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May 23, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 23, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 23, 2024
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Transcript
0:00
The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com, Gabe Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, it's a Numbers Game where sports betting lives. It's Gil Alexander.
0:22
It's Kelly Bidlin, live from Bar Canada at The D, all proudly brought to you by DraftKings. How you doing, man? You good? I'm doing perfecto. How are you doing? I am, uh, I am frantically soaking in the French Open draw.
0:34
Yes, you are. [laughs] Uh, Drew Dinsick and I are doing a, uh, podcast here in two hours on the French Open of Beating the Book. And, uh, I haven't gotten to the women's yet, but I, uh, did soak in the men's here.
0:44
So we'll get to that here momentarily, 'cause I have some thoughts here in the first segment, just seeing how the, uh, the quarters have broken down. Here's the thing, and I don't know if this is...
0:54
It, it's akin to golf, but it's not the same thing.
0:56
The reason we're doing the podcast today right after the draw is 'cause we thought about, we're like, "Should we wait till tomorrow and see if the quarter odds come out?"
1:04
But we have no confidence that any of the books will have the quarter numbers out- Yeah... within 24 hours. Hopefully they will, but we just decided let's go with it right after the draw.
1:14
I think you guys are making the right call. Yeah. I, I think you're making the right call. I know it gives you a little bit more to talk about, but you could also- It's also a Friday. Right. Yeah, also a Friday.
1:22
The tournament starts on Sunday. Yes. Yeah, yeah. So, yeah. Uh, we'll get to that. Who could come up with those numbers anyway? Ah, that's fair. You'll have fair prices out on all the quarters. That's right.
1:29
As, as fair price, I have all that's coming up on the, uh, podcast side, and I'll, I'll have my, uh, men's draw comments here in mere minutes. Uh, coming up on the show it is Zack in Crack.
1:38
Zach Cohen will have French Open thoughts. He'll have NBA thoughts. Congratulations to you, Kelly Bidlin, for hitting the Mavericks last night. Thanks, sir.
1:45
And, uh, being one leg up in the Western Conference, uh, finals. Mavericks win 108-105. We'll get to that momentarily. And, uh, Crack, Bill Krakenberger, unscripted, coming up on the show as well.
1:56
Oh, college baseball with Matt Grissom as well. We'll do that. Wanna get that whole format and pods, and he'll explain everything to us.
2:03
Okay, let's start with the Mavericks and Timberwolves before we get to the French Open. Mavericks and Timberwolves last night. Um, let's start with a comment made by the Ant-Man, Anthony Edwards, before this series.
2:14
Quote, "My matchup's gonna be Kyrie, so that's gonna be fun. We're gonna see what I can do versus him." Yeah, probably shouldn't have said that out loud. First quarter, T-Wolves led by as many as nine, 21 to 12.
2:26
Mavs then went on an 11 no- 11 to nothing run to take the lead by two. By the way, every NBA game is a game of runs. This was really a game of runs. 11 to nothing for the Mavs. They take a p- a two point lead, 23 to 21.
2:37
But Minnesota led by six after the first quarter on their own 12 to four run, 33 to 27. Kyrie, 13 points on six of nine shooting, keeping the Mavericks in the game.
2:50
Second quarter, Wolves would lead by as many as nine, but the Mavs finished the quarter with a flourish. And so the T-Wolves led at the half by only three. Kyrie had 24 on 11 of 14 shooting.
3:02
Jaden McDaniels, by the way, 19 at that point for the, uh, T-Wolves, seven of nine from the field. But here was the deal at halftime. Not only should Ant not have said anything, 'cause Kyrie had 24.
3:13
But the Mavs from behind the arc, remember they're down three at the half, they were two of 13 from behind the arc, 15.4%, while the Wolves were 11 of 25. So if you just do the three point scoring, Kelly- Yep...
3:27
at halftime it was 33 to six from behind the arc in favor of the T-Wolves, and they were up three.
3:34
Plus all of those unexpected points, I will say, from, I, I mean, it's also partially the three-point shooting, but McDaniels and Slow Mo, Kyle Anderson.
3:43
Well, it was Kyrie going off and it was that, as they pointed out on Inside the NBA afterwards, this drop-down defense that the T-Wolves do. And the Mavs were, they had 10 dunks, I believe. 10.
3:55
It's, uh, it's, uh, l- you could put it as simple as this, Luca offense better than Gobert defense. [laughs] Luca, this- You put, you put Gobert in pick and roll, pick and roll with Luca- Sounded-...
4:06
he's gonna e- he's gonna eat you apart, man. He did that all night long. Sounded like you were speaking in a monosyllabic grunts. [laughs] Luca offense better than Gobert defense. That's all you gotta know, right?
4:15
[laughs] That's all we gotta know. That's our whole analysis. Why am I going through this?
4:18
Uh, third quarter, Dallas went up by a point, uh, for their first lead in the first quart- since the first quarter, 67-66, but the Wolves led by one after three, 83-82.
4:25
And then the fourth, this is the, the, the run, like I talk about the runs were ridiculous. Yeah. Wolves go up 89-84, then Luca, a personal seven to nothing run. It's 91-89 Mavs.
4:35
By the way, that was part of a 13 to nothing run that gave the Mavs their biggest lead of the game, 97-89 at that point. You're like, "Okay, Mavs are gonna win this." Nope. Nope. [laughs] Minnesota, 13 to one run.
4:46
They go up four, 102 to 98 on an Ant three, a Cat two, a Gobert two, and a Cat three and an Ant three. Then Luca three, PJ three, Mavs up two.
4:56
Then Cat on a dunk follow-up ruled basket interference, correctly, by the way, I think. Agreed. Then Lively traveled with 1:23 left. Then a terrible Conley to Gobert alley-oop attempt that got knocked away.
5:09
Um, then Luca- It wasn't that bad. It was a great play by Luca. It, it was such a short pass, it, that was, that was never gonna get home.
5:17
Then Luca two, just a g- just a beautiful short range jumper two, and the Mavericks go up four. Um, Cat misses a three, Kyrie misses with 17.5 seconds left, but that, that Luca shot was the dagger.
