Search
Login
Sign Up
May 8, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 8, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | May 8, 2024
00:00
50:52
1×
Transcript
0:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. He's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on BSIN. Wednesday edition of the Numbers Game here on BSIN.
0:12
Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. Kelly Bidlin on the desk with me as always. We'll have Jonathan Vontobel a little bit later to talk the NBA. We'll have Will Hill join us.
0:21
He'll talk some NBA, he'll talk some Major League Baseball, and maybe some other sports somewhere along the way as well with Will Hill.
0:27
We will recap everything we saw last night and give you our thoughts as we move forward with everything. Gonna hit some NFL topics today as well, specifically NFL MVP. Long tease, it pa- paid off.
0:38
If you were here yesterday, long tease paid off. We're gonna talk NFL MVP market. A ticket in my account that I love a ton, price still available, so we'll talk about that as well.
0:49
As I'm watching these games last night, and you see the Celtics go at it...
0:52
And I, I get it, the shiny new toy, Anthony Edwards, and, and I get that we're watching this Timberwolves team that's going in and has really put it to the defending champions in the Nuggets.
1:01
But you're sitting there watching the Celtics, and you start to realize, yeah, I get it, they don't have the shiny new toy. It seems like they almost old hat, old news at this point.
1:10
And then they start hitting threes, and you realize this team is unbeatable if they hit threes.
1:14
And you watch this Celtics team as they, as they start to prove to everyone yet again, they show everyone yet again, "Oh, by the way, don't forget about us.
1:23
Don't forget that we are very, very good and very, very talented." And they go out and they hit 18 threes last night.
1:31
They win the offensive rebounding game two to one, and what that allows them to do is hoist up more threes. Yes, if you look at just the percentages, you're gonna say, "All right, well, that didn't blow me away."
1:42
They, yeah, I mean, they, they put up over 40 threes. They made 18 of them.
1:46
But the fact of the matter is, is if you make 18 threes over the course of a game, it is going to be really tough for another team to compete with you, and that is what we saw last night in this Celtics squad.
1:57
I think we forgot, I think we slept just a little bit on how good that this Celtics team actually is because of what the Wolves have done so far. And Kelly, you go in and you look, 18 threes for the Celtics.
2:09
You get 32 from Brown, you get 25 from White. Pritchard chips in 16 off the bench. Tatum doesn't even have to be not only the primary scorer, he didn't even have to be the secondary scorer in this game.
2:21
And not only do they win, they win convincingly very, very easy over the Cavaliers. And I'm not taking away anything that the Wolves have done so far.
2:29
They've been incredibly impressive in what they've been able to do against Jamal Murray and Jokic, and the defending champions. That being said, it seems like we almost forgot how good this Celtics team is.
2:40
Yeah, they're just rolling. They're just rolling right now. And that, that, uh, could maybe be applied to, uh, both of [laughs] both teams who won last night. They are just rolling. Um, and, uh, yeah, I...
2:51
This is- 25-point victory, by the way... Yeah, th- Just to... If you didn't catch, 25-point victory last night for the Celtics. Yeah, and you talked about the rebounding. I mean, they out-rebounded them 55 to 38.
2:58
Like, it was- Yeah... gross. You have guards running around grabbing offensive boards, no problem, on the Boston side of things. Uh, and, and it is where it, it... Look, the, Cleveland's missing Jarrett Allen for sure.
3:10
Like, there, that is definitely a, a aspect of the game that he would help with. Um, does that mean that his, his insertion into the lineup [laughs] is gonna lead to wins in this series? I don't really know about that.
3:21
Um, I think it's a lot of, uh... If you've been high on this Boston team all year, this... You saw last night a lot of what you've been seeing, uh, all year round.
3:28
Like you said, you're getting contributions from elsewhere. Uh, Tatum doesn't even have to g- have to have a big game, and, and usually it's him or Brown- Yeah... that kind of go back and forth.
3:36
Only get to the line 14 times- Mm-hmm... but it doesn't matter. They make 12 of the 14, but they put up 46 threes in the game, and this is what the Celtics do. They put up a ton of threes.
3:45
And when they offensive rebound like they did last night, again, two to one offensive rebounds comparatively to what the Cavs were able to do, it allows them to put up even more threes, Kelly.
3:54
And so, yeah, I mean, 39%, still nice, but, like, you're not blown away by that percentage. But the fact of the matter is it's a volume thing with the Celtics.
4:01
They are gonna put up a ton of threes, and so long as they are not just ice cold- Yep... if they're making it at a 39% clip, it's going to be very hard to compete with this team. As we mentioned, Brown goes for 32.
4:13
He was four of six from deep. White goes for 25. He was seven of 12 from deep. Tatum missed every single one of his threes, it didn't matter, because the other guys and the contributions that they put in here.
4:25
One of the bets that we did get on, in on yesterday, Kelly, that, that kind of cruised home despite the fact [laughs] that he did hit the bench early 'cause it was a blowout, Donovan Mitchell, as we said, 280, Kelly, we said, "He's gonna put up 25 shots."
4:37
[laughs] Yep. How many shots he have? He put up 25 shots. Yeah. He put up 25 shots. I mean, like, it's, it's gonna... The volume of Donovan Mitchell's going to be there.
4:44
That point prop at 27 and a half, we were just blown away that it was so incredibly low. He goes for 33.
4:49
But the fact of the matter is, we said this heading into this, Drew said this heading into this, everybody we've talked to said they are just outgunned in this series, and they are outgunned a ton.
4:59
There's only Donovan Mitchell on the Cavs side of things that can do anything. In 37 minutes, he produced 33 points, and they still lose by 25, if that tells you anything of how outmatched they are in this series.
5:10
Yeah, yeah, it's exactly... I... Yeah, it, it's exactly what it, what it's probably [laughs] gonna look like the whole series. Um, he's gonna get up his shots, though. I think that was... I, I liked that bet.
5:19
Loved that you brought that up yesterday. That number seemed low. Just got, uh, just looking at the, the numbers now, got posted again, 29 and a half- Yeah... is what we're up to.
5:27
They weren't letting people get, yeah, get away with that again. That's for sure. I te- I texted you, though, man. I think I'm betting this over till they pr- they post in the 30s.
5:34
Until it's 30 and a half or 31 and a half, I'll be going back to it, 'cause it, it's... Just the volume of shots, man, it's gonna be there every single night. He's the only one that can consistently score. Yep.
5:42
And so he has to do it. Yep. Like, I mean, and, and this, again, this was, this was 25 shots up in 37 minutes. Like, he's, he hit the bench. Like, he- Yeah...
5:50
if this game is even somewhat competitive, he's into the 40s in the minutes. It's just, you know, there was no reason to run him out there for, for any longer than it was.
5:57
And so I think that's something we can kind of target moving forward here. They double up the point spread, obviously. Goes off 12, 12 and a half.
6:02
They win by 25 Kelly, I, I, I mean, we knew this wasn't going to be a series. We were trying to say you, you could talk yourself around in circles as how the Cavs might pull this off.
6:12
I think this proves what kind of what we were saying. This is not going to happen. Mm. Do you take anything...
6:17
I guess the, the biggest question for us now as bettors, though, do we take anything away from this series with the Celtics moving forward? Because again, it's just not very much competition for them.
6:26
Yeah, no, I, I don't really think that you can. I, I, I really don't. I, and you know, it's gonna be interesting to see what kind of condition the Knicks are kind of... [laughs] You know, if it's the Knicks.
6:36
If it's the Knicks, right. God, I shouldn't be saying things like that. Right, right, right. If it's the Knicks. Yeah. Um, but you know, if it's the Pacers, I think it's gonna be another cruise job anyways. Yeah.
