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May 22, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 22, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 22, 2024
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44:44
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It is Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Bedell. What's up, party people?
0:21
What's up, man? Live from, uh, Bar Canada at The D here in downtown Las Vegas. Uh, good show today. Will Hill, all his bets, JVT, co-host of VSiN Primetime, and our senior NBA analyst will talk NBA playoffs with us.
0:33
What, what, what happened last night and what will happen tonight, his thoughts. Jason Weingarten from Under a Cloud of Smoke, back from London, England, and the Crawley Town win.
0:41
Uh, and Sam Najad, uh, host and analyst for Monumental Sports Network.
0:45
We'll have him on, and he'll, uh, talk Charles Schwab with us, and, uh, maybe we'll allow him to go off legally, on legal matters, I should say, 'cause he was really upset with the prosecution yesterday in the [laughs] in the Scottie Scheffler case.
0:56
The Scottie Scheffler case. I mean- The fact that it's even a case I didn't even read the full thread. [laughs] Oh, he's, he's mad. He texted it to me, and I was like, "Just pass it on to you."
1:04
I'm like, "Notes for tomorrow." [laughs] Kelly does that a lot. Here, check this out. [laughs] Did you read it? No. Um, okay. We gotta talk about this game first. Oh, so much to say.
1:14
Celtics 133, Pacers 128 in overtime, and the Celtics take a one to nothing lead in the Eastern Conference best of seven finals. Uh, game two will be tomorrow night back at the TD Garden there in, uh, Boston.
1:31
You just take the red line to Park, and then you transfer over to the green line. [laughs] Um, I think, by the way. I might be wrong about that. Um- Just making up things. Hey. No, no, no. It worked well. I like it.
1:39
[laughs] I just remember in the other direction, we would go to Park, and then we'd transfer over to Somerville and Medford. Uh, okay, so here's the thing.
1:46
Um, let, let's go through, let's go through the specifics, and then we'll just go off on some stuff. [laughs] Yeah.
1:51
Celtics went up 12 to nothing to start the game after Mazzulla successfully challenged a goal tending call 35 seconds in. That was a little note. But 12 to nothing Celtics out the gate.
2:00
Uh, but they only led, the Celtics did, by three at the end of the first quarter, 34-31. Obi Toppin, 11 in the first quarter, was great for the Pacers. He was five of six, one of one from behind the arc.
2:10
Uh, the game would be tied by the half, 57 a piece, 59 a piece, 61 a piece, and then 64-64 at the half. Uh, third quarter, Pacers took their first lead right out of the gate.
2:20
They actually went up five, 69-64, but the Celtics immediately retook the lead at 71-69, and Kelly, that's when I got in and made a Pacers money line bet at two, plus 256, N plus six and a half- Okay... at that point.
2:33
Celtics got it, but that was a poorly timed bet because the Celtics got it all the way back to 12- Sure... matching their biggest lead. Actually got it to 13, pardon me, at 90 to 77, with 4:15 left in the quarter.
2:44
But, and I, you know, I've been saying this now on the run-up to this series. You will believe me when I say, at no point did I ever feel the Celtics were gonna run away with this. No.
2:54
I'm like, "Eh, 13, that'll be, that'll go away," and it did. Um, by the end of that quarter, remember that was, that was a 13-point lead with 4:15 left in the quarter.
3:02
By the end of the quarter, it was a 94-93 Celtics by one after a 14 to two Pacers run, that amazing bank three from, uh, Haliburton to end that frame.
3:12
Fourth quarter, Pacers took a 95-94 lead briefly, but they'd fall back down five again, 100 to 95. Then tied it again at 104 a piece on a Turner three.
3:21
Then a Brown and Horford miss led to a Siakam jumper, a Siakam steal, and a Haliburton assist to Siakam r- for a, uh, for a running jam. 108-104 Pacers with 4:33 left. They would not trail again in regulation.
3:34
Sounds like they win, huh? Nope. I-- by the way, the, so down the stretch of that game, huge Naismith three the hard way, huge Haliburton block of a Derrick White shot, a Nemhardt 20-foot step back with 47 seconds left.
3:47
Among the Pacers highlights down the stretch, 117-114 Pacers. Then Tatum a missed three, and then the shenanigans begin.
3:56
An Indiana unforced turnover where Haliburton just was careless with the basketball, bounces off God knows what part of his body. Yeah, it even started with that Tatum missed three. Like Naismith- Yes...
4:05
selled out, sold out for, like, the steal. Yes. Left a wide open three that luckily he missed. Missed it badly. But then Indiana gives it right back. That's the first bad turnover.
4:16
Then a White missed layup and a Tatum missed jumper, and the Celtics foul. So Indiana to inbounds, and Rick Carlisle, which he admits later was his mistake, does not advance the basketball.
4:28
So they're inbounding from the side, not up court, and Siakam's jersey immediately gets pulled by J- by, uh, Brown. JJ Redick says it out loud, no call, no whistle.
4:44
And then it's another Indiana horrible turnover on the Nemhardt inbounds because it caroms off of Siakam out of bounds as he's, like, streaking towards the baseline. No idea why Nemhardt was inbounding.
4:54
No idea why they didn't take a timeout. No idea why he didn't take a timeout once he realized he had nowhere to pass the ball. That's right. It's not like he didn't have timeouts.
5:02
So just over eight seconds left, Boston gets another reprieve. They're down three. They should have lost this two different, three different times already. And here is where I gotta, I gotta stray from everybody else.
5:16
On this show, and I'm only gonna bring this up. People are gonna think I'm, I'm saying it to, like, chest flex or something. I'm just saying it to establish the cred.
5:23
I've talked about fouling up three on this show since the dawn of time, since we've been on the air, and now I think everybody does it.
5:29
Um, so I just say that to say, this is actually one of these times where I was not upset with the Pacers, uh, not fouling down three, and I'll tell you why. It's because of how the play developed.
5:41
Uh, just over eight seconds left, Brown is in the corner, but Siakam wasn't in position on the catch to foul him. And so you can't then just blindly-- either you didn't
5:53
watch how the play developed, you didn't play enough basketball to know that you can't then foul retroactively, or you're just performatively wanting to be outraged about it. But that's the least thing.
