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Mar 26, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | March 26, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | March 26, 2025
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57:46
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Transcript
0:00
Eczema isn't always obvious, but it's real, and so is the relief from EVLISS. After an initial dosing phase of 16 weeks, about four in 10 people taking EVLISS achieved itch relief and clear or almost clear skin.
0:14
And most of those people maintained skin that's still more clear at one year with monthly dosing.
0:18
EVLISS, lebrikizumab-lbkz, a 250 milligram per two milliliter injection, is a prescription medicine used to treat adults and children 12 years of age and older who weigh at least 88 pounds or 40 kilograms with moderate to severe eczema, also called atopic dermatitis, that is not well controlled with prescription therapies used on the skin, or topicals, or who cannot use topical therapies.
0:36
EVLISS can be used with or without topical corticosteroids. Don't use if you're allergic to EVLISS. Allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. Eye problems can occur.
0:43
Tell your doctor if you have new or worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with EVLISS. Before starting EVLISS, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection.
0:51
Searching for real relief? Ask your doctor about EVLISS and visit evliss.lilly.com or call 1-800-Lilly-RX or 1-800-545-5979. What's up, everyone? Julie Swift-Banks here along with former NHL player Nate Thompson.
1:05
We're doing a new podcast together. Here we go. The name? Energy Line with Nate and JSB. Each week we'll get together and talk about hockey, life. All topics are fair game, right? Exactly.
1:17
And you'll never know who will drop by to join us. Julie is pretty well-connected. She has text threads going that you wouldn't believe.
1:24
Listen to Energy Line with Nate and JSB on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. [upbeat music] This is Mel Reid, LPGA Tour winner and six-time Ladies European Tour winner. And Kira K.
1:37
Dixon, NBC Sports reporter and host. And we've got a new podcast, Quiet Please with Mel- And Kira.
1:44
We are bringing you spicy takes on sports and pop culture, some interviews with incredible people who have figured out how to make golf their superpower.
1:51
An iHeartWomen's sports production in partnership with Deep Blue Sports and Entertainment. You can find us on iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by e.l.f.
1:59
Beauty, founding partner of iHeartWomen's Sports. Did you know that 70% of people get hired at companies where they already have a connection?
2:08
I'm Andrew Seaman, LinkedIn's editor-at-large for jobs and career development, and on my podcast, Get Hired, I bring you all the information you need to, well, get hired.
2:18
Landing a job may be tough, but Get Hired is here for you every step of the way with advice on resumes, networking, negotiation, and so much more.
2:26
Listen to Get Hired with Andrew Seaman on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you like to listen. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics.
2:37
This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you. This is Numbers Game at VSiN, V Sports Betting Network, vsin.com, Game+, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158.
2:50
Gil Alexander, my little buddy Kelly Bidlin, everybody, producer number nine. Yo, yo. So much more than a producer. Oh, want no wave today? Just want yo, yo? Okay. There you go. Well, I got, I got tennis bets, Statter.
3:00
Oh, do you guys have a bet beforehand? We, we, we may. Hey, we work at a betting network. There's a lot of side bets that go on behind the scenes around here. Oh.
3:07
I was looking for action today on whether or not, on a yes/no price, if Gil Alexander was gonna send me tennis bets because it was getting late. Yeah.
3:14
I hadn't gotten anything from you, but we're late enough in the tournament that it's possible for you to not have any bets. That's correct. I do have one. By the way, let me just say this again.
3:22
This is, uh, this ain't your mom and dad's hard court season. Um, not the, not the hard court season we've been accustomed to. Three p- three dogs yesterday, all three with great CLV. All three didn't get home.
3:33
[laughs] That's how it's been. It's been the year of, again, I'm a dog bettor- Right...
3:38
and a short favorite bettor, and unless it's a massive, like, beat Carlitos kind of thing, uh, or beat Coco kind of thing, which I don't usually bet on, the numbers won't take me there, um, those are the only ones that are getting home, and the, and the standard dogs that I play that usually get home aren't.
3:54
And so, um, it's been a favorites kind of season. I do have one today, Francisco Cerundolo. Francisco Cerundolo plus 102, um, today at, uh, in Miami. This is, uh, the...
4:07
What is this, the first half or the second half, I should say, of the round of 16? I've already lost track. Where there are more- Yeah, 'cause there's ra- it's been raining, right?
4:15
The rain- Wait, no, no, no, the rain is fine, but it's the- Oh... second half of the semis. This is the quarters. This is the quarters, pardon me, of the, uh, of the men's side. Do I have that right? Yes, I think I do.
4:24
Anyway, it's, it's, uh, Cerundo- Cerundolo today plus 102 over Grigor Dimitrov. Um, and that is at vsin.com/picks. Again, for all subscribers, every host, every guest, um, every sport for subscribers, vsin.com/picks.
4:38
Gave that out last night, um, and we'll see if that's in range here this morning. I do have the, uh, the Swiatek quarter, though, right?
4:45
That's, uh, she's minus 1,000 to win her, uh, quarterfinal match today against Alexandra Ayala, who I hated myself for not betting against Ostapenko. Didn't hate myself against her other one, against, uh, Maddie Keys.
4:58
But, um, Iga Swiatek, who w- I don't know why we didn't put on the graphic, but I've mentioned at the time, you know, it's mathematically minus 115 to win her quarter is not, like, mathematically sound. I got it.
5:10
But you bet it auto, um... You bet it auto, by the way, Cerundolo is, uh, plus 102, um, exactly now, so you can get the same price. Uh, Iga, if you al- you know, if you, if you are like, "Why does he always bet on Iga?"
5:23
Okay, if you don't believe in terms of her winning a tournament, but quarters, she has played in 69... She has played in 70 tournaments since, uh, from the beginning, when she won the French Open in 2020.
5:36
That was the first... Let, let's start there. That's the first of 70 tournaments that she's, she's played since. Okay. She has won 22 titles. Mm-hmm. She's gotten to the finals three other times.
5:45
So that's 25 out of 70 she w- she got to the finals. 22 of them she won. She got to additional 15 semifinals, so- So she's 22 and three in finals? Correct. Wow. So she's... And, but 15 other semifinals.
5:58
So out of the 70 tournaments since that French Open title in 2020, she has won her quarter 40 of those times. That's 57%. That's pretty good. She's won her quarter
6:10
She has gotten to the quarterfinals seven additional times. Shows she's, she's played for the quarter 67% of the time. Jeez. I don't know if you know, that's two out of three tournaments.
