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May 29, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | May 29, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | May 29, 2026
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46:52
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0:00
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0:33
the sports betting network. The numbers told the story. They always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:49
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course SiriusXM channel 158. Gil Alexander, Kelly Midlin. Heyo. There they is, eh? How you doing, man?
1:00
Good, man. Happy Friday. Quarter zip from Kelly. It's a little chilly out. Little chilly. It is. The weather here is spectacular. Yes. I will take this all summer. I'll take it all summer, Gil. There you go. Yeah.
1:11
That's what happens, right? Where this place think it is, California? [laughs] It is beautiful. Unseasonably mild- Yeah... here in Vegas. Don't say it too loud because it'll, it'll change.
1:20
On the show today, Paul Carr, Champions League. We'll get to that this hour. MLB most wins, month of June. These are not up anywhere but William Hill Caesars.
1:30
I went through six, five, four, three yesterday in terms of my choices. I'll repeat those today, but today the reveal of two and one, and I only bet one, the top one, and we'll get to that. Most wins June.
1:43
We'll also take a look at May, the update, the last update of May before we get out of here for the weekend, 'cause we have three more days of May.
1:49
Special numbers game investigation reveals that June begins on Monday, and so we have three games. All the teams at the top have three games left, and you can still bet that at DraftKings.
1:58
Can't bet June yet at DraftKings, but you can bet May adjusted at DraftKings. Hmm.
2:03
Sort of like the, uh, third leg of that PGA Championship arc at the end of the year, the FedEx, where on the third tournament it's like a staggered start where c- certain golfers have strokes on others.
2:12
The Tour Championship. The Tour Championship. Thank you. Yep. And then of course, because it is a Friday, Falica and Fezzik, Chris Falica, World Cup and more. Steve Fezzik, a lot on his mind this morning.
2:22
Lot on his mind for Steve Fezzik. And in between Chris and Falica, uh, Chris Falica and Steve Fezzik, I should say. Not between Chris and Falica, but between Falica and Fezzik.
2:32
Storey Bonitatib, our own Storey Bonitatib, on the Stanley Cup playoffs and specifically Carolina-Montreal and how she feels about the Vegas Golden Knights going up against either, but perhaps specifically Carolina.
2:45
Con Smythe thoughts as well from Storey a little later on the show. Um, before we get into the game last night, tennis, there is no tennis left today. It was only two plays. A lot of, lot of chalk today.
2:54
I thought it was all justified. 0-1-1, Kelly, for, uh, 1.18 units back to the books. Lost on, uh, lost on Starodubtseva, minus 2.5 versus Wang Xiyu. She lost outright, by the way. Oh, Yulia?
3:12
Yeah. I don't know what happened to Yulia this morning. Come on. Yeah. Not good. And then Marie Bouzková, uh, we pushed that one, plus six versus Mirra Andreeva.
3:20
Expected better of that one, but we couldn't quite get there. Uh, she loses 6-4, 6-2. So give a, a unit.18 back. But nothing left today. We'll just have to watch Hodar here on the show. He's down two sets to one.
3:31
And, uh, when does Djokovic start? Is that during the show today? Well, let me check that. Just started. Just started. Thank you, Danny. Just started. Thank you, Danny. Djokovic going up against Fonseca.
3:39
So tennis from the French Open today. Um- You know what's gonna be fun is when w- old Juan Manuel Cerundolo loses his next match too. Oh, it's very possible. And you're like, "Yay." It's very possible. Way to go.
3:50
Remember, not our Cerundolo. Not our Cerundolo. That's the other Cerundolo. Yeah. Last night, game six, Western Conference finals.
3:58
Uh, Will S- Will, Will Hill was kind enough to have me on the Shoulda Bet More podcast last night, and my comment was this is the least competitive, competitive series I think you could ever see.
4:09
Competitive in the sense that we're going to game seven. What we all wanted to see, right? A collision course between the Thunder and Spurs all season long, and a best of seven goes to seven. What more could you ask for?
4:20
Well, maybe a little more entertaining basketball [laughs]. More, more competitive games, yeah [laughs].
4:24
Ev- ever since game one, this has just been bl- blowout city from that point forward, including last night, the proverbial must-win situation for the San Antonio Spurs to stay alive. Had to do it. Did it. 118-91.
4:39
A easy-peasy win. Uh, the total is... Uh, the total goes under, by the way. But, uh, Spurs cash easy for bettors, and we extend to game seven, which will be tomorrow night back in Oklahoma City.
4:54
The winner, of course, will take on the New York Knicks. San Antonio went up nine to two early on three threes, one by Castle, two by Wemby. He had a blocked shot in there as well.
5:02
Kelly texting everybody, "Show 'em god mode, Wemby." [laughs] You, you... OKC would cut it to, uh, 14 to 13, then a 12-4 Spurs run on four threes, two by Bassel, one by Johnson, one by Harper, got it to nine.
5:15
Then it went up to 13 by the end of the first quarter, punctuated by another Wemby three. A record-setting eighth made threes by the Spurs in the first quarter. Up 13.
5:25
Uh, they'd get it to 15, but then a 16 to seven OKC run to get it to a six-point deficit. San Antonio would get it back to 12. They led by seven at the half.
5:32
Wembanyama at halftime, 22 points on nine of 16 shooting from the field, four of eight from behind the arc. Dylan Harper, and I really felt like this was... I know he's been on the court- Oh, yeah...
5:42
but this felt like the real return of Dylan Harper last night. He loo- he looked like a different player last night- Yeah... for sure. 12 points at the half, five of six shooting, two of three from behind the arc.
5:50
San Antonio was shooting 50% for the field, 23 of 46. They were 11 of 25 from behind the arc. 44% at halftime. Wallace, Cason Wallace, led, uh, OKC at the half with 11. SGA had 10 on four of 11 shooting.
6:03
Spurs 65-60, then 72 to 64. This is really what you need to know. 72 to 64 Spurs, they go on a 20 to nothing run. That's it, Katie bar the door. They go up 28. 92 to 64.
