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May 1, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 1, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 1, 2024
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33:40
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story. They always do. One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you. Good in quotes.
0:12
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada at the D. Good morning to you, Kelly Bidlin. Hey, buddy.
0:24
How are you? I'm doing, I'm doing okay. [laughs] How are, how are you today? I'm, uh, I slept on it. We're good. I- Okay... w- w- we're furry too, by the way. We have a show today. We're doing a show.
0:34
Um, we'll work on the music. [laughs] Um, didn't really expect to have the Cars blaring in the background while we do this segment.
0:39
But, uh, on the show today, JBT, uh, will join us, Felika, uh, Will Hill, Jason Weingarten. We'll have a bunch to, uh, talk about.
0:48
J- um, NBA obviously coming up, but we gotta talk about, uh, what happened last night to our 65 to one ticket on the Cleveland Guardians most wins March and April, um, that was offered at Circa.
1:00
It was offered at some dead heat shops like, uh, DraftKings and at, uh, William Hill Caesars, and there's no way to, there's no way to sugarcoat this.
1:09
That's the s- I'll, I'll repeat what I texted Bill, what I actually tweeted out last night. That's the sickest beat
1:16
that I've ever endured in my gambling life, and I am unlikely to ever experience something as sick ever again. And what I mean by that, let me clarify. In a vacuum, what happened last night, the Houston Astros,
1:33
or I should say the Guardians, for the Guardians were affected. The Guardians one out away from winning this bet, likely to have won this bet for us, and as it turned out, it was one out away from winning this bet.
1:42
Two run homer by the Astros. Astros beat the Guardians 10 to nine.
1:45
In a vacuum, eh, that doesn't happen every night in baseball, but you're liable to see a result like that once a week maybe, once every two weeks, where it gets down to the last out and then, uh, a game changes.
1:55
So in a vacuum, it's not the worst beat of all time. It's baseball happened to you.
2:00
But given the stakes, um, given how many people rode this bet, all the numbers game listeners who rode this bet, how many people, um, rooted us on even if they weren't involved in the bet, and the fact that we lived it for 34 days
2:15
and it came down to the final games of the final night to the point, Kelly, where texts started to fly around, "What if these games don't end till May? What if they last long enough? Then what happens?"
2:29
Like, that's the mashugas that was happening with these. So- You mean like B-Gate? If that became a thing.
2:34
Like if the Dodgers, uh, right, if the Dodgers had won, uh, one, right, they could, they could've been- Just if the game an extra innings- Yeah, yeah...
2:39
and, and in Houston time, like people were sending around those texts. [laughs] Like that, yeah. Right? If the extras kept going, yeah. What if it ends in May? Does that count? You know, those kinds of things.
2:47
Um, so it was just, given those stakes, it was the s- it's the sickest thing that's ever happened. Again, 65 to one. Um, we're- And, and, and how everything else, like the rest of the night, went your way almost- No...
2:58
right? So the whole... And we're gonna read all the tweet- all the, all the great tweets from last night, too.
3:03
Um, but it, you know, my whole day was set around 5:10 Pacific, 6:40 Pacific, the 90-minute stagger between the Guardians game and the Braves game.
3:13
All we needed at Circa was for the Guardians to win, and the As- and excuse me, the Braves to lose. Those were both dogs to happen, but it's baseball.
3:21
And so I get there, I'm at the Aria VIP section, and it's me, not by myself this time, but with a band of Orlando Magic fans led by this lady who wanted everybody in the VIP section to know that she knew
3:35
all the Magic on a first name basis. [laughs] So no matter what happened in the Magic game on the big screen, she's like, "Oh, come on, Jamal. Oh, Paulo, I hate when you do that." Right? That kind of thing.
3:45
I was enduring. [laughs] So I'm in my- Welcome to Vegas, Florida people. Yeah. [laughs] I'm in my zone watching my screens. And, um, so yeah, I make the modicum of a bet on the, uh, on the, uh, Astros to start the game.
3:59
But you know, I'm not like a hedger by nature on the final day, and we've made tons of money on this. Not, not nearly 65 to one. I made one hedge earlier.
4:07
But then two batters into the game, Kelly, Cleveland gets the first two batters on. Uh, and I'm like, "Forget this. Guardians plus 102."
4:14
I'm gonna know that, and two batters later, Ramirez pops up, and then Gattis-- Excuse me, not Gattis. Pardon me. We'll get to Gattis. Um, Josh Naylor, oppo yard, three-run Jimmy Jack.
