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Mar 4, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | March 4, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | March 4, 2025
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44:43
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin evading security here at Circa. That's right.
0:23
We almost didn't make it into the show today. Think we would've been okay. I think we would've been okay.
0:26
We, uh, did a little show prep this morning 'cause I got here like five minutes early, so I decided to put the laptop down on one of these, uh, slot machines that sit, you know, that, that sit the laptop down perfectly.
0:37
Yeah, yeah, yeah. And you did right next to me and, uh, security pounced. [laughs] I think that drew some attention, yeah. They threw- Gil and I's offices are just way too far away. We are so menacing.
0:46
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, on the show today, Joe Peta out of retirement with baseball season win totals, the author of Trading Bases. Um, the man who used to be on ESPN Chalk back in the day before he became an author.
0:59
He is out of retirement. He hasn't done baseball season win totals in seven, no, check that, eight years. Eight years. Whoa. Joe Peta's returned to the show today. Uh, Jay Cohn on hockey.
1:10
Paul S- uh, Paul Carr will be here to, uh, talk soccer with us. He got all his bets.
1:14
And Will Hill on a plethora of college basketball tournaments, uh, this week in, uh, in the old CBB before the big, uh, conferences take place next week. But he's got plays.
1:26
He's got plays on these, uh, on these, uh, smaller conference tournaments. So we'll do all of that. A lot to get to here before that cavalcade of guests that we gotta talk about.
1:33
First of all, Kyrie with a knee sprain yesterday. Oof. Uh-oh. That looks bad. There's a lot of NBA players who got tweaked yesterday. Malik Monk, um, Jaren Jackson Jr.- Jaren Jackson Jr Yeah, he left that game.
1:45
Um, Kyrie left his game. Tyrese Maxey. Tyrese Max. I was like, I'm missing one other big one. Maxey. Tyrese Maxey. Uh, the Kyrie thing, we'll see.
1:53
I mean, 'cause that's obviously D- Dallas is one of the, uh, you know, teams striving to make the playoffs, so.
1:59
That was that one where all the reaction I saw post-game, and then this morning, I don't mean to laugh about this.
2:03
This isn't funny at all, but it's, it's the nobody wants to play doctor, but everybody's like, "Yeah, that's worse. That's worse than a knee sprain." Yeah. And I'm like, all right, well, let's not play doctor though.
2:12
[laughs] He did the Kobe thing where after Kobe ruptured the Achilles, he shot free throws. Yeah. He, he shot a couple free throws with a knee sprain. Um- Kind of amazes me every time they do that.
2:21
Well, I mean, with the, with the, I'll tell you, with the Achilles, the body goes numb, so you can do it. It's wild. A knee sprain might be different. Yeah. Um, SGA 51, tickled the strings to 51 balloons.
2:33
That's what we used to say at the old, uh, metropolitan basketball camp off Military Road in DC. Uh, 51 for OKC as, uh, the Thunder win their 50th game of the season.
2:42
Does that 51-point output put the MVP race to bed, sir? No. No, it doesn't. Um, I guess I've been waiting a little bit to see when there was gonna be a further separation in the odds.
2:54
We finally saw that move la- after last night in the 51-point performance, uh, by SGA. It, look, I don't think it's over with. I, I think Jokic, uh, his season has been so incredible.
3:05
The problem is where we're at now in this race, Gil, is it, it demands perfection out of Jokic almost every time he steps on the court because the Thunder are so good that they g- they're gonna keep banking these wins, and SGA i- is just one of the, one of the offensive, I mean, the offensive leader of that team.
3:24
Even if his stats slip a bit, all the wins that OKC racks up just go to help benefit his case a little bit more and more.
3:31
So like Jokic, it's just, it dema- i- he's still in it, but he's gotta be great almost every time he's on the court. Yeah, and I don't even know if that does it with these NBA players. I don't know either.
3:39
I don't know either. Maybe it's time to text Windhorst and get him on here. Um, Dyson Daniels game-winning steal in the Hawks win over the Grizzlies, 132 to 130, and his- That was awesome...
3:50
his, uh [laughs] defensive player of the year number crashes to plus four- 450. What are we doing? Really? Because he- Well, it's in, it's in conjunction with Jaren Jackson Jr.
4:02
going out 'cause he, w- when he left the game, his odds got a lot longer this morning too. It, it is in conjunction, junction with that, for sure. But it's 132 to 130. Really? [laughs] Way to go, Dyson.
4:13
[laughs] I was, I was involved live in this game several times, Gil, on the Atlanta side- Yeah... 'cause Jaren Jackson goes out.
4:20
You, you know, it was a high total, so you expected points anyway, so I was grabbing a couple be- uh, Hawks bets. I know JVT was as well. We were texting back and forth about it.
4:29
I'm like, "Dyson Daniels, you can go win defensive player of the year after that," 'cause that just like, I'm good now. I'm good, dog. Dyson Daniels, your amazing defense held the Grizzlies to 130 basketball points.
4:39
By the way, Michael Montesano's on Twitter, and he had this to say about Dyson Daniels n- uh, odds crashing. He was not, uh, he was none too pleased.
4:46
Is anybody gonna be more angry after this award season than Michael Montesano is? Blanket threw out of them. Um, here's what he said.
4:53
He said, "Trey Hendrickson," he made a football comparison 'cause he's al- he's already sick of making basketball, uh, comments.
4:59
He said, "Trey Hendrickson of the Bengals was number one in sacks and number one in pressures. The Bengals finished 26th in EPA per play defensively. He finished second in the defensive player of the year voting.
5:08
Dyson Daniels is number one in steals, and his team is 22nd in defen- [laughs] defensive efficiency, and his individual defensive rating is ranked 110.6. Not exactly defensive player of the year stats.
5:19
All we heard last year from experts was that Wemby was not on a top defensive team, and that's why he couldn't win the award. Daniels' team will probably not even make the playoffs. Play in, yes, playoffs, probably not."
