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May 6, 2025
Best Of A Numbers Game | May 6, 2025
Best Of A Numbers Game | May 6, 2025
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44:33
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Transcript
0:02
The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Tuesday morning to you.
0:12
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel one fifty-eight. It's Gil Alexander alongside Kelly Biblet, everybody.
0:23
Who's alongside who? Are you alongside me or am I alongside you? It's a good question. I don't know. We're alongside. Or if I'm alongside you, nobody's alongside me then. Nobody's- Yeah.
0:30
Nobody, nobody dares- Nobody's over there. Yeah. [laughs]... be on your left side. Um, good morning to you all. What's up, party people? Good show today.
0:37
Mark Borchardt on baseball, Jake Hahn on the NHL playoffs, um, the second round of which began last night in Toronto with the Leafs, Leafs holding on for victory.
0:48
We'll talk to Jake about that and the games tonight and beyond.
0:51
Drew Dincic, who now joins us hour number two instead of hour number one, uh, on the show these days, he will talk NBA playoffs with us, of course, as well as anything he has in tennis as they begin in Rome now, the final clay court tournament before the French Open.
1:05
Uh, Drew will join us. Uh, what an NBA night. We will get to this momentarily. Paul Carr on the Champions League. Little midweek soccer action, uh, with Paul Carr coming up as well.
1:16
Um, we must begin, Kelly, with the National Basketball Association. And I just wanna say I am,
1:23
I am glad that at the end of the show yesterday, I stopped it down and said I was uncomfortable with the one-way favorite traffic that we got yesterday on the show. Mm-hmm.
1:33
Because, oh my God, the conference semifinals, three straight games now to begin, starting with Indiana two days ago, but then last night with both the Knicks and the Nuggets, all three dogs not only cover, but all three dogs win game ones outright.
1:50
Unbelievable. And we have to start.
1:51
Let's start with the second one last night, Kelly, where the Nuggets beat the Oklahoma, the Oklahoma City Thunder one twenty-one to one nineteen in a game where they hadn't had the lead prior to that final score, um, since it was twenty-four to twenty-two.
2:09
That was the previous time they had the lead in this game. Uh, if you missed it, if you were trapped under a heavy object, let me just give you the real brief cliff notes on this.
2:17
Uh, Denver led by eight in the first quarter. That was erased really quickly. OKC would lead after the first quarter by a point. Then the Thunder would lead by as many as fourteen during the second quarter.
2:29
Uh, they ended up with a ten-point margin of, uh, the, the ten-point margin going into the locker room, sixty to fifty did OKC. Then Denver, it was kind of this back and forth thing.
2:39
Denver got within seven in the third quarter. OKC would push it back up to fourteen, eighty-two to sixty-eight.
2:45
Then Denver would knock it down to five with three twenty-nine left in the period, and that would be the, the margin heading into the final quarter, ninety to eighty-five Thunder.
2:54
But then OKC would kick it back up to a double-digit lead. Remember, the spread here in this game got all the way up to ten and a half. It wasn't that twenty-four hours ago, but it did tick up to ten and a half.
3:05
So it was one thirteen to one oh two Oklahoma City with four thirty-one left in the game, and Kelly, by the line, that's when the shenanigans began. Yeah.
3:16
Denver goes on a twelve to two run to cut it to one fifteen to one fourteen. Jokic, the greatest player on Earth, hits a three from the top of the key to k- to, uh, cut it to one, one fifteen to one fourteen.
3:29
Then Denver gets the ball with a chance to take the lead with forty-six seconds left, but a missed Westbrook three try, then a Gordon miss. Caruso gets the board. SGA fouled with fourteen seconds left.
3:41
He hits both free throws. OKC up one seventeen to one fourteen. And here, ladies and gentlemen, is where the coaching malpractice began for Mark Dagnall.
3:52
Jokic, now keep in mind here, fourteen seconds left, OKC up one seventeen, one fourteen. OKC always employs the foul when up three strategy. I have read numerous articles this morning.
4:06
I watched Inside the NBA last night. It is amazing how many people do not get what the problem was. These articles say, "Oh, g- fouling up three backfired on him." No, it's not that simple. That's not what happened.
4:20
Charles Barkley still doesn't get it, what went down. I'll tell you who did get it in the end. Kenny Smith got it, and the play-by-play announcer, Ian Eagle, did a great job during the broadcast. He got this.
4:29
The problem was, was that OKC tactically messed up the thing by fouling too soon twice in a row. Yeah. So fourteen seconds left, OKC's up one seventeen to one fourteen.
4:42
Jokic is immediately fouled, and when I say immediately, I mean with twelve point nine seconds left. He's immediately fouled. He hits two free throws. It's one seventeen, one sixteen. So of course, um, [lip smacks]
4:56
uh, not of course, but SGA breaks free to the hoop immediately, one nineteen, one sixteen. Literally, like within a second, he breaks free to the hoop. So it's a three-point game again. So Denver, same situation.
5:08
They're down three. OKC wants to do the foul up three thing, but they foul Gordon in the back court with ten point seven seconds left. Literally barely any time is going off the clock here. Gordon hits both free throws.
5:22
It's one nineteen to one eighteen. Holmgren then fouled with nine point eight left because Denver's gotta get the ball back, and Holmgren misses not one, but two free throws.
5:34
Brown with the rebound, he pushes it up to Gordon from three. Good with two point eight seconds left. Desperation heave by OKC, nowhere near it. Nuggets steal it in, in Oklahoma City, one twenty-one, one nineteen.
5:49
And I just, again, it is amazing to me, Kelly, that you watch Inside the NBA after this, just to use Barkley as one example, and Barkley's whole thing is, "Well, I mean, if he makes both free throws, if Holmgren makes both free throws, it's not, this, I don't think there's anything wrong with that."
6:02
No If you keep fouling so quickly, and when I say so quickly, with one s- like one second or one and change, one second and change on consecutive possessions, what you are in essence doing is creating more,
6:19
more tests for yourself to have to- Sure... continue to hit two free throws. Right. Eventually, now I know Holmgren missed both, but eventually you're going to miss one. Holmgren happened to miss two.
