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May 14, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 14, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 14, 2024
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44:44
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin.
0:20
It's rock and roll music outside of Bacon Nation this morning, Kelly. It's a concert over there. It's a concert. We'll fight through. Drew Dinsick on the show coming up.
0:29
How many different sports are we gonna talk to Drew about? Preakness, a little tennis maybe, a little golf. We have a golf major this week. I mean, definitely NBA. And of course, the NBA, right.
0:38
Golf major this week, PGA, Valhalla, and Valhalla, and then the, uh... Sorry, had to be done. And then the, uh... Can't do that for the French Open, which is next week.
0:48
By the way, that's also with the French Open schedule. Yeah. People are gonna look at it and be like, "Is this the French Open?" No, French Open doesn't start till the end of next week. Tennis is second major.
0:56
Qualifiers and stuff? Uh, yeah, qualies starting at the beginning of next week. Um,
1:03
and I wish, you know, I wish we were back in the day where the, where the picks in the French Open were sexier, but I do have a play on Iga Świątek like I do in every clay tournament that she enters.
1:12
Actually, every tournament that she enters. Uh, as she is, uh, headed, uh, towards, uh, trying to get Madrid... Excuse me, she got Madrid last week. Trying to get the Italian Open this week into
1:23
the French Open next week. So we'll talk to Drew about all those sports. Um, not to mention, a little later on, our guy Hasselbauer, uh, to talk a little, uh, PGA golf with us- Mm-hmm... uh, at Valhalla.
1:34
John Hasselbauer, who, uh, those who are unfamiliar with him, he does PGA betting and DFS content for the lines. @PGATout is his, uh, Twitter handle. Don't worry, he's in on the joke.
1:45
And then Paul Spohrer on baseball a little later on as well. Uh, oh, Paul Carr, Premier League. Huge Premier League day, by the way. Um- Double dose of Pauls at the end of the show.
1:54
Yeah, a little Paulie there and a Paulie there. Mm-hmm. Uh, Carr and Spohrer in reverse order, so we'll do that. Uh, before we do anything, um, the NFL now has five games scheduled that are locked in.
2:07
This is in front of the full schedule release tomorrow.
2:11
Five games are out, and just real quick, Kelly, to, to get us the, the five games that are out there and the spreads that are available on all of these at a place like DraftKings.
2:21
We know, we talked about this yesterday, that the opening Thursday night game is between the Ravens and the Chiefs. It's Baltimore at Kansas City. That's the opening Thursday night, September 5th.
2:30
The Chiefs are three-point favorites. The total is 47.5. The next day in São Paulo, Brazil, this is a Friday, this is on Peacock. Get ready, ladies and gentlemen, for all your streaming services.
2:46
We had a Peacock game last year, right? Uh, this is the Packers and the Eagles in São Paulo, Brazil. Did we? Oh yeah, we had a Peacock game. Okay. Oh, yeah.
2:56
I know we've had Amazon games at this point, obviously, but- No, we had a Peacock game. Yeah, you're right. We're- Didn't we even have a Peacock playoff game? We're really firing on all streaming devices, yeah.
3:04
Eagles favored by one and a half in São Paulo, Brazil, with a total at 48.5. That is day two of the NFL season. So again, the Thursday night opener between the Ravens and the Chiefs on Thursday night.
3:16
The next day, the Packers and the Eagles in Brazil. Then the first Sunday, we have one game that we know about. That's the Cowboys at the Brownies. You wanna guess the line on this one?
3:28
Oh man, I did not look at that one yet. Cowboys, Browns? Cowboys at Browns, opening Sunday. It's gonna be one of tons of games, but it's the only one we know so far. Man, I, I'd pick them. It's gotta be close to a pick.
3:39
Browns by one. Browns by one. Okay. Well done, Kelly Bidlin. Kelly Bidlin, uh, guessing college lines coming back this year. [laughs] That's why we should've done this today. 40- Guessing lines for one second.
3:50
[laughs] That's right. That's right. We should open with guessing lines. 44.5 is the total of that game. It is cracking me up, though. So what, what do we get? We have five total, right?
3:58
Four of these just getting announced this morning. One we knew yesterday. Correct. Oh, no, we knew the Brazil game too. Yeah, we do that. We had that too.
4:04
Uh, it is cracking me up seeing the movement on, [laughs] on that Chiefs, uh, Chiefs Ravens opener. All right, and then the opening Monday night we have now. So this is still the opening.
4:13
We still haven't gotten past the first weekend here. The opening Monday night, Jets at Niners. Aaron Rodgers on Monday night two n- two, uh, years in a row here. Jets at Niners.
4:23
What do you think the Niners are favored by in this game? I, uh, saw that one. Oh. Wait, this has moved up. The Niners have taken money. This is five and a half now.
4:31
I, I was gonna say, I, on my odds board I'm seeing sixes too, Gil, so, uh- Oh, boy... get your bets in. [laughs] Still time. I don't know why.
4:40
Inevitably, by the way, s- someone gets caught at the window 1:00 PM Eastern, 10:00 AM Pacific on opening Sunday morning. Oh, yeah. Uh, but this is the Monday night game. Jets at Niners.
4:50
Niners favored by five and a half. And then there is one week two game, and that's the Bengals at the Chiefs. So the Chiefs open home Ravens, and then home Bengals.
5:02
Week two, Chiefs are favored by four in the week two game against the Bengals. The total's at 49.
5:08
So, um, the initial reaction from people will be, "Oh my God, what a way for the Chiefs to start their season, home against the Ravens, home against the Bengals."
5:16
The flip side of looking at that is, uh, yeah, what if they win both of those games? [laughs] That's been, that's been cracking me up.
5:21
I heard that a lot this morning, like, we, we were, we were sweating that Chiefs stretch, uh, last year, but, uh- The Chiefs gauntlet... I mean, yeah, if they, if they start off 2 and 0, oh boy.
