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May 30, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | May 30, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | May 30, 2025
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34:38
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Kelly and I are arguing. Good Friday morning to you.
0:13
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. It's my little buddy, Kelly Bittling, everybody. Hey, man.
0:24
Producer number nine. So much more than a producer. Uh, Kelly, I contend, before we get into the show, is slightly, just a, just a pinch, a, a dash, a skosh of colorblindness.
0:36
Oh, I'll openly admit that, but that doesn't mean you're right about this p- this particular situation. You, uh, the, the debate is, is Kelly's shirt blue or black? It's black.
0:48
And I'm contending, and Kelly says there's no blue in his shirt, and I'm contending is it the same color as your keyboard keys? No, it's not. No, we, we both have black shirts on. This is not a, it's not black, though.
0:57
Black is the color of your key- never mind. Anyway, on the sh- They're just faded a little bit. That's all it is, man... show today. They're just not brand new. Stop, faded. No, stop it.
1:05
Matt Grissom to talk college baseball with us momentarily on the show. The Griss. As the regionals begin, and he's got game plays today. This is, this show is all about action. Yeah. We got action in all kinds of sports.
1:17
We got college baseball with Matt Grissom. Paul Carr on the Champions League is the number one champion sound. I fired a few bets this morning on the Champions League. Did you really? Yeah. Oh.
1:26
I lo- I love, Champions League semifinal, final, I love it. You do? Yeah. Really? I didn't know that about you. And, and, and Paul went right in the direction that I was hoping and thought he was gonna go. Oh.
1:35
So I tailed right along. Okay. And we'll review. You know what we'll do, since it's the end of the season here and d- we, we'll review all of his Premier League pre-flop plays from beginning of the year. I like that.
1:44
See how he did. He's the guy that moves the chains for bettors. Comes in, very little fanfare. Very little, yeah. Yeah, he's very soft-spoken. And all he does is move the chains every year for everybody.
1:54
He's had the longest break, uh, maybe in the history of a Numbers Game. Yeah, he's been chilling. We haven't had him on in, like, three weeks. Yeah. It's, like, incredible. Yeah.
2:00
Um, that's because of the end of the Premier League season is so, uh, you know- Yeah, it wasn't much this year... odd. Wasn't much this year. Odd and janky.
2:07
Uh, Chris Felica, ladies and gentlemen, will join us from his, uh, European tour. He'll talk, uh, College World Series with us, NHL, Stanley Cup finals, and, uh, and the UCL. Champions League. Yeah, Champions League.
2:20
[laughs] I had to shorten it down, bro. I was like, what are you doing? He's got- UCL, okay... Felica's got like- Champions League. It's normal Felica. He's got 16 things to talk about. That's true.
2:28
16 sports with Chris Felica, we guarantee. It's a Charles Barkley-like guarantee. [laughs] Meaning it'll never happen.
2:34
And then, uh, I'll, w- I, I, I might have buried the headline because coming up this hour, MLB June most wins. Now, the reason that I somewhat buried that is this is not gonna be the sexiest
2:47
segment on this a- as compared to others.
2:51
Uh, by the way, May, right now, the Phillies did get a split in their double header yesterday, so the Phillies have a one-win lead, uh, in the m- in the May contest for most wins. Everybody's got two games left.
3:02
Everybody who's in g- everybody in the league has two games left, but, uh, that includes everyone in contention. Phillies are 19 and 7, Cardinals 18 and 7, Tigers 18 and 8, and then you have three teams with 17 wins.
3:13
Yankees and Twins 17 and 7, and Cubs 17 and 8. So that, those are the contenders. And again, from the self-loathing standpoint, I gave out five teams at the beginning of May, and I ended up picking the Padres.
3:26
Stupid me, because three of the other teams were the Phillies, Tigers, and Cubs, and there are the Phillies atop that board, and there are the Tigers circling as well.
3:34
What is, what is- So I am hoping for the Cardinals or Yankees to win this so I don't hate myself. What did the, uh, what'd the Phillies do yesterday? 'Cause they had a double header, right? Split, split. Split it? Okay.
3:41
Split double header. Um, won the first game by one run and then got housed in the second one. Right.
3:45
But, but the, the trippy thing about all of this, again, is that these teams, this just in, have no idea they're playing for this title. [laughs] This is the, this is the quirk of this bet, right?
3:57
So the Phillies are not gonna manage these two games as if they're trying to win a monthly wins title this just in. 'Cause when we're watching it- Yeah...
4:04
and when our bets are on the line, we're like, "Come on, why isn't he putting it, why isn't he pulling the pitcher early?" First sign of, of trouble. I, I always wonder that with, like, March Madness if they- Ah...
4:12
'cause, 'cause the, I think one of the only things I was surprised about when I first moved to Vegas of, like, reactions in the sports book- Yeah...
4:19
it's the NCAA tournament games, like the first to 10, the first to 15, 'cause you're like, loud cheer goes up- They have no idea... and I'm like, "What's going on?" Like, the half's not over. Like, nothing's over.
