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May 24, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 24, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 24, 2024
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. I don't care how you're taking us in. I appreciate it any way you do. Uh, every morning we do. It's Gil Alexander.
0:21
It's Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, live from Bar Canada after D was happening. Hey-o, how we doing? We're good. Good. We got an interesting show today. Something for everyone today.
0:31
A potpourri, if you will. That's right. Uh, we got, uh, on a great Memorial Day racing weekend, Phil Bobbit will join us to talk motorsports. I'm talking Indy, I'm talking F1. There's everything. Everything.
0:44
All over the racing scene. I also didn't know if the, uh, I don't know if this is something new. We'll have to ask him. Like, I don't, you and I are both not big racing guys. There's a, hey, it's speak for yourself.
0:52
[laughs] Like, like does Indy 500 and Monaco always happen on the same weekend? I have no idea, but we'll ask Phil, as you said. Yeah.
0:59
But there's, he's got picks for four different races, so, like, we can't do a lot of small talk with him. Just into the picks. Um- You may remember him for F1 Vegas. He crushed it. Crushed it.
1:08
Uh, his follow-up appearance was not as great, but, uh- What was that? Is that right? F1 Vegas, yes, he crushed. Uh, soccer with Paul Carr, John Lagasa, baseball, Jason Weingart will be here.
1:17
Jonathan Davis to talk NHL playoffs with us as well. Um, great game last night in the NHL in the Western Conference Finals.
1:24
Uh, both organizations should be very proud of themselves, but, uh, Edmonton ends up winning it in double o- double overtime. I always- I'm just talking that way so the Game Plus audience will understand, Kelly.
1:34
[laughs] I, I always do the same thing, where I've got the hockey on TV, too, and at some point I change it, and then I flip back and they're in overtime. It was great last night. Great game.
1:43
We'll talk- Like, I missed, I missed the game-tying goal, I guess, in the third. Yeah. That's what I missed. About three and a half minutes left, Tyler Seguin putting it in, his second of the day.
1:50
Yeah, that, that forced overtime. That overtime was amazing. Mm-hmm. The first overtime was incredible for, for different reasons. Uh, we'll talk to Jonathan Davis about that series.
1:57
Of course, the Rangers and the Panthers as well. Uh, I added a tennis bet in the French Open. Drew and I did the, uh, French Open podcast yesterday. That's at Beating the Book, if you're interested in that.
2:08
So that's up as well. Um, gotta talk about a baseball game last night. We'll get to that. We- let's start with basketball last night.
2:15
There was, that's obviously the headline between the Pacers and the Celtics, and the Celtics take a two to nothing lead in their best of seven Eastern Conference final series against the Pacers.
2:24
Uh, and they do so going away, um, a blowout last night, 126 to 110. Uh, we'll go through this. It'll be brief, and part of this is going to be obviously the implications of this series moving forward.
2:39
And Kelly, I don't know about you, I, I texted you a couple times last night. I don't know if you got this from me. I felt like I was...
2:47
There, there were certain times, you know, we watch sports 365 days a year, and every once in a while, there's a night where I'm watching something and I think, "Is everybody else, uh, in on something that I'm not aware of?
2:57
Did I not get a, an email about this?" Let me explain. A game starts last night, Pacers, uh, led by two after the first quarter. First quarter was fine. They had a six-point lead at one point.
3:05
They led it 27-25, and then, um, that's when the game completely turned, because part of that started at the end of the first quarter, and the Celtics turned that 27 to 22 deficit.
3:18
They scored the last three points of the, uh, first quarter. They turned a 27 to 22 deficit into a 42 to 27 lead.
3:26
It was a 20 to nothing Celtics run, and I believe I texted you during this, where I'm like, "Is anybody on the broadcast going to mention what a run this is by the Celtics shutting out the Pacers?"
3:39
The first time the broadcast mentioned it was at 17 to nothing, and it was the first time I was like, "Well, this is weird." Yeah. It's a very weird broadcast we're watching.
3:47
Well, I, I was sitting, I was sitting there cooking dinner in the kitchen, and I'm, like, so I'm doing the whole, like, look around, like, look around the score, okay, but I'm, like, listening to the game.
3:55
Every time I'd look at the TV, I'm like, "Okay, they're on 27 still. They're on 27." I'm like, "Hey, did I miss something?"
4:01
And I'm like, "Haven't there been, like, six ga- six minutes of this game that have passed by but, uh- That is correct... since they scored?" And I'm like, "Nobody's mentioned it."
4:08
Nobody, so it was, I was, I was like, "What am I watching?" Does, does Mike Breen, is he not getting, is the producer in his ear not telling him something?
4:14
I, I- Part of- I'm g- I, I believe they had to have had issues last night with something. 'Cause there, 'cause there was other things coming up, too.
4:20
Um, by the way, I believe part of this, 'cause I love Doris Burke on these broadcasts, I believe that the insertion of JJ Redick has completely minimized Doris Burke, that she defers too much, and that I think if she was more prominent, this would have come [laughs] this would have come up sooner.
4:35
Anyway, Celtics' biggest lead in, in the half was, uh, 45 to 29. Pacers did cut the lead at the end of the half with a 12 to 5 run, so it was 57-51 Celtics at halftime.
4:45
So the game was not out of hand by any stretch at that point. Siakam had 16 on eight of nine shooting. He was phenomenal. Jaylen Brown at this point had 24.
4:54
Uh, Jrue Holiday had 10 on perfect four for four shooting, two for two from, from behind the arc. But the Celtics', uh, rebounding advantage was 25 to 17. They crashed the board. They had 10 offensive boards.
5:03
And then the third quarter starts, Pacers cut it to two, 68 to 66, and then from that point forward, good God. Uh, Celtics went up 15. They led by 13 after three, 93 to 80.
5:16
Um, then they went up s- then the fourth quarter starts, they go up 17. We find out, so I'm getting texts now at this point, back to the, the weirdness of the broadcast.
