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Mar 5, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | March 5, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | March 5, 2025
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44:43
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlack. It's a numbers game live from Circle.
0:22
What's happening? Not much, man. How you doing? Good. That was very sincere of you. You still, uh, still losing weight before- [laughs]... before our eyes? I hope so. [laughs] How often do you get on a scale?
0:32
You know what? You and I have had this conversation before. I usually try to do, I do, like, once a week, once every 10 days, something like that. Oh, gotta, gotta do it every day, man. I, I wanna see the results.
0:40
I wanna see it, Gil. Yeah, I'm a, I'm a big everyday guy. Yeah, you are. You told me. 'Cause- That's, that's, that's smart... you, you will learn what foods and at what time of day eating causes weight spike.
0:51
It's odd wishing everybody could learn that. Hey, it makes a lot of sense. I get it. Yeah, yeah. I also just, like, forget though. Like, I wouldn't- I can tell by the way you're like, "Yeah, I'm not doing that."
0:57
[laughs] Uh, on the show today, Jim Root, James Patrick Root from Three Man Weave talk college hoops with us, conference, tournaments, what he thinks about games today, including of course Alabama and Florida, the de facto game for a number one seed perhaps.
1:13
Tennis and golf bets, you know what that means. Country clubbing, we gotta do that as well. That's right. Um, I'll do tennis, and then we'll do a lot of golf a little later.
1:20
Byron Lindiq will join us as well, talk, uh, Arnold Palmer. You've got bets too, right? I got bets, yeah. Byron's got bets. I like it, like it. Everybody, big, big event.
1:29
Uh, you got Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele's back, Rory. Looking forward to it. JVT will join us, Jonathan Van Tole will talk NBA as the Warriors win again.
1:39
They've lost once since But- o- once since Butler has been in the lineup. Twice since he's, since he's been acquired, but only once with him in the lineup. Uh, Warriors go on the road, beat the Knicks last night.
1:51
Steph played, Kat did not. Uh, we'll get JVT's thoughts on that and beyond of course with the Lakers as the number two seed now in the West, and the Warriors the sixth seed. It's crazy. Dub show, let's go.
2:01
Um, and of course, uh, we'll do other things as well, whatever come, whatever leaps to mind. Uh, I wanna start with tennis though because, uh, Indian Wells begins today.
2:09
Tennis is de facto fifth major, and by the way, if you wanna deep dive into it, uh, no pun intended, Drew Dinsick is the guest- Oh... along with, uh, Zach Cohen, our buddy Zach.
2:17
So Drew and Zach and the Beating the Book podcast, Indian Wells, uh, we did, I don't know how long it is, but it's over an hour if you wanna dive in here before the, uh, tournament starts.
2:26
It's not only outrights, it's our, our quarterly bets. Um, Zach and Drew, I'll, I'll let you go to the podcast for them. I will give you mine. I will end... I will give you all that I bet in terms of the outrights.
2:36
I gave one yesterday. Um, and this begins at around, what is it, 11:00 AM today Pacific, uh, 2:00 PM Eastern is when this begins.
2:44
So we still got some time here, but, uh, the only outright I bet, hey, what a surprise, I bet Iga Swiatek at four to one. Yeah, right. It's only four on the ladies' side. By the way, let me just say this.
2:52
I have no bets on the men's side outrights, none. I just, my numbers, so I do n- I, I have the data for everybody, right? I run the numbers on, on everything, and just on the men's side, it nothing leap...
3:04
I, uh, Zach and Drew have 'em, and I get their, I get their plays, but it wasn't enough for me to make bets. But on the ladies' side, Iga to win it at four to one. Her quarter is not easy.
3:14
It's not terrible either, but it's not easy. She's won two out of the last three of these tournaments, the BNP Paribas Open. Belinda Bencic to win quarter number two, I mentioned this yesterday, at six to one.
3:24
For those of you in Canada, got a l- got a couple Canadian, uh, listeners this morning who were listening on Game Plus who were telling the same, telling, can't speak, can't speak, who were saying that Bet6- [laughs] Bet365 had Belinda Bencic to win Q2 at nine to one.
3:39
Whoa. Here stateside, DK still has her at five to one. I'd play that. I would not play the MGM price now at plus 350. Um, I went ahead and these are, again, these are all based on, on numbers.
3:51
So if I look at my raw, um, women's hard court numbers,
3:57
I have Iga number one, Belinda Bencic number two, Sabalenka the world number one third, Osaka fourth, Pegula fifth, then Andreescu and Rybakina.
4:10
So not only do I have Belinda Bencic at Q2, but Zach, uh, does this thing where he decides to take two players. He, he had two in Q2. I think he took Navarro too. I did not. But I'm with him on Pegula and Osaka in Q3.
4:22
I bet these at, uh, MGM yesterday, Osaka to win Q3 at nine to one, Pegula to win, uh, quarter number three at plus 550 as well, hoping that those two meet in the, uh, quarter number three, in the third quarter, uh, final there.
4:38
So I just thought both of those prices were outstanding, again, based on the numbers I just mentioned, how high I have both of them ranked in the raw tennis data.
4:46
And then Iga to win Q4 at minus 105, which I thought was a great price. So those are the, those are the outrights I have pre-flop here in this tournament.
4:53
I didn't do anything on the men's side, just it w- it was too cluttered. Like, Q3 was too cluttered to make a bet, and I just didn't feel like there was an opportunity there.
5:01
The, uh, which isn't completely odd for you, right? No, not completely odd. I mean, you usually lean in, lean into the women's side a little bit more.
5:09
You, you are a believer that I always lean into the women's side a little more. Yeah. I, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Hey, it doesn't mean- Yeah...
5:13
it doesn't mean I think you're spending that much more time handicapping the women's side, but if the results show value on that- Yes... versus the men's- That is correct... then bets are placed where they're placed.
5:23
I think you know this from golf. Right, exactly. Uh, I, I, I think I'll be tailing you on a couple. Uh, the one when, that jumped out to me when you said it and was definitely that Iga quarter price. Yeah.
