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Jun 6, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | June 6, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | June 6, 2024
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44:35
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. All right, Thursday morning, downtown Las Vegas.
0:13
I am not Gil Alexander, I am Jared Smith in for Gil the next few days. This is a numbers game, uh, powered by ZYN Nicotine. Um, I didn't, I didn't have any nicotine on my walk this morning, but Kelly Bidlin is here.
0:23
Kelly, were you, uh, dabbling? I, I... so I saw something unique this morning when I was walking across Fremont Street. [laughs] No way. 6:30- You saw something weird on Fremont Street at 6:00 in the morning?
0:33
[laughs] And I've done this, I've done this show a few times now, and I have not yet seen this. It was a, a, a lady walking her baby in a stroller at 6:30 in the morning down Fremont Street. Oh, gosh. Oh, gosh.
0:45
I've never seen that before. I've seen a lot of intriguing characters walking across the street. You know- That's a good way to describe it...
0:51
usually they're, they're setting up for their various shows or they're street performing things, or there's security or, you know, people just kind of grifting around.
0:58
But I've never seen [laughs] a mom, baby stroller, just cruising down Fremont Street at 6:30 in the morning. Yeah, that's a little terrifying.
1:06
The one that, the one that I had to stop for last week was when I saw a, a older couple, uh, I will say, kind of, kind of doing, like, the mall power walk on Fremont. Or- I guess it's a good place to get a workout in.
1:17
Well, I was like, "Okay." It's hot outside. I was thinking, "This should make sense. This should make sense. This is just not what you see on Fremont Street at 6:30." [laughs] Yeah. No, it was unique.
1:26
But we'll, we'll get to more pressing matters in just a moment. We have a fun show planned. Kelly booked a great show. We're gonna have Zachary Cohen on bottom of the hour, talk a little NBA.
1:34
We had some big news come out of the NBA overnight, which we'll get to in just a moment. Stormy Bonatony's gonna come on in our 8:00 Pacific hour, talk some NHL, and she'll have some UFL as well, and some VSiN history.
1:45
So fun story, been working at this network now for two years. Besides Stormy's co-host on the Lombardi Line, Mike Lombardi, the only person I've n- yet to do an on-air segment with is Stormy and Mike Lombardi.
1:56
Ah, there we go. So you didn't know that before you booked the segment. History. But I was texting her yesterday. We're very excited. We're not gonna do anything special.
2:03
We're just gonna do what we normally do, which is talk about sports. But just, you know, it, it was fun. I've never... In two years, we're friends. There you go. Never had a chance to work with her.
2:12
Um- UFL Conference championship games this weekend... yes. That will change today. We're both on the Panthers. We'll tell you why coming up in our 8:00 hour. But the overnight stuff, I...
2:21
so I, I did get home relatively late last night. I was hanging out in New Y- at New York, New York. You know, there's no place like home, right? Um, [laughs] doing, doing a little fun- I haven't been there in so long.
2:31
[laughs] It... you know, it's funny, 'cause it, it actually is one of the last, like, theme hotels in Vegas now. Mirage is about to shut down. You got Luxors is kind of kicking still, but Circus Circus.
2:40
[laughs] I also appreciate... I don't know, I appreciate the cheesy- Yeah... the cheesy theme. Oh, oh. You know what I mean? Times Square hotdogs? Yeah, yeah. Like, that doesn't exist in real New York, by the way.
2:48
Um- I appreciate that. Like, the Venetian with, with the, the sky walk... Venetian's still themed... like, I love that. Venetian's- Like, I love that stuff... still themed.
2:54
I guess technically Mandalay, but we don't consider those themes. Eh, not really. Like, they're kind of just, like, tropical. Yeah, right. I guess Venetian is themed.
3:02
Venetian is, I would put- I, I put Venetian as themed. But now that Mirage is going away, it's, it's, it's one of the last jewels. But, um, so I was out relatively, out relatively late last night.
3:11
I didn't see this news until I woke up early this morning. Um, but we thought the Lakers were going to bring in JJ Redick.
3:19
We, we, we saw all the reports and I guess more the, you know, brotherly love between him and LeBron when they were kind of doing their little, uh, behind the scenes video stuff.
3:29
And everyone just assumed based on the early reports that JJ Redick was gonna be the head coach of the Lakers. No one really gave it a second chance because I think we all thought, "Hey, that makes sense." Mm-hmm.
3:38
Like, the head coach isn't a huge deal anyways. LeBron likes JJ. Okay, that's fun. Um, yeah. Other than Shams took it a step further yesterday when the, you know, really reporting those talks were heating up. So- Yeah.
3:49
And I kind of put it to bed. Like, in my mind, I'm like, "All right. That's kind of the way that story's gonna end, and let's move on with our life." Well, we got a curveball dropped into the market today. Yes, we did.
3:59
I didn't see it. I don't think it's gonna impact the market too much, but, uh, this is a big story. Dan Hurley, of course, back-to-back national champions with UConn cashing in his chips, literally.
4:10
Um, he is going to sign, from what we're hearing, a lucrative, lucrative multi-year deal with the Lakers to be the next head coach. And I, I think this is a big story for two reasons. First of all,
4:24
what changed between the Redick news and all of a sud- I mean, it was a very short turnaround from us basically thinking JJ Redick was a done deal, and, and now it not being...
4:36
[laughs] the, the Lakers going in a completely different direction. I think that's one part of the story.
4:41
The other part of the story we talked about before we came on, the continuing theme of college coaches kind of bailing, frankly, or swiftly moving away from the college game because of- Mm-hmm...
4:54
maybe some things that are happening with college basketball, college sports that is changing the metrics of kind of how coaches coach, recruit, et cetera. Let's start with the first part of the story. Uh, what happened?
