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Mar 20, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | March 19, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | March 19, 2025
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44:34
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. So, on those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VisaN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
Just 24 hours away, 24 hours and a little change, from March Madness. It is a numbers game. Visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin on Sharp Week.
0:23
There's a wave to the crowd, Kelly. We're- Yeah, that's right. Sharp Week, let's go. Sharp Week. Good show. Jim Root from Three Man Weave will join us momentarily, uh, to, uh... For a couple segments.
0:33
We'll just go, we'll go bracket by bracket. I don't know about bracket by bracket. Let me not say that, 'cause we don't have enough time for that, but region by region, and we'll get his best bets for the round of 64.
0:44
See if there's anything tonight in the, uh, two play-in games, maybe some NIT. And then of course, uh, get his Elite Eight Final Four, so on and so forth, uh, with Jim Root coming up.
0:54
Kelly, we'll talk some golf, some Valspar Championship, uh, thoughts as well. Um, we will do, I, I promise to do this, I will try to navigate my way through a little Survivor strategy a little later on in the show. Yep.
1:07
Um, we'll see how that goes. I'm sure, sure it'll go fine. [laughs] Um- I like when I just write things in the rundown without talking to Gil. Gil is like, Gil is gonna talk- Like, Survivor... Survivor strategy.
1:15
I'm like, "I, I am? Okay." So I'll see if I get after it. I thought we were signing up, though. We're signing up, right? M- Oh, yeah. I gotta get you on there. Yeah, you gotta get me in there, man. All right. I, I...
1:25
Okay. Yes, I will. You were throwing out promises yesterday. We're behind. Did that just me? No, no, no. I, I got Ben Wilson on there. I'll get you on there. Okay. And who was... And Will Hill was the other guy.
1:32
Well, I, I, I was really hoping you weren't gonna ask me who else you promised. Yeah. It was Will. It was Will. I think I got Drew on there and Feliko on there, too. We'll get- Okay... we'll get you in there.
1:39
Um, and then, um, we got a whole bunch of other stuff going on, too, but it's mainly college basketball today. Um, Rick Gamin will be here to talk bracket strategy with us.
1:48
JVT as well, who's obviously an NBA guy, but he's got college basketball thoughts, which means we have so much college basketball. Let me just vomit out everything else we wanted to say here.
1:56
Uh, one, the Aaron Rodgers thing. This is fantastic. Can I just say this? Uh, the- Which part?
2:01
Last week I'm on the show kind of screaming, not really, but you know how it goes, where I, where I was kind of passionate about the fact that will he just pick a team already? Yeah.
2:09
Like, look, can you be a normal human being and just tell us where you wanna play? No, he can't, 'cause he's Aaron Rodgers. All about him. That Achilles thing still bothers me.
2:17
That's where the, that's where my hatred for Aaron Rodgers starts. [laughs] Yeah, yeah, we know. I was personally offended by it. We know. Oh, yeah, I can come back this year, and all his hack doctors
2:25
on Twitter just backing him up. Anyway, uh, Cam Hayward, Cameron Hayward is like, "Yeah, like, if you wanna be a Steeler, be a Steeler, but, like, I'm not, I'm not recruiting you." I'm paraphrasing.
2:34
I was- I'm not recruiting you anymore. You know, if you don't... If you come here, great. If you don't, it's no skin off my back. I love this. By the way, the Vikings are out on Aaron Rodgers.
2:43
So what does it come down to now? Steeler, uh, you have three choices now: A, Steelers; B, Giants, which makes no sense for either the Giants or Aaron Rodgers; or C, get yo' ass out of here. Yeah. Go. Yeah. Just leave.
2:57
I still [laughs] think, I think it's funny where it's like I think Aaron Rodgers clearly wants the Vikings. The Steelers- You said, you said, Kelly Midlin had the best analysis on this of anybody.
3:06
May I give you your props on this? You said, "Aaron wants to be with the Vikings. Russell wants to be with the Steelers. And- The s- and the, and the Steelers want Aaron Rodgers.
3:16
And the Steelers, and the Steelers want Aaron. [laughs] Wait, no. Yeah, and the Steelers want Aaron Rodgers. [laughs] That's right. It's like a triangle.
3:20
Yeah, it's like this triangle where no- nobody wants to work together. No, and I reference Evan Cohen bringing that up on an ESPN radio show. I think it's dead on.
3:27
Ergo- It's like this weird musical chairs going on where nobody actually wants to be with each other. Ergo, the delay. I, I mean, it's, it... Just real quick on that. The...
3:36
If you're a Steelers fan out there, I really hope that you are still old school Steeler fan enough to not care as much about Aaron Rodgers and look at what Cameron Hayward said and said, "That's why we're the Pittsburgh Steelers."
3:49
Well, you know what? I have two Steelers fans very close to me. One is on one side, one is the other. Todd Wishnev absolutely is on that thinking. He's like, "Forget that guy," right? Yeah.
3:58
Chrissy Andrews, my mishpocha, he's like, "Yeah, I kind of want Aaron Rodgers." I mean, like, I get it. I get it. It gives you a better chance to win, but- Does it? It's a culture.
4:06
Well, w- did, have we watched the last year of football? I mean, we just saw him blow up a franchise that's gonna take years to recover from it. Oh, no.
4:11
And, like, the Steelers have been the model of consistency in the NFL. You can't... I, I don't think you can gamble with that. Um, tennis has, uh...
4:19
How could put- I was not expecting this [laughs] this much on Aaron Rodgers. Tennis has not been going well. Uh, O and two yesterday. I don't... This is kind of out of the blue for me.
4:26
I don't, I don't know what's going on here with the hards. Um, but I am firing away with three more today in Miami. Miami just started yesterday.
4:32
Um, Naomi Osaka, by the way, our, uh, futures play just got through, um, against Starod, Starodubseva. Starodubseva is how you pronounce that. Okay. I forgot I tailed you on that.
4:43
Uh, so Naomi got through, but it, she, her body language was awful. Oh, no. Three down. She was, she was down five-love before you could blink. I'm like, "What is this?" And she came back and won.