6:03
I'm a guy who ha- who, who has the Pacers in seven. I'm very angry at the result of this game, but I wasn't pissed at that. That's not the part I'm upset about. That's the least thing. It's like, okay, sometimes...
6:14
And, and Brown hits the biggest shot of his career. Jaylen Brown does. Sometimes it just happens that way. 117-117. Keep preaching, man. Keep preaching. We're going overtime.
6:24
By the way, at that point, going into overtime, Indiana was three for three from the line. Boston was 17 of 23. Uh, Celtics finally take a lead, 121-120, uh, in overtime. Then Tatum with a careless turnover.
6:36
He just literally throws the ball to the other team. Halliburton fouled behind the arc. He hits all three. Pacers are up by two, 123-121 with 1:46 left in overtime. Then it's all Celtics. Tatum three the hard way.
6:50
Halliburton turnover forced by Jrue Holiday. At least this one was forced. He was awesome.
6:54
Uh, then a Tatum three to put the Celtics up four with 42.8 seconds left, and then Brown stole it from Siakam, and it was Katie bar the door. Celtics win it 133 to 128. 32 Celtics points. I can harp on the free throws.
7:07
Celtics had 30 attempts. Pacers had 10. But the real story was 32 Celtics points off either 21 or 22 Pacers turnovers. Oh my God, I mean, yes. There seems to be some, some, some debate about that.
7:19
So glad you brought this up. We didn't even talk about this. Yeah, so g- I heard both as well. Yeah. I've heard both as well. So, uh, and by the way s- a- and the Celtics 15 of 45 from three.
7:29
What are you doing throwing up 45 threes? Okay, I just have to make this point. Now, now, let me just say, so I split the two end game bets. Um, the plus points, but I lost the money line, obviously. I'm not...
7:41
Whatever about that. Obviously, I have the Pacers in seven, as I talked about, and you wanted...
7:46
Obviously, in the situation you were in, you wanted the Pacers to win that game the three, four, five times they had a chance to win it. So that was really upsetting.
7:55
But I gotta say this again, because I said this last year, and I wanna bring this up, Kelly, and I wanna bring it up respectfully as a handicapping point about the NBA specifically.
8:04
Which is last year, um, let me be clear, I didn't have the Heat to beat the Bucks, but I did have them to beat the Knicks, and I did have them to beat the Celtics, and then I stopped 'cause I knew the, the Nuggets were gonna crush them.
8:15
But the point I made last year stands here now, which is I feel like if you're an NBA hardo, like we call our tennis hardos, I feel like if you're an NBA hardo,
8:27
there is a pitfall in the NBA for handicappers that doesn't exist in other sports, that you can get so wrapped up in the numbers of the regular season that it ends up really potentially hurting you in the playoffs.
8:43
And I'm gonna say this after the Celtics still won that game and the Pacers lost, 'cause I don't wanna always say it, uh, in a favorable position, because I think the process means more than the actual result here.
8:52
But I think the entire run-up to this game and to this series, and I'm not gonna mention any names 'cause it was everybody.
8:58
When I said that I had the Pacers in seven and I had the Pacers as a, as a puncher's chance to win this series, everyone to a man dismissed me summarily. And I tried to be as polite as possible and say, "Are you?"
9:11
The, the willingness to get behind the Celtics over and over is kind of amazing to me, and I just feel like the regular season in the NBA is so much different than the postseason, right?
9:26
The management of 82 games is so different. Now, it was, it was much more stark with the Heat because people understood, oh, they gave their best in the playoffs. They really didn't care in the regular season. Right.
9:35
Right. But I do think the flip side of that is overrating the Celtics is a thing, and now I think after one game, people get that the Pacers can be very competitive in this series.
9:45
By the way, when I said to people after the game yesterday, and I was like, "Oh, as pissed as I am, I think the s- the Pacers get now they can win this," and I got the same thing back of, "Nah, now they're really gonna lose in five."
9:56
Well, maybe you're right. Maybe they'll get swept. Maybe they'll lose in five. That could be the case. But I think the point remains about basketball. Remember with baseball, it's the format. Yeah.
10:04
I think this is all fair. The format, the format- Yeah... incongruence in baseball is the problem. But I just think basketball becomes a different game.
10:12
Yeah, and, and I think really, it, the teams that you're, you're bringing up I think specifically are great examples with it. I, I do. I mean, it's... I mean, you brought it up, 15 for 45.
10:21
A team that relies so heavily on the three. Dude, what are you doing? The thought that, uh, to think that they're never gonna lose a game or any- It, it is, it is a little wild.
10:30
I, I mean, I think they're, they're a great, they're a great team, but, I, yeah, I, I hear. I think it's a great point. The, uh... Can we just go back to the three thing real quick, though? Yes. Oh my gosh.
10:38
You agree with me. Oh, 100. I mean- Yes... I, I'm, I'm in shock today, Gil. I'm in shock over how… W- I, I can't believe the conversations ar- around sports media I'm, I'm waking up to of foul up three.
10:52
As you said, we've been talking about this forever. Well before everybody, I think. Yes. And, and we, uh, we are absolutely on team foul up three. 100%. You had no chance to do it in that situation. No.
11:02
What are we even talking about? No. It was terrible defense on the inbound. They didn't switch, so Siakam got caught up in the screen. They didn't switch. And then Siakam did the right thing. He cannot foul there.
11:13
You have to let the miracle shot- He did a great job. He did a great job of not fouling. Right. Yes. Uh, I mean, the, the two turnovers before that were horrific. Horrific.
11:22
I mean, the, somehow the Halliburton one gets covered up. I mean, he just dribbled the ball down the court and, and lost it off his foot. [sighs] So bad. Like he forgot how to dribble all of a sudden.
11:32
I was like, "What am I watching?" Oh, it's brutal for the Pacers. It's a tough loss. That is a tough loss. We're gonna have a long series, though.
11:40
We're gonna talk about it with, uh, JBT, and of course, the Mavericks and the T'Wolves beginning tonight in the Western Conference Finals.