5:25
I'm getting texts from people saying, "Oh man, Halliburton's done for the game." I'm like, "What do you mean Halliburton's done for the game?" "Oh, it's all online."
5:31
And then finally the broadcast mentions, "Oh, by the way, the best player on the Indiana Pacers, or their most key player all year, Tyrese Halliburton, is done for the game with leg soreness."
5:40
And I'm like, "Well, thanks for mentioning that." Um, leg soreness immediately for those who are hip to Halliburton's, uh, injury, you immediately went to the hamstring.
5:48
He, he missed 10 games in January with a hamstring injury. That is what it turned out to be, by the way. Rick Carlisle after the game, uh, saying, "He was sore at halftime.
5:58
He was getting work done for the entirety of halftime. He came out, gave it a shot and all the effort that he could. I couldn't have talked about it directly to him, so I can't read minds, but it wasn't going well.
6:07
The trainers determined he had to be brought to the back to be worked on, and then later he was ruled out." So again, strange where we got that on the broadcast. I was like, what, what am I watching here?
6:19
Um, and then Celtics go up 19, 113 to 94. They end up winning 126 to 110. And the other big point that I thought was bizarro on the broadcast was that
6:29
not only was Halliburton ruled out, but there was no Myles Turner for the fourth quarter at all. The Pacers, in effect, decided at some point to punt on this game.
6:41
And I thought it was the weirdest thing, and I get it, they were down double digits.
6:45
But for goodness sake, if any team in the NBA races double-digit leads, uh, as quick as the Indiana Pacers, I don't know what that team is. Um, and the Pacers already showed that in this series.
6:57
But they, they effectively punted on this game earlier than was, that, that seemed to be normal.
7:02
And again, the broadcast crew said nothing about this at any point, nor did any of the post-game, nor did any- No one made this remark about that. And I thought it was very weird.
7:13
And at one point I'm like, am I watching game two of the Eastern Conference Finals? What am I watching? This was like a regular season punt.
7:19
Yeah, I mean, I think it was very, uh, it was very apparent to Joe Mazzulla because he was like, "You do whatever you want to do." He's keeping everybody in. But I've seen my guys choke before. Yes.
7:28
I'm leaving all my guys in. You're right. And I, it was another way, like surreal.
7:32
Carlisle, Carlisle talking about it post-game was weird, like talking about needing to get Doug McDermott looks and stuff, and like, what are we talking about?
7:41
McDermott's in, the kid from Maryland with the rec specs is in. I'm like, okay, he's in. Eh, like you're down two-nothing to Boston. You're not getting looks at guys in the playoffs right now.
7:48
And like, you know, Doug McDermott's, you know, only been in the league for about 15 years now.
7:53
I just, I, I just found it weird, not only weird that it, that he did it, that, that he in effect said, okay, wave, wave the- Mm... white flag on this game early, but that no one remarked on it. I, no, it was crazy.
8:03
I was like, what am I- There was, I, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt that there was communication issues or something throughout the whole broadcast.
8:08
Okay, but we don't have, we don't have comms in our ears either, and we're figuring it out watching it. So I don't know if she needs somebody. I mean, I read on Twitter that Tyrese Haliburton was out of the game.
8:16
[laughs] Well, that part, yes. That part I wouldn't have known. Right, yes. Right, but the other part where you're like- Yeah, yeah. Well, the, the, the guys being out. Yeah. Yeah, you're right.
8:21
Um, Celtics up two to nothing. Now, the big story, of course, is the Halliburton injury. Hammies are pesky. Uh, again, he missed 10 games in January. If he is done, let's just go to the extreme end. We don't know yet.
8:34
We're gonna know more today. We're gonna know more tomorrow probably before game three. It could be the ultimate game time decision back in Indiana. If he's done, let's say, let's go to that extreme, Kelly.
8:44
This series is done. Series done. It's over. And the Celtics, and again, I know Porziņģis is hurt, but the Celtics will have continued their royal flush of playing teams- I, two... with just ridiculous injuries.
8:55
I, I mean, this is... The, I, trying to think of it last night. I didn't want to go Google it 'cause I'm like, look, there's probably one or two I'm forgetting that are really obvious.
9:03
But like, this is, this is as easy of a run to the NBA Finals- It's incredible... as I can ever remember. It's incredible. Now, you're not old enough to remember this. You was, probably before you were even born.
9:14
Yeah, uh, yeah. Before you were born. Um, there was, in terms of, just in terms of what the results were, the, uh, the Sixers in '83 had a, just an unbelievable run. Moses Malone famously talking about that.
9:26
I think there was a Lakers championship where they didn't lose a game until the finals. So there have been historically easier. But in terms of just the, again, to use the term, the royal flush of injuries- Right...
9:37
nothing like this, uh, that I can ever remember. By the way, the Celtics are seven-point favorites with the Halliburton injury and the, and the questionable status. That's my word.
9:47
Uh, the Celtics are seven-point favorites tomorrow night back in Indiana, 222 and a half. I don't know if you have a thought on that. I mean, I, I don't know how you can without knowing Halliburton's status.
9:57
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I don't think you can. I, I think if you kn- I, I think if he does get ruled out, um, this number will move up a bit more, Gil, but I, I'll probably still lay it with Boston.
10:07
I, I mean, this, I mean, the Pacers team just felt like they were, they were coming undone while Tyrese Haliburton [laughs] was, was g- leaving the game and out of the game, right?
10:16
Like, that was- I don't understand what I was watching. I, me, me either. But Turner, was, does Turner not able to play? Like, what's going on here? C- like, can I go back to the second quarter real quick too? Yeah.
10:24
'Cause the, one of the odd parts to me about the...
10:27
It was once they had final- once they had finally brought up the scoring drought, then they were talking for, like, several minutes like no NBA team had ever overcome a 13-point deficit- Right...
10:38
before, you know- That's right... in the second quarter.
10:41
And then it w- like we, we somehow went from that, and then it was the Halliburton injury, and by the time, by the end of the game when everybody's out of the game, I'm like, I, this feels like it's game four and the series is over.