5:28
That's our own Michael Montesano at Bets and Reps. By the way, I didn't realize, when, when did he hop on Twitter, last week? Last week he made his debut. La- last week?
5:35
I didn't catch the Twitter handle though, which is just great for Michael Montesano because- Yes, because if he's not playing basketball, he's, uh, in the weight room. Yeah. Yeah. And it shows. And it shows.
5:44
Um, anyway, there it is for you Dyson Daniels folks. Montesano just being logical.
5:49
No, he is, um, and this is, when you talk about some of these voters being blinded, like I can't, the, I mean, how much we've talked about defensive player of the year, Michael, [laughs] Michael and I twi- just texting so much about it as well.
6:02
I can't get to the window on this, Gil. But, uh, Mobley is probably just walking away. If Jarrett Jackson Jr.'s out for any ex- any serious period of time- Mobley, who we established last week- I know...
6:14
doesn't have stats anywhere better than he did last year. I know. And again, he's not gonna sniff Most Improved Player either. Yeah. He's gonna win Defensive Player of the Year, though.
6:21
Well, listen, if I'm being honest, all of this is all a distraction from tennis. Uh, yesterday, uh, me and Drew Dinsick did the first part of what's gonna be the Beating the Book Indian Wells tennis podcast.
6:31
Tennis' de facto fifth major, the BNP Paribas Open- Nice... there in Palm Springs. It's like a Netflix release. It's like a six-part series? Uh, it should be. [laughs] It, uh... Let's put it this way.
6:42
Drew is not on the sh- Drew is usually on the show here on a Numbers Game on Tuesdays, but he's skiing, I believe in Jackson Hole, he told me. Yeah, yeah. He's skiing, so he's like, "I can't do a Numbers Game."
6:51
But for a tennis pod, Indian Wells? Absolutely. So we d- [laughs] we did the first half last night. Zach Cohen and I are gonna do the second half, and then we'll throw it in podcast form.
6:59
This tournament starts tomorrow, so we're gonna get it up as quickly as possible. Live time check, as quickly as possible. So then, um,
7:07
the big revelation, first of all, this podcast, there was one personal revelation, then there was two that actually, you know, then, then the others. I can give you a bet that I've already made, okay?
7:15
But the personal revelation is I am an idiot, uh, because, 'cause remember how yesterday I was like, "Oh yeah, there's no direct flights from here to Palm Springs"? Yeah.
7:23
Drew casually was like, I believe Roger emailed later. I was like, "Roger, I- Yeah, we got the-... let me get your last name." Yeah, we got an email about that, yeah. We got an email about this.
7:29
But Drew told me yesterday, this is where I first found out, he's like, "You know Southwest has a direct flight twice a day from, [laughs] from Las Vegas?" I'm like, "What?"
7:35
I always check Southwest when I, when I book flights. I don't know why I forgot to do it this time. So I immediately canceled all my other flights.
7:42
They didn't give me, uh, refunds, but they gave me credit, and now I'm on Southwest. I was wondering how you messed that up, 'cause- I'm so stupid... I mean, don't you- That's fine...
7:48
don't you go to, uh, like, one of the flight, like, the Priceline or whatever first? I do, but you know what? The one I go to does not include Southwest- Oh, okay, okay... so I have to go to the other one.
7:56
I was wondering about that too- Yeah... 'cause one or two of those sites does not, right? Travelocity does not. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
8:02
'Cause I usually start with those, and then a lot of the times I just end up on the airline site- Yeah... booking it. That's what I usually do, and somehow I forgot to get there. Anyway, that's the first revelation.
8:10
The second revelation is, uh, f- before we even got into the, uh, the, the picks themselves and our thoughts themselves, and again, it'll be out on the Beating the Book podcast feed here, uh, coming up, so I'm not gonna give out e- everything, but I will give you the one bet that I have made so far.
8:23
Um, first of all, for those who don't know, typically Indian Wells in Palm Springs, it is a hard court, but it has for the last 25 years been the slowest hard court, a- among the slowest, if not the slowest, on tour.
8:35
It's like a gritty, sandy sort of surface, sort of appropriate for Palm Springs. Uh, and they decided, uh, no one knew this was coming, on Sunday, two days ago, all over, uh, social media for all of the tennis hardos.
8:46
By the way, you should have seen, like, all the tennis hardos waiting for the draw to be announced yesterday. It is so comical how- Oh, yeah... how people are fiending for it.
8:54
But anyway, they decided, Indian Wells did, uh, they're gonna change their surface to, um, by the way, you know, Kelly, that they've been using Plexipave, Plex- Plexipave for the last 25 years. You knew that.
9:05
Not the, not the Har-Tru? Tru-Hard? No. Har-Tru is a combination- Har-Tru?... of clay and, uh, hard. No, this is Plexipave. Har-Tru from a court in, uh, where is it? Virginia, I thought it was.
9:14
Virginia, North Carolina somewhere. Yeah, somewhere in there. Yeah. Somewhere in there. They switched to Laykold.
9:18
Laykold is what they use in Miami and at the US Open, and the, the press release was like, "By tailoring our courts to match the playing conditions, we've enabled tennis to move seamlessly around the world.
9:26
This cross-continental consistencely, uh, consistency ensures that within and between events, all courts are equal, and the tennis comes down to the players. That's good for everyone." No, it's not.
9:34
We hate it, especially bettors. Why? Why did you do this? Who was clamoring for this? Even fans hate this. Anyway, so it's supposed to be a little faster, and the ball should bounce a little lower.
9:44
But anyway, it's kind of like a Carlos-proofing and an Iga-proofing of the courts 'cause Carlos has won the last two. Iga has won two of the last three. Oh, that's a good call. Yeah.
9:53
Um, by the way, let's start on the women's side. Aryna Sabalenka is the num- is the short shot at plus 450, world number one. Iga, world number two, is at five to one.
10:01
The reason for that is good, because Sabalenka has a cake quarter. Quarter number one for Aryna, she is going to coast, uh, into the, uh, semifinals. It's super easy for her. Um, but I didn't make a bet yet.
