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May 19, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | May 19, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | May 19, 2025
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36:35
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. That's Kelly Billin over there, ladies and gentlemen.
0:20
Right beside me. Hello. How you doing? Doing great. Good. How about you? I was asking the people, but yeah, you. You good? Well, they can't answer you. I can answer you. That's, that's very true.
0:28
You speak on behalf of the- Have everybody yell back into your car how you're doing. [laughs] I, well, I would hope people would. What do you think, I'm just talking at the, at the air here? I'm talking to the wind? Uh.
0:38
Uh, Wes Reynolds on the show today, co-host of The Long Shots. You heard of The Long Shots, Kelly? I've heard about it, yeah. Good golf podcast. You should really- Decent...
0:43
you should really try to get on there sometimes.
0:45
Uh, Jake Hahn talking hockey with us, Paul Sporar, Major League Baseball, Carl Sack gonna join us this morning, talk basketball as well, uh, the National Basketball Association.
0:53
We will do, uh, and the, oh, oh, bitter MLB May most wins update. That's not a pretty update coming up. Um, and we'll may- maybe we'll even sneak in some French Open futures if we have some time as well.
1:04
Um, let us start with just the weekend in general, which I don't know, I don't know how you feel, but I feel like we crashed into summer this weekend.
1:13
Like, I feel like we went from all this kind of activity is happening, and this usually happens when you get to the conference semifinals in both the NBA and the NHL, but I feel like the nature of the games this weekend just drove it home even further, like, into the sports netherworld depression.
1:27
Mm. And yes, we will have the French Open in tennis, and we'll have the US Open in golf, but you get it.
1:31
It's the sort of, it's the sort of lull in the c- in the sports calendar storm that, that, uh, comes to us at this time of year. But it was the nature of the games this weekend, right?
1:40
It was the, the, the s- game six between the Celtics and the Knicks. If gambling didn't exist, exist, if sports betting didn't exist, virtually nothing was watchable this weekend, right? Knicks crushed the Celtics.
1:55
Congratulations to those who had, uh, Knicks futures, right? Uh, or Knicks series bets, I should say, in that series. Knicks g- beat the, uh, the Tatum-less Celtics.
2:04
They do so, uh, in a game where they led by 27 at the half, 35 after three, led by as many as 41, and the final score was a 38-point margin.
2:14
Uh, the other NBA game yesterday, game seven, I know it was a good outcome for you and your OKC futures. OKC, after trailing early to the Nuggets by 11, 21 to 10.
2:26
That was the high water mark for the Nuggets, because after that, it was a 19 to five run for OKC. They took the lead. They ended up extending the lead to 14 by the half. They ended up leading by 25 after three.
2:38
They'd lead by as many as 43 in a 32-point win in the end, 'cause the Nuggets scored the last, like, what, nine points of the game or something like that. Yeah.
2:45
Just crazy how many of those games in that series the e- that end of the second quarter ended up mattering so much. Yeah. Like, that was- Flurries. Flurries... just flurries. Ray Leonard against Marvin Hagler.
2:56
That's what it was. Um, so those two games, virtually unwatchable. We have our conference semifinal set. We'll talk about that moment, uh, in moments.
3:03
The hockey game last night, game seven between the Leafs and the Panthers. My God, Leafs fans. We'll talk to Jake about this later. Sorry. Oh. It's rough.
3:12
[laughs] They were up two to nothing in this series, and we forget they were up three to one. The score was three to one in game three. Yeah. Toronto was up.
3:23
And the Leafs, once again, failed to make the conference finals. They haven't been to a conference final since 2002. Haven't won the Cup famously since '67, but they haven't been to a conference final since 2002.
3:37
And, uh, Austin Matthews calling teammates passengers yesterday. Oh, that's brutal. Passengers? Brutal. What, what does, what does that mean? I didn't catch that.
3:46
That means too many- What- He said too many of his teammates were passengers. Like, he's the captain leading the ship? Well, basically, that they were just standing by, standers by.
3:56
That is a brutal- [laughs] That's about as brutal of a line as you can drop And they end up losing six to one yesterday. That game was kind of unwatchable after the Panthers- Yeah... took the three to nothing lead.
4:05
You thought for a moment there in the third period when Domi scored three to one, maybe this is something, and that was quickly snuffed out.
4:11
Uh, the, the PGA Championship yesterday also kind of ended up being unwatchable down the stretch.
4:16
Though there was a moment yesterday in round four, I thought, I thought it was just gonna be a, a walk in the park all day, a walk on the course literally. Just a long walk for, uh, for Scottie Scheffler.