5:29
So Reid puts in a tip in off a Cat missed three. That cuts it to two, seven seconds left. Kyrie hits both free throws. They're back up four with 1.8 left, and then Josh Green somehow fouls Conley from behind the arc.
5:39
What are you doing? And Conley, who was a 91.1% free throw shooter this year, makes the first but misses the second. You gotta make that second one so you can, uh- Yeah. That was a scream by Green...
5:51
hopefully get a board and a rebound, but instead they're down three. What are you doing? What if he made that shot? Like, oh my God. Oh my God. Oh my God. He purposely misses the third, but nothing happened on the Karen.
6:00
Mavs win 108-105. Doncic ends up with 33, and Kyrie with a cool 30 21 again in the first half of that, 24, pardon me, in the first half, really kept the Mavs in that game in the first half.
6:13
And there you go, Mavericks first blood drawn up one game to nothing in this best of seven series. And I guess my question to you is, you called this, it worked out for you in the end. Yeah.
6:25
It looked like it wouldn't several times down the stretch, but it did.
6:28
If you're the Mavericks, if you listen to that Kyrie interview afterwards with Inside the NBA, he was sort of like, "Yeah, they do what they do, and we adjust," and, uh, it seemed real easy for him.
6:39
Yeah, it was, uh, I mean, I think one of those games from a, from a betting standpoint, I think it's the, like, the result was kind of always in question, right? Yeah. I think the handicap was right.
6:48
I mean, they brought it up on, they brought it up on the game broadcast. I, I, I, I'm surprised they didn't bring it up 17 times more.
6:55
Anthony Edwards had completely-- He was gassed, exhausted, hiding in the corner- He-... catching his breath. What did you make of that?
7:02
I, I mean, I, I, what I make of it is he played seven games against the Denver Nuggets and then had to go out there. I mean, we talk about these guys that are great on both sides of the ball, which is awesome.
7:11
It's a great ability. But when you have to try to keep up with Kyrie Irving on defense all night long and then be the main guy on offense, it is very taxing.
7:21
And [laughs] that is what you saw, I think, in that second half. He was, uh, he was- He couldn't even move, couldn't move... I mean, he was hiding. He was hiding, Gil.
7:27
It was, it was Mike Conley take up the ball and go into the corner. I need to catch my breath so I can play defense. Um, I think he'll look better. Look, I think he'll realize, I think they'll scheme differently.
7:36
If that means k- taking him off Kyrie and out of some of the defensive action to make-- They have to have his offense. As good of a defender as he is, Timberwolves have to have him on, on offense.
7:47
So they, they'll adjust for that. I don't expect that to be an, as big of an issue. But him and Cat both really weren't all that great offensively last night.
7:55
And if you don't get that, this look starts to look like the 17th ranked offense that we saw during the regular season. So I, it's-- And they had trouble defensively, Gil, right?
8:06
I mean, the bigs, the Dallas bigs continue to be impressive. Derrick Lively, Derrick Lively's amazing. What do we have? Three centers in this rookie class that are just stellar?
8:15
Like, if, if Wemby didn't exist, how much would we be talking about Chet, right? If Chet did and Wemby didn't exist, how much would we be talking about to what Derrick Lively's doing? Um, so those guys are great.
8:25
There, there's nothing about that outcome, though. Like, we could just as easily be sitting in here and talking about a Wolves win. Oh, absolutely. The way another went. Absolutely. So- That's what I'm saying.
8:31
The result was always in question, right? Yeah. The result was always in question. It was tight. It was tight. It is, it was Plinko all, all game. So I think the, the ones where you look ahead to game two, right? Yeah.
8:39
It's, I didn't r- like, I'm not rushing. I'm very, I'm in a, I'm in a very good spot series-wise now. Yeah. So, like, I'm, I'm willing to bet these game to game.
8:48
Everybody's first instinct was to go and hammer the Timberwolves last night with laying four, laying four and a half on the opener. I held back. Like, are you gonna get better offense from Ant and Cat? Probably.
8:59
You're probably not gonna get the same level of contribution offensively that you got from Jaden McDaniels and Kyle Anderson, though. And the Mavs only made six three-pointers. The whole night, they only made six threes.
9:10
You telling me they're making only six threes going forward? Well, that's why I said when you said the part about the T-Wolves not getting off the greatest offensive games from Ant and others.
9:17
I, I think the Mavs could just as easily turn, you know, can counter that by saying, "Yeah, we didn't do that from behind the arc."
9:22
And by the way, even though McDaniels played well, the rest of the team didn't really do much on offense. Right.
9:27
Like PJ and all those guys that, that we counted on the previous series, uh, Gafford, they didn't really have great games, right? Uh, excuse me, pardon me, uh, other side. Yeah, PJ and Gafford, right?
9:36
So it was, it was just, I think both teams can say to themselves, "We can do much better." Yes. And every outcome here will be, uh, much up in question.
9:44
Uh, by the way, you see the Wall Street Journal just put out an article yesterday. See what it was called? How the Worst Trade Ever Built an NBA Title Contender. [laughs] Thank you, Wall Street Journal.
9:54
Uh, real quick on the-- Should I do the French Open real quick? Yeah, let's go. What do we got? All right, so I just- We can do it with Zach too... just soaking this in. We're gonna have Zach Cohen come up.
9:59
Zach is next, next segment. Mm-hmm. Um, 'cause he's gonna talk NBA and tennis with us as well. So I've just had a chance to soak in the men's draw.
10:05
I have not on the women's side, but the women's side is more clear that it's an Iga show. But on the men's side, uh, Q1 is the Djokovic quarter.
10:14
He's got Casper Ruud in there with him, and he's got some other, like, clay court specialists like Echeverri and Korea. He's also got Taylor Fritz in there, Cerundolo, another clay court specialist.
10:23
Um, if Joker's on his game, he ought to be able to overcome all, but I don't-- Ruud and Fritz have unbelievable clay numbers. So that's tough. Joker's definitely the favorite in there.
10:36
He's the justified favorite in there. It's a tough, tough go, though, I would say generally speaking, if we don't know what we're gonna get out of him.
10:43
Q2, Rafa Nadal, 14-time winner, gets Sascha Zverev in the first round. Oh my God, what a way to get out of this tournament.