4:29
That's it. Like, what did people cash? These, these are the weird bets where the players have no idea- [laughs]... they are playing along with your bet, right? So, um, that's where May stands.
4:37
And so June, uh, William Hill Caesars, our buddy Eric Biggio over there at William Hill Caesars, put, they put them out, what is it now, two or three days ago now? Two days ago- Mm-hmm... I believe it was.
4:48
And I wasn't the first to get there. The team that I landed on, I didn't get the best of the number.
4:55
I got, like, the second best of the number, and then I do the thing where I'm like, I'm hoping, okay, well, Circa will put them out, and then we'll talk about it on air 'cause maybe Circa, like in the case of the Padres, when I was so excited about the Padres, William Hill had it, like, uh, what was it, like 16 or 17, and then, and then Circa came out with 25.
5:10
I'm like, "Oh my God, 25." And then remember DraftKings came out with even a higher number. Yeah. This is golf every week for me. Yeah. Right?
5:16
So I wanted to do that, and then it's just, it's not gonna end, it didn't end up great is what I'm saying. Well, the problem is, is that- Yeah...
5:22
when you think Circa typically has a more favorable number for you, so you w- you want to wait, but then sometimes- Yeah... the best number that was available at the moment goes away.
5:34
Well, you're, you're, uh, I'm hoping that the listeners will get a better number than I do, and in this case it's, it's kinda...
5:40
Anyway, uh, Jeff Benson, shout out to him, because I had texted him after William Hill Caesars put theirs out, and I said, "Hey, when are you guys?" And he said, "What are you guys putting him at?"
5:47
He said they're hoping to do it Thursday, meaning yesterday. And then he texted me when it did come out, and so I, I quickly, eagerly went there and yeah. Okay, we'll do that in a bit. All right. I love that Jeff, uh...
5:58
I love that Jeff is, is posting this stuff and then thinking in the back of his mind, "All right, let me text Gil after this." Like, uh- That was very kind of him... posted and texting Gil.
6:05
[laughs] I did not expect a text. That was very nice of him to text me to alert me. Uh, okay, so we'll get into that in a bit.
6:10
Uh, last night we have, by the way, we have our Stanley Cup final set now for the second year in a row. We will have the Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers.
6:17
If you remember last year, Panthers won the first three games, and then Edmonton came back and won the next three games before Florida won game seven two to one.
6:28
Um, four times in the history of hockey has a team come back from a three to nothing deficit to win.
6:33
Remember, zero in the NBA, um, once in Major League Baseball, but, uh, four times it has happened in the history of hockey. Edmonton was efforting to be the fifth, and they just couldn't quite get there.
6:44
So Florida, the reigning Stanley Cup champs, but they're gonna do it all again. They're gonna do it all over starting on, uh, what is it? Is it... Um, we're showing Wednesday here. Is that when it's starting?
6:53
I believe so, yes. Oh, really? I thought it was earlier. Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So Wednesday.
6:56
No, I, I, I, I caught note of that the other day, that it was, it's, it, it was seemingly a later start for a Stanley Cup final, where I thou- I thought they did a much better job than the NBA of like- I did too...
7:05
quickly following it up with the final, but there is a bit of a break this year. DraftKings minus 110 both sides for the series. We're showing game one numbers right now. Oilers minus 125, favorites at home.
7:18
Uh, Gil, this is the time of year I will, uh, become a Florida Panthers fan for a couple weeks. Why? Uh, just to represent. Just to rep the South Florida. Just to, just to represent? Yeah, just to represent. All right.
7:27
Yeah. I didn't know you were representing. I ca- I already cashed my, my one, uh, s- hockey bet this, uh, playoffs. It was the Oilers and Panthers to meet in the finals, so that was nice. Oh. Yeah. Very nice. Yeah.
7:38
Sharp, Sharp, uh, NHL bettor JVT gave me that one. Oh, what number did you get on that? Plus 130. Okay. Um, I have dry sidle, 9-1, Conn Smythe, let's go. Let's get it done.
7:48
Uh, Oilers, uh, will have the, uh, the home ice, and this will be on Wednesday. This is when it starts. Okay. Coin flip on the series. Complete coin flip. Mm-hmm. Minus 110 each side. All right. And then the NBA.
8:00
Last night, this was, uh, I don't wanna say it was unwatchable, but it was kind of meh last night, uh, unless you're a Knicks backer and you loved everything you saw last night.
8:10
Knicks coast to coast beat the Pacers last night 111 to 94. This was never really in doubt, uh, at any point. Never really in doubt.
8:21
Uh, the Pacers, excuse me, the Knicks got it up to a 20-point lead exactly at one point, and we're like, "Oh, it's 20. This could get ugly now," right?
8:29
'Cause 20's been that sort of magic number in this playoffs where teams have these ridiculous comebacks, including these very same Knicks and Pacers. 74 to 54, but that was not to be.
