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Mar 21, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | March 21, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | March 21, 2025
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34:38
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Oh, the madness. Good Friday morning to you.
0:11
It is the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander, radio's Gil Alexander.
0:23
And ladies and gentlemen, it's radio's Kelly Bidlin. How you doing? I'm doing great. Uh, how was your first day of the madness? YouTube television's Gil Alexander? Eh, I think it was radio. Oh, okay. All right.
0:31
It sounds, it sounds, it sounds funnier. Uh, first day of madness was, it was cool. It was cool. I went, I only had two bets. I literally only bet two games.
0:38
It was the two we talked about yesterday, Yale, which, uh, America's team lost yesterday it felt like. Yeah. Uh, we went down with that one. And then I had Omaha first to 10. That got home.
0:47
Those first to 10 bets, man- [laughs]... they are too much fun, 'cause that wa- You should have seen me off the couch yelling. I was gonna, I was gonna lay minus 500 that you yelled, "Omaha," like, uh, Peyton Manning.
0:58
Well, no, no I didn't. No, I didn't. Oh. All right. Did you watch the beginning of that game?
1:00
It was like seven, they got out to like a seven to two lead, and they just kept jacking up threes, and it's like clank, clank, clank. I'm like, "Just make one. Make one."
1:09
[laughs] That was your big takeaway from yesterday, was Omaha. Yeah. Try to get to 10. First to 10s, man. Um, by the way, on the show today, it is a Friday. You know what that means on the Numbers Game.
1:17
Falica and Fezzik, hour number two. Chris Falica, all his bets, Steve Fezzik, not only his bets, but all of his betting insights and thoughts. Uh, Dr. Bob will join us before them today, Dr.
1:29
Bob with all of his, uh, college basketball thoughts. I hope he remembers he's an hour earlier. I should probably text him. Should probably do that. Uh, Grace Remington will join us with a vibe report.
1:37
I don't know if she's gonna be at the pool today at Circus Swim, or she's gonna be inside. In the book. In the book. In the book.
1:42
W- we saw her yesterday and we're like, "Let's not let Grace freeze n- uh, two days in a row." [laughs] I think, yeah. All right.
1:46
So she'll be in the book today, yeah, to give us the, uh, the vibe down at, uh, the Circus Sports Book right behind us. And then, uh, before that, a little Jason Weingarten as well.
1:56
Let's just, uh, I just wanna go through these real quick one by one yesterday, just like in five seconds each. You ready for this? Um, so Creighton Louisville tipped off yesterday, and Creighton just ran 'em out.
2:08
Remember with, with the formula- Mm-hmm... w- every week, we have the isolated teams that are, you know, that qualify to win the championship based on our tried and true formula through the years.
2:15
And we did, we did four iterations of it this year. Louisville at one point was on the outside looking in. They just got rolled by Creighton. Uh, Creighton beats 'em by 14. Uh, Purdue beats High Point by 12.
2:27
That torpedoed a lot of people's popular High Point plus the points pick, and it looked like that was in cover position most of that game until Purdue got there at the end. Wisconsin blows out Montana.
2:37
Houston, after somewhat of a slow start, uh, crushes SIU Edwardsville. Uh, Auburn, same thing, slow start, crushes Alabama State.
2:45
And then the, the real first sort of upset, at least in terms of seeding, right, 12 over five, McNeese beats Clemson by two, and if you just saw the final score, that was super-duper cosmetic- Yeah...
2:57
uh, because, you know, Clemson- Had 13 at half, Gil. They had thir- it was 31 to 13 at the half in favor of the Cowboys of McNeese State. I don't know why we never say state anymore with McNeese.
3:10
Uh, but they led 31-13, McNeese did, at the half, then 40 to 16. They led by 24 four minutes into the second half. Um, they led by 17 with four and a half minutes left in the game.
3:23
17, I mean, this thing is k- Katie bar the door, right? And then Clemson made four threes in the last minute to, uh, to just get that game, just swore that game over.
3:32
And, but, uh, but McNeese, even though they win by two, were never really in jeopardy. But that was the first big upset of the day.
3:40
Um, and then BYU, I think, I don't know how much th- of this was a surprise, 'cause a lot of people liked, l- you know, loved VCU, but we knew this was a bad matchup i- in terms of, for both teams, right, that they ended up having to play each other.
3:51
By halftime, BYU had a double-digit lead against VCU, and it was kind of over early in the second half. BYU ends up winning by nine. Uh, the biggest no-show of the day was Georgia.
4:03
Georgia, I don't know if you know this, but the NCAA tournament started yesterday. Uh, Georgia trailed [laughs] 20- That was a comical one, yeah. I wanna get this right, 27 to three and 30 to five. Is that good?
4:16
Uh, not great, Bob. Gonzaga [laughs] Gonzaga ends up winning by 21 in a runout. Tennessee blasts, uh, Wofford. Arkansas Kansas was a pretty good game, so these are the, the night games. Arkansas Kansas, pretty good.
