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Mar 24, 2026
Best Of A Numbers Game | March 24, 2026
Best Of A Numbers Game | March 24, 2026
00:00
44:36
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Transcript
0:00
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0:21
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
0:27
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
0:37
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you could trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
0:44
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0:54
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1:23
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Brackets are for everyone. This is for betters. The VSiN March Betting Challenge still going. It's not too late to get in on the action.
1:40
We're down to the Sweet 16 in this round. You have to make five picks, spreads, or totals. Still plenty of prizes still on the line, including one for the highest score from the Sweet 16 onward.
1:48
And if you have a free Edge Boost account, every prize doubles. Head to vsin.com/contest and get your picks in now.
1:57
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, uh, always appreciate everyone, uh, hanging out with us each and every morning. We, uh, we have some listener questions for our next guest.
2:05
Jake Hahn joins us now to talk some NHL, but also other sports as well, 'cause he's betting other things. That's right. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter at jhahn4. That's J-H-A-H-N and the number 4.
2:15
Of course, co-host on The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show, those at SiriusXM NHL. Co-host of NHL Fantasy on Ice podcast as well, and NHL Fantasy. Joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
2:26
Jake, what's happening? Oh, not too much, guys. Happy to be here. Still a great time in the sports calendar. Like you said, it's the... More than just hockey for me right now.
2:35
Was enjoying some March Madness over the weekend. Been into the Miami tennis. I know you would certainly be dialed into that as well, Gil, and, uh, getting ready for some more games on Thursday for March Madness.
2:44
But 15 games in the NHL tonight, so tonight's gonna be very much owned by the National Hockey League. I'm looking forward to that. Looking forward to that. Uh, how did you do at Valspar, by the way? You bet that?
2:54
Not, not as well as I did at the Players, guys. I couldn't go back-to-back after the, the Cam Young call, unfortunately. But when you hit a winner, you kinda, you know, you feel a little free and easy the next week.
3:03
Right. It's sorta like, okay, I'd love to hit another one. Of course I would. Uh, but if you, if things don't go your way, it's, it's a little bit easier to take. Uh, Brooks Koepka just kind of lurked for me all week.
3:13
He was right there. I couldn't get the driver going at all. He's really struggled to hit fairways.
3:17
Iron play was great though, which I, I guess if you're trying to make a case for Brooks at the Masters, which I don't know if I'm gonna be in on betting him for the Masters, guys, but it is a second shot golf course, and if his approach play is like that, and maybe you can make the case.
3:30
But he's gonna have to figure out the driver. Uh, funny enough, this week's kind of sets up perfect for Brooksy at the Houston Open, a, a course where you can just let it rip, wide open fairways.
3:39
Uh, if that's how he's gonna be driving the ball, maybe he is actually live this week at Houston. Yeah.
3:43
Also, a- another important note with that is, uh, uh, Brooks helping with the redesign of this course too, so yeah, I, I would think at least a bit of an advantage there, Gil. [laughs] You know? Put that there. Yeah.
3:53
Get rid of that trap. Put that hole there. I've had problems with that. That's right. Get rid of that. Get rid of that tree. It's annoying. [laughs] That kind of thing. All right.
4:00
We have a listener question about the NHL before we get to your pictures. You have sides and you have a angle on something else. Uh, this is from Icegoon, who says, "Two questions for Jake."
4:07
Let's take the first one, uh, first. He goes, "How does an alleged NHL team only get nine shots on goal in a game?" That's crazy. He's referring to the Rangers, who only mustered nine shots on goal. Was that last night?
4:21
That was last night. There was only one game, so l- everybody in the hockey world was watching this game, unfortunately for the Rangers.
4:26
There was no other games to distract them, and they're facing an Ottawa Senators team that is p- probably the best shot suppression team in the NHL right now, maybe outside of the Carolina Hurricanes.
4:35
So to be honest, guys, I, you know, you know I watch a lot of hockey. I think there was a lot of people maybe watching the Sens for the first time in a while last night.
4:43
This is what they do to teams, and especially teams like... I mean, the Rangers stink. We've kind of known that for a while. But the Sens do this to good teams sometimes as well.
4:50
They just suppress shots with the best of them.
4:52
Now, unfortunately for Ottawa, they're down their best defenseman already in Jake Sanderson, uh, a guy that, you know, was, uh, playing at the, in the US for the Olympic team. Really, really good defenseman.
5:02
And they lost Thomas Chabot last night. Took a nasty cross check at the end of the first period. He'd be their next best defenseman. He left the game, and it sounds like he's gonna be out for some time.
5:10
So the Sens', uh, depth chart getting depleted on the back end, guys, but that, that's my reasoning. They're just really good defensively. They have been for a v- a long time.
5:18
One of my favorite plays on the card last night was James Reimer under 20 and a half saves for the Senators. That one, uh, that one cashed quite easily because the Rangers couldn't muster much of anything.
5:28
I'm looking up the, the fewest amount of shots in an NHL game by a team. You have any idea what it might be? Five. Zero, according to what I'm looking at at StatMuse.
5:37
The New York Rangers took zero versus the Red Wings on October 12th, 1958. Who could forget that game? Even in '58, how is that possible? [laughs] I don't know. I don't know.
5:48
You'd think, you'd think when you're, when you're at zero for that long, at some point you just get over the red line. Right. You don't even have to get over the blue line. Just get over center ice. Just slap it.
5:56
Fire one at the goaltender- Yeah... and just, just get something on the board. I [laughs] I mean, that's ridiculous. I mean, like, yeah, like, like you always, I always think about basketball, right?
