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Nov 13, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | November 13, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | November 13, 2024
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Transcript
0:00
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0:26
The numbers told the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:35
There's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, where sports betting lives. Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin live from Circa. Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine, so much more than a producer.
0:46
How you doing, man? Doing great. How about you? I see you got your, uh, what did, what did we call it, your coffee this morning? What do we call it? Your emotional comfort? What is, what's the name of that? Yeah, yeah.
0:54
Emotional support coffee. Emotional support coffee. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's correct. That's what it- Yeah... yeah. Well, we, we have, we have special penalty boxes designed- Oh...
1:00
'cause I always have so many beverages on the table, so they, we have to clear them off to the side. Uh-huh. But my coffee I need a little bit closer than water, you know? All right. It's really important. Uh, you good?
1:08
Everything good with you? I'm good, man. I am good. Uh, nice to have, like, a, a midweek where you could actually sit down and watch some, uh, pro and college basketball. Great night of hoops.
1:15
Center stage last night, uh, we will have Jim Root from Three Man Weave. The Weavers are back, and we get, uh, Jim Root, uh, of those three guys, Matt and Kai, uh, in the, uh, on deck and in the hole.
1:28
Uh, on deck circle and in the hole for, uh, Three Man Weave. But Jim Root we get today. We'll talk AFC and NFC number one seed, if there is in fact a bet to be made in those.
1:37
And a little later on, JVT, our senior NBA analyst, talking, uh, Emirates NBA Cup, night number one. Jason Weingart will be here to join us. And you booked Wes Reynolds. Yes. Wes Reynolds in the house.
1:50
Well, not in the house. Uh, we will talk to Wes Reynolds about, uh, his love for, uh, undefeated Indiana football and, uh, if he's braced for Indiana football to get Keasterized come, uh- [laughs]...
2:01
final, final selection show. That's a wish and a desire to be Keasterized. That is hilarious. Yeah. Oh, man, I haven't even really asked him about it yet. Yeah.
2:07
You know, we're doing long shots every week, new long shots pod up now. Uh, and Wes, Wes coming off a winner last week. Uh, but yeah, I haven't even really asked him about Indiana football. Yeah.
2:15
Like, he's like Captain Indiana. I'm gonna phrase it that way and see if he just goes with it. [laughs] We'll see, we'll see.
2:20
I also, I also wanna have an in-depth discussion, uh, with Wes, 'cause Wes is a, uh, man of many, uh, interests.
2:25
Uh, went to see the Eagles, and, uh, I have a whole thing, and I'm curious if, uh, Wes will agree with me or disagree with me. Oh, where'd you go? Last night? No, no, no. Over the weekend. Oh, okay. Yeah.
2:34
Oh, you're doing it last weekend. Okay. Yeah. How was it? Uh- We never talked about it. Yeah, it's, uh, it's exactly what I thought. They have, sorry old rock and roll fans, but, uh, they to me, I've never loved the...
2:45
I, I, I went because someone had got me the ticket and so I- It was your first time at The Sphere, right? First time at The Sphere. We all wanted to go to The Sphere. It was wonderful. The Sphere is awesome.
2:52
Yeah, it's awesome. Um, do you want me to do the whole review now? But the, but it was essentially they have, like, five songs that all sound the same to me. It's like the same chords, but they- Yeah...
3:00
just rearrange them. So by the time one of their, you know, hits came on at the end, I was like, "Didn't they play this already?"
3:05
Um, but I also- There's w- there are way too many songs that I didn't know at all when I, when I was listening anyway. Oh, no, I'm familiar with them. I'm fami- well, yeah, it's probably, I wouldn't im- It's me...
3:13
I would imagine you wouldn't be, wouldn't. Just me, yeah.
3:14
But, um, I also think that the, the g- the glory of The Sphere is obviously in the visuals, and it was, no one has told me this, but I believe ha- knowing those, their personalities from the documentary, uh, the Eagles documentary, which is a great documentary, great rock and roll documentary, that at some point they decided, "Hey, uh, five, six songs into this, let's cut down the visuals and make sure everybody's watching us play our music."
3:41
Mm. I think, I think it was a concerted thing by them. Like, "I get it, we're at The Sphere, but we're the stars of the show." Do, do you remember what I told you about it? No.
3:49
The, the big d- the big difference, or I, it, like, it's my second show there, right? Yeah.
3:53
I went to see U2, and, like, the video, like, the producer mind of mine just sat back the whole time watching the wall, and I'm like, "You used this already for U2." [laughs] Like, it's the same thing for U2.
4:02
The, it is incredible though. Like, it is- Yeah, it's amazing. It's amazing... it, it, it absolutely lives up to the hype. It really does.
4:08
It, worth the price to go see a show, especially if it's a band you really wanna go see. It is worth it. Yeah. It is. Um, but you know, I'm, I'm just not a huge fan of theirs- Yeah... generally speaking. Yeah.
4:17
But Vince Gill is in the band. Why w- why didn't he do more? And I wanna know, maybe somebody can help me with this. Did they call Vince Gill, or did Vince Kill, Vince Gill call them? Great question. I have no idea.
