Search
Login
Sign Up
May 28, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | May 28, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | May 28, 2025
00:00
33:50
1×
Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's radio's Gil Alexander, everybody. It's Kelly Vinland alongside. Heyo.
0:24
What's happening? Some aggressive food takes on the NASCAR changeover between shows. Wow. I, this, I- Ran- ranch on pizza just blew Gil's mind. What is wrong with you people? [laughs] I didn't say I do it regularly.
0:37
And by you people, I mean people who dip their pizza in ranch dressing. What the heck? Uh, it's not bad. I, I, I, I will say that. I've tried it, but I w- I'm kind of with you.
0:46
It's the, uh, it's not something I do regularly. Who- You have good pizza, you shouldn't regularly... who thought to do that the first time it happened?
0:52
I don't, all I remember is it blew my mind the first time I ever saw it probably, like, 20 years ago. I was like, "What are you doing?" Yeah. "What are you doing? You're dipping pizza in ranch?"
0:59
And then I tried it and I was like, "Okay, that's pretty good. I get it." Well, yeah, in the way that, like, just dumping all kinds of things on everything is good, but, like, what's the point? Yeah. Okay.
1:06
I'm glad we got that settled. Uh, on the show today, Steve Fezzik. Normally we have Fezzik Fridays. Now, I'm gonna, I'm gonna walk you through this, Kelly.
1:13
Today is not a Friday, and we have Fezzik on, so it's not technically a Fezzik Friday, but he'll be here for three segments next hour. So I have to, we have to be here tomorrow? Uh, what?
1:23
We have to be here tomorrow 'cause it's not Friday. You, correct. Okay. Correct. Got it. Yes. Okay. Um- Let me make note...
1:29
Fezzik, among things he wants to talk about is this Crack segment that we had last week, where Crack said you can't beat the NBA. Uh, Carl Sack got mad about it. You got mad at me about it.
1:40
[laughs] I took bullets for it, um, happily, but Steve has something to say about it, and then Crack tomorrow will have some more to say about it. Okay. Looking forward to it.
1:48
'Cause other shows apparently have seized on it and gone after Crack about it. Mm. Oka- okay. Sure. It's amazing. You, Tw- t- gambling Twitter's a great place. Yeah, I heard, uh, I heard one podcast bring it up. Yeah.
2:01
There wasn't much detail in it. We didn't get mentioned at all. [laughs] Yeah, we will, I wouldn't expect us to get mentioned. What, what do we have to do with it?
2:07
But I'm just saying it's, it's, it's amazing how, well, Steve has something to say about this. Let's just get it. I, I think he makes a broader point, which is a great one. We'll get into that with Fezzik, uh, next hour.
2:16
Uh, I heard someone reference our show without referencing our show, though. Oh. [laughs] It was like, "Oh, okay. Thanks, guys. Thanks." [laughs] Well, that's the other thing you can do.
2:24
That's the other thing about gambling Twitter you always love. What is it about our little corner industry that no one wants to acknowledge anybody else? Yeah. [laughs] I don't know.
2:33
The, the, the l- the lack of professionalism is just an amazing thing. Anyway, that's for next hour. Yeah. Uh, this hour we're gonna preview the Memorial.
2:40
Uh, that's the, uh, golf tournament where everybody has to shake Jack's hand, uh, afterwards, right? Oh, yes. When they walk off the green at 18. Afterward, before. Yeah. Every time you see him.
2:49
Uh, he is, after all, the GOAT, as the kids call him today. 18 majors, uh, the Memorial. Kelly will have his thoughts on that.
2:54
JVT, our senior NBA analyst, on now what is two series, two conference finals that are both at three to one. For that matter, we got four conference finals, hockey included, that are all three to one.
3:06
Um, but last night the Pacers get it done against the Knicks. Uh, we go back to MSG in a couple nights.
3:13
We have a, we have a game five closeout tonight at OKC potentially, and then potentially the Knicks, uh, you know, trying to stave off disaster tomorrow night.
3:23
So that's where we are, and then we'll go through the game, uh, last night momentarily. Will Hill will join us, all his bets, basketball, and, uh, baseball and beyond.
3:32
Um, by the way, tennis, two pl- two plays that have yet to start. Two plays that have yet to start, uh, remaining today, one on the men's side, one on the ladies' side.
3:41
Again, every host, every guest, every sport, uh, for every show is at vsin.com/picks for subscribers. I almost said for survivors. For subscribers. Uh, the remaining plays today, one on the men's side, Jensen Brooksby.
3:54
Oh, Jensen Brooksby. Oh, Jensen Brooksby. Ah. I don't know if he's ever met any of my people before. [laughs] Jensen Brooksby. Uh, Jensen Brooksby has a match later today against, uh, Sebastian Korda.
4:06
Love the number here on Brooksby, plus 265. His clay numbers are outstanding.
4:10
Can he get it done against a, uh, a player that has been, uh, well they both, they've both had their share of injuries, but Brooksby has not been on tour nearly as much as Korda has here in recent history.