10:51
That's... Well, I, uh, then I'm like, am I watching game two of the Eastern Conference Finals? What am I watching here? Uh, by the way, Mavericks, your Mavericks, we'll call them Kelly Billets Mavericks- Go...
10:59
five-point dogs tonight at Minnesota game two. Minnesota trying to prevent the O-two deficit, uh, on their home court, trying to even up the series at one apiece. Total's at 207. You have a play on this? I, I do not.
11:12
I'm staying away. I, I think that, look, I think Minnesota f- if you're gonna get 'em at five, if you're seeing five still, still a good bet. At five and a half, uh, probably be a pass for me.
11:21
I got, I got my Mavericks series stuff. I saw, we talked a lot about it yesterday. I think there's a lot of questions from game one on both sides.
11:28
I don't really believe the Mavericks are only gonna hit six three-pointers. I don't believe that Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns are gonna play as poorly and, a- and horribly on offense as they did all last game.
11:38
So I do expect Minnesota to look a lot better tonight. I think if you're laying five, I don't, I don't mind that at all. We'll come back. Um, I added a French Open bet. We'll get to that.
11:48
Gotta talk about this baseball game last night. It's a numbers game at Vs and the Sports Betting Network A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. This segment is brought to you by ZYN nicotine pouches.
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12:51
Warning: this product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Well, before we get to Phil Bobbitt and, uh, motorsports picks for the weekend, Kelly's reaction now to the, uh, White Sox and the Orioles is?
13:02
[laughs] Uh, basically my same reaction as when I saw the Scottie Scheffler video co- get released yesterday, and I'm like, "All right, where, where's it happening?" [laughs] Where, where's it gonna happen?
13:11
Where's it at? It's insane, dude. Wait, I must have missed it. Let me watch it again. No, no, no, it's not there. It's not there. All right, let me watch it again. I must... Oh, they're talking about this, this part.
13:22
Oh, okay. Now, think about it from a betting perspective. Most people, let's be honest, the Orioles were north of $2 favorites, so most people probably either had the Orioles in a run line- Mm-hmm...
13:32
or the Orioles as part of a money line parlay. Great call. And so they're probably thrilled with that umpire. By the way, the umpire's name is Junior Valentine, if I didn't mention. Yeah, whenever, uh...
13:41
Yeah, if you had Orioles run line last night- Oh, man... you don't get to complain about a bet for, for at least a month. That's right. Uh, all right, no time to waste.
13:50
Big motorsports weekend, and to help us with all picks in all of them, Phil Bobbitt, motorsports handicapper, staff writer for CBS SportsLine. You can follow him on Twitter @SpeedwaySteve2. That's the number two.
14:02
He cur- he comes to us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Phil, what's happening, man? Good morning, fellas. It, it, this is a holiday weekend, and we've got- [laughs]... a ton of racing to get to. Let's get it.
14:15
I just learned Memorial Day was three days ago. How about you, Kelly? When did you learn? Uh, like a week ago. Yeah, no. Yeah. [laughs] It's c- come a little early this week. But you knew 'cause you knew...
14:21
We have all these races. Okay, before we get to your picks, just one, one thing of small talk. This is kind of an interesting thing from Kyle Larson, right? Explain what he's trying to do.
14:33
Kyle Larson is trying to prove himself to be the best driver in the world, and he's done a heck of a job so far.
14:40
Uh, he's gonna be running The Double on Sunday, which is the Indianapolis 500 and then taking a, a plane ride to Charlotte and driving 600 more miles in the Cup Series. It's insane. Um, and he's crushing expectations.
14:54
He qualified fifth for the Indy 500, first time ever in one of these cars. 240 miles an hour plus, qualified fifth. It's nuts. He, he went from a 20 to one favorite, now he's about six or seven to one.
15:07
Um, and he's the favorite at the Coke 600. It's insane. Um, I would caution you not to bet this guy until you know there's gonna be no rain in Indy on Sunday.
15:18
Um, y- you know, some books, since he practiced and qualified, they'll grade it as action. So you wanna make sure that the race is gonna run before you bet this guy. Okay.
15:29
So that, that's a good note, 'cause obv- obviously betting is a, is a different thing. But you do believe he is the best driver in the world, yes? Undoubtedly.
15:36
He is, whether it's a dirt car, a sprint car, cup car, whether it's an oval or a road course, he's just the best in the world. He can drive anything. He'd probably win a race in a, on a lawnmower. I...
15:48
He's just incredible. All right. So- I, I believe if you're gonna r- do two races in the same day, though, car races, you should have to drive to the second race.
15:56
Flying, it just feels like, it feels like we're cutting corners at this point. Come on. This is, this is unbelievable that he's trying to do this, though. This is incredible. Uh, okay, so we have the Indy 500.
16:04
Uh, we got a Cup Series. We have the Coke 600. We got a BetMGM 300. We got the F1, obviously. Let's start with the Indy 500. Let's give the Indy 500 its respect and start there.
16:14
What did you, knowing the weather situation, what did you end up betting? All right. So I, I led off the card with Josef Newgarden to win. He's plus 550 at FanDuel. He's around five to one market wide.
16:26
This guy is the oval king. He's won eight out of the last 11 races on an oval in IndyCar, uh, including five in a row. He was i- in road to, to win his sixth. He was leading. Popped a tire, crashed.
16:40
So, um, but if there's no left-hand turns... Or I'm sorry, if there's no right-hand turns, Josef Newgarden is your guy.
16:47
Um, if you're a little bit more risk averse, you can take Team Penske to win, which includes Newgarden, his teammate Will Power, and Scott McLaughlin, uh, plus 140. At BetRivers you get all three of those guys.
16:59
It's a good price, even if you Dutch their, their best prices market wide. Newgarden, Power, McLaughlin, Team Penske, plus 140. That's a, a good way to bet it. I like that.
