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May 28, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 28, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 28, 2024
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44:18
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Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning.
0:09
Tune into the numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, GamePlus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:18
It is Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine, so much more- What's up, bro?... than a producer. You sent me down a rabbit hole again this morning. I did? Look, look, look, I got here on time. Oh, the Las Vegas aliens thing?
0:29
Yeah, yeah. From last year? Yeah. Oh, the expert says it's real. You are, you are gonna turn me into a crazy person with this stuff. Oh, now it's my fault. Yeah, yeah, I'm gonna blame it on you.
0:37
Your- I'm gonna blame it on you... your insanity came from me? That's right. [laughs] Is that- That's right, yes... yeah. When they lock me up in an asylum one day.
0:44
[laughs] I'm just saying, if I saw a nine-foot alien in my backyard, I'd be screaming about it every day. That video's incredible, man. Yeah. There's something there. I don't know what it was, but there's something.
0:52
Later on the show, we... No, we don't dive into this later, but we're just obsessed with this story. Uh, okay, on the show, Drew Dinsick will join us. We'll talk NBA playoffs and French Open with him.
1:00
The French Open, by the way, let me just start there real quick. Rain, as I said yesterday on the show, there's going to be rain in some variety all week until Friday in Paris.
1:09
It's almost as if you shouldn't schedule tennis' second major for rainy season in Paris, but they do. Yeah. I mean, everybody knows it's rainy season, that's for sure. [laughs] We- We sort of just learned that yesterday.
1:20
No, not at all. [laughs] We didn't, we didn't get informed of that yesterday at all. So my three plays, uh, are, I believe they're about to start.
1:27
I don't know, maybe they won't start till later, but if they are about to start and you are not on vsin.com/picks, first of all, shame on you. You should be a subscriber.
1:35
Uh, every host, every guest, every sport, all our picks are there. I have three, they have yet to start. Uh, Kelly, I'll start with the sexiest of them all. Do you want the sexiest of them all? Yeah, sexy.
1:45
I have a plus 416 dog. Does that, does that interest you at all? Yeah, it does. It does interest me. Uh, Kristina Mladenovic, who has really good clay court numbers, going up against Petra Martic.
1:57
Martic obviously the better player career-wise, but is not really, uh, has, has been more idle than anything else on this surface, hasn't really gotten her reps in. Uh, and, uh, her numbers quite frankly aren't as good.
2:10
And people, uh, part of the market price here has to do with Martic's seven to two head-to-head dominance over Mlade- Mladenovic. I'm not buying it. Uh, I took the plus 416. You can get it right around $4 right now.
2:22
I'd play it. That is about to start, at least it seems so on the schedule.
2:26
Uh, Nuno Borges on the, uh, men's side, uh, I have him as a slight dog, and he is still that slight dog, only a few pennies off from the price I got him at. Looks like that one has just started. Nuno Borges just started?
2:39
Plus 135 live though, if you wanna get it. Lit- literally they haven't completed a game. Yeah, that just started. Okay. So that started, that's why it's not on the board.
2:47
Uh, okay, that's underway, and then a little later on we do have a favorite, uh, Anna Karolina Schmiedlova. You know her, Kelly, don't you? Anna Karolina Schmiedlova? Sure, yeah. Uh, she is playing later on.
3:00
She is, uh, minus 132, so right around the price I got her at, 'cause I think I got her minus 131, so only a penny off, against Sara Errani. So it is Mladenovic, Borges just started, and Schmiedlova.
3:14
Mladenovic and Schmiedlova on the ladies' side at the French Open. All right, NBA last night. By the way, in addition to Drew Dinsick, uh, later on on the show we will have Matt Grissom.
3:23
College baseball super regionals were determined yesterday. He's got all kinds of picks.
3:28
This is actually the part he likes the best, not just picking a winner of the College World Series, but he loves picking regional winners.
3:34
So we'll talk to Matt Grissom later, and then Paul Sporer on Major League Baseball. Uh, NBA last night, the Celtics are on their way to the NBA finals after sweeping the Indiana Pacers,
3:44
four games in which it is very okay for you to say, "Pacers probably should have won three of them." [laughs] It's just true.
3:51
And that's why when I walked in here into this, into the, uh, into the casino, the lovely D here in downtown Las Vegas, you know, they got screens up everywhere 'cause of the content.
4:00
Uh, Mike Palm has made content, uh, management a big part of the deal here. So ESPN is on everywhere, and, uh, Greeny, Mike Greenberg, has his five most dominant championship runs ever. Is that what he called it?
4:12
I believe. Uh- No. Greeny's top five most dominant runs, yes, to the NBA finals. To the NBA finals. Yeah. All right, now we brought this up last week, and I, I brought up those 2017 Warriors.
4:23
Remember, where South Point put up a prop, will they go 16 and 0? They went 14 and 0 before they lost one, and then they went 15 and 1. Uh, the '96 Bulls of Jordan, 2001 Lakers of Shaq and Kobe, those were his top three.
4:36
His fifth was the '83 Sixers, the Fo-Fo-Fo Sixers of Moses Malone. He has the Celtics of this year at four. Stop it. Yes, I get it, they only lost two games, but they've hit the royal flush of injuries.
4:48
Can we not do this? They're just filling air time, is that what they're doing over there? Yeah, yeah, yeah. By putting that in there? I don't, yeah, I don't know how you do that.
4:54
I, I actually don't even know how you put that. Didn't the Sixers team, that Sixers team, don't you play one last round at that point too? I believe you do, yeah. I, I don't even know how you can kind of compare those.
5:02
I'm not saying it's all time, not an all-time great team, but, like, if you're taking away four more wins or something from this conversation. Yeah, I think you play one less. I think you did play one less round there.
5:11
I think I heard them just say that this morning on ESPN. Yeah. Yeah, you did, 'cause, like, '78 Bullets did as well. Um, that's right.
5:17
Yeah, uh- So yeah, we talked a little bit about it last week, and there's a lot of, there's a lot of these great runs, but it's- This is the, this...