4:20
But I got Brooksby at plus 265, and then on the ladies' side, we are fading Danielle freaking Collins. By the way, she is as unlikable as ever on the court. Oh, really? You watch some of her thing.
4:31
Oh, don't worry, I get it. I was a ball girl. She does, like, her, the manner in which s- she speaks is just so off-putting. Anyway, that's not the point of the fade.
4:40
The point of the fade is that Olga Danilovic has great clay numbers, and at plus 132 we're taking her as well. So Jensen Brooksby on the men's side, Olga Danilovic on the ladies' side.
4:50
The two plays we had remaining yesterday split, but when you're playing all dogs, that's not a bad thing. That's a good thing. That's a positive. Olga Danilovic. That's [laughs] That's right.
4:58
Sorry, just wanted to say it. Danilovic. Uh, the other thing that happened, so Will Hill, uh, not Will, not our Will Hill. Not the Will Hill. Who? But I'm talking about, uh, S- Will Hill Caesars.
5:08
Eric Biggio, uh, tweeted us during the show yesterday that they were gonna put up
5:13
best, or excuse me, most wins in the month of June for Major League Baseball, that market, yesterday afternoon, and in fact they made good on that, and they did. So I dove into full research of that.
5:23
Now, here's the thing. I don't wanna talk about it yesterday because Circa hasn't put it out yet. Mm-hmm. Um, so I, I may go ahead today and make a bet at William Hill Caesars. Okay.
5:31
But I want Circa 'cause Circa has the tie-breaking rules with the, uh, fewest win, excuse me, fewest losses and run differential, whereas Will Hill is a dead heat shop on this.
5:42
But good on Eric Biggio, good on William Hill Caesars for putting this out days in advance. We don't usually get that. Um, so anyway, I have, I've narrowed it down to four, narrowed it down to four teams.
5:52
The other thing that's started to happen with this is I get unsolicited DMs and texts with everybody telling me what their picks are. Mm. Right? Before I even have a chance to research it.
6:01
I hate being, you know, I hate, I, I kinda- You don't wanna be swayed... I don't wanna be influenced. Right. Yeah, yeah. I just wanna know this. I just wanna be in on the thing.
6:07
Anyway, I went through it and I didn't land on any of theirs anyway, but you know what their common team was? I'll tell you what their common team was that I am not betting The Texas Rangers were their common team. Okay.
6:17
All right. Everybody seems to love the Rangers. So, so what day should we plan on the, the Gil breakdown? Tomorrow? Friday? Well, let me figure out, let me go after the show.
6:24
I said I would do this yesterday, I failed to do so.
6:26
But I'll go out to the desk here afterwards, the ticket window, and I'll say, "Uh, hey, uh, Circa, when are you putting out your, when are you putting out your June wins?"
6:33
If they say today or tomorrow, I'll probably do it tom- I'll, I'll prob- well, if they say today, I'll do it tomorrow morning. And if they say tomorrow, we'll do it on Friday. That's right.
6:41
And if they say not even then, well, God help us, I'll just do it Friday morning. [laughs] Right. Yeah, we'll do, we'll do it Friday regardless. Yeah.
6:46
Here's, here's, by the way, here's the May most wins now with just three games left for everybody at the top except for the Phillies who are at the very top. They have four left, so the Phillies are in the catbird seat.
6:55
I think every one of these teams won yesterday, if I'm not mistaken. So the Phillies are eight... By the way, this is a very interesting month.
7:01
I, I don't recall seeing this in the eight months that we've done this, six last year and two this year, but after this group of six, there's not a team with more than 13 wins. Oh, that's interesting. Okay.
7:13
So there's a, there's a huge gap between these six teams and everybody else. The Phillies are 18 and six. The Twins, Cardinals, and Tigers, 17 wins, but 17 and six, 17 and seven, 17 and eight for tiebreaker purposes.
7:26
The Yankees and Cubs at 16 wins, but the Yankees 16 and seven and the Cubs 16 and eight. The Yankees have the best run differential, but it might not matter.
7:34
Um, and the main thing is the Phillies have one extra game to play. They're not only on top, but they get four shots at this, whereas the Twins, Cardinals, Tigers, Yankees, and Cubs only have three shots at this.
7:44
So you have the Phillies. Again, they were one of the five teams that we had isolated beforehand, and I just didn't pick them. I picked the Padres. That was the thing yesterday in Major League Baseball.
7:52
You see those two teams gacked six run leads? The Mar- Uh, I saw one of them. The Marlins put up a six spot against the Padres in the first.
8:02
Padres came back and won it, and then the, the Diamondbacks were crushing the Pirates six to nothing. Pirates, the Buccos storm back and beat them nine to six.
8:10
Was this the Marlins game that I just saw the, the video on the internet with the poor rookie second baseman? Oh, I believe that was it, yes. Oh my God. That's so sad, man. Yeah.
8:18
This is one of those, like, sad stories where the guy- I, I feel terrible for the guy. I'm sure there's people laughing at him.