6:31
Which, which equates and means more opportunity for the other team. More opp- but... And the game still has enough time left in it for them to advance the ball.
6:40
If you, if you just take off a few seconds each time, and let's say then he misses the, the two free throws, it's probably a desperation heave- Yeah... by Denver also. They just completely botched the way they did it.
6:53
And the fact that you read articles and articles this morning, "Oh, the, the fouling up three backfired on them." No, it's how they did it.
7:01
I, I think the, I think the thing for me, actually, that was one of the first times last night where I was very much... 'Cause you and I are, are, are pretty pro foul when you're up three- Absolutely... right?
7:11
Absolutely. Last night was the first time where I was like, hey, time, score, situation, right? We talk about this all the time. Time, score, situation, and when to employ that.
7:19
The first foul, while it was quick, I was okay with, Gil. I was like, okay, we're gonna go to foul up three. That was really quick, but yo- you know what? Jokic was very aware about what, what was about to go on.
7:29
He was gonna try to get a shot up anyways. All right, fine. But then Jokic is on the bench, and you foul Aaron Gordon in the back court like you're talking about. And I was very much like, okay, just let this play out.
7:41
Ah. Let this play out. You're up three. There's 10 seconds left on the clock. They gotta take it the length of the court. They got no timeouts. I was okay with letting it play out at that point.
7:50
I was shocked they went and fouled, fouled him that quickly. To your point, even if you wanted to still foul, you could have run four more seconds off the clock- Even if you wanted to still foul... letting them get up...
7:59
Oh, yeah. I, I was pr- I, at that point, I was for them letting it go. Well, I wasn't, but I, I understand your point. But I wasn't.
8:06
But I still believe you just, you let a few seconds run off, and then you foul like you always do. I'll tell you who else, and I was, I was ready to give him coach of the year if they won 70 games.
8:16
I'll tell you who took a while to get it after the game last night. It w- the initial questions to Mark Daigneault after that game. Uh, you know, "Would you have it back? Would you do it?" "Well," da, da, da.
8:25
And then finally after, like, a s- a paragraph, he finally conceded, "Maybe we did it too quickly." I was like, boy, that took a while for you to get there. Yeah. Yeah. Oh my God.
8:34
I, I mean, especially when that was involving veteran players too. I, I was, I was a little surprised. But I'll tell you [laughs] though, man, that was... I, look, it was...
8:43
I, I had against the spread v- you know, first half, full game. First half gets there. Full game, you s- you're watching it let it slip away, right?
8:50
And I think when we talk about both, both these losses from these teams, I think there is one thing they had in common that, that I want to bring up later. But the... You're, you're watching that slip away and you're...
8:59
It, it's going through my mind, Gil, all right, well, I'm gonna lose this ATS bet. But, like, there was, for the second time in nine days, Aaron Gordon just to the side of my head with a two-by-four- [laughs]...
9:10
out of nowhere, 'cause at no point did I think they were gonna lose that game- That-... until that happened. That and, of course, the dunk. Did he have his fingertips off it against the Clippers? Se- second time, man.
9:21
I was like, wow, that really just happened. I was sitting there stunned after the game. Jokic, the greatest player on Earth, 42, 22, and 6 in this game. Phew. So- Still got his fastball, you think? Yeah. 42, 22, and 6.
9:35
Gordon, the aforementioned Aaron Gordon, 22 and 14, including the game winner. Murray 21, Westbrook 18, SGA 33, 10 and 8 in defeat. The Nuggets committed 18 turnovers [laughs] in this game.
9:47
Um, well, to, to OKC's nine, but a tw- but a 63 to 43 rebounding advantage helped to offset that a bit. Ding, ding, ding. Um-
9:57
I mean, Gil, that's- I hate myself 'cause I mentioned on the show Nuggets, you know, five to one, that seemed w- that seemed too high. Did I pull the trigger on it? I did not. But you know what I did this morning? I did.
10:08
Nuggets up a game. I took them at, uh, plus, let me get the number right, plus 267. I took them up a game. By the way, I also, uh, took a adjusted series price in another series, which we'll get to after the break.
10:19
But I took the Nuggets plus 267. I just, you know, the cliche of Rudy Tomjanovich, never underestimate the heart of a champion. Look, I think this is gonna be a long series.
10:29
I don't think anybody's blowing anybody out here. But I just think the Nu- give me plus money on the Nuggets. And this is what we said yesterday, though. The advice that, that Carl gave was sound, right?
10:39
Hey, if you like the dogs, maybe you wait a game. But I kept saying after every time, I'm like, or the train leaves the station. Mm-hmm. Yeah. No, you, uh, you were dead right on that.
10:46
And the train has l- has kind of left the station on all three of these, but not exactly. Not exactly. And so I s- I still think... Like, I'm not gonna let it leave anymore, let's put it that way. Yeah.
10:57
So I grabbed Denver in this one, and then I'll, I'll mention the other one. Well, I'll, I'll say it right now. I grabbed Indiana. I grabbed Indiana. Indiana plays tonight.
11:05
I grabbed Indiana plus the points tonight against the Cavs in game two. I grabbed them for the series. Uh, the adjusted series price on the Pacers at plus 191, them up a game as well.
11:15
The Pacers, I mean, the, this is the deal with this series. Evan Mobley and Deandre Hunter both questionable for the Cavs tonight, Mobley with the ankle injury. Hunter dislocated his right thumb.
11:24
Both considered questionable. And Darius Garland still remains questionable, right? Risk of missing a fourth straight game with a toe injury.
11:30
And, and we learned yesterday that Atkinson, uh, considers questionable and doubtful the same thing. Yes. So I have no idea what this means tonight, Gil. How is this still nine tonight? I don't...
11:39
Uh, listen, I get how it's still 'cause Cleveland's the number one seed, but, uh, this is, again, if you pull yourself away from regular season too close to the sun, how's this nine?
11:49
Coming back, the Knicks and the Celtics next. [upbeat rock music] A numbers game.
12:04
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12:15
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12:29
We get tweets. And beating the book, always appreciate it. This is from, uh, oh, Matthew Mayberry checking in again. He goes, "I have the A's first to 10 wins in May at 80 to 1, and the Tigers 12 to 1 for May.
