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Mar 31, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | March 31, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | March 31, 2025
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[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. So, all those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
1:03
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. Vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's my little buddy Kelly Bidlin, everybody.
1:14
How you doing, man? Doing great. How about you? Eh, you know, I'm all right. I'm all right. Yeah. We'll see, we'll see what we'll do here.
1:19
Uh, Wes Reynolds will join us to talk golf and college hoops with us a little later on in the show. Matt Grissom on college baseball, how about that? Little curveball. Uh, Carl Sack on the NBA.
1:30
Spanky will join us later to talk about the, the host of the Better Betters... Uh, that's not the name of his podcast, is it? Better Betters? Is that the name of his podcast? Be Better Betters, I believe that is. Yeah.
1:39
Okay. All right. Um, Spanky will be here, who, uh, he's the founder of BetBash as well. He has a contest going on. You wanna get into a Major League Baseball handicapping contest?
1:50
Now that, uh, your brackets and survivor and all that is winding down, and you're looking for another contest to play, Spanky's got one over at Spank Gods. We'll talk to him about that a little later on in the show.
2:00
Um, first of all, golf. Min Woo Lee, yes? Min Woo Lee. Nicely done. Scottie Scheffler as usual making the blood pressure medication work. Uh, you know, really got, really putting it to work. What'd you have Min Woo at?
2:12
35 to one. Nice. Yeah, so that was a- So Wes-... nice outright... as well. Can we show that tweet? Do we have that tweet ready to go? We do have that tweet. [laughs] We do. It's a VSiN tweet, ladies and gentlemen.
2:21
Look at this. "Congrats to Wes Reynolds," and then in, in a parenthetical aside- [laughs]... "and long shots co-host Kelly Bidlin on Min Woo Lee at 35 to one." So Wes gets the shine.
2:32
Kelly is a mere, you know, oh, by the way. Yeah, yeah. Kelly also got it. Always nice to know where you stand, you know, Gil? [laughs] Always nice to know where you stand. That's great. In the parenthesis.
2:41
Congrats to Gil for fighting a cold. Kelly cured cancer this weekend. [laughs] Um, on, y- [laughs] it's just so great. Worked here for eight years. [laughs] Good for you, man.
2:51
Congratulations to both of you, uh, on Min Woo, who you were a little upset was, like a little too excited before he shot in his last putt, the little, like three-incher.
3:01
Yeah, I didn't really spend much time on golf Twitter yesterday. Yeah. And I, uh, m- I feel like this is a betting thing that may- maybe I'm just a guy overreacting, but the, he needed two, two putts to win.
3:12
First putt off the green, he puts it like six inches away from the cup. But he's celebrating like he won the damn tournament already- [laughs]... where he's still gotta make this putt. I, so I don't know.
3:22
I was a little, uh, I thought it was a little interesting how much celebrating he was doing. He did a little fake, like, uh, the, uh, the fake, uh, putting stance too, to like line up his putt for the last one. Oh, man.
3:32
Dude, I was like, "Dude, just tap it in already. Come on." Well, anyway, congrats to Wes. Thank you. And Kelly. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Congrats, Wes. Well, anyway. Um, all right. Sweet 16 down to the final four.
3:42
Hope it went well for everybody. Uh, look, we got the four best teams. I don't think there's any- anyone who can justifiably disagree with that.
3:51
Apologies to Texas Tech, to Alabama, you name it, um, Tennessee, but these are the four best teams. And, uh, it's the four best teams any way you look at it, right? The eye test, it's the four best teams.
4:01
The betting market, it, it's been the four best teams. Um, KenPom, it's the four best teams. The formula, uh, that we run here on the show, it's been the four best teams.
4:11
Any which way you, you slice it and dice it, that's been the case. By the way, the combined records of Duke, Florida, Houston, and Auburn, 135 and 16 straight up.
4:21
It is only the second time in the history of March Madness where the top seeds, the number ones in each region, get to the final four, 2008 being the other one. Just mentioned 135 and 16 combined record this year.
4:34
Do you know what the combined record was in 2008 for those four teams? No idea. 140 and nine. They were even better. Oh, wow. Straight up.
4:42
That was, uh, that was the year that Mario Chalmers hit the th- the game-tying three. Yeah. [laughs] Kansas was down nine with less than two minutes left against Memphis.
4:52
Derrick Rose only made one of two free throws, gave Chalmers a chance, or Kansas a chance to tie it up. Chalmers did, splashed it, and then Kansas ran 'em out in, uh, overtime.