8:38
Uh, eventually the Knicks got it to a 22-point lead. That was the high mark. They led by 17 after three. Uh, there was a bit of a Pacers run, um, and the Pacers got it, I don't know, what did they get?
8:51
The closest they got was 14 at one point in the fourth quarter, but that's as close as it got. Knicks win it 111-94. Brunson 32, KAT 24 and 13, as they have been banding this stat around all morning.
9:04
The first teammates since Kobe and Shaq to each score 20 plus in the first five games of a conference final. That's since 2002. Yeah, they should. There you go. Yeah. Uh- Good for them...
9:14
Matherin- Good that they need to... Matherin leading the way for the Pacers with 23 points. The Pacers failed to score 100 for the first time in these playoffs.
9:21
And I'll, I just wanna say this to you, Kelly, and by the way, of course, now it's three to two in favor of the Pacers. And the Pacers, the pressure swings to them now, right?
9:29
In game six, where they are f- they, they are now a bigger dog than they were the last time they were in Indiana. Am I seeing this right, that they were, that they're now four and a half point favorites?
9:40
Is that what I'm seeing? Yes. For game six? Yeah. Uh, or four. We're showing four, but w- okay, there's a bit of an adjustment. Oh, Pacers, oh, we're showing Pacers are four-point favorites. Yes, they're favorites.
9:51
Four, four-point favorites. Yeah. Okay, I was gonna say, four-point favorites, so that's a bit of an adjustment here. So that's the case.
9:56
This is Saturday night for game six, uh, as they try to close it out at, uh, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, formerly Conseco Fieldhouse, formerly Market Square Arena.
10:06
And I just, I, I'll just say this to you, Kelly, and I'm curious your thoughts again, 'cause An- Ant Edwards got a lot of flack for, you know, s- specifically from Charles Barkley, or excuse me, from Stephen A.
10:15
Smith, I should say, when he, that 45-second ESPN halftime show where he was screaming at Ant, "I don't care, you know, that you haven't had more than two shots, Kendrick. Come on, perk."
10:23
I, I don't understand the halftimes that, like, the, the networks cle- clearly have commercial inventory to make up for. Oh, it's ridiculous. They're like, "You guys have only got a minute.
10:30
We gotta play a bunch of commercials." Poor Malika. Um, so anyway, the, you know, so Ant caught a lot of incoming, and then the, you know, the counter from the NBA hardos was, "Yeah, but they defended him that way."
10:40
I, I'm gonna sound 1,000 years old. Tyrese Haliburton had seven shots last night. Mm-hmm.
10:46
I mean, I, listen, this is, I'm not, he's, no one would ever accuse him of being Michael Jordan, but you think, Kelly, you think the stars of yesteryear would've been held to that kind of shot output in big games like this?
10:57
It's really frustrating watching a guy like that who is so all-worldly one night and then just kind of disappears. Yeah, I think, uh- That's kind of his thing, huh?
11:06
Uh, this was, uh, like I brought this up the other day when we were talking about, like, Haliburton, I don't think it's fair to compa- compare a Haliburton to an Anthony Edwards to an SGA.
11:15
He's just a different point guard, and he's had these games through the season. I think it's 13 times this season he scored under 10 points. Yeah.
11:22
I, the more concerning, I get your point, and yes, you wanna see your star player step up in the big games. Bit more concerning w- number to me, six assists. If you told me he had- Yeah...
11:31
eight points and 14 assists- I think you're right... like we've seen out of Haliburton, fine. But he didn't get himself going. He didn't get his teammates going.
11:38
They looked lifeless and like the se- like the series was already over.
11:41
So remember I said in the last game in Indiana, I said if it were four, I wouldn't have taken the Pacers, but it was two, so I had to, and got beat on that. I don't know if I will on this one either. We'll come back
11:58
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on The Numbers Game live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas, majestic downtown Las Vegas. Oh, it's gorgeous. It's Gil Alexander.
12:09
It's Kelly Biddle everybody, producer number nine, so much more than a producer- Hey-oh... alongside. Hey, uh, Matt Grissom was on. He gave his college baseball plays, uh, but he didn't give all of them.
12:17
Would you like to hear the rest of them? I would. Okay, so here's what he gave. He gave out Oklahoma State, he gave out Kansas State. These are games today, right? Right. Oklahoma State, Kansas State, uh, UC Irvine.
12:27
He's also got Western Kentucky on the run line, though he has Georgia Tech to win that region at plus 180.
12:33
He also added for game today West Virginia over Kentucky, and he added UC Irvine to win their region plus 250, and he points out that the, uh, the top seed in that region, UCLA, three and seven in Quad One wins, whereas UC Irvine is seven and three in Quad W- Quad, uh, One wins.
12:53
So UC Irvine to win that region at plus 250. You had a golf bet, uh, you added as well? Yeah, I did, and, uh, just a reminder, all of Matt Grissom's college baseball stuff up at vsin.com.