6:18
A s- a span of time which featured 14 consecutive Thunder misses from the field, holding OKC without a point for seven minutes and 27 seconds of game clock. He says, "What is this, college basketball? Come on."
6:30
What are we watching? Kelly doesn't watch college basketball. [laughs] This isn't the NCAA tournament. You don't s- don't see the scoring drought bug pop up.
6:37
The Spurs scored 11 of that 20 to nothing run, 11 of those 20 points, unanswered points, when Wembanyama was on the bench. They led at 92-66 at the end of the third quarter. It was a 32 to 13 third quarter.
6:50
Lowest scoring quarter of the season for OKC. Fourth quarter you didn't need to watch. Lead got back to as many as 28, never lower than 22.
6:57
Starters for both teams were out, you know, before halfway through the fourth quarter. Katie bar the door. 118-91 Spurs. Wembanyama in 28 minutes, 28 points, 10 boards.
7:09
He spent the final nine minutes and 20 seconds on the bench. Harper with 18, Cassell with 17 and nine assists. SGA just 15 points on 6 of 18 shooting.
7:20
0 for 5 from behind the arc, and OKC, in total, 36.8% from the field, 25% from behind the arc. We're going to seven. And Kelly, I guess the question for you is, do you feel any differently about these...
7:32
Should anybody, whether you are on the OKC side of this or on the San Antonio side of this, feel any differently before ga- right now as they did before game one? Absolutely. I, b- in my opinion, absolutely not. Yeah.
7:45
I don't e- I don't either. I mean, it's als- like, I think in some of these, especially these last few games, like, whatever team's lost, you're like, "Okay, well I, I... Like, this is what happened." Yeah. So they...
7:55
I- in OKC the last two losses it's been awful shooting. J- I mean, awful shooting numbers- Yes... and SGA problems. And you're like, "Okay, what happened to game, game five," right? [laughs] This is what happened.
8:05
O- OKC c- That's right... comes back home. [laughs] Everybody makes their shots. So yeah, I, I mean look, I... We have a lot to talk about, but you setting it up that way also leads me to like, okay, we were...
8:17
I was on Spurs last few games. Okay, we big up a couple wins, one loss in that time. Looking ahead to game seven, man, like, picking a side in this game, in game seven. Oh. I don't...
8:25
There's nothing I'm gonna be touching pre-game. No. Like, a- wh- Just, just gonna try to root my Spurs future in. Yeah, man. And, and it's, it... You know, we tried to...
8:32
I, like we talked about this yesterday on the show. Like, yeah, it's been, it's been some ugly results in these games, ugly basketball at times, right? But like, you...
8:42
What, what I tr- keep trying to remind people though too, like, these t- these teams are so good defensively too, right? Like, and I know that's tough to like... And we wanna go over these SGA stats.
8:51
Okay, he's got one of the better perimeter defenders in the league in Stephon Cassell on him all game, and it's just, he... Like, he's having problems.
8:58
We haven't seen Wemby be able to put, like, multiple games together really, uh, consecutively.
9:04
And, and y- you know, and I think if you're, if you're a Spurs backer, right, the bigger, biggest concern that we've seen from, from Wemby recently, it's been, okay, game you look tired, then you look good.
9:12
Game you look tired- But you see-... then you look good... but you see, I think within that what you're just saying there is people overreact way too much game to game, right? Sure. It, it... Sure, they lost.
9:21
And again, it's like game five they got crushed. Everyone's like, "Oh, he really looks tired." Mm-hmm. He looked tired last night. Do you think he's gonna look tired in game seven?
9:28
I, I hate the, I hate the sort of confirmation bias of that in retrospect. I really feel like, as, as a g- I feel like the Spurs... I have a, I v- I just have a hunch the Spurs are gonna win this.
9:38
I, I do feel like the Dillon Harper return was in earnest yesterday. Yeah. He's b- he's been out there, but that was more Dillon Harper-ish yesterday. I think obviously Devin Fox looked better.
9:49
He looks a little more spry. And Jalen Williams, J-Dub, was only a l- could only go three minutes at a time in game six.
9:57
I was very confused by their decision to bring him back for that game, if that's what his output- If that's what the, what the plan was... that, that's wh- yeah, that's what his output was gonna be.
10:05
You're gonna ten- Three minutes at a time... three minutes at a time, 10 minutes in total. Three minutes at a time is very odd. And like, when you're up 3-2- Yeah...
10:11
right, to push him into game six, not to save him for game seven, or we didn't see him in game five for some reason. I, it... Yeah, I thought that was a little odd.
10:20
I, honestly, I, I guess I'll disagree with you on De'Aaron Fox. I thought De'Aaron Fox still looked like he was, he was slowed down. Well, he missed his first seven shots. That's true. He, he was.
10:27
There was a couple- Yeah... times that I saw him, like, go, like, take it to the basket, and, like, c- looked like he was hesitant to even, like, jump off of that, that leg.
10:33
But he's dealing with multiple injuries on a leg.
10:36
I hope, I hope that Dillon Harper is coming back on his way up, and that continues to rise, and there's no setbacks going forward, 'cause God, it's fun to watch when he's playing well.
10:45
Spurs are gonna have to not only beat the Thunder, though. They're gonna have to beat that home court whistle. Mm-hmm. Right? They're gonna have to... Please, please don't get in the way, refs.
10:53
Please, for God sakes, fouling or getting somebody in foul trouble of consequence. Uh, it's a three-and-a-half-point spread for game seven.
11:01
It's the lowest of all the OKC home games in this series, and so that's what it will be game seven tomorrow night. The winner will take on the Knicks.
11:09
As far as Western Conference MVP, Western Conference Finals MVP last night- Yeah... obviously if it's the Spurs it's gonna be Wembanyama. There's not a, there's not a path for anyone else.
11:18
If it's the Thunder that win tomorrow night, I felt like, and I was talking to Will about this last night on the podcast, I felt like even with SGA only having 15 points on 6 of 18 shooting,
11:33
I still feel like that was a negative for Caruso last night, who ended up with- Oh, it's-... seven points. Yeah. It, it... At best f- if you're, if you're a Caruso backer like Will- Yeah...