5:31
Was the Chiefs gauntlet last year or the year before? I don't even remember anymore. Remember there was a seven-game stretch? It was last. No, it was last year. It was last year. Seven-game stretch.
5:37
I forgot about the Peacock thing. You were completely right. Yeah. We did have a playoff game. Sure did. Playoffs. Playoffs. So those are your five games so far that have been announced in the NFL season.
5:47
Little palate cleanser. Tomorrow, the rest gets announced.
5:50
That's- The, uh, I mean, those are two awesome games [laughs] for Chiefs to start off with, but I mean, I'm interested to see what the rest of their [laughs] schedule looks like now.
5:59
Those are, those are five awesome games, as the NFL is awesome, and the NFL consumes us, but it is a quick reminder of, oh, there's a Peacock game, game two, huh? Day two?
6:08
Oh, so this is gonna be interesting this year We don't care. I, I don't c- as long as you can clearly direct me to where, where to watch games. Like, don't we have all this stuff by now? I do, but I wonder if most do.
6:19
Yeah, no, yeah, that's a good point. Good point. We do 'cause we're so locked into stuff, but I mean- I feel like I'm getting to the point, though, where I'm one of the few people with cable.
6:26
[laughs] I wish I hadn't left cable, I really do. You know, everyone's like, "Oh, I'm so glad I left cable." Like, I got games for everything. I wish I had never left.
6:34
Uh, and then I've heard the argument of like, "Oh, boohoo with the, uh, with all the streaming services. Remember how it used to be?" Well, I mean, that's not an answer, right?
6:41
Going back to 1978 is not the correct response to the, to the counterargument to streaming services. No, I mean- Where we only had two games every afternoon...
6:49
there was a bit of the, there, there was a bit of this conversation on, on a Pablo Torre Finds Out episode- Oh, really?... uh, about how basically all the streaming services are just becoming new cable.
6:57
[laughs] Like, how we're just all getting- That's right... 'cause yeah, where do I go? What channel do I go to? That's all that's becoming. Don't get me started. I...
7:03
If you add it all up, I'm probably paying as much, if not more. Yeah. It's, it's disgusting how much I'm paying right now, yeah. Yep. They fixed this again.
7:12
I mean, cable with NBA Pass, all that stuff, all the streaming services. Gross. All right, NBA last night. A little Billy Joel Piano Man for you, by the way, in the background. Um, okay, NBA last night, Celtics.
7:24
Well, first of all, we found out that Donovan Mitchell was not going to play in this game about an hour before tip-off. Did that surprise you? No, shocked. Me too. Shocked.
7:31
I mean, apparently he played through this the second half of that game, uh, the game before. But yeah, I was- He looked very comfortable...
7:37
I was shocked, and as I texted you, I don't know how hurt he would be, he is, or maybe it's just, "You know what? You scrubs aren't worth the, or worth my future." That leapt to mind.
7:45
[laughs] That leapt to mind because he looked kind of comfortable on the sidelines. Of course, it's hard to know, right? But, um, Celtics won by seven, 109-102, against the, the Donovan Mitchell-less Cavaliers.
7:57
So the Cavaliers cover not only the adjusted price after his announced absence, which got, which got to 11 and a half, they also ended up covering what was the number when people thought he was playing, which was eight.
8:08
So Cavaliers keep it within the number. They lose by seven. I just want to say about this game, Celtics take a three to one lead now back to Boston in the best of seven conference semis. Did you hit? You got home?
8:18
I got home. [laughs] Um- God bless NBA betting... I got home. It's ridiculous I got home, but I got home.
8:24
But the, uh, the Cavaliers had a billion chances to take a substantial lead in this game all throughout, like, the third quarter.
8:33
They had so many tr- I mean, they, they did take a lead at one point, but they had so many opportunities to have taken that, and then to have taken more. And then there's just so many missed opportunities, I thought.
8:43
They just don't, they just don't, didn't have a player just to rely on to score. I mean, that's as simple as that. It r- it r- they ran out of guys. Yeah. Like, I, you can't really ask much more from...
8:53
I mean, gee, I'm just looking at numbers now. Mobley, Garland. I mean, Caris LeVert's kind of been a no-show. Yeah, he was one for eight from three, but still get dropped 19 points. Like- Yes, sir. No...
9:02
they, they ran, they ran out of people. They ran out of gas, ran out of cars. More interesting game, of course, the Thunder and the Mavericks.
9:09
Mavericks went into the game, game four last night in their best of seven Western Conference series, semi-series. Um, Mavs go into it two games to one with that lead.
9:20
The Thunder get it done in the end, a 196 outright win as one and a half point dogs. The key stat of this game is that Dallas was 12 of 23 from the free throw line. Yeah. 12 of 23 from the line. SGA had 34.
9:37
Holmgren, 18 and nine. Dort, 17 and eight. Williams, 14, nine, and six. In defeat, Luka, 18, 12, and 10, triple double, and PJ, 21 and 12. But can I just say this about your Mavericks?
9:50
May I call them your Mavericks, so you have multiple bets on them? Sure. I am so tired of Luka whining on every damn play. I cannot be the only one with this and Luka. I don't think you're the only one. I think that...
10:04
I, I feel like, uh, everybody picks their individual player, though. Like, it's the whole NBA. Oh, it's not the whole NBA. It's, it's Kat with Minnesota, right?
10:13
Though the bigg- the chief offenders of this are LeBron James, of course. You mean he is- Right, he is the king... he is the king. He, he is the evolutionary descendant of Rick Barry- [laughs] Yes...
10:23
who I'm too young to even remember. Rick Barry, who used to complain on everything, uh, back in the early '70s. LeBron is the king of the current day.
10:32
Like, Karl-Anthony Towns, doesn't matter if anyone's even within his area code. Mm-hmm. He's complaining. Yeah. And Luka, I'm sorry, for as great as Luka is, enough already.
