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Mar 5, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | March 4, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | March 4, 2026
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Transcript
0:00
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0:30
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The Sharp Plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting info, and alerts directly from the pros.
0:41
Scan the QR code on your screen for more information. The Sharp Plays at sharpplays.com. We got tweets, beat of the book. Larry Fresh, "I got Iga six to one to win Indian Wells after listening to the podcast.
0:53
Brain dead parlay hit yesterday and a breakdown on lanyards and stanchions. Gotta love a numbers game." Yeah, stanchions, lanyards, we do it all. JB Uncle Bush, "Iala 22 to one at DraftKings," he points out, as we have.
1:06
Yeah, I didn't think anybody else would have... First of all, we don't have DraftKings here. Nobody else, I don't think, has quarters here in town when I looked. Colin Murphy- Stations, 22 to one. Sta- oh, Stations does.
1:15
That's right. I always forget about Stations. Okay, we're good. Just told it to you, like, 45 seconds ago. [laughs] No, no, no, I know. I forgot again. Colin Murphy, "Let's go two in a row.
1:25
Let's go with your boy Chris Kirk first round leader. Florida swing is when he heats up, and he has a couple of low first rounds on this track." I don't hate it. Okay. Chris Kirk, good approach numbers.
1:34
Uh, he is a, if you wanna go the big picture, take a step back sort of thing overview, right, of just strokes gained total, like, in Florida, I think he's, like, third on that list. Billy Horschel's up there, too.
1:47
Dan Groeschel, PSA, "I got Iala to win the quarter 22 to one on DraftKings." Oh, and Tronsky, John Osher. So he's, he's betting at Bet 365. Did you see this? They put up completely wrong Indian Wells futures numbers.
2:04
In a good way? In, like, a spectacularly unbelievably bad... Right, well, good from... Good if they pay them. Right, yeah. I don't know what the story is. Tronsky's asking me why. Are they gonna... Yeah, I don't know.
2:17
I don't know what their policy is. He, he grabbed Iga at 28 to one and Nisimova 125 to one. Taylor Townsend the favorite at plus 120. Yep. Like, they completely botched it.
2:31
I know what I would do, and I know other gamblers would have different opinions on this, but, uh- What would you do?
2:35
I'd, I'd hit them, and I'd hit them hard, and then you're probably gonna plan on not being able to bet there again.
2:40
Well, if they, if they give you the deal of you can have this money, but you'll never bet here again- Yeah... I would take the deal. Like me and you have talked about. Yeah. Well, I'll take the money every time there.
2:49
Yeah. Take the money. Well. There's other shops. If it's significant enough, yes, absolutely. Nick Whelan joins us now. He is the co-host of Prop Points, which follows us each and every day, he and Jeff Erickson.
3:00
Of course, he is a Roto Wire senior writer as well, and he was the moderator of the MLB Futures Draft yesterday. He's also multitasking.
3:08
He's also taking care of his months old baby, who is at his, at his foot right now, I believe, lying down comfortably. Nick Whelan, everybody, @Whelan, substitute the one for the letter L on Twitter. How you doing, Nick?
3:23
Doing well, guys. Can, can exhale a little bit after, uh, an intense MLB Futures Draft. Yeah. You know, just herding cats yesterday with, uh, all the baseball experts on there.
3:32
I think we had, what, 10 or 11 people on screen at once. But, uh, felt pretty good about how it went. You know, would've been nice to, to be able to participate in the draft.
3:40
Uh, I, I see why VSiN did not allow me to do that. I wouldn't say I'm, I'm the noted, uh, baseball portion of Prop Points. But, uh, encourage everybody to go check that out.
3:49
I know the YouTube version is already up over at VSiN Live. Did Nick just say he would crush all of us if he was participating? Is that what just happened? I, I think he just said he wished he would, would have been.
3:57
Absolutely. It would, it would just be all Brewers. Yeah. Oh, it'd just be all Brewers. All Brewers. [laughs] Yeah. Every Brewers fan, yeah, he d- he was very excited every time, every time a Brewers thing was picked.
4:04
Yeah. Yeah. You had the toughest job, Nick, so great job. Great, great job. Thank you. Thank you.
4:08
Um, can I just ask you before we get into your, 'cause you have a bunch of props here in the National Basketball Association, some thoughts on some games.
4:15
Yeah, just I, I sort of mentioned this to Kelly in the first segment. So, you know, six tanking teams last night, and they all were tankerrific. Uh, in addition to that- Mm...
4:25
you had games that w- didn't even involve tanks, where the Spurs just obliterate the Sixers. What do, what do you have to say about this product at this point?
4:34
Is it more bettable, less bettable, or just as bettable as ever? I, I would say about as bettable as ever.
4:42
You know, I think there actually is some value in these, like, tanking on tanking games if you're, if you're following the rotations.
4:48
Um, you know, teams like Sacramento and Memphis have kinda fallen into some predictable patterns. You know, the Grizzlies, for instance, play just, they just play everybody, like, 20 to 26 minutes every single night.
4:59
Uh, you know, we, we did see the reintroduction of Ty Jerome, of Cedric Coward last night, so we'll see if that continues.
5:05
But, uh, I, I think the, you know, b- because so many of these teams have been tanking for weeks or months already, uh, you could track some of those patterns. Now, we do still have some unpredictability.
5:14
For instance, Trae Young just coming back tomorrow night for the Wizards for some reason. I have no idea, uh, why they're making that decision. Where did that come from?
5:21
I don't know if it's just to- Yeah, where did that come from? I, I have no idea. And it, it makes me wonder- And Adam Silver, you know-... is, are we gonna see Anthony Davis at some point for the Wizards? I don't know.
5:29
Hmm. We were convinced that we weren't gonna see Trae Young at all this year with the Wizards. Well, it was. With, within 24 hours you heard Giannis was coming back and Trae Young, Trae Young was coming back.
5:37
I was like, "All right, show me the email that Adam Silver sent out." Yeah. Like, this is- And, and Taj Gibson is signing with the Grizzlies. Take that, yeah. Yeah. Taj.
5:43
Uh, let's start with, uh, Giannis, since Kelly brings up Giannis. Mm. You have thoughts on Giannis back in the lineup. You have a prop on him tonight. Yeah, looking at Hawks-Bucks. Uh, tight spread here.
