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Nov 15, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | November 15, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | November 15, 2024
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Transcript
0:00
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0:26
The numbers told the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Friday morning to you.
0:35
This is Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. For those who missed it, I am wishing you a good Friday morning. Not just a Friday morning. Uh, it's Gil Alexander.
0:47
It's Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Hey. My little buddy, Kelly Bidlin, is here as well. How you doing, man? Good, man. You good? How you doing? Huh? Yeah. Why, why are you...
0:54
You look so, you look so suspicious, like I was- [laughs] I'm great... It's a very sincere question. How are you doing? I'm, I'm, I'm doing great. How are you, Gil? You're like, "I don't know. Gil, how are you?"
1:01
I'm, I'm ready to go, man. Football Fridays. Uh, yeah. Football Fridays, Thalika, Fezzik, Dr. Bob, always the headlines on Friday, uh, for hour number two. Can't wait for that.
1:11
College pro college is how we do it, uh, hour number two. Before that, though, uh, don't tune or don't turn away yet. Uh, Jason Weingarten, uh, with all his bets from Under a Cloud of Smoke, UFC 309 with Jordan Sherwood.
1:24
You ready for some Jon Jones tomorrow? Big UFC, uh, card tomorrow night. The, uh, the, this little boxing match is, it feels like it's taking all the attention all of a sudden away.
1:33
There's a little, but there's a little thing tonight. Yeah, a little thing. On, on, uh- Some guy named Mike Tyson- Yeah... I believe is how you pronounce it. Yeah.
1:39
We should probably, uh, circle back to that here at some- Mm-hmm... point here in the, in the hour. Um, and of course, we'll do Are We Sure?
1:44
Are We Sure for week 11 in the National League, uh, National League, in the National Football League. Uh, estamos seguros, for those listening in Spanish. Uh, are we sure about certain things in the NFL?
1:54
Which means we b- we have to begin, we're contractually obligated to begin with last night's football game. Er, er, Philadelphia Eagles take down the Washington Commodores 26 to 18.
2:06
Uh, Washington is, and we have said this on this show, I have said this on the show now for four to six weeks, they are exactly who we thought they were, right?
2:14
They are a team that is capable of beating teams that are as good or lesser, but a step up in competition doesn't quite work out for them at this point yet.
2:24
That is why they, they couldn't at any point be power ranked higher than the bottom half, not only the bottom half, but about eighth at the most in the, uh, in the top 10 power rankings.
2:34
Um, now that didn't stop me from micro betting them last night, by the way, first quarter, first half game. Game didn't work out so well. When it got to four, I couldn't resist anymore.
2:42
Um- [laughs] Man, that was, that was surprising. I saw four and a half at one point. Yeah, it did get to four and a half at one point. Um, this is... Lis- listen, Eagles just a better football team.
2:51
They wore down Washington.
2:53
Here, uh, let, let's go back to this, 'cause everybody, you know, w- w- once the game is over, there's a certain, "Oh, Eagles won, Washington lost," and let's, let's say all the positive comments for Philly and all the negative ones for Washington.
3:03
There are plenty of negative ones for Washington to go around. But, um, there was a lot in here. For, for...
3:08
This, this game followed the same trajectory as that Philly-Cincinnati game a couple weeks ago, which is to say Cincinnati and Philly were tied through two and a half quarters of that game before Philly took over- Mm...
3:19
with a pick. There was a fumble. There was a stop on downs. Philly just wore them down in the same way that they wore Washington down yesterday.
3:26
I would argue that for two and a half quarters last night, the Washington defense might have been the best unit on the football field yesterday.
3:34
I had mentioned that last week, too, that everybody thinks the Washington defense sucks.
3:38
I- it's not the '85 Bears, don't get me wrong, but they don't suck, and they showed that for a long time before they got worn out yesterday, because then it was the Washington offense that was just so putrid.
3:48
The, the Philly defense took over, and the Washington defense was on the field for so long that I think they just got worn out of that football game.
3:55
But, you know, a- and people are gonna talk about Jake Elliott missed two field goals, and he missed an extra point. That is true as well. That muted the score. But there are, there are moments in the game that get lost.
4:04
Seven to nothing, Washington. There was a drive in the second quarter where you may remember Jayden Daniels threw to the feet of Noah Brown. Noah Brown was wide open inside the 30.
4:14
The subsequent play, uh, Austin Ekeler could have just walked to a first down. He just dropped the ball.
4:20
So there were moments like that also, right, which were self-inflicted, that were unforced errors by Washington as well. So let's, let's not erase that part of it.
4:28
Um, I will say this though, Jayden Daniels, worst game he's played. Mm-hmm. Philly, Philly deserves credit for that.
4:34
I don't know how much of that was game planned by Kliff Kingsbury, that, uh, Jayden Daniels couldn't, would not go downfield, or how much of it was that he just could not go downfield.
4:43
Terry McLaurin targeted twice in this game, only caught one pass. I believe only two, until that last drive, I think only two wide outs caught a football, only once each.
