Search
Login
Sign Up
Mar 24, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | March 24, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | March 24, 2025
00:00
34:48
1×
Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:08
Good Monday morning to you, this is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander and Clay Vitalon, everybody.
0:21
Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. What's happening? How'd your weekend go? It was good. [laughs] Up, up and down, up and down. It was good.
0:30
It was interest- I mean, me betting college basketball he- uh, heavily for four days is always a rollercoaster. Um- Friday was a disaster.
0:37
I just wanna say, you know, the VSiN bracket challenge, you're in like 12th place. 12th. No, no, no way. Yeah. Of everybody? Yeah, and I'm like 23rd despite like an eight-game losing streak at one point.
0:49
Because I think what- Of, of everybody? Or just the VSiN people. No, no, no, just the VSiN people. Okay. Everybody's a different story. Everybody's a different story. By the way, um, maybe we should just start there.
0:58
I didn't plan on starting there, but, uh, the VSiN thing- Shout out... shout out to, uh, Karina Mitchell, uh, our own Karina Mitchell, who's in first place. Sean Green from the Sports Betting Pod, he's in second.
1:08
And, I mean, M- Miles Gwinn behind the scene is third, and Matt Brown is fourth. Jared, Jared Moore, by the way, also in fourth place with Matt Brown. Now, to the, to the main event- The main event...
1:19
of all of our listeners. Yeah. Uh, Omar_Ara, I don't know the, I don't know your full name, but 23, 6 and 1. Remember, this was 20 first-round picks, ATS or total, and then the second round was 10 over two days.
1:36
23, 6 and 1, first place headed into the Sweet 16. So congratulations currently anyway for, uh, Omar, with a couple Brandons in second and third. How about that? All right.
1:47
So VSiN bracket challenge, thanks to everybody who's participated. Man, that is- $3,000 first prize... 23, 6 and 1. That's pretty, pretty good. [laughs] Pretty damn good start. Pretty good.
1:59
Um, by the way, we will, uh, have Carl Sack talking NBA on the show today. Tyler Shoemaker will talk, uh, college hoops with us, both men's and women's.
2:06
And of course, Wes Reynolds, all his thoughts on the first couple rounds of the NCAA tournament and the Sweet 16 moving forward, all the lines.
2:12
Just let's, let's do the administrative stuff first because, uh, we'll do the numbers game administrative stuff. The formula, not much has changed at the top.
2:21
Uh, we had five teams eligible going in, or five teams that qualified for our tried and true formula that has correctly predicted the national champion almost without exception for the last 25, 35 years, depending on the category.
2:35
Um, and it remains, the only, the only sort of, uh, the only sacrifice was Iowa State, which was a late entry into who qualified. Again, last 34 champs, more assists than turnovers, 32 of the last 34.
2:47
With a head coach with prior Sweet 16 experience, 28 of the last 29. Went into the tourname- went into the tournament with at least three wins versus teams in the top 10% of RPI.
2:58
Um, the exception there, the UConn Huskies of 2014. Last 29 champs had a top 75 strength of schedule. And then 21 of the last 22, top 20 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency at KenPom.
3:09
The offensive exception, the 2014 UConn Huskies. The defensive exception, the 2021 Baylor Bears.
3:15
So it's really, and by the way, the coaches exceptions were the, was Kevin Ollie in 2014 with UConn and Danny Hurley in 2023 with UConn.
3:21
So really, besides UConn, there's only but one exception, the 2021 Bears of Baylor in that last category.
3:28
So everything else, it comes from this bucket of teams, and going into the tournament, the only sacrifice now of the five we had, Auburn, Duke, and Houston qualified every week that we looked at this since I got back from vacation after the Super Bowl.
3:41
Um, so we had four weeks of this leading into the tournament. The only, and then Tennessee and Iowa State joined right before the tournament.
3:50
Iowa State with Keyshawn Gilbert out was never really a, a true, uh, contender, I guess, with the injury, 'cause obviously that changes their makeup. They're gone.
3:59
But the other four remain, Auburn, Duke, Houston, and, um, Tennessee heading into the Sweet 16.
4:05
And the only fly in the ointment remains Florida, whose only disqualifier is that Todd Golden has not coached in a Sweet 16 prior to this year, and oh boy, did that get dicey with Florida staving off Dan Hurley and UConn.