5:54
Uh, you know, Milwaukee, I, I think, has shown us for, for better or for worse, they are trying to win games. Uh, they're kind of stuck in the middle right now.
6:00
They've had a couple terrible losses these last few nights, probably their worst loss of the year on Sunday against the Chicago Bulls.
6:06
So it's gonna be an uphill battle to get into the play-in, but it's even more of an uphill battle to fall the way, you know, fall all the way down in the lottery odds to the point where you would feel good, uh, about your pick jumping up.
6:16
So I think this should be a competitive spot against the Hawks. Both teams mostly healthy. I'm looking at Giannis over 10 and a half boards tonight at plus 107.
6:25
Did play just 25 minutes against Boston the other night, but obviously that was his first game back. The game turned into a blowout.
6:30
Still went over this number against a Boston team that allows the third fewest rebounds in the NBA. Atlanta, on the complete other end of the spectrum, they're one of the 10 worst rebounding teams in the association.
6:41
Uh, one previous matchup earlier this season, Giannis went for 17 boards against this Hawks team. All right, Sixers boat raced by the Spurs last night by 40. They are hosting the Jazz tonight, the tanking Jazz.
6:56
You have a play on Tyrese Maxey here. Yeah, I mean, the Sixers are in a free fall right now. Like you said, got, uh, I guess we'll use the term shellacked by the, the San Antonio Spurs on national TV last night.
7:08
Kind of ruined what was a very cool throwback broadcast for, for NBC, but- Yeah... the Sixers are now one and seven straight up in their last seven...
7:14
Or one and six, excuse me, in their last seven games without Joel Embiid, who is still out tonight. Uh, they're 24th in net rating over the last 10 games. They're just four and six straight up in that span.
7:25
However, this is an interesting trend spot. Second night of a back-to-back, you're going up against a bad team at home. Philly's 10 and one ATS on the second night of back-to-backs this season.
7:34
They're covering those games by over nine points per game. It's also an im- important loss tonight for the Utah Jazz. Uh, they have the fifth worst record right now.
7:42
They're still in position to, to maybe move into the bottom four, where you get the, the smooth odds.
7:47
Uh, and their pick is top eight protected, so they're as incentivized as just about anybody to, to continue losing down the stretch. I look at this as a potential over spot, 237 and a half.
7:56
I don't really trust either of these defenses, especially without Embiid, and both of these teams have been terrible on the glass. So Adem Bona over five and a half boards is intriguing.
8:04
We saw Andre Drummond play only five minutes last night, picked up three fouls in those five minutes, so maybe they lean more heavily on Bona. Uh, and then you mentioned Maxey.
8:12
He kind of just has to do everything right now for the Sixers. When Embiid isn't out there, it's the Tyrese Maxey show. The usage rate is insane, so I'm looking at the over 43 and a half on the PRA.
8:21
Hornets at the Celtics, interesting Eastern Conference game tonight. Brandon Miller has a, uh, a PRA of 27 and a half. Which way you going on that? Yeah, I, I lean over here.
8:33
You know, it's, it's a tough matchup, and the first meeting of the season, by the way, between these two teams, so we don't necessarily have, you know, even a one-game sample to pull from.
8:41
Charlotte has just been rolling over bad teams of late. They, they smacked around the Mavericks last night. Uh, they are 10 and two ATS on the second night of a back-to-back, by the way.
8:50
Uh, so it could be a decent spot for them to, to hang around here. I would lean toward grabbing points with Charlotte, but I like the Miller prop as well over 27 and a half on the points, rebounds, assists.
9:00
He can be inefficient night to night, but he's just launching a ton of threes, a ton of shots in general. Uh, Charlotte has been a great defense in terms of limiting opponent threes.
9:08
Boston has been closer to league average, and, you know, that's just looking at, you know, opponent three-point attempts per game.
9:13
And considering how slowly Boston plays, I mean, they're giving up one of the highest three-point attempt rates, uh, in the league.
9:19
So there's always the fear with Brandon Miller that he could go, like, two of 13 from three, which he does, like, every four or five games, but I think the volume will be there, uh, against the Celtics tonight.
9:28
Pacers have lost 10 of 12, just your run-of-the-mill tanking streak. Uh, you have a play on their team total. You going under on this against the Clippers tonight? Yeah, I, I think you gotta go under.
9:39
Um, you know, we do have some injury situations we need to monitor here. Siakam, Nesmith, Nembhard, all questionable. Zubac has already been ruled out.
9:46
Does seem like Obi Toppin is going to play, but I'm not really sure that matters all that much. Clippers have been a great defensive team. Uh, they've been playing really slowly, uh, as well.
9:54
Pacers are one of the top teams in terms of pace, but I see this as a spot more so, uh, where the Clippers could kind of exert their style on what will likely be a very limited version of the Pacers.
10:05
You know, the, the way that Indiana and most of these bad teams can hang around or, or put up points, you know, against even average teams like the Clippers is putting up a bunch of threes.
10:13
Clippers have been one of the best defenses in the NBA over the last month. Top five in terms of limiting opponent three-point attempts, uh, limiting opponent three-point efficiency.
10:22
So I, I don't have high hopes tonight for the Pacers making the, the cross-country road trip out to LA. I'll go under on that team total. Uh, before you go, last 30 seconds. Thunder are at the Knicks tonight.
10:32
Obviously a game of intrigue. Mm-hmm. Uh, do we know if Shay is going after last night? Uh, I have to check if they officially announced it. Y- they're listing him as probable. Yeah. Uh, I, I think he's gonna play.
10:43
You know, they, they gave him the, the injury management tag- Yeah... last night, so it doesn't appear there's actually, you know, anything going on with that abdominal injury.
10:50
I think this was a, "Hey, we could beat the Bulls without you, and we want you out there against the Knicks tonight." They plan on managing, quote-unquote, this abdominal strain down the stretch with- Manage away...
11:01
the, with the 65-game- Yeah... floor in mind. Manage away, me and Gil say. Yes. Manage and get too close to the line, and then don't have it in your control somehow. Yeah. For those of us who have bets. Thank you, Nick.
