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May 21, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | May 21, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | May 21, 2025
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33:51
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story. They always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
This is Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. 150izzle. This is Gil Alexander. That's Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Hey.
0:23
How you doing, man? Doing great. Uh, I was, someone did ask me what channel number we were on Sirius yesterday. Yeah, yeah.
0:29
And I like, I had a, I had a, a moment where I was like, "Oh my God, Gil says this every single day. I know this. I remember it finally." I actually d- I actually don't say it every day. Oh, you don't?
0:38
I say it once in a blue moon, I think. Oh, there, there. Yeah. I, I got it eventually- Yeah... but I was like, I blanked for a second. I was like, "This isn't good." Oh. Oh, I say 158 every day. Yes.
0:45
Yes, I don't, I thought you meant you were about to say 150izzle or something like that. Man, I'm like, I, I, I kind of wonder sometimes why people- Yeah...
0:51
need the exact channel number, 'cause I feel like when you cycle through, at least for, for me, when I cycle through Sirius, it's just the channel names. Like, I'm not really getting numbers.
0:59
So someone did drop the question on me like, "Hey, what number are you guys?" Oh, you gotta know the number. Yeah, yeah. You gots to know it. It's a gots to know situation. I recovered. Uh, good. Glad, glad you're here.
1:08
Glad you made it. Nice shirt, by the way. Is that new? Thanks, man. No, no. Okay. Very old, actually. You having trouble that your, all your shirts are bigger than your size now?
1:14
Oh my g- this one I'm wearing right now is massive. Yeah. I'm like, uh- That's what I say. Yeah, right. You're swallowing it. I hope there's not a strong wind. It might blow away.
1:20
[laughs] On the show today, well, listen here, uh, folks, this is a Wednesday.
1:24
Now, I know on Wednesdays you're like, "Well, Steve Fezzik's not gonna show up today," but yet he is, 'cause his, uh, schedule is different summertime. So we're having him, uh, Wednesday this week, Wednesday next week.
1:35
After that, uh, I don't know. We'll see.
1:37
But, uh, Steve Fezzik, usually the, uh, the author of Fezzik Fridays, here today in hour number two to talk about all things on his mind, and he's got a bunch of stuff he wants to talk about.
1:46
Plus he's got bets in multiple sports. We'll talk about, uh, all of those things. Kelly with a few words on the Charles Schwab Challenge.
1:54
You're, you're not, you, you were telling me yesterday you don't have much on this, is what you said. Yeah, a little bit lighter bet, bet event. Okay. But yeah, I still got some in.
2:00
Jason Weingarten under a cloud of smoke. Uh, we'll talk to him. He loves the idea of flag football in the Olympics. I don't know what his problem is, but he loves it.
2:07
Uh, JVT, our, uh, NBA senior analyst, co-host of Money Moves, he'll be with us to talk, uh, National Basketball Association as the conference finals began last night with a, uh, what's the opposite of a bang?
2:19
[laughs] A whimper? Yeah, a whimper. A whimper. Uh, Will Hill with all of his bets, MLB, NBA, and more. And, um, let us begin.
2:27
Before we get into last night's game, can we just talk about this, that we have not, as of this moment, and Kelly is frantically searching the old Twitter right now, but as of this moment, we do not have a vote on the tush push yet.
2:38
We do not have one. It may yet get banned, but we d- we don't know that yet. Uh, the Detroit Lions did pull off the table their proposal for new and different seating in the NFL.
2:50
Apparently they decided, uh, this probably won't go through, or I don't know, what they w- they made a, uh, a sort of assessment of their chances of, of, of this, uh, success.
2:59
I don't know why the Lions were so intent on having seating changed, uh, in the, uh, NFL playoffs, but that one is tabled till after this season. So that one goes by the wayside for now.
3:10
But as far as the tush push, we do not know.
3:12
I also just wanna say one thing about the tush push again, Kelly, because I, I feel like this is getting lost, and it bothers me when I keep hearing the same thing over and over again.
3:21
The, the cool, the too cool for school thing to say about the tush push, right, is, "Oh man, if you don't like it, you gotta stop it." Right? That's, that's everybody's thing. Yeah. Okay. Listen.
3:32
Yes, there is some validity to that. Yes, that, that, the, this thing is allowed.
3:37
Good on the Philadelphia Eagles and to the, and, and the Buffalo Bills to some extent, but good on the Eagles for using it to such great success.
3:46
But I don't wanna diminish the counterargument as, you know, not having some gravitas to it, 'cause there is something to it. Um, one, they talk about player safety.
3:57
Now, I agree with you, for the people who are on the Eagles' side of things who are like, "Hey, we, we figured out something that we do better than everybody else. Too bad for everybody else."
