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Mar 25, 2026
Best Of A Numbers Game | March 25, 2026
Best Of A Numbers Game | March 25, 2026
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45:49
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Transcript
0:00
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0:33
For those idiots who believe in analytics- This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSIN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:40
This is Numbers Game at VSIN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander. My little buddy Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Hey-o. How we doing?
0:52
Oh, good day today. Major League Baseball- It's back... opening night at Oracle Park in San Francisco, or as we like to call it, or as we like to pronounce it in San Francisco, Pac Bell Park. Hmm.
1:04
That's how we pronounce O-R-A-C-L-E. Giants hosting the Yankees. Yankees a slight favorite. Max Fried, Logan Webb. Get to see if, uh, my Logan Webb most wins for the season bet gets off to a good start.
1:17
Get some run support for the guy, for God's sakes. So baseball begins tonight, a standalone where there's, uh, only NIT games to really compete with as the, uh, March Madness portion of things resumes tomorrow.
1:29
Sweet 16, of course. We look forward to that. Paul Spohrer on Major League Baseball. He gets his final word on the season today. Will Hill with all of his bets.
1:37
We'll talk, uh, a little country club in Miami open, Houston open. Another two and O in tennis yesterday, another winning day. I got three plays today, which we'll get into momentarily.
1:47
We have a Tankapalooza play coming up. Yes, back in the brain-dead parlays coming up. Um, then a little later on we're gonna talk NFL draft. There's some props on positions. Mm-hmm.
2:00
We'll go through, I'll go through what a few mock drafts have on these positions, see if there's any betting value based on what the experts think right now.
2:08
Um, and then I, I love this for Major League Baseball, back to baseball for a second, 'cause we talk about every day here how many different ways there are to bet Major League Baseball.
2:16
I have the, uh, bet on the Reds, most wins March, April. How about last team to lose a game? Let's do that one today. Let's do it, man. Looking forward to it, yeah. Last team to lose a game.
2:26
Oh, and a little later on, ladies and gentlemen, Todd Wishnev, 170 units strong, college hoops, joins us to talk Sweet 16 as well. Um, you do okay yesterday betting-wise? Yeah, yeah. I, I, only Pelicans in action.
2:40
That got home. I covered. I would just like to say this before- That's right, Pelican... before- I see what you did. Before we- I, I've been trying to start that for two years. I don't think it's catching on, Gil.
2:48
Never... No, I don't think it is. Uh, may- maybe if you're New Or- in New Orleans, let me know. I don't, I don't think it's catching on. Numbers Game brought to you by ProphetX, proudly, I assume.
2:56
I should ask before I assume. I have a pet peeve before I give all the tennis picks. What you got? The peoples that, oh, you know armored truck people in the real world, they, they, they take money in and out of banks?
3:06
Yeah, yeah. Well, primarily out of banks, I should say. Um, they, I understand, it's very sensitive, right? You can't, like, joke around.
3:13
There's a kid I, I had a buddy in college who joked around with one of them, they got a gun pulled on him. It was the middle of campus. Really? Oh, yeah. So I get it. In the middle of campus? Middle of campus.
3:20
Campus center. Got a gun pulled out on him 'cause he was just being stupid. So then, uh- Wow... that's not my pet peeve.
3:26
My pet peeve is the, the folks, the similar job in a casino, the folks who take the money out of the slot machines here at, uh, Circa. They think they are the most important human beings on Earth. Kelly, agree?
3:39
Yeah, I, it's, uh, i- i- it's every casino in this town. I don't- Oh my God... I don't really know how it works.
3:44
Like, I, I have a feeling it's kind of like a, like a third party's involved or something 'cause- God forbid I wanna get past you. Jesus... yeah, it's get out of their way. The money's being- Ah...
3:52
the money's being handled. You know what I don't get either? Yeah. I don't... We didn't talk about this before. My favorite part about the job, though- Yeah... you know, the,
3:59
the guys that take out the, the, the kind of little cash boxes, right? They're removing them. They all wear these really loose jumpsuits, and I'm like, "Why would you want the people handling your cash-" [laughs] "...
4:08
wearing, like, a v- wearing a jumpsuit where you could, in theory, put cash in a lot of places?" It's cool, man. Jumpsuits. I don't really get that. All right. Yesterday, uh, hit on Karolina Muchova.
4:18
She wins in s- two s- uh, two, in a straight sets against, I should say two tight sets, but straight sets nonetheless, against Victoria Mboko.
4:26
Sorry for those who followed, uh, the, uh, the futures play from both Drew and Zack. Uh, I had a feeling with Muchova yesterday. She just has a beautiful game that can flummox someone like M- Mboko. That's what happened.
4:38
Muchova moves on. We hit that one, and then easy-peasy last night, straight sets on Francisco Cerundolo over Hugo Humbert. So a two and O in tennis.
4:47
That brings our tennis run to 16 and five with all the dogs thrown in there. That's a plus 13.56 unit run here in Miami. En fuego, man. Which is- Woo... th- this is exactly how the hard courts went last year.
4:59
There was a couple really janky weeks in between the Australian Open and Indian Wells, and then all of a sudden the flourish when the data really manifested. Today it's three. We are getting frisky with it today.
5:09
Two on the men's side, one on the ladies' side.
5:11
On the ladies' side, now this, this line was out over 24 hours ago, and I wasn't gonna play it 'cause it was a little teetering, but then the money just came pouring in on Rybakina. I'm sorry, you cannot not...
5:23
I believe that's a double negative. Yeah. Meaning you have to play Jessie Pegula at plus 180 today.
5:29
Jessica Pegula plus 180, who has played, who has lost to Rybakina here the last few times they played, but they're always competitive. They go to breakers. I'm on Pegula today plus 180.
5:39
That's the early match on the ladies' side. That was a solid Bidlin start to the breakdown. I like that. It had the o- I, "I'm sorry," the double negative. Thank you. Yeah, yeah. Thank you. It was great, real solid.