4:26
But it got dicey there in the middle when Jon Rahm caught him. They were tied, and in that stretch of holes, what Rahm, uh, I'll get the holes wrong.
4:35
But Rahm, remember that long putt that he lipped out where you're like, "Oh my God," it, people were like, "Rahm's winning this." Mm-hmm.
4:42
Was it Jason who tweeted out, "J- Jon Rahm is winning this tournament," right as he tweeted that. It all went to hell for, for Rahm. So he lipped out that long putt. I wanna say that was on 12. Don't hold me to that.
4:55
Or maybe 13. But then remember, like, there was two straight holes after. It's almost like that unraveled him, 'cause the next two holes he had horrific putts, horrific putts.
5:04
Yeah, he was- And then it just got terrible from there, even worse from there. Yeah, what, what was it? Three, three s- three or four straight where he had birdie or par looks that needed to ma- needed to go.
5:14
Looked like he had good looks. I mean, he pars the par five 15th, where he got a birdie there, and then it's bogey 16, double on 17, double on 18. Tournament's over. Yeah. He ended up seven back.
5:24
S- Scheffler ends up winning the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, uh, the second major of the year. He ends up winning it, his third of his career.
5:31
Remember, he won the two green jackets, and now he's won a PGA Championship. He ends up winning it by five strokes over Harris English, Bryson DeChambeau, and Davis Riley. The three of them finish at a, uh-...
5:40
tied for second. So, and Scheffler, by the way, with some rare emotion after that. Yeah. Where he was just going nuts. I, I think, uh, you know, I think a little bit of that comes, goes back to Thursday, Gil.
5:50
I, I, I think this was a, this was a, w- it was a wild tournament. Like, it did get boring, but, like, at the end, right?
5:56
And I think we thought, I think a lot of us probably thought heading into Sunday, the entirety of Sunday could be boring with a three-shot lead for Scottie Scheffler.
6:03
Like, hats off to Jon Rahm for even making it- Oh, yeah... interesting, right?
6:06
Like, it- Oh, I, that was one of those moments in the middle of the day where I was like, "Oh, I probably should really start locking into this." Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like, it got way tighter.
6:12
I mean, you had DeChambeau in the mix on Saturday. It looked, I mean, at one point he had a one-shot lead on Saturday. Uh, it looked like he was gonna be there, but he fell off.
6:19
But I, you know, I think, I, you know, Scheffler after was one of the guys that was very outspoken about, uh, n- lift, clean and place rules not being utilized on Thursday, and how mud, mud balls were affecting his game, uh, as much as they did on Thursday.
6:32
And we had a wild leaderboard after the first round, and we saw that kind of just slowly get corrected as the rounds go, go, went on.
6:40
And, um, you know, it ends up being the big dogs that were, uh, that were there at the end. Yeah. And, uh, there is Justin Ray Golf always tweeting great things about golf.
6:48
Justin Ray, 15 PGA Tour wins now for Scottie, including three majors before the age of 29.
6:54
Since World War II, the only three names that have accomplished that, the only three people, Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, Scottie Scheffler.
7:03
Every, every time I see 29 for his age still, he's like the, he's the oldest looking and acting 29-year-old on the face of the earth. Oh, you're absolutely right. [laughs] Absolutely right. More acting than looking.
7:15
He doesn't even look that old, but, like- [laughs]... what does he look? Mid-30s, but he acts like he's 48 years old. I'm, I'm trying to think about this. 15 PGA Tour wins, including three majors before the age of 29.
7:25
It's only Jack, Tiger, and Scottie. Am I surprised by that? The, I guess the 15 tour wins is the thing. Th- that's, i- it's even, that's actually the- Yeah... more impressive part to me.
7:36
That's the more impressive thing, yeah.
7:38
'Cause we've seen, I think, good examples, right, of Spieth, Rory, Scheffler, Ri- like, we've seen guys that get on heaters over a few years, right, and pick up a couple major wins.
7:47
This is like we, I'm not trying to diminish a major win, but it is, like, 15 y- 15 wins on the PGA Tour is hard to rack up in your 20s. But you understand my point, though.
7:55
So it was between, of the final round of the PGA, game seven in hockey last night, the two basketball games, the most awesome sporting event of the weekend, it was the Preakness. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, it was. It was.
8:05
That was an unbelievable run by Journalism down the stretch. That was incredible. I was sitting in a race book watching it, and they didn't have the audio on. So I, I was sitting there, I'm like, "Who won?"
8:17
Like, for like two minutes after. [laughs] I'm like, "Who won?" It was incredible. And it was the, it was the track feed, so not the- Yeah... NBC feed.
