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May 27, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 27, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 27, 2024
00:00
44:25
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Monday morning to you.
0:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, visa.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Midlin- Hey... on this, on this Memorial Day 2024.
0:22
Everybody's got their bunting out for baseball. Baseball not with the full schedule somehow on Memorial Day. I don't know why they don't have the full schedule anymore. Yeah. They really should. It's odd.
0:30
It's 11 games, but it's not the 15 that we used to, uh, uh, be accustomed to. Uh, on the show today, Jay Cohn on the NHL playoffs. Get ready NHL, you're about to take center stage for a long time, feels like.
0:43
Um, and we'll talk to Mike Somich at the end of the show today. We'll take some, uh, we'll have a baseball break with Mark Borchardt here coming up momentarily. Uh, Kelly, June 6th, that is when the NBA finals begins.
0:56
It is set in stone. It is not this Thursday, it is next Thursday. That is 10 days from now. We potentially, potentially could be done with the conference finals tomorrow night. Yep. That would be a nine-day
1:11
rest until an NBA finals, which they set in stone. You and I were talking about this off air before the show.
1:17
They set that in stone, um, maximize advertising dollars to make sure that there's no rest disparity for one team or the other heading into the NBA finals. But it does seem like this is becoming more normal.
1:30
Um, there has never been two conference sweeps in the history of the NBA playoffs. Last year was the closest we got, where the Nuggets swept the Lakers. Pretty competitive as far as sweeps go.
1:42
Yeah, it's very much like, [laughs] like these two series right now, yeah. That's right. Like, like the Mavericks-T Wolves.
1:47
Um, the, the Nuggets swept the Lakers, and if you recall, the Heat were on the cusp of sweeping the Celtics until the Celtics forced a game seven, and then the Heat smoked them at the Garden. Yep.
1:58
By the way, uh, if you're wondering how many best of sevens in the entirety of the NBA playoffs have ever gotten to a game seven like Boston did to Miami last year, the answer is, Kelly, I have that. You ready for this?
2:14
Boop, boop, boop, boop, boop. Only four teams out of 154 occurrences have ever even forced a game seven. Now let me ask you this. What's that? Say that stat again. So 154 times in the history of the NBA there have been
2:30
three to nothing leads. Okay. Okay. That was a three nothing lead. Pardon me. Yeah. So to force a game seven happens four times. To force a game seven after a three to nothing lead. Okay.
2:38
Only four times has it happened, and one of those was Boston getting Miami to a home court game seven last year. And then Miami- But zero times has that, [laughs] yeah.
2:45
But zero times, O and four in those four games, to actually get the four-game comeback.
2:53
Um, so I, I ask you to begin the show, and by the way, this is the, a reminder for the old schoolers out there, 'cause those of us of a certain age, we're, we're getting back to the NBA finals,
3:02
for the last decade we've been back to a two-two-one-one-one format, just like the rest of the playoffs. From 1985, Kelly, to 2014,
3:12
the NBA playoffs switched, if you remember, to a two-three-two, and the reason for that was in the '80s, Boston and LA were such stalwart dynasties that David Stern at some point decided, you know what?
3:24
Was it David Stern or Larry O'Brien? I think it was David Stern by that time.
3:26
Uh, decided we're gonna go two-three-two because the travel is such between Boston and LA, coast to coast, and inevitably one team on each coast is gonna get there, that we ought to minimize the travel by the time the NBA finals gets around.
3:39
Um, Adam Silver, when he took over for, uh, for David Stern, was like, "Yeah, let's just go back to two-two-one-one-one," 'cause it's not always gonna be coast, coastal teams. Yeah.
3:49
Uh, that was always one and two where they... It, it wasn't as fair, right?
3:53
You steal one of those, if you're the, if you're the team with three home games, if you steal one of those first two, you got a chance to close it out on your home court. I thought that as well.
4:01
I thought that it somehow swung a strange advantage to the team- Yeah... without home court advantage because of that format. Okay, so we have Dallas three-O over Minnesota.
4:11
Congratulations to you, 'cause you got those Dallas futures tickets. We obviously have Boston three to nothing over Indi- or over Indiana in a series where Indiana did not have Tyrese Haliburton for game three.
4:21
We don't know if he's gonna be available quite yet for game four. But Indiana could very easily be up two to one in this series. Mm-hmm.
4:29
And then the Dallas-Minnesota series, they've all been competitive, but, you know, I was texting, uh, Felika and Will yesterday. I was like, "Well, Luka and, Luka and, uh, Kyrie gonna do their thing down the stretch.
4:38
You know it's coming, right?" And Minnesota could be up three-O, though. Like, they could be legit be up three-O. So, so this is my question.
4:44
So in the Indiana case, right, getting back to the format things we were just talking about, five and seven are still in Boston. So even if you can picture Tyrese comes back, they get game four- Yeah...
4:53
you still got two games on the road, even though obviously the Heat, uh, you know, s- stu- stubbed their noses at that last year. Um, in the case of Minnesota and Dallas, if you s- if you can steal game four- Yeah.
5:07
Yeah... you still get five and seven at home, and it is a kind of shifting of pressure in a really weird way to Dallas. No, I, I, I hear you. I think that was a- So could it happen is the question. It-
5:21
Do we have a puncher's chance or no? I mean, look, I got, you know I got Mavericks futures tickets, and it's, you could tell me that it's, I'm safe. 154 and O is the history, right? Yep. I'm good.
5:32
It doesn't, I, I'm not feeling that way yet. I think that's more of a bettor's mindset, right? Although these have cashed. Like, I, I'm not thinking that way yet.
5:39
Um, but I will say as, as someone holding Mavericks futures tickets, oh boy, did game two and game three both feel huge. I mean, all, I mean, all three games, right?
5:50
But to steal one of those ga- or, you know, to beat Minnesota in Minnesota on a Luka Dončić last second shot, to steal a win there, and then, I mean, when Minnesota kind of surged back in that game l- last night and, and, and then Kyrie and Luka took over in clutch time were just amazing as they have been all series.
