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Mar 3, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | March 3, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | March 3, 2025
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34:47
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. If you're one of those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
It is the Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:21
This is Kelly Biddle, everybody, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, live from Circa. How you doing, man? Doing great. How about you? I'm great. Good show. Yeah. Uh, Wes Reynolds will join us.
0:32
Did he hit another golf feature this weekend or not so much? No, I do not believe he was on Joe Highsmith. Okay. I was gonna say. It was- He didn't have Alonzo Highsmith to win the golf tournament? No, no. No.
0:40
That was a very annoying tournament for the long shots crew, or I guess I could speak for myself. [laughs] Oh. Did- didn't go so well that one? I remember our text conversation on Friday, it just continued that.
0:49
Like, every outright had a chance, but no, not in the end. Uh, Todd Bubba Horwitz will join us.
0:55
He is a, uh, a veteran options trader who will join us to talk about, uh, sports betting as it relates to trading, h- how you can become a better bettor. We'll discuss things with Todd next hour.
1:06
Uh, we'll talk first pick in the upcoming NFL draft, which we can now officially say is next month. Uh, the n- the moves this weekend in the NFC, Stafford, Deebo, we'll get into all that.
1:16
Carl Sack from Killer Sports to talk NBA, whatever he's playing today. Um, what a luck box win for, uh, Carl yesterday, and for those of us who, uh, tailed him. Did you see this?
1:27
Uh, one of his plays yesterday was the Lakers team total under. I was wondering what last night, I forgot what number he had gotten it at. It was 109. I got it at 108 and a half.
1:36
The Lakers go into the fourth quarter with, let me do the math here. Boop, boop, boop, boop, boop. I think with, uh, well, they needed 20 points to go over and for us to get sunk. They end up with 19,
1:52
which is just the luck boxiest win of all time. Yeah. Of course, Fezzik was on it. That's why it happened. [laughs] So I, so I went on, I went ahead and, like, did the math.
1:59
I went ahead and researched every quarter of the Lakers play this year. Uh, they had played up until the fourth quarter last night, 235 quarters of basketball. They had scored fewer than 20 points in 11 of them.
2:09
[laughs] That's crazy. Or 4.68% of the time before that 19 point output last night. A- and- So we're all winners... as we have often said, and you say a bunch, Gil, recognize when you're getting a little lucky.
2:21
Oh, my God. And like you said, uh, when, when Steve Fezzik's on the side, you, you know you got something going for you. He really pulled out his, his most, most ardent luck boxy, and he dug deep for it, and we got it.
2:30
I did text Carl, uh, yesterday. I was like, "I can't do it again, man," 'cause I was already in lockstep with him on Friday. I know he ended up on the Clippers on Friday. I had hammered the Clippers on Friday.
2:40
This Lakers team, man, oh boy, it is, uh, six in a row, second in the Western Conference, and it's, uh, I'm not getting in front of them a- anymore right now, Gil. It is, uh, it's impressive what they're doing.
2:51
Uh, Lakers end up winning that game 108 to 102, by the way. Um, okay. Uh, did you watch the Oscars at all yesterday? Uh, for, I don't know, 15 minutes when you and I were texting.
2:59
And the o- the only reaction- I, I forgot when it started... we, we had the same reaction. [laughs] The only thing we said, the only thing we texted each other is, "Good God, Halle Berry's gonna be 59 in August." Yeah.
3:08
That's it. 59. 59. That's all we have to say. Has not aged at all. No. It is incredible. The, you know what I had to do, though? You texted me.
3:16
I kind of forgot they had started, so I flipped it on after you and I were texting. It started, like, 4:00 PM our time.
3:20
Yeah, but, like, you know, it's, it feel like, it feels like it's nine hours of red carpet stuff beforehand, right? So I kn- it's, it's kind of like the Kentucky Derby.
3:27
You never know exactly when it's gonna start because there's so much, there's so much prelude, so much stuff going on. Oh, I thought they started exactly at 7:00 PM Eastern. What are you- I don't know.
3:34
You're probably right. Well, I was sweating out clay in Santiago, clay court tournament. I was watching NBA, yeah. By the way, congratulations to everybody who ta- held on, uh, Lazlo Jerry- Oh, nice...
3:44
at plus 330 to win, uh, in Santiago, in Chile. Um, as we head into Indian Wells, by the way, this week, uh, tennis' de facto fifth major. The draw is today for Indian Wells.