10:52
'Cause Sascha's gonna beat him 'cause I don't think Rafa's anywhere close to top of his game, and that'll be the end of Nadal at the French Open.
10:59
Also in Q2, uh, Medvedev's on the other side, but he's not a clay court guy. You have some clay court guys like Navone, Cobolli, uh, Darderi. Uh, Cobolli's actually all court. Um, Zverev ought to be the favorite in that.
11:12
Struff is kind of a g- good clay numbers. De Minaur's in there, but Zverev ought to be the favorite. Q3 is the hardest one to me at the top. Alcaraz, Rublev, and Tsitsipas. Also throw Shelton in there. Oh my God.
11:25
Uh, Alcaraz will be the favorite, but Rublev would be the guy, and Tsitsipas would be the guy that could take it over.
11:31
To me, the betting opportunity will be in Q4 because we don't know what we're gonna-- If you don't believe that Jannik Sinner is top shape, there could be an opportunity there on the Orcazas and the Dimitrovs and the Yaris or Baez of the world.
11:44
We'll get into it more with, uh, Zach coming up, but Q4 might be where the opportunity is. Zach is next.
11:50
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12:56
Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin live from Bar Canada at the D, downtown Las Vegas. Majestic downtown Las Vegas. Um, coming up on the show still Crack, unscripted with the Crack man, Bill Krackomberger.
13:08
Uh, Matt Grissom on college baseball as well. We get tweets, Kelly. I don't know if you know that. Be in the book. Uh, Mike Stacks, "You got your three games Christmas survivor week.
13:17
I'll be in Vegas in two weeks to take you and Kelly out to your favorite sushi place." Oh, apparently, so we have the announcement that we're, uh, I, I guess Derek and Mike were on this morning.
13:25
Yeah, they went on Follow the Money this morning- So-... broke down, I believe, both contest details... so we get the three game Christmas carve out. Okay, good. Not two games, in other words. Okay.
13:35
So we don't have to have that discussion anymore- Yeah... of like, do we even play this thing? Uh, okay, good. Let's see. Joey Isaacs, "What ga- uh, what did you guys take on futures? I just have Rublev 45 to one."
13:47
Um, again, just a quick glance at the, uh, the French. I don't have any yet because, uh, besides my parlays with, uh, with Iga on Jo- this is pre-draw, Joker, Carlitos, and Casper Ruud.
13:59
The Casper Ruud one I'm quite happy with, actually. But again, for me, if you're looking at a bomb, Q4 is the spot for it. The Sinner. The Sinner quarter.
14:12
If you think Sinner is not gonna be 100%, again, doctors told him, "Don't play in this." Um, but I do think, I do think that, uh, your, your quarter Q3, sir, um, with Rublev, you got Tsitsipas and Alcaraz in there.
14:27
I don't know about that one, 'cause he's gotta, Rublev's gotta get past that quarterfinal ceiling thing that he has in his head. These are tough. These are, these are r- pretty evenly broken down quarters.
14:39
It's, it's not one of these tournaments where we're like, "Oh my God, can you believe this quarter?" And, "Oh my God, what an easy path here." I think they're actually, 'cause there's a...
14:46
The reason for that is there's a lot of clay court specialists. There's like a whole Latin American tour of clay courts during the early part of the calendar year.
14:57
I didn't know that until you brought that up the other day. Well, it's not- That's interesting. Yeah... it's not called that, but there is.
15:01
So right, so guys like, uh, Jari and Baez and Navone and Darderi, these guys are clay court specialists. So, like Tabilo beat Djokovic, right?
15:13
So they all have a puncher's chance, maybe not to win it all, but to get far, and so that's a thing. And by the way, we, we did get a question also about why don't they just do it by ranking every time?
15:23
Why doesn't one play 32, two play 31, like that kind of thing, or, or at least broken down that way?
15:28
Because if you did that in tennis, the rankings are slow to move, so you would basically have so many similar match-ups from slam to slam that it would be boring. So every tournament doesn't live...
15:39
Wimbledon is the most loyal to the rankings. How does that work? Is it like golf? Do they update those every week? You are always defending points- Without-... from, from year to year.
15:52
So in other words, if you did well in a tournament s- Yeah... you know, uh, exactly 365 days ago, or 52 weeks ago, I should say, um, you, if you do worse this year, you're losing points in rankings. Okay.
16:04
Does that make sense? Okay. Gotcha. By the way, Cavaliers firing coach JB Bickerstaff, we should point out as well. Yes. Um, his dad, assistant coach, 1978 Washington Bullets, I believe.
16:18
[laughs] You see the assistant coach on the s- I know he was assistant coach on the '75 Bullets, Bernie Bickerstaff, but I think the '78 Bullets that won the championship, too.
16:24
Uh, Brian M., oh no, we don't wanna read that one. Hump Day Hockey, "Did you touch on the new Pirates Hall of Famer Barry Bonds just stirring the pot yet?" [laughs] Don't get me st- get me started on that.
16:35
Uh, finally, Hall of Fame gets it right with Barry Lamar Bonds. Uh, okay, about those, uh, NBA prices for potential finals, for hypothetical finals match-ups. [laughs] I didn't see this Barry Bonds story.
16:51
Barry Bonds in the Pirates Hall of Fame. That's hilarious. Yeah. I did not see that. Wow. Yeah. I don't know if he's in the Giants Hall of Fame. Yeah, I know. Yeah. Yeah, well maybe he is.
16:58
He is in the Giants Hall of Fame because I think I attended that. I flew to San Francisco for that. I even forgot. Well then, like, what- Yeah... what took the, uh, what took the Pirates so long, man?
17:08
Well, 'cause he played earlier in his career. He was phenomenal with the Pirates. Yeah, he was awesome. He was a massive free agent signing for the Giants as he g- went back home.
17:15
But yeah, it's a- I'm, I'm glad they had 30 years to think about it... it's almost like the team's way of flipping off the MLB Hall of Fame. Right. Yeah. It's like- I love it. I love it... yeah.
17:23
It's like, "I don't care what you guys think," but he's awesome. Um, all right, let's get to this.