11:14
Appreciate it. Anytime, guys. Nick Wale, co-host of Prop Points, after this show, 1:00 PM Eastern. Coming back on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN. You're here because you want an edge.
11:25
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11:46
[upbeat music]The Sports Betting Network Back on The Numbers Game, live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas.
12:05
Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin. My little buddy, Kelly Midlin. Sup? Who, uh, went through my weight, now has me way in the rear view. Eh, yo-yoing. What are you doing with the hair? Are you doing a man bun at some point?
12:20
What's going on? No, it's looking damn good today though, I'll tell you that much. [laughs] Total, total physical transformation for this kid. [laughs] Loses over 100 pounds, grows out the hair.
12:27
I know, the hair's an adventure. It was a nightmare on this show on Monday. I think it looks pretty good today. We get- It's just growing... we get tweets. Edward LaFevre, "Gil, why no love for Vicky Mboko?
12:35
Great, uh, pretty good form so far. P.S. I still think you're sleeping on Paula. Just kidding." [laughs] I love Paula Badosa.
12:43
Uh, Vicky Mboko was, is, was absolutely someone that I looked at as well in this, uh, in the quarters. I expect her to do very well. Vi- Victoria Mboko will win a slam at some point in her life. Um, Mboko is in
12:58
that first quarter as well with Sabalenka and Jovic. I just like Jovic better in this tournament. Uh, this is from, uh, let's see, Trevor Warwick, "Question for Todd.
13:10
Will he be opening up a Discord before March Madness?" We will ask him that. I'm not sure if he will or not. He might. Chance Copperpot, "I'm like Kelly, I have no idea how to spell or say any of these names.
13:18
I'm looking for the quarter and wondering where this is Noiala. I found a 22 to one." You said to parlay all these quarters, right? Right? [laughs] That's beautiful. These people will do- Well done...
13:28
whatever they want to get a parlay out of it... Chance. Chance. Oh, Chance, well done, Chance. Well done. He's like 10 American dollars at 647 to one. Well done. Man.
13:35
And Chris Heath, "Such a great time of year ahead of us with all this day betting to be had. If I wasn't a remediated math teacher, I would fly to Vegas and stay Sunday to Friday from the Bay." Is he quoting, uh,
13:46
quoting some lyrics there? He says, "Ring any bells, Gil?" I'm not sure. Hmm. Ladies and gentlemen, he is, uh, on a streaks, massive streaks of running 12 miles a day, talking about thousands of days,
13:59
of doing a college basketball podcast. We're talking thousands of days in a row on that as well. And the part that we really sort of minimize when he comes on the show, he is also a beer connoisseur. Yeah.
14:11
It is the great Greg Peterson, everybody, @gunit_81. Conference tournaments, who better to talk to than Greg? Greg, good morning to you.
14:21
Good morning to you, Gil, and yes, about 2,300 straight days on the College Basketball Podcast, so many straight days on the run, so many great days on just consecutive beers reviewed as well. It doesn't matter.
14:35
We're a man of consistency here, and it's a great time of year. Would you, would you, uh... Just a couple beer questions, we'll get to college basketball. One, when was the first time you had a beer? How old were you?
14:45
I had to have been, like, 10, maybe 11 years old. I was at, like, my cousin's wedding. My- [laughs]... parents are like, "Oh, we're having beer. You wanna try a little sip?"
14:55
It was, at the time, I'm not gonna name the, uh, product, but it's one of the most well-known products out there. I was like, "Sure." I thought that it was very disgusting. Still not a fan of the beer to the day.
15:06
I thought that it was awful, but let's just say that I tried other products that I thought were much better than this mainstream product. Wow.
15:13
It's a tough question, 'cause, like, I don't know, when did you have your first sip of beer? Like, yeah, like, when I was, like, I don't know, eight probably from my dad. Oh, my dad, same thing.
15:21
Like, when's the first time that, like, you puked on your front lawn from, like, a long night out? You know? Yeah, like, high school. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Bro. Skins were playing the Houston Oilers.
15:29
Benny Malone was carrying the football, and my dad goes, "Have a schlook of this Schlitz." [laughs] Schlook was his word for sip. It was disgusting. I never had a beer again. Schlitz.
15:37
Well, just give us one beer that, that you recommend that you loved yesterday or the day before. Oh, Treehouse. If you ever have the King Julius beer, they're out there in the great state of Massachusetts.
15:48
One of the best beers ever, and if you ever go to the great state of Wisconsin, Spotted Cow. I will live by Spotted Cow. Our very own Brett Musburger a few years ago- Hmm... had a Spotted Cow in studio as well.
15:58
I'm sure that he was a fan as well. Always will recommend the Spotted Cow. There it is. I've enjoyed a few, uh, Spotted Cows. I'm with you, Greg. That's a good beer. Yes. Great. Greg Peterson.
16:07
College Basketball Plus on his segues. Oh, yeah. Yeah. All right, Greg, to college basketball.
16:11
I just wanna point this out before we get to your fab five picks today, which include conference tournament games and not conference tournament games. Miami of Ohio squeaks by again. Woo. Again. Let's go, RedHawks.
16:22
They are making this fascinating. One more regular season game at Ohio on Friday. It's getting dicey, but that's it. They win that, they're 31 and 0.
16:33
Uh, do you believe they do that, first of all, and then is this even a controversy? I keep, s- I keep seeing it being a controversy. This can't be a controversy, right?
16:44
31 and 0, no matter what happens in the MAC, they're in, correct? The big dance. They have to be in, in my opinion.
16:50
Like, how could the committee look themselves in the mirror and be like, "Oh, this team went 31 and 0 in the regular season.
16:57
TCU, who lost to New Orleans in the regular season on their home floor, you get in, but the team that went 31 and 0 does not"?
17:05
Like, a lot of people are gonna poop on their schedule and everything like that, be like, "Oh," this, that, and the other.
17:10
Like, I- you've got Gene from accounting who didn't know what a Quad 1 win was 48 hours ago- [laughs]... trying to leave out Miami of Ohio. It's absolutely ridiculous right now. You play to win the game.
17:22
They've went 30 and 0, and I believe they do get there. This Ohio Bobcats team, it's a big intrastate rivalry that they're gonna be having. They are not the same team that they've been in the past.
