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May 5, 2026
Best Of A Numbers Game | May 5, 2026
Best Of A Numbers Game | May 5, 2026
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41:44
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Transcript
0:00
Let's talk some hockey, shall we? Let's do it. So much basketball. Let's talk some hockey. Jake Hahn joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter @JHahn4. That's H-A-H-N.
0:10
Jake, of course, the co-host of The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show on SiriusXM NHL, co-host of NHL Fantasy on Ice pr- uh, podcast as well at NHL Fantasy. Jake, good morning to you. Good morning, guys.
0:23
I, I like all the tweets today. I especially like Hobbs and, and Kelly's tweets. Yes. [laughs] Those were the top tweets that you read. The best. Although there were some other good ones in there as well.
0:31
Only thing I know from basketball last night is that Timothée Chalamet picked the Knicks game over the Met Gala. So- Yes... another thing that me and Timothée Chalamet have in common.
0:39
It's a long list now of things we have in common. [laughs] Uh, picking sports over our girlfriends or wives or whatever it might be. So, uh, I... He, he gained a couple more points in my books last night, guys.
0:49
Such a great call. His girlfriend did go to the Met Gala, by the way. She went. She did. She had- Yes... what is refer- was being referred to as a nude dress. It was not nude, but it was like- [laughs]...
0:58
the, the coloring makes it seem that way. I'll get to the bottom of it. That's my, that's my Met Gala- Yeah... analysis for you as well.
1:04
[laughs] Um, what was it, what was it specifically about those two tweets that you loved s- never- [laughs]... don't ask that question. D- wait, did you guys catch- Um-...
1:10
the Timothée Chalamet manspreading, uh, uh, situation from the other game, uh, uh, in the last round with T- uh, with Tina Fey? She- Oh, he was, he was- He was boxing her out. Yeah... he was encroaching, encroaching.
1:19
He was encroaching, yes. Oh, that's not good. Never like the- It was a big thing online... the, the, the, the encroacher on an airplane. Not, not fun. And there was, uh, there, there were some pictures to back it up.
1:29
Yeah, it's- Wow... dial it back, Chalamet. Come on, Chalamet. Know your space. Stay in your lane. All right, Jake, let me just, uh, let, let's start from, let's start from the beginning here.
1:39
Are the correct eight teams in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs? You believe that these are the eight teams that deserve to be here?
1:47
It's a good question, always a good question to ask because, uh, so obviously a lot of years ago you might get one or even multiple teams that just sort of sneak through, maybe get a little bit lucky.
1:57
I think if you're maybe looking at one, it might be Montreal in that series against Tampa Bay, but it's so hard to call that team lucky. They've been really solid all season long.
2:06
I think it's really just game seven of Montreal-Tampa that stands out in a lot of people's minds, where they only had nine shots on goal.
2:12
They set a record for fewest shots on goal to win a playoff game, and it was in a game seven. Hmm. So just a frustrating loss for Tampa, but, uh, Montreal led more of that series than the Tampa Bay Lightning.
2:21
So I, I can't call them lucky. Uh, Tampa just never really got it going in that series, and Montreal got great goaltending.
2:27
And you have a great goaltender this time of the year, and Dobesh is playing well, you deserve to be in the second round. So I, I really can't look at a team here and say that they don't deserve to be here.
2:36
Anaheim is maybe a bit of a surprise, but they took it to the Oilers in most of the games in that series, particularly the games in- Now, we haven't had a chance to see the last between them and Vegas shift to the pond yet.
2:47
Uh, but they, they got uh, some great energy from that home crowd, haven't been in the playoffs for a long time. So to answer your question, Gil, I would say yes.
2:54
We probably do have the best eight teams from the first round advancing into the second round here. Yeah.
2:58
I think, I think you're probably right about the Montreal call, but hey, good, great goaltending is a tried-and-true staple of the Stanley Cup playoffs for sure. This segues into the next question in tonight's game.
3:09
We have a standalone today between the, uh, Wild and the Avalanche, game two of that series, with the 'lanche up 1-0 [laughs] after their 9-6 win in game one.
3:18
Let me just ask you about the Hurri- the Hurricanes who won last night and the Avalanche together before we get into the specific game with the Avalanche- Yeah...
3:24
and the Wild today, which is, the next question is, I mentioned this yesterday. So the, the longest streak of wins from the beginning of a Stanley Cup playoffs in d- in deep into the playoffs is nine in a row to start.
3:35
The 1985, uh, Edmonton Oilers of Gretzky and Coffey and Messier and Anderson, Grant Fuhr in goal, that team won nine in a row to start the '85 playoffs on their way to the Stanley Cup.
3:49
The Hurricanes are now after, they were down two to nothing to the Flyers last night. They come back, they win it in overtime. They won their first six now.
3:56
And now the Avalanche are trying to win their first six with a game tonight at home. That would be six in a row for them. Those two teams in general, do you feel like we could get one of them to nine?
4:07
Will we, will we get that? [laughs] And then how do you feel about tonight's game? I, I honestly wouldn't be surprised with Carolina getting there now because of what we saw last night. Gil, you mentioned it.
4:17
You know, Flyers get that 2-0 lead. That's exactly what the Flyers needed last night. The, Carolina had not trailed in a game all, all playoffs long. It had just been so easy for them.
4:25
So they hadn't even really gotten punched in the mouth yet, and Philly comes out, does so. Carolina responds. They come back. They still win the game.
4:32
That felt like Philly's moment now that that series does shift to, to Philadelphia, where they should get some great energy from that home crowd. So I could possibly see a sweep there.
4:40
I'm still gonna give the Flyers and Dan Vladar a game and, and probably see Carolina winning that in five.