4:18
Fun game. Which we were really close to coming back to the comment I made last week, which is, are any of us not ta- none of us are gonna talk about a three-peat possibility here?
4:29
Like, this has not happened since 1973 when UCLA was buil- busy polishing off their seventh straight.
4:36
And, uh, we got close to having to come in here this morning and being like, "Oh, we all missed the plot of this whole thing." But not to be. Florida's still in there.
4:43
And by the way, when that happens, when a close call happens, just sort of anecdotally I think about NC State in '83 being a great example of this, but there's so many through the years.
4:52
When you have a close call, you know, so many of these eventual champions have that, and NC State I, I believe, had a double overtime game on their way to the title, Jim Valvano's title in 1983, and there have been so many of those since.
5:04
So maybe that's, uh, maybe that's just the challenge that Florida needed pressed by UConn. By the way, Dan Hurley couldn't have, uh, couldn't have handled that better after the game.
5:12
[laughs] And by couldn't have handled it better, I mean couldn't have handled it worse.
5:16
Just, uh, you know, screaming at the Baylor players who were walking on the court after his game, "I hope the refs don't screw you, too." Yeah, not really, buddy. Oh, man.
5:24
Uh, so Duke remains, so really no, no change in the formula. Duke remains the short shot, plus 230 in the betting market to win it all. Florida is the fly in the ointment.
5:32
They're three to one, and then it's Auburn and Houston, both at five to one, followed by Tennessee at 17 to one.
5:38
And the only future I have in all of this, Alabama [laughs] at 18 to one, who's the, uh, sixth short shot here of the remaining Sweet 16. That is literally the exact number I got them at after last season.
5:50
So nothing has happened. It is feeling very, the, way, way too early reactions based off of two rounds, uh, Gil Alexander. Duke and Florida looking really, really dang good. I, I... That was...
6:02
I thought it was a bad first half by them the other day against UConn. UConn played really well. Well, I thought UConn left a lot of points on the board. Yeah.
6:09
They had a lot of open looks on threes early that they clanged off the rim, and then they had a lot of chances to sort of extend the lead late in the first half, and they blew that- Right, yes... as well. Yeah.
6:21
Man, man, watching this Florida team, it is just, man, they've got talent everywhere seemingly. Oh, yeah. It's ridiculous. But I just want to say this about the tournament.
6:28
This, I don't know if we're the only ones who would say this, I assume not, but it does feel like... And, and by the way, let me just preface it by saying March Madness is great no matter what. Right?
6:38
The big d- Everything I'm about to say does not diminish how awesome it is with survivor, with brackets, with, uh, you know, contests, with your bets, with everything like that. It's still the most fun event there is.
6:49
It's the mo- It's, it's the greatest sporting event there is. It's awesome. However- However, say it, Gil, so I don't have to be the guy. Good... However, I just want to say this.
6:58
We are, if not already in it, we could be entering an era where this gets less upsetty as the years go on, and a lot of that has to do with the transfer portal where these mid-majors get poached.
7:12
Like, if you're good, "Hey, come over here. We'll give you more money." Um, and so what we ended up having was teams seeded 13 through 16 went 0 and 16 in the first round. Yeah. 0 and 16. That's not good, by the way.
7:26
Their average margin of defeat, a whopping 22.6 points- Phew... per game. That's seeds 13 through 16 in the first two rounds. We also had this streak going, um, that
7:39
a team in dou- a double-digit seed ended up in the Sweet 16 every year since 2008. We barely survived that. We barely survived that with Arkansas as a 10 seed getting to the Sweet 16.
7:53
Uh, the other sort of, and this is not a macro thing, this is more maybe a micro thing, we also had in the first two days of the tournament, the first round, we had an, a, a near historic,
8:05
um, absolute anemic effort from behind the arc collectively by all teams. I'm not just talking about tournament history. I'm talking about NCAA basketball history since the year 2008.
8:17
That was, um, one of the top, let me, let me get this exactly right, I think the sixth worst performance from behind the arc by all teams collectively in the first round of the, uh, NCAA tournament. What does that mean?
8:31
Usually what creates an upset is, is one of two things. You either slow the game down so much that there are fewer possessions and you can beat a better team that way, or you have positive variance from behind the arc.
8:40
That wasn't happening in the first round either.