3:54
I do a half the pod with Drew this afternoon, the other half with Zach tomorrow, then we'll put it in podcast form. Um, where was I going with that? Oh, the Oscars. Mm.
4:02
So, you know, I was sweating clay whi- watch- watching the Oscars. We should do a sports betting Oscars. Okay. Like, for best achievement in live betting kind of thing, you know, like, categories like that.
4:12
[laughs] I mean, we've done, like, award stuff before around it. The nominees are. Yeah.
4:15
And, like, Wishne- when Wishneff wins his award for best achievement in live betting, he, like, shows up on stage with, like, clothes that he's worn for six consecutive days. [laughs] He's like, "Thanks.
4:24
Really appreciate the award." Yeah, that's a true sports bettor right there. That's right. Really appreciate the award.
4:28
And he give, the impassioned speeches they give, he'll be like, "I hope that, uh, you know, uh, renounced Orthodox Jews like myself who come after me won't have to pay to watch the Summit League College Basketball package."
4:39
[laughs] Like, that kind of thing. It'd be a very different kind of show.
4:42
So, so the, the, one of the other parts of, like, why I kind of tuned out again, though, I, I feel like it's becoming more of this every year, but it's like there's a, there's too many, like, intermissions.
4:52
There's too many, like, halftime shows. Like, there's always, like, big shows that I just don't care about. Oh, it's, it's a very unwatchable broadcast. Yeah, yeah.
4:59
I- Unless you're Brian Ortega, and then you like that stuff. Yeah, and I just, like, that part makes me tune out, and then I turn on Clippers-Lakers, and I forget to turn it back again. Like, that's what happens.
5:07
I texted Ortega 'cause Demi Moore got, uh, she got upset for best actress, and I texted him like, "Oh, wow, Demi Moore gets screwed." He goes, "She did not get screwed," you know, he gets all passionate about it.
5:17
[laughs] I'm like, "Easy. I was just mentioning she was the favorite." She was- It's not that big a deal... she was the favorite. [laughs] She's- She's an upset... like, going all in on me. Mikey Madison deserved it.
5:26
All right. Yeah.
5:27
Uh, every Sunday, or excuse me, every Monday leading up to the tournament, the, the tournament itself, the big one, March Madness, the big dance, uh, which is now Selection Sunday, two weeks away, 13 days away now.
5:40
Uh, we started with the first installment last week, but every Monday morning, first thing, we will update the famous college basketball formula. Do we have, we worked on an intro for this at all? Nothing? No, nothing?
5:50
No. Okay. Nothing on college basketball. Okay, great. Uh, it's our tried and true college basketball formula, and again, we just update it once, uh, every Monday morning when we start the, uh, week on the show.
5:59
Again, the tried and true formula, six Bits here. Last 34 champs, more assists than turnovers. 32 of the last eventual NCAA champions, 32 of the last 34 had a head coach with prior Sweet 16 experience.
6:13
28 of the last-- By the way, the exceptions there, Kevin Ollie for the 2014 Yukon Huskies and 2023 Dan Hurley with the Yukon Huskies tw- as well.
6:22
28 of the last 29 champs went into the tournament with at least three wins versus teams in the top 10% of RPI. That's how long we've been doing this, that we had RPI as part of this.
6:31
The only exception, the 2014 Yukon Huskies, the Shabazz Napier-led Huskies. Last 29 champs had a top 75 strength of schedule. And then the two KenPom categories.
6:41
21 of the last 22 champs were in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom, the only exception being the 2014 Yukon Huskies. And 21 of the last 22 were in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
6:53
The only exception there, the only non-Yukon Huskies exception, the 2021 Baylor Bears, who finished 22nd.
7:01
So last week, uh, the three current teams that qualified to win it all based on those criteria, the, uh, the, the only three teams that qualified last week, uh, Kelly, were Auburn, Duke, and Houston. Mm-hmm.
7:17
Do you know who the teams that qualify this week are? Ooh, I do not. Auburn, Duke, and Houston. I was gonna s- [laughs] I, I wasn't guessing we were gonna have a ton of movement. You gotta be excited. Good job.
7:28
By the way, Auburn plus 340 to win it all. They're the short shot. Duke right behind them at plus 370. Houston at plus 750.
7:35
Now, once again, Florida, which is fourth on the big board at plus 950, the only thing that is excluding them from consideration here, or from qualification I should say, is that their head coach, Todd Golden, never coached in a Sweet 16 before.
