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May 13, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | May 13, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | May 13, 2025
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33:50
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. So, all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
This is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, Sirius XM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin, everybody. It's a numbers game.
0:23
Un partido de numeros, for those listening in Spanish. What's happening? Just blessed to be on the air on a day like this, Gil Alexander. Yeah, man. It is a blessing. It really is.
0:33
We get to talk about- Best job in the world... some stuff. [laughs] And by stuff, you know what word I really wanted to use. Sienna Jean will join us later, talk PGA Championship. It is a golf major this week.
0:43
Drew Dinsick will join us hour number two to talk Preakness, the second leg of the Triple Crown, tennis. Um, VSiN subscribers, we're looking good so far this morning with our two tennis plays at vsin.com/picks.
0:56
Sadly, no new tennis plays this morning. Uh, but Drew will talk, uh, Preakness, tennis, and NBA with us. Jay Cohn on the NHL playoffs, Mark Borchardt on baseball. We'll do all of that. But we begin with the NBA.
1:08
There's two separate NBA topics we must discuss. We will save the draft lottery talk for the next segment. Okay? Fine. Let's do that. I can wait 10 minutes.
1:16
Let's do that 'cause I, pff, obviously we have a lot to say about that. As far as the actual games themselves last night, well, the, uh, one game was not like the other, let's put it this way. Let's put it that way.
1:28
Let's start with the easier one first. Minnesota takes a three to one lead on the Golden State Warriors.
1:32
They did so in game two last night with a 117 to 110 victory in a game that was not nearly as close as the final score suggests.
1:40
Although the real, the only point of the game you really need to know about, it was 68 to 68. Mm-hmm. T-Wolves went on a 17 to nothing run to go up 85 to 68.
1:52
Ant had 16 already in the third quarter by that point when it happened. T-Wolves cruised home from there, leading by as many as 21.
2:00
If you, if you were on the spread in this, though, [laughs] I just wanna point this out 'cause I know my little buddy Kelly Bidlin was on the, was on the T-Wolves minus the points here last night.
2:10
But in case you missed this, uh, the only thing that was noteworthy from a gambling perspective was that Minnesota led by 16. Remember, the close was four and a half here.
2:19
Minnesota led by 16 with under two minutes to play. Yep, thought they were gonna do it to me again, Gil. Yeah, I mean, it was easy-peasy. What could go wrong, right?
2:26
Um, then by the way, they led by 14 with one minute and 15 seconds left. Even, even more ridiculous. Cruise home, right? The spread, they, they could cover easily. Uh, then a Warriors bucket, a steal, and a bucket again.
2:40
But then Minnesota went up 12 with 30 seconds left. So still even, even after that bucket, steal, bucket, they're still up 12 with 30 seconds left. Remember, the spread is four and a half. Draymond Green's gotta cover.
2:52
And the Warriors get two free throws.
2:54
And then I, I can't remember the exact details of both of these plays because I was so mad about [clears throat] what happened in the San Diego Padres game, that's for later, um, that I can't remember how the, the T-Wolves turned the ball over on these, but Alexander Walker just kind of went out of bounds with something, so the Warriors got the ball back.
3:11
Remember, they're down 10 now. Santos hits a three. Then Divencenzo just kind of throws the ball out of the back, you know, the baseline, the, the Warriors baseline.
3:21
So the Warriors end up with the ball with seconds left down seven in a game, remember, that they were down 12 with 30 seconds left. Mm.
3:30
And then, uh, Quentin Post shoots a, uh, a 36-footer that came about as close as I could come shooting it from here. [laughs] But the point being, that had to have your heart beating a little faster.
3:42
That would have been- Oh, yeah... the most ridiculous cover maybe of the season. I mean, honestly, Gil, like, I was... I, I don't know.
3:49
I g- I, I was so wrapped up in golf yesterday, I, I didn't really talk to a ton of people about NBA heading into those games yesterday outside of our show yesterday.
3:58
So I was surprised when this got down to four and a half, and I added on a little bit more. So it, I know I talked about yesterday it being a smaller bet for me at five.
4:06
I couldn't believe the money went, you know, and the b- uh, the spread went that way. So I did add on a little bit at four and a half, and yes, you are absolutely right, especially after the last game. Yeah.
4:14
Yeah, it was, uh, a little clenching was going on down the stretch there. clenching. Little clenching. A sphincter tightening, ladies and gentlemen, I believe is the medical term.
4:22
[laughs] By the way, uh, game five back in Minnesota, where the T-Wolves can close out the Warriors. The T-Wolves are favored by 11.
