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Mar 23, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | March 23, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | March 23, 2026
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0:27
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1:26
They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you. It is a numbers game at VSiN.
1:35
V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, SiriusXM channel 158. However you take it us in, we appreciate it. Gil Alexander. Kelly Bidlin in the house on this Monday morning.
1:47
Good morning, sir. Good morning. How we doing? Good. How was your weekend? Great, man. Fantastic weekend in Vegas. Um, Matthew Fitzpatrick hit for you? Yes, he did. Got one home after last week.
1:57
What was, what was the number on Matthew Fitzpatrick? Uh, 14 to one, and then a little over 15 at Calshi. Are we going Matthew or Matt, by the way? Hmm, that's a great question. Yeah. I- I usually go Matt Fitzpatrick.
2:07
Either way, it cashes for you. Yeah. Be great. Either way it cashes. Yeah. Yeah. Like, what was the- I haven't been able to ask him, though, what he prefers. Yeah. What was the number again? I'm sorry.
2:13
Plus 1560 at Calshi- There you go... or 14 to one in town. Oh, slipped in a little Calshi bet there before the, uh, the old- All right, uh... two, two-week, uh, shutdown, huh? I had a lot on Calshi this weekend.
2:23
[laughs] You, you guys, you and Danny freaked the hell out of me with those texts on Friday. Oh, I didn't send them, 'cause- I, I know... 'cause you know my attitude. It's like, "Good luck, Nevada."
2:31
I was, I was running around doing errands, and I'm like, "Oh, boy, I got a lot of golf bets on there." Good luck, Nevada. But, uh- Anyway, that's a whole nother subject... yeah, I guess quick update on there.
2:39
You can't make bets. Any of your bets that you still have, you can get money out. Yeah, it's just a two-week- Which is the way it should work... it's a two-week, uh, tantrum window- Yeah... is what I call it. Yeah, yeah.
2:48
Yeah. If that's well said. Think there's a two or, two-week, uh, stave off here. Uh, this show brought to you by Prophet X, the tournament. We will get all into it here momentarily.
2:57
Hope you're still alive in your, uh, survivor, in your brackets, all that.
3:01
Greg Peterson will join us later this hour for a couple segments, give all of his thoughts on the weekend that was, and of course, the Sweet 16 spreads already. What has he played? What is he looking at?
3:13
What does he not like? Uh, we'll get into that with Greg. Also, uh, Wes Reynolds will join us later. We'll talk March Madness with him as well. Uh, and, uh, of course, Adam Burke, our standard Monday guest as well.
3:23
We'll talk March Madness and maybe a little baseball with him as well. Uh, how's your survivor? You alive? I got one left, Gil. I got one left too. I got one left. I got good news and I got bad news.
3:33
Good news is I'm alive. Bad news is I probably got no shot at winning. Oh, you don't have a good path, uh, one left? No, because this, this gets back to... Let's, let's go back to, let's harken back to last week.
3:45
And, and, and all through the college basketball season. Never harken forward. You know, you don't harken forward. We still, we still don't harken forward. No, no. Can't harken that way. The...
3:53
What, what was I saying all, all this time was we're gonna have a, a tournament where the upsets are gonna be few and far between. Yeah. Right? And so the result I said was for upset rewarded brackets and for survivor,
4:06
your ability to win is gonna be so targeted to the few upsets that happen. Mm-hmm. Right? You're gonna have to pick them off 'cause there's gonna be so few opportunities for that to go down.
4:18
Now, after Thursday, right, it was funny driving in here Friday morning and hearing everybody's overreaction on the one day records.
4:25
VCU won as an 11, Texas won as an 11, and High Point won as a 12, and everybody was like, "Oh, it's gonna be way better than people thought it was." Yep.
4:33
And when they said "people," I sort of felt like it was a personal attack on me. And as, as, as I said F- Friday morning here on the show, I'm like, "Well, why don't we give it another day?
4:41
And then after we give it another day, why don't we give it the weekend?"
4:43
And so in the end, right, with the 16 seeds that, uh, that are available in the Sweet 16, we only have four seeds that are out of form, one in each region. In the South, the only non...
4:58
Excuse me, let's start in the east. The, the only non-one-through-four that's in, number five St. John's, right? It took down Kansas yesterday.
5:06
In the South, the only non one-through-four that's in is number nine Iowa, who upset number one seeded Florida in the South.
5:15
In the West, the only non one-through-four that got through is number 11 Texas, from the first four to the Sweet 16. Everybody else to form in terms of seeding.
5:24
And in the Mountain West, the only seed that got through that's not first four is number six Tennessee, uh, which took down number three, the, the Wahoos of UVA yesterday.
5:33
And by the way, I can't speak about Iowa maybe, but T- Texas and Tennessee are just, they're, they're just good basketball teams, Gil. Yeah, these are, these are not, again, these are not Cinderellas, right? Yeah.
5:43
These are, these are- [laughs] The University of Texas, uh, athletic program. Yeah. [laughs] Yeah, these are, these are big-time schools with, uh, with big NIL money.
5:52
And so, a- and by the way, and Will brought this up on the Shoulda Been More podcast last night, which he was kind enough to have me on. If Iowa doesn't beat Florida yesterday- Mm-hmm...
6:01
oh, my God, is everybody talking this way- Mm-hmm... this morning, right? That sort of That sort of gloss, you know, uh, what's, what sort of, uh, covered this up a little bit. Yes, it does. It will. Right? Yes. It will.
6:14
It, it has and it will. 'Cause- Over the conversation over the next couple days, yep. Yeah.
6:18
Other, if that doesn't happen, if Florida wins, if that three-point shot, d- first of all, if they defend it better and, or secondly, it doesn't go in and Florida wins,
6:26
then it's like it's three schools and none of whom, right, Tennessee, Texas, and St. John's would be the only [laughs] three non-top four seeds to get in. Then you have a tournament basically devoid- Mm-hmm...