4:45
But ultimately, just looking at these two teams, Gil, and I, I hate to say it because I'm always looking for value, I'm always looking for dogs, it really does feel like we're heading on a collision course for these two teams to play in a Cup final.
4:56
Now, the, the one I could see maybe getting tripped up is Carolina in a conference final. I think the winner of Buffalo and Montreal will put up a pretty solid fight in that potential conference final series.
5:06
I think this is Colorado's toughest opponent that they're going to face, and if they find a way to, to sort of breeze through Minnesota in five, maybe six games, I, I don't see the, the Pacific Division winner offering too much resistance to what this Colorado Avalanche team can do.
5:20
And the Avs catch a bit of a break here. The m- the Minnesota Wild, who you know, you guys know I loved in that series against the Dallas Stars, they kinda limp in.
5:27
They're already down the middle of the ice at the center ice position, Colorado had the edge, and Minnesota's down their number one center in Joel Eriksson Ek. He missed the first game.
5:35
He's going to miss tonight's game as well. That, they're already fighting an uphill battle against this team. Uh, that's one player they cannot afford to miss.
5:41
So, uh, I could see this being a Colorado, I'm still gonna, I'm still gonna give Minnesota a game, y- heck, maybe even two games if they can get the goaltending, but I, I see Colorado and I see Carolina both advancing.
5:52
Any play on tonight's game between the Avalanche and the Wild? So I, I, a couple props I wanna look at here, guys. I mentioned Joel Eriksson Ek with the Minnesota Wild, so that does offer up a, a opportunity.
6:02
We just saw a, a wild game, you mentioned it, Gil. 9-6 was the final in game one, and there was j- it was just a high-event game. Look at the shot totals.
6:09
It's not something you see very often in the NHL, certainly in the playoffs.
6:13
Ryan Hartman is getting that first line center role right now with Joel Eriksson Ek out, which means he's playing with Mats Zuccarello and Kirill Kaprizov, two guys that can free up a lot of space.
6:22
And Hartman, if he gets the minutes, has been a guy that's never afraid to shoot the puck. He had seven shots on goal in that first game. He's plus money for three tonight against Colorado.
6:31
I'd expect that to continue at that same spot in the lineup.
6:34
You could even maybe flirt with going four or five if you wanna ladder it up a little bit and sprinkle on those to see if he has another game similar to game one.
6:41
I'd look at the, uh, safe prop for, for Colorado's goaltender, assuming it's gonna be Scott Wedgewood tonight. It's sitting around over 24 and a half.
6:49
I do think Minnesota's gonna fire some rubber over Colorado's way, and he seems to be up to the task. And maybe, maybe, Gil, a contrarian play on the under in this game after such a crazy- Ooh... game one.
6:59
I'd, I'd wait till closer to puck drop to see where this gets. I think wanna bet the over here after what we saw in game one. If it's, if it's getting up close to seven, I, I'd see some value on the under here.
7:09
So that's a wait and see one for me, because I, I do think that these teams will wanna tighten it up a little bit after a, a pretty messy, sloppy game one.
7:16
Real quick, 30 seconds before the break, uh, the other game last night, the Golden Knights beat the Ducks in, uh, game one of that best of seven series.
7:24
Uh, Golden, uh, excuse me, the, the Anaheim Ducks, they, they tied it up late, but then Vegas comes right back and gets the go-ahead goal. They end up with an empty netter to make it a 3-1 final.
7:34
Should that have been icing on the go-ahead goal in your opinion, Jake? It, it's a judgment call by the official on the ice, but for me, I say yes.
7:42
I, I do think that it should have been icing, and I, I thought Anaheim caught a bit of a raw deal on that one. You saw how ticked off Co- uh, Coach Quenneville was behind the bench.
7:50
Quenneville was- He was not happy about that one at all... angry. But it's a judgment call. He made his call in the, in the moment.
7:55
It's sort of a bang, bang play, so, uh, you kinda have to live with it if you're for Anaheim and keep playing. I don't know how Golden Knights are doing this.
8:01
I don't know how they got, I don't know how they got by the Mammoth. I don't know how they... Up 1-0 here. We'll ask Jake if they have any shot if they have to play the Avalanche. And Khan Smythe Thoughts next.
8:12
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9:31
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on A Numbers Game, live from Circle Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander.
9:50
Producer number nine, so much more than a producer, Kelly Beidolon. Heyo. Hey ho. Uh- Starting a fantasy hockey league- No you're not... for the rest of the playoffs- No you're not...
9:59
if you wanna, if you wanna join, Gil, okay? My first draft pick, Scott Wedgewood. [laughs] He just- The names you're discovering? Yeah, discovering, yeah, right now, yep. Michael Kettler. Thank you for this, Michael.
10:10
He says, "First time tweeter. The tennis plays are not posted, but believe it is a one-day occurrence. Love the show. Cheers." Thank you, Michael. Michael Kettler, the voice of reason,
10:19
coming down from the, from the rafters. PK Mountain Steel is, he's, he doesn't, uh... I don't know if he's... Uh, he's got about four tweets here, but he, he's amazed that I'm staying away from the Cavs/Pistons.
10:29
I think that's the takeaway. Judd O'Connor, "Tim's girlfriend wearing a new dress. Kelly then says, 'I'll get to the bottom of it.' No stone left unturned during this three-hour window."
10:37
You know- Uh, we cover it all here... you know what I was a little sad about yesterday? We didn't get more reaction to our hard-hit...
10:42
I mean, look, I know people get, y- the audience have gotten used to Brian Ortega with his hard-hitting movie breakdowns. I thought you and I did a fantastic job yesterday in the final segment. Of?
10:52
Breaking down movies, ones that people should see. Oh, yes. [laughs] Yes, we did. Just the most- There was very little reaction to that... our most childish segment ever. [laughs] You should have a good time.