4:25
It's three to nothing Guardians, and I'm like, "Genius, genius bet, uh, and this is gonna work out perfectly 'cause now the Guardians are going to smooth sail, and I can consider a Braves bet before 6:40 Pacific.
4:40
Perfect start to the game. This is awesome." Except for the fact what had happened was we had Carlos Carrasco on the mound, and this is not vintage Carrasco.
4:51
And you could tell by the at-bat that he had against Alex Bregman in the first inning, where we just kind of escaped that at-bat, that Bregman was actually locked in.
4:58
And sure enough, when Bregman comes up in the third with two men on, he just blasts the first pitch over the fence, um, into the stands. Three to three.
5:09
And then before you could say, "Well, this was a fun ride," it's five to three. And then with two men on, John Singleton, great movie, Boyz in the Hood, by the way, you should absolutely watch it.
5:20
John Singleton golfs like a fairway three wood, golfs it into the right field stands, and it's eight to three. Go from, "Okay, this is gonna be a smooth sailing night," into, "Oh, it's over." Yeah. Fourth inning,
5:35
it's over. It's eight to three. And at that point, we start sending around the text, 'cause me and Felika and Will Hill have sort of lived this on a daily basis, if not a inning-by-inning basis.
5:45
[laughs] And at that point, the texts start going around where I'm like, "Hey, it-- this was great to share this with you guys. Uh, what a ride. You know, uh, what a bet." That kind of tone, down eight to three.
5:59
So for the fourth inning and the rest of the fourth inning and the fifth inning, this bet is done. It's over. We lost. Done.
6:04
And I'm listening to the, you know, the Magic girl talking about calling, was it Joe Ingles' dad? She calls him Dad the whole time. "Great play, Dad." I'm like, "Oh my God, I'm gonna..."
6:12
I don't even know why I'm sticking around. [laughs] We're down five, right? But I'm just like, I'm like, "Well, you know, for five and a half years on this show, I did the show off the top of my dome."
6:20
And then when Kelly got here a couple years ago, there's actually something called a rundown I learned in, uh, media.
6:24
And so I'm like, "Well, Kelly, she'd probably want me to know something about basketball, so I better pay attention."
6:29
And then the sixth inning comes around, and Quan triples, and Jimenez then just destroys a ball into the right field stands. Eight-five. So I text Felika and Will, 'cause I don't know if Felika's watching anymore, right?
6:43
'Cause you know how some people are half glass full, half empty? Felika gambles at seven-eighths empty. He's just Mr. Pessimism.
6:51
So I send him eight-five, and I'm thinking as he receives this, he's like, "Yeah, whatever." 'Cause, and he'd be right. We're still down three runs. Yeah. Still down three runs.
6:58
And then two more men get on, walk, hit by pitch, and Estevan Florial steps to the plate.
7:03
Now, I don't know if you remember this early in this bet, the Guardians lost a best of three series to the Yankees largely because Florial got rung up by an umpire.
7:12
That was such a bad call that umpire auditor has it, had it as like his sixth worst call of the entire week in baseball. The fact there were five worse than it was amazing. Yeah.
7:21
So I thought to myself as Florial's stepping out of the plate and he starts fouling off pitches, I'm like, "Wouldn't this be the most poetic thing ever if after that horrible call so many weeks ago, if he parked this?"
7:36
And sure enough, as he starts fouling off pitches, you're like, "Is this about to happen?" Bam, gone.
7:41
And I, from quiet little guy locked into my screens, erupt, and I start going around the VI par- VIP area cursing like you couldn't imagine in a guttural tone. [laughs] And the Magic girl looks at me in horror.
7:57
She's terrified to the point where I'm like, "Sorry." She goes, "No, it's, it's okay. It's okay. Just rooting on your team." I mean, yeah, that's all I'm doing. I'm rooting on.
8:05
So- You're rooting on your team- That's all I'm doing... in a sports book. Yeah. Um, so eight to eight, this cannot possibly be happening. This can't be happening.
8:15
Now, the whole time this is going on, Luis Castillo in Seattle, half a country away, is giving us everything we need against the Atlanta Braves.
8:23
He's mowing down the Braves, and then Jorge Polanco hits a two-run homer in Seattle.
8:28
They eventually go up three to nothing, and then in the seventh while that's happening, the Guardians load the bases with one out in the meat of the order. Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor, this is gonna happen.