8:24
So, like, you know, like, NBC, I'm sure the cameras were do- were in on Journalism right away. I'm like, I'm watching the track feed. I'm like, "I have no idea who won this race." Yeah.
8:32
A- a- even, even with the, uh, even with the track announcer, he, he was so ho-hum about it at the end. Like, "Journalism w- I mean, h- you know, he, Journalism wins." I was like, "Did he? I guess he did." Yeah.
8:42
'Cause you probably don't wanna go all in if you're not sure, right? [laughs] Well, there was also, there was always, like, was there a, was there a bumping issue? Yeah. Was there some interference issue?
8:49
That was an incredible run. Um- I thought he was toast with that. When he got, like, boxed in by those two horses, I was like, "Well, he's not gonna get there now."
8:56
This is, this is though, from a betting standpoint, if I may just vent for a second, this has been my, this is my- Oh, please, go ahead... late, my latest theme of o- this, this stretch of time.
9:05
And by the way, doing great in these contests, both bankies in baseball and, and the NBA challenge. But, uh, here's, here's the story of my life these days. I had Scottie for low round on the second round on Friday.
9:17
He didn't win that. Didn't bet him on Saturday, low round. Third round, he did win that. Baseball famously had the Mets race to 10. Didn't win that. They won March, April. Didn't have him in that.
9:27
Had the Twins March, April. They didn't win that. They're leading, they're leading May. Um, what's another? Oh, the other one. What's the other one I'm talking about? Oh, j- and then there's Journalism, right?
9:36
Journalism, all these other horse races, I always bet just one horse to win it, right? Yeah. This is the one where I decided- [laughs]...
9:42
not only am I gonna do that, I'm also gonna bet an exactor, so I just, like, gave the money back on that. Well, at least you bet it. I didn't even bet it to win. Oh, no, I bet. But still, what's the difference?
9:49
I had, I had four different trifectas and all that stuff going, and nope. [laughs] So I am, I am either, how can I put this?
9:55
[laughs] Ahead of my time, if you wanna spin it, spin it beautifully in all these sports, or just an idiot.
10:01
I don't know, I don't know what we call this, but everybody who bets regularly gets into that groove at some point- This is a, this is a-... and it is frustrating as hell...
10:09
pretty strong groove of them in, across multiple sports. It's like I can't, I just can't get the timing down.
10:13
Because that's, that's, it's the part you just brought up that's always the, it's the difficult mental part, right? Where you're like, "I can't t- am I ahead of things? Am I behind things?" [laughs] That's right.
10:21
"What is going on here?" All right. Uh, and then explain one thing, and we'll get to your, your thoughts on these, uh, on these lines here in these basketball games. But explain one other thing to me.
10:29
Why is it that both in the NBA and the NHL, the team that played last that is still alive, so OKC in the NBA- Yeah... and the Florida Panthers, you know where I'm going with this. Yeah.
10:38
[laughs] And the Florida Panthers in the NHL are both playing first. I have no idea, Gil. And especially w- it's not even just first. It's two days after they just completed- Right... a series.
10:50
Where the teams that have been resting get to rest even more. I don't, I cannot even guess. 'Cause, 'cause they don't have conference semifinals stuck in dates that w- like they do with the finals.
10:57
Uh- So I don't, I don't know what- Conference semis or conference finals dates? No, I'm talking they, they don't have conference finals dates set the same way as they do the league finals. Correct. Correct.
11:06
I'm assuming it has something to do with the, uh, with the, with the networks. I'm assuming it's that, but I don't know. Oh, that sounds kind of shafty, if you know what I mean. Yeah. Yeah.
11:15
I, I mean, it's, I, I was thinking that already about the, about the Thunder as I'm, like, doing some prep work yesterday on the NBA, but then that hockey game finishes. I'm like, "Hockey too? Are you serious?"
11:24
[laughs] I thought the same thing. I was like, "What are we doing?" All right. Uh, we'll get our thoughts on, uh, game ones in both of the NBA games.
11:30
OKC installed as a seven-and-a-half point favorite against the T-Wolves. Knicks installed as a four-point favorite. We'll look at series lines as well. And again, hockey with Jake Hahn, C- uh, Carl Sack on the NBA.
11:42
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13:23
Skill Alexander, Kelly Bilat alongside. Let's talk a little baseball, beyond May wins, with our buddy Paul Sporer from FanGraphs. Eh, maybe in a minute. Oh, maybe in a minute we can talk about that. Maybe in a minute.