5:05
Like, I, I mean, w- was it just a move by Hurley's agent to kind of get some more... I, I, I don't know, because that was a really quick shift from Redick to Hurley over the last 24 hours.
5:14
It s- I mean, it sounds like there have been talks going on from what we was just reporting- Okay... this morning between the two sides. I just think it, I think it really heated up here recently.
5:23
Um, I mean, Jared, I, I, we, I, I think just on the face of it, if I was to say, "Hey, you got a c- uh, like, you got a game tomorrow with the Lakers. Who's a better coach?" [laughs] Hurley.
5:32
JJ Redick or Hurley, I think that's an easy answer. Not even close. Right? We're, we're so- One of them's an, one of them seems to be really good at TV. Yeah. Yeah.
5:39
I bet ESPN's happy now they get to keep their analyst, right? Yes, probably. Uh, I mean, this is far from done, right? Yeah.
5:44
The report is the talks are, you know, they, the Lakers preparing a massive long-term offer to bring in UConn's Dan- Wow... Dan Hurley. So far from done.
5:53
But I, I mean, I think he is, he is the guy that I'm guessing, I'm guessing JJ Redick was always a part of the conversation, but probably knew exactly where he stood, uh, better than the rest of us of where, who else they were talking to.
6:06
Um, so I like Dan Hurley. I think it's really interesting. I think the college part's interesting. We, and- Yeah... we can get to that in a sec.
6:11
The, I mean, from an NBA perspective, would this really ma- I mean, I think it's...
6:16
A- and you know, you're a college guy way more than me, but okay, it's, it's very hard to miss what Dan Hurley's impact has been on UConn's program and the type of coach he is.
6:25
He's selling as high as he could possibly sell. Exactly. And I think when you're bringing him into the Lakers, you are gonna be building that franchise more around him when it's been a lot- Yeah... about what LeBron is.
6:37
And what this reminds me of a lot, Jared- It is, it is. It's LeBron going to Miami and going into, you know, going into a system- Culture... that was not all about him, and a culture that's not- Yeah... all about him.
6:50
Now, what's different this time around is, well, we don't know how much l- longer LeBron's gonna be around, right? I, where my initial reaction would be this sounds great off the top.
6:59
What's gonna be, what's it gonna be like after th- year three with LeBron and Dan Hurley? But I don't know that there's gonna be a year three. I don't...
7:05
I, I, if I took, if I would bet the under on two and a half years with LeBron- Me too... in, in, in the Lakers. I, I think
7:11
my initial r- like gut reaction is this is the next step po- this is the first building block post-LeBron. Agreed. And [laughs] maybe next year he won't be around, who knows?
7:24
I mean, have we not seen this with LeBron before? [laughs] Um, I- how it's gonna impact the Lakers, they're obviously going to a more gritty culture. Yeah. They want culture. When you bring in a guy like Dan Hurley...
7:37
And the one thing I love about Dan, and I actually, it's funny, every now and again I'll go through my drafts on Twitter, and I'll look through things that I wrote up and didn't send out.
7:48
One of the things recently, and this was like a week ago, I was doing this, I was scroll- and I, I saved, like I, I, every time... I use my Twitter drafts as like my notepad.
7:58
Like if I have a thought- That sounds dangerous. [laughs] Yes. And I, I'm gonna do a game one day where if I get enough likes, I'll drop, like New Year's Eve, like before the ball drops, I'll drop all my drafts.
8:09
But one of the drafts I had saved recently, and this is just completely random that it happened to be a Dan Hurley thing, was Dan Hurley talking about like accountability and like how he builds a program. Yeah.
8:20
And I remember it was like a, "If you want accountability, Dan Hurley's your guy." Like, and this is a kind of thing that there... A- and frankly, I think it's kind of the way the NBA needs to go.
8:31
The NBA needs more coaches that are strong voices that can control the narrative. What are we seeing in the league? The players have so much power it's beyond belief.
8:44
Now, just because you hiring a guy like Dan Hurley doesn't mean he's gonna immediately take over power, but I think what this shows is a, is a mindset shift with the Lakers.
8:53
They've had a lot of figureheads in their head coaching job over the last decade, you know, few years that LeBron's been in town. It's been a lot of guys that are yes-men to LeBron. This is not that.
9:04
This is the opposite. Now, again, we don't know if this is 100% confirmed yet, but it feels like this is the right move for the Lakers.
9:12
It does feel like this is a move that is kind of signifying the end of one era and the start of a new era.
9:19
The start of an era where the Lakers are trying to become a little more like those Phil Jackson teams where they had gritty, heart, determination.
9:26
Now, they also had Shaq and Kobe, but it was a culture that I don't think the Lakers, frankly any NBA team has, outside of maybe the Knicks. Like d- I, I'm trying to think, and you cover the NBA more. Miami.
9:38
I- I- Miami, sure. The, uh, there's not a lot of teams right now that kind of have that culture. But maybe the Lakers are trying to build something.
9:47
Speaking of culture, I think this actually, you know, the, the other part of the college sports news from yesterday that goes hand-in-hand with what we're seeing, um, was the College Football Playoff announcement. And
10:01
the reason why I tie this in is because college sports right now, college sports is like semi-pro. Like I, I, I think when you look at... So they dropped the College Football Playoff schedule yesterday.
10:14
My initial reaction was, "Whoa, ho-ho." You get eight College Football Playoff games in a nine, I think nine or 10-day window between December 20th and New Year's Eve. So it's basically an 11-day window.
10:31
But you get eight College Football Playoff games in a basically Christmas week. I mean, any argument against this thing expanding [laughs] has to die after seeing the schedule.