10:42
He is so much more concerned with complaining to the refs than he is winning a basketball game.
10:47
And by the way, I think the attitude trickles, trickles down because you have guys like Lively and PJ Washington who appear far more concerned with getting in kerfuffles- Yeah... and, and preening about stuff.
11:00
Lively's fiery, yep. Oh, it's ridiculous. Yeah. Y'all have won nothing. You're nobody in this league. Nobody knows who you are, except for Luka. Stop it.
11:09
Thunder win, and you find yourself rooting for the Thunder, if you don't have a bet on the Mavericks, of course. And we're knotted up, uh, two games a piece, headed back to OKC. SGA, silent killer in this game.
11:20
Again, just- So good... hitting everything from the mid-range down the stretch, 34 points. Never lets up. And he's the opposite, right? Oh, yep. You have no idea what the score is when he's playing. Mm-hmm.
11:30
No idea what the score is. He'll give one of these once in a while. I like this. Like, like a tennis player. Where's the golf? Yeah. Um, great series besides the Celtics one.
11:38
We'll get Drew's thoughts on all that, plus the Preakness, tennis, golf. It's all on the other side. It's a numbers game at Vs and V Sports Betting Network.
11:45
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Slashing prices. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Kelly has the, uh, the used car salesman sticker on the windshield feel. Okay. Carried over from last week, right? I had the, uh- That's right...
13:07
I had like the motocross, uh, "Monday, Monday, Monday." You know how, uh- "Get down to the fairgrounds." [laughs] Fairgrounds.
13:14
You know how we, uh, during March Madness, we did the most, uh, we did the whole what's the most annoying commercial breakdown? It was the SGA Chet Holmgren, What a Girl Wants. Mm-hmm. Yeah, yeah.
13:23
I think that edged out the competition. The l- the latest, most annoying commercial, NBA playoffs. They changed the janky phone one, by the way. They changed that one. Oh, did they? Remember we were discussing that? No.
13:34
They, they recognized people were not happy about it, like myself. Right. And they changed it, and here's the problem, though. They changed it and then they made it worse.
13:42
So now I'm the guy at home and I'm like, "Oh, you shouldn't have changed this," even though I complained about it. Any guesses most annoying commercial? No, what do you got? Where does the suit end and Perc begin?
13:52
Oh, gosh, yeah. Man, that one's really bad. No question. No doubt, number one. Drew Dinsick, ladies and gentlemen, I'm sure he has an opinion on the subject. He's whale_capper on Twitter.
14:01
He's the host of not one, but two podcasts, co-host on both, Jake Croucher, NBC Sports Bet | The Edge, is co-host on that one, and of course, Dinsick classic, The Deep Dive with Andy Molitor, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
14:13
He comes to us from, uh, the LBC. How you doing, Drew? I'm doing great, and I have plenty of opinions on commercials.
14:19
Uh, if your brain isn't broken like my brain is broken to where you know the commercial break is coming up and you get on your phone preemptively and you're not even pa- like completely detached from what's going on on the screen, then you're not doing it right.
14:31
Uh, I honestly don't think I've interacted, like inter- like th- lose...
14:34
You remember, I'm sure you guy- you know, you guys have probably talked about this, but when the Whopper, Whopper, Whopper commercial was going on and people were like tweeting about it, I'm like, "What are they ta- like Whopper what, what?"
14:43
I, I, like, it like completely missed me. Like, I, I, I, uh, I've kind of divorced my attention to the degree where, uh, as soon as, uh, as soon as the, the action is not live, I, I'm onto something else. Whopper.
14:56
Well, I don't even know that one either. Yeah. Oh, gosh. It was a Burger King commercial. Completely missed that. Ran for like seven years it feels like. [laughs] Yeah.
15:01
I, I know what, I know what Drew's talking about, but like, so I did this last night where I tried to, uh, you try to get cute flipping channels, right?
15:06
And then getting back, but like I, I did that and missed like seven points in a basketball game last night, and then got really mad that I changed the channel. Yeah. I did a lot of that last night. Well, yeah.
15:15
I'm just right into the group chat bitching about my, uh, my bets that are losing. [laughs] All right. Let, let- I, I got all kinds of complaints. Can you believe that this guy's still out there?
15:24
What is this coach thinking? [laughs] What is, specifically from last night, share with us, what was that? What is Dagon out doing with Giddy in the starting lineup? What is he doing?
15:35
I did not understand it in any stretch of the imagination to trot him back out there. You hadn't seen enough? You had to see his career end like that on live TV?
15:44
Like, what in the world was going on with that decision-making? I mean, the fact that they had other options and they didn't even try it for game four was amazing to me. They dug themselves a hole.
15:53
That said, um, I think ultimately ha- you know, the, the o- the o- the overall arc that you saw from the Thunder and all of those young men kind of fighting through adversity the way they did last night was, like it was a massive step forward f- for, uh- I thought so too...
16:08
that team. Yeah. Oh my God. Like, like s- think about how many times, you know... Okay, uh, great example. Uh, Grizzlies/Warriors comes to mind, right?
16:17
Like, I will go to my grave that the Grizzlies were the better, more talented team in that series, and they, you know, the, that, that was the right bet from the jump.
16:24
Um, but every time that they hit adversity in that series, like when the m- when the Warriors hit adversity, the vets knew what to do.
16:31
It was like they had been there before, they had been in the trenches, they'd been through war, and they all just did their jobs.
16:36
Nobody lost their cool, and every time adversity hit the Grizzlies, it was just like, "What's going on? Why aren't the refs helping us?"
16:42
Like, it was like nobody really like was able to like keep their cool and like just do their job, and what you saw with the Thunder last night felt like the opposite, where it was like, man, everything was going against them.
