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May 1, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | May 1, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | May 1, 2025
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33:41
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story, they always do. So one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlack in the hizzy. Hey-o.
0:22
Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. How you doing, man? Doing pretty good. How about you? Uh, I see you just creeping on up in that VSiN Killer Sports Challenge. Bum, ba, bum.
0:33
Kelly Bidlack tied for third. Actually, in third place, if you really wanna know the truth. Kazarian first, Fezzik second, Bidlack, Bidlack third. Let's roll. Let's roll, baby. Let's go, man.
0:44
Although I got to, uh, I'm running out of selections. Right, like I think I got to make two more. I- Well, we're all running out. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. We're all running out.
0:51
That's been, that's actually been a, a, it's, it's been annoying/the fun part of the strategy of playing it, right? Of knowing that you've gotta get 20 in. Right.
1:00
So you're kinda, you know, kinda going heavier earlier in rounds than I was planning on that. By the way, what, what I'm referring to, the, these, in case you missed it, the, uh, VSiN Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge.
1:10
Killer Sports, uh, where Carl Sack, uh, formerly the NBA guru, Carl Sack, who comes on this show all the time, moves NBA markets when he releases plays, uh, it was his brainchild.
1:20
And, uh, it's 15 folks, 15 folks handicapping, uh, the NBA playoffs.
1:27
A, again, VSiN.com/challenge is where you can follow all this, and is a great way, 'cause it's 570 picks in all once we get through the entire post-season.
1:36
Um, so it's a great way to sort of follow what some of your favorite handicappers are doing- Mm-hmm... right now. Um- Yeah, totally. That's- By the way, to your point, Fezzik was, you know, and Fezzik is adamant.
1:46
When he has a strategy, he has a strategy. He's like, "That's why I put in all mine early, 'cause everybody's gonna put in theirs late." And so he was in the clubhouse at 13 and seven. Yeah, no.
1:54
20, 20 picks in the first round. That, that was a bit of mine, too. I wanted to make sure I fired early, and then it kind of slowed down mid-round and got a little bit p- you know, a little pickier.
2:03
Uh, but yeah, it's, uh, y- you wanna make sure you're able [laughs] to get all 20 in, that's for sure. There you go.
2:07
But no, it's, it's, the o- one other thing that's kind of tripped me up about the contest is you do have to, 'cause I, I, I screwed this up once, I think, uh, last weekend, where you gotta get a, your, all your picks in before the first game starts.
2:20
An, an hour before the first game starts. Thank you, an hour before the first game. Yes. So if you are interested in what everybody's betting for the night, guess what?
2:27
It might be the game that's later in the evening, but you're gonna find out hours in advance. Correct. Um, so there's that, so check it out. Again, we'll talk NBA here momentarily.
2:36
Uh, a little MLB May most wins update, uh, in case you missed what we talked about yesterday, plus we'll update a development. Did I do that? We'll get into that. NFL Rookie of the Year odds.
2:47
We were supposed to do this yesterday. We didn't. Uh, we got, we were talking about random other stuff. Can't imagine what we were talking about that made that get bumped.
2:55
[laughs] Zach Cohen, part- Must have been important.
2:58
[laughs] And, and Zach and Crack today, of course, it's Thursday, Zach Cohen, VSiN senior editor, talk, uh, National Basketball Association and tennis from Madrid today. Oh, I have a tennis play this morning.
3:08
Um, and then, uh, Mike Somich, co-host of Ready, Set, Bet to talk not only NHL playoffs with us, but the Derby, 40, a little more than 48 hours away. Will our horse actually participate? We don't know yet.
3:23
American Promise? [laughs] Yes, I believe that's it. [laughs] Why do we have so much trouble with that? Amer- 'Cause there, 'cause there was American Pharoah, there's all this- That's right...
3:31
that's, I mean, that, for me it's that. Yeah, I think you're right. Uh, American Promise. We'll see if American Promise is a go. Somich has bets to make, and he wants to share them with us, so we will allow him.
3:40
And then of course, the, uh, second part of that Zach and Crack show is Bill Krackomberger, Unscripted, hour number two. Cannot wait for, uh, Crack. Crack said he, he d- we don't usually talk anything.
3:50
He doesn't tease anything he wants to talk about, but you know the story about the kid who, uh, won all that money on some parlay, but then because he was circumventing the casinos- Oh, yeah, yep...
4:01
told him he, he, he's not getting paid, and everybody's chiming in on it. Crack says he has a, he has a different angle on it than everybody. Interesting, all right. So we'll see. We'll see what that's about.
4:09
I look forward to that one. That's what they call a tease in the business. Yeah, sure is. The, uh, I, I find all those stories fascinating. I do, too. Uh, just 'cause it's, it's been handled so differently, right?