4:52
I think, uh, Dyami Brown with a four-yard, uh, completion at one point as well in that game. So absolutely, Philadelphia Eagles, better football team, wore 'em down.
5:03
Um, the Eagles just went to Saquon late and just destroyed Washington. But I, I do think, um, you know, is Washington therefore...
5:11
Though a lot of the, a lot of the, uh, armchair quarterbacking today is gonna be, "Oh, I don't know if they're a playoff team." Their schedule tells me they're a playoff team. Yeah. They have a very easy schedule.
5:19
They're gonna get some wins. They're gonna be a playoff team, unless they have a complete collapse here.
5:25
Um, the other thing is, uh, uh, as for the fourth and two, I'm gonna have to agree, for one of the rare times, I'm gonna have to agree with the brain-dead anti-analytics community, who always tells you when a fourth down doesn't work, but always, always, 100% of the time, fails to mention when it does work the bajillion times that it does.
5:43
But they were right about this one last night. Second in inches, you fail to get a first down. Third and one, you fail to get the f- uh, you actually get l- you lose yardage.
5:53
Fourth and two at that point, kick the field goal. Just kick the field goal and go up, right? And Washington didn't do that in a, uh- In a 12 to 10 football game, they couldn't get there. It was a bobbled snap.
6:03
The play was botched to begin with. Uh, and then it was, uh, Katie bar the door from that point on, Philly just rolling. Um, so I...
6:10
Listen, I think both teams are exactly who w- who they thought, who we thought they were.
6:14
Yeah, I was, uh, I was more okay with that fourth down decision than seemingly everybody else, uh, on Twitter [laughs] and everything. I don't think it was the worst one on planet Earth- [laughs]...
6:21
but I would have kicked at that point. It w- 'cause you had the evidence on second and third down. Yeah. You're like, "Okay, Jalen Carter is not gonna let you do anything here." Yeah, you, no, you did.
6:28
And obviously the, I mean, I, I don't, I don't even know if I like the play call. We didn't even get to see, [laughs] see it really play out. That's right. Rodney fumbled the snap. That's right.
6:35
But I don't even know if it... I think you, bringing up what they did on the earlier downs, I think that's why I can say I don't know if I really liked the play call.
6:42
I think you, you wanna get him out with a run pass option, I think, in that situation. But they've been so successful for it on fourth down all season.
6:48
Like, I understand if you're Dan Quinn in that, in that stat saying, "All right, like, I don't know if a field goal's gonna be good enough here to win this game. We gotta, uh, take the chance here."
6:55
I, I was kinda, I was sitting there on the couch saying, "I'd be kicking a field goal," but I don't have a problem with this right now.
7:01
Um, it was, it's one of those games that's, it's tough to look back, I think, from the Eagles' side of things afterward where, what do you take away from the Eagles?
7:08
I think that was, I, I think if I just saw the score this morning, I would say, okay, Eagles really starting to show that they are one of the better teams in the NFC.
7:17
And I don't know, after watching the whole game, I don't know if I can sit here today and say that. They had a great fourth quarter. Yeah. That's what I can tell you. They had an amazing fourth quarter.
7:24
That's what I'm just saying. I just think the, the, "Oh, they're so good, and the other team is so bad" narrative is just incorrect about how the football game went yesterday.
7:31
Now, in the end, are they the better football team? They are. Yeah. Listen, 435 to 264 in total yards, and even that was a bit cosmetically, um, you know, colored by the last Washington drive.
7:43
Can we speak about that last Washington drive, by the way? Sure, yeah. The lack of urgency down two sco- [laughs] two scores was also very odd. First of all, there's, there's a bunch of little signs, right?
7:53
So Jayden Daniels is a relaxed guy to begin with, but when I was watching the pregame and they had him and they took a shot of him in the, in the hole there before they went onto the field, and I'm like this is one of those things where, like, the relaxed look.
8:05
We used to say this about Robinson Cano in baseball.
8:07
Robinson Cano had this really, like, nonchalant way about him, and when things went well, when he's playing for the Yankees, right, and things went well, you're like, "Ah, look, he's so cool." Right.
8:15
[laughs] But when they don't, right, when you, when it, when they don't, the, it's very easy to turn on that kind of body language. So Jayden Daniels was, uh, his, his,
8:24
s- not his body language, but, like, his sort of nonchalance with the face before the game, I'm like, oh no, I don't know if he's, I don't know if this is gonna be a rough one or not. He, again, that was his worst game.
8:34
It, w- people can blame, we'll get to the Kliff Kingsbury stats again momentarily. People can blame the game plan. It was definitely Jayden Daniels' worst game. Oh, yeah. We, we talked- Definitely his worst game...
8:42
we talked about it yesterday. Yes. That is a, it's a lot to ask on any rookie quarterback. Yeah. Short week, going in to play the Eagles at night on Thursday night, like, that was gonna be the big test all along.