10:13
Because these are just coming in, I was only able to make one bet so far, and that is a quarter bet. The quarter bet is only available, at least as we came on the air this morning, at MGM.
10:24
Good on MGM, by the way, for being the first to market with these. Yeah. Um, and they're, and as you said, they're kinda consistently becoming the first to market with quarter bets in these tournaments. Uh, I go to Q2.
10:37
Q2, so this is not an outright bet. This is a quarter bet that I made on, this is a quarter, this is Coco Gauff's quarter. Coco can barely win matches right now. She's a mess.
10:48
Uh, in her quarter also Emma Raducanu, Amanda Anisimova, Maria Sakkari, Diana Shnaider, Emma Navarro, um, Donna Vekic, Elise Mertens, Madison Keys, the Australian Open champion.
10:59
By the way, Keys never does well here, um, because of the slower courts. Belinda Bencic is the play. Belinda Bencic, the Swiss, uh, player, uh, who I got at six to one to win Q2.
11:14
It is a packed quarter, but she should not be six to one, nor should she be five to one, which is what her current number is. Drew has another way to bet this, uh, on the podcast.
11:23
Drew also has a play on the men's side on the podcast. The numbers weren't out yet.
11:28
The odds weren't out yet when we recorded, so I'm gonna push you to the podcast to get all the information as to what we're both thinking beyond that.
11:36
But the one bet that I have put in pocket already, and the one that I'm willing to share here, Belinda Bencic to win quarter two of Indian Wells, which starts tomorrow. Got her at six to one.
11:46
She plays Anisimova potentially in round two. That will be a big one. Coming back here on a Numbers Game.
11:57
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network If you wanna bet smarter, and I know you do, start with smarter insights.
12:03
Right now, you can check out articles like Sun Belt, Patriot and Horizon Tournament previews, Greg Peterson's best bets in college basketball. Can we get Hoops on here, by the way?
12:12
Mike Sabich's early Kentucky Derby contenders, and later today you can check out Zach Cohen's best bets in the NBA, Jonathan Davis' NHL best bets, and Tyler Shoemaker's best college basketball bets.
12:22
To get access to all the articles on vsin.com right now, you can sign up for as little as 9.99. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today.
12:30
How annoying is it that I, uh, randomly say in the middle of a, "Hey, can we get this guy on?" Uh [laughs] And then I don't let you answer.
12:34
[laughs] The b- the best part about the first two segments, Gil, we might have a better chance with Brian Windhorst than Greg "Hoops" Peterson. [laughs] Why? Why is that? This is, this is Hoops' sleeping time.
12:46
This is, this is like- Wait a minute... the humans in Hoops' sleeping time. Wait a minute. Hoops, but Hoops, uh, doesn't do the four hours anymore. I, I don't... Yeah, I, I'll try him. All right.
12:53
I'll try him and see what he says. Yeah, he's a tough guest to get, that Hoops Peterson. Okay. Uh, ladies and gentlemen, again, I, uh, mentioned this last segment. It has been eight years, count 'em, eight...
13:03
I love when people say that. Count 'em, eight years since this man has, uh, released Major League Baseball season win totals. Uh, he has been on a, uh, different journey since then that, uh, went through golf analytics.
13:13
You may remember his 2019, uh, Masters tour guide, and then he, uh, sort of, uh, went back into the financial world for a bit of a spell, wrote a book in that field as well.
13:24
But well, he's decided he's got time on his hands now, and he's got, he's got the sort of, uh, fever for doing it again. It's Joe Peta, everybody, author of Trading Bases.
13:34
You can follow him on Twitter, @MagicRatSF, a tribute to Bruce Sping- uh, Springsteen courtesy of the gre- of the progressive, pardon me, guest line. How you doing, Joe? Gil, it's, uh, good to be back.
13:44
We're gonna find out if this, uh, old dog can still hunt. [laughs] And because it's been eight years, uh, la- last time I... Certainly, we, we started doing these back on your pods in 2012. Yes. That was the first...
13:56
'12 through '15, I released on your pod, and I did all 30 previews on my blog, and then moved to ESPN. But, but one big difference, Gil, I now need these- [laughs] Ooh... to do, to, to do these previews.
14:08
So, uh, it, that, it, the, the age is showing. Well, maybe that will just sharpen the vision that much more on these. L- so you have a bunch of these, I'm told. I do not know what they are. Um, so let's launch into them.
14:20
You can start wherever you want. Yeah. No, I, I, I, uh, understand that, that Kelly has the graphic. I gave him, him... And I believe the first one up, uh, we're gonna start with the New York Yankees, Gil.
14:30
Um, that's gonna be an under, a 91.5 play. I will say, when I was do- a- all these are based on where Circa had, had their, uh, -110, -110 markets priced yesterday.
14:41
Uh, this is the only one that had moved over the weekend. When I started it was 92.5. And simply the play is here. The Yankees were a 94-win team last year.
14:49
Um, that's about as, as I saw them too, factoring out all the, you know, sort of luck factors. Um, but one thing you know is that war is, uh, calculated in a context neutral, uh, as it should be.
15:03
In a context, it, everything is, attempts to be context neutral. Uh, so you see that the Yankees are losing Juan Soto, which is w- you know, an eight war player. But honestly, Gil,
15:13
h- he's worth more than eight war to the Yankees because the on-base percentage that he creates in a league average environment is worth eight war, et cetera, but the Yankees had way more power than a league average team.
15:28
Taking Juan Soto's on-base percentage off that team I think's gonna cost them more than, and I'm quite confident it's gonna cost them more than eight wins. Most of it, uh, well, that'll just be on the offensive side.
15:40
I see the runs allowed essentially projecting the same as last year. I look at this as an 87-win team. So that, that's the first play.
15:47
Under New York Yankees, uh, 91.5 is where it was at Circa currently and, and yesterday. But it had dropped a game, so there might be steam elsewhere. I love this already.