16:53
Nobody could hit a shot. They dug themselves a 10-point hole because of the Giddy nonsense to start, and then, you know, they just said, "Hey, it's the fourth quarter.
17:01
Uh, we need to tigh- tighten up our defensive rotations." We have a couple of defensive actions that I thought were just absolutely masterful when they knew kind of where Luka wanted to go with the ball.
17:10
Uh, and they had Lu Dort basically kind of shape his defense and thr- pushed him right into Chet Holmgren a couple of times, and it was like...
17:17
And then, you know, now, now you got length and you got Dort, and it was just like, oh, it was just perfect defense.
17:22
Uh, and then on top of that, uh, you know, sh- SGA and, and Jalen Williams, finally Jalen Williams', uh, offense shows up in the, you know, final four minutes there to, uh, help that Thunder team put that game away.
17:33
And I, like, you know, a young team making those type of steps at this stage of the playoffs I think is gonna be pretty, pretty darn important, and, um, they look the freshest and the healthiest of the teams in the West right now.
17:43
Uh, and so, you know, I, I, I honestly think, uh, sitting on some Thunder five to one to win the West, I'm, I'm feeling pretty confident having seen them make that step forward last night. There you go.
17:53
Uh, that, that definitely rises back to life, Thunder five to one.
17:56
Uh, yesterday I started the show by talking about the unbelievable change of mindset in the Nuggets-Timberwolves series, how, you know, most folks believe that the Nuggets as defending champs were probably the favorite, and the market agreed with this favorites.
18:12
Be- besides the fact that the Celtics had an easier path in the Eastern Conference that made them shorter, but generally speaking, that the Nuggets were the favorite to repeat.
18:20
Then they lose those two games at home against the T-Wolves. Everybody's minds completely shifts. I'm raising my hand. I was no different. Uh, and now we're back to two to two.
18:30
That's, uh, a game five that is tonight, and I'm curious where you stand on this with the Nuggets as four-point favorites in this ball game
18:38
Yeah, I think this one's gonna be w- I mean, I think this one's gonna be phenomenally close. I don't make this one four.
18:44
I'm at two and a half, so I would say Timberwolves would pass for me, but I haven't made a bet on this one yet. And really the answer is, uh, I can't tell you, you know, what the Timberwolves can, you know, what...
18:54
I, I can't see the future in terms of what adjustments Finch is gonna try to make here. Um, you know, you can point to the defensive intensity slipping a little bit from them from game two to three and four.
19:06
You can point to, you know, the offense starting to kind of get mired in, in, in the muck a little bit, particularly, you know, Karl-Anthony Towns' ability to create, uh, you know, some of his mismatches that were so important in games one and two.
19:18
And, you know, I'm, I'm not sure where the Timberwolves go to fix, like do they focus mostly on the defensive side or the offensive side and, you know, how do they, uh, particularly respond to the fact that it seems like the Nuggets have solved one small aspect of their defense where they were trying to keep Conley away from Jamal Murray.
19:35
And, um, I was with you 100% that, uh, the Nuggets losing those first two games, it was like, well, I guess that, that's, that's it. Wow. Yeah.
19:43
And, uh, it, it had less to do with the results of those games, which, I mean, obviously the results were important, uh, and it had more to do with, like you're just watching Jamal Murray out there and you're like, "Well, this guy can't play playoff basketball."
19:54
Like he's completely hobbled.
19:55
Um, and for whatever reason, the three days off that they had between game two and game three, it was like he went into a time machine and he's perfectly healthy again even though he's dealing with this calf ailment.
20:04
And, um, I, I think honestly if he can s- perform at the level we saw from him in game four, which wasn't like as good as, you know, playoff Murray has been, but certainly better than what we saw in the early part of the series, then, you know, the Nuggets are certainly live to get through to the next round.
20:19
Um, however, you know, the Timberwolves still have some pretty solid mish- mismatches here, and I think you've seen the Nuggets kind of respond with a huge game from Michael Porter Jr.
20:28
in game three, huge game from Aaron Gordon in game four.
20:31
You're getting contributions from the bench that I think are somewhat unsustainable, particularly if you're getting 25 minutes from Christian Braun and, and you're getting, you know, you've made threes from Reggie Jackson and, and, uh, and Holiday.
20:42
Like you're all, a little bit on borrowed time, and I think that this is probably gonna go seven, and I, my guess is that this is gonna get distilled to just what can Anthony Edwards do? Can he put on his Superman cape?
20:54
Is Kat gonna, you know, is he going to rise when, you know, they're in an elimination game? Because elimination game is coming, whether it's in game six or seven. Um, you know, what does Kat do in that moment?
21:04
Uh, and then, uh, in particular like, uh, do- has Jokic solved the, the Timberwolves' defense? And I, I don't know that the answer to that is emphatically yes. Uh, I'm hopeful that, um,
21:15
there's gonna be some opportunities to play some game six, game seven under here.
21:19
Um, but, uh, right now it looks to me like this, uh, the total is a little low for, uh, for game five, and if I was gonna have any kind of play, I think I'm, I'm leaning into the Timberwolves getting Karl-Anthony Towns more involved offensively in this one, being competitive on the offensive side of the ball, uh, and, uh, having this, uh, game be somewhat decided in the, in the late stages one way or the other.
21:39
And, um, you know, I, I don't have any skin in the game for either of these teams either winning this series or winning the West. I'm entirely against both of these, uh, squads.
21:50
And so, uh, I kinda just want this series to get real physical and go real long- [laughs]... and, uh, you know, whoever emerges being somewhat of a soft out in the early portions of the Western Conference Finals.
22:00
If your Thunder do get through, and that's a big if, obviously, that series tied at two apiece. Yeah. Big if. Yeah. But if they do, what's the series price against the Nuggets?
22:06
What's the series price against the Timberwolves? My price against the Nuggets is gonna be about -130. My price against the Timberwolves could be about -165, and I think the market is gonna be low on both of those.
