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Mar 19, 2026
Best Of A Numbers Game | March 19, 2026
Best Of A Numbers Game | March 19, 2026
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46:22
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Transcript
0:00
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1:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander. You've gone beast in. Good Thursday morning to you.
1:11
Not just any Thursday morning, the morning of the madness. It is a numbers game.
1:15
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlack, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158, live from Circa Resort Casino in downtown Las Vegas, which is bustling not quite yet, but it is 7:00 AM Pacific.
1:31
But, hey, there are a lot of people upstairs that, that, uh, don't normally exist- Yeah... on a, on a Thursday morning like this. It will be bustling here shortly.
1:39
It is funny you say that though, Gil, 'cause I actually, I made sure to get in here a little earlier- Yeah...
1:43
'cause I needed to do something, uh, d- a couple things at the book, and, uh, I thought, I actually thought there'd be a line. Y- yesterday it was wild by the time we left.
1:50
Game start or tip-off two hours and 15 minutes from now, when the, uh, East eight-nine play, Ohio State and TCU, and then it's just a crescendo of madness the rest of the day. This show brought to you by Prophet X.
2:04
Uh, today on the show it is a normal Thursday, Zach and Crack. Zach Cohen on college basketball. He dives in, he dips his toe in college hoops. That's right. We'll do the standard NBA and tennis with him as well.
2:15
And of course, Crack unscripted. Uh, Crack will be here when the games begin in our final hour. Unscripted with, uh, Bill Krackomberger. We'll find out what he does during March Madness as well.
2:25
Um, and then a, a couple other treats here today. Jim Root will be in studio. James Patrick Root from Three Man Weave, one-third of the Three Man Weavers. Mm-hmm.
2:34
Uh, with his final thoughts right before the madness begins. That'll be next hour. And Peter Keating. Can I just... I, I gotta...
2:40
I know Peter's tough on the communication, so you guys, I, I'm s- as I'm saying this [laughs] I can, I can feel the tension in the air 'cause it's not 100% that he'll show up, but he'll show up, I promise.
2:50
[laughs] Uh, Peter Keating, uh, from The Athletic. Peter Keating, I have known since the days of the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. So it's a conference at MIT that a lot of us went to 15, 16, 17 years ago.
3:03
I'm, I'm losing track of what dates it was, but it was more than a decade ago. All the... Like, a lot of regulars that you know from this show and beyond, those are...
3:09
Uh, I met all these guys there, Spanky, Rufus, Jason Weingarten, uh, Michael Craig from Right Angle Sports, not to mention, like, the, the Mike, Mark Cubans and the Mike Carrys and the Haralambabs of the world.
3:21
They were all there. But Peter Keating was one of these guys at Sloan. Mm-hmm. He wrote at the time for ESPN, the magazine.
3:27
Uh, he was, like, a senior writer at espn.com, and we've, we've talked once a year since, in all these years. He does this...
3:34
He used to do this thing at ESPN called Giant Killers, where he would analyze the bracket, and he would, with the characteristics of the m- of the giant killers that have been the most successful in authoring upsets throughout the years in March Madness, he has his formula that ha- that produces the most likely first round upset specialists, and he has done the same for this year's done.
3:56
Now, for the last five, six years, he's been doing it over at The Athletic. It's called Bracket Breaker. So we will have him on.
4:02
I will go through, by the way, I will go through here momentarily his, of the, of the games here in the first round. I'll go through 10 through six, 10th most likely upset.
4:12
And by the way, the stipulation is, has to be a difference of five seeds. So we're not talking about 10 sevens- Mm-hmm... and eight nines. Yeah. But it's gotta be s- it's gotta be
4:23
six elevens, five twelves, so on and so forth. Gotta be the bigger ones in terms of seedings. Um, forget the betting market.
4:30
But we'll, I'll go through 10 through six, and he'll give, when he comes on air, he'll give his five through one, and I think it will be pretty, pretty fascinating, folks. So we'll look forward to that.
4:37
Real quick before we dive further into college basketball, we gotta get some, some stuff out of the way. Uh, no matches were played in Miami yesterday at the Miami Open. Serves them right. It's fitting.
4:47
Tournament's not in Key Biscayne. It's in the Hard Rock parking lot. [laughs] Um, but I... So none of those matches, none of the four got played yesterday that I gave out on air. I'll re- refresh our memory on that.
4:56
But right now they're starting play at 10:00 AM Eastern 'cause they're trying to get a billion matches in today. So I have two more picks, and, uh, one of these, I think the Basil- Basilashvili starts right now.
5:06
So I just wanna get, these are two additional picks, uh, from subscribers from last night. Uh, Nikoloz Basilashvili, perhaps most famous for being an Indian Wells finalist after the pandemic. Who knows how that happened?
5:17
Uh, lost to Scam Nori at the time. I got him today against Mariano Navone. Uh, that's the first play. I think that starts right about now.
5:23
And then Yannik Hanfmann, the German, the veteran German, plus 135 versus the, uh, the Spanish sensation, Rafa Jodar. That's, those are the two plays that I added.
5:33
Yeah, Hanfmann is plus, uh, Hanfmann, I g- I believe is how you pronounce it. Hanfmann. Hanfmann. Plus 135, uh, in that one. So Basilashvili, Hanfmann, uh, are the two additions.
5:43
Yesterday, the four plays, which we have CLV on, I'm not sure where the prices are right now, but on the men's side it's Opelka and Mannarino.
5:51
These are the prices that I gave out to surv- to, uh, subscribers, yeah, uh, two nights ago, and we already talked about how we're ahead on the CLV on all four of those, so Don't even have to watch him.
6:01
That means it's 4 and 0, right, Kelly? That's right. Uh, and then on the ladies' side, Fruvertova at plus 110, and then, uh, Elvina Kaliyeva at plus 144. So
6:11
all together, four on the men's side, two on the ladies' side today in Miami, and they start right now, so just wanted to get that out.
6:17
The other thing, uh, that we've sort of been tracking is our, you know, the NBA MVP market every day, because we were at one point, right, when it looked like Shai might have a, a, a recurring ab injury that might keep him out
6:31
over and over. Didn't turn out to be the case, but we kept track of how many games these guys, who are candidates to be MVP, have to play to be qualified.