11:40
or me, at best it's a, it's a wash. And w- it, it's nothing and will, will be decided in game seven, but I'm with you. I think he needed to do more last night.
11:47
The problem is the more you drift away from his good performances, and he's... Two of the six games he's kind of been a no-show. Yeah, yeah. The more you drift from that, the less likely voters will be...
11:56
So y- e- essentially what I feel is for him to win it, OKC's gotta win and he's got to actively have another great game. He has to be. He has to be.
12:04
Whereas I think last night you might have gotten away with it had OKC won. If he was kind of meh-ish, but I don't think you can get away with that anymore. Yeah. Yeah, I don't know.
12:13
I, I, I think you were gonna need one good game out of him regardless. Maybe. So. We'll never know. And look, if inefficient games keep piling up for SGA, that was part of the handicap. Yep.
12:23
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14:15
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14:26
My man on the right there, doesn't that look like a little Bobby Baccala they got there in the animation right there? Mm-hmm. Looks like. That'd be the great Joe Defan there. That's right, Joe Defan.
14:34
Uh, you can scan the QR code for more. You know who was on the Just Win Bets, Baby! podcast this week? Who? Paul Carr, who joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
14:43
Uh, he is the, uh, czar, the emperor over there at True Media Networks. He joins us now from, uh, from a low-budget hotel at an airport somewhere where it is really well lit. Look at this guy. Look at the artwork.
14:55
[laughs] The, the eye- the eyebrows have never been darker. The lighting is fantastic. Where are you, Paul? Uh, I'm in Kansas City.
15:01
I'm about to head to Charlotte to cover a US men's soccer game this week, and they're playing Senegal in a World Cup friendly. Should be fun. Oh, great. Oh, what do you, what's your opinion on the friendlies?
15:10
Who would you imagine doing- From the, um- Yeah... I mean, they're, they're, they're necessary, like a necessary evil. Um, you know, these are a little bit different because it's pre-World Cup.
15:17
Like, we've got our actual roster here. Now we're ideally gonna start to play them together, play the style formation we wanna play. Uh, and US has a couple of good opponents. So these are different.
15:26
But the other ones, you know, like in the fall or something, uh, when they're relatively random, uh, sometimes those are tough because it's a, maybe not the A team. There's no big picture purpose sometimes.
15:36
But they're, they're just kind of you have to do it because you still need to get the team together around the coach and all that stuff. All right, I have several questions, uh, by the way. All right, let's go.
15:43
Uh, let's start with a, with a listener question. This is, again, from Icegoon. "My question," he says, "the season, uh, this season, the Premier League sent a record nine teams to next year's European competitions.
15:52
Villa and Palace already both won Europa Leagues this season, or won both Europa Leagues, I should say, this season.
15:57
Is this incredible strength of the league something to push us to Arsenal tomorrow in the Champions League final?" Um, I mean, the strength of the league is definitely a thing, 'cause you mentioned Villa and Palace.
16:07
I mean, Palace finished 15th in the Premier League, and they won... And it's like the CBI of European soccer, but they still won it and beat, caught some good teams on the way. Same for Villa.
16:16
They're a fifth place, fourth place Champions League team in Premier League, but they won the Europa League. Uh, so on the whole, I think it matters.
16:24
For this specific matchup, I don't think it does just because PSG is, you know, they're at that level, and they have, you know, as much or more money than any Premier League team, uh, to buy whomever they want.
16:34
So yes, on the whole, uh, but Arsenal was not...
16:38
You know, they won the league, but they're not head and shoulders above everybody else to the extent that it makes me rank them that far ahead of PSG coming into this matchup.
16:45
Uh, Kelly mentioned something off air, which I thought was interesting, is, uh, how did you phrase it? Is this the least, least sort of anticipated Champions League final because the World Cup is so close to this? Yeah.
16:54
It's like the biggest soccer game on the planet. Yeah, this, it's definitely getting overshadowed.
16:58
Um, plus Arsenal won the Premier League title already, so they have a trophy, so there's not as much pressure on them in that sense. But yeah, I mean, most of the national teams have called in their guys.
17:08
A lot of them are in camp. Some have had friendlies already. Eyes are already looking toward the World Cup. So it is a little bit, "Oh, by the way, we've got, you know, the biggest club match of the year-" Mm-hmm...
17:18
coming up this weekend," and it's definitely getting overshadowed by the biggest sporting event of the year of a four-year cycle coming up in two weeks. All right, so how are you playing this?
17:29
Man, so I mean, this is the classic, uh, what is it? Immovable force against irresistible object or whatever I'm trying to say. Unstoppable force, immovable object. Yeah. [laughs] Something like that.
17:37
Something like that. Yeah. There's, these two teams are good at opposite things is what I'm trying to say here. Uh, PSG is maybe the, the, the best counter-attacking team in the world, best team in transition.
17:48
They thrive on the chaos of everything. They want to hit you on the break. You know, if you watched any of that matchup against Bayern, especially the first leg, they're just trying to find the open spaces and run.
17:57
You know, fast break team as much as you can be in soccer. Uh, Arsenal's the complete opposite. They are built on defense. They have the best defense in the world.
18:03
Maybe the best club defense I've seen definitely in the last, you know, decade or so.
18:08
And they're designed to stop, to thwart whatever the opposing team wants to do, and to limit those transition opportunities, and they've done that this year.
18:17
They've given up the fewest shots, uh, in the Premier League, the lowest shot quality. Uh, they just don't give you chances out on the break.
18:23
They haven't allowed a goal from open play in six knockout games, uh, in this tournament. So that's the way it kind of s- sets up from a watching standpoint, from an on-the-field standpoint.
18:32
It's just your classic good offense, good defense match-up, and it's gonna be pretty fascinating to see, you know, who blinks, which one can win here. Arsenal +220 versus PSG. Yeah. Also, b- both teams to score, no.