4:27
I'd love, I'd love to know the answer to that. Uh, but Joe Walsh was great. It was a, it was a whole thing. Um, I recommend it, but again, you know, listen, mm, at some point the visuals go away.
4:37
Uh, okay, here's the deal.
4:38
Last night, um, let's start with, first of all, I just wanna get the college basketball 'cause we, we will talk to, uh, Wes about, uh, college hoops, or we'll talk to Jim Root about, uh, college hoops first.
4:48
But two great games.
4:49
This was the night last night where it was the old, you know, the Michigan State, Kansas, uh, Duke, Kentucky double header, which has become tradition on ESPN, and they do the second week of the college football rankings in between.
5:02
Uh, Michigan State hung with Kansas for most of that game before Kansas finally took over at the end. The, uh, the headliner though, of course, was Flagg and, and, and Duke
5:14
trying to get by Kentucky, and, uh, Cooper Flagg was great last night. Had himself a great game until the last minute of the game. Uh, he was dominant. He was everything the NBA scouts could have possibly wanted to see.
5:26
But on the final two possessions of this game, he, uh, he came up empty. Not that that's going to hurt him in the long run. Everybody, you know, no one should overreact to it.
5:34
But, uh, he had, uh, there was tie game, 72 a piece. He had 6'11" Andrew Sarr in front of him. He's like, "I'm gonna take him." But then Otego Owa of, uh, Kentucky came off the ball, off his player- Poked it away.
5:45
Uh, Kentucky went up with a couple free throws. And then the next possession, uh, he had seven- a Kentucky seven-footer, Amari Williams, had him pinned in the corner, and he lost control of the ball.
5:55
He c- he, he hit the, uh, baseline, turnover on the second consecutive possession. And so in the end, Kentucky wins it. By the way, he also didn't, on the subsequent free throws, he also did not, uh- Box out...
6:07
box out- Yeah... away after Lamont Butler missed the second of the two free throws. That squandered Duke's chance to perhaps get a, uh, last-gasp three-pointer. So it was a trifecta of mistakes at the end for him.
6:18
Uh, but it didn't take away from the overall, which is he is going to be great. I, uh, I got a great recap from Demond back there, our AP, uh, that, uh, broke down the final plays for [laughs] for me- Yeah...
6:30
'cause I did the whole thing, Gil, of I'm like, "All right, 6:00, I'm turning on Cooper Flagg. Let's go."
6:35
And then I got so wrapped up in NBA and, uh, before I knew it, it was, like, 7:45 and the game was over, almost over. [laughs] Well, he ends up, by the way, Flagg does, in defeat, 26 points, 12 boards.
6:48
So- Yeah, it's pretty good... not too bad. Um, b- as far as the NBA, by the way, Fini- Lou Finicara already texted me, "I know it's about the Eagles. I know he's upset about my take [laughs] on the Eagles."
6:56
[laughs] Uh, he's like, "Forget the sports bar. Let's get to the..." Um, the NBA last night, the, uh, the Em- the first night of the Emirates Cup, again, Tuesdays and Fridays up through December 14th and 17th.
7:08
That's when they play the semis and the finals. Remember, this is the in-season tournament that the Lakers so proudly won last year. Uh, they beat the Pacers in the final.
7:17
Um, we'll get to Steph 'cause that was the nightcap. But your thoughts, first of all, your thoughts on, on the courts, the whole event itself, and then let's just start with Joel Embiid.
7:27
Let's just get that out of the way. All right. Let's get it out of the way. Yeah. The courts, uh, I'm alr- I'm tired of talking about, and this is only year two, but yeah, of course I'm with everybody.
7:35
They look ridiculous. I also think isn't everybody on the same page now that the... Like, the Warriors won last night. Yes. Perfectly fine. And we all said the same thing last year.
7:44
These, like, gray or beige b- like, co- court covers they have, those all work. Just don't give me neon blue in my face. [laughs] Like, I, I don't really understand what- Some of them are startling- There's-...
7:54
'cause they're, like, playing on a mirror kinda... Celtics, Pistons last night. Oh, yeah. Oh, boy. Here we go. Yeah, if you're watching at home- Oh, there you go... you'll see all the different iterations for that.
8:02
It's kinda cool though, isn't it? So thank you, Gil. Like, I- it's, I feel like that's everybody's snap reaction to this tournament. Yeah. It's like, "Oh, God, the courts."
8:09
And I'm like, well, if that's the NBA's biggest problem with this tournament is your issue with the courts, then they're doing something right. Yeah. I kinda, I kinda dig it.
8:16
It lets you know that it's something different. And that's what they're trying to go for, right? I, I don't know.
8:20
I am, yes, uh, just like you, I, I am a little, it hurts the eye with, like, the Pistons one last night was awful. Let's, let's- The Celtics, I could go either way... let's do the bad and the good. The bad is Embiid.
8:30
Uh, Joel Embiid debut last night, 13 points, and then, uh, to say he had a hitch in his giddyup walking off the court would be an understatement. I w- I wrote the rundown for us, Gil.