11:01
You know, you should really go see Charlie's An- You should really r- you should really rent the Charlie's Angels box set. Charlie's Angels. We didn't bring that one up. Yep.
11:08
Uh, Jesse Welch, "Fellas, we have a super cheap six-and-a-half total in the Wild-Avalanche game tonight.
11:13
Call me simple, but my hockey betting this season has been about 90% Minnesota Wild overs, and I'm going right back to it." So Jesse on the other side of Jake's, uh, thoughts on that. Jake going contrarian.
11:24
Manny Davison, "We got an explanation on MLB sponsoring PGA guys. What's up with bowling sponsoring the NHL playoffs? Who's funding this?" Oh, I didn't even notice. What? I'm getting to the bottom of that series.
11:35
That's even, that's even, that's even weirder than Stephen A. doing a, what's it called? Car, what is it? CarShield. CarShield commercial. Seriously, how much is CarShield paying?
11:45
Ladies and gentlemen, Jay Khan, kind enough to join us for our second segment, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Again, JayHan4 is where you can follow him on Twitter.
11:52
He comes to us from Toronto, Canada, the T-dot, the six. That's all I got. I'll stop. Um, okay. Let me- I, I- Yeah... I want more movie reviews, guys. [laughs] I, I want the movie takes from you guys.
12:05
So maybe, maybe deeper into the playoffs we'll, uh, when we've, when there's a little bit more time, right? Can I tell you how excited I am to see Michael? Like, I have a... People don't...
12:12
If you're of a certain age, Jake, this is, this is just us talking here, like these kids don't understand how big Michael Jackson was and how, when... I was, I was obsessed with this guy. Was obsessed.
12:23
I speak for millions of Americans. I cannot wait to see this movie. We're both so excited, Jake. We haven't gone yet. Oh, my God. But it's been out for, like, a week and a half. That's right.
12:32
And that I, I haven't seen it yet either. It's funny, my 18-year-old nephew saw it before I did. Him and his buddies went to see it, and they, I'm like, "What are you up to tonight?"
12:38
He's like, "Yeah, I'm going to the movies." "Oh, oh, what are you seeing?" He's like, "Yeah, me and the boys are going to see the Michael movie." [laughs] I thought, "Really?
12:44
I didn't, I didn't take 18-year-old kids for going to do that." And he, uh, he said he liked it. He said it, he said it was a good time.
12:49
He said it was very informative for somebody that didn't, uh, really live through that era. Ugh. Good for your nephew. Yeah, I hadn't really thought about that either, but an 18-year-old going to a Michael Jackson movie?
12:59
Yeah, like they have no i- he had no idea who Michael Jackson is, probably. Yeah. Barely.
13:03
For those of us who are Michael, who, who are, who are big fans, you know how p- everybody remembers where they were when JFK was assassinated of a certain generation.
13:11
Like, the night that he did the moonwalk on Motown 25- Mm... like this was just, like, a seminal moment of our childhood. That's how, uh, just, I can't even, can't even, I can't exaggerate it enough.
13:21
All right, back to hockey for a second. I left by talking about the Golden Knights. Golden Knights, it's, it's amazing that they're here.
13:28
They've won multiple games now that perhaps they shouldn't have, but somehow figured out a way to win in this short playoffs thus far, and here we are. They're up one game.
13:37
It, it, let's say they meet the Avalanche, just to project forward. I know we're way projecting, 'cause it's only one game in. Do they have any shot against the Avalanche, in your opinion?
13:47
And then if we talk about the East, and we haven't touched on this series yet, but Buffalo and Montreal, which has yet to start, so we're gonna have two series that are two games in before Buffalo and Montreal even start with their series.
13:57
Does the winner of that series have any shot against Carolina, in your opinion? I think the winner of Buffalo and Montreal has a much better shot against Carolina than the winner of Vegas and Anaheim versus Colorado.
14:10
That's how I would look at it.
14:11
I, I, I just felt like the East all year has been fairly wide open with a lot of really good teams, and that Atlantic division, which is the, the side that Buffalo and Montreal would be coming through, is a really, really strong division.
14:22
It has been for years. Now we're seeing some different teams this year than maybe previous years where we've had teams like the Florida Panthers and the Toronto Maple Leafs involved.
14:30
So there has been a, you know, maybe new blood in there in the Atlantic, but they're still very, very strong teams.
14:35
Uh, I would give either of those teams a, a very good chance against Carolina and maybe expose some things with the Canes that we haven't seen exposed yet, that the teams that they've faced yet haven't been able to do so.
14:45
Obviously, we still have to get there, uh, but I do assume Carolina is going to get through Philly. Uh, this is as close of a series as you're gonna get between Buffalo and Montreal. It's a very tricky one to pick.
14:55
But I, I would give one of them a very legit shot in that conference final, whereas I look at that Pacific versus the Central, I've been pretty steadfast all year, Gil, in saying that whoever makes it out of the Central division is going to make the, the Stanley Cup Final.
15:07
And I haven't seen enough from Vegas yet to, to change my mind on that. They're finding ways to win games. Carter Hart has stabilized the goal-tending a little bit.
15:16
I think he's been, uh, average to above average, which has been good enough for them to, to win these games. But they just look too slow to me to go up against a team like the Colorado Avalanche.
15:24
Even Anaheim was exposing that a little bit last night. I thought the Ducks were the better team for large chunks of that game. Ultimately came out on the losing end.
15:31
So I, I would assume Colorado, maybe Minnesota if they could pull off the crazy upset here in round number two, th- they would be headed to the, the Cup final for me. Sabres, Canadiens, what's your hunch on that series?
15:42
Where do you lean? Uh, this i- this is so tough, and obviously, uh, you see the price there, minus 110 for, for both sides. Boy, is it. I, I would agree with that pricing.