4:28
Steph says, in response to, uh, something Draymond said, he said, "Even if I were Superman, I couldn't play in this game." So I mean, it's tough.
4:36
Even if you had a Warriors futures ticket like I did for the Western Conference, there's really nothing you could say. Steph got hurt, and that's the end of that.
4:42
Yeah, I, we, we, I mean, look, we weren't ruling them out yet, but you had to take one of these games at home. You did. To go, to go home and lose both of them, it, it's- And as I said yesterday-... intense...
4:50
I, I thought game three was the one. They were s- they had a chance to steal, and they didn't. Kinda when they didn't do that, you, you sorta knew. Uh, the other game last night, though, oh, boy.
4:59
Uh, Knicks beat the Celtics to take a three to one lead in that best of seven series.
5:05
Um, the Eastern Conference, remember all regular season, it was a fait accompli, according to everybody, that's French, by the way, Kelly, that the Cavaliers and Celtics would play in the Eastern Conference Finals.
5:16
Well, right now the Knicks and the Pacers are both on the doorstep. Knicks win it 121 to 113.
5:21
Boston led by 14 points, 72 to 58, but a 30 to 13 Knicks run to close out the quarter, the third quarter, gave the Knicks an 88 to 85 lead. That was their first lead since they led 28 to 27.
5:35
Um, Brunson had scored or assisted on 25 of the Knicks' 37 third quarter points. Fourth quarter, the Knicks got a lead to five early, but the Celtics actually retook the lead at 99-98 with 7:17 left in the game,
5:50
uh, on a Tatum three, but the Knicks took it right back with an 18 to five run to go up 116 to 104 with 2:25 left, and it was Katie bar the door.
6:00
The problem at the end of that run, of course, not only was that the biggest lead of the series But Jayson Tatum goes down, non-contact injury, and as a, uh, qualified Achilles doctor, I can tell you that's what it is.
6:14
He'll get an MRI. He'll get an MRI today that will confirm that.
6:17
But it looks like not only do the Knicks win this game, take the three to one lead in the series, not only do they overcome Tatum's 42 points, eight boards, and four steals in defeat, but it looks like now the Celtics will be without Jayson Tatum for the rest of this series, whatever postseason remains,
6:36
whether that's one game or many games. And if I am to give you the timeline on such a thing, next year's playoffs will be the earliest that he would come back. Yeah, brutal.
6:48
He was a- absolutely awesome last night, finally, when it, when everybody was yelling that they needed Tatum to have big games and showed up and played awesome throughout the entirety of that game, both sides of the ball.
6:59
Um, and yeah, that was, that was tough to watch, especially when you're...
7:03
Like, I don't wanna say, obviously we've seen some crazier comebacks in this, uh, uh, in this NBA playoffs, but man, the game was already feeling kinda done at that point, and if the game's done, then it's three to one and the series is likely done.
7:17
It's just- Uh, unlike the Warriors though, the Celtics are a five-point favorite in game five at home.
7:23
Remember, the Celtics do have home court, so the Celtics, unlike the Warriors, right, the Celtics have games five and seven potentially at home. Mm-hmm.
7:30
So okay, I mean, don't put the nail in the coffin quite yet, but you get the idea. Uh, by the way, the, the thing that was the weirdest about this, have you noticed that these networks
7:41
and, and nobody co- you know, the w- the networks, the coaches describing it, Joe Mazzulla in this case, no one will use the phrase Achilles rupture. No one will dare say the word Achilles.
7:52
It's as if, and I, I hate this comparison, but the only thing I can relate it to is when, when folks had, uh, HIV or AIDS in the '80s, there was this hush-hush thing where you didn't wanna say it out loud.
8:03
It was a very whisper, whisper thing. There was a stigma attached to it. It was a horrible time. This is the weirdest thing with these Achilles injury and lower leg injury.
8:11
No one wants to go out on a limb and say [laughs] it's an Achilles injury. So what if you're wrong? It, it's probably what it is, and trust me, it is.
8:18
It's just the weirdest thing, the hush-hush with not saying that word. Very odd.
8:22
Anyway, again, Boston's a five-point favorite tomorrow night, so unlike the T-Wolves and the, uh, Warriors, this hardly is a, is a done deal based on what the market price is, but the Knicks obviously in the driver's seat.
8:34
They will get a game six, of course, at Madison Squid- Square Garden if it's needed. Tonight, Kelly, Cavaliers seven and a half point favorites as they try to stave off a closeout against the Pacers.
8:45
Pacers, uh, game five up three to one in Cleveland tonight. And then Denver and OKC, the only series here in the conference semifinals, East or West, that isn't three to one. That is a two to two series.
