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May 15, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 15, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 15, 2024
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44:35
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. It's all proudly brought to you by DraftKings from Bar Canada here at The D. It's Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Bidlin.
0:21
What's up? Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. What's happening? Not much, man. Not much. I'd like to update people on the, uh, status of the, uh, Bar Canada at The D.
0:30
The music, after a painstaking daily process, appears to have been solved. Oh, man, don't, don't say that. Don't- But I have a very large stain here by my chair, which I have no idea how that came. It's a whole thing.
0:43
I, uh, I think- We need a newspaper. I then want to figure out if it was, uh, if it was liquefied at all or anything. I don't want to know what that is.
0:50
I believe it's hardened at this point, Gil, but, uh, luckily we have, uh, we have Sean McCollum, who always has newspaper on hand because, uh- That's right... still keeping the newspaper business thriving.
0:59
[laughs] A great guy, Sean McCollum. Single-handedly. That's right. And I made a joke about, uh, Big Daddy, right? Where it was the Adam Sandler movie, right, where he just lays, he lays newspaper over spills.
1:09
I was like, "If only we had a newspaper." And then I was like, "Oh, yeah, Sean, give me a section of the newspaper." [laughs] You're good to go, man. Stop complaining.
1:15
No, we removed the newspaper, so we're not, we're not really sure if we're good to go. Uh, on the show today, JVT, our senior NBA analyst, and of course the co-host of VSiN Prime Time, to talk NBA playoffs with us.
1:25
What a night in the NBA playoffs. We'll get to that momentarily. Will Hill with all his bets on the way, and, uh, Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke.
1:32
Jason Weingarten, who is going to be flying out, as are so many of our buddies. Rufus was talking about he's flying out as well. Everybody going to see Crawley- Yeah, yeah... at Wembley, baby.
1:41
Yep, I heard, heard Rufus and Jeff Baugh talking about it yesterday. Man, that's a crazy, crazy story. Lord knows those two couldn't let it not be public. They're going. So they're on their way.
1:50
We're all rooting for Preston. Let's go. Jason's part. Jeff said he's not actually. [laughs] He's got something going on. He was, he was jealous. Yeah, I'm not going either. Same thing. I was like, I got other stuff.
2:01
Uh, I'd love to go, though. That'd be awesome. Oh, what an experience that would be. Oh, are you kidding me? At Wembley? It'd be great. Um, real quick, because we did this yesterday, it is schedule day.
2:11
I got schedule fever. What other sport would we do this for? I guess college football to some degree as well, but like could you imagine the equivalent in other sports?
2:19
Like, oh, the hockey schedule comes out today or something like that. [laughs] The NBA schedule. Baseball schedule. I can't wait to find out. Uh- We're gonna break down week by week in the NBA.
2:28
Of course, we're talking about the NFL, and tonight we have a special, a special edition of The Handle. Yes. Matt Brown and Mike Somich together.
2:36
Matt Brown, our old Prime Time action co-host, and, uh, you think he likes that? He's the co-host of currently of The Handle. You think he likes still being talked about at Prime Time Action?
2:44
Uh, and then- I would hope so. I would hope so, too. At least tagged on. You know what I mean? Greatest, greatest show ever canceled. And then Somo bombing tonight- Yeah...
2:51
at, uh, where Greg Peterson is usually in, in with his slot. Correct, yes. So that is- 9:00 Eastern... 9:00 Eastern, and they're gonna go through the schedule release.
3:00
They're gonna talk about, you know, all the little quirks they can find. Where is there a gauntlet? Who's playing three road games in a row? Who's got the most aggregate rest? Who's got the, the least aggregate rest?
3:09
Hope I'm not overselling it, but that's what they're gonna be doing. [laughs] Sorry, guys. That's what they're gonna be doing, uh, with the full schedule analysis. And as we- And, and Tim and JVT getting it started. Yes.
3:17
They're getting it started the hour beforehand, yeah. Tim Murray and JVT, who'll be with us. By the way, we, we started the show yesterday with new games that have sort of bled into or sort of been leaked, I should say.
3:27
We have a few more games that have been leaked, uh, particularly of the international variety. Although, uh, Kelly, we do have, uh, let's see, we had one game added.
3:37
We got a Buffalo, uh, Bills-Dolphins game that was added as well between yesterday and today.
3:43
Uh, that is on- So is, is that the, that's the, that's got to be the team league stuff we're just gonna get now between now and- And it's the networks who each have these games. So this is the second Thursday.
3:52
So the Thursday night game of week two- Oh, okay, maybe it was just a game... is the Bills at the Dolphins. Okay. And the Dolphins are favored by one. But then we have a slew of international games.
4:00
Remember, we already had the Packers at the Eagles in São Paulo the second day of the season.
4:05
So the, the Friday night directly after the first Thursday night opener, uh, we had the, uh, Packers at the Eagles, September 6th in São Paulo.
4:13
And as we mentioned, São Paulo, by the way, and we mentioned that the, uh, the Eagles are one-and-a-half point favorites in that game with a total of 48 and a half.
4:19
Well, now we have a series of London games and a Munich game. So October 6th in London, the Jets are at the Vikings. Does that excite you, Kelly?
4:29
Vikings are gonna be three-and-a-half point dogs on the neutral field, even though it's a quote-unquote, "home game" for them. You know how that works. Uh, yeah, that's not a bad matchup. No, it's very nice.
4:39
Uh, and then, uh, October 13th in London, the week after that, it's when the Jaguars, of course, play their requisite games in London, because remember, they do well economically in London, the Jaguars do, even better than they have done historically at home.
4:53
Hmm. Jaguars are gonna be at the Bears October 13th, at in quotes, right? Jaguars are gonna be, are, are half point dogs against the Bears that October 13th game. And then the Patriots- Hmm...
5:05
quote-unquote, "at the Jaguars" also in London the following week, October 20th. The Jags have been installed, 'cause remember, you can't bet it unless it's installed, Kelly.
5:14
Six point favorites in that game against the Patriots. [laughs] I was eager to hear that one. Okay. Yeah.
5:19
And then the only other one, uh, get ready Munich, on November 10th, Munich, Germany, Giants, Panthers, catch the fever. Poor guys. Giants favored by a half a point. Those are, those lines are kind of...