6:43
But I... But you know, the Knicks might be in a situation where, you know, Mitchell Robinson's gonna miss a game tonight. Like, they're depleted. Bojan Bogdanovic is out for them, uh, for the rest of the postseason here.
6:52
They're kind of losing guys. And if they, they... You know, we, we keep, uh, you know, we, we, we keep gushing about the, uh, the, the, the Nova3 and everything like that.
7:01
But if these guys can't keep playing those number of minutes at that high level of basketball, I... Who... The Eastern Conference Finals might not even be all that exciting. Yeah.
7:10
Their first test might be when they get in the NBA finals, where there are some very good teams in the Western Conference. Yes. No, I, absolutely. I, I, I look at the Celtic team last night and I...
7:19
Listen, I was as guilty of it as anyone else. You get wrapped up in what you see with the athleticism o- of Anthony Edwards. You get wrapped up in the fact that that defense smothered the defending champions.
7:28
Can't get anything going. And like, we just get wrapped up in the Wolves. And then you s- you see the Celtics last night and you go, "Oh yeah, they're s- [laughs] they're really good." Yeah, they're, they're really good.
7:35
They're really [laughs] They are... they're really, really, really good. I mean, it's absurd.
7:37
L- l- when you just, when you just see the f- the starting five that are on the court, and then you think about, okay, Kristap Por- uh, Porzingis is not there. Yeah. I mean, Derrick White is so good. Mm-hmm.
7:46
Does anybody understand how good Derrick White is? I don't think people do. And he's like getting better. On both sides of the ball. And he's getting better- Yeah... somehow every year. Yeah, I don't even get it.
7:53
Like, he's somehow still getting be- uh... Yeah, it's just- Like- Yeah, it's, it's, it's- I'm not gonna say he's the best player on the team, Matt, 'cause I think I might catch a lot of incoming for that. Yes.
8:02
He's the most consistent- Yeah... this consistent good player on the team. Night in, night out. Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Night in, night out. No doubt about that.
8:08
And then unfortunately, if you were hoping that you would get a better game in the night cap, you didn't. Uh, 117-95, Thunder over the Mavericks. And you get 20 from Kyrie. He shoots 50% from the field.
8:21
He's three of four from three. But you know, that wasn't good enough. You sit there and you look at Luka, only goes for 19. He was six of 19 from the field. He struggled from three, one of eight from three for Luka.
8:32
Had five turnovers as well in this one. And Kelly, I'll admit, i- this one did sho-... Like, the f- game one, I'm kind of like, "Yeah, this is going to plan." This one kind of did shock me.
8:42
And it's not that I didn't think the Thunder could win the game. Certainly, that was in the realm of possibilities as we're talking through all this. I just didn't think we would be looking at a complete one-way traffic.
8:52
And it seemed like every time the Mavs would put together a tiny little run- Yeah, yep... they'd get within five, six. It's right back out to nine, 10. Mm-hmm. Get within five, six, right back out to nine, 10.
9:02
This Thunders team never, ever, ever relented, kept the pressure on the entire time. You get 29 from SGA. And, and with all that, you get, you know, chip in for 18 from Holmgren, 18 from Williams. The bench comes in.
9:14
Wiggins gives you 16. I mean, there, there's just... Th- this, this team, I, I'm, I'm not writing this series off. I think the Mavs can still, can still hang.
9:22
But boy, you see a Thunder team play like that, as complete as they did last night, and you're like, "Wow, that, that is, uh, that is also a pretty good f- pretty good basketball team."
9:29
I think what, I think the most impressive part about that game last night is, is you're, you keep watching some of these teams, especially these teams that go deeper during the regular season like the Thunder do, into their bench.
9:41
And it's, okay, postseason, you're gonna short- you're gonna tighten up rotations, shorten the bench. How are these guys gonna handle it? Uh, this is how the Thunder have won all season long- Yeah...
9:49
is by relying on, on more than five guys. So it's... To see those contributions, Jalen Williams, Wiggins, both of them were huge off the bench last night. That's not, it's not something that's weird for the Thunder.
10:00
Yeah. And that's gonna keep being their go-to. I think the s- I mean, the scary part- Nine guys, Kelly, that played 15 minutes or more. Yeah. Nine guys- Yeah... played 15 minutes or more.
10:07
And that's how they're gonna play. Yeah. I mean, I think the scary part is, Shai, you listed the numbers. I thought Shai looked a little rusty in the first half. Mm.
10:14
He, I mean, he w- he was missing mid-range shots that I've seen him hit, like, are basically automatic- Yeah... for him at this point. So the fact that he coulda even had a better game is a little scary to me.
10:24
Um, and then look, Luka's, I mean, Luka's battling, man. He's battling through the knee, through, I don't e- I don't know if he aggravated something else last night. He looks slow.
10:32
Dude, I mean- I mean, he looks like me out there running up and down the basketball court... yeah, I mean, he looks slow... that's not a good thing.
10:35
[laughs] And like, you can tell, like, the, uh, the one of eight tells it in the three too. Like, there's no lift to the shot. Yeah. There's no, uh... It's just he... Yeah. His front rim and everything. Yeah.
10:44
It's just, it's leaving it short. Just slow, yeah. And then, like, Kyrie picked things up a bit, but he started off really slow too, 'cause so, so the beginning of the game it was kind of, where are the Mavericks going?
10:52
It was good to see... Now, if you're a Mavericks backer like me, it was good to see Tim Hardaway Jr. get back out there and play 17 minutes. 'Cause I think that, uh, for someone holding futures tickets, it's been okay.
11:03
If Kyrie, if Kyrie and Luka aren't both having a great game, some of these games are gonna be tough to win later on in the playoffs when you don't really have another scorer to look at.
11:12
So Tim Hardaway, good to see him back on the court. Need to get him back in, back in the flow a little bit more. It didn't change the outcome of the game. The Mavs were also 68% from the free throw line. Yeah.
11:21
Gotta do better than that as well. Lots of free hockey last night. The Rangers four to three, winners in double overtime. They take a 2-0 lead over the Hurricanes.
11:29
Avalanche win four to three in overtime, take a 1-0 series lead on the Stars as well. You got all the free hockey last night as well for all of the fans.
11:38
We'll get into some news a little bit later in the show, but next JBT joins us. We'll see what he thinks. Are these series over, Kelly?
11:44
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:01
Wednesday edition of a numbers game here on VSiN. Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. Spent the entire first segment there recapping the NBA.
12:10
But Kelly- It is the playoffs, and we have to continue talking the NBA with our senior NBA analyst, also host every single weeknight here of VSAN Primetime, Jonathan Von Tobel. JBT, how you doing, buddy?
12:24
I'm very excited about the way these playoffs are shaping up. Are you now? I mean, let's, let's be honest. Are you, are you, are you really excited about how this is going?
12:33
Well, as, as somebody who's holding a Timberwolves sort of the one Western Conference ticket, uh, very much so. Uh, multiple series bets off- [laughs]... very good start. So yes.
12:40
No, I, I do enjoy the way that we have started out this, uh, the second round of the postseason.
12:44
Well, I'm glad that you were able to join us here on the Progressive guest line this morning to talk some NBA as we try to break down...
12:50
Let's, you know, let's, let's talk, let's start with what we saw last night, and then we can talk about stuff moving forward.
12:55
But I, I was making the point to Kelly, you listen, y- you kind of listen to all the hype and, and, and rightfully so.
13:01
The Timberwolves have really, really exceeded, I think, even the highest of expectations for everybody so far through these first couple of games.
13:07
We see all the, you know, shiny new toys that are out there on the, on the court.
13:11
It's easy to get wrapped up in all of that hype, and then you watch the Celtics last night just go out and absolutely trounce the Cavs, which we, which was expected.