6:03
Like, "Hey, we're gonna pass it three times before we shoot," because guys are chucking it up too much. Yeah.
6:08
Like in hockey, wouldn't, at that point in the third period of that game, would, isn't the coach have to, has to be like, "Once you get past the blue line, just shoot it."
6:15
One of the, what- Do we, do we tr- Go ahead, Jake... do we trust the 1950s, uh, shot counter guys? I was gonna say. [laughs] Like, this, this guy could've ju- You know what? That's fair...
6:21
he could've just taken the night off. I, who, who knows, who knows what that guy was up to back then? Oh, man. It, it's so true, because then I'm looking at something else.
6:29
It says, "Oh, the nine shots tied a franchise record for fewest shots in a game during a loss to the Red Wings in 1955." So there seems to be some, some oddities here with this.
6:37
And, uh, there were so many great moments when Kelly, Matt, and I did Primetime Action, but some of these, uh, hit trigger in my brain, uh, memory of it.
6:45
When Kelly and I first discovered, when you first told us, or maybe it was Andy MacNeil who told us, I can't remember. It might've been you, Jake. Shots on goal? I don't know.
6:52
Shots that hit the, shots that hit the post are not- Oh, yeah... shots on goal. These are subjective things where the count, that count as shots on goal.
7:01
But if a goalie goes outside of the goal and makes, and makes a save, that counts as a shot on goal, correct, uh, Jake? It used to. Yeah. Now things have changed a little bit- Yeah...
7:10
where they're l- they're a lot more stingy with shots. If you j- if you even just look at save percentages across the league right now, way down across the board for goaltenders.
7:18
And a lot of people are going, "Well, are goaltenders just worse now? You know, what's going on? Are shooters just better?" And look, these guys can rip the puck, no, no doubt about it.
7:26
Basically everybody, even the fourth line guys now can really shoot it. But that is something that's drastically changed, if you've watched it over the last few years.
7:33
Those shots that Kelly just mentioned, those, you know, outside, not even going, not even going into the net at all, used to be a freebie save for the goalie, pad the stats a little bit.
7:41
Those don't count as shots anymore, and I think that's a b- that's a big reason why you're seeing save percentages go down the way they are. Hmm.
7:47
Okay, here's the other, here's the other question from Ice Goon, which is, "There are realistically four teams fighting for the second wildcard spot in the West. Who gets it?"
7:54
He says, "I'm a Kings fan, but have us, uh, plus 325 to miss. Easiest schedule left, but too inconsistent to make it, right?" He says, by the way, the Predators are the team that currently inhabit- Yeah...
8:05
the number two wildcard position. Yeah, the Preds with four wins in a row now find themself in a playoff spot, and a lot of people left them for dead early in the season.
8:12
They play the Sharks tonight, too, and both two teams going opposite directions. So Nashville has a chance to build off of that. But I still like LA to make it here, guys.
8:21
I, I, I know Kings fans are probably, probably frustrated coming off the weekend, but the weekend was the tougher part of their schedule.
8:27
They played Buffalo on Saturday, then they had to go to Utah on a road back-to-back, and they lost that game in overtime. So they did lose both games.
8:34
They were able to find a point in what I thought was a tough spot on Sunday in Utah. This is now where it gets easy. Tonight in Calgary, three against Vancouver. There's another one against the Flames.
8:42
I think they play the Leafs in there. Two against Nashville that, you know, now all of a sudden maybe not looking as easy, but they're both in LA.
8:49
So I know Kings fans are probably frustrated right now, but the schedule still sets up for them. The one angle I do like, though, is looking at teams to miss the playoffs instead of teams to make it.
8:58
I do find you get a little bit of better, better value on that, because a lot of people wanna bet teams to make the playoffs. Uh, so if you are looking at, at teams to miss, that's probably the angle to go for.
9:07
Yeah, he's got Kings to miss. Um, okay, you have two sides. You have a total, and you have a parlay. What do you got? What are the sides? Let's start there. Yeah, I, I, yeah, let's go with the sides here, guys.
9:17
Uh, uh, well, I, we just talked about Ottawa, right? The shot suppression.
9:20
Now, unfortunately, this Thomas Chabot injury does not look good, and sounds like he's cer- certainly gonna be out for tonight, and sounds like they could be without him for the foreseeable future.
9:28
Jake Sanderson's not coming back soon. So I don't know what the Sens blueline's gonna look like for this game.
9:33
Uh, guys like Tyler Kleven, Jordan Spence, they're gonna have to step up and play a few more minutes in this one, and they are on a road back-to-back. I don't really care.
9:40
I, I still, I just like how this Sens team is playing. I don't love how the Red Wings have been playing now for a while. They've got injuries of their own. So even on a back-to-back, I'm going with the Ottawa Senators.
9:50
They saved their starting goaltender for this matchup. They started veteran James Reimer last night against the Rangers team that we talked about could barely get a shot on goal.
9:58
So I like Linus Ullmark and the Sens to find a way to win. I think we're getting a good number because of all those factors I mentioned working against Ottawa in this situation.
10:05
You're also, uh, you're also on the Hurricanes. I, I'm gonna go with the Hurricanes here, guys. I, look, this is a tough week for the Montreal Canadiens s- set- setting up for them. They got the Canes here.
10:15
They have the Jackets on Thursday, who are playing some great hockey, and they do get the Canes again on Sunday. They also play, I believe it's Nashville on Saturday. I have to double-check that.
10:23
But they have two road games on the weekend, Saturday and Sunday, so four games this week. And Montreal's had a great season, but this is the kind of week that could really trip you up. You lose a few of these games.
