot buy a W.
14:36
And yeah, I just, I don't see where the, where the light at the end of the tunnel comes. I don't think they're quite as bad as those, those bottom-tier teams.
14:44
I do think that this is more of an ugly cold streak that's gonna, you know, keep them down at the bottom of the division for the Athletics and everything. But I don't think they're quite White Sox, Rockies class.
14:54
But they're that next class above, which is, which is pretty rough. [laughs] They're pitching in Oak- uh, excuse me, in, uh, No City.
15:00
They're pitching in No City is, uh, just terrible, and that's really, really the problem right now. Because a lot of them are home run guys too, and what are you gonna, what are you gonna get in that park? Home runs.
15:10
So I don't see a great fix in the future, uh, just yet either. I, I like our graphics 'cause it's just the, uh, the city is the. The Athletics. The Athletics. Yes, the Athletics. That's right. Just, uh, uh, Sack Town.
15:22
[laughs] That's right. Sack Town. Yeah. We're just gonna, we're, we're gonna go with Sack Town A's.
15:26
Uh, Paul, I know your answer to this is going to be we don't need to worry about anything, so let me just, let me just pose it as a more broad question here. Okay. The Dodgers are 10 and 10 over their last 20 games.
15:36
We have seen this team not look as invincible, I think, as maybe we thought they were going to be through the first, you know, w- for the first 55 games here, as we're looking at, uh, you know, one game behind now, the Padres are in that division.
15:48
I don't think you're worrying about the Dodgers a- as, as overall here, but is the NL just in general maybe not as cut and dry as we thought coming in here? Are the Dodgers vulnerable?
15:58
Can there be a team that can get to them? Oh, certainly. I, I think that's the right way to frame it.
16:04
'Cause yeah, as far as them as a team, despite not looking like the, you know, peak Avengers the way they have at times in the past, they're still in first.
16:13
You know, e- even every time we talk about, oh, they've lost, you know, four series in a row, or they're 10 and 10 here, things aren't quite looking great with the pitching. All true, by the way, I'm not denying that.
16:22
And yet, because they are such a force, they're still at the top of the division and near the top of the NL. But to your broader point about the National League at large, it is remarkably difficult.
16:33
You know, not just their division, where you've got San Diego, San Francisco, and we'll see what happens with Arizona. Losing Corbin Burns is rough.
16:40
I like that team, but I don't know if they've got the, the horses anymore pitching wise. But then you look at Chicago, St. Louis, uh, Mets, Phillies outside, and even Milwaukee. That's a team I just can never quit.
16:51
I know they kind of do it with, like, ragtag names on the pitching, uh, but I cannot quit them either. So it is a deep National League, and we know how these short series go.
17:00
You know, part of the thing before the Dodgers won last year was, oh, you know, the, the best team doesn't win all the time. This, the playoffs are stupid.
17:07
And now it's like because they won, oh, the playoff, th- it's preordained that they're gonna win. No. Playoffs are the playoffs, and sometimes the best team's gonna win, and other times they're gonna get upset.
17:16
And I think that they have a chance, the Dodgers this year, to get upset as, as much as they have in any other year recently, less because they're problematic or bad, and more because other teams around them are really, really good.
17:29
I want you to separate yourself from your fandom, and I want your honest- Okay... opinion here.
17:33
If we look at the AL and you see the Detroit Tigers, where they sit right now, six games clear, by the way, of the Twins, and six and a half of the Guardians.
17:41
You will see that they have the best record in baseball as well. Are they the best team in the AL, or is it still probably the Yankees, something like that, but the Tigers are at least in the conversation?
17:53
Yeah, I, I think the Tigers are in the conversation. As I pointed out and everyone knows, I'm a big, huge Tigers fan, so, you know, put that bias on the table. But I think I can, uh, you know,
18:03
neutrally analyze the team and understand that it doesn't quite have the star power of, of some of these other top teams like the Yankees, and even a team like the Astros that-... is just kinda lying in wait.
18:14
You know, they really look toward the playoffs these days, where it's like, hey, they've proven the regular season over and over.