8:43
So, oh, and then the other big thing we talked about was, uh, the KenPom thing with Joe Peter brought up, which is 0 and 39 headed into this tournament, um, if you were not, now this is different from what I was talking about, but 0 and 39 headed into this tournament if you were not in the AP preseason top 25 and you were a one or two seed, you've never gotten past your seeding.
9:05
So in other words, if you're a two seed, you've never gotten past the Elite Eight. If you're a one seed, you've never gotten past the Final Four.
9:12
Well, we had two teams that that applied to heading into this tournament, St. John's and Michigan State. St. John's, see ya.
9:19
So now we're 0 and 40 with that KenPom trend with only Michigan, by the way, he was the one who uncovered it, uh, with only Michigan State sort of still alive to buck that.
9:31
And if you say to yourself, "Well, why does that matter? What is the sense behind that?"
9:35
It's the Ed Fang thing where it's like, well, listen, uh, we don't pay attention as bettors much of the AP top 25 poll, but in essence, there is some wisdom in it because the college basketball season really isn't that massive of a sample size.
9:47
We tend to think it is because we live through 30 games, and it's a few months of our live, of, of our lives, but it really, it really might not be sometimes, like, overwhelmingly, um, sort of dismissive of what the initial thought was heading into a season.
10:03
And so Michigan State trying to buck the 0 for 40 trend on that. But generally speaking, I mean, we have four number ones. Kelly, here's your Sweet 16. Four number ones, three number twos, St.
10:14
John's being the, uh, sacrifice there when they lose to Arkansas. Arkansas the only double-digit seed to make the Sweet 16. Two number threes, Wisconsin and Iowa State.
10:23
Again, with Keshawn Gilbert out, Wisconsin and Iowa State bounce to the threes. Three fours, only A&M out. They lose to Michigan. So what's left?
10:31
That's 12 of the 16 right there are top four seeds, including the four number ones. The only four seeds that are in the Sweet 16 that are not top four seeds are
10:41
one five, Michigan, two sixes, BYU and Mississippi, coached by Chris Beard, and then Arkansas, the only double-digit seed at 10. And Arkansas is an SEC team who, again, record seven SEC teams- Phew...
10:55
make the round of 16. ACC had the previous record of six back in the day. I think it was 2016 when the ACC had, uh, had, uh, six. Yeah, six in the s- in the, uh, Sweet 16.
11:06
So the SEC ends up with Bama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee, but also, uh, four from both the Big 12 and the Big 10, ACC with only Duke.
11:17
Only four conferences represented, so that's obviously, as conferences, you know, change through the years and, uh, meld together, that's obviously gonna be something moving forward.
11:26
So those are all the sort of macro things of the tournament, and it's fascinating that it's still at the top. Chalk like Chalkerson. Nothing has really changed. Yeah.
11:36
And like you were saying, man, it's gonna be interesting to see over the next few years, has this, uh, has this become a thing?
11:41
I think that streak of double-digit seeds always making the Sweet 16, I think that's gonna get snapped one of these years. We'll come back. What did announcers say stupidly? That and more next.
11:58
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Edge Boost is the first ever bank account built for bettors, ensuring all gambling transactions are approved. No usage fees, no minimums.
12:08
Earn cashback rewards, 100% approval for all betting deposits. Sign up today at edgeboost.bet with promo code ANG. ANG is an A numbers game. Caught you off guard, didn't I? Mm-hmm.
12:18
Deposit $25, and Edge Boost will match the deposit. That's edgeboost.bet. Check it out. We get tweets at Beating The Book, always appreciate the feedback.
12:27
Brad Billups, "How about the second round, second half over trend, 70-ish percent winner?" Did you know about this, second half over, second round? It's not one that I'm locking into. No.
12:37
But I mean, like, almost like, I mean, NCAA tournament, you, you could tell me that's a trend in any round, I'd believe it just because- Yeah... of free throw shooting at the end. That's right.
12:45
Kevin Ryan, "Gil, Cinderella is dead in my humble opinion due to NIL money. As you said, the best players from the lesser schools are entering the portal for a payday.
12:53
The Loyola of Chicago days of making it deep into the tournament are over. Chalk it up." I think it's going that way. I do. C- one comment real quick on this. Yeah. I don't...
13:02
College basketball might've screwed a lot of this up after college sports in general, but still f- foundationally the, the fact that we go, go back to the players actually making a little bit of money putting on this incredible entertainment product, that still matters me- to me more than the rest.