6:39
And really, that sort of exercise became kind of a boondoggle because Shai wasn't missing any games. None of these guys were missing any games. Mm.
6:45
By the way, parenthetical aside I, I mentioned, which tells me load management is bullcrap, right? 'Cause when these guys wanna play, they can. Oh, an award, there's an award carrot out there?
6:55
I'll never miss another game. Um, Shai's already, like, he's, Shai's minus 1,000 now, so it's not really even a thing, but it did become newsworthy. You'll see the current odds here.
7:03
Shai is, like, a prohibitive favorite at this point. Wembanyama and Jokic, 20 to 1 odds are the, uh, the, the best odds you can get them at over there at FanDuel. These are just a DraftKings and FanDuel scouring here.
7:15
You might be able to find a little better somewhere else. But you see, uh, Cade Cunningham, Dončić, and Brown.
7:19
Well, Cade Cunningham, who is four games shy of meeting the 65-game required minimum, who, let's face it, he wasn't gonna win MVP any, anyway, but just because we had been tracking that, it was sort of an interesting thing that happened.
7:33
So we thought Cade Cunningham the other night had to leave the game because of back spasms. At least that's what we were told, and for all we knew, that's what they thought it was. Mm-hmm.
7:41
Oh, it's back spasm, whatever it was. Uh, just in this morning, Cade Cunningham, the Pistons star, has been diagnosed with a collapsed lung and is expected to miss...
7:50
[clears throat] I might've just had a collapsed lung when I said that. Collapsed lung, and is expected to miss an extended period of time, sources tell ESPN. So MVP award aside, which he probably wasn't gonna win anyway,
8:01
he's going to miss, when they say ex- you know, they, they don't know the time. Extended period, vague, right? We have previous sort of, uh, uh... CJ McCollum had a collapsed lung at one point, maybe even at two points.
8:15
Uh, he missed six weeks once and four weeks another time. So what this sort of tells me, with a month left in the season,
8:23
and the Pistons have, again, like, 13 games left I believe it is, as we just sh- showed on that graphic.
8:29
13 games left of the regular season, you would assume, one would assume, you know what they say about assuming, but one would assume that the Pistons would just sort of park him for the rest of the regular season. Yeah.
8:40
Now, I know seeding is a thing still with the Pistons in the, uh, in the Eastern Conference as it would be with any team, but I don't think, w- I've said this many times on other subjects, I think we tend to emphasize seeding oftentimes as bettors or as people anticipating bets
8:58
more than these teams often care about. I, I also think that with this exact situation, Gil- There's no chance... it, it's not even a conversat- Not even a conversation...
9:05
if Cade Cunningham is not healthy for the playoffs, you are going nowhere. In fact, I think the first round of the playoffs is, is a nice buffer for the Pistons, right?
9:15
Because even if he'd have to miss more games, I think the Pistons wouldn't feel horrifically uncomfortable if he had to miss some games in the first round.
9:26
But the, the, if you're looking for a silver lining, if you have Pistons, let's say, Eastern Conference tickets, the silver lining of this situation is if you're gonna have a collapsed lung,
9:38
this wasn't the worst timing it could've possibly been, because they will expect him back. It, it appears, how these injuries go, you could conservatively expect him back for the business end of the playoffs.
9:50
T- to- But who knows? Yeah. But at least they have that to have hope in. Right. W- no, you're right.
9:56
Uh, I mean, the, the bottom end of this, uh, Eastern Conference playoffs all of a sudden, though, these, all these Southeastern division teams, Gil- Oh, what a-... watch out. They're all hot right now... what a division.
10:05
The, the other part of this report that, like, collapsed lung, it's already tough for, for us that are not doctors, right? That's right. Now, how much of this is gonna keep you out for?
10:12
Other part of the report, uh, sources told, uh, Shro- uh, Tronnio that the collapse of Cunningham's lung, lung is considered mild. W- what does that mean, Gil? Yeah. Like, I don't know what that means. Yeah.
10:24
A mild collapsed lung. It'd be like, I guess- Mildly collapsed... I guess it's better than severe, but I don't really know the difference in time. But that's what I mean by there is a silver lining to it, right?
10:33
Where it's like, okay, extended, you're still making the playoffs. Might not get the number one seed, right? Yeah. But you're gonna still have a home playoff series in the first round.
10:45
You would hope to get him back for that, if not halfway through that, if not right after that. Pistons right now seven to one to win the East.
10:53
The fourth shot, Celtics are plus 160, Cavs are plus 330, Knicks are plus 370, and then now it's the Pistons at seven to one.
11:01
So that was the big NBA news, and he won't, like, that MVP graphic is just sort of the aside, right? That we had been tracking, b- figuring he would coast into it.
11:10
He will, by virtue of, you know, minimum games, he wouldn't qualify anyway. He wasn't gonna win it anyway. Um, but he will probably top out at 61 games played this year because of this.
11:21
Um, but really this is Shai's to lose. You know, Shai's, Shai can still f- afford to miss five games, so he's gonna win that.
11:27
Um, but Cade Cunningham, hope for a speedy recovery there, and for all Pistons fans, the organization, anybody who has bets on him, that kind of thing. Um, and then there's your, uh, your Rookie of the Year.
11:37
You feeling good about Con? Yeah? I'm feeling good about Con. Uh, man, did I watch a lot of that game with the Mavericks, though, last night. Cooper Flagg looked very, very h- hey, guess what? Breaking news.
11:47
Cooper Flagg's still a really good basketball player. Good at basketball. Yeah. I, I will tell you, the, uh, I'm feeling good about Con. I, I feel even better.
11:54
Usually don't, I usually don't get influenced by kinda, like, the market either movement or lack of movement, but the fact that there really, this really hasn't budged since Flagg has come back actually does make me feel a little bit better, that there's not, uh, you know, hasn't been a huge amount of money coming in- I hear you...