10:33
Uh, they might find a way to win a couple. I don't know if it's tonight. I think Carolina's really dialing in their game for the playoffs here. I think a bad matchup for the Montreal Canadiens, so give me the Canes.
10:42
All right, the total is the Caps/Blues under six. Yeah, this is a bit of a trend play for me, guys.
10:48
I'm not a huge trend bettor, but I think when I see one like this, and just, just my eyes when I watch these teams, when I watch these games, the St.
10:55
Louis Blues, the, it's been a bad season, but they are kind of fighting down the stretch here. And, and they, they're playing a, a really tight brand of hockey.
11:02
Uh, 10 of their last 11 games have not gone over a total of five. They've been playing some very tight, low-scoring games. Capitals need wins to try to desperately get back in this thing.
11:12
I think they'd be happy playing a, a low-scoring road game here to try to pick up their two points, so give me the under six in the Caps/Blues game. And what's the parlay, Jake?
11:21
The parlay, again, uh, like I said, I don't usually bet trends. I don't, I'm not a huge moneyline parlay bettor either. But I think this time of the year, uh, this is something you could take a look at.
11:30
I, I, I struggle to find how Boston's gonna lose this game to the Maple Leafs tonight. But I don't trust them to play them on the puck line or in regulation, because the Bruins go to overtime quite a bit.
11:40
So I'm gonna take the Bruins. I'm gonna play them on the moneyline. I'll put them with the Dallas Stars, who are, you know, coming off of a, a bit of a tough weekend.
11:46
I think a, a bounce-back spot here against the New Jersey Devils team that's completely out of it. So Bruins, Stars on the moneyline parlay. Okay.
11:53
Uh, Jake, next time you're here, let's, uh, let's talk about that three-way tie angle that you sort of mentioned before. Yes. Let's do that. Yeah, it- Um-... it, it's a g- great angle this time of year, guys.
12:02
Teams get, uh, desperate to, to at least get that point in the third period. Okay. We shall do that. Jake Hahn, everybody. Thank you, Jake. Appreciate it, as always. Thanks guys. Good luck this week. You too.
12:13
Jay Han Four, H-A-H-N, the number four on Twitter. Matty Cox, Sweet 16 next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
12:26
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12:51
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12:57
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13:03
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13:09
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
13:16
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13:25
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13:32
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13:42
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13:53
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14:01
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14:12
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14:52
Um, we get tweets, beauty of the book. Let me just read a few here. This is from, uh, Chris Squires at, uh, DBamalot. I think I'm saying that correctly. He says, uh, "Gil wanted to add a different angle on that.
15:04
Great observation by Fezzik on the Rockies. If you're higher on the Rocks than the market, a lot of the advanced metrics are, betting the worst record at MLB has value.
15:13
I personally bet Nats 7-1, Angels 23-1, White Sox 20-1." So Chris is saying he doesn't like the Rockies to, uh, to get the worst record, so there's value elsewhere.
15:24
That's the- You know, we- That's the beauty of baseball betting, man. There's, there's something for everyone. Yeah, and we've heard, we've heard a couple of those- Yeah... this off-season, right?
15:30
With, I mean, what are they, minus 400 or something absurd to have the worst record? So yeah, we, we've heard a couple of those. Baws at Jump Ball says, uh, oh, I like that. Jump Ball. See what he did there? Mm-hmm.
15:40
Jump Ball. Uh, "Bruins Stars parlay seems dangerously easy," he says. I'll ride. [laughs] Uh, Nick Kendhammer.
15:47
Oh, he's talking about, uh, well, he's talking about Todd Golden's defense on the last sequence in the Gators game over the weekend where they lost to Iowa
15:54
on the, "We'll cover the in-bounds pass, and then the in-bounds pass catcher will be already ahead of three defenders, and they get the three. They get any shot they want, really."
16:03
He said, "Florida D was bad on that last play, but apparently Kenpom would tell co..." I can't even, I don't understand what he's saying. "Would tell coaches, but every coach, like most with analytics, said GTFO."
16:15
I don't have to say that out loud. I didn't understand that sentence. He goes, "But Golden did that while at San Fran as well." Yeah, let me, let me clarify. In theory,
16:24
I don't hate the analytics play of fouling the correct guy when up two. Obviously, you don't wanna foul an 89% free throw shooter. Yeah. But if you can foul the correct guy,
16:36
you're going to overtime at worst with the better team. So I kinda get it. It's just that the execution of it all was just so [laughs] bad. No, it was a disaster. It was just a disaster.
16:49
They gave up the three, and that's it. I mean, look- Florida's bounced... we talked about it yesterday. I'd be lying if I sat here and said that I've thought about it ever- Yes...
16:56
before in a college basketball g- game to foul up two. In theory, I love the idea- I, I-... 'cause nothing drives me more nuts than watching these kids miss free throw after free throw in the tournament.
17:05
And I love a coach who's thinking outside the box. Mm-hmm. It makes tons of sense.
17:11
Um, but then the anti-analytics crowd, they'll see a play like that, and they'll see it botch so horribly, and that's great fodder for them to just be like, "Why don't you worry about playing defense?"
17:19
And they might be right about that. Mm-hmm. Matty Cox joins us now to talk Sweet 16. He's part of the Three Man Weave crew. You can follow them on Twitter at 3MW_CBB. You can follow Matt at Matty with a Y_COX.
17:31
How you doing, Matt? Doing good, fellas. Now enjoying your, uh, your, you know, sort of framing the debate of some end game strategy here.
17:38
I- the, the key thing with the rule changes this year is, um, I, a lot of coaches scared to foul, uh, when they're up three because of the continuation- Yes... the way they're sort of giving more leeway to that.