18:45
Yeah. Yeah, so PSG's favorite here. They're like -145 to lift the trophy, which is different than win in 90 minutes, 'cause this can go to extra time and penalties.
18:56
I, I don't think the gap is that much between PSG and Arsenal, and if I have to trust one of these units, either PSG's attack or Arsenal's defense, I will take Arsenal's defense here.
19:06
They've, again, proven themselves the best in the world this year. They push you to places you don't wanna be on the field.
19:11
They, their positional awareness is just as impressive as anything, uh, the way they rotate, the way they move defensively and, and clog up the open spaces. So they're gonna try and grind out a one-nil type of win.
19:22
I mean, if you told them it's scoreless in the 60th minute, like they're thrilled about this. This is what, kind of they thrive on, what they've been doing all season.
19:30
So give- So I, yeah, I played Arsenal to win at +220. That is a 90-minute bet, so, you know, I, betting they can find one goal.
19:38
It's, you know, decent chances on a set piece, 'cause that's what Arsenal does, led the league in set piece goals this season, and PSG's just, just been kind of average defending set pieces. So
19:48
Arsenal +220, like that's a pr- really good price, I think, for 90 minutes. So I have Arsenal +220. Uh, both teams to score, no.
19:55
This is a, you know, throw up in your mouth a little bit kind of play because, you know, PSG may just, there's always a chance they just rip this one open and they're hanging multiple goals like they did against Inter in the final last year.
20:06
But again, Arsenal's gonna try to control things. It's gonna be hard for PSG to find space in the box or space in transition. So, uh, you know, and even if PSG does get a goal for this play, can Arsenal get one back?
20:16
Because, you know, they've shown all season they're not the best either at when they have to go get a goal at going to get a goal. So, uh, yeah, I have Arsenal to win +220, both teams to score, no, +105.
20:26
All kind of goes toward the same game story of Arsenal keeping this one tight and trying to pull it out by one. I like it. Well described there by you. Mm-hmm. Let's go to, let's, uh, let's go to the World Cup.
20:35
Before we get into, we're gonna rehash some of your picks. You have one to add here as well, I believe. Um, and we were joking. [laughs] The, the World Cup better happen, and it does happen in 13 days- Oh, gosh...
20:43
'cause Paul's gonna have a million bets if they, if, uh, if this thing- Right, right, right... doesn't start already. Uh, but w- w- Yeah...
20:49
you know- There's nothing, there's nothing like this from a sporting perspective. You got six months of buildup since you get most of the match ups. Yeah.
20:54
And not, you know, not all the plays are available, but more and more are coming online every week, so yeah, they keep suckering me in. We need to get this thing started. [laughs] We need to get it started.
21:02
I'm firing today. Uh. I'm ready. I've got World Cup fever. All right. We did our college baseball bets. I did college baseball yesterday. Now it's time for the World Cup. Soccer today.
21:09
Um, before we, we rehash those and get your additional one, French Open's going on this week. Obviously, most famously, Jannik Sinner up two sets. He's up 5-1. He cannot take the heat.
21:22
He loses to Juan Manuel Cerundolo, not even the better of the Cerundolo brothers. You know, some folks were calling it the biggest upset in sports history.
21:29
It wasn't even the biggest tennis upset in history, but I get the idea that it, uh- Mm-hmm... it's in the conversation. But w- it's about the heat there in Rome. Yeah.
21:37
Um, middle of the day, and you made this point, which I think we need to repeat about the World Cup. You know where I'm going. Could you please repeat it for everybody who might have missed it?
21:45
Yeah, I mean, look, there are games in Miami and Dallas and Houston and LA, and I mean, really anywhere in the US, New York, Philly, Boston, whatever.
21:53
Uh, breaking news, it's hot in June and July in those cities, I mean, pretty much anywhere in the US.
21:59
And you always hear from any European player especially who comes over to MLS and they play here, and they always just come like, "Man," like, "the heat here in the summer is just a different level than it is in Europe for the most part."
22:11
So I think, you know, that's obviously gonna disproportionately affect European players. And so I'm very curious.
22:18
I mean, they're gonna have water breaks, you have six subs, so it is a little different than it used to be. But I feel like the teams from this hemisphere are just gonna be a little bit better suited to deal with that.
22:26
And it's also gonna favor the better teams who just have better players. Mm-hmm. You know, we talk about how France could have a whole second team here that might make the semis or something like that.
22:35
Um, so that's gonna come into play because there are more games in this tournament. There's gotta be eight if you get to the final instead of seven like previous years.
22:42
So it's gonna be a little harder in that sense for those mid-tier teams to make a deep run because they don't have as deep a bench. Climate hemispheric bets.
22:49
I could see myself making a few of those, uh, in this World Cup. Mm-hmm. Yeah. We're, we're, we're gonna talk you into those for sure.
22:54
This is, this is the greatest contribution of World Cup betting, uh, Paul, since producer number three, the great Jorge Mondaca, uh- Mm. Right, yeah...
23:02
collo- collo- colloquially l- colloquially known as Georgie Bueno, used to bet World Cup bets- [laughs]...
23:07
by turning his back to me, looking up at the anthems being sung, and betting the side that he felt sang their anthem more passionately. [laughs] Georgie Bueno. Yeah. Oh, shout out. Probably had a lot of Italy back then.
23:20
That's, that's right. Doesn't have to worry about that at this tournament. They're not here, again. All right, uh, here's the, here's Paul Carr's World Cup bets. France to win the title +750.
23:28
Ecuador to win Group E at 4/1. Colombia to win Group K +250. Panama to advance +225. I'm gonna skip the next one. Uh, Rapino win the Golden Boot, 33/1. And then, uh, Mikel Oyar-Sabal win the Golden Boot. Or Sabal.
23:45
Or Sabal. Sor- Pardon me, the Castellano Sabal. Right. Win Golden Boot at 30/1. You did add that Scotland to finish last in Group C bet there? Yeah, so Group C here.
23:55
So the, the real question here, because Group C is Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland. So Brazil and Morocco are clearly the two best teams, and they're gonna get the top two spots.