5:02
But that was Kansas, Memphis, uh, UNC, and UCLA that year, and they were 140 and nine headed in to the final four. So, and by the way, I looked at it KenPom.
5:12
KenPom this year, just a, again, a historical comparison, this group of four, Duke one and four, adjusted offense, defense; Houston 10 one; Florida two 10; Auburn three eight.
5:24
That year, Kansas two one; Memphis six two; UNC one 14; UCLA seven five.
5:32
By the way, that was the Carolina team that had Danny Green, Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson on it, and the UCLA team with Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, and Darren Collison back in the day.
5:41
So anyway, those are the two years, um, that, that, that group of four beats it record-wise, but KenPom pretty much even.
5:47
And as far as our formula, listen, it's been Auburn, Duke, and Houston from the first week we've done this.
5:54
Every single week they've been the qualifiers, and every single week Florida has been the fly in the ointment, because the only one of those six criteria that they don't hit...
6:02
is the head coach with previous Sweet 16 experience clause, which has only had two exceptions in 34 years. Famously, Kevin Ollie in 2014 with UConn, Danny Hurley in 2023 with UConn.
6:14
So Todd Golden trying to be the third to buck that, and the only non-UConn coach to buck that.
6:20
Um, so good on the, in, in fact, if, if, you know, say what you will about the tournament and its lack of upsets all the way, but at least, least we got this Final Four.
6:30
Um, how did you do in the bracket challenge by the way? Vsan bracket challenge. Oh, terrible. Terrible. Terrible. Where- wherever we were, uh... Where, when was I, in second place halfway through Thursday night? Yep.
6:39
Only downhill from there, my friend. Guess who would be in second place outright right now if he remembered to hit the deadline on Saturday? [laughs] That'd be me. I'd be in sole possession of second.
6:48
I sent Bill Adia, I said, "Bill Ad," I said, "What do you mean? I thought it said 3:30." I'm so stupid. I'm the stupidest person in the world.
6:53
The game started at 3:09, but there was something on the website that said 3:30, and I immediately in my head got it messed up. Yeah. Like, oh, the deadline's 3:30. No, they'll be available to view at 3:30.
7:02
The games had actually started, so I sent him all my picks. Yeah, I'd be sole possession of second. You, you were texting me while I was, like, driving around.
7:08
I was so conf- I was like, "I am so confused by what Gil, what Gil's confused about." I'm just so stupid. Matt Brown is your leader in the Vsan thing. Matt Brown- Matt Brown?...
7:15
regardless of anything would be your leader. Uh, Matt Brown is at first. Ben Wilson, of those who met their deadline, [laughs] would be in second. Dan Strauss third. Bill Adial.
7:24
Oh, oh, oh, no, Wilson, Strauss, and Adial tied for second. You're in fifth. I'm in fifth? You're in fifth. Yes. You're in fifth. Oh, okay. All right, you got a puncher's chance. That's just the Vsan thing.
7:33
The real standings of actual Vsan listeners, and this is for our $3,000 first prize. Nice. 1,500 second, 500 third. Dennis McKay. Dennis McKay. McKay. We only have the first three letters of the last names.
7:50
Uh, 27, 9, and 1 for Dennis. Good for you. Randy's brother? Maybe. I don't know if it's McKay or McKinnon. I don't know what it is. [laughs] Right. Um, John Chi, Gary Marr, your thr- your second and third place.
8:02
But 27, 9, and 1, um, is in first place. And remember, these are weighted, so- Right. Yeah, yeah...
8:08
if you do better in the Elite Eight than you do in the Sweet 16, than you do in the round of 32, than you do a round of 64, that matters. Record with a grain of salt a little bit, yeah. Yeah.
8:17
'Cause by the way, just to let you know, I would've been in second with a 17, 17 and 1 record. That just shows you how ridiculous the weighting can be. I could also confirm this because Gil sent me- Yeah...
8:26
his entire homework, uh- Yes... once he, once he- I won't-... missed his deadline... I will not reveal the methodology- [laughs]... of why I went 3 and 0 in the Elite Eight, but just trust me, it, it worked.
8:35
You should've seen me driving around. I'm getting texts from Gil. I'm like, "I don't know what he's talking about. Yeah, I'm pretty sure the deadline"- Do you-...
8:41
like, "The deadline's definitely not 3:30 'cause games start already, my man." Games, games already started, Gil. Do you- And then I got a full handicap from Gil.