13:18
I mean, it was 12, 12-and-a-half-point spread, but they made it look easy. And I think we...
13:23
Do you think at all we've kind of slept a little bit on just exactly how good this Celtics team, especially when the, when they're, when they're dropping threes, and they made 18 of them last night?
13:31
Yeah, I mean, I think we are to a certain extent because as you kinda mentioned, right, this is the expectation. Mm-hmm. I mean, they're over three-dollar favorites to win the Eastern Conference at this point right now.
13:40
Um, you know, they're getting these lesser opponents in these first two rounds. And, and frankly, the Eastern Conference is falling perfectly for them, right?
13:46
They, the Knicks lose Mitchell Robinson yesterday for six to eight weeks.
13:49
They should still win that series against Indiana, but you're gonna get a team that's probably gonna have a six-man rotation by the time you get to the Eastern Conference finals.
13:56
Um, you know, so the expectation's there, and it's kinda ho-hum. I, and I think we... I do. I was just talking about this with somebody.
14:02
What I'm gonna be interested in is if they make it to the NBA finals and we finally get to see this team k- play competitive basketball, Matt, is that gonna be a negative for that team, right? Yeah.
14:09
That they've just kind of trounced through an Eastern Conference, haven't been tested. Remember the last two years where they have failed, they have failed in crunch time.
14:16
Like, they have not been a good crunch time offense. Uh, it has been very poor in terms of their clutch time net rating.
14:21
And if you're not playing any clutch games for, like, two months, how is that gonna look when the time you get to the NBA finals? But I think overall, I think you are right. Like, we've expected this of Boston.
14:29
The point spread of the market expects this of them.
14:31
And we've kinda forgotten how good it is, and especially because you're watching Minnesota not only do what they're doing but doing it in a deeper conference against opponents, Phoenix and Denver, that the market generally had better expectations for.
14:42
So then we get into the, the late game last night, and everyone expecting, "Okay, well, at least we might get a good one here." That ends up not being the case, the 117-95 victory for the Thunder.
14:52
And, and, you know, you look at Luka, 6 of 19, 1 of 8 from deep. He's, you know, misses four free throws, 6 of 10 from the line, all the stuff like that with him, five turnovers.
15:01
We knew he was banged up a little bit here, JBT, but man, watching that last night, it was almost tough to watch 'cause you could just tell, like, he's slow. He's lumbering out there.
15:11
It's, uh, it's like I don't wanna say he looks like a Joe Schmo, an average guy, 'cause he's still Luka Dončić, but he doesn't look anything...
15:18
He doesn't look like the special dude, [laughs] you know, that we, that we know Luka is. And if that's the case, the Mavs just have no shot in this, right? Yeah, I mean, th- th- you're absolutely right.
15:26
He, and he doesn't really... He had one kind of really fluid step back, uh, throughout the game. But, like, even his step back doesn't look as quick and as, as fluid and pristine as he usually does.
15:35
Uh, I think everything you've talked about, right? There was a point where he takes the knee brace off, and they're just kinda, like, looking at it, "What's going on?"
15:40
[laughs] Like, there's just so much going on here with that knee. And, and I would say, too, and I wrote about this yesterday, and we've talked about it a couple of times.
15:47
Man, I think the underrated aspect of that series is that Maxi Kleber's not available. Mm-hmm. You know, he was their small ball center.
15:52
When he was on the floor against the Clippers, they had an offensive rating when he was at center of 150.9. You know, he was awesome for what they wanted to do.
16:00
And he gives you some versatility because you could play him at power forward. You could play your two bigs. You could still have shooting and spacing. It's so much that he can do for that team.
16:07
And yet, now, not only is he not out there, but your best player is now injured and beleaguered with injury.
16:12
And now, all of a sudden, you're looking around and going, "Well, we're not killing this team on the glass like we should.
16:16
And then our best guy, who, by the way, already has to fight through Lou Dort, Jaylen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, all three of those guys being very good on-ball defenders."
16:24
It, it seems like a really big ask for this Dallas team right now. So I don't think they're gonna get swept. I, I think they still have plenty of competitive nature. Daniel Gafford's very good.
16:32
Kyrie Irving looks incredible. I think they're good enough to, to make this a series in general.
16:36
But I think overall, when you're talking about over the course of a best of seven, if this is the way that Luka Dončić is gonna look, you know, I, I bet the Thunder before the series started.
16:43
I, I feel somewhat confident in my position here that they're gonna be able to win this series. Yeah, so let's, uh, let's go ahead and look at tonight.
16:50
Pacers and Knicks currently sitting four and a half in favor of the Knicks at home, 220 the total. If you think the Pacers win this thing outright, plus 154.
16:59
Can the Pacers win this series or, I mean, even this game against the Knicks with Haliburton no-showing? I mean, I understand that, that he had the injury. He hasn't looked the same since.
17:11
But we're talking, like, almost a complete no-show in game one, JBT. And, you know, it's, it's like you get as, as much as you can from everybody else on the court, and it still wasn't good enough.
17:21
And so i- if, if Haliburton can't step it up, then what more can the Pacers offer? No, I, I would agree with that, and that's the part that sucks, right? Because the other part is they don't play well defensively.
17:32
Mm-hmm. The Knicks had an offensive rating of over 120 in that game one win. So even though it was tight, you, again, as a team just cannot get stops.
17:40
So when we're talking about, again, crunch time, if you get into those minutes, are you going to be able to get stops consistently? No, you're, you're not. And so I, I think that's part of the big problem.
17:48
You mentioned it. Since he suffered that injury, Tyrese Haliburton's a 30% three-point shooter. He hasn't been effective in terms of scoring at all, well under 20 points a game. We saw that again.
17:57
You know, if he's not gonna show up, are you gonna get some of these, we'll call them, you know, sh- like, we'll call...
18:01
not outlier, but strong shooting performances from everybody else like they did in game one to make that a tight contest? And I think that's a little bit of a problem.
18:08
And the other part, too, going back to the defense is outside of maybe trying Pascal Siakam, Matt, they got nobody for Jalen Brunson. Mm-hmm. They got nobody. Like, he's gonna eat them alive.
18:14
So I, I think it's gonna be kinda hard here. And what I think the strategy would be, though, is without Mitchell Robinson, you better go after Isaiah Hartenstein like every pick roll.
18:22
You gotta try to get him into foul trouble. You gotta try to get Jericho Sims on the floor or a, or a shorter, uh, precious Achiuwa. That's the way to victory.
18:29
But I just don't know if you're gonna do that consistently enough and if you're gonna be able to defend enough So let's talk a little...
18:35
Let's do a little sports talk radio here early morning on a Wednesday, JBT, and Jamal Murray does not get suspended. Just 100K fine for him for what we thought at the time was only throwing one.
18:47
Then he tried to throw two things onto the court. The one just didn't make it. The towel, the wind catches the towel, the towel doesn't make it onto the court, but the heat pad does.
18:56
I gotta admit, and this has nothing to do with, with anything. I don't have any, any bets in that series as far as, like, series bets. I don't have any futures. So I'm, I'm not saying this from a biased standpoint.
19:07
Like, I was actually fairly disappointed. I feel like the NBA is doing some kind of special treatment stuff here because if this happens in the regular season, he is for sure suspended.
19:16
It's like, just because this is the playoffs and just because we wanna try and give the Nuggets a chance to be competitive in this, that this guy can do something, again, in any other, in any other forum.
19:26
And honestly, I'm even gonna, gonna go as far as to say if, if this was, like, the ninth guy on the bench that did this, he would be suspended. But since it's Jamal Murray, he doesn't get suspended.