12:08
uh, on Cooper. See, I, II think Kahn gets, uh, gets this home, man. We've gone over a b- hit a bunch. The stats are similar though.
12:14
I think the really, it- besides the Hornets' success and him being a part of that, 'cause we've always talked about winning doesn't matter when it comes to Rookie of the Year, but the, the three-point shooting excellence that he is putting up this year, and you can compare it to anybody in the league, I think is really the story that's gonna drive home, uh, Kahn.
12:34
Okay, wanted to get the tennis picks out of the way 'cause they start early. Wanted to get the Cade news out.
12:39
After the break, all the college basketball plays I've made ATS, Kelly as well, and I have made my survivor plays for all three entries. Me too, buddy. Let's go. Next on A Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network.
12:52
Let me get your attention real quick, podcast listeners. It's March, which means the madness is officially upon us, of course, and the folks at VSiN have really gone crazy with this one.
13:00
I'm being told right now, in my earpiece, being told that for just $29.99, you get unlimited access to VSiN Pro through May 1st.
13:08
I'm talking picks throughout the tournament, public betting data for every single game, plus sharp tools, projections, articles, and more. Never sleep on and more.
13:17
But here's the thing, there's already a ton up on the site for championship week, which means every day you wait is an opportunity missed. Just click the link in the description to get started. It's March, baby.
13:26
All right, now back to the show. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
13:41
Give yourself the edge this tournament season with VSiN's Hoops Mania special, and get VSiN Pro access through May 1st for just $29.99.
13:48
With VSiN Pro, you'll get daily best bets from VSiN-hosted guests, real-time betting splits from DraftKings and Circa, AI-powered prop tools and matchup analysis, plus 24/7 video and full show replays on the VSiN Watch app.
13:59
And you also get our March Mania betting guide packed with team profiles for every tournament team, key trends for each round, and best bets from VSiN's top analysts. Sign up now at vsin.com/subscribe.
14:08
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. We got tweets. Feed me the book. Always appreciated from everybody.
14:14
This is from, uh, Mortal Capper, "The Miami Open is trying to replicate March Madness today with 2 million matches in one day." Such a boondoggle down there.
14:24
Zach has some insight on this, which is even w- even worse than we think. A lot of excitement in a parking lot somewhere in Miami Gardens. Oh, God. Next to the highway.
14:33
[laughs] I don't wanna, I don't wanna bore people with this subject again- [laughs]... but you have no idea how, how upset this makes me.
14:39
Uh, Montreal Max, "Bonus coverage now for Gil with Miami Open starting at 7:00 AM Pacific," right? "With AAG after, uh, losing all of it," oh, or yeah, "losing out on all of Wednesday's matches.
14:49
Nothing was played yesterday. Let's cash before tip-off." Nothing was played yesterday. Rick OliA, "Happy March Madness Day, guys. I haven't made a bet in a few days and I'm literally shaking with excitement."
15:00
Mike Alvarez, he said, "Hey, speaking of lungs, remember that time Dr. Alexander saved his brother's life via text message? That was pretty cool." Yeah, it was. [laughs] It was pretty cool.
15:09
I love how I don't even g- I don't get credit. We're talking about my second Achilles. I, uh, got a blood clot, then I had a pulmonary embolism.
15:16
I was like 48 hours away from, really from kicking the bucket, and that was the 10 days afterwards where I texted my brother. I was like, "Hey, um, I can't really finish my sentences." [laughs] Is this odd? Is this odd?
15:30
He like- Go to the hospital... lamb basted me. Real Knicks, "We haven't even started the round of 64 and I'm already over it. I had Miami of Ohio first to 20 and both teams over 80. Nice little plus 485 parlay.
15:41
Thanks, SMU. I'm going back to betting split squad Cactus League games." Did he not win that? Is that what, uh, is that not what I said? I, I don't know. I think he's complaining.
15:49
Missed the start of the game, to be honest. Thomas O'Toole, "So just take 11, number 11 Miami and you got them all, Gil. Guess you can just wait and take them next round." Thomas O'Toole,
16:00
there's a strategy to what I'm doing. Uh, first of all, Texas is only what? A one and a half point favorite as an 11 seed. Mm-hmm.
16:06
So that should ha- everybody should take Texas, by the way, if they're being smart about it. That's the first thing on that. And the others, I don't think they're getting past the, uh, the, uh, second round.
16:16
So that's why I picked what I picked. I ain't taking no Miami of Ohio, despite your, your, uh, your wit. Shooter McGamlin, "Gil, would you play a little more conservatively if you're in a smaller pool?" Yes.
16:26
My pool has only 20 people. Abs- "Going Nebraska today and Miami tomorrow, getting nervous, kinda wanna go Bama instead tomorrow." 100%, Shooter McGamlin, that is an absolutely, uh, correct point.
16:36
If I were in a survivor league of just a pool of j- just 20 people, I would be way more conservative, but ours has hundreds upon hundreds. Yeah, hundreds upon hundreds. We're not yet thousands, by the way.
16:50
We're hundreds upon hundreds. Are you sure? No. I'm not sure. I think, I think we're right in that thousand range. We might be, yeah. I think you are right. I think it's high hundreds. Yeah. Ladies and gentlemen...
17:01
Oh, first of all, before we get to Zach here also, uh, Tankapalooza play lost last night. It was a five-legger. Of course, we hit four of them, right? And I left out the one against the Bulls. That would have hit.
17:13
The Nuggets lose as 12 and a half point favorites to the Grizzlies, which brings our Tankapalooza ledger back down to two units, plus 2.04 units. We are six and three on Tankapalooza plays.
17:26
Doesn't matter what, that we're 33 and three on the legs. Doesn't matter. The three's all that matters. Doesn't matter. I, I got cute yesterday, did a little bit of a different one, Gil, but guess what?
17:36
Still included the Denver Nuggets. Well, ladies and gent- 19 turnovers from the Nuggets last night So, so Zach, Zach has a little insight on both the Nuggets and the tennis tournament before we get to all of his plays.
17:44
Zach Cohen joins us now as part of the Zach and Crack Thursday duo, uh, here on A Numbers Game. You can follow Zach @BettingOnX. The man writes about the NBA. He writes about tennis. He writes for guides. He does it all.