8:24
It's like one of those stories where the guy's been in the minors for, like, eight years or something and gets called up and he makes three errors and he's crying. It felt so bad. Yeah. He's crying.
8:31
Like, he's really, he was so upset. There's no crying in baseball. There's no crying in ba- I felt bad for the guy, though. Uh, last night, Pacers get it done and cover. Beat the Knicks, uh, in a game that, um, well,
8:45
besides the fact that they played guys I like out of the c- out of the, uh, first quarter into commercial, which is a great highlight of that game, it wasn't super competitive after halftime.
8:55
Um, the, it, it was, it was nip and tuck. It was tied late in the second quarter, then the Pacers scored the last six points of the second quarter and then extended that run into the beginning of the third quarter.
9:06
So they actually went on a 14 to nothing run end of second, early third, to go up 12 points. Their biggest lead was 15 with 9:52 to go. The Knicks did make some inroads, but they never got it closer than six.
9:21
Six was the closest they got it. They did that a few times, but a virtuoso performance. By the way, the Pacers 130, the Knicks 121 in a game that was, what, 43 to 35 after the first quarter. Yeah.
9:34
Unders were, were donezo from the beginning. But a virtuoso performance from Tyrese Haliburton, 32 points, 12 boards, 15 assists. This was interesting because when we went into halftime, they said he had nine rebounds.
9:47
By the end of the third quarter, he only had eight rebounds. Did you see this? Yes, I did. Yes, they took a, a rebound away from him.
9:51
But he did get to the triple double, not only 32, 12, and 15, and no other Pacer had more than five rebounds, but he had four steals and zero turnovers.
10:02
That is the first time in NBA history that a player went 30, 15, 10 or better with zero turnovers in a playoff game. Unbelievable. And now we go back to New York, where the Knicks are fighting for dear life.
10:15
Will you have a play in game five? Uh, I took a little bit of five last night with the Pacers. You did? Yeah, yeah. Yeah. I, not, not big. Uh, we've got our series prices.
10:25
I'm not, I'm not, I don't think the Knicks are completely dead yet. Like, this has still been a f- I, it's still been a fairly tight series game to game.
10:34
I don't think there's a massive separation between these two teams, but, uh, you know, maybe the Knicks got a ch- got a chance, uh, back at home, and I, i- if, if it goes back to Indiana, though, I think s- it, longest we're seeing this is go six.
10:47
Um, but yeah, I, I, I, I was a little surprised seeing there was five and a halves that opened up. I wasn't able to grab one of those, so I took up a small piece of plus five on the Pacers.
10:55
I'm seeing some four and a halves now. That's right. It mainly went to four and a half. Yeah. I actually think it's, a lot of the spots are back out to five this morning. Yeah, mainly fives I'm seeing.
11:04
Um, so yeah, I, I'll wait. I think, I mean, if you're gonna give me over five, I'll, I'll be on the Pacers. It's just, man, they've got, they've got the Knicks playing their style.
11:13
That's like every time I see one of these first quarters, Gil, where it's the Knicks are running with them, and it's, I know they think, the Pacers do such a good job with teams like the Knicks, and this could happen with the Thunder too, of you get them believing that they can play their same style of play as well as they can, and it's just fool's gold.
11:32
You can't. Little, little Jedi mind trick they pull you. Yeah, exactly.
11:35
Uh, by the way, that, that whole thing we talked about yesterday when Brunson and Katt are on the court together, and then when you pull one of them off, it's amazing how that goes for the Knicks.
11:42
Brunson getting torched yesterday. As soon as you pull one of them off. Right, but as soon as you pull one of them off, things go well for the Knicks. Mm-hmm. Both together, not so much.
11:48
More on this and the game tonight with Will Hill next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Wanna bet smarter? Start with smarter insights.
12:03
Right now, you can check out Wes Reynolds' Memorial Tournament preview, Greg Peterson's MLB picks, and the Timberwolves-Thunder game five best bets. That is at vsin.com.
12:12
And later today, you can check out Jonathan Davis' Panthers-Hurricanes, that's Hurricanes, Kelly, game five picks, Steve Makinen's MLB analytics report, and Mike Somich's MLB futures to consider.
12:22
Right now, you can sign up for our annual subscription and get 14 months for only $199 with promo code PRO. Just head to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up today. We get tweets at Beating the Book. Las Vegas 514 yo.
12:35
Shout out to Drew Dinsick, and a great assist from one young Kelly Billin for the amount of time before the Flavio Cobolli match started yesterday, loaded up and hit. Definitely more than just a producer. Thanks, homie.
12:47
What did you do? Did you put it up quickly? I just, I, I just found the match and warned everybody it was starting in, like, 10 minutes. Oh, that's very nice of you. Yeah, yeah. Okay. Good assist. Good.
12:54
D- Good job Flavio got home. Flavio got home easy. Nice. Easy-peasy. Uh, DGen Southern Gent, "Maybe it's because I went to public school in the '90s and, and, uh, aughts- That's a good tweet...