13:31
Well, in the meantime, then, can I give you a, uh, can I give you a documentary recommendation since we have a minute? Sure.
13:37
Um- I only answer that way 'cause there's so many, like, you know when someone's like, "Hey, have you seen this show?" And it's like, I mean, I've heard of it, but it's, like, on my list of 900 shows to catch up on.
13:46
Okay. There's too many good things on t- on these streaming services. What, what list do you consult more? Your documen- your, your shows to watch or your bets I need to make list? This is a great question.
13:54
I also, I, I mean, also, I feel like most people have a running grocery list too. Yeah, yeah. Right? Like, that's always builds up- Yeah... during the week. Like, that one's not weird, right?
14:01
I definitely have a show/movie list, though. Like, I have that g- I could show it to you right now. A show, oh, show/movie list?
14:07
Like, like, yeah, like, hey, I'm gonna write this down as some shows I wanna be able, I wanna watch, you know? Well, some, uh- I even break it up. There's dramas, there's comedies. [laughs] Oh my God. It's like 30 deep.
14:16
All right, well, uh, someone recommended this. I apologize 'cause I don't remember who, who recommended this the other day, uh, on Twitter, but I, I got on the old Netflix yesterday.
14:26
You know Untold, that series of- Yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah... of sports documentaries. So they, their latest one is the Gilbert Arenas, Javaris Crittenton- Oh my gosh, okay. Ple- well-... incident...
14:35
I mean, I don't wanna say no spoiler alerts 'cause we kinda know what happens, but, uh- Yes... be careful 'cause I'm real- this is the top of my list on documentaries. Okay. I've been looking forward to this one.
14:44
Uh, it is fantastic I thought. Mm. Um, because h- wh- why is it fantastic? It's, I mean, it's not the most amazing story of all time. It's fantastic though because it's the first deep dive into that situation.
14:59
For those who don't know what I'm talking about, uh, when Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton both played for the Washington Wizards- Which I'll push back a little bit. It was a ridiculous story...
15:09
it was, but I think there's probably a portion of the audience that is, today that's like, "What are you talking about?" 'Cause this is, like, what? This is, like, 17 years ago. Yeah. I mean, it's a long time ago.
15:17
So when Arenas and, and Crittenton were both with the Wizards, um, there was an incident where, uh, both had guns in the locker room.
15:27
And what ended up happening is they both ended up ha- getting 50 game suspensions, and in the case of Crittenton, his life spiraled from there.
15:36
And anyway, they have both Arenas and Crittenton on the show talking very sincerely and in depth, and I thought they were both great. They were both now so many years later talking about it, and it was,
15:49
how can I put this? It was just such a sad tale. Just- Oh, it's terrible...
15:54
it's so sad how the immaturity and e- even they would admit this, the stupidity and the egos of young guys lead to just what was just a personal tragedy for, for Crittenton. I, it's sad.
16:09
And not, not only a personal tragedy for Crittenton. I should say the bigger, the bigger thing is that he killed somebody. Yeah. I, I mean, it's, it's s- yeah. He killed somebody.
16:15
And oh, I won't spoil any more, but then there's even more tentacles to that because he's out free now. Yeah, I, I'm looking forward to watching it. I'll leave it, I'll leave it at that.
16:25
I, I mentioned this the other day. I was, I'm f- I was friends with his ex-girlfriend too, so I, like, I knew her perspective on the whole thing too.
16:31
I, just the incident itself, like, when it happened, like, the stories that came out right after it, it was just one of, I mean, it was one of the craziest- Oh, this is one of-... locker room stories you'll ever hear.
16:40
Everyone was a loser in that story. Yes. Everyone. Uh, let's talk some, but I recommend that highly, Untold, on, uh, on Netflix. Uh, let's talk some baseball.
16:47
Paul Sporer joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @Sporer, S-P-O-R-E-R. He works at FanGraphs, and of course the name of the podcast, Sleeper and the Bust.
16:56
How you doing, Paul? Gil, I'm well. How about yourself? Doing very well. Um, I wanna ax you a couple things. One- Okay...
17:04
the San Francisco Giants, don't look now as they say, but the San Francisco Giants are one game out of first place in the, uh, National League West. This is incredible.
17:13
This is after the Dodgers got swept by the Angels and the Padres got swept- Crazy... by the Mariners. Crazy. And then the Giants do Giants magic things, and they, they, they win ballgames.
17:22
By the way, did you see that game the other night? Wilmer Flores had a grand slam, a three-run homer- Yep... and a solo shot against- Yep... the Athletics the other night. Uh, the question- Incredible...