10:45
Like any response, Kelly, I have to the, "Uh, expansion's gonna ruin it." Did you see the schedule? It's gonna ruin it? Yeah. You're crazy.
10:54
I mean, I think the, for, for ca- for more casual guys like me with college football, I love this. Oh. Like this is great. Incredible. Like this is an incredible schedule.
11:02
I understand though, I, I, I, I, I do, I still go back to the, "So why am I supposed to care about the regular season though?" Like that, like that's gonna be a continued problem- Yeah... in college football.
11:11
I, I, I think that's, I think what it does is it takes away the extreme urgency. Mm. Where if you lose one game, you're out. I think now teams can drop a game and still be okay, but there's more than one game.
11:28
Like there's 11 more games after that. So if a team loses a game [laughs] in the first week or two, well then the whole rest of the sea- Again, we'll get into it a little bit more on the other side.
11:38
College sports is changing. The news we heard yesterday blowing up the landscape. More of a Numbers Game after this.
11:44
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
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12:50
Warning, this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Thursday morning, downtown Las Vegas, Jarret Smith in for Gil Alexander on a Numbers Game. Kelly Bidlin here as well.
13:01
We are live at the D, and joining us now, he does fantastic work, VSiN's senior editor, and we've got a lot to get to today. His name is Zachary Cohen. Follow him on social media on X at Betting On X.
13:13
Very, uh, uh, keen of you, Zach, to change your handle to Betting On X. Did you pre-empt that before, uh, Elon made the switch there? No, I did it, like, the day of or the day after, I forget. Smart.
13:25
I didn't know if they were changing it to X. So yeah, I was just like, I didn't like my original handle.
13:28
I had an underscore in there that was always confusing, so yeah, I was just like, "Well, let's change this right now. Let's capitalize." That's a smart move.
13:35
I, I think I was with Zach, I think we were doing a Hardwood Handicappers podcast- Yeah... when y- I'm pretty sure it was day of, Zach. You were all over it. Smart.
13:42
The real question I have though now is do you regret it at all? Because, like, I, I don't know about you guys, but I don't call it X. I don't, I don't r- I barely know anybody who calls it X. Eh, Zach, what do you think?
13:52
I don't regret it. It, it just makes it sound like I'm betting on something either way. Like, X could be like- Yeah... you know, like in a math problem. So I was f- I was fine with that.
14:00
Uh, yeah, I d- I don't regret it at all. Yeah, the math nerds aren't gonna like it, but that's okay. [laughs] They rarely like anything. Um- Plus X gonna give it to you, right? X, I was exa- I was thinking exactly that.
14:10
[laughs] All right, um, I, I was pulling up your, uh, article right now. You can go to VSiN.com. You can check out Zach's, uh, prop and, uh, series bets for, uh, game one of the NBA Finals, right?
14:20
We were talking about this pre-, uh, during the commercial break. Finals for the NBA, final for the Stanley Cup. I know the hockey people get really upset when you call it the finals. But it is the finals in the NBA.
14:31
Um, and I'll be honest, I was a little bit surprised, because you not only like Dallas tonight, but you also think they can pull off the upset.
14:40
Yeah, I like Dallas on the spread tonight, and I like Dallas to win the series. I mean, I don't really think that, like, it's likely Dallas wins the series, but I've explained it, you know, on a few shows right now.
14:49
But I do think that the minus 225 odds on Boston is, like, an implied probability of something like 70%.
14:55
And I just don't think that you can go with that when there's a t- you know, a team that has a better player than your best player, and a team that plays really good defense.
15:02
So I just think that these games are going to be close down the stretch, and I just kinda trust Luka Dončić, and I kinda trust Kyrie Irving more than I trust Jayson Tatum towards the end of games.
15:10
So that's really where I'm at with it. I think that we're gonna see a really close series. It wouldn't shock me if the Celtics win, but I think Dallas is worth a swing.
15:17
And at the same time, tonight I think that 6.5 points is a little too many, just because I do think that the defensive nature of this series is going to make it pretty hard for either one of these teams to really run away with games.
15:28
I don't think we're gonna see many blowouts in this series, and I just think that we're gonna see spreads closer to five, 5.5, uh, moving forward. Yeah, I thought it was interesting.
15:36
I thought the market was trying to tell you something when we talked about this right before we went to break earlier this year. And I know a lot's changed, the power ratings have changed.
15:44
It's not like Boston's gotten any worse, though. I mean, they just swe- [laughs] they've lost two games in the whole playoffs.
15:48
They've won, like a, like a seven-game winning streak heading into the finals, one of the longer, uh, in recent memory. Um, but
15:55
Boston at home was laying 7.5 to Denver, the Nuggets, who I think were the number one power rating team for pretty much the entire year. And now we're seeing 6.5, game one of the finals.
16:05
Like, to me, there's two ways to look at it. You can say, "Oh, well you're getting value on Boston," because, you know, Denver, we think power rating-wise is a little bit behind Dallas.
16:14
But then you also say, "Well, maybe Dallas has improved that much over the last couple of months that they've made this run that we're not giving them enough credit," and it sounds like that's kind of the camp you're in.
16:27
Yeah, I think so. I think that Dallas has proven that they are very much a, a tier one team in the Western Conference. I mean, they're representing the West.
16:33
They're one of the only teams that would've had to have gone through the gauntlet that they did, beating Oklahoma City, beating Minnesota.
16:38
They didn't, you know, they didn't have a soft schedule to this point like you could say about the Celtics. They've beaten two very elite teams in the Western Conference.