4:28
Uh, Arkan- it was k- kind of back and forth, and then Arkansas had the flurry at the end. The kid from Kansas goes out with the Achilles. Mm. Um, Adams does, and then you're like, "Oh, boy."
4:37
And then Arkansas ends up winning that, which was big for a survivor for me. Um, A- A&M over your Yale Bulldogs, which was never really a, a tight game, even- They teased us at the end, though.
4:46
Yale teased it a little bit, but it wasn't really. It would've been an amazing cover. Like, it would've been a horrible bad beat- Oh, yeah... if they ended up getting home. I had the plus seven and a half- Yeah...
4:55
and I was like, "We still have a shot at this," and it didn't get there. Uh, but they were never in, you know, never chance of them winning. Yeah, but Gil, you brought this up a few weeks ago.
5:02
You know the end of that game? I g- I got upset. When do these college kids stop trying hard?
5:06
I usually get angry about the college kids trying too hard and fouling till the very last second, and they kinda let it go with nine seconds left. Yeah. Well, in the day, I mean, nine seconds is nine seconds.
5:14
I mean, it was, it was right there, yeah. [laughs] Uh, Drake over Mizzou was kinda like Arkansas over Kansas.
5:19
It was, you know, uh, like Arkansas sorta had it, and then they wobbled, and then they s- they sustained it at the end. Same thing with Drake.
5:25
They had it, they wobbled, uh, but they were able to, uh, outlast Mizzou at the end of that game. Um, and then the night finished, UCLA ended up crushing Utah State. St.
5:34
John's, after a slow start, crushes Nebraska Omaha. Um, the, the capper at the end was Texas Tech beats UNC Wilmington, a game UNC Wilmington squad, by 10.
5:43
But Michigan UC San Diego lived up to the hype after Michigan just, you know, f- flurry at the beginning. They went up 10 to nothing before you could blink. Yep.
5:52
And then, you know, w- everybody on Twitter, "I told you this was gonna happen. Uh, you were right to be upset about your UCSD play. Michigan's crushing them. There's no way they were ever gonna lose this game."
6:01
And UC San Diego was awesome in the second half. Um, that was a great display. They tied it up late. And the real sort of whimper at the end, 'cause the last possession sucked. Yeah, what were they doing?
6:15
That was a terrible success- but they were doing that whole thing where they had, you know, they had both Wolf and, and, uh, Golden on, you know, they had bigs on guards, and the guards would do the step back and nail these threes, UCSD, and then at the end it didn't work out on the final possession.
6:28
So Michigan, for some, got the cover. But, you know, we look at these from all different perspectives. Hope your brackets went okay. Our VSiN bracket challenge, I went five and five. What did you do?
6:38
I was very middling on the bracket challenge. I have absolutely no idea. [laughs] Okay, yeah. Um, so I got 10, I got t- I'll check after today... I got 10 more plays today. Do we have that graphic, by the way? Yeah.
6:47
The 10 more plays. Um, so this is a, again, VSiN's bracket challenge. I hope everybody was able to get in.
6:52
I know we promoted it a whole bunch on the run-up to the deadline yesterday, and we might have crashed that site yesterday with all the, uh, people trying to get in there.
6:59
But we ended up with like, was it the last hour, we had tons of, of signups for this. So yeah, five and five for me yesterday, um, uh- You didn't purposely split it up 10 and 10, did you?
7:09
I did not purposely split it up 10 and 10. Okay, okay. I was gonna say- I'm missing a check mark, by the way. I'm, I'm lacking a check mark there. Where did you guys shortchange me?
7:15
You shortchanged me a check mark somewhere on there. Um, but anyway, five and five. And, uh, so today what's left for me, I am on Carolina versus Ole Miss. These are contest plays. Liberty plus the points against Oregon.
7:30
Grand Canyon plus the points against Maryland. Memphis plus the points against Colorado State, but as I'll explain [laughs] in a minute, I have conflicts all over the place in that game.
7:40
Robert Morris, Alabama over 166.5, and then I have Alabama laying the points against Robert Morris. So I just hope Alabama goes crazy and it's an over, it's a correlated thing.
7:49
Um, and then on the right side here I got, uh, the Florida, Norfolk State under. The Grand Canyon, Maryland over, so I'll also, uh, not only Grand Canyon plus the points, but I want the over there.
8:00
And, um, what else here? Uh, Oklahoma plus the points against UConn. Iowa State laying the two touchdowns, despite not having Keshon Gilbert against Lipscomb.
8:11
By the way, uh, the discrepancy there is, uh, you gave me an X by the St. John's under, that should be a check mark. So five and five is what I was yesterday.
8:18
But to win a VSiN bracket challenge, uh, against other VSiN folks, 'cause there's a VSiN category with I think 54 of us, and then there's the, the big pool of folks who are doing it.
8:29
And by the way, when we do the big, you know, you can't really update the standings after day one of the round because some people have played all 20 games and some people have played- Right, yeah... seven games.