18:20
They're not quite in the peak of their window by any stretch of the imagination, and they do need to get healthy. Does Houston, but even they, I think, are a team that's up there.
18:28
The Tigers aren't just a scrappy bunch of, of no-names, though. They have a legitimate ace. They've got a strong number two behind him.
18:35
So Tarik Skubal the ace, Flaherty behind him, and then quality guys filling out behind. The bullpen has been masterfully run by Hinch, both last year and into this year. And then there are legit names on the offense.
18:46
Parker Meadows just came back. He could be the catalyst. That's the thing. They did all this without him. Right.
18:51
So even as some of these other guys regress, Parker Meadows just being there is gonna negate some of that regression, at least in terms of the impact of it, by being an awesome player in center field, because we knew Javy Báez wasn't gonna last all year there.
19:04
Then you got Gleyber, Carpenter, Green, and Tork. That's a legit top five.
19:08
You know, you got, you got the top half of your offense that you can really trust, to say nothing of Colt Keith, and Zach McKinstry's been a god this year. Dylan Dingler, Jake Rogers catching combo has been nice.
19:18
It is a really quality team that has depth, that is gonna be adding depth as the season goes, too.
19:23
Because one of the things that goes understated about this team is they lost three, four key guys early, but the backups played their butts off, and really was a big reason why they were able to get out to such a lead here.
19:33
So yeah, I like my Tigers. I don't believe that they're some invincible American League team. I totally understand why the odds to win have the Yankees ahead of them.
19:41
They ha- they do have more star power there in New York, and we can feel confident that they'll go out and chase at the deadline. We don't know what the Tigers will do. Talking to Paul Spohn from FanGraphs.
19:52
Yeah, I'm glad you brought up Parker Meadows. I think a guy... I think a, a, it's almost like a pickup for them, even though he's- Right... he's been on the team. But I mean, he's, he hadn't played at all this season.
20:00
And like you mentioned, just a guy that kinda does everything, right? I mean, like, he's got the speed, really good out in the outfield as well. As we look from a DFS perspective today, I'm looking here.
20:10
I do see we got a few different places where the wind is blowing out, if you wanted to stack against or stack in some of those games or whatever. Anything that you're looking at here from a DFS perspective?
20:21
Yeah, it's a pretty interesting day, because you definitely have some studs atop the, uh, a- atop the heap there with pitching. Max Fried facing Cleveland.
20:28
Framber Valdez, uh, at Pittsburgh, so not only a good lineup to face, but a good park as well. Robbie Ray gets San Diego, which is not easy.
20:35
They're, they're a quality team, but Robbie Ray has been 12th on the FanGraphs Player Rater this year at starting pitchers. I think you got three real bonafide studs to choose from.
20:43
I like Bryan Wu as well against Baltimore. They're not, uh, too bad there. As far as, like, where we're picking, uh, I think that, uh, uh, we talked about the Athletics. They have a guy named TBD going today.
20:53
They can't even find a name- [laughs]... for whoever they're throwing today. So the Twins could be hitting the ball like crazy.
20:58
Brandon Pfaadt's somebody that I root for and I wanna like, but he cannot get lefties out, and he's been struggling with righties of late. So look at your Atlanta Braves, uh, hitters as well.
21:08
And then Slade zacconi, interesting young arm for Cleveland, but I do think the Yankees in Yankee Stadium have a chance to jump him.
21:14
So a lot of ways to go on today's board, whether you want some premium pitching and big bats, or if you wanna kinda play the middle and just get a bunch of, like, decent players and see where that goes.
21:23
I think you could take any route you want in DFS today. He is Paul Spohn, writer and podcaster over at FanGraphs, and of course right here on this program each and every week at Spohn on the socials.
21:32
Paul, appreciate the time, buddy, and good luck today. Thanks so much, y'all. Ha- thanks for having me on. Take care. Guys, a reminder, sharpplays.com. You can go over there.
21:40
You can check out what they have going on with their AI and sources that they have on some of these games out there. Free betting reports, real-time alerts, and insights delivered to you via email or via X.