19:35
W- w- I think I was expecting, I think maybe you were expecting it. W- what, what went on here? Yeah. At full disclosure, again, like, I've got this Timberwolves ticket- Yeah... so maybe I am a little bit biased.
19:45
Um, I, I, I'm completely shocked. I think he should've been suspended. I don't think there's any question about it. Like, this isn't a matter...
19:50
Like, even just, like, remo- Like, okay, he threw something harmless onto the floor. No. Like, when you watch that video, that heating pad slides into live action. Mm-hmm. It hit his own teammate's foot.
20:00
What if, what if Jokic plants his foot on that and slips out? Right? What if Karl-Anthony Towns plants his foot on that and slips out and gets seriously injured? Like, that's a dangerous thing that he did.
20:10
We see these guys tweak ankles all the time just by softly stepping on people's feet. What happens if you step on that slip? We, we were just talking about Tyrese Haliburton.
20:17
Guys, Tyrese Haliburton got injured because he slipped on a wet spot on the floor. Mm-hmm. Right? Like- Yep... that was a serious injury. What if that happens again here?
20:24
I am amazed that the NBA did not suspend him, especially after watching... Look, say what you want about Draymond Green. Yeah, he stomped onto Monta Simon's chest, okay?
20:33
Y- if you're gonna suspend him, you suspend Jamal Murray. He could have injured any one of the guys that was out there during live action.
20:39
And to me, the fact that, Matt, and I'll use your phrase, right, that you wanted to keep your defending champions competitive and not suspend him for a game three on the road is absolutely ridiculous, and you've set a dangerous precedent.
20:49
J- Jamal Murray shouldn't be playing on Friday. I don't think there's any question about it. Yeah. I, I, I am shocked. I am shocked. Me too. We, we... That, that, that came down yesterday. It was...
20:58
I understand it's playoffs. We, we maybe thought it was gonna be a little... I mean, w- I think during the regular season we've seen multiple games. The fact of the matter, the fact that we've...
21:05
After the fact, after the matter, we see that he tried to do it twice. Tried. I mean, that's the, that's the mo- Yeah. That's the biggest thing, right? It's the towel throw.
21:13
So okay, you could maybe justify somebody losing their cool for a minute, but when you go to throw something a second time- [laughs]... you are very clearly intentionally trying to throw- Yeah...
21:23
something at a ref- Oh... onto the court. And as JBT said, like, if we're... If someone got hurt, w- you cannot tell me that this is, would be the same kind of- Yeah. Exactly... punishment, uh, that would've come down.
21:35
We would've s- not seen Jamal Murray for- We're being results oriented. We're being results oriented. Exactly. We're being results oriented. No one got hurt, so everything's okay. It's, no- Kelly... it's not that...
21:41
This should not be that. How about this, guys? You think if it's me in the third row, you think if I'm throwing something out there on the floor they're letting me watch the rest of that game?
21:48
You're never coming back to the stadium. Yeah. [laughs] Right? You're never allowed back in. You're, you're banned for life. Like, that'd be it. Yep. It'd be... You'd be the guy.
21:55
I- You'd be the h- you'd be the heat pad guy. By the way, to put that in perspective, if anybody's wondering, "Whoa, whoa, $100,000," though, it still sounds like, it sounds like a, a lot.
22:02
I was trying to run these numbers, and then ESPN did it for me, so I'm gonna, uh, use theirs. [laughs] Uh, how about that is 24.2% of his game check in the playoffs?
22:11
[laughs] Not even a quarter of basketball is what he's gotta pay for. Oh, boy. Well, team- And I mean, and I don't wanna be too... Like, I just say this too. Mm. Like, the, the officials let a lot get...
22:20
Like, like, the fact that Michael Malone can run out there and get in the face of an official during a game, it was absolutely ridiculous what they let go on. It really is.
22:26
John, uh, really rooting for you on these futures tickets, buddy, and hopefully, uh, hopefully they get home, and hopefully we get some better basketball games moving forward. Yeah, let's go T Wolves. I need it.
22:37
When we come back, let's talk a little baseball. Yeah, Kelly, we're gonna talk baseball here on this program- Yeah... whenever we come back. I got a couple futures tickets. Let's do it.
22:43
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. This segment is brought to you by ZYN nicotine pouches. Few things are as rewarding as winning the big game.
23:00
But rewards from America's number one nicotine pouch comes close. ZYN nicotine pouches are smoke free, spit free, hassle free, and can be enjoyed anywhere, anytime.
23:10
Plus, every can earns you points towards 70 plus premium rewards items. Find your ZYN at your local convenience store, or online at zyn.com. That's Z-Y-N.com. Warning, this product contains nicotine.
23:22
Nicotine is an addictive chemical. Nobody had any idea that I could sound like that whenever... See, it's, it's- [laughs]... it's j- when it's prerecorded, you know, I can, I can, I can channel that in my voice.
23:33
But, like, it's just when it's live I can't do it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You know? I gotta concentrate. And, uh- That's what Matt came in here yesterday morning. He's like, "Let's just bang these all out now." Yeah.
23:40
"I'm just gonna record them. We'll run them back." It's weird. I'm like, it sounds better when I record them- [laughs]... you know, than it does whenever you're doing live. So did that.
23:46
Ugh, just channeled that, that nice base there for a minute. That's the voice of the legend Ryan Hunter. It is. Ryan Hunter in Alaska, right? In Alaska. [laughs] In Alaska. In Alaska. We're talking about you in Alaska.
23:55
Hey, well done. It is Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander here on The Numbers Game on a Wednesday. Spent the first couple segments talking about the NBA, but rightfully so.
24:02
I mean, this is, uh, you know, as a betting, uh, kind of as a betting event, Kelly, it's been a little bit underwhelming so far. Mm-hmm. So hopefully we can turn things around.
24:11
Again, the game tonight is, is only a four and a half point spread, so there is that.
24:15
But we've had some, you know, it's- All the way up to 13 and a half now for the Celtics for this next one, probably rightfully so yet again. So I'm, I'm just... I'm hoping we can get some more competitive stuff going on.
24:26
Yeah. Yeah. Real quick- Yeah... and we'll talk about more about that game later. Uh, that is tonight. It is... It's interesting, man. I, I've got my big Knicks, uh, Knicks series bet, so I'll just be stepping back. Yeah.
24:34
I'm not doing anything with the game tonight. Um, and there's been some sharp Pacers money coming in, I know. I- Mm... I know there's some guys that like the Pacers side.
24:41
I think if you're watching that, watch game one, it's, it's a little bit understandable now. Mm. Mitchell Robinson out of the game too, uh, for the Knicks. JVT talked about a little bit how the...
24:50
how New York will handle that. I think Harden's team will be text, uh, tested, and you're gonna see, you're gonna see a lot of pressure to chew. Yeah. I think you are gonna see that tonight. So- And Thibs runs his guy...
24:58
could be an interesting game. I mean, Thibs plays his guys. Yep. He plays his dudes. Like, I mean, like, it's short bench, you play 40 plus, whatever.
25:04
I mean, like, so maybe there's some leg stuff that could be going on here too. So I, I, I can understand it. I can understand it for sure. I'm not gonna venture into that though. Yeah, no, no. I'm not gonna venture in.
25:13
I, I... I mean, this Knicks team is, is... I mean, it's got heat vibes of last year for sure. It is. I... They, they keep firing, they keep hitting everything [laughs] when they need to hit it. So I...
25:23
Yeah, I'm not getting in front of them right now. So let's talk some Major League Baseball. By the way, uh, do have some early games today.
25:29
So first pitch in a couple hours actually in the Angels and Pirates if you want to get involved in that one. Pirates are a minus 142 favorite at home over the Angels. And, and several 1:00 Eastern first pitches as well.