5:32
What was the Jags-Bears one? That's exactly the one that I was curious about, too. The Bears are half point favorites over the Jags. Yes. And remember, when we were going over the...
5:42
Remember, the schedule released today is actual dates and when teams are playing other teams, but we've already known the opponents.
5:48
And when Kelly and I went over what we felt were proper bets based on just the opponents, remember, I bet the Bengals to win the, the NFC North.
5:57
[laughs] Um, and then the over-unders I liked, one of the One of the ones I really like is, as much as I love the Houston Texans, and so many of us do, based on the schedule that they're playing, I liked the Texans under and I liked the Jaguars over.
6:11
Remember, none of this is a perfect graph ever- Yeah... with NFL teams.
6:15
So the fact that the Bears are half-point favorites against the Jaguars, yes, it is a neutral, but half-point favorites on a neutral, that's curious to me. It's curious to me.
6:23
Yeah, yeah, curious to me as well, especially then, so, so we can say that there's a six-and-a-half point difference between the Patriots and the Bears? Uh, yep.
6:32
I mean, I think the Bear- I mean, I think the Patriots gonna be really awful, but wow. Yeah. For a guy who, as much as we love Caleb Williams, has never taken a snap- Right... at the pro level. So yeah.
6:41
Anyway, today, that's your NFL International series. That's leaked. But the whole schedule stuff with, uh, Brown and Samich later today here on the network. Can't wait for that. Uh- They have thrown me off.
6:50
I don't know, I don't, I don't... We've talked about this a little. You and I bet, both bet the Bengals.
6:54
I've made a couple other small bets, but the whole, like, now that everything gets a, like, all the bets get posted, all the markets get posted so quick, it's thrown me out of my normal, like, betting schedule with the NFL off-season.
7:06
Yeah. You know what I mean? Like, I mean, win totals, I haven't bet win totals. Obviously, you need, wanna wait for this kind of stuff to see.
7:13
But it's just kind of a shame 'cause you feel like you're getting win totals as soon as they're, you know, as soon as they're released, you're able to jump on them because you got the schedule information.
7:21
But nah, like win total's been up for what, two months? 365 days a year, the NFL now. It's wild. Yeah. It's amazing. I mean, and good on the books. I'd be doing the same thing- Oh, for real... if I were in their shoes.
7:30
Uh, the other big news this morning, uh, for you who are into the Triple Crown, remember, uh, coming off Mystic Dan's Kentucky Derby win, Mystic Dan, the only horse that could obviously win the Triple Crown.
7:41
Um, but you know, folks thought that Fierceness would be the, the horse to, to beat in the Derby. Didn't happen. Fierceness finished 15th.
7:49
Uh, but going into the Preakness, including as recently as yesterday, we had Drew Dincic on. Everybody loved Muth. Everybody loved Muth. Remember, Drew was like, "Muth."
7:59
And we're like, "Wait, was that the name of the horse? Or what are you talking about?" Muth has been scratched as of this morning. So Muth is out of the second leg of the Triple Crown.
8:08
Uh, Preakness favorite, Muth, is gone. Ruled out of the second lev, uh, second leg of the Triple Crown at, uh, Pimlico, at the Preakness, Kelly, because of spiking a fever. Spiking a fever. Hay fever? No, a fever.
8:23
I see what you did there. I'm gonna go home. [laughs] It's fever, it's fever humor from Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Sorry. [laughs] He'll be, he'll be at Chuckles in Lubbock next week. [laughs] Oh, man. Sorry.
8:33
And at Knee Slappers in Poughkeepsie. Sorry, poor Muth. Um- Hope you feel better... 103 degrees.
8:41
Uh, roughly 12 hour- uh, 12 hours after the horse arrived at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, uh, he spiked a fever of 103 degrees, and Bob Baffert, Triple Crown-winning trainer Bob Baffert, uh, said that Muth's temperature
8:54
may, means that the camp had no choice but to scratch him. Quote, "We're sick about this." See what he did there? Sick about this. Uh-huh. "The horse had been doing really well," unquote. Oh, no, there's more.
9:03
"But we have to do what's right by the horse." Well, thank God, Bob Baffert, that you're doing right by the horse, but there you go. So Muth is out.
9:09
And so now what was already a small field, right, which the Preakness historically always is, gets even smaller. And so there you go. And so Mystic Dan's chance of winning a second leg becomes that much greater.
9:23
We did, uh, we got a tweet, uh, this morning about this. Jason Stark letting us know this news. Tagged, uh, Drew in it. Drew, uh, replied that Tuscan Gold is his runner now. Yeah.
9:33
With, uh, I'll, I'll try to do, translate the emojis. We should really do a s- Uh, oh, no, I, I, I don't know if it's the...
9:40
No, it's, it's, it's Lombardi Line, I believe, with Story that does an emoji, uh, uh, uh, segment like this. Like, I never, I never know what these things mean, right? So Drew's got fingers crossed.
9:49
I think I can understand that one. And then, then I, I, I don't know, some kind of facial expression I think he's, means he's uneasy with the pick. Hmm. So go with that if... W- w- what you will.
9:59
Emoji- W- uh, take from that what you will... emoji that- Tuscan Gold... reflects uneasiness. Right. Yeah. [laughs] Uh, I don't wanna speak for Felika.
10:04
He'll be on with us later this week, but I think he also likes Tuscan, Tuscan Gold. I don't, don't think Felika's gonna be on with us later this week. Oh, well, maybe he won't be.
10:11
It's, it's that time of year where the guests are sparse. [laughs] Would you say? Yeah, if he, uh- Yeah... if he, if he is, he's gonna be, he's gonna have an incredible live shot.
10:19
Uh, we're gonna get to JBT, and we're gonna get through, we're gonna get into the NBA here momentarily, but I just wanna say this about last night. Um,
10:26
I think with the Nuggets and T-Wolves, we are watching the NBA Finals, Kelly.
10:30
With apologies to your Mavs and everybody else's teams that they like, the Celtics, uh, whomever else, uh, we're watching the NBA Finals, and we are watching a tour de force from Nikola Jokic, who yesterday went 40, 13 and 7 with zero turnovers in a 112-97 game five win for the Nuggets over the Timberwolves, taking a three to two lead in their best of seven Western Conference semifinal series.