17:28
So we have, of course, the potential fi- uh, potential final match-ups, and these are pr- these are p- these are prices you can bet right now, correct? These are up at DraftKings.
17:38
So if you wanna take a flyer on these potential, there's obviously four potential match-ups, have at it. Celtics versus the Timberwolves. Celtics are minus 235, T-Wolves are plus 195.
17:51
Now, part of this factor is obviously gonna be where they are currently in the series, right? So the T-Wolves being down one to nothing affects this. So it, what's funny is, Gil, is not really.
18:02
They didn't, they did- they didn't really move at all From, from be- from before yesterday's game? Yeah, yeah, yeah. 'Cause I went and checked, thought that same thing. Like, oh, maybe they would.
18:09
But I mean, in theory they are just look ahead lines, so it doesn't really matter what's going on in the series as long as you get out of it, right?
18:14
Well, yeah, but you have to have a equal chance from the day before to get out of it for them not to move. That seems a little weird. Celtics minus 235, Timberwolves plus 195 in that potential matchup.
18:26
If it's the Celtics and the Mavericks, Celtics minus 280, slightly higher, the Mavericks plus 230, slightly longer than the T-Wolves would be.
18:35
Keep in mind again, the Mavericks up one to nothing in that series, having taken home field, uh, home court advantage. Now, if it is the Pacers matchups, the T-Wolves would be minus 370.
18:46
This would be the biggest, according to these numbers, this would be the biggest mismatch on the board. T-Wolves would be minus 370, Pacers plus 295.
18:55
And if it's the Mavs and the Pacers, the minor, uh, the Mavericks would be minus $3, the Pacers would be plus 245.
19:01
So both of the Pacers series would obviously, they would be the, uh, the bigger dogs regardless of matchup than would either the T-Wolves...
19:10
Oh, well, uh, than would either, excuse me, the, in the, uh, T-Wolves Mavericks versus the Celtics. The Celtics would not be quite as big of a favorite on their side as the Ma- as the, uh,
19:20
as the, uh, T-Wolves and Mavericks would be versus the Pacers, if that makes sense. So, um- Man... is there a price there that you like? Obviously you would like the Mavericks prices, right?
19:30
I, I think there's, I think there's, I, just, just looking at these, the, uh, like Timberwolves Pacers, just please don't let that be the NBA finals.
19:37
Like, not that it's bad, it's just- Can you imagine network executives like, "Minnesota and Indiana, baby, let's go"? [laughs] I wasn't even gonna go from that perspective- Sorry... but you're right.
19:45
Like that, yeah, they would, oh b- yeah, they'd be crying if they got that matchup. But, uh, just so different, just so, like two teams that are so different stylistically that like,
19:56
I, I think I'd be forced to take a piece of the Pacers because I think they'd actually be able to just outshoot Minnesota in a game or two and at least keep it close at a price like that.
20:06
I think in every other one of these though, that we talk, I mean, I think me and you have ba- basically been saying it [laughs] for, for a couple months now, I'd be looking Western Conference against the Celtics and-
20:17
Yeah... I, I wouldn't be laying $3 on the Mavericks against the Pacers either.
20:20
Like that, there, there, there is a, there is definitely some, some la- [laughs] I'm not even the biggest Pacers, Pacers guy, but there's some lack of respect in these numbers. Do you, do you subscribe to this though?
20:30
'Cause this is f- with, with basketball for me, this, ah, I'm gonna let the hate wash over me after I say this, that there is a degree of, well, there's a degree of randomness in every sport as we discussed, but it seems to me like in these particular matchups, like,
20:46
no outcome of any game would surprise me in either of these conference finals matchups, right? If, if the T-Wolves took down the Mavericks in game two it wouldn't surprise me.
20:54
If Luka and Kyrie did their thing throughout the rest of the, of the playoffs, it wouldn't surprise me. Um,
21:01
would the Pacers surp- I, I have the Pacers in seven against the Celtics, so it wouldn't like flabbergast me if the Pacers somehow put together an eight-game stretch of amazing offense that just overcame everything.
21:13
Right. They, they could outshoot guys. Yeah, so- Outshoot teams... so, so much of this is, and, and knowing that then, if you were just landing on this, like part of this to me is, okay, I'm betting tennis, right?
21:24
Uh, I'll bet these things that you think you have more of a handle on, and it's okay.
21:28
Like for me on some of these, like if I'm watching the Mavs and the Timble- Timberwolves last night, I'm like, "I have no idea how this is gonna turn out." Yeah. Yeah. None.
21:35
And so as I, just as I watch these, as I look at these numbers, the Mavericks are the one that leaps out to me, because after what happened last night, if you believe that Luka and Kyrie, 'cause remember when Besper was on, he was like, "Well, the T-Wolves should think to themselves that what they had to face against the Nuggets was so much more complex and so much more to worry about than just Luka and Kyrie."
21:54
But the nature of basketball, right, the counter to that is there's five guys on the court, and if two of them are Hall of Famers, what is the r- what, what matters other than that? It's just different. I, I- Right?...
22:04
I mean it's, I, it's not that I disagree with what, what Dan said on Friday, but it, it's just a d- I mean it's, Jokic is a special player, so is Luka Dončić, right?
22:12
It might not be the same level, but he's a special offensive player that's a completely different matchup for them.
22:17
So- I- I mean, when you, like when you boil what all four of these teams have going for them down, it's okay, the Mavericks got s- stars, right?
22:24
And they got one guy who's been there before too, I think was very evident with Kyrie last night. Yeah. Right? First half, here's someone who's been here before and is gonna act, you know, played like it, acted like it.
22:35
They got that going for them. Okay, Timberwolves have one of the best defenses we've seen in a while. Can their offense keep up though, right? That's always a question.
22:42
Celtics, it's shooting and defense, and then the Pacers got the shooting. Just wanna say it's okay to s- to say some sports easier to wrap your hands around than others. College baseball next.
22:52
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
We're so close to crowning an NBA champ, and with the action heating up on the court, it's even hotter at DraftKings Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA. New to DraftKings? Listen up.
23:04
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23:16
Download the DraftKings app, uh, right now. Use code VSin. The crown is yours. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app now. Use code VSin and you are on the way to all of that. It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin.