8:39
Looks skinny, plays slower than I've ever seen. Th- th- that [laughs] was my takeaways from the first night. Oh.
8:45
Oh, man, he had some really sloppy play, uh, last night and 2 for 11 from the field, three rebounds, five assists. 2 for 11 is ungood. Yeah, ungood. 26 minutes. Um, I don't know if you caught this post-game, though.
8:58
Joel Embiid, who is now basically on record as saying he will not be playing in back-to-backs for most likely his entire career, decided to have some fun with the fans last night and, uh, say this after the game.
9:10
I mean, I want to. Uh, that's up to those guys. I mean, I know I said I will never play back-to-backs- [laughs]... but I'm a troll, so I'm sure at some point I'll play, but, but I feel good, feel good right now.
9:23
W- we're gonna see, um, but it, it's up to them. Sixers lose to the Knicks by 12.
9:30
Um, and it's just, for, for me, it's more you just step back and you wonder, like, how is, if this is in fact the, just the continuation of a, of a health decline and that we'll never see him.
9:42
And I remember he won an MVP. Maybe it was because they just got tired of giving it to Jokic that year. Yeah. But if, if this is in fact we're, we're seeing him on the downside and this will just continue, what a, uh,
9:53
what a shame, what a ca- what a career sort of lost, if that's the case. It's terrible. I, I caught the stat the other day. It's, like, 47% of the regular season games that he could have played in- Mm-hmm... he's missed.
10:03
Yeah. Like, he's missed half the regular season games he's played. They are nine, nine and a half point dogs at home against the Cav- Cavs tonight. Him and Paul George both questionable.
10:11
Uh, I don't, I don't expect to see him go, uh, Gil, but this is in the, just in the whole, uh, the whole story of, hey, we bet on these things. It's great when you get concrete information.
10:21
As much as people wanna freak out, it's actually great when we hear from someone like Joel Embiid, "Hey, I'm not gonna play in back-to-backs." And then after his first game, it's, "Well, I don't know. It's up to them.
10:30
It's not up to me. It's up to them."
10:31
That's one of five games tonight, the Cavaliers and the Sixers, one of five games tonight where a team is playing another, a, a team that is not playing a back-to-back is playing a team that is on a back-to-back.
10:41
So the Sixers are on a back-to-back there. Cavaliers trying to go 13 and 0, trying to go 13 and 0 as nine and a half point favorites on the road.
10:48
The other games that feature teams, um, that are on better rest, if you will, playing a team that's on a back-to-back when they did not play last night. Pacers gets to play the Magic, who lost last night.
10:59
Uh, the Nets are hosting the Celtics. The Celtics get beat by the Hawks. Hawks, uh, overcame a 15-point second half deficit to beat the Celtics last night. Um, they are, Celtics are what?
11:11
Eight and a half point, uh, road favorites in that one. The Bulls are gonna play the Knicks at New York. The Knicks still remain a, uh, eight and a half point favorite in that.
11:19
And the other one, the fifth one, is the, uh, Suns and the Kings. Suns coming off a victory last night. Kings get to play them.
11:25
Kings are seven and a half point favorites in that game tonight with the Suns on a back-to-back. Yeah. I laid six last night. That's the only one I'm on tonight. The, the best thing last night though was Steph, man.
11:34
Um, the, the s- the Warriors were up. The, uh, Mavericks took over. The Mavericks went on a seven to nothing run after the game was tied, and then Steph went crazy.
11:43
Scored the last 12 of this game in a game where Klay Thompson, in his return, in his glorious return to San Francisco, uh, where the crowd was just giving him all kinds of love before the game, during the game, after the game.
11:56
He scored 22. Klay did six three-pointers. But in the end, uh, Steph let you know it was his house. Let's go Warriors.
12:02
And he said it that way Warriors nine and two with a one twenty to s- a one seventeen win, and they cover in the process, uh, two and a half point favorites. We'll come back. Um, how about some, how about some NFL next?
12:15
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13:06
We get tweets that beat in the book, Cheap Prop Bets. "As a Bears fan, I'm actually happy for, uh, Jayden Daniels. The Bears would have likely screwed him up.
13:14
Coaching and organ- uh, coaching and organizations play such a huge role in the development of quarterbacks, uh, i.e., see the unlikable Green Bay Packers."
13:22
[laughs] Listen, I have said this for years on this show, if you are a keen numbers game, uh, listener, the, the one I always say is if Peyton Manning was drafted by Washington and he had a different coach and different coordinator every single year, uh, sure, he has pedigree because he's Peyton Manning, but he never would have become the Peyton Manning we know.
13:39
And there's no way I can prove this to you, but that is the thing about football. You're absolutely right. It is unlike basketball, where talent always wins. There's only five guys on a court. Talent will rise.
13:49
They don't always win the title, but they will always, uh, be the more impressive thing on a basketball court. Football is so absolutely dependent on the situation you get in. So you might be right, Cheap Prop Bets.