4:19
And everybody's- Yeah... got different opinions on how, how it should be, and then how, how it is, right? Right.
4:25
And we know some folks who have circumvented to glory because it was written in the casino's rules, specific wordage that, you know, they could kind of get away with it. It wasn't- Yeah...
4:38
didn't say you can get away with it, but basically the words were such, uh, that they could get away with it, so there you go. Well, we'll get into all that.
4:44
As far as the NBA last night, uh, two games, the first of which was a, uh, punt by the Warriors after two and a half quarters. Uh, Rockets led by as many as 30, and Steve Kerr said, "Okay, that's just about enough."
4:56
Uh, 5:50 left in the third quarter, he pulled everybody, and then I actually texted the group exch- uh, the group text this.
5:02
I'm like, "Pat Spencer's frisky enough where this is gonna get tighter, and then we'll see what happens," and sure enough, it did. Pat Spencer.
5:09
[laughs] Uh, Pat Spencer and, uh, Knox, Kevin Knox, wreaking havoc and, and so E- Eme Odoka had to put back his starters into the game late. Um, it was never close, though, don't get me wrong. Rockets win it 131 to 116.
5:25
Uh, they easily cover the four-point spread in this one, and so that forces a game six back at the Chase Center in San Francisco on Friday night.
5:35
Could be a standalone on Friday night, game six back in, uh, in Golden State, if you will.
5:39
And that is, um, W- Will Hill reminded me yesterday of this was very reminiscent, if you remember the last time the Warriors won the championship, the fourth of their four- Mm... back in 2022, three seasons ago,
5:52
uh, the one where they beat the Celtics four to two in the finals. They played the Grizzlies in round two, in the conference semis. Yeah. It was a very similar thing.
6:00
They had taken one on the road to go up three to one, and it was game five in Memphis, and Memphis just ran them out of the building, and they punted sort of halfway through that game as well to, only to go back and win it, uh, back in San Francisco, or back in Oakland at that time.
6:12
Yeah, I think I feel like I saw that box score shared a few times, uh, yesterday, even leading up to the game- Yeah...
6:18
'cause I, I mean- Yeah, t- tip of the cap to, to all the people that we had on the show, and then man, I feel like everybody was on the Rockets last night, and I, I couldn't get there. Uh, the, uh...
6:27
but man, that, that came home easy, and I, I mean, the handicap was, was right.
6:32
It was Rockets were out of the gate fast, and then Warriors, if they were down enough, were, were you gonna see guys hit the bench, and sure enough, they did. It did.
6:40
It went from 30 to 13, and the Warriors missed, like, five tip-ins- Yeah... that could have knocked it down to 11. Like, at one point it did raise the volume of the announcers. You're like, "What is happening here?"
6:49
[laughs] Um, so anyway, uh, they, they accomplished getting the Rocket starters back in there, whatever that's worth. But back to, uh, game six on Friday night.
6:57
The other one, of course, was the closeout, and much more interesting. The T-Wolves and the Lakers, and the T-Wolves get it done. They close out the Lakers in five at the, uh, at Los Angeles.
7:09
They do so behind the Rudy Gobert game. What a, what a performance for Rudy Gobert. 27 points and 24 boards, nine off the offensive glass. Uh, when there's no one your size on the other team, it kind of helps.
7:22
[laughs] I, it was, it's just- It kind of helps... kind of helps. I mean, that was part of the handicap for me, but obviously this whole series, but, uh, for this game last night as well.
7:31
But man, it w- like, that part, it was just comical at times.
7:34
Like, it just reminded me of, like, everybody who played high school basketball, you always ran into that one team where you're like, "Oh, great, they've got a 6'11" guy on the team." Yeah "Like, what are we gonna do?"
7:44
[laughs] And it was that, 'cause it's just like, the best play the Wolves had in the first half, Gil, was, like, I feel like they had three air balls that was like, "Oh, Gobert's there to just catch it." Yeah.
7:53
Like, "I'm just gonna catch it and put it in." Yeah. Uh, 54 to 37 rebounding advantage for the T-Wolves in the game.
7:58
Julius Randle added 23, and the, the best offense besides Gobert, you know, the throw to Gobert, Gobert, you know, high up above everybody was Randle- Yeah...
8:07
just taking the matter into his own hands, and the reason for that was, in this game, by the way, it was 103 to 96. The Lakers actually took a lead at one point, late third, early fourth.
8:18
And you're like, "How is this possible?" I'll tell you how it's possible.
8:20
You know how I always say the only stat you need in an NBA box score is thir- is three-point percentage, and usually you can, if I see that I can tell you who won the game. Not in this one.
8:29
The T-Wolves were seven of 47 from behind the arc. That's 14.9%.