6:09
I, same thing, right? Like, just to be able to walk out of there with a wi- with a win in a very, very tight game felt massive because, because of that, right? If they...
6:17
You steal one or two in Dallas, it's a brand new series all over again. Indiana 90 to 1 to come all the way back again. We know about Tyrese. Games five and seven will be in Boston.
6:29
I'm looking at a book where Minnesota is south of 12 to 1. Is that... Are you serious on this?
6:34
You gotta shop around for these obviously, but [laughs] I'm looking at one where they're south of 12 to 1 to come all the way back. Okay, whatever. That's not a good price.
6:42
Um- I don't even think DraftKings has it posted. Oh, no, I'm s- I'm looking at it- Yeah... uh, in a certain spot here. [laughs] Yeah, DraftKings- Um-... doesn't even have the Pacers-Celtics series priced up. Yeah.
6:52
I, uh... Let me just ask you this. And yes, Timberwolves 10 to 1. Yeah, like, whoa, g- really? Yeah. That's all you're giving me? Yeah, that's all you're getting. It's 0 and 154. 0 and 154. All you're getting is 10 to 1.
7:03
10 to 1. Yeah, that doesn't seem like a good bet today. What do you think? And, like, Karl-Anthony Towns seems to have forgotten how to play basketball. Okay. So most of you... You and me were... You were...
7:10
You and I were texting yesterday. And I think it started by me saying, "Has there ever been," and yes, we're gonna bring this up one more time, 'cause I haven't brought it up in a couple weeks.
7:19
Has there ever been an award given to a player, I'm talking about Rudy Gobert winning Defensive Player of the Year, that was so quickly and resoundingly and repeatedly shown to be utter nonsense
7:33
as it has in this postseason? Like, the people who voted for Gobert, I'm not talking about them admitting it publicly. Yeah. I'm talking about when it's them and their pillow- Right...
7:42
as they sit and their final thoughts of the day. They have to know this is, this is a sham, right? Yeah, you would think so. Y- y- you would think so. I, I think this, this series, like...
7:51
I mean, again, we were texting all this yesterday, but I... Like, this series goes even beyond that to me because it's... You're talking Coach of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, best defensive team by a...
8:03
W- remember, we talked about this before the series. I brought it up multiple times.
8:05
The defensive ratings at the r- regular season, the difference between where Minnesota was and the second-best team was the same difference between second and 13th. Yeah. That's how good Minnesota was all year.
8:18
They got that going for them team defense-wise, the Defensive Player of the Year that we all gave a lot of credit for the team defense too, right? Coach of the Year, and they're getting dismantled- There are-...
8:28
by the same offensive action that all- There are-... that Kyrie and Luka are running time and time again. There are no adjustments. There have not been adjustments. Uh, it's- T- they've, they've tried things, Gil.
8:38
It's... Nothing's working. Nothing is working. But it, it shows that, like, Gobert, okay, you're a great rim protector. But you can't do anything else, as Luka so clearly showed also.
8:47
Like, can't, definitely can't put him on an island one-on-one with those guys. At the- Oh, my gosh... at the end of game two, the m- the greatest example of that, um, as he just floundered trying to keep up with Luka.
8:57
By the way, those post-game interviews with Kyrie after game one and Luka after game two were some of the greatest television interviews you'll ever see after a game, where both Luka and Kyrie sort of sheepishly when asked about, you know, "How do you, how do you fight this defense?"
9:12
And they both kind of with, like, a wry smile quietly, "Well, we take what, w- what, uh... You know, we just adjust to what they give us." Luka even came out and [laughs] said, "Oh, I'm not doing very well right now.
9:23
I'm not very, uh..." I don't know if he said "fast" in his, in his somewhat broken English, whatever. He goes, "I'm faster than him though." Yeah, yeah. Um, and- Chris Finch, Coach of the Year nominee. Nominee, sorry.
9:32
Yeah, he didn't win it. Dags. Thanks. Dags. Sorry, guys. Yeah. Um, so I just... Y- yes, he's a good rim defender, but, like, the, the, the drop-down defense and the constant alley-oops.
9:42
What was that stat we gave, uh, after game two? Which was, remember, in halftime of game two, the T-Wolves were outscoring the Mavericks at the half from behind the arc 33 to 6. Yep. Yep. But they were only up three.
9:57
Why? We said this last week. Because they have 10 dunks. So it's like... And, and, and now, okay, let's just throw this in the mix, 'cause I wanna just sort of think. I mean, does Minnesota have a shot here? Lively.
10:10
We don't know. I- that's huge. That's huge, right? That is huge. Huge. So that takes away some of that. Yes.
10:15
The adjustment that the Thunder had made against the, uh, the Mavericks was we'll actually crunch Luka and Kyrie. If you can beat us, you have to beat us with threes.
10:25
And you and I were talking about how PJ Washington did, right? Yes. Yeah. And those guys did. But we were talking about how someh- in, in our basketball viewing and basketball analyst brain,
10:35
okay, if you beat them by the three, we all get it. I don't even care if it's wide open. But there is something so laughably ridiculous about getting beaten by 10 lobs and alley-oops, right?
10:47
Where you dunk it over them every time. I mean, I think that as a viewer and a fan- Gil... I, I would think if you're playing on the court, it's gotta be even worse. I, I mean, [laughs] we were talking about it.
10:56
Like, if by the third time I've had a lob thrown on me, like, I'd be, I'd be tackling- Just hug 'em... guys running- Hug 'em... yeah, yeah, hugging, hugging these centers running towards the basket. Here's...
11:06
I s- I saw this stat this morning from ESPN. Mavs have 48 alley-oop dunks this postseason. Rest of the NBA combined, 59. Yeah. Says it all. I mean, it's, it's...
11:16
They're, they're doing it time and time again over Rudy Gobert. I, I... It's, it's wild. And again, talk, talking about adjustments.
11:23
They adjusted offensively to that, 'cause it's not like the Mavs were playing all season like that, right? A, the, a little bit more since the All-Star break. Right. But no, not to this level.