24:05
So it really comes down to Scotland and Haiti. So this a little bit goes back to the climate thing that we were talking about in the sense that obviously Haiti is from here, their players used to the heat a little more.
24:13
These two teams play in the first game of the, of their group. So, you know, if Haiti wins that game, that pretty much relegates Scotland to last place right there. So it's almost a bet on that.
24:24
Um, and then, you know, assuming Scotland can't upset Morocco, uh, or Brazil, and I don't think they can. I don't think Scotland's quite as good as they'll get hyped up to be just 'cause they're a British team.
24:33
So yeah, plus 700, I love that. Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland, as Paul said, in group number C. Just gotta, just gotta let Haiti get by them. That's the, that's the key to this one. Let's go Haiti. Seven to one.
24:45
Let's go Haiti. [laughs] I'll be tailing most of these- That's great... so let's go. Paul, thank you. We'll talk a couple times more, at least one time more, before the World Cup begins. Appreciate it. All right.
24:54
Paul Carr, everybody. Coming back with MLB Most Wins in June. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. The clock is ticking on one of the best VSiN Pro offers of the year.
25:11
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25:37
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25:47
Jim Campbell, after l- after listening to the World Cup segment with Paul, specifically on his handicap of Scotland finishing last in their group, there's an option on DraftKings to lose all games in the group, where Scotland is 16 to one.
26:00
Ooh. Seems like gr- seems like good value, he says. I agree. Ooh, that's a Kelly bet right there. Yeah, that, that was one I was already gonna tail on- Mm-hmm...
26:06
tail Paul on, but I think that's worth, that's worth adding. Doug Tuttle, I'm seeing 25 to one on the Astros at Caesars. For whatever reason, they seem to get hot in June and have a pretty easy schedule.
26:16
Yeah, they were, they were on my list, and we won on Houston. We cashed in June two years ago on Houston, both at 17 to one and 25 to one. Michael Salvina. Michael Salvino, pardon me. I gotta go Spurs money line.
26:28
Me too, Michael. Got to, he says. Good luck to everyone. I don't think I'm gonna bet it, but I think that's gonna happen. I think they're gonna win. Joseph Freda, question for Fezzik today,
26:37
are the New York Knicks this year's honky-tonk man team? Okay. Well, we'll have to ask Fezzik about that. Uh, Chance Copperpot, as a Thunder hater, I can fully agree Presti's the best GM in sports.
26:47
He came out of the Spurs organization under Pop and RC Buford. Presti found Tony Parker and became the Supersonics GM at 29 years of age. Mm-hmm. John Schneider is the second-best GM.
26:58
I once, uh, hopped on a call with RC Buford. You know who set that up once? Who? Jimmy Vaccaro. Really? Back in the early South Point days of VSiN, yeah. RC Buford. Yeah. Need to swing by the South Point. Yes.
27:09
I haven't been over there in a while. I saw Crack's hot dog video yesterday and I was like, "Ah."
27:12
[laughs] It's got, in the back, I was talking about how working in local news, you'll never eat more c- more cake in your life 'cause someone's got a birthday or something every week that you're celebrating, and then I think I ate more hot dogs in a two-year span or something at the South Point than I ever have in my life.
27:27
And good for you, by the way. Very good for me. Oh, yeah. Very good for me. Good for you. Uh, let's give Chris Fallica a crack at this, uh, question that was asked by Icegoon earlier.
27:34
Chris Fallica joins us once again courtesy of the Progressive guest line. You can follow Chris on Twitter, by the way, Chris Fallica. That's clever. F-A-L-L-I-C-A.
27:43
And check out the latest Bear Bets pod, like I did this morning, World Cup preview. Yes. Let's go. I'm trying to get Chris and Paul to do a World Cup, uh, beating the book, but the man's busy.
27:51
We'll see if it happens or not. Here's the question once again. Well, I'm, I am busy. I'm trying to find the appropriate time for you and Paul, being that Paul has travel issues on Thursday.
28:00
I have a travel issue on Wednesday, and I have my own little Bear Bets show that I need to record on Tuesday. So I'm trying to find the appropriate time where I can accommodate you- Yeah, you...
28:10
a- a- and make this happen, because I wanna make it happen from the, the 2010 FIFA World Cup, uh, South Africa, uh, research, uh, triumvirate here.
28:19
The, the, the, the dream team of Paul and I down there going to Monte Casino with the vuvuzelas there. [laughs] I'm so jealous. Uh, bunch of black cabs in the middle of the night that break down on the road.
28:30
We can get into it on the... I'm, I'm, I'm making Kelly jealous of, uh, he, he's wanting to be there in South Africa at the, uh- Yes... at the World Cup like he was saying a couple- Yeah.
28:37
Well, it would've been your eighth year or something for that... a couple, uh, I am sorry, but you- That trip... but you didn't have to chastise me.
28:42
Do you ever see the Justin Timberlake where he said that when he got punked? [laughs] He's like, "Hey, I didn't have to chastise me." Oh, man. Uh, okay, here's the question from Icegoon, Chris.
28:49
Ice said, "This season the Premier League sent a record nine teams to next year's European competitions. Villa and Palace already won both Europa Leagues this season.
28:56
Is this incredible strength of the league something to push us to Arsenal tomorrow?" And you have a college football analogy for us on this. Yeah, it, it, it's not for me.
29:06
I, I like to, I'll make it try to, 'cause you said there are a lot of Americans who aren't familiar with all of the international leagues and such. I, I kind of, uh, make the Premier League as like the SEC.
29:17
It is the deepest, it is the strongest from one to whatever, and Paul had mentioned Palace, where they finished and wind up winning the, uh, uh, the, the conference league there.
29:28
However, you've got these, like the Big 10 has three teams at the top that were better than anybody in the SEC. Uh, the, the ACC had a team at the top, Miami, that was better than anyone in the ACC.