8:36
At one point, in fact, before Mike Conley sunk a three with just over a minute left to put the Wolves back up six, they had missed 18 straight at one point. This game should have never been close. I was so mad.
8:49
Should have never been close. I texted y- I texted you. I was like, "At halftime I was fully planning on being asleep already 'cause this was gonna be a 25-point game." Oh. "And now somehow I'm sweating out this bet."
9:00
The other thing I do wanna say about this though, and I, I texted you this and I, uh, maybe someone else as well, um, which is I felt like JJ Redick lost this right in the first quarter.
9:10
He- He lost it before the first quarter... he, he end- well, he did. [laughs] Well, he lost it literally.
9:15
Not literally, but you know, he, uh, JJ Redick, uh, had, had endured a lot of criticism, of course, for playing five guys the entire second half in game four.
9:24
Uh, Luka, LeBron, Ochomora, uh, Fini Smith, and uh, why am I always for- oh, and then of course, uh, [clicks tongue] Austin Pier, uh, Austin, uh- Reaves... Austin Reaves.
9:33
Uh, and so he appear- you know, and a guy, some reporter asked a question and he said, "Hey, uh, do you think you'll consult with your assistant?"
9:41
Or whatever, or, "You think you'll, you'll, think you'll lean on an assistant?" And JJ Redick lost his mind before, before the, uh, game even started.
9:48
He walked out of the press conference a little sensitive about that subject. And, and you were making a great point, I think, the other day, which is we didn't really see anything wrong with that. You're in the playoffs.
9:56
Like, what else are you gonna do if you're the Lakers? It's really your best, it's really your only strategy here. [laughs] And anyway, he way overcompensated for it- Yes... yesterday in the first quarter.
10:05
It's like mass substitutions including, including Max Kleber, who hadn't played since January. I, he's been injured basically the whole year. You might...
10:14
I, Max Kleber, he's been a part of playoffs for several, several years for the Dallas Mavericks, a familiar name for NBA fans out there. But oh boy, at his age, it, it doesn't really answer the size problem too much.
10:28
Yes, he's the, a bigger guy you could put out on the court [laughs], but he's, he's barely played, and he's at, like, what? He hadn't practiced or had one practice with the Lakers?
10:37
Uh, so yes, uh, Redick, uh, completely, uh, overcompensating, going too far the other way. It was bad. Uh, that's it. Goodbye Lakers. One, two, three, Cancun. Um, LeBron looked old. He looked tired. Yeah. He did.
10:50
Supposed alleged face of the NBA per Wyatt Tomchek. LeBron looked very tired. Uh- Nice shot. [laughs] He- From, from the back [laughs] It was, it was, it was bad second half.
11:02
I mean, like, well, the Lakers started to get the calls too. Like, I never like- Oh, the l-... to be that guy. Oh. But the second half, the whistles started to go their way on everything.
11:12
I mean, count me as the millionth person to say this, but good God, LeBron, really? Every time it's like you, you're, you're dying on the court. Is that what's happening right here?
11:19
I, I forget the tweet or who texted me this. Sorry, but it, the, a great, great tweet I saw of, like, this is the same LeBron James we all said could play tight end in the NFL when he went- That's right...
11:28
when he went down like a sack of bricks on that one hit. [laughs] Yeah. Hey, man. Ah. It's 40. But- Yeah, it was tough to watch that part... um, T-Wolves go on.
11:38
They'll play the winner of the, uh, Rockets-Warriors series, which is, of course, yet to be determined. Two games tonight. We'll see if we have plays. I do, by the way, in one of them.
11:46
And, uh, the tennis play of the day as well. Coming up, Numbers Game, V- the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
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12:08
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12:13
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12:26
Uh, this is a great, uh, tweet from Eric Biggio, our buddy who works over there at, uh, Caesars William Hill. He does have a clarification. I forgot about this, right? So DraftKings did March, April, most wins.
12:38
Circa did March, April, March/April. Remember there was, like, five games, unless you were the Dodgers and Cubs, then you had, like, seven games in March before, uh, before the month of April. Uh,
12:48
William Hill Caesars only did April for the first, for the first go-round of this. So for them, it wasn't a dead heat. For them, the Mets won it outright.
12:57
So thank you, uh, Eric Biggio, just a quick PSA, we had most wins for April only, so the Mets were the only winner in our shop, and yes, you and the ANG listeners did do that to our Padres price.
13:06
Over 30% of tickets written on the Padres. Whew. Wow. [laughs] So let's go. That's a lot. That's a lot. By the way, the Padres do not start playing baseball today on May 1st. They wait till tomorrow.
13:18
Should probably point that out as well. [laughs] So we, there will be teams ahead of us after today. Maybe check back in, like it is not- Yeah...