4:53
Um, today, two on the men's side, one on the ladies' side. These are all dogs, and they're all kind of big dogs.
4:57
Sebastian Baez, who's a clay court guy, going against, going up against Alexander Bublik, who is a hard court guy who hates clay. This is hard, but Bublik has been playing terribly on hard courts.
5:08
Uh, Baez, who is a pain to eliminate. Plus 146 the play for me. Then Fabian Marozsan plus 167 versus the great Gael Monfils.
5:18
Taking a shot on Marozsan, whose, uh, hard court numbers are as good, if not better than that of Monfils. And then on the ladies' side, this is a, uh, this is a real long shot. This is, uh, Yulia Grabher.
5:30
She is, um, she's Austrian. Or if you're looking at your sports book. Spelled Yulia Grab Her. [laughs] But it's pronounced Yulia Grabher.
5:40
Uh, plus 237 versus Tyra Catarina Grant, who is not used to playing on the, uh, on the main tour, and we'll see. Like, I, Grabher's... I'll say Grabher. Grabher has not been playing well either. May I just admit that?
5:54
That's why it's plus 237. But it's always interesting when someone who's a veteran plays someone brand new. Will the stage be too big? So that's worth a plus 237 shot. So those are the three plays in tennis.
6:05
By the way, I have, like, four more, and right now I'm kinda, I'll be honest, I'm kinda gun-shy. Yeah. Kinda gun-shy. So those are gonna be my three, and we'll try to, uh, turn this around in the old tennis game.
6:16
I don't, like it, it obviously gets frustrating then when you're, you get gun-shy, you don't play the things- Oh, those, the other- And those win... the other four will absolutely go 4 and 0.
6:24
It's still the me- Should I give you those? I don't, it's- Should I give you those four [laughs] or those three? Sure, I'm sure people want 'em. Yeah. But it's still the m- it's still the right mentality. Dial back.
6:31
When you're getting into the- Yeah... getting into the slumps- Yeah... you gotta dial back and reevaluate things. Uh, consider it dialed back. All right, March Madness. Um, we have the VSiN Bracket Challenge.
6:41
VSiN Bracket Challenge, are you entering this? You're in? Yeah. [laughs] I'm not in yet, but I'm going to, yes. But you're, okay. Yes, Gil. So again, now VSiN hosts and ga- well, VSiN hosts, we can't win the prize.
6:49
The prize for the VSiN Bracket Challenge, uh, for first place, 3,000 United States dollars, second place, $1,500, third place, $500.
6:59
Um, but you get to beat all of us if you l- that's the bragging rights on top of the money, right? You can bet, y- y- you can say, "Oh man, I crushed Kelly Midlin. Man- That's right... uh, that guy, he ain't nothing.
7:09
Look at me." So w- here's the deal. Again, it's 20 ATS or totals picks in round one. Then it goes to 10 in the round of 32 or round two. Then it goes four, three, two, one the rest of the way. 20?
7:22
We gotta come up with 20. 20? 20 in round one. [laughs] And by the way, I have made eight actual bets ahead- I, I started firing this morning too, yep Okay. So should I go first? Yeah, you go first.
7:32
So, so my- Yeah, yeah, yeah... so the, let's do the three that I already had. Do we have those handy? I'm on Grand Canyon plus the points against Maryland. Uh, that was one of 'em.
7:40
I'm on Georgia plus the points against Gonzaga. And then, uh, what was my third? I can't even remember what the third one was. Uh, San Diego. San Diego, yeah. Plus three.
7:47
Yeah, that's the one I hate, that I took UC San Diego plus the three against Michigan, and I, like, had instant regret about it. By the way, let me just say this before I get to more of the picks.
7:55
Last night, first four, uh, Alabama State, in a great game, uh, beat St. Francis. You see the ending of that game? Little, uh, little Hail Mary pass down the court- Yeah...
8:05
that somehow caromed right under the basket, and they score. And then, uh, St. Francis didn't do the same thing.
8:10
They're like, "I'll just bounce pass this real short to my teammate with one second left, see if that works out." Uh, so Alabama State out of the SWAC gets to play Auburn. They're 32-point favorites.
8:19
But anyway, that was a great first four game, or as the crew there was saying, they were like, "Oh my God, this is, uh, y- there's nothing as good as first four games." Seth Davis was saying that. Oh my gosh.
8:27
I'll say it again. There's nothing as great as, as first four games. So Alabama State wins. They're g- they, they're 32-point dogs against Auburn in, uh, the round of 64. But- It was a fun finish, Gil.
8:37
It was a fun finish. Was it a, was it a good game? Yeah, it was a good game. Okay.
8:40
Uh, the other game was not, and you're unlikely to see as bad a performance as you did from San Diego State as, uh, for the rest of the tournament perhaps. But North Carolina just destroys, uh, San Diego State.
8:50
And so North Carolina, remember all of the mainstream media buzz, right? How they shouldn't have been in this tournament, and we said here on the show and we're like, "None of that matters."
8:58
On the podcast, on the Megapod, I'm like, "I'm not even interested in talking about that because it has nothing to do with betting," right? And this is the main, the main takeaway from that game. By the way, 95 to 68,
9:09
just squeaking by the four-and-a-half-point cover for North Carolina.
9:12
The main point of that game last night should be to remind everybody when you're making your bets or when you're filling out your brackets, but specifically when you're filling out your brackets, nobody knows anything.
9:22
I'm on this network. This network, they know. But I'm just saying, like, all the buzz, all the noise, there is n- there's never a worse signal-to-noise, uh, ratio than there is before March Madness.
9:32
Because within three minutes or five minutes of that game starting last night, you knew, oh, Carolina's gonna destroy them.
9:38
And remember, when these games start tomorrow and, and Friday, it's gonna take three minutes of some of these games before you're like, "Oh, everything everybody's been saying is dead wrong." Mm-hmm.
9:46
That's the big takeaway. Anyway, I added five more this morning on our, on our way to 20 to, uh, get in this bracket challenge.
9:53
So in addition to the three I just mentioned, uh, I did grab Liberty plus the points, the Liberty Flames plus the points.