4:07
Um, the counterarguments are player safety. Now, I admit there is not a bunch of data to support- I, mean, that's the thing... there isn't, that, that is not a good counterargument, I think. [laughs] Right, yeah.
4:17
Okay, okay. But there are a couple other arguments.
4:20
One is, and this is a little f- this is a little better right to me, but also kind of flimsy, which is, it is aesthetically unpleasing, slash it is not a football play, slash it doesn't require football skill. Hmm.
4:37
It's a rugby play. That's argument two, which is also kind of, you know, subjective. Right.
4:43
The third argument to me is the one that actually does hold water, and people who are in the, "Oh, if you don't like it, just stop it," camp, you have to use that voice, by the way, when you say it,
4:53
they, they casually don't mention this one, which is that defensive players are not allowed to push other defensive players into the line.
5:01
But o- but on the tush push, the offense is, "Oh yeah, sure, push anybody you want." That is a competitive imbalance that the g- that the folks who want this banned ought to be stressing more than the other stuff.
5:13
That is a legitimate argument to me. Yeah. I, no, I don't have a problem with that. Uh, just to, just to, just to clean a couple things up of where we are at.
5:21
So Schefter tw- did tweet a couple hours ago, vote expected today. Uh- And we thought tomo- we thought yesterday at first, yeah... we thought yesterday. Yeah. Expected today.
5:31
Um, to enact the ban, of course, need 24 of the 32 NFL teams. I also see that, uh, we have, uh, Jason Kelce in attendance for this. [laughs] Uh, I swear to... This is, like, becoming a thing. Like, to represent- It's-...
5:45
the tush push. So Jason Kelce wants everybody to know he's there. Hey, this is incredible. It's- Jason Kelce is there to fight for the tush push, apparently. That is from Tom Pelissero.
5:53
It's like, it's like the Westgate president who used to work for gaming showing up at my hearing. "Just to let you know, I'm here." It's bizarre. I, okay, so to follow up, I agree with you on the pushing thing, okay?
6:02
I also thought- Yeah... caught Dan Orlovsky talking about this yesterday, and then I was kicking around with Danny Higgins, our, uh, great, uh, associate producer back there.
6:10
Before the show we were talking a little b- little bit about this. Them changing the language of the rule actually has me more concerned. Like, I wish they would've just kept it to the tush push.
6:20
Oh, what you're referring to, what Kelly's referring to is the Packers yesterday, it was reported, changed the wording. They, they- They said not just from the beginning of a snap- Mm-hmm... at any point in the play.
6:30
And what was the other change they made? They- They eliminated some language also Well, you can't, I mean, just you cannot be pulling, pushing a ball carrier at any time.
6:38
Sorry, so Orlovsky brought up a great highlight example of how this could really be changing a lot more of the game than we realize, and he had brought up, like, an Adrian Peterson run from back in the day, right?
6:49
Bursts through at, like, the 20-yard line. Bursts through, he's going in for, going into the end zone, gets held up at, like, the five-yard line, right? First guy hits him on the defense. Another defender comes over.
6:59
Well, what do we see? We see the offensive lineman come and push- That's right... Adrian Peterson into the end zone. Yes, we do.
7:04
So if you don't allow that anymore, what's gonna happen is the defenders are gonna be able to just hack at the ball all day long.
7:11
[laughs] So, like, I, I, like, he pointed this out, and I was like, "Wait, this is a great point. Like, this could completely change the game in an unintended consequence." That's a great point, too.
7:22
I, I just, I, I, the more I heard about, you know, folks just going into this lazy, bottom-of-the-barrel, lowest-common-denominator counter, "Oh, if you don't like it," it's like, okay, let, let's, let's be objective about this, right?
7:34
I, I think you're right.
7:36
I think the, the pro tush push folks are right about certain things, but the anti are right about the whole thing about you can, you can't push on defense, uh, to your, you know, separate from your point.
7:46
They can't, they can't. They're not allowed to do that. Right, right. And if you're, if you can offensively, that is a bit of an imbalance.
7:51
By the way, a lot of people are gonna dismiss the aes- the aesthetically pleasing, it's not a football skill part of things as being subjective. There is kinda something to that to me, too.
8:00
Like, at some point, it's not that fun to watch.
8:04
Like, would you rather watch someone throwing the ball 80 yards downfield or on a short yardage play, like, showing just, you know, speed around the corner, that kind of thing, rather than a rugby scrum?
8:13
So anyway, we'll see w- how that goes. Not to, [laughs] not to belabor that anymore- The, the other one, and I sh-... but that was, that was stuck in my craw this morning.
8:19
Well, the other, the other part about this, and I should know the answer before I bring this up, but, like, are, are we talking about enacting this for this year?