7:51
Remember, there's been a couple exceptions to that, Kevin Ollie and Dan Hurley, both of the Yukon Huskies.
7:56
So if Florida is to win it, they will have to be the third exception over three decades' worth of ball to, uh, to get to the promised land on that. Some people believe that.
8:06
Some people believe they're gonna, that Florida's gonna get there and that they're the best team. So Florida's excluded on that grounds and they can't ma-- obviously, he's not coached in a Sweet 16 before.
8:15
This year's doesn't count. So they can't make up for that, uh, you know, that bullet point in the formula.
8:21
Um, the three teams that were closest, that were the, the three teams closest on the outside looking in from Auburn, Duke, and Houston, with Florida being the exception because they have the Sweet 16 disqualifier with the head coach, the three teams last week were Iowa State just on the outside looking in,
8:42
21st adjusted offense on KenPom, ninth adjusted defense on KenPom. So literally one ranking spot in the KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency rankings. Guess what? Iowa State remains 21st and ninth.
8:54
The closest team on the outside looking in, big win for Iowa State this weekend as well. The second team last week that was the closest on the outside looking in right behind Iowa State, Arizona.
9:06
Arizona remains a, uh, KenPom qualifier in everything else. Tommy Lloyd has coached in Sweet 16 before. That was last year. But Arizona remains on the outside looking in because of the RPI qualifier. Ah.
9:19
Which is they've only beaten Texas Tech and Iowa State. They lose to Iowa State this weekend. Their only chance before the conference tournament now, um, to, to make it
9:32
to the qualifier, to, to join Auburn, Duke, and Houston that is, is they still play Kansas. Okay. Okay. So Iowa State and Arizona remain the two closest teams on the outside looking in to Auburn, Duke, and Houston.
9:44
The third closest team has changed. That's the one change from last week to this week, which was last week the, the team that was in third position on, in terms of the outside looking in was Michigan State.
9:55
And Michigan State, despite, despite the buzzer-beater win against Maryland... By the way, did you see that? Yeah. Yeah. [laughs] It's unbelievable from beyond half-court. By the way, there's March Madness.
10:06
I cannot wait. We've, we've already had March Madness quality finishes in that Michigan State/Maryland game. Obviously, uh, Tennessee and Alabama this weekend was also a buzzer beater.
10:16
How Alabama lost at all in, in regulation, I have no idea.
10:20
Um, but, uh, Michigan State, despite that win against Maryland, despite their win yesterday, uh, they drop offensive a- adjusted efficient-- offensive efficiency on KenPom to 32nd.
10:32
So while they're spectacular defensively, and you hear a lot of Michigan State love, they're 28 to one to win it all. Mm. They did drop to 32nd in the, uh, KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency.
10:42
The third team replacing Michigan State is Clemson. Clemson right now, which is 17th adjusted offensive efficiency, 24th adjusted defensive efficiency.
10:54
So they're the third closest on the outside looking in, but that's the only change.
10:58
Uh, the, the three teams that qualified haven't changed and the, and the two teams closest, uh, remain the same, Iowa State and Arizona, obviously to the qualifiers, Auburn, Duke, and Houston, with Florida having the strange, you know, one category to themselves where they just can't get over it with the, uh, Sweet 16 qualifier.
11:15
Do you, do you have any outright bets? Uh, Alabama from la- I th- Okay... from almost at the end of last season. I think, I thought that was true. What number do you have on them? 18 to one. 18?
11:24
I mean, not, not tremendously better than it is now. Like, yo, I think this is... I know they're losing games here, but I'm like kind of okay with it, 'cause just keep drifting. I think I'm gonna get in on them.
11:33
Alabama 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency, Tennessee 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency if you're wondering about those two squads. We'll come back.
11:44
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12:22
Gil Alexander, Kelly Biddle at everybody, live from Circa. How you doing? What's going on? Yeah, I'm doing great. Doing great. I was just talking, I was talking about people, not really to you about that. Oh, okay. Yeah.
12:31
Well, I'm sure they're doing okay. Yeah, I'm sure they're great. It's Monday. Um, it is Monday. Well, Monday's not great. College basketball tourneys, by the way, this week. Yesterday, uh, w- began.
12:40
The Atlantic Sun had a couple games yesterday. It's March, baby. We're finally here. Uh, the Atlantic Sun tod- uh, ye- started yesterday. Today, nothing starts.