8:38
It's about to go down. They don't get a single run. Oh, I didn't catch that part of it. They don't get a single run. So you're like, "Okay, well at least we have the Mariners thing going, so this is fitting."
8:48
It's coming down to the actual Guardians game for the circuit people, the dead heat people. Good God. We'll get to that in a moment. And then Josh Hader comes in for the Astros.
8:59
Clase comes in for the Guardians in the ninth. We're going to extras, 'cause of course we're going to extras. Of course this bet is gonna come down to extras in the final game.
9:09
And, uh, Joe Espada, the, uh, Astros manager, of course realizing the stakes of this bet, keeps Hader in for a second inning.
9:16
By the way, why they didn't lead w- on SportsCenter with these two games last night, I have no idea. I don't know what they were doing. They're showing basketball and hockey. Apparently that was going on as well.
9:24
So Espa- he, he puts in Hader in the top of the 10th. First two batters out, and then David Fry steps to the plate, man on second, and I thought he jacked it over the left field fence. Instead it's a double.
9:35
Ghost man scores. We are three outs away. Three outs away. Everybody's texting. Three outs away. Three outs away. Do you ever watch the, uh, the 30 for 30 on the Red Sox and the Mets 1986 World Series? Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
9:48
One of the only things I remember from it is they, they were smart enough to capture a Red Sox fan.
9:53
And in those days, Kelly, on phones, this is before your time, you could punch in six of the seven numbers of a phone number, and then you could hold your finger over the seventh,
10:03
and the phone would hold the first six, and then once you hit the seventh, the, the call would go through. So this guy wanted to share this great moment of this cursed franchise.
10:11
The Red Sox were about to win the World Series, so he punched in six numbers and he was about to hit the seventh to share it with his lifelong Red Sox buddy.
10:18
And then Gary Carter hit a single up the middle, and he puts the phone down, and he-- then it comes down to the final strike again, and he hits the first, the next six numbers again, and
10:27
about to hit the seventh, and then Mookie goes through Bill Buckner's legs, and the Mets win, and he just puts the phone down, and he sulks away. Three outs. Hunter Gattis comes in.
10:39
Hunter Gattis, who gacked the game on Sunday against the Braves when the Guardians were up three to one in the eighth. Gattis strikes out the first batter. Two outs. Everybody's texting each other.
10:50
The modern day version of this Red Sox story. Then second batter out. One out away. By this time I'm alone in the VIP area. One out away. One-oh pitch.
11:01
First of all, up steps Victor Caratini, a peripatetic journeyman player- Oh, sure, yeah...
11:06
who has played in the National League for almost a decade and has probably hit 38, I, I think I looked it up, 38, 39 homers, something like that, lifetime. One-oh pitch, gone. Right field stands.
11:18
You know how in life when your eye sees something, it immediately registers in your brain and there's no gap in that? This was one of these rare moments
11:27
where your brain wouldn't accept what just happened until about two and a half seconds later. And I'm like, "Is there a rewind button? What just happened?" I, I just pulled up the highlight again.
11:38
Every time I see- And I just fell backwards onto the couch staring at the RES. Oh. And that- Brutal... that. Dead heater still had a chance. That's next.
11:50
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12:03
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12:51
A Numbers Game with Gil Alexander, ANG. [laughs] You just have to put the ANG part though. That's V- Yeah, you don't gotta put all that. [laughs] Just ANG. That's vsin.com/subscribe.
13:03
Um, Gil Alexander, Kelly Bittling live from Bar Canada at the D. The rest of that story is, people were so nice that when that happened, some people were like, "Well, you know what?
13:14
The Braves have the bases loaded and they're coming back, so maybe the Braves will win, and it won't be as gut-wrenching." Of course, the Braves didn't, by the way.
13:21
Um, but at that point, I was like, well, that's a nice sentiment, but you know, there's the dead heat guys at DraftKings and at, uh, William Hill Caesars.
13:31
They can still-- And by the way, it was literally gonna be twenty percent of Major League Baseball in this dead heat. Everybody with 19 wins was losing.
13:40
Um, [laughs] and then I think one came up, I think the Orioles came up. So it was literally gonna be six teams in a scrum if everything held course. But I was still rooting- Yeah, would have been brutal...
13:49
for them to get something out of it, right? Yeah. Um, so the Braves lose, and then late into the night, the Phillies win. They come from behind to beat the Angels.