17:09
So Newgarden if you're a little frisky, a singular plus 550. But if you're a little more risk averse, Team Penske, uh, which includes him, at plus one of 40. Uh, what about match-ups? Yep, I got two of those picked out.
17:20
The first one is Colton Herta over Santino Ferrucci. This is by far my favorite play on the card for the Indy 500. Ferrucci is starting sixth, Colton Herta starting 13th.
17:32
However, Herta's pit crew is fourth on the circuit. Santino Ferrucci's is 20th. There's gonna be between eight and 10 four-tire pit stops in this race, so a lot of chances for Herta to make up the ground on, on pit road.
17:46
And plus, he turned the fastest lap in all of the practice sessions, uh, during the lead up to the Indy 500. Also, in Free Practice eight, where they turn the engines down and concentrate on race pace, he was incredible.
17:58
The car was balanced, fast. He could work traffic. I don't think it'll be long before Colton Herta surpasses Santino Ferrucci Okay, did you have- The next one Oh, I'm sorry. Go ahead. We're working out. No. Go ahead.
18:09
I was gonna say, the next one is Alexander Rossi over teammate Pato O'Ward. Uh, this one is more of a feel. I know sometimes in the NFL we handicap locker rooms. I just like Rossi's attitude here.
18:20
Uh, Team Penske locked out the front row in qualifying. Rossi was visibly annoyed that his team couldn't get in there, that front row. Um, and, and he looked ready for business.
18:30
Meanwhile, Pato O'Ward, the last time we heard from him, he was crying on the radio at the last race for the Sao Paulo Grand Prix about bad tire strategy.
18:39
Then he was in the news complaining about some annoying things in the car that they couldn't perfect. I just like Rossi to get it done. I, I, I like his attitude. All right. Then top fives and top tens follow suit?
18:51
Correct. We're gonna go Joseph Newgarden for a top five as well. A little ladder play there. And then Alex Palou, he's your, uh, championship favorite. And then we're gonna take a little Colton Herta as well, plus 165.
19:04
A little sprinkle for a top 10, we're gonna go Marcus Ericsson, plus 230. Uh, he junked his car in practice, um, so he, he's, uh, on the back foot. He barely made the race, but he won this race in 2022.
19:18
He was the runner-up last year. I like Ericsson to make some noise. If you have trouble remembering Joseph Newgarden, by the way, Kelly, the, uh, cool kids call him Joey Newbs. I don't know if you know that.
19:26
Obviously, yes. Yeah. All right. Let's go to F1 in Monaco. Uh, watch how good I am at F1. You're gonna p- you're gonna play Max Verstappen to win, right? Yeah, the price is incredible. It's minus 135.
19:38
He was, uh, slow in, in Free Practice 1 this morning, so that should get a little bit better. There's no overtaking at Monaco. It's the most boring race to watch, 'cause the cars are so big.
19:48
Um, you know, and it, it's such a tw- tight and winding circuit. There's no long DRS zones. Um, so qualifying is actually the race, and that'll be on Saturday. We like Verstappen to win.
20:00
Uh, you can probably get a, a nice plus price for him to win the pole as well, and, and that's sort of the same bet. And some match-ups there as well. Yep. We're gonna take Oscar Piastri over Carlos Sainz.
20:11
Piastri, he's had a, a heck of a couple of weeks here. The McLaren that he's driving just got a full set of upgrades. Um, and he was really, really fast this morning. Carlos Sainz, he, he drives for Ferrari.
20:23
They just brought a bunch of upgrades, too, but he's sort of the forgotten man. He doesn't have a seat there next year. Not sure how many meetings he's allowed in anymore.
20:31
Uh, they're gonna be focusing all their resources at Charles Leclerc, uh, you know, his teammate. So we like Piastri to beat Sainz. We also like George Russell to beat Lewis Hamilton. Same sort of situation here.
20:43
Hamilton's on the way out. Russell is probably getting all the good stuff. We like Russell to win that match-up as well. All right. And then Kelly, these are your favorite bets, classified finishers and safety car.
20:53
We remember this from Vegas. What do you got there? All right. It's a ridiculous price on, uh, a safety car, yes, this weekend. So we're just gonna be a, a... You know, take the other side. It's four to one.
21:04
It's supposed to be dry, so, you know, with no rain, uh, there's no reason why this safety car no can't hit. Uh, over 17 and a half classified finishers. It's hit five out of seven times this year.
21:14
Nice plus price at, at FanDuel and BetRivers and all over the market. Might as well not root for chaos. Okay. Now, Coke 600. We got about a minute here, Phil.
21:24
Um, let's run through everything you got for the Coke 600, the longest race of the year. Longest race of the year. So we're gonna take Martin Truex 11 to 1 at FanDuel, and then a ladder play on him at a top five.
21:36
Uh, he's third in our power rating in sim metrics, fourth in green flag speed this year, fourth-best pit, pit crew on and off time. Uh, lots of pit stops. It's a long race. So we like him, uh, in those markets.
21:47
We also like Ty Gibbs over Ross Chastain. Another, uh, sim play. He's eighth in green flag speed. Ross is 11th. We have Ty projected three spots ahead, and just a much better pit crew. All right.
21:59
You wanna vomit out some Xfinity plays before we go? I lied. Let's do it. Uh, in Xfinity, we're taking Austin Hill over Noah Gregson. Gregson's one of our favorite guys.
22:08
He likes to drink beer and climb fences, but, um, he's driving for a brand-new team. This is their very first race. Austin Hill is the points leader. Best pit crew on the circuit.
22:17
You gotta get down on Austin Hill over Noah Gregson. Same sort of, of mindset here. We're taking Cole Custer over Chase Elliott. Truck Series bonus, Connor Mosack over Jake Garcia, Brett Moffitt over Tyler Ankrom.
22:29
That's all I got. Phil, you're awesome. Go, uh, drink beer and climb fences. [laughs] My favorite pastime. America. [laughs] America. [laughs] Phil Bobbitt, everybody. Thank you so much.