13:04
but dipping the cafeteria pizza in ranch became the only way I was able to stomach it after eating it for over a decade." Only way to stomach pizza or only way to stomach ranch? No, the pizza.
13:13
So, like, that's where I'm like I, the, the- Oh, public school pizza... the worse the pizza, I'm far more okay with the idea of dipping it in ranch.
13:20
This is where I'm, like, talk- Like, it's kind of like steak sauce, right? If you got a good steak, you don't, you shouldn't need any sauce. If you got a good pizza, you shouldn't need any ranch.
13:27
Okay, that makes more sense. Uh, he, he asked, "Was this not a thing in the DMV schools [laughs] or down in Florida?" Well, I don't know about Florida for you, but for DMV, I don't know one person who did this.
13:36
I don't think I saw it. I didn't see it until, like, college. I think college was the first time I ever saw anybody do that. Jason McKinney, "Sorry I jinxed your May Padres bet.
13:45
I guess wearing my City Connect hat was a bad sign, but I had a great time visiting with you." It was nice to meet you as well.
13:49
Remember, uh, Jason was the young gentleman who, uh, he was wearing a Padres City Connect garb the day we- Looked good, yeah... we talked about the Padres, so. No, it wasn't you, Jason, I promise.
13:58
Sean's Fox Plays, "I love the most wet- wins bet in a month, but don't sleep on the team month wins under. Best bet continues to be Colorado under cash with six days left in the month. It was nine and a half.
14:08
Can't wait for June under number. Also, DK let you bet most wins in a division." Yes, they did. We mentioned that. Uh, and we mentioned both of these at some point, Sean.
14:17
The, the Rockies thing just continues day after day. What was their, what was their win total for May? Like [laughs]- Nine and, nine and a half. Wow. Yeah. Do you know what their record is in May?
14:26
What, what, what's it gonna, what's it gonna be for June? Okay, it was- Four and a half? It was nine and a half. So we, we only show the top of the May wins. Yeah.
14:32
You know what the Rockies', uh, what the Rockies' record is? What do you got? I want to get this correct.
14:36
I'm, uh, I'm scrolling to it right now and I'm- It was pretty interesting, you talking about that break, though, in the standings. Yes. 'Cause I thought you were gonna talk about, like...
14:42
I thought you were going, like, "We haven't really seen this many teams bunched at the top." Oh, no. And I was like, "No, no." We've seen that. I was like, "No."
14:48
I was gonna kind of push back, and I was like, "Oh, that's interesting, though. There is, like, this tier separation." Yeah. The Rockies are four and 21 this month. By the way, with a minus 97 run differential.
14:58
Four and a half [laughs] wins. Let's go. They can't get there anymore, the under wins. Uh, Steve the Proxy, "How is this possible?
15:03
The Rockies are on pace to spend three and a half million per win, more than the Mets' 3.2 million per win, despite having a fraction of the expectations. Colorado's payroll is 123 million.
15:14
Is this the worst team in baseball history?" It is shaping up to be, that is for sure. Will Hill joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at Not The Will Hill.
15:22
He is the star of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, Bear Bets Pods over at Fox, and of course, the Megapod during NFL season at Beating the Book. How you doing, man? Gilly, Kelly, what's going on?
15:33
Actually had, uh, had, had Kelly Billin on the podcast today for people that once they get finished listening to this and listening to Vsauce all day can check out. And Vsauce Prime Time too.
15:40
Got to, uh, got to throw Vsauce Prime Time a bone with, uh, my buddy Matt Humans. That's right. At the bar. Vsauce Prime. Which two nights do you do it? Thursday and Friday, uh, 7:00 to 11:00 Eastern.
15:50
Thursday and Friday. Humans and Willie on the show, on Vsauce Prime Time. Uh, I, I will say this because you were the first one to, uh, to wonder about this.
15:58
I asked Carl Sack about the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are trying to close out the T-Wolves tonight. Uh, OKC is a cool eight-point favorite. The total is 220 and a half.
16:08
But you, you brought up the fact that they have not covered a single game on the road during this playoffs. Has any team ever, we wondered, won an NBA title not covering a game on the road?
16:18
And Carl was kind enough to put it in the Killer Sports database. He says in his database, which only goes back to 2002,
16:25
no team since 2002 has e- has even started, has ever started 0 and 7 against the spread on the road in the playoffs, let alone gone on to win the title.
16:35
Closest comp, the '07-'08 Celtics, the, uh, KG, Pierce, Rondo, anything is possible Celtics.
16:43
They started 0 and 6 against the spread on the road the year that they won the title, but then they actually did cover on the road. So there you go. Thunder looking for that kind of history as well.
16:52
Uh, I actually remember that, that run pretty well, and I, I was betting back then. The Hawks actually in round one as massive, massive underdogs took them to seven, uh, and they got obliterated in game seven.
17:03
But that was one where that was a really dominant team for, uh, for a team to go, you know, seven in the first round. Uh, as far as tonight, it would be Minnesota or nothing.