11:31
Um, we'll talk more about this. Largely based on how I have... A- anything that might have been right by me was torpedoed by injury, and then all the other stuff was just wrong.
11:42
And then I'll ask about the final weekend of the regular season. Baseball break next, though. Borchard, the Acuna injury, the impact next.
11:49
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. It says we're so close to crowning an NBA champ. You know, after that delay, uh, up to the NBA finals. Then we will.
12:07
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12:27
Gil Alexander, Kelly Billin, uh, we get tech- Kelly, in addition to tweets. Are you aware of that? Uh- I'll get many tweets today. [laughs] Weath- Weatherman Chris Falica.
12:36
Cr- weatherman Chris Falica, uh, weatherman Chris Falica does confirm, because he's a very savvy international traveler. Yes, he is. He says, "Yes, very rainy this time of year in Paris." Thanks, Chris. Thank you, Chris.
12:47
Uh- I lo- I love when I just ask questions on the, on the air too that I could, like, easily Google. You know, and be like, "Is it rainy this time of year, Gil?" [laughs] That's right.
12:56
So what are the prices of onions in Madagascar? [laughs] He wants to know. Uh, Michael Monosono, Circuit Booby Prize winner, uh, year one, $100,000.
13:04
He said, "These playoffs have just installed Wemby as a minus 200 favorite for defensive player of the year when the odds come out next year." Oh, that's okay. "Gobert eight to one." Uh, if it's minus 200,
13:16
how much can you get down? I don't, I don't even know. You're only fighting injury at that point. I don't even know what they're gonna, what they're gonna price it at. I have no clue either.
13:23
By the way, uh, I mean- I, I feel like it, it's not gonna be that short, but I don't know
13:29
Uh, Victoria Timova, who was, who's our, uh, plus 198 play, remember we still have Thiago Monteiro to come, uh, at the French Open. Timova was up, was...
13:37
She broke while we were mentioning that, uh, you know, again, that it's at vsin.com/picks, then she got broken back. Now she's up a break, serving for the first set up 5-3 on Ekaterina Alexandrova.
13:49
What could go wrong, Kelly? Uh, in a early, by the way, 24 hours into the French Open, our most defining thing is that we were up two to nothing in a play yesterday, two sets to none in a men's match, and we gagged it.
14:00
Ugh. That was, uh, Terrence Atmane, French player. Can't ever trust him. By the way- I'm saying it for you... during the match, Terrence Atmane got upset that he lost a point.
14:13
He hit a fan with a ball that he thr- that he hit, which usually is an automatic disqualification, but it was like home cooking 'cause he's French, and they're like, "Uh-" Are you serious? "... you can keep playing."
14:23
Yeah. [laughs] That's- I thought we were done. He's like, "Yeah, you can keep playing. You can lose this in five." That's ridiculous. It is ridiculous.
14:28
Uh, Jake Hahn joins us ostensibly to talk about hockey, but he knows tennis too, and I think he's got some French Open plays.
14:33
He comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line, which is exactly how Mark Borchardt came to us. Jake, how you doing, man?
14:39
Uh, doing great, guys, and I, I was ha- I was chatting with you before I, I came on, and we were kind of going over some plays that we could have left that have started, and we're both on Timova. Yes.
14:47
We did not know that. So I'm hoping she serves up this first set, and we can, uh, we can get some good vibes here to start the day. @J Hahn4, that's the number four.
14:54
Jake is the co-host of the, uh, Point and Fantasy Hockey Show on SiriusXM NHL. Any other thing that you have pending today in tennis? Or is that it?
15:00
I, I'm look- y- I'm looking at D- I, I think Dom Koepfer could take a set off of, uh, Medvedev later.
15:06
As we know, Medvedev doesn't love clay, although he's gotten a, a lot better in that, uh, department and does seem at least a little bit more comfortable on the surface.
15:13
But he also tends to start slow in these slams, where, you know, first couple rounds, maybe he'll give you a set or, or, or even two. Um, and I think the overrun games there would be the play for me.
15:23
So that one doesn't start until, uh- Okay... very late in the day. So I, I've got my eye on that one. And in terms of, of an outright, Gil, I know you're heavy on, uh, on Iga.
15:31
I see it on your, on your French Open, uh, bets there, and hey, you can't argue against that play. Iga on clay at this tournament, she deserves to be a decided favorite.
15:40
But I, I do think Rybakina has a legitimate shot, um, just if they ever do get into a head-to-head situation, which wouldn't be until, uh, the final.
15:48
Uh, Rybakina around eight to one, I think, is, is where I got my eye, at least for some value on the women's side. And can't argue with her as she's always live and everything. Um, okay.
15:59
By the way, a set point for Timova. We are burying the headline, of course. The biggest thing that is going on at the French Open right now is that Rafa Nadal, winner of 14- Yeah...
16:08
uh, tournaments here at Roland-Garros, is taking on Sascha Zverev.
16:11
And when I first turned on the TV next to us, 'cause I'm looking through Kelly, uh, Zverev had already won the first set, and he was about to break Nadal in the second set, and I was like, "Oh no, this is not gonna go very well."
16:21
Nadal, by the way, not committing to this being his last French Open. He's leaving it open. Um, but then we did a sh- you know, the show went on for a couple minutes, and I turn. Nadal breaks Zverev.
16:32
So Rafa Nadal up a break in set number two, and it is pandemonium at Philippe-Chatrier. I don't even know if they're playing at Philippe-Chatrier. [laughs] I just wanted to say it. Poor Zverev. Yeah.
16:41
Anybody with w- uh, that doesn't have a ticket on them, there's no way they're rooting but any- for anyone- Oh, man... but Nadal. Come on, Rafa. Uh, okay, let's get to hockey.
16:49
Um, we were just talking earlier, Kelly and I was, specifically, specifically I was, about how these NBA playoffs, man, what, what you think you know either gets torpedoed by injury or then you just don't know some other stuff just flat out.
17:02
Um, when I polled folks about, and this is just before the c- the conference finals, who they thought would be in the Stanley Cup Final, most people said- Yeah... "Oh, it's Florida and Dallas."