15:57
I'm, I'm in heaven right now with this nerdy kind of stuff.
15:59
By the way, and just to, uh, clarify what you were saying earlier, taking out all the luck factor, what you're referring to there is sequencing, pythag, that kind of thing that I talked about last week. Yep. Yeah.
16:08
Exactly. You did. And, and we'll, I'll go into it a little more in a couple... well, the next team, the second play here is where it really comes into play.
16:15
Uh, you would think this is correlated, but it's not supposed to be. This isn't, uh, presented as a correlated play. But the second play is the, uh, Red Sox over 86.5 wins.
16:24
Um, Gil, the Red, the Red Sox were a 500 win team last year, but they were one of the most unlucky in baseball in terms of turning their actual production into runs, runs allowed, and therefore wins.
16:36
They had horrible, uh, their pythag luck was right in, in line, but their cluster luck on both sides of the ledger, especially in runs allowed, uh, was, was quite damning.
16:48
Um, I really looked at them as a high 80 win team in terms of the talent they had in the field, and of course they're adding Alex Bregman to the, to the equation this year.
16:57
If they can get Rafael De- uh, Devers off third base, um, and i- I know he doesn't want to, but there's a back tweak and an injury that might allow everybody to save face.
17:07
They'll be a little better on defense as well, and they were, uh, a- an under, uh, under average defense team last year. Put it all together, this is my favorite over, uh, in the American League.
17:18
I think they're, I think it's actually a nice play for the American League East, uh, to win the American League East as well. Uh, so the Red Sox over 86.5's the second play. Yeah, that was gonna be the follow-up.
17:28
Does that then, then translate to a Red Sox win the AL East bet for you? Sounds like it does. Certainly in from the odds that are out there, yes. Certainly from a value perspective, yes. Now, Baltimore's really good.
17:39
Okay. D- they'll, you know, I'm not, I'm not shading them. Um- Cluster, and cluster luck we're using as a euphemism for sequencing. Yes, that's right. Okay. That, that's correct. All right.
17:49
Um, the third play is, uh, also in the American League, also an over that I really like, [laughs] and again, this time we're talking about pythag luck more than anything. Uh, it's the Seattle Mariners over 85.5 wins.
18:01
Gil, I love this. I love this. Do you know why the Mariners didn't make the playoffs last year?
18:07
They were the, what, the seventh team in a six team, uh, playoff field Because they only played the White Sox six times last year, and everybody in the American Central played them 13 times.
18:19
And that is why Kansas City, Detroit, a- a- and to a lesser extent Cleveland, but really Kansas City and Detroit. Uh, Kansas City went 12 and one against the White Sox. Detroit went 10 and three.
18:29
The Tw- the Twins went 12, or the Twins went, uh, uh, 12 and one.
18:34
Um, and the Mariners went six and one, and that's all you need to know about why they didn't make the playoffs, and they were even better than their 85 wins last year. They're sneaky good.
18:44
I like Juan, uh, uh, Juan, uh, uh, Gu- uh, Rodriguez, um, as a, uh, Julio Rodriguez, excuse me- Julio Rodriguez, yep... as a, as a, you know, li- you know, mid-shot, uh, American League MVP play. Um- All right.
18:58
And this is the beauty of baseball, too, because with each one of these, if you choose not to play, you know, if you're like, "Okay, well, that's what Joe likes on a season win total," but you could look for markets of the Mariners making the post-season, right, other things as well.
19:11
That's right, especially because Texas is taking some air out of the room there, uh, based on their, y- you know, they are gonna be improved.
19:17
They had such a terrible injury, uh, situation last year, and if deGrom comes back and, you know, and pitches like deGrom, uh, they are better. But that is really creating some value on Seattle's pricing. All right.
19:28
Um- Let's sque- let's squeeze one more in here before the break. Oh, okay. Oh, okay, I'm sorry. I was trying to squeeze them all in. Oh.
19:33
Um, the, the fourth one then, and, and I didn't have a lot to say about this, but this is really again a play on how, uh, look, we all loved the story of Cleveland, Detroit, um, and Kansas City last year.
19:48
I was rooting for Detroit and Kansas City to get in the playoffs. Love it when the playoff field gets, gets, you know, shifted around.
19:54
But the fact is, I don't think any of them were actually better than the Minnesota Twins, not materially better. Uh, I think the Twins are the play this year.
20:03
I think there's gonna, you're gonna see a lot of regression from those other three teams, whereas the Twins, y- you should have a little positive regression going forward. Um, I like that market at over 84 and a half.
20:14
Um, that's really that play on the division. And you will see, I believe the Twins have the shortest odds to win that division.
20:20
So I'm not, you know, uh, uh, there's nothing, you know, truly insightful there, uh, but that's, that's the way I'm playing the American League Central. But it is the most bunched up division.
20:30
The A- the AL Central is at the top. Obviously, the White Sox, uh, don't make it from top to bottom, but in l- in terms of the, the top three teams, uh, even, what have we got?
20:39
The Twins, we got the Guardians, we got the, um, obviously, um- It's Twins plus 210, Royals plus 270, Tigers plus 270, and Guardians three to one at DraftKings. Yeah, so four deep, it is as tight as it gets.
20:51
And honestly, just anecdotally on this show, we've heard differing opinions on Cleveland. I, I like the under. Adam Burke likes the over. I think on this network we have differing opinions on the Royals.
21:02
Uh, I'm not sure that we have differing opinions on the Twins. I think most people, I haven't heard anybody be bearish on the Twins at all.
21:12
Yeah, the, the, well, the Royals, I don't, the Royals aren't a play, but the Royals regression is, I, I don't, uh, the fact that they're young can overcome regression because the aging curves, you're on the right side of the aging curves, right?
21:25
However, they had s- five and a half wins worth of pythag luck. They had cluster luck of over six wins. Uh, oh, no, uh, they had cluster luck, excuse me, on the, uh, on the runs allowed side of a couple wins.