15:50
I would basically say, shrug my shoulders and go, "You, you guys pick. You guys figure it out." I think it's good. I think you're gonna see ebbs and flows to this series.
15:57
It's gonna be a great one to watch the energies in both buildings.
16:01
KeyBank Center for, for the Buffalo Sabres obviously not having a playoff game for a very long time, now getting to win a round of playoff hockey, and the Bell Center in Montreal is as good as it gets.
16:10
I'm very curious to see how many Habs fans can infiltrate the, the, the Sabres arena here, because they, they do a good job of that. They do it in Toronto. They do it in Buffalo.
16:18
But Buffalo's really good now, and everybody wants to go to the games in Buffalo, so those tickets might not be as available. I'm very curious what those games in Buffalo do look like.
16:27
I'm gonna lean towards Montreal here, guys. I don't see enough value on the pre-series price. I think you could be able to jump in at a better price as the series goes on.
16:35
I, there's just something special about this Habs team, and they just find ways to win games. I love how Dobesh is playing between the pipes. So I am gonna lean Montreal, but not a strong take on this one.
16:45
I think it's gonna be very, very tight. I, I could see it going seven games. It's great. And we're, we're just excited, Kelly and I, to see, uh, non-clashing hockey sweaters. Yeah, man.
16:53
Some classic hockey sweaters, as opposed to- Yeah... the Ducks and the Avalanche and the Golden Knights. Good God. Good God, what these color patterns.
17:01
Uh, and again, Canadiens- This is, this much better, much better goalie, or, sorry, a much better jersey battle here. Yes, much better.
17:07
And I, I hope, uh, Buffalo wears the black goat head jerseys at some point in this, uh, in this series as well. You said you like those a lot as well. Yeah. Those are d- I, I d- I do. I do. Yeah.
17:16
It's, uh, I feel like a l- a lot, some people are on the other side of it, but I, I do. I like the black goat heads. Sabres had not been to the postseason since 2011.
17:24
Canadiens trying to be the first Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup since 1993, when the Montreal Canadiens did it. Okay, to the question of the Conn Smythe Trophy.
17:33
Now, I, I say this for, not for Kelly, but for everybody else, 'cause Kelly knows this. Obviously.
17:39
That the Conn Smythe Trophy is awarded annual t- annually to the most valuable player during the entire, the entirety of the National Hockey League Stanley Cup playoffs. You knew that.
17:49
Nathan MacKinnon, a usual suspect, is a short shot here, is the short shot at plus 475.
17:55
Then you have a couple Hurricanes there, uh, Frederik Andersen and Logan Stankoven right there, plus, uh, this is 7 to 1 and And eight, plus 850, Cale, uh, Makar then of the Avalanche at 9-1.
18:06
Everybody else is double digits. Jack Eichel is the shortest among the Vegas Golden Knights, he and Mitch Marner. What's the bet here, sir?
18:17
Well, you can definitely see how the Habs got to the second round judging by the fact that the only name you see on that board is a goaltender in Jakub Dobes.
18:24
[laughs] So if you're looking at Montreal, you probably are, are looking at, at him. Uh, it, uh... Look, I, I know I said I lean Habs in that series, but I could certainly see Buffalo winning it. I wouldn't be shocked.
18:33
And then if that's the case, I could see them giving Carolina a pretty good series in, in the, uh, in the conference final. Alex Tuch is way down at 50/1.
18:41
Uh, he was 100/1 to, before the postseason started, and he was somebody I, I really liked a little sprinkle on. Uh, number's been cut in half. I still think a very fair number if you wanna get in on the Buffalo Sabres.
18:52
But if, if we're looking at the top teams, guys, if we do assume it's gonna be Carolina and Colorado and you want some value on those teams, I think I would look down the board on the Carolina numbers.
19:01
Stankoven, Frederik Andersen, very deserving for where they've been. Stankoven's been carrying that team, that whole second line, and Frederik Andersen's been really good between the pipes.
19:09
But I would look down to a Seth Jarvis there at 35 to 1, who hasn't had a huge impact yet on this series. Did score a big goal last night. He had a couple assists in, in round one.
19:19
That first line is gonna have to show up at some point for Carolina. They only have six wins of a possible, uh, 12 needed to, to win this, uh, to win this whole thing, right?
19:28
So, um, uh, that's, that's kind of where I'm at. Or sorry, 16. Six of a possible 16 wins. So they still have a long way to go before they could win the Stanley Cup.
19:37
I, I do think at some point Seth Jarvis is gonna have to show up, and, uh, a little bit of a dip on that number where we have a lot of games to go for Carolina.
19:44
Jarvis at 35 to 1, Alex Tuch at 50 to 1 would be a couple, couple I would sprinkle on right now. Kelly, no love for your guy Scott Wedgewood? [smacks lips] No. Uh, I, I mean, I love him, but, uh- I don't mind it...
19:56
Jake, Jake doesn't. His family invented golf though. I don't mind it. I, you don't mind it? Okay. [laughs] Watch. By the way, last- And I, rumor has it, yes...
20:04
la- last Conn Smythe Trophy winner from a losing team, of course, Connor McDavid with the Oilers in 2024. McDavid. So we don't have to look that far back. Yeah. It can happen if you're that kind of player anyway.
20:14
Thank you, Jake. Always a pleasure, man. Enjoy the game tonight. Thanks, guys. Take care. Jake, Jake Hahn, everybody.
20:20
Uh, ladies and gentlemen, he is a guy that I met on a, uh, on a forum board many years ago, like a decade and a half ago we can almost say at this point. Wait, really? Have I heard this story before?
20:30
I don't know if you have. I don't know if I've ever heard how you and Mark met. Yeah. We met on, we met on a, a forum board. Uh, he will corroborate this.