8:37
So you don't really know what the standings are until tomorrow. So those are my remaining 10 plays in the, uh, bracket challenge, fade or follow. The reason that I say that, um...
8:47
And by the way, I did add one ATS play for, uh, round two. Round two we'll have 10. Um, the one play I actually have in pocket, I took McNeese plus the points, the aforementioned, uh, McNeese State Cowboys.
9:00
Again, when you look at these teams, they, they beat Clemson, even though they crushed them it only ends up a two-point win, but now they have Purdue, they're catching six.
9:08
And when you look at like, you know, McNeese's performance against other top 100 teams, so in addition to that game yesterday against Clemson, even though they didn't win a bunch of them, they were always competitive.
9:16
They lost by eight to Alabama in an away game. They beat North Texas by seven at home. They lost to Liberty by four on a neutral. They lost to Santa Clara by seven at home.
9:28
They lost to Mississippi State only by three on a neutral, and then the Clemson win yesterday, where again it was only a two-point win but it should've been way more than that obviously on a neutral.
9:36
So I li- I like McNeese State plus the six against Purdue. Purdue had all kinds of trouble covering yesterday. So that's my one play in pocket, and then I'm thinking about adding Creighton plus the points against Auburn.
9:45
I haven't bet anything, that's the biggest one sticking out to me- Yeah... is Creighton. I mean, you can get, we can get nine and a half points right now. That's pretty juicy. Uh, survivor yesterday was great.
9:55
Uh, again, my survivor, three entries. You're allowed- I'm a survivor. Hey, thank you. From Football Season, there you go. Thank you, guys. Thank you, Darnell.
10:03
Um, this is, uh, this is one where I have three entries, right? You have a max three entries, and you're allowed one rebuy, one mulligan, before the Sweet 16. So I went two and three yesterday.
10:13
Uh, I hit on Arkansas, I hit on Drake, my third entry was UCSD. It's all, it's all, uh, seeding, uh, rewarded too when it comes to tiebreakers in, in terms of the standings.
10:24
So that's why I'm taking the, the longer seeds, right? So I rebought on the UCSD with Colorado State today, even though I have Memphis in this bracket challenge. So I'm all confused in that game, right?
10:36
I don't even know what I want. I probably want my survivor to win.
10:39
So the, the re-entry, which I'm, I'm one and done on, I took Colorado State, and then the other two where I had Drake and Arkansas, I ended up taking Carolina and Xavier. Carolina and Xavier.
10:50
So that's how I'm playing my survivor. But again, you have to know the rules of your survivor, 'cause if I didn't have upset rewarded or, or longer seeds or, what, what do we call it now? Higher or lower seeds?
10:59
Fairly intelligent person, still can't figure out higher and lower seeds. Um, those are lower seeds, right? No, those are higher seeds. Higher seeds. Are they higher seeds? I don't know, man. No, they're lower seeds.
11:08
You and I should never have these conversations. I take the lower seeds. There it is. There's the graphic. The graphic will display it right... There we go. Um, so there you see my won-loss, but now I'm going...
11:16
So yesterday was a 12, 11, and 10. The 11 and 10 seeds got through. Today I'm going 12, 11, and 11, and if I'm lucky enough to win all or some of those,
11:26
then I will probably get a little more conservative starting at round number two. But that's how I play my survivor. I'm on, uh, I always got you on the over-under on draft positions. Yeah. Th- this one, no.
11:36
There's no right way on that, okay? [laughs] Uh, I'm on with you, North Carolina survivor today. Let's go. This is the... Oh, you got one entry, you went- I got one, yeah... what'd you do yesterday? One through.
11:43
Gonzaga yesterday got through. The beauty of the madness, there's so many ways to play this. Actual bets, brackets, contests, survivor. Coming back
11:58
First game on VSiN, the sports betting network Horse racing fans, get ready. VSiN's bringing you right to the heart of the action. It's VSiN at the Track. You know about this, Kelly? Yeah.
12:07
The road to the Kentucky Derby, today and every Friday leading up to the Triple Crown.
12:11
With two more derby prep races coming up on Saturday, we're handicapping those races and looking at the top contenders for this year's Run for the Roses.
12:19
Join horse racing experts Mike Salmiche and Aaron Halterman today, 2:30 PM Eastern on the VSiN YouTube channel at VSiN Live.
12:26
Whether you're a seasoned handicapper or just getting into the sport of kings, we've got everything you need to prepare for this year's derby.
12:31
Don't miss VSiN at the Track streaming live today, 2:30 PM Eastern on the VSiN YouTube channel at VSiN Live as we count down to the Triple Crown. And that's how this goes, right?
12:41
March Madness gives way to, uh, to the Masters, which gives way to the NFL Draft, baseball happening in the background, our sports, uh, tennis and golf all throughout, and then, and then the Derby, right?
12:52
The first, uh, first Saturday in May. First leg of the Triple Crown. Samo Bombs every Friday. Samo Bombs. Love it. We get tweets that beat the book. I always appreciate the, uh, the feedback from everybody.