10:55
The real amazing part of this game, if, in case you missed it, Jokic matched up with Rudy Gobert. Rudy Gobert, who, when they play the Nuggets, he's never really on Jokic. Mm-hmm.
11:07
He was last night, and Jokic made it a point to embarrass him, just to absolutely take him to the woodshed. Uh, Gobert faced him straight up 10 times last night.
11:19
Jokic eight of nine from the field, including just shots one after the other. One better than the previous where you're like, "Oh my God." [laughs] Like, it's just incredible. And- Stat line was ridiculous...
11:31
you think any of these Joki- uh, any of these Gobert voters for Defense Player of the Year are gonna do a mea culpa? Any of them? Any of them? No. Of course not. Also, like, it's Jokic though.
11:43
I don't wanna defend, [laughs] I don't wanna de- defend Gobert, but he's amazing. DPOY can't hold you less than eight for nine? We'll talk to JBT about it next.
11:50
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12:45
You are paying attention to the tote board on this, by the way? No. ANG promo? Uh. Yeah. I, um, we got an email. That's what I mean. Okay. [laughs] The tote board. You didn't know there was a tote board?
12:56
With a full standing. [laughs] Yeah, it's a whole website. There's a tote board.
12:59
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he is the, uh, co-host of VSiN Prime Time with Tim Murray, weeknight 6:00 PM, uh, here at the network, and of course, he's our senior NBA analyst. He's Jonathan Von Tobel, everybody. At me, JVT.
13:12
Comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Jon? I'm really happy and good. How are you, Gil? I'm doing very well. Why are you so happy and good?
13:21
I don't want to make you angry after what I just heard, so that's, that's- Oh, no, no. Please, go ahead and make me angry. [laughs] Like- No, no, no, I don't want to say anything. I just... I'm great. [laughs] That's it.
13:32
Oh, I know what he's talking about.
13:34
He must be talking about what we led into the commercial with, which is that, uh, Rudy Gobert, uh, went one-on-one with Nikola Jokic yesterday, and Nikola Jokic went eight of nine, and you were talking, Kelly, off air, about Tim Bontemps, who I believe was a Gobert voter.
13:47
I don't want to misquote- I'm sure he was... yeah. I don't know. Uh, one of- Yeah. Don't worry, I'll be that guy. I'm sure he was. Well, but w- [laughs] Yeah. [laughs] That's all right. We haven't researched it.
13:54
I'm sure he was. But, but, but it sounds like what you were saying is that the immediate, the immediate thing that the Gobert voters are saying w- we'll, we'll lean on is, well, Jokic does that to everybody.
14:08
And I think the immediate reaction this morning is, "Oh my God, look at Gobert get smashed by Nikola Jokic." Yes. And I think that, I think that the reasonable response to that is Nikola Jokic destroys everybody.
14:21
Right, and then off air, then we took it to, "And if it was against Wembanyama," I said he wouldn't go eight for nine, and you're like, "Yes, he would. What evidence do we have to suggest otherwise?"
14:29
And so JVT, I think, is on your side on that. [laughs] Did we beat- So I'll be JVT. Thanks for coming, JVT. Appreciate you. No, no, no, no. Look, I, I will say this.
14:35
I, I think that this, this conversation has very much polarized a lot of people, and I think that there is a, a lot of nuance lost in both sides, for the most part, when it comes to something like this.
14:48
You know, for example, i- in the, the thought process of, like, you know, he wouldn't do that to Victor Wembanyama.
14:53
Well, in four games, he shot 62% against him and scored 55 points when they were directly matched up against each other. You know, like, the... He does do this to a lot of people.
15:02
Would some of those shots be more difficult, some of those ridiculous floaters that he was hitting over Gobert because Victor Wembanyama has more length and whatnot? Sure.
15:09
Uh, I, I think that, in general, though, if Victor Wembanyama was on that floor yesterday, I think the result is generally the same. It... Nikola Jokic is awesome. What we saw yesterday was incredible.
15:20
What we saw over the last few games from this team, Gil, you know, your, your show's a numbers game. Th- there was nothing quantifiable to that.
15:26
That was like a champion just going out there and going, "No, no, no, we're really good, and we're gonna make tough shots, and we're gonna be awesome."
15:31
And I just think that, like, you know, you can have your thoughts about Rudy Gobert or Victor Wembanyama or who should've won Defensive Player of the Year, but I think lost in all that is that Nikola Jokic is incredible.
15:40
The Nuggets are a very good team that is defending a champion, a championship, and that sometimes, much like Thanos, in, like...
15:46
You know, things are inevitable, and it looked like the Denver Nuggets were inevitable over the last three games, and s- specifically yesterday. I'm not mad. Are you mad? [laughs] That sounded very reasonable to me.
15:55
No, it sounded g- it sounded great. All right. Uh, Nikola Jokic- The MVP beat the Defensive Player of the Year. Oh, he beat him silly. Yeah. Let's not, let's not sugarcoat it. Uh, Jokic is amazing.
16:05
He's, he's unbelievable. Yes. Do you agree with me that we are watching the NBA Finals, Jon? I... You know, I think we... I, I don't know about the NBA Finals, but, like, here's the thing.
16:14
I, I'll go back to the two regular season matchups that Denver had with Boston, and I talked about this yesterday when Boston was... Or no, the, the other day, when Boston was struggling with Cleveland.
16:23
I understand that there's a lot of analytics, you know, p- folks who shape the market who are very sharp, who have Boston rated the way that they do, Gil.
16:30
What I don't understand is the blind faith that, yet again, the Celtics should do this, right? Because they should've done it last year, and they lost the way they did to the Miami Heat.
16:38
They should've done it against the, uh, Golden State Warriors when they were on the verge of going up 3-1 on their home floor. They blew that game. They lost to the Golden State Warriors.
16:45
I, like, I get the, the data, the numbers, everything that suggests that Boston is the best team in the NBA.
16:51
What I don't understand is the blind faith that a team that has consistently shot itself in the foot over and over and over again is just gonna take care of business when I'm watching them scuffle with the Cleveland Cavaliers without Donovan Mitchell in games that they should be blowing them out.
17:04
And so if you get to an NBA Finals against a team like the Denver Nuggets, who, like, well, you know, I've called them unflappable multiple times.