8:56
The Thunder are a 10 and a half point favorite tonight in OKC. Any play on either of these two tonight? Uh, yeah, I bet the, uh, I bet, I bet the Pacers money line.
9:05
We talked about the, uh, talked about the series price yesterday. They, I, I feel like it's a little light still with them up three to one.
9:11
I, I think I'm just gonna bet this since they're gonna be the dog, uh, in every game that's left.
9:16
I'll just take the money line price, um, and I'm just gonna kinda mar- martingale my way down the stretch I think with this, Kel. [laughs] I, I got plus 270 yesterday.
9:25
Um, look, I think the Cavs could easily come back and win this game. I have, we have no idea what's going on with Donovan Mitchell. Um, look, I think that there is...
9:34
Y- y- you could be correct in, in saying that there's serious concern over something that you saw with, with him, or I think there's a chance that they were down 41 points and it was, uh, you know, a little convenient for him to come out at that time, uh, when he came out.
9:47
So I, I don't know what's, what we're gonna see with the Cavaliers, Cavaliers injury report though, but this Pacers team has proved to be good. Um, I expect them to close this series out at some point.
9:56
Maybe it's not tonight, but you're gonna hang this ty- type of number up there. I will bet them, uh, on the money line here tonight, uh, and hope they take it down tight. Otherwise, we'll be back in game six.
10:06
Uh, NBA VSIN Killer Sports Challenge. Right now, current standings. Again, this is a, uh, invite-only handicapping contest. 15 handicappers. Carl Sack was doing the inviting on this. It was his brainchild.
10:19
Grand prize is $3,000 for first prize, that is, $3,000. Um, Steve Fezzik, who has pledged his winnings to the, uh, staff here at Circa. Steve Fezzik in first place at 19 and nine.
10:31
Remember, we can only do pre-flop, uh, ATS, or totals. Those are the only things you can bet. No other derivative markets. Steve Fezzik, 19 and nine.
10:41
Zach Cohen now, sole possession of second place, two games back at 17 and 11. There you go, Zach. He also with two games left to play here in this second round.
10:50
Doug Kazerian in third at 16 and 11, and Kelay Bidelon tied with Alex Christiansen in fourth at 14, 12 and one. I see, I see you right behind us though, Gil Alexander. I don't want...
11:04
Now, never mention me 'cause I, I just wanna- What, what did you play? What- I just wanna show up at the end and people are like, "Where were you the whole time?"
11:09
Weren't you 500 yesterday, or was this your record yesterday? Did you not play anything? Yeah, no, I played the Knicks yesterday. Oh, you played the Knicks. Yeah. Oh, okay. Yeah.
11:16
I might be right behind Kelly and, and Alex. But the point being- Um-... that Steve Fezzik right now is the leader in the clubhouse, and, uh, can anyone catch him here with 10 games to play?
11:25
Biggest development after those games last night for this contest was me thinking, "Oh boy, I've got plays to make. Like, I have second round plays to make here that I need to get in."
11:34
Uh, the person we need to remind that of is Drew Dincic, who will join us later. Oh, we'll, we'll do that. 'Cause, 'cause he's got, he's got four left to play here in the second round. Better get on it.
11:43
And right now- What are his? Oh, he, oh, he's got two that he's already made, we can see. So he is on it. Okay. All right, we'll come back. Draft lottery, conspiracy or not, next.
11:58
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Hey, uh, Kelly Bidley. Yo, what's up? You wanna bet smarter? Yeah, of course. Start with smarter insights, stupid.
12:07
Right now you can check out Greg Peterson's MLB picks, Steve Mackinon's MLB bullpen systems update, and Aaron Moore's college baseball futures analysis. All right. Not supposed to use the words- That's pretty good...
12:15
stupid anymore, by the way. Not supposed to. Really?
12:17
Later today, you can check out Zack Cohen's NBA best bets, Wes Reynolds' PGA Championship preview, Jonathan Davis' best picks and props for the NHL playoffs, and Dan Park- uh, Karouk, am I pronouncing that correctly?
12:28
Dan Karouk's, uh, NBA props. Right now you can sign up for our annual subscription. Get 14 months for only $199 with promo code PRO. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today.
12:39
Dan, my apologies if I did not pronounce that, uh, correctly. Um, Skill Alexander.
12:44
By the way, the tennis picks this morning for subscribers, vsin.com/picks, we had Lorenzo Musetti, uh, minus a set and a half, meaning to win in straight sets, in other words, against Daniil Medvedev.