8:51
But there was a lot odd, right? Including that four, the fourth down call. But e- that last drive was weird, right? And it just, they were like, "Okay, well, you know, it is two scores. We'll see if we can just sorta..."
9:00
And they sh- they had the one shot of Dan Quinn getting, just losing his mind, like, "Let's go, let's go."
9:04
And by the way, I also didn't think that Al Michaels and K- uh, Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit properbl- properly, you know, conveyed how nonchalant it was- Yeah... until the very end.
9:16
Um, there was a lot weird with that, too. There was, you know, there was the, uh, the PI they called on Cooper DeJean on one of those where he yanked the shirt. Mm.
9:23
They, they mentioned that, but on the previous drive when Sanistral was called for a phantom illegal contact- Oh, yeah. Yep... they said nothing. They, like, said two words. They're like, "Oh, okay."
9:32
I'm like, uh, say something. It, it just didn't happen. That one was really annoying 'cause, like, that's one of those calls, like, okay, you could call that on almost every play in the NFL. Yeah.
9:39
Like, it, he's passing off the wide receiver, right? It's, I, I was, had a bigger problem [laughs] with the, the lack of urgency that you're talking about- Oh, yeah... than that fourth down call. Me too.
9:49
I was like, what, what are we doing here? Me too, actually. Yeah. Like, this is, you're still in a game. What, what is going on?
9:54
And the two-point conversion to Ertz, which I think Fezzik wants to talk about later on the show. [laughs] The two-point conversion on Ertz, I think they missed the point of the whole replay- Yeah...
10:02
which was he may not, he may have been bobbling the football. The whole time they're looking at the feet. So I'm just like, okay, they're, uh... It was just an off broadcast to me. I, I mean, I went, like...
10:10
It, it got so bad, Gil. Like, I, I went volume up on the Mavs game 'cause I was like, I don't know, Washington's just taking their sweet ass time. [laughs] Sweet ass time.
10:18
Like [laughs] By the way, here's the, uh, Kliff Kingsbury, uh, numbers again in case you missed this yesterday. This is a, uh, this is the thing about Kliff Kingsbury through the years.
10:25
Now, all the Texas Tech and Cardinals years you see at the bottom, those 10 years are Kliff Kingsbury as a head coach. Last year he was the senior offensive assistant at USC.
10:34
This year, of course, the OC with the Commodores. What you see on the left column is your first seven games, and look at that.
10:41
Uh, first seven games in, in those roles, his teams, Washington Commanders, USC, and the Cardinals and Texas Tech, 56, 27, and 1. First seven games collectively of all of those seasons.
10:55
And what, that's 12 seasons of football. After that, this is updated from last night, 22 and 59. It's crazy. It's so cra- I'm so glad you put this stuff together 'cause, like, you can hear this all you want- Yeah...
11:07
but once you see the numbers in your face- It's incredible... it's incredible. And I don't, like... I'll, I'll say what I said yesterday. I don't know that I'm running out to the, you know, fade the Commander's- Yes...
11:18
offense every week going forward, but there's something in there. It's pretty fa- I, I, I'm with you, Kelly. I'm with you exactly.
11:24
It's not, I don't know that it's actionable trigger a bet information, but it is, it is a little bit of, uh, put it in the, uh, put it in the, uh, the betting arsenal- Yeah... of things you're gonna pay attention to.
11:36
Yeah. You know? Sure is. I don't know if it, I don't know if it outweighs anything else, but it's something to keep in mind. Um, so there it is.
11:41
Eagles, by the way, so congratulations if you were on the Eagles last night for the game.
11:45
Uh, good on you despite the, uh, the number moving up as the Eagles wear down Washington and, and absolutely prove that they are still the best in the NFC East, that's for sure.
11:56
They'll get another shot, Washington will, at Philly a little later on in the season. Uh, we'll come back.
12:01
We'll talk about, uh, things we are or are not sure about in the NFL, a little segment we like to call Are We Sure?
12:08
That and some Tyson Paul talk From Teddy Atlas' perspective next on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:14
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12:31
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12:58
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13:07
Wanna give you those two are we sures real quick before we get to Jordan? The two remaining ones. Oh, sure. You got it. Are we sure? This is- Estamos seguros? This is kind of away from NFL. Yeah. Kind of. Oh, okay.
13:15
Are we sure- Yeah... we should not be betting Shedeur Sanders to be the number one pick? Well, we're not sh- sh- Should, should we be betting him right now? I know, it's so many double negatives. Yeah, yeah.
13:24
[laughs] There's a lot of double negatives. [laughs] Uh, we are sure that we are not sure. No. Um, I'm not sure that we shouldn't. Does that make sense? Yeah, yeah. Um- Like, he's over two to one right now...
13:33
especially everybody's conspiracy theory where it's like Cowboys- Yeah... fire McCarthy, hire Deion, Shedeur. I don't know, he might very well be the first pick. He might. I'm kinda, I'm kinda starting to think about it.