17:14
If I remember correctly- Yeah... you did not. Didn't you say the Rangers? Well, my, my, uh, my pre-playoff pick was the Rangers and the Edmonton Oilers, uh, in the Cup Final, guys. Wow.
17:25
So a- as you know, when you get this far with it, you get into a co- like, and obviously you see a lot of things through the first couple of rounds, right, that might change your view.
17:31
Even though your team's got through, I might look at it and go, "Well, yeah, Florida's playing so great now, and Dallas looks really deep, so should I change my mind?"
17:39
But I was just sort of sticking with that, that, that pre-season prognostication or pre-playoffs prognostication. Uh, and look, the Rangers have had to work for their wins, guys.
17:47
It has not been easy for them by any means, uh, to be up 2-1 in that series against the Florida Panthers. And sometimes you just win your overtime games, and that can be the difference in a really close, tight series.
17:57
Florida knows that from the other side last year, right? We saw their run to the Stanley Cup Final, and it seemed like they won every single close game.
18:04
Every single overtime game, one-goal game went the way of the Florida Panthers.
18:08
So at least early in this series against the Rangers, they're getting a taste of their own medicine where game one they completely dominated and deserved the win, and then two close games, game two and three, that could have gone either way.
18:18
We could be talking 3-nothing Panthers right now, but the Rangers find a way to win a couple of close one-goal overtime games and, and that can sometimes be the difference in these series.
18:27
Okay, so you, because of your pre-playoffs prognostication, as you put it, you would not be the guy to say Florida plus 127 right now, down two to one.
18:39
Would you ra- if you didn't have that, that thought, if you had never- Yeah... made that prediction and you were coming in here blind, would you say to people, "Hey, Florida plus 127, pretty good"?
18:48
Well, I, yeah, I think if you're looking to bet Florida in the next game, right, in game four where they will be on home ice, they'll be priced around, I believe, minus 150, minus 160, just like they were in yesterday's game.
18:58
If that's your thought, if you feel like Florida's going to win that game, then I, I think you take the series price instead, uh, thinking, "Okay, they're gonna tie this thing up 2-2."
19:07
Yes, the Rangers will still have home ice advantage either way, but I think it's a, a nice way to get some plus money instead of having to lay the chalk, uh, in that game.
19:15
Or you, you stay away, you wait to see what happens, and if they get down 3-1, then you're obviously gonna get a, a much better price, uh, if you still feel like the, the Panthers can come back. It won't be for me, guys.
19:24
I'm just gonna continue to stick with the Rangers, and, um, I'm gonna wait till tomorrow to, to, to see if I actually make a play on them.
19:30
But it's a, it's a pretty tempting price, uh, with the Rangers, uh, at, at around plus 140, whatever the number is for, for tomorrow's game.
19:37
I, I think that's a, a pretty nice price for a Rangers team that should be able to keep these games close. Wow, Rangers trying to win their first Cup since 1994 and the Mark Messier team.
19:46
Rangers are plus 146, I'm seeing, tomorrow night, game four back in Florida. Rangers up 2-1 in the best of seven Eastern Conference Finals.
19:55
All right, tonight, and I was just, you know, we were saying earlier, because the NBA might be in a situation where we're gonna have a long break here, so hockey's gonna be front and center.
20:03
Tonight is game three of the Stars and the Oilers. The Oilers were able to take game one in overtime against the Stars. Stars were able to knot it back up in game two. We're in Edmonton now.
20:14
Uh, our buddy Andy McNeil used to come on the show all the time. He lives in Edmonton, and I was asking him, I was like, "Okay, what bets do you have?"
20:20
He says, "Well, I have the Stars to win it all, but just for the people of Edmonton, I wouldn't mind losing the bet and seeing this happen." Uh, how do you feel about this?
20:30
Edmonton is minus 125 in game three, they're a slight favorite, and it won- when it comes to the series price, it's a complete coin flip at this point. Yeah. Well, y- look, this is a tough one to predict, guys.
20:42
I, I will say, probably the toughest series I've had, and I, like I said, I sort of stuck with my, my pre-playoffs.
20:47
I think that w- that broke the tie for me, being like, well, I picked Edmonton to go to the Cup Final, so if I'm having a tough time deciding this series, let's just roll with the Oilers and see what happens.
20:56
But, uh, so far this series has gone exactly like every Dallas Stars series so far throughout the course of the playoffs. They lose game one to Vegas, they come back, they look dominant, they win that series.
21:05
They lose game one to Colorado, they come back, they look dominant late in that series, and they win it. And same thing here, they lose game one against Edmonton.
21:13
Well, they just bounce back and they play a dominant game two, so we'll see if they can carry that in to the road in Edmonton tonight. But I am still gonna continue to stick with the Oilers and trust in this team.
21:21
I am worried about the health level of their star player, Connor McDavid. It does seem like he's playing at less than 100%, but an 80% Connor McDavid is still better than probably almost every player, uh, on the ice.
21:33
Uh, and they do still have Leon Draisaitl there, who's done a great job, uh, carrying this team as well. And I've also, uh, really liked the under in these games, uh, as well.
21:40
I don't think Edmonton gets enough credit for how great they are defensively and the improvements they've made there, and we know Dallas isn't afraid to lock it down.
21:47
I think especially on the road, that's the type of game that they're gonna wanna play tonight. So I, I like the under once again. I'll, I'll run that back from Saturday. All right, real quick 30 seconds.
21:55
Conn Smythe, Igor Shesterki- uh, Shesterkin, plus 370. Jake Oettinger, six to one. Connor McDavid plus 650, Draisaitl plus 650 as well. Everybody else, double digits. You have a thought? I like Leon. I like Draisaitl.
22:08
Like I said, I do think McDavid is a little bit compromised here.
22:11
So if the Oilers are going to win the Stanley Cup, which is kind of crazy to say, a Canadian team, uh, possibly winning the Stanley Cup, I think Draisaitl's the guy that's gonna be, uh, hoisting that beautiful Conn Smythe trophy, one of my, one of my favorite trophies in pro sports.