21:39
Um, put it all together, uh, they, I think, uh, uh, I think they're a 500 team. I think they're, essentially their runs allowed look about like their runs scored is, are, are gonna be.
21:51
Um, so yeah, and, and, and I'm, I will be the tiebreaker on the Guardians, uh, Gil, when we come out of the, uh, the break. Oh, no. Um, so we'll see, uh- Okay... uh, that- Tiebreaker, oh...
22:02
and, and it is, it is a high conviction, uh, play as well. Um, so- Ooh. Oh, no. [laughs] We'll, we'll- Oh, no. I'm scared... we'll tease that out of the break. [laughs] Excellent.
22:11
You have the Guardians coming up and then some other team. Uh, Joe's still got a couple more season win totals. Let's recap what he's given already. Uh, he's on the Yankees under, Yankees under 91 and a half.
22:21
That moved a game even this weekend. He's still on the under at 91 and a half. Red Sox over 86 and a half. Mariners over 85 and a half. And the Twins over 84 and a half.
22:31
A very American League heavy list from Joe Peta with at least one more American League team to come. Joe Peta on the other side. Continuing Major League Baseball season win totals.
22:42
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23:07
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23:19
Always appreciate the, uh, feedback from folks. Michelin at Michelin Man Boy. I like that one. [laughs] I like that one. "Well, that was quick. Bencic quickly moves to four to one to win quarter two. We still like?"
23:31
Uh, no, we don't, quite frankly. Six to one, five to one, I would not play it at four to one necessarily because at that point you're just getting to let's just money line rollover time.
23:42
Um, by the way, her money line rollover is going to be far better than the six to one, even within that quarter. Drew and I talk about this extensively on the podcast. Um, so that is an alternate way to play it.
23:53
I just wanted to lock in a, uh, six to one or a five to one on that. Four to one, probably not. Uh, Chris Heath, "I was just gonna say despite the ongoing joke that he'll sleep when he's dead, I agree with Kelly.
24:04
I think this is the actual time that Greg Peterson sleeps." It is, but don't you wanna come on the radio? Don't you wanna come on the old, uh, TV and talk college hoops? It's your time of year Yeah, maybe it's me.
24:15
Uh, Arrel, "We all know Hoops Peterson doesn't sleep. He's already two coffees and one energy drink in to start the day." That's what I thought.
24:22
Uh, Joe Peta kind enough to, uh, join us for a couple segments here this morning. You can follow him on Twitter at MagicRatSF.
24:28
Uh, before we get back into your season win totals, so let me just sort of give context for folks who are listening, uh, for the first time on Sirius XM channel 158 and others who may not know you, which is, uh, you, you sort of gave some earlier, which is, uh, I, I learned of you from the, the Squarespace blog you were writing, uh, tradingbases.squarespace.com.
24:47
I was like, "Who's this guy doing these awesome baseball season win totals in the way that you did them?" You, you, uh, included a lot of pop culture references.
24:54
You came on, uh, the Betting Dork podcast and the Beating the Book podcast. You would give your season wins. You end up working for ESPN Shock.
25:01
You also become an author, Trading Bases, which is a book about baseball or rekindling your love for baseball.
25:07
Uh, then you sort of went into golf and, um, these were proprietary stats at the Masters, but you ended up getting them for the 2019 Masters Tour Guide. And then what happened from there? Catch us up.
25:21
Shortly after that, Gil, after I had done the baseball for six years and then moved to golf, uh, 'cause I had a full-time job and you c- you know, I kinda had to pick one hobby and, and I saw some green field in golf.
25:32
And then after spending '18 and '19 on golf, culminating with the book, right after the Masters, I g- I, uh, was offered a job with, uh, Steve Cohen hired me, uh, to bring sports analytics thinking into his hedge fund in terms of evaluating his portfolio managers.
25:50
Well, that was in 2019- Steve, Steve Cohen, we should, uh, clarify, Steve Cohen, the owner of the New York Mets, uh- And that's the next- That's right...
25:56
step in the process, was shortly after I got there, he, he pulled me into the inner circle of planning the Mets transaction to purchase the Mets.
26:04
Um, so that really necessitated, uh, by Fiat, uh, a completely, uh, cold turkey as, as, as far as, uh, not just baseball betting, but I just shut off sports betting for a couple years.
26:16
Um, and, uh, of course COVID hit then and, and, uh, I did a couple, I, you know, I worked for him a couple years. And then by 2022, um, I then, you know,
26:28
uh, more or less have, have retired since then, uh, from full-time work and, uh, started... [laughs] I, I just never picked up baseball again.
26:36
And it wasn't until I heard Roxy on the s- on Captain Jack's Super Bowl podcast- [laughs]... tell the greatest story about, he was on with Chrissy Andrews, and
26:48
they were asking him what he was gonna do Super Bowl Sunday, and he's like, "I'm gonna be in line with everybody else, but I'm gonna be in line to bet more than the limit [laughs] on MLB season win totals because I know a supervisor will not slow down the line-" So great...
27:03
"to limit me." Yes. And, and I'm like, "Man, if Roxy is still doing it-" [laughs] "... I gotta try to pick this." That, that story just inspired me truly to, uh, sort of dust off the model.
27:14
So that, that's how we got here. I mentioned that on air, too. It's so awesome that, that, that's the clever hack for that like, "Oh, you're gonna stop this line with all these Super Bowl betters behind me?
27:22
Give me five dimes on this," or whatever the number is that he wanted to bet.
27:25
Uh, you also wrote a book, by the way, in the financial markets, uh, that, that I loved, um, which was, uh, The Money Ball for the Money Set, which was basically evaluating, um, sort of, you know, uh,
27:39
folks who were picking stocks, you know? Yeah. I- It, it, it's a, it, it's what the, my late career work was, which was, and it's all through the lens of sports analytics.
27:47
And I, I really explained in the book how, you know, baseball analytics and, and football analytics and golf analytics all played a role in developing this model and projection system that ended up b- you know, in the right hands in the financial industry is worth millions and millions and millions of dollars.