29:40
The Big 12 had a really good team in the top with Texas Tech. So that's kind of how I feel that it, it is with like, uh, in the Bundesliga, you have Bayern Munich, and then in, uh, uh,
29:50
in, in, uh, in France, you've, you've got PSG. PSG I think is, is the best team in the world. I like them to, to lift the trophy.
29:58
I think they have so many different, uh, answers offensively that they can, they can u- use and score, and it's weird. There's been kind... I, I'm, I'm tight with a couple of Arsenal friends of mine.
30:08
There's this weird vibe that they have about like the Champions League is kind of like this free roll now- Mm-hmm... being that they did win the Prem I, I don't know mentally were they, were they...
30:20
May, may, maybe it's just a fan thing and not a team thing, but, but it seems like Ar- Arsenal might, like, be just kind of happy they won the Prem and kind of whatever happens tomorrow happens.
30:31
But, but I like PSG to lift the trophy.
30:33
Here are the, uh, World Cup bets that Chris has made on the show prior to this appearance, uh, and I will ask him here which does he like the best and which does he already regret terribly.
30:42
Uh, Jeremy Doku to win Golden Boot 80 to 1. Belgium to reach the quarters, Doku's side, at 2 to 1. Spain to reach the quarters, -145. Portugal to reach the quarters, plus 125.
30:52
Morocco, remember that one, he got frisky, with Morocco to win Group C, plus 325. And then the tandem bet of Spain and France both to reach the final. They're on the same side of the bracket there. That's what it was.
31:03
Okay. Spain's plus 220. Yeah. France is plus 300. And then, uh, apparently there's no logo for Group E. They don't have logos per group. [laughs] So it's highest scoring group at 6 to 1.
31:13
Which of these do you feel the best about, and which of them are you like, "Oh, I don't know. I, I can't believe I did this"? Portugal to reach the quarter- Yeah... is the one I feel best about. Ooh.
31:21
Because I do think, uh, despite, despite the group that they're in, the, the challenge that they could have, uh, in winning that group, you win that group, you get a dream run in the r- in the round of 32 and the round of 16 to get to the quarterfinals.
31:35
So that is the one, uh, that, that I do feel the best about. Okay. And y- you're feeling good about all of them? None, none of them are like... Y- you're not- Uh, y- yeah. Okay.
31:43
I, I, I am feeling good, uh, good about, uh, good about all of them. I, I know, look, the, the Belgium play is a, is a price play. I mean, Mor- look, Morocco in there actually was a 5 to 1 out there.
31:52
I mean, that's a, that, that's a handicap that I, I made, and maybe Morocco can get a point against Brazil in the first match and, uh, go out there a- and win that group.
32:01
But, uh, yeah, I mean, obviously, do I expect Jeremy Doku to, to win the Golden Boot? No. But at 80 to 1, and I kind of m- made the path and the argument for, for, uh, Belgium. So yeah, I feel pretty good about that.
32:12
All right. Well, it isn't for another 13 days. Would you like to add some bets to this? What do you got? Oh, we're gonna add more bets today. We're gonna add more, more bets next week.
32:20
Um, uh, r- related to Group E, uh, I'm gonna take a little stab with, um, Ivory Coast to, to win Group E. It's 7 to 1. I know Paul had made a, a case for Ecuador, uh, in that group as well. So I'm gonna...
32:33
I, I think the Elephants are low-key lo- uh, loaded here. Uh, they have a bunch of young talent with, with Diallo, Yannick Dumont, uh, Evan Guessan, uh, Franck Kessie.
32:44
Uh, they, they've got really young, talented players and a couple of veterans in there, uh, like Kessie and some of the guys on, on defense that can really mold this team. And look, Germany is a side where
32:56
they have had flop after flop lately on the international level. Now, I know there's a new manager.
33:02
I know it's a n- a, a new team, that they've kind of blended in some younger guys like Goretzka and Musiala, and they got to the quarters, uh, i- in, in Euros a couple of years ago when they hosted.
33:12
But look, again, we talked about he- it, Toronto, Canada i- in, in July, it, it could, could be very warm, and that's something that I think, uh, could favor some of these South American, uh, African, uh, sides as well that are used to playing in some of these extreme temperatures.
33:27
So look, I, I think, uh, Ivory Coast is live. I think Paul has a great bet handicap for Ecuador as well.
33:35
You win the group here, you get a third place side in the round of 32, and then you'll likely get N- or likely get Norway if you finish second.
33:43
So I think if Ivory, if Ivory Coast can either win the group or get second in the group and then get Norway on the other side of the bracket, like, you've got a chance to advance, and while a team like Morocco is better th- than the Ivory Coast, they get a much more difficult draw where they'll probably gonna have to play the Dutch in their first knockout round match, and that is a much d- more difficult match up.
34:05
So I, I, I think there's a little bit of value on Ivory Coast here to, uh, ad- advance the furthest of any, uh, AfCon team. Okay. Uh, 7 to 1 for them to win Group E, 6 to 1 for them to be the top AfCon team.
34:15
And then I love when you make these bets 'cause this requires a little, uh, bracket analysis here. England, round of elimination, quarterfinals, plus 375. What's your thinking there? Uh, yeah.
34:27
We, we hit on it a little bit last week, and again, this is kind of a weather, uh, induced play, climate induced play, where England, if they win their group, Mexico, if they win their group, you're gonna get a round of 16 game at Azteca in Mexico City, England-Mexico, which would be just brutal heat at, uh, at that elevation.
34:48
However, it isn't a lock that Mexico win their group. This is not a great Mexico team. But if they were to win the group and get there, they'd have a good chance.
34:57
And you can kind of, you can kind of play Mexico there to, to beat England, to kind of hedge your bet here.
35:02
But if England were to advance there, regardless of who they play, their quarterfinal match would be likely against Brazil in Miami. And you talk about another heat, humidity, hostile environment.
35:15
The number of Brazil fans that will be there in Miami will be, will be through the roof. So I can't see England getting past the quarterfinals, so I'm gonna bet them to, to lose in the quarter.