11:45
That's next with Jonathan Montovel, Numbers Game, VSiN, the Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
12:00
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12:10
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12:19
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12:32
Go there today to claim your 14 months of VSiN Pro for only $199 with promo code ANG. The promo code, folks, is ANG. That gets you two months for free. Those two months coming out of JBT's salary. That's what happened.
12:45
That's right. That's what we heard. That's VSIN.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, uh, JBT about to join us.
12:52
I just wanna say one thing real quick here before we get to John, which is just following up on our conversation in the first segment, the part about the Celtics shooting 45 threes.
13:02
We talk about this in football all the time on guessing lines. What's your betting truth serum? Like, if I have a bet, what do I want the other team to do on fourth down? That's where it usually comes up, right? Hmm.
13:11
Yep. If I'm betting against the Celtics, every time Tatum or Brown, but Tatum specifically, takes it to the rack, I'm like, "Oh, no. This is not gonna go well." Every time he shoots a three, it's a victory. Every time.
13:23
Yeah, no, I hear you. I hear you. Uh, and the other thing is you pointed out, J- Why, why do you think I love, like, Giannis and, and Zion so much? Oh, yeah. It's no thought. Going hard to the rim. Of course.
13:31
How you stopping that? The other thing is, you just mentioned this off air, um, it is official now that Inside the NBA has one more year left on TNT- Yeah... as we know it.
13:42
Ernie Johnson, Ernest Johnson, and crew there with Shaq, Chuckster, and the Jet. And, uh, it's gonna go to NBC. NBC has outbid TNT. Is that the word? NBA finalizing media rights deal with ESPN, NBC, and Amazon.
13:58
And Amazon. That is per Sports Business Journal. Uh, so you'll get, you'll get Roundball Rock with John Tesh again. Here's the thing, though. This, uh, memo just in. Uh, Michael Jordan is not walking through that door.
14:07
Like, '90s basketball is not actually returning. It's just the Roundball Rock. Um- Dun, dun-dun-dun, dun, dun-duh Have you seen the video where he, like, tells it on the ans- he's on, has it on his answering machine?
14:16
He woke up, he dreamt, he dreamt it like McCartney dreamt Yesterday. That's what he [laughs] That's his little story. Yeah, that's right. [laughs] I did, I, I heard that. Yeah.
14:24
Um, anyway, um, the greatest studio show there ever was in any sport, which everybody else tried to mimic but never could capture the chemistry. One more year of it. JBT joins us.
14:34
Jonathan Von Tobel, he's the co-host of VSiN Prime Time, uh, weekdays here at the network. And of course, he's our senior NBA analyst. He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
14:44
How about that game last night, John? Yeah, it's pretty disappointing actually.
14:49
As somebody, and I, I think, Gil, I think at the very least I know, I think you're in on this, but as somebody who's holding Indiana plus two and a half games, would've been really nice, uh, to, to take one of those there.
14:57
And you should have. The, the, the win probability, we can go through it, inbounding up three with the other team under 10 seconds, no timeouts.
15:04
I think since tracking's been a thing, I think the guys at ESPN had this stat. Yeah. Uh, Pacers are the first team to lose that game. So they- [laughs] That's, that's a brutal way to lose that thing, man.
15:12
Yeah, the stat- 90, 97% it said there was their win probability at that point. I would argue it's probably higher. Probably. Yes.
15:18
Yeah, the stat goes back to 1997, but if you hear that at all today, it's what JBT's talking about. That's when they started tracking this stuff. Yes. So it, it goes back even further. [laughs] Ah, it's just...
15:29
A- and, and do you agree, one other thing, Kelly and I did not talk about this before the show, I just sort of go into my rant and then he reacts to it.
15:36
As upset as I was with the Halliburton turnover with just, you know, with, like, 40-some seconds left, and the horrible Carlyle decision not to call timeout or advance the ball and then, you know, uh, Siakam's jersey gets tugged, and Nemhardt throws, and it caroms up, uh, like, that stuff was awful.
15:52
But not fouling up three, I just didn't think the way the play developed that they should have. And I thought Siakam did well not fouling him. Do you agree with that? Yeah, no, I think I would generally...
16:05
Like, that's a tough spot, 'cause then of course you foul, he hits it, then it's an and one opportunity. W- what I kind of quibble with more in that scenario is why even have defenders along the interior?
16:14
You know what I'm saying? Yeah. Like, why, why not just put everybody along the perimeter, two guys in the corner, two guys on the wing, put one guy at the top of the key? They need a three there.
16:20
Like, they don't- they've let them get a two-point shot. Who cares if they do it in that instance? So I, I'm more of... Like, 'cause I'm with you. I think it's easy to just say, "Why don't you foul?"
16:29
Like, LeBron I think tweeted out, like, "That's why I foul up three every time." [laughs] Um, but I think it's, it's easier said than done in that situation.
16:35
For me, I'm just camping my guys out along the perimeter and just going, "Go ahead and take a free bucket inside. We don't care. We're up three with less than 10 seconds left, and I believe you don't have timeouts."
16:45
Like, you go ahead and try or do whatever you need to do, but we're camped out here, and we're gonna be here to defend. I think that for me was the bigger one.
16:51
Strategy-wise, there's no need to put guys along the interior and defend in there. There's no need for it at all. It's a good point. Uh- Gil, we didn't even bring that up in the first segment. LeBron tweeted that. Yeah.
16:59
How did LeBron tweet that? He doesn't think that. There's no way he really thinks that. LeBron, Mr. Foul Up Three. Yeah, okay, buddy. Come on. How are you fouling there without Jaylen Brown getting the shot off?
17:10
Um- Right... last thing on this before we get to the Mavs and the T-Wolves. Celtics are nine-point favorites again in game two tomorrow night. The total's at 224 and a half.
17:18
Are you in the, "Oh, man, Indiana can't possibly bounce back from that kind of defeat" camp, or are you in the, "Oh, Indiana, even though they lost, they are gonna come back in game two and do to the Celtics what their previous playoff opponents did to them in game twos"?