13:23
like you brought it up, yes, I would expect, like Circa will be down, right? I can almost guarantee you- Yes... as soon as we get first pitch- Circa will be down... of that first game, Circa will be down.
13:32
DraftKings might let it hang around- Maybe... for a while. Yeah. You never know. So worth noting on that. Never know. Uh, Zach Cohen joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
13:41
He is a VSiN senior editor, part of the glue that holds this whole entire operation together. How you doing, Zach? Betting on X, by the way. I'm doing well. How about you? Uh, we're doing very well.
13:51
T- betting on X, your Twitter, uh, handle. Pardon me for stepping on you there.
13:55
Uh, before we go any f- way, w- any further on this, do you have a Kentucky Derby horse that you're betting on, or do you steer clear of this? I don't.
14:02
I mean, I should because my dad's a big horse guy and I, he probably is really disappointed that I'm not into horses, but I do not have one. Okay. Just checking. Um, so- Your dad actually called me last night.
14:11
He is disappointed. [laughs] Just, just in general. In general. So. In general, he's very dis- You don't happen to have a brother who's a pharmacist by any chance, do you? [laughs] Nothing like that? No.
14:20
No, nothing like that. He's, he is disappointed though. Yeah. Well, it's common thread with all of us. Uh, okay. To, uh, Madrid tennis, do you have anything in Madrid left today? Uh, yes.
14:32
So I have Coco right now plus one and a half sets and a little bit on the money line. I, I just kind of have thought that Iga's looked, you know, beatable so far. Uh, obviously there's been some, some big wins.
14:42
I think that she's started to get a lot closer to the clay court Iga that we, you know, we want heading into the French Open, because I did end up jumping on her at plus money odds to win that tournament.
14:51
But I do think, you know, dropping sets against Keys, against Schneider, like she's looking a little bit vulnerable, and I do think that Coco, when she gets on these heater, heaters, you really wanna back her.
15:00
Obviously she's a player that I have looked to fade a lot in the past, but when she is serving well and when she is hitting the forehand with confidence, she's really, really tough to beat.
15:08
So I just thought it was a really good number to get on her when she's beat, uh, Iga twice in a row. Great semifinals today. Coco against Iga, Svitolina against Sabalenka. Again, I'm on Svitolina.
15:18
Well, I feel like I've heard from both of you guys most of the season a little bit of a fade of Coco. Are, are we turning around on Coco a bit here- We might be... in general? We might be. We might be? Okay. All right.
15:26
Though I- Something to monitor... though, and I'm sure Zach will admit this, clay is, you know, a little different right here- Mm...
15:32
than, than it would be on other surfaces, uh, when you go up against the likes of Iga, so we'll see. We'll see. I don't know. Yeah. Uh, and this is a faster clay.
15:39
We're, we're crescendoing to the slower c- clay as well, so it only gets, uh, harder- Yeah... for here for the Cocos of the world. Um, against someone like Iga, let me point that out. Okay.
15:48
To the National Basketball Association. By the way, we were talking about the, uh, VSiN Killer Sports Challenge. Uh, the VSiN Killer Sports NBA Playoff Challenge, I mentioned Kelly is in third.
15:58
Look at the sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear. Zach Cohen, 11 and 8, right after that in fifth place. Let's go, Zach. Well done. You had two winners yesterday?
16:08
Yeah, I had the Timberwolves last night like everybody else did, and then I had the, uh, oh s- oh, God, I already forgot who played in the first game. [laughs] Rockets and Rockets. But I, I did have two winners.
16:17
Rockets, yes. Yes, yes. I had the Rockets. [laughs] Uh, let's start with that one. Game six back in, uh, back in San Francisco on Friday night.
16:24
Warriors four and a half point favorites trying to close out the Rockets, otherwise it's game seven back in Houston. Any thoughts on that game first? Yeah. I kinda think that Houston's getting a few too many points.
16:35
I, I do think there's a world in which the Warriors win a really close game. I just kinda think that the Rockets have played really well defensively all series, which is what we've expected.
16:44
We've been waiting on them to kinda start making some shots, and now Fred VanVleet has started to get himself going.
16:49
I think Sengun has figured out how to score in the post in this series, so I do think that Houston is playing a little bit better offensively, uh, and can compete with this Warriors team.
16:58
I'm not sure what that means going forward.
16:59
I think they dug a, a little bit too much of a hole at 3-1, but I, I do think that we could potentially see a game seven here, and maybe that's where the Warriors' experience helps them.
17:08
But I do think the loser of, I think the winner of this series ends up losing to the Timberwolves pretty easily. Really? Uh, exact- you've been on the Timberwolves all the way through. Yeah. You've been Mr.
17:16
Timberwolves on this. It, to, to me, and, and you'll tell me where I'm wrong here, the Rockets on paper should beat the Warriors every time too, right?