13:19
I'm still happy that these kids are getting paid. It's not really their fault that then college basketball with transfer portal and everything else has kinda let this get out of control.
13:29
Agreed, but agreed, foundationally, I like your word, but they need some kind of regulation to it. I agree. I mean, it has spiraled very- Yes... e- yeah, it has spiraled very quickly. It's a whole different conversation.
13:42
Yeah. Hoops by Hoots, "Wee, wee." Just talking about the pig. [laughs] It's just the w- Who s- who said that?
13:48
Why did GEICO decide after 15 years it was okay to put this, "Could switching to GEICO really save you 15% or more on car insurance?" Who decided we wanted to bring that back? I don't know.
13:58
Who tw- so remember someone tweeted it at us last week? How did they know that it w- ahead of time that it was coming back? [laughs] They- That's all I kept thinking of... they worked for GEICO, I don't know.
14:06
Fake Follower, "I have Florida plus 950, Auburn plus 340, Duke plus 370, and Houston plus 750 based on your March 3rd formula that I booked that day. What could possibly go wrong? Thank you."
14:18
You're welcome, Fake Follower. What could possibly go wrong? And ba- he did it based on the March 3rd formula. I like it. He also adds, "We're here in New York. Uh, we here in New York are happy that St.
14:27
John's is out of it. If they would've continued to the Sweet 16 or Final Four or Elite Eight in between, we in New York would be left out because you can't bet New York teams here."
14:35
New York Mess 16, "Scott, you wanna talk about pushing unlikable pitchmen? How about Blake Griffin? I've seen him in, like, three commercials and no ability or personality." I kinda liked him.
14:44
JT Speed to Burn, "The GEICO commercial was so annoying I'm having a pig roast Saturday." [laughs] Brandon Webb, "They just don't make 'em like the Bud Light of office swear jar commercial anymore. All-time favorite."
14:55
Oh, man. String Fellow Hawk, our buddy, says, "My 10-year-old daughter loves the old GEICO commercial." King of Car Seats, "Marriott band commercial completely snubbed in your list, Gil.
15:04
Have watched 14 minutes of basketball, but 69 marching band commercials." Tronsky, "Brackets are great and the Crab Five are fun to talk about, but games don't resume until Thursday. We have tennis today.
15:14
Miami's heating up. Your thoughts on Ayala's Keys upset, Fonseca, um, against, uh, de Minaur, Fritz-Chapeau, Feels, uh, Feast-Tiafoe. Some great match-ups today." As a matter of fact, I do have tennis plays.
15:24
Can we get my tennis plays right now? Uh, do we have a graphic for that? My tennis plays are on our tour Feast, by the way, against Frances Tiafoe. Um, they're all on the men's side.
15:33
Uh, I am also on Fonseca as well, uh, Joao Fonseca against Alex de Minaur. I got him as a plus money favorite again, V- uh, plus money dog here. He's now minus money. I don't know that it's as good of a play right now.
15:48
Feast you might be able to get actually at a better price than I got him at last night versus Tiafoe. And the other one is I'm on Zizou Bergs as a big dog plus 169 versus Matteo Berrettini.
15:57
The big thing we have coming up in 27 minutes though is Naomi Osaka's in action. We are two matches away from hitting the quarter at seven to one and four away perhaps from the 60. Let's go. Six to one. Let's go, Osaka.
16:09
She's, she's a favorite today. Carl Sack joins us to talk some NBA with us, an NBA break, if you will, during March Madness, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @killercappers.
16:18
How you doing, Carl? Gil, how are you? I'm good. Do you watch any March Madness, anythings? So, um, I do watch a little bit of it.
16:25
I, I will say that, um, I think that that GEICO commercial, the first time I saw it I actually thought it was fairly entertaining.
16:32
O- once you see it about 18 times, it gets a little bit more annoying, but, um, I thought it was kinda clever. Okay. All right. We'll take it clever. And, and I'll mention something too.
16:41
You guys were talking about the, um, NCAA tournament round two overs. I was just looking into this because, um, I have, our, our, the database at Killer Sports has the last 12 years of NCAA tournament games.
16:56
Um, and over the course of about 1,600, well, I guess it's 800 games, the under has actually been profitable 52 and a half percent. But if you just look at round two specifically, the over has hit 53%.