6:21
And that's even with this, quote unquote, you know, period of time where she's not playing as well according to some, right?
6:29
So 67% of the time she's, she's played for the quarter, including today, where she's minus 1,000. We have her at minus 150. Just a last thing on this. Since 2022, she has not won her quarter a grand total of five times.
6:43
You can count them on one hand. Wow. It's all... So if, if you wonder why I just bet it auto minus 115 and just walk away, even though it's not mathematically sound necessarily, it's, it's not even worth doing the math.
6:55
Yeah. Well, the, uh, uh, this is like the Paul Carra-Kelly system play today of the, uh, tennis player I've heard of [laughs] for s- who, who is she playing today? Uh, Alexandra Eala, a Filipina. No idea. Yeah.
7:09
Uh, who, who's been awesome, who's best part of her career. Anyway, didn't plan on starting with tennis, but since you had a side bet, there you go. Uh, Russell Wilson signed by the Giants. Ugh.
7:18
Can we talk about this for a second? Because I find this fascinating now. We are- So sad... by the way, by the way, we're gonna get to baseball.
7:25
Mark Borchardt, a base winner, has finally shown up with his season-long baseballs today. We've had, uh, Sporer on. We even had Joe Peta on. Mark Borchardt, base winner, on today on the show.
7:34
We'll talk golf with Kelly Houston, open preview. Zach Cohen on the Sweet 16. Matty Cox will join us here momentarily to talk Sweet 16 with us. Uh, Jason Weingarten from Under A Cloud of Smoke later.
7:43
But I wanna start with the Russ- with the Russell Wilson thing because the very [laughs] it says, I saw, "So the Giants sign Russell Wilson," in case you missed it, in case you were trapped under a heavy object.
7:52
This on the heels of them signing Jameis Winston literally moments before that. Okay, not moments, but you get the idea. Um, so now their quarterback room, we love a room, Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, Tommy DeVito.
8:06
Oh, by the way, they also have the third pick in the draft. So pushing this forward to the draft, where we all like bets, and let me just say again with the NFL draft, this is no longer the ATM machine it used to be.
8:16
We can, we can say that now, right? This is no longer something we should assume we're gonna win money on. It used to be a cash cow. It may not necessarily be.
8:25
But the Giants, and I wanna give you three options here, Kelly, and you tell me what's at play here. Option number one, the Giants with the third pick in the draft, they sign Winston and Wilson now.
8:35
They figure they can't trade for Cam Ward. The cost is too prohibitive.
8:41
They're not gonna be able to pull off a trade to number one for Cam Ward, and they feel like the Browns are going to take Shedeur Sanders, so therefore they decided we're gonna sign two veteran quarterbacks, and then with the third pick we'll either go with Travis Hunter or, I don't know, Jaxson Dart- Yeah...
8:55
if they thought something else. So there's two offshoots to, to, to scenario number one. Or Abdul Carter, yeah. Or Abdul Carter, right. Uh, so option one again, they can't trade for one.
9:05
They're convinced the Browns are, are taking Shedeur at number two. Option number two, they figure they can't trade for Ward. The price is too high at number one,
9:13
that the, um, that the Browns are not, they're not convinced the Browns are gonna take Shedeur, but they don't like Shedeur themselves or any other quarterback, so they decided to do this. And then what was option three?
9:26
I already forgot what option three was. Well, option three would be- Oh, option three is, right, option three is they can't trade for Ward at one. Right.
9:34
Um, they don't really know what's gonna happen at two, but it's immaterial to them because they've decided they wanna go into the season with these two veteran quarterbacks and not worry about anything this year.
9:44
Uh, I guess three most likely to me. I, I, I think their thought process is the, I agree with you. I think you, you set it up perfectly with the Cam Ward and tra- trading up for him.
9:54
I think they've accepted that they have no chance of, of getting into that, uh, into that area anymore.
10:01
So now I think they're playing, I, I guess that they're playing the game of we're just gonna take best, best guy available at three, and no matter what the Browns do.
10:10
I'm, I am not ruling out, Gil, that they could still bring in a q- a rookie quarterback though at all. Okay. So th- this, this then generates other questions, which is, okay, if you've decided to...
10:19
First of all, did you tell Jameis you were gonna also sign Russell Wilson? Of course not, 'cause they never treat my guy right, man. [laughs] I'm so upset about this. Okay. That's the first thing.
10:27
Did you tell Jameis you were gonna do this? Did you tell Malik Nabers he lost his Offensive Player of the Year award?
10:31
The second thing, [laughs] second thing is, if you are gonna draft a quarterback, if, if it's Shedeur or Jaxson Dart or whoever after, let's just say Shedeur, you have the opportunity to do so and you do draft him and have the mentorship of the Winston-Wilson administration, what k- what kind of mentorship is that when you have one guy saying it's like, "Oh, you gotta be unlimited," like that's Wilson's biggest contribution, where Winston will be like, "You gotta eat Ws"?
10:56
Like I just don't know how that's gonna work out.
10:59
So it, 'cause the biggest thing of that scenario, the biggest thing of the scenario where you're just, you, you've just decided you're, you don't, you can't trade for Ward.
11:08
You are either convinced the Browns are taking Shedeur or you don't like Shedeur. That then screams the Shane thing, right? Joe Shane, their, their general manager. Yes.
11:16
That just screams back to what we saw with, you know, the, the, what resulted from them signing Daniel Jones, which then begat them letting Saquon go essentially, right?
11:29
Much to the owner's chagrin, much to his ultimate dismay, where he s- said he out loud he was gonna lose sleep, to now you are just, how do we win some football games?
11:39
This is the general manager, you know, his thought bubble. Mm-hmm. How do we win football games where I can keep my job in the short term? Which is horrible for the organization if that is your strategy. You're nodding.
11:51
You think that- It, it, well, it's, it's one of two... yeah, yeah. And we've been talking about this for a while now.
11:55
I don't understand how, if you're the Giants, how you can enter the, enter the off-season, uh, with these two guys in place, coach and, coach and GM, when they're now making moves that make it seem obvious that that is the strategy for them, and it's, like We, we, we brought it up at the time.
12:10
You go out and draft a rookie quarterback, it almost seal, it almost guarantees you more time. The other thing that might guarantee you another year, though, is winning more games than you should, right? Right, right.
12:19
So it's- Which is- I think they're r- putting themself in the situation where I'm not gonna rule out them drafting a quarterback 'cause that could, that plan, let's call it plan A, could still exist of draft a quarterback and they're not gonna fire us 'cause they'll give us time to develop him, or plan B, if our win total is three and a half and we go out and win seven wins- Right...