23:30
Before we talk, uh, college baseball with Matt Grissom, uh, Kelly and I are having this riveting discussion off air that I think we should, uh, bring on air. You, you brought back, 'cause I mentioned that
23:41
as these series progress- Yeah...
23:44
that those hypothetical, well, I, I get it that the, the prices are not hypothetical 'cause you'd actually bet them, but the matchups being hypothetical 'cause we don't know what they are yet- Mm... in the NBA.
23:53
I was saying as these series progresses, those numbers should change
23:58
And you're like, and you still don't buy that I don't think they should change that much because you're talk- Well, not after one game they shouldn't b- change that much I don't even, I don't even think, I don't even think it's...
24:06
Like, if the Timberwolves, your example, right? If they go down 0-2- Yes... it's just very, it, it's, they should change a lot in the overall to win the NBA Finals, right?
24:16
'Cause you still have to win eight games in total out of what? Tw- that would be 12 possible remaining, right? Right. But this is a brand new series then.
24:25
Yeah, but they're down 0-2, so to make that series happen is that, is that much more improbable. Yeah, but we're not talking about to make the NBA Finals now.
24:33
We're talking about w- once you're already there, to win the NBA Finals. Right, but they're down two to nothing. So
24:42
the T-Wolves shouldn't stay at plus 195 to be in a matchup with the Celtics because for you to put your money on that matchup, right? Yeah, but if they don't make it, it just gets canceled. Oh, I see what you're saying.
24:55
Okay. Yeah. I didn't understand at first. Right. Like, they should get longer in the to wi- the overall futures market, right? Well, for sure. When they lose games.
25:03
Right, but- The only thing that would change here is I think if the book's overall power ratings of the team change along the way, which absolutely could occur.
25:09
Well, right, but so, so you get refunded if you, if this doesn't work out? So as you're bringing in a point that I didn't think of. Oh, I would assume so. Yeah. Yeah, I would- Oh, well, let's not, let's not assume that.
25:18
Yeah, you have, they have to be canceled. These have to be canceled bets if something doesn't get- I don't know. I don't know if they are. I don't know. Yeah. We'll have to check on that.
25:27
But you're saying it did change somewhat after the g- after game one. Uh, slightly. I believe slightly, yes. Right, because if they're, if they're down three... Well, I don't know.
25:36
It's an interesting question, though, 'cause now I'm getting discombobulated thinking about it. Yeah. Maybe they should've stayed off air. [laughs] Anyway, maybe we'll do that off air next time.
25:45
Uh, let's talk some college baseball because this is, uh, always fascinating. We have made good money over the years on this. Matt Grissom has a, uh, website. He was kind enough to be here on the table with us last week.
25:56
Uh, it's collegebaseballinsiders.com. He joins us now. You can follow him on Twitter @GrissomOnX, G-R-I-S-S-O-M. And this is, uh, great to have you on the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Matt? I'm doing well.
26:09
I, this is why I love VSIN, is I've had blinders on for college baseball. I couldn't even tell you what other sports are going on.
26:16
So glad I could be here, hear a little, uh, what, French Open from you, Gil, and then NBA from Kelly. It's great. I don't even have to lift a finger on those sports. I just fl- follow you guys.
26:27
Well, that's what you're here for for college baseball. We don't wanna have to lift a finger. And I... and if you could, Matt- Here we go...
26:32
before we even get into thoughts on these teams, can you explain to everybody the format from this point forward, and specifically what happens with regionals?
26:43
Uh, as of right now, we are in conference tournaments, and then we'll have, uh, the selection show next week. That's gonna give you your 16 regional places where the top four seeds for a...
26:55
or not top four, but four seeds will play each other in a double elimination.
27:00
So it'll be one versus four, two versus three, and then on and so forth till everyone, uh, has been doubly eliminated and you crown a champion.
27:10
Then they'll play in a super regional, which will just be a typical weekend best of three series.
27:15
And those are, those hosts will be the top eight national seeds, unless one of them loses, then it'll go to the higher seeded team. So it's a little wonky, but it's the most entertaining form of sports.
27:29
I mean, you'll s- you'll see ESPN will have the squeeze play going, which is basically like the NFL RedZone channel for college baseball.
27:37
It'll, it'll be like home run here, and then it'll flip over and show a gem of a catch. It's, it's the best thing in sports, in my opinion. All right.
27:45
Now, when, when I had Brad Porres, my buddy, on in previous years, and we talked about regionals, though, these are...
27:50
You know, we, we use the word politics to describe some of the decision-making and how teams end up where they, where they end up, because it is not a... It's not completely democratic, right, in that respect?
28:03
Yes, and, and very much so. It's very location-based. These teams, you know, a lot of college baseball programs don't have a lot of money to travel, so you may get seeded in a tougher
28:15
regional just based on where your location is. So for instance, I think Campbell, a couple years ago, they got seeded with a really good Wake Forest team.
28:25
Uh, granted, they probably shouldn't have been in that regional, but because of being on the w- uh, East Coast, that's where they ended up.
28:34
And Little Rock is probably gonna end up in the Fayetteville Regional, and that's brutal for them [laughs] because, uh, it looks like Arkansas is probably gonna be a top five seed, when UALR is not necessarily one of the worst four seeds.
28:48
They were winners of the OVC. Uh, but just due to logistics and traveling for these teams, it's, that's where they're gonna end up. All right. By the way, democratic, small D.
28:58
I should point that out, Kelly, in this day and age, for God's sakes. [laughs] I got a blackjack story for you about that later. For God's sakes, small D. [laughs] Everything, everything is political nowadays, right?
29:07
That's right. That's not what I meant. Uh, okay. So, um, you're betting on a daily basis. What is the go-to book for you, Matt?
29:15
Because this is the biggest question with College World Series is, all right, what books are even posting these games day to day right now?
29:20
So all of our odds on our website, collegebaseballinsiders.com, those are pulled from DraftKings. They've been the most consistent as far as posting all season long, every day.
29:31
Here in Arkansas, I've got BetSaracen and Oaklawn. Oaklawn copies lines straight from BetRivers, so if I ever re- uh, make a reference to BetRivers, that's where I'm betting it. Uh, which, you know, they're...