12:50
Tomorrow, it's the Horizon League, the Patriot League, and the Sun Belt. Uh, then on Wednesday, it's the Big South, the Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Summit League.
12:59
Uh, Thursday, Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, which is right here at the Orleans, the lovely Orleans Hotel arena. And then Thursday, it's... Or did I get to Friday already? Colonial Athletic, Southern,
13:12
America East, Big Sky this weekend. And then of course, next week, all the big conferences. Can't wait. Nobody this week at the, uh, the glorious Dollar Loan Center, whatever it's called now? Oh, that's a good question.
13:22
That's a good question. I think that's... No, I think that's next week, 'cause that's the Big West, I believe. Mm. I figure you're right. I think that's next week.
13:29
That's the same day where all, like, the, uh, you know, the Big 10 and the Big Easts of the world, uh, all start theirs. Uh, we will get some college basketball thoughts from Wes Reynolds a little later on.
13:37
Maybe he has some futures plays in some of these tourneys. First, though, the NBA with our buddy Carl Sack. Uh, you may know him from, uh, days gone by as the NBA guru with Dr. Bob.
13:46
Now you can find all his stuff at killersports.com and killercappers.com. He joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Carl? I'm doing well. How are you? Good.
13:55
I was just saying off-air, and I said earlier on the show, did you, were you watching the na- the, your cl- your, uh, Lakers team total under get home with 19 fourth quarter points last night? I was. I was.
14:07
I saw that, uh, missed free throw with about three seconds left, too. That helped. Yeah. [laughs] Yes. Yes, it did.
14:13
For those of us who had 108 and a half and couldn't get the 109, which would've been a push, that helped tremendously. Mm-hmm. That was a hu- a huge swing. Um, we...
14:21
Listen, the, we have to recognize when it goes our way sometimes and, um, you know, be honest about those, and, uh, recognize also that the bad beats don't necessarily, uh, outnumber them sometimes.
14:32
But if you're good, I always say this, 'cause people say, "Oh, these things even out." No, I, I, I disagree. I think if you're good at a sport,
14:40
most of those bad, most of them actually go against you, the close ones, 'cause you're usually winning with margin. Do you agree with that? I think that's a really fascinating debate mathematically. Um,
14:53
I will take 500 in those coin flip games personally. Um, I, I find that the years that I do, you know, have a down year, it's because I lost a ton of those close games.
15:05
But, um, yeah, that's, uh, that's an interesting debate to have. Okay. Well, it sounds like you d- It sounds like you're, you're, you're on the fence on that. I get it. Okay.
15:13
Uh, let me talk about some s- some stuff going on here tonight. Houston and OKC, uh, were looking at, uh, five guys on Houston listed as questionable. Ay.
15:24
What up with that, and is that a portent of things to come with the Rockets down the stretch do you think?
15:31
You know, so they've, they ruled VanVleet out yesterday, and then all of a sudden five guy- yeah, uh, Eason, uh, Sengun, Thompson, Brooks, Adams all pop up.
15:42
Um, I suspect that with them playing in Indiana tomorrow, uh, in an earlier game, um, relative to tonight's game, that they may just punt on this and just sit everybody practically and, you know, 'cause they're in OKC tonight, and I know, like, OKC's on a back-to-back, but they're, you know, they're about 10-point dogs and, um, so yeah, this is a tough one.
16:06
I've got some angles and situations that point towards Houston in this game, but, um, I've got a feeling that we're gonna see some more come, come down the injury line here later today.
16:16
The re- the reason I ask that is because if you look at the NBA standings, right, and you even mentioned this, uh, before the show,
16:22
Thunder are, you know, number one with a bullet, 10 games ahead in the loss column, right? Yeah.
16:26
Two through five in the West, with the Lakers being two and the Rockets being five, are separated by two games in the loss column, so one and a half games total, to be exact.
16:36
And then six through 10, which of course gets you through the play-in teams, six through 10 is separated by a grand total of a half a game. Half. Yeah. That's it. Right?
16:49
Talking Cl- Clippers, Dubs, T-Wolves, Kings, and Mavericks.
16:53
So if you're the Rockets, I guess because you're the, on the, in the five slot and you have a bit of cushion, right, a bit meaning a lot between now and the end of the season, five games in the loss column, you could conceivably play it cleverly.
17:08
Yeah. Yeah, I think, I think that there's a calculated...