17:50
Um, and then you also have to not only trust your players to execute, which we saw Florida sort of fail, and then the referees have to, uh, you know, do their part and call it, you know, square on the button, which obviously is, uh, you know, not, not always the best zebras doing, doing college games.
18:03
So yeah, I, I see both sides. Uh, per usual, there's never a, uh- Yeah... a black and white story to any of this stuff.
18:08
Uh, once again, you've, you've brought up something that w- I talked about on air yesterday, and then after the show I, I gave Fezzik all, all his flowers earlier today about the baseball plays.
18:17
But he went on and on about this, right? Uh, I mentioned on the show the end game of Kansas and St. John's, how if Fezzik is like, "Oh my God, they're, they're idiots.
18:28
They used all their fouls to give before the six-second mark."
18:31
And I'm like, "Well, Steve, directionally you are correct, but everything you just said, Matt," is what I pointed out to him over and over again, which is, but none of this is so ex- I- you can't execute this with perfection, with teen- es- especially with teenage kids, right on a basketball court.
18:46
And there's always the ref, "I don't know, continuation." Then you worry, "Oh my God, what, what's the ref gonna call?" None of this is perfect, right? None of this is absolute.
18:55
So I agree with what you're saying, uh- Yeah... o- on that stuff, Matt. Uh, okay, let's do these one by one. I'm just curious, give us, give us 30 seconds or however long you wanna go on each of these.
19:06
Let's start with Thursday games. Um, I'll do these in chronological order. Texas, Purdue. Purdue favored by a touchdown now. This is lower than it was yesterday. What do you think?
19:17
Yeah, Purdue, just a good, uh, statistical nugget. They have the best two-way shooting variance of any team the last 30 years through two games to get here.
19:25
Now, it's two games, but they've been on fire, um, and their opponents they've played so far have not been anything. I think Texas is kind of a tough matchup for them.
19:32
Uh, Daylon Swain, kind of a powerful athletic guard, the prototype that's given that team trouble. But Purdue does feel like they're starting to play better, uh, after they had that many low.
19:40
I think the number's about right. Um, y- maybe you could argue Texas has a little bit... I, I made this six for the record, so only about a point off the, uh, the, the real.
19:47
And I, nothing here, but I think M- Texas has some good matchup, um, advantages that, that they can, that we've seen other teams Purdue play, uh, struggle against. Yeah.
19:57
If there's a total you wanna chime in on as well, please feel free. Yeah. Actually, I, I won't do th- I won't do these chronologically. I'll do it by region, makes more sense.
20:04
So the Purdue, Texas winner, the 211 game, uh, out west, plays the winner of Arizona and Arkansas, the one-four game, later that night. Uh, Arkansas, a eight-point dog against the number one seed Wildcats.
20:18
Yeah, it feels big. I have a future on Arkansas. I think this is one where it's either, uh, there's been a, a few of these matchups so far where you either like the favorite or you like the money line for the dog.
20:26
I think this is, I, I don't see an in-between, uh, situation. Arkansas' defense is super leaky, but they are athletic.
20:33
You can see them maybe playing up defensively, um, because we know how good they can s- how, how dynamic they are offensively with Acuff at the point attack.
20:40
The number feels high, but it's high because the total's high, right? So I think this'll play closer to, like, you know... It'll play closer to, like, a 10-point spread here. I like the over.
20:48
Uh, no official bet, but I just think this is gonna be a, you know, up-and-down ping pong pace with a ton of efficiency both ways. Most, uh, closely lined game of the Sweet 16. We go to the south region.
20:58
Uh, the four-seeded Nebraska Cornhuskers, the ninth seeded Iowa Hawkeyes. Nebraska favored by one and a half. I like Iowa here. Almost bet this, um, just a good matchup, right? Iowa's not super athletic, not super big.
21:10
Um, both games they played them super clo- They beat them once, like, off-season. The other one they lost in overtime.
21:15
Um, and Nebraska no longer has that crazy home court advantage that I think was very, very real, um, probably worth a point or two, um, in, in that first, uh, sorry, those first two games. I mean, I...
21:26
Cat said it was the best home court crowd he's ever seen in a first, uh, a, an opening regional, uh, site. So I think Iowa wins this game. Lowest total of all the Sweet 16 games, by the way. We're showing 134 and a half.
21:37
Yeah. I'm seeing some 133 and a halves here as well. Winner of Iowa, Nebraska takes on the winner of what I think most would say is the best game on Thursday night. Yep.
21:44
Illinois, Houston, the three-two game in the south region, with the Cougars favored by three. Yeah, Houston took some money here. Um, probably, I think one of the, uh- Yeah, three and a half are showing now. Yeah...
21:56
all of 30 teams t- Yeah, up to three and a half. So I, I don't know. I just think Houston's guards are too good, man. They were just so... They shredded A&M.
22:02
Um, Illinois' size is gonna be a real kind of you might have to get used to for Houston, but Houston's played, you know, they, Big 12.
22:08
They, they've seen some big teams, and I think they're categorically more athletic on the perimeter. I think that shows up here. I, I don't wanna lay three and a half. That feels a little bit too big.
22:15
Uh, but I think instinctually that's where my, uh, my head's at. Okay, to Friday night, DC, maybe the best, uh, couple games of any region. St. John's and Duke. Duke is favored by six and a half here. Yeah.
22:28
I like the John's. This is my only official bet of, uh, of this round. Uh, I took seven. Just think their physicality and size up front is gonna give Duke some problems.
22:35
I think people have been overplaying that narrative.