12:41
I literally cannot find one site that tracks monthly standings. It's driving me nuts, so thank you for the updates." Yeah, uh, StatMuse, uh, RotoWire, those are the two.
12:52
Although they both- Uh, who- They both require, I believe, a little finagling to get there. Oh, okay. So it's not super simple.
12:59
Um, but again, we'll, we'll have them here on a, on a numbers game, if not daily, we'll have them, uh, you know, at least weekly. That's for sure.
13:05
And then we'll get closer to daily as the, uh, as the month nears its end.
13:09
Jim Campbell: "With the Celtics up 20, and New York having cat bridges and heart and foul trouble, why was their strategy not to drive the ball to the hoop? I'm saying, man.
13:18
They will get an uncontested shot or they get the New York starters to foul out. Seems to make more sense than shucking up threes." Absolutely.
13:24
And that's always, like, it's, like, it's the lasting criticism of, of, of Tatum and Brown, right? It's you gotta be able, that's gotta be part of the game. You gotta be able to drive it to the rim, create contact. Yeah.
13:34
I, I, I mean, just again, par is good enough to win. Stop launching three after three and clink, clink, clink. Brutal. Missoula deserves, deserves a lot of criticism, and some people don't seem to wanna give it to him.
13:46
Uh, pr- I'm here to give it to him... the problem is I don't, I don't really expect anything to change because what will they- Yeah, what are they gonna do? Hey, they won a championship last year. What are they gonna do?
13:53
[laughs] And what are they gonna do? That's all they know how to play. No, I'm saying that's all they know how to play. Yeah.
13:57
Mike Rouse: "Can we get Mark's insight," oh, Mark Borchardt, "into the prison cell windows he has in the background?" Oh, I missed that. Did he have prison cell windows in the background, Borchardt? I missed that.
14:05
Oh, [laughs] I don't know. I didn't catch that either. The numbers, guys. Gilly: "Where's them tennis picks?" Uh, I didn't have any. I thought I was, but they, they played about, you know, 10 to 15 matches.
14:13
It was like 10 matches, non-qualis today in, uh, in Rome, and I didn't like any of them from a betting perspective.
14:18
So it's a full bore schedule of tennis beginning tomorrow, which means I will have tennis picks in the overnight tonight.
14:26
Jack Ollaquire: "Gil, I'm with you on the Padres for May, but definitely passing on the hometown White Sox. Good luck to Mark Borchardt with the White Sox tonight. Don't think I can go there either."
14:35
Eric Biggio from, uh, Will Hill Caesars, um, rooting hard for Mark's Rockies and White Sox today from his book's perspective. [laughs] Those teams are always on our needs behind the counter.
14:47
Just add the Marlins next time, and we can have a trash team three-teamer. [laughs] That's great. Uh, you know what Eric, uh, told, uh, told us yesterday, me and Fezzik?
14:56
He told us that the Padres May most wins, and I did not bet at William Hill Caesars, I bet at Circa.
15:04
But he said at William Hill Caesars, because of everybody who do trail- who, uh, tailed on that bet, they are in for six figures if the Padres win most May, wins. Wow, okay. All right. They're stuck for six figures.
15:17
So how about that? Sorry, Caesars. Numbers game, just following suit. Let's go. Let's get it done. Not that we, you know, wish the worst on you, Eric, but just think that's an interesting stat. Let's talk some hockey.
15:29
Jake Hahn joins us now, everybody. You can follow him on Twitter at JHahn4. That's the number four, J-H-A-H-N-4, co-host of The Point and the Fantasy Hockey Show on SiriusXM NHL. How you doing, Jake? Doing great, guys.
15:42
I should have worn my Padres hat for the o- occasion. I, sometimes I do. I, I've been heavy on the Padres this year. I was on them last night, too.
15:49
Great comeback against the New York Yankees, which, uh, as a Jays fan, I appreciate as well, even though I realistically know the Jays aren't gonna catch the Yankees at any point.
15:57
I still love seeing the Yankees lose in that, uh, rain-soaked game last night, guys. So, uh, loving all the baseball. The, the basketball last night as well. I know I'm here to talk, talk some hockey.
16:06
Uh, but second round I get a little bit more time to maybe get into some of these other sports, right? The, the winds down a little bit in hockey, so loved those two NBA games last night as well.
16:14
Well, hockey finally let basketball have one night where they took the shine with the- Yeah... with the most incredible games. Right. Uh, the, the second round of the NHL playoffs did begin yesterday.
16:23
The Leafs hold on, and I do mean hold on, against the Florida Panthers. They win it five to four. Uh, the Toronto netminder, Anthony Stolarz, left the game after an elbow to the head from Florida's Sam Bennett.
16:35
That was not called, by the way. He was replaced by Joseph Woll. Uh, uncalled elbow to the head at 7:20 of the second period that occurred toward the end of a Florida power play.
16:44
Toronto was up three to one at the time on two goals by William Nylander and one by, uh, Morgan Rielly. By the way, Toronto scored 33 seconds in. Nylander scored 33 seconds into this game.
16:54
Um, it ended up being four to one Toronto. Woll was in the game now in, uh, in net, and they held on five to four. Matthew, uh, Matthew Knies with a score with six minutes left for Toronto, kept Florida at bay.
17:07
My question to you, Jake, is Toronto's got the series lead. Felik actually texted this while this was going on last night. And I, I looked at Woll's stats.
17:15
Woll's stats in goal are not really that bad, but man, did he look in over his head last night, didn't he? Really tough spot for him to come in in that game, uh, Gil.
17:25
And I, I thought if you really break it down, I mean, the numbers, okay, three goals on 20 shots, not the greatest. Uh, but I thought Florida played their best hockey of that game when Woll was in net.
17:34
Because the Leafs had the big lead, t- teams tend to sit back, especially when you get up to a three-goal lead, the way that the Leafs had. So you go into a bit of a defensive shell.
17:42
And I thought for the first 40 minutes of that game, shockingly, Florida was very sleepy. Not to take anything away from what the Leafs were doing well, they kinda jumped them early.