6:39
of anything. And Iowa, by the way, obviously is a, is a, uh, you know, top four conference school too, so it's not like they're, uh, they're wearing the crown of Cinderella either.
6:48
By the way, I don't know if you know this, back in the day they were the crown. Were they Cinderellas? No. Yes. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. So anyway, you get the idea. A tiara. So it's, it's exactly what we thought it was.
6:56
But my survivor, getting back to that is, yeah, it's the one where
7:01
I don't have n- now bec- w- let's get back to what I was saying last week, which is you have to be able to pinpoint those in upset-minded brackets or in survivor the upsets early, pardon me, which I did.
7:12
But because I had to use a mulligan on this one- Mm-hmm... right, what do I have left to advance past the people in front of me? Yes. Yeah. And that's the point of what I'm talking about. There is no chance, right?
7:24
In, in other words, the upset-minded pools and the bra- and the, uh, and the survivor pools are now happening to you as opposed to you actually happening to it. So in other words, you're forced,
7:36
you're forced to take number nine Iowa. You're forced to take, if you have them available, right? Yeah. And I don't even have Texas available, right? You're forced to take number 11 Texas to get past...
7:46
Unless you're just tr- unless you're like my buddy Tommy, your buddy Casey- Mm-hmm... you're just trying to get to the end and you have no idea what you're doing. Yeah. No, I'm, I'm with you. Yeah. This was a pretty...
7:54
Unfortunately, the Iowa, [laughs] I think it's gonna be relatively easy. Actually, I don't even know which day we're saying, but Thursday. Yeah. Thursday, Iowa. I don't- Which I think is probably where I'm going.
8:04
But the upshot of it is it takes the fun out, b- because there's no Cinderellas in the actual tournament- Right. Right...
8:10
it almost rips most of the fun out of lengthy, even if you're still alive, participating in those pools. Mm-hmm. I hope people understand that. No, yeah.
8:20
Which it's, it's as fun as it is, it's like sort of it's like, "Oh, well I gotta take this team." No, totally. Like, "I gotta take this team." 'Cause you're trying to game it one way. Yeah, yeah.
8:26
And it's, yes, when you're getting to this point, I don't know if, uh, maybe we can get a tight shot at Gil's face. I don't know how proud...
8:31
I, I don't know if he's gonna be a look of pride or disgust that I'm about to... This is, this is my one, the one path survivor bracket that I've just been carrying around in my pocket for the past three days now. Nice.
8:43
Kinda- I'm very proud of you... it's kinda weird, right? I'm very proud of you. Yeah, but like I had to keep them organized, and you can't get- [laughs]... you can't get readily updated brackets, you know what I mean?
8:50
So for the survivor pass, especially when you're doing multiple and different ones, you need to be writing them all down. Yeah. So there's a lot of, yeah, there's a lot of markers, so.
8:58
C- congratulations to all who are looking good in either their bracket or their survivor pool. By the way, just in terms of conference representation, pre-tournament, talking 68 teams.
9:08
Kelly, uh, four, the four top conferences, right, the four power conferences at the top, a record 35 of 68, uh, were, it was in that. We're actually showing 64, I believe. No, w- we're, this is 68 we're talking.
9:23
A record 35 before the play-ins came from the Big Four conferences, SEC, Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12.
9:30
Never before had there been 35, and that has, you know, the Alan Bostons of the world up in arms that so many would come from those Big Four.
9:36
Well, of the remaining 16, remember 35 of 68 were from the Big Four, 16, excuse me, 14 of 16 now. 14 of 16 are from those four conferences, so- That's wild. Yeah. It's, uh, that's, that's what it is.
9:54
Now what, it's, it's... Did I get it right? Thir- yeah, 14, 'cause ACC gets one. So Duke is the only ACC team remaining. The Big East is, is not considered one of the Big Four here, right? So it's St.
10:06
John's and UConn from the Big East. But you've got, going upwards, right, you got three from the b- [laughs] three from the Big 12, uh, still alive, four in the SEC and six in the Big Ten.
10:20
It's just, uh, it's as top-heavy as you would expect. The, the Big Ten is really, I mean, if you look at the pre- It's just ridiculous...
10:26
if you look at the percentages, six of the nine Big Tens are in, and I guess you could say two of the three Big Easts. So 67% from both of those conference have gotten from 64/68 to 16.
10:39
Uh, you, you and I have always been very, just very nice, uh, to these leagues and everything when it comes to scheduling.
10:45
How, like, you know, w- we've talked about how great the NCAA tournament is, except for we pointed out how the lulls on Saturday and Sunday were gonna happen, and they were gonna suck, and they did.
10:53
Uh, I'm la- I'm kinda laughing at the idea that they don't have, like, Thursday and Friday are set up so well, right, timing-wise with games.
11:00
But they don't have, like, they don't have a Houston Texans slot to, like, bury, uh, to bury Iowa-Nebraska. You know? I mean, there's no 9:00 AM, like, tip time or anything for us out here.
11:09
The, uh, uh, I hope every, uh, the, we talked about the round of 32 Saturday and Sunday, how the scheduling just sucks yesterday and the day before. No, it's brutal. Two games are played before 5:10 Eastern. It's brutal.
11:21
But we went through all that. Um, by the way, the, uh, the ACC teams that got knocked out, one of eight ACC teams, right, the other way around, not the opposite of the Big Ten and...
11:32
UVA, Miami, Carolina, NC State, Clemson, Louisville, and SMU. Yeah, not a good look. No. Straight up record, 39 and 9 so far. Favorites, 27, 19 and 2. And, uh, the total's pretty much a coin flip at this point.
11:47
So the, the, what's the other side of having very few upsets? Man, these Sweet 16 matchups are nice. Mm-hmm.
11:54
Washington DC gets the, uh, the best of the bunch, I would think, uh, y- out in the East, where you have Duke and St. John's and Michigan State and UConn as your two games. That's out- outstanding. But just great games.