17:12
Increasing your chances of winning tomorrow and kind of punting tonight might make more sense than, um, than trying to get both and ultimately ending up getting neither. Carl, where, where are you at right now?
17:25
Houston just in general, this is a team we were all pretty high on earlier in the season. Um, I, I think my expectations have come down a little bit with what, how far I think this team can go out west.
17:35
Uh, the other one I'll throw at you, too, then is the Lakers and how you're viewing them [laughs] right now with this six straight wins. How sustainable is this defensive play?
17:42
I, I've got questions, but man, they have looked impressive so far.
17:46
So as far as Houston goes, I, I was really high on them, and they were looking good, but I, I think that s- part of their recent slump has correlated with VanVleet being out. Um, so I, I'm still decently high on them.
18:01
Um- As far as the Lakers go, um, you know, I think a really, an underrated, um, uh, m- move that they made was ch- was trading Russell for Finney-Smith. Finney-Smith has been fantastic for them.
18:17
He brings a level of defense that Russell definitely d- did not. Um, and then they got Vanderbilt back, which is a nice little bench piece. He's a good defender.
18:27
Um, so I mean, yeah, they're playing really well, and, and I don't n- necessarily think it's a fluke.
18:33
Is there a, is there a team or teams that generally on a night-to-night basis when you see the market price on them, if you will, that you sort of nightly have rated higher or lower than the general market consensus?
18:51
Um, recently I think that the market's been a little, I mean, it's been this way all season, but recently still, um, Phoenix and Philly I think are overrated in the market. Um, I think
19:07
there's definitely been a number of games lately where I thought Golden State was underrated in the market, although that might be catching up to them here.
19:13
I'm, I'm, I'm gonna see how the injuries shake out on today's game, um, with Charlotte, but 'cause that line has caught up. Um, and I would say Boston is a team that I think,
19:27
you know, you, you gotta pick your spots with them. Sometimes, um, when they're, like yesterday's game, I thought that they were underrated. You, they're coming off of a loss.
19:36
Um, they're playing a Denver team that they had lost to twice last year, um, so I expected them to be focused. But also
19:45
in games where they're coming off of wins, they're just awful against the spread, and they've been awful against the spread as double-digit favorites too. So it's, it's kinda situational, I guess.
19:53
A math guy like yourself, when they, when they're beating Cleveland 25 to three, and it's sort of this big brother, little brother thing, and they come back, Cleveland does, and beats the Celtics, do you read anything extra into that, or are you so sort of agnostic on this that it just doesn't, doesn't penetrate your thinking on anything?
20:11
In terms of like how I'm adjusting my numbers, my, my base power numbers, no, I don't think it changes anything. I really just for the most part look at the final score.
20:22
Um, but in terms of how that game is going to stick in Boston's mind, um, I think it's, it stings. It's a little embarrassing, and I think that, uh, next time they play it'll be on their minds.
20:34
We have a 254, if I'm not mistaken, tonight between the Hawks and the Grizzlies. This has gotta be the highest total of the year, right? It is. Yeah, I think it w- the highest one coming into tonight was 250.
20:45
Um, and my numbers actually make this a little bit higher than the 254 that it's at. Wow. Although Morant is questionable, so that could impact things a little bit, but Memphis is, Memphis has pushed things all year.
20:58
Um, these two teams have the fastest pace in the league, and, um, Memphis is the fastest, and then since the all-star break, it, they still have a, uh, or since the start of the year, they still both have been the fastest team.
21:12
So they've continued to push. And like I said, even with Morant out, they will still, um, both these teams are still gonna run. What did you land on tonight, or what are you, uh, close to landing on?
21:22
What are you looking for? You know, to be honest, I, I need some of these injuries to shake out. I'm not wild about this card.
21:30
Normally I'll have a number of bets on in the overnight lines and, um, have some good positions that I like at this point, but I'm not wild about anything, to be honest. Um, I guess it,
21:42
you know, I think the Sacramento under is worth a look right now with Sabonis out. Um,
21:48
and Dallas has struggled to find offense, um, now that Luka's gone, and then Gafford and Lively have left a pretty big hole at the center of their team.
22:01
Uh, Powell came back and he slows things down a little bit, but, um, yeah, I think, I think maybe that's worth a, a look towards the under at 230, what is it, 232-ish right now, something like that.
22:13
All right, 231 and a half is where we have it right now. Yeah. Not an official play though.