17:10
They show that unflappableness, uh, just over the course of multiple games, right?
17:14
The way they lose game two, and they get three days to chew on it, and the way they respond in three straight games, the way Jokic looks absolutely unstoppable, I just don't understand the blind faith that anybody would have in a, in a team like the Boston Celtics to do this.
17:28
So I kind of understand it, and I think that's the ultimate matchup we're gonna get, and I can't wait to see it.
17:33
But depending on where that price would be, I would very much find myself in the camp o- of the Nuggets if the price is right because I think that we're, we're not really...
17:40
Uh, the blind faith, they just don't really understand that the Celtics are gonna pull this off, you know? All right, let's go through these one by one. Let's go through tonight's games.
17:47
Uh, first one might not even need that much time. Celtics are 14- Yeah... and a half point favorites against the Cavs to close out Cleveland in a gentleman's sweep.
17:54
I assume you think they will close them out, but would you touch this number?
17:58
No, I think, and given the way that they've played over the last couple of games, you know, I've been actually, and I don't know if you've heard of it, Bernie Gill.
18:03
I- I've invoked your name over the last couple of days on Vs in Primetime, 'cause you and I have talked about this.
18:08
W- w- dude, the way this market reacts in game, I don't know why some of the times you bet some of these numbers, but you know- Yeah... before the game starts.
18:13
You know, for example, the other night against Cleveland, it didn't get there. But Gill, they got off to an eight to two start, Cleveland.
18:18
The- the Celtics went from a 12 and a half pre-flop favorite to just eight within- [laughs]... 60 seconds of game time. That's amazing. So, like, you know, like [laughs] That quickly?
18:26
Yeah, we were talking at the beginning of the game. Apparently I need to be watching closer. Wow. Right, yeah. Like, it wa- it was crazy.
18:30
So, you know, if you just look at something like that, and especially such a big number, if the Cavs come out and hit, like, two threes, they go up six-nothing, eight-two, whatever it is, you're gonna get a cheaper number, and I think it's a much better way to handle a big favorite like this.
18:40
That is one flexible algorithm that it would change that quickly early in a game. Wow. Uh- Yeah. All right. So then we have a game five tonight.
18:47
This series is knotted up at two apiece between the Thunder and the Mavericks. Thunder back to a four and a half point favorite here.
18:54
Yeah, so this one's more interesting, and I think that this is dependent on a certain matchup that we might see or a certain adjustment. I think that we're at the point where Mark Daigneault needs to start Casen Wallace.
19:03
And if that's the case, looking at Casen Wallace to go over his three-point attempts is something very much worth looking at. I think the Thunder become more viable as a favorite here in this matchup as well.
19:12
Because while you get a little bit smaller, Casen Wallace is an awesome defender. And what happens is now all of a sudden you can stay home. You don't have to play off guys like P.J.
19:19
Washington, who's absolutely murdered you here over the last two and a half games.
19:23
Now all of a sudden be- you as a defensive team, you've been very good, you become even better because you trust your one-on-one matchups. Wallace has been awesome on Irving. He can stay at home there.
19:32
Your guys can stay at home, and guys like P.J. Washington can test bad shooters, and things become better for you. On top of that, Luka Dončić hasn't really been that great.
19:39
So I think for me, I'm waiting for the starting lineups, and if you're gonna get Casen Wallace out there, which I think you should, I think his props become viable to go over, and I think the Thunder become more viable as a favorite here in this matchup against the Dallas Mavericks.
19:50
All right. Tomorrow we only have one game, I believe, and that is the T-Wolves and the Nuggets. Yeah. Game six back in Minnesota. Minnesota is a two-point favorite. Do you think this gets back to Denver for a game seven?
20:01
I, I wanna say yes. I, I want to say yes.
20:04
Uh, having watched [laughs] what transpired yesterday though, I mean, there is just something going on with this Nuggets team where they're really feeling it, and they've figured out so many things.
20:12
And they've understood that, like, what they need to do is ultimately just dominate from mid-range, uh, and really kill this team.
20:17
And you look at yesterday too, again, Gill, like the first two, the two games in Minnesota, this team shot f- nearly 56% on mid-range attempts. Yesterday they come out, they're 50%.
20:26
They were 10 of, I think, like, 27, something like that. Or excuse me, j- just around 37%, but that short mid-range area of the floor. Seven to 16 in the floater area, killed them at the rim.
20:34
Like, this team knows exactly what it wants to do here at this point.
20:37
So unless Anthony Edwards and this Minnesota Timberwolves team offensively is gonna figure something out, stop running screens, stop allowing him to get doubled, do something else offensively to get others involved.
20:46
If Mike Conley's gonna play, right? That's the other part too. Yes. Then I think that they can probably extend this thing out.
20:52
But if Conley's not gonna be out there, and your only offensive valve is Anthony Edwards, I think this thing ends in Minnesota. Yeah. That Conley, Conley's presence is huge. Uh- Yep...
21:00
fi- fighting off some kind of Achilles injury. Um, and thank you for invoking my name, by the way. Now I feel terrible that I scared John Al- Alno [laughs]... off air. Um, okay.
21:08
Honestly, I don't wanna, I don't wanna break the veil. I just didn't know you were capable of saying the F word. [laughs] But that's all. Yeah, that's... [laughs] All right.
21:15
And then Friday, and we might have multiple games Friday s- in, if necessary in the other series. Yeah. But we know at least that we're gonna get game six in Indiana. Pacers are favored by five.
21:24
Now, this is after a game last night. Um, and this is the th- you know, we talked about that Gobert stat. McBride, Deuce McBride- Yeah... setting 23 screens for Jalen Brunson yesterday, John.
21:36
He had never set more than eight in a game, and Jalen tickled the strings to 40 balloons last night. Yep. Uh, look, so this is, I texted, uh, Kelly. They didn't respond 'cause they were too cool for me.
21:46
Uh, I took New York plus five and a half here. I, I think that this is... The, the fact that you get two days off is such a godsend after winning that game.
21:53
You saw the gap between these two teams when this team was somewhat rested. Now you're gonna get two days off to get healthy and ready.
21:58
OG Anunoby status regardless, I think this Knicks team's gonna be primed and ready to go after two days of rest, something they haven't had in a while, to go on the road and get a big win here.