22:23
Yeah, I think Draisaitl is a, uh, worth a shot there, plus 650, 'cause you're right, Connor McDavid looks diminished.
22:28
Uh, Todd Wright, our buddy Todd Wright is gonna have a, he's gonna have a tough time if a Canadian team wins the Cup. His head might explode. He just doesn't think it's gonna happen. Thank you, Jake, appreciate it.
22:38
Thanks, boys. Have a great week. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. And Tomova serving for the match, gets broken. For a limited time only, we're slashing the price of our annual subscription.
22:51
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23:34
Four more days. That's vsin.com/subscribe. Skill Alexander, "We get tweets, uh, on this Memorial Day. Always appreciate the, uh, the feedback.
23:44
Also got a lot of tweets from, uh, Bran and Brandi and Brandi with an I, and that kind of thing, Kelly. Big fans of ours. Come on, dude. You know how we roll. Big fans of ours. Uh, Bruce Dobigen.
23:53
We got a Grace on here, yep. [laughs] "Nothing to say, but as a Canadian, today is not a holiday, so I'm watching." You sounded lonely.
24:00
"However, remember, hosting radio on," uh, I remember hosting radio on Christmas Eve, "only cappies called. Courage," [laughs] with the Dan Rather exit, courage on his tweet. I love it.
24:10
Uh, Spence, "Listening from a Madagascar bazaar and the onions are 37 cents a pound." Thank you very much for that as well. [laughs] I appreciate it.
24:18
Uh, Jamie Samuel, "So I was walking through New York preparing to watch the French Open, listening to your show, and I walked right by this. I know it's a favorite for you in Vegas. Cheers."
24:26
He walked by Carbone there in, uh- Oh, wow, okay... New York City. Nice little shot of the awning there. And, uh, Corbin, "Morning, guys. Absolutely PO'd that I lost my headphones today before work.
24:36
Can't listen to ANG this morning, but please someone bring up the hundreds of Wolves fans groaning as the four time defensive player of the year, Gobert, switches onto Doncic.
24:45
I think everyone knew what was going to happen." Yeah Mike Rouse: "Should we expect Gil to go full Wishnev at the Giants-Yankees game on Friday?" Oh, I will totally go full Wishnev if that counts.
24:56
[laughs] Uh, Teasers and Parlays: "Are we sure Gil will be giving back the tribe to Adam Burke after May? Rooting for that to get home." I got to give him back the tribe. John? Yeah, I don't know.
25:05
He said the same thing after April, too. I know. I lied. [laughs] Oh, and then a somber note here. This is from Jesse Wells- Yeah, I'm glad... but it needs to be said. Um, "RIP Grayson Murray.
25:14
Feel like this is the proper forum for that to be said." Yeah, Grayson Murray, who at the age of 30,
25:21
he pulled out of the second round of the golf tournament this weekend, a couple holes shy of concluding the second round, uh, feeling ill.
25:31
And we learned that he had passed away the next day, the parents confirming that it was a suicide. And, um, Grayson Murray, dead at the age of 30.
25:40
And so it, it really did cast a pall on the, uh, the rest of that tournament, um, which was... I don't even know. Was there... Scotty Scheffler did not get there.
25:50
It was ultimately won by Davis Riley, uh, who won by five strokes. Scheffler was, uh, Scheffler and Keegan Bradley were five strokes back.
25:57
But it really, you know, to, to talk about the actual result of the golf tournament seems kind of- Yeah... unimportant. Yeah, it was tough.
26:05
Um, I mean, at first, first individual win for Davis Riley was a big, big win for him. But yeah, it, Grayson Murray stuff's just crazy. I, I, it's so tough. We, we talk, we try to talk about...
26:15
I, I like that the mental, mental illness is becoming more of a conversation. Uh, uh, it's something that needs to happen.
26:22
But, and this is a guy who was very, uh, public with his str- some of the struggles that he had from that standpoint, alcohol, uh, battle with alcohol and stuff like that.
26:31
It's just so tough when you, you know people that are suffering through some of that stuff aren't willing to come out and talk about it.
26:37
So to have the courage to come out and talk about it, and then, and then see something like this happen, it's just, it's just horrible. It's tragic. A- and, and, and props to all the golfers out there, man. Yes.
26:47
Like you could tell, for everything we've talked about in golf for all the past couple years of, of this divide with Liv and, and you don't know how these guys feel about each other, to see that, how, how that had rattled so many of those guys.
26:59
And really, you could... Like, the PGA Tour is still a family, and those guys are traveling and seeing each other week in and week out.
27:05
I, I mean, it was- Who was the, who was the golfer- Peter Malnati was the guy who was breaking down. Peter Malnati. Yeah, Amanda Balionis was doing an interview with him, and he just broke down. And he's right. Yeah.
27:12
I mean, he's kind of the same type of player, like this is such a grind, and we never, you never think about what these guys are dealing with in their own lives, 'cause we just think about the competitiveness of the tour- Yeah...
27:21
and what they're trying to go through and everything there. We don't factor in everything else that's going on in their lives. 30 years, 30 years old, it goes without saying, is just, uh, tragic. Um,
27:32
Mike Somich, no way to artfully segue to this, but, uh, Mike Somich joins us to, uh, talk about some bets.
27:38
Mike, of course, the co-host of The Handle here weekends at the network with Matt Brown, @somobomb18 on the Twitter machine. How you doing, Michael? How's it going, man?
27:49
I'm doing good, doing good on this Memorial Day, Gil. Looking forward to doing this, and then headed to the beach for the day, so I can't complain. Oh, where? W- in, uh, Santa Barbara, are you? Yes, the beach?
27:57
Uh, we're actually, we're gonna go, uh, up in Goleta with one of my daughter's friends. Oh, man, good life. Good life. [laughs] Weather in Cali is cooperating, I'm, I'm sure.
28:07
Uh, it's, uh, sunny and 70, just like every other day. Man, oh, man. Uh, okay.