13:01
Se- yeah, second round matchup play for me today, I bet Shane Lowry, uh, over Ben Griffin, uh, your current leader. Uh, Ben Griffin I think at some point will stop, uh, putting the lights out of the ball.
13:12
He had over three strokes gained putting yesterday. Um, Shane Lowry, guy we know plays, uh, well in the tough conditions, tough golf course.
13:19
He's a guy I have several bets on already this week, so gonna target, uh, Shane, uh, beating Ben Griffin in a second round matchup, minus 119 on that. All right.
13:28
Most wins month of June Major League Baseball, and again, shout out to, uh, to the shops for putting these up starting last year.
13:36
Uh, I don't, DraftKings doesn't have it up for, uh, June yet, at least before the show they didn't. Oh, really? Oh, really. So it's just the time they stop. Remember last year they stopped after April.
13:48
We got May out of them this year. Yeah. They still, what is it, May 30th? They still got time. Still got a day plus to put them up at DraftKings. We'll see. I don't know if they're gonna do it or not.
13:55
I just don't know why you need to wait that, right? I don't know. I mean, the window is only so... Th- but they, in their defense, they c- they leave them up all month, or they did last month. That's a good point. Yeah.
14:04
Yeah. So we'll see if DraftKings has it, but William Hill Caesars was the first to put these out this month. Circa followed suit yesterday.
14:11
Um, because I gave out, so I gave out five that I was considering last month, and because three, and s- specifically one is at the top, the Phillies, and second one, the Tigers, are i- tied for second place, um, even though I ended up choosing the wrong one, why don't I go ahead and give out the four that I considered this month, because a lot of people are gonna hear the one I pick and they'll be like, "Well, I'm not gonna take the one Gil picks.
14:33
I'm gonna take one of the three that he didn't pick, but that he considered." So the three that I picked that I, that, or excuse me, the three that I considered that I did not play, first was the New York Yankees.
14:44
Uh, the New York Yankees, who immediately William Hill Caesars put them out at, like, five to one odds, plus five.
14:51
They were the do- I think they were the short shot when this market opened at William Hill Caesars, but don't e- but don't hold me to that. If they weren't, they were right with the Dodgers.
15:00
But the Yankees, it's very understandable why they are a short shot. Um, very understandable because,
15:07
listen, they, they play, and this, there's a lot of this handicap with the, with the Yankees comes down to how do you feel about the Alex Bregman-less Boston Red Sox? They are a tough team to back right now.
15:19
So the Yankees have six against Boston, three at home, three away. Okay. They got four against the Angels. They got three against the Orioles.
15:26
All those Angels and Orioles games are in the Bronx, and they got three against the Athletics in the Bronx. Hmm. So I mean, that's a, that's a cakey schedule.
15:35
They do play the Dodgers, the Guardians, the Royals, uh, Reds, and Blue Jays as well. I mean, it is not a tough schedule. So the Yankees justifiably five to one at Caesars, plus 430 at Circa. I didn't like the price.
15:48
I didn't play it. Um, the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks, and remember, by the way, I was getting incoming texts and DMs, a lot of people like the Rangers. I did not.
15:57
Uh, the Diamondbacks were the second team that I considered. I like the Diamondbacks. They were 14 to one at both shops, both at Caesars and at Circa. Uh, they play, here's the thing with the Diamondbacks schedule.
16:09
If the Diamondbacks start early,
16:12
if, if DraftKings were to put these up adjusted all month long, they're a play-on t- because they closed nine out of their last 10 games for the Diamondbacks are at Colorado, three at Colorado, three at the White Sox, three versus the Marlins.
16:27
So nine out of their, before they close with one game at the end of the month- Oh, I like that... against the Giants. What, so what's the beginning of the schedule look like? Uh, a little more difficult.
16:34
They got one against Washington, but then they have three Atlanta, three Cincy, three Seattle, three San Diego, three Toronto. So it's not the hardest schedule in the world, but they close super easy.
16:43
The pro- I, I was all ready to play the Diamondbacks, and then right at the end of the month I'm just like, "But their bullpen is so bad," like just dreadful. "I don't know if I can do this," and so I didn't in the end.
16:55
I think you make a great point, though. If, if you're living in a DraftKings market- Yes... this is like us talking NFL win totals- That's right... right? You circle it when it might be a good time to jump in.
17:04
It, like, you might be down in the, in the wins column, right? But with that remaining schedule, and you might be able to get them at longer odds and 14 to one, that could be a good, uh, good play to jump in and make.
17:13
By the way, Yankees have 27 games in the 30-day month of June. The, uh, Diamondbacks have 26 games.
17:19
Third team that I considered but did not play in addition to the Yankees and Diamondbacks were the Giants, and remember, the Giants were one of my five last month, too. Uh, Giants
17:28
20 to one at Caesars, plus 1650 at Circa. Giants, one against the Marlins, three at Colorado, three versus the Red Sox, three versus the Marlins, three at the White Sox.