5:32
Minus 105, I mean, it's what? It's not, I mean, it's not easy. She's got Noskova in there. She's got Muchova. She's got Jabeur, but, you know, this is service. By the way, that's the other thing- Badosa...
5:41
that Zach, Zach was great about. Oh, I don't know if Badosa's playing or not. Her back is- Oh, really? Yeah.
5:45
Um, she, I mean, she's listed as playing, but we'll see what happens 'cause she had to pull out the last tournament.
5:50
Uh, Zach did a great job on the podcast yesterday, our own Zach Cohen, Betting on X, part of the glue that holds this whole operation together, uh, all of his work at VSiN.com.
5:58
Zach was talking about he had m- man on the scene in the qualies, um, that the surface change isn't as big of a deal as we might make it out to be So the ball might bounce a little less in terms of height, but it's kind of just as slow, if not perfectly as slow.
6:17
So that's good news for those of us who bet tennis, those of us who watch tennis.
6:23
Uh, the bottom line is Indian Wells must have, must have gotten a grip to change the surface from these people, from this clay court people. Clay court. Oh man, what was the company again?
6:33
I'll have to pu- pull back up, uh, in case you're looking to invest. But the, um...
6:36
So okay, so will you be doing the same thing that I was doing last Thursday then today, and be eagerly awaiting post-match quotes from people about how it played?
6:48
Yeah, but we've already gotten some of those, and, and they're all the same, the same thing. They're all like, "Yeah, it's pretty much the same." Okay. Okay. They don't notice a difference.
6:54
Um, today is the only day there might be weather, but I do have four plays today. And again, for subscribers, subscribers get these at, at, uh, vsin.com/picks.
7:04
Um, I'm gonna go ahead and give all the ones that I have today here for you. It is two on the ladies' side, two on the men's side. Uh, the first one, Renata Zarazua against Elisabetta Cocciaretto. Well done. Thanks.
7:18
Um, this is just a, uh, this is just really a fade of Cocciaretto, who's not been playing well. Plus 130 is too high, uh, too long of a shot on, uh, Zarazua. I'm not a huge Zarazua fan, but that's a good price.
7:29
Katie Volynets, our old friend, Katie Volynets, plus 123 against Ashlyn Krueger. Uh, the tennis hardos are gonna be like, "Wow, you're taking Volynets over Krueger."
7:37
Krueger, the reason they would say that, by the way, Krueger, uh, back in, uh, in Abu Dhabi, you remember this tournament in Abu Dhabi a few tournaments ago, Kelly. [laughs] Obviously.
7:46
Uh, she took down Kessler, Kasatkina, Leila Fernandez, Noskova. She had a great tournament all the way to the final, and then Bencic took her out. But since then she's lost to Kenin in Doha.
7:55
She's lost to Ito in the qualies in Dubai. Volynets loves this tournament. She beat Andreva and Jabeur here last year. I'm taking Katie Volynets, our old girl, uh, plus 123.
8:06
Famous here on the show for, uh, winning as big dogs many times. And then on the men's side, Luca Nardi, plus 139 versus Cam Norrie. This is probably the one I like the most of the bunch.
8:15
Um, Luca Nardi you may remember as a lucky loser. You know what a lucky loser is? Lucky loser is when you lose in the qualifiers, but someone pulls out, and you still get the main draw. Ah.
8:26
They should probably come up with a better term than lucky loser. Yeah, yeah. But he beat Djokovic last year here- Wow... as a lucky loser. Okay.
8:33
Cam Norrie won this tournament in 2021 after the pandemic when they moved the tournament to the fall, but Cam Norrie has not played well. I think he's been knocked out first round three out of his last six tournaments.
8:44
Um, Luca Nardi is the play here at plus 139. Um, that's one I love here today. And then finally, uh, Tristan Boyer, uh, even money against Alexander Vukic.
8:57
Uh, not much to say here other than I think he's just the better all-around player. Even money was a good play. These are all within range of playing, by the way, all of these within range.
9:06
Um, so none of these prices have gotten out of whack. So Zarazua and Volynets on the ladies' side, Nardi and Boyer on the men's. I like it. You like it?
9:13
Nardi and Boyer, I feel like those are, uh, you just broke down the whole Nardi history, but, uh, those are newer names for me, Gil, newer names for me. Yeah.
9:20
This, well, this is the, this is the early part of the, uh, the first round here. Um, none of the big names are playing today except for Osaka, I think is the only big name.
9:28
And they, you know, this is one of these, uh, it's a pretentious tournament where they want you to know that they're not like a normal tournament, but they're not quite a slam, so it's a week and a half.
9:35
I'm gonna, I, I'm gonna guess that you're able to find a little bit more value early in these tournaments too? Um, it varies. Okay. Sometimes yes, sometimes no.
9:44
Um, because if, if somebody really, like, let's take Laslo Djere. We're coming off the Laslo Djere, uh, um, outright at plus 330 before the quarterfinals in Santiago.
9:54
Oftentimes you can get value late in tournaments because you will have a player like that who is not known like the others. Uh, like the, he's a S- he's Serbian. The South American players are known to be great on clay.
10:08
That's how they grew up, right? So the Cerundolos, [laughs] get deep in the weeds here before we get to college hoops.
10:12
[laughs] The Cerundolos and the Echeverris and the Baezes of the world, right, the Navones of the world, you know these guys, Kelly. Oh, yeah, yeah. I've, I've heard of them a long time.
10:22
They are, they're known to be great clay players, so in the market, in the tennis market, they play a guy- They get bet... like Djere, they're like, "Ah, they'll kill Djere," and he's always a dog, right?
10:30
But if you have access to the data, if you're actually running the numbers, Djere's numbers on a, on a, at least on a short-term basis, spike massively, and so that's why he was great value.
10:41
All of these, by the way, based on, based on data. So in each of these cases, um, you know, that's why it leads me to plays, not just, you know, I'm not just making stuff off the top of your head.
10:51
There were a couple that I got close to but didn't pull the trigger on, and then, uh...
10:55
Do you do that thing where you, like, think about betting something, but you don't, and then you actively root against it just so you don't have self-loathing? Oh, of course, yes. That is- Oh, yeah, yeah...