12:37
maybe it buys us one more year. Right. So maybe that's what they're thinking.
12:40
The other thing is, i- if you're a Giants fan, are you really thinking like, "Well w- that sucks 'cause now we can't tank for Arch Manning 'cause we'll win some games now." Yeah. Right? There's that, too.
12:51
Anyway, for, for all of that is- But, but you hit on... I didn't, I didn't bring it back to what you, you said, and you said it perfectly. You are hurting the future of your franchise- Yes... regardless.
12:59
For your own personal security. For your own personal security. Which is true of many jobs and many industries, if that's the case. Which I don't know if I necessarily blame on them.
13:07
By the way, I don't know the answer to any of that. It's, it's within, something is, is, is true in all of that, and I don't know which option it is.
13:15
Um, the one thing that I'm pretty convinced of, though, is this notion that the Browns would not take a quarterback, I have always pressed against. I, I, they absolutely have to take a quarterback at two, right?
13:27
So I don't, I think it's, I would hope that it's the Giants thinking, "Well, we can't trade for Ward. They are, the Browns are gonna take Shedeur, and therefore we're not interested in a quarterback at three."
13:40
I would hope that's what's at play. Because by the way, the Browns defense wasn't terrible in terms of pressure rate. Right. It was actually pretty good. Why would you add Abdul Carter to that?
13:49
Why, why do- Yeah, some kids around the other day, yeah... you need a quarterback. So you need... I mean, so I hope it's that. I hope for Giants fans [laughs] it's that.
13:56
But as far as our bets, it to me now sounds like it's one, two quarterback, and then Giants are going elsewhere.
14:03
I'll tell you, Gil, with one signing of Russell Wilson, I went from sort of a Giants fan this year to not at all. I wanted Jameis. I wanted to watch Jameis. I wanted to watch him be terrible. It's your guy, FSU.
14:14
Uh, we'll come back. Matty Cox on the Sweet 16 on the other side. It's a numbers game at Feaster. The Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music] Eczema isn't always obvious, but it's real, and so is the relief from Epclys.
14:32
After an initial dosing phase of 16 weeks, about four in 10 people taking Epclys achieved itch relief and clear or almost clear skin, and most of those people maintained skin that's still more clear at one year with monthly dosing.
14:43
Epclys, librikizumab-lbkz, a 250 milligram per two milliliter injection, is a prescription medicine used to treat adults and children 12 years of age and older who weigh at least 88 pounds or 40 kilograms with moderate to severe eczema, also called atopic dermatitis, that is not well controlled with prescription therapies used on the skin, or topicals, or who cannot use topical therapies.
15:00
Epclys can be used with or without topical corticosteroids. Don't use if you're allergic to Epclys. Allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. Eye problems can occur.
15:08
Tell your doctor if you have new or worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with Epclys. Before starting Epclys, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection.
15:16
Searching for real relief? Ask your doctor about Epclys and visit Epclys.lilly.com, or call 1-800-LILY-RX or 1-800-545-5979. [upbeat music] It's Julie Stewart-Banks.
15:26
I'm doing a new podcast from iHeartPodcast and the National Hockey League, and I'm paired up with one of my favorite players, the always quotable Nate Thompson.
15:35
I wore nine NHL sweaters, and I have story after story to share. And believe it or not, I have plenty to say, and not just about hockey. Believe me, he does.
15:44
Energy Line with Nate and JSB is the name of the podcast, and it's gonna be... Well, it's gonna be quite the ride. We're officially line mates, Nate. We're the Energy Line.
15:54
We'll have plenty of folks join us: current players, some of my former teammates, Hall of Famers. And wait till you see some of the connections that Julie has. She has quite the Rolodex. Okay.
16:04
We'll lean into Nate's playing experience and tap into our interests away from hockey, and try to do what energy lines are supposed to do: provide an emotional boost. How do you feel about all that, Nate?
16:15
I'm vibing, Julie. I'm ready to roll. Listen to Energy Line with Nate and JSB on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. [tense music] On November 5th, 2018, at 6:33 AM,
16:31
a red Volkswagen Golf was found abandoned in a ditch out in Sleep Hole Valley. The driver's seat door was open. No traces of footsteps leaving the vehicle.
16:45
No belongings were found except for a cassette tape lodged in the player. On that tape were 10 vile- No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Ahh!... grotesque- Oh my God. Oh my
17:03
God... horrific stories that to this day have been kept restricted from the public until now. [crying] Please, stop playing. You Feel In This Too: A Horror Anthology Podcast.
17:20
Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. [upbeat music] We ready to fight? I'm ready to fight. [laughs] And you are ready. Is, is that, is that what...
17:29
I thought it wa- oh, this is Fighting Words. Okay. I'll put the hammer back. [upbeat music] Hi, I'm George M. Johnson, a best-selling author with the second most banned book in America.
17:41
Now more than ever, we need to use our voices to fight back, and that's what we are doing on Fighting Words. We're not gonna let anyone silence us- That's the reason why they're banning books like yours, George.
17:54
That's the reason why they're trying to stop the teaching of Black history, of queer history, any history that challenges the whitewashed norm... or put us in a box.
18:03
Black people never ever depended on the so-called mainstream to support us. That's why we are great. We are the greatest culture makers in world history.
18:15
Listen to Fighting Words on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
18:31
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Are you ready to take your sports betting to the next level? With Sharp Plays at sharpplays.com is your secret weapon.
18:40
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18:45
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18:51
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18:57
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19:10
With the Sharp Plays, you're joining a team that's never had a losing year. What do you have to lose? Start today. Get access to the best betting insights at sharpplays.com. Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bentley.
19:19
This, uh, this gentleman, um, we always have on during the Major League Baseball season. He and I have known each other for, I don't know, what is it going on, 14 years, 15 years now?
19:31
Um, we met in like a betting forum in a, and just, we just sort of like game recognized game. We sort of were like simpatico. We understood how we looked at baseball handicapping-wise. Uh, fast friends ever since.
19:42
We used to hang out at spring training making up metrics 'cause we're dorks. [laughs] Making up metrics. 'Cause we're total dorks. Oh. Ladies and gentlemen, it's Mark Borcherd, @basewinner on Twitter, basewinner.com.
19:53
I'm laying back. Got my mind on my money and my money on my mind. He can also spit some rhymes from time to time. Well, and I, I actually waited for that, so I didn't even step over myself, so that's wonderful.