22:37
Um, I think Duke still advances, but i- it's hard to see a Rick Pitino team getting, you know, beat by more than a touchdown, especially against a Duke team that's not 100%.
22:44
The injury, um, situation with Foster and, uh, Big Pat's gonna be key to watch as we get closer to tip and how much they're gonna play. But, uh, I think a brittle Duke team is, is not one, uh, not ripe to cover this.
22:56
Sadly, Matt, you and I, it's the only bet I have too, St. John's bus the points. Yeah. What could go wrong? Winner of that game takes on the two-three game in the East, Michigan State and UConn, UConn being the two seed.
23:06
Uh, UConn favored by two. Tough matchup here. I went back and forth. Um, if Michigan State continues to get some production from...
23:15
They really have, like, the, their, their number two, their, the two position for them, they're kind of off guard next to Fears. We know they have Cullen Carr, who's a freak, but have a ton of bigs.
23:24
If they keep getting production from guys like Kurt Tang and Trey Ford, sort of these unsung heroes, I think they're the better team here. That, that's really been the key for Michigan State all year.
23:32
When they've had issues, they've not gotten production from that two spot. But so far in this tournament lately, they have.
23:36
I think that kind of makes them pretty scary, uh, you know, not just in this matchup, but potentially going down the road to the final four. All right, to the Midwest, Alabama, Michigan. Surprise, Alabama still alive.
23:46
They made their seeding. But Michigan's favored by 10. Biggest spread, highest total, 175 and a half.
23:53
Yeah, similar to the Ar- Arizona, Arkansas, it feels high, but it's because it's such a high total, so it's just, that kind of stretches out the, uh, the margin of victory there.
24:02
Just don't know how well 'Bama's bigs are gonna match up, uh, inside. But if they continue to do what they did against, um, we saw them do it against Hofstra, actually, first round.
24:10
Oats just let those bigs step out in the, you know, behind the line, just start, you know, stroking it from three. If they're hot, I think that's how Michigan can get beat.
24:16
We saw Wisconsin do that to Michigan this year, just go five out. If your bigs can make threes consistently, if you can kind of tilt the math in your favor, that's a big ask, though.
24:24
They have to make a lot of threes to keep up with Michigan's just, you know, they basically are flawless on both ends at this point. But that's the one area you can kind of pick on them. All right.
24:32
And then the winner of that takes on the two-six game in the Midwest, Iowa State favored by four over Tennessee.
24:39
Yeah, it's one of the, and market has Tennessee, um, rated lower than most of the models because the fact that they just, for example, Kenpom has this a four-point deficit, and then Josh Jefferson for Iowa State, I mean, if he's not gonna play, he scores at least two points.
24:52
Um, I stayed away here. I think Tennessee's a tough matchup, though, especially if, uh, if Jefferson's not 100% or can't go, it'll be a tough one there for the, uh, the, the Cyclones to overcome. Thank you, Matt.
25:03
Appreciate it. Thank you, fellas. Mark Borchert joins us now to talk Major League Baseball because the season begins tomorrow night.
25:10
He joins us from an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert @basewinner, basewinner.com, and of course, the host of a Bet US baseball show, which he does multiple times a week. How you doing, Mark?
25:23
Oh, we don't have Mark's audio. I bet he's saying something really fascinating right now. I'm, I'm sure he is. Yeah. Well, should I read more tweets before we get that audio? Oh, try that again, yeah. All right.
25:33
Uh, NoEmuD- oh, NoEmuDoug. I love those commercials, and Doug. Um- They still crack me up. [laughs] Mr.
25:41
Gill, "Would a dominant pro tennis player show up and lose to meet contract obligations and then to get a few days off before the next match?" Yes, happens all the time. Mm-hmm.
25:51
Uh, GameTime Jones, "I think there's a correlation with Lee winning Coach of the Year and Charlotte winning the division. 40 to one, much nicer than four to one." That's for sure.
25:58
Another great point about Lee's candidacy for Coach of the Year. God, division's chaos. Uh, Nathaniel Schumann, "I have Arizona 30 to one to win the NCAA Natty. When to cash out?" He's already ready to cash out.
26:11
"Also, I have Tim Hardaway Jr. at 100 to one for sixth man." Do you think that has any shot? I don't think he's completely out of it. Okay. He was one of the seven guys that I listed.
26:20
I mean, again, it's one of seven guys. Let's see if Mark Borchert can join us now, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Mark, you there? Yeah, you gave me such a good intro. I, I wanted you to do it again. Okay.
26:32
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, Base Winner, basewinner.com, and of course, uh, part of the Bet US show, which he does multiple times a week, it's Mark Borchert, everybody. Hey. [clapping] You're the best, Gil.
26:44
You must be the voice of sports betting. Must be that. Must be that. Thank you. It's very kind of you to say. I, uh, don't know if I accept that, uh, moniker, but thank you.
26:52
Um, Mark, we've talked about- If it's not you, who else is it? You were... I tell you what, Gil, I'm gonna pat you on the back.
26:58
You were doing this stuff way before, and, and VSiN's great, they do a good job over there, but you preceded them by eight years, so you are the voice of sports betting, in, in my opinion. There you go.
27:09
Todd Wi- you know what Todd Wishnev... Thank you, thank you, Mark. It's very nice of you. Very kind of you. Todd Wishnev, uh- You're a pioneer. S- Legend, perhaps.
27:16
[laughs] But I called, I called Bob- That's such a horrible word. I'm with Bob on that. [laughs] It's like, it makes you, it makes you think like you're 80 years old, which maybe we are. I don't know.