20:37
Uh, I immediately knew this was my kind of guy, and it evolved into a relationship where then, uh, we were such dorks, we would try to, like, invent metrics at spring training games- Sweet...
20:47
while watching spring training games, 'cause we're just nerd balls. It's Mark Borchardt, everybody, uh, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him at Base Winner, basewinner.com.
20:55
And of course, he's got his own Bet US... Not his own. Uh, yeah, I won't say it that way. He's part of the Bet US Baseball Show, which is, uh, weekdays.
21:03
He joins us now from, uh, an undisclosed location somewhere in the desert. How you doing, Mark? Joe, I'm doing good. You know, I think when the, some of the metrics that we made up are actually coming to fruition.
21:15
There's so many metrics now that I think that, like, we're in a, a state from a handicapping standpoint where we, I think s- more, there's, there's too much data.
21:25
And so I think we're struggling to kind of narrow down the data. And, uh, it was, it wasn't like that when we... I mean, we could use- Yeah... E minus F back in the day, right? Yes. Mm-hmm. Yes, we could.
21:34
E minus F is great, but now you can't, so that sucks. Dude, E minus F alone, we're talking about ERA minus fielding independent- Mm-hmm... that alone could make you a winning baseball bettor back in the day.
21:44
It really could. Like, if you, if you just went with that, you almost directionally would have a winning baseball season.
21:49
What was that ridiculous stat that you and I were trying [laughs] we were trying to come up with about- [laughs]... managers?
21:55
W- we wanted to, we wanted to quantify managers', uh, willingness or unwillingness to give their starting pitchers leash, and it, when we ha- we developed an acronym for it. What was it? LL... What was it? LL Cool H.
22:11
LL Cool H. Long Lease, Cool Head. [laughs] That's right. LL Cool H. Yeah. It didn't, never caught on. The, you know, the one- You guys are so good... that we were- Yeah...
22:18
we did make up was Expecting, Expected Fielding Independent Defense, and- Yes...
22:23
I think that that exists because they're doing, like, you know, how fast a guy gets to the ball and then l- then, like, you know, what percentage of times this is catch, and so they do run saved off the...
22:33
So they actually have that. Uh, it's, it, you kind of go to go a long way around it to distill it, but there is Expected Fielding Independent- Yeah...
22:41
uh, that we envisioned back, back in the day, way before StatCast, so. Yes, we did. We used to laugh at ourselves 'cause we was like, "This'll never be a thing." [laughs] All right, so, uh- Yeah...
22:49
I just, so I, I just wanna do a little update here, uh, four games into May.
22:52
Last night, uh, the 0 and 3 Seattle Mariners, our Mariners, were down four to nothing to the Braves, and then Stevie Fezick, like clockwork, texts, "This bet has no chance.
23:04
There's no way they can come back from 0 and 3," and they're down four to nothing in the game. And all of a sudden, because he texted that, the Mariners exploded. Five runs to beat the Braves yesterday, five to four.
23:15
We're off the schneid in May. Yankees, Rays, Royals, and Cubs, not to mention the Pirates at 3 and 0, but the Yankees, Rays, Royals, and Cubs start out the month at 4 and 0.
23:25
So, um, like I said, uh, uh, getting swept by the Royals, not good for the Mariners, but you win two of three from the Braves or good- goodness if you sweep them, all's forgotten, 'cause that's the hardest team you gotta play the whole month.
23:37
How do you feel about the Mariners as a team in general? Man, they are frustrating to watch offensively. Yeah, they are. You know, I had them last night, so I'm, I'm like high on them right now.
23:48
But if, if you're looking at them in the standings, they're, they're 17 and 19. Uh, ex- expected numbers are a lot better. T- they should be 20.5 and- Mm-hmm... 15.7.
23:58
And you're just, you're looking at like the, an offensive production that's 3% better than average, but the xFIP's really good, a 93 xFIP, which, uh, puts them like in the top five. I think number five, exactly.
24:10
And then, and then, uh, defensively, they're still pretty solid. A, a 10 runs defensive save.
24:15
So I think, you know, for me, Gil, and I've been saying this and, and, and making bets that don't hit o- on this Mariners team, but I think that they might be the team that's gonna face the Yankees, uh, in the ALCS.
24:26
Yeah. I, I mean, I agree with you about them, and hopefully they can get it together in this month, 'cause that's where our, where our bet is.
24:32
It, it doesn't, it doesn't help that you have guys like Rivas in the batting order, which are just like batting order stoppers, where you're like, where you're like, "You know, good God. S- what, what are we doing?"
24:42
Well, and one of the things that's gonna kinda, one of the things that's gonna hurt that bet is that they're, they've lost, uh, they lost Brach, uh, and they've, and, uh, Spier.
24:53
So two of the really good high leverage relievers, they're, they're out for I don't know how long, but it's gonna affect that monthly bet, Gil.
25:00
And then Raleigh's like, I mean, he's listed on the default lineups, but I don't expect him to hit tonight. And so I think he's, he's more day to day, and I think he's probably more not day to day.
25:11
What did you land on today? Um, well, today I, I think I'll start off with the parlay here. Uh, base one of parlay gonna go, uh, Philly, uh, and the Dodgers. And it's, it's a little bit of a plus, plus bet on the parlay.
25:25
It's a plus 128. Uh, both pitchers, like Ohtani's, like the numbers are really good on him. Uh, you're looking at, uh, a 34, uh, percent last 17 median strikeout percentage. Uh, BBK is elite. Stuff+ is 97th percentile.
25:42
And then he's going against a guy name, named Peter Lambert, and I don't know, I think the guy's has a good name for an English actor. Mm-hmm. But the, the numbers really don't justify anything.
25:52
So, uh, I- they're at minus 225. This is one of the things where my model kicked out minus, minus 200, and I, I, I don't agree with my model. We're gonna kinda be a renegade today, Gil, and go against the model.