17:23
The size advantage is such, and we see it in the rebounding totals every game. They should be crushing them. But the Warriors figure, have figured out a way thus far. Uh, the T-Wolves will have the same advantage, right?
17:32
Size will be the big difference there as well, and the only question becomes can the Warriors figure out a way out of that, assuming they get by the Rockets, which is a big assumption.
17:41
Yeah, I think that the Timberwolves have the same advantage in terms of size, like length and athleticism, but I also think that they have a lot more shot-making than Houston does.
17:48
I just think, you know, there's nobody like Anthony Edwards on Houston that you could roll the ball out to- For sure... and say, "Go get us a bucket," and I don't think there's even anybody quite like a Julius Randle.
17:56
I think that if, you know, if they had him on the Houston right now, that would help them.
18:00
I just think that there's gonna be a little bit too much of that in that series, especially when, you know, Steph's a little bit banged up.
18:06
Uh, the Timberwolves have a few guys they could throw on him as well, you know, the way that the Rockets can.
18:10
And I do think that, you know, Minnesota is just really, really deep, and not just deep with, like, decent players. They are deep with very good proven playoff players.
18:18
Like, those three guys that come off the bench, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dante DiVicenzo, Naz Reid, those guys could be starting on a lot of different teams, and all of them can contribute in the postseason.
18:27
You have the T-Wolves to win the West, correct? Yes, I have the Timberwolves to win the West t- uh, twice actually.
18:33
I took it 20 to one and 33 to one And I would imagine there's nothing you've seen so far that would dissuade, that would, you know, take away from your belief in them against the Thunder.
18:43
No, I mean, I took this hoping to hedge when they do face the Thunder, and h- hoping that, like, the number's good enough where I can make, you know, money either way. But I, I'm not gonna hedge in the second round.
18:53
I think that they're going to get there and face the Thunder. I don't want you to hedge in the next round either. I wanna see you s- I want s- you to see it through. Uh, what about tonight? We have a pair of games.
19:01
Um, the Knicks look to close out the Pistons, but it's back in Detroit for game six. Pistons one and a half point favorites. Um, and then, uh, it is game six in Los Angeles, the Nuggets up three to two on the Clippers.
19:15
Clippers trying to stave off defeat as well. They're six and a half point favorites. What do you have tonight? I, I have the Pistons money line.
19:22
I, I said this to Kelly, like I, I've seen a lot of things that I think the Knicks could do that, that would help them win this series. I just don't think that Thibs is going to do them.
19:29
I think, you know, obviously everybody wants Brunson and KAT to run a lot more pick and rolls, and to just get KAT involved more in general. Like when he has Tobias Harris on him, he should be posting up.
19:39
When, you know, Jalen Duren is there g- def- guarding on the perimeter, Brunson should be blowing by him, and then, you know, looking for whatever advantages that they can create. They are not doing that.
19:47
They are still relying on that Brunson hero ball, and he's banged up right now.
19:51
They are kind of taking, you know, this Pistons defense that is 10th in the league, and really not, you know, hurting their weaknesses in any way. So I think that that's not going to work the rest of the series.
20:01
And Detroit has also figured New York out o- on the offensive end, where I don't think the Pistons really should be able to do that.
20:06
I think, you know, the Pistons have a lot outside of Cade Cunningham that you can rely on on a nightly basis, but the Knicks are allowing them to do it by, you know, making life easy on Tobias Harris.
20:15
They're not guarding that Jalen Duren pick and roll very well. And Thompson is just floating along the baseline dunking everything because the Knicks are falling asleep off the ball.
20:23
I don't think that's going to change the rest of the series. The only thing about that, that criticism of Thibodeau and, and having like KAT do pick and rolls, I don't know that KAT wants to do that. It's possible.
20:34
I mean, yeah, it, it's tough you, to ask a player like that to screen a lot. But I do think that, you know, a lot of it would be pick and pops. Like he doesn't have to go, you know, get into the mud really.
20:43
But they do need to run more with him. Like they're just kind of wasting him out there.
20:46
The fact that he and Tobias Harris have kind of been a wash as the number two options in this series has kind of been why I think the Pistons have, you know, outplayed the Knicks for most of it.
20:55
Pacers-Cavaliers is the only, uh, conference semifinal that we have established. Uh, we mentioned this yesterday, Cavaliers were about a minus 450 favorite. It's ticked up a little bit.
21:03
It's inching towards a $5 favorite. Pacers, uh, plus 375 on the comeback. Um, any notion on betting the Pacers at that price, or are you just all about the Cavs here? I like the Pacers plus two and a half games.
21:19
I saw that around minus 150. I, I just think that there's not as much that separates these two as most people do.