5:48
Yeah, I'm just parroting you. Yep. Tribute. It's, uh, I prefer homage. [laughs] On the men's- I like it...
5:52
on the men's side today, the big dog, Martin Landaluce, with the Castellano pronunciation, Landaluce plus 212 versus Jiri Lehecka. Landaluce's, uh, hard court numbers are as good if not better than Lehecka's.
6:07
Lehecka the much more known name, but Landaluce has just been unbelievable. We had him as a big $2 plus dog before in this tournament. We'll do it again. Hoping he can keep it going.
6:18
And then Tommy Paul tonight, the American plus 111 versus Arthur Fils, which should be a great matchup. So it's Pegula on the ladies' side. It's Landaluce and Tommy Paul on the men's side You're going down, Artie Fils.
6:31
Oh- Going down... and then there's one more, and then there's one more. We have, this one is not today, this one is tomorrow, the rare day before tennis play.
6:37
I am on Muchova again versus Coco, minus 111 on Muchova in a virtual coin flip. Yeah. Every book I, I've seen out on my screen that has that up right now is minus 110 each side. Yeah. So there you go.
6:50
Three today, one tomorrow. Oh, Jannik Sinner side. He's a small favorite tonight. Yeah, he's a small, small favorite over T- or, uh, Big Foe. Minus 5,000. Yeah, it's pretty accurate. [laughs] I'd say.
7:00
Is that, is that really where Tiafoe's game's at right now? I feel like I've asked you six times about Tiafoe- No, Tiafoe-... in the past six months...
7:05
no, Tiafoe's actually playing very well, but- 15 to 1, just stands no chance... just think about how amazing tennis is. That dude is like a, you know, perennial top- Yes...
7:14
20 player in the world, and he just [laughs] cannot compete. He's 15 to 1- Yes... in a match against Jannik Sinner. Wow.
7:20
And now think about if you tried playing F- Fran- Frances Tiafoe, or even just, like, a great high school player tried playing Frances Tiafoe. That would be- It's one million to one. Yeah. Yeah. Ladies and gentlemen.
7:29
Professionals. Tennis is one thing, and now we are... Oh, I'm sorry, what did you say? [laughs] Pros are good at sports.
7:34
They are good at spo- well, in, but in tennis it's this ridiculous ang- it, it's this ridiculous gain. Like, the greatest team in the NFL
7:43
is not that much better than the 20th best team in the NFL, who's not that, you know, it's just, it's, it's something else. Oh, yeah, it's, it's the same thing, but it's the same, it's the same golf thing, right?
7:52
Where people scream at home like, "Oh, I coulda hit that shot." Yeah. And it's like, yeah, yeah, yeah. Go out there for 18 holes for four days and see how you do on th- on this course against these guys.
8:03
Tennis is one thing. Tankapalooza, much more mixed results. [upbeat rock music] We'll wait for it this time. Oh, yeah. Hmm. Enjoyed the long one. Yeah. Tankapalooza.
8:21
I wonder if people think that that's built into the audio and they don't know that you're doing that live. I'm gonna take that as a compliment. You, you think- I-...
8:27
I would make it in the, uh, the metal scene back in the day? What do you think about that, the crack intro?
8:31
That the, where I, "Oh, yeah," and then I just go [sings] Oh, oh no, I th- I don't think people know that I do that live every time... you, you, you have gotten so consistent with that- Yeah... I think you're right.
8:38
I, I would- Well, I've worked on it... guess at least half the people think that's built in. [sighs] It's, they paid me the middlin' bucks for. Ladies and gentlemen, Tankapalooza, Brain Dead Parlays,
8:49
hasn't been going like 2018. We're six and four on these. Now, the legs are 36 and five, so the, the concept remains [laughs] sort, it's sort of like proof of concept but not really making money for us.
9:01
1.04 units to the positive. I hope we've enjoyed that 1.04 units. It's a lot of work for 1.04 units. But Kelly Billy, tonight we have a four-legger. You in this? You in this with me? Yes? No? Not yet.
9:13
Not, not hearing a lot of enthusiasm. Nah, not yet. Nope. Not hearing a lot of it. Uh, four, four-legger today, which pays, uh, a little less than 70 cents on the dollar.
9:24
The four-leg NBA Brain Dead Parlay is the Lakers, Spurs, Nuggets, and Warriors. What could go wrong?
9:31
Lakers are playing the Pacers, Spurs are playing the Grizzlies, Nuggets are playing the Mavs, and the Warriors are playing the Nets. Pays 69 cents, a little more than 69 cents on the dollar.
9:47
No, 65 cents on the dollar, pardon me. I don't wanna lie. 65 cents on the dollar, Lakers, Spurs, Nuggets, Warriors. There you go.
9:55
Yeah, I, I, I really like, I think you could lock and load the Nuggets side right now, the Spurs side for sure.
10:03
Lakers are a little, a lit, Lakers I'm just a little concerned about because what the Pacers did the other night, it's the same sort of thing. Ah. We'll see, though. They really went to it early.
10:11
And, and then, like, I mean, you've been saying it, so I know I don't have to tell you this, but oh boy, this Warriors team- [laughs]... this Warriors team has been tough.
10:17
Oh, before we move off the NBA, can I just say this? R- remember yesterday how I ma- made a big deal over w- Victor Wembanyama talking about his belief that he oughta be the MVP? Mm-hmm.
10:29
And remember yesterday when we went over the odds, it was sort of like fait accompli, we're like, "Look, it's a thousand," and what did I say to you?
10:34
And I, I said, "There's no way this reflects the actual numbers," right?
10:39
In other words, Shai is probably the favorite, but there's no way he's minus 1,000 and the next dude is, like, the only guy lower than 33 to 1 was Luka- Mm-hmm... besides that. Well, guess what?
10:48
After Victor Wembanyama stumped for himself yesterday, look at this. Shai minus 800, Luka 10 to 1, Wembanyama 13 to 1. Those are the best odds you can get them at.
11:01
In other words, it's more crunched up in some other shops, but those are the FanDuel numbers on Luka and Victor. 10 to 1 and 13 to 1. Jokic, though, [laughs] this makes no sense.