13:04
Uh, Nicky Bets 303, he's in the VSiN Bracket Challenge. He says, "I know it's early, but I'm real- am I really in 18th place? Let's go." First prize, $3,000. He's 11 and 5 out of the chutes.
13:14
Jamie Leyva, "Dropping Money B-Lines is one of the many reasons I love this show. Does a young svelte Kelly know Tupac started his career as a stage dancer for Digital Underground? Have a fantastic weekend, gentlemen."
13:25
Oh, you know what? I think I did know that. Kelly lying. Broke Dead, maybe you did. Why, why, why won't everybody- I couldn't have named the gr- I could not have named it was Digital Underground, I can tell you that.
13:34
Broke Dead, "On this Fezzik Friday, has the research team found the Love Connection episode yet?" No, we have not. Hey, I spent- We cannot find it... I spent a good seven minutes trying, though. Okay. I spent a good six.
13:46
Yeah, I can't find it. So 13 combined minutes we spent. If you, if you can find Fezzik w- uh, on Love Connection, what's the prize again? They go to the sushi spot with me? Yeah. Oh.
13:57
Ca- Or, or I'll just flat send you money too, like that's- Yeah. Cancer Free from Stage Four, "NHL since, uh, May," and, uh, that's, congratulations, by the way, Cancer Free.
14:06
Uh, Cam Ward, "At about minus 1,000 to go number one? Nope. If he goes number one, I'll be cashing a seven to one ticket I made December 12th." Good for you.
14:14
Well, well, well, while we're bragging about that, I'll be cashing minus 190 that I got a whole $30 on at Caesars Sportsbook. [laughs] Thanks, Caesars. You need security, Adam? When you win?
14:24
[laughs] I'm gonna need that, yeah, I'm gonna need that. Let's get this man security. Mario Las Vegas, "Did not have Gil dropping a Digital Underground featuring Tupac same song reference in my bracket today."
14:33
And then Buddhist Man, "What you know about Digital Underground, Kelly Bitlet?" [laughs] "RIP Shock G, the one who put the satin in your panties." Yeah. That's what he writes right there.
14:43
Uh, okay, let's get to the man, uh, who is, uh, again, I call him a pioneer in the business. He prefers, I believe one time he said legend. He hates that I keep bringing that up. [laughs] It's the great Dr.
14:52
Bob, everybody, at Dr. Bob Sports courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Bob? I'm doing all right. How would- You embarrassed me with my, with my legend the one time I said legend just as a- [laughs]...
15:04
sort of an off the cuff thing. Dead. And now I'm a cocky jerk, you know? Uh- Listen, Bob, I don't know how, I don't know if you know how this works, but when you, these are recorded.
15:12
We actually have evidence of these things. Yeah. Yeah, I get it. You know, I've been- Yeah, mm-hmm... you know, I said legend once and I can never live it down. [laughs] Sorry.
15:19
Uh, I won't say I'll never bring it up again, though. I won't make that promise [laughs] 'cause it might come up again. Listen, it's a compliment. You're a pioneer, for God's sakes. I know you, you hate that. Mm-hmm.
15:27
It makes you sound old, but you are. Yeah. Uh, in, in terms of predictive modeling of sports, um, how did the f- first of all, uh, how did the first day of March Madness treat you in terms of your bets? Pretty good.
15:39
I'm eight and four so far. That's NIT and NCAA tournament combined, so, so far, so far so good. What did you have in the dance yesterday? Yesterday, my goodness. Let's see. I'm sorry.
15:51
Um- I hate when these segments- Yeah... uh, surprise you. I apologize. Yeah. I, I lost with, uh, I took A&M with one, lost with Georgia. They got crushed. They didn't show up. I had- That was such a no-show by them.
16:04
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I had n- easy win with the Utah State, UC-LA under, and then I had Purdue for a win, BYU for a win, and Louisville got crushed.
16:14
So the two I lost were, were bad, but, uh, yesterday the four I won were, were all solid. Yeah.
16:20
Well, you know, even when you get blown out, I remember you saying, uh, many times to, uh, to Hateration on, on email, "Hey, it still counts as only one loss." Doesn't matter what the- Yeah... what the margin is.
16:29
Yeah, you don't, you don't lose, you don't lose five times as much just 'cause you lost, you know? That's right. Uh- Yeah, and I, and, and one of my other losses was, was also really bad.
16:36
So, so of the four losses, three of them were, like, ridiculously bad. [laughs] But, you know, so I've got eight wins, so that's all that counts. What might you be willing to share today? What do you have today?
16:47
Yeah, a couple. Um, I like Iowa State. The line's down to 14 against Lipscomb. I think, uh, the market has overreacted to, to Iowa State's point guard, Keyshawn Gilbert, being out.
16:58
Uh, backup Nate Heiss is actually, as far as evaluating plays, box score, plus, minus, uh, he's b- he's better in his statistical, uh, components than, uh, than Gilbert.
17:11
And also an actual plus, minus, uh, the, uh, the Iowa State Cyclones have been better with Heiss on the court than they have been with Gilbert on the court.