22:41
Uh, @SpeedwaySteve2 on Twitter from CBS Sportsline, uh, giving us a bevy of motorsports picks. Paul Carr on soccer next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:55
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23:16
The crown is yours. We get tweets at Betting The Book. Isaac Myers, uh, "2001 Lakers went 15 to 1 in their championship run. Probably the most dominant run I've ever seen. Admittedly, I am biased toward the Lakers.
23:27
They swept everyone until losing game one of the finals at home to the Sixers, the Iverson walkover- Mm, never forgotten... of Tyronn Lue," which Kelly has, uh, of course, uh, made into a thing on tennis. That's right.
23:39
That's right. Um- Allen Iverson not injured during that series. Isaac Meyer also @ShabbatShalom. Do you know what? Whenever I'm on with Dave Ross, that's always what I first say to him. I go, "Dave, Shabbat Shalom."
23:48
[laughs] That's this little joke we have. Okay. Rick, uh, Rick Olier. Rick Olier, "Gilly, it was clearly interference in the Sox-Orioles game.
23:56
Henderson was dragged to the ground by Vaughn, and I even heard that he ripped his pants beyond repair." [laughs] Yes, it was- [laughs]... it was terrible. Uh, Trip Tepper.
24:04
I'm with you here, Trip, said, "Foun Stroud 21 to 1 in Q2 and Arcots 13 to 1 to win Q4." He was obviously listening to the podcast, too. Yeah. Sinner's health will be the story of Q4. Let's go. I'm with you, Trip.
24:15
I believe that is a massive Massive story. I don't think that's, uh, stepping out on a limb, but it will determine so much.
24:22
Uh, Jason Stark: "I beg to differ with your guest on Kyle Larson as the best driver in the world.
24:26
He's great, and I love him, but Tony Stewart is the only driver to complete all 1100 miles of the double, uh, on, great on dirt and is, uh, now drag racing on NHRA."
24:37
So I guess I can't even say I think he meant today, 'cause he's saying he's still racing, drag racing. Uh- Yeah, I got a problem with the flying thing still.
24:44
Like, if, if you're that great, they'll hold up the race for you. You know what I mean? That's kind of like Scheffler last weekend. They hel- I mean, they held up golf.
24:50
Maybe they used weather as an excuse, but they held up golf. Uh, Buddhist Man has always shopped around. He got, uh, Struve Q2 21 to 1 on Advocate Skirmish. So there you go.
25:00
Uh, Jamie Leyva, quote, "Drinking beer and climbing fences was all the analysis I needed. I'm all in. If you ain't first, you're last. Happy Friday, gentlemen." Happy Friday to you as well.
25:08
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he comes to us from the Heartland, some call it the Flyover States. I won't do that, though. I'm a little more sensitive. Topeka, Kansas, Paul Carr, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
25:18
He comes to us from True Media Networks, and he's the host of the exte- uh, the Expected, pardon me, the Expected Value Podcast. How you doing, Paulie? I'm well, Gil. I appreciate it.
25:26
We people in the Midwest, we're people, too, darn it. That's right. I always found that to be... I wonder how they feel about that, uh, characterization.
25:34
Uh, okay, before we get into your picks here, and we got some FA, FA Cup coming up, so you're gonna have to do that whole explanation. Let's do a little, uh, review of your Premier League season, shall we?
25:43
How did you do in the end? Yeah. Had a pretty good season on the whole. Ended up, up about six units on the whole for the, all the picks on Vsin. Uh, really struggled early.
25:53
I was down about nine units at the turn of the calendar, and then went on a good run the latter half of the season to finish up six units on the Premier League so far. Nicely done. Or so far. The season's over, yeah.
26:02
What, uh, what futures did you hit? What didn't you hit? One thing I hit was Arsenal top four, and that was minus 200. Um, so that wasn't a big one, but it was something. Uh, I do...
26:12
I had Arsenal to win the title at plus 550. I do feel like this was, this is one of those situations where I think it was the, it was a right pick, it was a good pick, it was proven right in some ways.
26:22
Because Arsenal, I mean, the whole theory was Arsenal's got another gear. If something goes wrong with City, Arsenal is by far the second-best team to win the title.
26:32
Kevin De Bruyne didn't play for half the season for City, but City just got through it.
26:36
And when they made the turn of the calendar and they're only, I think, five points behind Arsenal with, you know, arguably their best player had missed half the season, that was kind of the trouble point, uh, for Arsenal.
26:45
But, you know, Arsenal was better. They were better than they were last year. So I, I feel like it was the right play, it just didn't win this time. Yeah. Uh, Valet at the building, Kim, not happy. Good for Billy.
26:54
But he, he knew it. He's like, "Ah, I've known for a month they're not gonna win." He's, he's not even, he's nonplussed by the whole thing. He's like- Yeah. Right... most defeatist fan ever.
27:01
All the other valets are calling him Kimberly, which I don't think is very nice, uh, because of this. That's not nice. Come on. That's not very nice. Uh, okay. FA Cup.
27:08
Explain to the American sports fan, 'cause soccer discombobulates. Got all these national leagues, then you got this Champions League, then you got these other things. [laughs] What is the FA Cup? Yeah.
27:19
Wait, wait, there's another trophy. Uh, so this is, I, I, again, I like to use college basketball as the example.
27:25
Imagine there were a single tournament for, like, every college basketball team in the country, even beyond Division I.
27:30
So this is a knockout tournament with, like, 750 clubs in Europe, and some of them are, you know, at the very lowest levels, it's, you know, Joe's Pub or whatever it is that has a team and, uh, you know, semi-pro at best that gets in.
27:43
But then eventually the Premier League teams come in later in the competition, and they've won, uh, every one since, mid-2000s, I think, when Portsmouth, I think, won a title.
27:52
Uh, but anyway, so it's essentially a big knockout tournament that a Premier League team wins. So we're down to the final here.