8:25
Like, this is now a very quick turnaround for a team like the Philadelphia Eagles that utilizes this in their offense. Hmm. Eagles were downplaying it yesterday. They're like, "Whatever, whatever happens."
8:34
They were saying that publicly. I, I mean, and I think there is a betting translation to this, right?
8:39
Like, if you're looking at Saquon Barkley's t- you know, season-long touchdown props, like, okay, now the over's got a little bit more to it, right? Because you're not gonna be getting as many- Yeah...
8:49
sneaks at the goal line and stuff like that. 100%. It's gonna be a straight handoff to Saquon. 100%, and maybe you don't think the Eagles will be as successful at short yardage.
8:56
Maybe that, that has a, a macro, uh, impact for you on Eagles bets or thoughts on Eagles bets moving forward. Uh, the NBA, uh, conference finals began last night out west.
9:07
OKC takes down the, uh, the Minnesota Timberwolves, uh, by, o- on the strength of a 70 to 40 second half. Outscored the T-Wolves 70 to 40 in the second half. They win it 114 to 88.
9:22
That 26-point margin was the biggest margin of the game. It wasn't quite as big of a blowout as the final score will have you indicate, but certainly the second half was.
9:32
Uh, T-Wolves actually jumped out to an eight to nothing lead in the first 70 seconds of the game. They actually then led by nine, 47 to 38.
9:41
What do we talk about, Kelly, with all these, uh, these Sugar Ray Leonard, Marvin Hagler end-of-round steals? Yeah. Somehow it was only 48-44 at halftime, though. Randle had 20.
9:51
Julius Randle had 20 in the first half on five of six shooting from behind the arc, six of eight overall. SGA was only, only had 11 points on 13 of 13 shooting, uh, from the field.
10:03
Defense and points off turnovers keep you in it, right? T-Wolves had 10 three-point field goals made in the first half. Thunder only had three made,
10:11
and then the third quarter happened, and OKC had themselves a 10 to nothing run that put 'em up 66-60 with 4:19 to go in the quarter. Then they extended it to 11 on the 17 to two run, that extended run.
10:22
They led by 10 at the end of the third. Then it got to 14 with seven minutes left. I don't know. There was a whole bunch, and it just kept going up and up, and OKC wins this going away.
10:32
The total doesn't even come close to the total. We'll get to the contest implications of this with Fezzik later 'cause I, I wasn't gonna bet anything, and the total on the contest was 215.
10:42
I'm like, "Well, I have to, I have to play the over on the contest." That total got steamed, so I ended up betting it small, but I didn't play the under on the contest. I know I sat here yesterday- Yeah...
10:50
talking about it. I, I got scared off by the steam. It was getting steamed up all day long.
10:55
This, it, it, it, it sparks a whole 'nother conversation about bookmaking and w- how books could actually manipulate bettors, um, but that's a whole 'nother subject. But anyway- Manipulated me pretty well.
11:05
[laughs] Manipulated me in the contest. Um, absolutely, that's the whole point. And so, and I just wanna say this 'cause w- we'll go to break here, but I didn't think OKC even played well, and they end up crushing 'em.
11:17
They didn't, Gil. I mean, it, it is... Okay, the Thunder now in this playoffs averaging 25.3 points off of turnovers, the most by any team in a postseason since 1997. They're, they're just, they're forcing turnovers.
11:32
They get out and run and score on you. They don't even have to play that well in the half court. The T-Wolves from behind the arc, 15 of 51. I mean, Th- Thunder turned them into a crappy version of the Celtics.
11:43
[laughs] The Celtics on their worst night. We'll come back. We'll discuss this more. Will Hill will join us, all his bets next right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN.
11:51
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Don't forget to check out the Sharp Plays unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros. Check 'em out, sharpplays.com.
12:12
We get tweets of betting the books. I just wanna read a few of these. This is from, uh, this is from Sh- let's see, Shrek McPhee, "Any thoughts on cross-sport parlays coming up soon?
12:21
Example, Scottie US Open, Iga Roland Garros, 12 to 1." You know how much I love Iga, but it's tough right now. Now, if she won this, I would not be surprised, right?
12:33
'Cause it's her surface, and she's won four of them, for God sakes. But mental blocks are mental blocks. I don't know if I could bet that. I mean, just overall thoughts o- on cross-sport parlays? They're- Oh, love 'em...
12:44
they're, they're fun. Yeah. They, they ca- and they can be profitable and great. Yeah. But I just, you know, don't go crazy with it. Well, some of, some of these I've been hearing lately are ridiculous. Yeah. Yeah.
12:54
Scuba- You like tying things into the football season? Yes, correct. Yeah, I don't know if I'd be doing that, or week one, yeah.
12:58
S- Scuba Scott, "Shout out to Kelly for using two words that I learned for the first time during my six-year run of elected public service. Those are unintended consequences.