17:56
How you doing, Zach? I'm doing well. How are you guys? Doing very well. So first of all, the Nuggets thing was what yesterday? Yeah.
18:04
So Adam Burke, my managing editor, uh, he said, uh, sends me a tweet at like 2:00 PM Eastern, so after I've already put in my play, that the Nuggets got into Memphis at like 4:40 AM.
18:17
Uh, the team beat writer was like, "Oh, I didn't get, you know, into my hotel room and have my head touching my pillow till 6:00 AM."
18:23
So I- I'm sure it was very similar for the Nuggets players, and I'm sure it had something to do with us losing this Tankapalooza play. It just seems like Denver did not get much rest whatsoever.
18:32
Things you'd like to know before you go on air and give a Tankapalooza play, um, and make that bet. And then when it came to the tennis tournament yesterday, so no matches were played in Miami.
18:42
Now most, now most of these tennis tournaments, right, we know at least one court, maybe two, right, they're covered. Miami had nothing ready yesterday. What was that?
18:53
Yeah, I, I don't understand how a, a court, especially in Florida where it rains all the time, does not have any covered courts whatsoever. But yeah, these tournaments where it- it's just you...
19:03
If it rains, you're doomed. I, I don't know how they do it. They should at least have like two weeks parsed out so that, you know, they can kind of move things around a little bit.
19:11
But yeah, it's just a nightmare of a tournament already off the bat. Nightmare. Try to get a million matches in today. All right.
19:16
Let's, let's get the tennis and the NBA out of the way, 'cause Zack is, uh, doing some college hoops as well. Let's start with tennis.
19:22
Uh, you have a couple matches that you played today, one on the ladies' side, one on the men's side. Yeah. I have, uh, Ashlyn Krueger to beat Diana Shnaider. Uh, that is one that I took at -125.
19:34
I think one of the big themes that you'll hear from me throughout the next couple weeks is that this is a very server-friendly tournament.
19:40
It plays much faster than Indian Wells, even though Indian Wells did play faster this year. It is a tournament that has historically been owned by power players, and Krueger is a very good server.
19:49
She has a lot of punch from the baseline, and just a player that has historically done pretty well when playing, you know, on American hard courts. So thought that was a really good price for her.
19:58
Shnaider's a player that, you know, pokes a lot of balls back, doesn't have as much power, doesn't have as much weapons overall. And then Martin Damm money line +106 against Jacob Fearnley. Very similar situation.
20:09
Damm, a, a big lefty with a huge serve, lots of power himself, and also a player that, you know, heading into Indian Wells had been playing pretty good tennis both on the challenger circuit and in like qualifying and main, you know, main events.
20:22
But yeah, I do think this is a good plus money price on Damm to win. Okay. Did you make any future plays in Miami? I have a bunch. I took some really weird ones this tournament.
20:32
But I guess the most normal would be I took Medvedev to win his quarter at +187, also happened to win the tournament at 15 to 1. Saw him tweeting about not having his bags. Yeah.
20:42
So hopefully he has a tennis racket by the time he's on the court.
20:44
But I do think that he just played such good tennis at Indian Wells, and even in the final against Jannik Sinner, it was a match that really could've gone either way. And his hold percentage this year, back up to 87%.
20:57
That's what it was when he was like peak, peak Medvedev back in 2021. So think he's playing some of the best tennis we've seen him play in the last like five, six years, and I do think that his draw is difficult.
21:08
He's got Shelton, he's got Zverev in there, but I do think that he can find a way into the semifinals. And in these conditions I would expect him to give Sinner some trouble in the semifinals again.
21:18
You know my favorite part about that Daniil Medvedev? So for those who missed it- Yeah...
21:21
Medvedev, top five player in the world, uh, he, his bags, he went, he flew c- I guess he flew commercial, which I di- which I was surprised by to begin with.
21:29
He l- United Airlines loses his bags from Palm Springs to, uh, to Miami. He then tweets @united, "Hey, I need my bags." They don't know who he is. You know what made me a little bit happy?
21:42
He got the same generic tweet that any of us have ever gotten when we do that, where they're like, "Oh, I'm so sorry to hear of your troubles." [laughs] "We will do everything we can," right? That sort of thing.
21:53
And people like chiming in, being like, "He's like, like the greatest tennis player in the world. You gotta send his bags." [laughs] So anyway, what, uh, what other futures did you have in there?
22:01
I did take Bublic to win quarter two. I just thought that that was the quarter on the men's side where it was worth taking some shots.
22:07
Highest seeded players in there were Lorenzo Musetti, who backed out, uh, and Alex de Minaur, who I don't think plays his best tennis on faster hard courts.
22:14
So I thought that Bublic with all of h- you know, his weapons, his big serve, you know, his drop shot, all of that stuff I thought would play out pretty nicely there. It was +750 before Musetti pulled out.
22:24
I actually don't know what it moved to after, but that was one of them. And then on the women's side, uh, Mboko to win the tournament 14 to 1. Also have her to win quarter four at +320.
22:34
Similar situation with Medvedev, where I was just, I was very impressed with her in a loss to Sabalenka in Indian Wells. So thought that she had a really good shot of winning quarter four, which is Iga's quarter.
22:44
It is Andreatta. I just think that those players haven't played that well this year, and definitely don't play their very best in quicker surfaces. So thought that that was a shot for her.
22:53
You and Drew both on Mboko to win, and I, I cannot, uh, I cannot say that I don't love it. Um, but I have sat out on the futures on this one. Uh, okay. NBA, you have one side tonight. Yeah.
23:04
I took the Heat money line -134 against the Lakers, and I was telling you guys off the air, but like somehow down this season despite having a r- [laughs] what feels like a really good year, and it's all because like I've been on the opposite end of the Lakers throughout the course of this winning streak and just don't really buy what I've seen from them defensively.
23:21
At the point where I don't really wanna question that anymore I'll, I'll, I'll start to treat them like a better defensive team.
23:26
But I still think that like you have to play spots in this league, and this is their third game in four nights, second road game in a row.