5:23
Listen, I, I think the question we'll, we'll ask here is, it's not the Celtics' fault that they- Absolutely, yeah...
5:28
ended up playing teams that, uh, in order, Jimmy Butler, who wasn't with the Heat, Donovan Mitchell played sparsely for the Cavaliers. Um, obviously here Tyrese Haliburton didn't go in games three and four.
5:39
Let me just d- do the, uh, real quick, and I'm gonna do it the pace that it, uh, that, that p- presented itself on screen last night.
5:46
When the Pacers, by the way, the Pacers were up late in this game, for those who missed it. Uh, they were up 98 to 90 late in this game, but at 102 to 98 Pacers, here's how the rest of this went.
5:58
Tatum two, 102-100 Pacers. Nes- uh, Nesmith misses a three. Horford rebound, Jaylen Brown ties at 102-102. McConnell misses, Tatum rebounds. McConnell steals from Tatum. Brown steals from Siakam. White misses a three.
6:08
Tatum offensive rebound. Tatum misses a three. Nesmith rebound. Tatum steals from Nembhard. [laughs] It's just the Pacers were playing at a pace where it was like, "You guys think you're down five points?" Yeah.
6:19
"Like you were ahead and you're tied. Stop." Um, Tatum steals from Nemhardt. Brown misses layup. Siakam rebounds. Indiana timeout. One minute left 'cause Rick Carlisle's like, "What are we doing?" Yeah. "Stop.
6:29
Everybody stop. Take a breather." Tie game, one minute left. Then Nemhardt layup, his layup was blocked by Brown. Horford rebound. That's when Derrick White hit the three to make it 105-102. Nemhardt misses a three.
6:41
Tatum rebound, foul on Esmith. Ta- uh, Boston side out. Tatum s- arm bars the defender, misses a three. Holiday offensive rebound, keep away ballgame. Yeah.
6:52
Yeah, I think it was what, final 3:33 they didn't score a point, Pacers didn't score a point. It's Indiana's comedy of errors down the stretch is just missed shots, getting the ball stolen, getting the ball blocked.
7:04
Like one thing after another. By the way, can we talk about that arm bar for a second? Sh- I mean, sure. He's been, he does it all the time. He did get called for it, I think, once or twice last night. Once.
7:11
He got, on his fifth foul he got called for it, and then he complained. He immediately goes like this. [laughs] He's like, "Oh, you gotta review that." No, you arm barred him.
7:18
The arm bar- It's actually one of the easier calls, like to make in the NBA 'cause you get that extension. As soon as there's the extension. It's easy to ma- That last shot was an even more blatant arm bar. No call.
7:29
And this calls to mind something. I went, the other night we, we had, you know, we're on Monday through Friday, so we don't get to talk the night after games, uh, every time.
7:37
But when Luka hit the three over Gobert in game two, I j- I, uh, texted, uh, Felika and Will, and I said, "You know he traveled, right?" And they're like, "What are you talking about?"
7:47
I was like, "Just look at the replay." Yeah. He like takes three steps. Yeah. That- that's- And-... that's one of the funny, that's the, I heard the, it's the gather step argument.
7:55
The ga- but, but s- so in today's day and age of NBA play, no one ever calls that. Right. Correct. Because Will's correct response was, "Oh, Harden takes four steps- Yeah, yeah, yeah... and they don't call it." Yeah.
8:05
Right? But between that and the arm bar, keep in mind you have a Celtics team that swept and you have a Mavericks team that's up three to nothing. We'll talk about the Mavericks and the T-Wolves game four coming up.
8:16
But it, you know what it calls to mind is that there was a day and age, I'm old enough to remember when David Stern was the commissioner of this league, right?
8:24
There was a day and age when every NBA handicapper was saying all of this was fixed to extend series, and this ain't that anymore.
8:34
Because if this was that, Luka would've been called for a travel and Jayson Tatum would've been called for the arm bar. Oh, yeah. I, I mean, I think it's,
8:42
we- we've just, it's kind of happened to the NFL too, where we, right, where we have all the, we have all these reviewable plays now, which leads you to changing rules, which now rules are i- harder to enforce [laughs] sometimes, and now there's new rules.
8:55
I mean, like, uh, the, the take foul stuff the other night, like that, I mean, that was almost disastrous. Uh, what was that, game three, right? Where there's the take foul at the end.
9:04
I, I would've called it a take foul all season long. You can't in that moment, though. And so much of NBA officiating comes down to that, right? Where it's, "Oh, cool.
9:11
Okay, you could've called this all game, but you can't do it now. You can't do it with 30 seconds left." So we talked about this yesterday.
9:17
Yesterday, Memorial Day, so I'm not sure if you were, uh, on board with the show yesterday, but now after last night, 155 occurrences in the history of the NBA where a team led three to nothing.
9:30
0 and 155 in terms of the team down three to nothing coming back and winning the series. Of those 155 occurrences
9:38
where a team was down three to nothing, only four times out of those 155 has a team come back to force a game seven.
9:45
The Celtics against the Heat last year in the Eastern Conference Finals, and then they got crushed in game seven. So that is what the T-Wolves are up against.
9:52
And I get back to the Celtics, they are not to be blamed for who was presented in front of them. They are not to be blamed for the other team's injuries.
10:00
Right now, hypothetical pricing, they are minus 225 against the Mavericks. The Mavericks are plus 185 on the comeback.
10:07
And if the T-Wolves somehow were to buck that history, they are also an exact minus 225 against the T-Wolves, with the T-Wolves plus 185 on the comeback. That at DraftKings.
10:17
Is everybody on earth, let's assume it's the Mavericks because it's 0 and 155. Mm-hmm.
10:23
You know what they say about assuming, and I made a case for the T-Wolves yesterday 'cause games five and seven are at home for Minnesota.
10:29
So if they were able to steal tonight, it's at least an easier path than it would be if they didn't have games five and seven at home in it. I'm a little worried about tonight.