13:44
Yeah. Especially since, since, uh, there's some of these other quarterbacks, like Carson Beck, right? Like, he's falling off. Right. I, I don't know if he's right there. All right, NBA one for you.
13:52
Are we sure Wemby will be in the MVP hunt at the end of the season? I don't know about that. I don't know about that.
13:59
I think, you know, look, he's capable of that 50-point outburst that he had the other night, but I don't, I don't know that it's going to be consistent enough. You? I don't know either. Yeah.
14:05
That's why I wanted to ask the question. I don't think so. I'm really excited at the possibility, though. You have a ticket? Yeah, we both do, right? Isn't it, it's like our Bengals ticket. Yeah. From back in the day.
14:12
Didn't we bet it, like, as soon as it opened? [laughs] Yeah. We bet it as soon as it opened. I, I don't. I have a, I enjoy it.
14:16
It did go to, uh, you know, 150 to one to 50 to one real quick after that 50-burger the other night. Sure did, but I'm, I'm all about Steph at this point. All about Steph. Uh, it's a big combat sports weekend.
14:26
Let's talk some UFC 309 with Jordan Sherwood, who joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. He is, of course, the co-host of the Unnamed MMA Podcast. Uh, you can follow him on Twitter @WoodOnESPN1000.
14:39
Jordan, how you doing, man? I'm good. Yeah, like you said, it is a very interesting, almost DeLorean time machine- [laughs]...
14:47
uh, combat sports weekend with, uh, the Paul-Tyson fight and then UFC 309, uh, with Stipe Miocic and Jon Jones fighting for the heavyweight title.
14:55
Yeah, before we get to, uh, Jon Jones and Miocic, let, let's talk about real quick to see if you have any thoughts on Mike Tyson and Jake Paul. Do you? Yeah, I mean, look, it's gonna be a spectacle.
15:04
It's on Netflix, thankfully, so I, I will be watching if, if I'm awake, 'cause I don't know what time they're gonna head to the squared cir- circle.
15:12
Uh, if you're a fan of Mike Tyson, I, I probably wouldn't suggest watching. Uh, I think the likely two scenarios are either a knockout, uh, or a, uh, a split decision, controversial decision in Jake Paul's favor.
15:24
Uh, when I handicap mixed martial arts fights, you have to take in age gaps, uh, in- into account, and certainly when you're talking about three decades o- of a difference i- in boxing, I, I, I think you do as well.
15:37
So a- a- as much as I'd love to see Mike Tyson, uh, you know, go back to hi- his glory days and, and knock out Jake Paul, I don't, I don't see that scenario happening.
15:47
So I think it's Paul via KO or Paul via decision a- as the likely result. D- do we just live bet Paul after, like, round three? You know, like when, when, when Tyson tires about.
15:57
See, see- See, Gil's getting upset about that now. [laughs] See, I knew you were gonna bet this in the end. I knew you were gonna bet it. You can't resist. Um, you, I thought you weren't even gonna watch it.
16:04
I don't know that I will. I don't- Oh. But if I am- I'll totally watch it... I think I'm gonna live bet him after round two. Well, maybe I won't be able to resist either. We'll see.
16:10
Um, I just, I just don't wanna see Jordan, the only thing I don't wanna see, I don't wanna see Mike Tyson on his back from this. Like, I don't need that image. Yeah. I just don't need that image.
16:17
All right, let's get to UFC- Yeah, yeah. I was just gonna say, probably don't watch it then because- [laughs]... that, that could happen. Okay. [laughs] All right.
16:24
Uh, UFC 309, Jon Jones, as you said, the main event, Jon Jones, um, and, uh, Stipe Miocic. This is a, uh, J- Jon Jones, Miocic. Jon Jones a big favorite here, minus 625.
16:37
Um, Jon Jones, when last we saw him, uh, was taking down Ciryl Gane, but that was over a year ago, but he's had a year to prepare for this, right? And, um, Miocic, the thing with him is great career.
16:51
I think most people remember, and maybe this feeds into this line being so lopsided, most people remember him losing to Ngannou, I suppose, but before that, he was awesome. How are you betting this?
17:00
Pretty interesting fight. Yeah, yeah. I mean, look, it should have happened years ago.
17:04
Uh, it was booked for March, uh, but, you know, Jon Jones suffered an injury, so, you know, it's, it's over a year since he competed, but it's been over four years, uh, since we last saw Stipe Miocic i- inside the octagon.
17:16
And granted, yeah, Miocic is a future Hall of Famer, probably considered the greatest heavyweight champion of all time.
17:22
But what is he gonna look now, like, at, at 42 years of age, uh, against Jon Jones, who, you know, look, looked brilliant, as you alluded to in his, uh, heavyweight debut.
17:31
He's now had a year and a half to get adjusted to fighting at, at, at that weight class and not at 205, and it's just a difficult matchup for Stipe Miocic.
17:39
He's gonna have to negotiate the distance 'cause Jon Jones has that unbelievable reach, so Stipe's gonna have to sit in the pocket.