28:11
Uh, Kelly and I s- uh, we, we finished the last segment by talking about these, how difficult it is when it's 3-0 in a series, in both of these series. 3-0 just generally in any of these best-of-seven series, to really
28:25
sink your teeth into a, a game four line. Celtics are favored by seven tonight in game four, trying to close out the Pacers in Indiana. Total is 222.5.
28:36
And the Mavericks are two-point favorites against the T-Wolves in game four tomorrow night, uh, back in Dallas. Do you have a play on either? Not right now.
28:44
I mean, it, it's tough to play these game fours when you have these 3-0 leads, because motivation becomes a factor for both sides.
28:50
It's funny to say that, 'cause you'd assume both sides, you know, one wants to sweep, the other wants to make sure they get a game, would be motivated.
28:56
But we've seen in the past in game fours, it's generally one side or the other that comes out and is motivated to be able to win the game.
29:03
Uh, the Celtics, we have seen them sleepwalk through multiple games in the Eastern Conference Finals. I don't really wanna jump in and back them laying the 7.5. If anything, I'm looking at some player props here.
29:13
I think Derrick White has the possibility to have a big game, especially if we don't see as, as many minutes from, uh, the stars Brown and Tatum there on the Celtics side. He's sitting at 15.5.
29:22
So if I play anything here, I'm taking 15.5 or possibly the under here, sitting at 222.5. Uh, in, in the second game, look, I, I like Dallas. I bet Dallas before in the, the series started in the series.
29:33
I've got a future ticket on them. But I, I'm gonna wait, and I'm gonna see what the score is after three quarters.
29:38
If I get a situation where I can get Dallas in at a cheap money line heading into the fourth quarter, let's say it's tied, let's say Dallas is up one, down one, somewhere in that range, and I'm sitting there and I'm looking at -110 to -130, I just trust this Dallas team so much more in the clutch, and if we're tied at that point, I assume we're getting, uh, equal motivation from both sides, and Dallas, they're gonna pull it out in the end, just like they have been the last three games here.
29:59
Uh, it's the difference in the series. Dallas is a, a, a clutch team, and you've got Minnesota who struggle scoring in the clutch at times, and that's really reared its head all three games.
30:07
No, it's a, it's, you, we alluded to it earlier. It is the single biggest thing.
30:10
It's, it's, there is nothing that we have seen that would in any way dent your perception that in crunch time, Luka and Kyrie are gonna figure it out, right? Like, it's just, this is what we've seen.
30:22
It's so, they, they make the right decisions every time down court. Um, they p- they defer, they pl- when they're supposed to. They play the defense they're given. So I couldn't agree more.
30:34
What about the, uh, the, the hypothetical, uh, series price between the Celtics and the Mavericks? The Celtics were -280 last week. They're still -230. The Mavericks are +190 on the comeback. Does that interest you?
30:48
I [laughs]
30:49
it's interesting to watch how this has moved, 'cause it, it actually opened pl- -300 +270, uh, as, as Boston, the -300 favorite over Dallas when both these series started, and we've just seen it kind of plummet consistently.
31:00
It's funny that it's 3-0 on both series, and yet we're not staying anywhere near that number. People respecting Dallas more. I think people are watching this Boston team...
31:08
kind of sleepwalk through Indiana and saying, "Well, are we really sure they're gonna be able to turn it up in the finals?"
31:13
Uh, yeah, if you don't have a, a Mavericks ticket by this point, I would recommend getting one be- sooner rather than later. I don't think this stops moving.
31:19
I, I think that if w- we end up getting this match up, let's say both of them sweep, I think we might end up seeing Celtics minus 200 by the time this tips off.
31:27
So if you like the Mavericks, the time to bet them was at the start of the series, but if you haven't gotten them in and you are planning on betting them, I would bet them sooner rather than later, 'cause I think there's a consistent amount of Dallas money coming in just because of, of the, the narrative that's formed around the Celtics at this point.
31:40
The three of us before- I agree. Yep... uh, on the break were talking about how
31:44
last year the Mavericks, we, we forget about these things 'cause we're so wrapped up and we're a hamster on a wheel with all these sports, but the Mavericks op- openly tanked with Luka and Kyrie down the stretch last year.
31:56
Because if they fell out of the lottery, they lost their pick. So they got in the lottery, they got the 10th pick, and they end up picking Lively. Um- Just massive...
32:04
generally, generally speaking, Mike, are you a pro-tanker? Yeah, of course. Yeah. Look, if, if, if you're in a situation where it can better your franchise, what are we doing? Isn't that the whole point- I agree...
32:15
is to better your franchise? So go ahead and tank if you think it's gonna do it. Like, I, I don't understand why people get so upset about teams tanking when, you know, if, if, like, I'm a St. Louis Blues fan.
32:24
When I know we're not gonna make the playoffs, I hope we stink. I hope we are the worst team in the NHL, 'cause then we get the first pick. I, I...
32:30
It baffles my mind that teams don't wanna ta- or fans don't wanna tank once their team is not going to be able to make a run.
32:35
Yeah, it's funny looking back at that Mavericks situation now because I, I was, I was someone in the moment, and I don't think my opinion really changes on this 'cause it's the whole Luka-Kyrie thing this, this playoffs, right?
32:44
If you have those two guys, you're always gonna have a chance. So that same, that still holds true from last year, but man, where is this team, where would this team be without Derek Lively now?
32:55
Where would they be without him in the future? This guy could be a, a big-time player for them for years to come. And I just have to say, when VSAN first started and I talked about Tank-a-thon 2018- Yep...
33:04
and the, and the race for D'Andre Ayton, how much incoming I took. People go, "They're not tanking." I was like, "It's not the players, it's management. They're doing..."
33:10
And people, now people are super warm to it, right? But back then, what's that? F- six years ago? People were like, "What are you talking about?"
33:18
Now it's, it's a, not only is it a thing, it ought to be a thing for everyone in- Right. Yeah... in certain situations. Mm-hmm. Uh, we'll come back.
33:24
Mike has hockey thoughts for tonight, perhaps beyond, as hockey may take center stage here for the greater part of a week. That's next. Numbers Game, VSAN, the sports betting network.