11:12
Joka goes the oth- Jokic goes the other direction. Yeah. So anyway, for what it's worth, F-W-I-W if you're typing it out, little tighter.
11:23
And so the question I had asked you yesterday was, do you think Victor talking about himself will matter? Well, in the short term, it sure has. Yeah. Yeah. Based on the betting market.
11:32
No, I mean, there is no, I'm not shocked at all to see the odds move. Um, and yeah, we talked about it. Like, I think it will matter a little bit.
11:38
It, it do- does, never hurts your case to go on a post-game PowerPoint presentation about why you should, uh, [laughs] be in this- Nominated for this award... you know what I think it does, though?
11:47
I really do think it's, it says to many of the voters, and by the way, the betting market is not the voters, right? It's the other thing.
11:53
But I s- I think it says to people, whether they're the voters or the bettors, it says, "Hey, by the way, this, this, like, gap here, this ga- this, that you've already, like, decided it's Shai's, why don't y'all wake up and sort of watch what I'm doing?"
12:06
And he said, he goes, "I'm the best defender out there. By the way, offense is not just scoring. By the way, we crushed the Thunder." These were the main bullet points- Mm-hmm... of his PowerPoint presentation.
12:15
True, true, and true. Coming back on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music]You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners.
12:26
But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home. Pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline, and now so can you. VSiN Pro gives you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use.
12:37
No secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with VSiN Pro.
12:45
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Brackets are for everyone. This is for bettors.
13:02
The VSiN March Betting Challenge is still going. It's not too late to get in on the action. We're down to the Sweet 16, of course. In this round, you have to make five picks, spreads, or totals.
13:11
There's still plenty of prizes still on the line, including one for the highest score from the Sweet 16 onward. I always enjoy the word onward. And if you have a free Edge Boost account, every prize doubles.
13:20
Head to vsin.com/contest and get your picks in now. Speaking of that, uh, numbers game entry, we've gotta get together. I, I was just thinking this too. Yeah. Yeah. We gotta get together and make our picks.
13:29
When's the grand meeting happening? We're two back- Okay... of the VSiN Show contest portion of this with our stellar, you ready for this, 15 and 15 record. Yes, we got passed by Money Moves, right? Got tracked down JVT.
13:45
It's all t- it's all very tight. Um, uh, VSiN Prime Time in the lead, 17 and 13. Okay. As far as the VSiN shows are concerned.
13:53
Before we get to Paul, uh, Sporer in baseball, um, I don't usually comment on stuff like this, but because I, I grew up where I grew up in DC, uh, ACC basketball and then later Big East basketball was just, it was just a way of life and, and UNC and Duke as far as the ACC rivalries are concerned, maybe the biggest rivalry in all of American sports, really, UNC Duke.
14:12
Um, Hubert Davis, uh, will not return. This was, uh, reported yesterday. It was kind of, it, it was not a surprise, right? It's not a surprise, but Hubert Davis officially will not return as North Carolina's head coach.
14:23
Uh, let me translate that, uh, that for you. He was fired. That from Pete Thamel and, uh, Jeff Borzello. He spent the last five years as the head coach of the Tar Heels compiling a 125 and 54 record.
14:33
UNC reached the national title game in his first year there. I just wanna say a few things about this. One,
14:39
if you listen to the last Megapod, the March Madness Megapod, Todd Wishnev's Hubert Davis story is one of the greats of all time. [laughs] Oh, God, I'll have to check that out.
14:46
Uh, it has to do with Todd was playing at a, at a gym, and you know it's, winners stay on the court. Eh. If you lose, you're off the court. So Todd was really, he's like, "Get, feed me the ball. Feed me the ball."
14:56
And this guy on his team was like, "All right, Carolina," 'cause Todd was wearing Carolina shorts. "All right, Carolina."
15:02
And finally, like, Todd, he was, kept getting fed by this guy, and, uh, finally they, they got off the court, and [laughs] one of his teammates said, "You know who you were saying that to, to feed you the ball?"
15:10
He's like, "No. Who was it?" He goes, "Hubert Davis." [laughs] Hubert Davis played for the Knicks at the time, and Todd is, like, lambasting him to give him the ball. [laughs] Anyway, Hubert Davis gr- That's fantastic...
15:19
uh, which, which kind of, like, actually reflects Hubert Davis' great character there. He's like, "Okay, kid, here you go. Here's the ball.
15:25
Yes, I'm a professional basketball player, but sure, you seem very, uh, very intent on getting the basketball here."
15:30
So Hubert Davis, um, first year, they get all the way to the championship game, and you will remember, and this is for, for some North Carolina fans, I don't think all, but the, the Duke-hating North Carolina fans, some people say besides the national championships for UNC, the two wins over Duke that year might be the biggest in Carolina history.
15:54
They beat Coach K in the final game at Cameron, right? And they beat Duke in the semis, in the Final Four. So Hubert Davis will always have that. You can never take that away from him. But let's be honest. He's a, uh,
16:10
he's a guy who loves the institution, Christian guy. He took that job because he wanted to just
16:18
go to this institution he loved and be the best, uh, molder of young minds that he could be, and in the end, the game changed.
16:25
And I think if Caleb Wilson is still playing, he's not hurt, maybe we don't, aren't having this conversation yet. Maybe it, I don't know, maybe if they lose in the Sweet 16, we are again next week.
16:34
Um, but did the game kinda change? And North Carolina just figured, you know, if we're ever gonna compete at the level, 'cause, 'cause it's not enough for Carolina to get to the tournament, right?
16:42
They gotta compete for the title, and so they're moving on because Hubert Davis' biggest thing was he was resistant to having a GM, and that ain't college sports anymore. Yeah. So great dude.
16:54
Not sure, you know, you win 70% of your games and you get to a final,
17:00
it's, it's, it, what did he do that was really wrong except for, hey, man, you got bounced in the first round a couple years in a row, and that just doesn't fly in, in Chapel Hill, so.