28:05
And my favorite chapter in the book is the last chapter in the book where I talk about Rufus Peabody, who has those skills more, i- in spades more than I do, right?
28:16
But I did point out what the return on capital is in the world of sports betting versus what it can be in, in this industry.
28:26
And what I'm really tell- you know, I always get advice from, yeah, people always, young kids are always asking, you know, you go to the Sloans conference, "How do I, what do I..."
28:32
Well, this sort of book is if you have these skills, there's only so many jobs in, in professional sports franchises.
28:41
You might be able to apply those skills in another industry, specifically asset management, where the payoff can be enormous. Yeah. We used to, we say that to Fe- I say that to Fesik all the time. So does Wishneff.
28:51
We're like, "If you're so smart, what are you doing here at spo- [laughs] if you're in sports betting?" We always, uh, rib him about that. All right. Back, by the way, I think that book is your greatest legacy.
28:58
I just wanna point that out. Um, back to the season win totals.
29:02
Again, Yankees under 91 and a half, Red Sox over 86 and a half, Mariners over 85 and a half, Twins over 84 and a half, and now I'm braced for the Cleveland Guardians. What do you got?
29:14
Yeah, Gil, the, the, uh, it's still sitting at 82 wins.
29:18
And I know you [laughs] you talked a lot about, uh, sequencing luck for them, uh, that, that, that they were very beneficial on both sides of the ball, and you didn't even get y- get into some of the other kinds of luck they had.
29:31
The relief pitchers had strand luck- Ah... way beyond their skill levels. By the way, they worked those three relievers to the tune of, of I think over 220 regular season innings last year.
29:44
Uh, uh, the drop-off is going to happen this year as, as talented as they are. It, it's just not gonna happen again. But the big regression is also gonna come on defense, Gil. They turned,
29:58
uh, they turned batted balls into outs at a higher rate and erased, and, and also erased base runners. So this is my adjusted defensive efficiency, which I used to write a lot about.
30:09
They did it at a rate that always regresses. Um, and they even played clutch defense, which is not a thing, but they played better defense when the relievers were in the game, therefore high leverage situations...
30:23
than they did over the course of the season. And on top of that, Gil, your favorite stat ever that we used to talk about, I don't know if you remember, in 2013, or 2012 when we first brought it up.
30:34
Guess who led the Majors in outfield assists last year? [laughs] I love this. And that- We used to talk, we used to talk about Alex Gordon being the man on this. Yeah. Well, and that was the only time it would repeat.
30:45
Yeah. If you have Alex Gordon in left field, and I, I still, it, it's sort of like having a great cornerback, though. Teams should just stop running on them, so it should not be repeated.
30:54
But Alex Gordon did, the, the Royals did two years in a row led the, uh, led the Majors in outfield assists. It's not gonna happen in Cleveland this year.
31:01
And if you think about ho- how high leverage outs those are, you know, it's similar to fourth down conversions being highest in the league. Um, so yeah, the Cleveland Guardians under, uh, 82, I'm fully on board with you.
31:14
I can't come up with a projection where they score more runs than they allow. Therefore, you know, under 82 is plus EV. 100% with you.
31:23
You know the one night where it didn't work out for the, uh, Indians bullpen, or excuse me, the Guardians bullpen? April 30th at Houston when Hunter Gaddis gave up a two-run shot- Oh...
31:31
to John Singleton and crushed our 65 to one. But at least I'm over it. I suffered with you, Gil. That was an incredible run. That was one of the most fun I had having nothing involved with it.
31:41
Just tailing you emotionally. Oh, it was fantastic. That was fun. What a ride, and then one out shy. All right, number six. You're gonna like the logic here, Gil, because we talk a lot about...
31:51
The last time I was on with an actual pick was before the 2022 football season, and I explained how adding Davante Adams to the, uh, Raiders was not actually additive.
32:02
Even though he was better than anybody else they could have brought in, he was not gonna be additive over the wide receiver one production from the year before.
32:09
And that, you and I have talked about this many times over the years. I know this is one of your favorite ways to think about things, too.
32:15
I got the Pittsburgh Pirates under, and everybody is like, "Oh, Paul Skeens, he was a rookie last year. Only played parts of the year."
32:22
Well, if you take Paul Skeens and assume he's gonna throw 190 innings of 2.50 ERA work, that is essentially going to gain the Pirates two runs in terms of runs allowed. He threw 100...
32:36
And by the way, two and a half ERA is well below all the projections that have him up in the, you know, 2.8, 2.9 area. He's awesome, but he threw 130 innings last year of 1.9, uh, ball.
32:50
He's only replacing therefore, and that's if they throw him 190 innings, and you know how they baby young players these years.
32:57
If he throws 40 or 50 innings, you know, you're replacing a 4.5 ERA for maybe four starts, four or five starts. It's not going to be as big a boost as, as you'd think.
33:09
And for Pittsburgh fans, it was not a good team last year to begin with, and Andrew McCutchen is not walking... Actually, I take that back. He is walking through the door.
33:18
[laughs] But he's walking through the door in his late 30s. Th- th- I do not, I, I think this is an over-hyped team. I still think this is a low 70s win team, and, uh, I really like the under 77 there.
33:30
Joe, we gotta do this regularly this year. Got to. We'll, we'll check in as, as w- as the season goes on. I love it. Congratulations on the Eagles again. I hate you. Ah, thank you, Gil. [laughs] You're welcome.
33:40
Joe Peta, everybody. Coming back. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on a numbers game live from Circus Studio, downtown Las Vegas. [clears throat] Pardon me.
33:58
It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin. Uh, have you seen this story about Hard Knocks? Have you been following the Hard Knocks saga? Yes and no. Okay. I mean, nobody wants to do it, right?
34:08
Well, nobody w- Here's the thing. So Hard Knocks went from, let's call it Hard Knocks classic. Right, right, right. Yeah. Right? Which used to be where, you know, in August before the regular season started.