17:14
So there, there might be something to that round two over trend that we've, that somebody noted. He was talking about round two second halves also. I, I think Kelly's point is probably- Oh...
17:22
the obvious one, which is, well, in those games we actually do revert a little bit back to old school college basketball.
17:29
By old school I mean more than two years ago, which is, hey, you actually foul for two minutes at the end- Right... of the game to try desperately to win a game, the old Jim Valvano thing, uh, back in the day in '83.
17:39
But yeah, I mean, so it makes sense that way because it is your season. But we did see a couple give-ups, uh, in the tournament. Was it Memphis was really weird at the end of their game- Mm-hmm...
17:47
where they're just, that was a first round game, but they're just like, "Yeah, whatever, guess we lost." It's like, what are you doing? [laughs] What, are we trying to win? What's happening here?
17:54
Um, NBA, Kelly mentioned over, uh, during the break, he's looking at the Suns tonight. We have about eight games in, I think exactly eight games in the NBA tonight.
18:04
Your words of, of caution about the Suns were what generally? Oh, well, f- I mean, they've been terrible all season long against the spread. They have been playing well the last few games.
18:14
Um, but I think they are, I wanna say now 9 and 24 against the spread when coming off of a win. Um, and they are off, I think, I wanna say it's, like, three straight wins or something like that.
18:28
And as far as that game goes, too, I think, I think Lillard's being overvalued in the marketplace. I, I think they're gonna be okay without him. Um, and so...
18:39
'Cause, I mean, he's a fantastic offensive player, but not the best defensive player. So I, I, I would lean actually towards maybe taking the points here with Milwaukee.
18:48
Taking the bu- Bucks are two and a half point favorites, uh, on the road at Phoenix.
18:53
Um, this time of year when you have teams in, uh, for lack of a better term, tank mode, does that alone take you off games that you might otherwise play, generally speaking?
19:04
Oh, I, I mean, that's huge in the NBA, you know? No, I know, but I'm saying b- b- do your numbers... I, I... No, no show knows that better than we do here, as we made a sort of cottage industry of Tankapalooza.
19:15
But I'm saying from a, what you do from an ATS perspective, does, is that built into what you're doing? Does it cause you, or does it make you pause before playing? How does that manifest? I mean, uh,
19:30
I definitely look at the, the situational stuff and, and it would be rare that I would play on a team that I deem to be tanking. That being said, you've got a game tonight like, um, what is it?
19:42
New Orleans versus Philadelphia, right? They're both tanking. So, um, there's, there's potentially some opportunities with those teams.
19:52
But I would say it's pretty darn rare that I back a team that is tanking versus a team that has motivation. Okay, but what about a tank versus tank?
20:01
You stay away, or you, you think there is opportunity in something like that? 'Cause that to me for the, for the casual, you'd be like, "I don't want any part of that game." Um, you know, it depends.
20:11
I think from a side perspective it's, it comes down to predicting who's gonna play and who's not gonna play. And in the morning, like right now, there's no...
20:19
Both those teams played yesterday, so there's no injury report formally.
20:23
You might have caught something, um, with the coach's, you know, post-game interview saying, "Hey, so and so might play tomorrow or might rest," or there might be some trends that you've seen where certain players don't play on the second half of back to backs, and you can kinda get ahead of a number in that regard.
20:40
Um, I think from a totals perspective in these types of games, for me it's typically over, play the over or pass. There's, there's- Yeah... not a lot of defense that's played. That makes sense.
20:52
All right, what did you land on, or what are you looking at closely today? So I think the best thing on the board right now is, uh, Chicago Bulls plus three against my Denver Nuggets.
21:04
Um, the Bulls are playing really surprisingly well. I've been betting against them lately, but they just keep winning, uh, and covering.
21:13
They're, I think, seven and two straight up in their last nine, um, 8-0-1 against the spread in their last nine. They're coming off that 30-point win at LA when LA was healthy.
21:26
Um, they're just playing really well surprisingly. And, and the Nuggets, uh, they played last night. Um, Malone said Joker was doubtful to play tonight. I think he's the most impactful player in the NBA. Um,
21:41
and they're coming off of a really hard-fought win at Houston, which to me is kind of a letdown spot. They, they played heavy minutes. I wouldn't be surprised if Murray or Gordon sits tonight. Um, and, uh, Denver,
21:58
um, they're coming... They're also off of a four-game road trip, and that, that first game home, uh, for teams off a long road trip tends to be a little bit of a flat spot.