12:07
And the one spread, and I'll just sort of throw this out as my one bet that I've made so far
12:13
And this is probably pretty popular, but Will had me on very fr- we were just going through the, uh, the spreads as they came out. St.
12:18
John's plus all those points against Duke I think is going to be the most popular, and I am with everybody on this.
12:25
I just, I don't feel like the Jo- the Johnnies don't feel, to me, like a team that is particularly blow-out-able at this moment- Mm-hmm... with that defense.
12:34
Of course, Duke can, Duke can t- turn that around real quick, uh, come, uh, Thursday, Friday night when they play, uh, out in DC for the Eastern regional semis in the Sweet 16. But St.
12:44
John's plus the seven is the first place I went. I think that checks out. Um, the first thought I had was under on that game, just not trusting what I'm seeing from St. John's offense and then Duke struggling.
12:56
And I just made a bet, actually. Houston to lay two-and-a-half with because, um, steam chasing again, Gil. Yeah. Well, well, uh- We're out to 33-and-a-half on Houston... Dan loves to chase some steam. Yep.
13:05
We'll, uh, we'll update the formula, we'll update the, uh, VSIN bracket challenge on the other side, and more. Numbers Game, VSIN, the sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge.
13:17
That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you.
13:27
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13:34
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13:44
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13:49
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks, built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
14:02
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
14:09
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
14:18
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
14:25
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
14:39
A Numbers Game on VSIN, the sports betting network. Brackets are for everyone. This is for bettors. The VSIN March Betting Challenge still going, and it's not too late to get in on the action.
14:49
We're down to the Sweet 16 in this round. You have to make five picks, spreads or totals. There's still plenty of prizes still on the line, including $2,000 for the overall champ.
14:57
And if you have a free Edge Boost account, every prize doubles. Head to vsin.com/contest and get your picks in now. Uh, we, the, uh, w- uh, at VSIN, every show did their own entry into the VSIN bracket challenge.
15:13
Total sides, that's it, full game. We ended up through 30 games. You know where we are, by the way, through 30? I have no idea, actually. We are 15 and 15. Sounds about right.
15:23
[laughs] I was just, I was way more focused on the, you put it together in a full list of the, just the, I don't wanna say brutal, but just the beats we've taken so far- Oh, it's brutal...
15:32
and it's just like, man- It's brutal... like, this could be so much better. We're only two games behind VSIN Prime Time. They're 17 and 13. They're in the lead. Okay. Um, and I feel like- In striking distance...
15:43
and I feel like after all the stuff that's gone against us, I was like, "Wow, that's not..." We had Santa Clara versus Kentucky. Mm-hmm. Uh, we had UCLA plus the eight-and-a-half versus UCF yesterday. Mm. Uh, St.
15:57
John's versus Kansas, Vandy versus Nebraska, Kansas versus Cal Baptist. I mean, there's a bunch of these where it's like, this is the most Plinko thing ever. But anyway, 15 and 15 is where we are. Um,
16:10
I'm sure there's a lot of p- folks, it's not just us, right? I'm sure there's a lot of guys that were on the, a lot of shows that were on the wrong end of, uh, of a bunch of those. Oh, yes. Yes, definitely.
16:18
So it's clearly, we, we're, it's clearly not reserved for us. But man, the college basketball, like any sport, has its, uh, results where you're like, "Really? That just happened to me?" Th- there are- Yeah...
16:28
d- that shot at the end of the Vanderbilt game. Oh, halfway down. That one's gonna take me a while to move on from. Like, that is, that every t- I mean, I, I good on the, good on coach and the c- coaches.
16:39
I know Nebraska coach was saying this too, of just like, I, that, that's it. Every time you see that shot, it's in. It was online, hit almost exactly where you wanted. You, you're talking- Yeah... about a half inch, man.
16:50
Well, that had the massive survivor implications for me. Me too, yeah. So before that, through two games, I had 18 points, 11 and 7 seeds. That was the one where I'm like, "Oh, if that goes down, I'm in this."
17:00
That one hurt me too. Yep. Yep. But it did not. And I think we know another gentleman who might have, uh, been on the wrong side of Vandy. I think he had them in the Final Four, but he does have Purdue winning it all.
17:09
Ladies and gentlemen, without further ado, Greg Hoops Peterson, joining us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at gunit_81. Greg, look at that smile. Look at this guy.
17:19
Is this the greatest time of year? How you doing, man? How was your weekend? It is a great time of year, and you pretty much read off all the beats that I had as well.
17:28
So if you're thinking, "Man, we got a little bit unlu- lucky," well, misery, it has company, my friend. [laughs] How are you? I'm doing very well.
17:35
Yeah, I'm sure, believe me, I, I know we have company on, on many of those. Um, you had Santa Clara too, which was probably the- And the under in that game. Oh, God, [laughs] and the under.
17:45
[laughs] That was the, uh, that was the, the Otega Owonye unbelievable three right after the three that Santa Clara hit that forced overtime.
17:56
That may be the most fantastic finish of all of these, I guess, if we had to rank them, but there have certainly been great f- great finishes in all this, obviously Iowa beating Florida, the most, uh, impactful perhaps in the tournament when all is said and done in terms of fantastic finish.
18:11
Let's go through these one by one first before we get to anything else. I wanna, uh, before I... Well, actually, let me ask you this first. What, was there anything that surprised you big time the last four days from 68?
18:22
Well, we'll include the play-in games f- few days before that. Anything that surprised you big time, or is this pretty much where you thought we'd be at the Sweet 16? The fact that Texas is our Cinderella right now.
18:33
I thought we might be able to get a little bit more of the Texas being a Cinderella, because I... You just don't really think of that.
18:40
But that said, obviously the biggest shocker was the fact that Iowa knocks off Florida. I did take the points with Iowa. I thought that they would be able to be in the game.
18:49
I thought that it was, like, two different strengths. Florida obviously such a good team down low. Iowa's such a good team with their back court. I didn't think they were gonna be able to win that game outright.