14:00
Maybe that's the case. Obviously, what he's talking about, the Packers, is, my goodness, um, t- two decades of Hall of Fame quarterbacking and now maybe a, a good player and maybe a perennial All-Pro in Jordan Love.
14:12
I used to say this about San Francisco. I was there at a time where Jeff Garcia was the quarterback right after Steve Young. They had had 21 years of Hall of Fame quarterbacking with Joe Montana and Steve Young.
14:22
And then when, when, uh, Jeff Garcia had the audacity to only make three Pro Bowls- [laughs]... they're like, "This guy sucks." Well, you guys gotta be kidding me. It's Jeff Garcia.
14:30
Uh, Stat Logic Sports, "One, is Caleb Williams special, and two, has Mike Tomlin ever had a losing season?" [laughs] He is not special. He is not special. There's nothing special about him.
14:38
Mike Alvarez, "First live show this week. Caleb having a tough start, but look at Jared Goff. He just had five picks and still won.
14:45
That's pretty bad, but it's not like Jared ever lost one being a 17-point favorite at home. Oh, wait."
14:50
[laughs] Oh, don't bring that back, that, that memory from, uh, those of us in Survivor in 2020 who got knocked out of that game. Uh, okay, let us talk some college hoops.
14:58
He comes to us courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him at, uh, 3MW_CBB. I believe I have that right after all these years. It's 3 Man Weaves, Jim Root. James Patrick Root, everybody. How you doing, Jim?
15:12
What's going on? I'm, I'm great, Gil. Good to be here. Yeah, you got that nailed. E- e- ever since we changed it from the double underscore of 3MW- Oh...
15:19
we really, uh, w- we, yeah, we had to figure that out, and I'm glad, uh, we, we've got you on board now too. Well, I appreciate it. Listen, let's, uh- [laughs]... let's start with, uh, let's start with...
15:28
Well, we'll start with what happened last night, and then we'll get to your more macro stu- stuff and then your picks today.
15:33
But, uh, Cooper Flagg, I said that at the beginning of the show, I'm like, "Hey, thir- obviously two turnovers, and then he didn't box out. Uh, everybody, let's not overreact. He's still going to be awesome.
15:44
He is absolutely was the best player on the court yesterday. Um, I don't think w- we'll have any disagreement on that. Did, did you... B- Was there a bigger takeaway from any of those four teams featured last night?
15:56
Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas, obviously, most prominently. Uh, not really. I, I, I think especially Duke probably doesn't need to be too worried at all about losing. They didn't make jump shots.
16:08
You mentioned the Flagg stuff late. And we were talking about this before we got on air. You know, Scheyer draws up that last play out of the timeout, um, and it's going to Flagg's weak hand.
16:18
That's just something that, that I find r- rather questionable, and you've got a whole timeout to set that up. They clear out the left side for Cooper Flagg. It, that doesn't really make sense to me.
16:26
It's hard to put that all on Flagg when really coaching could have corrected that a little bit. But yeah, I, I thought Duke looked great.
16:32
Kentucky i- impressively looking a little bit cohesive early on, and I like what they have in terms of different lineup options. They can play some really heavy defense lineups.
16:43
They can kind of go all offense, and that, that's a credit to what Mark Pope is able to do in the portal, just bringing in different kinds of players that mesh.
16:51
And they went over it, you know, ad nauseam last night, all the different things those guys have done off the court to try to come together.
16:56
But I generally think what I expected of the teams ended up happening and, and, you know, Duke didn't win. That, that's just certainly the expected outcome.
17:05
But I think i- if you really dig into the box score and, like, the sh- the three-point shooting numbers and Con- Knipple going 5 for 20, it's, it's hard to have anywhere near panic mode for Duke.
17:14
I, I think they acquitted themselves nicely despite the loss. I would, I would totally agree.
17:18
You are the guy, by the way, all you guys at 3 Man Weave, uh, do great with this, but you're the one specifically that as far as I- how I can remember it in my mind is the one known for having a whole bunch of futures tickets, really good futures tickets- [laughs]...
17:33
when it comes down to the end. What do you have in pocket this year? Oh, all kinds of them.
17:38
Yeah, I've, I've definitely started, uh, more of an, a portfolio approach over the last few years, just try to get as many good teams as I can at good prices.
17:46
You know, I picked off Auburn at 40 to 1 the second Jenai Broome announced he was coming back. That obviously looks pretty good right now with them sitting atop KenPom rankings. That went over Houston.
17:55
I've got Alabama something like 20 to 1, Houston around 20 to 1.
17:59
Just try to get as many as I can up in that, in that vicinity so that when we get down to it, uh, towards the end of the year, maybe some, some decent gambles. A couple longer shots
18:09
Might be decent prices right now that I think have really high upside that, that are might, uh, might be worth taking a look at. Texas Tech, uh, they're, they're way up there in KenPom rankings, almost top 10.
18:18
I think it's fully legit. I, I believe in them as a great, great team. They've got scoring, passing, bunch of different great defenders. They can play big, they can play small. They've got a great coach.
18:28
I think Texas Tech's gonna float right around that top 10 all season and be a candidate to make a run late.