21:51
Sharpplays.com, trusted by the pros. Um, Kelly, I look here, and, you know, I guess this is a good time, since he brought up the, the, the Braves, as did, um- I'm, I'm trying to get a baseball bet in... as did Will.
22:03
Are you... What are you trying to get in? Mattelieu, fellas. Oh. Team, team total over. Look at that. That's g- you know what? We'll go through the whole game here in, in the top of this next hour.
22:11
Pro- probably parlayed with the Thunder, but, you know. Hey, we're not par- [laughs] We don't need to parlay. We don't need to parlay. Let's just cash the ticket, right? That's, yeah, yeah, you're right. Yeah.
22:19
This morning, let's just do that. We'll save the Boisson talk for when we have Zach Cohen. That's right. Yes. You know? We don't, w- we don't have any insight into Boisson.
22:28
Except for I, I need to kn- know what that shoulder routine is. You like the shoulders? [snorts] Good stuff on there. Hour number two when we come back.
22:34
[upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:54
Numbers game here on VSiN. Peeling the curtain back. Kelly been in the chair for about three seconds. Come on, man. You just slipped right on in there right before we went back live.
23:03
Th- there might not be a, a lot of things that I do great around here, but, uh- Slipping- Oh, timing that c- Just sliding into the chair right before... timing that clock of when, when I disappear- Mm-hmm...
23:13
in and out of studio, when you guys at home have no idea. It happens. It happens. I, uh, in for Matt Brown, in for Gil Alexander. I'm looking at this. It's, it's leaderboard now.
23:22
Just a smattering of golfers at four under. Oh, really? Sam Burns, Nick Taylor, Alex Smally, Jackson Suber, Paul Peterson are all at four under. Don't look now, Taylor Pendrith at three under. Uh-oh.
23:34
Who we have a first round leader bet on. Harry Hall. You know what I s- I was... Okay, so my plan for first round leader was to go Keith Mitchell, Harry Hall, Taylor Pendrith.
23:44
But the Pendrith, Pendrith has been bet so heavily this week that I, I was disgusted by the first round leader numbers. Hmm. So of course I stayed away. Harry Hall at three under. Victor Perez at three under as well.
23:56
So the leaderboard is starting to look a little bit better for us here. I did find my boy Johnny Kieffer at two under, so live there as well. I've even got guys that looked real bad early. I, I...
24:09
But Rory's, uh, climbed his way back. Luke Clanton, Clanton, he's climbing his way back. Luke Clanton. Couple birdies on the card Cougar still tied for 70th. [laughs] Come on, Cougar, get it together.
24:20
[laughs] Cougar Collins. It is always fun to see with, like, how many Canadians are in this field, period, but then, like, how many are playing well already. Mike Weir's one under. Good for Mike Weir. There we...
24:31
Now joining us here on the program, our very own Zach Cohen. Find him betting on X on the Twitter machine, and of course, all of his great work over at vsin.com. Zachariah, how you doing, buddy? I'm good.
24:43
I think Kelly was trying to avoid me. That's why I got to the chair so late. [laughs] You didn't wanna have to talk to him in the break? I, I had important discussions in the back to have, okay, Zach? Very important.
24:51
You didn't, you didn't, you didn't wanna talk to him in the, in, in, during the break? It's okay, Zach. Y'all talk enough? Uh, yeah. Za- Zach JVT and I text like, uh, 17-year-old girls do, I think, so, uh, yeah.
25:00
[laughs] Just a constant, nonstop group text going. Okay. So then you didn't need to talk to him. That's fine. Yeah, we good. Let's start out on the tennis side of things 'cause we've talked a ton o- of NBA.
25:10
Certainly gonna get your NBA thoughts as well, but we see Djokovic go out there and defy all logic and age and whatever. Doesn't matter that he's 57 years old. Still doing what he's doing.
25:21
He's going to be a plus 330 dog to Jannik Sinner, and then we've got Musetti as a 475 dog to Alcaraz. Um, any thoughts on either one of those? Yeah, I have plays up on the website for both of those matches. Mm.
25:35
Uh, in the Djokovic-Sinner match, I, I'm really fascinated to watch it. We haven't seen them play since last year, and it's their first time playing on clay in quite some time, if at all.