17:50
But I just thought, man, this doesn't look like the Panthers team that I'm used to, to watching, that I just watched beat Tampa Bay in five games. And they woke up in the third period. They were all over the Maple Leafs.
18:00
And like I said, the Leafs kind of went into that defensive shell that teams tend to do with a big lead. So I thought Woll had to face the better version of the Panthers than Stolarz did before he went down.
18:10
Um, and I think the Leafs trust Joe Woll to win games. He's played playoff games- Yeah... for them in the past.
18:14
There was a moment in this season, Gil, where I thought Joe Woll was gonna be the, the starter game one of the postseason, and then Stolarz was just so good down the stretch, it really gave them no choice but to go with Anthony Stolarz.
18:24
So being able to have a, you know, a full warm-up and knowing that you're gonna start, I would totally trust Joe Woll to win games for the Maple Leafs.
18:31
But ultimately, they're waiting and, and praying that Anthony Stolarz is healthy because he has just been so good for them the last few months.
18:37
Yeah, ended up staying on the ice, then he vomited, you know, and then, so he had to leave the game. Crazy. So, so let's go through these one by one.
18:43
So the adjusted series price on the Panther- Panthers Maple Leafs with the Leafs up one to nothing. The Leafs now a slight favorite, minus 125, the Panthers plus 105. Is there a bet here?
18:54
I think I would need a little bit more to get behind the Panthers. The p- plus 105 though, because I, I've seen some different numbers floating around there.
19:01
Anything plus money with the Panthers, I think I get a little bit more interested. I saw some, you know, minus 110s on both sides. So that plus 105 number you guys are showing right there is, is a pretty nice price.
19:11
On a Florida Panthers team, we know their pedigree. We know that they can certainly get back in this series. And I don't think home road matters as much in this one.
19:18
Gil, uh, you know, you go back to the series these two teams played a couple of years ago, I think Florida had their most success in Toronto, and Toronto actually had their most success in Florida.
19:27
So compared to maybe some other series that we're gonna look at, I don't think home road matters as much here.
19:32
Uh, I'm not backing the Florida Z- Florida Panthers at plus 105, but I certainly think they're gonna have their moments in this series. All right, two game ones tonight in the NHL, Caps-Hurricanes.
19:42
Uh, Hurricanes without home ice, a minus 160 favorite in the series. Caps plus 140 on the comeback, we're in Washington tonight for game one.
19:51
Golden Knights and Oilers, this is one of these rare sort of betting things where, um, the Oilers are the minus 115 series favorites, but the Knights will be a tick of a favorite in four of these games if it extended to seven.
20:05
They've got the home ice, but if you do the whole math of the aggregate, the Oilers are the slight series favorite.
20:11
Do you have a play in either of the series, uh, for either of those two s- uh, series prices for either of those two series or in game ones?
20:19
I, I do, and I don't think I've ever seen anything like this where we have four second round series, Gil, and at least starting, now the Leafs are the favorites after the win- Yes...
20:26
last night, but before the series started, all four teams with home ice advantage- That's right... are the underdogs in their series. It sh- it was just crazy. And honestly, some of them don't make a ton of sense to me.
20:35
I, I believe Vegas should be favored. Now, in some places they are. It's, you know, kind of hovering around that pick 'em range. You guys are showing minus 105 there.
20:42
I think that's a really nice price on Vegas for the series. Edmonton showed so many flaws in that first round against the LA Kings. I thought LA just kind of choked it away, for lack of a better term.
20:51
Games three and four, they should have won both of those. They let Edmonton off the mat, and you can't give a dangerous team like the Oilers a second life. I don't think Vegas is gonna do that.
20:59
They're more defensively sound. I think they have the better goaltender in Aiden Hill. So I like Vegas, and I really like wa- that price for the Washington Capitals as well.
21:06
This is gonna be your ultimate, you know, analytics versus eye test community type series where the analytics point to, to Carolina.
21:14
Uh, but Carolina, each playoffs, they tend to get into this funk where they, they have sh- uh, they struggle finishing on chances. They're fine generating those chances.
21:22
I think that's what you could see throughout courses of this series, and I just think that's a, that's a great number on a Capitals team that's, to me, been way more consistent than Carolina all season long.
21:31
Caps on the series at plus 140. Anything on the game ones tonight on these specific games or no? I, I am gonna play the Capitals. I'm seeing them hovering between plus 115.
21:41
Maybe you could shop and find a plus 120 out there. I, I think that's a really good price on the Capitals in game one for, uh...
21:48
I, again, I, this is just a, a team I think I'm gonna be playing all series if they're gonna give these prices out. Obviously they're not gonna sweep Carolina. I doubt they will, but I like this, this play for game one.
21:57
Lean towards the over in the late game, guys, but we have seen some movement. I, I was over six about minus 120 last night. Now it's flown up to over six and a half at about minus 115 in that range.
22:07
So people have the same idea. [laughs] They're betting goals in Vegas-Edmonton, which I, I, uh, I can't fault them for doing. I think that's probably gonna be your highest scoring series of the, of the second round.
22:16
Yeah, six and a half is the total in that game, game one tonight at, uh, T-Mobile Arena.
22:20
By the way, real quick, 10 seconds or less, tomorrow night Dallas and Winnipeg, uh, start, with Dallas as a minus 160 series favorite. Do you have a series play there? I, I like the Jets at that price, guys.
22:30
I think a lot of people are gonna be loving on Dallas after beating Colorado, but Winnipeg, the whiteout, home ice advantage I think matters the most in this series of all four that we just talked about.
22:38
Winnipeg plus 135, the President's Trophy winners. Thank you, Jake. Appreciate it, man. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
22:52
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23:02
Sign up today at edgeboost.bet with promo code ANG. ANG as in A Numbers Game. Deposit $25, and Edge Boost will match the deposit. That's edgeboost.bet. Let's go to Alexander. We get tweets at Betty the Book. Slashed.
23:16
[laughs] JC at JC562076 says, "Go Dubs, that is all." I'm with you, JC. Go Dubs. Most beautiful thing in basketball. It was w- it was well said by, by Drew. We brought it up yesterday.