22:16
It could definitely ma- I definitely could see the Nuggets likely being fa- road favorites in that series, and so I'm gonna, would have more, add, add more Thunder.
22:23
Uh, and I, I think Timberwolves probably gonna be closer to like maybe -120 pick 'em on at market. So- Wait... I'm gonna be Thunder heavy on both of those series.
22:30
Just, just to clarify, you said the Thunder would be favorites in both of those series? For me, yeah. My numbers- For you...
22:36
would have Thunder as favorites, but I think the Nuggets are gonna open as market favorites if that, that's your Western Conference Final. Interesting. Okay.
22:42
We'll come back, get his thoughts on the Pacers and the Knicks, then of course tennis and the Preakness. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
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Wow. Smoke-free and spit-free, huh? Huh? That's right. 'Cause, you know, you look around, some are smoke-free and some are spit-free, but you rarely get the smoke and spit-free together. It's the ZYN way. Yeah.
23:32
[laughs] It's the Z- it's the ZYN way. They- they're ZYNned to win it. That's exactly right. What'd you just say? They're ZYNned to win it. Oh, Kelly Bidlin, everybody. They're ZYNned to win it.
23:40
Um, it's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine, so much more than a producer.
23:44
Drew Dincic kind enough to join us for a second segment at whale_capper for, uh, or courtesy rather of Progressive Guest Line, from the Deep Dive and Bet The Edge podcast at NBC Sports.
23:54
Uh, real quick before we get off basketball, was, I was saying off air that in the first segment I was making the point that if anything, the Thunder are the more mature team.
24:02
The younger team is the more mature team than the Mavericks, who starting at the top with Luka have been nothing but whiny little you-know-whats. [laughs] Like Luka just cannot stop, cannot stop. And you said what?
24:15
Well, I, the, they're, they're kind of tilting the balance against them in this series because he spends, he specifically, but the Thunder, I mean, the, the Mavs in general spend so much time arguing with the refs after not getting a call that they're giving very, very straightforward, easy transition baskets to the Thunder.
24:32
Yep.
24:32
And I don't know who, if anyone is keeping track of this, but, um, I gotta tell you that that being specifically the difference in this series would not shock me because it feels like there's a free 10 points for the Thunder in every game with just the, the, you know, the, the, the time spent complaining to the refs.
24:47
Anything on the Pacers and the Knicks tonight, game five back at MSG where the Knicks- Uh... Knicks are now a one and a half point favorite
24:53
Agree with the market move, but I don't think there's a bet to be had on the Knicks right now. This is gonna be a very close call.
24:58
Um, I don't know exactly what the Knicks can do at this point in terms of making any type of adjustment.
25:03
I think they just gotta stick with what they got, and that's gonna be a lot of pressure to, pressure to chew out there. Uh, I think his offensive contributions are clearly and obviously muted.
25:13
Um, the spacing issues for Brunson are real when he is on the floor, and really with any option, any combination they can come up with, unless Deuce McBride all of a sudden, uh, you know, from, from the previous series shows up.
25:23
But, um, you know, I think the, uh, the p- Knicks are gonna have to slow this down. They can't win a track meet with the Pacers.
25:30
The Pacers proved that early in, uh, in game four where they were just like, "Hey man, if we run, we can really get these guys to quit."
25:37
And, uh, I think the Knicks are gonna come out and play a lot more physical style of basketball. I think, um, you know, they're gonna lean into the, uh, the whistle a little bit, uh, and you're gonna get a lot of...
25:46
You know, you're gonna get a pretty sloppy game here, and I think the under 217 is the, um, best way to attack that. And play a little, uh, alt under 207 and a half as well. All right, let's go to tennis.
25:56
Tennis' second major. Ooh. The Clay Court Slam, uh, begins, round one begins. This is always, uh, funny with folks because the schedule that they put out, Roland-Garros, is, is confusing.
26:07
But it's going to be the beginning of not next week, but the beginning of the following week. So m- so we're talking May 27th. That's when the r- that's when round one at Roland-Garros begins.
26:18
Uh, they're finishing up still. We're on the business end of the tournament in Rome currently. Let's just set it out for people who are landing on tennis right now.
26:26
You have clay court tennis and Roland-Garros specifically. So Iga Świątek is a young Rafa Nadal. She is looking for her fourth French Open title and her fifth Slam overall.
26:36
Once that tournament begins, she is the favorite. I'm curious if you would look any other way, and more specifically on the men's side, this is different.
26:46
We have a situation where we have injuries with Sinner, we have injuries with Alcaraz, Nadal may or may not play it, and then Djokovic had a bottle hit him on the head, and then he didn't look very good against Tabilo.
26:57
So I wonder where you stand. Let's start with women first, that might be easier, and then talk about how you feel about men's futures right now. Yeah, the women's side is substantially easier. Uh, don't overthink it.
27:09
Iga is peaking, uh, here at Rome. Uh, the quality of tennis that we saw when she flipped the switch on Angie Kerber and then carried through to Keys today was exactly where she wants to be in terms of- Yeah...
27:20
uh, in terms of pr- prep and, you know, kind of form heading into Roland-Garros. Uh, if she does not win this, I will be
27:29
sincerely surprised, and honestly, I would expect that she could probably win this with a little flourish. Um- Two...
27:35
do a little, uh, do a little, uh, um, you know, find a little long shot prop on wins without dropping a set type of deal 'cause, um, you know, the gap between her and the rest of the field on clay is massive when she is at her top form, and it looks like she's rounding into that as we speak so.
27:51
Um, Sabalenka, the only other realistic contender considering what we've seen from the rest of the women on clay this cycle. Uh, I think Goff is kind of a paper tiger.
27:59
I think Rybakina is a huge question mark in terms of health and fitness.