8:47
[laughs] Do you, do you ever get a, a reminder that you are in fact an idiot? That would be mine on Saturday. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. I'm like, "I'm a fucking idiot." Don't worry about it.
8:57
It happens to me like daily. Complete idiot. Yeah. Anyway, um, the other thing that, uh, now goes to in terms of trends, historical trends in March Madness, 'cause we followed this one as well.
9:06
Uh, Joe Peta did a great job. By the way, Joe Peta's baseball pick's coming up as well.
9:10
Joe Peta on this show Thursday and Friday, six and one out of the gate in baseball for over five units, so he's got four picks coming up. But he did a great job revealing this Ken Pom tweet.
9:20
Ken, Ken Pomeroy does not tweet anymore, but, uh, Joe Peta unearthed this Ken Pom tweet from before, which is, "Hey, um, if you are a top one or two seed in March Madness, but you also were not in the AP preseason top 25,
9:39
you are going into this tournament, you are 0 and 39 in terms of beating your seeding." So in other words, if you're a two seed, you don't get past the Elite Eight.
9:48
If you're a one seed, you don't get past the Final Four, uh, if you were a top two seed but not in the AP season, uh, AP preseason top 25.
9:56
And the logic of that is, again, college basketball is ultimately a small sample size season, and there is some wisdom in that preseason top 25 which we forget completely about, and certainly as gamblers we don't really m- pay much attention to.
10:08
Totally. Well, St. John's and Michigan State were the two teams that were not in the AP preseason 25 and were number one and two seeds. They were both twos, and with Michigan, uh, St.
10:17
John's win earlier in the tournament and Michigan State's loss yesterday means it is now 0 and 41. 0 and 41 in terms of those teams exceeding their seeding in the actual tournament when it plays out. It's amazing.
10:32
That is crazy. And I think there is something to that. Again, a lot of these trends don't make any sense, but there is some wisdom in that.
10:37
Um, there's- No, I, I think you broke it down well last week of just it's a, you, you take a step back and it's a lot smaller of a sample size than we all think it is- Yep... when you just go through a season.
10:47
Um, about these, about these, uh, spreads now for, for the semifinals, for the Final Four on Saturday. Mm-hmm.
10:55
Um, what you have here is pretty interesting because, uh, in the case of Duke, Duke is a five-point favorite now over Houston. This has even ticked up a little bit since this morning. Nice.
11:04
Florida's ticking up a little against Auburn. It's two and a half now as well.
11:07
This was, this is surprisingly short because Jahdai Broom, for those who missed it yesterday, uh, in the Auburn game, Jahdai Broom hurt, got hurt on a play where he wrenched, he managed to wrench, wrench by the way, technical term, uh, both his elbow and his leg- Yep...
11:25
in landing. Um, and so he did get back in the game Willis Reed style. He did hit a three, which obviously brought the Auburn faithful, uh, to their, to their, um, to their feet if they weren't standing already.
11:38
Uh, that was a big moment in Auburn's win yesterday. But you do wonder what kind of version we will get of Jahdai Broom, one of the two Wooden Award-winning, you know, candidates all year long, along with Cooper Flagg.
11:49
Auburn five to one, they are the long shot now to win it all of the remaining Final Four teams.
11:54
The, the other, the one other thing that w- this weekend in this, 'cause the other games, you know, were just abject blowouts, right? Um, Houston held Tennessee to 15 first-half points. They led 34 to 12 late first half.
12:08
The closest that Tennessee ever got was 50 to 40. Duke led 15 to five against Bama, um, right out of the chute. Then it was between four and 20 points, which was actually the final margin.
12:19
Bama never made it a one possession game at any point. But I will say this, that, that comeback by Florida, I have something to say about that after the break.
12:28
I'm, I'm curious if anybody else noticed, but that was one of the all-time unbelievable comebacks in a game of those stakes. We'll get into that and some baseball. Torpedo bets, anybody?
12:39
It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:55
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13:02
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13:16
Wanna get some Joe Peta bets in here, Kelly? Torpedo bets. [laughs] Joe Peta bets, not torpedo bets. I'm just gonna say that- You're obsessed. You're obsessed with that... I am obsessed with it.
13:27
[laughs] Obsessed with that bet. All right, so Joe Peta stroll- well, he didn't stroll on in here. I just relayed them. Opening day went three and O, then he went three and one with his Friday plays.
13:37
And so, uh, by the way, people were asking Joe for plays on the weekend. He's like, "Nope, just weekdays with Gilly Kelly." That was cracking me up, yeah. Um, so he's six and one to start things.