11:03
100% what I do. Yeah, yeah. The, yes, the last golf right, uh, outright who's- Uh... who's left off the list, I am actively rooting against them the entire tournament. Yes. Yes.
11:11
So there's a couple matches here today where I'm like, "Please don't go. Please don't manifest yet." I, I mean, I hope Drew and Zach help you with this too, but I love talking to Matt and Wes through golf bets.
11:19
Like, it is a therapeutic process doing the podcast for me because- Oh, fantastic... like Michael Kim I ended up on last week, uh, for the Honda, and he got close up the leaderboard, didn't win.
11:29
But you're like, you know, Matt talked me into it. He was one of the guys I was just about to leave off. Matt helped talk me into him. So it's a, it's a good process.
11:36
I think it's, almost on those podcasts, it's almost like, wow, your case is so good, I'm thinking about it very strongly, and then you get off the podcast, and some of them you like, some of you, some of you go, "Oh, okay, I'm not gonna go that crazy."
11:46
Uh, it's great. Beating The Book podcast, Indian Wells, check it out. But don't check it out now 'cause we got college basketball next with Jim Root. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:00
Wanna bet smarter? I know you do. Start with smarter insights.
12:03
Right now, you can check out articles like Ohi- the Ohio Valley, Big South, Summit, Northeast Conference tournament previews, Greg Peterson's best bets in college basketball, and Wes Reynolds' Arnold Palmer Invitational preview.
12:14
Later today, you can check out Zach Cohen's best bets in the NBA, Jonathan Davis' NHL best bets, and Steve Makinen's NBA analytics report.
12:22
To get access to all the articles on vsin.com right now, you can sign up for as little as 9.99. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. Skill Alexander. This is Kelly Bidlack.
12:33
College basketball tournament's not quite in full swing, 'cause obviously the, uh, the big conferences, uh, begin next week. But we got, we got double digits worth happening now.
12:41
Jim Root joins us courtesy of the Progressive guest line. You can follow him on Twitter @secondchancepoints.
12:47
That's with the number two, and of course, he's one-third, eh, that's the math, he may have a different, uh, percentage on this, but one-third we'll call it, of the three-man weave crew. How you doing, Jim? I'm good.
12:58
Yeah, we're just about to hit the, uh, the big, the big run here of college hoops. I was saying to you guys right before we got on air, we got daytime basketball in the Big South tomorrow. Yes.
13:08
So it really starts to feel like championship week and like March. It is such an awesome time of year. It's the-- It is really, it never fails, right? Like, this is the, the March Madness itself never disappoints.
13:21
Um, and so that's why. It is a part of Americana. We love it so much. Let me just ask you this right off the top, since we, we go macro here. How many teams, in your opinion, legitimately can win the national title?
13:34
Ooh, boy, that is a good question. Uh, looking down the list, I mean, I'd say somewhere in the neighborhood of, uh, 10-ish.
13:43
I mean, I, I think there's a really clear top tier with, like, the, the top six, uh, the teams all really in contention for one seeds right now, uh, for the SEC, plus Houston, plus Duke.
13:54
But I, I think somebody like Texas Tech could sneak in there. I, I think maybe Iowa State at peak form, although last night certainly not a, a good indicator for them.
14:03
And then, you know, maybe, maybe you get somebody that, that jumps up into that tier. But I, I think there's been kind of a separation at the top this year, so it's definitely top-heavy. Um, Alabama-Florida tonight.
14:16
I know you don't have a play on this necessarily, but I wanna ask you about it, though. Is this a de facto game for the number one seed, do you believe? It, it's, it's definitely leg up.
14:25
I, I-- They're still, you know, both of them have got a big game on, on, over the weekend, and the SEC tournament could maybe have smaller implications.
14:32
I, I don't think the committee puts that much weight in the conference tournaments 'cause they wanna have their pencils down. But, uh, it's pretty close.
14:39
It would definitely be the driver's seat, the winner, and, and would probably be, uh, sitting in it, uh, for bracket projections for now.
14:47
Uh, but I, I, by the way, I do lean Al-- or, uh, excuse me, I lean Florida in that game. Golden's covered every game against Nate Oats since he arrived at Florida, which I, I think has some merit to it.
14:56
Swept him, uh, or won two out of three last year. Uh, just a lot more physical in the paint. They, they guarded Sears fairly well 'cause they know he really wants to go left.
15:06
Um, I, I think Florida's gonna be in that game, and I like getting a possession on the spread. Um, since I have a future on Alabama, let me just, uh, ask about them.
15:14
That's the only team I have one on, uh, of the contenders. Got that a long time ago, closer to the end of last season to the beginning of this, uh, 'cause I have some Alabama ties here. But it's-- I, I'm just curious.
15:25
A round of 64 two years ago, uh, or three years ago, Sweet 16 two years ago, Final Four last year. I think you understand the math, dividing by four every time. That would mean they would win it all here.
15:36
Do you really believe, right, with that defense, and lack thereof is what I'm referring to, do you really believe when you say there's 10 teams, I'm sure you're including them.
15:45
Do you see that as a, as a legitimate possibility? Could they really run the table? And you're right, they're right in the middle of a gauntlet now, a Tennessee, Florida, Auburn gauntlet before the SEC tournament.
15:55
What would you prefer? If you're an Alabama backer, would you prefer that they go deep in an SEC tournament? I guess this applies to all teams that are entering the SEC tournament. Do you prefer they go deep?
16:05
Do you almost wish they go out early? How would you play it? I'd probably lean towards going out early.
16:11
If I'm a team that's pretty well clenched in terms of seed like they are, I mean, they're gonna be one of the top six seeds almost inevitably.
16:18
So at that point, I, I-- if, if there's nothing really to gain on a run to the tournament, uh, you know, somebody else further down the bracket, like, say, my Missouri Tigers, could really rise up a couple seed lines if they go on a run.
16:28
But Alabama, yeah, that's a team that I, I think benefited last year from losing early in the SEC tournament, being a little fresher, kinda getting a reset, uh, as they went into the tournament.
16:39
Now, that run last year, I don't know. I wouldn't, I wouldn't call it flawless. Uh, I think shot quality graded all their games as losses, uh, narrowly, of course.