22:07
So I, I laid the, or I took the points with Chicago tonight. The, uh, the Bulls, who don't know how to tank properly, and, uh, Josh Giddey's taking over, man. He's taking over, Carl.
22:16
[laughs] Yeah, and I think he's gonna play tonight. So, um, yeah, I just, I, I've been really surprised at how well they've been playing. Thunder on a six-game winning streak.
22:26
If they win their last 11 to close out with a 17-game winning streak, and I know that's a big if, winning their last 11, but if they do, they will have the third-best record in the history of the NBA, 82 games scheduled, or percentage-wise, period, in the history of the NBA.
22:41
That doesn't get mentioned enough, I don't think. Carl, appreciate it. Thank you, sir. Carl Sack. The most annoying announcers and Tyler Shoemaker next. The numbers told the story. They always do.
22:59
He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of another of, a numbers game at VSiN, eSports betting network. What was I about to say right there?
23:10
VSiN.com game plus- A- another game. [laughs] iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Midland. What's happening, party people? How you doing?
23:21
Hope your brackets are good. Hope you're still in Survivor. Uh, hope any contests you're in are going well. Hope you made money betting. It's the greatest event on earth. It's gonna be different moving forward.
23:31
As we said, we started the show by saying, "I think it's gonna be different," right?
23:34
The, the transfer portal has made this different, and I'm not so sure that streak of double digits getting to the Sweet 16, which has barely continued with Arkansas getting into the Sweet 16, uh, since 2008.
23:45
I'm not sure that's not getting snapped some year soon here, where it's just gonna be all single digits.
23:50
And again, all four top seeds, all those predictions of one, one, one, one getting to the, uh, Final Four may yet prevail here, uh, in this tournament. Wes Reynolds standing by.
23:59
And matter of fact, let's bring Wes in for our, uh, numbers game tradition here. Um, Wes, good morning to you, sir. How are you? Good morning, Gil. I'm well. How are you, sir? I'm doing very well.
24:09
Before we get into, uh, your com- Well, first of all, let me, let me just say that that part that I just mentioned, do you feel that that is, uh, the driving...
24:16
Do, do you feel that the transfer portal has changed this forever moving forward?
24:22
In p- in part, yes, because I think if you look even, even at the top teams going into this tournament and still left in this tournament, go down every roster and see where these players started.
24:34
And, like, you'll see Walter Clayton at Florida, he started at Iona. Jai Broome at Auburn, he started at Morehead State.
24:42
So all of these guys that don't get recruited by the high major programs end up there because of the portal, and, and they get developed at these middle to lower major programs.
24:54
And they wanna play on a bigger stage, that's only natural, and then now you've got the money involved. So of course they're gonna go to these bigger programs.
25:01
And, you know, it's just very rare to see kind of a team of, a team of seniors, uh, stay together for multiple years.
25:10
You kind of had that a little bit at McNeese State, even though a lot of those kids transferred in from other programs.
25:15
But McNeese kind of ran it as far as they could, which is to win a game and then go to the second round and bow out. So I think that's what you're gonna see.
25:24
And then the fact that you have this conference consolidation now. I believe this is the, the, the lowest amount of conferences that we have had in, in, in well over 20 years. You've got pretty much the- Four...
25:37
yeah, four now. That's it. Four now. SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and then the lone Duke in, in the ACC.
25:44
So, you know, you don't have the Missouri Valley, you don't have the Ohio Valley, you don't have the West Coast Conference or the Mountain West or add in any conference you want, and that's just the way it is because, because football runs television, and that's why you have these super conferences.
25:59
That's why it kind of, you know, gave me a gripe when everybody would talk about, "Oh, they didn't play this schedule." It's like you guys at ESPN and Fox and CBS and all the major networks, you wanted this.
26:12
You started this 'cause you offer all this money, so now you get 20 teams in a conference, so of course they're not gonna play a balanced schedule. Yeah.
26:19
And, and, you know, I harken back to 1985, you remember it well, Wes, um, where three Big East teams got to the Final Four, right? Georgetown beat a Chris Mullen, Walter Berry, Mark Jackson, St. John's team in one semi.