17:30
the question is very simple: would you play, would you bet the San Francisco Giants to win the National League West? Um, and I'm getting the, uh, the number here as we speak.
17:41
I was too busy telling the, uh, the Cr- Plus 1875. No, I'm just kidding. No, uh. No, that's not it. [laughs] Uh, 12, 12 to one. 12 to one on the Giants. That was close. [laughs] Nice chance, though.
17:51
He's just making up numbers now. No. Kelly's just gonna make up numbers from now on. Well, the Dodgers' price is just ridiculous in everything baseball.
17:56
Well, the Dodgers are minus 450, the Padres are eight to one, and the Giants are 12 to one. By the way, it should be mentioned the Diamondbacks, who are a few games back, are 11 to one. What's the bet?
18:05
If I said you must make one bet, what's the bet? Um, probably the Diamondbacks or, or the Padres for me still. You know, I'm not gonna hate on your Giants. I, I have a history on this channel- No...
18:17
of not being as pro Giants, uh, even in the midst of their good seasons. Because as is typical with the Giants, it, it doesn't look like it jumps off the page. You know? That's correct.
18:27
It doesn't really jump off the page of like, oh my God, this is such an amazing team. But I've learned, you know, it only took, uh, you know, what, four or five years of, of them- [laughs]...
18:35
playing very well like this- No... without a great team on paper. But no, I, I do think they have a lot of things working for them. They finally moved Jordan Hicks out of the rotation for Hayden Birdsong.
18:45
I just, I don't even know why they went back to the Jordan Hicks as a starter thing this year. Um, things are a little bit wobbly at times with Ryan Walker, but you got Camilo Doval pitching a b- a lot better this year.
18:56
The offense is exciting. I love Jung Hoo Lee and kind of the element that he brings to the team. It is such a deep, difficult division, though, that push come to shove, I still can't get there for a division bet.
19:08
Now, they might hang around, they might win it, but if you're asking me where I gotta put my money today, it's gotta be on any of the other three.
19:16
[laughs] And I'm probably gonna go Diamondbacks, Padres, uh, you know, more than the Dodgers right now just because they lose a new pitcher every week. But- Yeah... I'm sorry. Well- Am I hating your Giants too much?
19:27
No, no. I just, I can't do it. I, that's why I asked the question, and I'm with you on the Padres, man. Like, I, I'm su- as soon as I don't have a bet on them, I'm sure they'll put it all together. Right.
19:36
But as long as I have a bet on them, it's like, oh, the relief pitching sucks all of a sudden. Oh, the manager doesn't know how to manage the starters all of a sudden. [laughs] Or, or take out a relief pitcher.
19:44
Oh, the offense can't get a hit to save themselves with runners in scoring position. They're in that rut right now, but I'm sure it will all come together 'cause there's too much talent on that team.
19:53
Uh, let me ask you about- Yeah... this. Uh, so Mark Borchardt, you know our buddy Mark Borchardt, base winner. Mm-hmm. Uh, he and I do this derivatives pod, Q1, Q2, Q3. We go through all these betting stats.
20:03
And last year, the biggest thing, the sort of the headline of, of what was uncovered, was that the White Sox, while sucking royally, epically, right, and only winning 41 games last year, they were actually like a top five first five inning team betting-wise.
20:21
I love it. So it was this amazing thing where, you know, 'cause a lot of that had to do with the fact that they were big dogs, but they would manage to- Right... to stay ahead through five.
20:31
Now, it's not as big of a c- it's not quite in that direction this year, but it's almost the same thing. They were, they were fifth first five, uh, when we did the podcast a week ago.
20:41
They're ninth currently, but they're only, like, a few dollars away from being fifth as the, the ninth most profitable first five inning team in baseball. And once again, the White Sox having a terrible year.
20:52
They're 14 and 33. Not as bad as last year, but you get the idea. Right.
20:56
And my question to you is, is this something that bettors should believe is a sustainable thing again, that they might be profitable first five, and then still resu- uh, but, but in games that will still result in them losing?
21:10
Because there's two betting implications here.
21:12
O- one is you could bet them in game knowing this, and two, there are certain sports books that offer something called a double result, a win first five and a loss full game, which is at n- really nice odds.
21:26
So sustainable or not?
21:28
S- there, there is a, a tinge of sustainability here to this with the White Sox, because the, the hallmark of a bad team is always gonna be a wretched bullpen, and, you know, the worse the team, generally the worse the bullpen.
21:41
They've got a little bit of, uh, a little bit of a vibe going with the starters, you know.