18:33
And then the bigger, uh, couple gambles you could look at here, BYU and Illinois, uh, teams that I wasn't really buying early, uh, especially coming into the season, just kind of the, the youth that they had, the international flavor that they had.
18:45
I, I wasn't sure how it was gonna translate. Both teams have looked really good early on.
18:50
Now, uh, there's still a lot of testing to be done against actual competition, but if you're taking a swing for the fences, now they're both sitting around 20th in KenPom, maybe they end up leaping up and getting, you know, four seeds or something with the talent that they have, and then you look pretty smart and you have a nice portfolio towards the end of the year.
19:07
How much, by the way, a- and I don't mean to reduce your, your analysis on college basketball to this when you're doing futures, but how, what, what percentage of your futures plays comes down to, oh, look, here they're ranked in KenPom way higher than the betting market gives them credit for.
19:24
That's a bet. Not as much because, yeah, he doesn't come out with it till mid-October. A- and so all summer I'm just kind of trying to pick off, you know, good prices.
19:33
E- especially if like one book's just far off on a team, I, I'm, I'm pretty comfortable with that.
19:38
But then as we get into the year, uh, to your point, like, oh wow, this team's played really well, maybe even way better than I'm realizing.
19:45
They've risen up to 22nd in KenPom and they're still sitting 150 to 1, hmm, maybe that's something- Hmm... that's worth taking a, taking a shot at.
19:52
So I do try to balance it out, especially during the year then KenPom, KenPom has an influence. Yeah. As good a method of any.
19:57
By the way, uh, Alabama, just wanna point this out, so good that Houston Mallette is redshirting. That's how good- Yeah... Alabama is. Just wanna point that out. Um, okay.
20:06
Uh, how has the season gone f- so far, this very young season, in terms of just picking games? It's, it's started well. Sides have treated me well.
20:14
Um, had a, had a bad totals night last night, just, just kind of was on the wrong side of a few. I mean, my own fault. Bad bets, not bad beats.
20:21
Uh, but I picked up the trend early in the season that it was gonna be an efficient season, so I got some overs early. Unders have started to make a comeback.
20:29
Efficiency not, uh, or at least the books have caught up with the incredible efficiency that the season has had so far. So feeling okay. Off to a decent start, Gil, and hopefully we can keep it going. All right.
20:39
Um, what have you got tonight? And I'm sure you've come equipped with rotation numbers. I sure did. A- and you know the most surprising part is I have nothing on the extra board, Gil. Oh, okay.
20:48
It feels, it feels foreign to me to not be dipping down into those, those teams, but- What kind of, what kind of segment is this without that? [laughs] I know. I'm not even trying at this point. Yeah.
20:55
But, uh, we'll, we'll start right off the top of the rotation. 668, first game on the board, Louisiana Tech and UMass taking the under 146 in this game. Uh, it's on a neutral site.
21:07
For some reason, these two are playing in New Jersey. I don't really know why Louisiana Tech is headed up there, but both of them have some pretty great interior defenders.
21:16
Louisiana Tech's got the defensive player of the year in their conference, Daniel Bacho, formerly of Arizona and Texas Tech. And then UMass has got a JUCO transfer that just blocks everything.
21:25
He, he's a pogo stick, seven-footer, long arms. I think both teams are gonna struggle to score in the paint. Both teams are, uh, they're playing on this like kind of neutral, cavernous...
21:35
It's gonna be a weird atmosphere. Not a lot of fans there. I think that's conducive to the under. So I like that one at the top. Next up, 706. Illinois, just talked about them a little bit in the futures section.
21:46
I'm gonna lay it with them, minus 23. They've looked really good early on, and they've got a lot of guys fighting for minutes, so if they're in a blowout, I think they've got guys that are gonna keep up the blowout late.
21:56
And Oakland's a mess right now. We loved Oakland in the NCAA tournament last year, but they lost a ton. They're kind of injured. They're trying to learn Greg Kampe's zone defense.
22:04
They're trying to figure out his offense. They got blown out by 40 or 50 in Boise in their first game, and I think Illinois is every bit capable of doing that. And last up, 708, Cal State Fullerton and Colorado.
22:18
I'm taking the under again here. 137. I think both teams' strengths are their front courts. You're gonna have a little bit of a clash there. Especially Colorado doesn't have a lot of guard talent, a lot of shot creation.
22:29
Fullerton's also gonna be pretty comfortable playing in the half court. So battle of the bigs. Elevation could keep this game a little bit lower possession for Fullerton.
22:38
I, I, I think the under is a pretty solid look there as well. Excellent use of elevation, Jim. Excellent. Well done.
22:45
Um, all these picks, in case you missed them, if they went too fast from Jim, all will be avail, uh, will be available, pardon me, at vsin.com/picks. Every guest, every host, every sport at vsin.com/picks.
22:56
Thank you, Jim. Appreciate it, man. Great to see you. Magnificent to see you, Gil. Appreciate it. Thank you. [laughs] Thank you very much. He one-upped me with magnificent.