23:33
I, I do think this is a situation that has been, you know, pretty unkind to them this year.
23:37
They're one and two both straight up and against the spread when playing a second road game on a back-to-back, and the Heat have been a good home team when playing good competition this year.
23:45
And even over the last 15 games where the Lakers have been kind of stellar, there isn't much that separates these two when looking at net rating. So I think Miami really should find a way to beat Los Angeles tonight.
23:54
And you took, just to clarify, you took money line, not laid the points, right? Just money line, and it w- I got -134. That was a couple hours ago. I would take that up to -150 if you have to. Okay.
24:04
I believe our buddy- My Miami as well, Zach... you're laying the points? I, I did Moneyline last night- Oh... as well, actually. Minus 135. I, I would lay three, though. I'd lay three. I know, I know of a, uh,
24:17
very sharp NBA bettor who laid the three. It's an awful, awful rest spot. Yeah. Denver Nuggets. Ah. Shoulda known that information. Yeah. More with Zach.
24:27
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Flights, hotels, wherever you wanna go, Prophet Ex covers it. It's wherever you wanna go, Kelly. Anywhere on earth. What's your, what's your choice? Oh, man. Where are we going today? I dunno.
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We're gonna go to Toronto, Canada. That's all? It'll cover that easy. Yeah. And every 10- Pretty easy... additional wins earns you another shot. I love Toronto, but you could've gone, like, way more.
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25:28
A tradition unlike any other here, uh, on a numbers game. Uh, as I said earlier on the show, met this gentleman, what is it, 15 years ago now? Uh, at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference at MIT.
25:40
Uh, just nirvana for analytics nerds. At the time, uh, he was doing a, a talk. I think it was even during lunch. We were having lunch, and he was doing a talk, and it was these w- s- really interesting sports stats.
25:52
I immediately, uh, I was like, "Ah, this is my kinda guy right here." At the time, he was working at ESPN the magazine. He was doing something called Giant Killers.
25:59
For years now, he's been plying his trade over at The Athletic. Uh, I think Giant Killers, they, they lost in the divorce, so now it's Bracket Breaker.
26:06
It is my dear friend Peter Keating, everybody, here courtesy of the progressive guest line. Peter, how are you doing, man? Oh, it's great to see you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you so much for, uh, having me back.
26:17
And, uh, yeah, there, we, we did what we could to avoid litigation over the name, so we, we, we... It was an actually not an actual settlement.
26:25
We've just rebranded as, as Bracket Breakers, and that's good because the model keeps improving every year, so that's, that's okay. Oh, it is okay. Absolutely. So now in the interest of time, I'm gonna go through...
26:36
Well, well, listen, before we even do that, give us the... So this is, I was, I was explaining to everybody, this is six and 11 and wider. We're not doing eight, nines, or seven, tens here.
26:44
That's the first sort of stipulation. Um, but give the characteristics, before we get to the countdown here, give the characteristics of what makes a great Bracket Breaker candidate. Look, it's, it's very simple.
26:58
We find, and this, this comports with common sense, successful underdogs play high-variance styles. In basketball, that means they press on defense. They crash the boards for extra possessions.
27:08
They shoot a lot of threes. You're interested in increasing the volume and the value of your possessions.
27:14
On the other hand, you know, it takes two to tango, and to stay safe, big team, big favorite, has to just play on cruise control. They have to dominate the offensive boards. They have to avoid turnovers.
27:26
They just want it to be another day at the office.
27:28
So the more chaos an underdog can create and the more possessions it can gather so it doesn't have to depend on outshooting a better team, the better chance it has to win. Okay.
27:38
So now in the interest of time, what I was saying earlier, Peter, is I'm, I'm just gonna rattle off 10 through six so that you can elaborate more on five through one. So- Sure... if you would allow me.
27:47
So, so number 10, the 10th-most likely upset, talking six, 11 games or wider, meaning five, 12, four, 13. You get the idea. Uh, Alabama Crimson tied to get knocked off by Hofstra, a 15.1% chance.
28:02
That's the 10th most likely. Um, the number nine most likely, the Tennessee volunteers to beat Miami Ohio. Would've been different had SMU won. Uh, Miami Ohio checks in at number nine, 17.4%.
28:15
Eighth most likely, the 12th seeded Akron Zips to beat the Texas Tech Red Raiders. That's an 18.9% chance. Seventh most likely, Troy, 13 seed to beat Nebraska. 20.9% chance.
28:30
And sixth most likely, Northern Iowa Panthers at a 24.5% chance to knock off number five seeded St. John's. Okay. Top five most likely to happen.
28:44
Now by the way, Texas winning and Miami of Ohio winning in the play-in games affected these numbers. Number five, Peter, what do you have? Okay.
28:53
So we got, uh, Louisville against South Florida, and we, we got a 28% chance of that happening.
29:01
Now look, Gil, some of these numbers are numbers, some of these ratings and estimated chances are an arrow pointing up, and some of them are an arrow pointing down, right?
29:08
I mean, Troy is a really interesting long shot at 20%. South Florida's an interesting long shot, but, uh, because, um, unusually for an underdog, they do dominate the offensive boards.
29:19
Um, their improvement in offensive rebounding is outstanding. They build possessions, and you can see it in their stats. It directly translates to point differential.
29:26
They're an interesting underdog, but Louisville's a great team. They're underseeded at six. Um, they take smart chances. They're offensively and defensively efficient. We can't go higher than 28%.
29:38
As much as I like USF, um, Louisville, Louisville deserves some more respect than they're getting.
29:43
And let's, and let's clarify again, this is not just, uh, ATS, 'cause I know a lot of people are locked into against the spread. We're talking about outright upsets. We're talking about bracket breakers here.
29:53
So South Florida, 28% chance. Fifth most likely outright upset of any 6-11 game or wider. Fourth most likely, Peter? Okay, is number 12 seed High Point against number five seed Wisconsin.
30:10
Uh, look, Wisconsin takes a lot of threes and still plays at a very slow pace, um, even though they have this new Euro style they've, they've q- kind of brought in the last couple of years.