21:25
I know Cleveland looked about as good as you could possibly look against Miami, and I said it maybe to you and Kelly, like I was really impressed with Kenny Atkinson.
21:33
I, I think Erik Spoelstra is as good as it gets when it comes b- to game by game adjustments in the playoffs. Atkinson did a better job than him. They got better as that series went on.
21:41
But I do think that the Pacers, you know, dating back to December, have been a top seven or so team on both offensive and defensive rating. I don't really see why the Cavaliers would blow them out.
21:51
I know that this is a really explosive offensive team, but I like the way that Indiana's defended over the last four or five months, and I think that they're going to be able to score on this Cavaliers defense.
22:00
Cavaliers-Celtics potential Eastern Conference Finals, who are you backing? I would take the Celtics. I mean, I thought that Boston is going...
22:08
They went against a really good Orlando defense and kind of came out of it in an impressive way.
22:13
I know that that Magic offense was a disaster, but I think that's the type of series that makes you stronger moving forward. Zach, appreciate it, man. Good luck with all the bets. Thank you. Zach Cohen, everybody.
22:23
Betting on X on Twitter, senior editor. By the way, do you have a, uh, do you have a golf first round leader bet that you're, uh- Oh... sweating here? Oh, let me check in on that, Gil. Uh, oh man, bad timing.
22:34
Sammy Valimaki, I do have at three under par. He is one off the lead. What's your number? 80 to one. Just a casual 80 to one. I got a comment on this series price when we come back. Okay.
22:46
We'll do that, and Mike Somich on the Derby next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:01
Whether you're placing your first bet or you've been playing the ponies for years, VSiN's Kentucky Derby betting guide has everything you need to get on he- uh, get ahead rather, on Derby day.
23:09
Inside the guide, you find a clear breakdown of how to bet on horse racing. Great for beginners. Love that.
23:14
Detailed previews of both the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks, and best bets from top racing experts to help serious bettors cash in. The guide is yours with a VSiN Pro subscription. Start today for just 9.99.
23:24
Get your first 30 days of VSiN Pro, including the Derby guide, daily best bets, exclusive betting splits, and more. Sign up now at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Trivia question for you, uh, Kelly. 17.
23:39
What's that? 17's the answer. But go ahead. What, the answer to what? To your trivia question. Oh. [laughs] I was like, "What?" Um, here's a, uh, here's a trivia question. What regular numbers game host
23:52
was once a part owner of a Derby horse? A horse that participated in the Derby. A numbers game host? No, no, a numbers game guest. Pardon me. What regular guest, did I say host? Yeah.
24:03
[laughs] What regular guest of a numbers game, that would be a good one. Uh, what regular guest of a numbers game has actually attended the Derby as an owner? Who is it? You ever have Jason Worth on? No.
24:14
It was 13- Brian Ortega [laughs] It was 13 years ago. No, but Brian Ortega, I ran into Brian Ortega yesterday. His family's big in the horse racing business, yeah.
24:21
I ran into Brian Ortega on the, on the, the crosswalk between the Cosmo and Crystals. Oh, well, it's two men out on the town in Vegas every night. It's gonna happen time to time.
24:30
By the way, in the mid- in the, in the middle of summer, that is the single hottest point of Las Vegas, that crosswalk. Little trivia. That doesn't surprise me actually.
24:38
Crosswalk between the, uh, the Cosmo and, and Crystals. Single hottest point. It wasn't hot yesterday. But I ran into Ortega. He's going to the Derby Good for him... producer of one of those- Oh, yeah.
24:47
I don't think, I don't think he's here today, so that's must be why... he's, his fam- his, uh, parents are coming up from Arizona. They're picking him up, and they're both going to the Derby.
24:53
Yeah, I- his- All three of them... I believe his father is involved in, in, in ownership of some horses. Well, see, I said, I asked him that, and he was like, "No, we just bought tickets."
25:02
I, I thought he was lying to me. I thought the man was lying to my face. I think he's, I think he's downplaying it a bit. Anyway, do you have an answer to the question? Oh, no, not at all. Joe Peta.
25:10
Joe- Oh, should've known. Joe Peta, who, uh, was a part owner of, uh, El Padrino. RIP El Padrino. Okay. By the way, El Padrino no longer with us, but, uh, that was 13 years ago.
25:21
Mike Salmiche joins us to talk Derby right now. This is his time of year, everybody. You can follow him on Twitter at salmobom18. Do we have that? No? Nope. Nope, we don't. Uh, Mike Salmiche, uh- [laughs]...
25:32
salmobom18 on Twitter. He, of course, is a co-host of Ready Set Bet, and he does all kinds of horse racing shows. Remind us when the horse racing show that you do is every day.