23:03
[laughs] Uh, by the way, it's at 3MW_CBB for three-man weave, but, uh, Jim personally can be found at Second Chance Points. That's with the number two. We'll come back. Some number one seed thoughts in the NFL next.
23:22
The numbers tell the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
23:30
Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
23:39
This young man right here is Clay, how do you pronounce that, Bidalon. Yeah, close. Clay Bidalon. You'll get it one of these days.
23:46
By the way, the, uh, voice of Brent Musburger, uh, who does the voiceovers here for all of our segments here at VSiN, he is the, uh, guest on the Megapod tomorrow. Ooh. Beating the Book Megapod.
23:55
Uh, he, uh, Brent has agreed for a, uh, fourth consecutive year to, uh, subject himself to the Todd Wishnov experience, so we're very excited about that. That's a must-listen.
24:03
[laughs] I, I say to Todd, I'm like, "Okay, Todd, let's- It's Brent... let's, let's tamp- It's Brent Musburger... let's tamp it down this week." He goes, "I'm not gonna do that, Gil." I'm like, okay.
24:11
But glad we had this conversation. Glad that went well. Yeah. Uh, still to come this hour, Wes Reynolds joins us in a very solid booking by Kelly Bidlin, getting Wes on the show. Uh, Jason Weingarten and JVT standing by.
24:22
Real quick, I wanna read some tweets. This is from, uh, Brosek1870. Uh, he answered the question. He said, "Vince Gill was asked to join the Eagles after Glenn Frey died in 2017." So that a- that answers my question.
24:33
And I guess what, was Vince Gill sitting around, he's like, "Sure, I'll join y'all"? Yeah, but like, I... D- was he not involved, like, in every... Like, he was highlighted it seemed like in three or four songs.
24:43
I'm just telling you, all their songs sound the same. You can't hide your crying eyes, or was it lying eyes? I don't know. Hard, hard for me to argue that [laughs]. Yeah. All those songs sound the same.
24:52
Except for, uh, I Can't Tell You Why, that's the jam. Uh, Jamie Leyva, uh, Gill and, uh, Jim Root, as always, a great segment on the show. You might even say it was magnificent. Thank you very much.
25:02
Jason Stark says, "Oh, I know you made that pick, Kelly. I listen every day. You both heard from me last year when the Steelers, uh, hit my alt over nine and a half last season too.
25:10
Steelers, Ravens will likely end up a split. Browns sweep. Cincy split. That's 11. Eagles possible win too. 12." Oh, okay, he got to 12. Oh. We'll see.
25:20
And then, uh, Touchdown Jesus, "Great marketing by Morgan and Morgan, by the way, to include on their injury list a muscle pull fielding footballs, drowning in eggnog, or the incomparable tennis Achilles rupture."
25:30
[laughs] Yeah, the memo didn't get to Morgan and Morgan quite yet. But thanks for remembering all of our, uh, all of our mishaps. Hey, we- Yeah... neither one of us have gotten hurt since they've been sponsoring, okay?
25:40
[laughs] That's right. That's right. Ladies and gentlemen, he is our senior NBA analyst. He's also the coast of, uh, also the co-host, I should say, of VSIN Primetime.
25:47
It is the great Jonathan Von Tobel, @meJVT on Twitter, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. How you doing, Jon? Uh, a strong proponent of eggnog. Very excited about this time of year.
25:57
But, uh, it does upset my tummy just a little bit, so I cannot have a lot. [laughs] So I always get one quarter gallon of eggnog every year, and I make it last. Kelly can't even have a sip of it anymore. He's done.
26:07
Oh, I bet. I, I loved it so much, JVT. And, uh, Matt Brown and Gil Alexander ruined it for me. You're welcome.
26:12
Well, I mean, for those who might remember in our first year, I really have not had a hot dog since our infamous first hot dog eating challenge at the Vegas Stats and Information Network back at the South Point days.
26:20
Yes. Feel you. I, I feel it. Right? You still haven't had a single one? No, I didn't. Is this like a lifetime thing for us now? It, it's- We're, we're ruined?
26:27
I never was a hot dog guy to begin with, and then that traumatic experience. And I always say, like, the...
26:31
I actually got to ask professional eaters about this, which was it wasn't the fullness that gets me, it's the repetitive taste that got me in that challenge. Oh.
26:38
Like, I couldn't put any more down because the taste became so disgusting to me by the time I reached the fifth one, and that is what gets me. Not so much the being full and then purging five minutes later.
26:48
It, it was the fact that I could not stand the taste. So yeah, no. True story, I was there with Deborah Song, fashion stylist, observing Jon do this, and I said to her, at one point I go, "He's done."
26:57
She goes, "How do you know?" I go, "Look at his eyes." [laughs] J, you could see it in your face. He was done. Yep. He, like, re- he hit a wall. He's like, "I can't do it anymore." Oh, man.
27:05
Um, let me ask you about the, uh, the first night of the NBA, of the... So let me say it correctly, the Emirates NBA Cup 2024. Mm-hmm. Uh, rank these in terms of, like, thing or not a thing.