17:47
Uh, Stipe has always relied on his wrestling, uh, during his career and his, you know, becoming the heavyweight champion. Uh, he, Jones is a better wrestler than, than him, and I think can utilize that.
17:58
So, uh, I agree with the odds. Uh, they're completely lopsided.
18:02
I do expect Jon Jones to, to completely run through Stipe Miocic 'cause I don't, I don't see a, an opportunity where Stipe's gonna be able to land one of his, hi- his strong power punches a- and cause Jon Jones some issues, 'cause Jon Jones has never been touched throughout his entire mixed martial arts career.
18:18
So here's, here's the play. I think at some point, Jon Jones goes to his wrestling And gets Stipe on his back a- and locks in a submission.
18:28
The price is high on that because Miocic has never been submitted in his mixed martial arts career. He's only been knocked out.
18:34
But I think Jon Jones has relied on submissions, relied on his grappling, so, uh, at that price point, which I've seen it anywhere between, like, plus 250 or plus even 400, I think that's the, that's the likelihood result that you have to play.
18:48
Okay. Jon Jones via submission, and there's no doubt Jon Jones, correct me if I'm wrong, best pound for pound fighter in the history of UFC, yes? Yeah.
18:55
Look, the only blemish on his career is what he, what's happened outside the cage.
18:59
Uh, I mean, yeah, he, he had a loss, a DQ loss early in his career, which has now been kind of, uh, retracted 'cause they now allow the 12 to six elbows.
19:08
Uh, and I hope, I hope Jon Jones looks brilliant and I hope he has the itch to fight one more time, because Tom Aspinall, the interim heavyweight champion, that's the fight most fa- fight fans wanna see, and hopefully we get it.
19:18
Uh, if they pay Jon Jones enough money, I think he'll step in the cage and fight Aspinall. All right. Co-main, Charles Oliveira, Michael Chandler. Oliveira a minus 245 favorite here. Uh, they fought before.
19:30
Oliveira stopped Chandler early second round. Now Chandler's older, uh, still giving away reach, still giving away height. How is this gonna be any different? I- i- it's not.
19:41
I, I see Charles Oliveira probably having a Charles Oliveira fight, where he likely gets dropped in the first round, looks like he's gonna get put out of there, and then recovers and, and finishes Michael Chandler.
19:53
Uh, you gotta remember, Chandler's been preparing for a fight with Conor McGregor at welterweight, uh, for the last two years.
19:58
That fight never came about, and now he's fighting at lightweight against a guy that finished him. Charles Oliveira looked great in his last two fights even though one of them was a loss.
20:08
And Michael Chandler, despite his career and being at the, you know, at the top of the marquee, and a, a former champion in other, uh, you know, promotions, gets hit a lot.
20:17
And, uh, he has some of the worst defense we've ever seen in mixed martial arts. Oliveira's gonna land something.
20:22
So, you know, look, I, I think you gotta get that price point down to about minus 200 for Oliveira inside the distance. Uh, and I see a submission happening as well, so there's plus money there. Oliveira wins the fight.
20:34
Uh, and, and as Kelly was talking about betting it live, uh, with us off the, off the air, uh, the, uh, Paul-Tyson fight, maybe bet this live, 'cause I think Oliveira maybe loses the first round and then bounces back and gets the finish.
20:44
I'm no UFC expert, but gets hit a lot doesn't seem like an optimal strategy. It's not a good strategy. Not a good- No... not a good strategy to lead with your face. No. No. Not a good strategy.
20:52
Uh, Bo Nickal also on the, uh, on the main card. He is a prohibitive favorite against Paul Craig. Bo Nickal a 6 and 0 lifetime. How are you choosing to bet this?
21:03
Yeah, I, I think Bo Nickal wins this fight in the first round.
21:06
Uh, Paul Craig, you know, likes to be put on his back 'cause he relies on his submission game, and Bo Nickal, that's where he shines, is in top mount position.
21:16
So either Bo Nickal is gonna get a quick knockout on the feet, uh, 'cause Paul Craig also leaky defense, or, uh, he's gonna be able to get on top, feel comfortable in Paul Craig's guard, uh, and get the, the TKO finish.
21:29
Bo Nickal is special. He's a guy that many people have pegged to be fighting for a middleweight championship very soon in his mixed martial arts career.
21:37
This is a showcase fight for him on, uh, the marquee at Madison Square Garden before the, the two big m- uh, you know, co-main and main event fights. So I think Bo Nickal wins this fight and wins it early in round one.
21:47
You get it at plus money. Okay. Give us one on the preliminary card if you would, Jordan. Yeah, you see it on the screen.
21:52
Eric Anders, I think is, you know, I think he's the, the, should be the big favorite against Chris Weidman, the former middleweight champion of the world. Weidman hasn't been the same.
22:00
He's at 40 years of age as well, hasn't looked good since he broke his leg two fights ago. I don't think he's gonna be able to utilize his kickboxing or his wrestling, uh, to control Anders. Bigger guy in the cage.