13:58
We should probably point out, you and I both made a bet yesterday. Yeah. Mike Trout is gonna be out for minimum of four to six weeks. He was real emotional.
14:06
I was walking through the casino, I was looking at this screens. Yeah, I caught that too.
14:08
Um, but we made a bet 'cause we were talking about this yesterday on the show, um, fewest losses in Major League Baseball, and I was saying how the White Sox and the Rockies were appropriately priced. They're horrible.
14:18
But if you forced me to wa- make one, the Angels were forty to one yesterday during the show. Then the Trout news comes down, I'm like, "All right, I'm gonna bet this." Yeah.
14:25
Thirty to one is what we got it at yesterday on the Angels, uh, who are five games, five wins better than the, uh, the worst teams in baseball right now. Anyway,
14:34
the Phillies come from behind to beat the Angels, and then the Diamondbacks come from behind in a bee-infested delayed game, it's like Indian Wells all over again, um, to beat the Dodgers.
14:47
And so if you had the Phillies, you take it all. Wow. Look at those final standings. Again, April, May, twenty and eleven. The Phillies are the only team of the seven, Ke- oh, excuse me, of the six that got to twenty.
15:02
The other five remain at nineteen. The Guardians end up third. So if you had the Phillies, by the way, in this, please let us know. Please let us know what odds you got.
15:10
And I wanna shout out Brian Schaefer, who's been one of our, uh, tweeters. He called the Phillies like a week ago. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yeah. Yep.
15:16
And from a Guardians perspective, we never really had to worry about the Phillies 'cause it didn't, it didn't apply.
15:21
But the Phillies are the team that gets it, and someone pointed out, yeah, with a, uh, run differential the same as the Diamondbacks. Well- It's more of an outlier for the Diamondbacks than it is the Phillies though...
15:29
especially if you had this bet like in a dead heat shop too, like the Phillies, like you some- somehow just scoop it all.
15:35
Like none of these other teams come-- I mean, that was the other, that was the other part of it with the Guardians, right? That's so painful this morning.
15:41
Y- you know, you win, even if you're at a dead heat shop, you're only chopping this one way. Yes, that's correct. Like we were going, how much time did we spend yesterday talking about, "Oh boy, how bad could this be?
15:52
You gotta chop it two, three, four, five, six ways." No, it only would've been once. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Can I read some tweets? Yeah. We'll get to basketball, I promise.
16:04
But we just have to, I mean, this is, we've lived with this, right? Mm-hmm. Uh, Dan Shepherd, "Of all people, Estevan Flor-" So this is while it's happening in real time, right? This is the tied up at eight a piece.
16:13
"Of all people, Estevan Floreal keeps the hope alive. Hopefully karma from the Yankee series. He was on it." Um, D Mark B quoting Jack Buck, "I can't believe what I just saw." This is after the Floreal home run.
16:25
Jeff Weisenborn, "I wish so badly we had live video of Gil watching the Guardians game. What a rollercoaster." You could really have done a documentary on this bet.
16:32
The way that it ended, th- if you had written this script- I, yes... they wouldn't have accepted it. Right. They'd been like, "This is, this is bull." Yeah. Like, "This is too outlandish."
16:41
Uh, John Fitzgibbons, "Call a doctor. You know you need to listen when your body tells you things. Go Gils Guardians." As I said, I can't breathe, I said at that point. Uh, Podiatron, "Let's go.
16:49
I didn't make the bet, but I hope you will. I hope you win. I think if you win, you should release your sushi place. That's good karma." I literally was gonna come in and just say the sushi place if they won. Okay.
17:00
I was. [laughs] I'm telling you I was. Forest Lehman, "To say you're getting your money worth would be the understatement of the year." Aaron Bender, "I'm on the edge of my seat, and I have nothing on it. Go Tribe, go."
17:10
Kenny Kubecki, "If this was a movie, I'd be rolling my eyes. This isn't realistic. What a ride following your bet." Uh, Dusty, "Would love a live feed of Gil watching this game right now."
17:21
Benny Warnick, "The fact I'm on the edge of my seat for a Cleveland-Houston game at the end of April proves this most wins bet is incredible. Hats off, Gil, for an awesome ride."
17:29
Jeremy Pucko, "This has been the most fun month of baseball in a long time. Not sure how I don't do a month bet from here on out, win or lose." And then he goes home run. He goes, "Home run, J Rod."