17:09
There was one tweet that caught my eye on this, uh, yesterday, Gil, 'cause I've been wondering about this guy and the job that he's had for a long time now.
17:16
Uh, this is from Jake Crowley, Joe Crowley, uh, reporting, uh, yesterday that there is growing momentum that Billy Donovan- Yeah... will be leaving the Bulls at the end of the season.
17:26
That, that's the name being bandied about the most to replace. They're definitely going out of house, let's put it that way. For an institution that always went in-house.
17:32
He's the short shot at Cal State right now plus 450. Yeah, if you weren't in Nevada. Well, you can bet it next- Dude... you can bet it next week in Nevada. Don't even get me started. Eh, just wait 10 days.
17:41
You'll be fine. Ladies and gentlemen, Paul Sporer joins us because, again, a numbers investigation found out that the baseball season begins tonight at Oracle Park in San Francisco, the Giants and the Yankees.
17:51
Logan Webb, Max Fried. Paul joins us now from Austin, Texas, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at Sporer, S-P-O-R-E-R. Of course, FanGraphs his main gig.
18:01
Sleeper and The Bus is the podcast. Paul, good morning. Happy opening day or opening night, I should say. Good morning. It is indeed opening night on Netflix for some reason. [laughs] Are you- 2026.
18:16
[laughs] Is your Netflix account ready to go? Is it okay? Can you get on there? Sadly, just for that, yeah. Yeah. I, I'm the idiot who keeps all of them for the one or five games to watch. It's disgusting, dude. It's so-
18:29
This is the, uh, the tennis equivalent, you know, people do for the, the Australian Open. People get ESPN+ and then- Yeah... then they just bounce right out of it afterwards. Same thing.
18:37
Oh, between, between Cox and the streaming services, they are- Yeah... just stealing money from me every day. Yeah. Yeah. Let's start with tonight's- I, I mean- I'm sorry... so much worse than cable used to be.
18:45
No, no, I, I go on a rant way too much about it. Oh, so much. Let's go. Dude. Yeah, yeah. Totally. I miss it so much, just to have it right... Anyway, Yankees minus 118 tonight with the total at seven.
18:55
Any, any thoughts on, on the bet here? Hmm. I mean, I, I like Webb as a live dog o- on an opening day.
19:02
Obviously, we don't know how anyone's necessarily looked, and you can see them in spring, but once, uh, you know, once you turn the lights on for real, it's different.
19:10
Yeah, I mean, I, I think if I'm going anywhere on that, it is Giants. Obviously, it's just so wide open right now. You don't have great leans one way or the other, but give me a legit ace.
19:19
Going against another one, by the way. I love Max Fried. Mm-hmm. But give me a legit ace at home there if I'm, if I'm gonna make a play on, on tonight, for sure.
19:25
Do you like or dislike my Logan Webb most wins in Major League Baseball bet at, at 15 to 1 this year? I've got no problems with that, right? Yeah.
19:35
Because he, again, he is a true workhorse ace that is seen as somebody who's ready to go, you know, seven every night.
19:41
I know that's not like old school, where you go nine every time, but, like, in today's game, somebody who sets out with, like, seven as kind of the baseline the way he does, that's huge. You know?
19:51
And he, and he's always getting past that fifth pretty consistently, outside of maybe a handful of starts each year when everyone gets bombed out. Uh, so that puts Webb in position all the time.
20:00
It's a pretty competent offense. Uh, you know, they got some star talent, too. It's not just kind of, like, decent guys up and down. And, you know, the bullpen is all right.
20:08
I don't know about the bridge to Walker, but I kind of believe in Ryan Walker's mechanical change that's got, hopefully got him back to pre-25 levels. So that should be able to close out the win.
20:16
So I really don't mind that for Webb. I- if you're gonna go off the board from, like, the obvious guys, he's absolutely someone to go toward. Yeah, for those who are like, "Is that just a homer pick for me?" No.
20:26
Uh, 2023- Mm-hmm... what, what, what has plagued Logan Webb is this unbelievable lack of run support, uh, through the years. Worst run support in all of Major League Baseball in 2023, 24th worst in 2024, 25th...
20:39
Uh, excuse me, uh, 40th worst in 2025 overall of Major League Baseball among qualified starters.
20:45
And with each of that incremental drop, or incremental increase I should say, in run support, if you will, his wins have ticked up correspondingly. Mm-hmm.
20:54
And so you're just sort of betting on a, can this be a year where he actually gets some decent run support? So that's the, that's really the bet. Um, what about...
21:03
Let me, let, let's just sort of get the broad headline from you.
21:05
At the end of the baseball season, what's gonna be the headline or headlines that here, as we sit here on March 25th, opening night day, if you will, we would have n- we would just be startled by? Hmm.
21:20
Boy, that, that's a good one, 'cause I, I don't really know, 'cause I think ABS is gonna be huge, but people are expecting that, right? The automated balls and strike system.
21:27
So I think that that's gonna be something that is, is pretty game-changing, but again, I think that's more expected. I don't know, 'cause I don't have, like, a ton of upset playoff teams either.
21:37
I, I, I don't have it, like, full chalk, but I think, you know, we'll, we'll see some teams rise up. Like, I don't have the Yankees winning the division. I got the Red Sox, so that's not gonna- Hmm... go crazy.
21:46
And so I, I, I don't know that there's gonna be one over...
21:49
There's gonna be players who do it, but figuring out who, you know, is the George Springer of this year, a guy in his mid-30s who looks kind of like he's in the descent, comes out and has an MVP-type season, I don't exactly know who that's gonna be.
22:01
So I'm not exactly sure what's gonna revolutionize things. Like I said, I keep coming back to the ABS, but we are expecting that to make a difference.
22:09
A- a- if you are on the fence about how big that's gonna be, I think it's gonna be massive, though. Who are your seven team- excuse me, your six teams in both the American League and National League to make the playoffs?