17:35
I mean, I don't know if it's i- identical to game two, but I, I, I don't think you're, you're scared off of Indiana.
17:39
It's not like they don't, they did anything that was completely unsustainable I think in that first game.
17:43
You know, they only shot 35% from three, so it's not like they went out there like Miami did in that game two, right?
17:48
Shot 55% from three and took a game, or what Cleveland did in their game two, which was shoot over 55% from the floor, over 40% from three. Like, they had a really good day at the rim.
17:57
Pascal Siakam had a really good game, as did Tyrese Haliburton.
17:59
But I didn't watch anything, I don't know about you, Gil, but I didn't watch anything last night that told me that Indiana cannot repeat a similar performance and push this team again. So- Absolutely...
18:07
if somebody came into this, right, thinking that, like, I thought they were gonna be pretty competitive in the series, I, I would not be scared off of Indiana in any way, shape, or form after that yesterday.
18:14
Indiana's, uh, series price adjusted to plus 800, eight to one now on if they come back down one to nothing in the East.
18:21
In the West, T-Wolves minus 170 is where the series price has sort of settled in after sort of getting past that, now settling back a little bit. Uh, tonight, T-Wolves favored by four, total's 206 and a half.
18:33
How do you see this, John? So I think for, for a series perspective, well, I, I like Minnesota. And I, you know, full disclosure, I do have this futures ticket on Minnesota.
18:41
But I think even just dropping in with nothing, I, I think that Minnesota's uniquely equipped to kind of handle this matchup.
18:46
One of the things that I think is really underrated about Dallas' win over Oklahoma City is the way their role players carried them through that series.
18:52
Like, Luka Dončić had a good end to the series, but Kyrie Irving was quiet. But guys, Derek Lively, when he was on the floor, the Mavericks outscored the Thunder by 71 points in that series.
19:01
[laughs] You had Derrick Jones Jr. score, shoot 37% from three. You had P.J. Washington give them, what, like 17 and 8 on 47% shooting from three-point range- [laughs]... in that series.
19:11
Tho- those guys really helped them carry them along.
19:14
And I think that when you look at the way that Minnesota can defend, when you have Jaden McDaniels and Anthony Edwards for Kyrie Irving and Luka Dončić, when you've got smart defenders in Mike Conley, where you can put him wherever, but even if he gets switched on, it's a size mismatch, but he can still, of course, defend at a really smart level.
19:28
We know what Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert can do. We know how good your bench can be.
19:32
I think that this is a team that is equipped to do this, and they're not gonna have to help off the defenders, 'cause they're going to trust their guys to hold up in one-on-one situations.
19:39
I think that this is a quieter series for those role players for Dallas. I think that puts a lot more onus on the shoulders of Kyrie Irving and Luka Dončić. You know, I put this in the write-up for the, for the series.
19:48
If you look at it from just an individual statistic basis, the Mavericks were one of the best isolation scoring teams in the NBA in the regular season. Makes sense.
19:55
They have two be- the best isolation scorers in the NBA. The Timberwolves were the second-best isolation defense in the NBA in the regular season. They have a bunch of guys who can hold up in those situations.
20:05
And I think over the course of this series, that lends itself to them winning this thing. So I think they're in a pretty good spot.
20:10
I know that generally, game sevens are like the, or the winners of game sevens are teams that DeMarco would like to play against. But we saw yesterday, right?
20:17
We had a winner of a game seven go in there and cover a number against the Boston Celtics, and this team's gonna be at home. I, I would really just be on the side of Minnesota.
20:24
I like them in the series, and I, I, I kind of think that they have the potential to end this pretty quickly, uh, in five or six games- Oh, wow... if they play to their level on defense. I like that.
20:34
Um, you agree that if the T-wolves win it all, Tim Connelly pulled a fast one over all of us, and he gets to say, "I don't care what y'all said about my Rudy Gobert trade. It did exactly what I thought it would"? Yeah.
20:45
Well, i- isn't that... So that's one of the cooler stories. And not, you know, Rudy Gobert stuff aside, T- uh, Gil, the Tim Connelly was part of the front office that goes and puts together Denver. Yes.
20:54
Denver goes and wins a championship.
20:57
Then he goes to Minnesota and goes, "I'm gonna build a team that's somewhat similar that's gonna be better than that team, beat them, and then maybe compete for an NBA finals once more."
21:04
Like, that's incredible to see what a front office guy can do. But absolutely, and I think that, like, I was somebody, and Kelly knows this, I was in on Gobert since last year and this trade.
21:13
Like, I thought it would work. I had Timberwolves futures and overs last year, and they were punching fire extinguishers, and Kyle Anderson, and each other, and all that kind of stuff.
21:20
But I, I do think that on the surface when you looked at it, this could work. And now all of a sudden you're going, well, heck. I mean, successful in the, the Western Conference finals and who knows?
21:28
But I would agree, like, generally a trade that was mocked, now you gotta look at it and go, holy smokes, this is gonna work for them.
21:33
And by the way, that ignores all the ownership nonsense that they gotta deal with, right? That's right. And everything they're going through. It's insane. Yeah, I think it's the...
21:38
I, I've been saying for a few weeks now, a couple weeks now, it's, it, it would be the biggest collective eating of crow for maybe you aside- Yeah... but for all of us, uh, besides you.
21:48
Uh, last thing, and I want you to give a pause before you answer this. What is the NBA finals matchup that would be most intriguing to you? Oh, I mean, I don't have to pause, but I'll pause anyway.
21:59
[laughs] I think it's Minnesota and Boston. I, I think Minnesota-Boston would be so much fun. I mean, when you talk about the level of defense, the regular season series between these two were absolutely phenomenal.
22:09
Uh, I think that the matchups, being able to see Anthony Edwards go against, like, a Jayson Tatum type, Rudy Gobert and Kristaps Porziņģis, and Karl-Anthony Towns, and all the front courts, all the different machinations, everything that you would see between those two.
22:20
And, and I think good home courts as well. I'd be totally down with that. Yeah. I thought the... Thank you for the performative pause, by the way.