16:47
[chuckles] But, um, you know, fortune does matter in March. I, I think they're better enough defensively that, that they can win the title this year because the offense is explosive.
16:57
Sears is looking like first team All-American Mark Sears once again. Uh, and, and they do have-- Like, I love Diabate as a role piece. I think Youngblood's gonna make an impact in a March game. He's a great shooter.
17:09
I think they can get there, uh, and they're among that tier. But yeah, I, I'd put them a little less than the, the really apex group of Houston, Duke, and Auburn.
17:19
This is a terrible question to ask, but if I made you make a bet now on an outright, what, what's the value? What's the number? What team? Florida plus 950 probably? Maybe Florida, maybe Texas Tech.
17:30
I, I, I sit here as, as just a firm believer or a, maybe a foolish believer in Grant McCasland's team. But I think the talent level's really high, and they've had some ebbs and flows with some injuries.
17:42
And, and he's just a fantastic coach. Uh, beat Purdue with North Texas, uh, couple years ago. I know they lost in the first round last year, uh, Texas Tech. But they've got guards. They've got big men. They can play big.
17:53
They can play small. So that would probably be my, my value play up there. Otherwise, it'd be Houston. Uh, if-- I, I think I saw eight to one up there. And we're not worried about Auburn losing last night to A&M? No, no.
18:05
They-- [chuckles] I think they celebrated their outright SEC title Saturday and even into Sunday, and then they got desperate Texas A&M off four losses, who's one of the most physical bullies in the sport, kind of pushed them around a little, hit them in the mouth.
18:17
Um, I'm not changing my opinion on either of those team, two teams after that. All right.
18:21
I wanna ask you about conference, uh, tournament outrights here momentarily, but let's get your three plays, a three-pack of plays tonight in college hoops from you. Yes.
18:29
So we'll start off, uh, with NC State, number 700 on the betting board, plus two and a half Gonna be honest, this is mostly a fade of Pitt. I, I think Pitt is really circling the drain right now.
18:42
Uh, some of my recent numbers I look at make NC State favored by, uh, three or so in this game just because of how poorly Pitt's been playing.
18:50
Maybe you get a resurgent Panthers in the ACC tournament where they feel like, "Hey, this is our reset. We know things went down the drain late in the year." But, um, at, at this point it's really hard to trust them.
19:01
They've been poor again and again down the stretch. Now they go on the road. NC State's at least shown a little life. They, they beat Wake Forest to kinda submarine the, the Demon Deacons at large hopes.
19:11
I, I think the Wolfpack can take care of Pitt there because Pitt's just o- on their last legs. All right. I love that you give a rotation number. 700 once again on NC State, cashing the points.
19:21
702, sir, you have a total play. Yes. UMass and Saint Bonaventure, the under 702 as you mentioned. Uh, UMass was kind of crazy paced to start A10. They were really zipping up and down.
19:33
Lately they have played a lot slower. Some of that's their competition, but if it is their competition, that matters here, 'cause Saint Bonaventure is one of the 20 slowest teams in the country.
19:42
They wanna play in the half court. They've got a really stout interior defense. I think this tempo is gonna be really controlled by Saint Bonaventure at home in Olean, and they're gonna keep this in the half court.
19:52
Their defense is strong enough, and UMass can't really shoot from the perimeter, so you don't have that, that risk of a, a bunch of threes racking up here.
20:00
So under 139, uh, recent numbers that I use make this much lower. So big, big lean there and, and, and I'm betting, uh, the under UMass and Bonnies. All right.
20:09
And the third one you are, uh, laying the wood with Louisville. Is Louisville among the 10 teams that you sort of, uh, alluded to before that could win it all, or are they not in that group? No.
20:19
They, they're actually probably in the NCAA tournament team I'm, I'm a little more fading. Um, just really high variance outcomes 'cause of how many threes they take.
20:28
So against, like, maybe a, a more solid defensively sound underdog, I, I could see them having trouble, and they haven't played a team with a pulse in, like, a month and a half in the ACC.
20:38
That, that could be a real problem for them, just having to beat up on a bunch of sub-100 teams.
20:43
Uh, this is another sub-100 team, Cal, and it's a spot I really like where you get the West Coast team coming all the way across the country in what I call the jet lag game, west to east.
20:53
I, I think Cal's not gonna be very sharp in this one. Louisville, even if they're not all over them early, can extend late, kinda get into the legs of Cal and, uh, I kinda lean Notre Dame for the same reason.
21:04
You got Stanford coming all the way across the country to them. But more confident in Louisville, so that's the one I went with here for, for one of my three picks. Yeah. Cross-country, what are you talking about?
21:13
Cal's in the ACC. What are you, what are you talking about? Historic rivalry. Yeah. Oh, yeah. That's right. When Louisville plays Cal, throw the records out the window. [laughs] Um, what is the...
21:21
Before we go to break, 'cause I'll, we'll save your conference tournament plays here for the after the break. You are known to have a, a wide portfolio of futures plays.
21:28
What is the one you are holding right now that you, uh, sort of smile internally the most about? Yeah, I grinned when you said you just had Alabama, 'cause I was like, "What's that like?"
21:38
'Cause I've got just way too many. Way, way too many in the portfolio. Yeah. Uh, favorite one right now is probably Florida 100 to one. Whoa. Whoa. Or Auburn 40 to one.
21:47
So those are, those are two swings from earlier in the season. I got Auburn right after Johni Broome returned, and Florida was a pre-season one where I, I just kinda liked them. I, I thought they had some upside.
21:58
Uh, and that, that's gone even better than I could have imagined. So those two are, are sitting in really... Ac- wait, excuse me, Florida's not 100 to one, that's, that's the wager amount. Uh, the, uh- I was gonna say.
22:08
I was gonna say... the odds are, are 70 and 60 to one. That's still great. I have two different bets there. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. What, uh, uh, just rank them real quick.