22:20
Mariners, Tigers, Red Sox winning their divisions, with, uh, Yankees, Orioles, and Astros, uh, wild cards. Hmm. Okay. And then Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies,
22:37
Mets, Padres, Pirates. That's probably my big- Ooh... that's my big sneak one there. Yeah. Okay. Pirates. Wow. Okay, so, so- So, yeah... interesting.
22:46
So in the, in the East, you had the Mets and the Phillies, but nobody else. No Braves in there. Okay, so- No, they're, they're so cooked. Okay. I'm sorry. They're- [laughs] Like, it's just so hard. Okay.
22:57
They just keep getting a body blow every day. It's already just like last year with the injuries. Now Strider's on the IL. They lost Schwarmbach. They lost their backup.
23:06
You know, José Suárez is in the rotation right now. I like Didier Fuentes a lot, and he did make the team. T- young 21-year-old upstart, but he's, like, their next guy up right now.
23:14
They have no depth on the pitching side. They still have a lot of offensive talent, but I just don't think they got enough juice. I g- I like Miami better than, uh, than Atlanta. Interesting.
23:23
And you went Cubs, and the other playoff team from the Central was the Pirates, not the Brewers. Wow. Yeah. When will we learn, Paul- A little, a little sneaky one... about the Brewers?
23:32
We all, this always seems to happen. The- they're really good, and they're- Yeah... gonna make the playoffs, but I wanted to get a, get a little cute one going with Pirates. I like it. It's adorable. Um, we'll come back.
23:40
More with Paul Spor. Major League Baseball. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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24:08
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24:17
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24:22
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24:32
That's the point of all that. Sign up now at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. We got tweets. Beating the book. Um, this is from Chance Copperpotter says, "I DM'd you about this Kelly a while back.
24:45
No way OKC wins the chip And it'll bring back our SuperSonics. I'm gonna be worthless at the, uh, Baking Factory today, guys. Is it okay today to cry at work? That's awesome. If I'm the boss.
24:57
Cha- Chance is such the, a, a great example of a great fan, right? Yeah. And it's just, it's been Seattle with him from day one. I, I know, uh, yeah, I know he wor- works at a bakery, and he's just- Yeah...
25:08
just celebrating. I, I am so ap- I, I'm so happy for people in Seattle. How- I really am. Okay. I, it's just, it's... And I can't imagine.
25:17
Like I went through the Daniel Snyder thing, 25 years of having your team held hostage. That was, that was just joyous- Mm-hmm... when, when it was over. 'Cause e- I thought it was a lifetime sentence. We all did.
25:30
But to have your team removed a la, you know, Baltimore Colts, a la Cleveland Browns, right, that kind of thing. So good on you S- Seattle SuperSonics fans. St. Louis Rams.
25:42
Uh- The, uh, the one I heard yesterday, love this idea. I, I don't know how Chance feels about it and other Seattle people.
25:49
I love the idea, though, of what, what if Kevin Durant, that his farewell tour was at one, one more, one last year in Seattle. One last year. That would be pretty cool.
25:57
Seeing him in that Sonics uniform is always like, "Oh, wow." Yeah. Forgot about that. Uh, Minky Monkey Man, "World class radio pod transition from Gil. First world prob- first world problems. Let's go country clubbing."
26:08
[laughs] Best in the business with staying on A&G brand. The bougiest show you can find, that's for sure. Yay. John Blom, I'd love to read your tweet, but I don't think I can. Let's just put it this way.
26:19
It has to do with your Cox Cable bill. Oh, okay. Uh, Johnny Wanderer, he says, "Highly recommend the IPTV to all soccer fans in the UK. Full Sky Sports, Premier League, League One, La Liga, no buffering."
26:37
IPTV, Kelly, if you want the hack. Spence, "New Las Vegas NBA team name should be Las Vegas Degenerates," he says.
26:44
James Fessler, "Once the NBA officially announces the LeBron James ownership group getting the 2028-29 Las Vegas team, there will be zero issues getting celebrity courtside participation.
26:56
Next year's retirement tour gonna double as a player scouting opportunity." I believe LeBron is out of it. Yeah, think so. William Wagers, "The Kings should just get out of Sacramento and move to Vegas.
27:11
Solves the team, uh, home is- uh, name issue, and lighting the beam just feels like it belongs in Vegas." Yeah, it does. We light the beam at the, uh, Luxor every night here. Yeah. And on and on with the tweets.
27:24
We'll get to more. Will Hill kind enough to join us for a second segment, @notthewillhill on Twitter, two Es on the the. Willie, uh, what are you more excited for, baseball tonight or the Sweet 16 tomorrow? The Sweet 16.
27:37
Baseball still feels a little bit early. I think we're all just conditioned to, like, be ex- excited for certain things certain times of the year. And s- to me, it's still college basketball.
27:46
Uh, I love having baseball back, and the fact that it's back every day is great. It's just, it feels a little early. But Sweet 16, not by a lot, but, but Sweet 16 would be the answer.
27:53
All right, uh, rather than go game by game, well, I mean, you have bets on six of these eight. Uh, let's start with, in, in no particular order, well, I'll just do 'em as we see them on the screen here.
28:04
You've got Arizona laying seven and a half versus Arkansas. You're not buying into the, uh, Razorbacks love here.
28:11
No, and this would be my favorite, I believe, of the Sweet 16 matchups, although there's some other ones I, I really like here.
28:17
But I just think Arkansas wants to play Arizona's game, and Arizona just plays it better, and this has been a, a bit of a hurdle here for, for Arizona and Tommy Lloyd.
28:26
But I, I think a lot of the, the hesitation to really trust Arizona has just been past discretions where, you know, they lost to, uh, to Princeton, and they had some trip ups in this round before.
28:37
Uh, I, I think they're really good. And again, I just think from a matchup standpoint, Arkansas wants to run. They wanna play at the rim. They wanna go, go, go. Arizona does that and does that better.
28:47
And I, I think people are getting a little bit colored here on Arkansas with their recent success. But the schedule's been pretty easy. They drew Ole Miss in the conference tournament. That game went to overtime.