20:03
[laughs] Uh, yeah, no, I'm happy, happy to be on your show, Gil. It's, it's really great to talk to both of you guys, and, uh, yeah, you're right. We, we go back, I think it's 17 years, Gil. Oh my God. Long time.
20:14
Oh my God. Long time. And, and, uh, you know, uh, the, the game, to me, the handicapping game, Gil, has, has changed significantly, and I think that, uh, maybe you would agree with me.
20:24
Uh, back then you could do XVIP and- Yes...
20:27
and maybe a little bit of base runs and, and run it in a Davenport formula, and you'd, you, you know, you'd be able to beat the market, and it's just really, I think, gotten a little bit more difficult, uh, to do that because everybody, the market's using those same numbers and, uh- Yeah...
20:41
but at the same time, uh, gosh, Gil, the, hmm, the markets have really expanded. I mean, I remember back, oh, I'm, I'm, you know, I'm hearkening back to when I met you.
20:53
You know, maybe you had the three, the three si- you had the run line, you had the money line, and then you had the total, uh, but you didn't have any props. You didn't have any split, split bets, five innings.
21:03
You can go three innings. Uh- You didn't have, you didn't have five innings. People forget that. You didn't have five innings even as recently as like six, seven years ago. They weren't widespread, you know?
21:13
It just sort of in the, in the VSiN era have they, have they sort of come to, to pass. It is incredible, right? I mean, now it's vast, the menu of stuff to bet on.
21:22
It's really amazing and I think challenging, uh, to me, af- with, you know, pretty much half my adult life doing this, Gil.
21:30
Uh, you gotta really kinda pick your spots, and there's so many different ways to go, and there's so many, so much depth you can get into.
21:37
And really, if you look at, at, at, at, at if you wanna talk about depth and just Major League Baseball in general, you look at a, at a, at an organization, well, any organiza- z- sorry, organization, uh, in baseball, particularly the Diamondbacks, who I'm very high on this year, but they have a, a GM, he's an MIT, uh, PhD, and then they have four or five guys working under them in their, uh, analytics department.
22:02
So I think [laughs] if that doesn't show you, with 30 teams doing the same thing, how vast and how, oh, I guess perplexing, challenging, fun for me, but, but definitely the, the, the former that I just said, uh, baseball data is, then I don't, I don't know what does, Gil.
22:18
Okay. Well, let's, let's see how many of these season longs I can coax out of you, 'cause I understand you have, uh, you have clients, they're paying for your information as well.
22:25
So we're gonna just, we're, we're not gonna get everything from you, but I just wanna get a couple things. You alluded to the Diamondbacks. Uh, you are high on them. We had somebody else on the show.
22:33
Was it Joe Peta who was very high on the Diamondbacks as well, as I recall? We'll have to check on that one. Yeah, I think it was Joe. You're, someone was though. I think it was Joe.
22:40
Um, w- tell us w- how you are going to bet your bullishness on the Arizona Diamondbacks.
22:46
Well, you can ba- basically bet it a, a mu- many different ways, but I have them for best record in the, uh, in baseball at 25 to one. I've got them for number one seed in National League at 16 to one.
22:58
Another thing I'm doing is Torey Lovullo, manager of the year at 11 to one. And then, uh, pitcher with most wins, uh, close to my heart, Corbin Burns.
23:08
Uh, he elected to stay here, uh, in Phoenix, uh, and, and take a little bit less money. I think that's good, and I think that, that the stuff is best in baseball or perhaps maybe second or third best in baseball.
23:20
I think it's 16 to one, uh, Burns with the most wins is a good opportunity, Gil. Wow. So, so number one seed, what was your number on that?
23:29
Uh, I'm getting 16 to one, and, uh, just, I haven't run it today, but I think I ran it a few days ago, uh, a couple days ago actually for the, for the seed.
23:40
Um, and- Because I, I, the, the reason I seize on that obviously is because- Yeah... part and parcel with that is you, th- that would mean that they would ha- win the division, right? And beat the Dodgers.
23:52
Um, so that's pretty incredible also, the fact that you would think, you know, that, that it's worth a bet on that. Like, you think whatever number you got, you said 16 to one, that that represents good value. Yeah.
24:03
And so, like, be- before people like, like throw, throw stones at me, I guess- Yeah...
24:09
I mean, [laughs] I don't know, because the Dodgers are getting so much love in the betting market and like this guy, I actually have th- the Diamondbacks projected for more wins than the Dodgers, although I do like the Dodgers as well.
24:20
Uh, but, but the way that I'm, I'm projecting things within my simulations and, and modeling for the futures market is I'm looking at, I'm not looking at like these made-up stats. I'm looking at For the, for the bullpen.
24:32
Last 300, uh, plate appearances for walk percentage, last 150 plate appearances for strikeout percentage and ground ball percentage.
24:42
And then I evaluate, get a, I come up with a base winner, uh, ERA based on those numbers. So I'm not li- I'm not, like, totally, you know, making stuff up and then- Oh, no... uh, yeah.
24:52
And so and then for the offense, I'm looking at last 500 plate appearances, and I, I'm using base runs created based on an OPS adjusted for, for, uh, for the park factor.
25:03
So they're, they're not these outlandish numbers, and then I run them in a, in a 5,000 simulation and, and that's, that's what I'm getting, Gil.
25:09
So, uh- Yeah, no, I, I, I really, no, I appreciate you saying that because for, for new listeners who are not familiar with you, there is no one more granular, um, and relevant granular, granular stuff than Mark is with Major League Baseball.
25:22
So these are not just, again, as he put it, he's, he's not just pulling these out of you know where. This is, this is with simulation and then mathematically what represents value.
25:31
So 16 to 1 Diamondbacks, 'cause, 'cause intuitively I would think 16 to 1 is not long enough, but you're telling me otherwise, and I, and I'll, and I believe you on that.
25:40
So 16 to 1 for best record for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
25:44
Um- Well, well check this out, talking about the NL West, Gil, and I, I run it, this, uh, Dodgers I understand have two wins, but it goes into the simulations and, and based on the, on the component factors that go into the fence, the stuff, uh, I've got the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers with the exact same thing.
25:58
I, I don't think I've ever seen this. 49.3%, uh, to win that division would, would give you plus 103 odds from a true odds standpoint, Gil. So definitely there's value in, in the division plays and really- Yeah...
26:10
everything you can, you can think of on the Diamondbacks, Gil. But, but not l- not World Series, not pennant because you don't wanna deal with the vagaries of the postseason.
26:21
Oh, no, no, no, I actually have s- I have some plays on them.