10:37
Derrick White will be doubtful for this game. Derrick White will be doubtful. It does look like Maxi Kleber's gonna be back for the game. Here's my only question: Is everybody gonna be on the Mavericks? Like everybody.
10:47
I'm talking about sharp b- the quote-unquote sharp bettors, the quote-unquote public bettors. I don't, I haven't heard one person, one person say, "I'm all about the Celtics at minus 225 against the Mavs."
11:00
I think that there are, I think it's a great question. I'm very interested to see. I, 'cause I have heard different things.
11:07
I have heard that, you know, like we talked yesterday wh- where we said yesterday this might be the best price we're gonna be able to get on the Mavericks. Mm-hmm. Like right now to win the NBA finals, right?
11:15
When we were looking at these look-ahead lines. And- Also, it would be for the T-Wolves hypothetically too, by the way, if they were to win four in a row. Oh, totally. Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
11:22
'Cause that number would only go down. Yeah. I, I was gonna, yeah, I was gonna bring that up. That's for sure, right?
11:26
Um, and I, I was talking to a couple people last night, and man, they, they thought this would close Celtics minus 250 against the Mavericks. They were gonna take, Mavericks to take money, sharp money. And [laughs]
11:36
I, I, I'm interested to talk to Drew next to see what he has to say, but- Yeah... I like Mavs. Drew will have his quote-unquote fair price- Yes, that's right... on the other, on the other side. Drew Dinsick joins us.
11:46
The Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. Numbers Game presented by ZYN nicotine pouches, America's number one nicotine pouch. Check everything out at zyn.com.
12:01
For a limited time only, we're slashing the price, by the way, of our annual subscription. Normally $240, you can now subscure, uh, I should say secure your subscription for just $199.
12:14
Saturday we'll throw in an extra two months for free. That's 14 months of Beast Pro access for less than 50 cents a day when you use promo code ANG. Let me do the math on that. Boop-boop-boop-boop-boop.
12:25
It's less than 15 bucks a month. Think about all the, uh, streaming services you're paying exponentially more for This'll actually make you money. Hurry, though. Special offer only available until Friday, May 31st.
12:36
With VSIN Pro, you'll get immediate access to our daily best bets, complete with leaderboards showcasing the hottest VSIN experts, betting splits that reveal where the money and bets are trending for every game, exclusive betting systems, premium analysis, and 24/7 video content.
12:47
Remember, though, the offer expires this Friday, May 31st, so visit vsin.com/subscribe now to grab your 14 months of VSIN Pro for just $199 with promo code ANG.
12:57
ANG, like a numbers game where we have the securest subscriptions around. [laughs] That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. That's Kelly Binning. I'm Gil Alexander.
13:06
This gentleman comes to us as the co-host of not one, but two podcasts, The Deep Dive, which he does with his co-host Andy Molitor, and of course, NBC Sports Bet The Edge with the Australian-accented Jay Croucher.
13:17
I believe it's an authentic accent. Whale_Capper on Twitter, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, it's Drew Dincic, everybody. How you doing, Drewski? I'm doing great. Uh, good to be with you guys this morning.
13:27
Hope you had a good holiday weekend, and, uh, yeah, fired up for the French Open to really get going here. There's been, uh, you know, it's been a little bit of a slow start.
13:35
Uh, some of the weather and, you know, just waiting for some of the, uh, more high-leverage matches here. But, uh, yeah, this is a great time of year to be a sports fan, no question. It is. It absolutely is.
13:44
And, and I, I threw in my, uh, plays right at the top of the show because we don't know when these are going to start, so I just wanted to get 'em in before they actually did, because we had the opportunity.
13:55
They were supposed to start earlier. You have any still pending today? Yeah, I definitely do. Uh, I'm against Goffin.
14:02
Uh, I can't even really pronounce this fellow's name, but, uh, he was, I believe, the, either the Lyon champion or the Lyon runner-up. Um, Impeccachicard? Uh, we'll go with the GMP, uh, French young, young French player.
14:15
Uh, I'm into him at minus 122 over Goffin. I think that's drifted a bit, but, uh, still, uh, much higher quality tennis out of, uh, GMP than we're seeing from Goffin right now. And then I have, uh, a dog in play.
14:30
I think it just started. Uh, I took Vacherot over A, uh, Alexander Davidovich Fokina. Oh, wow. Um, I have Vacherot both plus six and, uh, some plus 350 in that one.
14:42
So not a believer that Davidovich Fokina is just gonna stumble into form in this match. You too with a large dog this morning. Yeah, so let's repeat those. Uh, Giovanni Impetchicard. That sounds perfect.
14:54
GMP is the play, about minus 150-ish over Da- uh, David Goffin. That's perfect.
14:59
Uh, and then, uh, you are also on Vacherot, both on the game line and on the money line, going against, uh, Alejandro Davidovich, I believe it's pronounced, Fokina. Okay. Two on the men's side.
15:13
Uh, and nothing, I guess, the big headline so far, and we'll get to the NBA momentarily, but I guess the big headline is Maria Sakkari yesterday, who has spectacular clay numbers, but has now been bounced,
15:26
and she was yesterday by Varvara Gracheva. She was bounced in the first round at Roland-Garros. She's now lost in the first round in four of her last five Slams. There's no other way to say this, man.
15:39
It has to be mental, right? [laughs] I mean, I would guess, yes. Uh, and she's been candid about that.
15:45
She was actually, that was one of the kind of s- points, key plot points of her, uh, arc in the, uh, Netflix- Breaking point... Break Point show. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Um, but, uh- Break Point.
15:55
Yeah, y- you know, you watch that particular match, that should've been straight set Sakkari. Uh, [laughs] but set two, she had eight break chances, converted one. Gracheva had two break chances, converted two.
16:06
[laughs] So, uh, over the balance of the, uh, entire match, it was extremely lopsided in execution on the ex- you know, on the super, uh, high-leverage points.
16:18
4 of 15 converted for Sakkari, 5 of 6 converted for Gracheva. So that kind of tells the story of that match, and I thought, uh...