27:25
I don't, maybe Bob's 80. I don't know. No, he's not 80. I'm close to it, so. No, he's 60.
27:29
But he, he, the thing about Bob, though, is he didn't not only, it wasn't enough for him to say, "I don't like pioneer, it makes me feel old." He then followed up with, "I prefer legend."
27:36
[laughs] And that is why we keep busting on him, because who says that? [laughs] And now he complains because he's like, "Gil, I said that one time." I go, "The one is all it took, Bob." Yeah. "One is all it took."
27:45
The one thing about Bob, he doesn't have a problem with, with being confident. No, he does not. And you know what? He should be.
27:50
He does a hell of a job, so if anybody's gonna be confident, it's gonna be him, and I'm all for that. All right. You know, he does a really good job. What a, what a great handicapper he is.
27:57
He's a, he's a legend in my mind, at least. He is. He is in mine as well. I, I, I am fortunate to, uh, learn on his knee. What's the, what's the expression? Well, I don't know what the expression is. Anyway. Yeah, sure.
28:07
I get it. Yeah. Yeah. I understand. Okay. Baseball. Hey, Mark, I don't know if you know this, but baseball starts tomorrow night. Were you aware of this? Tomorrow night, Giants and Yankees on Netflix. It's so cool.
28:18
Talk about old. I mean, we're streaming on Netflix. Who woulda, who woulda guessed that? Talk about when we started, we wouldn't have said, "Hey, you know, in 2026 they're gonna stream on Netflix."
28:27
We wouldn't even had that concept, Gil. I think they were still sending the CDs out in the mail when, uh, back then when we started. Right. Yeah. [laughs] Jesus, so true. All right. So we've talked- Yeah...
28:36
we've talked about a lot of different things. You've given us exactas, some awards markets, some stat stuff. Um, how about some yes/no playoff stuff? I don't think we got to that.
28:46
Didn't you have some of those in the holster? Yeah. I've, I've got all the playoffs by division. I don't know what... You could, why don't you just r- reel 'em off to me. I'll tell you whether it's good or bad. Okay.
28:53
Well, well let's start with the AL East, right? Let, let's, uh, let's do this. I'll, I'll call up the actual ones, but let's start with the, uh, I'll do the DraftKings numbers on these.
29:01
The Yankees are at, um, 90 and a half. Oh, I thought we were doing playoffs. Are we doing playoffs- Oh. Oh, yes. I'm sorry... to make the playoffs? I'm sorry.
29:11
Yes, uh, [laughs] oh, I got locked up in my season wins, pardon me. See, I've been doing this so long, I got senile with it. All right.
29:17
Yes/no playoffs on the Yankees, just, just as a point of sort of con- contextually, they're 90 and a half in their season wins. They're supposed to win the division. But what do you have them in the playoffs, yes or no?
29:28
I've got them at minus 432 to make the playoffs. They're priced... I, I'm looking at the pricing now, so minus 270, so that's a good bet for the Yankees. Okay. Blue Jays.
29:39
Blue Jays I've got at minus 134, and they're at minus 200, so that would be a bad bet. I'm not seeing the, the, you know, the, the... Can you do no too, but I, I can't really see that anywhere. Yeah, I got it.
29:49
But, uh, your hockey guy, who's the hockey guy that you had on? He made a good point, like, you know, it's, it's better to play these teams if you can, to play 'em no than yes, because most people wanna play 'em yes.
29:59
I, I agree with him wholeheartedly on that, Gil. Um, okay. So yes on the Yankees is a good bet. Blue Jays- Yeah... yes minus 200, no plus two, uh, 160 over at DraftKings. No is plus 160.
30:12
Let's go that, that way, 'cause it should be minus 134. Kelly, good job. What was the, what was the official Red Sox? Was, or, or the, or the Blue Jays before that, what was it? Blue Jays was a no. Red Sox was a what?
30:23
Blue Jays no plu- no plus 160. Good bet. No, but what was the one before what we just did? We did the- Yankees... Yankees. Yeah, y- y- you're... Talk about, you're losing it, dude. Wait a minute.
30:32
Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. No, no, no. Yankees minus 270. Wait a minute. Did we just do two or did we do three? Yeah, just two. Just two. I thought we did three. Yankees and Blue Jays. Okay.
30:38
That's what I- Ask him the third now. Red Sox? [laughs] Red Sox. Yeah. Kelly went rogue. Red Sox. Red Sox minus 182 by my comparisons in the mar- So it's about what it is in the market, but minus 170 there. No.
30:51
All right. Yeah, no price plus 135. So e- no play. No play. Let's, let's- Orioles. Orioles are plus 115 by the model, and let's see where they are in the, in the odds. I'm not seeing them in the... There they are.
31:04
Mi- they're... Oh, look, they're minus 150, so no- nothing either way on them, Gil. Okay, and then the Rays. Rays are plus 529 by the model, plus 310, and probably on the- Oh, my God... on the comeback.
31:17
It's probably n- no play either way. Okay, so best of the AL East is... Yankees to make it, Blue Jays to not make it. There you go. Yankees to make it, Blue Jays to not make it. We'll get all of the other divisions.
31:30
We'll try to be more, and by we, I mean me, try to be more organized with this. It's the Numbers Game. Mark Borchardt, base winner, coming back. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
31:42
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
31:47
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
31:55
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
32:01
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
32:08
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
32:17
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
32:26
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
32:39
[upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers Game brought to you by Profit X.
32:55
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33:16
You gotta shoot your shot to earn your shot. We get tweets, we need to book Anthony Ventresca. Another iguana fun fact.