17:33
I think that they get the job done if they're 31 and 0 in the regular season. If you leave them out of the tournament, like, what are you saying?
17:39
You're saying that the regular season for these mid-major teams just simply does not matter. I don't think the college basketball wants to go down that rabbit hole, so they have to be in, in my opinion.
17:48
Gene from accounting catching some strays there from Greg, by the way. Gene, get back to work. Sorry, Gene.
17:53
Better, Gene, better question, if they lose and they go 30 and 1, and then they don't win the MAC, are they in then? 'Cause if you lose one game, you're still always in, right?
18:07
I think that there have been four teams that have won 30-0 to start a season ever since the, the, uh, turn of the millennium, since 2000. Every one of them got a one seed.
18:18
Like, if we're saying that the first four teams got a one seed and you get left out of the NCAA tournament, again, what are we doing here? And now they use something called WAB, wins above bubble. Miami is a top 35 team.
18:31
They're all the teams in, I believe, the top 40 last year made the NCAA tournament. In my opinion, again, they've won 30 regular season games.
18:39
In the eyes of Committee 27, because three of those games were against NAIA teams, so you throw those out, and I agree with that. I still think you put them in. I do too. Okay, to Greg Peterson's Fab Five picks.
18:51
Let us begin with an early game. This one tips off in just over an hour. This is an Atlantic Sun tournament game. First rounder between Bellarmine, Kelly, Bellarmine, and Jacksonville.
19:03
Bellarmine favored by one and a half. What do you got? Yep, we are gonna be fading the Dolphins, even though it's in the city of Jacksonville. It's over at North Florida Arena.
19:12
But that said, with Bellarmine, they are an awful defense. They are out of 365 Division I teams, they are 65th. Typically, I don't back these bad defenses, but Jacksonville, they're not doing a whole lot right.
19:22
They've got one double figure scorer in Hayden Wood. You got a Bellarmine team that as bad as they are on defense, they're really good on offense.
19:28
They're a top 20 team in terms of two-point shooting percentage, three-point shooting percentage. If they need to cover at the free throw line, they shoot 78.8% at the charity stripe. That's a top 20 mark in the country.
19:38
Jacksonville not doing a whole lot right in terms of guarding the three-point line. They've been fragile on the inside. I think that Bellarmine in a shootout gets the job done.
19:46
I personally took the over +147 after the over, and I took Bellarmine laying a point and a half. Bellarmine laying the point and a half. Okay, this not a conference tournament game.
19:55
This is your run-of-the-mill Atlantic 10 game, Fordham and LaSalle. Total at 133 and a half. We're showing 132 here. What do you got? Yep, this total has went down, and these are not two run-of-the-mill offenses.
20:07
They are very bad in terms of offense because they're both very slow. Fordham outside the top 350 in terms of total possessions per game. LaSalle more around 300.
20:15
LaSalle 340th in terms of points scored on a per possession basis. No second and third chances to be had here against a Fordham team that is in the top 30 in terms of points, or in terms of rebound percentage.
20:26
Top 65 team in terms of points allowed on a per possession basis. LaSalle is not getting any offense going whatsoever. This has all the makings of a slog. Right now seeing a total of 132, I like the under.
20:37
A-10 tournament begins next week, as does the ACC tournament, but you have a play on SMU Miami today. Yes, I think that SMU goes bombs away from three-point range.
20:46
Miami in games played away from home, outside the top 290 in terms of opponent's three-point shooting percentage. SMU is a team that's in the top 25 with regards to their three-point shooting percentage.
20:56
SMU not playing a lot of defense, outside the top 150 in terms of points allowed on a per possession basis.
21:00
But when you've got a guy in Kevin Miller who's able to give you 20, or 19 points per game, BJ Edwards and all these other guys, they're able to shoot it really well from three.
21:08
I think that you get a high-scoring shootout and a game that SMU gets the job done in. So like SMU laying a point and a half, two points, and I like that over about 160 and a half.
21:17
All right, pick number four is a conference tournament game. The Northeast Conference tournament begins today. This is actually a quarterfinal already right out of the chute. Fairleigh Dickinson and Mercyhurst.
21:26
What do you got? Yep, and this is not the Fairleigh Dickinson team that knocked off Purdue a few years ago. That is very clear.
21:33
They're outside the top 350 in terms of total possessions per game, outside the top 300 with regards to their three-point shooting percentage.
21:39
Mercyhurst, top 125 team in terms of points allowed on a per possession basis. They do a nice job in terms of generating turnovers. Khadir Martin is a guy that gives you two and a half blocks per contest.
21:48
I think that they turn this game into a slog, and I like Mercyhurst to be able to get the job done here against a Fairleigh Dickinson team that doesn't have the same backcourt as in past years.
21:56
I laid four and a half with Mercyhurst and like a total of 132 to the under. All right, and finally, Big East game. Obviously, Big East tournament starts next week.
22:03
Villanova's a three-and-a-half point favorite against the Demon Deacons. What do you have? Yep, and with DePaul, they've actually been very good on defense. Not a lot of offense.
22:12
248th in terms of points scored on a per possession basis. Villanova should have the top rebounder, Duke Brennan.
22:18
Right now seeing that line at three and a half, willing to lay it with Villanova despite DePaul being an against the spread juggernaut. Villanova three-and-a-half point favorite over DePaul in that ball game.
22:26
Those are Greg Peterson's Fab Five. Greg, thanks for the beer recommendation. Thanks for the college basketball. We'll talk to you next week. Always fun. Thank you, Gil. Greg Peterson, everybody.
22:37
Coming back, uh, MLB draft. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. If you are betting college hoops, and I'm guessing you are, now's the time to get your edge.
22:48
Right now you can get VSiN Pro access through May 1st for just $29.99 with our Hoops Mania special.
22:53
VSiN Pro gives you daily best bets, real-time betting splits from DraftKings to Circa, AI-powered prop tools, full access to every VSiN show on demand, and you also get our March Mania betting guide.
23:02
Don't say Madness, Kelly. Packed with team breakdowns, betting trends, future strategies, picks from VSiN's top analysts. If you're planning to bet college hoops, VSiN Pro gives you a real edge.