16:25
You know, I guess maybe even where, uh, that was probably like the, um, you know, the, the key takeaway, which is when I do go to the French Open, I'm definitely going out to, uh, uh, C- Cour- Corte Simone, uh, Mathieu, uh, for the, uh, sunset, uh, matches, where you get the, uh, you know, just perfect light and, uh, uh, that looked...
16:44
That was a, that was a, that was a pretty one. You know who, uh, said he might go, uh, Kelly? Matt Brown.
16:49
Matt Brown is going to, like, Ireland or something, and he said he's, he's, since he's in the neighborhood, he might just roll over to Paris and watch some, uh, French Open. Yeah, he's there now. Oh, is he really?
16:58
Yeah, yeah, yeah. He's- This dude... Scotland, I believe. Fancy pants. He's going to play golf in Scotland. Yeah, he's like, "Yeah, I'm in the neighborhood. I'll go over to, uh, Philippe-Chatrier."
17:05
[laughs] Right across the street. Just wanted to see it. Um, and then the Rafa Nadal thing yesterday, which- Yeah... may or may not have been his last match ever at the French Open. Obviously winner of 14 French Opens.
17:19
He says he does want to get back on that court for the Olympics. That is totally motivating him. Whether he plays at the French next year will be, uh, you know, a decision made at a future date. But that was,
17:30
y- you seized on, I think, the point that sort of got my hair standing up on my arms, was in the stands, right? Djokovic. [laughs] Alcaraz. Yeah. Svatek. Like that- Yeah... was unbelievable, man.
17:43
Yeah, I think, uh, that really told the st- Speaking of a hot ticket, uh, that was it. Um, you know, night, night, uh, court under the, uh, under the roof.
17:52
Uh, you know, if the roof had been open, would have, would Nadal have lost in straights? Probably not, but, uh, so, so it is.
17:58
Um, but yeah, that, that was, uh, incredible to see all of, you know, the current class of the greatest playing tennis all electing to make sure that, that rather than- Yes...
18:07
prep for a championship run, uh, we need to be here for this part of history. Uh, and, uh, it felt like that. And, you know, Nadal was pretty tight early on.
18:16
I don't think you necessarily saw his best until, um, you know, the start of the second set.
18:21
Uh, but I will be completely frank and tell you that he had more tools in his, in his arsenal than I, uh, expected coming into this one.
18:30
Uh, really just didn't think that there was much of a chance he was gonna be able to produce consistent winning tennis over the balance.
18:36
But, uh, what he showed, I thought, was, was pretty darn impressive, and his comments after the match I thought were pretty, uh, you know, they were moving also. You know, he's, he's been pretty candid.
18:45
He's not sure if he's retiring.
18:47
Um, he, and, uh, he thought he felt better in the last two months than, you know, the two months prior, and that in two months when they do play, uh, on Philip Chatrier in the Olympics, it would be, you would expect to see him either in singles or doubles.
19:00
There's been a lot of, uh, rumbling that he and Alcaraz have some sort of a deal to do doubles in the Spanish side of things, which would be, like, wildly cool to see. So- Awesome...
19:09
uh, a lot of hope that we're gonna still get a couple of very memorable moments to kind of remember the King of Clay by.
19:15
And I think, you know, everybody being there and expressing the same sort of sentiment both, you know, publicly and, you know, uh, you know, on the broadcast I think is, it's all fair.
19:24
Like, this is important because he's, you know, he, he is so clearly the best player we've ever seen play on clay.
19:31
And when it's over, it's gonna be, you know, just memories that you have of, of, of what he's able to produce, um, in that setting. And I think, uh, you know, the,
19:41
the best I could describe it is, like, yes, you can argue about who the greatest tennis player of all time is, and it's more of an all-surface argument, uh, than it is a dominance.
19:50
But I do not think you can argue that the best, the single best player in any given condition on any given day was certainly Rafael Nadal on clay.
19:58
Like, his peak was, like, that was much higher than any other, uh, you know, you know, Djokovic on center court at the Australian Open or Federer at his peak in, in Wimbledon, right?
20:08
Like, Nadal on clay, particularly on Philip Chatrier, was the highest rated player of all time. You even, you even- And, uh, that's, that's pretty cool.
20:15
You even went through it on the Beating the Book podcast by actually giving the pre-flop betting lines, that he got- Yeah. [laughs]... as high as $4. Like, books were just like, "We don't want you betting him." Yeah.
20:26
Um, and that was unprecedented. Uh, uh, what you just said is 100% true, obviously. I'll take it one step further if we'll just, we'll wrap up here with 90 seconds of, uh, sports talk radio.
20:37
Kelly, uh, John Goulet, and I were watching Nadal yesterday give his speech after the match.
20:44
And I said to them, and I don't know if they rolled their eyes at me or not, but what I said was, "In our lifetime," taking what you just said a step further, I said, "In our lifetime,
20:52
I'm not sure there has been anything as dominant in sports.
20:57
Pick your dynasty in basketball, pick your dynasty in football, pick your dynasty in whatever, but Rafa Nadal on clay, and particularly on that court, is the single most reliable thing in all of sports, at least our lifetime."
21:15
Yeah. I mean, you know, off the top of my head, uh, I can't think of any other example that you could even hold up, uh, where it's like, hey, um, your life depends on an athlete, uh- Yes...
21:25
you know, winning something [laughs] in some condition.
21:28
Uh, you pick Nadal on clay in, uh, you know, at any time between 2008 and 2019, [laughs] which is just an unbelievable, like, length that he was so dominant as well. And, um, yeah, it was, it was pretty special to see.
21:42
And I thought, again, kind of going back to our conversation from the Megapod, like, the fact that it was against Zinner, uh, that it, that it was against Zverev, uh, it wa- you know, the fact that it was against somebody who could ultimately go on and win this tournament, I thought was a lot more kind of satisfying than to see him kind of get beaten by a player who really just didn't have much of a chance of winning the title.
22:00
And it was cool to see Zverev's level as high as it was in that match as well.