18:59
First time for Iowa in the NCAA tournament since 1999. Like, you recall them losing to Northwestern State as a three seed. You recall them as a two seed not getting the job done.
19:10
First time since 1999 they make it here with a guy that 24 months ago was coaching at the Division II ranks. That to me was a shocker, and that to me was the treat of the weekend.
19:22
First time since '99 in the Sweet 16, you mean, correct? Yes. Yes. In the Sweet 16. Uh, were you as mortified by that Florida defense on that final play as I was? Yeah, that was not great to say the least.
19:35
Like, you're down two points, or... Uh, that was a one-po- that was a two-point game- Yeah... and then they bury the three. But man, I mean, that's one of those things where it's like, "What are you guys doing?"
19:45
They're actually down one point the previous possession, but they went one of two at the free throw line. Yeah. So it became a two-point game, and that was a theme all weekend long.
19:54
Like, I was in on Vanderbilt to be able to make the Final Four. They go, I believe it was 11 of 19 at the free throw line. Like, those free throws add up.
20:02
That is a big reason why every single time you handicap, you have to look at free throws, and sometimes it does no good. Like, I was in on St. Mary's in that first-round game. St.
20:13
Mary's was the number one team in the country in terms of free throw shooting percentage. They shoot less than 50% at the free throw line.
20:18
That, those are one th- those things that you just toss up your hands and you're like, "Well, I thought I was getting in with the better free throw shooting team. Guess I was out."
20:26
But I do think that that's always so important to be taking a look at, trying to be able to account for, because free throws was a big deciding factor, not just in terms of straight-up results, but definitely against the spread as well.
20:38
For sure. Uh, I have other follow-up questions about the tournament. We'll get to those, but I wanna get the Thursday games out of the way, get your thoughts on these. Let's start with, um, let's start with I- Ill-...
20:48
Well, I'll do these in chronological order. How about that, on Thursday? Let's start with Iowa and Nebraska. Iowa and Nebraska, which sounds like a, uh, great football rivalry, but we've got it here in the Sweet 16.
21:00
Uh, Iowa a one-and-a-half-point dog. Nebraska favored by one and a half here, total about 133 and a half.
21:09
I would be willing to lay the one half with Nebraska, mainly because with Nebraska, they pretty much just dare you to shoot from three.
21:16
They're a top 25 team in terms of percentage of their own field goal attempts that come from three-point range, and a top 10 team in terms of opponent's field goal attempts that come from three, but teams shoot less than 30% from three against them.
21:28
I actually thought that Iowa was getting a good matchup against Florida, because Florida does not shoot the three well at all.
21:34
For Nebraska, they're much like Iowa, but I think that they just do it a little bit better than Iowa, because you do have that dominant big man in Rick Mass who's able to give you six-plus rebounds per game.
21:44
I really like the way that you've got the narrative of Pryce Samford as well, the top scorer for Nebraska, who began his career over at Iowa. So there's gonna be no love lost there.
21:53
It's almost like, in my opinion, you're gonna get a little bit of home court advantage for Nebraska as well, because this game is being played out there in Houston.
22:01
You know that with Nebraska winning their first and second ever NCAA tournament games, these guys are certainly gonna be traveling. I think that Nebraska should be able to get the job done there.
22:10
I'm willing to lay the one and a half. Yeah, Oklahoma City was overrun with Nebraska fans, that's for sure, in the, in the, uh, first couple rounds.
22:17
I, I lied, that, that game st- is about 20 minutes after your Purdue Boilermakers, Greg, the team that you had winning it all in your brackets. Uh, they take on Texas. That tip-off's 20, 20 minutes beforehand.
22:29
This is a 211 game in the western region. Boilermakers favored by eight here. And I did lay with Purdue. Like, I'm willing to lay up to eight. I wouldn't wanna go past the eight right now.
22:41
But with this Texas defense, they entered the NCAA tournament 346th in points allowed on a per possession basis away from home. That's improved over the last few games.
22:51
To their credit, they played much better against NC State and Gonzaga, but I think you could see with Gonzaga, w- after the Braden Eppert injury, they just were not the same team.
23:01
Meanwhile, for Purdue, Oscar Cl- Trey Kaufman run, I think that they're gonna be able to hold their own against Mateus Bukiotatis and company.
23:09
I think that Purdue, with that veteran back court, they find a way to get the job done, so I'm willing to lay that one. Willing to lay up to eight. Arkansas-Arizona's the 1-4 game out west. That's Thursday late night.
23:19
Wildcats favored by eight and a half. I had Florida winning it all in my, in my bracket on the mega pod. I had them beating Arizona, so I guess Arizona's my team now. What do you think here?
23:29
Yep, and Arizona, I did set it as a six-and-a-half-point favorite. I do like the points with Arkansas. Like, Acuff has been so incredible for this Arkansas team, 23-plus points, shooting over 42% from three.
23:42
And Arizona, while they don't have bad three-point shooting, they just choose to not shoot a lot of threes. They're a top 40 team in terms of percentage of the field goal attempts that come from three-point range.
23:51
I think that that actually serves them well in this game, because you have an Arkansas team that is outside the top 240 with regards to opponent's two-point shooting percentage, but Arkansas does the little things well.
24:01
Number one in the country in terms of fewest turnovers on a per possession basis. They themselves do a nice job in terms of executing on the inside as well. I think that Arkansas holds in there.
24:09
I'm willing to take the eight and a half. Winner of, uh, Arizona-Arkansas in the west takes on the winner of Texas-Purdue, which we just talked about.
24:16
Back to the south, where the winner of Illinois-Houston is gonna take on the winner of Iowa-Nebraska. This is a two-three game. Maybe the best game on Thursday night, uh, per some. Cougars favored by three
24:29
And how about Houston getting essentially a home game in this one? Yeah. Because this is being played at the Toyota Center. And yet I like Illinois. I took Illinois on the money line.