35:25
And then if they wind up playing Mexico in the, uh, in the round of 16 at Azteca, I could always put a little bit on Mexico there to kind of go against the, uh, create a little, uh, self-created arb there that they lose one of the next two games.
35:37
And you will be prominent in World Cup coverage this summer, right? Front and center. I, I, I know I will be doing my podcast, and I know I'll have plenty of coverage on foxsports.com. Other than that, I don't know. Ooh.
35:47
Ooh. We'll leave it at that. Well- Tune in and find out... wow, okay. Thank you, Chris. [laughs] Appreciate it very much. Thanks, guys. Have a great weekend. You too. Are we sure?
35:56
Next on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
36:13
Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Vedlen- Heyo
36:20
Um, after our show, which, uh, happens at, uh, 10:00 AM Pacific, 1:00 PM Eastern, Prop Points joins us for an hour o- on the network, Nick Whalen, Jeff Erickson.
36:30
And then after that, it is Money Moves hosted by Stormy Bonatony. She has made some extra time for us this morning to talk some Stanley Cup playoffs. She joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
36:40
Stormy, good morning to you. What up? How are you guys this morning? [laughs] Doing very well. By the way, uh, if you wanna follow her on Twitter, uh, go Storm Bonatony. Don't do Stormy. Yes.
36:51
Apparently someone had Stormy Bonatony. Yo, was that taken? What happened? No, we just, we reached the character limit. Oh. Oh. There's too many letters in my last name.
36:58
[laughs] So if I had to pick somewhere to take a letter off, that made the most sense, no? Uh, yeah, that, I guess so. I, uh, suppose so. Bonatone would've, would've been another option. Yeah.
37:08
Uh, I have a question for you.
37:08
Before we get into all your picks here on tonight's game between the Canadiens and the Hurricanes, Hurricanes looking to close out the Canadiens, looking to take on the Vegas Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Final, uh, I'm curious, you cover the team, you obviously do work for ESPN in the NHL.
37:24
It got back to us, and this didn't surprise me, but I, but I was curious that it, that it finally was sort of out there, that the Vegas Golden Knights and their fan base are not beloved throughout the land. Is this true?
37:36
And how, how have you sort of soaked that information in? You've seen this with your own two eyes. Oh, yeah, they're, they're a villain of this postseason for sure now.
37:45
Um, but it's interesting because if you think back to year one, initially, there was so much love for the Vegas Golden Knights because if you didn't have a team, they could kind of be your team.
37:58
There was obviously the expansion draft and, like, everybody called them the misfits. They're kind of these throwaways from other teams, and there was a lot of affinity for them.
38:07
And then you think into the emotional element of it with what happened with October 1, the community rallying- Yeah... and how much people kind of fell in love with the story.
38:17
Then they made the Cup Final, and everyone's like, "Okay, well, that's a little jacked up." Like, there have been, uh, lots of us are waiting for decades to get back to that position, and it's year one you get there?
38:27
And then year after year after year, they continue to make the playoffs. They continue to find themselves in the Western Conference Final.
38:32
They won a Stanley Cup, and now they're in position to potentially win a second in four years. So people think that we're spoiled. People think that we are ungrateful for what we have as well.
38:44
And then you have the Kelly McCrimmon and h- higher leadership cutthroat element of it all as well, that Vegas has certainly become, I think, pretty villainous throughout the course of the league.
38:55
And then you look on the other side of the country right now in the Toronto Maple Leafs, for example, who really, really are frustrated because now Vegas has one of their own who is- Mm-hmm...
39:05
been exceptional [laughs] in the playoffs in Mitch Marner when, when he wasn't able to do that with them. Um, one more gossipy question.
39:12
How much does this franchise hate, uh, Bruce Cassidy, that they won't let him interview with another team? What's going on there? What's the story? Just a- It's, I, I really, really feel for Bruce.
39:21
And listen, he's doing the best that he can going out on all these different radio shows and podcasts and stuff like that, trying to make his case, and the fact that the Coaches Association has come out in support of him.
39:33
I get 100% where he's coming from, but we've also seen the league come out and support Vegas being fully within their rights to do this.
39:40
It's, I always say it's the golden rule, he who has the gold makes the rules, and Vegas is paying Bruce Cassidy. Yeah, they are. Vegas can do what they want to while he's under contract.
39:50
And, um, Kelly McCrimmon, their general manager, was just on the radio yesterday saying the only reason this is a story is because Edmonton leaked it and was very [laughs] frustrated with that, that he's had conversations with Bruce, understands where, where he's coming from, but he is doing what he thinks is best for the organization.
40:07
Hmm. And it kinda, it's what it is. There's nothing else anybody can do about it at this point. What I got from that answer, Kelly, by the way, w- how much did they hate him, was a lot. Yes.
40:14
That's what I got from that answer. Y- no. Yeah. And that stinks- Yeah... because I, I disagree with it.
40:18
It's bad form, but I also get it from Vegas's standpoint of the teams that are pursuing him are in your division, and that's, that's gonna be tough if Edmonton comes back with a new coach who's your old coach who you let go, and then they make a sick run in the playoffs.
40:32
Yeah. That's a good point. You know what, you know what I got from that answer? Hmm. Is Kelly McCrimmon, welcome to the coolest of male Kellys. [laughs] That's what I got.
40:39
How annoying is it when the two hosts of the show just g- grade the answer right afterwards? [laughs] Very, I'm sure it's very annoying to the guest. All right, Carolina- I'll allow it because it's you. I'll allow it.
40:48
Thank you. Thank you very much. Carolina, Montreal, Game 5. Carolina looking to close out the Canadiens and advance to the Stanley Cup Final against the Vegas Golden Knights.
40:59
If they do so, Stormy, this will be a 12 and 1 run to start the playoffs for the Carolina Hurricanes. How do you see this game? How are you betting it? Yeah, they've been unbelievable.
41:11
And I, I haven't bet a side in this. I do think that the Canes close it out. Selfishly, as someone who laid one and a half games with Carolina in this series, [laughs] I hope they do.