16:45
And at the same time, it's like, you know, all the power ratings, all the advanced stats that I look at do say, you know, they tell a story about a Boston Celtics team that is almost historically good.
16:55
But at the same time, it's like, I have to trust my eyes at some point, and I just watched them really struggle with an Indiana Pacers team that is not [laughs] as good as this Dallas Mavericks team.
17:04
Uh, two games they played without Tyrese Haliburton, India- Indiana.
17:08
You know, a better team, a team with, with their best player on the floor, a floor general like a Luka Dončić, like a Kyrie Irving, isn't blowing those two games, or even three of the four games that we saw in that series.
17:18
So I just think that I'm, I'm just not really buying Boston at this point, because there is execution issues. I know that they're a great team on both ends of the floor. I know that they're really deep.
17:26
I love their back court. I love that Derrick White and Jrue Holiday are two guys that absolutely get after it on both ends.
17:32
But at the same time, there's just something missing in terms of, like, execution in key moments. It was nice that they came back to win those games in that series, but I don't know if I see it happening.
17:41
If they play with their food at all against Dallas, I think they're gonna be in trouble. Zachary Cohen, VSiN senior editor joining us now. Follow him on X at Betting On X.
17:50
He's got an article up for game one of the NBA Finals that are tonight between the Boston Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks. So you like Dallas. You think they're a little undervalued in the series.
18:00
The prop market, obviously at this time of year, I think is the place to find the most value. And I love when you bet on props that are so low, because you know me, I'm the first inning guy. One swing of the bat- Yeah...
18:10
I wanna win. In this prop with Maxi Kleber, one shot and you could be good. Yeah, this is a really weird one.
18:17
Like, you're, you're banking on a, an adjustment that probably needs to be made in the series at some point being made early enough in game one, which hey, maybe it isn't.
18:25
But I do think that with Kristaps Porziņģis and Al Horford out there, the s- you know, the Celtics are always going to have a floor spacing big on the floor, and that's going to present problems for a guy like Daniel Gafford, who's been playing big minutes for Dallas, but has a little bit, you know, he's, he's a little slow in the foot is what I wrote in the col- uh, in the column.
18:41
[laughs] But Derrick Lively does not have that issue, and Maxi Kleber definitely does not have the issue. I think that Kleber's actually the best perimeter defensive big that Dallas has.
18:50
Also, they're a best floor spacing big themselves, so if they wanna go five out, try to combat, you know, the math battle at the three-point line that the Celtics are playing, there's going to need to be minutes for Kleber, maybe 15 to 20.
19:00
And like you said, he hits one and this play wins. It's, uh, over 2.5 points is what it is.
19:05
A- again, I, I think, so- Typically, when you go, and I had a hockey analyst say this to me that made a lot of sense, when you go from series to series, and when you go from home court to, you know, road, right?
19:18
Or home ice to road in between games two and three, there's a shift.
19:22
And a lot of times, the match-ups, the rotations, whatever, you know, you know, you're looking at, drastically change, and that's why the prop market to me is always intriguing.
19:32
We haven't heard about Maxi Kleber much over the last few mo- uh, couple weeks. He's been hurt. Even when he came back, he wasn't as effective.
19:39
When he was healthy, to your point, Zach, this is a guy that is incredibly versatile, incredibly dangerous, and the way that Boston plays five out, especially with Porziņģis back on the floor, it makes a ton of sense, especially getting a week off to hur- heal that shoulder.
19:54
I, I think you could see his point total double, uh, between now and later on in the series. So I, I think you made a ton of sense there. All right, Mavericks and Kleber on the NBA side.
20:03
We have tennis happening right now, and you are a champion not only of the tennis world, but also, uh, picking French Open selections.
20:10
So, uh, a- anything, I know that the time zones can be a little bit weird with when these, uh, matches start, but is there anything in the tennis world of note today at Roland Garros?
20:21
Uh, I have a small play on Jasmine Paolini to beat Mirra Andreeva. Uh, that was a really s- exciting day of women's tennis yesterday. You saw both players come away with huge upsets. Andreeva beat Aryna Sabalenka.
20:32
Uh, Paolini beat Elena Rybakina. Two monumental upsets, like they both were, I believe, -400 favorites, or right around there. So it's a really exciting match today.
20:40
I think a lot of people are going to be on Andreeva, who is kind of the story of the tournament at this point, a 17-year-old into her first semifinals.
20:47
She's a player that a lot of people think will win majors someday, but at the same time, I think this is a really tough matchup for her, because both of these players are, like, baseline grinders.
20:55
They don't have great serves. Uh, both of them just want to play long rallies and outlast the opponent.
21:00
But I think that Paolini is a little bit stronger, at least has the ability to go bigger from her forehand side and end points. I'm not sure that Andreeva actually has that.
21:08
I also think, you know, I'm a big believer in, like, an emotional letdown spot. That win over Sabalenka for Andreeva has to feel like the biggest win of her career.
21:15
She got absolutely washed by Sabalenka when they played in Madrid, uh, about three weeks ago, or actually maybe a month now, ago.
21:21
But yeah, just destroyed by Sabalenka the last time they played, overcomes that challenge here. I wonder if she's able to get up the same way that she was yesterday.
21:29
Yeah, I wish that I had some analysis to add over the top of it, but- [laughs]... I'm just trying to say the, I'm just trying to say the tennis players' names correctly.
21:37
That's really where I- There, there you go, Jared... where I have to start and end right there. Uh, Zachary Cohen, uh, always great to catch up with you, my friend.
21:43
Good luck with the tennis and the NBA Finals wagers, which will begin tonight. Thanks, guys. Thanks for having me on. Great stuff as always.