30:20
The statistical combination is very dangerous for a giant. If they fall behind, it can be hard to catch up. If they have an off-shooting night, they can be caught.
30:29
And High Point is kind of getting a little trendy now because they do everything that you want an underdog to do.
30:35
This is a game where you have to watch the money line to see if it's already gotten ahead of our estimated chances. We give them about a one in three chance of pulling off this upset.
30:44
We think Wisconsin is a very vul- very vulnerable giant according to historical similarities. Um, but the High Point betting market may be getting a little rich.
30:52
You gotta keep an eye on what the actual line is right now. Now, I have a, I have a, uh, bracket breaker mathematical point of clarification. Did High Point end up in the four spot or the three spot?
31:01
Where did Texas and BYU end up? Uh, I believe Texas and BYU is... Oh, you know what? You may have a point because we now... Well, no. We have Texas playing BYU, but that dropped on the list. Is that correct?
31:16
So I had, yeah, I had Texas, BYU as the fourth most likely, then High Point the third most likely, just by a tick. Okay. So Texas, Texas, you know what? It's right around 35%- Yeah... each.
31:25
Though with Texas in there, Texas is a little bit higher. Look, here's the deal. Here's what you need to know about BYU. BYU's a good, not great team at almost everything.
31:34
They have the highest scoring, uh, player in the country, which is great. They're an efficient team.
31:39
But look, anybody can have an off-shooting night, and you need to do things to insulate yourselves from that if you're a s- if you wanna be a safe, what we call an overdog.
31:49
BYU is not great at hoarding possessions, getting offensive rebounds, or defensive rebounds, or generating turnovers. If they have a bad shooting night, they can be taken down, and that's what you have to watch.
31:59
Texas, meanwhile, Texas lost a bunch of close games. That hurts them in the seeding, but it shouldn't. Texas is one of the unluckiest teams in the country this year. They're better statistically.
32:09
Their fundamentals are better than their 18-14 record. So this matchup is just closer. It's just close. It's a close 6-11. These teams are closer than they look.
32:18
What I love about this is I did not know about this list that I put in my survivor plays. South Florida, which Peter has fifth, Texas, which Peter has either fourth or third here. Let's say a tie for third.
32:28
I have those as two of my three survivor plays today, so I, I like this. I like where this is going. Oh. Hopefully my last one is in here. Uh, who do you have as then the second-most likely upset?
32:38
At just about a 40% chance we give to VCU to upset North Carolina. Look, North Carolina has injury problems, and VCU is e- epitomizes everything we're talking about what under- smart underdogs need to do to succeed.
32:53
They do force turnovers. They do grab rebounds. They do shoot a lot of threes.
32:57
Um, it's, it's like if you took a pretty good underdog and you turn all the knobs up on the intelligent gambles a team has to take to beat a nominally superior team. That's what they do. That's what they've always done.
33:08
Somehow they keep doing it through different generations of coaches, which is very interesting.
33:12
I think that the management liked what Shaka Smart did a long time ago, and has brought in people who could continue what the, the kind of philosophy that he had going, even if he's, they're not actually from his coaching tree.
33:23
And, uh, look, UNC is not at full strength. So VCU's actually a sneaky pick to, to, to make it to the Sw- Sweet 16 as far as our model sees. That's my third survivor. I like it. Okay. All right. But so I like it.
33:35
So now this really is, is interesting because I would never be able to predict what number one is based on what I already picked. What is, by your numbers, the number one most likely upset? Well, I...
33:47
Look, a lot of people love Vanderbilt this year. They're a strong team. But, uh, they're facing McNeese. The Cowboys are, um, a terrific long shot bet. They're also a sneaky pick.
33:58
If you can, uh, you know, as mom always said, "If a 12 can beat a 5, a 12 can beat a 4." I mean, they're also a [laughs] sneaky pick to make the Sweet 16 because McNeese does...
34:07
First of all, McNeese came through for us last year. They were one of our favorite underdogs, and they brought the, they, you know, they brought the band back.
34:13
And, um, they, uh, uh, they generate bucket loads of turnovers. Um, their offensive rebounding rate is really strong for a mid-major.
34:22
And Vanderbilt looks safe, but McNeese has so many good, sharp-shooting, giant-killing characteristics that, uh, they, they made the top of our list. Wow.
34:31
McNeese State, the most likely upset per the numbers, uh, from Peter Keating in the first round of the tournament. Yeah, it cannot be the usual suspects, right, Gil? That's right.
34:40
I had to bring something to surprise you. [laughs] It was very surprising. Now, this is, so this is, uh, b- Peter does all his stuff at The Athletic.
34:45
This was, this article was also in The New York Times, correct, as well, this one? The New York Times is now working, uh, you know, with The Athletic. Yep. And so this is on the Times.
34:54
The Times, the Times this year calls this The Definitive Guide to March Madness Upset Picks, so. That's right. And what- Check it out... and by the way, w- as we, as we leave, what, what are you working on next?
35:03
I'm just curious. Once this is done, what happens? Uh, well [laughs] after this I'm gonna go take a shower and shave and- Okay... figure out what's going on. Y- you know what? I'll mention one thing. Nebr- and, uh, on...
35:14
I don't know if you see any betting action at all on the women's side, but Nebraska smoked Richmond in the women's play-in game last night. Okay.
35:21
And Nebraska is an 11 who could definitely upset the sixth that they're facing. Watch Nebraska on the women's side. Beautiful.
35:28
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A numbers game brought to you by Prophet Ex, and they're making March Madness about more than just your bracket. It's King of March, and there are free trips worth up to $10,000 on the line.
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Sign up with promo code VSiNMM as in March Madness, and compete to become the King of March only on Prophet Ex. Gil Alexander here at, uh, Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
36:22
Kelly is behind the glass because It is one of these rare moments where we get one of our regular guests here in studio. Uh, we did have him, I wanna say, back at the South Point back in the day.
36:32
Uh, he's the only member, by the way, of Three Man Weave crew that has been kind enough to join us in studio. I don't think Matt Cox or Kai McKeon ever did join us in studio, but Jim Root is here again, live from Circa.