22:04
Like, he was very aggressive and, and really played maybe his best tennis, uh, that I've seen him play at, at a Slam if we're, if we're being honest. And, uh, I think he could carry that to some success here.
22:14
But, uh, yeah, it was, it was amazingly cool to, to see it. And, um, yeah, very thankful to have been around for this, 'cause we're not gonna get it again in our lifetime. No.
22:22
You were totally right about the fact that that was a, that it was good that it was a strong opponent like that, as opposed to, I believe [laughs] the name you gave on the pod was, as opposed to losing to, I don't know, Max Purcell.
22:32
No, I think you're absolutely right. Yeah. I feel bad for Barry- Yeah. [laughs]... Max Purcell. And nothing against Max Purcell. Yeah. He is out. NBA on the other side with Drew next.
22:40
Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] For a limited time only, we're slashing the price of our annual subscription. Normally, it's $240. Normally. That's on a normal day. This isn't normal.
22:52
You can now secure your subscription for just $199. Sign up today, we'll throw in an extra two months for free. That's 14 months of VSiN Pro access for less than 50 cents a day when you use promo code ANG.
23:04
But you gotta hurry, it ends Friday. That's when the special offer expires. Expires. Expires. May 31st, this Friday.
23:12
[laughs] With VSiN Pro, you'll get immediate access to all the daily best bets, [laughs] uh, to our daily best bets I should say, complete with a leaderboard showcasing the hottest VSiN experts, betting splits that reveal where the money and bets are trending for every game, exclusive betting systems, premium analysis, 24/7 video content.
23:26
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23:41
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin. Uh, time to update the Guardians. It is May 28th. Bum, bum, bum. Yesterday, not a good day, because the Cleveland Guardians' nine-game winning streak,
23:54
12 out of their last 13, the, the nine-game winning streak got snapped. Uh, they lose at Coors. They had themselves a three to nothing lead and a four to one lead, but, uh, here's the thing about this monthly bet.
24:05
And by the way, shout out to Eric Biggio at, at William Hill Caesars, who, like, tweeted me the new June. Trolling you, yeah. He's totally trolling me. He's like, "I don't know, Gil, wanna look at June?"
24:13
[laughs] Hey, uh, he's helping me out as a producer. [laughs] That's right. He's like, "We need the content."
24:18
Um- Again, as your friend and a bettor, I w- I would tell nobody to force anything As a show producer though, this has been fun the past two months.
24:26
You, you enjoy seeing me come to the cusp of victory, only to get destroyed at the end. Uh, so the Guardians lose eight to six to the Rockies, and this is the trippy part about these monthly bets.
24:36
Uh, Stephen Vogt, the, uh, manager of the, uh, Tribe, he does not know that there's anything on the line, right? They're not- Right, yes, yes...
24:43
they're not playing for the pennant, they're not playing for the division, they're not playing for anything. It's, like, the end of a month, and only the bettors who have this bet knows this.
24:50
So he left in Xavion Curry probably a couple batters too long yesterday. I'm like, "Take him out, take him out." Didn't take him out. Uh, so they lost their lead, and they lose eight to six.
24:59
Now, here's the other thing that happened, though. The other two teams that are involved-- By the way, there's only four teams that are, that are involved in this now.
25:06
26 have been eliminated from having the most wins in the month of May. It's only the Phillies, Yankees, Guardians, and Royals.
25:13
Well, not only do the Guardians lose, but so did the Royals, despite a furious comeback in the ninth. They lose to the Twins.
25:19
And then the Phillies got doubled up by the magic that is the San Francisco Giants, eight to four.
25:25
So I said yesterday on the show, even though the Yankees were in second place in the standings, that they're the real betting favorite at this point to win May. They're the big favorite now, in my opinion.
25:35
The Phillies and the Yankees are both 18 and six, but now the Yankees have four games left while the Phillies just have three games left.
25:43
So the Ya- and the Yankees, by the way, they got three at Anaheim to play the Angels before they go to San Francisco to have to contend with the magic that is the Giants.
25:52
But you got three at Anaheim, and so not only do you have the extra game, but you got the easy opponent, and so the Yankees are the betting favorite right now, both the Phillies and Yankees at 18 and 6.
26:02
The Guardians are 17 and eight. The Royals are 16 and eight. They're the only other two teams that are in this.
26:07
So we're still alive with the Guardians, but here's what has to happen because we could be eliminated tonight or we could be on life support after tonight. Here's essentially what'd have to happen.
26:17
The Guardians would have to win their last three. Just one scenario, right? Win their last three, two against the Rockies, one against the, uh, Nationals. The Phillies would have to go one and two.
26:29
Okay, that's possible 'cause they do have to play the Giants. Uh, and the Royals would have to go three and one. Okay, that's possible. All, all possible at this point, except here's the problem.
26:41
The Yankees would have to go one and three, and that is where the rub is because the Yankees would have to go one and three, three against the Angels, one against the Giants. Uh, that's asking a lot. Yeah.
26:53
It's asking a lot. We'll see. We've gotten this far, though. Good luck to all of us.
26:57
I mean, the only, the only, I mean, the only upside, I guess, for people that did bet in a dead heat shop is there's way- Oh, damn, I'm glad you brought that up... way less teams involved.
27:03
[laughs] I'm glad you brought that up. That's, that's for those of us who bet, who bet at Circa, where there are tiebreakers of fewest losses and, uh, run differential.
27:12
But for those who are at the dead heat shop that is William Hill Caesars and you have a Guardians bet, you could still dead heat this. You don't need to have those things happen, right?
27:19
You just have to get to the same amount of wins as the Phillies and Yankees. That is p- more possible. It, wasn't, wasn't in April where at this point, wasn't there still, like, six teams or something like that?
27:30
Oh, it was much more of a scrum. Yeah, yeah. So, like, dead heat, you were gonna get crushed. April 30th, there was, like, six or seven teams still in. Yeah. Okay. That's where we stand. Good luck to all of us.