33:40
A Numbers Game on VSAN, the sports betting network. We're so close to crowning an NBA champ again after the delay to the, uh, NBA Finals.
33:48
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34:09
Gil Alexander, Kelly Billin, uh, I gots good news and I gots bad news. The good news is Viktoria Tomova comes through for us in straights. She wins the second set tiebreaker.
34:19
Uh, she was plus 198, so that in one fell swoop, uh, takes away some of the pain of yesterday, um, and this morning.
34:27
So we are back to sort of even level now here in the early going of the French Open, and we still have, uh... Did the Thiago Monteiro, uh, match begin? It did not yet, but it will, uh, in about 25 minutes.
34:37
That's the last bet that we have today in the French Open. Thiago Monteiro on the men's side, which you're only getting a few pennies worse than I got last night.
34:45
All hosts, all guests picks, every sport, vsin.com/picks for survivor. So I'm pumped about that, Kelly. Tomova plus 198. That's awesome. There we go. Over Alexander. Okay.
34:56
Uh, Mike Somich kind enough to join us for a second segment. You can follow him on Twitter at sombomb18, where you know what he does. He drops Somo bombs. [bomb exploding] There we go. Bruce on it this week.
35:08
You guys are great. They are on it. [laughs] Thanks to everybody, by the way, for showing up on Memorial Day, by the way. Chris, Matt, and Larry. Chris, Matt, and Larry.
35:16
Larry's been so on it today, I'm Ron Burgundy-ing through things that are on the screen. [laughs] Oh, that was my favorite segment in a while. Watch what you put on the screen, Larry. I might just blurt it out.
35:24
[laughs] I ask them to lead you along with graphics sometimes. [laughs] You just set up the next live read and Gil goes there and start reading it in the middle of a segment. Ron, I have no choice. I have to fire you.
35:34
[laughs] What are you talking about? [laughs] Um, all right. Uh, Mike, uh, hockey is, uh, in full swing. And these playoffs now, this...
35:40
'Cause I was like, we were going through, like, remember how the Western Conference playoffs in the NBA was supposed to be so great? And like- Yeah...
35:47
if you go through, like, the series, the bracket, then the series, um, the series outcomes, it's horrible. It's bad. Like, it's- I don't know about you guys, but I also f- I ke- I keep being...
35:59
I mean, maybe this is just the NBA fan in me, but I keep saying this, right, every time, Gil? "Yeah, but next round," [laughs] "like, it's gonna be good."
36:06
These are all the series outcomes in the Western Conference playoffs, which was supposed to be the greatest conference playoffs ever. 4-0, 4-0, 4-1, 4-2. That's the first round. 4-2, 4-3, 3-0.
36:18
So at least we got a 4-2, 4-3 in the, uh- What are best series so far? I was thinking about this yesterday. Uh, Denver, Minnesota- Denver, Minnesota by far... and then two Knicks series? Knicks-Sixers and Knicks-Pacers?
36:29
Yeah, but that was so hyped up beyond this. And we're, and we're talking about all these teams that are not gonna be here anymore. Yeah.
36:36
I still think Nuggets, Nuggets-T-Wolves is the headline of the whole playoff so far. And the, and all the, uh, and all the Somich-induced injuries in the Eastern Conference, where now I owe you dinner, Mike Somich.
36:45
Where do you wanna go? Well, I'm looking forward to going to the sushi spot with you, Gil. No. No.
36:50
And [laughs] to be honest, like, the other bummer about the NBA playoffs, we talk about that Timberwolves-Nuggets series, there were like six blowouts in that series. Yes. We didn't get any good games. True.
36:58
Like, it w- it's not even like in the 4-3 series, you have these moments where it's like, "Oh, we got a big game winner here, a big game winner there."
37:04
I mean, you look back and you think of Jamal Murray's two game winners. Those might've been the only two really late shots before Luka Dončić hit that three to go up 2-0.
37:11
Like, it, we haven't had exciting games in the exciting series.
37:14
Remember that moment when, when Jamal was hitting those and, and we had to have the conversation of Jamal Murray has this unbelievably interesting NBA career where he's never been to an All-Star game, but yet he is a champion who has made a myriad of game winners and just amazing perform- and has amazing performances in the playoffs.
37:32
It's unlike any other player, and now it's like, it feels like it was three months ago. It really says that, yeah. [laughs] All right, let's get to- It was pretty wild. Yeah. Let's get to hockey.
37:40
Let's start with tomorrow night first, before we get to tonight. Tomorrow night's Rangers-Panthers, it's game four back in Florida. Rangers are up 2-1.
37:47
Most people didn't, didn't necessarily think that was gonna be the case. Panthers are minus 168. They're big favorites in game four to knot up the series.
37:55
Rangers are plus 145 on the comeback, and when you go to the series price, the Panthers down 2-1 are a pretty juicy plus 130. How do you play this? Well, I, I played it yesterday when it was plus 145.
38:08
This opened at minus 165 Rangers, plus 145 Panthers. I would still play the Panthers at min- at plus 130. Uh, unlike the NBA games, the NHL games have all been- Oh... very close in these series. Yeah.
38:18
Just phenomenal hockey games. Yesterday, if you missed yesterday's Rangers-Panthers game, you missed a classic, and it was a, a situation where Shesterkin, the goalie for the Rangers, absolutely stole the game.
38:28
Headed into overtime, the attempted shots were 92 to 35 for Florida. They, so they almost tripled them up in attempted shots.
38:35
They controlled the entire pace of the play, but timely goals, bounces, that's what matters a lot of times in these playoffs, as well as big saves, and I- Florida's been the better team in all three games, yet they are down 2-1 in the series, and it's, it's ironic because Carolina was the better team in the first three games against the Rangers, and yet they were down 3-0.
38:52
Uh, I expect Florida's going to continue to add this pressure that they've had on the Rangers all series, and at some point you have to think you're going to be able to beat Shesterkin a couple times, as well as not just get these fortunate goals that you're getting from the Rangers right now.