17:11
I, I'm gonna have probably a small bet on Minnesota just because I, I've seen this before where young teams with a chance to either win a championship or go to a finals get tight.
17:21
I understand this is very narrative driven, but, uh, make comparison to this Thunder team to the first Warriors title team, 2014, 2015.
17:30
I remember them being in the same spot, up three games to one at home, chance to go to the finals, and they were just tight. They won, but it was close. I don't think they covered.
17:38
Same thing, Nuggets a couple years ago, chance to win the championship, they op- they, they bombed to Miami game three, game four, game five at home, big favorites, losing most of the way. They eked it out.
17:47
I, I could see a little nerves here. I could also see a scenario, to be honest, where games one or two happens and they, and they win it, and win it comfortably. I would just worry a little bit a- about nerves.
17:55
I'd worry a little about laying the, the eight. So I've been anti-Minnesota for the most part in the series.
17:59
I didn't agree with the analysis that the, the series line was too high, so it's not like I've been pro T-Wolves. But, uh, it'd be plus the eight or nothing for me.
18:06
So you can put me down for, uh, for, for a little Minnesota plus eight. I don't, I don't know if there's any eight and a halfs left, but, um, dog, dog for me in this game. Okay.
18:14
Um, by the way, for those who missed it yesterday, we're talking about, uh, 3-1 historically in NBA playoffs history.
18:19
Only 13 times in the history of the NBA, remember, and zero times has a team come back from a three to nothing deficit. Four have pushed to game seven.
18:27
But in 3-1 series, uh, only 13 times has a team come back from a three to one deficit. Uh, and only five of those times has the team that has come back from a three to one deficit not had home court.
18:41
So the T-Wolves are in that five historical subset. So it's gonna be real difficult, uh, needless to say, for them to come back and survive this and get to the NBA finals. What about tomorrow night?
18:51
We were just talking about this. Knicks also a three to one, but at least they have the home court, so they're in the eight subset, if you will, of the previous, uh, uh, amble that I d- preamble that I just had.
19:02
The Knicks are now five-point favorite consensus. I'm seeing some four and a halfs, 222 and a half. What do you do with this game?
19:09
Uh, I like the Knicks, but before I get to that, speaking of, of three-one in series history, th- this stat is, uh, is courtesy of Nick Duncan, who you talked about yesterday.
19:17
27 teams in NBA history, uh, I think it's 26, this would be 27, have been the higher seed in a seven-game series and lost in five.
19:25
If the Knicks lose this game tomorrow, Thibodeau would be the coach for four of the 27, which is really, really remarkable, uh, when you think about it. I like the Knicks.
19:34
I, I think that, boy, I, I just have a hard time seeing them lose all three at the Garden. I think Brunson will get some calls.
19:40
I, I know Indiana's not one of these teams where they get fat and happy once they steal one on the road or th- these games are not gravy to them where they are, you know, to other teams. They're just relentless.
19:49
They're very competitive. But I do think the Knicks will win and cover. I don't love the idea of laying four and a half, five, where the Pacers have looked probably like the slightly better team, in my opinion, here.
19:59
But, uh, I do think we're getting a game six. I don't think the Knicks are dead in the series. That being said, boy, I, uh, I, I really was not aware of how good Nesmith was.
20:07
This is one where, you know, watching the regular season can hurt you, it can help you i- in some aspects.
20:12
He is, boy, and Kelly, correct me if I'm wrong, 'cause you watch this stuff every night, one of the 20, 25 most valuable players in the league.
20:18
What he does offensively with the threes, I, I mean, he is the ultimate, ultimate three and D player and, and did you see this stat?
20:25
Brunson and Nesmith were on the court t- uh, last night for 30 minutes combined when they were both on the court. Brunson had 10 points. Brunson was on the court with no Nesmith for six minutes.
20:34
He had 21 points in those six minutes. So, uh, Nesmith, even with the bum ankle, is really giving Brunson a hard time. So that's, that's just, I thought, was a fascinating stat. Uh, Bridges has been bad for the Knicks.
20:45
Giving up five first round picks for that guy, that guy is just, man, n- not that good defensively, uh, doesn't attack the basket.
20:52
Th- there's a lot to be concerned about with the Knicks, but when you look at, like, 43% from three-point lan- land last night, uh, you know, 43 rebounds as opposed to 31, they did a lot of things well and still lost the game comfortably.
21:02
So again, I, I don't love the idea of laying points here, but I do think we'll get a game six. I'd be surprised if the Knicks really lost all three of these at home an- and lost in five.
21:09
That would be a, a bad look for the Knicks. But give this Indy team credit.
21:13
They are, they are relentless, they're competitive, and maybe, uh, maybe they're gonna be in the finals here a- and without having to play a six game, which, boy, wh- what were the odds you coulda got on that a, a month or so ago?
21:23
Geez. Yeah, Stan Van Gundy even mentioned at one point, Brunson, he was like, "Brunson is happy with anybody but, uh, Nesmith." Yeah. Kind of guarding him when Nesmith had to go to the bench.