28:03
And so, uh, it's probably gonna be Sabalenka, Iga in the final, and if it's anything, you know, the, the best chance Sabalenka had was in Madrid, and she almost got Iga in Madrid in the final there.
28:12
And I think the conditions in, uh, uh, on Philippe-Chatrier- [laughs]... uh, on the, on the, uh, final Saturday of, uh, Roland-Garros, uh, definitely lean in favor of, uh, Miss Świątek.
28:23
Ben, is it time to take a sh- a shot at a long shot? Without question. Uh, I don't think I've ever, in all the years we've previewed, um, you know, Slam tennis, and it's going back a while now, um- Yes...
28:36
the pool of contenders is pretty narrow. [laughs] We're like, "Well, three or four men can realistically win this."
28:42
Um, I would say that's very untrue this year because Carlos Alcaraz's elbow injury, not only is that affect his ability to perform well on clay and get his, you know, spin and, uh, you know, get power out of his forehand, um, you know, he, he may just not be able to go.
28:58
Like, it's, it's, it's still, you know, he's-- we, we have no evidence to say that he's gonna be anywhere close to top form, uh, for Roland-Garros.
29:07
So he's, he being the favorite is amazing to me, uh, right now in the market. Uh, Sinner may not play also.
29:12
Uh, he's pa- apparently being recommended by his doctors to, uh, sit out f- the French Open and really kind of, you know, stay off clay for a while because of a lingering hip injury that they're trying to avoid becoming chronic.
29:24
And honestly, the wording of all of those reports makes me, like, s- like, like gives me chills kind of.
29:30
Like, oh, man, like, if this is, like, they're actually at this point in his career at this age, they're worried about chronic injury for him- Oh... that is, uh- Ew... that is a massive red flag.
29:40
So Sinner, uh, is a clear pass for me at the French Open, and honestly, if you wanna get French Open bets in, today may be the day 'cause you're gonna find-- you're gonna start, like, in the next week, next time we talk, Gil, on this show, like, Alcaraz might be out, Sinner likely will be out, Nadal may be out, and Djokovic, who the in the world knows what's going on with him right now?
30:00
Like, he is not playing well. The Tab- the Tabilo performance was so suspect that it immediately forced everyone to become a doctor on head injuries and figure out- That's right...
30:11
well, where did the water bottle hit him on the head? [laughs] And how, how badly was he concussed that he played this poorly? Was it the medulla oblongata? That's right. It was- Right... it was very specific. Yeah.
30:21
Yeah. Djokovic, don't get me wrong, [laughs] he has had some wild, bizarre losses, and especially in the later portion of his career where he has just completely no-showed in matches.
30:31
The data from that match against Tabilo wa- it, it was like- He got destroyed, yeah. [laughs] W- what? [laughs] Like, uh,
30:40
uh, I mean, it, like, some of the, some of the, uh, specific numbers you saw were, like, so appalling that I had to go back and watch the match 'cause I didn't even watch it in the first place 'cause I didn't think it was gonna be of interest.
30:50
Who did? Yeah. Uh, but no, I had to go back and watch it, and, like, his balance is completely out of whack. Like, I honestly... And, and he's the kind of player that does need reps to ramp up to be peak.
31:00
Um, and so he's likely, uh, an early out as well, which means that, you know- Not, not to, not to interrupt you, Drew- Yeah, sure... but I wanna get to the freakness too. So who, give me a name or two.
31:07
Give us a name or two pre-draw That- Yeah... would, would leap to mind for you as perhaps?
31:12
It's, it's gonna be one of, it's gonna be one of three guys, and it's gonna be, uh, Tsitsipas who's playing the best clay tennis of this cycle so far.
31:19
It's gonna be Zverev who has the highest quality, highest ceiling, and has not won a Slam. Uh, or it's gonna be Ruud who has made this final twice and ultimately may just have a soft path.
31:28
I don't think Medvedev has a realistic shot, and I don't think you can go that far down the board looking for a long shot price to really kind of steal this one.
31:36
So, um, take your choice between, uh, Tsitsipas, Zverev, and Ruud, in my opinion. I like that answer. Ruud, Ruud is the, uh, sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear.
31:44
He is really the sort of one laying in the weeds. Yeah, I, I- Yeah... if you made me, if you made me take one, it's gonna be Ruud, and it's only- No...
31:50
because the conditions really play into his strengths, and he has made the final here twice. Preakness. You kind of called your shot before the Derby, didn't you? Muth. Yeah.
32:00
I think he's gonna, he's gonna go off as the heavy favorite here. Um, Nine Horse- By the way, Drew did not just-... Nine Horsefield... did not audibly moan. He actually named the horse.
32:08
[laughs] Could you repeat the name of the horse? Yes. Muth. There you go. M-U-T-H, Muth. Uh, it's not Muth. It's not Muth. No. It's Muth. It's not Muth. It's Muth. Muth. Are they saying boo or Muth? I can't tell.
32:21
No one knows. Um, no one knows. Um, but, uh, yeah, no, Muth is a Bob Baffert horse. Uh, he was one of the best in class in the Kentucky, uh, you know, run-up. He did not run in the Kentucky Derby. You know why, Bill?
32:32
I mean, excuse me, you know why? It's 'cause Bob Baffert, uh, is a, uh, is suspended from Churchill Downs. Well, he is not suspended from the Preakness. In fact, he is a return...
32:40
He won the Preakness last year with, uh, National Treasure, and, uh, Muth got a great draw. He's the four, he's the inside speed. He's gonna get a rail ride. He's inside Mystic Dan, the Kentucky Derby champ.
32:50
He's inside the other speed in the race, which is all to the outside. So I think honestly, Baffert's two horses in this one, Muth and Imagination, are probably gonna be your two top choices. They set the pace.
32:59
If it-- especially if it's a cool pace, these horses could just pull away down the stretch, uh, and, uh, kind of be the deciding factor. If you want a long shot to look out for, I would look for Tuscan Gold.