33:22
During the last cold front we had in January, the Florida hi-, uh, the, in January, the Florida Wildlife Commission allowed people to collect and transport the cold stunned iguanas to some FWC locations, an interesting way to try to combat the invasive species.
33:36
See, when they're frozen, you just grab them, and you just put them in, and you send them to the authorities. Pi- pick them up and ship them out.
33:42
There's also a thing where they started allowing people to go vigilante on the iguanas. That's a whole nother thing, too. Yeah, and the, uh- Yeah... uh- Not fun... pythons. What's the, uh, snakes they got down there?
33:54
I don't remember. Dude, that's like open hunt- You should, you should see the size of these iguanas... it's like open hunting season down there.
34:00
Denver Lance, "The NBA Clutch Player of the Year market available at some books is interesting. Luka number seems crazy," he says.
34:06
Bobby Gettys, "Sorry if this came up already, but regarding the NIT not having games on Monday through Wednesday, that has to be a deal for the women's tournament, right? So that they don't have direct competition?"
34:16
I have to think that that's true. I mean, yeah, but isn't there, isn't there nothing today? That's what I'm... Uh, well, yeah, so there, you're right. So we lose out on both today. Yeah.
34:25
And then, uh, Dan Groeschel, "I think legend is appropriate to use for Dr. Bob, as we all learn in the documentary The Sandlot. Heroes get remembered, but legends never die."
34:33
And Steve The Proxy says, "With baseball season upon us, it's always fun to bash MLB for blackouts.
34:37
With Vegas blacking out San Francisco, Arizona, San Diego, [laughs] the Dodgers, the A's, and the Angels, we're excluded from 20% of the league's games.
34:45
What makes the least sense is why are those teams blacked out on the road? If the Mets are playing the Dodgers in New York, why is that blacked out?
34:51
Am I supposed to just take a quick trip to Queens and come back to support the local team? What decade is this?" Hey, Rob Manfred has it all figured out. All figured out. Don't you worry. Two NIT games today.
35:01
Wichita State and Tulsa, St. Joseph's and New Mexico. [laughs] And Minky Monkey Man says, "Gil gets referred to as a pioneer and immediately slips into cognitive incapacity."
35:09
[laughs] That's 'cause I was already on the third team, and Kelly went back to the second team odds. My goodness. Okay, I'm back. Mark Borchardt is back as well. Base winner, Curtis the Progressive Guest Line.
35:20
Mark, you wanna, you wanna continue with this? I'm having so... I'm having fun today. Cognitive decline on the Voice of Sports Betting. [laughs] Just, I, I mean, unbelievable. Yeah, yeah.
35:28
We, so we- That's all it takes... it took, it took us, like, a 15-minute seg- segment to get through one division in the playoffs. That's right. So let's try to- [laughs] 20- I guess we could go- 20 years- Okay...
35:36
down the drain in one segment. Uh, here we go. Detroit Tigers, 85 and a half. The over is at minus... Oh, excuse me, that's the season wins again. Uh- [laughs]... make miss playoffs. Jesus. Break, m- make win, uh, win,
35:49
uh, the playoffs yes nos. This is very hard to navigate with it. Okay. So what do you got? Detroit Tigers.
35:55
I, you know, I have them at minus, so 53.7, minus 116, and they're priced in an in-market at minus 185, so there's probably... Kelly's gonna do on the no. He's gonna give us the no value. Yeah, give us the no.
36:06
What's the no price on that, Kelly? Plus 150. [laughs] Yeah, that's a good one. No on the Tigers. Okay, no on the Tigers.
36:13
How about the, how about the- And then, you gotta, we're goofing off a little bit, but I wanna, I wanted to stress, if you guys are just listening, you're like, "Who's this joker?"
36:20
I run, like, really detailed Monte Carlo simulations. I spend hours on ratings, and I actually seed all these teams and then run the, you know, you know, run the, run the projections, I don't know, 2,000 times.
36:32
So it's, it's, these are decent numbers, even though we're goofing off a little bit. We, yeah, we should, we sh- you're right, though. We should always reset that for people who are just listening for the first time.
36:40
And your ba- and your Bet US show is how many times a week, Mark? Uh, we do five days a week. Uh, I'm not on on Wednesday, but the other guys are pretty good, too. Um, not as good as me, of course, Gil. Wow.
36:52
I'm gonna, I'll be the confident guy, right? So, um- Wow. Talk, talk about bias...
36:54
but yeah, Monday through Friday, and, and, and we're gonna do it actually at 9:00 AM PST, so I'm gonna have to change my f- my time to earlier for you guys. Hi, Kelly. Just- [laughs]...
37:03
just wanna let you know about that. That's, that's good, Mark. Yeah. We have a lot of off-air g- conversations on air. It's fine. All right. Kansas City Royals. Kansas City Royals, yes, +130, no, -160. This one I like.
37:15
I like Kansas City at -212, and, and so that's, I mean, plus money on the Royals, it's one of my favorite plays. That, that's a good play.
37:22
And you, you look at their pitching and their, their relief, but the hitting's great. They've got, you know, Pasquantino and Garcia and Witt, and I mean, they're, they're loaded.
37:31
They're, like, fourth in, in, in baseball by my, by my hitting ratings. So that's a f- one that I really like, the Royals to make the playoffs. Uh, Guardians, yes, +230, no, -290.
37:44
I have them at +197, uh, to make it, so do what you will with that. Do what you will with that. Doesn't sound like a play to me. Twins, yes, +425- Yeah... to make the playoffs, no, -600. I think the -600's decent.
38:00
I've, I, it should be -930 to not make the playoffs based on the sims. All right. White Sox. White Sox. So a lot of people are bullish on them this year. Yes is big money, 16 to 1.