13:47
Six and one out of the chutes to start things, plus 5.19 units thus far for Joe Peta. He's got four plays today. Four plays today. Let me, uh, knock these down.
13:58
Unofficial, uh, numbers game, daily Major League Baseball handicapper. No, there's nothing unofficial about it. These are real. Official. Oh, you s- I thought you said unofficial. Okay. I did say unofficial.
14:07
It was just- [laughs] Joe, we, we gotta get Joe on the show now. I didn't know he was gonna be doing this every day. I don't think he, like, wants to come on every day, Gimme.
14:14
He's just like, "I'll just do them until I start losing," this kind of thing. All right, today he is on. He's got four plays. He is on the Texas Rangers.
14:21
Texas Rangers, uh, who are taking on the Cincinnati Reds, a little interleague play. Uh, Joe's got them at minus 113. You might even be able to find a couple cents better than that now. He is on the Mariners.
14:32
He's on the Seattle Mariners, also around that very same price. Uh, Mariners today at minus 112. Mariners at minus 112, uh, taking on the Detroit Tigers. It's a little higher. It's about a nickel higher than that now.
14:47
I'm sure Joe would say please play it still even only a nickel higher. Padres looking to go, uh, five and O like the Dodgers. He's got the Padres today at minus 131.
14:58
Uh, Padres are in some, uh, interleague, a lot of interleague today. Padres taking on the Guardians. You might even be able to find that a few cents better. Padres are the play versus the Guardians.
15:06
And the Cubbies, minus 125. Cubbies taking on Ath, A-T-H, the Athletics. Cubbies, uh, he got it minus 125. It's right on that price right now.
15:16
So those are your four, Rangers, Mariners, Padres, Cubs, from Joe Peta, six and one out of the gates. Uh, let's talk some college baseball.
15:23
We had this gentleman on before the, uh, college baseball season began, and if I recall correctly, he will, uh, correct me if I'm wrong, but it was, um, Arkansas, Clemson, and Virginia, I believe, were the three teams he seized on for, uh, to make the College World Series and then to win the College World Series.
15:40
Matt Grissom joins us now. You can follow him on X at Grissom on X, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Matty? I'm doing well.
15:48
As a Razorback fan and bettor coming off a sweep of Vanderbilt, number 14 on the road, first time in Dave Van Horn's history, so feeling good on Monday. Yeah, Arkansas 26 and three on the season.
16:01
They're ranked second, only behind the Tennessee Volunteers in the college baseball rankings. The aforementioned Clemson Tigers 26 and five. They're sixth in those rankings.
16:09
Virginia, eh, maybe not quite the same outside of football. Yeah, Virginia, Virginia's dealing with injuries still. A lot like Florida, just kind of salvage the season here if you can.
16:19
Evan Blanco coming back really helped Virginia's rotation, but you're talking about a team that started preseason number two, and they just have not lived up to expectations.
16:29
But thank God for Texas A&M, because as the consensus number one overall, had a feeling Mike Early may struggle as a first year head coach. Didn't, didn't think they'd struggle this bad.
16:40
You've got a team that was in the College World Series Championship final last year. Most of that team came back, and here they are just way below.500, uh, on the year in the SEC.
16:54
I think they finally won their first SEC game this past weekend, albeit they lost the series to Kentucky. So, uh, RIP Texas A&M.
17:04
You were, uh, you were going back and forth on Twitter with, uh, some gentlemen, um, about who you trust right now in college baseball. What's the list? Yeah, I think you've gotta do it Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU.
17:16
Uh, if you look at the past 10 years, it's, it's typically an SEC team that's gonna win it all. You look at teams that are very well-balanced.
17:23
I like to look at Sierra for pitching, XBIP, and then weighted runs created, WOBA for hitting. I look for teams that are in the top 20 in both, and Tennessee, LSU, Arkansas all fit the bill.
17:36
And then Kelly Bidlin's Florida State Seminoles are up there as well, and Clemson. Tennesse- Uh- Yeah. Oh, go ahead. I'm sorry, Matt. Go ahead.
17:46
Well, I was just gonna say there's, there's some other teams like Georgia and Alabama who are absolutely killing the ball. The problem is their pitching staff. Could they make it to Omaha just swinging the bat? Yes.
17:56
They could get through any regional, super regional, especially if they're in the hosting picture. The problem is when you get to Omaha and you widen that park, you've gotta have pitching.
18:06
And I, I think I saw where Georgia is giving up, uh, 12 runs a game in, in SEC play. That's not gonna cut it, e- especially in Omaha. So- I like Georgia, Alabama to make it there.