22:15
Which, which are the coaches that will make a difference for you in, in your selections here? Todd Golden? Kevin Sampson. Yeah. Kevin Sampson for sure. Grant McCasland, Texas Tech. Um,
22:28
yeah, Golden and, and Pearl are probably in the tier below that, which is funny 'cause they've worked together. But Sampson and McCasland are my favorite two. Sampson and McCasland. Did not expect that. All right.
22:37
More with Jim Root on the other side. Conference tournaments abound. His, uh, plays in some of these outrights for these tournaments this week, the ones that are up.
22:46
It's a numbers game at VSIN, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSIN, the Sports Betting Network. Our VSIN baseball betting guide is out. You've gots to get it. Adam Burke's finest work.
22:59
He basically authored the whole thing, except for Jensen's, uh, piece in there. Mm-hmm. Jensen Lewis, former MLB pitcher, and of course co-host of, uh, By the Books here at VSIN.
23:08
He, uh, dives into players' perspective on evaluating pitchers. Everything else is Adam.
23:13
Market analysis for MVP, Cy Young, expert tips, how to bet baseball, including a stats glossary to help you break down key analytics.
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23:28
Get your copy of the MLB betting guide today. Sign up today at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. You got 30 team previews in there, Kelly, all of them.
23:38
Uh, Jensen on handicapping pitchers, stat glossary, baseball betting tips, breakdown of World Series odds, player futures market, including Cy Young and MVP. We got Paul Spohrer coming on the show today, don't we?
23:48
That's right. Yeah, we do. Yeah. In a half hour. What's going on? Yeah, I got a lot of homework to do for, uh, baseball betting guide still. Opening day in 12 days in Tokyo. Yes. Dodgers and Cubs.
23:56
Some NFL news real quick. Uh, Gardner Minshew to be relat- uh, released by the Raiders. What was your favorite moment of the Gardner Minshew era in Las Vegas? Oh, that time that he, um, uh, got sacked and fumbled.
24:08
[laughs] You remember it. I wanna say which one, but like, 'cause I'm sure there were more than- You remember it... but I don't know that. Vivid in my memory. We got tweets of beating the book.
24:17
Joe C714, Joe's been hanging out at Indian Wells already. He says, "Gil, you probably already know this, maybe you don't, but try to make it out to Indian Wells when qualifying starts.
24:25
All free games and can see all the open practices." He's been sending pictures. Just glorious. I would, Joe, but I'm doing a show, so I can't. That's like, that's a golf thing too.
24:33
Like if you're- Like go to a practice round instead of like the first round or the second round. Like, you can see these guys be a lot looser. There's not like a billion fans out there for you to fight through.
24:43
Like, if you actually wanna see them, you know, the players Indian Wells has a, uh, a field, a grass field in the middle of all the courts where all the players are working out and, like, kicking a soccer ball and doing all kinds of- That's cool...
24:54
yeah, you just, they, you're like looking at as, like they're an animal in a zoo. [laughs] It's outstanding.
24:59
[laughs] I thought you were gonna say you can go up and, like, talk to them or like inter- Well, you could try But you were, no, you're boxed out. You're boxed out. You could, I'd be like, "Hey, Amanda."
25:06
[laughs] Michael Harris said, "Gil, if you're looking for a new documentary to watch, check out The Octopus Murders on Netflix. It's bananas." I think I've seen The Octopus Murders.
25:15
Can I say this about a show on HBO, though? Y'all familiar with White Lotus? Yeah. White Lotus- I haven't watched it... White Lotus seasons one and two, spectacular.
25:23
If you didn't like those, I don't know what to tell you. Season three, slow. This is what you and Brian Ortega said yesterday.
25:30
I s- I said, "Ortega, you let me know then when it starts heating up 'cause then I'll actually start watching it." Slow. Three, three episodes, they're still building. I'm like, "Okay, any time now."
25:38
Okay, I'm glad for the White Lotus update. Did you really just move on from Octopus Murders that quickly, though? Like, what is, I mean- I can't re- It's, it's- Is someone murdering octopi? Octopi? No, no, no, no, no.
25:49
Or are they using, are they using octopi to murder people? I saw it a long, I saw it a long time ago. I can't remember the details, but it's a, it's, it's in California and I think primarily. It's a whole thing.
25:59
Anyway, that's a- Got me hooked on that one No, I'm sorry. I didn't do a better job, but it's- Dave got hooked on to that one... it's fantastic, though.
26:04
Uh, Yeet Ninja, "Every time I hear Are We, or the Are We Sure segment, I can't help but hear Joe Pesci from My Cousin Vinny yelling at the witness in the court scene. Perhaps a soundbite from the movie could be in play."
26:13
[laughs] That's a good idea. That is a good idea. Perhaps a soundbite from the movie could be in play in the future. Love the show. Appreciate you." Appreciate you. Thank you very much. JC Gobblegol, weight spike.
26:21
Look out. He's, he's predicting a weight spike from you? Is that what's happening? Hmm.
26:25
Uh, Stringfellow Hawk, yeah, bet 365 has benches at 9 and a 1, and Osak at 16 to 1 in that, in that quarter, and he's in North Carolina.
26:33
Uh, Joe C also said Bedosa pulled out of the Eisenhower exhibition last night as well, so she, I don't know what's going on with her. Mark Decard, Boyer not on the pick page. The other three are.
26:41
[laughs] Three Jack, "Gil, Boyer didn't make the site. You should threaten to strike if management isn't going to treat tennis bets equally." I'm telling you, man, it's all rigged against tennis.
26:51
Jim Root, kind enough to join us here for a second segment. Jimmy, uh, may- let me just say this. By the way, do people call you Jimmy, James? J- Jimmy. [laughs] Jim? What do they call you? James Patrick?
27:00
J- What do they call you? Yeah, Jimmy, James, Jimmer. K- My, my nieces call me Uncle Jimmer. Jimmer. So that's always an option. [laughs] What do you prefer? What's your favorite of the bunch?
27:08
Uh, I don't really have a preference, just not James. Just- That one doesn't sit well with me. Oh, wow. Okay. What about James Patrick? [laughs] James Patrick. That, now that one I love. That one I love.
27:16
Only said with an Irish accent. [laughs] Okay. Um, by the way, let me just say this.