21:50
Zachary Cohen, of course, you can find his work all, all over, um, thevsyn.com homepage. He's our senior editor, and you can follow him on Twitter @bettingonx. I,
22:00
l- I, maybe I'm scarred from what just happened to me in the Pacers series, but I just can't fade this Boston team right now.
22:08
And I'm sure that is the perfect elixir for them to drop this game tonight, and, you know, all the good luck that they've had- Yeah... end of games to kind of come back and bite them tonight, but I don't know.
22:18
I just can't get there. Uh, they have been, i- it's a fascinating series. I have futures tickets on the Mavericks, so I hope they come out on top. Yes, you do.
22:25
Uh, Jared, but I, but we are talking about a historically great regular season team, and when we talk about having to change a Dallas power rating, you don't really have to change anything from the Boston side from the regular season.
22:38
It's true. We'll get to some of, uh, Kelly's futures plays in the series wagers on the other side of Numbers Game. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:57
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23:39
We appreciate our colleague, Stormy Bonitatini, hopping on in that last segment. Also Zachary Cohen in our first hour, talking NBA. We had the NBA Finals, the Stanley Cup Final. Stormy threw in some UFL talk.
23:52
We have all three major sports covered. Now let's get back to the fourth.
23:57
Um, because Major League Baseball to me, and thank you very much to, uh, this viewer, Sky High, um, awesome stuff, um, sending us a tweet, uh, uh, just a few moments ago complimenting us for the Yearfy Nerfy analysis, the first five information and, and the questions that you were asking me, and kind of the back and forth that we were having.
24:14
Yeah, I got a couple. A couple of who's this guy on with you? This is great. [laughs] I said, that's the guy, that's the man, Jared Smith right there. I love that. Um- The Yearfy Nerfy man...
24:23
the, the f- as Dustin Sweetelsen says, the father of first innings. [laughs] Which is my favorite. So you know this- That's a good one... you've been around the sports world a long time. You can't pick your nickname.
24:35
Sure, yep. It has to be given. It has to be anointed like the Knight of the Round Table. You are S- you, you arise Sir Robin of Loxley. [laughs] Um, that is how I felt after that.
24:45
It was last year, Dustin and I did a show, I think it was over at the South Point together, and I love Dustin. The dude prepares his tuchus off when he's h- in the hosting chair.
24:55
He doesn't get to do it a whole lot, and he did research on me.
24:59
He's like, "Oh, I see you like to do the, the first inning stuff," and he came up with that nickname before the show to kind of use it on the show as like a, as like a segment. That's great. That's perfect.
25:09
And it stuck because- I'm not a gimmicky guy.
25:14
I'm very, just like our pal Stormy, how we talked in the last segment, I'm very corny dad joke guy, but I'm not like, I don't need to have like a nickname to be like anointed into the gambling world.
25:23
Like, I'm fine with just being Jared. But J- he went to Jared. [laughs] But this, but, but this nickname is very apropos because I have really fallen in love with this market, and I think this market is a very good,
25:39
I wanna say, litmus test for how the average recreational bettor handles betting on sports every day. Mm-hmm. Because there are a few things about this market that are
25:56
a microcosm of betting on sports every day. Well, well I think in that, that, I think that conversation, and I, I know we'll be po- we'll be putting it up on social media- Yeah, I'll be putting it up later-...
26:04
yeah, putting it up... 'cause it was very valuable, I think. I mean, I think that's a, it was a good example of a convers- a- and I, I don't know how Jared handles this stuff.
26:10
Th- this, but I love listening to handicapping processes, right? Yes. And where do you start, right? And that's usually the, the biggest question.
26:17
I think that was, that let, I mean, all of it made sense to me, but as we were talking more and more, it's great to know where you start and where you go from there, and everything that needs to be included in the handicap.
26:28
And like you're talking about, you can use that as a smaller example and when you go into full games or seasons, or whatever, whatever- So much un- That's a perfect example of how it ends up blowing up... unknowns. Yes.
26:37
There's so many unknowns, the more you, it's like the muffin top theory, like when you start, the muffin grows past the- [laughs] Right, exactly, yes...
26:44
once it goes past the, the stump and it starts gr- it goes in a bunch of different directions. That first inning is a microcosm of betting on sports every day because it's obviously a grind.
26:57
There's information, there's data that you can use to help you, but at the end of the day, I call them the Nerfy Yerfy gods, right? I have the Nerfy Nymph and the Yerfy Yeti.
27:07
[laughs] I guess I am a little more gimmicky than I lead on. Yeah, apparently. I guess I'm very gimmicky. I apologize for lying to you a few moments ago. But
27:14
that, to me, is at the end of the day, we can handicap this stuff till we're blue in the face. I can create, I can create a good number. I can base it off of a bad number that the sportsbooks hang. I can bet that number.
27:25
It could move in my direction.
27:26
Everything could be working in your favor, and then Brandon Nimmo, with a runner on first, could hit a ball directly at 106 miles an hour at the second baseman, who turns an insane double play on an expecting batting average, uh, swing of, of.630.
27:41
It, it, it, and it's just like, what do you do? You're, you're sitting there and you're like, "I m- I handicapped this game perfectly," and you still lost. That is a microcosm of sports betting.
27:53
We only have control until the game starts [laughs] and it is cruel the way that we lose sometimes. Baseball is, every sport has its cruel, cruel ways of losing. Baseball's no different. But I, but the way that
28:07
I approach it is it has taught me to not let it affect and impact how I handicap because you could lose four or five bets in a row like that, in excruciating fashion, and we're human beings.
28:20
Our natural instinct is to say, "Well, that's not working. Let's change." Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
28:24
But consistency, discipline, and the ability to create a system that is repeatable and that you can derive value from based off of numbers. Yeah. I'm not a math guy.