23:10
Sign up now at vsin.com/subscribe. Man, I cannot wait for an NCAA survivor pool. Can't wait. Dude, me too. That is, that is- Did I get you in mine?... as fun as it gets. For this year? No. No, did I get you in the...
23:24
I got Drew in. I got a few folks in mi- in mine. Felika's in mine. Did I play that last year or not? I got Felika and Dinsic. I don't know who else. Clearly I didn't last long if I did play in it last year.
23:33
[laughs] That's so good. No, yeah, I, I don't know that I ever did play in yours last year. You, you did ask me if I wanted to be in it. Yeah, man. I never did. I'm in this year, though.
23:41
Mike Gooch, pizza money bet, Jovic, Iala, Iga, quarter winners parlay, 398 to 1. You never know. These guys are unbelievable. It hurts my soul. You can't stop them. You can only hope to contain them.
23:54
The great Dan Patrick. I believe that's what he meant when he said that with these bets. "Cheers, Gil and Kelly." Thank you, Mike.
23:58
DGen, Southern Gent, "Didn't get a chance to catch it live, but just wanted to say base winner segment yesterday was easily one of the funniest in ANG history.
24:04
Hearing him recant your confident rejection of his data sets and imagining his reaction had me." But he was just joking about that. That did not happen That was complete fabrication. He was just poking fun at me.
24:14
[laughs] It didn't happen. DGen, Southern Gent, I love that guy from the moment I met him. Y- you know, I got a tweet. Yeah. This is, this is gonna make... This makes me feel better.
24:22
Joe Zi- Zuccag, thank you for tweeting this at me. Mercyhurst, school in Erie, Pennsylvania, was Division II until- Ah, there you go... this year. Okay. That makes more sense. Now you feel better about yourself.
24:32
I've been working in sports for way too long- Yeah... for a random college basketball team to pop up without me, me having no idea who it is. This man writes the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter.
24:41
You can follow him at joesheehan.com. You can follow him on Twitter at joe_sheehan. Coincidentally, very cleverly, it's Joe Sheehan, everybody, courtesy of Progressive Gaslight. How you doing, Joe? Good, guys.
24:53
I'm excited to be the second smartest Joe on baseball you guys have on the show. Oh, wow. [laughs] A, a tribute to J- Wow... a tribute to Joe Peta? Is that what that is? [laughs] Wow. Yeah. I, you know what?
25:03
I think- And he, I, I was reading Joe's book a year, years ago. Uh, been talking baseball with him for a while. He's a great guy. You know what? Joe would say the same about you, though. Yep.
25:12
He would return the, the compliment to you. Uh, and that's no lie. Right, but he lied. [laughs] Which I'm pretty sure he did, didn't he? As I'm, as I'm saying, "And that's no lie," Joe's like, "He's lying."
25:21
[laughs] Uh, okay. I know you were here, uh, with, with Kelly and Matt, and you gave out some stuff. And I wanna get back to that in a second, because I'm very curious about certain ones of these.
25:33
But let me just, let me just open it. Let's do National League this time. We'll do American League next time you're on. Just give me the story lines that you're most interested in this year in the National League.
25:45
I think any time you're talking about NL baseball, Shohei Ohtani's at the top. Uh, how much longer can he ride this incredible run that he's been on, winning MVPs?
25:54
He's gonna go back to the mound this year, probably make 20 to 25 starts like he was with the Angels. You know, I think y- y- the NL starts and ends with him. The NL East I think is a really great story.
26:03
Uh, the Braves had some, a, a really bad year last year with injuries. They're starting this year with pitcher injuries, plus the Profar suspension.
26:09
The Phillies continuing to try to squeeze a World Series out of this run. And the Mets, who have been considered the disappointing team, I think have the best roster in the division.
26:18
So and then you've also got, you know, everybody chasing the, chasing the Dodgers, which is a group that I think includes the Cubs, which takes us to, you know, one of my best picks of the year.
26:24
I think the Cubs are gonna win that division, run away with it to some extent, and be the second-best team in the National League. Well, let's get to z- le- That's a great segue into some of these picks that you had.
26:33
So you are, you are on the Cubs every which way. Let's dive a little deeper on that. What is it about this ball club you love so much? They're running back last year's team.
26:43
They swapped out Tucker for Bregman on the star level.
26:46
They'll essentially be replacing Matt She- Matt Shaw's bat with, uh, Moises Bien- Esteros, who's a rookie, came through as a catcher, will spend most of his time as DH for this team, can flat out rake.
26:55
So I think offensively and defensively they're gonna be roughly the same as they were last year. But then you look at the pitching staff.
27:01
They've gone out and traded for Eduard Cabrera, who's right on the brink of a breakout. You look at the upgrades they made in that bullpen. That bullpen was a problem last year.
27:08
It's actually been a problem for them the last couple of years, which is surprising to me just because I thought Craig Counsell would come in and make some changes there, and he hasn't really had his group of guys yet.
27:16
I look at the upgrades. Uh, you know, guys like Phil Maton coming in, adding to the depth of that rotation, giving Counsell more leverage options.
27:23
I think they'll be better from the seventh inning on than, than they were last year. Remember, this was a, a very good team last year. Would've won the division but for that crazy Brewers run in the summer.
27:32
I think they're the second-best team in the National League. And you have them, by the way, they're lined at 88 and a half wins. They are, uh, in the market, supposed to finish first therefore in the NL Central.
27:41
But you have them not only to win the division, you have them also pennant and World Series. You made those bets as well, and the over 88 and a half? I did.
27:47
And I, I said that because I think the Dodgers are causing the rest of the lines to be pushed up. I think there's more value in these non-Dodger futures than there would be, particularly in the National League.
27:57
So a number on the Cubs that I might normally not like in March looks really good to me right now, nine to one. If you give me them nine to one start in the division series, I'd be pretty happy about that.
28:08
Same thing for 18 to one to win the World Series. And then I got a fun thing in there.
28:11
You know, I, I like, think the Mariners are the best team in the American League, so hey, let's match them up at 100 to one and see what happens. That's not something you do... How can I put this? That's for fun.
28:19
Uh, you guys call it pizza money, right? Yeah. Throw some pizza money on there. Uh, an exacta from, uh, Joe. Cubs over Mariners in the World Series. So back to the Dodgers and the NL West.