28:57
They drew Oklahoma. And, you know, y- you look back, it wasn't that long ago they played Florida at the end of the regular season, and that to me is a pretty apt comparison for what they're gonna see in Arizona.
29:07
And Florida beat them like a drum. Florida beat them by about 45 points. So I think Arizona here, this is actually a little cheap here laying the seven and a half. I think Arizona rolls.
29:16
Brief aside before we continue your picks. Darius Acuff Jr., a lot of people stumping for him. Hey, you gotta make the bet on him being the number one pick in the draft. Who would you draft? You're an NBA GM.
29:25
Let's say you had needs everywhere. Who's your guy? Oof. I guess Debansa. But man, I, he, he could always do the cop out. Oh, it depends what my team needs, what, what we need.
29:35
All of these teams need everything because it's Nets, the Kings, it's the Wizards. Yeah. I wouldn't mind Boozer. I guess I'd go with Debansa, but boy, I, I don't think you can go wrong here.
29:43
And I've heard those reports too that the Kings are enamored with Darius Acuff. I don't know Darius Acuff personally, but I would not wish that upon anyone, that the Kings are enamored with him.
29:52
Man, that would just, uh- [laughs]... that, you know that would not work out. Uh, AJ Debansa, by the way, minus 125 to go number one.
29:57
Darren Peterson, despite his, uh, performance the other day, plus 160 still to go number one. Cam Boozer, five to one. Acuff Jr. still at 125 to one. Caleb Wilson even further out at 150 to one.
30:10
All right, back to your plays. Uh, let's go to the next one. Texas and Purdue, what did you do with this? I like Texas plus seven and a half here.
30:20
I think this game will be probably played at a, a slow pace here, which is, uh, why I liked Miami the other day. I thought Miami w- would keep it close.
30:28
And getting eight and a half, which is a good number, four point game with 50 seconds left, or fif- 50 something seconds left, thought I was in good shape there. I was not in good shape.
30:36
It took a, a confluence of events to, to get Purdue to the window. But I'm going back with fading Purdue. I just think Texas, they'll play slow. They really get to the foul line at, at a high rate here.
30:45
Miller's, uh, an underrated, a good tournament coach here. Seven and a half is a lot of points. I know Purdue Uh, ha- has been good on these neutral courts here.
30:53
But I, I think the seven and a half to me, that's, that's the key number too, because at seven you might sub foul and you get the full third possession or, or a third possession.
31:00
So I, I'm taking the points here with Texas. Texas-Purdue and, uh, Arkansas-Arizona both tomorrow night. Also tomorrow, Iowa-Nebraska, with Nebraska a one-and-a-half point favorite.
31:10
It's the most closely lined of all the games, and this is the sm- this is the lowest total of all the games. Yeah. I have a, uh, a food coma just looking at this game- [laughs]...
31:20
thinking about Black Friday, usually watching these teams play in, in college football. Uh, I talked about this with you Sunday night into Monday when this line came out.
31:28
I thought under 134, under 134 and a half was just too high. I'm seeing DraftKings now at 131, 131 and a half. I, I don't love getting three points, the worse the number if you're playing it now.
31:39
But directionally, I still think this is an under. I know both teams will shoot a lot of threes, which is dangerous for an under, but you're playing in the Rockets arena there. That's an NBA arena.
31:48
That might affect the sight lines. Both teams play super slow. These teams played twice already. One of the games was 57-52.
31:55
The other game went way over this total, but that game went to overtime and that was a game where both teams hit double-digit threes and both shot 37% from three. So ugly, kind of low scoring.
32:06
I think the winner gets to 60. Even though it's moved a little bit, I would still look towards the under there, Iowa-Nebraska.
32:12
I, I was hoping to get Iowa plus some points, but at one and a half, I, I just feel like, uh, I- Iowa's kind of the flavor of the week here. I'm probably gonna pass on the sides. Okay.
32:20
And you're also passing on the, uh, the Illinois-Houston game tomorrow night. Let's go to Friday. Michigan State and UConn in DC with the Huskies, your Huskies, I guess, regionally anyway, favored by one and a half.
32:34
Yeah, and it's amazing. UConn and Michigan State, as much as these teams have been around the tournament the last 25, 30 years, they really haven't played much in the tournament.
32:41
They had the one Elite Eight game back in 2014. But other than that they've, they've somehow avoided each other for the most part, which is interesting. I like UConn.
32:48
I just think they have a different gear in the tournament, a different gear once they get out of conference play. I know they're hard to trust. I know it's, you know, what, what version of UConn are you getting?
32:56
But betting on Hurley when all you have to do is basically win the game I think is a good bet here. So I think they get it done.
33:02
I think their offense for teams that don't see them very often is still very hard to prepare for, so I will advance the Huskies. And it's interesting, I bet them 15 to 1 before the season to win it all.
33:12
Here they are in the Sweet 16, and you can almost get double that number. [laughs] There's like 25, 26 to 1 out there. I know.
33:17
So, uh, i- if you just had nothing right now and you had a free bet to use, I, boy, there, there's worse ways to use it than UConn- Yeah... 25, 26 to 1. I'm the same way. I have a 16 to 1, same boat.
33:27
Winner of that game, of course, plays the winner of the Duke-St. John's game famously. Duke favored by a touchdown, total 142. I'm with everybody else here. I can't find one person that likes Duke.
33:37
All of us that were betting against St. John's last week with Northern Iowa, we're all jumping on the bandwagon here taking St. John's, but I think it's the right side.
33:44
Give me Patino with all that prep time, with all those points. Dylan Mitchell I think can guard Boozer one-on-one, which makes everyone else just a little bit ordinary here.
33:53
I don't buy this idea that Kaleb Foster's gonna play or be at 100%. Uh, I think St. John's keeps it close. I would not be surprised if they pulled the upset.
34:00
I'm a little worried that everybody in the world seems to be on it. Yeah. But I, I'm not laying the points here. Give me St. John's plus the points.