26:23
I just have a lot of futures this year, Gil, so I just, uh, as far as getting to all of them, it's, it's, uh, probably not possible in, in a segment of, of, and, and talk about them, you know, cohesively, uh, in, in a, in a, in a, even a 15, 30-minute segment.
26:37
But yeah, a- and then I simulate the playoffs. I, I, I just, just because I, I mean, I think a better play is, is to either make the playoffs or to win in the division. Right.
26:48
I think probably, Gil, the, the, to make the playoffs for me, uh, would, would be if you had to make one bet on the f- on the futures for, for this season, the Diamondbacks to make the playoffs I think would be your bet, Gil.
27:02
Okay, so if you, if you had to distill it to one, that's the way you would go on that.
27:06
Um, before we get to the break, 'cause I wanna get to individual stuff on the other side, give me one more sort of, uh, what, what might be an outlying base winner projection on a team, like a team that no one i- that, that most people don't have on their radar that you think might be a postseason team or, or perhaps the opposite, a team that most people think is a done deal that they'll be in the playoffs that you are not nearly as high on and think could miss.
27:28
Well, I'm certainly bullish on these Twins, Gil, and I, I just wanna pull up the, uh, the projections that I have for them, uh, as from, from a win standpoint, and I, I don't have it sorted correctly, but I, I will find them, um, maybe.
27:45
Uh, there, [laughs] there we go. I've got them with 94 roughly wins. Wow. And in the m- in the market they're at 83 wins. So, uh, there's definitely some value there.
27:55
Some of the fun, uh, plays that I, that I made in this division was I did a, a Minnesota first to Cleveland second division exacta, and, uh, I have that at, at, at plus 760 getting the odds a- and significant value there based on the, on the, uh, on the projections.
28:13
A Minnesota-Cleveland exacta. For, uh, for those of us who have the under on, on Cleveland season win total, that's not music to my ears. What do you have projected as the Guardians win total?
28:24
Well, I, I got, I had this thing all sorted, Gil, and now I've got to- [laughs] Sorry... gotta- Sorry... gotta look at it. Sort it. No, no, no, it's all, it's all good.
28:30
It's just like, I don't, I mean, I don't even have it sorted by, by team, like, like alphabetically or whatever. I've, I've got, I've got Cleveland at 84.4 wins, so it's pretty close to market. Okay. Pretty close.
28:41
A little bit- Yeah... little bit, bit over, yeah. Okay. So we have, uh, Adam Burke and, and Mark Borchardt base winner on one side of Cleveland, uh, Cleveland's season win total.
28:48
We have me and Joe Peta on the other going under. Ba, ba, bum. So we have a, we have definite different, different opinions on that. Okay, I like that.
28:54
So again, the, uh, the Twins Guardians exacta, one-two exact in the American League Central. By the way, these are widely available.
29:02
I love the books that put these out, um, at, at over seven to one, plus 760 I believe you said on that? Um- Yeah, it's a- All right... it's great value. Yeah. Okay. And he's very bullish on the Diamondbacks.
29:12
We'll get back to, uh, Mark on the other side, some season-long individual stuff, home runs included. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
29:21
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29:51
Gil Alexander, Kelly Billin alongside. Uh, before we get back to, uh, Mark Borchardt, base winner at basewinner, basewinner.com, uh, for those interested in all his baseball season longs and his daily baseball plays.
30:02
That's obviously what he does, uh, here starting tomorrow, and, uh, I'm sure he's got his, uh, day one plays. We'll see if we can coax one of them out from him. But, uh, here's what I have.
30:11
Here's the three bets I've made so far, and again, I say so far 'cause there's still time. Um, I, the bottom there are the aforementioned Guardians under 82 and a half wins. Did a whole, uh, dissertation on that.
30:23
And then the two m- the, the monthly and the race to 10, we'll just do these from the bottom up. Twins most wins March, April, 15 to 1. Obviously the Dodgers with a two-win head start now on that.
30:34
We were hoping for the split in Tokyo, but instead the Dodgers had to go win both of them. And in the race to 10 regular season wins where that's even a bigger deal, the Mets at 17 to 1....
30:44
are the plays that I made so far in baseball. We bring back Mark Borchardt, base winner. Um, Mark, opening day, really domestic opening day, right? We, we had the two games in Tokyo, but for real, opening day tomorrow.
30:56
How many plays do you have typically on an, on an opening day? Mm, that's a good question. I usually on, on a daily basis will pro- definitely will have the base winner parlay. That's an everyday occurrence.
31:08
[laughs] Uh, e- even if I don't have two players, I'll find one and make the base winner parlay. But, uh, probably about five to six, Gil. Five to six, wow. Um, Steve Fezzik's favorite thing in the world.
31:18
He goes, "You know, this Mark Borchardt, he's so intelligent. Clearly he's doing everything by the book," and he, so he's a grand... And then he throws out a parlay at the end. It really drives him crazy.
31:25
It goes against him. Well, I can certainly make a case for why play parlays. Yeah. And in fact, I will.
31:30
You know, Gil, one of the things, I, I'm gonna be able to, to, to post, uh, articles and, and analysis on my site this year, which I'm really excited to do, and, uh, that's one of the things I've already written, uh, why play the parlay, and, and that'll, that'll come up here in the next few weeks, Gil.
31:44
So- All right... I will re- I will refute that because it's been very, very good for me, Gil. Uh, give us one that you love tomorrow, a game.
31:52
Well, I'll tell you what, I'm gonna give you, I'm gonna give you a base winner parlay. Oh, there we go. Uh, and I'm just, I'm gonna go, I'm gonna do it specially for you. Oh, thank you so much.
32:00
And- We should sponsor this. Oh. We should [laughs] get a sponsor for this. Yeah. [laughs] Brought to you by... Yeah. Well, I, I, I guess if it was... No, no, I'm gonna put the Giants in the parlay, Gil.
32:09
Hey, thank you so much. I guess if it, I guess if it was specially for you, I would do, oh, I'll do Balti- oh, for the Gil Alexander, Baltimore, San Francisco parlay. That's as me as it gets right there. Wow. Wow.
32:22
A- and, and they all, I'm not just, I'm not just doing this because of you. They actually have value according to the model and the components and everything that I do, Gil. All right.
32:30
So tomorrow, tomorrow again, opening day Major League Baseball. What did you call it off air? What did you call opening day in baseball? What was, what was your term for- New, New Year's Day.
32:37
New Year's Day for baseball, uh, Giants- The countdown, the ta- the countdown is right now inside of 24, no, uh, not quite inside of 24 hours.