18:18
I don't think they can win it, though, with their staff. Tennessee four to one to win the College World Series. LSU, the aforementioned LSU and Arkansas squad plus 750.
18:27
Arkansas, one of Matt's preseason plays at nine to one. Clemson, the other one of his, uh, two of his three, uh, preseason plays, 10 to one to win it all.
18:35
Now, uh, Matt, if one were interested in placing a Florida State bet to, uh, win the College World Series, I'm asking this for the audience who's obviously interested, uh, would now be a good time, or should that person wait a little bit here on the schedule?
18:49
I would, I would go ahead and do it. I think they're coming off a really tight series this past weekend. It-- they're shaky, but they're always a huge favorite. Like, absolutely ridiculous.
18:59
They were minus 1,050 in a game verse Miami. Whoa. I mean, this... I had to bet Miami plus whatever it was, 560, just out of principle. Uh, and Miami actually pulled the upset, but that's for another day. Uh- [laughs]...
19:14
the problem is these books are so out of whack with the lines. They have Jamie Arnold, who everybody knows about, but then they have a, a really good, a- actually, who's been pitching, is the ace.
19:26
Um, it-- Florida State is, is a very complete team. They're doing well on both sides of the ball. Clemson, I think, is just a little bit better when you look at a pitching staff.
19:37
I, Florida States is really good, especially for the ACC. So I would go ahead and jump on them. I, I think they can win the ACC, and that's gonna put you in that national seed hosting picture anyways.
19:50
Is there a long shot somewhere, you know, beyond what you've mentioned where you're like, "Okay, if things broke their way, they might actually be some team to look at and may be worth a bet"?
20:01
Man, I've been, I've been trying to talk myself into buying into this Anteaters team. UC Irvine, if they can sneak in and get into, like, the UCLA regional as a two seed, I think the Anteaters could do it.
20:13
The problem is NIL has just really killed the mid-major, and we've seen it across all sports. I just don't think they have the pitching staff to be able to win two out of three against one of the top eight seeds.
20:27
So maybe a bite on them to make the College World Series, but I think you would be better off just waiting on them to get seeded in that regional, and that's where you take your jabs at these, these longer dogs.
20:39
Like, we saw Oral Roberts do it a couple of years ago. I, I just think it's way too hard for a mid-major or a longer shot to make it to Omaha. It's a tough ask. All right.
20:51
For those who are, who are new to this, 'cause we, we've talked college baseball here on this show for, for years now, but for those who are new to it, you only have a few games that are being played today, and then tomorrow it's, like, a massive amount of games.
21:02
How early do lines come out for individual games? The million-dollar question, Gil. Sometimes we get them an hour before the games start. Sometimes- Wow... you get them the night before. It's, it's super inconsistent.
21:14
We've kind of chalked it up to maybe it's because of March Madness and them having to have a quick turnaround for these games. But at this point, like, it... We're, we're lucky to get them the morning of games.
21:26
So it, it really cuts your handicapping in half. So to really sum it up, uh, it's... College baseball is a very chalky sport typically.
21:35
You can make some money in money line parlays on the weekends, but during the week you'll see teams sell out to win.
21:43
Perfect case, uh, perfect example, two weeks ago we saw East Tennessee State beat Tennessee to keep them from going undefeated.
21:53
The week after that, Missouri State, who was sitting at, I think, 10 and 12 on the year, they beat Arkansas in Fayetteville in the 10th inning.
22:02
So you're, you're going to have these mid-majors really show up and try to beat their, quote-unquote, "big brother of the state" or whatever.
22:11
That's where you can make some money on some fun long shot bets throughout the week. But we put everything on collegebaseballinsiders.com, all the advanced analytics.
22:19
You can look at a team like FAU or UTSA who is hitting just well above average in weighted runs created. Use our matchup projector, see how many runs they should score, and try to make some money that way.
22:33
It, it's, it's all put out there for you. It's absolutely free to use. A beautiful thing. Collegebaseballinsiders.com. So therefore, n- do you have anything on any of those few games today?
22:42
And then tomorrow, I guess you don't have anything yet, 'cause they're not out consensus-wise. Right. Yeah. Yeah. I typically don't bet Mondays. This is my catch-up day. Adjust power ratings, stuff like that. Okay.
22:52
Matt, always appreciated, man. And, uh, still looking at Arkansas and Clemson. They still might get it done. Yeah. Appreciate it, man. Halfway through the season. Can't believe it's already here. Yeah, man.