25:44
So I, I'm really interested in seeing it. I have the over three and a half sets in that match, which is more or less a play on Djokovic to win a set.
25:51
I mean, Sinner is a minus 450 favorite, a six-and-a-half game favorite. He's expected to win that match pretty easily. I think Djokovic is gonna be able to give him some trouble.
26:01
Djokovic was really, really sharp in his win over Alexander Zverev last round. He was hitting a lot of drop shots. Drop shots are actually something that Sinner could have some problems with.
26:10
His legs are one of the only questionable things that he really has going right now, and his fitness is one of the only things that's really questionable with him. So I think Djokovic can win a set in that match.
26:19
So over three and a half sets at minus 140 or around there, I think is a really good play. Over on the women's side, we got this going in about... It looks like they're, they're hoping in about a half an hour.
26:29
Coco Gauff minus 575 over Begu, who is sitting at four to one. Anything to look at there in that one? I would be looking at Coco if I were to take anything.
26:40
I have futures on Coco, so I'm not really looking to do anything here because not really trying to hedge.
26:45
I don't think that Begu is a really good l- you know, live underdog here, and I do think that Coco's gonna get to the final. Having said that, like, minus four and a half games is out there at, like, minus 150.
26:55
I believe minus one and a half sets is out there at minus 150. If you wanna play those, I don't think it's the worst idea in the world.
27:01
The only real chance Begu has of making this match close is the crowd just completely getting to Coco the way it did against Andreeva in the last round.
27:10
Begu is, you know, a good prospect, a solid player, but definitely punching above her weight in this tournament. I think this is kind of the matchup where you see that.
27:19
All right, Zach, just flipping over to the NBA finals getting started tonight. Your favorite single bet game or series is what, my friend? I, I think game by game's gonna be the way that I'm gonna go with this series.
27:32
Like, I did take the over five and a half at plus 115. I feel better about tonight taking nine and a half or 10 with the Pacers. I personally got it at nine and a half. There's a 10 out there now.
27:42
I wanna see Oklahoma City prove that they can beat this team down before laying double digits with them.
27:47
I think i- it's a very aggressive game one spread, especially considering we know the Thunder give up a ton of threes.
27:54
I think only six teams in the regular season allowed more three-point attempts than the Thunder, and we know this Pacers team can shoot it.
28:01
They're shooting the ball better than any team in the entire postseason in terms of three-point percentage in this postseason.
28:06
And I think that one of the things that I'm keeping an eye on is in the games against Minnesota, in games one and two, the Timberwolves had chances to win those games in Oklahoma City.
28:17
They just unraveled with turnovers because of Oklahoma City's ball pressure. I don't think that's gonna happen with Indiana. Indiana's got the third-best turnover percentage in the postseason.
28:26
They had the third-best turnover percentage in the regular season. I don't think we're gonna see as many mistakes out of the Pacers. So I do think this is a series the Thunder are gonna win.
28:34
I don't really see the Pacers winning it. I just don't think we're gonna see blowouts in every single game. Talking to our very own Zach Cohen.
28:40
Of course, find his work over on vsin.com, betting on X on the Twitter machine. Zach, I asked Kelly this a little bit earlier. Curious your thought. We're sitting 230, 230 and a half.
28:49
We got up to all the way to 232 in this thing, now starting to come back down a little bit. If this game goes over, is there a correlation to how you think it goes from a, from a Pacers or Thunder perspective?
29:05
If this game is under, does it mean you're leaning towards one of the other teams? Is there any sort of correlation at all to the result of the game with the total?
29:15
I guess my boring answer is I don't think there is a correlation. Hmm. Like, I just kind of think that the Pacers have proven now in the series against the Knicks that they can win in multiple different ways.
29:23
So if they do speed things up, maybe that helps their offense a bit. But I do think that Haliburton has kind of been learning on the fly and improving on the fly in terms of half-court execution.
29:32
So if it ends up being a little bit slower, I, I still think it's just gonna come down to whether or not the Thunder role players are making shots at a, you know, a high clip.