25:42
Jays and Phillies, Tigers and Guardians, Mets and Cardinals all coming to you 1:00 Eastern today as well. Aaron Nola on the hill for the Phillies, who have been very good so far.
25:53
You look at this Philly squad, and I am, uh, I'm pretty impressed with what they're able to do. Now that, that being said, Trea Turner has been a, has been a, a... at least a run score base stealer for them.
26:03
He's gonna miss six weeks for them. Is that going to really affect what we've seen so far for this Phillies team?
26:07
I don't know if it really will when it all comes down to it, but certainly is not good when Trea Turner's not out there. They are a big minus 170 favorite over the Toronto Blue Jays.
26:17
Talked a little bit about them yesterday with Paul Spohr, and it's... The fact... They just can't hit right now.
26:21
I mean, the Blue Jays, uh, despite the fact they have names and they've got dudes, they, they just can't hit. And so we'll see if they can start to turn things around. The Tigers and the Guardians.
26:29
This is Reese Olson versus Tanner Bibee. Minus 135 for the Guardians at home with Bibee, and Olson is a plus 114 underdog on the road with the Tigers.
26:40
If you kind of look at just the surface stats on this, Olson looks much better than Bibee, and then you go into the advanced statistics on this one and you see if you kind of look at the expected stuff, like what should be coming forward with all this, Bibee's numbers aren't necessarily as bad as we have seen so far, and Olson's numbers are actually a little bit better than what we think we will see kind of moving forward with that.
27:01
So m- The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Wednesday edition of a numbers game here on VSiN.
27:14
Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. Kelly Bidlin on the desk with me as always. We'll have Jonathan Von Tobel a little bit later to talk the NBA. We'll have Will Hill join us.
27:23
He'll talk some NBA, he'll talk some Major League Baseball and maybe some other sports somewhere along the way as well with Will Hill.
27:29
We will recap everything we saw last night and give you our thoughts as we move forward with everything, and hit some NFL topics today as well, specifically NFL MVP. Long tease.
27:39
If it pa- paid off if you were here yesterday. Long tease paid off. We're gonna talk M- NFL MVP market. A ticket in my account that I love a ton, price still available, so we'll talk about that as well.
27:51
As I'm watching these games last night and you see the Celtics go at it, and I, I get it, the shiny new toy, Anthony Edwards, and, and I get that we're watching this Timberwolves team that's going in and has really put it to the defending champions in the Nuggets.
28:03
But you're sitting there watching the Celtics and you start to realize, "Yeah, I get it. They don't have the shiny new toy." It seems like they almost old hat, old news at this point.
28:12
And then they start hitting threes, and you realize this team is unbeatable if they hit threes.
28:16
And you watch this Celtics team as they, as they start to prove to everyone yet again, they show everyone yet again, "Oh, by the way, don't forget about us.
28:25
Don't forget that we are very, very good and very, very talented." And they go out and they hit 18 threes last night.
28:33
They win the offensive rebounding game two to one, and what that allows them to do is hoist up more threes. Yes, if you look at just the percentages, you're gonna say, "Oh, well, that didn't blow me away." They...
28:45
Yeah, I mean, they, they put up over 40 threes. They made 18 of them.
28:48
But the fact of the matter is, is if you make 18 threes over the course of a game, it is going to be really tough for another team to compete with you, and that is what we saw last night in this Celtics squad.
28:59
I think we forgot, I think we slept just a little bit on how good that this Celtics team actually is because of what the Wolves have done so far. And Kelly, you go in and you look, 18 threes for the Celtics.
29:11
You get 32 from Brown, you get 25 from White. Pritchard chips in 16 off the bench. Tatum doesn't even have to be not only the primary scorer, he didn't even have to be the secondary scorer in this game.
29:23
And not only do they win, they win convincingly very, very easy over the Cavaliers. And I'm not taking away anything that the Wolves have done so far.
29:31
They've been incredibly impressive in what they've been able to do against Jamal Murray and Jokic and the defending champions. That being said, it seems like we almost forgot how good this Celtics team is.
29:42
Yeah, they're just rolling. They're just rolling right now, and that, that, uh, could maybe be applied to, uh, both of... both teams who won last night. [laughs] They are just rolling. Um, and, uh, yeah, I...
29:53
This is- 25-point victory, by the way. Yeah. Just if you didn't catch, 25-point victory last night for the Celtics. Yeah, and you talked about the rebounding. I mean, they out-rebounded them 55 to 38.
30:00
Like it was- Yeah... gross. You have guards running around grabbing offensive boards, no problem on the Boston side of things. Uh, and, and it is where it, it... Look, the... Cleveland's missing Jarrett Allen for sure.
30:12
Like, there... that is definitely a, a aspect of the game that he would help with. Um, does that mean that His, his insertion into the lineup is going to lead to wins in this series. I don't really know about that.
30:23
Um, I think it's a lot of... If you've been high on this Boston team all year, this... You saw last night a lot of what you've been seeing, uh, all year round. Like you said, you're getting contributions from elsewhere.
30:33
Uh, Tatum doesn't even have to g- have to have a big game, and, and usually it's him or Brown to kind of go back and forth. Yeah. Only get to the line 14 times- Mm... but it doesn't matter.
30:40
They make 12 of the 14, but they put up 46 threes in the game, and this is what the Celtics do. They put up a ton of threes.
30:47
And when they offensive rebound like they did last night, again, two to one offensive rebounds comparatively to what the Cavs were able to do, it allows them to put up even more threes, Kelly.
30:56
And so, yeah, I mean, 39%, still nice, but, like, you're not blown away by that percentage. But the fact of the matter is it's a volume thing with the Celtics.
31:03
They are gonna put up a ton of threes, and so long as they are not just ice cold- Yep... if they're making it at a 39% clip, it's going to be very hard to compete with this team. As we mentioned, Brown goes for 32.
31:15
He was four of six from deep. White goes for 25. He was seven of 12 from deep. Tatum missed every single one of his threes. It didn't matter, because the other guys and the contributions that they put in here.
31:27
One of the bets that we did get on, in on yesterday, Kelly, that, that kind of cruised home despite the fact that he did hit the bench early because it was a blowout, Donovan Mitchell, as we said, 280, Kelly.
31:37
We said, "He's gonna put up 25 shots." [laughs] Yep. How many shots, yo? He put up 25 shots. Yeah. He put up 25 shots. I mean, like, it's, it's gonna... The volume of Donovan Mitchell's going to be there.
31:46
That point prop at 27 and a half, we were just blown away that it was so incredibly low. He goes for 33.
31:51
But the fact of the matter is, we said this heading into this, Drew said this heading into this, everybody we've talked to said they are just outgunned in this series, and they are outgunned a ton.
32:01
There's only Donovan Mitchell on the Cavs side of things that can do anything. In 37 minutes, he produced 33 points, and they still lose by 25, if that tells you anything of how outmatched they are in this series. Yeah.
32:12
Yeah, it's exactly... Yeah, yeah, it's exactly what it, what it's probably [laughs] gonna look like the whole series. Um, he's gonna get up his shots, though. I think that was... I, I liked that bet.
32:21
Loved that you brought that up yesterday. That number seemed low. Just got, uh, just looking at the numbers now, got posted again. 29 and a half- Yeah... is what we're up to.
32:29
They weren't letting people get, yeah, get away with that again, that's for sure. I te- I texted you, though, man. I think I'm betting this over till they pr- they post in the 30s.
32:36
Until it's 30 and a half or 31 and a half, I'll be going back to it, 'cause it, it's just the volume of shots, man. It's gonna be there every single game. He's the only one that can consistently score. Yep.