10:01
Uh, that game, I wanna get the, uh, schedule right on all this, the Liberty game is in the, uh, west, excuse me, is in the east region. That's on Friday morning.
10:12
Uh, they're catching seven against Oregon, against Dana Altman's Oregon, uh, Ducks. Liberty 25 and 0 when you don't crack 70 points against them. They allow 63 points per game.
10:22
Uh, the total is really low, and you're catching seven points, the Conference USA tournament champs. Thank you very much, I'll take the seven. I am on North Carolina.
10:31
Um, speaking of that, a first four team has gotten to the round of 32 very often, and I am taking North Carolina. Uh, that one is in the south region. That's on Friday against Ole Miss.
10:43
North Carolina now a tick of a favorite even, so I'm taking the Heels there. Yale plus seven, that's in the south region on Thursday. That's tomorrow.
10:51
I'm taking, uh, the Bulldogs, back-to-back Ivy champs, taking them plus the touchdown against Texas A&M. Texas A&M, 17.0 second-chance points per game this year, highest in D1.
11:02
I will expect Yale's fundamentals to work out and box out. Yeah. I'm on Yale, too. I'm with you on that one. Okay. Then I'm taking Drake. This is, uh, also tomorrow. This is in the west region.
11:12
Drake, the 11-six game against Mizzou, the fighting Ben Wilson and Jeff Parlays of Mizzou. I'm taking Drake. They've got the, uh, number one scoring D in the nation, holding their opponents to 58.4 points a game.
11:22
They slow the game down. I like a slow pace if you're giving me six and a half, so I'm taking Drake there.
11:28
And then the only other one I've, I've got so far, Arkansas, uh, taking an SEC team plus the points, plus the five against Kansas. That's a Thursday game in Providence in the western region. So that's tomorrow as well.
11:39
So I've added five, so eight total plays. I gotta come up with 12 more for the VSiN Bracket Challenge, vsin.com/champweek. Coming back with Jim Root from Three Man Week next.
11:57
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter? Start with smarter insights.
12:02
Right now, you can check out March Madness futures from Mike Szombath and Dave Tooley, Greg Peterson's best bets in college hoops, and previews of today's First Four, and for all first-round games.
12:11
Later today, you can check out Zach Cohen's best bets in the NBA, Jonathan Davis' NHL best bets, and Josh, and, uh, pardon me, Josh Applebaum's College Basketball Sharp Report.
12:20
To get access to all the articles and betting guides on vsin.com right now, you can sign up for as little as $9.99. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. That VSiN betting guide looking good, too, by the way.
12:33
Mm-hmm. The, uh, College Basketball March Madness betting guide. There is a lot in there. Lot in there. Let's go, Alexander. We got tweets at Beating The Book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback.
12:41
Let me navigate towards, uh, through some of these. This is from, on yesterday's show. Let's see. Uh, Nick Zimmerman, "Love the, uh, A&G show, fellas," [laughs] as Todd called it, the A&G show. Yeah, the A&G show.
12:52
[laughs] Uh, fellas, "And listen daily since the beginning of VSiN. Going through my dad's old sports card collection, found a gem. Now I need to get this bad boy signed by the legend."
13:00
He's got a Brent Musburger card that he'd like signed. All right, we can make that happen maybe. That's very nice. I got a Brent Musburger action figure. I do, too. Misspelled action figure. Misspelled action figure.
13:10
I have that as well. Uh, QC, quote, "Coach," glad to have QC back on the old Twitter talk. He says, "So glad to have Joe Peta back on baseball. He's truly," uh, what does he say? "Sweet generous thinker on the game."
13:21
I don't know that Latin there. Sweet generous? Is that, is that Latin? Um, let's see here. This is, and this is Utopia. This is a typ- typical Twitter talk. You ready for this? Mm-hmm. Talking about Joe Peta.
13:30
He goes, "Where can I find his previous picks?" He cited claiming he offered eight total wins picks. What? I love when tw- claims. Yeah, we're making it up.
13:39
He totally wasn't on last week giving out five before he gave out three yesterday. We, we lied. Uh, may- maybe he's just so stunned. We just made it up, claiming. He's so stunned at Joe's, uh, coming out of retirement.
13:48
Claiming. I love the words. Uh, this is, uh, oh, Primetime, Cowboys_1, "Yo. Hey, man. I was filling out my bracket and suddenly had this overwhelming sense of comfort.
13:58
I remembered that America's team, our Dallas Cowboys, have won three, count them, three Super Bowls- [laughs]... since the, uh, the w- wooft Skins last appeared in one." Oh, God. [laughs] Is that what you're going with?
14:09
Is that what you're going with? Really? [laughs] He's like J. Daniels and the Skins got into the championship game. He's like, "What can I hold on to? I'll come up with something."
14:17
Uh, by the way, baseball overnight, just, can I just say this again? Man, whew. Um, Dodgers beat the Cubs again, so 2-0 in Tokyo. Not good for our Mets first to 10, nor our Twins to win March, April. Hmm.
14:30
The hope was a split there in Tokyo, so. Hot take, I think this Ohtani kid's gonna be pretty good. Yeah, he hit a homer. That's his first of the year.
14:37
Bainbridge Deweese, Fezzik's NIT overs angle was six and one last night. Curious if that applies first round. We'll ask Fezzik about that. And, uh, let's see.
14:45
Joe Scag says, "As a Steelers fan since Dick Schiner was the quarterback, and with all due respect to Mr. Andrews, uh, absolutely no Steelers fan wants Aaron Rogers." Okay.
14:55
Uh, and then JasonH11, "Any chance Grabher will match up with volynets," or volleyball? He said, "No, no, no, no chance here in the first round." Let's talk some college hoops.
15:03
Jim Root, ladies and gentlemen, from Three Man Weave, one-third of the Three Man Weave crew, who's actually on the strip right now. You follow him at Second Chance Points. That's with the number two.
15:14
Second Chance Points, @3manweave3mw_cbb. He's on the strip, but, uh, he's a prima donna, so he couldn't come down here to the studio. How you doing, Jim? [laughs] I'm good.
15:23
Yeah, guys, it's good to get boots back on the ground here.