22:11
So Eric Anders at $1.20 price, uh, would be the direction I would recommend. Okay. Jon Jones via submission from Jordan at four to one odds. Always shop around for the best price.
22:22
Uh, Charles Oliveira, how are you doing with that one again? You are going? Yeah, I think it's, I, I think to get it on- Inside the distance...
22:28
inside the distance only is minus 200, but submission prop, uh, if you want some plus money, uh, I, I've seen it out there at some good value, so Charles Oliveira via submission. All right.
22:37
Bo Nickal in the, in, uh, round one at plus 110, and then Eric Anders on the prelims. Taking Eric Anders on the money line at minus 120, uh, going up against Chris Weidman. Thank you, Jordan. Appreciate it as always.
22:48
Enjoy the weekend, including the fight tonight, man. Let's go. All right. Thanks for having me, guys. Always a pleasure. Jordan Sherwood, everybody, uh, courtesy of the Progressive guest line.
22:57
UFC 309 tomorrow night after, of course, the, uh, Tyson-Paul fight tonight, so a big combat sports weekend. You can follow Jordan, by the way, again, @woodonESPN1000.
23:09
Jason Weingarten warming up the Football Friday talk next on the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do.
23:24
If you're one of those idiots who believe in analytics- This is the Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:33
VSIN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Pick any of those. Just appreciate you allowing us to be part of your morning each and every morning right here on the Numbers Game.
23:42
Uh, this is the hour you've all been waiting for, Falica, Fezzik, and Dr. Bob standing by, ready to do their thing. Matter of fact, let's not have them stand by anymore, Kelly, shall we? Let's not. Let's do this.
23:53
Chris Falica joins us courtesy of the Progressive guest line. You may know him as The Bear, El Oso, from Fox Sports. You can follow him on Twitter @ChrisFalica, F-A-L-L-I-C-A. How you doing, Christopher?
24:05
What's happening? We gotta get, we gotta get this hour pr- sponsored by the Legends Club. [laughs] Or something. The Legends whatever you could think of. That's the name, the Legends. Or, or a hotel chain.
24:15
C- c- could I start with my, with my favorite question? Please. Chris, where are you staying this week? Oh, yeah. Beautiful, beautiful hotel. Uh, the Renaissance. Oh.
24:23
So, okay- Re- Rena- Renaissance Boulder in the Flatiron A very, very comfortable accommodations this week out in Colorado. In honor of my, uh, backup quarterback rankings, could you... Someone asked this of you.
24:34
Could you rank, uh, discount hotels one through five for us- We gotta do a full podcast on this... that you've stayed in? Oh, can I, can I, can I, can I come back to that on that? Sure, you can.
24:43
I, I don't, I don't wanna waste time while I rattle my brain through and- Okay... think about it. All right. Please take all the time you n- [clears throat] Take all the time you need on that. Um- I will.
24:53
Next week, I promise... I'm contractually obligated to ask this. I know it's the second time I've used that phrase today, but Tyson, Paul, are you doing anything with this? No. Okay.
25:00
That's [laughs] There's no chance this fight isn't rigged, right? [laughs] No, I don't think there is. [laughs] I don't think there is at all. Um, you know, Jason Leyva, though, Jamie Leyva, pardon me, he's...
25:10
This is, again, people's thoughts are, are reflected well in these tweets. He says, "I agree with everything you guys said about the Tyson fight. However,"
25:17
however he spells it, "if there ever was a boxer to go off script, it would be Mike. I will definitely be watching. Who doesn't want to see Paul get knocked out? Have a Mc- But, but that's the thing.
25:25
We a- we all grew up, uh, ga- Yeah... getting together in the late '80s and, and such like it was ga- wa- how quickly is Mike Tyson gonna, gonna pummel Marvis Frazier into the ground? And, a- and, and that was like a...
25:37
That, that's what we wanna see. We wanna bring back those memories of, of happiness and seeing Mike Tyson, uh, the, the most feared man on the, on the planet, uh, at that time. But, but is that gonna happen?
25:47
Probably not. Marvis Frazier, I believe, was 29 seconds. Don't hold me to that. Something like that, yeah. Michael Spinks was 91 seconds. Don't hold me to that. Something like that.
25:55
Uh, okay, let's get to college football. You, uh, through texts this week, you had some very interesting thoughts that have led to some very interesting bets. The floor is yours, sir. Yeah.
26:05
I- if you look at the SEC, it- it's a really ri- I don't wanna say ridiculous, but th- there are gonna be, um, a bunch of tiebreakers that come into play here.
26:13
And I think ultimately what's gonna happen is you're gonna get the winner of Texas, Texas A&M, taking on either Alabama or LSU. And I think Alabama should beat Oklahoma, Alabama should beat Auburn.
26:27
I think th- each of those teams are one in five in the SEC. And then you probably, you'll, you're looking at Alabama versus the winner of, of Texas, Texas A&M.