12:56
Uh, Daniil Medvedev, he is up a set and up a break, up 7-5, 3-1, so bring it home, Lorenzo Musetti, at the Italian Open in Rome. I feel like you've bet Lorenzo, uh, a few times this year. Yeah. Yeah.
13:08
The other one is we have the adorable one, Jasmine Paolini, the Italian, uh, to, at, at minus two games against Diana Schneider. This is, I mean, the most roller coaster of a match.
13:21
Paolini was up 4-love in the first set, then she forgot how to play tennis temporarily. She loses the first set in a tiebreaker, 7-6. Then she's down 4-1 in the second set. She's down 7-6, 4-1.
13:32
You're like, "Well, this is a loser." She remembers how to play tennis again. She rattles off the next five games. She wins the second set 6-4, and now we are on serve in the third.
13:41
So again, if she wins, it will either be a push or a, or a win on our bet. If she loses, we lose the bet. So we'll see. We'll see on that. The NBA draft lottery, so this was last night. I mean, it was really about
13:54
the changes in fortunes of franchises, was really the, the overall theme of the NBA. The Celtics losing Jayson Tatum, we'll find out what the results of the MRI are today, but again, you know what I think it is. Um,
14:06
that's catastrophic, and that's out for a long period of time. That's about a year. Um, horrible thing for anybody. You don't wanna see that for any team, let alone one of the NBA's, uh, greats.
14:17
Obviously, the NBA playoffs, uh, have been already marred here in the conference semis by injuries left and right, but that's, uh, that's the most catastrophic of all of them.
14:25
So changes of franchise fortunes to the positive, though, happened in the NBA draft lottery. That is if you're the Dallas Mavericks.
14:33
As we discussed at length yesterday, uh, there are fixed odds on which team will come up with the number one pick in the draft. The Jazz, Wizards, and Hornets were the worst three teams in the NBA.
14:44
They each had a 14% chance to get the number one pick based on the fact that they each would have 140 different combinations of the 1,000 ping pong ball combinations that existed, four numbers across.
15:00
A team like the Dallas Mavericks, by contrast, only had a 1.8% chance of getting the number one pick. You know what that means, Kelly Bidley? 18 combinations out of 1,000- Yeah... belong to them, and guess what?
15:13
Bingo, bango, they've got the number one pick, and the Mavericks get the number one pick. The Spurs get the second pick. The Sixers get the third, and those three worst teams, they all got knocked out of the top three.
15:25
[laughs] Hornets, Jazz, Wizards, four, five, six, and if you are a fan of one of those franchises, you're just like, "Well, you, we, this is, this is terrible." But hey, that's why they change the lottery, right?
15:37
E- exactly right, Gil. That's why they change the lottery. There's a lot of commentary this morning about the lottery. Yeah. There, there's so many different places we could go with this and start with this.
15:46
I'm glad you brought that up, though, because I, like, I'm not saying this is perfect.
15:50
I'm not s- I don't really think, I don't know about you, I don't really think that there's ever, this is ever gonna be perfect with the NBA draft.
15:56
It's very tough with how long the season is, with having a lottery, with how you should set up how the N- NBA draft order works.
16:04
But oh man, there is not a part of me that feels bad for the Washington Wizards who were tanking from day one of this season or the, how many garbage injury reports I had to read about Lauri Markkanen from January 1st on.
16:18
Gil, that guy had- Yeah... I, I feel so bad. He must have had 17 different injuries on his body. He mu- I feel so bad for Lauri. You know how I know you're being serious?
16:26
'Cause your eyes were closed for about 10 seconds straight- Really?... talking about that. Yeah. You're like, "Oh my God."
16:30
Just, sorry, of all the parts we wanted to talk about and complain about with this process, I will not feel bad for those trash teams at all.
16:37
Uh, Kevin Durant tweeting, "Tanking must be really stressful on an organization."
16:41
Kevin Durant, he of manipulating his entire career, telling, you know, making shady comments about other manipulation, um, or attempted manipulations. LeBron had the laughing emojis throughout as well. Let's see this.
16:53
I mean, it's just comical. Come on. Here, here's the thing. Here's, so let's, let's talk about this a couple ways. One, um, how did we get here with the Mavs getting the number one pick?
17:03
Okay, let's just by the book what actually happened. The Mavericks wins, went 7-14 down the stretch after Kyrie blew out his ACL. They went 7-14.
17:14
By the way, AD had injuries as well, but they went 7-14 down the stretch to end up 39 and 43 after Kyrie's injury. The Bulls, by contrast, the Chicago Bulls, went, uh, they, they won six of their last seven. Yeah.
17:29
Thanks, Josh Giddey. They won six of, they won six of their last seven. Remember the Giddey, uh, uh, half court jumper? Yeah, Gil, like it was a month of Giddey.