13:05
I brought forward legislation that I thought would be great, and I got quickly voted down. Unintended consequences." That's your thing? Okay. Matthew Mayberry. Say that about the tush push.
13:14
Uh, "Absolutely hate watching these guys draw fouls. Will is spot on, though Brunson is by far the worst. He tries to make the refs think he got fouled more than score." Oh, more than trying to score, I guess he is.
13:24
"Almost every time he has the ball." This is, it's, it's a lot of Jalen Brunson, uh, hate on the show this morning.
13:30
You know who I think of as, as the worst, was the worst, was Trae Young, how he used to back up into players. Yeah, that's, that has been a rule that has- Yes...
13:37
now been established to stop that, although they haven't done a great job- Right... I would say, of fully enforcing that, but- Daring refs to call it. Um, and then one more here.
13:46
Scola, "Did I just hear Kelly follow up the, uh, the r- wiener races with a straight face Bobbitt reference, or was that not intentional?" Yeah, Phil Bobbitt, he's on the show tomorrow.
13:55
Phil, oh, they thought you meant another Bobbitt, I think. Yeah. Yeah. Phil Bobbitt is on the show tomorrow.
13:59
Ladies and gentlemen, he's the co-host of Money Moves, which, uh, follows us each and every day here on the network, Monday through Friday, along with- Mm... Stormy Bonatony.
14:06
He's also our NBA senior handicapper, and he's kind enough to join us in studio at an ungodly hour. It's Jonathan Vontobel, everybody. How you doing, man? Uh, I'm good. I'm good.
14:15
Uh, I was out and about, so, you know, I decided I might as well just come to work. You know what I mean? Like, there's no point in going back home.
14:20
[laughs] Uh, and, uh, the Angels are the hottest team in baseball, so everything's good. And the Angels are the hottest team in baseball. Yeah. Well, quite literally. Quite literally. Yeah, right?
14:28
Longest- Five game-winning streak-... longest streak... tied with the Phillies, yeah. Yeah. Then do you think this will amount to anything? Absolutely not.
14:32
[laughs] That's what [laughs] that's a, that's an appropriate follow-up question and answer, I think.
14:36
Um, okay, what about this, the whole free throw mer- well, let me ask this first before we get into free throw merchanting stuff. Mm.
14:42
Was there anything you saw last night that leads you to believe that the T-Wolves can make adjustments to get a different result- Yeah... moving forward? I think there's a couple of things.
14:53
You know, it's, it's easy to say, um, but shoot the ball better would be, like, number one. 15- Yeah... of 51 from behind the arc. 15 from 51. Yeah.
15:01
I, I think the more cl- telling metric, though, is ESPN Stats and Info had this, I believe they shot around 30% on open looks, right? A little bit less than that.
15:09
So again, you generated open looks, you just didn't get them, and it was a pretty good amount. I think it was floating around 20. I was- What was your, in the, what was your, your stat, Kelly? I think it was 39 I saw.
15:16
Okay. Yeah. Of wide op- wide open attempts that they had total, so they didn't convert. Here we go. I got it right here. Yeah, you're right, 11 of 39, uh- Hoo... on open attempts. Yeah.
15:22
So, you know, you should be better than that on those looks. Make shots is your advice. I, I think they made it, right. Yes. Yeah.
15:27
Well, and I think they, they made a point on the broadcast, they pointed out one time, and I don't know observationally if you guys saw this, it seemed like they had, like, six threes that, like, rattled out of the rim.
15:35
I, dude. It was weird. [laughs] As someone who had the over in the contest- Yeah... I absolutely noticed this. Yes. So it was so odd. Like- Yeah... so in other words, so I think you could probably do that.
15:44
But I do think they deserve some criticism, and I actually thought Tim Bontemps of ESPN made a great comp. Um, and you, this might ring well with you because you're a big Warriors guy.
15:53
Go back to game one of that series against Golden State Warriors.
15:57
Shots didn't really fall for Minnesota, but they also weren't really doing well within four feet of the basket, and the rest of that series, they killed Golden State. Yeah.
16:05
Getting to the rim, getting points in the paint. In this game here, they only had 12 shots within four feet of the basket according to the cleaning of the glass. That's insane. That's incredible. Yes.
16:13
That's it, 12 shots. Over a full basketball game. Yes. Like, you can't have that happen. Anthony Edwards, for some odd reason, maybe it was a tweak of the ankle or whatever it was, he was very passive.
16:21
I think in the game he only took 12 shot attempts. Mm-hmm. I think that's his lowest in the postseason, maybe even ever, and you're talking about a single game, but it's a very low number for him.
16:30
So I think there's three clear adjustments that you can really make that would make you feel a little bit more confident, 'cause here's the thing, guys. OKC still wasn't really great on offense- No... in that game.