32:44
And so he has to do it. Yep. Like, I mean, and, and this, again, this was, this was 25 shots up in 37 minutes. Like, he's, he hit the bench. Like, he- Yeah...
32:52
if this game is even somewhat competitive, he's into the 40s in the minutes. It's just, you know, there was no reason to run him out there for, for any longer than it was.
32:59
And so I think that's something we can kind of target moving forward here. They double up the point spread, obviously. Goes off 12, 12 and a half. They win by 25.
33:06
Kelly, I, I, I mean, we knew this wasn't going to be a series. We were trying to say you, you could talk yourself around in circles as to how the Cavs might pull this off.
33:14
I think this proves what kind of what we were saying. This is not going to happen. Mm. Do you take anything...
33:19
I guess the, the biggest question for us now as bettors, though, do we take anything away from this series with the Celtics moving forward? Because, again, it's just not very much competition for them.
33:28
Yeah, no, I, I don't really think that you can. I, I really don't. I... And, you know, it's gonna be interesting to see what kind of condition the Knicks kind of... You know, if it's the Knicks.
33:38
If it's the Knicks, right. God, I shouldn't be saying things like that. Right, right, right. If it's the Knicks. Yeah. Um, but, you know, if it's the Pacers, I think it's gonna be another cruise job anyways. Yeah.
33:45
But I, but, you know, the Knicks might be in a situation where, you know, Mitchell Robinson's gonna miss the game tonight. Like, they're depleted.
33:51
Bojan Bogdanovic is out for them, uh, for the rest of the postseason here. They're kind of losing guys. And if you, the...
33:56
You know, we, we keep, uh, you know, we, we, we keep gushing about the, the, the, the, the Nova3 and everything like that, but if these guys can't keep playing those number of minutes at that high level of basketball, I...
34:09
Who... The Eastern Conference Finals might not even be all that exciting. Yeah. Their first test might be when they get into the NBA Finals, where there are some very good teams in the Western Conference. Yes.
34:18
No, a- absolutely. I, I, I look at the Celtics team last night, and I, listen, I was as guilty of as anyone else. You get wrapped up in what you see with the athleticism o- of Anthony Edwards.
34:26
You get wrapped up in the fact that that defense smothered the defending champions. Can't get anything going.
34:31
And, like, we just get wrapped up in the Wolves, and then you s- you see the Celtics last night, and you go, "Oh, yeah, they're s- [laughs] they're really good." Yeah, they're, they're real.
34:36
They're, they're really- They're real... they're really, really, really good. I mean, it's absurd.
34:39
L- l- when you just, when you just see the f- the starting five that are on the court, and then you think about, okay, Kristap Por- uh, Porzingis is not there. Yeah. I'm like, Derrick White is so good. Mm-hmm.
34:48
Does anybody understand how good Derrick White is? I don't think people do on both sides- And he's, like, getting better... of the ball. And he's getting better- Yeah... somehow every year. Yeah, I don't even get it.
34:55
Like, he's somehow still getting better. Yeah, it's just- Like- Yeah, it's, it, it- I'm not gonna say he's the best player on the team, Matt, 'cause I think I might catch a lot of income for that. Yes.
35:04
He's the most consistent- Yeah... consistent good player on the team, though. Night in, night out. Yeah. Yeah, night in, night out. No doubt about that.
35:10
And then unfortunately, if you were hoping that you would get a better game in the night cap, you didn't. Uh, 117-95 Thunder over the Mavericks. And you get 20 from Kyrie. He shoots 50% from the field.
35:23
He's three of four from three, but, you know, that wasn't good enough. You sit there and you look at Luka, only goes for 19. He was six of 19 from the field. He struggled from three, one of eight from three for Luka.
35:34
Had five turnovers as well in this one. And Kelly, I'll admit, this one did sho- like the f- game one, I'm kind of like, "Yeah, this is going to plan." This one kind of did shock me.
35:44
And it's not that I didn't think the Thunder could win the game. Certainly that was in the realm of possibilities as we're talking through all this. I just didn't think we would be looking at a complete one-way traffic.
35:54
And it seemed like every time the Mavs would put together a tiny little run- Yeah, yep... they'd get within five, six. It's right back out to nine, 10. Mm-hmm. Get within five, six, right back out to nine, 10.
36:04
This Thunders team never, ever, ever relented, kept the pressure on the entire time. You get 29 from SGA. A- and with all that, you get, you know, chip in for 18 from Holmgren, 18 from Williams. The bench comes in.
36:16
Wiggins gives you 16. I mean, there, there's just This, this team, I, I'm, I'm not writing this series off. I think the Mavs can still, can still hang.
36:24
But boy, you see a Thunder team play like that as complete as they did last night, and you're like, "Wow, that, that is, uh, that is also a pretty good f- pretty good basketball team."
36:31
I think wha- I think the most impressive part about that game last night is, is you're...
36:36
You keep watching some of these teams, especially these teams that go deeper during the regular season like the Thunder do into their bench, and it's, okay, postseason, you're gonna short- you're gonna tighten up rotations, shorten the bench.
36:47
How are these guys gonna handle it? Uh, this is how the Thunder have won all season long- Yeah... is by relying on, on more than five guys.
36:53
So it's, to see those contributions, Jalen Williams, Wiggins, both of them were huge off the bench last night, that's not... it's not something that's weird for the Thunder. Yeah. And that's gonna keep being their go-to.
37:04
I think the s- I mean, the scary part- Nine guys, Kelly, that played 15 minutes or more. Yeah. Nine guys- Yeah... played 15 minutes or more. And that's how they're gonna play. Yeah. I mean, I think the scary part is,
37:12
Shai, you listed the numbers. I thought Shai looked a little rusty in the first half. Mm. He, I mean, he w- he was missing mid-range shots that I've seen him hit, like, are basically automatic- Yeah...
37:21
for him at this point. So the fact that he could even have had a better game is a little scary to me. Um, and then look, Luka's, I mean, Luka's battling, man.
37:28
He's battling through the knee, through, I don't know, I don't know if he aggravated something else last night. He looks slow, doesn't he? I mean, he looks like me out there running on the basketball court.
37:35
Yeah, he looks slow. That's not a good thing. [laughs] And, like, you can tell, like, the, uh, the one of eight tells it in the three too. Like, there's no lift to the shot. Yeah. There's no wa- It's just he...
37:43
Yeah, yeah. Front rim and everything. Yeah. It's just- Just slow... it's leaving it short. Yeah.
37:47
And then, like, Kyrie picked things up a bit, but he started off really slow too, 'cause so, so the beginning of the game it was kind of where are the Mavericks going? It was good to see...
37:55
Now if you're a Mavericks backer like me, it was good to see Tim Hardaway Jr. get back out there and play 17 minutes. 'Cause I think that, I, for someone holding futures tickets, it's been okay.
38:05
If Kyrie, if Kyrie and Luka aren't both having a great game, some of these games are gonna be tough to win later on in the playoffs when you don't really have another scorer to look at.
38:14
So Tim Hardaway, good to see him back on the court. Need to get him back in, back in the flow a little bit more. It didn't change the outcome of the game. The Mavs were also 68% from the free throw line. Yeah.
38:23
Gotta do better than that as well. Lots of free hockey last night. The Rangers four to three, winners in double overtime. They take a two-oh lead over the Hurricanes. Avalanche win four to three in overtime.
38:34
Take a one-oh series lead on the Stars as well. You got all the free hockey last night as well for all of the fans. We'll get into some news a little bit later in the show, but next JBT joins us.
38:43
We'll see what he thinks. Are these series over, Kelly? [upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do.
39:02
It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VPN. Wednesday edition of a Numbers Game, hour number two, Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander.