17:36
Yeah, it was a month of Giddey, but the one that sticks out is the one beyond half court that he sunk.
17:40
Bills, uh, the Bulls won, that is, the Bulls won six of their last seven to finish 39 and 43 in the Eastern Conference. By the way, the Bulls were never in jeopardy of getting knocked out of the play-in.
17:50
They were legitimately playing for seeding in doing that. There was no point to it. They just did it. So anyway, 39 and 43, 39 and 43, the Mavericks and Bulls flipped a coin They flipped a coin which came up Mavericks.
18:03
So the Mavericks ended up with the 11th slot and the Bulls ended up with the 12th. What does that mean?
18:08
That means of the ping pong ball combinations, the Mavericks ended up with 18 of them and the Bulls ended up with 17 of them.
18:15
So had that coin gone the other way, the Bulls would have gotten the number one pick per what we are being told by the NBA. If you are to believe the, the details of that, that's what happened. Mm.
18:28
A coin flip took this away from the Chicago Bulls who had the audacity to go six of seven down the stretch. Or they could've just lost one more game, Chicago, who's- That's my point.
18:38
They haven't figured out this whole- I'm just-... tanking or winning thing, Gil. I'm just, I'm just pointing out to you- [laughs]...
18:43
how the, how it went down if you believe that all this leg- is legit, these are all the things that happened to make it happen. Yes. Yeah. Okay? That's what happened.
18:52
And now you have a situation, by the way, there's implications, right? Dallas, number one pick. Oh my God, Cooper Flagg is the prize. Hey, San Antonio has the number two pick.
19:00
Maybe they package the second pick in the draft and the 14th, which they got by way of Atlanta in the Dejounte Murray trade, maybe they package that with Stephon Castle to trade for Giannis. I mean, who knows?
19:10
Maybe Dallas wants Giannis at number one. Maybe OKC wants Giannis. Regardless of what happens with this postseason.
19:15
Anyway, San Antonio perks, a lot of people betting San Antonio to win the title next year in anticipation of that potential trade. Two firsts and Stephon Castle? Oh my God. So there's all that, right? But then there's,
19:28
then there's the conspiracy theory part which is, okay, Will Hill, Chris Veleka and I have a text exchange that we have. This predated our one with Fezzik and Wishnev. So we still have a sidebar one.
19:41
I don't know if Fezzik and Wishnev know that. Okay. Anyway, Will Hill asked us, "Okay, we're all reasonable people here. In your heart of hearts, do you believe that this is fixed? Do you believe this is rigged?
19:53
Do you believe this is a conspiracy?" Veleka immediately chimed in, he goes, "No, in my heart of hearts I do not believe it is." Will said, "55/45 rigged." [laughs] 55/45 rigged. Me, I, Gil Alexander,
20:10
I said, "I hate when people go to the rigged thing for anything. I hate it." Okay. "I hate when people go to that." However- [laughs]... I added the phrase on this one, "I allow for the possibility."
20:27
And the reason I allow for the possibility is, is twofold. One, I said it yesterday on the show, we don't get to see the actual draft lottery. I know they bill it as the draft lottery, but it's not the draft lottery.
20:38
We see the results, the reveal of the draft lottery. The lottery, quote-unquote, actually happens in a back room with Ernst & Young accountants supposedly, right? Where they go through the ping pong ball combinations.
20:49
"Oh, look what came up," and then they assign that pick to that team based on what ping pong ball combinations come up. And of course, the other one is the history of this, as we talked about yesterday a little bit.
21:00
Ewing to the, to the Knicks in 1985. The David Stern envelope conspiracy. Derrick Rose, Chicago native. Hey, what do you know? The Bulls got the first pick. LeBron to Cleveland, perhaps the most famous of them all.
21:13
Um, Chris Paul and, uh, AD get traded from the Pelicans. Hey, what do you know? The Pelicans get the number one pick with Zion. Um, and then of course this latest one which is connecting the dots, Luka to the Lakers,
21:27
but we'll hook you up with a number one pick. My buddy Ray, [laughs] my buddy Ray texted me yesterday, he goes, "Gil, they had to trade, they had to, they made a trade white Jesus for white Jesus."
21:36
That's what he said to me. [laughs] That's Ray's opinion. So I'm just saying, with that history, I get it, man. I, you can't, you cannot with 100% certainty, I will allow for this comment.
21:49
You cannot with 100% certainty tell me that it is not absolutely, unequivocally not rigged. You cannot. I'll allow for the possibility. You, you can say we don't know. We don't know. I'm, I'm with you.