16:39
Much of their offense was supplemented by their transition offense through steals. If you look at cleaning the glasses, those are- Which, which we know they can keep up. Right. Right? Yeah.
16:47
Like, that's, they can sustain this. This is what they do. Right. Well, and, and Minnesota also turns it over, right? Right. Like, that's, that's the other part of the problem.
16:53
It's one of the pieces of the equation that I brought up when we talked about it with Stormy, which was y- if you're going to lose this series, it's going to be supplementing the Thunder offense with these turnovers and easy run outs.
17:03
They have over 50 points off turnovers in the last two games, the Oklahoma City Thunder.
17:09
They, they've been dominant i- in that regard, so you can't give them free possessions, and I think those are the easy adjustments to rate, right?
17:14
Making open shots is not easy, 'cause that's kind of random once it leaves your hand.
17:18
But attacking the rim more, forcing the issue there, not turning the ball over as much and giving them opportunities, and Ant being more aggressive. I think those things can help.
17:26
Uh, T-Wolves once again are gonna be seven and a... Well, not, not going to be, they are seven-and-a-half point dogs for game two- Yeah... tomorrow night. The total down to 214. And remember, it got steamed up.
17:37
What'd it end up, 219 and a half or something yesterday? Yeah. Yeah, yeah. I saw 219. Um- 219 and a half? Wow... I feel like I wanna play the over. Yeah. Again. I, I, so I'm with you.
17:46
Like, I used the over in the contest- Yeah... and, and thought that that was the play. Obviously, I think we were getting a little too, it was like 215 and a half. We, we were getting points. Yeah.
17:52
And it was like, it ended up 219 and a half. You had to play it. Yeah. It was, it was almost like almost you had to, right? Um, but I would agree with you.
17:57
I mean, look, the, I think this is gonna be a series where it's gonna be relatively quick. The Thunder are gonna wanna get up and down the floor.
18:03
I think the Wolves are athletic enough that they can acquiesce and play to that pace. Um, the Thunder are gonna be able to score quick, as we talked about.
18:08
The steals are gonna be there for them, and they usually turn that into points. And the Timberwolves are a better shooting team than what we saw.
18:14
So if you kind of get all of that coming together, I would assume that you're still, like I would agree with what the market was. Now, all the way up to 219 and a half, right?
18:22
Like that's, you could probably quibble with that.
18:24
But essentially going from what one original number was at the open, 213 and a half and betting that up, I, I think it's a little, a little bit closer to like 217, 217 and a half for the total here.
18:33
And if I know JVT, I'm gonna guess here, if I know you, you have no issue with the fr- with this supposed free throw merchanting thing that everybody's throwing around. No, not...
18:41
I think you can, uh, I think with anything, like, uh, there is nuance, right? Like, can I point to like four or five fr- like foul calls in that game where it's like, dude, guys, like what are we doing? Absolutely.
18:50
But I think a vast majority of the fouls that Shai draws is, um, are legitimate. I think it's part of the game. I thought that there was a k- Look, he plays the game differently and so games are gonna get called.
19:01
I think you can quibble with some of the calls he gets. You could probably cut into it. But guess what? If you remove all of his free throws from the game yesterday, guess who still loses? Yeah. The Timberwolves. Wow.
19:10
So, like, i- it is an issue, but I do think, like, it's not as big as we make it out to be. I didn't know Ant was harboring all this resentment though. I, that was new to me last night. Yeah, right. Yeah.
19:19
He seems a little, little ticked off by it. Yeah, well, I mean, push the, push the issue though, right? Like- Yeah... again, it goes back to what we talked about like the beginning of that Warriors series.
19:27
You're a better, more physical team. Ant didn't have, I don't think he had any, or I think he only had one attempt in the restricted area in that game. There was one, yeah. One, yeah.
19:34
And, and that was when he tried to like decapitate a dude- [laughs]... and miss the dunk. Like you've gotta also force the issue there too, dude. Yeah. He scored zero points in the fourth quarter, Ant. Yep. Ant did.
19:42
I, I mean, honestly, I think that's the, I, I, I think we're blowing this out of proportion a little bit of the, of the, the, the, uh, foul hunting from, uh, SGI.
19:51
If you wanna argue the other side, like Chris Finch has been doing all playoffs- Yeah... long, I'm okay with that.
19:56
If you wanna argue there's too much fouling going on by the Oklahoma City defense that's not getting called- Right...
20:02
I actually think that's more of a thing because there's a very fine line, as we all know, between good defense in the NBA- Mm-hmm...
20:08
especially on the perimeter, and some hand-swatting fouling that's going on there that's just getting ignored. Yeah. So I think there's two things, right? First off, the, the comp has been made and I agree with it.