32:44
There's, there's I think maybe 28 hours, 'cause there's, there's some, some, uh, early baseball tomorrow, Gil. By the, by the way, both of those games that you refer to are basically coin flips.
32:54
Giants Reds is minus 105 on each side, and then the, uh, the Birds, the Orioles, they are, uh, minus 108 favorites against the, uh, the Jays tomorrow. I got plus 264 on that parlay. Plus 264, okay.
33:06
When, and Gil, I think you'll be proud of me because I spared, going into Zach Eflin's starting [laughs] for, for the Orioles, and I didn't relate it, now I'm doing it, n- didn't relate him to Zac Efron, so. I know.
33:18
We, we, we were hoping you would. We, we, we were [laughs] we can expect those from you in the future, I know. I couldn't resist those. Yeah.
33:23
All right, let's get to season-long individuals, 'cause I wanna get some of these. Let's start with home runs. You have a bet in this market.
33:30
Well, yeah, this was a really fun market for me, uh, to, to get into, because for, for me, Gil, I think it's be- if, if Judge stays healthy, I don't think anybody's gonna, gonna get him.
33:44
And so I was able to, so, so, and that's a big question, so if he gets healthy. Hmm. And I was able to, to run simulations on this and say, well, Judge is not gonna be healthy in 25% of these simulations.
33:57
And so what did it come up with? He's still winning 60% of the, of the simulations, Gil. Even with that, even with that- Wow... um- Interesting... that adjustment there.
34:09
And, and really if you look at it, if you look at the, and this is kind of the f- the, the, the number that I use for home runs, uh, projecting this market, is home runs per plate appearance, and, and I'll just give you the last three years.
34:22
And Judge's 8.4% of his plate appearances result in a home run. And then the next, next best guy is, is Shelley.
34:30
And, uh, Ohtani's 6.6%, uh, home runs, uh, in his plate appearances, and then it goes to Matt Olson, who's, uh, 5.5%, Gil.
34:42
Aaron Judge with the second, with the second-best home run per plate appearance in the history of baseball, is that true? Am I reading that right?
34:49
McGwire one, Judge and George Herman "Babe" Ruth second, followed by Shohei Ohtani. Well, yeah. No, I'm not familiar with, uh- Yeah... I'm not familiar with those two guys, but, but I would believe it.
35:01
I can tell you 8 point- [laughs]... 8.4 [laughs]-- Yeah... percent is, uh, is, is, is really high.
35:08
I mean, it's, you know, I think the average is 3%, so he's 5% better than average, uh, from home runs per plate appearance.
35:15
But one of the things I, I do a- and I think that, that is unique to, to my handicapping style, and I wanna emphasize that as, as somebody who's been in the game for so long.
35:24
You know, guys, take this and, and make it your own style. This is the funnest part about handicapping.
35:30
But having said that, what I do for these markets is I do a base winner group of five, and I was able to get on, on this market, I was able to get, if you group them and you bet them according to plan, uh, I was able to get plus 219 for these five players.
35:44
And Aaron Judge of course leads it, but I was also able to get Matt Olson, Mike Trout, Tyler O'Neill, and Ketel Marte in that group to get those plus 219 odds, Gil. Okay, repeat that again for folks. Say that again.
36:00
Okay, so, uh, the, the five players in my group betting- Mm-hmm... and you have to split it up. Uh, I'll, I'll put this out for everybody. Uh, I'll send this out, uh, to, to everybody that follows me.
36:12
Uh, so Judge, Olson, Trout, O'Neill, and Ketel Marte in this group. Okay. Um, and what was your price on... Oh, so, so you didn't bet Judge individually? No, I put, so this is kind of how I did it.
36:26
So we'll do, do it from a unit size. Gotcha. So five units. So, so 3.45 units on Judge,.79 on Olson,.31 on Trout,.28 on O'Neill, and.15 on Marte.
36:39
And if you do that, the, it, it comes out to, to odds of plus 219 for that group. Gotcha. Okay, let's go to Cy Young. What did you come up with here? Well, let's start with the Ame- the National League.
36:52
And basically, this is a, a, a methodology, just really quickly. Uh, it's, it's the base winner 150 rank versus market odds. And so the, the National League, I have Skeens, Glasnow.
37:06
I'll, I'll give you the odds too with it. Skeens plus 300, Glasnow plus 1700, Yama be there at plus 2500. Sunny G, and you guys know that I rapped about, "Sunny, sunny, sunny, can't you see- Oh...
37:19
the pitches you throw hypnotize teams, uh-huh. And I just love your strikeout rate. I guess I'm gonna bet on you and gonna get paid." Boom. Okay.
37:28
So anyway- [laughs] He's, he's at 30 to 1, and then Corbin Burns at 12 to 1. And so you get all those guys, and you, you Dutch it a certain way, and I, I, I put that out for everybody that, that supports me.
37:41
Uh, the group odds are, are plus 121, Gil. Okay. Uh, could you define Yama be there for everybody, just in case everybody's wondering? That's, that's Yamamoto- Thank you... from the Dodgers. Yes. Okay. Yeah.
37:52
I just thought I'd throw that out there, 'cause I was so distracted by what was happening- I [laughs]... during that Well- [laughs] Well, hopefully we can count on hi- Yeah... hopefully we can count on him, brother. Yes.
38:00
You know? [laughs] I see what you did there. I- All right. I don't know. I just- I've heard it before, Gil, and I just lost it again. Me too. Me too. Uh, [laughs] American League Cy Young, what did you do there? Okay.
38:11
This is Garrett Crochet plus 450, Framber Valdez 17 to 1, Jacob deGrom 14 to 1- I've heard of that guy... Cole Ragans 10 to 1, and You Say, You Say, K- Kikuchi 80 to 1.
38:29
[laughs] And they do play that song, at least they have. I don't know if the Angels are gonna do it. Every time he strikes out
38:35
a batter, they play, You Say, and it's annoying when you're listening to it on the radio, Gil. Oh, they go with the, the, was that the Lisa Loeb? Is that her, is that her song? You Say? I knew you would know that one.
38:45
Is that Lisa Loeb? I knew you would know that one. I don't know. Yep. You know I don't know that song. I might be wrong on that. He's right. He's right, I think. Oh, really? Okay. Yep. Um- We got nothing in common.
38:53
That one? I thought you were gonna go, You say Kikuchi, I say... You know, that one. Um, okay. Um, wow. That's, uh, [laughs] that was great. All right.
39:02
So we have all of those bets, and you have made those, um, again, with unit sizing. Or you could, not flats, right? You, the, like you described with home runs. Yeah. No, no, they're, they're adjusted based on the odds.