27:56
So at, so at some, at some point, though, the Joe's Pub team has dreams of beating a Premier League club team? Is that basically what this is? Dreams? Yeah. Yeah. More likely. Yeah.
28:05
You know, a team like that would have to win a lot of games to get there. Sure.
28:07
The, the big upsets are usually, you know, second, third, maybe fourth division teams in England knocking off a Premier League team in, you know, the fifth round or something like that. Okay. FA Cup final on Saturday.
28:18
What you got? Man City and Man U. Yeah. It's a, it's a Manchester derby. It's, uh,
28:24
a weird one in the sense that you've got a, the Premier League champ, Man City, against a Manchester United team that while they're crosstown rivals and historically good, pretty much a mess this season.
28:35
United did finish eighth, but their underlying numbers had them as low as, like, 15th. You know, they had a negative goal difference. A lot of, you know, late goals to salvage points.
28:43
They're really good in one-goal games, which, you know, just like baseball, teams run hot or cold in one-run games. That's, you know, not necessarily sustainable. Similar thing in soccer.
28:53
So I mean, this is a don't overthink it for me, and I'm just taking Man City. I'm laying the goal and a half at minus 120. I got it a little better earlier in the week, but minus 120 is where I'm seeing most places now.
29:04
Take the better team. I mean, City's beaten United twice this season, 3-nil and 3-1. And when they played in March, uh, City outshot them 27 to 3. Just think it's that kind of game.
29:16
City's won nine straight games by multiple goals. United just, report just came out like an hour ago, they're probably gonna fire their manager, win or lose in this match, so that's never great. Oh, that's never great.
29:25
Um- Yeah. No... not, not a good thing. So yeah, I'm just taking City. I'll lay the goal and a half.
29:29
If United manages to keep it close or if they, you know, salvage some late goal to cut it to one or something, you kind of shrug your shoulders and tip your cap to them.
29:36
All right, Man City, pardon me, minus the goal and a half versus Man U in the FA Cup. Manchester derby, the final on Saturday. Then Sunday, the championship playoff final. That has a very generic name.
29:48
Explain that to us. [laughs] Yeah, it's, I think this is poorly named personally. I'm sure some English people will yell at me, but the championship is the second division in England.
29:57
So the top three, or three teams every year get promoted up to the Premier League. First place, second place, and then third through sixth go through a playoff. So this is the final of that playoff.
30:07
And this is the, they call it the richest match in sports because the winner of this game that gets promotion, it's worth $300 million.
30:16
You know, may- that might be conservative because there's, I mean, there's guaranteed money in TV deals, you know, plus whatever else you get from sponsorship, ticket sales, merch, you know, all that stuff.
30:25
So this, so this is to- They're gonna make that much more for your club... or put otherwise, this is to replace Luton Town, Burnley, and Sheffield United. Yep. Gotcha. Okay. Yep. Yes.
30:34
So Leicester City and Ipswich Town were first and second in the championship. They've been promoted, and now Leeds and Southampton are playing for that last promotion spot. So it's 90 minutes, maybe extra time.
30:45
Wait, so- It's worth $300-plus million. You have to just pause for that. That, there is nothing... I, I can't imagine there's anything globally with the pressure of this game.
30:54
Oh, it's cra- I mean, this, I mean, Paul- No doubt... this is the dream for the Wrexhams out there and the- Yes... a- and the Crawley towns. Crawleys. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it's that.
31:02
You know, w- and what they've been is just, you know, two, three levels higher. Right. Four levels higher compared to what they're at, and yeah, just the money at stake is astronomically more.
31:10
It's, it really is nuts that, that so much is at stake in a single match that can obviously turn so easily on one, you know, funny bounce, one card, one referee decision, whatever it is. All right.
31:20
So you are playing a total, and it's not your typical Paul Carr total. No, I mean, th- this is, I don't know how many years in a row I've played this in the championship final, to be honest.
31:30
It's, I might be out of fingers. Under two and a half. Uh, I played at minus 110 earlier in the week. I think it's at minus 120 or so now. Under two and a half goals.
31:38
This is a 90-minute bet, so if it goes to extra time, those goals don't count. Again, it's kind of a knee-jerk reaction. The last four championship finals have had two or fewer goals in regulation, and 10 of the last 11.
31:51
So it's that, which, you know, narratively it makes sense. The tension, you don't wanna mess up. You don't wanna get blown out, keep it close.
31:59
Uh, plus this match up specifically, Leeds has the best defense in the championship this season. They give up the fewest expected goals, fewest shots, et cetera.
32:07
Uh, one of Leeds' attackers, Patrick Bamford, is out with an injury, so that might slow them down a l- down a little bit. But yeah, just, you know, one-nil, everyone's thrilled. Is it one-one, go to extra time?
32:17
You know, it's hard to see a team pressing in the last minute or two to try to get something when you know extra time and maybe penalties are looming.
32:24
So this is writing the history as much as anything, under two and a half, minus 120. Gotcha.
32:29
Okay, so FA Cup final tomorrow, Man City minus goal and a half versus Man U, and then the championship playoff final on Sunday for an estimated 300 million really is what it could mean to them.
32:39
Leeds, Southampton under two and a half goals. So just to clarify on your way out, so Wrexham and Crawley, which are now in League One, this is not this table, correct? Next year? Correct. Yeah.
32:51
So, so it's Premier League, Championship, League One- Wow... League Two. Okay. So they are two below Premier League now. Below price. [laughs] Oh. Don't ever bet against Preston Johnson, Paul.
33:01
I'm just gonna tell you that right now. I, I will not. I've learned my lesson. Yes. [laughs] Yes. Yeah. Have you been betting against Preston? [laughs] No. Oh, okay. No. Definitely not. Wow.
33:10
Sounds like you might have been. Thank you, Paul. Appreciate all the explanations, and the bets, of course. You bet. Have a good one. Paul Carr, everybody, @PaulCarr, C-A-R-R, on Twitter.
33:18
Do we have some instant offense from Legace next? Oh, yeah. John Legace of the Microwave on MLB next. It's a numbers game. The Sports Betting Network.