21:46
Shane Smith's been a real big s- standout rule five guy from Milwaukee, and then guys like, uh, Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin, not so much Sean Burke, even though there was some expectation for him coming into the year.
21:56
But they've gotten some decent starts. So I, I see how this works and, and the way it did last time because, again, catastrophically bad bullpen is usually why you have a terrible, terrible team. So,
22:10
but the only reason I, I have a little bit of skepticism is because despite, um, you know, at times looking decent as a starter, they don't miss bats.
22:20
And so, you know, that's the part that scares me with the- with their starters, is they, they're not dominant. Shane Smith is the closest one to it.
22:26
But if you're gonna look for a positive, a, you know, a little bit of a silver lining with the White Sox, I do think that their starting pitching is probably the best element of that team, and they could add some guys in season from the minors, too.
22:40
So there might be a little something there. I mean, I wouldn't go crazy on it, but I would certainly keep tabs on it with the White Sox. Yeah.
22:46
The other thing, Kevin, we were talking about at the golf thing how they wouldn't let us in on Scheffler. Last year you used to be able to get that double result on the White Sox at about 7/1 on average.
22:54
Of course the odds aren't as good this year. Really? Oh, they lowered it. I can't believe this is happening. Boo. It just, it's incredible. Uh, DFS on the way out, please. What do we got today?
23:02
So today, I mean, we actually have a pretty interesting board because, um, there's a lot, there's not a ton of, uh, studs. In fact, one of the best, Christopher Sanchez, is at Coors.
23:12
My number one guy today [laughs] is actually going against the Giants, uh, Chris Bubic. I love everything he's doing this year. That's less against the Giants and more positive Chris Bubic.
23:21
I like Nick Lodolo to trying to get right at Pittsburgh. Robbie Ray, the other part of that, uh, SF Giants game. And then as, as far as guys that you're picking on, Edward Cabrera with Cubs, uh, Dean Kramer with Brewers.
23:33
Okay. Colton Gordon with Rays. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate it very much. Paul Spohrer, everyone. Thanks, Gil. Take care. Coming back with that NBA playoff challenge update. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
23:45
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
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Make a smart buy on the off-road ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest lasting trucks.
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24:04
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24:10
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
24:19
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you could trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
24:26
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
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25:17
It's Gil Alexander. We get tweets at Beating The Book.
25:20
Uh, this is from, well, let's see, Brian M., "Every time I walk into my parents' house, the TV is either on sports or on with reruns of CSI, NCIS, SVU, and L&O," [laughs] et cetera. Yep. Yes, all that stuff.
25:34
Scuba Scott, "My vote for this year's Hard Knocks would be the Green Bay Packers. The league throwing all that love to Green Bay this year by hosting the draft. Why not complete it by putting them on Hard Knocks?"
25:44
Um, LFC also tweeted in again, saying, "I wonder if the TV shows you watch could indicate future successes in life. Kelly would obsess over football on Thanksgiving while his siblings watch Law & Order.
25:53
What do his siblings do for a living again?" Dun, dun. Insert Law & Order theme. That's great. [laughs] Yeah. That is great. Um- Very true. Very true...
26:00
James Sott, "Are you guys," meaning you, Drew, and Zach, "doing a French Open pod of the mega variety?" Yes. We hope to do one this week, uh, hopefully Thursday. Wyatt Tomchek out there listening. Uh, hopefully Thursday.
26:14
That's when the, uh, French Open draw will come out. They have a couple 250s and 500s on both the men's and ladies' side this week. Hamburg, Strasbourg.
26:22
Hamburg, Strasbourg, that kind of thing, before the French Open, uh, next week. Ham- Begins on Sunday night our time, French Open. Hamburg, Germany? Yes. Strasbourg, Austria? Oh, that's a good, that's a good question.
26:36
Switzerland? Strasbourg? Wow, I'm, I feel bad that I don't know. Um, okay. It, it- It is- Wait, France? Oh, it's on the border there maybe? Is it a border town? Okay. Well, [laughs] you got the right Strasbourg.
26:48
[laughs] Questions that should be asked off air. Poor geography questions. No, they're more fun on air. Uh, [laughs] oh. What- France. France... France. Okay. I would've gotten that so wrong.
26:58
I would've gone- But it's one of those things we should know... I would've- We should know, Wes... I would've gone Austria or Switzerland first. Yeah.
27:04
Um, before we get to Wes, you know the other big thing that happened this weekend, the Electric Daisy Carnival, EDC. Did you- Yeah... were you a part of it? Did you go? No, not at all, Gil.