15:26
They used to let me live here, and, and now it's only like, uh, five days they let me stop in in, in March and hang out, and then they sh- then they kick me out again. Let, let's start with tonight, first four games.
15:37
We have two again tonight, and we have the NIT and rando college hoops. Do you have anything tonight? I will be on Xavier tonight. That, that's, that's the one I like the most of those two games.
15:49
I mean, I think those 62 games can be pretty toss-upy, as we saw last night with the, the seesaw back and forth and the frenetic final minute. But, uh, I like Xavier against Texas.
15:59
I, I think they're a better coached team. They're both teams pretty reliant on, on guard shot making, and I just trust the shot makers a little more on Xavier.
16:07
Conwell's 38 points in the Big East tournament showed he's really gonna show up in the postseason. Uh, and there's a little sneaky revenge angle here on the 2023 NCAA tournament when Texas beat Xavier in the Sweet 16.
16:20
Uh, Deshaun Miller was here, Zach Freemantle, Xavier's big man, was here, and Jerome Hunter, uh, their, their, uh, forward off the bench was there.
16:27
So maybe a little extra incentive, uh, for a team I already think is better coached and, and just a little bit better overall. Okay. Um, just making fun, by the way. You didn't have to come down here. Where are you?
16:37
Are you mid-strip? [laughs] Where are you? Mid-strip, north strip, south strip? We're gonna narrow you down so the paparazzi gets to you. Sapphire, Rhino. Where are you? We're, we are mid-strip. Yeah, no.
16:44
So do you want my room number, see if people come pound on the door? [laughs] Social Security number, all that. Yeah, be good. Yeah, yeah, exactly. [laughs] What'd you say, Sapphire Rhino? Yeah. [laughs] I got that.
16:52
All right. Yeah. [laughs] Let's, let's do this, uh, let's do this for, since the, uh, the way that this goes chronologically on Thursday and Friday is it's kind of groups of four, right?
17:01
We play eight games before there's a little mi- not, this is not really a mini break, but there is kind of a natural break in the middle. But let's do this in groups of four chronologically.
17:10
So we'll start with Thursday morning when we are, uh, just leaving air tomorrow. Creighton and Louisville will, uh, start the festivities.
17:19
Creighton Louisville, High Point Purdue, Montana Wisconsin, and SIU Edwardsville Houston, which is the lowest line total in the entire round of 64. We'll start with that group of four.
17:30
Creighton Louisville, High Point Purdue, Montana Wisconsin, SIU Edwardsville Houston. Any plays in that first group?
17:38
Well, I'm gonna, I'm gonna play Louisville small in the opener, but that's one I'm, I'm not overly strong feeling about. It's just the first game. I gotta get something out there.
17:45
I feel like I lose the first game every single year, so that's, that's not one I'm gonna push people to follow. I like the total in the second game, though. High Point Purdue, the over, it's in the 153 and a half.
17:56
I'm actually surprised it hasn't moved at all this, this, uh, this week. But I think both these teams are just gonna score like crazy against each other.
18:04
Purdue's ball screen offense against high points drop coverage defense I think should really light them up.
18:10
Braden Smith living in the mid-range pull-up jumpers, and if they do end up sending help, he's such a great passer and I, I don't know that High Point's got a great answer for Trey Kaufman-Renn, uh, as a post up guy.
18:21
But on the other end, uh, High Point's got a ton of talent. They, they really mined the transfer portal for some down transfer guys, and they've got scorers that can get downhill. Uh, and Purdue's got no rim defense.
18:31
One of the worst two point percentage defenses in the entire country. I, I think both teams can score at will, and the fact that they're gonna score should let it get up and down a little bit, teams not getting stops.
18:42
So I, I think that sets up well for, for a lot of points there. And you mentioned the low total in Houston-SIUE. I'm gonna be playing that first half under.
18:51
Uh, I think Houston's defense is just gonna be a major rude awakening for SIUE, who hasn't seen anything like that, uh, for a long, long time, and especially not in the OVC.
19:01
And maybe that game loosens up in the second half when it turns into a blowout, so I'm gonna try to guard against that by just playing the first half under, uh, and maybe even the SIUE first half team total under if I really wanna get specific with it.
19:14
All right. High Point-Purdue total is 153 and a half, and the, uh, Houston-SIU Edwardsville, uh, game total is 126 and a half.
19:21
And, uh, Jim's gonna play the first half under, and maybe the SIU Edwardsville team total under in the first half as well. Next group of games, Alabama State-Auburn, obviously a 32-point spread there.
19:30
McNeese-Clemson, VCU-BYU, and Georgia-Gonzaga. What do you do with that group? Man, this, this, this is a tough one. I, the, all these one-seed spreads are so high, I'm, I'm kind of like th- it's up to the favorite.
19:43
Like, does Auburn wanna win by 40? 'Cause they can. Uh, and I, I just, I, I'm not really willing to, to gamble much on that. My favorite in this group is the McNeese-Clemson under. Um, 133 and a half.
19:56
Maybe you can find 134 out there in the market. I still like it at 133 and a half. I just think both teams, the way they defend i- is more to slow you down.
20:05
Clemson'll throw out a press, but it's truly just to make you eat up the shot clock. Uh, they have the second longest average defensive possession length in the entire country per KenPom.
20:15
Just really make you get into the shot clock, take some, some tough jumpers late as your back is against the wall there. And McNeese is somewhat similar.
20:23
Uh, and, and they've also shown a propensity to slow it down when they play top competition. I think back to the...
20:28
They played at Alabama in Tuscaloosa in November, and it, it was like one of the slower games Alabama's played this season. So I think as they play up in competition, they're willing to slow it down.
20:38
Clemson really wants to slow it down. It's a low possession game there. Hopefully, the athleticism and size on both sides keeps the efficiency down. I like that under 134, 133 and a half. What about tomorrow night, then?
20:50
Wofford, uh, Tennessee, Arkansas-Kansas, Yale-A&M, Drake-Missouri to start things out. Oh, man. Drake-Missouri could be painful for me, Gill. [laughs] I'm not excited about that one.