33:27
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
33:45
Back on a numbers game, show presented by ZYN nicotine pouches, America's number one nicotine pouch. Find out more at zyn.com. [laughs] It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin.
33:53
Oh, by the way, check out our website as well, vsin.com. Should always mention that. Best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, odds by state, betting tools, betting guides.
34:01
Kelly, I don't know if you know this, but on the, uh, vsin.com homepage today- Oh, what's there? Uh, WNBA best bets with Tyler Shoemaker. Okay. Uh, Johnny Lazarus on the NHL. Zachary Cohen's all over the French Open.
34:12
French Open begins on Sunday. Cannot wait. Adam Burke with baseball daily. Steve Makinen with the top splits and trends in the NBA playoffs. All of that, vsin.com. Check it out.
34:24
Um, I don't know if you, uh, watched the, uh, the Stars and the Oilers last night. Game one of the Western Conference finals in the NHL, um, Oilers went up two to nothing.
34:32
Tyler Seguin scored two goals, one with about 3:30 left in, uh, the third period to, uh, eventually force overtime, and they go to overtime. The first overtime was pretty unbelievable.
34:44
It was a double minor all on Connor McDavid, so four-minute penalty. The Oilers are able to kill it off, and then later in the first overtime, Connor McDavid has a point-blank,
34:57
Connor McDavid, best player in hockey, right? Point-blank shot to get it by Ottinger into the, uh, into the net, and Hank Lundqvist did a great explanation of this afterwards.
35:08
But he thinks, like, McDavid, like, hesitated for, like, a second to second i- or a second and a half, and Lundqvist, of course, g- uh, you know, Hall of Fame goalie, he said it's because he thought that Ottinger's stick was still airborne.
35:22
And so McDavid, the instinct for players is to wait for the stick to come down to the ice and then go over the stick- Right... instead. Which makes sense. I- yeah, I guess 'cause that's a human instinct. Instinct.
35:32
Gravity. What's that? Gravity. Stick's coming down. Well, yes, but the instinct- Then you gotta go over. [laughs] Okay, maybe you should interject. [laughs] And then,
35:41
um, and then, uh, yeah, so basically when the stick came down, it was too late, and it immediately made contact, and it was an unbelievable save.
35:49
The, the end of the story is then it go to a second overtime, and literally in the first minute, Connor McDavid makes amends, redirects, Oilers win. It was awesome. I saw most- Yeah... of the overtime.
35:58
I, I missed the game tying goal, though, i- in the third period. Seguin, yeah. That, that was, that was the part, and if you, the, the, the Stanley Cup playoffs are so good and it- They're so good...
36:07
it infuriates me, though, when you miss a goal, where I'm like, "Wait, what happened? What happened?" Well, the thing is- "And now we're in overtime also"...
36:12
especially juxtaposed, we, you and I went the whole first segment talking about what were we watching in the Eastern Conference- Yeah... finals in the NBA last night.
36:18
Uh, to help us along with hockey, Jonathan Davis is kind enough to, uh, hang out with us. He's the host of Ice Cap on SiriusXM NHL, host of Show Me the Money, a hockey betting podcast.
36:27
You can follow him on Twitter at westcoastHKY. That's a cool way they say hockey. Uh, courtesy of the Progressive Gas Line. Jonathan, how you doing, man? Good. Well, that's the Canadian spelling of hockey.
36:38
Didn't you know that? H-K-Y, that's right. Of c- of course, yes. Yeah. [laughs] The branding, yes. [laughs] Um, so this is the third consecutive home game one that the Stars have lost, correct?
36:49
Obviously, it, it hasn't ultimately been a problem for them in the first two rounds. Do you think it might be here? Well, it's not only the third consecutive home game, Gil.
36:59
It's the seventh consecutive game one that they've lost. They've lost five of the last six games that have gone to overtime in game one. Um, but I don't think it's problematic. I, I...
37:10
Look, I thought this was gonna be a six-game series, um, at, at minimum. And for me, I don't care how you get there, and, and I just... You know, I... The more you talk to players, momentum doesn't go from game to game.
37:22
It goes from shift to shift. So if you're, if you're still believing in Dallas, I would be grabbing the series price right now- Yeah... at Dallas at plus 160. That was what I was gonna ask you.
37:33
We, uh, we're showing plus 165 over at DraftKings. Always shop around for these, but the Stars down one-nothing. Yeah. Um, well, I'll say it again, I've said it a million times, but I give credit to, uh, Stats by Lopez.
37:43
You know, we... We're more familiar in this country, um, well, I mean, it's a bigger fan base for the NBA in best-of-sevens, and we know how that goes.
37:50
Um, 80% of favorites get through the NBA p- uh, NBA best-of-seven series, much of that because the first round is so top-heavy. For 80% of favorites to get through in hockey, uh, you'd have to play a best-of-51.
38:07
[laughs] That was the old Stats by Lopez stat. Like, it's... There, there's the randomness of that.
38:11
So even though some hockey handicappers can show you that home ice matters, the point is, is that there is a random nature to it.
38:18
And so I guess I can't say at some point if the Stars keep going down one-nothing, you, you're playing with fire too much. It's, it's gonna burn you, but kinda not, I guess, here. Well, look, I...
38:29
First off, come playoff time, to me, I throw home ice out the window. Yeah. Because in the regular season, guys, it matters.
38:35
Teams, you're at home, you're getting a team on a back-to-back, you're getting on a team that's playing three games in four nights on the road.
38:41
Come playoff time, we're both, both teams are on the same schedule, so, you know, no advantage anymore to me.
38:47
And I, and I'm not one that buys last change in hockey is, is a big advantage because teams right now are just far better constructed and far more talented. So I don't really think it's a big deal.
38:57
I, I think Dallas, you know, I love Dallas at plus money on the road when this series shifts to Edmonton, so I don't really think it- it's much of a factor.