17:39
I think he meant Jorge Polanco at that point. Uh, Joe Balicious, who names his, his Twitter handle is named after Joe Boo from Major League, and that was the Cleveland Indians, remember?
17:48
Uh, Joe Balicious goes, "I have no skin in the game, but just did a free trial of MLB.tv just to watch this game and see it through." The best listeners in the game. Oh, that's what I could have done.
17:57
Yeah, I just was watching the scores. Oh, that's what I could have done. A free trial. There we go. Vegas Dreaming, "Anyone check on Gil? How's he holding up? #edgeofseat."
18:04
Raul Campa, "I'm an Astros fan, and I'm rooting for you." Sly Bry, DJ Sly Bry, my man. He goes, "My man has people sweating two baseball games on April thirtieth. Well done, brother."
18:14
Matthew Livingston, "One day they'll make a movie about this bet." Um- PJ. Oh man, of course it turns out to be the sweat of the century, but ultimately fell short. Oy vey, it was a great follow.
18:25
This is when they lose now. It was a great follow, and we will still never know the sushi place. [laughs] Uh, Buddhist Man.
18:32
As, as I sit here with my minuscule bet on Baltimore for most April wins with 19 in the clubhouse in a dead heat chop, I still found myself rooting for the Guardians, for you, and the rest of the ANG family.
18:41
I'm sick for all of you and this epic run at glory ended that way. Um, can we cue the, uh, patriotic music for this one? Mm-hmm. Can we do this one? This is from, uh, Mr. Lucky. Remember Mr.
18:50
Lucky was the one who posted yesterday and got me to make a May bet. He's quoting Theodore Roosevelt.
18:56
"The man in the arena is not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better.
19:04
The credit belongs to the man who was actually in the arena," Kelly, "whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs, who comes short again and again, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he falls, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat."
19:30
It was just a bet in April and March. I was-- That, uh, didn't, like, really reach the shores of Normandy, but I appreciate that. [laughs] Took me for-- It took me a second there. I thought it was Dustin Sweat I heard.
19:41
I was like, "I don't want Dustin Sweetelson's sweat on me." Theodore Roosevelt, who, uh, talked softly and carried a big stick. I don't know if you know that, Val. Mm. Yes, yes, yes. I've heard that.
19:50
Can you imagine if that was the motto today, what people would've done with that? It wouldn't have been good. I'll read some more tweets later. Uh, but these are awesome.
19:57
I just wanna say two more things, and I, and I do wanna say this again 'cause I've said this and we're, we're obviously not gonna talk about this bet much after today. But I just wanna say again, I appreciate
20:06
everybody who the explanation on this bet resonated with, that bet on this with us. Um, you're awesome. I'm sorry it didn't win in the end, but what a ride it was.
20:17
And then again, to those who didn't even bet it and who were rooting us on, it just meant so much to, to us, me especially. Um, and it was just so great to do it with everything.
20:28
I also wanna say this in our final minute or so talking about this. And this will be corny to some people, but I don't really care. This was kind of one giant love letter to the sport of baseball.
20:40
Like, this was one of those things where it reminds us how great this sport can be.
20:47
And I know this was some kooky March-April bet where the players on the field [laughs] had no idea that we were even-- that we even had all of this at stake.
20:56
Um, but baseball at its best, 'cause we sort of like manu- this bet manufactured. Imagine betting enhancing the enjoyment of a sport.
21:04
This bet manufactured an October feel, like a pennant race feel or a playoff series feel. And there is something. What is Bob Costas' line? He goes, "Football's a one-night stand. Baseball's a romance."
21:18
And there is something about the quiet moments of baseball where the tension grows that is not duplicated in any other sport. And it's regional now.
21:27
I know, like, you know, it's Boston and New York and San Francisco and Houston, wherever teams are good. And when they're good, it's gonna erupt.
21:35
Um, but in those towns that I just talked about, Philly, it's kind of a big sport no matter what. But largely it is regional.
21:42
And I just-- Everything about it from Florial's home run to tie it up at eight, from the, you know, the home run in Seattle from Mitch Garver the previous night, um, to just getting our hearts taken out from us yesterday.
21:57
Everything about it was so specifically unique in the way. Obviously, you can get ripped apart in other sports as well, betting and watching as a fan.
22:07
Um, but there is something about the suddenness and the drama of the sport of baseball that you just hope that Rob Manfred, uh, and those guys figure it out, that this sport should not go by the wayside like boxing and horse racing did, which were such big sports when we were kids.