24:37
I recognize that they do not generate turnovers. They're dead last in the country in that regard, but, and that's one of the strengths of Houston. Houston all season long has been able to win the turnover battle.
24:46
Illinois, they're not concerned about turning you over. They're just not gonna give you good looks whatsoever.
24:51
If you watch that game against VCU, first like 32, 33 minutes, VCU did not attempt a single free throw in that game. Houston outside the top 100 with regards to defensive rebound percentage.
25:02
The Visic brothers, David Mirkovic, I think that they win that battle down low. I actually like Illinois outright on the money line. Okay.
25:10
We'll get to Friday night's games, the four Sweet 16 games on Friday night with Greg. Maybe get a baseball thought from him, and I also wanna ask him about the number one pick in the draft.
25:18
For those like you and me, Kelly- That's right... who don't watch as much college hoops as Greg, you gotta explain some stuff to us. And by stuff I mean Darren Peterson. It's on the other side.
25:26
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game brought to you by ProfitX, free trips worth up to $10,000.
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26:02
Uh, so many of these. Let's see. Oh, uh, Guadalupe Brookhart. That is your real name. It's a very nice name. Guadalupe Brookhart. Mm-hmm. "A long way to go, but feeling good about my position at the top in Survivor.
26:14
Took Gil's advice on being aggressive and it's paying off so far." Wow, he's got one. Uh, he's got a VCU, Kentucky, Texas, Tennessee one. Oh, [laughs] you're in the driver's seat- There you go... Guadalupe. Way to go.
26:26
Let's get it done. I got a bunch of these. Eric Puck on Twitter, "I thought something looked weird unless you changed your name to Jonathan Davis, tennis expert."
26:33
So apparently my tennis picks, uh, landed under Jonathan Davis's name. I have alerted the authorities. Mike Rouse, "FYI, VSiN picks page has the tennis picks under Jonathan Davis, not Gil."
26:43
So does that mean Gil is giving out NHL picks today? [laughs] Yeah, yeah, what do you got for pro, what do you got for player props?
26:48
Oh, I got the Mammoth and the Wild and that guy, the, your guy that you love so much on the Mammoth. Snuggerud. Yeah, Snuggerud, him. Um- What was his first name, Jim? Jimmy. I think Jimmy Snuggerud, right?
26:58
Jim, Jim, Jimmy? What? Jim Snuggerud? I don't know. Robert Sir- Sirajian, "I believe both Tennessee and St.
27:02
John's were favored yesterday," which means Texas is really the only one that is from the outside of, from outside of the top 16. You are correct, Robert. I was just talking about seeds, though, of course.
27:12
Stringfellow Hawk says, "Your tennis play's listed under the name Jonathan Davis on the picks page," as does Dan Groeschel. He says, "When did you change your name to Jonathan Davis?
27:19
I thought it was weird that a hockey expert was dropping some tennis plays. Anyway, I'm in and hooked, uh, Baptista plus money on FanDuel. Let's make some money today, boys."
27:27
Can all of you guys do me a favor and just tweet at Jonathan Davis, "Good job with all the tennis picks"? [laughs] Yeah. By the way, if J- if he loses, if these lose, it's all Jonathan Davis's picks.
27:35
[laughs] And then Meltzer Like Seltzer says, "If you're looking for Gil in October, there's a TLC Salt-N-Pepa in Vogue concert apparently." Um- Ooh. Yeah. KFlow, "Just an FYI, the website is signed Jonathan Davis."
27:45
Okay, there's, thank you J- KFlow. KFlow, it was, w- great meeting you, too, by the way, the other day. Oh, we met- The great KFlow was here... we saw so many people over the past five days. Yes. It was awesome.
27:55
Thanks for stopping by the studio. I just saw people out. It was incredible. Yeah, sorry I bounced Friday on people, 'cause I had a flight I had to get to. Sorry about that.
28:04
And Jared Weiss, re- You w- w- you were on that f- plane before I even left this building, I'm sure. Bro, I got from here to there. You're a sick human being. I am a sick human being. Is it 10:45 you were on that plane?
28:14
Yeah. Jared Weiss, "Reason number 1,000 I love watching B, uh, I love watching, uh, this show every day. You are keeping the legendary Yiddish slang term fa-cafta alive. Thank you." Thank you, Jared Weiss, for noticing.
28:28
Greg Peterson, anything but fa-cafta, joins us once again to talk college hoops.
28:32
Real quick before we get to college hoops, just, uh, your, your thoughts on the Friday night games in the Sweet 16, Greg, courtesy of the Progressive guest line, by the way.
28:39
Um, give us your one, give, give us one big baseball take, 'cause I know you do the baseball podcast as well.
28:46
Absolutely, and that is gonna be up and running for night number one, so that's getting started in the next 48 or so hours, so be on the lookout there.
28:55
I do a little bit of double duty for the last few days of the college basketball season, because by this time, the Sweet 16 games are already handicapped.
29:02
I, as a way that I'll put it, the hay's in the barn when it comes to college basketball. You get the match-ups, you have a good idea of all these teams, so then it gets into baseball hardcore mode.
29:12
But the Chicago White Sox, they looked a little bit better towards the back half of the season last year. They have revamped the bullpen a little bit. I think that they might actually be relatively okay this year.
29:23
I don't know if they're making the playoffs or not, but I mean, it has been a sad, desperate, sorry team the last few years.
29:29
They finally have some, shall we say, younger guys coming up, and I actually think it's a addition by subtraction that they no longer have Luis Robert, because sometimes the stink, it just seeps into a player.
29:42
He just was not doing anything for the Chicago White Sox the last few seasons.
29:46
I think giving other players an opportunity, mixing it up a little bit, I think that that's actually gonna be good for a White Sox team that they've got some nice young pitching, they revamped the bullpen in the off season.
29:56
I think the White Sox might be able to win us some games this year. Okay. So Coast to Coast Hoops never stops. You keep going after college basketball season, and you just add on the baseball podcast.