28:28
So it's, you know, obviously the Dodgers are the, uh, the bully on the block, and they're lined at 102 and a half wins. But this is one of those seasons, right?
28:36
L- even last year, there's a lot of people, not only the betting markets, the, the season wins markets, but also, like, you know, some experts, "Oh, the Padres. Maybe this is the year where the Padres get them."
28:45
Not this year in terms of what the market shows, right? This, it's a chasm between the Dodgers and everybody else. Dodgers lined at 102 and a half wins. The Padres are next, but all the way down at 83 and a half.
28:57
Then you have the Gi- uh, Giants and D-backs. Rockies not like the others, if you know what I mean.
29:03
You, though, in that same spirit you were just talking about, about, you know, the Dodgers allowing other sort of, you know, markets to have value on other teams in a way they wouldn't otherwise, you went Diamondbacks 22 to 1 to win the NL West.
29:17
Why the Diamondbacks instead of the Padres or Giants? Uh, this was before even the Gallen, uh, pickup. So they've re- reestablished their rotation.
29:27
They signed Merrill Kel- Kelly, who they traded at the deadline last year. Gallen sat out there until late February. They were able to reestablish him. They still have Eduardo Rodriguez coming back.
29:36
They've got some young arms. I like the offense a lot. Jordan Lawler is gonna get some reps in center field. Uh, it looks like, you know, with, trading for Arenado meant the infield was locked up.
29:45
So you put Lawler at center and you move Alec Thomas to right until Lourdes Gurriel gets back. All of a sudden you've got a much deeper lineup than they've run out there in recent seasons.
29:52
We'll see Carroll come back probably first week of the season from this hand injury. I just, I think they've got the more complete roster of the Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks.
30:00
And Gil, you know, we've seen the Dodgers play with their food year after year. Yeah. Whatever you line their number at, you have to remember, the Dodgers aren't trying to win 103 games.
30:08
They aren't just trying to win the World Series. So i- they've let the Pa- the Padres stay in the race in two of the last three years.
30:14
I think they let the Diamondbacks stay in the race this year, and you- Again, if a serie-- if they're within three, four games in August, anything can happen.
30:21
So it's not, "I think the Diamondbacks are gonna win the division," it's, "I think the chance is much better than 5%." Totally agree with you on that.
30:28
I think, and I think that allows us in certain betting markets, like we were talking about yesterday, most wins, I think you can- Mm-hmm...
30:34
exploit that market, 'cause I don't think the Dodgers are that incentivized to have that, as we saw last year as well. Um, okay, let's ask it this way on, on the National League. What's the...
30:44
I'll sort of leave this open-ended.
30:46
If you've been taking in baseball media, maybe baseball betting media, but just even mainstream, what's the National League thing that you've heard, conventional wisdom take, uh, opinion that you have the most skepticism about, that you're like, "Boy, I'm hearing a lot of this and I'm just not buying it"?
31:04
I'm seeing a lot of positive, uh, reactions to the Pirates. I think they've been bet up. I wanna say they started at 74 and a half, and now it's, it, it's not 80, but it's gonna be pushing 80.
31:13
And as much as you love Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, that rotation, it's not a good bullpen at all. They've upgraded the offense, but they've upgraded from maybe the 29th best offense to the 24th best offense.
31:25
I really didn't like their winter with Ryan O'Hearn and Marcell Ozuna. Uh, we'll see if they let, you know, Conor Griffin take the shortstop job. But it, other than the rotation, there's just not a lot there.
31:34
So I think a lot of the, the overs that we're seeing people jump on the Pirates, I'm not seeing it at all. I see them as about a 74, 75 win team at best.
31:41
And, and there's more downside than upside, just 'cause I don't think they can still score enough runs. Who's gonna be worse, Joe, Nats or Rockies?
31:49
Rockies, but man, that's just an ugly question to ask me on a perfectly nice morning. [laughs] I'm sorry. I apologize. Um- Yeah... uh, uh, the Rockies are... I mean, neither team is trying to win right now.
31:59
The Ro- the Do- if you were to draft from these two teams, though, the Nationals have James Wood. The Nationals have, uh, uh, CJ Abrams. They've got at least some star level talent, where the Rockies just have nothing.
32:11
They're gonna... Are the, are the Nats gonna hold onto those two guys long-term, do you think? I don't think so. I think the Gore trade signals that they're ready to go into the next cycle.
32:20
They've been in this rebuilding mode for five years now, but, you know, uh, Wood's already a year and a half into his career. Abrams is three. Y- it's unlikely Abrams is going to be there when they're ready to win again.
32:30
And even Wood at this point, you wonder how quickly can they turn this around? They might have to go through a second rebuilding cycle. Bas- basically take a decade out of contention, which is brutal.
32:39
Jeez, that is brutal. Okay, uh, before you go, let us know how often does the Joe Sheehan baseball newsletter come out? Where do folks get it? What's the deal?
32:50
So the newsletter, uh, you can check out joe sheahen.com for the information. It comes out, you know, three, four times a week usually, sometimes more, sometimes less.
32:57
It's not on a regular schedule, just whenever I have something to say. There's also a free gaming adjunct to it. So if you subscribe it to the newsletter- Ooh...
33:04
you can opt into a gaming newsletter, and that usually also runs about three, four days a week, usually p- focused on picks and other issues in the gaming industry. It really is great. Love reading it.
33:13
And Joe, it's 1A and it's Joe 1A and Joe 1B, and we'll let everybody decide what's what. [laughs] Thank you so much. Appreciate it. We look forward to talking again. Thanks, guys. Joe Sheehan, everybody.
33:24
Uh, again, on Twitter as well, @joe_sheehan, S-H-E-E-H-A-N. Coming back, Will Hill, all his bets next on a Numbers Game with VSiN.
33:39
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Majestic, glorious downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin. Hello.
33:53
Kelly Bidlin on Twitter for those, uh, looking for Kelly. You go Kelly Bidlin, you'll be like, "Ah, I can't find him." Kelly Bidlin. That's how you find him. There's no I's. That's right. There's no I's in Bidlin.
34:04
E-Y on Kelly, B-Y-D on Bidlin. Ladies and gentlemen, there's no mistaking how you spell this man's name. Will Hill @NotTheWillHill, although you do have to add an extra E on Twitter.