17:40
But, and I'm a Giants guy, I do not trust the offense through the entire month to end up being the number one team. I just don't trust it quite enough. So those are the three.
17:51
By the way, Giants have 27 games in the month of June scheduled.
17:55
So those are the three teams I considered but didn't play Now, no doubt the winner comes from that group of three based on how it's been going, based on how it's been going.
18:03
But the team I landed on, and this is where I, again, I apologize at the top of this show for this.
18:07
So the Detroit Tigers, I don't know if you know this, Kelly, but I'm just gonna share a little numbers game investigation reveal for you.
18:14
They're a special numbers game investigation reveals they are the best team in Major League Baseball. Hmm. Yeah. Yeah. No, it's a big, big investigation we have. Detroit plays 26 games in the month of June.
18:23
Among those 26 games, four at the White Sox, three at the Orioles, three versus the Pirates, three versus the Athletics.
18:31
The rest of the schedule is just one against Kansas City, three versus the Cubs, three versus the Reds, three versus the Rays, three versus the Twins.
18:38
But again, you have 13 games against the White Sox, Orioles, Pirates, and Athletics, and you are the best team in Major League Baseball.
18:45
Now, I apologize because the current price, and again, if you missed the top of the show, here's what happened. William Hill Caesars puts out their number.
18:53
I see on the screen, we're doing, you know, when they came out, you gu- you flashed up a screen at one point for William Hill Caesars.
18:59
I had not made my bet yet, and my whole thing with this is I, I wait for both shops- Right...
19:03
William Hill Caesars and Circa to put it out because, no, uh, I prefer to bet it at Circa because Circa has the tiebreaker rules, right?
19:10
Dead heats happen at William Hill Caesars, and by the way, we could have a dead heat this month as well. We had a dead heat, I believe, last month at William Hill Caesars as well.
19:18
Circa has tiebreakers, fewest losses, and run differential. I prefer to have the winner take all with the, with the tiebreaker. Um,
19:27
so the problem with that, I s- I looked up at the screen when I hadn't bet it yet, and you had William Hill C- William Hill Caesars up, and the Tigers were 22 to one. Yeah. Yeah.
19:36
They were 22 to one, and I'm, and I'm like, as I'm talking when we're on the show, I'm like, "Oh my God, they're 22 to one. Are you kidding me?" Right? So I couldn't believe this. So, you know, I'm sitting here waiting.
19:48
When the show ends, I'm waiting. I'm like, "Well, is Circa gonna put it out?" I text Jeff Benson. He says, "Oh, it's, we'll try to get it out by Thursday." So I'm like, "Okay, well, it's by Thursday.
19:54
Maybe I should go ahead and make a bet at William Hill." So I do. By the time I get there, it's 16 to one. Okay. All right. All right? All right. So I got, I got 16 to one on the Tigers.
20:05
So again, I apologize because I'm thinking, "All right, it's not gonna go down that much more, and who knows what Circa's price is going to be?" You, you, uh, again- Okay?... it's the same game I have to play with golf.
20:15
Yep. So I'm, I'm really, I, I, I had folks in mind, but I was just like, "Okay, I'm, I too am gonna wait for Circa," because just like last month, again, remember with the Padres, Circa came out with 25 to one- Mm-hmm...
20:26
and then DraftKings a- came out with, uh, north of 30 to one. Anyway, so Jeff texts me, and I go, I go eagerly to Circa, and I'm like, plus 510 at the time. I'm like, "Oh, no."
20:38
So I text Jeff back, I'm like, "Oh, your guys are way smarter." [laughs] So then I go, I go, "Well, well, hopefully s- William Hill Caesars will still have close to my number up," right?
20:45
I couldn't have moved it that much. And William Hill Caesars is now down to five-ish to one. Wait, but you got a bet in at 16. I got 16 to one. Okay, okay. All right. I did not get 22 to one, but I got 16 to one.
20:57
And you were hoping to add more at a similar price. [laughs] I was hoping to add more, and I was hoping to then have the listeners have a better price than I did, which typically happens.
21:06
Not typically, but often happens in this market. And so in the end, I got a really good price on the Tigers. And so the question is, would I now recommend the Tigers at this price? Yeah. I kind of wouldn't, right?
21:17
I would probably say Diamondbacks. That's who I would probably say now at the current price, but I am on the Tigers at 16 to one officially. Man, that, that Yankees schedule see- seemed, uh, pretty cake though.
21:29
The Yankees were the first ones. I'm like, "Oh, this is the cake- Yeah... roast of the cake." Yeah. But they were, they were never at good odds. They were always the shortest of the short.
21:37
So that's how it, that's how it goes for me, and so I ended up on the Tigers at a price that no longer is anywhere close to existing. And just again, uh, if this is any solace to you, I didn't get the best of it either.
21:48
Hmm. I'm sitting here looking at this screen when we had a number [laughs] 22 to one. That's just, I just wanna say this, this is the interesting thing about these markets.