27:21
I was very surprised that you did not have Golden in your top tier, and I was also surprised that you didn't have Nate Oats in your top tier of coaches.
27:29
Yeah, I g- Nate Oats didn't, uh, didn't really cover himself in glory in that final minute at Tennessee. Maybe I'm unfairly punishing him for that. [laughs] Oh, that was brutal. How, by the way- Yeah...
27:38
what was the, what were the odds on them losing that in regulation? Was just, it had to be off the charts at that moment if there was a line. Uh, incredible. Yeah. Well, there wasn't one for a regulation, obviously.
27:48
Um, okay, let's go to conference tournaments, and I'll sort of, I'll, I'll throw it out to you first. Well, let me ask you about one, and then you can sort of riff on which ones you wanna talk about.
27:57
But the, I talked about this yesterday briefly with, uh, Will Hill when he was on. The Missouri Valley, where Drake is a minus 110 favorite in this.
28:05
Um, he threw out a stat, though, yesterday that I think is obviously huge with them. 5 and 0 in overtime. Um, if they don't the, the, what are they? Lost four games all year.
28:15
If they lose a game here, they might be gone completely. Is there a bet in this tournament besides Drake? Yeah, I like Bradley. I, I think Drake plays too slow and methodical.
28:27
I, I'm just worried that that leaves them prone to upset. And yeah, as you mentioned, they've gone to OT, including against the worst team in the conference. They needed OT twice to beat Missouri State.
28:36
So as much as I love Drake, and I do hope they get in, if they lose in the title game, I mean, they'd have what? 30 wins or something like that. They, they, they'd be right up there. But I like Bradley.
28:45
Uh, they won at Drake. They're a really veteran team. They're pretty stout on both ends.
28:50
Got a big time shot maker, lead guard in Duke Dean as kind of their veteran guy, and, and Brian Wardle's won this event a couple times before. I think he's familiar with what it takes.
29:00
Um, so I, I, I think Bradley is, is my bet there. I'm in Illinois, so technically I can't bet that. Don't tell the authorities. Oh. But, uh, yeah, I like Bradley. [laughs] We won't, we won't mention it. Um, okay.
29:11
Um, the floor is yours. [clears throat] Pardon me.
29:13
Sun Belt, Ohio Valley, Big South, Summit, West Coast Conference, Patriot League, Atlantic Sun down to the semis, uh, which resumes tomorrow, Horizon League, Southern Conference, and the Big Sky. Oh, and the Southland.
29:25
I forgot about the Southland. Anything, where are we gonna go there? Oh, yeah. Uh, I'm, I'll start in the Horizon. I'll start with a long shot team that I have a, a future in on already and has been bet down.
29:35
At one point, Northern Kentucky was 43 to 1 at FanDuel. Uh, they're down to 20 right now, what I'm looking at, but I, I still like the draw.
29:43
They've been playing really well over the last month, the second-best team in the Horizon, 7 and 1. Um, they have been awesome in this event. They've been in the title game for the last six years.
29:53
They've got veteran guards. Their quarterfinal matchup is Cleveland State, who is reeling. Down the stretch, they lost five of seven to basically blow the number one seed in this tournament.
30:04
So you factor in this tricky zone that NKU plays, a veteran team, a coach who has been there and done that in this tournament. I think NKU is gonna end up being really good value.
30:13
Uh, if they can make it to the semis, it's all on a neutral floor, a- and then it's just a toss-up, and this tournament's always been kind of mayhem. So Northern Kentucky's one I definitely recommend.
30:22
28 to 1 at DraftKings, by the way. There we go. That's why we shop around. Mm-hmm. I love it. Um, I, I like a couple favorites in the, the Big South and the NEC.
30:32
Uh, I actually ended up parlaying Central Connecticut and High Point. I, I think both those two teams take care of business.
30:38
That gets you, uh, north of even odds or, or just about, so I like that one Uh, in the Big Sky, I'm a Montana guy there.
30:47
They lost in overtime during the season's final week, uh, la- last weekend at Portland State that cost them the number one seed. But they've been by far the best team in the league over the last month.
30:58
Northern Colorado's had some really fortunate shooting splits in that time, which helped them get the one seed. I, I think Montana's gonna assert themselves as the best team.
31:06
They were the team I liked the most coming into the season, and, and I think they end up getting the, the win there. Somewhere around plus 300 if you shop around, uh, is what you're looking at there.
31:16
Another potential long shot that I actually haven't got in yet, but I will as soon as this segment ends, uh, in the America East, UMass Lowell, a, a team that was maybe the preseason favorite, uh, it just was snakebit all the regular season.
31:29
They lost so many games by one point or two point or three points, and they've... They're rock solid. They've got the talent to compete with anybody in this conference. Bryant and Vermont is kind of a down year.
31:40
Their best player just got hurt, Shamir Bogues, so I, I'm not really that interested in Vermont.
31:45
I think UMass Lowell's gonna be a decent underdog play there, somewhere around 20 to 1, uh, as a team that could make a run. Bryant's the best team, but at the odds, uh, UMass Lowell definitely intrigues me.
31:57
Let's see, what else? Um, I kinda like Gonzaga in the WCC. Obviously, the price isn't great, but, uh, they're already in the semis.
32:04
They've dominated the two teams that they would likely play in, uh, in that semifinal, and I think they get it done against St. Mary's.
32:10
Um, the shooting splits in the first two matchups between Gonzaga and the Gaels were heavily tilted towards St. Mary's, so I, I still think Gonzaga ends up getting a, a win in the rubber match.
32:21
And I'll close it out in the Summit. Uh, uh, conference is kind of wonky because the number two seed St. Thomas can't make the NCAA tournament, so if they win it, the one seed Omaha gets the, gets the title.
32:33
But I think Omaha's still decent value. The one seed arou- around five to one wherever you look.
32:38
They have been the best team in the conference for a month, and it seems like people are still skeptical of them because of their non-conference performance that's weighing down their analytics.
32:46
The big concern is if it's Omaha versus St. Thomas in the title game, how engaged is Omaha? Yeah. Because they will have already clinched the, uh, the tourney bid, so that concerns me for sure.