34:15
He is the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast. He's the star of the Megapod. He also writes for foxsports.com. He joins us now from his spot in Connecticut. How you doing, Will? Boys, what's going on?
34:28
Conference tournament's getting going here in the next half hour, so it's, uh, it's a beautiful time of the year. Bellarmine in action here momentarily. Greg is on Bellarmine.
34:36
You have any play in this first game in the Atlantic Sun? Nothing? No? Nothing in this one?
34:41
I played a little first half under just with the old Steve Fezzik, you know, neutral court, early start time, you know, max intensity of a conference tournament. So I think 68, 68 and a half, it's in that range.
34:51
I did play a little first half under here in the, uh, in the conference tournament. See, how did I know? I, I knew you'd be. Uh, it was, the game gonna sit there and you're not gonna have a first half under bet on it?
35:00
I knew that. I- That's right... I wouldn't, knew he wouldn't do that. Okay, let's talk about some of these college basketball games, though. Um, and let's just talk about a tournament in general. The Big South begins.
35:10
You have a play on a team, pretty, pretty fair long shot in the Big South. Charleston Southern is 30 to one, and if you look at their regular season, six of their conference losses came in overtime. They're a seven seed.
35:23
They didn't have a great year, but six losses in overtime and a bunch of other close losses, one-two possession games, and they actually fared pretty well against the better teams in the league.
35:33
High point's the favorite. They're the one seed. Winthrop is the two seed. They play Winthrop in their first matchup. Uh, they just beat Winthrop a few days ago, and they split the season series with them.
35:43
High point, they lost both, but one of them was in overtime by two points.
35:46
So I just think the close losses, the overtime losses, the fact that they've actually been pretty competitive and fared pretty well against the top two teams in this conference, I think there is some value here on 30 to one.
35:58
Of course, you'll have people say, "Ah, do the money line rollover. Uh, that pays better." Maybe it does. I'm not sure.
36:03
I really, um, I, I, I think it's close, but, you know, as, as you've pointed out and we've talked about, it's hard for people to execute that. They bet it one day, and then they'll, you know- Yeah...
36:11
lose the money on something else, or they'll forget, forget to bet it, or they'll start to chicken out the second or third time through. So I, I don't mind taking the 30 to one.
36:19
I just think directionally here, Charleston Southern, there's, uh, there's some meat on the bone. There's some value just with You know, the, the, the close losses and how their season turned out.
36:27
It is the most, how can I put this? The most commonly stated thing in sports betting that doesn't get executed- Mm-hmm... is the money li- is the money line rollover parlay.
36:39
I don't know how-- Do you know anybody who actually goes through and does it? I, like- I don't know. I mean, yes. I don't know. But it's ver- it's very few, and it's- Once in a while they'll do it...
36:47
and it's very professional gamblers, right? Yeah. Like, it is- Yep... it, you guys said it right, the only other one I'd throw in there is the alts, right?
36:53
Like, "Ah, I'm gonna b- I'm gonna lay six and a half, and I'm betting alts, too." That w- I would say that is second behind. Hmm. Well, I don't know I'm looking forward to playing the alts.
37:01
I don't think I agree with people say it that actually do it. Okay. Charleston Southern, uh, you got it at 31, still at 25 to one. Would you play it, Big South, yeah, 25 to one?
37:09
Yes, and I don't have a ton of books that offer this in Connecticut, but I did see 30 to one, I believe DraftKings, unless that's the one that moved. DraftKings.
37:17
But yeah, 25 to one I think is probably the last place I'd play. Otherwise, yes, maybe go with the money line rollover, but yes, I, I do like Charleston Southern in this tournament. All right.
37:24
Uh, Northeast Conference Tournament begins today with your, uh, quarterfinals. Le Moyne is in action against Stonehill. What do you got here? Can't wait for this game. All the eyes of the nation will be on this one.
37:38
[laughs] Stonehill and Le Moyne. Uh, this conference is rough. These teams cannot score, just in general. So six and a half, uh, to begin with is a lot of points Mm...
37:46
but if you look, uh, Stonehill actually swept Le Moyne here and won both games pretty comfortably, one by nine and one by 11, and they're getting six and a half. So maybe I'm taking the bait here.
37:58
I know Stonehill is a rough team to watch on offense, and, uh, Le Moyne is actually one of the better defensive teams in the conference, but I'll take the bait here. Give me the Skyhawks getting the six and a half.
38:08
The Skyhawks. The opposite of the Seahawk. That's correct. They both fly. Both are hawks. That's right. They choose to do it in different milieus- [laughs]... or whatever the word is. Um, [laughs] okay.
38:19
Uh, the eyes of the nation. By the way, trivia question once again. I'm gonna ask this every time Le Moyne comes up. Most points ever scored in Le Moyne basketball history, single season, belongs to... Michael Montesano.
38:30
Bang. Winner. Wait, but you know what? Yeah, I actually wish you didn't bring it up 'cause I was like, every time Le Moyne gets brought up, I'm like, "Is that the school? Is that the school?" That's the school.
38:37
I, I keep forgetting the school. Gotta give the man his flowers. Sorry, Mike. The kids say. All right. Uh, to college football. You seem to have a, uh, a bet here. Well, now you seem to have an opinion, I should say.
38:47
You do have a bet. We know who's going number one, Fernando Mendoza's going to the Raiders. We don't know who's going number two. You've made a bet on this. Yeah, I got Bain. There's some 10 to one out there.
38:57
Again, this is not something that's widely available in Connecticut. Some, you know, PPHs are starting to offer it, but Bain is in that 10 to one. I even saw s- somebody texted me today that Bain is 14 to one.
39:06
I gotta find out where that is. I just think, again, directionally, Bain should not be this much of a long shot.
39:12
Having watched that Miami team as much as I did, having that Miami ticket, to me, he's gonna be a tremendous pro.
39:18
Not that I'm some scout or anything, but I just think we're far enough away and we know little enough where you could take a shot at a long number. Maybe Reese is the play.
39:27
Uh, you know, maybe they try to trade down, the Jets do, because they need so much. I'm, I'm not sure this is a draft where you can find a partner that's willing to trade up.