22:01
I'm, sorry, I think the rig- the rigged stuff's ridiculous. But, but- Generally I do... a- as a a- But I can't blanket it...
22:07
as a, as a, as a admitted agent of chaos on this show constantly, as long as my money's not involved- [laughs]... the craziest possible result for something like this I'm a big fan of, and that's really what we got.
22:18
I think if you're gonna go rigged though, you gotta... What's the top three? It's not just the top one, it's the top three. You have a budding Spurs franchise with Victor Wembanyama. The 76ers get to keep their pick.
22:30
If they had not been outside of the top six, they would've lost their pick. Not only do they keep their pick, they vault up to number three, one of the biggest franchises in the NBA.
22:39
And the counter to the rigged is again, well, did Kyrie get hurt by this rigging too? But the counter to the counter is it didn't matter if he got rigged, they would've rigged it anyway.
22:46
It re- didn't matter if he got injured, they would've rigged it anyway. Now where's Giannis going? Trade. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:01
The sharp plays, unmatched transparency with records updated daily. AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, alerts directly from the pros. Sharpplays.com. Check them out.
23:12
It's Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside here. I just wanna read this one tweet. This from Primetime Cowboys_Cubs1. "Yo." Hey, man. "There are only two plausible causes for this sudden rash of Achilles injuries.
23:24
The MLB pitch clock or the Dutch." [laughs] Reference to, uh, Michael Caine in, uh, Austin Powers. What does he say in this? "Only two things I hate in this world, intolerance- [laughs]...
23:36
intolerance of other cultures and the Dutch," he says. "Nice to have angry, uh, country club and Kelly, uh, K. Michael Bidlin back as well.
23:43
Any player award future losing tickets we can get him to discuss to ease his pain?" Wow. Yeah. Shots fired. Yeah. No, not really. Not really, Primetime. Th- that- Love you, man... that was a bad NBA award season.
23:54
Oh, it sucked. Yeah. It sucked. There was so many, so many, just so many close. Like it so coulda, it, it could've easily have been great. I only had the one.
24:04
I had Norm Powell injury The only NBA future I had, Warriors, injury.
24:08
Like, there's nothing you can say about them I think the one, especially with most improved, it's the, it's the award 'cause I've hit, what, I think three of the last five.
24:16
Like, I thought I kinda had down, and, and hit on preseason tickets too, right? So it was kinda that little formula of the star on the rise sort of thing that I was always targeting.
24:27
And man, the way this played out this year, Gil, it's throw out what, throw out the playbook because this has changed.
24:34
And I mean, I- the NBA awards this year, I don't think you really, y- y- you wouldn't have thought, you wouldn't have had a winning season if you didn't r- [laughs] uh, only if you bet them, like, in 2025.
24:45
Like, you had to have waited till February, March really to get involved in a lot of those Uh, this gentleman, uh, knows not only golf, but multiple sports as well. Maybe he, uh, wants to chime in on some stuff.
24:55
Siya Najad joins us from the Monumental Sports Network, of course, also CBS, uh, SportsLine as well. We always love having Siya on, or SportsLine as we're calling it these days.
25:04
You can follow him on Twitter @siyanajad, S-I-A N-A-J-A-D. Joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Siya? Gil, I'm good. What a great day to have a, a sports talk show. Oh, man.
25:15
What a great time of year. There's just so much going on. And since we're talking about awards, can I just tell you, Jayden Daniels, NFL MVP 2025, how do you feel about that, Gil? Oh, music is happening.
25:25
[laughs] There's a, there's like a choir in my ear. Go on. Well, I mean, so here's the thing.
25:32
W- we know, you guys know better than anybody that voting is flawed, and part of that flaw is people looking for narratives, people looking for new faces or additional faces to, to put on the, quote, you know, the, the Mount Rushmore, if you will, with Mahomes and Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
25:47
We're looking at Jayden Daniels. I think his number is at... I know I'm here to talk golf, but we're looking at Jayden Daniels. I think his number is in the, you know, plus 800 to plus 1,000, maybe plus 1,100 range.
25:56
He's got a new toy in Deebo Samuel. He's got his offensive line back, plus Laremy Tunsil. Uh, you know, you look at their projected win totals.
26:03
They p- probably won't win the NFC East, but they certainly have a chance to, and he doesn't need to to get this MVP award.
26:10
Uh, it just feels like when you look at Jayden Daniels as a person and as a football player, and if you're narrative shopping and you're looking for an additional face on a team that is very much excelling, he really checks a lot of those boxes.