41:19
But the way that they came off of that game four win, it was the first time we really saw the scoreboard reflect just how one-sided the play has been in favor of the Canes because you have games two and three that end up being these 3-2 overtime games.
41:34
If you're a Montreal fan, you really fully believe that you're just a shot away. But Carolina fully outplayed them. And you look in this last game, it's a four-nothing shutout. Um, Carolina has 44 shots to Montreal's 18.
41:46
The shot attempts edge was 95 to 45. Oh my God. And I've heard a handful of pe- yeah, it's brutal.
41:53
And I've heard a handful of people saying, "Look, there was always gonna be a shot disparity in this series because of the way Carolina plays, and Montreal is more quality over quantity. We're making too much of it."
42:03
I say agree to disagree because this has been a historically low shooting performance for Montreal.
42:08
We have never seen in a three-game span in the playoffs, or excuse me, dating back to the time it was tracked in 1959, we have never seen a three-game streak in the playoff [laughs] where there have been this few shots on goal from a team, and I think that's gonna continue tonight.
42:23
Even if Montreal tries to come out guns a-blazing- What is that still for them? Like 18, 19, 20 shots on- [laughs] You know? That's rough.
42:34
It's just, they're so fatigued right now, too, that I think at this point in the playoffs, that's when that starts to really matter and take a toll. They've played as many games as you can possibly play in the playoffs.
42:46
Both of their first round series go to seven. They've played in seven overtime games as well, when you put that onto it. I just kind of feel like it's the end of the road.
42:56
I wouldn't kill anybody for looking at, you know, an over 2:1 Moneyline price on Montreal and saying, "Oh, it's a closeout game. Anything can happen." Sure. Um, I just won't be doing it.
43:07
And you have Carolina minus, uh, minus a game and a half in this series, so you're s- Yes... you're sitting pretty with that. Um, you have a lean to the under, is that correct? Yeah, I just...
43:18
I mean, the way that Carolina defends, and I've been betting unders on the Canes all post-season. I don't really think I should stray away from it now.
43:27
10 of the 12 games that they've played have seen five or fewer goals scored. Betting the opposing team total under has been extremely profitable. I'm not even a Freddie Andersen girl.
43:37
I have been so anti backing him for Conn Smythe, and now, given some of my futures positions, I'm like, "Do I have to bet Frederik Andersen for Conn Smythe?" [laughs] He's got a 144 goals against average right now.
43:47
It's just, everything tells me, again, and I go back to the fatigue element of it, too, everything tells me that this is gonna show up Carolina.
43:56
And if Carolina's dictating play, that means it's gonna be a lower scoring game.
44:00
That very first game of this series, guys, we saw Montreal, like, being able to have some of those breakouts and slide through the neutral zone. Carolina was so rusty and couldn't get to their game.
44:10
They have looked like a completely different group, like the one that swept the first two rounds, over these last couple of games, just in terms of eye test and game play.
44:18
And if that continues, then that means it's gonna be another long day for Montreal and a low-scoring affair.
44:24
Um, where do you stand, beyond your Carolina minus a game and a half in this series, where do you stand on all your futures? You're set up pretty good, right? So, good and bad. Oh, okay.
44:34
Um, because I'm very pro-Golden Knights. Like, as a, as a fan and somebody who lives in Vegas, I always bet Vegas to win the cup at the beginning of the year. So I have a 10:1 Golden Knights ticket. Nice.
44:45
And then as we got into the post-season, we had a lot of the conversation of, if there is a world where Vegas beats Colorado, then Mitch Marner at 12:1 is in his insane price. So I fired on that as well.
44:57
Carolina, meanwhile, is a team that I have bet, for the last five years, Gil- Oh... to win the cup. Oh. Year after year after year. Oh, no. Eastern Conference Final futures.
45:07
I didn't bet it this year because they've done me so dirty. [laughs] Repeatedly. Oh, man. And now I, like, I don't know what to do to hedge. So if you have any advice, please let me know.
45:14
I'm too heavy on Vegas and I need something on Carolina. I th- I mean, I think the, the clean way is Hurricanes win here, right?
45:22
They beat the Canadiens either today or tomorrow or the next one, or t- say, or two days, or one of these last three games, in other words.
45:28
So you get a Hurricanes, Golden Knights Stanley Cup Final, and not to offend Vegas Golden Knights fans like yourself, but the Hurricanes will be favored in that series. Mm-hmm.
45:35
And I think you just bet on the Hurricanes at that point on the Moneyline, on, on the series. It should be a m- it shouldn't be that big of a Moneyline. Yeah, that's the cleaner way. That's the cleaner way to go.
45:43
I'd probably bet one at 145 right now. Or, or you bet Caroli- that's right. Yeah. Or you don't even wait and you bet Carolina right now, minus 145. Ugh. But that does leave the Canadiens- Sure does. [laughs]...
45:53
open to kill you on both ends, so I would wait, personally. You know?
45:57
Well, I would say the one good thing about that is that in the, I think, conference finals or semifinals, it's, like, once in 73 times ever in history has a team down 3-1 come all the way back. So maybe you're right.
46:08
Maybe it should just be the minus 145 and just bite the bullet. One ain't zero, Stormy. One ain't zer- no, I think, I think you're probably safe, but I'm just saying. We'll go half/half. Yeah. Or something like that.
46:17
Yeah. You're, I mean, you're, you're probably good. What could go wrong- For sure... is what we're trying to say. Yeah. You're doing well. Now that you've said I'm probably good, that means I'm definitely hosed.
46:24
[laughs] Montreal's gonna win the next two, and then we'll have a g- it'll, it'll be a b- a whole thing. Before you go, your bets aside, in your heart of hearts, do you think the Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup?
46:34
Oh, think they do? I want them to, want them to. Think. We're asking, think. That's all I'll give you right now. Oh, that's all she'll- Wow. Okay. All right. That's all I got. Find out more on Money Moves. That's right.
46:44
Thank you, Stormy. Appreciate it. Stormy Daniels, everybody, host of Money Moves at an hour after we're on. Steve Fezzik, next. Fezzik Fridays.
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