28:36
I don't have this advanced, you know, actuary degree like our friend Steve Fezzik that can create all these probabilities in his head. But he has helped me, and other professional gamblers have helped me
28:48
take the recreational mindset and apply it to sports betting. So we're not making the sharpest bets out there. There's always gonna be someone sharper.
28:57
But we're at least giving ourselves a fighting chance because we're not just throwing crap against the wall and hoping that it sticks. And I think that is where the first inning, 'cause it's very, it's, it's simple.
29:07
There's only a few batters you have to worry about. One pitcher. It's a very, I think, repeatable, kind of like a good diet, right? If you have a good diet, it's repeatable.
29:16
You don't, you don't have to do these crazy things. Now, now you've lost me. I, I know, I know. And- [laughs]... well, I, I think it's more like when you have a routine, like a workout routine- Yeah...
29:24
the more complicated it is, the harder it is to do every day. And if it's hard to do something every day and repeat it, you're not gonna have success unless you're consistent. Yeah.
29:33
Consistency in sports betting is the key.
29:36
If you're over here one day, and then you're doing this, and then you change your thing every day, you have to have a goal and then you have to work to achieve it, and you have to just every day chip away, and just find new ways to be more efficient at what you're doing.
29:48
Yeah, I think that's a, it's a, I think that's well said.
29:50
I think it, it, it's, especially when you're isolating first inning, like it's not even, it's not even comparable to like, uh, first quarter betting i- in, you know, NFL or NBA, 'cause it's, it's even a smaller, [laughs] smaller size than that.
30:02
So it is, you're gonna get, you're going to get crazy variance in it. Yes. And that is- Baseball is nutso variance... like you say, you, it's something you gotta live with.
30:09
Like there, it's, it's kind of like being at a blackjack table, right? You're gonna lose five hands in a row. It happens. Like the, the point is that hopefully, like you said, gravity, right?
30:17
Don't double your bet- Yeah... when you're going bad. You need to stay consistent. I'm not a big blackjack guy.
30:22
I wanna get more into it because I think it's a good game that I think, you know, helps the numbers side of my brain. I, I'm more of a craps guy, but that's more for recreational. That's another story for another day.
30:32
But now let's zoom way out. Mm. Yes. So we were zooming in on the first inning. Now let's zoom way out because I think the first inning markets are fun, but let's be honest, it's, it's Plinko.
30:44
I, I think the more intriguing wagers to make in baseball on a daily basis is to track the futures market and to see, 'cause baseball's a regression sport. We now have two months of data.
30:56
Now we can kind of say, "You've overachieved. We think you're coming back down to earth," or vice versa. Let's start with the odds to win the American League MVP. I have two bets open in this market right now.
31:04
I made Kyle Tucker last week. He got hurt, unfortunately. Okay. Yep. His numbers dropped. I'd still bet him at 10 to 1. He looked, he popped in the recent straw poll. He got a lot of votes.
31:14
Obviously, the hard part of this market, the other bet I have, shout out Dustin Swiderson, he, he's on Jose Ramirez, which I also think is a bet that's gonna come down if he continues to lead the, uh, league in RBIs.
31:23
But obviously, the two guys at the top, the Yankees, i- it's hard not to gravitate towards them. The question is which one? I, that's what's fascinating How do you pick one between the two?
31:32
Yeah, I don't, I, like, much like we just talked about with, with the first inning stuff, like, this is... It's, it's much more of an individual sport than it is- 100%... a team sport. Like, if this was the NBA, right?
31:43
Like, the, you, you, you couldn't, you couldn't price like this, right? I guess you can- No...
31:48
a little bit more with Major League Baseball, but at the end of the day, you still- How often do you see two players that are priced the same this late in the year? Right. Yeah. I mean, like- Very rare...
31:54
but you're still talking Major League Baseball- On the same team... them being on the same team, and voters that, uh, I mean, writers that are voting on this.
32:00
You think, uh, my, my, my first instinct says they're gonna split the vote, and it's g- it's gonna open up s- for someone else to win this thing. Right. But also- That's my first instinct, too.
32:09
But then- That's why I wanted to talk to you about it... but then, so then we get to the next step. Who's going to win? Who's gonna get those first place votes? I don't understand how you can...
32:19
If the Yankees win 110 games this year without Gerrit Cole for most of the year- [laughs]... how do you not give one of these guys [laughs] the MVP? Well, no, uh, uh- Especially if both of them play the full season.
32:28
Now, injuries could work this out. I agree with you, but it goes back to point, that's, if that's point two, it goes back to point one immediately, right? Who do you vote for? [laughs] Yeah, who are we voting for?
32:37
And if the votes end up getting split, then- I don't think they'll get split as much as we think they're gonna get split, but our instinct says they're gonna get split because- Right...
32:47
we have this view of society that we like to see people dragged down to our level. So we see this embarrassment of riches for the Yankees.
32:55
Okay, so- The two players at the top, we're like, "Nah, they're both, yeah, they both cancel each other out." Okay, so then the, then it's the narrative game, right? And does Aaron Judge always win that?
33:03
Like, i- it's the- I give it to Soto this year. Okay. Like, yeah, but, like, isn't Aaron Judge always gonna be the most po- more popular name? Yes, but new team, new environment, new league.
33:15
For him to hit the ground running like he did, I think that's the more impressive season. Okay. That's just my opinion. I'm not a voter.
33:21
We'll have a little more on this because I think we're actually getting information from people who are voting, which thank you. We'll wrap up the numbers game, a numbers game, on the other side.
33:32
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:55
We are this close, you can't see me right now, but I'm giving the, the little small, you know, minuscule finger sign here.