26:35
You can get Alabama still around four to one or so to win the SEC title.
26:39
I think that's a, a really good bet being that under these scen- I, I think a lot of this also assumes Georgia as a 10-point favorite beat Tennessee tomorrow, which is a likely case.
26:51
Uh, but, but then the way the tiebreak's probably gonna break down, you're gonna see Alabama in that game. And four to one I think is a really good bet there.
26:57
Uh, four 20 was what I saw them at, uh, at Fanduel a couple of days ago. I don't know what it's moved to now.
27:03
And then yesterday I bet, as a result of that kind of correlated, uh, Jalen Milroe at 23 to one to win the Heisman, 'cause I think if you do get Alabama in that game, and they do win the SEC title, uh, you have to, I don't wanna say assume, but say Colorado, who I have a Travis Hunter ticket, of course, there's a little bit of a hedge against that.
27:23
Uh, say Colorado loses a game and doesn't get to the Big 12 championship game. Uh, say Oregon gets to the Big 10 championship game and loses.
27:32
Uh, say there's a gr- a block of people out there that still don't really believe that a Mountain West running back is the best running, uh, the best football player in the country.
27:41
Uh, you look at a, a quarterback of an SEC champion team at 23 to one. I d- I, I've certainly made stupider and worse bets than that. Yeah.
27:49
Um, I just grabbed some Jalen Milroe at fif- at, uh, 25 to one back here at Circa before the show, as a matter of fact. Who on that board... Let's ask it this way. You may have already answered it.
27:57
[clears throat] Uh, but who on that Heisman board, Travis Hunter at even money, Dillon Gabriel at, uh, plus 350. There is Ashton Gentry at four to one, Cam Ward at seven to one.
28:06
Um, those are the only folks in single digits- Mm-hmm... before you get to, uh, Curtis Rourke on down. Who's the one that absolutely will not be winning this? Like who are the ones you can just throw out?
28:16
Uh, Curtis Rourke i- isn't gonna win. Uh, I, I mean, w- with the schedule that he's played, like
28:24
unless you think they, unless you think they're gonna beat Ohio State and beat, and beat, uh, Oregon in the Big 10 championship game, I, I don't...
28:30
The, shoot, the Moneyline parlay on that is probably just as n- uh, b- a big of a, big of a roll of risk.
28:36
Uh, Ohio State or Indiana on the Moneyline next week, Indiana on the Moneyline in the Big 10 championship game, you're probably getting close to that, that number anyway. Uh, I don't think,
28:47
I don't think any of the guys below Gentry can win. Like I, I still don't think Gentry can win. I was just- But I, I don't think any of those guys in double digits really have a- I was-...
28:55
realistic price outside of my thought process on Jalen Milroe. I was about to say, it sounds- [clears throat]... like you softened your stance on Gentry a little bit there, though.
29:04
Like you're opening the door a little bit for him.
29:06
Well, I, I think if you l- if you o- play out the scenario that I, that I played out and maybe Alabama doesn't win and every- everything happens then it's like, oh, maybe,
29:16
okay, he ran for however many yards, Boise's going to the College Football Playoff, maybe, uh, it's just kind of this default award. But I still don't think that's gonna happen.
29:24
I think, I think, uh, in realist, in, in real world, I think we've ultimately narrowed it down to two, Travis Hunter and Dillon Gabriel.
29:32
And my flyer on Milroe probably won't win, but, but like I said, I, I think it does, uh, have a chance if things get a little, uh, crazy here in the last couple weeks of the season. Okay. College football this weekend.
29:42
Where are you gonna be, by the way, with big noon Saturday? Uh, we're at, we're in Boulder, we're in Colorado before the, uh, the, the Colorado-Utah game.
29:48
And, uh, it, it, it's interesting because I, I was listening to Jason as well, and the, the, the number's crazy.
29:55
It, it, it's drifted up into double digits, and you gotta go back a long ways to find the time, last time that Utah were a double-digit favorite.
30:02
It, it's funny, you hear the, the stories this week about the, the Utah football building for people who have been there a while and around the program. They said they have not seen that building in as, uh,
30:13
despondent of a mood a- as they were on Monday morning. So who knows if they come out of that.
30:18
Uh, the one thing I will say for, for, for Jason is, uh, the best thing for Utah is they're as healthy as they've been in the front seven, uh, all year long, so that should probably give them a, a decent chance of slowing down the, uh, the Colorado attack.
30:31
But yeah, I'm, I'm with him. I certainly couldn't lay- A double digit here with Colorado. All right, let's hear them, and please don't say Kansas. That's all I'm asking. Please don't say Kansas.
30:39
No, I'm not gonna say Kansas. Okay. [laughs] Thank you. I'm not, I'm not... I, I don't wanna do that to you. [laughs] Uh, and I don't, I don't wanna put through Jake- Jake Retzlaff hate there. Thank you.
30:47
But, uh, I did, I, I did have, uh, Utah last week though. Uh, I played Washington tonight minus three and a half. It's up to four. I, I wouldn't go higher than four.