34:18
And I don't know, I would say the best one of all time was probably the Cleveland Browns one, where Baker Mayfield was vying for the second string and Hue Jackson was just awful.
34:27
Um, and his assistant coaches were kind of, like, in rebellion. Um, and then they expanded. They did a pre-season Hard Knocks, and they d- well, first of all, they did an in-season Hard Knocks. Mm-hmm.
34:38
The Dolphins one was great couple seasons ago. And then they started doing a pre-season Hard Knocks.
34:44
And the pre-season Hard Knocks with the New York Giants, I would say rivaled the Browns classic Hard Knocks in how unbelievable it was as being a window into the brain trust of an NFL team.
34:57
Specifically, that their GM, [laughs] their GM, uh, Joe Schein, was basically, you know, you got to see the entire Saquon Barkley thinking.
35:10
Which, you know, on the one hand, right, um, on the one hand, what did I call him? Joe Schein? Is that his name? Um, on the one hand, it was sort of like,
35:20
you know, I get what the Giants were thinking, where it, it was, you know, you had to, you know, you're a bad team.
35:27
Do you pay a, do you pay an NFL running back a monster salary at that position because what does it get you? Yeah. What does it get you? So I understand the thinking. On the other hand, we got to see the owner, right?
35:38
Mr. Mara walk in there and be like, "You know, I'm gonna be real upset if, uh, he ends up with the Eagles. Just wanna let you know that."
35:44
And Schein had this awkward conversation with Saquon where he's like, "So Saquon, what we're gonna let you do is we're gonna let you talk to other teams, and then, you know, my hope is is that, uh, you know, you'll come back to us after you get that offer and give us a shot."
35:59
And you could hear, like, a preg- So awkward. Yeah... a pregnant pause on the other end of the phone, and Saquon being like, "Um, okay." Like, he wasn't agreeing to it. Yeah.
36:08
Like, Schein didn't get the, the, the agreement that he wanted.
36:11
Anyway, because of that, uh, because the NFL teams' reluctance to participate following last year's contentious coverage of the New York Giants, uh, it looked like the University of North Carolina Bill Belichick, Michael Lombardi, and the University of North Carolina were going to do the first ever college Hard Knocks offseason.
36:31
But negotiations have collapsed, Kelly. It is not going to happen. I can't believe it even got close. Fans and media are very disappointed.
36:41
The breakdown stemmed from disagreements over creative control and contract terms. It's got Lombardi's fingerprints all over it. I don't know, I have no idea, maybe it's Belichick. Yeah.
36:51
I, I feel like I was shocked when that was first even brought up, that, like, Belichick would want to have anything- I did too... to do with this. Yeah. Yeah. I can't imagine that he wanted to.
36:58
I mean, like, there's gotta be... I mean, don't get me wrong, I would love to see it, right? But there's gotta be some rough, like, transitioning from the NFL mindset to working with- Of course...
37:08
collegiate, you know, college-age kids. Can you imagine those conversations?
37:11
No, yeah, but that's what, like, of course we'd all love to see it, but, like, if I was Belichick, I'd be like, "I think I probably need a year or two here before we do something like this."
37:18
[laughs] Like, wouldn't that be the obvious answer? Like- "Coach, you got a lot of rizz. That's lit." [laughs] Belichick's gonna be like, "Um, what?" I love that co- "Do your job."
37:28
I love that commercial with the dad, like, cooking breakfast. [laughs] Oh, I ju- dude, can I tell you something? I do that to Gracie all the time. [laughs] I do it, I try to embarrass her all the time. Of course.
37:37
[laughs] It's one of the great things ever to do- [laughs]... is embarrass a teenager. Oh, man. Um, so anyway, that's off. So no Bill Belichick.
37:44
UNC will no longer be on HBO's Hard Knocks after talks, uh, between both sides break down. Just bringing it back to the Giants, and I know this is kind of more sports talk radio, but, like, what are they doing?
37:54
Like, like, it's a- Oh, I don't know... it, it feels like this is getting talked about more, but it just...
38:00
I, I don't remember the last time that it feels so obvious that a GM and head coach are basically gonna hold the franchise hostage when they g- when they're going into a draft. By the way, I keep calling him Joe Sean.
38:10
It's Joe Shane, by the way. Shane, yeah, Shane, yeah. Joe Shane. Um, uh, first of all, well, the Aaron Rodgers stuff. Uh, you right. I don't, I don't believe that for a second.
38:19
Like, if you told me that was true, I would be like, "What are they doing?" Like, what does that do for them at all? Um, but I don't know what they're doing.
38:28
But, like, if you, if you go out and draft a rookie quarterback, like, you've gotta be given a couple years with him. So their, like, I mean, their strategy, I... Or, or at least that makes it the most difficult, right?
38:42
Doesn't that make it the most difficult for ownership to fire you, is if you bring in a rookie quarterback, and then it's, "Whoa, whoa, whoa, hey, you gotta give us time to work with this kid."
38:50
I, listen, I, I think the Saquon thing upset that, that ownership so much. Um, and again, I, I actually defend Shane a little bit 'cause I kinda get it. Like, you don't... If you're the Giants, do you really pay Saquon?
39:02
I know where he ended up, and they ended up winning a Super Bowl [laughs] and stuff. By the way, they gotta look up at Philly and Washington now for- Yeah... uh, for how long, you know? I mean, and it's a running back.
39:11
I, I hear you. Like, it's, it's, if you're a running ba- uh, you could have a great running back. If he's on a crappy team with a crappy offensive line, he's not going anywhere.
39:17
Listen, it's all- He went, he went to the w- It-... the team with the best offensive line in football... all of their problems started because they paid Daniel Jones. It all started with that, right?
39:25
Because then you have to, at that point, if you're gonna pay Daniel Jones a top-tier salary, and we've talked about this a million times on this show, this is the cruelty of NFL economics where you have to make a decision, right?
39:38
Do we pay Dak all of this franchise-altering money? Do we pay Kirk Cousins all of this franchise-altering money? Jared Goff.