21:55
We were just talking about in the College World Series how the price differential is- Oh, it's massive. Yeah... price difference is so massive between books to books.
22:01
Regardless of what happens here with the Tigers, that was just a bad number they put up. Yeah. Um, and Circa's was a, was a much sharper one. So that's the play.
22:11
If I were to jump in right now, though, I'd probably jump on the Diamondbacks at 14 to one. Yeah, well, the- Just hoping that bullpen holds up.
22:19
Well, Danny "Spreadsheets" Higgins back there has been tracking all this stuff, and I think he kinda, he didn't know who you were gonna play before the show, and he was like, he was kinda like, "I hope it's not the Tigers 'cause it was, uh, 22."
22:29
It was 22. I took the 16 though. I figured, "Let me get in on this- There you go... just in case," and there it is. Let's go June. Coming back with, uh, Chris Fallica, back from Europe. All of his plays next.
22:40
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
22:55
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game+, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158.
23:03
Appreciate you hanging out with us on this Friday morning, Gil Alexander and Kelly Bidlin. Heyyo. Heyyo. Uh, Beating the Book is my Twitter. We never do this. Hmm. Yeah, that's right. @kellybidlin is mine.
23:14
@kellybidlin is his. Uh- And make sure to get all of the VSiN shows on podcast form. That's right. If you don't listen to us live, check us out on, uh, on the podcast. Every show has its own podcast.
23:24
The Numbers Game is no exception. Or just check us out, all out on the VSiN Watch app. Great, seamless way. You're like, "What did, uh, what did Mitch and Paul say in hour number one last Tuesday?" Bang, VSiN Watch app.
23:39
Seamless to get there. Scrub right through to that very second. That's right. "What did Joe Cirillo say in segment seven last Friday?" VSiN Watch app, bang. You have to say bang though. Have I made, have I made my point?
23:52
Yeah, you have to say bang though when you hit the button. You have to say bang. Yeah, if you don't say bang, you know, it doesn't call it, doesn't do it.
23:56
Uh, still to come this hour, Adam Burke will join us, talk Major League Baseball. His Guardians are five games over 500. Uh, we'll do that with Adam.
24:04
And we'll find out when e- when exa- when exactly is that NFL betting guide coming out this summer, which he, of course, is the author of.
24:10
Mike Somich, co-host of Ready Set Bet, will talk hockey and, uh, horse racing with us. By the way, real quick before we get to Felika, who's back from Europe, uh, through reviewing our three document- I had three...
24:21
I had two documentary recommendations. Mm-hmm. I added a third.
24:25
One, one of them's sports, The Untold on Netflix with Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton about the guns in the locker room incident with the, uh, Wizards in 2008.
24:37
Spectacular documentary, um, with both Gilbert and Javaris being interviewed. Yeah. Current day. I gotta watch that. It's fantastic. I told you I was- I mean, it's so great...
24:47
I was go- I actually sat down to watch it and started the one you're about to talk about instead. Uh- And then I burned through it... well, the- and then there's the bin Laden one- Yeah, which is amazing...
24:56
for, for a bit of something different. The bin Laden three-part docuseries is amazing. American Manhunt: Osama bin Laden, also on Netflix.
25:03
And then the third one, which I just started watching, that's the Tylenol murders. For those of a certain age, you'll remember that from 1982. That is on Netflix as well. It's really, really interesting. All of those.
25:14
Those are your documentaries. What was going on with Tylenol back in those days? Uh, someone laced Tylenol with cyanide- Really?... and seven people died. Yeah, 1982. That's terrible. Yeah. Bet the country freaked out.
25:25
It was a little before my time, Gil. A little before your time. The co- the country did freak out, absolutely, rightfully so.
25:30
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he has not been in the country, but he's got a lot of docs to catch up on now. It's Christopher Felika, The Bear, from Fox Sports, joining us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
25:39
How you doing, Chris? Welcome back. I, I, I'm well. I figured I would throw my black T-shirt on to, uh, join you and Kelly, uh, back in, back in black here today. Yeah.
25:46
Okay, now you see the difference in those colors, Kelly? He, he really, really said that, like, he, his, Kelly's shirt has a tint of blue? No. What I... No. Well, wait, repeat yourself. No, no, no.
25:55
Repeat yourself, Chris. Yeah, e- e- e- exactly. No. Someone's- Let's- Y- you're the one that must be colorblind if you say- No, no, no, no, no... Kelly's shirt has a tint of blue. No, no, no, no.
26:02
What Kelly said is, "My shirt is black. There is no hint of anything else in it." Your shirt is black. Now look at Kelly's blo- Kelly's shirt. Is that the same color? It is not. No. Okay, thank you.
26:12
No, but it's definitely not blue. Yeah, but Chris, I didn't call it blue. It is more of a really good slate charcoal. I said a tint of blue. Yeah. Chris has got a sharp, brand-new black T-shirt on.