30:06
The Baseball Betting Show, is it called? Baseball Betting Show. Every day that has had MOB games has had a podcast every day since the start of the 2000 and, I believe, 19 season. [laughs] Oh my God.
30:18
All right, Greg, so, like, on Friday when I'm, like, stumbling around a casino, how many hours of podcasting are you doing on f- on this Friday with college basketball co- uh, for the weekend and baseball?
30:29
Well, the baseball podcast will probably be about 90 or so minutes. We'll probably have an hour long college basketball podcast.
30:36
I'll do a few spots here on VSAN, so it'll be a nice manageable like three, four hours or so. I do the editing myself. I put in the time markers, so it'll be fun. Man, Greg Peterson.
30:48
And last question- Does the editing himself too... incredible. Incredible. Like July 3rd, he's doing both podcasts. Mm-hmm. Yep. Um, Darren Peterson, is this really the number one pick in the draft?
30:58
Should I be skeptical of this? Man, like, I- it's always very interesting because it's gonna be depending upon the NBA Draft Combine, what they see in the medicals. And I think the that's a big thing because
31:12
it feels like Darren Peterson wasn't playing at 100% towards the back half of the season. If I'm a general manager and I have the number one pick, I am not taking Darren Peterson. Yeah.
31:21
Like, I mean, if you take a look at Kansas the last month of the season, it felt like they were worse offensively when Darren Peterson was playing 30-plus minutes than when he was giving those short bursts in these games, like against Oklahoma State, like he was against BYU.
31:36
It honestly felt like that was the best form of Kansas. When he played 30-plus minutes, I mean, sure, he would go on some nice runs from time to time, but he would also take some really bad shots.
31:46
He became like a Carmelo Anthony volume style shooter, only he wasn't quite Carmelo Anthony. So that's not great to say the least. Personally, I'd be looking at AJ Dobbins at number one overall.
31:56
I would take Cameron Boozer over him. I think I would take Acuff over him at this point as well. So I don't think that Darren Peterson should be the number one overall pick.
32:04
I know that there are some NBA GMs that feel a little bit differently, and that's ultimately what it comes down to because it, it matters what you do in college basketball.
32:13
No other fans are butts about it, but we see a lot of guys that they draft based on air, air quotes here, potential, but I would not be taking Peterson number one. Just wanted to get your thoughts. Mm-hmm.
32:22
Had no idea what you were gonna give back to me. That's pretty interesting. All right, let's go to Friday night. The one-five out east, Washington, DC, St. John's and Duke. Can you ask for better than this?
32:32
Duke favored by a touchdown, though, Greg. Yeah, and I think that that's gone a little bit too far. I set my line at five and a half.
32:39
Coming into the tournament, I thought that if these two teams made it here, I'd be setting my line right around five, five and a half.
32:45
I settled on five and a half personally because with Duke, they looked a little bit better in the second half of that game against TCU. But I mean, for the first 30 or so minutes, TCU was right there.
32:55
It felt like things just completely unraveled with that missed goal time call. Jamie Dixon gets teed up, and then from there the wheels completely fall off. But I mean, it's a St. John's defense that is very rock solid.
33:06
Top 15 team in the country in terms of points allowed on a per possession basis.
33:10
For Duke, they're not an awful three-point shooting team, but Duke is not a team that's gonna knock your socks off from three-point range, and St. John's is a strong team down low.
33:18
Dylan Mitchell, Zbi Ojugbele, they've done a nice job protecting the ball even though they don't necessarily have that true point guard. I'll take the seven here with St. John's.
33:25
All right, 25 minutes after that tip off, the four-one game in the Midwest, Alabama and Michigan. Michigan favored by at least 10. We're showing 10 and a half.
33:35
Alabama, 19 made threes yesterday in destruction of Texas Tech. Houston Mallette five of seven from behind the arc. Let's go. What do you got here? Yep, and probably gonna be without Aidan Holloway moving forward.
33:48
If he plays, that's an added bonus for Alabama. I don't think that they're gonna roll the dice there, but you never know with Nate Oats.
33:54
That said, even with that, at 10 and a half, I think this has gone a little bit too lofty. It's a Michigan team that's very much built down low.
34:00
You've got three different guys, Morris Johnson, you have Axel Lundborg, got Amara. Will all give you six and a half plus rebounds per game. But this is an Alabama team that's high variance.
34:09
They actually have a chance to be able to win this game outright with how many threes they take. They have a chance to lose this game by 25 plus as well- [laughs]... with how many threes they take as well.
34:17
So you-- this could be the game where if you're looking at like an alt side, alt total with Alabama and their volatility, that's actually not the world's worst look in my opinion.
34:27
Personally, I think 10 and a half is too high. Felt like this number should be closer to eight, eight and a half.
34:31
I'm gonna be looking at the points with Alabama, but I might look into an alt line myself because if Alabama's in this game, they might be able to win it outright.
34:38
Again, if they lose, they're probably gonna get blowtorched. Tennessee, excuse me, uh, total 174 in that game. Winner of Alabama, Michigan takes on the winner of Tennessee, Iowa State out of the Midwest.
34:49
That's a six-two game in the Midwest region. Iowa State favored by four. Yep, and with Iowa State, if they get anything out of Joshua Jefferson whatsoever, they're not gonna be having him at 100%.
35:01
That looked like a pretty gruesome injury. I'm not hearing great things on that side. I'd be willing to take four with Tennessee. Not a half a point less. I set my line at three and a half.
35:10
But with Tennessee, this is a team that's very stout on glass. Number one team in terms of percentage of the missed shots that result in an offensive rebound.
35:16
And Nate Ament along with Jacobi Gillespie combining for over 33 points per game is big. Now Tennessee have to worry about the ball control issues.
35:24
Iowa State does a great job in terms of generating turnovers, but I think the second and third chances keep Tennessee lively, so won't take four to four and a half with them. And the winner of St.