26:04
That's the first leg of the parlay. And then the other team, uh, the Phillies, I like this game at minus 219. It's in market right now at like minus 185.
26:13
Uh, Sanchez is the number six pitcher for me, and he's another guy. You got the elite BBK, you've got Stuff+ and 98th percentile Stuff+. And then, um, one of the things about him is he doesn't give up a lot of home runs.
26:27
It's 1% per plate appearance, uh, home run rate. And then if that's not good enough, you got a.28, uh, per plate appearance, uh, total bases, which is the lowest on the card, I do believe, today.
26:38
So it's Philly and, and, uh, the Dodgers, uh, in a parlay today, Gil. Okay. That's the parlay. Uh, by the way, it's Elder against Kirby in the Braves, uh, Mariners game. Mariners slight favorites in that one.
26:49
Uh, Mark Borchardt with your parlay of the day and a, and a joke about British actor, uh, name out of central casting as well. Sure. Throw it in there as well.
26:56
He would be like, yeah, like he'd be like in, in, in the remake to Escape to Victory. Do you ever see Escape to Victory? No. With Michael Caine and Pelé and- Oh, Victory. Uh, w- no, Sylvester Stallone was in it. Victory.
27:07
Yeah, Victory it was called, I believe. Yes. It, it, it's, it... I- maybe I thought it was called Escape to Victory. It could've been Victory, whatever, but dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun.
27:15
The, the, the theme was beautiful. Mm-hmm. Anyway, I do have a, I do have a straight play for you- Yes, please... if you guys are interested in that. I am so interested. So, yeah. Yes. What do you got?
27:25
I'm, I'm gonna go with To- I'm gonna... This is, this is kinda like, y- you know, the numbers are really even. Like, if you look at the starting pitchers, the bullpens, the offense, everything's really even.
27:35
But Toronto's getting a little bit of, you know, plus money, so plus 118 with Toronto, uh, on a game which I think's, uh, even. And I, I, I like, uh, Gausman a little bit better than, than Rasmussen.
27:46
I got Gausman, uh, 37 out of 150 guys, and, and Rasmussen 46. So I, I think that this is an opportunity to do a, a coin flip game, Gil, at a plus money price. Plus money price.
27:59
You guys are annoying with your, uh, trivia expertise. I just went to go look it up. Victory in the United States, Escape to Victory in the United Kingdom. Wow. So how about you both- Wow. -being right. How about that?
28:10
[laughs] Wow. Wow. I was sure I was correct about that. [laughs] But apparently I was only domestically correct. Only domestically correct. Yeah. Wow. Okay. Good for you.
28:19
He's more of, he's more of a renaissance, he's more of a cosmopolitan guy. Impressive. Good. Um, Mark, real quick before you go, by the way, any other plays today, or could I ask you a broader question?
28:28
Oh, you know what? You know what a good one is? And just real quick. Please. The, the Pittsburgh, Arizona game, I like the over. I've got it projected for, uh, 11.9 runs. I don't like either pitcher.
28:38
Uh, I'm not a big fan of, uh, Bubba Chandler, at least not yet. And then Erod, other than the beautiful start that he had in our Venezuela bet- Yes. [laughs]...
28:47
uh, I, I think that that, that's gonna be the peak of his career. And so over nine, and plus they're gonna open the roof here in, in Arizona. It's beautiful weather, and that'll help run production, Gil. Yeah.
28:57
I- we're having beautiful weather here as well. It's only gonna last for a little while longer. So then you're going over at Arizona, open roof at Chase Field, the over on nine in that one.
29:07
Uh, Mark, what are your, what are your top three and bottom three teams right now? I hate to put you on the spot, but I'm curious by your numbers, what do you have right now?
29:16
Dodgers, Yankees, and I would say, ah, gosh, it's a, it's a t- close one between the Braves and the Mariners. Braves and the Mariners. Wow. All right, that corroborates what, what I'm thinking in, in the month of May.
29:29
It really does. And then bottom three? Bottom three would be number 29, Nationals. Number 30, still the Cardinals. They still haven't gotten a jump, which, uh, baseball hipsters are gonna be aghast, Gil.
29:42
[laughs] And number 28, the, the Colorado Rockies. So Cardinals worst, is what you're saying? Yeah, it's really hard to evaluate that offense 'cause they just don't have a lot of body of work.
29:53
Um, and their offense is, for me, the worst in baseball. So I g- you know, I...
29:59
And it just goes to show you how hard it is to handicap, 'cause the Dodgers went in there, uh, on Friday night and I thought, "Oh, that's the best play in the, in the world."
30:06
I, I thought that it was priced affordably and the- Right... the Cardinals got 'em. So, you know, even, even in the, the, the best team versus the worst team, uh, it's a difficult sport to handicap, Gil. It is.
30:15
Cardinals got 'em a couple times, if I'm not mistaken. Is that correct? Couple times? They did. Yeah. Yeah, they did. Yep. Mark, if it were easy, we'd all do it, right? So that's the puzzle.
30:24
[laughs] It's the puzzle and the life we've chosen. Escape to Victory outside of the US. Victory inside the United States starring the great Sly Stallone and Michael Caine. Thank you, Mark. Appreciate it.
30:36
Mark Bor- My pleasure, Gil... Mark Borchardt, everybody. Coming back on The Numbers Game. [upbeat rock music] The Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
30:55
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31:07
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31:25
Adam Burke does such a great job, uh, with the staff on those. Head to vsin.com/subscribe. Use promo code PRO. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Kelly and I were, uh, just debating off air
31:38
with the, uh, AL Cy Young Award short shot. That was fun. What would be the worst thing- [laughs]... that you could possibly mess that up with?