27:38
Paul Sporer joins us from Austin, Texas. He's at FanGraphs, host of the Sleeper and the Bust podcast. He joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line @Sporer. Oh, he switched his hat to a Guardians hat.
27:49
I saw what you did, Paulie. Thank you, sir. [laughs] I got your back. What's going on, Gil? [laughs] He was wearing a Marlins hat, and now all of a sudden it's the Tribe. Thank you so much. Um, okay. I, uh...
28:01
let's start with DFS. We usually close with DFS, but there is a game at Coors, that is the Guardians game. What would you play today at DFS? Yeah, I mean, obviously I'm always gonna be looking at the Coors.
28:11
Uh, now, I will say, at least anecdotally, I don't have all the data on it, I don't feel like Coors is yielding a ton of numbers, and yet- That's correct. That's correct, yeah... it's partly because they suck so bad.
28:24
Um, so they're, you know, the Rockies themselves aren't really delivering the numbers, but I feel like in a weird way, some of their pitchers have stepped up there, too, and limited the opponents.
28:31
That said, I'm still gonna look at some Guards, but there's a lot of good pitchers going out there today. Um, you know, you got Wheeler, Peralta, Reagan's, three bonafide aces. I'm, I'm inclined to lean one of them.
28:41
Luis Castillo, Max Fried, two more aces up there. They're even a bit cheaper if you're looking at the DraftKings board. I might go one of them to kinda save a little bit, especially Fried.
28:51
Fried's the cheapest of that group, so I'm definitely gonna look at him.
28:54
And then as far as teams to go, if you try to fade the Colorado game because the, the runs there haven't been massive, probably gonna go with a bunch of Phillies against the Giants, even though it's in San Francisco and they're hitting everywhere always, and, uh, Blue Jays against Mike Clevinger.
29:10
The Ronald Acuña injury, we're talking a little bit about this yester- on the show.
29:15
From a betting perspective, you know, I asked Marc Borchard, "Okay, does this mean the, you know, Phillies minus 150 to win the division?" He actually went the other way.
29:22
He's like, "The market has overreacted even with the movement that it has made," which wasn't, like, massive movement, but still was an overreaction in his estimation.
29:30
He actually thinks, uh, bet on Braves now that you're getting more favorable prices. Do you see it that way generally? I, I do like that. Uh, I think an overreaction doesn't surprise me at all.
29:42
That's exactly what I would expect to happen. We constantly, we as a betting community, fantasy community, baseball community, whatever you want, constantly overrate the impact of one player. Now, he is a god.
29:52
I'm not here, you know, negating any impact of Acuña. He's amazing. But didn't they win the World Series without him? That w- that was without him, yes? Am, am I, am I wrong that, that he was not part of that?
30:04
That's when they brought in Soler and everything. Um, I'm... I remember a huge run that the Reds made, this is a while ago, 'cause they were in contention, that they made without Joey Votto, right?
30:14
Like, one player in baseball, it's just not like it is in other sports. So I'm not surprised that, you know, the odds are gonna change a bunch. Everyone's gonna say, "Fade, fade, fade the Braves."
30:23
I, I'm actually kind of open to leaning into it because they're not gonna fold. They're not just gonna pack it in and say, "Well, we lost Acuna, we're out."
30:31
No, Alex Anthopoulos is gonna go pull a rabbit out of his hat somewhere and, I don't know, I'm trying to think of, uh, a- an outfielder he could even get.
30:39
I almost said Brian Reynolds, but the Pirates are still kind of, like, in fringe contention now. They have, like, two aces. Uh, and they signed him, so they're, they're inclined to keep him.
30:46
But that was the, that was the default guy to say a team was gonna trade for for a while until they locked him in. But they're not going to cower. The Braves are going to put their foot to the pedal.
30:56
Uh, you know, so I'm really gonna say I would go further in on the Braves right now as opposed to fading them. And the interesting thing is with some of these markets, they're 15 to one to miss the playoffs.
31:08
So the, it's still, they're still a massive favorite to make the playoffs. Do you think 15 to one represents some value, though? To miss the... I, h- how are they gonna miss the playoffs, Gil? Well, because here's why.
31:20
Because [laughs] Jeez, the way you asked that. Get 'em, Paul, get 'em. Jesus, the way you asked. [laughs] So mean. Um. I loved it. I think because, I'll, I'll put it this way, you still got three wild cards, right?
31:31
Mm-hmm. And can you find three wild cards? Well, the answer to that would be I can't in the East, but I could find one in the Central, right? Either the Brewers or Cubs, whoever doesn't make it there.
31:42
And could you, it comes down to could you find two in the West to have better records than the Braves? Two of the Padres, Diamondbacks, Giants trio. Oh, hate Giants. Stop that. You're pr- well, here's the thing.
31:55
You're probably... You're, you're absolutely still a dog, right? But 15 to one as a no? Like, that- Uh... I mean, that's, that price is kind of nice is what I'm saying. If it was five to one- You know-... I wouldn't ask.
32:10
Sure. It's, it's not a bad price. Like, y- y- you know, you're always thinking these angles, and I, I love that about you. I just don't see it. [laughs] So, like, there's some times where
32:21
I get the principle and, and that alone kind of gets me hyped, and I'll make, like, a half unit, quarter unit type bet 'cause I'm like, "Yes, the theory works here." Yeah.
32:30
But in practice, I, I just, I gotta be honest with you, Gil, and, and the listeners, I don't see it at all. Okay. So, like, I, I get- That's why I ask...
32:35
I get the case you're mapping out, but I wouldn't put any serious cheddar on it at all personally. All right. Would you, would you take them to win the division at a plus price? Phillies are minus 150. Yes.
32:45
The, I, I, again, I forget who you referenced earlier, pardon me to that gentleman, um, saying to g- go in on the Braves, but I wanna co-sign what he's saying 'cause I totally agree.
32:54
Everyone's gonna pivot away from them understandably 'cause they see, oh, big name is out. I'm going in. I trust Alex Anthopoulos. I trust the foundation that they have around him.