27:13
It sounds like one of my worst nightmares, uh- [laughs]... to attend that, but the, uh- Me too... it's really, it's just, it's, it's w- have you ever, have you heard about, like, the traffic getting in, in and out of it?
27:23
They do it- That's the night- They do it at the racetrack now? They, yeah, think so, or somewhere up there. Yeah.
27:28
But, like, I mean, I, all I've heard it, the smartest move I've heard is people paying to helicopter in, and I heard how much it was, like, the last week, and I was like, "You know what? It's not even that bad."
27:35
Smartest thing they did was move it out there, 'cause when it used to be here closer to town, like, it was- Oh, I wasn't even around for that. Oh.
27:41
But yeah, this morning downtown we still got some EDC partygoers out strolling the streets.
27:45
Bro, and E- when EDC, and I'm not trying to be funny here, when EDC first started, like, if they got through it without a death by heatstroke or by something else, they were thrilled.
27:54
Like, it was bad the first few years. That's awful. It, it was. I don't know w- It was bad... what it, what would've changed to have stopped that, though. Uh, because they got smarter. They got, like, water was abundant.
28:04
Okay. I think it was really, like, bad news the first few years. Wes Reynolds joins. I'm not sure if he's ever attended an EDC. He doesn't seem like an EDC kind of guy, but you never know with Wes. You never know.
28:13
It's very surprising. Uh, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line, part of the whole glue that holds this whole operation together. You can follow him on Twitter @wesreynolds1. That's the number one. How you doing, Wes?
28:23
Gil, I think you already know the answer to that question. [laughs] Hell no, I would not attend an EDC.
28:27
That's, uh, and I, I, I saw the tweets, uh, in terms of, like, what they charge in terms of for water and various beverages.
28:34
It's like being out at, at the racetrack, like at, you know, seemingly very, very far away in a very remote area of town, that seems, like, really, really miserable to me. Yeah. But to each their own. To each their own.
28:47
[laughs] That's exactly right. Wes and I couldn't live, like, Vegas is not that big a place.
28:51
If you guys haven't been here before, I think there's, I think it's, I think most people think Vegas is bigger than it really is, the whole city.
28:58
But Wes and I both live about as far away from that as we, as you possibly could while still being considered in Las Vegas.
29:05
I was right about Strasbourg, right on the, uh, right on the border, but not with Switzerland, with Germany. There you go. Anyway. Hey, we should be better.
29:11
Wes, did you have Scottie Scheffler in this tournament, in the PGA? I did not.
29:17
And, uh, you know, you could say buyer's remorse, but, you know, he was around four to one or a little bit less, so it's kinda like you take a shot and try to beat him and hope he's off, and he wasn't off.
29:27
And he, it wasn't like he was really great in one particular thing. His, just his all-around game was the best.
29:34
And, and I think, you know, there, there is a sign, I have a, a great picture of a, a Indiana, former Indiana basketball coach Bob Knight, where he's sitting in a locker room, just kicked back, drinking a Coke, and there's a prominent sign right next to him that says, "Victory favors the team making the fewest mistakes."
29:51
And I think that applies to Scottie Scheffler here. Victory favors the player that makes the fewest mistakes.
29:56
He, when he does make one, he is able to recover better than anybody else, just like, kind of like Tiger was when he was on his run. And, and that's what happened.
30:04
Like, if you look at the stat categories, he led tee to green, but it's not like he led in one particular category. He just n- wasn't bad in any of them, and didn't have any deficiencies in his game.
30:16
Uh, and even then it got a little tight going into the back nine, where it's like, okay, you know, is he gonna put this away?
30:22
And then all of a sudden a, a one-shot lead, and actually they were tied for a while, became, like, a six-shot lead just like that.
30:29
And, and he was by far the best player When we were doing Primetime Action, Kelly, Matt, and I, I made the outlandish statement at the time, I was like, "You should probably think bet- betting Scottie Scheffler every single golf tournament."
30:40
Um, we have reached the point now, again, we just flashed up a stat earlier, 15 titles, uh, before the age of 29, three majors. Only Jack and Tiger fit that category along with Scheffler now.
30:52
Have we reached the point in the sport now, obviously the US Open is the next major, and I guess the quest- I wanna ask it this way: have we reached the point that it's Scheffler, Rory, and then it's everybody else,
31:07
or is it a little less simple than that? And then the other part of that is, when it comes to the US Open, you do have some US Open specialists historically, right?
31:17
Andy North, who famously does, uh, analysis for golf on ESPN, he won two US Opens. Like, his game lent itself to really hard courses and performing well on that kind of course.