26:23
So Jayden Daniels is your MVP NFL 2025. Go on. No, I'm kidding. I, I love when our guests- Yeah, yeah... hit the, like, the regular or semi-regular guest point, and then the guest gets so comfortable.
26:35
Like, Siya's crossed that line- Yeah... like, "I know I'm here to talk golf. Unapologetically, though- Yeah... I'm talking something else for the next minute."
26:41
[laughs] Siya, Siya, do you, do you get all fired up for the NFL schedule release tomorrow? Do you get fired up for that as well? Only to the extent... I mean, we know who these teams are playing.
26:50
I mean, I- for, for Washington, for example, like, we're gonna get a lot of prime time games. That, by the way, also feeds into what I'm talking about when it comes to, uh, Jayden being NFL MVP.
26:58
He's gonna have a lot of prime time games. So I think that part is interesting. But to me, the NFL schedule release is more of like, okay, now we can start to take the next NFL season kinda seriously.
27:08
We, we are still kind of far removed, but when I see the schedule, now I can start breaking down wins and losses, and now futures are starting to come out more and more.
27:16
So yeah, I kinda get excited about it, but it's mostly because of the time of year that it comes out.
27:21
Yeah, six games already leaked, quote-unquote, or announced, announced/leaked, and we'll give you the, uh, spreads on those, uh, here before the end of the show. Okay. To... Well, o- one more thing before we get to golf.
27:32
I, I know you're not an Achilles guy, but you've had your shoulder knocked, uh, uh, separated, what, like, 100 times? How many times have you had your shoulder separated? Oh, God. Yeah, seven full dislocations.
27:41
Seven full dislocations. Yeah. Why do we have to talk about this? Hurts my shoulder every time we talk about this. And you, and you pop it back in every time, do you? He's like Riggs. Is that what you do?
27:48
Yeah, five out of seven I was able to pop it back in, and two of them I had to go to the emergency room. And let me tell you- [laughs]... when you go to the emergency room, they, they don't just pop it back in for you.
27:57
Like, sometimes it is a brutal experience because they have trouble putting it back in as well, and, uh, that's not fun. Oh, man. Oh, my God. That's worse. They tried, like, seven times.
28:07
The last time I know I keep using the word seven, or the number seven, but it was probably six or seven times they tried.
28:12
And on the, before the last try, the doctor said, "Okay, we're gonna have to put you down, like, put you to sleep if this one doesn't work." Oh.
28:20
And there were multiple people trying to put my shoulder back in in that moment. There's- There were nurses in pinning down my other shoulder. It's a story for another day.
28:27
So there's, like, people holding you down while multiple other people are grabbing your arm and, arm and just trying to jam it back in like you're a Lego or something. It's like, it's like Lethal Weapon.
28:36
Yeah, it's, yeah. Riggs, yeah. Riggs, yeah. That's who you are. Yeah. Time settled. Little bit. I don't know why I brought that up. It just reminded me of, Jayson Tatum reminded me of that.
28:44
Tough, tough break for Jayson Tatum because next year- Oh... I'm sure you talked about it, probably a wash as well. Yes, a wash as well. I said earliest he could come back, I said is playoffs. That's, that's my timeline.
28:54
Mm-hmm. That's what, that's what they ought to say, unless you're listening to these hack doctors on Twitter who go with the Aaron Rodgers thing just so they can get clicks. Um, okay. To the PGA Championship, sir.
29:04
Let us start with outrights. Where are you on that? You know, in events like this, I really am conservative.
29:11
I mean, I'll tell you, it's, it's like the alt events where I'm gonna pepper, like, a five or six-person card because I think there are so many guys, not just the alt events, but some of the, the non-signature, non-major events where I'm peppering the board.
29:22
Here, I, I gotta be honest, I'm taking a couple of short shots, or really just one right now that I focused on. It's Bryson DeChambeau at 14 to 1. I got this at 14 to 1, like, two days ago. It's now down to 11, 10 to 1.
29:33
I also was able to take him two days ago in the without Rory and Scottie market at 10 to 1. So that's where a lot of my money is.
29:40
I did see Patrick Cantlay at 45 to 1, and I know his major championship history is not good, and he hasn't closed lately at all, but I, I can't ignore what I'm seeing from him, which is usually three out of four great days with ball striking and with the putter.
29:53
There's always a lazy day from Patrick Cantlay where he doesn't come through. But again, 45 to 1 is long enough for me to invest. This is really the theme. Kelly, I'll ask you this as well.
30:03
This is really the theme from everybody I've heard about this PGA Championship, is you did hours and hours and hours of research on this yesterday, and in the end you're like, "Here's the most boring bets ever That's kind of the theme here Um- Nobody's straying into- Look, it's, it's...