39:34
But I just think Bain, we, we've seen so many things in this draft and in recent drafts and, you know, past drafts where, uh, these things change so quickly, where Bain, now he's 10 to one- Yeah...
39:43
but who's to say he's not even money by the time the draft starts? I just think at 10 to one, this far out, with his talent, uh, Bain is worth a flyer there at the, to, uh, to be the second pick.
39:52
And wouldn't it be a little bit of poetic justice all these years after the Jets passed on Warren Sapp and took, I think it was Kyle Brady- [laughs]...
39:59
all those years ago, 1996, the Miami defensive lineman, if they, uh, this year, they, they do take the Miami defensive lineman.
40:05
So I think from a talent perspective, from a number perspective, that 10 to one on Bain is a good bet. You are aware that he has the arms of an alligator, though, correct? You are aware of this.
40:14
They looked pretty good when I was watching. I mean, l- they looked pretty long [laughs] they, they looked long enough for, he was basically dominating every game he was in.
40:19
I know they don't measure well and, and all of that, but, uh, he's gonna play for somebody. He's gonna get drafted pretty high by somebody, and to me, he, he looks like the real deal.
40:26
So again, I'm aware of the arm issue, but we'll see here. Who knows what the Jets are gonna do? It's the Jets. They got the coach falling asleep at the, [laughs] the cough line, which is pretty funny.
40:34
[laughs] But I, I'll take a shot here on the numbers. Uh, the other thing that's starting today, which we haven't mentioned today, but I talked about it extensively yesterday, is the World Baseball Classic.
40:43
And by the way, Team USA thrashing the San Francisco Giants yesterday, 15 to one. That was not fun to watch for Giants fans. Uh, USA is the favorite, minus 110.
40:52
Three-time WBC champ, Japan, at plus 330, then the DR at plus 450, the Dominican Republic. Venezuela are the only other club in single digits. You have a bet in this market, sir. What is it?
41:05
I do, and it's funny, usually I'm not into this. The fact that it goes up against March Madness, to me, it's just exhibition, e-exhibition baseball. Can't get into it.
41:12
But I had to write something for Fox Sports, and I'm going on the, uh, the Bear Bets podcast after this. Ooh.
41:16
So I had to do some research, and the research kinda got me interested, just from a, you know, a handicapping perspective, just from a, you know, curiosity standpoint.
41:25
Doing the research kind of p- uh, you know, piqued my interest and got me sort of into this. So I, I bet the Dominican Republic here. Plus 450 I think is very playable. Good luck getting 27 outs against that lineup.
41:37
Have you seen their lineup? It is Soto, Machado, Tatis, Vlad Jr., uh, Ketel Marte, Julio Rodriguez. I don't know how you're getting 27 outs- Oh, boy... against that lineup.
41:47
Granted, the starting pitching is not great, but the, these guys can only throw three or four innings anyway.
41:53
It's, it's a pitch count with the starters, and their bullpen is loaded with MLB arms, late inning guys, you know, Duval, uh, Uribe from the Brewers.
42:01
They, they've got a pretty deep bullpen, and they've got an absolutely stacked lineup. I think their lineup even better than the US. So to me, the US is rightfully favored, but I mean, Scubal's only gonna make a cameo.
42:11
So when you look at the names on the paper, it's Scubal, it's Skeens. Yeah, Scubal's gonna be in and out. He's gonna throw 50 pitches against Great Britain, and he's gonna hit the road. That's gonna be it.
42:19
So he's not gonna be a factor in the knockout round. Uh, Skeens obviously is great, but he will pitch, I think, the semis if they get there, and then they're gonna pitch McClain in the final.
42:27
So to me, there's a path for the Dominican Republic. I don't think there's value on Japan, I think, and, and you, I think alluded to it yesterday.
42:34
Japan, who's won this three times like you said, they don't have their pitching from last time. Yep. They won it last time with Ohtani, Sasaki, Yamamoto, uh, Darvish, and Imanaga. None of those five guys are pitching.
42:44
Ohtani's a hitter only. So to me, there's value on the Dominican Republic. And like I said, I'm gonna be into this. Uh, I think they did a much better job.
42:52
I don't know if you looked at the scheduling- They avoided the NCAA tournament. When they had this three years ago, it was head-to-head with the tournament. I remember- Stupid...
42:59
uh, the same time as, uh, FAU, Fairleigh Dickinson, some of those tournament games in the second round an- and so forth. It, it was head-to-head. You can't do that.
43:06
But this year, the semifinals are selection Sunday, 8:00 at night, which is, th- there's some real estate there. There's nothing else on. You've digested the brackets.
43:14
The next day, on that Monday when there's nothing on, is the other semifinal game, and then Tuesday is the title game where, all right, you're going against one of those first four games, the Dayton games that overlap.
43:23
But for the most part, you're in and out before March Madness starts. So I think they really did a better job here, uh, avoiding March Madness and being a little more strategical here with when these games are played.
43:33
Uh, can I get a baseball play from you before you go? Uh, we missed you during the draft yesterday. Were you not invited into the draft, man? You would've been great.
43:40
I- if you were in there, give us a pick that you would've wedged into it. Oh, and by the way, I did bet Soto as well, 28 to 1, uh, WBC MVP. Oh. Uh, I will go
43:52
Orioles future, Or- Orioles to win the American League in that range, probably in the- Hmm... 10, 12 to 1 range. I'm very high on the Orioles this year. Okay. Soto, though. Let's go back- Let's go... to the WBC.
44:01
Soto to, Juan Soto to be MVP 28 to 1? That's what you said? 28 to 1, and boy, Junior Caminero, I didn't even mention him, hit 40-something homers last year. He's 80 to 1.
44:10
So if you, uh, if you, you shop around and you just want something to, uh, to have some fun with, there's a lot of good numbers there at WBC MVP. Will Hill gets an assignment from Fox Sports, and he dives in.
44:18
That's right. That's right. I've got an assignment for you, Will. I need a fun conference tournament bet, okay? You need to, you need to find a Rutgers from last year. He just, oh, he gave you one.
44:27
Yeah, I need, I need a Rutgers, like, 500 to 1 or 200 to 1. Thank you, Will. Appreciate it. See you guys.
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