22:25
I, I- [laughs] I thought that that pause might make someone go, "Actually, you know, Minnesota-Indiana or Dallas-Boston," something like that, but apparently not. John- I mean, Indiana-Dallas would be incredible.
22:36
It would be incredible. [laughs] Um, thank you so much, John. Appreciate it. Of course. Anytime. @mejvt for Jonathan Vontobel, co-host of VS Prime Time with Tim Murray, weekdays here at 6:00 PM Eastern.
22:47
Coming back with Sia Nejad on golf next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. This segment is brought to you by ZYN nicotine pouches.
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23:43
Warning, this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Kelly, if I've said it once, I've said it 100 times. Some things in life are spit free, some are hassle free, but it's rare that they're both.
23:53
[laughs] You, you... I can't even count how many times you've said that. That is true. 100, 200, who knows?
24:00
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, you will notice that our next guest never goes to a gym and is not well-groomed at all.
24:05
He's Sia Nejad [laughs], host and analyst for Monumental Sports Network in DC at sianejad, S-I-A N-E-J-A-D, on the Twitter machine, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, he comes to us. How you doing, Sia?
24:16
I'm doing well. I mean, listen, I- it, it feels like we're talking everything right now. We got NFL to talk about, NBA playoffs, NHL, uh, MLB, uh, PGA. Like, I, I feel like people think this is a slow time of year.
24:29
It's not slow at all. No, not at all. I'm in full. You know what else is, uh, in full throat is, uh- Golf legal analysis. And I just- Hmm...
24:37
before you get into anything else, I just, I wanna commend you because, um, Kelly sent me your thread yesterday, your video. First of all, it was s- uh, I just wanna get your...
24:47
'Cause you're, you're an attorney by trade. People should know that. Mm-hmm. And, um, this was a video of Scottie Shef- uh, excuse me, of the prosecution in the Scottie Scheffler matter.
24:58
I can't even call it a case, it's so ridiculous. Uh- Yes... trying to argue with the judge that, like, there shouldn't be a delay here. It was so embarrassing, man.
25:08
It was a classic case of an attorney trying to do all the attorney things while the camera is rolling and while the lights are on.
25:16
And this is, like, what we see, I mean, this is what I saw practicing law for 13 years as a trial attorney.
25:22
I mean, I saw this so many times where attorneys are sometimes out there just to sort of prove n- prove themselves instead of get it right. They, they, they wanna be right instead of get it right.
25:31
And I, I thought this was actually truly embarrassing, especially considering, in my opinion, these charges probably should've been dropped within 48 hours of actually being levied.
25:40
But the, the long and short of it is he was arguing against a motion to continue the arraignment by a couple of weeks, mostly due to a scheduling conflict that defense counsel had.
25:51
These things are so routinely granted that they're almost never in front of a judge, because counsel typically appe- uh, agrees to them beforehand. It was, like, laughable.
26:00
I mean, to the extent motions to continue are not granted, it's usually when you're deep into the case a- and, and the, the delay is causing, causing prejudice to the case, or if it's just, uh, completely unnecessary.
26:12
But in a preliminary matter like this, things like this sh- like, you don't waste the court's time with things like this.
26:18
And the real irony here is he was trying to suggest that, "Hey, we don't wanna s- treat Scottie Scheffler any different than, than the, your, your common everyday citizen," by actually being an antagonist to this motion.
26:29
He was actually treating Scottie Scheffler differently- [laughs] That's right... because the common person would've had this motion to continue granted- Ah... right away.
26:35
And oh, by the way, oh, by the way, Gil, the provision he was arguing, the, the support for his argument was a misplaced provision. It w- it was, it was actually unbelievable.
26:45
The when appropriate provision, both counsel and the judge were like, "Hey, this applies to remote appearances. It doesn't apply to whether the c- defense counsel can have a motion to continue granted."
26:54
So he didn't even have, like, literally a leg to stand on. It was laughable, and it's part of the reason, if I'm being perfectly honest with you, this is a very small illustration.
27:03
'Cause this isn't, at the end of the day, this isn't a big deal as far as the case is concerned. It's an illustration of why I don't practice law anymore. Wow.
27:10
Because of things like this that are so beyond ridiculous and so beyond a waste of people's time, it's just, I, I, at, at a certain point, you, you, you say to yourself, "Do I wanna do this for the rest of my life?"
27:21
And the answer for me was no. I love that. That's very honest. Like, come on. Three minutes of outrage with Siya Nejat. That was awesome. It li- it literally was like the guy was going, he goes, "The sky is not blue."
27:31
And then the defense was like, "What do you mean? You know the sky is blue. It's always blue." He goes, and then he goes to the judge, he's like, "So the sky isn't blue, right?" Like, it's [laughs] just so ridiculous.
27:40
That's right. Uh, all right. Uh, Charles Schwab Challenge, what are you looking for here?
27:44
What's the, uh, course and, uh, in, in terms of what, w- what does the course dictate for what you're looking for from the golfers themselves?
27:52
Well, first of all, speaking of Scottie Scheffler, it dictates that I wanna take Scottie Scheffler, like, out of the market entirely, because he's so good.
27:58
And I do think, you know, this course doesn't necessarily emphasize his strengths. I mean, his strengths are everywhere, if I, if I'm being honest. But,
28:06
you know, you could say that this course, which is a positional, kind of strategic, uh, not a plotter's course, but a strategic course where, where approach play and putting are really gonna come into play, probably around the green a little bit as well, where off the tee is certainly minimized.
28:19
You could make the argument that, well, maybe this isn't the tournament for Scottie Scheffler to win, especially coming off, you know, having a child and, and having this attorney stuff kind of just lingering in his head, uh, each and every day.
28:31
With that said, like, I'm looking for accurate players off the tee. I, I'm looking for guys that are dialed in with their, their mid irons, which I'm sure Kelly is looking for the same thing.
28:40
I'm looking for some around the green play and some, uh, some spike putting. I, I tend to look at putting a little bit more, uh, in cases like this in terms of s- like, saving par, bogey avoidance, things of that nature.
28:52
So yeah, I- I'm looking for guys that, like, are kinda down the board a little bit.