26:34
And then, uh, Villanova beat Memphis, I believe it was, in the other. Yeah. So you had Villanova and Georgetown. True. Keith, Keith Lee being the star of Memphis in those days.
26:43
And there was Villa- and then obviously Villanova-Georgetown, one of the biggest upsets ever where Villanova shot 79% from the field and lo- and won by two against Georgetown in just a, one of the more amazing nights in college basketball history.
26:55
But if you get three teams from the same conference now to the Final Four, it ain't quite the same, is it? It's not.
27:02
And, and look, there's a possibility that you can have that when you have seven, I think seven of 16- Yeah... in the SEC.
27:09
But it could be OG SEC, like an Auburn or a Tennessee, and then throw in, uh, uh, uh, uh, these other schools like Arkansas.
27:18
Now they've been in the SEC a long time, but they were in the Southwest Conference in, in, in the, in the 1980s. So you're getting them all spread out. It, it just doesn't seem the same.
27:28
It doesn't seem like, you know, Arizona is a true Big 12 team or, uh, or if Oregon would advance, that they're a true Big Ten team.
27:36
I was just marveling last night, because that was the last game on the air by the way, Oregon and Arizona, and, uh, unfortunately the big redhead Bill Walton is no longer with us, so he couldn't say the fate of Western civilization is in the balance here- Yes...
27:48
between Ore- Oregon and Arizona. But, you know, that's Pac-12 after dark. It was gonna be Pac-12 Daybreak with all the reviews that we had at the end of that game.
27:57
But, uh, uh, nevertheless, the, uh, Big 12 has an extra team with Arizona. What, uh, as we go, by the way, Oregon was my last survivor play.
28:04
And, uh, at 19 to 4 I felt like I was a genius, and then Arizona just dominated them after that. The fact that it even got close at the end was kind of shocking, 'cause I thought Arizona was just...
28:15
They, they, they just got to the boards with so much more energy than Oregon did.
28:19
There were so many balls that were a- you know, were available to be rebounded by both teams and, and it looked like for a big spell of that game Oregon had no interest in it.
28:28
So Arizona gets there again with a 17-year college basketball player, Caleb Love, uh, as their star. Uh, as you look at the...
28:35
Before we get to who you, if you were making a bet right now to win it all, who would you make? Before we get to that, what Sweet 16 games did you immediately say to yourself, "That's a bet"?
28:46
None yet, because I think the, the, the numbers are, are really tight. I'm gonna be, uh, looking at, looking at those, uh, this afternoon and, uh, you know, seeing. Because now we at least have time.
28:56
Because when these are all, you know, four days in a row you, you don't have a lot of time really, really to look at it. You kind of go with your first instinct immediately.
29:06
And, uh, you don't wanna have recency bias on the basis of, of what you just saw and then, you know, if there's an injury that popped up.
29:13
But I think, I think when I did look initially, it's hard to say, but Duke against Arizona. D- Duke still looks like the best team in this tournament. Mm-hmm. I know Mount St.
29:24
Mary's and Baylor, that's not a murderer's row even though Baylor's a solid team. But Duke to me, I, I think still, they didn't really show a chink in the armor.
29:33
If you look at the, the three, uh, other number one seeds, if you look at, at Auburn, eh, they were a little shaky in the first round, uh, against Alabama State.
29:42
A little sloppy and then they got down to Creighton at the half. Creighton I think hit nine threes in the first half. So you saw a little bit there with Auburn.
29:50
You saw Florida I thought really got taken out of their offense yesterday, and credit to UConn. They really defended well and, and slowed the game down.
29:59
And then Houston got out to a lead against Gonzaga, and Gonzaga came firing back, uh, that late game on Saturday, and Houston was just kind of able to hang on. But meanwhile, Duke, Duke has been rolling.
30:10
So you're probably gonna see some movement with that Duke game. I think it's nine. I wouldn't be shocked if it got to 10 by Thursday night. Yeah. What was that BYU total? 170 something?
30:21
That, I mean, that, that's expected that it would be that high. BYU, Bama. Uh, what was it guys? 172 is that in that game? Yeah. It's now 175 and a half- Wow. Wow... that I, that I, that I am seeing.
30:32
Like we're seeing- Yeah... movement on that like we've seen in like NIT and CBI totals. Uh, like if, if you're still betting those games, there's, there's opportunities there.