27:16
Uh, Embiid, 13 points and then limping off. Uh, Spoelstra with the timeout. And then to the good, Steph Curry with the 12-point flourish at the end to win it and get the cover for the Warriors.
27:28
And also to the good, the Atlanta Hawks with a great comeback yesterday, uh, overcoming a 15-point second half deficit against the Celtics. What, uh, what made the most impact on you? What moved the needle?
27:39
Uh, so I think in order we would go Curry, Hawks, Embiid, and Spoelstra. Spoelstra deserves just a quick moment because generally it's Erik Spoelstra. I don't think he really used that.
27:47
I think he's just in a fit of rage, called a timeout, didn't understand it. But Curry, guys, I thought, you know, this is the more incredible things we've seen.
27:53
And who knows if this sticks, but I was texting with, uh, our mutual friend Will Hill over the weekend. Kelly, I know that you were in on this as well too.
27:59
But, like, Curry was 150 to 1 on Sunday before they played the Thunder to win MVP. He's down to 35 to 1 this morning- 35 to 1... after these [laughs] yeah, these last two performances. He's been great.
28:08
And you guys know how much I like this Warriors team. Like, they are deep. They are good defensively.
28:13
It's funny, on the broadcast yesterday, they, the, one of the things that they talked about was like, "This is unsustainable how deep they are." Like, I think I'll, I think they'll take it, right?
28:20
Because Steph- Jon, this is exactly what I wanted to ask you about. I'm sorry to interrupt. It's okay. No, go ahead. It's ex- that was my Warriors follow-up because you're exactly right.
28:27
Charles Barkley intimated that this isn't sustainable. Not intimated, I think he actually used the words. Then Shaq went into his whole 10 game bucket thing where he was like- Yep...
28:36
"All right, so you know, Phil Jackson used to tell us you go nine and one for the first 10." Actually he went eight and two, but he was like, "The Warriors went nine and one." Yeah.
28:42
So he said, uh, he can see them going six and four, six and four, six and four. Do you have that same viewpoint of them, or do you feel like they're being a little harsh on this team?
28:51
No, like I, I think they can be great. So I, like I didn't really understand what the whole point of everything was in terms of unsustainability.
28:57
A- and talking about unsustainability in the sense of like they're too deep. Like Reggie, I think it was Reggie Jackson was on the call yesterday, and like he brought that up.
29:03
Like, "You know, at some point you're gonna have to figure this rotation out." Yeah, Reggie, we got like 70 games left. Like, I think we're gonna be fine to figure out exactly what our rotation's gonna look like.
29:11
But think about what some of the shortcomings of the Warriors teams in the last few years have been. It's been their depth, right? It's been Curry goes down, and all of a sudden you don't have anybody that you can trust.
29:20
Well, guys, they had a winning record in the games that Curry went down with, right? It was part of their really strong push here.
29:24
You know, you have really good defensive players in multiple positions, whether it's Wiggins, whether it's Melton, Deandre, uh, excuse me, Deandre, um, uh, Draymond Green.
29:32
Like, you've got so many different guys that can fit their roles perfectly. Like yeah, when you get to the post-season, figure out who your top eight are gonna be. But I think this is perfectly sustainable.
29:42
And I do think that road trip was a microcosm what this team could be. For those don't remember, it was the three game trip. They go to Boston, play a really great tight defensive game. They end up winning that.
29:50
In a really bad spot because of situationally right in the middle of a road trip after an emotional game, you go to Cleveland, you get your doors blown off. Everybody's getting beaten by Cleveland.
29:57
And then you bounce back and you beat Oklahoma City. Like, I think this team has a lot that works for them, and I think they match up well with a lot of these teams. I think you saw it yesterday.
30:05
They have the wing bodies to throw at Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving and feel comfortable defensively.
30:09
They have just enough size to match up with teams like that have rotation centers like, uh, Derrick Lively and, and Daniel Gafford.
30:16
So maybe this is just me, Gil, 'cause as you know, like I really like this team, and maybe I'm just seeing all of the positives.
30:21
I think this team, especially given the makeup of the top of the West, could be like a top three seed, top two seed in the Western Conference in this regular season. I think so.
30:28
And, uh, and Draymond Green, remember you, you brought him up.
30:30
But Draymond Green remains one of the weirdest, most unique unicorns of all, I know I'm being redundant, in sports, where it's like he's so key to this franchise and all those championships, but if you put him on any other team- Yeah...
30:44
I don't know if he's anything, you know? It's incredible. Oh, dude, of course. Last night, dude, the block on Gafford and the stare down- Oh, staring at him... as they go right back down. And like, but you're right.
30:52
Like, he made two great play. He had a really strong rebound, I think it was right after that, to help end a possession for, for, uh, Golden State defensively. Like, he's been great.
31:00
And we talk about, like, Victor Wembanyama to win Defensive Player of the Year. This top five defense in the NBA right now, in large part, is because of Draymond Green.
31:07
So I would not sleep on him to win that award either. What did you end up... So tonight is a regular, quote-unquote, "a regular"- Yes... NBA night. You do have- A boring night.