17:21
So I think there's been an overact- I do think there is some value to Gilbert because then, you know, you get, you're getting the, the backup of the backup sort of situation. So there are some minutes when, when, uh,
17:33
when Heiss and, uh, uh, Gilbert are both not on the court, then those are negative, but it's not as negative as the market thinks. And I just think this is a, this is a good matchup for, for Iowa State.
17:42
So I, I have them by 17 and a half. The line's only 14. So, um, I'd jump on Iowa State and, and, uh, I... Still a good value. In fact, in fact, I laid 14 and a half 'cause I thought the line was gonna go up. Wow.
17:54
It went down to 14. So- I-... so, uh, a, a, a rare one where the line went against me. I did not make a bet on that, but I have it as one of my plays in the, uh, VSiN Bracket Challenge. I like that.
18:03
Iowa State, despite not having Keyshawn Gilbert, uh, Bob thinks that should be even higher, so he has made a bet on, on the Cyclones. What's the other one? The other one is Oregon against Liberty.
18:13
Oregon's been playing really well of late. They had won eight straight games, uh, before losing to Michigan State in the Big 10 tournament. No shame there.
18:22
Uh, but it's not uncommon for Oregon under Dana Altman to, um, rally late in the season.
18:29
He, he tends to get his, his rotation just right later in the season, plays a lot of players early in the year generally, and then, and then, and then by the time February rolls around, late February, he kind of dials it in.
18:40
Uh, since, since 2012, so this is basically the Dana Altman era, uh, in game number 28 or more of the season, uh, Oregon is 71, 37 and 4 against the spread, um, 40, 21 and 1 against the spread in the post-season, and 17 and 6 against the number in NCAA tournament games.
18:59
Um, and the current rotation, the way I rate the rotations, is about a point and a half better than the season rotation. And, uh, I have the, I think it's, I have the Ducks by 10. I think Liberty's a little overvalued.
19:12
So I have the Ducks by 10, and they're favored by... They were six and a half when I released it. That one is up to seven, so that's, uh- Wow... Oregon minus seven. All right.
19:20
Liberty a, Liberty an even more popular dog than Lipscomb is. Everybody seems to have Liberty plus the points.
19:25
But, but, but they do say even when they take Liberty, "I'm going against Dana Altman," so they are, they, uh, anecdotally- Yeah, which he- Yeah... is silly, silly in the post-season.
19:33
Silly in the- I mean, late in the season, Oregon almost every single year is really good late in the season, so.
19:39
Um, what other things do you do, Bob, uh, personally besides, you know, making your, uh, bets and you're giving your bets out to clients? Are, you're in a bunch of pools. Where, are you in a, uh, survivor pool?
19:49
What do you do this time of year? No, I, I, I'm in a pool that I've been with friends for 30 years, you know, like a 150-person sort of thing, um, and, uh, that's about it.
20:01
I, I used to be in some bigger pools, but I just kind of just make it simple and, um, just have the one pool that I'm in, and I have a couple entries, one for me, one for my wife, one for my son.
20:10
[laughs] My son is Action Jackson. He, he tends to be a wild card, so I'm not set- One for my son. Your son is how old? He's, he's almost eight. Is he making his picks or are you making them for him, Bob?
20:21
Occasionally I will ask him, "Who do you like between this and this?" He has no idea, and then I just put down, you know, whatever he says and- Whatever he says... then he, that's why he's a wild card.
20:29
[laughs] That's fair. Um, Action- Yeah... yeah. So basically in one pool, I, I, and my gut says Florida is gonna win it all.
20:38
Um, but the, but the- That was my, that was my next question, 'cause I know you do projections like that. Yeah. My, my, Duke is my highest rated team if, if Cooper Flagg is 100%. My gut says Florida.
20:48
They remind me of Connecticut, just good in every area, good, and, and, and, and they have the makeup of a team that should do well in the NCAA tournament. Um, but the public loves Florida, too. I'm not the only one.
21:00
And then so the value, when I'm filling out your bracket, I look at what the nation's doing.
21:04
I look at ESPN or, or Yahoo and check out what everybody's picking, and I compare it to my chance of making these rounds, and there's negative value on Florida. There's no value in it.
21:13
So if you take a team like Florida, I always say just, well, make sure you induce, you, you put some variance somewhere else in your bracket,
21:20
um, you know, with value, uh, to, to, you know, to differentiate yourself, like take Iowa State to make the Final Four or something like that. Um, so I, I, like Duke's my highest rated team if Cooper Flagg's 100%.
21:32
I, I just, gut in my said, says Florida, so I took Florida, and I ended up, I just for the first time ever, I took all number four and number one seeds. I just think it's a choppy tournament. Wow. Yeah.
21:41
That, that sort of answers- At least remember... Kelly's question from earlier. Bob's sure. Okay, Bob is sure.
21:45
[laughs] We, we do a segment called Are We Sure, and one of the questions was are we sure that, uh, any of the top seeds will be beaten before the Final Four?