31:30
Um, on, on, on the harder courses where the, there, there was less of a chance for someone to go out and, and shoot an, a score that he couldn't possibly with the, the profile of his game. Do we have a player like that?
31:42
Do we have a modern-day equivalent to an Andy North? And what about the s- the whole state of the game in general? Is it Scheffler and Rory so far ahead of the pack at this point?
31:52
Uh, I'll go with the, I'll go with the latter question first. Uh, you've got a very, I think, very tight circle of players in terms of guys that have been winning major championships latel- lately.
32:04
Not only Scheffler, but McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, uh, you know, as he kind of works his way back into form. Keep in mind, he did win two of the four last year, so you can't necessarily rule him out. Bryson DeChambeau.
32:15
I think what's going on here is the mid-range guys just aren't getting it done. The guys that are below that top class on the odds board that you see pretty much every single week,
32:25
the, the guys in the 30 to 1 range, 35s, like, those guys don't feel like they're threats right now to win majors. The, the Viktor Hovlands of the world, the Patrick Cantlays, uh, uh- Salatorius... the Tommy Fleetwoods.
32:38
Yeah. Yes, uh, the Collin Morikawas even. Yeah. Even though he's not that far down the mid-range. They just don't feel like threats right now.
32:46
It feels like a very concentrated small circle of players that, that are, that are gonna win these things, and you just... Uh, I think the last dark horse was Brian Harman at the Open.
32:56
Like, there's always kind of gonna be an outlier every couple to few years, where it's like a guy that comes out of nowhere is gonna go ahead and win.
33:03
But yeah, you, you just, right now it, it, it's very, very top-heavy, uh, s- wh- when I look at it, uh, uh, going forward with the majors. Uh, Wes, question about this week.
33:13
I know you and I will be talking tomorrow on Long Shots about the Charles Schwab Challenge.
33:17
I just pulled up the odds board, though, and, uh, I guess I'm a little surprised to see that Scottie Scheffler hasn't already withdrawn.
33:22
Should we be, [laughs] uh, making bets, uh, should we be making bets today, or do you think Scottie will stay in this thing?
33:28
I think he's probably gonna stay in, Kelly, just because he is, he is a Dallas guy now, and this is being played in Fort Worth. This is the Charles Schwab Challenge.
33:36
Of course, Ben Hogan, uh, you know, this was essentially his event. They call the course Hogan's Alley down there a- at Colonial. So I don't think he's, I don't think he's gonna withdraw.
33:48
I, I, I think, you know, unless there's a really, really good reason, and I guess winning the PGA is a pretty good reason, but I don't think he's, he's gonna withdraw this week. I, I would be shocked if he did.
33:59
I don't think he likes to do that, uh, in these Texas events. He really wants to win these events in the state of Texas.
34:06
So yeah, b- looking at the odds right now, plus two and a quarter, uh, for him to win, and then the next price is 20 to 1.
34:13
So that's what you're getting when you get, when you get a guy that's on a roll like Scottie Scheffler, those are the odds you're gonna get. So, uh, uh, we shall see. I don't wanna, like- Yeah...
34:22
but now I'm worried to start writing this thing, and it's like, "Oh, God- [laughs]... now I gotta change the whole darn thing," but.
34:26
No, it's a, it's a good thought when you have such a difference between the short shot and the next shortest. It's a good thought to have. W- what about the, the question I asked about US Open specific?
34:36
Oakmont, June 12th. Is there a golfer today that fits that niche kind of thing that Andy North did back in the day? Well, I, I, u- usually with US Opens, I do kind of like grinders a little bit.
34:49
Uh, uh, I was very surprised to see Matt Fitzpatrick play very well, uh, at the PGA.
34:54
Uh, he, he was in it pretty much all weekend, was in, uh, uh, the final couple pairings, and he did, we did have him a couple years ago when he won at Brookline up in Massachusetts at the country club, and kind of a grinder.
35:05
He's a guy, 'cause the US Open is a major that you're not shooting double digits under par.
35:10
This is grind out for par and try to shoot one under on your round, and, you know, lower scoring events like that I think favor certain players that are a little bit grinder.
35:20
So, uh, uh, Matt Fitzpatrick, as I'm kind of looking down the list here, gives me a little bit of an interest because he, you know- Okay... he's a, a grinder. He's not gonna win at, like, 20 under par- All right...
35:30
or something like that, but that was an interesting one. Wes Hol- Hold that thought. We'll come right back. We'll continue this with Wes Reynolds next. Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
35:38
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
35:44
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
35:51
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
35:57
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
36:04
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
36:14
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
36:22
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
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