33:02
Again, they won the 2019 series without him. He only played half the season. Acuna, l- losing Acuna sucks. He's a god. The Braves, I don't think they're going anywhere. I think they're more or less gonna be fine.
33:14
Plus 120 to win the division. By the way, real quick on the way out, who wins the AL West when all is said and done? Um, Texas. Texas does? Okay. The defending world champions. Plus 380. Plus 380. Thank you, Paul.
33:26
Appreciate it. Take care. We'll come back. We'll wrap things up with the NBA tonight. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:38
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33:47
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33:57
The crown is yours. Kelly, Kiki Mladenovic did not get there. She loses 6'4", 6'4" as a $4 dog. Come on, Kiki. Cost me a whole $20 this morning. Oh, that's what you bet on her, 20? Yeah, I went 20 bucks.
34:11
[laughs] That's how much confidence you had in my bet, 20 bucks? Well, I got in late. I got in when she was down a game already. Oh, okay. I was gonna say. So I went, like, plus 520.
34:18
I was like, "I'm gonna go a little lighter on this." Uh, we get tweets. We get a bunch of tweets.
34:22
Uh, this is from Kevin Ryan, "I am 66 and had the pleasure of watching Bill Walton play and listening to him announce, uh, for the Pac-12. I ran across him at the Phoenix Airport, and he talked to me for 10 minutes."
34:37
These are always the s- these are all the stories I keep hearing. It's incredible. An icon has passed. Only thing, I didn't have an encounter with Bill Walton.
34:44
I w- I attended a, the Who concert here in Vegas 'cause I was on a concert binge where I was like, "I'm gonna, I'm gonna watch concerts of genres I'm not into."
34:53
And there was Bill Walton two rows in front of me on the aisle, standing. That's awesome.
34:58
You know, the person behind him, I think the person behind him was just so thrilled to be behind Bill Walton that they didn't complain about it.
35:04
Uh, this is from C Oaks, "The final round of the World Series is basically a combination of the region, super region formats. Eight teams split into two regions, double elimination.
35:13
Winners of each play in a two out of three series for the title." Duh. That's that simple. Oh, and Grissom jumped in. He goes, "What I should have done- [laughs]...
35:20
what I should have done to simplify the college baseball postseason could be summed up in one rule. Don't lose twice in one weekend, and you're good." That's the way to say it. There you go, yeah. There you go.
35:29
Just don't lose twice in one weekend. Yeah. Thank you, Matt Grissom. And then Logic3227, "How could you forget the biggest story of the day? Angel Hernandez retired. This day should be a national holiday."
35:39
Yeah, uh, Angel Hernandez, uh, quote-unquote, "retired." I think there was probably- Well, what does that mean? I think there was... Well, he retired. Like he was pushed out? But I think there was a deal. Okay.
35:49
That's my guess. Like, maybe baseball finally realized maybe we shouldn't have this perception of us. Right. Yeah, yeah. Like, you're kind of hurting the game. Maybe a time to ta- time to take that golden watch.
35:59
And well, well, well, lookie here. People still get gold watches when they retire? [laughs] Does that, that happen anywhere? [laughs] You let me know when it happens.
36:09
Uh, well, well, well, Kelly Bidlin, Kendrick Perkins says that he's embarrassed he used his Defensive Player of the Year vote on Rudy Gobert. [laughs] And he calls it the biggest regret of his media career. Quote
36:27
When does the suit end? No, I'm kidding. [laughs] Quote, "He has tarnished the Defensive Player of the Year award. He has. He's not respected by his peers. We saw what happened to him in the Denver series.
36:39
He couldn't even guard the person at his position." Unquote. Well, thanks for nothing, Kendrick Perkins, 'cause some of us bet on this stuff. But I do appreciate the public mea culpa. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Me too.
36:51
Even though it cost us money. Me too. But this is what I said yesterday on this show, right? I c- I don't think you're hearing that from the DeMonis-and-Bonus guy on anything.
36:58
That DeMonis-and-Bonus guy's not apologizing for anything. I agree. Th- th- this is where I think I, I feel like I'm always re- defending Rudy, 'cause I, I shouldn't be at all.
37:06
But, like, the thing with this series is he's, like, the fourth biggest problem on this team.
37:11
Like, Karl-Anthony Towns, oh my gosh, af- this r- after this resurgence of a year, has just disappeared in the biggest moment, when he was arguably the biggest star of the Denver Nuggets series, series.
37:24
You know what he's shooting from three in this series? 13%. Yeah. What was the, what was the one I heard the Establish The Run guys drop this morning?
37:32
He has a higher usage rate than his field goal percentage in this series, which is just [laughs] like something you don't hear. You never hear. One more thing. Steve Fezzik is angry.
37:44
He's very angry, and he's about to blow. [laughs] Blow. Steve Fezzik, uh, who, uh, can be heard on, uh, Sharp Money with, uh, Patrick Maher and Dustin Swedelson regularly, weekly- Yeah, every Monday... I believe.
37:54
Every Monday here on the network. Steve is the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton SuperContest. Stevie comes on this show, and uh, famously I, uh, challenge him on some of his, uh,
38:03
how can I put this, behavioral things. Mm. Uh, most recently I said to him, I go, "Stevie, does it mean more to you to make money or to call other people dumbos?" And he said, "Dumbos."
38:15
So this is, with that as a backdrop. [laughs] Let me just say this. Stevie texted in. He goes, "I strongly disagree with your baseball experts." He says, "The markets are going nuts on the Phillies with good reason.
38:28
I bet my blanks off minus 150 and minus 175 to win the division. Phillies will be minus 300 by mid-June. No Strider, no Acuña." So there's his point.
38:39
He's thinking it's gonna move further, so he's grabbing the best of it now. Th- that was my one question on that. He says, "Instead of winning 102 games, Atlanta's only gonna win 92, and Philly's gonna win over 100.
38:48
Your guys are on crack," he said. There it comes with the name-calling and the characterizations. He can't help himself. Um- Yeah...