23:29
I j- the price just a little off for me. If anything, I'd be on the Warriors, too. Warriors trying to make it a full set of four of underdogs that went outright in game ones of the conference semifinals.
23:38
God, and they're, they're, they're the one that we would have said had- Yeah... the best chance, too, right? [laughs] Jamie Leyva, slashing weight and prices.
23:45
Kelly Bidlin, he says, "Excellent Earnest Johnson impersonation, Gil. Looking good, gentlemen. Have a fantastic day." Thank you, Jamie. The Earnest Johnson. I always loved that.
23:53
[laughs] That was the best part of Prime Time Action [laughs] Oh, guessing lines, you know, or Prime Time Action? Yeah. Just random Earnest Johnson. Remember when we f- we, we discovered him?
24:01
And it was like, "Who's this guy? Who's this running back?" And then boom. I always throw in, "From our Atlanta studios."
24:07
Uh, Chance Copperpot, "I can't spell podiatrist, but I know when the Nuggets are down in the fourth quarter and I take a live flyer at 13 to 1 with 50 bucks, I'm winning 650. #cantspell," he says. Nice.
24:17
Well, actually, you spelled podiatrist right. Ladies and gentlemen, the last night on Inside the NBA, Paul Carr standing by for Champions League picks.
24:23
So, um- I'm also nervous now 'cause he's a regional spelling bee champion apparently. Paul Carr is? Yeah. Regional spelling- I might have just made that up, but Let's, let's bring Paul in.
24:30
Paul Carr, ladies and gentlemen, from Topeka, Kansas. Uh, True Media Networks is where he does his thing on a daily basis, the Expected Value podcast, and of course, The Ringer's soccer betting show.
24:39
Joins us now, @PaulCarr, by the way, on Twitter, C-A-R-R, courtesy of the Progressive guest line. Paul, were you a regional spelling bee champion? Is that true? Uh, fourth place regional- Fourth... as far as I got.
24:49
Fourth place regional. Kelly, come on. Fourth place. You get a trophy for that? Topped out right there. By the- I did not You should- Didn't even get a ribbon. Had to get third for a ribbon.
24:57
You should have just said second place. We would not have known the difference. [laughs] Uh, so last- That's true...
25:02
last night on Inside the NBA after Barkley was just embarrassing about the, the Dagnal end of game coaching All Chet had to do was make the two free throws, we'd have been fine Um, they did a spelling bee and they gave three words, podiatrist, plethora, and peripheral.
25:18
And Shaq went O for three even though he tried to, uh, to cheat off of Ernie's page, but Ernie knew it was happening, so he wrote, he wrote them incorrectly, misspelled them and was- I believe Shaq does that often. Yeah.
25:28
They even caught him, like, looking over. Uh, Charles went one for two, and Kenny wanted to go two for three. He went two and one. So Kelly now, uh, you get it, and, yeah, the first word was podiatrist.
25:39
Kelly spelt it P-E-D-I-A-T- Uh-uh... R-I-S-T. P-O? P-O-D. Ugh, man. Oh my God. Sorry, Florida State University. FSU. How'd I do on the other two? Plethora, plethora I got right. You were correct on the others.
25:55
Plethora, P-L-E-T-H-O-R-A, and peripheral, which was the hardest one, P-E-R-I-P-H-E-R-A-L. Way to go. Two for three. There you go. You and Kenny- There you go, Kelly... you and Kenny Smith would have a, a word off.
26:07
I mean, I'm an English major who worked at a newspaper. It's a little concerning I can't spell podiatrist. [laughs] It's more than a little concerning. [laughs] It's a lot concerning. Uh, Paul, how you doing, man?
26:16
Uh, let, let- Hi... before, before we get to [laughs]... Hi. Before we get to your, uh, Champions League plays, uh, for today and explain the second leg and all that, uh, let's go back to some stuff you had.
26:25
You had s- you had, uh, a goal scorer at plus 250 and it took four minutes to cash, right? The other day. It was very nice.
26:32
Usmane Dembele for PSG, form- fourth-minute goal through traffic and rest easy the rest of the game. That's, uh, that's about as easy as it gets. And Barcelona inter Milan, three to three.
26:41
Was that the final score in that game? That was a classic, huh? It was. It was a wild one.
26:45
I had Barcelona minus a goal and a half, and they were down two-nil, and I honestly didn't feel terrible about it given that, uh, yeah, they tied it up. Inter took the lead.
26:55
Barcelona tied it up again with about 25 minutes left, I think. Ugh. So it was, it was still very much in play. Yeah. But they, they had a couple chances they didn't finish.
27:02
And, yeah, I don't think either team's really happy with a three-three result going back to Milan. That's interesting. And we'll, we'll vets a portent of things to come here as Paul gives his pick.
27:10
So, so explain now, this is the second leg of the semifinals. And for the uninitiated, explain, if you would, why this becomes a little bit, uh, multilayered. Yep. Yep.
27:21
Two legs, aggregate scored, which is a fancy way of saying total score across the two legs is what gets you through. So the thing to be wary of from a betting standpoint, as I always say, everyone's made this mistake.
27:33
I've made this mistake. What... 99% of your bets here are for regulation, so for the 90 minutes and the injury time at the things end.
27:41
So if you bet, say, Barcelona to win the game, if it's tied after 90 minutes and they win in extra time, your bet probably won't cash.
27:50
Uh, there are separate markets for to advance or to qualify, which are different things. That's just which team goes to the next round regardless of its regulation, extra time, penalty kicks.
28:00
So as always, just be wary of what you're betting and know what you're betting, really, from a rooting interest standpoint. Also, thank you for using wary correctly, Kelly.
28:07
Wary, cautious of, as opposed to weary, where people say, "Be weary of." Yes. Be tired of. Sure, yes. Yeah. Yeah. No worry. Okay. English major, Kelly Bindner, everybody. W-A-R-Y. That's right. [laughs] He was not sure.
28:19
[laughs] He was not sure. He was not sure. Never. Uh, okay. So b- let's keep that in mind. Let's go to your picks. So, um, the first pick here from you then, this is going to be which...