22:06
Probably should've won game three the way that that thing went down. You let that thing go. But I, I really believe in New York here in this spot after two days off.
22:12
I think they're gonna go out there, potentially win this thing outright.
22:15
Any team that's down three-two now, do you feel like i- i- if it's the Pacers or the, the Timberwolves, um, that you feel could come back, either of those two teams? Tim- Timberwolves are the easy answer there, right?
22:26
I think that's probably about it. I don't really b- have much faith in the Pacers. Yeah.
22:29
Though I've said, you know, obviously the Warriors, most beautiful thing in sports, but man, the Nuggets are right up there with Jokic. It is just gorgeous to watch. JVT, thank you as always. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
22:39
@meJVT, Jonathan Vontobel, everybody. Uh, Vs in Primetime, weeknights, uh, right here at the network. We'll come back. Will Hill, all his bets next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VsiN, the sports betting network.
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23:50
We should just have... We should just invent bits so we can have Ryan do voiceovers. Yeah. Yeah. It's, uh... No, I don't even know voiceovers. I need him to, like, host a game show segment or something like this.
24:01
[laughs] That's true. We could have him do that. All I did was text you last night. I'm like, "We gotta incorporate Ryan Hunter into the show somehow." Right. I don't know how, but I'm gonna come up with a way.
24:08
He's somewhere listening going like, "I don't wanna be a game show host." Yeah, probably, yeah. [laughs] Uh, we get tweets at Bet the Book. JasonH11, "As long as Kelly is headlining at Chuckles and not, uh-"
24:18
Somewhere else he said, which I'm not gonna repeat. Uh, [laughs] Bet- Betting Man Todd- That you won't repeat? All right. [laughs] Well, yeah, yeah, you know. I won't be shaking it on a stage anytime soon.
24:29
Betting Man Todd said, uh, "Sorry to break it to you, Gil, but Chuckles closed in Lubbock years ago." [laughs] Oh, dear. Ian McDonald, this is great, "Kelly's defense of Gobert was better than Gobert's defense of Joker."
24:40
[laughs] Thank you, I appreciate that. Uh- But the, the other comical stat line of that game though is, is wasn't Gobert perfect from the field? He was like at 18 points. It was seven for seven.
24:52
It was, like, his best offensive game in like [laughs] two months. And I get back to the very thing I opened the week with which is think about the thin line of all of this.
25:00
If the Timberwolves had capitalized on that two to nothing lead- Yep, yep... and won this series, the narrative would have [coughs] to some degree justifiably gone to
25:12
the T-Wolves trade for Gobert if they then win the championship is justified, as bad as it was. I am w- I am with you, at least from a betting standpoint, that these would be the two teams.
25:24
No mat- Even if they, uh, even if the Timberwolves end up going down four to, four-two, um, like, these are the two teams I would have the most confidence in g- winning the NBA final.
25:34
I'm so glad when I, when I brought that up the other day, I'm so glad you, you, im- you overrode your Mavericks thing when I said, "If the, if the T-Wolves did win this, would they be the, the de facto favorite?"
25:44
You're like, "100%." Yeah, I mean- Yeah... I, [laughs] Gil, I got tickets on the Mavericks. [laughs] I know. I thought from the beginning Thunder were probably gonna beat them this series.
25:51
I think it's a good bet tonight. Uh, Brandon Webb, not that Brandon Webb, but a different one, "Of course the voters don't regret their decision after Jokic's performance last night. They weren't watching."
25:59
[laughs] Uh, Jaime Leyva, uh, "With the hay fever drop, I think I heard a rim shot after that. I am here for this level of comedy. Why the long face, Gil?" Glad to have you back.
26:08
[laughs] Have a, have a great day, gentlemen. Uh, Ed Hamilton. Uh, Ed Hamilton, I, and without punctuation I don't understand what you're saying, but I, I, I think- Guess he just got limited, uh, home loan...
26:18
I guess he got limited on everybody but Scheffler. Yeah. So he's a little confused about it, yeah. Uh, we'll get back to some of your, uh, some tweets. I always appreciate it. Best listeners in the game.
26:26
Always appreciate the feedback. By the way, one last thing before we get to Will. Did you catch that thing at the end? Reggie Miller was great. He pointed this...
26:32
By the way, I thought Draymond Green was great, uh, inside the NBA last night with Darnest Johnson. Yeah. I thought he was great. I think he's fake, but yeah. Well, yeah, clearly he's somewhat fake.
26:42
I mean, like, the guy wants to talk trash about the media all the time, and then gets up there on that desk and it's like- Well-... "Hey, fellas, happy to be here." Well, well he's new media. [laughs] Remember?
26:50
He's the guy. But I thought it was great in pointing out the fact that Nemhardt was getting toasted by Brunson. Yep. And certainly by the fact that, that Jokic was getting toasted by, uh...
27:00
Excuse me, that Gobert was getting toasted by Jokic. But, and he put, you know, numbers to it. But that move by KCP at the end, did you see that?
27:08
When the Nuggets, they did that whole thing at the end where they were just running out the clock, the game was over. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
27:13
And so that he doesn't get nailed with the turnover by holding the ball last, KCP got the ball from him right before the shot clock ran out. I thought that was- That is great, yeah. [laughs] That's great...
27:22
Nuggets stay with zero turnovers so you only get 200. The, the Nuggets have been utilizing too, uh, even just besides that, uh, the, the whole roll the ball up, uh, take some time off the game clock situation.
27:31
They've been doing that a lot this series. Re- Re- Reggie Miller pointed that out as well. Yeah. I thought it was great.
27:35
That was one of these things, what Kelly's referring to is Nuggets have the lead, there was about four plus minutes left, clock is running, Jokic taking his sweet time inbounding the ball.
27:46
About four seconds ran off the clock. Yeah. Like, it was a significant amount. Um, but it's loopholes in the rules.
27:52
One of those they've been doing, like, every game, but you don't, you don't notice that much if you're watching at home, right? Right. It's an inbounds play. Like, they're about to go up the court, who cares?
27:59
We, we talk about it in the NFL in Guessing Lines every week, but in the NBA we don't- Yeah... necessarily get a chance to do that. Yeah. Will Hill is here, everybody. He joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
28:07
You can follow him on Twitter at NotBeWillHill. He is the host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast. Also one of the Bear Bets Pod guys over there at Fox Sports with Chris Fallica. How you doing, Will? Gilly, what's going on?