33:09
Uh, he is the Chad Brown horse that did not run the Derby and, uh, kind of fits the mold of the cloud computing in the early voting where, uh, he could ultimately be the spoiler.
33:17
He's gonna go off in like the eight to one range, and, uh, I'll probably use him in some exotics. Um, but, uh, yeah, and if I have to make a, an official call, I'm gonna, I'm gonna have Muth over Tuscan Gold.
33:26
By the way, great job with all your reports. Great job wearing the hat during the Derby. You were awesome. [laughs] You really were. I do my best. Jerusky, thank you. Appreciate it, man. All right, best of luck, guys.
33:36
Drew Dincic at whale_capper. We're coming back. Oh my God, NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Oh no. Next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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34:49
Slashing prices on Adam Burke baseball articles. Wow. Yeah. It's vsin.com/subscribe. I lied to Adam Burke. I said I was only barring the Guardians for March and April. Yeah, you did. You lied. Total liar.
35:01
We get tweets at Betting The Book. Tom FT43 has the best tweet of the morning. He said, "Bad form, Gill. Sneak attacking guests, catching them by surprise." [laughs] So great. Tim Lawson also texting in the same.
35:14
He said, "Did that guy know he was on a live show, or did he think you guys were just chatting on the phone?" Did seem like we caught him, uh, by surprise there.
35:21
Nick G, "Off subject, but coming to, uh, Vegas end of June, staying at Aria. Besides coming to the D to see you guys..." Oh, that'd be great. "...
35:28
uh, listen to the Vegas Lifestyle pod, definitely going to some of your restaurants. Any other recommendations?" Kelly, you have any lately, uh, late to restaurant remen- recommendations? Hmm, good question.
35:38
That you've discovered of late? No, no, nothing recently. Man. Nothing new at least, yeah. You know where I haven't been in a long time, which I miss? Yardbird. Good spot. Best fried chicken over at Venetian.
35:49
Brian M- You could stay in the Venetian for two weeks and not leave, uh, like, not leave and be completely happy. Oh, there's a- There's so many good restaurants and stuff there... lot of places you could say that about.
35:59
Yeah. Brian M., uh, he says, uh, "The correct French Open parlay in Poland is Poland meets Greece." Uh, he was joking. He says, "Or Kot's soccer." He goes, "No, but really, Egut Tsitsipas."
36:09
I don't hate the Egut Tsitsipas either. Again, just anchor it around Ega. She is roughing a doll. Ladies and gentlemen, he comes to us from Austin, Texas. You can follow him @spoor on Twitter.
36:20
He works for FanGraphs, and he's down with OTP, which he'll explain. It's Paul Spoor, everybody. How you doing, Paulie? Courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Thanks so much for having me on.
36:30
Uh, can you explain what OTP is? We never really delve into that for you. Oh, Out of The Park Baseball. So it is a, uh, baseball simulator.
36:39
And frankly, if, if you're a betting nerd, uh, and I say that with, uh, love, not slander, chances are you would like a baseball betting simulator.
36:47
Um, you can play lots of different ways, but the thing that I do is called Perfect Team, and it's a card collecting game where you collect cards of real life players from over the years for different, uh, you know, stages of their career.
37:00
You can get a rookie card for a player. You can get their best season for a player. You put a team together, and it simulates against other human opponents.
37:07
So Gil, we could both create a team of different players, and then our, uh, the simulator would, would play us against each other. You have a season Throughout the week.
37:16
Every day is a month of, of games, and then on Sunday is the playoffs if you make it.
37:21
And then there's one-off tournaments that you can play where maybe you can only use the silver cards, which are kind of like mid-tier level players, and then we go against each other there.
37:30
So it's a lot to explain, but basically- Wow... it, it, it's, it's computerized fantasy baseball in a way. That's kind of the quickest way to, to say it. I love it. You- Remember Strat-O-Matic? You remember that game?
37:42
Which game you said? Madden, you said? Stra- no, Strat-O-Matic. You remember? Strat-O-Matic. Strat-O-Matic back in the day, yeah. Computerized version of that.
37:49
And Strat-O-Matic has their own computerized version of their game, but that's the probably easiest way to describe it to people that know what Strat-O-Matic is. Wow. And you are creating the player profiles, basically?
38:00
Yeah, all the content for that perfect team game there. So, you know, one week, one week we'll release Ken Griffey Jr.
38:07
Well, we're not gonna put out Mike Trout the next week 'cause that's another center fielder, and, you know, you wanna give some time for the Griffey Jr. to kind of be the king of the hill there, and then you move on.
38:15
So you gotta space out the content from March to the following February and kind of plan how it fits in accordance with real baseball, too.
38:23
I do stuff a- around the draft, you know, with rookies and prospects in, in July there. Uh, playoffs of course, October. So it, it's a lot of fun. It's a lot of work, a lot of puzzle pieces.
38:33
It gives me a, a newfound respect, even though it's not the same thing, a newfound respect for the schedule makers. You know, we're always clowning those guys, "Who made this schedule, man?
38:40
Why is there only five games today?" [laughs] It's not easy when you got a lot of restrictions, you know? A Taylor Swift concert coming into town, you can't book for five games over here or whatever.
38:49
They gotta deal with a lot of restrictions. I have to deal with a lot of different in- interesting restrictions like that, too. That was a spectacular imitation of me. "Who made this schedule today?
38:57
Why aren't there more day games?" Uh, all right, you're wearing a San Diego Padres hat. Now I, uh, my favorite season win total, I had two I made. I made the Cubs over. Uh, Cubs off to a great start this year.
39:09
They're now 24 and 18. Uh, they've sort of mellowed a little bit. Off to a great start, now they've... Still, still- Well, that's fantastic. Yeah... a 90% win pace.