21:02
Just the, the stylistic clash between the slow-down Drake well-coached team and, and up-tempo Missouri. Uh, but I think my favorite here is Yale.
21:10
Uh, I, I will acknowledge that the spot is not awesome, having played on Sunday and then having to ship west and play Thursday at, uh, altitude in Denver a- against a really physical team.
21:21
But I just think Yale sets up well in the matchup. Like, they can battle on the defensive glass. They've got some real size, one of the rare Ivy teams that has paint size and athleticism.
21:31
And then they're just simply the better shot-making team. John Poulakis, you know, was a bit of a star in March last year against Auburn.
21:38
I think he can do the same against Texas A&M that's really compact defensively and lets you shoot over the top. And then Bez Mbeng, their, Yale's point guard, is a three-time Ivy Defensive Player of the Year.
21:48
Perfect guy to throw at Wade Taylor and then hopefully take him away. As long as they're on the defensive glass, I, I really like that matchup for Yale.
21:55
Uh, Jim is a Mizzou grad for those who missed, uh, why he's, uh- Yeah. Yeah... not looking forward to that. And then finally, we got 30 seconds. Utah State-UCLA, Omaha-St.
22:03
John's, UCSD and Michigan, and UNC Wilmington-Texas Tech. Anything in that final group? I'm jumping on UC San Diego. Loving the matchup. I think they forced a million turnovers in that one against Michigan.
22:15
Uh, and then my favorite one, uh, the first round here, I love these first to 10, first to 15 bets, you know, and I'm gonna go Omaha first to 10, first to 15. They make threes. You just catch St.
22:25
John's a little sleepy, and then that's a, that's a fun little plus money cash there to cap the night. All right. We'll do Friday's games with Jim.
22:32
We'll get his, uh, Elite Eight, Final Four, and champion on the other side as well. Jim Root from Three Man Weave right here courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line on the Numbers Game at VSAN, the sports betting network.
22:43
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23:37
Get access to the best betting insights at sharpplays.com. Gill Alexander, Kelly, uh, Bidlin here as well. Um, Jim Root joins us once again, one-third of the Three Man Weave crew.
23:47
And before we launch into the, uh, Friday games, uh, chronologically, we'll do them once again on Friday in, in groups of four.
23:54
Um, what Jim was referring to in the last segment, again, for, for those who are new to sports betting, the first to 10, the first to 15.
24:00
So sportsbooks, and I wanna give Jay Rude, uh, my buddy, former vice president of racing sports at, uh, MGM, credit for this. He was the first person to put these up.
24:08
At MGM Books, I don't know, was it like 10 years ago, 11 years ago? Somewhere in that pocket. Sounds right. You would be in an MGM book They, they tried first to 20 and then the first to 10.
24:18
First to 20 was too favorable for the books. First to 10 was too favorable for the bettors. First to, first to 15 was the proper strike zone.
24:26
But the biggest cheer in any sportsbook during any game was if a dog got to 15 before the favorite- Mm-hmm... did.
24:33
And then that same group of people cheering that they won that bet would then turn, 'cause they're all betting the favorite anyway, and so they would root for the other team the rest of the way. It, it's still- Yeah...
24:41
it's still, I think, my favorite just being in Las Vegas for a big sporting event, and if you're just randomly in one of the big books- Awesome... like Circa. Yeah.
24:50
And you, you ha- you most likely have no idea what's going on, right? When someone hits 15 in the second game of the NCAA tournament and the half the place goes nuts, you're like, "What? Wait, I don't get it."
25:03
This is so great. "I don't get it. We're in the first half. The score is 15 to nine." I remember some of those great Kentucky teams, fading them first 15. It was always like a $2 cash.
25:10
It's like, you know, ba- basically hitting like, you know, a s- a sucky baseball team against the, uh, the best team in baseball in a given night in a fif- in a race to 15 point kind of thing in every one of these games.
25:21
Jim joins us once again @secondchancepoints, @3MW_CBB for all the Three Man Weave stuff. Let's go to Friday, Jim. Uh, first group of four games when we get off the air here.
25:31
The first to tip on Friday will be Baylor Mississippi State, also, uh, early Robert Morris Alabama, Lipscomb Iowa State, and Colorado State Memphis.
25:40
They just keep sta- sticking us with a challenging eight, nine game to start the day. So I'm, I'm staying [laughs] away from Baylor Mississippi State. But I like Memphis.
25:48
That- that's been one of my favorite bets throughout, as soon as this bracket came out and the lines, uh, and we saw that Colorado State was favored.
25:54
I, I know Colorado State's ahead of Memphis in KenPom and, and Bart Torvik and some of the predictive sites, so that, that's kind of why the line is where it is.
26:02
But that's based on all games, and Memphis is terrible as a big favorite. That's kind of kept their analytical rankings down all season.
26:10
But when they're across from a team that's e- equal or, or even better than them, uh, when they're an underdog, they've been awesome this year. Against top 50 competition, they're a top 25 team.
26:21
Against top 50 teams, Colorado State is 100th per Bart Torvik.
26:24
So this kind of game is where Memphis is better, and maybe it's gonna play out like UNC did last night, where that's the right level of competition for Memphis, for U- for Memphis, for UNC.
26:36
So I like getting e- even a point or anything, or just taking the plus money money line with Memphis against Colorado State. And plus, get to fade the Mountain West again there, Gil.
26:44
I, I can't, uh, I can't take any issue with that after how it went last night. A lot of Colorado State love out here for Cal, uh, for, uh, for the Mountain West team. But, uh, Memphis just got athletes, man.
26:54
I, I'm with you on that. Second flurry of games on Friday. Vandy Saint Mary's, Carolina after their destruction of San Diego State yesterday against Ole Miss, Grand Canyon Maryland and Norfolk State and Florida.
27:07
Yeah, I like Saint Mary's and North Carolina here. Um, both match up wise. I think Saint Mary's is gonna slow Vanderbilt down. I mean, Saint Mary's slows Gonzaga down three times a year and, and frustrates them.
27:19
I think they can do that against Vandy. And Saint Mary's one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Vandy's really small up front.