29:40
I think we've seen throughout this postseason, like, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren have had their moments, like, really good moments for both, and they've kind of answered the questions that I had of them going into the, you know, into the playoffs.
29:51
But I don't think it's a night-to-night consistency thing where you could just count on them every single game.
29:56
So I think there's gonna be games where, you know, the, the, the supporting cast lets Gilgeous-Alexander down. I don't think there's gonna be as many of those, uh, from the Pacers.
30:04
I know they're not as strong in terms of actual talent, but I think that they're deeper with trustworthy contributors. I think that's, uh, it's an interesting breakdown, Zach.
30:14
A- and I, I can't necessarily disagree, right? We just haven't seen it, it steady from Ch- uh, it's... I'll even say just Chet and J Dub before we get to real role players.
30:22
It's, uh, they showed up big last series, um, but you think you'd need a little bit more out of them for th- uh, for them to roll. Any... You do a lot with player props.
30:30
Always go to vsi.com, check out Zach's work every single day. He's usually writing stuff up on these games and then bets as well.
30:36
Anyth- anything you're looking to bet, any players that you're looking to bet against, target against, or to bet on in a specific, uh, prop market this series?
30:46
So, so the one that I have is Chet Holmgren to average 20-plus points at plus 500. I got, I think at MGM. Ooh.
30:51
I, I just think that, you know, we saw Karl-Anthony Towns really abuse Myles Turner's kinda slow footwork in that last series.
30:59
You know, whether it was knocking down threes on late closeouts or attacking those late closeouts, there was just a lot for Towns in that series as both a shooter and a downhill driver.
31:08
Holmgren doesn't play with the same kind of force that Towns does.
31:10
He's not quite as big, but he is really good at putting the ball on the floor, and he scored 20-plus in three of the final four games against the Timberwolves. That Minnesota defense is better than this Indiana defense.
31:21
So I just kinda thought it was worth a sprinkle at plus 500. I'm not sure I'd say it's likely.
31:25
I think it'll probably take, you know, a 30-point game at some point because I do think there's gonna be a bad game at one point.
31:31
I just do think there's a really good shot that he ends up being kind of the most reliable number two for SGA in the series.
31:38
Zach, I'm gonna give you a free hundred Matt bucks and you are gonna have to bet one bet on the team to win in the exact amount of games.
31:45
I actually have a, I have a, a, a Thunder in five ticket as we he- as we head into the series right now.
31:51
Kinda my only thing that I'm dealing with, along with the first, uh, I have the them to win tonight and then win the series as well at kinda like minus 275.
32:00
What are you looking at from this team wins in this amount of games, you get one bet? I think it's OKC in six.
32:08
I, I took the over five and a half in the series mostly because, like I just said, I think there's gonna be a bad OKC shooting game at some point, and I think there's gonna be a really hot Indiana shooting game at some point.
32:17
As long as they don't kinda come in that same game, I think we're gonna see the Pacers win two games. I also think that, like, I, I think Indiana's a little bit more alive tonight than they're being given credit for.
32:28
I mean, they're 3 and 0, uh, in game ones in this postseason, 7 and 1 straight up and against the spread this year overall when playing with three-plus days of rest.
32:36
I think the Rick Carlisle with extra time to prepare is just really dangerous, and I know that Mark Dagnall i- is an unbelievable coach as well.
32:43
But I do think Carlisle, like you look at the series and try to find the guys with, you know, finals experience, championship-winning experience, it's really Carlisle as a coach and a player.
32:52
So I think that he brings a lot to the table in this series, both as an X's and O's coach and as a motivator, as someone that can calm his team down. So I think Indiana's gonna be really live tonight.
33:01
OKC in six, plus 450 over at DraftKings if you are so inclined. He is Zach Cohen. Catch all his work over there on vsi.com. Zach, thanks for the time, and good luck, buddy. Thanks, guys.
33:12
Guys, we got a contest running if you want to go in Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. Get in on the action with our friends at First Bet. You can play in the First Bet and VSI Belmont Stakes Pick 'Em Challenge.
33:21
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33:29
That is vsi.com/belmont. [upbeat rock music]
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