26:20
That's what's going on. Mine's slightly faded. Yeah. Yours is more faded. It's not faded. It's a different color. Okay. [laughs] Okay, anyway. Chris has my back. Thanks, man. I'm sure this isn't new.
26:28
By the way, appreciate, appreciate the Netflix suggestions, by the way. Yeah. Now, now we have, uh, no hockey for a few days. Get to, uh- Yeah, we have a break here... today. Well done.
26:36
Uh, okay, where did you go in Europe? What did you like best? What did you like least? We did Prague, Vienna, and Budapest with a little day trip to Ba- Bratislava in there. Uh, it was awes- I loved, loved Budapest.
26:50
Uh, two completely different parts of the city, the, uh, Buda Castle district up on the hill, the Pest district, uh, down below, more of a hustle and bustle. Uh, w- was fantastic.
27:01
Prague, I love the, uh, the attitude of the Czech people.
27:05
Not, not to give you a kind of a, a history lesson here, but we were walking around with someone of the, uh, one of our guides, and she was, uh, lived during the, uh, Soviet occupation and when they were under rule.
27:15
And, and ch- they, they did talk about how the way the Czech people kind of live these days. Like, we, we were, we, our, our lives were structured and planned for, for so long.
27:24
I mean, we don't have structure and plan anymore. We just kind of take it one day at a time and on a whim. So I, I love that attitude, uh, there.
27:30
And then we did Vienna as well and, and walked around, and we saw a little, uh... Actually, I, we saw, uh, the Royal Symphony Orchestra there in Vienna- Oh... which had, uh, your- Oh...
27:40
and, uh, Aaron Schatz's doppelganger in there. [laughs] It, it was great. You're so cultured. He's so cultured. It's a little annoying. What'd you, what'd you wear to that, Chris? It was great. Yeah, it's rich.
27:49
What did you wear? Um, well, I, I wore a, a, a black, I, I wore a, uh, a bu- uh, a button-down with a sweater and some nice, uh, nice slacks. Did not, did not throw on a jacket. Okay. Did not have to. Man said slacks.
28:00
All right, here we go. Yes. Uh, let's start with the Champions League. Let me guess, you're oppo Paul Carr. No, not, not at all. We're, we're k- we're seeing this thing pretty similarly. If you get- Good...
28:11
if you go back since, since that, uh, Liverpool, uh, Real Madrid Champions League final, it was 2018 when, uh, Sergio Ramos dislocated, uh, Mo Salah's shoulder on purpose. Yep.
28:24
And then, uh, they had a concussed goalie, which, from Sergio Ramos as well. And that was 3-1. All these games have gone under. Um, one-nil t- uh, two-nil, uh, stuff like that.
28:34
So I think we, with the, the defense that PSG has, and Paul touched on, uh, Yann Sommer and, and Donnarumma and, and the way these keepers make some unbelievable saves, uh, I, I think we're looking at another under two and a half type of game.
28:48
And I even, I even might take a little bit of a nibble on a draw, like plus 235 or so.
28:53
I could see this, uh, very, as good in the attack as PSG are, they did only manage the one goal against Liverpool in the, over the, the, the course of the, uh, the two matches, uh, b- back, uh, in around the 16 when they advanced.
29:07
So, uh, Inter Milan is certainly a little leaky, but the defense of PSG, I don't think Inter Milan are going to score very many. I could see this one-one, uh, potentially go into extra time.
29:18
So I'm gonna play under two and a half, and I'm gonna play draw. But I'm, I'm kind, I'm kind of rooting for PSG because I, PSG because I would love it for them to finally win the Champions League.
29:28
No, no, no Neymar, no Mbappe, no Messi, none of these, like, super teams. It's why I hate Real Madrid. I hate Barcelona. I hate City. I hate all these teams with money. They just buy up all these players.
29:38
Uh, L- L- Let PSG and the way they've, uh, built now and developed players and brought some new guys in, uh, would, would be a, would be a nice little thing to, uh, see PSG finally get their first title.
29:47
Yeah, I might, I might take a l- little nibble on the draw with you there. I like that. Uh, let's go to the College World Series. You have a play. Yeah.
29:55
I, I figured I would poke Kelly, k- poke, poke the bear, Kelly Bidlin there. Uh, I played, uh, Mississippi State around plus 300 to win the region and 50 to 1 to win the, the College World Series. Ooh.
30:07
They fired their coach, uh, who led them to a title a few years back. Uh-I've been, been playing really well.
30:13
They won nine out of their final 10 regular season games, uh, since, uh, elevating Justin Parker to be the interim manager. Uh, they got plenty of bats. Ace Reese, the SEC Newcomer of the Year.
30:22
Uh, Noah Sullivan, who can pitch as well. Hunter Hines, who I believe is, uh, the all-time home run leader in the program.
30:28
Obviously, their pitching depth is a little bit of an issue, but they do strike a lot of guys out, so they can get some easy outs.