30:56
I think it's moving towards four and a half, but UW has been a much different team, uh, at home this year. Will Rogers is going to play.
31:04
I see, I see you're showing four and a half at Circa now, so, uh, yeah, I, I, I think there are still some fours out there you can find.
31:10
Uh, UCLA amazingly owned the line of scrimmage last ye- last week running the ball against Iowa, who wind up, uh, having to play a converted linebacker as a backup quarterback and in that game.
31:22
I don't think they're gonna be as fortunate tonight. And so I, I, I would still lay four with Washington. Uh, I took 14 with Wisconsin against Oregon, uh, solely because- Hmm... you...
31:35
Wisconsin looked so bad the last time they played, and I know they've been blown out by two top 10 teams on their home field, and I don't think they're necessarily that good.
31:44
But Oregon, you kinda get this vibe, like they played great, uh, ever since that Ohio State game. At some point, I think they just might h- have like a go through the motions kinda game, and maybe that's good enough.
31:55
Look, th- this isn't a situation where Oregon in, in the BCS or a four team playoff needs to go out and put up a big number for style point. They know they beat Wisconsin, they, they beat Washington, they win the Big...
32:08
They, they're in the playoff and they're number, they're, they're the number one seed.
32:11
So it's about, I think, kinda just managing the game, managing workload, and m- and making sure you don't get Dillon Gabriel or Burch or anyone else, uh, injured come second half.
32:21
So I, uh, I played, uh, Wisconsin plus 14, and I played San Jose State plus 14 against Boise. Uh, but I don't think this is gonna be a, a, a gimme game for Boise.
32:30
You look at, uh, the couple of games Boise's had on the road this year in Mountain West play. Uh, they were life and death at UNLV who's a good team.
32:37
Uh, they went to Hawaii, and that was a six-point game i- in the fourth quarter. Last week they didn't really even look great, uh, against Nevada. Uh, Nick Nash is one of the best wide receivers in the country.
32:47
Uh, I think San Jose State and that offense can put up points here. Uh, their rush defense is not terrible. So I, I think 14's a lot here. I, I took, I took the, uh, the Spartans here plus the points. And I played a, uh,
33:00
a Missouri team total under 14 and a half. Uh, but I, I think Missouri is the biggest fraud in the country. Somehow they're 3-2 in SEC play, and they probably should be 5-0.
33:10
Uh, you beat Vanderbilt in double overtime on your home field. You scored a touchdown with 46 seconds left to beat Auburn on your home field.
33:17
You scored two touchdowns in the final minute to beat Oklahoma on your home field. Those two teams, like I said, 1-5 in SEC play. All three of those games, uh, were in Columbia.
33:26
Now you're on the road with Drew Pine most likely at quarterback a- against a really good front. And you talk about a season of what could have been. South Carolina I think is like, uh, the perfect example of that.
33:37
They easily could be 8-1, kinda gave away a game against LSU early in the year. Uh, very possibly could have beaten Alabama, uh, in Tuscaloosa.
33:46
So South Carolina, one of those teams six and three, but much better, uh, than what their record indicates. Wow. Chris Fallica [clears throat] calling the Harvard of Boone County the biggest frauds in college football.
33:56
Tell, uh, Parls- I, I'm, I'm sorry, don't, don't, don't, don't, uh... Have we said... Don't tell the Grover Cleveland of, uh- [laughs] I was about to say... producer of Ben Wilson about that.
34:03
Parls and Wilson, shots fired. Yeah. Tell them. Elliot Bowman too. He had to correct my English earlier- Oh, yep... today before the show. Elliot too. Yeah. Yeah. Wow. Um, uh, real quick, rapid fire.
34:12
Uh, will there be a three-loss team in the playoff ultimately? [sighs] I'm gonna say no. Gonna say no. Ju- ju... And I'm only- Hmm...
34:19
I'm basing that on how the committee ranked the basically loss ordered teams this week. I'm gonna say no. I'm gonna say no, no, no three-loss team. I fear yes. That is my stance currently.
34:29
Uh, and then fi- Okay, we'll see. And then your finally, your, uh, your favorite NFL play of the week is? Uh, it was Philadelphia last night- It's time...
34:36
but I'm gonna get sucked, I'm gonna get sucked into the Bengals again, and I hate myself for it, but I, but I'm gonna do it. Y- you look at the quarterbacks that the Chargers have beaten this year.
34:46
Minshew, Bryce Young, Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston, Willie Levis. Next four games, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Patrick Mahomes.
34:55
I- is, is it time to, to, to bet an alt win total maybe on the, uh, on the Chargers going under or maybe bet against the Chargers? I think it starts on Sunday. And just to clarify, Chris said he was sucked into it.
35:05
Just wanna make sure everybody heard that. [laughs] Thank you, Chris. Yes. Appreciate it. Correct. Fezzik is- Take care, guys... Fezzik is next for me. [upbeat music]
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