39:05
I mean, uh, you saw a couple phenomenal plays by, uh, by the Rangers youngsters there to get breakaways and be able to cash those in against Bobrovsky.
39:12
They get two goals in 25 seconds in the first period after the Panthers go up 1-0. I just don't believe that these breaks are gonna continually happen for the Rangers here.
39:21
I think the Panthers are the t- the side to be on. You can get them, like I said, plus 130 in the series. I would still take the plus 130 number. I think a fair is closer to plus 115.
39:29
I expect them to win game four, and then we make this a three-game set. And they've dominated, like I said, every single game in this series. They have the better offense.
39:37
They clearly have New York's number from a forechecking perspective.
39:40
The pressure that they're able to create on the Rangers in their own zone has just been relentless, and the Rangers haven't been able to handle it very well and get the puck out of their zone.
39:48
And if you spend that much time in your own zone, if you're facing that many shots, that big of a discrepancy every single game, eventually the flood, floodgates will break.
39:56
So I, I have to think the Panthers are gonna be able to win this series and win game four. I feel like I have a couple hockey bets I'm about to make.
40:02
I feel like the Panthers plus 130 in this series, and I feel like that Draisaitl bet plus 165 to win Conn Smythe. I know you're a big, uh, Stars guy, but let me ask you about tonight's game.
40:12
Edmonton up, excuse me, pardon me, 1-1 in the Western Conference finals, game three tonight. Edmond took, took, uh, Edmonton took game one in double overtime against Dallas in game one. Stars even it up in game two.
40:24
We're in Edmonton now, where the Oilers are a minus 125 favorite, a slight favorite in game three. The series is a coin flip. How do you feel about this?
40:33
[smacks lips] Um, I, I bet Dallas pre-flop, betting plus, minus 125. I bet Dallas plus 165 after they lost game one.
40:40
Uh, if you go back and you look at the game one numbers, if you look at the, the simulations from multiple sites, Dallas had a, a 52 to 55 win percentage over 10,000 simulations in game one.
40:50
They won expected goals in game one, yet they lost the game. You watch game two, Edmonton outplayed them in the first period, but after that, the ice was tilted toward Dallas.
40:58
They, they played phenomenal in the second and third period, and Dallas is the best road team in the NHL this year. You f- if you wind back just one series, Colorado was the best home team in the NHL.
41:08
Dallas went 3-0 in Colorado in that series. I still believe Dallas is the better of these two teams, and they found their game in the second and the third period in game two.
41:16
If they're able to bring that same game to Edmonton, I think the Oilers are gonna be hard-pressed to win. I like Dallas today. I played them the plus, uh, plus 110 number in the game.
41:26
I'm looking for a in-regulation number as well, trying to get plus 160, plus 170 on Dallas in 60 minutes, and if you don't have a Dallas series bet, I still like it.
41:34
And even more so, right now you can get Oettinger for, uh, Conn Smythe winner. I've talked about this for, I don't know, two straight weeks on this network now. Yeah. He's still sitting right around five to one.
41:44
If they get through this series, it's gonna be built around Oettinger and that defense. You're not seeing Dallas be able to, to fill the net up with goals.
41:50
That all plays toward Oettinger if the Stars win the Cup, being the Conn Smythe winner.
41:54
Right now, you're getting somewhere in that plus 260 range on them to win the Cup, but you're getting double that on Oettinger to win Conn Smythe.
42:00
So if you like this Stars team, to me, Oettinger for Conn Smythe's a good bet. I know you're a horse racing guy first, Mike. Where does hockey rank on your favorite sports to handicap?
42:11
Well, hockey is, is, I would say the 1B to horse racing's 1A for me. Really? From a, just a, a fandom perspective, uh, from a... I, I really am a, a fan of one team. That's the St. Louis Blues.
42:21
I, I root for other teams, but man, I am, I am a diehard St. Louis Blues fan because of when I lived in St. Louis and the fact that I played hockey in high school. So I, I love watching the NHL playoffs.
42:31
I've been m- just locked in to both of these conference series. Can't wait for the Stanley Cup finals, and I like betting hockey because I don't think it gets as much action as some of these other sports.
42:40
Like, everyone's talking about the NBA, but if you watch these hockey games, there's bigger edges in the hockey games than there are in NBA right now. So I, I love betting hockey, Gil.
42:48
What's interesting, have you ever done, and this is just a me to you question, uh, uh, when you-- Have you ever considered that horse racing and hockey, some might say, are, feel more random than some of the other sports do?
43:01
Maybe, maybe you don't agree with that. [smacks lips] Um, I would say, I, I would understand why people say that. Horse racing definitely feels the most random, right?
43:09
But you're also getting three to one, four to one on the horses that you are betting. Right. So essentially, that's like a three-team parlay, right? That you're playing inside of a two-minute race.
43:16
So the randomness you have to expect in that sport. Hockey definitely has some more randomness in it.
43:21
Uh, you're going to have games like the Panthers' last game, where they clearly should have won game three, and they lost.
43:26
And you're gonna have games where, like game one, I think, again, Dallas was the better team, and they lost.
43:30
That happens with hockey because you have such low scores and you get one bounce that can really change the game. Uh, I like the randomness, Gil. Yeah.
43:38
Because I think it allows you to play certain scenarios out, and you're, and you're going to get situations where it's hard to say, "Well, because of that randomness, one team should be minus 400."
43:47
You rarely see that in hockey, and so I, I think it gives you an edge when you are betting because you have more randomness in the sport. That is why I asked the question, 'cause I knew you would have a heady answer.
43:55
You embrace the randomness, and the market prices make it worth your while. Mike, I appreciate it. Thank you so much, and we'll talk Belmont Stakes next week. Sounds great. Happy Memorial Day, everybody. Have a good one.
44:07
Mike Somich, everybody, co-host of The Handle. Weekends with Matt Brown, here noon Eastern, Saturday and Sunday at VSiN. If you're on the radio side, Gojo and Golick are next.
44:16
Pictures, best bets at VSiN, the sports betting network. Enjoy. [upbeat music]
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