30:34
It's a good test today, uh, and I believe it's today against Northeastern, who's a good pitching team. Uh, a 27-game winning streak.
30:41
A- a- and look, I, I'm not l- really trying to get Kelly wound up here, but at the same time, Kelly knows the history with Florida State and their inability to, to win the College World Series, even get there at times.
30:53
Yep. Uh, this was kind of a, a year where I think it's almost like house money for the 'Noles. Remember, uh, they, they did bring back Jamie Arnold, but they lost, like, three of their top four arms.
31:04
They lost their top four bats from last year. I think Blake Jarret's team has really overachieved, and I think the number nine overall seed.
31:10
I, I think this region, uh, i- is ripe for an upset, and maybe, uh, Mississippi State has a little bit of magic.
31:16
The old, the old Diamond Dogs, like, uh, their in-state rival, missed it a couple of years ago when you cashed that huge ticket. So Mississippi State 50 to 1 is worth a, uh, worth a flyer, I think. I like it.
31:25
Now, Chris, uh, Mississippi State, you on Northeastern, and me on Florida State. That should all work out well for all of us. Yes. [laughs] I'm on a few teams, but Northeastern is one of them. One's gonna win. Yeah.
31:35
Um, I'm also on Vanderbilt and Texas as well. All right, uh, let's go to hockey. The Oilers and the Panthers part deux. Uh, the series is a coin flip.
31:43
Do you have a play on the series or do you have a play on Conn Smythe? I, I'm, I'm not gonna play the series. Um, a lot of times though we've seen in recent, uh...
31:53
The, the last time you had a rematch the following year, uh, w- was, was Pittsburgh-Detroit, and Pittsburgh got revenge. I can remember growing up in, uh,
32:02
i- i- in, in '83, '84, when the Islanders beat the Oilers, uh, and then the following year the Oilers got their revenge.
32:09
So a lot of times you see the team that loses, uh, the previous year get revenge the following year. Uh, it should be a great series.
32:15
I took a little bit of a dart throw flyer on Brent Marchand to win Conn Smythe 60 to 1. Probably a loser. I, I openly admit it. I've made worse bets. But again, uh, he's got 14 points. He's plus 11.
32:28
Uh, obviously he's an a- an antagonist, a pest.
32:31
Uh, he's gonna have a, a big say i- if they win this series in kinda getting inside the heads of, uh, McDavid and Draisaitl and some of the other, uh, Edmonton goal scorers as well.
32:40
And remember, uh, if he doesn't score that overtime game winner, uh, against Toronto in game three, they easily could be down three-nil in that series and it's lights out and they're not here.
32:49
So I think Marchand, uh, despite the fact the, the, uh, the Cats have a bunch of, uh, options there, uh, to win the award, I, I think it might be worth, uh, just a little bit of, uh, pocket change on, on him at 60 to 1 to win.
33:00
All right. Three, three different sports seems light on a Felika segment. Let's go for a fourth. How about, how about- I know. We got a, we got an NFL play too. NFL, uh, awards play. What do you got? Yeah.
33:09
I, I bet Jonathan Gannon at 20 to 1 to win Coach of the Year. I actually got a little bit of a boost up to 30 to 1 on that which w- which was nice.
33:16
But remember, they were eight and nine last year when people thought they were gonna stink. Uh, they played hard every week.
33:22
Uh, that division I think is in kind of, uh, transition right now with I think the Seahawks are gonna be down this year. Who knows what's gonna happen with the Niners? Can the Rams run it back?
33:31
And if you look at the Cardinals record, uh, record rather, maybe you go eight and a half, over eight and a half wins 'cause they start Saints, Panthers, Niners, Seahawks, Titans, Colts, Packers.
33:40
That's their pre-bye week slate right there. They could be five and two, uh, entering that bye week, and at that point, the win total price is gonna, is gonna go up.
33:47
Maybe you go under and look for a little middle, and Gannon certainly wouldn't be 20 to 1 at that point. So, uh, added a lot of defense in the draft with Nolan. Uh, Will Johnson added Sweat in free agency.
33:57
So, uh, I'm, I'm, I'm scary, scarily, eerily, uh, high on the Cardinals and, and what, what could possibly go wrong with having, uh- [laughs]... confidence in Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals, right?
34:09
I c- I can't think of anything myself. [laughs] Uh, uh, Chris, as we go, Iga is through to the round of 16. She plays the winner of Rybakina and that hamburger, that kryptonite Ostapenko. Who you got? Unbelievable.
34:18
Rybakina or Ostapenko? Who you got? Uh, I'm gonna go with Rybakina. Okay. She, she played so well the last clay tournament. I think I, I, I think she...
34:26
Uh, it's amazing that Ostapenko really hasn't been great there- Please... since winning the French Open, but, uh- Please be Rybakina... uh, it'll be interesting. It's different. Yeah. Thank you, Chris. Welcome back.
34:35
Coming back with Adam Berg next.
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