35:32
John's and Duke out east will take on the winner of Michigan State, Connecticut, the three-two game with UConn favored by one and a half.
35:41
Yep, and this is such an interesting one because I haven't loved what I've seen out of UConn thus far. I set Michigan State as a favorite. Like, I'll probably be pa- bypassing the one to one and a half points.
35:50
I like Michigan State here all right on the money line shooting over 40% from three away from home. What a tournament and what a Sweet 16, right?
35:57
The, the upside again of not having many upsets are these unbelievable match-ups we're getting in the Sweet 16. Greg, thank you so much, man. Enjoy and, uh, good luck with podcast season. Double header.
36:09
Oh, a- absolutely. Always appreciate it. Thank you. Greg Peterson, everybody. Coming back with Wes Reynolds and more on a Numbers Game.
36:23
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37:00
We were saying, uh, all the last couple weeks when we were talking about our, the ProfitX sponsorship here and this King of March contest, you can go anywhere in the world, and we were amazed by that.
37:08
But it's the, what we failed to mention is you hit $10,000, you're entered for a $10,000 trip. So they don't care where you go, it's just a $10,0000 trip. Mm-hmm.
37:16
So if you wanted to go to the Seychelles, let's say- Mm-hmm... you might be able to go for, like, two days, and then you have to come back. It's $10,000. That's a g- that's a good point. Yeah. Okay.
37:25
I could get a lot, I could- Yeah... I could get a lot more bang for my buck- That's correct... if I went to, like, Wisconsin or something like that instead. [laughs] Correct. Think you'd choose Wisconsin?
37:34
Wis- [laughs] Hey, Wisconsin's beautiful- I hear it's lovely this time of year... in the summertime, man. Oh, we got tweets being in the book.
37:38
Steve Gronewold, "What do you think of Michigan State's chances at this point, especially with Jeremy Fears playing so well as he did the last few days? He just set the Spartan record with 16 assists versus Louisville.
37:48
Could you see a Michigan State/Michigan game for the Natty? Go green." Um, I'm not predicting it, but would it be the most shocking thing in the world?
37:56
No, Izzo versus Michigan, I, would not be the most shocking thing in the world. Uh, Dr. Van Nostrand. Fears, Jeremiah Fears, y- older brother. A lo- things Kelly learned over the first, uh- Oh...
38:08
rounds of the NCAA tournament. Okay. I was like, "They gotta be related," and I wasn't expecting the older brother, though. Dr. Van Nostrand, h- "Hi, Gil and Kelly.
38:15
I can't be the only one that when I take an under, I'm constantly staring at the clock and realizing that the refs botch the clock at least 50 times. Ugh." Michael Burns, "Bill Raftery is a treasure. That is all." He is.
38:27
Mm-hmm. Does anybody notice that Grant Hill thing where you- Mm-hmm... he's stolen his inflection? I, I, I will be watching out for it- It's like-... more now... it's like da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da, da.
38:36
Which is how Raftery says almost everything. Yeah. And Grant Hill only talks like that now. Not only when we're supposed to. That's interesting. I'll have to keep, I'll keep an eye on that one.
38:43
Oh, and, uh, one of the trends that we didn't talk about this last segment that has continued, uh, Chris Felica had tweeted this as well, "Gators add to this historical note with their loss to Iowa.
38:53
Only one defending champ since 2007 has advanced past the Sweet 16." Wow. Of course, UConn, right, in the back to back, the, uh, second year, would be the exception to that.
39:05
Thank you to, thank you to, uh, Anthony Ventresca for letting us know about that. Wes Reynolds joins us now, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, to talk some college hoops and some golf.
39:14
Uh, you can follow him on Twitter @WesReynolds1, that's the number one. Wes, good morning, sir. Good morning, Gil. Uh, the, you, so let's start with the golf first. Let's get that out of the way.
39:24
You did not have Matt Fitzpatrick. I did not. Uh, the gentleman next to you did. Congratulations to him. Uh, I've been chasing him, I think we've both been chasing him all spring, and- Yeah...
39:35
and, you know, when, when he lost at the Players, I feel like it's so hard to get back, you know, get back going that y- it, it's like in any other sport.
39:45
When you, when you lose a game that you shoulda won, sometimes you lose that next game, and that's why I didn't go back to him. And, and, and, and it's really been a opposite so far this year.
39:56
Like Jacob Bridgeman, uh, you know, had a bad run at Pebble Beach at the end when he was in contention, and then he wins the very next week at the Genesis.
40:04
And Matt Fitzpatrick, a tournament at the Players that he probably shoulda gotten home, didn't get home, and then he wins the very next week.
40:12
So usually you don't see that happen, but it's becoming more regular than it has in the past. You have not added any Masters bets since the last time we spoke, Wes? You were kind of- No. Yeah. Nah. Not, not yet.
40:25
And, you know, just kinda, a lot of it is timing.
40:27
And I, I think at this point you're getting so close to the event that the numbers are, are kind of gonna be what they are, especially with the top-end players, because these have been up since, like, last fall, last winter in terms of, uh, a, a futures board, and obviously they move based on each week's results.
40:45
So no, I haven't added anything as of yet. I, I did add a small, uh, Fitzpatrick at 35/1 yesterday during the round. I think what Wes just said, though, is a very important point. It wasn't anything I was gonna bet big.
40:58
At th- at this point, these numbers are gonna be pretty close. Uh, it, it honestly might be worse, uh, than what you could get week of the Masters.
41:05
So I think at this point, if you haven't really made any bets, I'd probably sit tight too. Let's go to college basketball, Wes, the madness. Um, did it live up to the hype?
41:13
Well, I think we all kind of said, or at least we did here, uh, it's probably gonna year with, gonna be a year with very few upsets. That's gonna affect your bracket ups, or your upset rewarded brackets.
41:23
It's gonna upset, it's going to affect your survivor pools.
41:26
Um, let's start with a question I asked of Greg earlier I'll ask of you, which is, did anything massively surprise you here in the first weekend of, of the big dance? You know, not, not particularly.