29:45
BetRivers, hats off to them. They're the ones that have hung these odds to make the College World Series, so just to get to Omaha.
29:53
And this is, uh, an option where you can attack it and not have to rely on, you know, the 25 to one ticket when they may not win it all because of their pitching staff, which unfortunately they've showed the last week Uh, but just to get there, and we saw a lot of teams get there that I think would've surprised people, like TCU, Oral Roberts last year.
30:15
So I, I feel like we're, uh, we're doing a really good job of monitoring teams that are on an upward trend, and we'll get into that here in, here in a minute. Okay, so let's do that.
30:24
So let's start with, are there any games today that you've bet? And let's then go to that before we get to the outrights. Teams to make the College World Series bets. Let's do all three levels of this.
30:33
So SEC tournament is going on right now. They start, I feel like, at 5:00 A.M. This is absolutely brutal, but Arkansas's playing Kentucky. It's the number two versus number three seed in the tournament.
30:45
Kentucky was the outright winner shared with Tennessee, but because they're in the East, Tennessee got the one seed, Arkansas got the two seed because they are in the West.
30:56
So Tennessee gets, or Kentucky gets slotted at the three. I'm on Arkansas. Hagan Smith is going today. They threw off to keep his rest, and that's something that I try to really explain to people.
31:09
These top eight teams, they really don't care to win this conference tournament. This is all about saving your arm. We were not gonna throw Hagan Smith off six-day rest when yesterday's game did not matter.
31:23
We started our normal midweek guy in Bid Bobby, who lost 6-5 to South Carolina. Hagan Smith today on normal rotation. I felt like, you know, minus 175, that's one of the lower prices he's been all season long.
31:36
Uh, he's our stud ace being compared to Paul Skenes. Outside of that, I really like Oklahoma State. This is a team I was gonna get into with the futures right now. Uh, this team is trending up.
31:47
They're 8-2 in their last 10. They've won their first two games in the Big 12 tournament. They're gonna be minus 185. I'm not sure who their pitchers are.
31:56
They've, the teams have been awful about announcing at the last minute. But this Oklahoma State team, they're 6-1 right now to make the College World Series on BetRivers.
32:07
Uh, they're seventh ranked in our insiders power ratings. 8-2 in the last 10. Number one pitching staff in the country over the last 10 games, and they're number 10 in the last 10 in hitting.
32:19
It's a very well-balanced team trending upwards. They've got the pitching staff to compete with anybody, and I like them to, uh, to make some noise in the postseason. Okay.
32:29
So Arkansas today, Oklahoma State to make the College World Series. Anything else? And Oklahoma State to not. I think they're- And Oklahoma State to not... around minus 175.
32:41
Uh, and then this, this Southern California-Oregon game is kind of interesting. Depending on who goes, that's a 5:30 Eastern game. Uh, I think
32:52
Southern California, this was a team that they were displaced all season long. They're rebuilding their baseball stadium. They had to drive 45 minutes to play their home teams, or home games.
33:02
This is a team with a very deep pitching staff that finally seems to be healthy. Oregon minus 180, Southern Cal plus 140 may be a play for me. And then I like LSU to take care of business to not against South Carolina.
33:14
That's another team that's trending forward right now at the right time. Okay. Matt will add to the outright, so we'll have more outright thoughts next week. Yes? Perfect. Absolutely. Matt Grissom, everybody.
33:25
Collegebaseballinsiders.com. Grissom on X. Thank you, Matt, appreciate it. Absolutely, thanks. Crack Man is next, unscripted. Numbers Game, VSiN, eSports betting network. The numbers tell the story. They always do.
33:43
It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics-lytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, eSports betting network.
33:54
VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, all proudly brought to you by DraftKings and Zyn nicotine pouches. This hour it's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin from Bar Canada at the D.
34:05
By the way, uh, Kelly, you're completely right about the series prices. It would refund. I, apparently in my head, had exactas in my head. This is what I'm getting all- Yeah, right. Yes... discombobulated.
34:13
Yeah, that's what you were thinking. We talked a lot of exactas, okay? That's what happens when you're looking at draws for the French Open in between segments. Like, what? What are we doing?
34:20
We've also talked a lot of exactas- Yes... and not at all on look ahead lines. [laughs] Yes. Um, so I completely got confused. My culpa on that. Ladies and gentlemen, it is, uh, 11:00 A.M. Eastern, 8:00 A.M.
34:30
Pacific on Thursdays. You know what that means. Unscripted with the Crack Man, Bill Krackerberger. [upbeat music] Let's go. Billy.
34:48
Hello, guys. What's happening? I don't think I've been here. I feel like I haven't been here in a month. It feels that way. It does. Oh, well, you were off. I was off. One- Were you off one week? One week.
34:55
And I was, and I last week had a, the night before the show, [laughs] I s- I said I was coming on the next day, but had an opportunity to jump on a plane the next day, next morning, and I only had, the, the flights, I only had so many choices, and I was like, "Ah, damn, I just promised Gil I was coming on."
35:10
And, uh, I think I text you, like, did I text you in the morning or hopefully, hopefully it was the night before. Yeah, yeah. No, it was the night before. It was? It was, it was... No, we, we had a solid 24 hours.
35:17
Oh, we did? Yeah, it was the day before. Oh, okay. Yeah, no, the day before I was like- Yeah... I, I, I talked to you or the two days before. But- This is when the NFL schedule came out, right? Yes.
35:25
And I had to go down to Florida to make sports bets, 'cause of course- [laughs]... you know, I have to leave Las Vegas, which is a, a sports betting capital of the world. Yes.
35:33
[laughs] But I mean, um, you know, it's supposed to be. Yes. Uh, the reason why I went to Florida, because I was there at Tampa a few weeks earlier,
35:42
and they had, they were the, they really had, they had the season wins, over/under season wins up before almost anybody. And, um, not only did they have them, they were taking giant bets.
35:52
I was fooling around, like, not fooling around, I was just almost testing to see how much money they, they take. And, and- What, what did we learn? I learned they, they, they took it. I, I learned, what did I learn?
36:02
How much. I didn't, I didn't bring enough money. Wow. No, I definitely did. I, I had, like, 25 grand and it went on the first three bets. Yeah. Wow. So I said, "I gotta go back there eventually."