21:30
Uh, baseball today, what do you, what do you got? Full day of Major League Baseball. I got a, a couple niche ones. Uh, Jared Young for the Mets. We were talking about this in the group chat. Uh, he's a DH for the Mets.
21:41
He's a call-up. He gets pinch hit for after, like, two plate appearances, so you can get under.5 hits, like minus $1.20. I played that. Sometimes he's only getting two plate appearances.
21:50
Uh, Sandy Alcantara, under 17 and a half outs. He has been just downright awful all year. He keeps getting priced like the guy that won the Cy Young a few years ago. He's nowhere near that guy. So those two.
22:01
Uh, I'm running up against the wall here, but I'll give you two futures. I think Jacob Wilson minus 170 at FanDuel to win Rookie of the Year is good.
22:07
I know laying a price this early in the season's dangerous, but he's so a bar- far and above the field, uh, I think that price is justified. And I did bet Luke Weaver 15 to 1 AL Reliever of the Year..60 ERA.
22:19
He's the closer for the Yankees. Uh, it's a good story because he was a failed starter. You got the New York market. I think that 15 to 1's a good price. Mason Miller's three to one.
22:28
Mason Miller's been awful, so I, I don't understand that, that pricing of that market. What happened to Mason Miller? Yeah. Thank you, Will. Appreciate it, man. Thank you so much. Feast in Primetime, Thursday and- Bye...
22:37
Friday night with you mans. My man. See you guys. Thanks. See ya. Courtesy of Progressive Gaslight. JBT, our senior NBA analyst on the other side.
22:44
Oh, one other note to add to that three to one historical comebacks in the NBA. That coach is nowhere to be found. That's next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:01
Don't forget to check out the Sharp Plays unmatched transparency with records updated daily, AI betting analysis, real-time global betting information, and alerts directly from the pros.
23:09
We invite you to check out sharpplays.com. I just wanna read this one tweet here, Kelly. This is from our buddy Tim Lawson, @thebetterlife, great podcast. Uh, Tim Lawson, also the Megapod historian.
23:23
He does a great job of, uh, tracing back all our guests and all the moments, uh, during the, uh, Megapod throughout its more than decade life.
23:31
He says, "I met a Marine who loved ranch dressing so much that he'd put it on his cereal if he didn't have milk." [laughs] Dude. That is disgusting. How does that replace milk? Like, like- It's so gross. I don't know.
23:45
R- Wyatt Tomchek, our buddy, says that w- when he was a kid, or maybe even today, he said he'll, he will just eat his cereal dry. Yes. He doesn't like milk.
23:53
Even he will not put ranch on it, and he loves pizza with ranch. Yeah, he, uh, yeah, he's, you know, he's back there eating dry cereal often, but I just thought it was a work thing. He's another story.
24:01
By the way, I didn't wanna, before we get to JBT, I wanna, I didn't wanna gloss over the stat that, uh, that Will threw out about Thibodeau. So let's repeat what he said, that in the history of the NBA playoffs,
24:11
um, 26 times has the favored team got beaten in five games. I'm, I'm shocked that it's that low in the history of the NBA. I mean, I- Yeah, it's a lot of games... I mean, I get it, right?
24:22
Because you're the favorite, you shouldn't lose in five. But Dom, Tom Thibodeau has been the author, if you will, the coach of three of those 26, and he could be four out of 27 if the Knicks lose in game five.
24:34
Uh, I was mentioning the three to one deficits and how it's only happened 13 times in the history of the NBA that a team has come back from a three to one deficit, and in the case of the T-Wolves, only five times where you don't have home court in f- games five and seven.
24:46
So I thought, I got to thinking, oh yeah, what's the Doc Rivers stat? Of those 13 times, Doc Rivers was the coach three times that gacked the three to one lead. Yeah. Th- those two are something special.
24:59
Uh, it was the Or- Orlando Magic in 2003, and then the Clippers twice in 2015 and 2020. He is not part of these playoffs, so we don't have to worry about that stat.
25:06
I don't know that we're fully out of the woods when it comes to two things in, in the NBA. Ti- Tibs being on the hot seat still- Yeah... and the Thunder going after Giannis.
25:16
Like, I don't think either one of those is completely done and set. [laughs] I love how you keep wedging that in. You want this to happen so badly. I know.
25:22
I'm just like, I think it's- What do you want better, Wemby and, and Giannis or that? Oh, Wemby and Giannis That's more interesting Yeah, Wemby and Giannis for sure Yeah.
25:29
'Cause if Giannis goes to the OKC and they make that work somehow, is this even fair? Uh, no, it's gonna be disgusting No, not fair at all. The 79 and 14 Thunder. JVT joins us now.
25:39
He, of course, is the co-host of Money Moves, which, uh, follows us each and every day with Stormy, Stormy Bonatony and Jonathan Vontobel. And of course, he's our senior NBA analyst as well.