34:01
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34:12
That's code VSiN. New customers, 150 in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks only on DraftKings. The crown is yours. All right, let's wrap up a numbers game. Been a fun show.
34:23
I'll be back tomorrow in for Gil Alexander, and he will be back next week. Kelly Bidlin here with us as well. Excited to get to tomorrow's show. A- again, breaking news if you were not with us a little earlier.
34:35
Chris Fallica, The Bear, um, will be on tomorrow to talk, uh, some ponies, the Belmont. He is likely in Saratoga right now, the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. Um, and we'll get that full breakdown tomorrow.
34:46
Anyone else- Should be joining us tomorrow... of note? Should be joining us. I, I, I, I, I don't want to oversell because- That's fair... I know he is doing a lot of rehearsals tomorrow for Fox.
34:53
Uh, and he's gonna try to squeeze us in. Balance point, yeah. Schedule, let's leave it at this. In Major League Baseball, we call it the projected starter. Right. Correct. It could- Exactly... it could change.
35:01
Projected to be with us. Projected. [laughs] Lou Finocaro will definitely be with us. Lou Finocaro will absolutely be on. Little college baseball, a little NHL with him, a little UFC. I love talking to Steve Lou.
35:10
Little time with Lou. Gam Lou. Um, talk a little, uh, puck and whatever else is on his mind. Um, and hopefully we'll get The Bear on as well to talk, uh, uh, ponies. Again, I, I don't handicap horse racing.
35:20
I love betting horse racing. It's another one of those sports, kind of similar to hockey, great watch, not a market that I, you know, spend a lot of time in.
35:30
But when the big things are happening, I'm always, I always got a few pennies, a few shekels- Yeah... uh, invested. I, I'll tell you, Jared, I, I'm, I'm definitely the guy who bets on, on all the Triple Crown races.
35:42
Uh, usually bet, like, on that, I'm, I'm the average Joe be- better, right? I'll pick, like, two horses to win. Yep. That's it. I got it.
35:47
Couple long shots in the Derby always, and then in the Preakness and the Belmont I tend to go a little more favorite heavy. Yeah. Yeah. But the Derby, we hit the Derby, which was awesome. Yeah, we did. Me and you did.
35:56
Live. That's right. [laughs] I was live on this air, what was it, like, a month ago? Yeah. Feels like 10 years ago based off of all that's happened since then. Um, but horse racing is just, it's such a great...
36:07
I always tell, if you're trying to get involved in gambling, like, y- you, you're turning on, if you're watching this show, you're involved in gambling in some capacity. Hmm. This advice is not for you.
36:15
But if I get a lot of friends that reach out to me, "Hey, your career's going so well. I saw you on this show." Like, what are you talking about? Y- obviously not a gambler.
36:24
I always tell them horse racing and soccer are the best two sports to start and here's why. Soccer, of all the sports that involve a ball or a puck, it's the lowest of all the totals. Two and a half is usually the total.
36:39
Right. Sometimes it's two. You're not handicapping a lot. Like, you, you, you need two things to happen in the, in the match in order for you to win. So it's, like, less, right?
36:48
Control what you can control, and I know it's a boring [laughs] sport to watch. I get that.
36:53
But when you're handicapping and if you're really interested in getting involved in gambling, understanding the odds of something happening is hard enough.
37:03
Understanding the odds of something happening in the NBA 200 and something times in, in points wise- Yep... it's a lot of volume. Baseball, [laughs] weird. Hockey, niche sport.
37:18
Totals can be a little bit higher, but still relatively low. I think hockey's a good introductory sport, too, 'cause the totals are still low, five, five and a half, six.
37:26
Football, most people get involved in football because they watch it, but there's a lot of moving parts. It's also the sharpest of all the markets. Yeah. Hardest to win in.
37:33
I always tell people soccer because it's, it's palatable from a total perspective, and I always tell people horse racing because horse racing helps you understand odds. And, like, betting on something... happening
37:46
is a much longer shot because of the odds associated with it and the implied probabilities.
37:52
Again, this i- this is not for you guys because you all are, you know, experienced gamblers if you're watching this show, but I think hockey and horse ra- or excuse me, soccer and horse racing are my two favorite sports to get involved in for- Yeah, I think, I think the only thing, the only thing I, I'd warn with, with horse racing is just the parimutuel markets, right?
38:06
That's very- Like, you're never, you're never gonna get that-... tricky... in sports betting.
38:09
[laughs] No, you're n- p- the parimutuel is actually, to be fair, it throws off a lot of people, and a lot of people get really upset about it. I understand why, but it, it is what it is.
38:18
All right, let's wrap up, um, the show by, by continuing our discussion about what we're doing in the MLB futures markets. Um, the, the, the thing with Soto and Judge, so MLB.com does this straw poll. NBA does it, too.
38:31
Tim Bontemps does it periodically throughout the year. Baseball's done this now for the last couple years.
38:36
It's a little bit more quiet on the baseball side because let's be honest, in May and June, we're not really focused on baseball a whole lot, unless you're a diehard like us.
38:43
Well, in the most recent straw poll, which came out on May 21st, Juan Soto went from 38 first place votes in April down to 28.
38:52
Still the leader by far in terms of first place votes in the MVP market, but significantly less.
38:59
Aaron Judge went from zero to three, so you saw Judge get off the mat and start to gather some first place love, and Kyle Tucker was the big riser, going from zero to six. That's why I made a bet on Tucker.
39:10
It was obvious to me that the voters were starting to respond to his numbers. [laughs] I didn't expect him to get hurt the next week, so- Yeah... that obviously was an unexpected derailment.