20:17
The Thunder are playing like the Sea- the, the old Seahawks Legion of Boom, right? The Sea- the Legion of Boom would commit holding on every play. Mm.
20:23
And they would tell you, they would essentially dare the refs- Dare 'em. Dare them... call it every time, bro. Yeah. And unless it was absolutely egregious, the refs would kind of let it go.
20:29
Doesn't take away from the greatness of the Seahawks, but they would push that envelope there.
20:33
I think the other, uh, talk about officiating, which I don't know if we're talking about enough, what annoys me watching that yesterday, for two rounds in a million playoff games, you let these dudes play rugby, right?
20:44
Right. And, and then in game one of the Western Conference finals, we're calling it like a regular season game almost. And that to me, I think, is the bigger issue.
20:51
You've let these guys go through such physical play through the first two rounds, and they're probably expecting that they can do what they were doing through the first two rounds, and then all of a sudden it's like foul, foul, foul, foul.
21:01
Yeah. And that to me, I think, is a bigger issue. It's gotta be consistent with the way that you have called it throughout this postseason. Side note, Brandon Browner of the Legion of Bl- uh, Legion of Doom- Mm...
21:10
in jail for a very long time. I did not know that either till the other day. I did not know that. Yeah. Uh, Knicks and Pacers tonight, four and a half point spread. Any play on game one? Any play on the series?
21:20
Nah, so I bet the series over, uh, five and a half games and minus 165. Uh, I thought that was a fair way to do it.
21:24
I think Knicks in seven was, i- in the article I wrote, uh, that was the, uh, the angle that I took, uh, for a pick. But the actual bet, I think we're gonna have a long series.
21:32
The, the key word that I use for the series overall, uh, is sustainability.
21:36
If you look at the shot quality metrics, if you look at the shooting, if you look at all of these things for Indiana, it would scream to you that they can't keep doing this, right?
21:44
The Breaking Bad, he can't keep getting away with this. But postseasons are inherently a very small sample size, so maybe they can. Like maybe they can just continue- Maybe they can... to shoot out of their gourds.
21:52
Knem Hard, 29% in three-point range, shooting 50% in the postseason, all those sort of things. I don't think though that's really gonna work.
21:58
I think their bench scoring is good enough and deep enough and better than what New York has that that ultimately is gonna help extend this series out. But my best bet for the series was over five and a half games.
22:07
Over five and a half games. Yes, over five and a half games minus 165. What do you lay on that? Minus 165. W- what do you see, JVT, biggest single advantage one team has over the other in this series?
22:15
I, I think it's gonna be bench scoring for, um, Indiana, and I think it's talent for New York. As much as that is hard to quantify, they are a much ta- more talented team.
22:23
Yeah, I th- I think you've heard a lot about- Yeah... Karl-Anthony Towns needing, should have a big series. Yeah. I agree with that. I just question the consistency with him. Yep.
22:31
The pace that the Pacers have, no pun intended, isn't gonna bother the Knicks? I don't know, 'cause I also thought this is the finals. Like, by the time we get to the end of the series, that might slow down considerably.
22:40
Yeah. Hmm. Okay. JVT, everybody. He'll be on Money Moves about, uh, hour 20 minutes from now with Stormy. Check it out right here at VSIN. Jason Weingarten on the other side. Coming right back.
22:49
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23:30
Ladies and gentlemen, uh, typically this will be Fezzik Fridays, but you're in a time vortex. It's Wednesday, and it's time for Steve Fezzik on the radio.
23:39
[upbeat music] Whether it's at the sportsbook or anywhere else in the casino, he's always helping us find an edge. It's time for Fezzik. [laughs] They just cut off the Fridays. [laughs] It's time for Fezzik.
23:53
And it is Steve Fezzik, the only back-to-back champion of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day. Good morning, sir.
23:59
You know, I'm trying to say something in Spanish, but I've forgotten everything except for today's what, veinte y uno? Uh, yes. 21st. It is the- Yeah... uh, 21st of May, yes. Mayo. Do you speak Spanish, Steve?
24:10
Or you just- Uh- No, not really... Estaban es muy estúpido en espanol. [laughs] Okay. Gotcha. Y ingles. [laughs] Es- and strangely in English as well. [laughs] Uh, okay.
24:21
Uh, first things first, uh, you're wearing black, so it's, it, it's slimming. So you are a svelte, svelte weight. You are trying to get to 199, and you are only a few pounds shy. I'm at 202. There you go.
24:33
And pre-production we were talking about, "Oh, you'll probably be 201 tomorrow." [laughs] No, no. You've never- There is zero chance I'll be 201... you've never met this guy before.
24:42
He is a maniac when he puts his mind to something. Uh, before we get into anything else, let us talk about this, uh, VSiN Killer Sports NBA Contest.