32:58
Uh, but I still like their value, uh, if they end up getting South Dakota State instead or, or a Cinderella.
33:04
It's, it's the one seed that's played the best, and you're getting them five to one because of some stuff that happened in just November and December. That, that doesn't worry me.
33:10
Real quick before you go, you go back to the WCC for a second, but when you project forward to March Madness, Gonzaga and St. Mary's, where historically of, uh, among Gonzaga, St.
33:19
Mary's teams do you project these two versions? Uh, St. Mary's is probably a top three to five version of that team.
33:26
As Gonzaga, it's n- I, I know they're really high rated in KenPom, but I'd put them, like, eighth of Mark Few's teams. They, they're, they're missing some juice on defense. Yeah. I think I agree with you on St. Mary's.
33:36
Looks like a good iteration of them. Uh, Jim, thank you. Go make your bets, man. Appreciate it. Will do. All right. Sounds good. Thanks, guys. JBT next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:54
Back on the numbers game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Don't forget, it's the biggest betting month of the year.
34:01
March, championship week tipping off with the NBA and NHL playoff races heating up, PGA Tour in full swing, and MLB opening day just around the corner. There's nonstop excitement to wager on.
34:10
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34:15
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34:30
Guess we're not allowed to use March Madness. Is that correct? March Mania we went with? Don't bet blind, bet smarter. Start your VSiN Pro subscription today for just 9.99 at vsin.com/subscribe.
34:39
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin, wanna talk some golf? Let's do it, man. Big one this week. Big one. Fourth signature event of the year, Gil, already. [laughs] Is it really? Yeah, four.
34:53
Four already. [laughs] The signature events being the elevated events as- Correct... we used to call them. Yeah. Uh, the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
34:58
To help us along with that, we bring in our old buddy Byron Lindiquie, who, uh, by the way, gotta give him his, uh, street cred here.
35:04
2023 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Golf Writer of the Year, co-host of Back Nine Bets and Fantasy Golf Degenerates on the Mayo Media Network, and of course, uh, one of our favorite Twitter handles, @themodelmaniac.
35:17
Byron joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Byron? Gentlemen, thank you for that wonderful introduction.
35:23
It's a lot colder here in the middle of Iowa, but I've got this, uh, Florida shirt rocking and rolling, so we're gonna have a good time down- [laughs]... in, in the warmer weather hopefully.
35:32
Um, we were just talking about this off air real quick. We, we gave Paul Spora a whole background for those who haven't heard him before.
35:37
Um, you came over from, people didn't detect already, you, you from South Africa, your accent. From South Africa to pl- to play on a golf scholarship in Iowa? Correct. Southeast I- William Penn University, the Statesmen.
35:51
So, uh, six years there, three and a half degrees, and a wife. [laughs] A good, good period of time over there. And a wife. You picked up a wife along the way. Yeah. That's great. Beautiful wife.
35:59
Were you aware of the weather, uh, before coming over? Everyone said, you know, it's gets a little cold in the winter, but as a South African, we just imagined that would be, like, 32, 30 degrees at nighttime.
36:12
You go play some golf with a sweater on during the day. Yeah. No.
36:15
And then they also told me that it was pretty flat, which I do agree with, but everywhere they couldn't put a corn field or a bean field they put a golf course because golf courses in Iowa are pretty damn hilly.
36:26
So, uh- Yeah... yeah, don't believe everyone's words from across the pond. Before we talk about the Arnold Palmer, I, I said off air, I go, "Hey, you don't have any Masters futures, do you?"
36:34
And you're like, "Well, I don't have Masters, but I do have this." What was that? I have a Rory McIlroy PGA Championship future, and it's a 11 to 1 future out there.
36:45
I'm sure you can shop around and find that number out there somewhere. He has won four majors in his career. He's won four times at Quail Hollow, where the PGA Championship will be happening this year.
36:56
So I'm calling this the Holy Pentinity. I don't even know that, if that's a word. [laughs] But he's gonna win his fifth major and his fifth time at Quail this year. That's my- All right.
37:05
And for those who are, again, just to recap, y- what used to be the last major of the year is now the second major of the year after the Masters.
37:13
So the Masters is April, the PGA now in May, of course, which will be at Quail Hollow, as, uh, Byron just said. Then you get US Open. Wait, did I mess that up? Then you get US Open and then Open Championship. Yeah. Yep.
37:23
Right. Used to be that PGA was at the end of the line.
37:26
All right, Arnold Palmer Invitational, where Scottie Scheffler is your short shot at plus 320, and the aforementioned Rory McIlroy the only other person in single digits at plus 750.
37:36
Let's start with, uh, what are the characteristics needed to succeed on this course, sir? The characteristics off the tee are twofold.
37:44
You either need to be hyper-accurate, as in hitting every single fairway [laughs] as many times as you can, or just have tons of distance off the tee because the rough around you is ultra thick.
37:55
Then on the iron front, you're gonna need great, great iron play from 150 yards and out, particularly out the rough, because hitting these fairways is extremely difficult, and hitting out the rough, out of the thick rough here, is important.
38:07
So you're gonna be doing that about half the time.
38:09
And then, you know, you get the casual Bermuda putting surface here, so you're gonna have to be able to make those 5 to 15 footers on these Bermuda greens while hacking it out the thick cabbage around them.
38:19
So a full complement of skills and some good course history, because this venue's got some nuances, for sure. Okay. Uh, in the outrights, did you make any bets? I've got a Rory McIlroy problem.
38:32
I think if you come at the king, you best not miss. [laughs] And Rory, um, is coming at Scottie Scheffler, who is missing a little to the left off the tee at the moment.
38:40
You know, he missed the ravioli and got his hand a couple weeks ago. Yeah. So he's still kind of recovering from that. He's got a bit...
38:48
Some people have rust, he's got some, some scab maybe, but I think he doesn't have the A game that he has typically shown up with to start the season. Maybe Rory's A game can take down Scottie's B game.
39:01
We saw Rory at Pebble Beach absolutely demolish that golf course, and he's had great success around here in the past. Yeah, you, you have a...
39:08
When you say you have a Rory problem, meaning that you're all about Rory here in, uh, both tournaments that we just mentioned. Uh, so you did- Yes, sir...