39:13
This segment brought to you by Zen Nicotine Pouches. Kelly Bidlin on the desk with me as well. Kelly, we heard Magic Carpet Ride going on out there. I would Gil...
39:23
I will give you $1.8 million if you can tell me who sings Magic Carpet Ride. Bob Seger. 'Cause I know that you have zeroed- [laughs] I, that's why I know that my $1.8 million is safe, because you have no idea.
39:33
Steppenwolf. Steppenwolf, Magic Carpet Ride. Oh, man. Yeah. Sean McCombs always trying to help me out. You, you, you were just a step too late.
39:39
Yeah, it's, well, [laughs] you would, you would not have cheated me out of my $1.8 million, so I, I feel okay. You would not- Hey, you know what? Shocking things have happened on this show in the last week.
39:49
I, I don't even remember what tennis players, I, I spelled the names correctly, although Gil, Gil was... He was, he w- There was said there was no chance I was gonna get them right, and I did. Look at you.
39:58
Well- Felix Auger-Aliassime versus someone else I'm not remembering right now. But you- Y- Yiri, whatever Yiri's last name... Well, Hejka. You've typed enough- That's what it was. I was trying to...
40:07
I tried to explain that to Gil. Yeah. You've typed him enough into the rundown or whatever that, yeah. When he first challenged me, I'm like, "Well, I gotta write them."
40:14
He's like, "What do you mean you gotta write them?" I'm like, "That's what, that's where I've, I've written them so many times." [laughs] Yeah, you're like, "I can't spell it like this.
40:20
I need to write it down-" [laughs] "... and then I can... Yeah, and then we can go." They're gonna be that ki- you know, the kid at the spelling bee who does it with their hand or whatever. Yeah.
40:26
Now joining us here on the Progressive guest line, Will Hill. You can find him all over our network. You can also find him not the Will Hill over on the Twitter machine as well. Will, thanks for joining us, man.
40:35
Appreciate it. Well, we, we don't know what you can find, I think is, is, is the weirdest. [laughs] But I didn't know it was Steppenwolf.
40:42
That's, uh, that must have been a one hit wonder, 'cause that's a pretty popular, pretty famous song. Without... I don't know that I've ever heard of Steppenwolf. 1.8 million is a very random number.
40:49
How did we arrive at 1.8 million? I, uh, that I can... That I can't tell you. That, that just- Oh, okay... that, that really did just come off the top of my head. They also did- Oh, okay... the hit Born to Be Wild.
40:58
What we should have, what we should have said is, uh- Wow... what we should have said is that the 1.8 million came to mind because if they were only gonna fine Jamal Murray, that's where they should have fined him.
41:06
[laughs] But instead, like yeah, it's, we- just as well, I don't know, the only number that came to the top of my head. So let's start in the NBA, and you are looking at tomorrow's game in the Cavs and the Celtics here.
41:21
And you're gonna go on the Cavs team total. Yep. I'm gonna go back to the well here, and this was, uh, anyone who I, I gave this along yesterday.
41:29
Anyone who tailed along had a sweaty little victory yesterday by under 50 and a half first half team total for the Cavs. I, I probably prefer that to the, uh, 99 and a half- Mm...
41:38
full game total just because, uh, garbage time, look, the, that's why they call it garbage time. Garbage can happen in garbage time. It did stay un- under the, the full game.
41:45
Uh, and the Cavs last night had, uh, I think three points in the last three and a half minutes to stay under. But I just think from a matchup standpoint it's just very hard for the Cavs to find offense here.
41:55
There's, uh, really nobody you have to double. I think the, the Celtics have enough wings, enough bodies where they can play Mitchell straight up. You don't have to double. You don't have to over help.
42:04
No Allen means really no second chance points for Cleveland. In order for Cleveland to have any hope on the other end defensively, they're gonna have to play some non-shooters like Okoro and some of these bigs.
42:13
So again, I just think that instead of laying these exorbitant spreads, 13 and a half, I'm sure it'll close probably 14, which look, they, they covered. They, they were good for it.
42:21
But, uh, I'd rather just play the team total under for the Cavs, 'cause that's really the matchup I think favors Boston.
42:26
And look, Cleveland's coming off a long series of physical grinding series, uh, playing every other day now. There's probably some fatigue there, and I just think matchup-wise it's gonna be hard for Cleveland to score.
42:34
So Cavs team total under 99 and a half for the full game. I don't know if DraftKings has a full- a, a first half one yet.
42:40
I'm sure you're probably looking at 50, 50 and a half, something like that, and that's probably the, the way I'd prefer to go there. Yeah, there was a couple ugly ones.
42:47
That, that, that bet last night, I was, I was watching and tracking, uh, Will, 'cause I knew there was a couple people on that one.
42:53
And then, yeah, if you're, if you're on the over like I was in, uh, Dallas, uh, Oklahoma City, that was painful as well 'cause, uh, I, I mean, it ended up being, you know, several points off.
43:01
But with, uh, Kidd waving the white flag with five minutes left and pulling everybody out in an OKC... "Okay, well, we don't really have to score anymore." Yeah. Like, great.
43:09
[laughs] Just dribbling out the clock every single time. You're going like, "Come on, guys. Come on, guys." Brutal. That was unbelievable, yes.
43:16
All right, so let's go to a, a series bet that you have before we circle back to tonight's game, and we can talk a little bit more about that one in depth. But you like what you saw from OKC. Yeah, I had OKC last night.
43:28
I had them for the series. I picked OKC in six. I might be, like, a game too long now. I'm sure Dallas might... They could have their moments in the series. I just don't know that Luka's healthy.
43:36
I think Luka missed, what, three of his last 17 shots. He started out healthy. I don't know if he tweaked it or if he just... You know what?
43:44
He can start out okay, and then it just, it, it wears on him, but he does not look healthy. He looks diminished. He looks limited. And this Thunder team is just really good.
43:52
They've flown under the radar, I think 'cause they have such a good future. All these picks, all these young players. People, "Oh, you know, a year from now, two years from now they're gonna be in good shape."
43:58
They're in great shape right now. They are an under the radar one seed. Uh, so OKC minus one and a half games for the series. I think they win the series. I don't think it goes seven.
44:07
I'm, I'm kind of torn now between five and six, but I, I do like them in game two, too. I, I would lay the five again. I just don't know that Luka's healthy.
44:12
So I think OKC m- minus one and a half games, where basically they just have to win the series and they don't have to play game seven. I, I think they'll be up 2-0, probably get a split in Dallas. And I don't know.
44:20
Again, I'm torn between the five and the six, but this is, uh, this is not looking good for Dallas. If you c- I- if this is the version of Luka you're gonna get, this is gonna be a pretty short series here.
44:28
Talking to Will Hill here on the, uh, Progressive Guest Line. Will, let's go to tonight's game. It is the Pacers and the Knicks.
44:35
It is now four and a half in favor of the Knicks at home, 219 the total, plus 154 if you think the Pacers win it outright.
44:43
Uh, when this thing was sitting at five, you took advantage of that extra half point and you are on the Pacers. Yeah, I think this is a must win for Indy. I just don't kn- Again, the old, uh, adage, nobody...
44:54
The, the series doesn't start till a, a road team wins a game or whatever is left. I- if you're Indy, you're not gonna win four out of five against this Knicks team. They're too evenly matched.
45:01
Winning a game seven in the Garden, I think, is a lot to ask. I think you need to get 1-1.
45:04
I always think if you're the road team and you're serious about winning a series, you probably have to be up 3-1, 'cause even 2-2 with five and seven on the road is not a good scenario.
45:12
Uh, I just think Indy will get a more favorable whistle tonight, just human nature based on, you know, what happened the other night, which was just a ridiculous, uh, end to that game so many different ways with the, the kickball, the moving screen.