31:45
And the conclusion was, is that there's a bad side at the beginning of it- Yeah... there's a bad side at the end of it. Yes. So if you had a hiccup in the middle and you said both things, that would be the worst.
31:54
Could be problematic. Yeah. It's the kind of things we talk about. Could be problematic. Well. Also, I feel bad, by the way, about the, like Abe Brown, like he's been tweeting into the show for years.
32:02
I didn't know- Years and years... he was Owen's high school trainer. I didn't know that you guys had that connection. Well, well he didn't... No, he didn't reveal that. Oh, okay.
32:08
He didn't reveal that for a while- Okay... I don't believe. D- down in Jungle Land, correct me if I'm, correct me if I'm wrong about that. But he d- he did recently. Uh, we had- That's kind of blowing my mind today...
32:18
we had tweets, uh, @BeatingTheBook, "JasonH11, bartending in the Caribbean? More like making maple syrup at Chance Copper Pot's Vermont Pure Maple Syrup Factory."
32:25
[laughs] 3JacquesH3131, "Gil, as a WWE/WWF watcher in my early days, I remember Ted DiBiase, AKA the Million Dollar Man, always said, 'Everyone has a price.' Wes Reynolds will confirm." Yep.
32:40
LasVegas514yo, "Coming from someone who had been dealing with bones over 20 years," I, I imagine he means bone spurs rather than bones, 'cause we've all been dealing with bones- Let's see where he goes, Gil.
32:50
Let's see where he goes. [laughs] "Did you know bone spurs are not sharp, pointy, or spike-like? They are smooth, rounded bumps of regular bone. You are welcome." Thank you, Las Vegas. Wow.
32:59
Yeah, but it still, like deviates from the smooth part of the bone, right? Well, speak, speak for your bones. Deviates, if bones can deviate.
33:08
Bobby Gettys, "Little late here, but as the self-proclaimed bowling aficionado of ANG, I've also been, uh, very confused by the Go Bowling ads during the hockey playoffs.
33:17
I've bowled my whole life and I don't think I've met one hockey/bowling person." You should go to the South Point. They're all over the place down there. I was just thinking that, man.
33:25
[laughs] Uh, there's a couple thi- like there are a couple things I, I, like I don't know if I, if miss is the right word, but like, you know, when we talk about movies and you, you and I haven't been to the movie theaters in forev- Yeah...
33:35
like it would always be the people walking by with bowling balls. I'm like, "How'd you go bowling? Like it's right upstairs." It's gorgeous, too. It's gorgeous. Like state-of-the-art facility up there.
33:43
And South Point hack, the food is less pricey up there as well. That's true. And they got an arcade. Was it Sean McCollum who used to try to, like get the, the, uh, popcorn scam? Oh, no, it was not Sean.
33:53
[laughs] Oh, gosh. Wishnef- Someone's gonna have to help me out with that. Maybe Wyatt. Wishnef tried doing it, too. We, yes, we did have audio ops though that would get...
34:01
This is, this is worth telling 'cause they don't work here anymore. Yeah, yeah.
34:03
The, you know, as, as a lot, a lot of mo- out of, at a lot of movie theaters, if you buy like the big tub of popcorn, they'll let you go get free refills. Yeah.
34:11
So we would have audio op guys that would take the tub of popcorn, eat the popcorn, and save it for the next day, and then go back and get popcorn the next day. I miss the South Point. Miss the South Point.
34:24
Last one before we get to Paul, 'cause we got tons of these. M- Michael Burns, "Didn't have Kelly Bidley suggesting Gil become an amputee for money on today's show on my bingo card.
34:31
Keep, [laughs] keep keeping it real, fellas." Just saying, if someone's offering you, they're offering you a lot of money- Mm... I'm listening. We got more, but we gotta get to Paul Carr. Yeah, we do.
34:40
Paul Carr joins us now courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter @PaulCarr, C-A-R-R.
34:46
Paul joins us now to discuss not only the Champions League, but also a little World Cup if we can, uh, squeeze it out of him. How you doing, Paul? I have all my limbs, and I have no intention of selling any of them.
34:56
Okay. [laughs] Let's get that out of the way. Get in here. Get in here. Appreciate that. Yeah. Settle that. Let me, uh, let, let me, let me ask you this from the beginning here.
35:04
We, what, what's going on at the top of the Prem? Ugh. [laughs] What, what's going on? Here's what's going on. Uh, I played City to win the title before the season at plus 320, and they are now plus 320.
35:15
So we've played 35, 34, 35 games and gotten nowhere on that bet. But yeah, City, I mean, it's the same thing that's been happening all year.
35:22
Arsenal has left the door open for Man City, and they just refuse to walk through it. Uh, the defense, you know, just not quite up to snuff.
35:31
The attack's been fine, but the kind of the opposite problem of Arsenal has a great defense and their attack is kinda eh sometimes. So they just, City just does not have any interest in grabbing that trophy. Okay.
35:41
So but now I have to... Again, I'm not gonna quote somebody. I'm going to f- I'm going to do a hypothetical quote From the Arsenal fan who used to be the valet in my building- Yes...
35:52
until he crashed a couple cars- Yes... and is no longer working there.
35:55
But if I said this to him, if I went home today and I go, "Arsenal in the driver's seat," the first thing out of his mouth would be like, "There's no chance we're winning it. We're totally gonna blow it." Correct.
36:04
"There's no way." Do you buy into that? Uh, I mean, just from a narrative standpoint, yeah, that's... Like, Arsenal's just gonna make the collapse even more dramatic.
36:13
You know, they had this collapse a few weeks ago that made this a real race, and now it looks like they have it in hand, and yeah, the Arsenal fatalists are all gonna say they're gonna go to West Ham this weekend, a relegation-threatened team, and somehow lose that contest, and then City'll be right back in it.