21:53
And I mentioned it hasn't happened since 2008, but there's, it's a better answer from you than it is from me. It's just, yeah, it's just I, I've never had that before, and, um, it's just one of those years.
22:03
I just think the top four teams are all just... There, there's a separation, unlike I've seen in other years.
22:11
Um, they're clearly better than the, than the, than the fifth team, which is, you know, probably a Tennessee, Alabama-ish kind of team.
22:19
Um, three, three, three points, three, three points better than the, than the fifth team, which is, I've never seen that, so. All right. I, I just, that's the way it worked out and that's what I took, so.
22:29
Uh, predictive sports modeling pioneer, legend, vanguard, trailblazer, forerunner. [laughs] Dr. Bob. Thank you, Bob. All right, good luck today. Malika next.
22:39
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
22:55
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. We don't care how you're taking us in.
23:05
We just appreciate that you are any which way, any of the above. That's right. Or as Kelly says, if you do them all together, that'd be kind of cool. Yeah, yeah.
23:11
Take a, take a video of that, not just a picture, 'cause I need to be able to hear everything. We got, uh, Fezzik coming up. We got Malika coming up, uh, Friday's second hour.
23:20
We love this so much, and Grace Remington will join us, our own Grace Remington, uh, with a vibe report from, uh, Circus Sportsbook right behind us.
23:27
It's called the vibe report, but it's also a vibe report, you know what I mean? Can I... I'll give you an early vibe report. Well. Where are y'all at? This place was jammed yesterday.
23:36
Well, uh, they, uh, maybe they [laughs] maybe they lost all their money anyway. [laughs] Maybe, yeah. Still, still got an hour and 15 minutes away from a tip-off. Let me go through some tweets first.
23:43
So I only want to go through a few of these.
23:44
You know how, like, sometimes you get a tweet and it still lives on your feed, but then the guy deletes it afterwards, but, uh, you can still see it though- Ooh, yeah, yeah, yeah... 'cause, 'cause I haven't refreshed?
23:52
This might be the most offensive tweet I've ever gotten in my life. You ready for this? Oh, this is good. J- JC562076 since deleted. He says, "Hey, have you seen the movie Office Space?" he says to me.
24:02
I'm like, "Yeah, of course I've seen the movie Office Space." He goes, [laughs] "You, you remind me of the opening scene in the movie," he goes, "in the most complimentary way possible."
24:10
Do you remember what the opening scene is? No, I don't.
24:12
There was a dude li- I wanna look, like, what the opening scene- There was a dude listening to hip hop and then, like, he [laughs] had to roll up his windows and- Oh, when he's stuck in traffic, right? Yes.
24:19
He's stuck in traffic. Oh, dude. Yeah, that's great. That is not me at all. [laughs] I don't know. That's the worst thing [laughs] that's the worst thing anybody, anybody ever said to me. Ryan Hyatt, "Are you ready?
24:28
It's time for- That's hilarious... dump button Friday," he says, "on the glorious and much talked about second hour of a Numbers Game with Gil, Kelly on VSiN. Who will force Kelly to hit that button today?
24:37
Will it be Malika, Fezzik, or the wildcard entrant, Grace Remington?" We have had a history. What, what Ryan is referring to is a history of potty mouth- F- uh, Fezzik Fridays and Falica Fridays and Dr. Bob Fridays.
24:48
We got through Dr. Bob okay. We got through Bob clean, so yeah, it's- Whoo... he's, he's the favorite every Friday, so. Let's bring, uh, Chris Falica in, The Bear, from, uh, Fox Sports, part of the Bear...
24:57
Not, not, not only part of, he's the emperor of the Bear Bets Empire over there. Uh, multiple podcasts. You have a, uh, question from Twitter, Chris. First of all, good morning to you, sir. Um- Morning...
25:07
courtesy the Progressive Guest Line. We have a question on Twitter for me. We'll start with Air Bronco Wins. Ooh. Roger Jones says, "Hi, Gil. Can you ask," and he writes this, he goes, "Can you ask Mr.
25:15
El Oso," that's The Bear in, in f- in Spanish, "if he feels his handicapping gets a bump after being in a big tournament?" You were just in the big horse racing, uh- Mm-hmm... tournament out here. Yes or no?
25:26
Yes, I, I, I do.
25:27
That's actually a great question, and I never fully like thought about it, but I, I do think it does because, uh, I'm just consuming so many different races and so many different tracks over the course of three or four days that, uh, I, I'm watching and noticing things that I probably wouldn't have seen, uh, i- if it wasn't for being present in a tournament like that.
25:50
So I'm, I'm seeing results, and I'm seeing trips, and I'm seeing horses and looking at past performances that maybe I wouldn't necessarily have looked at. So I'm fi- I'm filing all of these things away.
26:00
I'm, I'm seeing results happen. Maybe, uh, did, did sh- did I have the right horse? Did I maybe... Again, be like, there was horse, um, at, uh, Fair Grounds that I...