28:30
Let's go to Barcelona inter Milan now. Yep. So what are the implications here as we head into this game? Yeah. So I, I am taking a 90-minute bet of Barcelona to win this game. I played this at 125.
28:43
It has shifted the other way. It's plus 150 now a lot of places- Hmm... because there's some injury news that has come out. Uh, Lautaro Martínez, Inter's striker, looks like he's going to play.
28:53
That was a little more doubtful yesterday. Uh, and Barcelona's fullbacks may both be out of this game. Personally, I don't think that...
29:00
I mean, it matters obviously, but I don't think it's a big deal from a handicapping standpoint because the Barcelona defense was pretty suspect anyway, and Inter's attack was decent against that.
29:10
So it's something, don't get me wrong. But really this is about Barcelona's attack, which is the best in the world. I don't think the Inter defense can hold up for 90 minutes.
29:18
Uh, it wasn't really able to last game, gave up three goals obviously. They did okay. You know, Barcelona didn't have tons of great opportunities, but they had a lot of them. They had 19 shots.
29:27
And even though a lot of them weren't great, when you give good players, like Barcelona has, an attack, 19 shots, uh, you know, they're likely to, to break through one way or the other.
29:34
Uh, Barcelona may have Robert Lewandowski back for this game, so I don't think he will start, but he's a guy they could throw on in the last 20 minutes when they're trying to get a win in regulation.
29:43
So I like Barcelona to win this one in regulation. Again, I played it at plus 125, but you should be able to get plus 150-ish right now. So this was the three to three match in the, in the first leg. Yeah.
29:53
Now Paul's on Barcelona plus 125. And it's not that the market has scoffed at you, it's that there's injuries. That's why it's moved. I think so. Yeah. Okay.
30:00
'Cause I'm, I had, had that play last night, and the injury news came out this morning, uh, in Europe. So I think that's it. 'Cause Martínez likely wasn't going to play.
30:08
The fullbacks were, I don't think their injury situation was quite a, I think it was more severe than expected. So yeah, I think that's what made the numbers change this morning. All right.
30:17
I'm ta- I'm tailing you again on this one, Paul. This is like, this is like- All right... an anger bet against Inter Milan. [laughs] Kelly, if you'd watched that game last week, like- Spite bet...
30:24
i- it's the most inc- It's like when we, we talk about the three-point, uh, differentials, right? Like, when you get- Yeah... like, three ridiculous, incredible goals that, like, you could never- Right... recreate.
30:33
I, yeah, I'm gonna, I'll be right, I'll be right back on Barcelona. Yeah. It's a, it's another good point. Like, everything went right for Inter in that game, and all they got was a draw.
30:41
You know, they got a early goal on a counterattack with a great finish, you know, tough to replicate. They scored twice on set pieces.
30:47
And while those are also Barcelona's defensive weaknesses, set pieces and transition, they're just tough things that you're gonna be able to count on. So, you know, Barcelona puts up a couple here, two, maybe three.
30:57
I'm not sure Inter can get two, maybe three goals themselves. Spite bets always work out, Kelly. You should be fine. Oh, 100%. Yeah. Once they go wrong. Yep. Yeah. You should be good. Yeah. Uh, PSG- Yeah... Arsenal.
31:06
First, uh, leg, if I'm not mistaken, PSG won one-nil, yes, in London? Correct. All right. Correct. Yes. So how are we doing this one? So I'm going under in this one, under two and a half plus 125.
31:18
Uh, this was, you know, it was kind of a tight, cagey, your stereotypical first leg. I'm not sure the second leg will be much different because Arsenal needs to score, obviously. They're down a goal.
31:28
Arsenal hasn't been very good at scoring all season, and to have Bukayo Saka back and Odegaard back in the midfield's a little bit better, but PSG defended them fairly well, didn't give up a ton of opportunities.
31:38
I mean, Arsenal had one shot in the first half hour or so before they kind of got alive, but PSG really just clogged the middle well, and Arsenal wasn't able to generate a lot.
31:46
And I'm not sure this game will be a lot different. Uh, they, they might scratch out a goal. You know, it could've been one-nil Arsenal in that first leg without too much trouble.
31:53
But either way, you know, one-nil either way obviously gets us home, a couple of goals. Uh, so this was, this is another one where it could go to extra time.
32:01
If Arsenal wins one-nil and goes to extra time, you're winning your bet regardless as if, of if, uh, you know, teams sank two, three goals in extra time. So under two and a half plus 125.
32:10
Uh, if you wanna get really crazy, go under one and a half at, like, plus 350. But under two and a half, 125 my play. And these are both today, Paul? Uh, the Arsenal-PSG game is tomorrow. Arsenal-PSG tomorrow, right.
32:22
So Barcelona-Inter Milan today. Yeah, one game at a time for the semis. What's that? I'm sorry, say again. One game at a time for the semis. That's right. So let us watch them both.
32:28
One game tonight, uh, today Barcelona-Inter Milan, PSG-Arsenal tomorrow. Uh, are you following the NHL or the NBA playoffs at all, Paul? Do you follow that at all? Uh, very casually.
32:36
I st- I don't think I'd watched an NB Ga- NBA game all season until the playoffs. But yeah, now it's kind of throw it on to see what happened.
32:43
And, uh, yeah, so last night I had, I left, stopped watching the Celtics game when they were up, like, what? 20 in the third quarter. Yeah.
32:50
And I came back with, like, a minute left and was very confused about what was going on. [laughs] I thought the score bug was messed up, that kind of thing.
32:56
But, uh- The Celtics were very confused about what was going on as well. Yeah. They just kept heaving balls from behind the arc. And there has been score bug issues. Yeah. So, yeah. Yeah. Fair question.
33:04
May- maybe, uh, shoot the ball closer to the basket. I don't know. [laughs] That'd be, it's very, very- What do I know? [laughs]... intricate advice.
33:11
Um, I'm just saying, like, anybody, uh, anybody who doesn't like sports, like, imagine not liking sports. The drama of the NBA playoffs and the NHL playoffs- Yeah... has, has just been incredible.