36:43
James Patrick Root. It's great to be here. Great to have you, man. Yeah. Is this not, by the way, second chance points for, uh, for Jim on Twitter to the number two?
36:51
Second chance points, 3MW_CBB for all of Three Man Weave stuff. We were just talking a little bit about this off-air, and I think we're in agreement.
36:59
This is the single greatest da- out of 365 days, do we get any more excited than we do today? I certainly don't. Being a college basketball junkie, this is, this is my sport year-round. Yeah.
37:13
So this is kind of the Super Bowl of it. Everybody's excited for these games.
37:18
You know, we're pointing out at, at the book here at Circa, just the amount of people that are just ready to watch at 9:00 in the morning here. Look at, look at that. Got drinks flowing at 8:45 local time.
37:26
[laughs] It's, th- there's no better feeling than that excitement. What's wrong with that? Yeah. Um, no, I, I do, 'cause I'm thinking, what are the candidates?
37:33
NFL Draft, I get super excited about that, but it's not games, right? It's, it's humans. Yep. It's hope. Um, first day of the NFL season is awesome. That's up there, for sure.
37:44
Super Bowl, uh, by that time I'm sort of like, "Well, my team's not in it," you know? Yeah. [laughs] It's one game. I think this is the answer.
37:49
I, and I think the, I think the too cool for school crowd says conference week, but I think this is the day still. I think conference tournaments are awesome for the, the true, like, basketball junkies. More hearty.
37:57
There's more games. Yeah. Uh, a lot of people that come out here to Vegas, there's more, more stuff to bet on. But everyone's so locked in on these games. Casual fans are into this 'cause
38:06
around Vegas you're not gonna have people quite as into those conference tournaments- Mm-hmm... that are here just casually. But this is the marquee event. This is the day, Thursday.
38:14
Even better than Friday because- Yeah... we have, everything's in front of us right now. Real quick, just a administrative note. Jim went to Missouri, but he's wearing a Wisconsin shirt.
38:21
Uh, why are you wearing a Wisconsin shirt? I am here with a group of, of friends, and my best friend went to Wisconsin, and Wisconsin plays today, so I'm supporting him. Yeah. Oh, gotcha.
38:29
And then he's gonna be in Mizzou gear tomorrow for, to support the alma mater. But, but admit it, you don't think Missouri's beating Miami. I sadly do not. Yeah. Unfortunately.
38:36
I think every Missouri person I know feels this way. It, I know it's- Yeah... in St. Louis. I don't know that that helps us all that much. [laughs] Yeah.
38:42
Um, yeah, it's a tricky, it, but I'll d- dig into the handicap real quick for that one. Um, because one of Mizzou's assistants is now on the staff at Miami, and Miami's head coach coached Mizzou's best player at Duke.
38:54
So there's a lot of- Oh... familiarity going on- Yeah... with that game, and I, I think that hurts Missouri personally. Okay. And yeah, I'm, I'm riding with Miami.
39:01
But I get every Mizzou game wrong, so hopefully- Oh, good. Okay... I'll be pleasantly surprised with the- Now you have a shot... emotional hedge of betting Miami, yes. Uh, okay, so hold some of your ATS picks.
39:09
Let's get to your bracket, 'cause a lot of people will be curious. Let's start with the Elite Eight. Who did you end up with? Looking at it right now, just to refresh my own memory. Yeah. Uh- Half an hour to spare, Jim.
39:18
Yes, exactly. I got Duke and Michigan State, Arizona, Gonzaga, Michigan, Iowa State, Florida, Houston. Very chalky. Chalky. All four ones, two twos, two threes. You did all four ones too. Yep. I'm, I'm with you.
39:31
Uh, well, not to the Final Four. Oh. I do have one two seed in the Final Four. Oh. Oh, okay. Uh, Houston I have sneaking into the Final Four. Oh. Beating Florida. It is, you know- Okay...
39:39
quasi home game down there in Houston. Okay. Uh, I will also disclose that I am in a pool where there are a lot of people from Arizona. Oh. So I am- Smart...
39:47
intentionally not betting, or not picking the Wildcats to win at all. Uh, I'm going with Michigan over Houston in the final there.
39:53
I think Mich- Michigan's a little under-selected because they played poorly on Selection Sunday. People are kind of seeing that.
39:59
In the Big Ten tournament they play a couple close games, but they're still on par with Arizona, still on par with Duke. Interesting.
40:04
Had you not been in a pool with a lot of Arizona residents, would you have taken Arizona to win it all? I think Arizona's the best team. I love how high the floor is, 'cause they don't need to make threes to win.
40:14
They've got a nice eight-man rotation. They kind of know all their roles. Great back court. They can make plays b- late in games.
40:19
So I, I think Arizona is the best team, but I'm riding with Michigan for the, uh, the differentiator in the pool. I like it. Brief aside, Dr. Bob, who may or may not be on with us tomorrow, uh, Dr.
40:29
Bob does his, his yearly analysis of brackets, and if you were looking for the best value team to win it all, meaning a team that actually has a, a legit chance to win it all, but is under-represented by percentage
40:43
nationally speaking in terms of pool percentages, uh, tracked by Yahoo, ESPN, that kind of thing, based on his handicap, the answer is Houston to win it all. Houston. Okay.
40:53
Houston would be the optimal pick to win it all in your bracket. And again, you still have 25 minutes to fill out your brackets, I think. Yeah. So- Make some changes right now- Yeah, make some changes...
40:59
could be soon there. Those spiral... Okay, so those, that's your, your Elite Eight, your Final Four, your two and your one. Um, your favorite plays today against the number? I like Wisconsin.
41:09
I know I'm wearing the shirt, and that maybe comes across as biased, but, uh, High Point has not played a top 100 team all year. It didn't last year either.
41:17
Didn't play a Power Conference team, then they go up against Purdue in the tournament, and they hung around a little, but I, I wanna say that was, like, a six or seven-point spread. They ended up losing by 12.
41:26
They've got some athletes, but they play too fast for me. Wisconsin's comfortable in an up-tempo game now. They're not the old Badgers of, of yore, where they wanna slow it down and grind it.