31:14
[laughs] You do have five teams, back to you, back to boring courts. Uh, you do have five games which feature a team that is on a back-to-back against a team that is not on a back-to-back. Are you playing any of those?
31:24
Are you playing any of the others? Yeah, so I think there's a couple. The, the ones involving, and this is just a, hey look, like I, this team I think is just worth fading in these situations.
31:32
Philadelphia 76ers are taking on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Uh, Cavs, as we know, have been, uh, pretty much rolling to this point.
31:37
But Philadelphia, coming off of that game against New York, we know, we know the situation with Joel Embiid and f- and Paul George.
31:44
The expectation that this is gonna be a short-handed team, uh, with some minutes restrictions in place if guys do play. I laid eight and a half here with Cleveland.
31:50
I think they're gonna be able to take care of business against the 76ers, and that's kind of been the strategy for me. And really that, that's about it. I think there was a couple of games that stuck out.
31:58
You know, for example, I know the market kinda likes to play in these home-and-home, or like these sp- baseball series we should say.
32:04
Uh, like Minnesota a- and Portland, maybe having Portland, uh, excuse me, Minnesota stick around inside of this, uh, in, in this game and eventually win and cover would be something.
32:11
But I think maybe you're going first half in that regard than anything else, 'cause I haven't really loved what I've seen from the Timberwolves.
32:16
That was kind of for me, numbers would say play it, but I'm not really gonna do it 'cause I haven't liked what I've seen from Minnesota. A- and that's about it.
32:22
I also had Indiana on my list of plays to potentially make, uh, but don't, don't really like the injuries to their depth overall, and Orlando really surprised me yesterday.
32:30
I thought it was gonna be a much tighter game, and they blew out Charlotte. So for right now, the only thing that I've got, laid Cleveland minus eight and a half on the road against Philly.
32:37
Uh, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention this. I was gonna get off the NBA, but the, the Cavaliers are 12 and 0. They're among a handful of teams that have done this. That's it in the history of the NBA.
32:44
To, to beat the Warriors' record, by the way, for the greatest record of all time, 73 and 9, the Cavs merely [laughs] merely need to go 62 and 8 the rest of the way, which is still just unbelievable to think about.
32:57
But 12 and 0 is 12 and 0. Uh, in a year where the Winnipeg Jets are also 15 and 1. That's never been done in hockey. Is, is this just a small sample size thing? I mean, I get it, they're good, but...
33:08
And, and no one's expecting them to be, to be spectacularly good. But, like, w- where do you rank them in the Eastern Conference? Oh, they're solidly two. Okay. I don't think there's really any question about that.
33:19
And we could say, I mean, look, like you just said, right? No Trae Young, and, uh, the Boston Celtics just lost to Atlanta. We saw them go to overtime with Brooklyn. We saw them lose in overtime to Indiana.
33:29
So I think Boston's fine, but again, it's not a perfect team by any stretch. But I think Cleveland, everything we've seen from them I think is legitimate. Uh, w- there is...
33:37
And there's a tangible change, obviously, right, from last year. Kenny Atkinson is now their head coach. Yeah.
33:41
They are changing the way that they're playing basketball, and I think those changes have translated to a team that, if you remember, they went to Paris last year, Gil. They were like 40 and 20 at one point.
33:50
They were ripping off wins left and right, and injuries completely obliterated their season.
33:54
Now I think we kinda saw this coming last year, and Kenny Atkinson is kinda putting the foot on the gas and accelerating what we saw last season.
34:00
Now I think they are legitimately the second-best team in the Eastern Conference, and could push Boston in a best of seven series.
34:05
Yeah, Kenny Atkinson, there was a reason why he was so coveted as a, uh, head coach, and he ends up with Cleveland. Uh, real quick before we go, your favorite week 11 NFL play is? Oh, we're gonna get ugly here.
34:16
I have bet two games so far. I have taken the points with both the Las Vegas Raiders and the Dallas Cowboys. Ooh. Um, but I will say this about the Cowboys.
34:25
I do think that this offensive line really quickly for Houston is an issue. He, uh, uh, C.J. Stroud, the second-most pressured quarterback in the National Football League. It has failed.
34:33
There, there's been a reason why they've failed to cover a lot of these games, including the game that got Anthony Richardson benched. I think that's gonna be a pretty big problem.
34:39
I'm gonna give this one more shot for the Cowboys. Stay inside seven and a half at home against Houston. Yeah, that was one of the three that I liked on guessing lines.
34:45
I don't know if I have the, uh, the same bravery as you do. Yeah. Same courage, but that was one of the three. Uh, thank you, John. Appreciate it as always, man. Thanks a lot, guys.
34:53
Jonathan Von Tobel, @mejbt, our senior NBA analyst. Um, I hope you have Euro Cup. Uh, excuse me, Euro Cup. I hope you have, uh, NBA Cup fever like we do. I like the courts. I like the whole concept. Uh, we'll come back.
35:06
Jason Weingarten, all his bets right here on the Numbers Game with Beast, eSports Betting Network.
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