33:21
Um, I don't, I don't know. I don't trust a, I don't trust a, a guy who doesn't like sports or music. Like, what have you, what have you been doing with your life? Yeah.
33:28
I don't watch a lot of regular season of either, but I show up for the playoffs 'cause that's when it gets fun. That is acceptable. Barcelona plus 146, I'm in. He's in. Let's go. Let's go. Spike bet. Thank you, Paul.
33:39
Appreciate it. We'll come back. We'll recap everything next. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:56
Get the GBank Visa Signature card today because GBank is the official bank of VSiN. With all of our best bets recapped, Kelly, shall we do it? Let's do it. Here we go. Look at you firing today, man.
34:06
Uh, this is probably my most, um- Def-... firing of a non-tennis nature on any given day I, I was gonna say outside of football season, but yeah, good point. Yeah, maybe then. Uh, Padres again tonight.
34:18
Uh, money line for the full game and the first five money line against the Yankees, minus 105 on the full game, minus 119. Michael King on the hill for the Fathers as the, uh, Padres look to go 5-0 in the month of May.
34:33
If they win this, they are already ahead of my projection, and I got them winning the month. Nice. So- There you go... uh, so there. So Padres first five and full game.
34:41
Mariners-Athletics, I did this yesterday too, over first five and full game. Uh, once again, the, uh, the pitching matchup in that one, Emerson Hancock. Who could forget Emerson Hancock?
34:52
What's your favorite Emerson Hancock outing, Kelly? Oh, man. Yeah. Uh, a couple weeks ago. Sure. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, versus Jeffrey Springs.
34:58
They're both fly ball pitchers, and I don't even know, I don't know if you know this.
35:01
Sactown, that ballpark with the, uh, fake Machu Picchu out there in the outfield and the fake bridge-looking thing, um, that is Sutter Health ballpark, and that is a, it is just an absolute fly ball pitcher's nightmare.
35:15
And so we're going over again, five and a half, first five, over nine and a half for the full game.
35:19
And then in basketball, in the National Basketball Association, I'm taking the Pacers plus the points tonight against the Cavs, who again, is Darius Garland playing? Nobody knows. Is Evan Mobley playing? Nobody knows.
35:30
Is DeAndre Hunter playing? Nobody knows. They're all questionable. Did get a, uh, note come down about 10 minutes ago. Mobley, Garland, Hunter, all not seen at shoot around. Oh, boy. [laughs] Pacers plus nine.
35:43
And that number has adjusted. We're down to eight. Already one point- Yeah...
35:47
less than when we began this show, and I'm on the Pacers plus 191 on the series price, the adjusted series price, up one to nothing in that series.
35:53
I also did take the Nuggets up one-nothing in that series against the Thunder at plus 267. Did not take the Knicks because I just think Tibbs is just there. The two guys log too many minutes, man. Yeah. Too many minutes.
36:07
And they'll, like, I mean, the Celtics had to screw up last night. The Knicks will blow a game too. Like, we, we know that. A game as well. I'm not gonna say necessarily game two, but a game as well.
36:16
Uh, I, I'm in on, I'm backing on the Celtics. Look, it is the numbers game that they like to play. Put up a bunch of threes.
36:21
Um, you're gonna have some nights like you did last night where, uh, well, I guess, I guess you set NBA records missing as many as you did. [laughs] 45 missed threes. It's incredible, man. [laughs] 15 of 60.
36:32
It's incredible. You, you hope when you see a performance like that, though, they tr- they, they learn at least a little bit, Gil. I don't know that they will, but anyways, nine and a half, wanted to get in on that.
36:41
I knew it would run out a little here a little bit. We're at 10 and a half now.
36:44
Paul Carr's best bets, by the way, that you just heard, Barcelona, Barcelona, if you pronounce it in Castilian, Barcelona win plus 125 at Inter Milan.
36:52
You can get it at plus 150, he said, because some injuries have altered this line.
36:55
And then the PSG-Arsenal game tomorrow in the Champions League semifinals second leg, under two and a half goals, PSG and Arsenal, at, uh, plus 125, under two and a half goals.
37:06
GBank, the official bank of VSiN- Oh, we got a couple more. Oh, we do. Oh, I'm sorry. Mark Borchardt, we did him out of order. Yeah. That's, wow, my bad. Mark Borchardt, I'm a robot. I just do it chronologically.
37:14
[laughs] Mark Borchardt, best bets, Phillies-Braves money line parlay, plus 171 his parlay of the day. And then [clears throat]
37:22
you are not required to watch these, but Mark Borchardt has gone run line, plus one and a half runs on both the White Sox and the Rockies today. Oh, boy That is living.
37:33
Uh, and then finally from- We got Dinsick and Jake Haab... Dinsick and Jake Haab.
37:37
Drew Dinsick, he's on Karolína Muchová 18 to one to win the, uh, WTA side of things in Rome, the final tournament before the French Open at Roland Garros. You know they officially call it Roland Garros now.
37:50
It's not the French Open. We call it the French Open. Really? Yeah, it's ridiculous. Actually, you know what? I think I saw something like that the other day and I was confused.
37:56
I think Charles might have mentioned it on Inside the NBA. And Timberwolves, uh, Drew is laying the points. Drew is unabated in terms of his love for all the favorites, plus on the series prices as well.
38:06
He's on the T-Wolves tonight minus the six and a half against the Dubs show of Steph Curry, Draymond, and company. Jake Haab, best bets. Caps tonight, game one, Caps plus 120. Let's go. Rock the Red, baby, in DC.
38:21
Oilers-Golden Knights over six and a half here at T-Mobile. Wow.
38:26
I mean, we were talking with Wes yesterday about how you can't bet these overs in game sevens, but man, six and a half on this game, and everybody expects it to go over tonight here between the Oilers and the, and the Knights.
38:35
You know, we talked, we talked to Jake about this during the regular season.
38:38
Man, I would still feel this way when I see some of these, uh, s- some of these final scores of just like, if I was betting it over, I'd be sprinkling some alts, too.