36:11
And- When I seen other markets coming up, I said, "You know what? Let me get back there." And, uh, I, I... You know, you could look at their lines here, which is unbelievable. Like, it's great.
36:19
You can look at the lines, uh, in Las Vegas. And I just got on a plane and went down to Hard Rock in, uh, in Hollywood this time. And let me tell you, you know, I'm tough on casinos a lot.
36:29
I, I, I expect more out of them than, than, than most, and to try to help the, the customer and the, you know, Joe Public. I was really impressed with that property.
36:39
I haven't been there in a couple years since the Guitar Tower was built. They put billions of dollars into this place, billions with a B. I mean, just their pools and cabanas and, I mean, it, it, it's...
36:50
It reminds me of being in, like, the Bahamas or something. Yeah. It was really, really nice. I didn't expect it to be that nice. I was at the pool every day, which I normally don't do.
36:58
But I had some friends down there, and they were gonna go to the pool. I said, "All right, I'll go to the pool." And, um, yeah, it, it was... Oh, oh, I learned something. So I brought...
37:06
I knew I was gonna go to the pool- Do you wear the Kangol at the pool? That's what we wanna know. I did, in the water a little bit. Okay. And then I took it off a little bit. Just curious. Yeah.
37:12
But I, I learned something. Good question. Well, you can't get sunburned. That's the only question I had. Yeah, sure. I, I'll make you laugh.
37:16
I'm talking about all these tens of thousands of dollars, and I'll, I'll make you laugh. I'll get the frugal Bill Krackenberger. I had some sunblock in the apartment from three or four years ago, I guess.
37:27
I just said, "Let me bring, let me bring the sunblock with me." So I put the sunblock on, and I... And then at the end of the day, I'm like, "Wow, I got a little burn on my, my head."
37:35
And I go like, I go, "How did I get burnt?" Well, I realized it expired in 2020. [laughs] So- Wait, where'd you bring the sunblock from? From, from Vegas. From Vegas. From Vegas. Sunblock expires.
37:45
[laughs] It expires, but, you know, I'm always a, a, a proponent of saying everything expires, but it's, it's still good. Right. Yeah. Not the sunblock. Expired. Sunblock definitely expires. Expired. I did not know that.
37:54
Yeah. I learned something today. Yeah. Sunblock expires. Expired, expired. So I think about it. I said, "You know, I bought this at Dollar Tree, I think." I was like, that, that's...
38:02
You know, like I'm thinking to myself, "What's wrong with me? Why, why wouldn't I br- get a good sunblock from 2024 that I still have this one from 2020?" Which is probably from 2016.
38:11
Well, aren't you limited to, like, 3.3 fluid ounces or 3.4 fluid ounces when traveling anyway? Yeah. Yeah, but it, it was in the bag, though. It was in the bag. Oh, you, you checked it.
38:19
So I immediately got, you know, got robbed for $25 for a Coppertone one at the, the hotel. But, uh, I just thought that was kind of funny. Um, just the way- I, I-...
38:27
the way you l- we live our life sometimes, and then sometimes we live our life so differently. And I was just like, "Well, what's wrong with me? I just... I, I mean, I'm betting tens of thousands here."
38:36
[laughs] And you won't buy the $25 sunscreens. [laughs] At a Dollar Tree five, or five-year-old sunblock. We're, we're all like that, though. Yeah. We're all old like that. Try to get the best of everything.
38:43
I was, "Oh, I got some of the sunblock in my, in my, uh," you know, bag. By the way, I've t- I think I've said this on air.
38:47
I've had a low-key, very low, this tone argument with a TSA agent about them stealing my sunblock. Oh, wow. I'm like, "You think-" Yeah.
38:54
I said, "You think the world's gonna be safe that you just stole my sunblock, right?" They go, "Actually..." And they go, "Actually, I think the world is safer." And I go, "Eh, I don't think so. I don't think it is."
39:01
[laughs] "Yeah, I think it is, sir." And we're moved on. I want a level bet there for that. [laughs] Wow. We're gonna get to that. We're gonna get to the problems at the airport. Yeah. Like, I'm gonna get to that. Yeah.
39:08
But I wanted to tell you the... So the Hard Rock, everything from the rooms to the sh- the unbelievable shows. I mean, the Red Hot Chili Peppers are gonna be there this weekend, or the next weekend.
39:20
Um, Diana Ross- Diana's going, yep... Diana Ross was just there, like, out of retirement. They go to the Hard- By the, by the way, her voice at 76 years old is still spectacular. Unbelievable, right? Yeah, yeah.
39:29
Uh, the top- The rooms are great. I stayed in there- Rooms... a couple times when they first opened. It was awesome, yeah. Rooms are, rooms are unbelievable. You know, if...
39:36
You know, you guys know what hotel rooms are in, in the V- Nevada, Las Vegas, and wherever casinos you go to.
39:42
So when you go to an outside room s- at a hotel, like, like the Masters, and you stay in Motel 6 or, or, or, you know, uh, one of the motels, you say to yourself, "Oh my God, this is a disaster."
39:55
[laughs] We're expecting hotel rooms like Las Vegas, and like... You know, no, seriously, like, like the Masters- I like to stay... I, I, I pay 600 a night for, for, for Hampton Inn. Yeah. It, it's a dump.
40:06
We do get spoiled here. Yeah. So we get so spoiled- Yeah... to, for the, the, our room qual- And, and the rooms there, I felt like I was in literally The Bahamas. It was unbelievable. The meals were great there.
40:16
The service was really good. Um- Do you know, we're getting a big old guitar here? Is- I, I... The re- that's the reason I'm saying it. Oh.
40:22
I think it's gonna be m- if it's, if it's anything like that experience at Hard Rock Hollywood, it's over, brother. They're getting all the business here. Really? Hard Rock gets all the business here.
40:33
It is gonna be the most iconic thing on the scr- on the strip. Like right now, what would you say? The Stratosphere needle is, like, the iconic thing on the strip, even though no one goes there.
40:40
But when you think of the strip, maybe. But that- Bellagio Fountains. Oh, Bellagio Fountains too. But I'm just saying if you took a snapshot, right? Right, yeah. Your skyline would, yeah.