39:19
Yeah, still right there, uh, a half game out of the, uh, lead of the NL Central.
39:23
The other one I loved was the Padres over, and the Padres started slowly, and then I had, uh, Steve Fezzik, uh, text me and be like, "Oh, your Padres aren't doing so well." And I was like, "Pipe down. Give it some time."
39:32
[laughs] And here they are. They're, uh, they're 500 now. Big favorite tonight against the Rockies. What has gone right for the Padres, and how bullish are you on them right now? Yeah, I'm, I'm actually pretty bullish.
39:43
I'm mostly wearing this 'cause I was out there this weekend, uh, a quick little San Diego jaunt. Got to go set the record, uh, for the Petco attendance. All I'm saying is that they never set a record b- until I went.
39:54
That's right. [laughs] So if you wanna say the record is me, that is your decision. But they never set a record until I went. I go, they set a record, ergo, vis-a-vis, ipso facto, I was the record setter.
40:06
Anyway, what's gone right for them? Quite a few things, in fact. Uh, and it was starting to look a little dicey early on.
40:12
Again, like are we gonna have another season where we have to kind of wait for the talent to come through 'cause we know the talent is there? No, it is finally coming through.
40:20
I will say in a weird way, and I don't ever root for injury, but maybe having J- Joe Musgrove on the shelf a little bit, not bludgeoning the team every fifth day- Yeah... um, has, has kind of helped.
40:30
Although Randy Vasquez in his stead hasn't been great, but the rest of the pitching has. Dylan Cease has been amazing. Darvish has been amazing. Michael King's been more good than bad despite having some bumps.
40:40
Waldron's been up and down, and then Musgrove of course was struggling. Hopefully getting healthy will be great for him.
40:46
Robert Suárez is a, you know, unfortunately only the second-best closer in California, thanks Ma- Mason Miller there in Oakland, but, uh, you know, the best in the National League right now.
40:56
Robert Suárez has been amazing. The bridge to Suárez has been fantastic, so they're not blowing leads. You know, remember their one run record last year, their extra inning record.
41:05
The offense is going pretty well, and they've even got a few guys that are in a lull, like Xander Bogaerts specifically. I have no real concerns about him.
41:12
Profar's been god tier and kind of picked up the slack for maybe some of the stars that aren't super starring, right? Like Machado hasn't been great, Bogaerts hasn't been great, and Tatis has been good but not god tier.
41:24
Well, J- Jurickson Profar's kind of picking up the slack for those guys. So they've got a lot of things working. The, the Luis Urías trade was great. The fan base is a billion percent behind them there.
41:34
That was a heck of a game. Of course, I will say that the record was set at least in part to the fact that the Dodgers were there and they had a very strong contingent. But this Padres team is good.
41:43
I like what they've got, and we know that they'll remain aggressive.
41:46
A big injury or two, like they're still gonna go out and try to replace guys, and so they're gonna try to be there all the- all year even though they have to go up against that juggernaut Dodgers team.
41:55
Give me the team, either AL or NL, 'cause someone was asking me the other day about the Oakland A's, and the Oakland A's have been absolutely pesky. They're 19 and 24.
42:04
And you can bet specifically who's going to end up in the number six position, uh, for the playoffs in either league, which is obviously the, the last position, which is really interesting because you can get really favorable odds on that kind of thing.
42:18
Give me just generally the team that is sub 500 right now in baseball that you think is the best of all of them, and the one that you have the most hope for heading into a postseason. That is really interesting.
42:32
I'll take one of the easy answers and say like I'm still pretty keen on the Diamondbacks despite some things not going their way at 20 and 22.
42:39
Corbin Carroll looks really off right now, although that new, uh, bat speed metric over at Baseball Savant says his bat hasn't slowed down. I know there was a lot of speculation there that with the shoulder
42:51
maybe the bat has slowed down a bit, at least from a pure velocity swing standpoint. It hasn't really, although th- this is the first year of that data.
42:59
But then for a team that is maybe a bit more off the radar, you mentioned the A's, and they have been pesky. They've got Mason Miller as the best closer in baseball, and they are hitting bombs.
43:07
But push come to shove, I just don't think they have enough horses. I'll tell you the team that could still do it. They started strong and then immediately hit a lull.
43:15
I still am pretty interested in that Pirates ball club. Mm. They need to figure out some offense. Uh, Skeens, you know, Matt, talked with Matt Brown in this slot last week. We were pretty excited about the Skeens debut.
43:27
I feel pretty good about that. Uh, we told people, you know, you could still go out there and get a Rookie of the Year ticket. He didn't go out and have the best debut, but you saw how it works, right? Like you...
43:36
It makes sense how this could definitely work, and four innings, three runs is hardly a bad start when you've got seven Ks, two walks. That's not too bad.
43:44
He and Jared Jones, Skeens and Jared Jones at the top of that rotation are really, really strong. The offense needs to start pulling their weight. There was a lot of excitement about Oneil Cruz coming into the year.
43:52
He just recently hit the IL. They have to hope that when he comes back he's ready to kind of do what he was supposed to do. Oneil Cruz has finally started to turn the ship around.
44:01
Jack Suinski, Henry Davis, like they've got some pieces, but they would need to start pulling their weight. The pitching is pulling their weight right now. I do think the Pirates are still pretty intriguing.
44:12
And then one other team I'll say is the Mets. If Kodai Senga gets going when he comes back, they could find enough pitching, and I think they have a decent enough lineup, too.
44:21
So the Mets, Pirates, and then, um, uh, like I said, the Diamondbacks are kind of an easy one. Paulie, great seeing you. Appreciate it, and congratulations on all the, uh, on all the gigs. Thanks. Appreciate it, Gil.
44:32
Take care. Paul Spohr setting records in San Diego. @spohr on Twitter. Paul Carr on the Premier League and more. Little Crawley Town next. [upbeat music]
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