24:50
Uh, last night, uh, obviously only one NBA game, the T-Wolves were seven-and-a-half-point dogs against the Thunder. The total in the contest was 215. I think the game closed at 219 and a half.
25:04
It was, like, four and a half points higher. So someone like me, and I knew someone like Stevie, there was no choice, but you had to play the over in the contest at 215.
25:16
I wasn't gonna play anything, but when I saw the number I'm like, "Well, I mean, you're crazy if you don't play this," and we all ended up losing. Yeah, so contest basic strategy, it doesn't always work.
25:24
Or if, if it did, the same people would, would win every contest- Yes... you know, with, y- you know, employing that strategy. But, uh, yeah, had a little meltdown as I'm watching the game.
25:34
[laughs] You know, and I'm watching it, and I'm like, "Th- this is a s- this is stupid. This game's going way under." Yes, so- Yeah...
25:40
and the- Well, the, the s- the only saving grace is that everybody else, uh, who was in contention took the T-Wolves plus the points. So here are the current standings.
25:48
Zach Cohen and Steve Fezzik, your co-leaders at 19 and 12 with seven games left, uh, throughout the, uh, remainder, the balance of the, uh, NBA playoffs. Doug Kazerian was the big winner yesterday.
26:00
Did he change his name? Uh, yeah, we had a little typo there. [laughs] Whoops. Uh, Doug, Doug was the big winner by not playing anything yesterday, so he gains a, a half game on everybody.
26:08
He's in third place at 17 and 13. And then me and Kelly Bidlea, my, uh, my cohort here on The Numbers Game, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, 16, 14, and one.
26:18
We are just outside of the money now, but we both took a hit yesterday 'cause Kelly took the, uh, T-Wolves plus the points. Uh, Alex Christensen and Kyle Aikens, also big winners by not playing anything yesterday.
26:28
So, and Alex is really in f- in fourth place, quite frankly. Uh, so those are the folks in contention. Now, now a broader point can be made by this, right? So I wasn't gonna play anything. I saw the 215 in the contest.
26:42
I'm like, "Well, I mean, I have no choice," right? It is my duty to play this. You felt the same way, and this triggered something in your brain about a, a broader point about bookmaking in general.
26:53
Yes, that bookmakers know nothing, all right? Everyone's like, "Oh, well, they, Vegas knows." You always hear that Vegas knows. Vegas knows nothing. How do they know? You hear people say that all the time, yeah.
27:04
The, the best evidence that I can give is that it's not that no one knows nothing.
27:09
Someone knows something, but not the bookmakers, because if they did, here we have an example of, like, Oklahoma City's playing Minnesota, and book one has the line at seven, and book two has the line at seven, and book three has the line at seven.
27:22
Everyone's at seven, all right? So think about it. You got plus 110 working for you as a bookmaker. You could go to six and a half. You could go to seven and a half. Heck, you could go to six. You could go to eight,
27:33
and you're gonna get so much action, all the action you want. And, like, think about that total. It closed 219 and a half. If you had just dealt to 218, it was 215 earlier, right? Mm-hmm.
27:43
If you dealt 218, you would get a bazillion of dollars on over 218, but nobody does it. And why don't they do it? Because some bookmakers have tried, and they have just gotten annihilated, you know?
27:57
So basically, the bookmakers' opinions are like, "I'm just gonna deal the market because I've learned. I've put my hand on the hot stove." They are, they are risk-averse is what you're saying.
28:07
W- w- w- not only are they w- are they risk-averse, they lack the ability to be able to win doing that. They've learned the hard way- Mm-hmm... where they basically probably, when they deal their opinion, they,
28:20
they oftentimes get games wrong, and then their bosses, you're right, absolutely scream at them, "How'd we lose $100,000 on that game?" All right. Here's the real truth serum question, though.
28:31
Let's say we live in a bizarro world where Steve Fezzik was actually the bookmaker. Do you think you would actually behave as you are suggesting right now? Absolutely. You would? 100%.
28:40
I mean, the, like, like, it shocks me that there are not more books that don't do that. And, like, I'll, I'll use an example. So I, I loved, it's easier on a derivative obviously, but, like, Texas, deGrom i- is styling.
28:53
Okay, so deGrom is, his last six starts he's given up one run. So first five innings, first three innings, um, deGrom was a modest favorite for Texas. Boom, I woulda just c- I would not have allowed the bettors to bet.
29:04
I would've said, "We're making Texas 20 cents higher than the marketplace this morning, and I don't want any Texas money whatsoever first five," because I, I really love Texas, and I would do that, and a lot of books, you know, they don't do that on any game.
29:20
Uh, you were speaking of manipulation. This is a little bit different, but I'll tell you what, uh, you, you were sorta suggesting might have been, uh, some better manipulation.