41:34
Uh, so you get more possessions. I like Wisconsin's guards there. So I did a lay 10 in that one. Big fan there. Um- Is, is Wisconsin also a team
41:43
based on their three-point shooting that could author, uh, uh, an upset down the road here, and get further than most people think they would? Very much so. Yeah.
41:52
I mean, they, they were great on the road in Big Ten play. They won at Purdue, at Illinois, at Michigan, like, knocking off top teams on the road away from home.
41:59
That's, I think, what you look for as a team, kind of go be a giant killer in the Sweet 16. They, the three-point variance they could have against Arizona, where Arizona doesn't shoot threes, Wisconsin knocks down 15.
42:10
I guess as I say that, though, I'm like, "Oh, the problem is they play Arkansas probably next round." So there's that. That's gonna be- Yeah... I, I'm hoping we get that game because it will be a shootout- Yeah...
42:18
and both, both teams- Oh... got two guards that can just score like crazy. So good. Yep. All right. Beyond Wisconsin, what do you have? Uh, let's see. What else today? Troy. I love Troy. Second tip of the day.
42:27
Um, they've, their three-point numbers are skewed because their best player for some reason shoots threes and he's 21%. I think he will avoid doing that.
42:36
Like coach, coach, coach is like, "Hey, you know how, you know what your percentage is on these?" Yeah. Can he check the data a little bit? Yeah, yeah. I don't understand why he's got the green light. Yeah.
42:44
Uh, but they've got two brothers, Koby and Cooper Campbell, that can both shoot, or they're like 37% from deep. Nebraska's entire defense is playing very condensed and, and letting you go over the top.
42:53
Their opponents take a ton of threes, and I think that works for Troy. I think we get some cult heroes, some folk heroes early- Wow... on the Thursday window there.
43:00
I don't know if Troy's gonna win outright, but plus 13 is, is, uh, a great one for me.
43:04
I'm also on first to 15 points there, 'cause I think there's a lot of variance early in that game because of the three-point shooting. I think that's around plus 230 or so.
43:12
Uh, so yeah, I, I think Troy is live and plus 13's playing for me. You think these Nebraska kids feel any pressure about the whole last power conference team to win a game in a tournament?
43:22
You think they, you think that's even in their minds? I think it is a little bit. Yeah. I'm sure Fred Hoiberg's trying to, you know, distract them, not let them be in on that. Right.
43:29
But it's impossible not to hear it, right, as you're leading up to the tournament. We're the only school that's never won this. Yeah. Good luck, fellas. Get out there. Yeah.
43:35
And, and they're heavily favored, so if they start slow, you could see them getting real tight.
43:39
It's a little like when Virginia was a one seed and they started slow, and people would talk about the style not working in March. Oh. And then you see them get tense.
43:46
Remember that first game, they were down at the half, weren't they, Virginia? The year that they won it all. The Gardner-Webb game in the first round. The Gardner-Webb game. Yeah. [laughs] They were down double digits.
43:53
It was like, "Here we go again. Are they really gonna do this?" 'Cause they, right, 'cause they had lost to 16 seed the year before UMBC. Exactly. That's right.
43:58
Oh, that's right, and then they went on the team of destiny that year. Yep. Uh, anything else today or tomorrow even? Uh, VCU. Love, love VCU today. Um, plus two, plus two and a half.
44:07
Does, does it bother you that everybody loves VCU? I try not to let that get in my head too much and just, you know- Yeah... handicap in my own way. Yeah.
44:13
I think, I think, uh, VCU's own Greg Peterson loves to talk about that. Yeah. Like, just do your own handicap. Uh, but UNC without Caleb Wilson I think is a different team.
44:21
If you go back to February 1st, VCU's the better team per Bart Torvik, just filtering it based on that. And they've won 16 to 17. They can play up. They've got some Power Five transfer talent on that roster.
44:34
I just, I think they've got a little bit of a, a momentum edge there and getting... I, I think they're the better team and getting two points, two and a half, so I'll take that.
44:40
What's the common upset you're hearing from folks that you just don't buy? I don't really buy Akron over Texas Tech.
44:47
Uh, I think they're, that's another, like, small guard underdog that plays fast, and that kind of feeds into what Texas Tech wants to do now without Toppin. Meaning you don't even like Akron plus the points. I don't.
44:57
I'm gonna bet Texas Tech. Wow. Okay. I haven't put that one in. That's tomorrow, one of the earlier tips. Yeah. But I, I think Texas Tech is still good without Toppin. Right.
45:04
I just don't, they don't have the national title ceiling that I thought. They were my preseason pick, so it hurt me very deeply when Toppin went down. What, yeah, yeah, what's your...
45:11
'Cause you're known for taking these great numbers off-season. What's the, what's your team that would make you the most money here? That's a really... I'm, I'm pulling that up right now. Um,
45:23
Houston I've got 20 to 1 preseason. Florida 25 to 1. Oh, nice. As a one seed. Okay. This guy's pretty solid. Uh, Vandy 300 to 1, is a five seed. Oh, 300 to 1? I don't know. That's great. Yeah. One more before you go.
45:34
Anything else? Uh, yes. Sorry. Let me, let me skip back to tomorrow. Um, oh, I think Purdue blows out Queens. Queens has played five power conference teams this year. They've given up an average of 102 points a game.
45:47
Purdue's one of the best offenses, arguably the best in the entire country. You could just narrow it down and go Purdue team total, 'cause I, I don't think they'll be stopped. Okay.
45:55
Uh, but I also think they, you know, you, you wanna lay that number, uh, 25 and a half. I'm very comfortable with that. Speaking of Greg, he's got Purdue winning it all. Oh, okay.
46:03
I, I, it's realistic and not popular, so that's a good differentiator- Yeah... as we talked about at the top. Jim Root, everybody. @secondchancepoints, number two to start that. Uh, 3MW_CBB.
46:14
He is going to be meandering about circuit today, so, uh, if you're here, stop by and say hi. Thank you, Jim. Thank you, sir. Yeah, appreciate you having me. Crack next
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