39:14
Gotcha. So you're gonna get the same return, you know, no ma- if you hit one of those five, you'll get the same return no matter which one of those five hits, Gil. All right.
39:23
Mark, we'll have you on, uh, weekly, if you're willing. I know you have a day- Yeah... where you can allot to us, 'cause you're busy otherwise. This is your time of year, man. For sure. We'll definitely fill it in.
39:32
I love talking to you guys. I love this show. I, I love, I, I love being a, a, um, oh, I wanna say consumer, but a listener. A listener's probably a better word, of the show.
39:41
You, great stuff, great guests, and I'm, I'm glad, I'm proud to be part of one of, one of- Listen, listen... part, be part of one of your guests, right, I guess.
39:47
Listen, we re- we really enjoy baseball slash pop culture slash music references. We enjoy that from you as well. Don't ever change. Gotta have fun with this stuff. Absolutely. Work hard, have fun. Absolutely.
39:57
That's a good philosophy. Thank you, Mark. Appreciate it. Base Winner, everybody, @basewinner, basewinner.com. We'll talk some golf, Houston Open, on the other side right here on the Numbers Game at Feast.
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41:38
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41:49
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42:00
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45:01
Oh, the hilarity behind the scenes here. Um, [laughs] let me just read the tweets first. [laughs] This is from, uh, this is from Larry Matthews Jr.
45:09
Uh, "Speaking of parlays, Gamblu," the aforementioned Lou Finoccharo, who we love, nicest man in the world, "is great," he says, "at extracting early line value via two fighter parlays in UFC." Absolutely. Yep.
45:20
"Been a valuable lesson for me betting MMA." Shout out to Lou. Ben McGovern, "Can we give a shout-out to Station Sportsbook for offering dime lines in baseball?" Yes, we can, Ben.
45:31
He says, "Both Circa and South Point increase the vig on baseball bets." So Station's here in town, again, loc- local shop. Um- Uh, also only one of two books we've discovered offering quarters for, for tennis, right?
45:44
Correct. Correct. Uh, shout out, they offer top fives, top 10s, top 20s in golf. I, yeah, Station's been awesome. They have great tennis lines.
45:53
Um, won't often, on the futures, give you a whole bunch to bet on in the long shots, but that's a different story. Um, but yeah, looking, you know, I'm looking at how is their dime lines up to.
46:02
Let's put it this way, a minus 150 favorite, I'm seeing at plus 138, so not quite dime, but as close to dime as you're getting, up to minus 150 in town, so shout out to them.
46:11
Uh, 3JackH3131, "The country club and jam started to sound like the, uh, the Darude Sandstorm jam, which took me straight to college bar club, and which reminded me we're halfway through the workweek and college basketball's on tomorrow, which reminded me I need to make a beer run."
46:23
[laughs] Well, I get that tweet. It's a great tweet. A lot, a lot of reminders there. You did get that tweet. I don't know why it showed up in... It's so funny, like, stuff doesn't show up in the feed. Yeah.
46:32
Jamie, Jamie Leyva, "So glad the fine crew behind the glass caught the boom at the end of the base winner rhyme. The verbal mic drop had me in stitches. Have a great day, gentlemen." Yes. Great word.
46:39
Shout out to Rob Moreno. And Dardel. And Dardel for both hooking it up. I, I don't, I don't really know how the work was chopped up, but- I don't know what they do back there, but they got it.
46:47
Rob Moreno, I, at least immediately recognized the hilario- He did... hilariousness of it, so, yeah. And the fact that he caught the boom at the end. The boom. The other thing- Boom. I missed the boom live.
46:56
[laughs] I think Chris Felica texted in. He goes, by the way, I never know which of these texts are supposed to be public or not. But Felica texted about your, uh, your golf, [laughs] your golf rant.
47:04
He said, uh, "Tell me more about ball striking." [laughs] It's just, for those of us who are not as immersed in golf as the golf handicappers- Cashmere Keith, baby... you guys are all about the ball striking.
47:14
Cashmere Keith. Um, [laughs] and then can you tell that story that you just told off air? Is that allowed? You can tell that story, right? No, I cannot. You can't? No, I cannot. Oh. I cannot. Come on, it's so good.
47:24
Anyway, sorry about that, guys. Didn't mean to tease something you wouldn't tell. Uh, let's talk some college hoops. Let's talk some NBA.
47:29
Zach Cohen, usually not with us on Wednesday, but, uh, Kelly had to do a little shuffle-in, and, uh, we have Zach today. You can follow Zach @bettingonx. He comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
47:39
How you doing, Zach? I'm doing well. How are you guys? Doing very well. Any tennis plays today on the business end- Yeah... of the Miami Open? I have a few. I, I think we're oppo on one.
47:49
I have Dimitrov against Cerundolo, who I have been backing the last few days.
47:53
Looks awesome in Miami, but I, I just think Dimitrov also likes these conditions a lot, and I, I just think his serve is a little bit more reliable, so that was my reasoning there. Oppo.
48:02
I also played Ra- uh, Raducanu plus one-and-a-half sets against Pegula and sprinkled that money line as well. I just think that she's playing really well this week, and she has played Pegula tough in the past.
48:12
The, uh, they had a really close match in Cincinnati in 2022. Uh, Pegula lost to Raducanu last year in Eastbourne in 2024. Uh, so I just think it's gonna be a really close match.
48:23
And then the third one, uh, was Arthur Fils plus one-and-a-half sets against Zverev, and that was one that probably wouldn't have taken yesterday because he was cramping up two days ago, but he ended up, you know, getting an extra day of rest because of the rain delays.
48:35
Now I think that's a really good value playing against Zverev, who has been playing terrible tennis up until this tournament. The Raducanu thing is kind of amazing. Uh, she won the US Open famously as a quali.
48:46
Um, never happened before, never happened since, out of nowhere. Then she kinda just went into the, the wilderness a little bit in tennis, w- everybody wondering will she ever reach that level again?
48:57
And here, all of a sudden, she is just knocking out, 'cause she beat Navarro, first of all. Yeah. Um, and then she just destroyed Kessler in a walkover.
49:07
Um, and then she destroyed Anisimova, and you're like, "Whoa, where is this coming from?" [laughs] So we'll see. It's the, it's the f- it's the first time she's won four matches in a row since the US Open.
49:17
There it is It's amazing. Yeah. That's absolutely amazing. Uh, to the NBA, uh, the big Warriors-Heat, uh, you know, Jimmy Butler revenge game didn't really materialize. Butler ends up with 11 points. Steph did not play.