27:25
They sacrifice size for speed in recruiting, and I, I think Saint Mary's can out physical them, handle them on the glass.
27:30
And as long as Saint Mary's doesn't turn it over a ton, which I do not think they will, uh, I, I think they're gonna be okay there, so laying the, the three and a half or the four.
27:39
And then UNC in a tight spread, I was a little surprised to see them favored, but, uh, you know, the difference between pick 'em and, and one and a half isn't all that much. And I just think it's a wonderful match up.
27:50
Uh, Ole Miss is, is, is a little smaller defensively, so they switch a ton. Their goal is to keep you on the perimeter, force you to play isolation. And North Carolina is, like, totally content in isolation.
28:02
Whether it's RJ Davis, Seth Trimble, uh, even Cadeau getting downhill. They've been a great isolation offense all season, both in frequency and in efficiency. I think that ends up setting well, setting up well for them.
28:13
And, and we often see these play-in teams be real successful i- in the 11 six game in the second round. I think the Heels are gonna be the next one in line there.
28:21
Yeah, Heels favored by one in the aforementioned game, and, uh, Saint Mary's favored by four.
28:27
And once again, what, what, uh, Jim is talking about with the first four, first four team has reached the round of 32, meaning they win their first round game, 12 of the last 13 years.
28:36
At least one first four team has gotten to the round of 32 12 of the last 13 years. To the, uh, evening games on Friday. Troy Kentucky, New Mexico Marquette, Akron Arizona, Oklahoma Connecticut.
28:51
I'm certainly tempted to, to fade the Mountain West again with Marquette and going against New Mexico. It, it, since 2006, the Mountain West is 33% against the spread in NCAA tournament games.
29:02
It's, it's pretty staggering. Uh, so thinking about Marquette, not sure I love Shaka Smart as a favorite. He's more of an underdog type of coach. So instead, I'm looking at the over in Akron Arizona.
29:13
Uh, Akron is built to play up-tempo. They play four guards basically at all times. It's got four guys, like, 6'3" and smaller on the floor. And Arizona is going to dominate them in the paint.
29:25
Uh, I know Tommy Lloyd's has his str- had his struggles in the NCAA tournament, Gil. I know you're not a [laughs] huge fan yourself. But, uh, this is the match up they can, they can thrive.
29:33
Getting up and down, high possession game. This isn't Princeton that's gonna slow them down and make them execute in the half court.
29:40
I think this one is, is set up well for a lot of points, uh, back and forth, and potentially even an Arizona, you know, 20-point win given their strength in the paint.
29:49
I, I love that you remember my disdain for Tommy Lloyd through the years. [laughs] Thank you, Jim. Sure do. [laughs] Yeah. All right.
29:54
And then, uh, we, we don't have four yet obviously lined for the late games on Friday, because we have, uh, two games, uh, two teams still to be decided tonight. But Bryant Michigan State, Liberty Oregon on Friday night.
30:05
Anything in either of those two? I'm thinking about Michigan State.
30:10
Uh, the numbers a tad high, but Bryant is a little bit like Akron, where they're gonna play at a breakneck pace And that does great for them in the America East when they're the most athletic team and can kind of take down Maine and whoever they're playing against and, and just out-athlete them, out-physical them.
30:27
But you're not gonna do that against Michigan State. That front line is just entirely too physical. They're gonna dominate the glass.
30:33
I mean, Bryant played Grand Canyon this year, another team that's, like, roughly equivalent to them in athletes. It was a 91 possession game and Bryant lost by 46.
30:42
A- and their, their leading scorer was out, but I, I just fear their style playing up against the team with more talent, and Michigan State's certainly plenty well-coached.
30:52
So that, that's one where I'm leaning towards the favorite. Um, it, it... we don't know the match-up yet for Illinois, as you mentioned, but I kind of like whoever wins.
31:01
Whether it is Xavier, who I'm betting on in the First Four game, or Texas, uh, I just think they're kind of set up offensively to take advantage of Illinois' defensive structure, which is basically, "We'll let you live in the mid-range and take jumpers," but then Xavier and Texas are happy to do that because they've got really good off the dribble shot creators.
31:19
So I think that ended up being a tough draw for Illinois, and I'll probably ride again with the, the play-in team.
31:24
We'll, we'll go back to that stat you mentioned at the top, that, uh, those teams have been really successful over the years. Yeah. It's interesting.
31:30
Illinois is, uh, we got all kinds of opinions, 'cause Will Hill has them going to the Elite Eight as well. So Elite Eight versus a first-round knockout.
31:37
Uh, speaking of the Elite Eight, who do you have in your Elite Eight? Yeah, Elite Eight, uh, I'm looking at, at a lot of chalk for the one seeds. I've got all four one seeds making it.
31:47
Uh, so Auburn, Duke, Florida, Houston all getting there. I mean, they're, they're all, like,
31:51
not generationally good teams, but they're darn close, uh, just with the way they grade out analytically and I, I think they're all that good. Um, I would go with Michigan State and Auburn in the South regional.
32:03
Um, in the West region I got Florida and Texas Tech. Midwest, Houston, and I've had a real tough time with who to pair them against- [laughs]... 'cause I don't trust really any of those teams.
32:14
I'm thinking about a Texas, Xavier, uh, Elite Eight run there out of the, out of the play-in game. So taking on Houston there in the Elite Eight.
32:21
And then Duke and Wisconsin in the East is where I'm, where I'm landing on that one. Final four, all the ones?
32:29
No, I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna knock one out here, and it kind of is the darling that, that everybody's into right now. I'm gonna say Texas Tech beats Florida in the West regional final. I, I think Florida's fantastic.
32:40
I, I've get, I'm impressed with them every time I watch them, but I picked Texas Tech to the Final Four in the pre-season, and they haven't done a whole lot to really knock me off that take.
32:49
Um, and I think they're healthier, especially by that game. Darian Williams, Chance McMillen will hopefully be close to 100%.
32:56
I think they can somewhat match Florida's physicality, and, uh, Texas Tech's my surprise to go with Houston, Duke, and Auburn. And who wins the championship game? Who over who? Oh, I've gone back and forth with this.