40:47
I think that the guitar would, will be it. I'm just, I'm personally annoyed by it, just 'cause it feels like South Florida's following me. Right. Like, it's like, "Oh, Fontainebleau, cool."
40:56
Like- I talked, I talked to S- [laughs] I talked to South Florida last week, and they're like, "We're following Kelly. We're totally following." Like, Fontainebleau and Hard Rock.
41:02
Like, that was- So when is the last time you guys have been to Hard Rock Hollywood? Were, were you there, there, when- I was there probably six years ago. Oh, that long ago. Okay. It was, um...
41:10
Also, I'll just tell you- Hollywood geographically is, is very short drive from Miami. If, if you have- Yeah... no traffic, of course. Right, right, right. Yeah, it's over by the turnpike. Yes.
41:18
So you're like, uh- It's by the turnpike, but it's, it's 20, it's 15 minutes from the airport. Yeah. From the, from the Fort Lauderdale Airport, 35 from the Miami Airport. Close to the stadium. Yep, close to the stadium.
41:27
And, um, boy, the weekend, the eye candy down there. Oh my God. [laughs] It's like a Miss Latino pageant every weekend. Like, I, for now on, I, I was rooting for Colombia in the Olympics.
41:40
I'm rooting for them at everything. I mean, it's unbelievable down there. I mean, beautiful, beautiful girls, one after another, and, and f- the friendliness. So there's that.
41:50
So I had a guy come up and get a, ask for a selfie, right? Oh. Ask for a selfie. Oh, he recognized you. As a matter of fact- Recognized you... let me tell you something. Yeah.
41:57
I cannot believe the recognition from this show. I, I mean, it... There's a big South Florida following of your show, Gilts. I love you, South Florida.
42:08
People came up to me because of this show, like multiple people, not one or two. Mu- I was walking... Listen, how can this happen? I'm walking through the pool with no hat. How can you recognize me without the hat?
42:18
I didn't recognize you when you had the baseball hat on. Right, yeah. [laughs] When you came on our show, I'm like, "Bill, is that you?" Someone jumped out of the pool. A guy jumped out of the pool.
42:24
"Wait, wait a minute," he said. I just- He, he'd just seen me on a... He'd seen JetBlue, Action's still on JetBlue. It's unbelievable. Oh, that's awesome. Action's still on JetBlue.
42:31
[laughs] But, um, him and his wife just watched, like, the night before flying in. But, um, anyway, they recognized me from this show. But the selfies, then a girl comes over to me. I don't even know this girl.
42:41
She goes, "Can I get a selfie, too?" I said, "Sure." She says, "What do you do?" [laughs] Like, she just wanted to just... She was just being f- like, like they just wanna be in- involved down there.
42:50
It's, it's really cool down there. But now, it's- But now, just for clarification, explain to me the Florida, uh, gambling environment, that that is the only game in town, so to speak. Yeah.
43:01
I found, I found out that, that you could actually bet sports all over Florida. I didn't know that. I thought it was only at the two Hard Rocks. Oh, if you're on property? Yeah. Yeah. But you can...
43:12
No, but they have the app. You, you, you have an app in state you can bet. Right, that you can use now all the state now. You can use their app anywhere.
43:18
But there's other properties all throughout the state of the Seminole Tribe. I didn't even know. Correct. You can go to Coconut Creek and bet sports. Mm-hmm. I was like, "What?" Oh, really?
43:26
Coconut- Yeah, like I didn't realize that. And now, and then, then I seen the printout. There's like 50 places that have kiosks set up all over the state now. Hmm.
43:34
So you don't have to, you don't have to be, you don't have to go, like, right to the counter. Um, but by the way, I, I took- Now, I think they're all under the Hard Rock umbrella though, right?
43:42
I, I guess they're all under the Seminole umbrella. Seminole Casino Coconut Creek- That's what it is... but it is under Hard Rock. Hard Rock, okay. It is a part of Hard Rock.
43:48
But like, like- So, so it is, in effect, the only game in town. But like, all- Yeah, yeah... okay, like Fort Myers you can bet. I was like, "Fort Myers?" Yeah, you can bet in Fort Myers.
43:55
Like I was, I was like, I didn't, I didn't understand how they had the, the... I thought it was just the two properties that allowed sports betting. Hmm. So good guys. They all, they...
44:03
I, I've only met really good guys up at the counter there betting, and uh, they told me... You know, I, I like that they say, "Hey," I tried to bet a dime or so on something. I was trying, I was betting some NBA props.
44:14
He's like, "Uh, you can put a nickel through, or we can send a dime through for approval, but, um, you can put the nickel right through."
44:21
So I put the nickel through, waited 10 minutes, went up again, put the nickel through again. I mean, they, they were cool about it, too. You know, then I, I, I'll be real blunt. I went to the kiosk.
44:28
They didn't change again. I bet again. You know, th-re, 300. The kiosk was set at 300. So, um, but I gave them time in between. I wasn't trying to circumvent limits. They were, they were...
44:38
You know, some of them, they moved right away. One bet I made for a nickel, they moved right away. There's a little part of you thinking about moving there? No. Okay. No, I can't stand the humidity and the bugs.
44:45
[laughs] Who likes that? I'll never be in a humid place again. It's gross, no. Never. Never ever. Um, but, and it, by the way, they got hit with a heat, heat wave. It was 100, which it never is 100.
44:56
Usually it's like 90, 85. It was 100 degrees and hu- and humid. Yeah, I was in that pool. That's- And the pools are so beautiful. Waterfalls come over your head. So I was like, "This is unbelievable."
45:05
Oh, Billy is mesmerized. No, it was, I was really impressed by it, by it. But now there's some bad, too. We'll talk about it after the break. Uh, mosquitoes call the airport and make sure my flight arrives on time.
45:13
Right. Right. They love me. Yeah. That's a, that's a real Achilles' heel. Yeah. [laughs] Uh, okay, more with the Crack Man unscripted, the bad, and other topics. He's got a list today. He's got things on his mind.
45:23
It's a numbers game at VSAN, the eSports betting network. [upbeat music]
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