30:18
I think I said this yesterday, but it's, if you're a golf fan, I, I think we got an awesome Masters. I think we're about to get an awesome PGA Championship.
30:26
If you're a golf bettor who likes to go further down the board, these ain't your tournaments. These ain't your tournaments. In my opinion. Yeah. And it worked out pretty well the first time around with Rory.
30:33
But that, but that's more pronounced than, than ever before, it feels like. It's like this wasn't always the case with every major ever. I mean, this one's even so- Yeah...
30:41
uh, Siya, this one's even crazier than the Masters to me, and we said a lot of these same things heading into the Masters. But you're talking about Rory off a Masters win.
30:49
You've got Scheffler and Bryson both coming in off of wins. Like, JT has won recently. Like, the, the top of the board is as strong as it's ever been, yes. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I think that's the difference.
31:00
And by the way, I think JT is a good play too, in that 20 to 22 to 1 range. I, I mean, I, I, I don't think I'm gonna add him to my card, but, but I like him as well. I mean, when you... See, here's the thing.
31:09
The last few years, we've, we've caught something that we hadn't had since Tiger Woods, which is a, a couple of people, maybe one in Scottie Scheffler's case last year, but a couple of people that are dominating at the top of the board.
31:19
And when you look at this course, and you look at the PGA setup, it's probably gonna be pretty tough. Receptive 'cause of the rain, but pretty tough nonetheless. The rough is gonna be grown out a little bit.
31:27
Y- you're really, and when you factor that distance thing in there, and you got Scottie, Rory, and Bryson at the top, it's really hard to ignore those three.
31:35
Yes, somebody could sneak up, even like a Sepp Straka like last week, but this is a different type of course. Yeah.
31:39
And I think over four rounds, you're, you're really seeing, like, a top tier that we haven't really seen in some time. You do have a top 30 play, one top 30? Yeah. I usually play Corey Conners in the top Canadian market.
31:53
The reason I'm not doing it, I'm playing in the top 30, is because I do think Taylor Pendrith and Nick Taylor, who... Uh, Nick Taylor has good history here. Taylor Pendrith, I think, has good history as well.
32:02
I, I, I'm kind of worried about them eclipsing Corey Conners in this tournament potentially.
32:07
So while I'm, I, I'm gonna skip over the plus 160 I can get top Canadian, I'm gonna take him plus 105, including ties, in the top 30 market. Corey Conners has just been so, so solid. Uh, this entire year he's been solid.
32:19
Uh, at the Wells Fargo as well. The ball striking is there. The putter has largely been there. So top 30, it's kind of a conservative play. You could play him top 20 at, you know, probably plus 165 including ties.
32:30
But I tend to be more conservative in these finishing position bets, so give me Corey Conners there. And Siya, you're Mr. First Round Leader, uh, Bet. You don't have any for this one? Well, tee times aren't out yet.
32:39
So normally I'm on with you guys Wednesday, but because- Oh... of my schedule for the PGA Championship tomorrow, I just, I can't join you Wednesday. So I'll tell you what, though. I'll tweet them out.
32:47
I'm gonna tag you guys in the tweet.
32:49
There are guys I have my eyes on, but I'm looking for morning tee times, and so I'm just gonna kind of wait for the t- The tee times are coming out in, like, an hour or two, is my guess. That's an acceptable answer.
32:58
It, it is. That's an acceptable answer. Yeah. We will accept that. Um, all right. Next time we'll do it on a Wednesday. That's my fault. It's my fault, not you guys. Oh.
33:04
Uh, Siya bets them even earlier than I do, so I can't, I, I can't give him any crap. Uh, Siya, any- anything else you want to say about Jaden Daniels before we leave here? Or is, that was sufficient? [laughs] We're good?
33:13
I like it. Solvable? I mean- Yeah... listen. Yeah. Yeah, no. I said, I said it all, but, uh, I, I do think that's actually a pretty good look, especially if you can get 10 to 1 on Jaden Daniels MVP. I dig it. I dig it.
33:24
Um, and there's a lot of people who are like, "Well, how do we know it's gonna be, uh, good the second year?" Let me just say this.
33:29
If you watched every play like we did, there is nothing, nothing to suggest that there will be anything markedly different this coming year. Right. That's how mature this kid is. Mm-hmm. Uh, thank you, Siya. Mm-hmm.
33:42
Always appreciate it, man. Siya Najat, everybody. Thanks, Gil. Thanks, Gil. Uh, from the Monumental Sports Le- uh, Network, and Sport Line, Sports Line as well. We'll come back. Those NFL plays
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