28:55
But I'll say this, in the outright market, I'm betting the market that most books are offering without Scottie Scheffler, so that if Scottie Scheffler wins, my outright's still out of shot.
29:04
Of course, I'm taking a shot with the points there. In other words, you know, a 60 to 1 shot all of a sudden becomes a 45 or a 50 to 1 shot. I'm willing to do that to avoid the Scottie Scheffler scenario.
29:13
How many books are offering that, Siya, generally? Yeah, I would say most of the main books offer it.
29:19
So I mean, like, two of the main, actually three of the sport- all three of the sports books that I use, uh, actually offer that.
29:27
They offer it in different ways where, first of all, some of them will come out with it, like, straight away on Monday. Some will wait until Tuesday for whatever reason.
29:34
And some of them will not only affr- offer the without Scottie Scheffler market, but, but they'll have another option too where they'll, they'll offer it s- without Scottie Scheffler and the other top dogs, like Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth.
29:45
And again, that cuts down the odds considerably. I, I, I don't really delve into those markets, 'cause I do think it's, it's the Scottie Scheffler issue that is the main thing.
29:53
I'm not as worried ab- about Jordan Spieth and Collin Morikawa. But we've come to a point now where last year this wasn't being offered at all, because we didn't have the dominance- Yeah...
30:02
that Scottie Scheffler is showcasing. But books are getting smart to the fact, like, people don't wanna bet the outright market because Scottie Scheffler's plus 400 or less, in this case plus 275.
30:12
They, they don't wanna worry about whether Scottie Scheffler's gonna run away with it on Saturday, and they're not even gonna have a sweat for the last round and a half.
30:18
So they're getting wise to the fact that y- you kinda have to offer this market too. Makes sense. And so ergo, where did you land on the outrights?
30:26
Yeah, I landed again without Scottie Scheffler on Sepp Straka, who missed the cut at the PGA Championship, which, which is fine. I mean, his upside has been showcased plenty over the last couple of months.
30:35
He's shown the ability to take down a tournament. Without Scottie Scheffler i- in the market, I'm getting him at around 35 to 1. Again, I love his ability to spike. He's, he's an accurate driver.
30:44
He can be dialed in on, on approach and with the putting. I like Aaron Rai for the same reasons. He rates out extremely well for everybody. I see Kelly kind of nodding his head.
30:52
Very accurate driver, very good with the mid irons. The around the green and putting is, is okay. I would say it's about field average, but, uh, he has really shown s- shown me something over the last couple of months.
31:04
The finishing positions are there, and he's got some decent course history here as well. Couple of long shots in the outright department, uh, again, without Scottie Scheffler, Doug Ghim and Daniel Berger both at 65 to 1.
31:14
I'll admit the Doug Ghim one is particularly shaky because I just don't think he... W- whether Scottie's in it or not, like, I don't think he has much top two equity. I don't think he has much win equity.
31:23
But I'm starting to see something w- with his game and with the course fit where I'm like, "All right. I can maybe take a dive into to Doug Ghim."
31:29
And Daniel Berger, listen, he was injured for a long time, but the ball striking is back. He's an excellent course fit. His history here is excellent. I'm trying to get him on the upswing.
31:39
So again, without the Scottie Scheffler market, at 65 to 1, a guy that I know has the pedigree to win on this course and has the history that has won on this course, 65 to 1, I think that's super sneaky.
31:50
I'm smiling with the Doug Ghim stuff because just sort of anecdotally l- watching what comes up on models, on golf models from all y'all over time, Doug Ghim has to be the model- No, I, I went on-... the model champion.
32:02
I w- I, uh- [laughs] See, I might've gone on a rant on that on this week's Long Shots- Oh, really?... where I was like, "I..." Like, "I can't do it with Ghim anymore." [laughs] He's al- Yeah... he's up there.
32:10
It doesn't even make that much sense to me this week, like- He shows up at every tournament. Right. It's always... Well, approach is usually the most important stat in golf- Yeah... and he is great with his irons.
32:20
Also, real quick, first round leaders, 'cause that's where you've made your hay, Sia. What do you got there?
32:24
Yeah, and by the way, I'll say, uh, uh, with, with these outrights, I have a lot of them, including Doug Ghim, in the top 40 market, with Aaron Rai, with, uh, with Daniel Berger, some long shots, C.T.
32:33
Pan, Ben Coles in the top 40 market. I got four first round leaders for you. Sepp Straka. These are all morning wave guys, which th- there will be likely an advantage for the morning wave guys, as there usually is.
32:41
Sepp Straka at 50 to 1, Kristian Bezuidenhout at 50 to 1- Bezuidenhout... Austin Eckroat at 50 to 1, and Aaron Rai at 55 to 1. Those are my four. Okay. In top 40s you got Rai, Berger, Ghim, C.T.
32:53
Pan, and Ben Coles as well. Okay. And Ben Coles, five. Yeah. [laughs] Ben Coles, five. Sia, uh, always a pleasure, and thank you for that, uh, legal perspective. And, and honestly, like, I felt it.
33:03
When you said that thing about you just wanted to get out of the profession, uh, from stuff like that, that hit hard. That, that's interesting. Appreciate the honesty.
33:10
Truly, yeah, I mean, truly it's, it's one of many reasons, and I o- I don't want to cast this over every single attorney.
33:16
It's not like every attorney is like this, but it's stuff like this that got me out of the profession. Yeah. Makes sense. Makes total sense. Siya Najad, everybody, @siyanajad, S-I-A N-A-J-A-D. Thank you, sir.
33:27
Appreciate it. Thanks, everybody. Appreciate you. Uh, we'll come back. We'll dive a little more into the Western Conference Finals. A Guardian up- uh, Guardians update, our daily Guardians update.
33:36
Ooh, it's getting interesting. Coming up, Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. It's the Numbers Game.
33:54
Gil Alexander. Coming up, we're gonna talk NFL week one starting quarterback odds. But first, here's Stormy Bodetoni with your Moment of Zyn.
34:02
[upbeat music] This is your betting Moment of Zyn, brought to you by Zyn nicotine pouches. Find your moment of zyn at zyn.com. Stormy Bodetoni here with VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:13
Time to talk defensive rookie of the year in the NFL.