26:08
Uh, not Fair Grounds, uh, Oakland that I had at like 19 to one that, that ran second and just had a, uh, uh, started late, I guess.
26:16
It kind of broke a little slow and came flying up for second, so if the horse breaks, uh, better, he probably wins.
26:22
So, um, yeah, there, there, there's things that you maybe wouldn't have noticed that you file away for later. So yeah, good, good question, and I, I do think that it does.
26:29
And, and just the fact that you're in that room talking to a bunch of people, uh, about their opinions as well.
26:35
I, I always say like whenever I lose a wager or, or, or see a wager someone win that I maybe wouldn't have had, I always like to use it as a learning experience and figure out why I missed something and why someone else may have won on it.
26:47
How did your friend do, by the way? 'Cause I know going into the- Yeah... last day your friend was like in sixth place. How did he do in the end? He finished al- Alex finished eighth. Eighth. He, he had a great run.
26:55
He finished eighth and took home I think just under $100,000. Another- Wow. Whoo. Another guy, another guy at my, my table finished 20th. Another g- colleague of mine, so it's a...
27:05
It was a, uh, a good ta- a, a good week for everybody there e- e- except for me, who, uh, got to the cut line with three races to go on Saturday, and then I, uh, I couldn't get another winner.
27:14
But I was, uh, super happy for Alex and Paul. Well, the, the first hour when I was busy talking about college basketball, Kelly was spending the whole hour trying to, uh, find the r- the horse race that you bet on today.
27:23
[laughs] Only like five minutes. Where, where is that horse, and who is that horse? To- tomorrow. Yeah, tomorrow. We... It's a big day at Fair Grounds tomorrow. Uh, Louisiana Derby, uh, Fair Ground Oaks.
27:33
It's kind of their last go-around of Kentucky Derby preps. And look, y- you see four to five in a horse race, you know to always wanna take, uh, four to five, but really it's not that bad of a price.
27:45
If I'm looking at the number seven horse, uh, in the Fair Ground Oaks tomorrow, Good Cheer, uh, she's probably going to be the significant favorite, uh, in the Kentuck- in the Kentucky Oaks.
27:54
Uh, she's five for five lifetime for Brad Cox, five daylight wins. Uh, you look, you look at the field, and the only horse that I think that could potentially, could, uh, upset her is the number three horse, Aha.
28:06
Uh, Sherry Davosa horse, second time out, uh, eight to one. Like I said, I'd be looking it up, betting the number seven horse at four to five. Good Cheer to, uh, take an undefeated record into the, uh, uh, Kentucky Oaks.
28:18
Uh, before we get to your, uh, international football picks, uh, otherwise known as soccer- Mm-hmm... uh, we had a little bit of clairvoyance here happen, uh, prior to the, uh, segment.
28:27
Uh, Kelly, we, we did are we sure earlier, estamos seguros. We did are we sure, and Kelly didn't read through his whole list, and one of the things you had was are we sure that the... Well, what...
28:38
Do you have a specific team? July, are we sure- Yeah... Aaron Rodgers is a better quarterback option than Jameis Winston? [laughs] And, and Chris Falica had no knowledge of this. No knowledge of this.
28:48
And randomly before the segment asked. I, I, I said are, are, are, are we sure you wouldn't rather have Jameis Winston as quarterback as Aaron Rodgers?
28:57
You guys were talking a- about, about like making a joke about, uh, the Giants and winning a Super Bowl with Jameis Winston and Malik Nabers, and I'm sitting here just 'cause like Aaron's been, uh, rumored to the Giants, and I'm like, "I don't know.
29:10
I, I might actually rather prefer to have Jameis than Aaron Rodgers right now." I think I would too. It's just so much drama around Aaron Rodgers. I mean, older, I mean, Jameis, his teammates love him.
29:21
Yeah, he throws some picks, but he, I mean, I don't, I don't know. That's a... And you look at the, like the salary cap, the hit that you're gonna take as well. Like, I don't think that's a...
29:31
That, that's like the worst decision you could possibly make. Give me Jameis- Give me Jameis... and plus 25 over Aaron Rodgers. Give me Jameis. I really hope he ends up on the Giants.
29:39
Like, Giants fans, you're not gonna be good anyways. Like you might as well- Oh... have some fun with Jameis throwing bombs- That's right... to Malik Nabers all year. At least, at least make it not boring.
29:47
And- That's right Yeah, and, and we're gonna have to sit here and watch that. I'm, I'm not gonna say the word. [laughs] I don't, I don't, I don't wanna hear any, any, any fashion tickets is what it's all about.
29:57
Remember- I don't wanna hear that... remember, it's a- But I mean, we- they're gonna put him in prime time 19 times. Give us Jameis. It's, it's a- Let's have fun... it's a bigger crime to be boring than it is to suck.
30:06
That's right. That's right. So Giants, come on, do the right thing. Uh, what about your soccer plays? What do you have? I, I, the, the...
30:12
I had to put two plays here just because the, the, the, the under that I really like is minus two o- five. You know, I don't like...