39:46
You know, the list goes on and on about these quarterbacks who, again, you can only win a Super Bowl if you're a Hall of Famer, or if you're over-performing on a rookie contract. The in-between is a nightmare. Mm-hmm.
39:55
And so the Giants decided, yes, Daniel Jones, who, by the way, they over-drafted at four, was it, that draft? Yeah, they're about to do it again. Yeah, they're about to do it again.
40:04
They are absolutely about to do it again. They're about to do it again. I don't j- They're absolutely about to do it again...
40:07
it just feels like, uh, it j- it just feels like this growing thought, too, of, like, everybody knows it's coming because of the desperation- Well... from the GM and head coaching position, and what, like...
40:17
I don't, I just don't know if you're, if you're the Bears, how are you, how are you letting these guys stay?
40:21
Like, if this is the, if this is what they're coming to you and telling them they w- that you wa- they wanna do in the draft, and in free agency, Aaron Rodgers.
40:30
As soon as they mention Aaron Rodgers to me, I'd be like, "All right," like, "hit the streets." [laughs] Like, like, you're done. I would too. I would too.
40:35
Like, you're clearly just trying to make a splash to save your job. Like, just, just go. Just go. Be like, "See ya." I'd, I'd walk... I wouldn't say anything. I'd walk back to my office and be like, "Get rid of him."
40:43
[laughs] Security. Uh, we did the women's, uh, we did- Oh, boy... we didn't do the women's side of the, uh, of Indian Wells earlier on the show, but I did mention I had one bet, in case you missed it earlier.
40:53
Uh, the podcast for Indian Wells, tennis' de facto fifth major, uh, in tennis paradise there at, uh, India, uh, Indian Wells, California, Indian Wells Tennis Garden, uh, in Palm Springs, or just outside of Palm Springs.
41:05
Um, gonna start tomorrow. The draw came out yesterday. It was just a fest of tennis hardos waiting for the draw. I'm sorry, what? I got way too excited, sorry. Did you see the Pegula story? Yeah, the Pegula...
41:17
Oh, it was f- by the way, I've never seen Kelly react like that to anything. The Pegula story's awesome for, for all kinds of directions because Pegula won at Austin this past week. All right, cutting to the chase.
41:25
[laughs] She won Austin. She won the singles title in Austin. It was a 250. She waits. Now, I don't know if you know this. Again, we've mentioned this.
41:31
Pegula is the billiona- she's a billionheiress to a $750 billion fortune. Her dad owns the Bills and Sabres. So she j- trav- she travels by private jet.
41:42
So she waited for the doubles final to end, and she said to the girls who were in the, uh, the doubles final, Blinkova, Yuan Yue, I think, uh, Zheng Shuai was in there.
41:52
She said, "Hey, girls, you wanna jump on the private jet? We'll all go to Indian Wells together." And they were like, "Bet Let's do this. [laughs] And Yuan Yue, Yuan Yue said, "I, she saved me ni- a nine-hour drive."
42:04
Yeah, yeah. And this, by the way, this is the biggest part of the tennis tour that people I don't think understand. If you're, like, not solidly in the top 30 or 40, the economics don't work on this. Right.
42:16
They suck, 'cause you're paying for a coach, you're paying for a physio, you're paying some g- some girls play for a mental coach, right? Whereas Pegula's like, "Hey, I got you in my private jet."
42:25
That's, I read some of those quotes, and it was like, "We were trying to figure out if, if we're gonna drive. Like, we'd have to take connecting flights." Oh, dude. Like- Trust me, they should check Southwest.
42:34
I don't know if they might have a direct. [laughs] So good on Pegula. Way to go, Jessie. Jess Pegula, JPEG. Everybody hop on my, on my PJ, on the old private jet. Let's go. That was very sweet of her.
42:44
Anyway, men's side, I haven't made a bet because, again, the draw just came out. These are, you know, the, the outrights just came out early this morning, as did the quarters. We were able to slip in a quarter at MGM.
42:54
But in terms of the odds on the men's side, this is Carlitos is trying to, he's trying to three-peat here. He's at plus 250. Novak, who is the second shot, is in his quarter. Oh, wow. In his quarter.
43:06
Uh, Sa- I was wondering why he was so low... the number one seed is Sasha Zverev. He's at seven to one, and then everybody else is double digits.
43:12
Uh, the only thing I would have to say about this, and I have not made a bet yet, full disclosure here, um, but as I look at the quarters, Q3 is by far the toughest one.
43:24
Rublev, Nakashima, Khachanov, Mensik, Shelton, Draper, Fonseca, Auger-Aliassime, and Fritz. Oh, my God. [laughs] Wow. Nine of, those are nine players out of 24 in a quarter, 'cause there's byes.
43:38
So Q3 is the toughest one.
43:39
If you are looking to make a long-shot play, that might be the spot for you, or it just might be too cluttered where you don't want any part of it because, you know, Bencic might have to take on Anisimova as the best round two potential matchup on the ladies' side.
43:55
This one would be Draper versus Fonseca. Yeah. Like, good God. How, how we feeling about how you and Drew, Drew feeling about Fonseca these days? Oh. Fonseca?
44:03
He's fantastic, but they did him no favors here putting him in Q3. Just, uh, just looking at the odds, did old Daniil draw an easy path or something?
44:10
'Cause I feel like those odds are kind of short from what we've seen on him recently. Yeah, he's in, he's in the easiest quarter. Yeah. He's in quarter two, which is Casper Ruud's quarter of all people.
44:17
Yeah, Medvedev got a, got a pretty easy shot, but Drew has a long shot in that quarter, in Q2.
44:22
And Daniil Medvedev's, you'll have to listen to the podcast, Beating the Book Indian Wells podcast, which we will put out right after I do my, uh, segment with Zack, right after the show today, so check it out for all of our bets.
44:33
We will come back. Will Hill College Baloncesto conference tournaments and games tonight. That's next. Numbers game. Vici- Vicis Sports Betting Network.
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