36:27
So that's, that's definitely the Arsenal mindset right now. Okay. Man, sorry about your ticket. It looked like it was on the doorstep, but that's how it goes. They were up one- Yep... one-nil
36:37
over Everton yesterday at half- Yeah... at half, right, Paul? I think so. And then gave up three goals in the second half, and then, uh, uh, Paul and I were texting about this, and then teased us by- Right...
36:47
drawing the game. Right. I love it. Scored two in the last 10 minutes to get a point, so, you know, not as bad. They're still, you know, hanging around. I- But yeah, plus 320 for City title now.
36:57
I want y'all to win this bet. I'm a little amused at how outraged Kelly is getting about this soccer bet. I know. I can't believe this is not going our way.
37:04
We, we, we sweated this from the beginning and we caught all the way up. Like Paul said, we were right there. You have a, you have a tough act to follow here, Paul, namely that of Paul Carr, who gave us that over.
37:13
Oh, yeah, that guy. That over in the PSG game last week, which was done by halftime. And the red card the week before. And the red card the week before. Yeah. That was a Felika/Carr- Mm-hmm... collaboration.
37:25
Uh, we have Champions League today, we got Champions League tomorrow. Mm-hmm. What are you doing today? Arsenal and Atletico. All right. Yeah, second leg. First leg was 1-1, uh, in Madrid.
37:35
I mean, all these, these second legs are always a little tricky just from a, like, the numbers.
37:40
You can almost throw the numbers out the window and it's more kind of, all right, what does each team have to do and how are they gonna do it standpoint. Um, but I don't see much changing for Arsenal here.
37:47
I mean, they've played five knockout games in the Champions League this season. All five had fewer than three goals. All five were under two and a half non-penalty expected goals.
37:56
So that's, I really expect the same thing, under two and a half goals, minus 110.
38:01
Uh, I- regardless of how this goes, you know, whichever team scores first, assuming there is a goal in regulation, I think will just kind of park the bus and try to hang on. Uh, and it's what Arsenal's done all season.
38:12
Atletico, not quite as much as they used to, but I think that's what they would do here. So yeah, under two and a half, minus 110. It's a little square, but I think it makes sense.
38:22
And, and I, and I'll add, this is a 90-minute bet, so if it is 1-1 and goes to extra time, you're winning the bet.
38:30
I've noticed at least one book has started a lot more separate bets, including extra time or overtime, and that, those numbers look a lot different. So minus 110, under two and a half, that's your standard 90-minute bet.
38:42
All right, PSG and Bayern Munich, round number two, if you will, inside the semifinals. [laughs] Bayern Munich from? Das Bundesliga. You're going- Oh... you're going over again, over two and a half.
38:53
Over two and a half in the first half. In the first half. And, and here's why. Okay. Yeah, yeah. Here, here's why.
38:59
Um, the last you saw, if you watched the game, it was obviously breakneck speed is for the first hour or so, and it really kind of slowed down in the last 30 minutes.
39:07
PSG got a 5-2 lead, and they tried to just kind of sit back and defend, which they're not very good at because they never do it. And Bayern got a couple goals back and it ended 5-4.
39:16
So I do think at some point in this game on Wednesday, one or both teams will decide to slow down and t- whether it's sit on a lead or grind something out, but I don't think that's gonna be in the first half.
39:28
First half, both these teams are gonna do what they do, which is attack. I mean, Bayern has to attack. They're down a goal. PSG should be attacking or counterattacking because that's the way they play best.
39:38
So I think the first half, at least, will look a lot like the game, the first leg did. Uh, so I have over two and a half first half goals at plus 215. You obviously get a, a good price on that.
39:49
Again, should be open early, may get tight late when, you know, it's squeaky bum time, as the English like to say. But I think they're gonna have a lot of goals early. Squeaky bum time.
40:01
Um, real quick in your last, uh, 60 seconds here, Paul, 'cause I like your explanation there. World Cup, again, we're approaching. We're about- Yeah... we're what? We're one month away. Almost, almost a month away.
40:11
We're 37 days, I think. 37 days. Who's counting, though? Is there- Yeah... uh, we, we know what the f- we know, we know what the first matchups are. Mm-hmm.
40:19
Is there a game that you've already looked at, you're like, "I'm betting that"? I really have not looked at games. I have a lot of bets scattered over groups and such, and haven't dialed in.
40:29
Uh, rosters will start coming out in about two weeks, which will help, you know, just make sure, you know, somebody's not injured, someone's on the team. Um, I can throw you one other one I've, I've played. Uh- Please...
40:39
Panama to advance. Ooh. Plus 220, plus 225 range.
40:43
They're in a tough group with England, Croatia, and Ghana, but, and Panama has a coach named Thomas Christiansen, and they do very well against the US and Mexico for the last several years.
40:51
They're not gonna be intimidated. They're playing in their region, you know, in the US and Mexico, so they're more used to the climate that these European teams are gonna encounter.
41:01
So I think Panama can steal a win against at least one of these teams, and a win and a not terrible goal difference will probably get you through.
41:08
So y- I think they have better than a one in three shot of getting through, so Panama to advance. They're in Group L. Plus 220, plus 225 you should be able to find. Group L. Wow. It's a lot of groups.
41:19
It's a lot of groups. Too many, too many groups. It's ridiculous. A lot of groups. L. Jesus. Mm-hmm. Feels like the first time I've heard that. Fast, fast-forward like a half a century as well. Group Q. [laughs] Yeah.
41:29
Oh, yeah. They're just gonna have a 256 team tournament sometime. Yeah. Paul, appreciate it. Let's go under today. Let's go over first half tomorrow, the Champions League. Appreciate it. You bet. Let's do it.
41:40
Paul Carr, everybody, right here on The Numbers Game with Beasley, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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