45:23
They, they got an unfair whistle. So look, the Knicks, they played seven playoff games. They've all been close. The Knicks don't blow anybody out. I thought they'd win the series and win it comfortably.
45:31
I was kind of impressed with Indy, where may- hey, maybe these two teams are a little closer than I might have thought.
45:35
I just thought the Knicks' physicality, toughness would be the difference in the series, and it still might be. But, um, look, make sure you get the best of number.
45:42
I'd obviously rather have a five than a four and a half. Um, but I, I don't know that there's a ton that separates these teams, and Indy really could have, should have won the game the other night, and you got what?
45:49
Six, six shots from Haliburton. So I'll, I'll take the points here. Knicks play tons of close games, and Knicks are eventually... I mean, I, I know you guys are talking about it.
45:56
Eventually they're gonna run out of bodies here. I mean, you're- Mm... you're basically not using your bullpen. You're just using your five starters. You're, you're basically using six guys now Mitchell's banged up.
46:02
It's just a lot of injuries, a lot of wear and tear on the Knicks. You wonder how sustainable this is. Will, before we, uh, before we shift over to Major League Baseball, just your thoughts on Nuggets-Timberwolves.
46:13
Nuggets have a shot in coming back in this thing? No, done, over. I was very concerned after game one.
46:19
Usually when the road team wins game one, I hammer the home team game two and say, "Hey, we've seen this movie before." Uh, th- you know, the road team is happy with their split.
46:27
Ga- the home team comes out for blood in game two. I, I didn't bet Minnesota game two, but I didn't bet Denver. I was very nervous ba- based on what I saw in game one where I was like, man, this, this looks real.
46:36
This looks repeatable for Minnesota. There's just... They take away so much of what Denver does, the stuff at the... You know, alley-oops, back cuts, front of the rim floaters. They're just so long, so athletic, it...
46:46
Man, it looks like they're playing with six or seven guys on defense, and now you're gonna flip the, flip buildings, flip venues here.
46:51
I would think Denver would come out with more intensity, but Denver winning four out of five here, uh, does not seem realistic here, unless Jokic is just gonna, uh, flip the script here and, and put up, uh, uh, whatever, 38, 15- [laughs]...
47:04
and 12 and just absolutely take over the game. But look, he's still the best player in the league. He's still capable of it.
47:08
This idea that now people are ripping Jokic and, uh, you know, he's n- not a deserving MVP, all the stuff, it's just, come on. Uh, g- give me a break.
47:14
But, uh, to me, Minnesota's gonna figure out a way to, uh, to win this series. I think it's much more likely, obviously, that Minnesota sweeps than Denver actually comes back and wins. Uh, let me ask you guys.
47:23
I was thinking about this the other day. If you're Denver right now... I was thinking about this yesterday. If you're Denver, would you sign for a split in Minnesota? Oh, man. Um, no. No. No. I, yeah, right?
47:35
Like, I think- Yeah... if you're Denver, you gotta be thinking you need w- every win- Yeah... possible here. Yeah. I don't think them being- Which I don't think they're getting. [laughs] I don't think they're going 2-0.
47:42
I don't know that they're going 1-1. I'm with you, Will. I, I think it looks overmatched right now. I'd say at least if you're 3-1. I would say at least if you're 3-1, all right, we got our sea legs under us.
47:48
We got a game. We got game five in Denver. May- if we make it 3-2 and then hey, we're kind of back in it. I don't know. I, it's just, it, it's a tough path, man. Down 2-0, going on the road is really...
47:58
It, it's a tough- Yeah... hill to climb. Minnesota just looks incredible. If Jamal Murray was right, I would give that a shot. Like you're saying, like I would say, like okay, you know, whatever.
48:05
At least they have a game- Yeah, they play nine together... whatever. Yeah. But th- they don't have, they don't, they don't have another killer.
48:09
It's, it's Jok- if Jo- like you're saying, Will, if, if Jokic doesn't go for 30... If he doesn't triple double basically, essentially. If he d- if he doesn't triple double, I don't understand.
48:17
I don't, I don't know how they get there. I, d- down to- He's gonna hit from threes, too. I mean, 'cause they don't- Yeah... they're not, they don't live at the free throw line.
48:23
They don't hit a ton of threes, so their stuff is all, like, the front of the rim, and Minnesota takes that away. Like, they're gonna have to find a way to get, get more threes in.
48:30
I, I just, I think it's done, too, but, uh, you know, prove me wrong. Uh, give me an exciting series, you know? Like- Oh, sure. Yeah... yeah. Prove me wrong. I wanna see it. Let's flip over to the-Diamond.
48:39
This is the game we actually hit on a little bit earlier, so I'm glad that you are on it here. The Tigers and the Guardians. This is Reese Olson versus Tanner Bibee.
48:46
Sitting minus 135 on the Guardians at home right now, plus 114 on the Tigers on the road. Seven and a half is the total for the full game, but you're gonna look at first five.
48:57
Yeah, I don't play too many full games- Mm-hmm... unders with these, uh, with, with the extra innings now. It just, that, you've been burned one too many times. You just, uh- [laughs]...
49:03
have a hard time going back to it. But, uh, under four i- is the, the number, and you can kind of pick your number. There's four and a half, like minus 150.
49:09
There's some minus 160s out there if you want the hook, where, hey, I win at 2-2, I win at 3-1 instead. But I'm gonna go under. Olson, five of his six starts, he's given up two runs or less. He's been pretty good.
49:18
Bibee, uh, was bad his last time out, but before that, seven shutout innings against the Braves. Th- these are two pretty good pitchers, two, um, you know, not, not great offenses.
49:25
So I'll go, uh, we'll, we'll call it under the four here for the first five. You got 45 seconds to tell us about the Rangers.
49:32
I've been a big Oakland at A's better, big proponent, but, uh, w- w- the market has kind of caught up to them. This idea that they're a coin flip basically now with the World Series Champion Rangers.
49:41
They were yesterday, they got destroyed. Uh, they're playing a double header today. Again, shop around, but they're in the minus 125, minus 135 range for both games. Uh, I took Texas for game one and for game two.
49:50
I just don't know that, uh, Oakland and Texas should be on like the same path here where, hey, this is like an even line. I'm, I, I think that's a little too much.
49:56
Yeah, Michael Lorenzen going for the Rangers in game one, and Jack Leiter going for the Rangers there in game two. And as you mentioned, game one, just a minus 125 favorite.
50:04
Lorenzen has some pedigree, though he's been up and down throughout the course of his career. So should be able to handle the A's, though. I know they've been feisty.
50:11
I know they've been feisty, but should be able to, to handle them. Will, thanks for the time today. You can find him up and down VSiN, so be sure, catch all of Will's appearances.
50:19
You can find him over at the Twitter machine @NotTheWillHill as well. Good luck today, man. All right. See you guys. Thanks for having me. When we come back, Kelly, let's head over to the NFL.
50:27
Let's take a look at some of these divisions and some of these divisional thoughts. We get some news coming out as well.
50:33
This is not on the NFC side of things, on the AFC side of things, but I wanna get your thoughts on that when we come back here on the Numbers Game on a Wednesday.
50:38
[upbeat music]
A Numbers Game
Listen on
Apple Podcasts
Apple Podcasts
Pocket Casts
Pocket Casts
Castro
Castro
Recent episodes
A Numbers Game | September 17, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 17, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 16, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 16, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 16, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 3
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 2
Sep 15, 2026
A Numbers Game | September 15, 2026 | Hour 1
Sep 15, 2026
Best of A Numbers Game | September 11, 2026
Sep 11, 2026