38:45
Like, how, I feel like how often do we see nine, nine goal games, 10 goal games, 11 goal games is wild. Ho- the, the, [clears throat] the Stanley Cup playoffs has been unbelievable.
38:56
Uh, that was the, I mean, that was the first great night of the NBA. Not the first great night, but the really best night so far. But hockey's just left and right, these games have been incredible.
39:04
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39:34
Uh, Stormy and JBT coming up at the top of the hour with money moves. I'm sure JBT will have a lot to say about the NBA playoffs. Stormy doing double duty. She's doing the Knights game tonight as well.
39:42
Oh, she back on that? Oh, yeah. Stormy, Stormy is big time, man. I, I, s- I screwed up the other day when I saw, I saw her on, uh, doing the Knights game. I was like, "Oh, that's cool.
39:51
She's right down the road doing it." I didn't realize it was in Minnesota. [laughs] In Minnesota. Jetta doing.
39:55
Um, so I'm curious what JBT's gonna have to say about these games, but, uh, we started the show, in case you missed it. Um, I just, I cannot believe what we witnessed at the end of that Thunder game last night.
40:05
Y- you mentioned something interesting, uh, off air, which is, you know, all these, the national shows like, like ESPN, leading with the Knicks and the Celtics as, like, the bigger story.
40:14
I'm like, "Well, it's such an East Coast bias." Like, yeah, that was amazing, too. Don't get me wrong. The Knicks winning game one against the Celtics, uh, erasing the 20-point deficit was amazing.
40:22
But the malpractice at the end of the Thunder game, where again, the problem was not that they fouled up three, which so many articles a- and so many people are saying this morning. That's not the problem.
40:34
The problem is how they did it. And once again, uh, Jokic immediately fouled with the Thunder up three. Jokic immediately. So, so they go up three on two SGA free throws with 14 seconds left. Jokic fouled with 12.9 left.
40:48
He hits two free throws. SGA, uh, then breaks free to the hoop there, back up three. Then Gordon fouled with 10.7 left. That's not how you do it.
40:57
Once again, he hits both free throws, then Holmgren in- inevitably misses not just one, but two. Gordon three, good. Ballgame. Desperation no good. Nuggets steal it, um, after being down by, what was it?
41:10
Uh, 113-102 with 4:31 left. Geez. Then a 12 to two run cut it to 115-114, and that's when we had those late game shenanigans. But again, it's not that they fouled up three, it's how they did it.
41:21
They did not let enough time elapse, and as a result, what you're doing is creating too many more opportunities for yourself to miss a free throw.
41:32
Because as the longer the game goes, right, you have to extend it three or four seconds on each of those. And then even if you do miss, Denver's got a desperation heave to try to do something about it.
41:41
But the fact that they just, no time elapsed. I mean, a couple seconds elapsed. So it allowed for, hey, the more free throws you shoot, eventually you're gonna miss one. Holmgren happened to miss two.
41:50
And it allowed Denver to matriculate the ball down the court and get that three from Gordon with. Just an unbelievable occurrence here. I, I'm stunned. I'm still, I'm still stunned.
42:00
Tell you, I, I know it's been this long after the game. I'm still in shock. You, you can't go to sleep afterwards, as you were saying. No, you can't. I, th- this is my problem every time the NBA playoffs roll around.
42:07
You get, you get great finishes like that, you're so full of adrenaline after the game, and then before you know it, you're like, "Oh, great, I gotta be up in, like, four hours. Let me, uh, try to get some sleep here."
42:15
Um, this is not a, this is not a pleasant subject, and I don't mean to put you on the spot, but, like, who, you mentioned Aaron Gordon earlier.
42:22
What's been, is it the Nuggets that are your big, th- they're the ones that are killing you the most here between the Clippers and the, uh- So far, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, so far, yeah. Right.
42:31
I, I mean, and that's, you know, it's no, [laughs] you know me, it's not like I'm a Nuggets hater. No. And, and it's just been, I've been high on Clippers and Thunder.
42:37
And it's, uh, yeah, it's a t- t- it's a sweat all of a sudden. I mean, I got a lot of Thunder to win the West. A lot of Thunder to win the West. Same question I posed to Drew I pose to you.
42:46
I think the answer's probably Indiana because of all the uncertainties with Cleveland's injuries, so it's an easy answer to which of the big, you know, which of the, the favored teams pre-flop and current in these series is the most vulnerable.
42:58
So I think the easy answer is Cleveland. But if I had to say who's the second most vulnerable- Sure. I think, I think it's, it's, I think it's easy, and it's OKC...
43:06
it's not the T-Wolves who haven't even taken the court yet against the Warriors? Oh, yeah, okay, okay, sorry. If we're including them of- Yeah... I thought we were talking about the teams that have already lost.
43:13
But yeah, it's, uh, yeah, I'll say T- I'll say, man, it's a great question. I'll say Timberwolves, but yeah, it's, it's Thunder before it's Celtics for me. Thunder before Celtics.
43:26
I mean, getting out- Which, which is a bit of a- Yes... a culture shock for you. Yeah, for me, I mean, yesterday when we were- Yeah... talking about this, I, I was, look, I was gonna give the Knicks a game or two.
43:35
I, Celtics, like we saw last, I, like, that's not that huge of a shock to me. That the Celtics messed around and took too many threes- 'Cause it's happened before... and got done. We've seen it before.
43:44
We've seen it before. And we've seen over the course of a seven-game series, guess what? Their way still works. So I think that's what's gonna happen.
43:50
But when the Thunder bring in Isaiah Hartenstein and try to redesign this whole front court to specifically handle problems like Nikola Jokic, and he goes for 40 and 20 on you, and you get out-rebounded by 20, a- that's a concern.
44:03
That, that is a concern for going forward. I love that Hartenstein shot where he doesn't actually shoot the ball. The ball just kind of goes up with him as he jumps. Yeah.
44:11
Uh, I think another one to watch out with that is Chet I think could be in foul trouble this whole series. I think I'll be looking at Chet unders. Drama, man. It only continues, the soap opera that is the NBA playoffs.
44:22
Money moves, top of the hour. Stormy Bonatony and the equally lovely JBT coming up. Enjoy, from Vsin, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music]
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