39:14
you, you did bet Rory at plus 750 here to win, to win the, uh, tournament. Correct. I miss a d- I miss a dominant. Like, I like knowing that Scheffler is dominant. Yeah.
39:23
I feel like the tour just is diminished just a little bit not knowing that. Um, anything else? If you d- if you were gonna play anything longer than that, who might be on your radar?
39:34
If I were to play someone longer than that, I think Hideki Matsuyama is one of these enigmas.
39:40
You kn- you just never know what you're gonna be getting from him, and we saw what he got up to at the Tournament of Champions. He's a Masters champion. He's won three times in the last cou- couple months.
39:49
So at 25 to 1, I don't think he's a terrible bet. He's played quite nicely around here in the past as well. He's got the skill set needed to succeed at a venue like this.
39:58
The putter for him has also shown up a lot, like, which has been his big bugaboo. So I think he can absolutely take advantage of that and, um, at 25 to 1, I really fancy that one.
40:07
Yeah, this is a signature event, an elevated event, if you will, fourth of the year. Uh, all the big names are... Not all the big names, but most of them are there. Um, okay.
40:15
You bet this all kinds of different ways as well. Top five, top 10, top 20, top 30. Tell us how. Beautiful.
40:22
So I'll start off with Aldrick Potgieter, who is one of my South African natives, and he is just a demantler of big, difficult golf courses. He is second to Rory McIlroy in driving distance.
40:35
He played really well at the Nedbank Challenge back in South Africa. He played well at Torrey Pines, which is a similar kind of a golf course, and Mexico, another long venue. Top five for Aldrick, 20 to 1.
40:46
Top 10, 8 to 1. And a top 20 for a plus 300 over there. I think that's a nice little ladder to have some fun with. He's a very talented youngster. He's 20 years old, and he drives it a country mile.
40:59
So looking forward to him just really nuking it off the tee and, and getting his job done in that department. And Rory McIlroy is an avocado. I've called him an avocado a couple times this week already.
41:10
You never quite know what you're gonna get, even though you're holding a ripe avo in your hand. He's finished top five every single time he's finished top 10 in the last 12 months.
41:19
You have to go back to the Open Championship in 2023 when he finished outside the top five, when he finished inside the top 10 in a single tournament on the PGA Tour. So every time he pops, he pops.
41:32
So I love that top five bet on him at a golf course he's played well at. And then Min Woo Lee, top 30, even money. You will find Min Woo Lee inside the top 30 in 18 of his last 25 starts around the world.
41:44
So he's only got one top 10 during that stretch, but he is just a top 30 connoisseur, and I think he'll find himself inside the top 30 at a golf course that will reward his distance this week.
41:55
Byron, you do a great job on Twitter. I always tell people to give you a follow when you... especially breaking down success in the top 10, top 20, top 30 markets, um, that you and I both like to attack.
42:06
Uh, just wanted to ask you about Schauffele coming back this week and, and just thoughts on him, 'cause there are s- prices that are all over the place.
42:12
I mean, I feel like I've seen him as short as 15, 16 to 1, and as long as 24, 25 to 1. How do you think he's gonna look this week? Yeah.
42:20
So Xander Schauffele's one of the guys that hasn't had great success at a golf course, at this golf course in the past. But just taking a look, uh, Kelly, at his top 10 market.
42:30
If you take a look at his recent odds, it's all negative. Like minus 150, minus 170, minus 200 at times. He's plus 170 out there for a top 10, and he's a perennial top tenner.
42:41
So if you're looking at Xander Schauffele, maybe he's got a little bit of rust, but still not enough to keep him outside the top 10.
42:48
Maybe enough to keep him from winning, but I love that top 10 market for Xander Schauffele, whi- which has been his most profitable in a big, big way the last couple years. But, but no bet, just to clarify. Yeah.
42:59
No bet on him? No b- I, I'm a very passive aggressive bettor. I don't want to attack someone that's coming off of a injury.
43:08
I've bet him twice at the Zozo and the Sentry, top 10 markets at, like, minus 200, and he hurt me because of the rib. You know, so we didn't know he had a rib injury, and now he's coming back from that.
43:17
We're not entirely sure how well he's playing, so we'll hang tight on that bet for a while. I like that, a passive aggressive bettor. Let's recap Byron. Byron Lindiquist's Ar- Arnold Palmer Invitational bets.
43:26
Rory outright, plus 850. Uh, you can get him at plus 750 right now, but shop around. There could be a better price than that. Uh, top five, Rory, uh, at plus 150, and Aldrich Potgater at, uh, 20 to 1.
43:39
Top 10, Potguider at, uh, eight to one. We're going Potguider or Potgieter? Potgieter. Potgieter. Top- Al- al- although Byron would probably be the guy to officially ask that. [laughs] Yeah, yeah.
43:47
Well, how do we pronounce that, Byron? What's the official- You're gonna have to eat a couple bananas so you can say Potgieter. [laughs] Potgieter. There you go. I knew we were both wrong.
43:55
And then three to one on the top 20 for me. Uh, three to one. Yes. Uh, eight to one on, uh, on the top 20, is it, for- No, three to one on the top 20... three to one on the top 20. Three to one on the top 10. Pardon me.
44:03
Three to one on the top 20. Eight to one on the top 10. Um, top 30, Min Woo Lee. Uh, Min Woo Lee, pardon me, at even money. Did you have Potgieter in Mexico when he, uh, lost out at the end to the great Brian Campbell?
44:15
The great Brian Campbell hurt my heart at the Mexico Open, where I had Aldrick, and I also had him at Torrey Pines for the Farmers, where he was inside the final group going into that one. Oh. [sighs] Oh.
44:24
So the heartbreak's been there, but he came back to a top five. All right. Maybe the third time is, is the charm here with him. Thank you, Byron. Great seeing you, man. Thank you, boys. Byron Lindiquist, everybody.
44:34
You can follow him on Twitter, once again, at TheModelManiac. Kelly's thoughts on the Arnold Palmer and more. It's next. Numbers Game, right here at VSiN. [upbeat music]
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