33:09
Auburn was my pre-season pick, but they've kind of lost their joy. They seem to be playing under pressure rather than enjoying themselves, enjoying playing basketball. So I'm gonna go with Houston.
33:19
Houston taking down Texas Tech in an all Texas final game there. Wow. And a victory for the formula it would be. Uh, Three Man Weave podcast, you go bracket by bracket, Jim? Yep, every single game in the first round.
33:32
Check it out, it's out there. Two-plus hours right now on our podcast feed. Two-plus hours. We only did an hour 15. They got two-plus hours. I'm halfway through. Thank you, Jim. Enjoy. Kelly on golf. Falspar next.
33:50
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Okay, I said earlier this was vsin.com/champweek. That's something else. The contest is vsin.com/contest. Oh. What, how did I confirm that wrong then?
34:05
I don't [laughs] know. [laughs] I looked to you for confirmation and you steered me wrongly. [laughs] So- Well, vsin.com/champweek takes you... VSIN's Mark, VSIN's March bracket challenge.
34:14
You can sign up at vsin.com/contest. That's to sign up and review all the official rules. Free to enter. You can showcase your handicapping skills for a chance to win $5,000 in cash prizes.
34:24
Participants will make 40 picks against the spreads or on totals over the course of six tournament rounds. Again, it's 20, 10, four, three, two, one in terms of number of ATS or totals plays per round.
34:36
Registration open now, and the contest runs through the championship game on April 7th. $3,000 first prize. Let's go.
34:43
And a whole bunch of VSIN people, uh, hosts are entering as well, so, uh, you can have bragging rights over them, including us, including me and Kelly. Uh, we get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciated.
34:52
This is from [laughs] this is from, uh, what is this, uh, Jesse Welch. "Gil very sheepishly to Kelly, 'Why are you getting quiet?'
34:59
While he was just yelling at him one minute prior for jumping down his throat about not having Jason [laughs] on the line yet. 'No, it wasn't not having Jason, it's that I interrupted my intro of Jason.'
35:07
I love this family," he says. "Ha, ha, I love this family." Thank you, Jesse. Yep. [laughs] That's so great. Monty Spires, "Just turned you guys on. Let's hear your eight again." [laughs] My eight picks.
35:19
Spence, "Great show on Max's Bookie." Hey, that's our buddy Nick Bakay's show. Bookie. "I just discovered it recently.
35:24
Can be a little over the top, but certainly more entertaining than White Lotus for gamblers at least."
35:29
Ed2112 or 2112, "Three times now I've given season three and The White Lotus a chance, and each time I've bailed and watched old Hogan Heroes episodes."
35:38
Scott, New York Mets 16, "Come on, Jason, you know that ring came out of one of your claw machines. Congrats." Trip Tepper. Awesome.
35:45
"If an ANG listener can find this, the closed caption TV footage of Jason's engagement footage or Fezzik's Love Connection episode, they should get an invite to Gil's secret sushi haunt." Yes, they should.
35:55
That sounds fair. That sounds- That sounds fair. Yeah... that sounds fair. And Chris Heath, "Jason with the long tease. Can't wait till Friday." Uh, let's talk brackets.
36:02
Let's talk Survivor with Rick Gamin, ladies and gentlemen. You can follow him on Twitter at rickrungood. Love that Twitter handle.
36:08
He's a golf data analyst at CBS Sports, and proclaims that he knows not one name of one college basketball player, but that ain't the point. Is that true, Rick? I gave you guys a chance to get out of this.
36:20
[laughs] Like, I d- I don't know why we're doing this. I cannot name a s- single player in college basketball. Uh, a- I'm, I'm good at math, I like the bracket math problem that we have, but th- this is...
36:32
My, my basketball knowledge is basically zilch. Well, give us the b- give us the bracket strategy, though, that you oh-so-love.
36:40
Yeah, so the, the short of it is we have a very rare opportunity with brackets of, of understanding the probabilities of each team advancing through each round, and then also what you and your peers are going to do.
36:53
So the, the very simple way to do this, guys, is, you know, you look at Duke, for example.
36:58
Uh, they're probably going to win the national championship 18% of the time, something in there, but they're being selected in, like, 28% of brackets. Well, that's, that's too much.
37:08
If you're in a large bracket pool and you're selecting Duke to win the national championship, you are doing it wrong. The most likely outcome is that they are not going to win it.
37:17
So now you've got to start this, uh, you know, domino effect of trying to find better options. You gotta find better national champions. There are a couple of, of good teams with great leverage.
37:27
Then you start working through your Final Four.
37:29
So we can, we can kinda attack this any way you want, but it's one big math problem to find the teams that have a higher rate of winning or going to a round that you predict them to go to than what your peers and what everybody in this, in the industry is actually selecting.
37:44
And is a simple site like ESPN.com a great way to gauge those percentages, Rick? Well, they've changed their layout. So they used to have a page called Who Picked Whom, which is great.
37:54
It would tell you in real time the s- the, the rate of brackets that were selected for every team through every round. They've gone away- they've gotten away with that. Um, Yahoo, I believe, still does it.
38:05
Uh, that's, that's available, but, um, you know, there are always, like, like, Pool Genius will have it on their site.
38:10
There are a couple of sites out there, but ESPN actually has removed that functionality from their- Hmm... from their site. Okay, so some of the others. Yeah. Any other little kernels on, on just standard brackets?
38:18
But that, that's a great macro statement. Yeah, I mean, for, for brackets, like, I don't think people realize that picking the national championship is worth, uh, picking 10, uh, 32 first-round games correctly, right?
38:30
Like, you are not, you are not dead until your champion is dead, right?
38:34
So when you go, like, five and I don't even know how many games there are, five and 11 in the first, on the first day, like, you're good as long as your national champion is still, is still in.
38:44
So, uh, this is the long game. The, the points ramp up exponentially as we go through these rounds. Unless you're in an upset rewarded pool, right? In which case- Sure... you should be picking upsets left and right.
38:54
That's right. That also factors into, uh, right, the, the EV, the expected value of the points that you are going to receive. Those teams, of course, become more valuable. Okay.