22:23
And it feels like it's headed that way as the generations go on. But this was just a, just a great microcosm of an example through our bet, by the way. If we don't have a bet, we don't care. No. Uh, yeah. We don't.
22:35
I texted Adam Burke and apologized. Stealing his team. Stealing his team for another month. Yeah. Yeah. Back at it. Thank you, Ben Wilson, for the text. Thank you everybody for the texts. Uh, we'll come back.
22:45
NBA on the other side. Will Hill. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Kentucky Derby coming up on Saturday.
23:02
One hundred and fiftieth run for the roses. Are you ready for the greatest two minutes in sports? Saddle up with DK Horse, an official DraftKings affiliate.
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23:24
Download DK Horse now to join the run for the roses action only on the DK Horse app. Uh, we get tweets at Beat of the Book. I wanna read, uh, because you guys are the best. I wanna read more. Roger Jones.
23:33
Heartbreaking loss, Gil, but I personally wanna thank you guys for great content daily and for including the audience. Thank you, guys. Thank you, Roger. Tommy Lorenzo.
23:41
Tommy Lorenzo also had sixty-five to one on the, uh, Tribe. He said, "Unbelievable. I've been a sports bettor for over thirty years. Perhaps my worst bad beat ever." Yes, Tommy, you and me both. Anthony T.
23:51
Now you're a true Guardians fan. They have been letting you and all of Cleveland down. We got a lot of those too, where the Cleveland [chuckles] fans are like, "Welcome to our lives." Uh, Topher Barron. Still in shock.
24:01
That said, my, uh, book pays out if, uh... Oh, this is last night when it's happening. He goes, "My book pays out if Atlanta, Philly, and the Dodgers lose to tie in the ninth or at nineteen.
24:09
That said, we had everything from multiple walk-offs and a bee delay in the last twenty-four hours. Thanks for the enjoyment on an incredible bet." Um, Orocydy guy. Sometimes sports betting can be so cruel.
24:21
That was a gut punch. We all feel your pain. Master of Puppets. Damn, Gil. Just saw what happened. That is up there with the Seahawks not running the ball in the Super Bowl, bad beat wise.
24:29
The w- this one is more because of the 65 to 1 odds. Sorry, brother. Vegas regular. "Sorry Gil and Kelly on the horrible Cleveland ending. A lot of crazy blank happens in the gambling world. Brutal ending."
24:39
Rocky Childress, [laughs] my condolences. All right, thank you Rocky. Brendan, "Ugh, this one stings. Dukes in the P- W- PNW. The baseball gods, or #gamblingHashem, are really [laughs] putting together quite the card.
24:54
Mariners did their part." Uh, Hashem is, uh, literal, uh, the name, which is what Orthodox Jews like Todd Wishnev, uh, call God, and Todd always blames Hashem for his gambling problems [laughs] or his bad beats.
25:08
And then, uh, Steven @brosek1870. [laughs] It's, it's a great tweet. Brosek, brosek1870 goes, "And you're running it back for another month, sicko." [laughs] That's right. We'll stop reading tweets for now for that.
25:21
[laughs] That's right, and I'm a sicko for running it back in May with the Guardians. I resemble that remark, Brosek.
25:27
Uh, Will Hill kind enough to join us again, uh, to talk, uh, baseball, basketball, whatever, on the Progressive Guest Line. We appreciate it. Name of the podcast again, Shoulda Bet More.
25:35
You having fun doing your podcast, Willie? I am having a lot of fun, yes. Oh, that was a very simple answer. Okay. Um, tonight, you're not touching the Heat and the Celtics, are you?
25:45
Two touchdown favorite Boston Celtics.
25:49
Uh, I bet the Celtics to sweep the series, and if the Celtics win big tonight, I'm just gonna, I'm gonna take my ticket up to the window and see if they just cash it out of kindness because they re- this really should've been a sweep.
25:57
[laughs] This, this, Celtics had no business losing a game here. I'm gonna go back to the well. I'm gonna, I, I've been playing this all series. Heat team total under, I think, 92 and a half.
26:06
I just, there's not a lot of paths for offense for this Miami team. They just, uh, they had that ridiculous game where Boston didn't guard the sh- the three-point line in game two, and they, and they buried 23 threes.
26:15
But, um, there's just no shot creation with no Butler, no Rozier. There's just no offense there. If you close out on three-point shooters, uh, Miami doesn't have any paths to going.