25:42
Uh, so on Friday, every Friday we have VSiN At The Track: Road To The Kentucky Derby. It's a, a live to YouTube show at 2:15 Eastern, 11:15 Pacific.
25:52
Uh, this Friday we're gonna talk all about Saturday's card, the races that we're expecting to bet, uh, the Kentucky Derby, obviously.
25:58
But during the breaks, which are live on the YouTube channel, we'll also talk about our best bets on Friday, so make sure you tune in live over at VSiN Live on YouTube, 2:15 Eastern.
26:07
And then on Saturday at 4:00 Eastern, 1:00 Pacific, uh, Aaron Haltermann and I will have a special VSiN At The Track, which will be on Sirius XM channel 158, on all the VSiN apps, uh, including the VSiN Watch app, as well as YouTube TV, Roku, and then Mad Dog Sports Radio as well, from 4:00 PM to 8:00 PM Eastern, taking you up to the Kentucky Derby and then through it to break it down.
26:27
Wow, we don't even have time to talk about it. That's, uh, that is his entire schedule. Geez. [laughs] Salmiche, busy man. It, it's, it's a mouthful. You, you keep- It's a lot. No trivia questions, please.
26:36
[laughs] You, you keep saying 2:15 PM and 11:15 the whole time we've been saying 2:10 and 11:10. Have we been lying that you c- that you're not on?
26:44
No, it was supposed to be 2:10, but then we pushed it back to 2:15- Okay... 'cause it's easier with guests to do, like, 2:45 versus- Makes sense... do a 2:40, and so it, it's all over the place.
26:52
But if you're there at 2:15, you'll catch the whole show, I promise. I like the on the break conversations.
26:56
We got to experience that for our last Long Shots, uh, taping that went live on YouTube because you, you gotta tape a show, but then the breaks are, are live still on YouTube. Oh, yeah.
27:04
So it's like people are wa- wa- get, they, you get a nice behind the scenes look at how a show operates. Yeah. Wyatt almost assassinated me on one of the previous breaks on the, on this show. [laughs] It was amazing.
27:14
Um, no he didn't. Um, Wyatt's mad at me. Okay, so let's go to the Derby itself.
27:20
Let us start from, and let's do it from a, l- as Denzel Washington said in the movie Philadelphia, let's, let's explain it to us like I'm a two-year-old here.
27:27
How would you bet this if you're a novice who maybe bets on sports but is not familiar with betting horse racing? Walk us through what you're gonna do. So the easiest thing to do, just bet someone to win.
27:38
Very, your horse has to cross the line first. That's the most simple bet that you can make in horse racing, and this specific race is a great race to do it.
27:45
The last four year, five years we've seen a horse at least 8 to 1 or better win the Kentucky Derby. We saw Rich Strike win at 80 to 1 a couple years back. Last year it was Mystic Dan at 15 to 1.
27:55
The year before, Mayage at 18 to 1. So you're going to get great win prices here if you try to avoid your favorite, and this year our favorite's going to be Journalism, who, uh, 3 to 1 on the morning line.
28:05
We've actually seen that float up, so we already have money flowing into the Kentucky Derby win pool. Right now, Journalism's sitting right around that 4 to 1 number.
28:13
Uh, Sand Man is right now your second choice at 5 to 1. That's the number 17 horse, and that was the trivia question Kelly was answering. The post that's never won the Kentucky Derby- [laughs]... is the 17 post, Kelly.
28:23
There he is. So good job. See? Way to go. Way to answer the trivia question without being asked. Thanks, Mike. Yeah. He's like Kreskin. You know, hey, hey. Take that, Holmes. Sometimes you're just on a heater, Kelly.
28:30
[laughs] Uh, so the, the 17 gonna take quite a bit of money here. I would not bet Sand Man because of that public money. You're gonna get an underlay on him.
28:38
Uh, for me, the 18, Sovereignty, is the horse I'm gonna be betting to win. So f- I'm just gonna put a win ticket on number 18, Sovereignty. Ooh.
28:44
Right now, 12 to 1 on the, uh, on the odds board even though we're showing that six to, five to one morning line. This is the horse, this horse that's getting ignored.
28:52
Uh, Sovereignty won at Churchill Downs last year as a two-year-old over this dirt course.
28:57
He f- was very good on debut in Florida this year, third race off the layoff, all reasons you should expect Sovereignty to improve. And it's going to be a very, very fast pace.
29:07
That means they're gonna run super fast early, and the horses coming from the back are gonna have an advantage, and Sovereignty one of those horses that's a closer. Sovereignty. "I'm not gonna just be ignored."
29:16
That's what Sovereignty is saying. What movie is that from, Kelly? No, I don't know. Uh, Fatal Attraction. Sovereignty in the 18th. Can I ask you this about American Promise? Good movie.