22:17
Carl, uh, still, uh, trying to determine that, and again, killersports.com is where you can, uh, find all, excuse me, killersports.com and then killercappers.com. The latter is where you can find all of his plays.
22:29
Um, Carl, appreciate it as always. Thanks for having me on, Gil. You got it. Carl Sack, everybody, a man who moves NBA lines when he releases his plays, courtesy of Aggressive Guest Line.
22:40
We'll come back, back to the National Football League, thoughts on the number one pick. Where does this stand now? It's a Numbers Game at Feaster, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story.
22:58
They always do. So long to those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSIN.
23:05
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at Feaster, the sports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlet, everybody, live from Circa.
23:19
I enjoy our conversations that are two seconds before we come back from break. [laughs] So your, your in-depth analysis of the Wooden Award? [laughs] It's fantastic. It means he's yelling things at Gil.
23:28
So let me get this, this is- Gil's going, "Meh," yeah... this is a win, this is a free window into Kelly off, off air. Uh, so let me get this straight.
23:34
Cooper Flagg got taken out of a game and Jenai Broome had a terrible game. That's why it flipped? Okay, great. [laughs] Let's, we'll, we'll ask Wes about this momentarily. Yeah. We, we got tweets that beat into the book.
23:43
Three Jack, H3131, "Happy Monday, guys. How did Alabama only score 13 points in the final nine minutes? I'm not even sure I realized it was that few. I had over 77 and a half team total, and they got to 76.
23:59
Half court heave kills the overtime, but it shouldn't have even gotten to that point. Holding Mich- uh, holding Michigan State at 25 to one and St. John's at 40 to one."
24:09
You met these peo-- uh, not, not, not three, Jack, but have you met these people who have like, like 13 futures in their portfolios for the NCAA tournament? Uh, everybody I've talked to I feel like has a St.
24:18
John's ticket. I know, but like the people who have like... You know, it's like have y'all done the math on this? Like- I don't, I, I think I am out of, uh, like maybe one, Gil. I don't even know.
24:28
Like the NCAA tournament, it's just so crazy. Like I don't, I don't... I'm, I'm done kinda loaded up on, on futures and all heading into the tournament. I'd rather just bet them game by game.
24:37
MasterofPuppets, "Just an FYI, if you do not wanna drive to Palm Springs, fly Vegas to Ontario. Ontario to Palm Springs, only one hour. Ontario in Southern California."
24:47
Uh, well, we'll do Pal- I'll do f- you know, Palm Springs this time, see how it works out. James Sott. I am so glad you said Ontario, Southern California. Oh, yeah.
24:55
I was like, "Well, that's not-" I was like, "Well, this doesn't make any sense." [laughs] I'm like, "I'm gonna fly to Toronto and back."
25:00
Uh, James Sott, "Can Drew Dincic, whale capper, do the Indian Wells pod actually on a black diamond run for added excitement would set the bar high for Zach Cohen to match." He did not do it wa- a l- a couple years ago.
25:13
Was it last year or the year before? Same situation, he was skiing for the Indian Wells podcast. He was not mid-slope though skiing.
25:21
It wasn't a live action podcast, but he was out on the slope with his jacket on doing the Indian Wells pod. Yeah, I mean, for, for anybody- Yeah...
25:27
who's watched this show for a long time, Drew, the Drew and nature shots are- Drew and nature... yeah, some of, some of my favorite moments, yeah. And he just uses his camera. Looks beautiful.
25:35
He's actually very good with that. [laughs] And then Ban- Ben Handorf, "Hey Gil, do you think Cam Ward has slow eyes like Geno Smith?" Yes, I do.
25:44
Uh, also, "Care to expand on why you think Ashton Jeanty may not pan out in the NFL? Is it the level of competition, size, et cetera? I'd love to hear your opinion."
25:51
It's both of those things, and I could be very wrong about Ashton Jeanty. Um, but it is, you know, it is the level of competition. You know, playing Fresno State is not playing the Philadelphia Eagles, obviously.
26:01
Not to say that backs haven't come out of, uh, you know, poor competition college careers to be good NFL backs. Uh, size is part of it too. I just never watch...
26:12
The, the, I think here's the, here's what really sort of gets me about Ashton Jeanty. He was a big home run hitter, and that worries me, right? That worries me if you're...
26:23
And I get it, you know, some of those g- some of those games against defenses, he was grinding out, you know, sevens and eights.