28:18
Kelly, how, how's it going? I'm, uh, I'm good. I'm a little tired. You know, we, uh, we all get on Major League Baseball for their scheduling mishaps, but th- that was the biggest game to date of the season in the NBA.
28:29
You know, game five, Timberwolves, Nuggets. To tip it off at, uh, quarter to 11. Yeah. Not ideal, uh, if you're in the East Coast, but, uh, got through it. It's, uh...
28:37
Boy, I, I am looking forward to the conference finals and the finals when you get a little bit more reasonable tip times.
28:41
It, it's cool to have games on all the time, but you know, it's tough when it's a game that you have to watch, you feel like you have to stay up for. But man, 10:45 tip-off is, uh, is a tough one. All right.
28:49
Can I ask an ignorant question? Was that partially because of the Indiana Fev- Fever having their debut in the WNBA? 'Cause remember, that was 7:30 Eastern.
29:00
So you got a half hour of that game before the Knicks game tipped off at 8:00 PM Eastern. Which was a l- which was a late start, which then beget the later start for the Nuggets and the T-Wolves, still later.
29:13
I, I don't think that one had anything to do... I think that's just a Madison Square Garden, they wanted that later. It more in pri- more in prime time for the game there.
29:20
It's the- But, but the Knicks haven't been starting at 8:00 PM Eastern this sa- this postseason. No, not the whole time. They're, these are all, they're all, like, random, right? They go from 4:35- Oh... 4:35 overtime.
29:28
All right. I mean, they are move [laughs] they did move that game, though. You're getting an extra day now of, uh, N- Knicks-Pacers on Friday because of Caitlin Clark tonight. You know, when I- Or Thursday night...
29:39
you know, when I was a kid, Will, uh, we watched the NBA finals on tape delay on the East Coast. Not sure if you're aware of that. I've heard. I've heard, yeah.
29:46
I mean, look, it's, uh, it, it, it is, it is a little bit late. I'm not sure if that's the reason why, but yeah, definitely a tough one. But, um, excited.
29:54
I'm curious, you know, before we get to these games, if you had to make an over under right now, how many game sevens you get? What, what do you think is a fair number?
30:00
Game sevens in this round or the rest of the postseason? Yeah, no, in this round. Uh, good question. I am going to say that the number is, uh- A half? One and a half is the number you would have to make. One and a half.
30:15
Yeah, I think OKC-Dallas probably goes seven And then, you know, coin flip that you get one more. I mean, the Pacers are favored to go seven, so, uh, I don't know.
30:24
But it'd, it'd be fun to get some because we only had that one in the first round, and it was really kind of a fake game seven where nobody was into it, nobody cared. [laughs] Early Sunday afternoon. That's right.
30:31
Uh, Magic-Cavs on, uh, what was it? That Sunday a couple weeks ago. Yeah. So it'd be fun to get a couple of them. Which ones do you think? So clarify that. Wh- which ones do you think go seven, then?
30:41
I do think OKC and Dallas go seven. I, I know the Pacers are what? Five, five and a half point favorites. I just have a feeling the Knicks beat them. I definitely like the Knicks plus the points.
30:51
I just think that's a lot of points with a, a team that's the better team. And the Pacers, some of their stuff on defense, their rotations, uh, they just give up layup after layup.
30:59
I, I have a feeling the Knicks, with a couple more days' rest, it, it was helpful to, you know, even rest the end of the fourth quarter yesterday. They certainly looked...
31:06
Or on, uh, on Sunday, they looked rejuvenated yesterday. I, I think the Knicks come out for blood, what is it, Friday for, uh, for game six here? Yeah. I think the Knicks close them out here. Knicks close them out.
31:17
Um, you agree that we're wa- I mean, I'll say it one more time. But NBA Finals, this is that with between the T-Wolves and the Nuggets? I would pick the, uh, I mean, I would definitely pick the Nuggets over the Celtics.
31:29
Uh, be 50/50 between T-Wolves over the Celtics. So I agree with your sentiment, but I, I wouldn't be as emphatic as you are, where there's, like, no chance the Celtics would beat the T-Wolves.
31:38
I don't think the T-Wolves are getting out of the series. Um, it, it'll be interesting to see what the line is. I still think Boston would probably be favored over Denver just because they do have home court.
31:47
Remember, they played not that, uh, you know, late or, or pretty late into the season. I think it was early March. And Boston was, like, a one-point favorite even in Denver. That's not that long ago.
31:58
Uh, so I think Boston will probably be a slight favorite. You'll probably see Denver get bet and get money, but I do think Boston will be the favorite.
32:04
You yourself say it all the time, though, the, the, the difference between the regular season and the post-season- Yeah... in the NBA is, like, you know, it's two different things.
32:10
Like, how many times do we have to watch the Celtics be mediocre? And I know they've only lost two games, but i- they're games that are reminders of just how fragile they are in terms of in-game strategy or lack thereof.
32:25
I actually think if the, if it is the Knicks and the Celtics, I have a feeling that is a long series, man. Really. They gotta get OJ back. I mean, that w- Yeah, they would need Anunoby.
32:36
And look, some of the guys, this ma- actually makes Thibodeau look bad in a way.
32:38
Some of the guys that he's been banishing, that he's been so afraid to play for even three, four, five minutes, Burks, uh, Achuwa, McBride, like, those guys looked pretty good.
32:46
It's like, man, you couldn't have stuck these guys [laughs] on the court for four or five minutes at some point earlier in the series before your whole team got run into the ground?
32:53
Very strange how he's managed the minutes. You making a play tonight, either of these games? I like OKC. I feel like Dallas let the, the series slip through their fingers the other night. What?
33:02
Nine of 19 from the foul line in the second half. Luka doesn't look 100%. I just felt like he gave OKC a lifeline. I don't think OKC was winning three in a row.
33:10
Now with two out of three in OKC, which is a good home court, I, I figure OKC figures out a way to win two out of these. So it'd probably take seven, but I do think OKC wins the series.
33:18
All right, and your NBA Finals right now is? Nuggets-Celtics. Yeah. Back, back to where we started, yeah. Yeah. I think that's, I think that's everybody's, uh, safe answer, and I think that's the correct answer.