23:01
We all, we all look forward to Omaha. Thank you so much. Matt Grissom, everybody. Thank y'all. Grissom on X. Collegebaseballinsiders.com. He does a great job, man. There's... It's a sport that was- Oh, yeah...
23:11
that was not catered to in the way it ought to be, and he's sort of filling a vacuum with it. Yeah, doing a great job with the site. Yeah. And man, it's been, it's been great having him on the show the past couple years.
23:19
Wes Reynolds will join us on the other side. His thoughts on the Final Four, the tournament gone by, and of course Min-woo Lee, another long shot winner for Wes, and in parentheses Kelly as well. Spanky as well.
23:32
Coming up on a Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. The numbers tell the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
23:49
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlan in the hizzy- Hey...
24:00
on this Monday morning. Uh, still to come, Spanky this hour and, uh, Wes Reynolds here, uh, joining us. First, though, we get tweets at BetTheBook. Um, this is from Trip Tepper. Trip Tepper, who says...
24:12
Oh, I've lost the Trip Tepper tweet. Uh, he says, uh, "If you think Harlan undersold the Florida rally," and I do Now he's speaking my language. He says, "Just imagine Grant Hill during that game."
24:21
Yes, oh no, I've, I've, I've been on board with this. He said, "Well, Raph, that was quite the comeback by the Gators. Grant Hill is a wonderful human- [laughs]... but can he please say something compelling once?"
24:30
Trip is, uh, is echoing my every thought on Grant Hill, as I've said on this show many times. Uh, let's see.
24:36
Joe Abraham, "If books ever start posting college softball like they do baseball, those who follow the sport closely will likely have a big advantage on the books. It comes down to predicting who will pitch that day.
24:45
Chance Copper Pot. All right, Gil, I know you don't care about this stuff, but if you're gonna have Spanky on, you gotta at least touch on the Twitter space's wackiness. Spanky is my favorite on there."
24:54
All right, maybe I will. John A. Cornell Jr., "Excellent segment with Grissom. Thank you for all the help with college baseball." Uh, you said very nice things about me. "Great with the guest info each morning."
25:04
Thank you. Thank you, John A. Cornell Jr. A lot of college baseball love out there for everybody. It always happens. It always happens. It, it really does. You- Whenever Matt comes on- Yeah...
25:12
or we start talking college baseball with Benny or so- you know, any of these guys, the tweets flood. Benny. I like it. Benny and the Bats. Benny and the Bats, talking about Ben Wilson.
25:22
All right, uh, Wes Reynolds is here, ladies and gentlemen. Always a pleasure to have Wes on. He's part of the glue that holds this whole operation together at VSAN.
25:28
And once again, after a just unacceptable drought of about a month without hitting a long shot bet in, uh- Loser... in golf, Min Woo Lee is his winner. Uh, what was your number, Wes? Good morning to you, first of all.
25:41
Good morning, and i- it's Min Woo Lee. [laughs] Gotta do the Woo like Ric Flair. Uh, 35 to one. Uh, Kelly with the, uh, with the, uh, Elton John, uh, songdom there, man. That's my gimmick, Kelly.
25:53
[laughs] I'm supposed to be the singer on the network, which is probably why I'm not on the network as much anymore with my, uh, great voice. Oh. Because you stopped singing, Wes. Yeah. That's what it is.
26:01
It's the singing. Yeah. [laughs] Um- Yeah... congratulations to you again, Wes, on this. Uh, the Masters but a few, but a couple weeks away now. Have we added any Masters bets? Uh, just a couple.
26:12
Uh, had, had Ludwig, uh, Ober already, and that's b- now down to 14 to one. Have a little Justin Thomas.
26:19
I'm probably, and I hate to do this because he's gonna be so short, but it's gonna be my, uh, annual yearly donation, at least in some shape or form, on Rory McIlroy. I'm probably gonna have him.
26:30
He's gonna be the second choice. And you know, is this finally the year where he completes the career Grand Slam? Uh, he's in good a form as he's ever been.
26:40
He's already won twice this year, won at Pebble Beach and then won the Players Championship.
26:44
Made a hell of a rally, actually, on Sunday, where, where it's like, uh, you know, I'm kind of monitoring the odds board to see, okay, okay, I've got the good position here. He's a substantial favorite with Min Woo Lee.
26:55
When do I get out, if I get out? Then you all of a sudden see Rory making the run. It's like, okay, not now, man. You know, let's wait for a couple weeks, okay, at Augusta.