25:46
He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at meJVT. How you doing, John? Uh, I'm good. I was better when I didn't hear about the ranch and the cereal thing- [laughs]...
25:57
'cause I'm a proponent of ranch dressing, you know, to certain means. I don't really like it on pizza that much, but, like, I like it with a french fry, obviously. Um, but that's, yeah, that's gross.
26:07
So I would assume that you just put all ranch dressing instead of milk in the cereal, correct? That's- You don't just- Oh, that's gross... like, put a smattering on top.
26:13
Which means that then there is ranch dressing left to then drink after you're done with the cereal. Oh. So then, like, do you do that? Okay. Let's- 'Cause that's always the best part of cereal is the flavored milk.
26:21
I get it. So I, I just don't know what to do anymore. So I, this is w- the only thing I brought up with Wyatt. I was like, "You ca- then you can't truly appreciate a Cocoa Pebble of some kind because they are- Correct...
26:30
best appreciated with the milk in it, 'cause you get the chocolate milk afterward. Or, or just the sugar milk- Yes... of a Frosted Flakes or something like that. Exactly, yes. Yeah. Exactly. Yep. Correct.
26:37
He's missing out. He doesn't know. Uh, John, before we get into your, uh, your thoughts on ga- on the game tonight and the game tomorrow night, West and East, I...
26:44
Forgive me if this is ground that has been covered on your show or on other shows, but did you hear Charles Barkley utter the phrase the Oklahoma City Thunder Invitational the other night on TNT? No. Yeah. Did he really?
26:59
I almost texted you. I, and then somehow I got distracted. But I was like, okay, wait a minute. He m- th- there must be some... He must be listening, because the... I was like, wait a minute.
27:08
There's no copyright JVT on this. No. He actually said that. Yeah, about the Western Conference, which you, of course, were the first to ever say that. And it looks like you will be correct here.
27:16
Uh, Minnesota's done tonight? Uh, I think they're done in the sense of, like, I think they lose. I think that this number is still, like, a tad high. Like, I'd probably go Timberwolves more than anything else.
27:27
Um, but I think that this is, this ends tonight. I think OKC has discovered a couple of things. This actually led me to a, a prop bet later this evening, but, uh, th- they've adjusted, right?
27:36
They, they at the start of the second half went to a single big lineup, which had Holmgren. Holmgren was incredible. Uh, the offense has not been good with Hartenstein out there.
27:44
They've been good on defense, but the offense has really been lacking. They've really discovered that.
27:48
They have, not figured out, but they have done a great job on Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle throughout this entire series. You know, it's...
27:55
I, I went on a little rant yesterday on the show, which, you know, I thought the conversation yesterday or after that game was like, "Ant's gotta step up."
28:02
Well, it's hard to step up when three conve- k- three defenders converge on your location every time you step inside the three-point arc, and you have to either shoot over all three of those guys or get out of that scenario.
28:11
They've been very physical with them. I, I've been amazed by what the Thunder have been able to do defensively to cut off the water within four feet of the basket for Ant, and I think that's going to continue.
28:20
So along with these offensive adjustments, I think the Thunder win. S- again, eight and a half is still a little too high for me, but it's not too high for me to enact a play.
28:27
And I also do worry about just the mental aspect of this Timberwolves team.
28:31
You know, I think, I know Kelly, Zach, and I, we were passing around in the Hardwood Handicappers group chat, rest in peace, um, this Chris Finch clip- [laughs]... of him talking about how, "You know, it's weird.
28:39
I haven't seen four, in four games I haven't seen a single off-ball foul called." So that's clearly in their head as well in terms of the way the series has been officiated.
28:46
I, I think they're done, but I think they have a shot at covering this big number. Yeah. It's big. I love Chris Finch so much. Uh, just the, like...
28:53
You, you know, you're not questioning officials if you just wonder aloud, Gil. You know what I mean? Like, it's the, "I just, I, I don't think I've seen a game where, i- i- in history- Mm-hmm...
29:01
where, uh, there's been, uh, fouls not called off the ball. Uh, it's weird. Real weird." The thing about, uh, was driving you crazy about people going after Ant, specifically it was Stephen A.
29:10
Smith, right, in the 45-second halftime where he's screaming about, "I don't care. You gotta get more than two shots," right? He's going on 45 seconds. And I just thought to myself, I'm like, Stephen A.
29:18
probably in his head, he's like, "Yeah, I'm just gonna go with this 'cause it makes me, like, 20 million a year. So what do I, what do I care?" Yeah. "I'm just gonna go with this kind of thing." I mean- Yeah...
29:25
I don't wanna... We're, we're a betting network. I don't wanna go too far into it. But I just, I think the coverage around the sport is just overall annoying from the loudest voices, and I think we need to do better.
29:33
Uh, when we're talking about Anthony Edwards not being a family man but then invoking MJ, Kobe, Shaq, and Larry Bird, uh, al- along with Magic Johnson, as family men when they were the face of the league, I think we've missed the mark in terms of how to cover these series and these games.