29:23
Drew was on, Drew Dinsick was on earlier this week. Uh, he's all about American Promise. We were seeing some rumors yesterday on the old Twitter machine that American Promise might not go. What's that all about?
29:36
Uh, American Promise hasn't looked the best in the morning. Um, so we'll, we'll see if we end up having American Promise in the gate.
29:43
If American Promise scratches out, uh, you're going to get, uh, you're going to get Ba- Bieza, the 21 horse who draws in, and there's gonna be a lot of talk about Bieza, who ran second to Journalism in the San Anita Derby.
29:54
I, I will be using Bieza if Bieza does end up drawing in in that 21 post. I'll be on the deep dive a little bit later, Gil. I will talk Drew off of American Promise. Oh, wow. That's not, don't bet American Promise.
30:04
Not a good horse to bet. Wow. Just gonna talk Drew off of American Promise. Another tease. Okay, for, for the more sophisticated horse crowd, how are you betting this otherwise?
30:15
So I like betting the Kentucky Derby superfecta. It is essentially the, the Holy Grail of betting in horse racing. Uh, it's a dollar minimum bet, so you're spending, uh, $1 per combination.
30:26
Superfecta means the first four horses have to be in order.
30:29
Uh, I wrote an article about this in the Kentucky Derby guide, so I have my, my small budget, medium budget, and large budget superfecta listed in the guide if you wanna go check that out.
30:38
The average payout over the last 10 years for a $1 superfecta has been $51,000 for the $1 bet. So I'm, I'm gonna take a shot here. I'm gonna use my lotto ticket on this one.
30:50
If you are looking for a, uh, a cheaper superfecta to bet- And this is, this'll be a little bit confusing, but I'll walk you through it here.
30:56
You play a $1 superfecta, 8-18 with 8-10-18 with 3-8-10-14-18 with 3-8-10-14-18. That'll cost you $24. And what that means- You got that, Kelly? You got that? [laughs] Yeah. What that means is- No...
31:13
the eight or the 18 has to win the race, the eight, 10, or 18 has to finish second, and then the three, eight, 10, 14, or 18 have to finish third or fourth.
31:22
And it's a, a more sophisticated bet, but it pays out a lot of money every single year. Okay. Well, that means- Sounds like a lock. [laughs] [laughs] All right, rapid fire NBA, what are you betting in the NBA?
31:37
Uh, give me both unders tonight, under 213, uh, in the, the Nuggets-Clippers, under 212 and a half in the, uh, the Detroit and, uh, Knicks game.
31:46
Uh, the Pistons-Knicks, you, you got the Knicks who are missing or have two of their better players injured. Pistons are gonna try and make this a, a battle, uh, a rock fight really underneath.
31:54
I think this game goes under easily. And then this is the actually the highest total we've seen from Nuggets-Clippers since game two.
31:59
Uh, another game where the Clippers, after that defensive mess in game four, or game five, I'm sorry, are gonna come back and, and play well. So I like the under both those games. Give me a couple dogs in hockey as well.
32:09
The Wild, uh, game six at home against the Vegas Golden Knights. They've actually outplayed Vegas in this series. I think the Wild get it done, force a game seven. Uh, I think the Kings force a game seven.
32:17
They've also outplayed the Oilers in this series, so give me them plus 140 tonight. And then I think the Avs force a game seven at home as well. I'll lay the goal in a half with the Avs and take plus 140 there as well.
32:27
So under in the two basketball games, uh, Wild plus 140, Kings plus 140, and the Avalanche minus one and a half, plus 140 in the NHL.
32:34
So in the three hockey zones, so the easy way to remember it, both unders in the NBA and three teams to stave off elimination in hockey. The one that you're staying away from is Toronto and Ottawa.
32:44
That also is a, uh, potential elimination game, and the other way to look at that is the Leafs are trying to prevent Ottawa from coming back from three to nothing to three to three, which obviously would then put them on the cusp of some history.
32:58
You don't want any part of that game tonight. I, I don't want any part of that game tonight. I don't know how Toronto's gonna respond to the pressure, which is only building every single game that you see this.
33:06
Toronto is a storied franchise that has just had bad juju in the playoffs year after year.
33:12
I- if they go back [laughs] 3-3 to Toronto, I, the, the amount, it's an elephant on their back when they go back home into that arena.
33:18
So I, I don't want any piece of it 'cause I don't know how Toronto's gonna respond to the pressure tonight.
33:22
A lot of folks in Ontario, a lot of folks in Toronto listen to this show, uh, through Game Plus, and I know that the pressure, the pressure is massive on that hockey team for sure.
33:31
Haven't won the Cup since 1967 famously. Mike, sovereignty it is. Thank you, sir. Have a good one, guys. Somobom18. Crack next.
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