30:20
I'm not gonna give out a minus two oh five, but tomorrow, uh, I, I put together a, a two, a two-legged parlay. It comes out to minus 102. Uh, League 1, Wrexham, Stockport, under two and a half.
30:32
Uh, Wrexham is, uh, obviously everybody knows Wrexham. Uh, they're looking for automatic promotion up to the championship league next year.
30:39
They're tied for with, with Wycombe who they just beat last week, but they're down on goal differential.
30:44
Uh, Stockport's in a, in, in a spo- in a spot for a, uh- A promotion berth in the, uh, in the playoff at least right now. Both teams have been playing lower scoring games lately.
30:54
I think this is a very deliberate match, an under two and a half in, uh, Wrexham, Stockport tomorrow is something that I like.
31:01
And then I parlayed that with League Two, uh, the double chance with, uh, Walsall versus Gillingham, and that, and that's a, gets you to, get- gets you to minus 102. Walsall's the, the top of the table in, in League Two.
31:14
They've kind of made a mess of things lately. They had a big lead a- and now their lead is only three points, and Gillingham's really further down on the table. They're, Walsall's on the road.
31:24
They should at least come away, uh, with a point here. So Walsall double chance against Gillingham, and, uh, Wrexham and Stockport under two and a half. That gets you to minus 102.
31:34
These are two of the most convoluted picks we've ever had in the history of the show. [laughs] I really wish Chris Flick would stop stealing my plays. Let, let me, let me repeat.
31:41
In horse racing he's got- I feel like Nigel... good cheer in the Fair Grounds Oaks. That's the 11th race tomorrow.
31:48
Then he has a soccer parlay, the Wrexham, Stockport under two and a half parlayed with Walsall's double chance, and that comes out to minus 102. Because why not? Because why- Wait, I think I- Because why not...
31:58
I think I have a legit follow-up question. Yes. Isn't Wrexham, Stockport like a rivalry? Did I learn that in watching the show, uh, Chris, or no? Am I with it? I believe it is, yes. Okay. Well. We both believe it is.
32:09
[laughs] Now we get... Glad, glad we got that squared away. All right. Makes it even more up for an under. Let's, let's go to the big dance. What did you bet today? Yeah, I, I, I'm, I'm oppo you and Jason there.
32:19
I, I took Ole Miss plus the one and a half. Um, again, Chris Beard is a, is a tournament coach in the first round that you don't wanna, uh, really bet against. North Carolina just seems like everybody's darling now.
32:32
This was a UNC team that really hadn't done anything, uh, during the course of the year.
32:36
They, n- now we're lauding them, we're moving them through to the, the Sweet 16 or the Elite Eight because they beat a bad Mountain West team.
32:42
Uh, I, I, I think they're run up against an Ole Miss team, plays much better defensively, has much more, uh, m- m- many more scoring options, um, than San Diego State did. So I like the Rebs plus the one and a half.
32:55
And then, uh, tomorrow, uh, I, I laid the seven and a half with Texas Tech for whatever bankroll I have left after yesterday. Uh, I love Texas Tech.
33:04
They kinda got their bad game out of the way, uh, yesterday when Wilmington kinda made a game of that. They should get McMillan back, uh, playing Drake. Look, Dr- Drake, congratulations.
33:14
You, you, you dribbled down your leg and you survived against an Ole Miss team that really c- couldn't get out of its own way. [laughs] Uh, you're not gonna face that tomorrow.
33:23
I love Texas Tech laying the seven and a half tomorrow. Um, Survivor, you're in, uh, we're in Survivor together. You, how did you do yesterday? Mm-hmm. I went one and two.
33:32
Uh, I had Creighton, which was the b- birth one in the bag, which was great. I won that, and then I, uh, I had Georgia, which decided not to show up. But then I had Yale, which obviously decided not to show up either.
33:44
So I- [laughs]... I went one and two, and I bought back on the other two, and I went Baylor today. You, what did you do today? I went Baylor today. All in. I went Baylor, Baylor on two and Liberty on the other.
33:55
Baylor on two and Liberty on the other. Again, it's upset rewarded- Yeah... so that's why he went Liberty- Right...
33:59
uh, on the other, which is, um- Especially with the one, especially with the one, ones that r- you rebuy. You rebuy.
34:04
You, you really need to p- you really need to pick up, uh, seed points there in order to have a, uh, a chance later on.
34:09
That's all right, 'cause you're sh- that's right, 'cause you're starting at zero with the rebuy, uh, entry. Uh, Chris, always a pleasure. By the way, the Georgia thing, we're not making enough of that.
34:16
That was one of the weirdest no-shows I- 40 to five, is that what it was? There's 30, 27 to three and then 30 to five. Oh. Yeah. Embarrassing. Yeah, that's not good. Not good. It just means more in the SEC.
34:28
[laughs] It just means more. Thank you, Chris. Appreciate it as always. You got it. Steve Fezzik, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest, next on A Numbers Game.
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