38:12
Yeah, I've got them with a, with a half a percent chance, which I guess is better than last year. But I don't think, can you bet no on that? Like, what do you have to lay? Oh, yeah...
38:19
lay, like, $50 to win one or something like that? Well, it's even. That's even. That's a good bet there. It's funny you should ask. Uh, you can, [laughs] you can lay exactly $50 for the no.
38:29
That's what you would have to lay. All right. Okay. To the NL, to the American League, or Western Division. Seattle Mariners, uh, yes, -280, the no is +220. This is a jewel.
38:40
I've got a 91.7 time, uh, percent chance to make the playoffs, so it should be -1100. So that, I mean, lay the wood on that one, Gil. Lay the wood on the Mariners to make. Texas Rangers, yes, +115, no, -140.
38:55
I've only got them, Gil, you're not gonna like this, 17.4% chance to make the playoffs, so- Ugh... uh, it should be -475 to the no. Boy, between Drew and Mark today, it's been rough going.
39:05
[laughs] It's been rough going on the show today. Those jokes for you, man. Uh, Houston Astros, yes, -150, no, -105. As, as coin flippy as it gets. Uh, I would say the no on that.
39:16
Uh, I would say no would be -196, so that's a good play. Okay. Good luck finding the Athletics, 'cause they don't have a, uh, a team name. So yes, +380, no, -500.
39:29
I've got no, -319, so I guess yes, +380 would be a little bit of value, the slightest amount of value there. Slightest bit. Um, and then the LA Angels to close out the American League, yes is eight to one, no is -1400.
39:44
2.1% chance to make the playoffs, so it should be, uh, -4667. So I mean, lay it, I guess. Okay. So the best in the American League then, you would say, would be? Give us the three best.
39:56
Mar- Mariners and Royals, I think you're good there. I, I, and if you can parlay and parlay those things, I think that both those teams will, will make it. So- Okay...
40:02
hopefully they do, and we're talking about it in, in, uh, in playoff time. NL East, rapid fire. Atlanta Braves. Okay. Yes, -170, no, +140. Uh, Atlanta Braves to make the playoffs, 75% chance, -305, so yes. Yes. Phillies.
40:19
Yeah. -310, yes. No, +235. No, but they only have a 48% chance to make the playoffs. New York Mets. A lot of people very bullish on the Mets this year. Yes, -350, no, +270. I am bullish, too.
40:35
I've got them at 86%, -647, so that's a good play, Gil. Miami Marlins, yes, six to one, no, -1,000. I've got them with a 6, uh,.7% chance, so I would bet the no on that. It should be -1300 no. All right.
40:51
Then the Nationals, 16 to 1, yes, 50, -5000 no. Sh- I got them with a.3% chance to make the playoffs. Yeah. So that's lousy, so yeah. Okay. Uh, to the Central. Chicago Cubs, yes is -250, no, +195.
41:07
-199 to make it is what the projections say. Oh, okay, so not a bet then, really. Um- Yeah, it's, it's kind of right in the straddle there, right. Milwaukee Brewers, yes is -120, the no is even money.
41:22
Pretty, uh, coin flippy here. I love the Brewers here. I've got an 82% chance to make the playoffs, minus one, -456, and we talked about that, you know, all the components add up there for the Brewers.
41:34
Cincinnati Red Legs, yes is +180, no, -225. Mm, I've got them with a 29.6% chance, so yes should, yes should be +238. The Buckos, the Pittsburgh Pirates, yes, +225, no, -290.
41:54
Oh, I'd take the no on that. I th- only have a 5% chance, and like, I'm, I'm at odds with some baseball hipsters on this, but, but the Pirates just don't rate well f- with my, uh, with my numbers.
42:03
So no on that one's a good one, Gil. And the Cardinals, seven to one, yes, -1100, no to make the playoffs. -1100 no, that's pretty good.
42:12
I mean, I know it's a lot of juice to lay, but I don't see that team making the playoffs, Gil. Okay. Uh, Dodgers, [laughs] -5000 yes. To make the playoffs. 18 to one no Uh, well, you know what?
42:25
I've got them with a 99.3% chance. Now, what's interesting about... I wanna talk a little bit about the division for the Dodgers, because you talked a little bit about the Pecota simulations.
42:34
Pecota has the, the Dodgers winning, like, 99.9% of the- I saw that... 99.5 or something. And modern, like, 93.5, and FanGraphs is actually identical to mine at 93.5. And so, like, it would s- it would lay, justify...
42:48
It was minus 700. It would, it would actually justify laying that if you can, you know, depending on how much you can get down at that price, Gil. 10 seconds on- But, but I don't know.
42:55
You can't, you can't do it for the Dodgers. They're... I think, though, 99.3 chance they'll make the playoffs, Gil. 10 seconds on each. Padres, yes, even money, no, minus 120. No, minus 120. Great play.
43:08
San Francisco, yes, plus 190, no, minus 230. No, minus 230. Arizona, you love Arizona. Uh, Arizona, let's see. Yes, two to one, no, minus 250. Yes, two to one. That's a great price. They, they...
43:25
It should be plus 115, Gil. And the Rockies are 35 to one yes. I don't think you like that. No. You know what? I've got them at, at, with a 9% chance. Okay. So that's not a bad, like, flyer, right? Not terrible.
43:38
All right. Mark. Play ball. Appreciate it. Mark Fortune, everybody. Yes, sir. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
43:45
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
43:50
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
43:57
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
44:03
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
44:10
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
44:19
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you could trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
44:26
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
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