39:05
But look, you know, Dallas found themselves down two-nothing to Vegas in round one, and, you know, rallied and, a- a- and won that series.
39:12
So, you know, it wasn't like they played a bad game i- in, in, in game number one, but they just, you know, they were on- Yeah... the wrong end of a bad bounce. That's absolutely right. Um, okay.
39:22
So you would advocate the Stars here at the adjusted series price. Plus 165 is what we're showing at DraftKings. Uh, okay, let's go to tonight.
39:28
Now, the game one in the Eastern Conference Finals between the Panthers and the Rangers, not nearly as exciting of a game as, uh, that one last night.
39:35
Panthers won that first game three to nothing against the Rangers, take a one to nothing lead. Um, tonight, Rangers the slightest of favorites, and I mean slightest, I mean a couple pennies.
39:46
Really, it's a coin flip tonight in game two. The Panthers are the series favorite. They're a $3 favorite right now on the adjusted price. You have several plays, a few plays in this game, starting with the side.
39:57
Who do you like? Y- Well, I like the Rangers. One, you know, let's take the zigzag approach that many like to talk about in the NBA.
40:04
And, you know, look, you know, Paul Maurice, the Florida Panthers coach, talked about the fact that, you know, he expects the Rangers' best game tonight in the series. They got pushed around in game one.
40:13
Uh, and here's the other thing with Florida, guys. Uh, you know, they were one of the... They were the best road team in the regular season in the NHL.
40:21
Now, the Rangers are just a slight favorite, but the Florida Panthers were only three and nine as a road dog. I had them at 22 and 6 as a road favorite during the regular season.
40:30
And when I checked the, the bet splits on VSiN before I came on, uh, I saw that Florida was getting 34% bets, but only 18% of the money.
40:39
So there, there lies why we're seeing that line move, that, you know, Florida opened up at about minus 115. Now, it's now Rangers at minus 112. All right, so you're on the Rangers tonight.
40:50
You also have a play on the total. Yeah, you know, [laughs] I'm going over five and a half.
40:55
You know, coming in- into game one, the over was 18 one-and-one between these two teams, and that one under hit six years ago, and the one push was on six. I, I just...
41:06
You know, look, the Rangers' MO has been when they win, I think they're 42 and 1 when they score four goals or more. I know Sergei Bobrovsky has been very good. I just think we're gonna get the Rangers' best game.
41:18
I'm gonna go back to the well one more time with the total going over. With the total going over, the five and a half. Okay, and then, uh, a prop bet or two here. What do you got? Oh, no, you have a parlay.
41:29
Well- A prop parlay. [laughs] I do. Wow.
41:31
We have a parlay because the numbers are very, are, are, are, are very juicy if you play them individually, but Vincent Trocheck, uh, over two and a half shots on goal, and Sam Reinhart over two and a half shots on goal.
41:42
You can get that at about, I think it was, like, around minus 120, or maybe it was plus money. I can't, can't remember off the top of my head. But Trocheck's 8 of 11 games have gone, he's had at least three shots.
41:52
And for s- for Reinhart, it's 10 of... or 11 of 12 games over two and a half shots on goal. So I, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll play those two guys in a parlay tonight, uh, with the prop play. Okay.
42:02
When we had you on before the finals, you said, uh, you thought Panthers and the Stars would go to the finals. I can't remember who you said you thought would win. Refresh my memory if you would. I said Dallas.
42:13
You said Dallas, okay. Um, so maybe you're not the guy for this question, but, uh, I'm looking at Conn Smythe. Who was your Conn Smythe pick then?
42:20
Well, I mean, for, for Dallas, I would go with their defenseman Miro Heiskanen. Uh, he's a guy that never leaves the ice. He played over... He's been averaging over 28 minutes a night.
42:29
He is first, uh, in time on ice, uh, with g- who, uh, for players still in the playoffs. He was number two heading into the conference final. The other n- guys in the top 10 are all out.
42:40
He played over 29 minutes last night. He leads the Stars. Uh, I think he s- he still may lead the Stars in points, or maybe he's tied right now.
42:48
On the Florida side, you know, I, I think Sergei Bobrovsky, who I wasn't leaning to earlier, may be the way to go. He, I think, is at nine to one, and I think... So if you like Florida- Yeah...
42:58
um, you're gonna get a better number on Bobrovsky. I like Sasha Barkov, their, their leading scorer, but there is a good n- you know, the, the number is really good on Bobrovsky. That's where I was going with that.
43:09
You, uh, you anticipated the pass. Um, 'cause Bobrovsky- Yeah... right now at DraftKings is actually better than that. He's 11 to one. And, you know, Conn Smythe goes to goalies, um, fairly frequently.
43:20
Vasilevskiy won a few years back, right? Um, so at 11 to one, if you are a Panthers backer, right, you gotta be correlated on these things.
43:27
So if you're a Panthers backer, that just seems like f- for a team that is more democratic, right, um, b- outside of goaltender, that that might be the guy, 11 to one.
43:37
Yeah, the offense has been pretty, pretty much spread out. Now, on the Rangers side, you know, really quickly here, guys, Vincent Trocheck was the guy that I grabbed at 30 to one.
43:45
And if it's Edmonton, you know, it should be Leon Draisaitl for me. That, to me, n- no, no question, Leon Draisaitl's the guy to grab for Conn Smythe. All right. Uh, really appreciate it, Jonathan. Enjoy the games.
43:57
Good luck on all the bets. Thanks for all of those tonight. Always a pleasure, guys. Have a great rest of your, your day. You too.
44:03
Jonathan Davis, once again, on the Rangers, on the over tonight, and on the Sam Reinhart, Vincent Trocheck, uh, parlay, both over two and a half SOGs. Kelly, you love SOGs. The SOG parlay, baby. Let's go.
44:14
By the way, I failed to mention on that four-minute, uh, double minor, they, they hit two posts, the, uh, Stars last night. [laughs] Not shots on goal 'cause they hit the posts.
44:33
That's right. [upbeat music]
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