49:31
Miami crushes the Warriors. But with Steph not playing, do we read anything into that at all? No.
49:36
I, I mean, I had the Heat plus five and a half, and I played the money line on that as well, but I did not know Steph was gonna be out, so I definitely got lucky with the injury report there.
49:44
Although, I do feel I deserve some injury report luck after the last couple of weeks. Yeah.
49:49
By the way, I love the, uh, the contrast between, like, Jimmy Butler on the one hand saying like, "I'm not gonna say anything to Pat Riley, and he better not say anything to me."
49:56
[laughs] Uh, contrasted with the Warriors just dapping up Wiggins. They love him so much, winning a championship. Oh, yeah. It's like all love. Like, the two d- Also-... two different cultures. Yeah.
50:05
Is, is he gonna beat up Pat Riley? Like a [laughs] like an old man. I, I don't understand what, what he was saying when he said that.
50:10
Well, remember there was that one huddle with the Heat where Butler was, like, gonna beat up somebody in there as well, and, like, Spoelstra had to, like, separate... Or he threatened Spoelstra, right? Yeah.
50:18
In a huddle once. Yeah. Anyway, um, Warriors, would you... We had Drew on yesterday. He said the Warriors are the fourth-best team in the NBA. Do you believe that? I still can't get there with them.
50:29
I, I just think that the offensive numbers are still kinda lacking a little bit, and I do think that they need to kinda play perfect games in order to just win close games.
50:36
I think that we've seen over the last few weeks that they've been winning a lot, but they're not really winning by margin.
50:41
I, I think that they're gonna have trouble once they get into the playoffs, start playing teams that can really shoot the three. Obviously, Steph's the greatest shooter of all time.
50:48
Other guys on that team are going to need to step up and help him. Yeah. By the way, I d- I misspoke. I shouldn't say the Warriors culture is better than the Heat culture. It's more of a Butler thing than anything.
50:57
Um, what did you land on in the NBA tonight? I don't have much tonight. I, I, I played a parlay with the Pacers with an alternate line of plus seven and a half against the Lakers. I am excited for that game.
51:08
I wanted a piece of Indiana, but I didn't know if I wanted to take it at one and a half, so I played it at an alternate, and I used the Suns as the other team in that plus 10 and a half, playing against a Celtics team that was, will very likely be without Jayson Tatum.
51:22
And Phoenix over the last two weeks has been great, uh, defensively playing like a top 10 team in the league, uh, in defensive rating now that they have reinserted Ryan Dunn and Oso Ighodaro into the rotation.
51:33
There's just a much different energy with this team, and they are playing without Bradley Beal, who I believe they're now 12 and 3 w- uh, without.
51:40
When Kevin Durant and Devin Booker play without Beal was just insane for a $50 million player. Zach, uh, let's go to, uh, let's go to college hoops. The, uh, Veesun, the Veesun Bracket Challenge.
51:51
We obviously are a part of the, the Veesun group. You, like Kelly Bidlin, tied for 12th. Oh, you're gonna get smoked, son. Striking distance- [laughs]... from the promised land. Here again, uh, four picks. What is it?
52:02
Uh, four picks in the... What is it? Four in the Sweet 16? No. Yeah, four in the Sweet 16. You gotta do it today. Two in the Elite Eight, one in the Final Four. Is that how we're doing this?
52:10
I don't even remember anymore. Um, anyway, we have picks to make, in other words. Right, yeah. [laughs] I should probably look into it. Um, Sweet 16, what is your favorite pick amongst the group, the eight games?
52:23
Yeah, so I, I mean, I didn't get this bad of a number in the actual challenge that I did in real life. I took over 172 and a half in Alabama-BYU because I wrote that game up right when it became available.
52:34
So I got the opening line on that. I never get the opening line. But I do think I would still take the over. I actually did play the over. I think it's 177 now, uh, i- in the challenge.
52:44
I, I just think that we've seen all year when Alabama plays against top offenses, those games are very, very high scoring. They've played 10 games against top 10 offenses in adjusted offensive efficiency.
52:55
Eight of those games have gone over, and the two that went under were also extremely high-scoring games against Kentucky that I, I believe had an average, uh, total score of, like, 170 and a half.
53:05
So, you know, those were the games that went under. I, I think that there's a really good chance we see a very high-scoring game, maybe even the high 180s, low 190s. This BYU team can gun up threes.
53:15
They can knock down threes, and Alabama plays at the fastest pace in college basketball. Well, they have the fastest pace, highest average points in college basketball this year with 91-plus points a game for- Yep...
53:26
the Crimson Tide as, uh, Nate Oats tries to run it back this year. And, uh, the window closes, I believe, after this year for Bama, though, uh, it would seem. Um, anything else in college hoops?
53:38
I like Texas Tech minus five and a half. I, I think that Arkansas has gotten a really good draw for the way they play.
53:44
I, I think that this team is very good defensively, has enough talent to kinda win games against, you know, mediocre offensive teams offensively.
53:51
That's what you get when, you know, you have Calipari bringing in five-star recruits. But I, I think that playing against Kansas, you know, a team that was struggling, playing against St.
53:59
John's, a team that was really terrible offensively, is going to be very different than playing Texas Tech who, uh, is just an unbelievable three-point shooting team, has a incredible athlete in JT Toppin, and is just very, very well-coached.
54:12
I think that this team is very good on both ends of the floor. I think it looks like Chance McMillion is going to be playing in this game. If he does, I think that Texas Tech wins this one pretty easily.
54:21
Your Final Four still intact, Zach? Remind us. Uh, honestly, I've so many brackets that I don't know. I- [laughs] Yeah, I think it is 'cause I have Houston, Duke, uh, Texas Tech, and Michigan State. Oh. So, uh, yes.
54:33
Okay. I am alive with my Final Four. I wouldn't say I feel great about how it's going to go, but I, I, I do have Houston to win the tournament. Houston to win the tournament. That was my next question. Okay. Um, yeah.
54:44
We'll see, and we'll see if, uh, Tom Izzo and the s- uh, Tom Izzo had a great rant yesterday. Did you see this? Mm-hmm.
54:49
Four minutes worth of him going off on the transfer portal while acting like he didn't wanna talk about the transfer portal, but he, he was great.
54:56
Um, we'll see if they can exceed their seed, which would buck that O and 40 trend that PETA, uh, revealed that KenPom had put out a few years back. Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it. Good luck with all of it. Thanks, guys.
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56:28
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56:51
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