26:29
But a l- but a lot of the games, I, I remember it just being, oh, like, like for instance down the stretch, it was a bunch of home run hitter games, and that, that worries me. Yeah.
26:38
If you're not, as Aaron Schatz often says with football outsiders, a moving the chains guy, way more valuable in the NFL than a home run hitter guy. So I don't know. Uh, you know, again, all this is projection.
26:49
I could be very wrong about Ashton Jeanty. I had him to win the Heisman, so I love the kid. Uh, he's a good kid. I only wish the best for him, but I'm not supremely bullish on him, let's put it that way.
27:00
Uh, Wes Reynolds may have some thoughts. Wes Reynolds, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together, joining us on the Progressive guest line. You can follow him on Twitter @wesreynolds1.
27:09
That's the number one. Wes, uh, no golf future hitting this week, correct? None this week. Uh, uh, Joe Highsmith gets it done on Sunday, a triple digit one that I did not have this week.
27:21
And, uh, basically what we have seen with golf, all the regular events, and this was one of the regular just boilerplate PGA tournaments, uh, the Cognizant Classic last week in Palm Beach.
27:32
All of these regular events, you have had average of about I think 70 or 75 to one pre-tournament odds hit.
27:39
So you've had long shots hit, but now we go this week to Bay Hill in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and this is a signature event or elevated event, whatever you wanna call it.
27:49
The official term is signature event. And you've seen the class players so far in the three signature events win these things.
27:55
Hideki Matsuyama at the Sentry out in, uh, out in Maui, Rory McIlroy at, at, uh, Pebble Beach, and then, uh, Ludvig Åberg at, uh, the, uh, Genesis, which was held in Torrey Pines this year.
28:07
So that's where you're looking at the board and it's like, "Okay, how far can I go down this week?" Because it's probably gonna be one of the elite players that's gonna get it home.
28:16
Um, d- uh, do you have any different feeling of this g- I'm just sort of throwing this out there.
28:20
Do you feel like this could be a year where it's just more random than others, or, or basically what you just said is, so the, the cream will rise at the bigger events?
28:29
Well, I, I, I think there is a little bit of both, Gil. I think there is a little bit of randomness, uh, and, and we've seen it so far this year.
28:37
And look, we're only two months into the season, so we haven't seen a player win multiple times yet. We haven't seen a dominance like we saw with Scottie Scheffler last year, and we might not.
28:49
We might not see that, or, or maybe dominance is gonna be a relative term where you win three or four tournaments instead of winning seven, eight, or nine events l- uh, like, like last year. So you will...
29:00
U- until we start to see longer shot players win at these signature events, uh, like Bay Hill, like the Memorial later this spring, like the Players Championship, then it's really hard to, you know, fi- find these longer odd guys, even though they have won in the past.
29:16
But in recent years, I just think with these shorter fields in the signature events where you only got 60 or 70 players, it's just so far, you know, it's so hard I think really to go down the board past the McIlroys and the Justin Thomases and, and, and, and Patrick Cantlays and those type of guys, which are gonna be in like the 20 to 25 to one range, because we just haven't really seen it come to fruition in the last several of those events.
29:44
As always, Wes' golf plays, uh, always released on Long Shots, podcast that he does with, uh, both Kelly Tilghman and Matt Brown. When do you guys release that, Kelly? Wednesdays?
29:53
Yeah, Wednesday mornings usually when it comes out. Wednesday morning. Sometimes Tuesday night. The greatest golf podcast there ever was. Hat tip to Brady Cannon- That's right... back in the day. Absolutely.
30:02
Um, Wes, what about some of the things that, uh, Kelly and I were just throwing out? What about this, uh, Wooden Award where Cooper Flagg now returns?
30:09
We just brought this up randomly last week when, when, you know, Flagg was the favorite. And the odds had started to come down.
30:17
And I was saying, I think, you know, I think Jenai Broome might, and plus money might be the play, 'cause I'm like, he's the best player on the best team in the best conference.
30:24
Um- And even though Cooper Flagg might be a better pro, that's not what this is about.
30:28
Anyway, the weekend comes, Ji- Jani Broome has one bad game, and Cooper Flagg-- Well, first of all, Jani Broome becomes the favorite after that. God, he even got to, like, minus 300. Did he get to minus three? Yeah.
30:38
And then he has one bad game where he scored nine points, I believe it was, and then, uh, and then Cooper Flagg is back to being the favorite.