33:29
We'll come back, more with Will Hill. Get all his, uh, baseball thoughts, all his baseball bets, see what else he's betting, including perhaps the PGA, maybe the WNBA. He's all over the place. That's next.
33:38
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:54
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34:12
Uh, [laughs] for those who missed it, I'm sure Steve Fezzik didn't miss it, by the way, 'cause Steve Fezzik is a, uh, a movie buff- Mm-hmm... and specifically a Fast Times at Ridgemont High movie buff.
34:21
But as Jason was, uh, leaving us this last segment, [laughs] he threw out, I don't think he quoted Spicoli perfect, uh, perfectly. Yeah, close enough. But close enough. Was this...
34:31
And so it was the surfer's dream, for those who are familiar with the movie Fast Times at Ridgemont High.
34:35
Jeff Spicoli had a dream at some point which featured Stu Nahan, right, like [laughs] and, and girls, uh, where he, uh, was to- Wins a big competition. He's, uh, yeah, having a dream... having a dream.
34:46
He won some surf competition, right. It was the same one where he's like, "All I need are some tasty waves, cool..." No. [laughs] This is, uh- It's the way of looking at that wave and say, "Hey, let's party, bro."
34:56
[laughs] But he says in the, uh, in that interview, in the dream interview, he says, "Me and Mick are gonna wing on over to London and jam with the Stones." And so that's what, uh, Jason [laughs] was referencing.
35:06
He said it on his way out. I was like, "What's that from again?" What's that from? Fast Times? I was like, "I have a good line. I don't know what it was." Uh, we get texts, we get tweets.
35:12
Speaking of texts, we did get one from, uh, Steve Fezzik earlier. [laughs] "There's no birthday party in here." [laughs] Steve- That movie's so good. I haven't seen it in so long...
35:20
Steve Fezzik, "Gobear started the COVID epidemic. I blame him for all the world's problems." That's from Steve Fezzik. Um, Michael Monosano, "We will all now hear from the apologists for Gobear and excuses for him, lol.
35:33
But it's Joker he's guarding, lol." Oh yeah, you missed that part of the show. Like, that was earlier. Lou Fenicaro, Sweet Lou, Gamblu, "Scotty Scheffler round one score 69 and a half over plus 110."
35:45
Lou said he took a big Italian bite of it. You like that? Okay. Over 69 and a half. Do I like it? Yeah. First round, um, I haven't done exa- dug in exactly into weather yet. I haven't done my first round leader bets yet.
36:01
So I mean, I don't know. It's, it's hard for me to say over on anything, Scotty. But Lou, I hope you win your bet. Phil Weiss, we get- Not betting on or against him... we get tweets at Beat the Book.
36:08
Phil Weiss, "If JVT had as much on Wemby DPOY as we did, he would've been crying like a two-year-old." [laughs] That's the always lovely Phil Weiss. Just to follow VSiN.
36:18
Oh, he's talking about, uh, Will Hill and on, like, comment about His name of his podcast.
36:22
Just To Follow Vesin said, "Perhaps I'd have more in my account based on the results had I increased the amount of my wager in previous action." That was the original name, and then we switched to Shoulda Bet More. Oh.
36:31
[laughs] Yeah. Brian Schaefer, yes you did, Brian. He said- What a terrible podcast [laughs] that would be. You missed the whole joke earlier, that's why. No, I know. I got it earlier. [laughs] Oh. All right.
36:40
Brian Schaefer, "Uh, Gil, I predicted the Phillies." Yes, you did, Brian Schaefer. He said, "Gil, I predicted the Phillies to have most wins in the months of March, April. Now, here is my May prediction."
36:50
Well, you don't get to make the May prediction on May 15th. That's not how this works. Uh, but he says, "The Yankees and their favorable future schedule, but I'm rooting for the Guardians." Well, thank you for that.
37:01
Guardians are in, uh, sixth place right now, in the month of May. Sixth place. Trust the Glove, "If you do not know, raising children is like being, uh, pecked to death by a duck, Kelly," he says.
37:16
"Not performance enhancing. Love, my kids." [laughs] I mean, I wasn't gonna say it, but...
37:22
[laughs] Kelly, we, we've already decided earlier on in the show that Kelly's gonna have kids and see if it improves his job performance. [laughs] Uh, Brian- Just as an experiment. [laughs] Just an experiment.
37:31
Just as an experiment. I don't think that's responsible. He'll give them to Gil afterward. [laughs] Happily take them.
37:37
Uh, Brian M., "Valhalla was named, uh, after some guy drank too much bourbon, wandered into a field and had a conversation. Uh, Odin, who told him- [laughs]... 'If you build it, they will come.'" Best listeners ever.
37:49
Oh, man. Jason H11, "Last I saw, the weather is coming Friday afternoon. Scotty being late Thursday, early Friday makes me think the latest I'd bet him would be early during his Friday round." Hmm. There you go. Yeah.
38:03
Some actionable weather information of Valhalla. Chance Copperpot, "How dare you call me out for betting the Marlins every game. [laughs] I'm not betting on them, but I'm betting them.
38:13
Seen a lot of Marlins baseball this season. They are atrocious, holding my worst record plus 450 ticket." Yeah, plus 450 is where he got that. 30 to one on our Angels. Kelly, you excited? Yeah.
38:26
It's hard to get excited midnight. Uh, well, no, like it, it is. Yeah. Yeah. That's where, like I don't know if you caught it in my eyes, but I, uh, was shocked to hear they were as bad as they were.
38:34
[laughs] Kelly was like, "Really? We're alive?" 'Cause I haven't exact- Yeah, it's May, so sorry, I haven't been tracking this day by day. Uh, but yeah, I, hey, I like our position of where we're at.
38:44
Me and Mick are gonna wing it over to London and jam with The Stones. Such a good way of saying that. By the way, Rolling Stones actually not playing in London, uh, for those scoring at home.
38:51
All right, uh, let's review the, uh, the bets then first of all on the baloncesto tonight. Yeah. Do you have anything? Um, okay. Tonight I did, uh, make a bet. Tailor it to your, uh, own will. Kyrie Irving.