26:24
Uh, maybe the first half under team total wise is the better way to go.
26:27
I think 47 and a half, 48, something like that because, you know, Boston, and a lot of teams do this, they get a big lead and the game kind of gets a little loosey-goosey and y- you can get some cheap points.
26:37
So maybe under 48 team total first half is the better way to play it. I'll probably play both where, I mean, if you look at these scores, Miami's, like, in the 30s in some of these games at halftime.
26:45
They just, they can't score. There's n- there's no offense for them. Yeah. So I don't love laying 14. If I had to take it or lay it, I'd probably lay it. But, uh, it's ridiculous that we've even played a game five here.
26:55
Yeah, no Jaime Jaquez Jr. [laughs] tonight for Miami either- Oh, geez... so it just adds up. I, I'm w- I'm with you. I got nothing on that game, but I think that first half team total under is where I'd look.
27:04
I, I think there's a possibility it gets to blowout territory in the second half, and like you said, it's just, once you get to that point, w- who knows what gross things could happen.
27:12
It, it needs to be said again, what a shame that Jimmy Butler wasn't available here. What a shame that Zion wasn't available in the Pelican series. What a shame about Giannis and Dame. It's incredible.
27:22
Um, now the- Kawhi... now the Kawhi Like we keep making big, I mean- Now the poor Zingas thing. Luka to some extent, right? Joel Embiid. Joel Embiid of course.
27:32
It's just, it, the, the first round of the NBA playoffs just got decimated. You know what else I thought about just thinking about the Knicks bad beat last night?
27:38
Didn't Drew, God, I hope he doesn't mind me bringing this up. Oh my goodness. Didn't Drew have them minus two and a half games- Yeah... in the series? Mm-hmm, and to win the series.
27:47
Bro, that, that dude is in the worst relentless run I've ever witnessed. Oh. When it rains it pours. It's brutal. All right. Good game tonight between the Mavs and the Clippers, at least on paper it is.
28:00
Uh, this one's two and two between the, uh, fourth and fifth seeds in the Western Conference. Clip show, home dogs once again. Mavericks favored by three. Yeah, I haven't had a great feel for this series.
28:13
Once I saw Kawhi was hurt and not gonna be a factor in the series, I was like, all right, it's probably, there's not a lot of paths for the Clippers to win this series.
28:19
But Luka's banged up with the knee so I don't know, I'd probably look at an under. Um, I just think this has been kind of an ugly defensive series. I figure they'll probably split and play a game seven.
28:30
I, you know, I saw some books out there, Clippers plus 170 to win this series. Like I'm, I'm not a huge Clippers guy, but boy, should it really be plus 170 with two out of the three at home? Luka hobbled.
28:39
Again, life on the line, no odds or whatever, I'd probably pick the Mavs to win, but at plus 170 seems like too, uh, too long of a price. So I don't really have a great feel for the side.
28:48
I guess, I said it, they'll probably split the next two. I, I would lean towards taking the Clippers plus the three of the Mavs win their home game. Although home court has not meant a lot. Nope.
28:55
Uh, when these two teams met up, remember that series a few years ago where the, I think the road team went six and one.
29:00
The road teams have done okay here, and n- nobody in America, once the, the Mavs were down 31 and came back to believe, nobody in America thought [laughs] the Clippers were winning that game.
29:07
So it's been a strange series. I would look at an under tonight, probably headed for seven here. All right, and repeat the Timberwolves bet real quick for those who missed it last segment. Yeah, I like Minnesota.
29:16
You can give it, uh, bet the series spread. So you can get Minnesota plus one and a half games where, I mean, I, not that I have to explain it, but- Yeah...
29:23
just in case, it is a little bit of an odd, an odd market where if Minnesota wins the series you win your bet. If the ga- if the, uh, the series goes seven you win your bet. And again, I just think the Nuggets are good.
29:32
I, they're still my pick to win it all, but they're not dominant.
29:34
Man, it was such a strange series with the Lakers where, man, I, it, it's amazing how those games were carbon copies of each other where the Lakers just dominate for- Yeah...
29:42
85% and then the Nuggets just, "All right, we'll take it here at the end." So, uh, I, I think the Timberwolves is a good matchup for Minnesota where they have a bunch of size on the perimeter to throw at Murray.
29:52
They have a size to throw at Jokic. Who knows how healthy Murray is. They've got the star in Edwards. Um, wouldn't be shocked if this goes seven. Again, I don't think this is going four or five.