34:05
And then finally, late night in the Midwest, uh, Tennessee and Iowa State. Cyclones favored by four and a half, total 138 and a half. Yeah, I like Tennessee. I think they can hang here.
34:15
Elite rebounding team, elite offensive rebounding team, and if this game plays according to spread, remember, Iowa State's a terrible free throw shooting team. Might be hard for them to salt the game away.
34:24
So I think Tennessee hangs around and covers the four and a half. Willie, always great seeing you, man. Baseball, Sweet 16, it's kind of awesome. Appreciate you guys. Thanks. Will Hill, everybody.
34:35
Yeah, not the Will Hill. Shoulda Bet Moore is the name of his podcast. He does it three times a week. I think Monday, Wednesday, Friday. I think he's pretty, uh, sacred on that. Coming back, NFL draft next.
34:47
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35:49
Joe Sheehan, who's gonna be on the show tomorrow, talk baseball with us. Yes, he will be. How about that? Joe Sheehan from the Joe Sheehan newsletter.
35:55
He says, "Catching up on the show," he says, uh, from yesterday, says, "The NIT scheduling drove me nuts, and I think it is entirely about ESPN going in on the women's tournament.
36:05
The slots that used to go to the NIT go to them. Brutal scheduling."
36:10
Joe Sheehan, by the way, for anybody who has been a longtime reader of his newsletter, Baseball Daily newsletter, starting a gaming newsletter, uh, this year- Oh... with bets. Really? Yes. Oh, I did not know that. Yes.
36:21
It just started, uh, just started it up here, I believe, last week. So yeah, I've got a couple of them. Cody- Great stuff... Cody Bets Football, Cody Holloway, says, "Still miss my Atlanta Thrashers."
36:32
What league was that? The NHL, right? [laughs] NHL, right. [laughs] Was it? Yeah. I think so. What happened, what happened to the Atlanta Flames? Atlanta Thrashers? That wasn't the NHL, was it? Yeah. 99 to 2011.
36:47
Oh, God, I don't even remember that. I'm an Atlanta Flames guy that went to Calgary. You know who played for the Atlanta Flames? Jim Craig, 1980 goaltender. Really?
36:54
Luke Reilly: "DraftKings also has monthly over-unders for everybody." And most wins in each division by April 30th. They got those, too. And Steve the Proxy, "I use an IPTV for certain sports like blacked-out MLB games.
37:08
Cost efficient, absolutely. Biggest issue, you're minimum of three to four pitches behind" Oh, no. "So Twitter already told me who hit the home run.
37:14
I've watched the replay on my phone and, uh, one to two pitches later it airs on my TV. Brutal for in-play wagering." Yeah, you don't want that. And, uh, Chance Copperpot, "You mentioned your St.
37:23
Louis friend about never watching the NFL again. I didn't watch the NBA for a decade because of how we were treated as fans and how underhanded David Stern was in the process of the Sonics leaving.
37:32
I needed to learn new rules." Sonics, you're getting your team back, or Seattle, you're getting your team back. The Thrashers became the Winnipeg Jets, which, uh, f- feels a little bit more appropriate.
37:42
Thrashers became the Winnipeg Jets, the second iteration of the Jets, if I'm not mistaken. Yes? That it? Yes. Think so. Man, you are really testing my hockey history knowledge here, okay?
37:51
And by testing his knowledge, I mean he's Googling away. Googling away. No, I think you're right. I think I'm right. I'm answering I think you're right before- Yeah... I Google. That's correct. You're on record.
37:59
Ladies and gentlemen, he's already annoyed because I read tweets during his segment. Yeah. He is a big-time figure in the industry.
38:05
It's Todd Wishnev, star of Wishnev Wednesdays, from Pittsburgh, PA, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Toddy, good morning to you. I was hoping we could do five minutes on where the Quebec Nordiques are.
38:18
[laughs] Maybe we will. Where in the world? Now that you mention it. Maybe we will. Are you a big hockey- Also- Yeah... the Billiken, did you know that...
38:27
I don't know what this whole Gillikin thing is that they're doing on the Discord now, but- Yeah, that's good... do you know what a Billiken is? Oh, you, you are- Here it is. Here.
38:33
Did you ever look- No Literally Gillikin- We, we haven't, we haven't showed it. This is the St. Louis Billiken, but with luck. A Billiken- Yeah...
38:38
is a good luck s- a mythical good luck figure invented in 1908 by Missouri art teacher Florence Pretz, designed to represent things as they ought to be.
38:47
It is known for its mischievous smile, pointed head, and chubby belly. [laughs] Fitting. Check. Tracks. And it is most famous as the mascot for St. Louis University. So there you go on the Billiken or the Gillikin.
39:00
There you go. There's my pointed head right here. There it is from, uh- This is great... fromxxachillesxxx. That's m- that's the Billiken as the Gillikin. That is well done. Well done.
39:08
Look at, look at the scruff, the beard scruff. That's awesome. Way to go, ChatGPT, courtesy ofxxachillesxxx, pointing in the right direction. Nothing better than the Wishnev Wednesdays logo. Isn't that true?
39:18
But you know what? I learned that Billiken thing this year, too, Todd, a- and I... Randomly, Todd's like the seventh person I've heard read it now, too. And, like, a- and bravo on St. Louis. It's an awesome nickname.
39:28
Just made one up, basically. Todd, the b- the biggest thing that- And a few moments on the Muskegon Lumberjacks, the minor league, uh, hockey team for the Pittsburgh Penguins for many years.
39:37
Let's talk about that for a little bit. Todd, uh, baseball season starts tonight. Are you going to do a Discord on that, or do you not do a Discord on baseball?
39:47
Well, being as I've been losing in baseball the last couple of years, I'm not sure that I'll be giving out my baseball picks unless they want them. Although, I was just...
39:57
It's interesting that you said that, 'cause I was just playing around with Koushi and with Novig to see what the differences in the lines are in baseball versus, you know, what we've been used to now that they've taken away the dime line, they've taken away all these...