39:07
Oh, let's talk... Can we talk about Kyrie for a sec? Yeah, we can. We can, Gil. What had happened? Uh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
39:12
I mean, like, okay, at the beginning of the series you would b- you would've said, "Okay, he's, he's molded in well into the facilitator role. This is gonna work." And at times- Yes...
39:21
it's looked like that, but- What a mature chapter of his career kind of thing. E- exactly. But now, when you're staring at 2-2, going back to Oklahoma City, and now...
39:32
I mean, game four, we're all wondering, "Well, where, where's Kyrie?" And Luc- and Luca's not 100%. He's, he's dealing with seven different injuries. Yeah. Like, I understand he's still gonna be extremely ball dominant.
39:41
That's gonna happen. I, I, I find it hard to believe that one of these last couple games Kyrie Irving is going to go... Like, the Mavs are gonna go down without Kyrie Irving trying to put up a bunch of shots.
39:53
So I played 25 plus. You're getting almost two to one on that right now, which is kind of silly for just, you know, Kyrie Irving point props. So I played that small tonight. Nothing big.
40:01
If I did not have Mavericks f- I'll just be rooting on my Mavericks. I keep saying that, said it before the series though, I thought there was a little value [laughs] on the O- on the Thunder.
40:09
I think there's val- value almost game to game on the Thunder. I think if you're looking to bet the Thunder, bet it now. Um, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this gets out to five tonight.
40:18
The way we've seen Thunder money come in late these past couple games, uh, I'm s- I'm thinking it's going to hit five. So, uh, that's what I would say in that one.
40:26
And then I've got, I've got Celtics, uh, in five, so I just hope they take care of business.
40:31
By the way, as you were speaking, the Celtics line, like people cannot stop betting the Celtics, went from 15 and a half to 16 back to 15 and a half while you were speaking. So what was that?
40:39
Was it yesterday on the air where we were like, "Whoa, 15 and a half"? Yeah. So that came down a bit. It was like 14, 14 and a half this morning.
40:47
About 30 minutes ago, Donovan Mitchell got downgraded to doubtful, which I don't know if that should be that big of a surprise. But we went from 14 and a half back up to 15, 15 and a half in that game now.
40:59
Probably more notably, I don't know if everybody caught this, Kelly, is Levert questionable [laughs] for this game tonight too? Yeah, in addition. So like, I mean, I don't- The Celtics have had...
41:07
I, and I know Samich says the poor Zingas is hurt, but the Celtics have caught every possible break. It's incredible. Yeah.
41:13
Yeah, I, I mean, we, we've been saying all year, I mean, the East wasn't any- but not nearly as strong as the West, but I mean, what? Br- I mean b- even, even if the Knicks advance, you're talking...
41:24
But this is not the Knicks squad- No... some of us were excited about. And it's not, it's not fair to judge them like they were, 'cause they're not the same team.
41:31
We will never know what a Butler heat team could have done- Sure... to the Celtics. Yeah, honest. They won one game without him. Uh, and I, I have this...
41:39
And there's no way I can prove this, but this Cavaliers team, I have a feeling they would've won at least another game, if not two.
41:45
Like, I think people were way underestimating just how much Donovan Mitchell could mess with the Celtics. There, there was a large chunk of the season. Yeah.
41:53
This is where I know a lot, a lot of, a lot of people don't check in the NBA basically [laughs] till we hit the playoffs. I get it. Yeah.
41:58
There was a large chunk of the regular season where the Cleveland Cavaliers were a top, uh, they were a top five offensive and defensive team and one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. So repeat again.
42:08
So you're over Kyrie points? I'm over Kyrie p- points. That's all I played tonight. Um, I would lean Thunder side though, uh, Cavs, Celtics. I, I don't know what to tell you. Yeah.
42:18
I mean, I, under nothing probably, but I wouldn't, I wouldn't be touching this. This is tomorrow night, but do you think the Nuggets and T-Wolves extends to seven? I think the Nuggets take care of business.
42:30
I, I think J- what JBT said was right, which is you wanna say seven, but, like, the Nuggets are on some stuff right now. They're on, they're on, they're... Yeah. Yeah.
42:37
Where, where, where the Knicks were on something earlier- Yeah... the Nuggets feel like that right now. And I, and, you know, go, or go... It's three games in a row. Three games in a row.
42:46
They're shooting over 50% from the field. Like, the shot making has just been incredible, and I'm not saying, like, it's, it's, it's Nikola Jokic, it's, it's, it's Jamal Mur- There are great players on this team.
42:57
So much like we talk about three-point shooting percentages and how those can be extremely, uh, volatile, and we, we see those come down or go up, it, uh, I... Like, Nikola Jokic, what you saw last night was incredible.
43:09
Incredible. It's Nikola Jokic, though. Like, I'm not gonna put it past the guy to be able to put up those types of games. Um, I would love to see this go seven. I, I, I don't know what to think, though. I did bet.
43:20
The only other thing I bet was I bet under immediately last night in Knicks-Pacers, uh, game six. Uh, the whole game six. Game six, game seven, you almost al- What number did you get? I, I betted 217 and a half. No, 217?
43:32
217 and a half. 216 right now. Opened 218 and a half. Yeah. So yeah, under money coming in quick. If you wanna get on that, I'd get, I'd get it on, like, on that quick. Under...
43:41
And I would, I would lean with those guys on the, on the Knicks, but I'm not r- I'm... I, I still have a little Knicks series exposure, so I'm just gonna let that roll. I'm not running.
43:49
All right, long shots on in five minutes. That's right. Long shots coming up with- Gonna change into my clothes from yesterday- That's it... and run over to Circuit real quick. [laughs] He's about to do it.
43:56
Kelly, Wes, and Matt gonna do that. Uh, I'm on Taylor Fritz in tennis coming up a little later. Kelly and the guys will tell you all about their golf plays. Again, for Valhalla coming up here in five minutes.
44:06
And then tonight, don't forget once again, our schedule special. Mm-hmm. Tonight, NFL schedule release day. Um, both Vis and Prime Time, and of course, special edition of The Handle. Wow, Matt Brown doing double duty.
44:19
He's working a lot. Better be getting overtime. Overtime. [laughs] Uh, we're going to London, hang out with the Stones. Done all we can do. GoJoe and Goliker next. Kelly's gonna sprint. Go. Best bets.
A Numbers Game
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