29:59
Maybe, maybe Denver wins it in six, maybe, but I think six is kind of the minimum this goes.
30:04
And I, I just like the, the two chances to win where if Minnesota wins the series you win your bet, and if Minnesota takes it to seven you win your bet.
30:10
And I don't know, we, we've seen some movement here towards the T-wolves, not just in the series but in game one where it opened five and that's starting to trickle down. The series price opened minus 230.
30:19
That's really starting to trickle down, so I don't know. I'm curious what Kelly thinks about this, this matchup, but I, I do think this is...
30:25
I mean, this is probably the best matchup of the second round right now, I think Yeah, I, it's tough.
30:28
I think it's tough, Will, 'cause that was, that was the s- that was the exact series price on the opener that I had guessed it was going to be. Me too.
30:35
I was interested on getting in on Timberwolves with you, but then after it's just moved and moved and moved, it's... I, I mean, if anything, I think there's a little bit of value on Denver, and I might...
30:46
I'm, I'm still gonna be interested in Minnesota down the road. This game one movement is very interesting to me.
30:51
I think Jamal Murray, uh, y- you know, still de- still dealing with a bit of an injury is a bit of a question, but I'm a little shocked we're under five now, and- Nuggets by four in some shops...
31:01
yeah, like I might be laying that game one with the, with Denver, 'cause if anything, I think d- I think that's gonna be the toughest game for Minnesota to go in there and steal.
31:09
You know, if you're assuming health everywhere, I think that one's g- that one's gonna be tough. I might bet them game one and then come back with Timberwolves stuff after that.
31:16
That's Saturday, by the way, game one between the Nuggets and the T-Wolves.
31:20
I, uh, almost laugh when I'm, when I'm about to ask you, Will, but do you have any baseball today that [laughs] you, that you're diving back into, or, or are we taking a break at the Hill household?
31:29
Uh, Cleveland and Houston tonight, Verlander versus Mackenzie. Get excited. [laughs] That's right. Uh, I did take Phillies first five on the money line.
31:36
I think you shop around, you get, like, minus 180 Wheeler, who's, uh, absolutely incredible, going against the Angels, who, uh, I don't think you talked about it yet, but the Angels becoming, and r- and really Trout's becoming just a sad story.
31:46
Oh. I mean, he was looking at being one of, like, the three, five best players of all time. Uh, first half of his career, seven top two finishes in MVP, three MVPs.
31:54
He can't stay healthy, and he was dealing the ball early in the season.
31:57
It's just, like, you know, you set your watch to where it's like it's only a matter of time before he gets hurt, and here he is where the Angels say, "Well, it's not season ending," which is not a great update, which means, uh, w- who knows when you're gonna see him?
32:07
But I, I do like Phillies on the money line. I know you've mentioned the Angels as a worst record candidate, just, uh, brutal luck that franchise has, just completely- Yeah... uh, unlucky year in, year out.
32:15
So I did play Phillies on the money line. I did take the Cubs on the money line with, uh, the lefty, the rookie, Imanaga, going against Boto. So Cubs, Phillies, and thinking about fading your Giants.
32:27
Giants have not played well here. That was disappointing performance by Webb last night, and then Cutter Crawford going for the Red Sox. He's been outstanding, so I might, might add the Red Sox here, too.
32:36
Um, just real quick in our last 30 seconds, is there an equivalent for Mike Trout in any other sport?
32:40
In other words, a guy who is, who had a, a stretch of a, of his career where he was undoubtedly considered the single- God...
32:47
best player in his sport, and yet, if I, if he w- ran into some of my football fan buddies, they would not even know who he was. Oh, no. I thought you meant in terms of the career arc.
32:59
There's one i- in baseball, de Grae's sort of like that, where he's on, on track with all these Cy Youngs to be just an all-time great pitcher, and, um, it just, injuries.
33:08
I- Injuries a- after injury every single year, where the, the, what post-prime has just gotten destroyed here. Yeah. Will, appreciate it, man. Thanks for hanging. All right, see you guys. Thanks for having me.
33:17
@notthewillhill on Twitter, again, the name of his podcast, Shoulda Bet More. He's also, uh, by the way, I buried the headline also, he's on the Bear Bets pod with Felika. Felika joining us a little later, by the way?
33:28
He is. Zach Cohen, Felika, Weingarten, everybody's coming up. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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