34:16
While Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner didn't end up the first defensive player off the board as expected in this year's draft, the consensus All-American is at the top of the board at 4-1 odds to bring home some rookie hardware to Minnesota.
34:29
It was the Colts, actually, who swung first for defense at pick 15, taking a chance on Liatu Latu out of UCLA, who at one point had to medically retire from football, came back, only to lead the FBS in sacks the last two years.
34:39
Newly minted Eagle Quinyon Mitchell out of Toledo at 11-1 was the only non-Power Five player selected in the first round. Also 11-1, two-time All-American Jared Verse, who landed with the Rams.
34:49
And rounding out the short shots, Dolphins rookie Chop Robinson at 13-1. This has been your daily Moment of Zyn. Learn more about Zyn smoke-free nicotine pouches at zyn.com. Warning, this product contains nicotine.
34:59
Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Back on the Numbers Game, live from Bar Canada at The D. Can I say on air what I said off air?
35:05
My favorite VSiN promo going now is Stormy going through the, the different sports and being like, "And that's why we're here." Mm-hmm. So natural, as if the camera was not rolling. And she does it there again.
35:16
It's fantastic. Stormy, extremely talented. Extremely talented. Uh, we get tweets at Beat in the Book.
35:21
Mark Meltzer, Melts Vegas, uh, "In case you're looking for Gil in July," oh, he's, uh, put up a poster of a, uh, Ja Rule, Fat Joe, Slick Rick, Doug E. Fresh concert. [laughs] I'd like to MC one of these please.
35:33
Thank you. Where's that at? Uh, it is at. Thanks for asking. Ja Rule, come on. I'm, I'm, I'm there in a second. [laughs] Ja Rule. Let's go. Ja Rule. [laughs] Ja Rule. By the way, we get a tweet from, uh, DurbinP24.
35:43
He goes, "Ja Rule has to mess everything up on that card," he said. [laughs] Um, [laughs] man, it's so funny he said that. That's not, that's not like him.
35:50
[laughs] I think I was on a flight once with this g- with this guy who goes, "Is that Ja Rule over there?" I was like, "It's not Ja Rule." Matthew Mayberry, "Hey, Gil, do you like the Pacers in this series?
35:59
I haven't heard you mention it." [laughs] He says, "Actually, LOL, I'm with you. I bet Pacers in seven and Celtics in six." Oh, great. "Love Pacers plus two and a half games as my best bet."
36:09
I'll tell you what I have, what I feel vindicated about already. Remember how I went on the rant about how ESPN ought to do better by the Pacers? Mm-hmm.
36:16
Because they, uh, the whole s- uh, you know, the first of all, the whole run-up where Stephen A.'s like, "New York, stand up," then the pregame show where he's giving Spike Lee a pep talk.
36:25
They're doing an arrival video, for God's sakes, with the players, and then Stephen A Then at halftime, Bob Myers is talking about how OG Anunoby could only go four and a half minutes while the Pacers are killing the Knicks.
36:36
And then down the stretch, Green, Redick, and Doris Burke eulogizing the Knicks as if they've won four championships. Stop it. Well, Tim Legler, do you see this?
36:46
Tim Legler went on with Russillo, and he says, "I've been wanting to talk about the Pacers I can't tell you how many times. I wish we had the video of how many times I wanted to talk about the Pacers this year."
36:55
But he said it wasn't sexy enough. Yeah. How about that? Yeah. Those uncomfortable, uh, meetings in the newsroom. Yeah. All right, this is cool. Um- Sorry, sorry Legs, but good job on that three-point shooting.
37:10
1996 three-point, uh, contest champion. I'm not sure who that is. There we screw up the year. [laughs] Greatest percentage of three-pointers in 1995. I'm not sure who had that one. 95 Bullets, by the way. Webber, Howard,
37:22
Legler, George Murzan. That's just George being George. What a team. Uh, okay. Um, NFL, who's playing quarterback week one? I love these markets. Yeah. Um, team by team. Not every team, obviously some teams are obvious.
37:38
But, um, teams particularly with rookie quarterbacks pose a betting question and, uh, might trigger a bet from you. Let's go through these one by one. These are courtesy of DraftKings. Nice job on them to post this.
37:51
Broncos, Bo Nix minus 425, Jared Stidham plus 450, Zach Wilson 10 to 1. That's their quarterback room, Kelly. Remember, it's a room in a building. [laughs] That's how NFL people talk about it now. In the building.
38:05
That's their quarterback room. That's right, yeah. You're not in the building or in the room. Uh, Bo Nix minus 425. I would not make a bet here because Sean Payton has staking his entire reputation on Bo Nix. Yeah. Yeah.
38:17
I, I think priced correctly though.
38:18
Like, I don't know that I would be s- too much steeper than that though e- like I do think there is a slim chance that he doesn't start week one, but it's very slim, 'cause as you s- as you said [laughs], he's basically staked his whole reputation.
38:31
Yeah, and I'm sure- Where is this team today? And I'm sure Sean Par- Sean Payton won't be arrogant about it the whole way through. I'm sure he won't be at all.
38:36
D- I, there's almost like a part of me that w- like wants to see the Broncos succeed so I can apologize for everything I think about them right now, because oh my God, I think this franchise is gonna be a disaster for the next- [exhales]...
38:48
five, 10 years. Don't get me started. By the way, and for those people who say like, "Sean Payton is such a quarterback whisperer," I'm sorry, besides Drew Brees, can you give me the list? Drew Brees.
38:59
Raiders, Gardner Minshew minus 180, Aidan O'Connell plus 130. Hmm. Um, so there are a couple on here, by the way, that I would love to bet. This one. But this one you would? Who would you bet here? Yeah.
39:14
The, the Raiders just brought in Gardner Minshew. Gardner Minshew is not starting week one for th- Minus 180... for this team?
39:19
After what you saw out of Aidan O'Connell last year, you're rolling it back with Aidan O'Connell week one? I'm gonna tell you the one I wanna bet is the next one. The Vikings, Sam Darnold is minus 155 and D.J.