29:47
Probably true. Uh, what about tomorrow night? Now Knicks favored by five. Consensus seeing some four and a halves out there.
29:54
Uh, real quick, I will say tonight, I, I did bet, I say Hartenstein under 14 and a half rebounds at, uh... Oh... points and rebounds.
29:59
Um, we'll talk about that t- of course on part of Money Moves, but I, I don't think he's got a spot in this series. I think they're really gonna go to the single big lineup. I think they're gonna use Holmgren a lot more.
30:07
And then if they're not, then they're gonna go to the spot, the, uh, the five guards. So I just wanted to throw that out there. Um, for Pacers and Knicks, I mean, first off, T- Tibbs, what are we doing?
30:17
Uh, I don't know what he's been... Like, he's clearly grasping at straws in this series.
30:21
I, I thought there was a great moment, I think I said to Kelly and Zach again, where he's asked after the game yesterday, "Hey, why did you decide to go with Landrie Shamet?"
30:29
And he's like, "Well, I needed more shooting." And they're like, "Over Deuce McBride?" And he's like, "Uh, I needed more size." Like, it, it seems that- [laughs]...
30:35
he's very clearly just grasping at straws at this point right now with the way that he's coaching this series.
30:41
And I don't think it should be ignored at all that Jalen Brunson has not been good in this series, specifically on defense.
30:46
You know, I think you guys have talked about this, the statistics with his man being used as a screener. They're going after him on almost every single possession.
30:54
This new lineup that Tibbs unlocked in game three has been outscored by 20.9 points per 100 possessions when it's out there on the floor.
31:01
When Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns are on the floor together, they have been absolutely cooked. He has had no real adjustment to make.
31:08
And that, that doesn't even bring into the count, uh, that this team, of course, from an offensive standpoint, has been lost.
31:13
So for this, look, I, I'm amazed that the market is continuing to tell us that they think the Knicks are better than Indiana. This number should not be five.
31:20
This should be probably, like, three or two and a half, but we're factoring in the bounce back, I guess. I...
31:25
And the, look, the zigzag has been strong throughout this entire postseason, Gil, but from a pure numbers standpoint, I thought that this should be three. So give me the Indiana Pacers.
31:33
I, I think that we are, again, not giving them enough respect from a ratings standpoint. They are at the very least equals to the New York Knicks, if not better, and I think we have proven that to this point.
31:40
I have played the Pacers in e- in addition to having the pre-flop series price on the Pacers, I've played them every single game this tournament against the spread. Uh, this, uh- Yeah... series against the spread.
31:49
And I don't see why I would stop tomorrow. Uh, okay. Yeah. If it is in fact- That's been me from game two, if I could just note. Like, that's- Yeah... I'm with you.
31:54
Like, I came into this picking the Knicks in seven, but the way that this thing has been rated, for some reason because they lost game one, the Knicks then got upgraded.
32:01
[laughs] And then, like, every single game you're like- Yeah... "But what are we watching here?" Like, I don't know what the market has been seeing here, so I, I'm with you.
32:07
Um, if it is in fact Oklahoma City and Indiana Which again, non-betting related from a network standpoint, probably a nightmare.
32:16
Uh, but from a betting standpoint, or not from a betting standpoint, just as you see the series, short, long, do you think the Pacers can actually, you know, really make this interesting or do you just think this is an OKC run out?
32:28
I think to, to go back, I'll use one of the questions, uh, uh, that you used with me and for others during the Super Bowl, right? I think the question was, "Hey, if this is a blowout, what side is it more likely- Yes...
32:38
that it's gonna be a blowout?" And I think that the answer to that for this series is OKC.
32:42
Like, i- if the OK- if one team's gonna dominate and end this thing quickly, I think the Thunder would because it's that classic matchup of best offense versus best defense, and we see in these late season matchups in whatever sport that generally that defense tends to dictate what is going to happen here.
32:57
It's not that the Pacers are a bad, uh, defensive team. They've actually improved very much, but th- there's so many answers that the Thunder have with the way they can play on defense.
33:05
There's so many backcourt defenders for this wing heavy, backcourt heavy team that I think that they're going to be able to answer quite a bit. I think the Thunder will win this series.
33:13
Uh, and I think that it is likely that if they do, it is a shorter series, uh, in that range of, like, five to potentially six games, but I think five is a little more accurate.
33:20
By the way, uh, when I asked that question before the Super Bowl, if there is a blowout, which is the team most likely to be the author of that blowout, wasn't the answer Kansas City from e- from everybody at that time?
33:30
Uh, my answer was Philly. Yeah. So I don't know if that was... Like, I thought Philly was gonna blow 'em out in a very large fashion. So I, I think that was Philly when I was listening to a couple of people yesterday.
33:37
Oh, okay. So maybe it was Philly. I, I thought it was Philly. People got that part right. Yeah, people got that part right. Yeah. Okay. John, a pleasure. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. See you guys in an hour.
33:45
JBT coming up with money moves when we are done. Memorial Golf next.
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