29:28
I don't know if that's the right word, but yesterday in the WNBA, the Atlanta Dream beat the, uh, the Indiana Fever, Caitlin Clark's Indiana Fever, 91 to 90, uh, and they did so at the end of the game when Aliyah Boston only hit one of two free throws, uh, to put the Fever up one, but then you got two made free throws by Rhyne Howard to give the Dream the win.
29:53
That held up. Uh, Fever could not, uh, get a game-winning bucket, so the Dream win at 91-90, but the first half total caught your attention.
30:00
Yeah, so the first half total was right around 86, and my guys, the Hitman says, "Oh, we want over," right? Bet over, right? Bet over 86, and so it goes up to, like, 86 and a half. I come back later in the day.
30:13
What's this? It's down to 85 and a half. There's even some 85s popping up. I'm like, "That's odd." He played over 86. He never plays a bad number.
30:22
And then I see later, I go back to the odds screen after the game tipped off, it closed 87, the first half did.
30:28
So there was this unusual period of time where this total inexplicably dropped down to 85, and I truly believe someone manipulated the market. They, they invested in some shark books.
30:39
Oh, you believe someone purposely bet the under? They phonied it up- Yeah... by betting under when they really liked over, and then when it hit 85, they went nuts playing over 85 and over 85 and a half.
30:50
And, you know, Billy Walters famously has talked about, like- Yes... phonying up this game. I think someone phonied up that total and then it lands 86, so they fiddle in the middle. You're, you're speculating that.
31:00
You don't know that for a fact. I don't know for a fact.
31:01
You're speculating, but, but the re- and the reason you're speculating is because, like, i- in the Billy Walters case, everybody, well, it's Billy Walters, so he can, you know, he knows what he's doing. He's...
31:08
So you, what you are saying is Hitman, your guy, knows his stuff so much, I mean, you have to respect the handicapper to come to that conclusion, right? Sure.
31:17
You respect him so much that, in your opinion, someone had to, to, to go under, you would have had to have manipulated and then gone the other way.
31:25
Or they had information about, like, the point guard being injured or something that Hitman may not have known. Yeah. So that certainly could have been possible, yes.
31:31
Uh, what's this blackjack thing you came, uh, stalking in the studio with before this?
31:35
Oh, I saw, I saw a fellow playing, and he was making one of the most egregious mistakes in blackjack that you won't see in any books, and specifically, he was doubling down for less. All right?
31:44
So people, some people may not know that when you double down, uh, let's say you have an ace four against a dealer four, you don't have to double for the full amount.
31:52
If you want to double for half, you know, if you bet $200, you can double for 100. And in this ca- i- in, in a case like the ace four, it's an enormous mistake.
32:02
Same thing, like, if you double, like, an 11 against a seven and you double for less, it's a really big mistake. And the reason it's a big mistake is that you wanna, uh, you have a positive expectation.
32:11
You wanna get as much money out as possible, but you are actually hurting your chance of winning that hand when you double down, 'cause what happens if you get an ace or you get a two?
32:20
Well, now you have to stop, all right? So you never wanna put just a small amount out there and double, and now you've eschewed your, your opportunity to take a fourth card. So, um, bottom line is don't double for less.
32:32
You observed this because he was playing at your table or- Yes, yes... you were just looking over someone's shoulder? He was playing at my table. Oh. We were playing in, in a high limits salon.
32:39
Now, what does, what does Steve Fezzik do in that situation? Do you, A, not say a damn word, B, open your mouth and tell this person what a dumbo he is because Twitter Fezzik, it just infests you at that moment?
32:52
Uh, the answer, the correct answer is C, ask him, "Can I cover the r- the rest of the amount- Oh... with my own money?" But- Little passive-aggression there... but it, well, not passive-aggressive, just grab an EV.
33:03
I'm just- Yeah... grab an expectation. But, like, the, I don't do it because the casino doesn't like it. So, okay, it was option C then. Yeah. Okay. Option C is- Interesting...
33:13
but, but option C for an advantage player, that's, like, clearly, like... And you, and you s- you see this every now and then, someone runs out of money.
33:19
They get a pair of eights, and they're like, "Oh, you know, what do I do?" And you're like, "Oh, well, here we go. Let's go, partners."
33:24
Relating this back to our NBA thing from last night, and, uh, Kelly, well, Kelly's here behind the glass, but we'll get his answer to this, I wonder if Kelly not playing his conviction on the under last night was not only because the number was what it was, but also
33:39
that Steve Fezzik was looming, and he knew that you would frown upon that behavior. I wonder. Kelly, we'll ask you that. But contrarian would've been the right play. Well, in retrospect. Yeah.
33:48
Let's get Kelly to answer that on the other side. Numbers game, more with Fezzik.
A Numbers Game
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