39:20
I would not recommend making a bet on Kyle Tucker now because he fouled a ball off his shin.
39:25
He should be back tomorrow, but obviously a little more- You might as well wait and see the odds on him come down, yeah You might as well wait.
39:30
10 to one is gonna be there in another week or two, and you'll get another straw poll come mid-June, and you'll be able to base your odds then. But I think Ramirez makes sense.
39:39
He didn't get any love in the markets, but I think the narrative makes sense based off of what the Guardians are doing. Big win for them yesterday. Actually, they were rained out yesterday.
39:46
Two days ago, they came back and beat the Royals. I think they're going to win that division. I think Jose Ramirez is going to be among the league leaders in RBIs. I think that number, 20, 25 to one, will come down.
39:57
But I also think either Soto or Judge are gonna win this award. It's about picking the right guy. Soto makes sense based off of the intangibles I just told you, but if Judge smacks 55, 60 home runs- Yeah.
40:10
[sighs] That's where that, though, the headlines and the nar- the narrative might take that over. It might overtake it.
40:15
I will, I will say, though, that is, Tucker and Ramirez, the par- part, the past few weeks, and you've heard it on this show, uh, but you know, I've heard it from many other baseball guys that I respect, it feels like those are the bets right now.
40:25
R- Ramirez specifically. I, I- Yeah... his name keeps coming up over and over again. I would lay off Tucker because of the injury. Right, yeah.
40:30
Because naturally there's gonna be a dip in the market there any time you miss. He missed two games. He might miss another one tomorrow. We'll see.
40:38
Um- I- it's a long season, not worth betting till you know he's back and he's fine, yeah. And exactly.
40:42
Y- if the Astros, they have no desire to rush him back, although to be fair, the Astros are not exactly, uh, sunshines and rainbows in the standings right now.
40:49
But, uh, they have enough there to last a week, that if he misses four or five games, his number's gonna take a dip just based off of the initial impact of that. But I don't think his odds to win the award in the end,
41:02
if he's gonna win this award, it's not gonna be in June. He's gonna win it in August and September because he's gonna lead the, the Astros back on this crazy comeback, and they're gonna win the division.
41:10
To me, that is the value with betting Kyle Tucker. It's do you think Houston can come back and make, make a name for themselves in this division? Right now, it looks like it's Seattle's division to lose.
41:20
Um, but we'll see. Obviously a lot of season left, and I do think the Astros have a lot of talent. I think Gunner Henderson and Bobby Witt are a year away, and I love those guys to death.
41:32
They are shooting star players in this league. Obviously Gunner won Rookie of the Year last year. I don't think either, well, I don't think Baltimore's winning the AL East.
41:42
I think Yankees are winning the AL East, and I don't think Kansas City's winning the AL Central. So I think it's hard for me to bet on those guys knowing that they're gonna be playing second fiddle in their own division.
41:53
I don't think the same is true with the Astros or with the, with the Guardians. I do think the Astros are gonna come back and win that division.
42:01
I do think the Guardians are gonna win that division, and that's why I'm a little more comfortable with Tucker and Ramirez. But at the end of the day, at some point in the next month or two,
42:14
I will make a bet on either Judge or Soto to kind of balance my action a little bit. I don't know which one, and I don't know when. I'm leaning Soto, but I ain't there yet.
42:24
Yeah, it's, it, it's gonna be interesting to see what happens with their, with those odds, too, right? [laughs] Like, let's just see. I think they're both gonna stay the same for most of the summer.
42:31
Right, yeah, like, if they both keep up the same, same-ish level of play- Unless one of them gets hurt. Yeah, I'm with you. That's the only reason that one of them would dip dramatically. Yeah. I, I think you're right.
42:39
I think you're right. So I g- any, uh, d- any NBA finals bets for you tonight? Was there, was there one you said you were gonna look at? I'm going to do, I'm gonna bet Tatum over rebounds.
42:48
I'm gonna bet Kyrie over rebounds. I think w- I think naturally we're gonna see a lower scoring game tonight, but I don't think it's gonna be, I don't necessarily think it's gonna be an, a stone cold under. Hmm.
43:03
Like, I think it'll be a game, if you want me to script it out, one of the teams is going to be impacted by the rust, shooting wise. I think it's gonna be Dallas, but I'm not 100% sure.
43:16
Yeah, I think if I was, if I was looking that way, it's what you brought up earlier in the show. I think I'd look maybe first half, first quarter, something like that. First quarter under if you really wanna get sweaty.
43:25
I think they'll shake it off. You know I love the, you know I love the first quarter, the first inning bets. But I do think there will be a point in this game where both offenses get into a rhythm. Yeah, me too.
43:35
And then just like any NBA game, honestly, the best way to bet the NBA is live. That, that has been my feeling this entire post season. We do these shows. We have to give out our opinions. Hmm.
43:47
So we don't have the advantage of just, you know, being on the air 24/7. We can just tell you exactly the moment we bet live. That's what social media's for.
43:55
But I, I think I'll bet a lot of rebounding pro- I love Zachary's, uh, Maxi Kleber prop. Yeah, yeah. I, I, I think, I love props where it's one and done. Um, and I think Boston wins.
44:06
I think Boston covered, but I'm not 100% sure on that. I think game one is much wait and see. Yeah, I'm in on the over pregame. I'm with you.
44:14
I might get attracted to Dallas side live, but I, I, I'll probably be staying away from the side this game one. We'll break it all down tomorrow. Exciting time to start.
44:20
It's been a great, uh, show, and I will be back tomorrow in for Gil Alexander here on a Numbers Game. For Kelly Bidlin and our entire decent crew and all of our guests, thanks for joining us. [upbeat music]
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