39:29
McCarthy is plus 120. Now, for those who are like, "Well, it's gotta be D.J. McCarthy," no. Apparently, the Vikings want to do everything to start Sam Darnold barring an injury.
39:42
There is even some weird talk, weird buzz out there, that they have this intention to play Darn- that they would play Darnold the whole year if it went okay. Okay.
39:52
Like game one, I would absolutely bet the minus 155 on Darnold. Of course, injuries could, could crush you here, but barring an injury, I think that's the best bet on the board.
40:01
I think that, that is, so glad you brought it up before we go too crazy on this, 'cause a couple of these I do really love. That is the, that's the big thing, right? Yes. Injuries occur. Yeah.
40:08
If you're betting this right now- Yeah... it is May 22nd. There is a lot of, a lot of practices [laughs], a lot of training camp to come, uh, where these guys can get injured.
40:16
But I'm, like, this is, the Vikings have basically said this is their plan all along. Like, this is why they signed Sam Darnold, right? It w- it was to give McCarthy the time to, to get ready.
40:28
And I, I guess I'd be shocked if it ended, really ended up taking that long [laughs] before McCarthy's in there playing, but week- Yeah, no... but week one.
40:35
But week one, minus 155 doesn't seem like too steep a price to pay there. Th- they've basically told everybody this is the plan. [laughs] Sometimes you have to believe what they're telling you. That, that's, yeah.
40:44
We are going to play Sam Darnold. Okay, that's good enough for me, why not, minus 155. Uh, Patriots, Jacoby Brissett is minus 300, Drake May plus 225.
40:53
I think that the Patriots probably wanna start Jacoby Brissett week one. I think so too. I think this one's properly priced though. Yeah. Like, I do, uh, uh, I think there's a chance.
41:02
A- I mean, if Drake May looks incredible for some reason in training camp, you're not, why, why p- put Brissett out there? Like, you might as well just go right away with May. I don't think it's gonna happen.
41:11
I think it's most likely Brissett starting, like you said, but... And then the biggest favorite of all these, the Seahawks. Geno Smith is minus 600. Sam Howell, acquired from the Washington Commanders, plus 390.
41:25
Matt Brown and I, uh, disagreed on this one, I believe, when he- Oh. Who took the f-... when he was fill- when he was filling in. I was, I, I thought this, it, it was, this one has moved the most. I forget what it was.
41:34
It was like Geno minus 250 or something. Yeah, I was gonna say Geno's a lock here, right? I was like, "Geno, for sure." Yeah.
41:40
I don't wanna misquote Ma- Matt, but I believe Matt was like, "Well, why would they bring in Sam Howell?" Like, you're bringing in Sam Howell. Yeah, but what has Geno done wrong?
41:48
I, I mean, I guess if they're- I mean, I get it, why would they bring in Sam Howell? But then, but now week one...
41:50
I mean, he's had a little bit of a step back last year, but I, I don't think there's any plans to move on from him immediately at least. Well, here's the thing about all of these things.
41:59
So you bring in Sam Howell, and I get the, I get the, the argument of why would you bring in Sam Howell. The problem with this is always like, let's do it in, from a human perspective.
42:07
So if they decided that they wanted to start Sam Howell week one, what happens if Sam Howell plays bad out of the gate? Yeah, no, this is a great point. Right?
42:18
So it's like for- Teams screw themselves up so much- That's right... with this stuff.
42:21
For them it's a much better tact to just, if, if they have the intention, and clearly they have some intention with Sam Howell that they traded for him. If they have the intention to
42:32
elevate him to QB1 at some point if Geno messes up, the way to play it is to start Geno at the beginning and let that happen, right? Right. Correct. So I, I- That, that's the way I would view it too, yes. Yeah.
42:43
So I think Geno Smith. I, so I basically- [laughs] I mean, like, we have seen, we've seen NFL teams do stupider things, right? Of course we have. Like, that makes a lot of sense to me, Gil, but [laughs] Yeah.
42:52
And it's not Pete Carroll anymore, so there's that. Right.
42:55
Um, so basically looking at all these, Broncos, Raiders, Vikings, Patriots, Seahawks, I believe the best bet is Sam Darnold, believe it or not, with the Vikings at minus 155 to start week one.
43:06
If this, if this was available, I'd bet, I'd bet Gardner Minshew and I'd bet Sam Darnold. Yeah. I think your confidence in Minshew is, starting week one, is probably correct as well, minus 180.
43:17
Again, we cannot bet these, but these, so whenever we do stuff, uh, that are, is out of state, and specifically at DraftKings, which we couldn't even if it was in state, we always like to say, "Would we actually bet these or not?"
43:27
This is one of these where we actually would. Yes. In the case of Darnold and Minshew with the Vikings and Raiders specifically. But I do think it's Bo Nix. I think Bo Nix is correct as a $4 favorite.
43:37
I think Jacoby Brissett is correct as a $3 favorite in New England. And I do think Geno's correct as a $6 favorite in Seattle. Injuries, once again, can torpedo all of this. Yes. Yep.
43:46
So please don't come back if somebody breaks a leg and say, "Ah, you were wrong."
43:50
[laughs] I feel like this is one of those, like, hey, I know we complain about, uh, you know, different, different, uh, markets being limited in and stuff like that.
43:57
This is one you probably don't wanna be betting heavily into anyways because of injuries. [laughs] That's, that's right. So, like, we'd be betting them, but yes, I'm not going crazy, uh, crazy.
44:05
But it's fun to talk about. Yeah, I mean, if, if they were, let's say if they were posting an obvious team like the Jets, then they're just posting about an injury, right? Right. Yeah. Correct, correct. Yeah.
44:14
The, a- and what do, I mean, what, what has it been? At least last off-season, I wanna see the off, say the off-season before DraftKings has posted these.
44:21
I don't remember liking [laughs] bets as much as I like these two. I, I- Like, we definitely talked about this last summer... I think you're correct. Yeah. I think you're, I think you're right in that memory.
44:32
Uh, Jason Weingarten's on the other side. All his bets, how his trip to London was. Did he wear a coat and tie? All the burning questions next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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