38:56
he says, "Bookmakers asleep at the wheel, allowing me to bet these at less than minus 200." Allowing him, Stevie, to bet it at less than minus 200.
39:08
Um, he said, uh, to use your phrase, "These guys are too close to the sun." Um, and he disagrees with them strongly. Well, Stevie has an opinion on it, and by the way, I understand Stevie's point.
39:18
Yeah, I mean, it sounds like you lean that way a little bit too, right? Yeah. The, the reason I keep bringing it up is because 15 to 1 for them to miss the playoffs is a good price to me.
39:31
I was wondering about, you know, like I brought up the Phillies a couple times even before the Acuña injury, so that was the one I gravitated more towards, was the, was Phillies in the division.
39:40
Listen, I, I was saying during March, April, when we had the Guardians bet, I was like, the... You watch these games every night. The Braves appear to be the best team in baseball.
39:47
I, I'm convinced the Braves are the best team in baseball, but that assumes- You did say that... that assumes that they're at full strength and that everybody's playing well.
39:55
Now, Acuña, even before the injury, something was wrong with him, and that became more apparent. I w- I did keep saying, I was like, "Oh, Zun is the best player on this team right now."
40:03
Um, but baseball's a funny sport, and just because it's there on paper doesn't mean that it's all gonna work.
40:11
And they don't have Strider, and they don't have Acuña, and that's their best pitcher, and that's their best hitter overall.
40:15
Do think it's interesting between what, what Steve said and what Paul said, how many ga- how many games in baseball is a player like that worth? Well, St- so Steve says it's- How many wins?...
40:25
gotta be w- Steve says it's gotta be worth at least four wins, he says. Okay. Well, I mean, there are ways to quantify this, right? It's called WAR. Right. But problem with WAR is it's not a stat I like.
40:34
It's not uniform. FanGraphs has a WAR. Baseball Prospectus has a WAR. The two do, do not meet. Yeah. Yeah. So there's a bit of subjectivity to it. Um, but yes, they are, th- every player is worth certain amount of wins.
40:51
Um, sometimes it's negligible. Other times it's not so negligible.
40:55
Um, so that's Stevie's point, and so that's why he's betting it, 'cause he's taking the best of it, 'cause he thinks it will only go in that direction here in the short term. So there you go.
41:03
So that's, uh, one man's opinion versus another. That's why we talk about these things. All right, uh, finally, game four. Let's, uh, go back to where we started as we close out here.
41:11
Game four of the Western Conference finals. Mavericks leading the Timberwolves three to nothing in their best-of-seven Western Conference finals in a g- a series where T-Wolves should have themselves
41:23
a win or two or maybe even three along the way, but they don't. And so the Mavericks on the cusp. Again, 155 and 0 for teams up three to nothing to close things out.
41:33
Only four times has a team even forced a game seven when down three to nothing. That's what the Timberwolves are up against. Mavericks are either a one-and-a-half or two-point favorite here, Kelly.
41:41
The total's at two 10 and a half. You've got Mavericks futures. Yep. If you did not, how would you play this? I don't... Yeah, I don't... Side is very tough in this game. I, it, as we keep...
41:51
I mean, we've been saying this throughout this series. I think Minnesota's extremely live, just like they've been every single game.
41:57
I think kinda like we saw last night, I don't expect this, this team to completely give up. Um, sidewise, I w- it, no, there would be no bet for me. There is no bet for me.
42:07
There would be no bet for me, even if I didn't have Mavericks tickets going. Total, I, I've kinda leaned over all along too. I know that was Drew's thought at the beginning of the series too- Yeah...
42:15
with the, with the game one, uh, total. I, I kind of agree with him. I... Every game it's kinda been, looked more, more to an overlook, uh, than under. I did bet one player prop tonight.
42:24
I bet Naz Reid over his points, 12 and a half. Um, this is ano- this is another one. I heard, heard Establish ga- uh, the Run guys talking about. I completely agree.
42:32
You gotta figure out something with KAT in this game quick.
42:36
And I think that means you're probably gonna see a lot of, a lot of offensive play calls, action run for him in the first quarter, and either he's got it or you gotta put him on the bench.
42:45
And you got Naz Reid as one of the only guys who's effectively scoring for this team.
42:50
And yes, he hurts you on the defensive side of the ball, but man, you've got Karl-Anthony Towns out there who's hurting you on both sides right now.
42:56
So I, I think it's gonna be really interesting to see what they do with the bigs tonight too, uh, bigs tonight overall, Gil, because I...
43:02
Whether it's Gobert or KAT, I think there's times where you, uh, you could easily have made a case over the past couple games, man, you gotta get them off the court, get, uh, getting Naz Reid, uh, or even Kyle Anderson or any of these guys back on there who are just frankly playing better right now.
43:17
So, uh, I like Naz Reid over his points. I, I played over 12 and a half. I think I saw it as 15 plus at, like, plus 150.
43:23
I think if you're playing over on Naz, you gotta sprinkle the alts too, 'cause if you're thinking like I'm thinking, he's gonna m- be a much bigger part, uh, of the offense tonight. So played that one.
43:32
That, that's really the only thing I'm looking at though, uh, here tonight. I think it's gonna be really... That Karl-Anthony Towns story, man, it's, it's fascinating. 'Cause can you,
43:41
with this team moving forward, can you throw a guy, can you bench a guy in this type of moment, you know, in a playoff series- Some people-... of that star power? Some people, some people say you should sit Gobert too.
43:50
I, that- Like, there's all kinds of things... that's what I'm saying, but you could completely screw up the future trajectory of this franchise, right? That Kendrick Perkins mea culpa,
44:00
I know we're doing a show and I'm laughing about it, but it's kind of left a mark on me. I'm like, yep, I talked about this yesterday. We've talked about it for months now. Yeah. No one's in it.
44:10
Everyone's voting for Wembanyama last year, and all the reasons for not voting him are gonna be out the window. Ah. It's VSiN, the sports betting network.
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