41:38
Uh, uh, I think that we knew that we weren't gonna get that, that low major probably advancing. And, and that's, I think maybe the one thing in this tournament that we lack. We don't have a true Cinderella.
41:50
We have one double-digit seed, and it's Texas for God sakes. Yeah. You know, it's not some, it's not some small school, and that's the one thing we miss. But I think we've had some good games and we've had some upsets.
42:00
Uh, obviously what happened with, uh, with Florida last night.
42:04
But you wanna look at Iowa, and I think Iowa, Iowa is very similar to, uh, my alma mater, Indiana, in Curt Signetti's first year, and they have roster continuity Where, uh, Ben McCollum brought, I believe, six players with him from Drake that were in his program, but that, by the way, won an NCAA tournament game last year, so they weren't total greenhorns being in the NCAA tournament.
42:27
Like, they weren't gonna, I think, buckle under the pressure, weren't gonna have any fear, and they certainly didn't show it last night.
42:33
And, you know, it's the same as Sig had with James Madison when he had, like, 13 players come with him to Indiana.
42:39
So Iowa, I, I mean, I guess you're surprised that they pulled the upset, but not surprised that it was a competitive game.
42:45
And, you know, now Iowa is in the Sweet 16, and they're playing a team that don't, that doesn't out-athlete them. They're playing Nebraska, who split the season series with them.
42:56
Uh, so you know, Iowa absolutely is, I think, very live to at least get to the Elite Eight before maybe they find a team that's gonna out-athlete them. But you know, nothing really, I think, I think shocking here.
43:07
You kind of felt maybe one number one was gonna get got, and it was Florida, who I thought just, that's a tough matchup in the second round to play one of those teams, either Iowa or Clemson, that's just gonna grind you down to a halt and keep that score in the low 70s, and that's what the Hawkeyes did.
43:23
If I went outside the formula, Duke, Arizona, Michigan, uh, and Houston being the four that qualify to win it all now with Florida's absence, and I say to you, "Hey, Wes, guess what?
43:36
One of those four did not win the championship. The team that won it is..." I would say Arkansas, and, and I know they got a test against High Point on Saturday night in the second round.
43:47
Didn't really get away from them until, like, the final two minutes of the game. But the NCAA tournament is always about guards, and I think Arkansas has the best guard in the NCAA tournament with Darius Acuff.
43:58
And, and he's one of the b- they're one of the few teams, Houston, I think, being another with a fr- another freshman, Kingston Fleming's,
44:06
where you have a guard that can take over the game, where you have a guard that can call his own number, like, five straight possessions down the stretch.
44:13
And Arkansas has that with Darius Acuff being a three-level scorer. Can shoot the three, can get to the rim, can get to the line. So that's what I think makes them dangerous.
44:23
Like, he, he, he basically carried them down the stretch, and the other guys just had to defend and rebound. And that makes Arkansas, I think, very dangerous here.
44:31
So I think that, that Arkansas-Arizona game, I thought that that number came out a little bit high.
44:36
Look, Arizona deserves a lot of respect, but I saw even some nine and a half out there, and against a dangerous guard like Acuff, uh, I thought that was too high.
44:45
Before we move on to some of the other games, because I, I do wanna get to all your thoughts on these, but since you bring that up on Acuff, 'cause we were talking earlier about the number one pick in the draft, Darren Peterson, looking non number one pick in the draftee, uh, over the weekend here.
44:59
If for those bettors who are like, "Oh, I don't know Acuff," at these really long numbers, do you really think a, a, a team will pick him one?
45:06
We, we were talking in our text, uh, Kelly and me with Montesano over the weekend. You know, I was bringing up the fact th- p- point guards are tough, right?
45:14
If they're not Iverson or John Wall or Derrick Rose status, right? Then it's like for every Cade Cunningham, there's a Markelle Fultz or a- Mm-hmm... Ben Simmons kind of thing. Mm-hmm.
45:27
Doesn't that alone make teams sort of reticent to go with a point guard like Acuff first? W- well, I, I think it does, and, and, and also the fact of who's gonna get the ping pong balls.
45:37
You know, I'm hoping it, it's my Indiana Pacers, and if the Indiana Pacers get him, well, it's like, are you gonna draft a ball dominant guard when you have a ball dominant guard in Tyrese Haliburton?
45:47
So that kind of makes it like, well, maybe we gotta look elsewhere. Maybe we gotta look at Debonsa, or maybe we gotta look at Cam Boozer or somebody like that that's a different position.
45:57
So I think, I think that all depends. And, you know, size is always gonna matter, even in this pace and space basketball, where you're gonna wanna find a big guy more often than not.
46:08
Uh, unless he is in a, just a pure elite scorer, you're gonna favor, like, the big guys in the wings over the guards with the number one pick.
46:15
And, and just even b- even positional size at the guard position becomes such a big thing in the- Yeah... NBA. Bigger guards needing those.
46:22
And they, uh, the two cr- criticisms I've heard on Acuff for, for, for the NBA level, just the size and then [laughs] I, I t- I saw someone tweet this weekend that they, they had heard from an NBA front office that, uh, Acuff, Acuff could be the worst defender in the NBA next season.
46:37
Well, and the size, I, I'm, I'm... This is obviously an extreme and a ridiculous example. The worst defender.
46:41
But I remember when I was [laughs] I remember when the Bullets drafted Muggsy Bogues, and I remember my buddy Neville, who happens to be Michael Wilbon's best friend, Neville. Yeah.
46:49
I remember him saying, him going, "Muggsy? You imagine when Magic posts him up?" [laughs] Like, you know, and so there's a little bit of that, right, with a, with a smaller sized guard, no matter what.
46:59
Uh, we'll get Wes' thoughts on the Sweet 16, all of his bets besides the one that he just, uh, hinted at right there. It's a numbers game on the other side right here at VSAN, the Sports Betting Network.
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