30:41
And oh, by the way, and we've seen it in the NCAA tournament, if you like overs, bet 'em early. And I know this is kind of an old school credo, overs early, unders late.
30:50
But it's absolutely worked out that way 'cause you have seen three or four totals all the way by al- already in this NCAA tournament where these have middled.
30:58
You know, where if you're getting the early number, you're cashing the ticket. If you're betting the late steam, you're losing. The- Man, there's a eight and a half out there on that Duke l- uh, Duke game too, Wes.
31:08
Look, it looks like this is coming down. This is a little weird. Yeah, I'm seeing, I'm seeing mostly nine, but, uh, I, I do think Duke...
31:17
I, I think that they o- that they overwhelm Arizona a little bit just with all posit- all, at all positions and the fact that you've got the number one pick in the draft and the guy that's gonna win the College Player of the Year as a freshman.
31:29
He did not look injured at all. We were kind of worried a little bit about his health coming into the tournament. He looked just fine, that being Cooper Flagg.
31:37
Yeah, I, I just think the UConn thing deserves one more mention, which is, 'cause, 'cause obviously we mentioned them earlier too, but it just... We do shows here, obviously five days a week.
31:46
In the morning after sporting events, we, you know, there's always a, a narrative. If UConn wins that game against Florida, not only does the formula, does the formula look clear, right?
31:56
In terms of who's, you know, what bucket of team's the champions coming from as Florida's the only fly in the ointment. But from a UConn perspective, our entire, right, sports media's entire- Mm-hmm...
32:06
narrative today is, "Oh, well, maybe we should be talking about this three-peat possibility that hasn't happened since UCLA won their seventh in a row in 1973."
32:16
And from a betting perspective, Wes, we would probably go into this mode of, "Well, you can't get in front of UConn now. You can't bet against them in any game," right? No matter who they played at that point.
32:28
Probably true. Yeah, no, no question about it. And, and, and it would probably change the narrative a little bit too because the tournament, I think, has been predictable, and that's what you're gonna hear- Mm-hmm...
32:40
across a bunch of platforms today. Even though UConn not exactly like the sleeper, the Cinderella, because they've won two in a row. Now they, they were an eight seed.
32:49
But yeah, you've seen a lot of predictability here, and we mentioned it early, earlier in the segment that you just haven't seen a lot of those upsets. The 10 seed that you mentioned, Gil, is Arkansas, who has, what?
33:00
Four or five five-star McDonald's- [laughs] That's right... All-Americans players.
33:03
Uh, you know, that's why it wasn't shocking even though that was an upset point spread wise, but it's like Arkansas's got a hell of a lot of talent. You know, th- this isn't, uh, this isn't, you know, mid-majordom.
33:13
This isn't St. Peter's from a few years ago going to the Elite Eight as a 15 seed. So yeah, those are gonna be fewer and far between, so I think it would've changed that narrative for certain.
33:23
But, but I think we got good match-ups at least in the Sweet 16, because that's what the networks want. They want maybe that one Cinderella so they can tell that story, and then they want that Cinderella to die.
33:34
[laughs] They want that Cinderella out. They do not want a St. Peter's in the Elite Eight. They do not want Loyola Chicago in the Final Four.
33:41
They absolutely do not want that, and they're not gonna get it based on this slate of teams this year.
33:46
Yeah, that's the flip side of, of, you know, being chalky is that now you have in the Sweet 16 really almost as great a match-ups as you could possibly want, right, across the board with a rare exception.
33:57
So that's, that's the flip side of this. Your Final Four is still intact, right, Wes? It is, uh, that being Auburn, uh, Texas Tech, Duke, and Tennessee. Okay.
34:07
He's got a couple outliers in there, Texas Tech and Tennessee, uh, all intact. Um, Texas Tech is gonna be a very popular survivor play. So there's again, survivor strategy with folks.
34:17
If you're behind, the, the move to make, the optimal strategy move would be to take Arkansas, the, the seed that, the 10 seed that gets you points, while everybody else would get knocked out with Texas Tech.
34:30
But now do you have the cojones to do that in practice is another story. More- More with Wes on the other side. Um, more college basketball with him, and we will finally get to that numbers game tradition.
34:40
Amusing announcer remarks throughout the tourney. That's next. Numbers game. VSiN, the sports betting network.
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