39:02
Can we talk a little Survivor for a second? Because I'm all about this. I love Survivor. [laughs] I've, I've been for years, for years on this show, I've been saying Survivor is the move. Survivor is the move.
39:10
And only now do I feel like it's gaining steam, the steam that it deserves. My biggest...
39:16
So, so if I were to give someone Survivor strategy upfront, the first thing I would do is I would relate it to NFL Survivor, and I would say, okay, unlike NFL Survivor, which is 20...
39:25
Well, here at Circuit, it's 20, but let's say it's 18 weeks, right? You just can't pick the same team twice, but it's a linear thing. Obviously, the brackets make it multidimensional.
39:33
You can lose by, um, by just getting knocked out in traditional Survivor fashion, or you can lose by not having any teams left. Right.
39:40
[laughs] So the question I would ask you is, because my philosophy is, because we talk about this a little bit in NFL Survivor, we're like, oh, you know, we had some people like, "Oh, I just map out my whole thing from the beginning on a napkin."
39:52
And then we have other people who are like, "Nah, I don't do any of that mapping out. I, I just play to survive each week."
39:58
And there are some people that have a hybrid of that where they're like, "I play to survive for a little while," it's kind of me, "uh, and then I kind of plan it if I get five weeks deep into it."
40:05
My thing with, with s- uh, N- NCAA Survivor is I do believe in that hybrid. I believe in... You know, and, and mine is upset rewarded too. So I'm picking upsets in the first round certainly.
40:19
Maybe before the second round, but certainly before the Sweet 16, then I'm doing the mapping out. Do you generally agree with that, or do you believe in mapping from the, from the outset?
40:28
No, I would actually skew towards never mapping and just being in the moment at all times. I do, I'm okay with the hybrid apper- approach, but the, the more information, the better.
40:36
Now, you know, with, with these NCAA Survivors, you're usually getting, you know, like, like, whatever happens on Friday is not really being impacted by what happens on Thursday, so doing them one, you know, one round at a time, I suppose, is, is, is not a bad thing.
40:49
But yeah, this is a lot of... The, the thing that I think people miss in NFL Survivor is future value.
40:53
You know, if you have the Kansas City Chiefs, who are probably gonna be favored, uh, somewhat heavily in the majority of their games, you know, are you choosing them now, or do, are there gonna be seven situations or seven weeks in the future that you're gonna be able to use them?
41:06
That's, that's this, but on, on steroids, right?
41:09
Like, future value here, when you look at a team like Wisconsin, who is incredibly likely to win their opening round game 93% of the time, but then it drops to something like, hey, maybe they only win their second game 63% of the time, 58% of the time, that's what you're looking for.
41:22
A, a really high value team right now whose future value falls off a cliff, and that's the thing that I think people screw up a little bit in NFL Survivor, but here it's like it's happening at a much more rapid pace.
41:34
Yeah, so another way to put that is, like, so if you're in Survivor for the first time, let, let's say you, you know, you pick a seven over a 15, and you pick an 11 over a 14.
41:44
Okay, well let's the, let's say the seven gets knocked out. You obviously don't want that. The ideal would be for that seven to win that game, right?
41:51
That, that seed to win that game, and then to be eliminated very quickly thereafter. Yes.
41:56
The other thing you don't want is, let's say you pick one of those correctly, let's say the 11 over the 14, but that 11 ends up going really far. That's a bad thing, too, in the wash of it, right? So you- Yes...
42:09
that's what you're really trying to navigate. Correct. The pro-- I've, the, I had this problem, I think it was last year with, uh, again, I don't remember.
42:16
I- Illinois maybe, something like that, where, you know, it, they just, they just kept winning. They just- Yeah... went too far. Like, stop winning. You, you have to be- [laughs] That's right...
42:23
you have to be eliminated, like, next. That's the point, because you're gonna end up running out of teams.
42:29
So yeah, there, there is a, a situation where, um, your picks could be, you know, the teams that you have already chosen are going too far.
42:36
So you really do, I think, have to take on more risk, guys, than, than you probably want to because, uh, you, you, you have that added factor of running out of teams. That's, that's a pre- a big problem for people.
42:48
It's so good, 'cause y- that's so right. Like, even in, in addition to your picture, like, stop winning over there. [laughs] Um, because you have to have enough teams left.
42:55
And the only other thing, and I mentioned this yesterday, but I think this is the biggest sort of survivor nugget that I could give people is also be aware that the games that are on Thursday, Saturday versus Friday, Sunday this week don't necessarily play out that way when the Sweet 16 starts.
43:09
You have to make sure, 'cause most of these are day by day, right? You don't survive rounds. Yeah. You survive days. So you have to be aware of that in the whole puzzle as well. Yes. So the, the scheduling is critical.
43:20
The way that, um, right, the way that they advance through the bracket is important, and then, like, w- obviously the paths, right?
43:26
You've, like, when, when you start getting into the Sweet 16, you've gotta say, "Okay, well, i- if I pick this team, does that ruin my paths of having anybody left," right?
43:35
So there, there is a lot more strategy involved than I think people who just wanna sit down and say, "Oh, I'm gonna be at the bar all day, and I'll take this team, and then I'll take that team."
43:43
It's like, well, you're gonna have to look through the bracket and play a, a little bit of a crystal ball game for, for, to get this thing right.
43:50
Where, Rick, do, uh, if they wanna all the information about survivor and bracket, and brackets from you, where do they go? My YouTube channel, RickRunGood, would be the best place for that.
43:58
Um, but yeah, it's, you know, golf 364 days a year, and then one day gets allocated to, to March Madness. [laughs] Dude can't name a player. I'll, I'll plug the golf for him. [laughs] RickRunGood.com.
44:09
I use it every single week. If you're looking at golf data, uh, in, in handicapping golf, you need to use his website. I use it every single week. Watch this, I'm gonna prove you wrong. I'm sure.
44:17
Rick, Cooper Flagg, where does he go to school? Uh, Florida. Oh, man. [laughs] Oh, come on. You're really... Wow. Thank you, Rick. Appreciate it. Rick David, everybody.
44:28
Money Moves with Story next right here at VSAN, the Sports Betting Network.
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