27:05
And, uh, made a little rally, just kind of ran out of holes late, but we'll add probably the bulk of the card after the Valero on Sunday. A tradition unlike any other, the Masters.
27:16
Speaking of a tradition unlike any other, uh, Wes, there's something called the College Basketball Crown that begins tonight. And when I say a tradition unlike any other, I mean it has no tradition.
27:26
That's why it's a tradition unlike any other. This is, and you'll correct me if I'm wrong, as I understand it, this is a Fox Sports creation. They ha- they do Big East, Big Ten, and Big 12.
27:36
And if you look at the NIT, I think there was only one team from those three conferences that were even involved in the NIT. And this is basically usurping that and creating a 16 team event that begins today.
27:49
They're all at a neutral site. They're all here in Vegas at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. Um, they're all lined. They're available to bet. This is kind of tricky though, isn't it, Wes?
27:58
'Cause we're really not sure what we're getting with any team here. Yeah, it is, it is tricky, and this does extend from Monday to Saturday.
28:06
Saturday afternoon, I believe, before the, uh, Final Four gets started is gonna be the championship game. And you have 16 teams.
28:13
They are predominantly Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, because those are the Fox television deal conferences. There's a couple other teams, uh, that get put in there to fill out the field.
28:22
George Washington, Boise State plays today, Washington State, Tulane, uh, Oregon State. So there's a few others, but it is mostly those three conferences.
28:32
And what is tricky about this a little bit is how many players are going to be available for these teams, because the transfer portal, as we know, did open last Monday, and it is open, I think, I forget the date, until mid-April.
28:45
Like, next week is a dead, uh, I think the third through the 10th starts a dead period where you can't have visits. You can still contact and talk to players, but you can't have visits on campus.
28:56
So it's, it's really kind of funky, you know, how they opened this thing so early.
29:00
But it's like you can't wait until after the season because you don't, you don't, you don't know, uh, you know, you're not gonna be wanting to wait till, like, May and June to figure out who your team is gonna be.
29:11
So yeah, this applies, uh, in a couple scenarios today. One that really jumped out at me actually was the third game on the docket.
29:18
That's 8:30 Eastern tip, uh, 653, 54 on the rotation, and that's Nebraska and Arizona State. Arizona State I think is gonna have seven players because, uh, uh, one, uh, the leading- Jesus...
29:30
scorer on the team was dismissed from the team. And also, uh, uh, Jovan Sa- or Jasan Sanon has already committed to St. John's, so he's not gonna be playing here.
29:42
So you've got Nebraska laying five and a half to Arizona State. It's gone up a little bit from the opener.
29:47
I would lean Nebraska here, and I think I'm gonna bet that because other than Raleigh Worster, who is the transfer from Utah who has a season-ending injury, you got a bunch of fifth-year seniors on this team.
29:57
So I would think Nebraska is going to be very motivated.
30:00
This was a team that didn't qualify for the Big Ten tournament, and they, you know, you look early in the season, they had some really good wins and beat some really good teams So I think Nebraska and Fred Hoiberg and those guys are probably the more motivated bunch, so, uh, give me the Cornhuskers.
30:14
I like it. If Arizona State's only got, I don't know if you know this, Kelly, but seven players available, uh, by Wes' calculation, it's not a good thing. Sounds like a disadvantage. For Arizona State, yeah.
30:24
Nebraska minus five and a half, uh, tonight. And again, it's, it's called the College Basketball Crown. This is, uh, you know, the sort of adlibbing here with the tournament here, Fox driven with their three conferences.
30:35
Four of the s- of the six, of the Final 16, the only 16. Four games tonight, four tomorrow, and then the, uh, tournament continues into Saturday just, [laughs] just before the Final Four.
30:46
Is this one of these things, before we move on to the actual tournament, is this one of these things, Wes, where you think will be a staple from year to year? Um, do you think it will catch on?
30:54
I wonder what the attendance will even be like tonight. Yeah, it, it'll be a staple, I think, if Fox wants to put money into this thing. Uh, you know, that's what, that's what it is now.
31:04
Because they, they, they had the NIT of course, which is own- now owned by the NCAA, where you used to be mandated to, to, uh, participate in this event, and now you have teams basically that can opt out like players opting out for the bowl season.
31:19
They have the CBI, which they had last week in Daytona Beach.
31:22
They used to have another tournament, the College Insider Tournament, which was mainly for like the mid-major teams that, you know, kids that won 24 games and then they don't get to play anywhere.