30:44
Is there a bet here for you on this, or would you just keep fl- taking plus money every time? You probably have to do the latter, to, to be honest with you, and at least lock in profit.
30:53
Uh, uh, I-- If I were a voter, I would vote for Cooper Flagg because I think he has the best numbers and I think he has been the best player.
31:00
We know Broome, uh, missed a couple games in the conference season with the ankle. And look, he's certainly deserving as well.
31:06
But what we're seeing now with Duke, because Duke is such a brand name in college basketball, we have not seen a Duke team this good actually in a long time. Like, they're always kind of there, right?
31:17
Guys, they, they always get the one-and-dones, even when K was still coaching.
31:21
Now with Jon Scheyer, Cooper Flagg, consensus going to be the number one pick in the NBA draft, barring, uh, you know, a severe injury or s- or something of that nature over the next couple months.
31:32
But, uh, D- Duke, this has been the dominant Duke, and, and it, it's part and parcel of the fact that the ACC is really down. Like, now we're starting to get in all the bracketologies, right?
31:42
It's like, how many teams is gonna-- are gonna get into the NCAA tournament o- out of one conference, and you're seeing a three next to the ACC, where there's only, like, three sure bets right now to get in the NCAA tournament, Duke, Clemson, and Louisville.
31:55
And then you've got all these other teams, Wake Forest, North Carolina, and such, on the bubble. You know, last four in, first four out, whatever position that they're currently in.
32:05
So I know the ACC is down, but Duke's just beating the hell out of everybody right now. They're, they're laying 23, 24, 25 points, and they're covering with ease.
32:15
You're kind of thinking, "Okay, maybe this is the point to step in front," because that's the nature of college basketball, right?
32:20
You get on a roll, and then you kinda have a, have a down game, maybe your B or your C effort, and you just-- you easily win, but you don't just truck a team, and that's what Duke is doing right now.
32:31
And, and Cooper Flagg is obviously a large part of that, you know, a kid that's, what, only 18 and seems like he's mature behi- beyond his years.
32:39
He's not one of these freshmen that really have peaks and valleys and, and goes up and down. He's just been steady Eddie every single game.
32:47
So I understand why Cooper Flagg's the favorite, even though Auburn is number one in the SEC, I think by far, as much as I hate to say it, as a Big Ten guy, is the best conference in college basketball.
32:57
Would you lay the 19 and a half with Duke tonight against Wake?
33:01
Gil, I've tried maybe just a couple times, not every single time, to try to get in front of the, of, of this Duke team, and it looks like the market is trying to do it. But I don't know if I wanna take Wake Forest.
33:11
Wake Forest, by the way, every single year they seem to be on the bubble, and then they have an in- inexplicable loss at home.
33:18
Now, they survived on Saturday against Notre Dame, but a couple weeks ago against Virginia, it's like this is a game you gotta have. You just gotta get through it and get a win. It doesn't matter the margin of victory.
33:27
And then they lose. So you're gonna have Wake, I think, for these next two weeks on that, you know, last four in, first four out line, uh, uh, pretty much, and they're just gonna stay the same.
33:37
But the market's certainly a believer. But you get that bracketology, that Lunardi or whatever bracketologist, uh, you wanna put in there, you get that tax of, "Oh, this team needs this."
33:48
That doesn't mean you have to bet this necessarily, 'cause you're already probably getting a little bit cheated on the number. But the market coming in on Wake Forest tonight, but I'm not getting in front of Duke.
33:57
That has not gone well to try to do that over the last few weeks. Real quick, 'cause we're gonna have you for a second segment, but you brought up Coach K briefly, and it, it triggered it in my head.
34:05
Have you seen-- Will Hill recommended this documentary, We Beat the Dream Team. Have you seen this? I have not. Okay.
34:11
So it's, you know, Grant Hill narrating how the college select team, the first day of practice against the 1992 Dream Team- Whoa... they actually beat them, but it wasn't caught completely on film, right?
34:24
Coach K comes off as the worst person in the world in this documentary, 'cause he just will-- he refuses to let Grant Hill and his seven teammates have the glory of this.
34:34
He said, Chuck Daly, the Dream Team coach, threw the game. It was this whole thing. It was just so awful. Where is that on? Uh, I bel- uh, HBO Max, I believe. More with Wes Reynolds.
34:44
We'll see if we can get some college conference futures plays from him next.
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