40:10
You know, they've made ridiculous, you know, splits in this baseball nonsense. Um, so, you know, maybe, you know, when the lines are minus 119, plus 115, maybe I can win at baseball. So who knows? Mm-hmm. Yeah.
40:24
Um, college basketball, I just wanna point this out, too, 'cause I'm sure this wasn't lost on you, Todd has a plus 170 unit baseball season. Excuse me, uh, college basketball season. 180. 180? Good start. Pardon me. 180.
40:37
Let's get it correct. Pardon me. You're right. Gillikin. He's a, he's a big deal in the industry. Yeah.
40:41
Todd, Todd Wishnev, plus 180, uh, in college basketball, and yet we did our brackets, right, on the Megapod, and it was just such a lesson in how different real betting is versus just doing some bracket, 'cause you got crushed on the bracket, right?
40:57
Well, yeah, I mean, it's, it's, it's a bracket. You know, [laughs] you're not, you're not expected to get the bracket right. I mean, Wisconsin got knocked off, you know? Yeah.
41:04
If they survive that game, maybe they still are, are going. I mean, I did know that whoever was winning NC State, Texas was gonna beat BYU, was gonna beat Gonzaga, so that did happen. Yes.
41:14
It just was the wrong, the wrong team. So, you know, you gotta have some luck in, in the, uh, in the bracket thing. You know, it's not just like betting, you know, first half over.
41:23
[laughs] It's, it's very, very, much, much more- Tad... luck involved, obviously. He knew what was gonna happen, Kelly. It was just the wrong team.
41:31
So if you ha- now- Well, no, I, my whole point- I know I'm just playing... but my, my whole point of that was I wanted to bet against those teams in the bracket- I know...
41:38
and I didn't really have an opinion on NC State, Texas, so I just picked NC State. Ah. This is wrong. Mm-hmm. It's just a joke, Todd. Just a joke. So if we d- if we- You can make jokes...
41:46
if we, if we fill out the bracket- Your, your listeners don't understand them. [laughs] That's the... My listeners understand, believe me. All right.
41:53
Round of 16, Sweet 16, who do you believe now, as we look at the, the bracket as currently constituted, who do you think gets to the Final Four championship game and wins it? I mean, it's just so hard. I mean, you got...
42:09
[laughs] It just is, is unbelievably hard. I mean, look, Arkansas is live in my opinion. You got Tommy Lloyd as the coach of Arizona. We know his track record is to somehow find a way to mess it up.
42:23
Uh, and this Acuff is really amazing. Now, the, look, Arizona's unbelievable, so, you know, who knows?
42:30
I, I, I would think if you want, like, kind of a, uh, long shot team, Arkansas looks good to me with the best guard in the tournament. Um, you know, I wouldn't be shocked if Texas beat Purdue.
42:42
Uh, you know, Purdue had Lawyer, Fletcher Lawyer making every three-pointer in the last game. Is that gonna happen every game? I don't know.
42:51
Uh, you know, Michigan, Alabama, I hate Alabama, but if Alabama makes their threes, any b- they, they can beat any team in the tournament. That's what's so crazy, if they make their threes.
43:01
Uh, you know, Michigan Obviously a gigantic team. I don't think Iowa State has enough or Tennessee has enough.
43:09
Uh, on the other side, Michigan State, UConn, it's kind of like a mirror, two amazing coaches, two teams that are gonna defend. To me, St.
43:18
John's looks like the most obvious, uh, pick tonight, but that's bad 'cause I don't like obvious when it's, you know, that... What are they still getting, plus six and a half or something?
43:27
Uh, you know, Duke has, has, has struggled. I, I don't think Duke's gonna make it, to be honest. I don't know who's gonna take 'em out, but they do not look very strong to me.
43:36
Uh, Iowa, Nebraska, I don't know, flip a coin there. And Illinois, Houston gonna be very interesting because Houston is not Houston like usual. I've said this a number of times. Usually...
43:48
Look, they still have a great defense, but it's not to the level of, you know, the past Houston teams.
43:54
So Illinois with all that talent could take out, but, you know, Illinois is the kind of team, it's kind of almost like Arizona light. They're the kind of team that could just lay a big egg and go bye, you know?
44:04
So, [laughs] boy, you know, I know everyone was like, "Oh, it's all chalk, chalk, chalk." Yeah, it is all chalk, but once you get down here, it's a real crapshoot. Is there...
44:13
I know you're an in-game guy and you, and you're, you're not one to do pre-flop. Is there a spread or a total, though, pre-flop that did catch your eye at any of these games?
44:22
Um, let's Thursday- I mean, I did li- I did like St. John. Yeah. I liked St. John's, but I just, it just seems so obvious to me, uh- Everybody... you know, to bet St. John. Everybody loves St. John.
44:33
I, I, I don't like when... Yeah... I don't like when everybody [laughs] likes St. John's. That scares the hell out of me.
44:38
Um, you know, Texas maybe first half against Purdue would, would kind of interest me maybe a little bit. Um, you know, first, uh, first half there.
44:48
Uh, you know, I don't want these, these full game numbers because, you know, what happens if you play Texas, they hang in the entire game, then they're down four late- Yeah...
44:57
and then the fouls start and they lose the, the spread. So I'd much rather take them first half than, um, you know, full game. Um, otherwise, I don't know, Iowa State minus four sounds a little bit high. Yeah.
45:11
Just a little bit high there. [laughs] Tennessee's not that bad. Four points, that sounds like a lot. I agree with all. What could possibly go wrong, Toddy? What could possibly go wrong?
45:23
Oh, yeah, I mean, I'm sure it'll all go wrong. It could all go wrong. Um- You know, that's why I like to bet it in-game. I'm playing parlay and tennis. Give us a line today. What's the line? Like, on the first set?
45:33
[laughs] Just the match itself. Oh, the match itself I'd put you at, uh, minus 235. There it is. Todd Wisniewski. Wisniewski Wednesdays. Thank you, Toddy. Wait. Appreciate it.
45:43
Cal State, I have you, on Cal State you're minus 220. [laughs] T Wisniewski coming back.
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