31:31
So that was the tournament for them, but they didn't have enough teams, so they didn't have that event this year. So it's gonna stay as long as Fox wants some programming on the air.
31:39
So, uh, uh, we'll see how the Crown goes attendance wise over at the MGM Grand tonight. Does the team that wins this, uh, hang a rafter in their, in their arenas? Or do they get a crown? I don't know.
31:51
Yeah, I, I think may- maybe, maybe they do Hang, hang a banner. Hang a banner in the rafters is what I mean to say. M- maybe they do. Maybe they do get a crown like Kelly says.
31:58
Uh, like a, like a Jerry "The King" Lawler crown- [laughs]... that they can put in their, uh, trophy case at their, uh, arena or practice facility of choice. I, I, I do think it's fascinating. Like I can't...
32:09
I, I'm interested to see how this plays out this year, next year. I don't think attendance will be all that great, but I don't know that that matters.
32:17
If it's a made for TV product, like especially you're chasing gamblers these days, right? We've all just been betting on the NCAA tournament for the past couple weeks.
32:25
Any more college basketball, like you're gonna get people to bet and watch this? Well, you're gonna get people to bet 'cause we're s- we're ridiculous people or very specific people.
32:33
But you, you need ratings ultimately for stuff like this. Yeah. If nobody watches, nobody watches. That, that's what it's all about is the, is the TV. I mean- Yeah...
32:40
look, uh, we, we know just, uh, following some people that, that we know in the space that the travel's been down to Las Vegas lately- Yep... a, a little bit.
32:49
And, you know, for whatever outside economic factors, geopolitical factors, the fact that stuff is so expensive out here in Vegas, it's like, okay, we don't have to gouge on every single thing, parking and, and whatnot.
33:01
And, uh, people aren't, uh, are traveling out here as much, at least there was a slip in February. I don't think the Crown necessarily is going to turn that around.
33:10
[laughs] Not gonna move the needle is what you're saying? No. Did we, did we have negative numbers for the NCAA tournament opening weekends? Did you guys see any of that?
33:17
'Cause I, I actually felt like it was pretty, it was a lot busier than Super Bowl weekend. Felt like it. Yeah. Well- It felt like a normal March Madness. Yeah. Super Bowl was down a little bit.
33:25
Super Bowl definitely felt down. Yeah. Um, okay, uh, before we get to your Final Four thoughts, the tournament in general, Wes, talking about the March Madness now of course, um, is this what you prefer?
33:36
I know we all li- would like to see a bunch of upsets, but if you had to map it out from the beginning and you had to say, "Okay, this, I want my Final Four to be this," is this kind of what it would be?
33:46
I would rather my Final Four be this than to be a bunch of like randomness, I would say. But as far as the tournament goes, I, I prefer a mix. I prefer not to have necessarily all chalk.
33:58
I prefer to have, you know, kind of a team that makes its way through the draw that, that, that's not g- that, you know, that's a low, that's a higher seed I guess.
34:06
Uh, I was, uh, actually given a trivia question out on X yesterday @westreynolds1. I go, "Who is the coach that made the most Elite Eights?" 'Cause the Elite Eight is so brutal, right?
34:16
'Cause you're one step away- Yeah... from getting to the ultimate destination. Who is the coach that had been to the most Final Four or most Elite Eights and never been to the Final Four?
34:23
It was of course John Chaney of Temple, who had been five times- Hmm... since the tournament had expanded.
34:28
And I looked at Temple and I was like, they made the Elite Eight once as an 11 seed, a 10 seed, a seven seed, and a six seed, so you kind of like that dark horse a little bit. I think that that's always a good story.
34:40
But look, we have the four best teams in the KenPom rankings in the Final Four. So at least that's gonna set up to say, okay, that's a hell of a game.
34:49
Even one of them, Houston and Duke, number one offense against the number one defense. I'll g- I'll give my thoughts later, but th- we, we, we got four really good teams here, and, and I think I kind of prefer that.
35:00
Now from a bracket perspective, when I try to put a little bit of chaos into it, that doesn't do well when everybody's going with the chalk and they're getting rewarded this year.
35:09
Yeah, your trivia question, my in- I, I hadn't seen that and my reaction in my head was, oh, it's gotta be Izzo, right? But Izzo's been to nine Elite Eights. Six of the times he advanced to the Final Four.
35:19
So it's not him, it's John Chaney. Uh, we'll get Wes' Final Four thoughts on the other side. What he's betting, what he's thinking about betting. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
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