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Nov 1, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | November 1, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | November 1, 2024
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35:03
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Transcript
0:00
Betting on sports can be hard, but hiring Morgan & Morgan is easy. Morgan & Morgan is America's largest injury law firm. They have over 100 offices nationwide and more than 1,000 lawyers.
0:10
Their fee is free unless they win. For more information, go to forthepeople.com/bestbets or dial pound law, pound 529 from your cellphone. That's F-O-Rthepeople.com/bestbets. This is a paid advertisement.
0:24
[upbeat rock music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Friday edition of A Numbers Game here on VSiN.
0:39
Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. Worry not, Gil will be back in on Monday. Thank you for being here and allowing me in this seat for the last five days. Kelly Biblin alongside. Great show. We're gonna talk some soccer.
0:52
Well, actually, Paul Carr's gonna talk some soccer. I'm gonna ask some questions. [laughs] I took a few notes. And, uh, that's basically how we're gonna go with that. And then I'll- Yeah, good. There we go.
0:58
Yeah, and then we'll talk some horse racing with Chris Felike, and if we have some time after that, get his college football thoughts as well.
1:04
And we will run through each and every NFL game, give you our thoughts on bets we have in the account, some leans we might have, any games that we absolutely hate along the way. That's right. Absolutely.
1:14
I, I'm also enjoying the idea of you ta- you taking the vast majority of the segment up with Chris to talk Breeders' Cup. I ha- I'm pretty certain we're gonna get more college football in than, uh, matches to, uh, tease.
1:23
[laughs] Listen, look, we- Kelly's like, "Well, I don't know if we'll have enough time. I've got so many Breeders' Cup questions."
1:29
Look, we talked, we, we talked to Simich yesterday for at least three-quarters of a segment about- Bet it. I mean, these, these dudes are passionate. That's, that's true.
1:38
If he's betting multiple races, then it's kinda like he's gotta talk about multiple horses per race. We don't, we don't know how long this could go. That's a good point.
1:45
Mike went a little bit longer yesterday than I thought I was thinking. Yeah, because there were three different races, and then you're talking about multiple horses throughout those three different races.
1:52
Yeah, you're right. You're right. You're right. This is over this way. I'm just saying there are a lot of people out there who are excited about the Breeders' Cup this week, and we're going to give them- Let's go.
1:58
This was asked for by the people. That's true, was asked for by the people. We got it booked. We even got a VSiN betting guide out for the Be- Breeders' Cup. Oh. [laughs] So go check that out now right now.
2:07
Okay, come on. Head on over to vsin.com and get that Breeders' Guide betting, uh, Breeders' Cup betting- Breeders' Cup betting guide... betting guide that obviously I've read already.
2:14
[laughs] 'Cause you can tell right there that I've read it already. I mean, Kelly, we're coming off of a game last night. Uh, coming here, we are, we are, if we, if anything, we're but honest and transparent.
2:24
Uh, I get the underhome, lose on the Texans, and I gotta admit, coming out of this one- Well-... I don't really feel bad about the bet all that much.
2:35
Um, I guess the only thing that I do feel bad about in coming out of this one is I guess I didn't really... And I, I was texting you during the game. Mm-hmm.
2:45
Is I guess I really didn't factor in what seems to be a little bit of the sophomore slump and regression for C.J. Stroud as much as maybe I should have, but it was very apparent last night.
2:57
Sure, the offensive line was letting these guys through, but it was the decision-making when he was getting pressured and the things he was doing when he was getting pressured that was really concerning to me, and it was on five different occasions, he just started running backwards- Yeah...
3:10
which is a horrible thing to do, which led to a longer field goal that ends up getting missed on one of those third downs in which, again, he gets pressured. And instead of just, "Okay, you know what?
3:19
Nothing's gonna happen on this play," or trying to step up and see if anything, he starts running backwards and ends up losing another eight, nine, 10, 11 yards here and there along the way.
3:28
A- and then also, you know, I guess for me that I didn't, I, I really came across... Yeah, I get it, guys. I understand. He was under duress and sacked eight times, all those things.
3:38
There were throws to be made in this game, and C.J. Stroud did not make those throws. Oh, he missed them. Yeah. Like- The throws that we've... I- I mean- Yeah...
3:44
this is where, yes, I know we wanna talk about a sophomore slump. He's still young. He's still gonna develop. But man, I hold him in such high regard already that, like, those are throws that I've seen him make.
3:53
I saw him make all last year- Mm... i- in route to a great Rookie of the Year campaign. Um, I think, I think what you're talking...
3:59
It's a mix of offensive line and him as seeming to not be able to handle the pressure all that well, and it's... I mean, even, even the number of carries, eight carries last night. Mm.
4:07
That's more than he's ever had in his NFL career. Yeah. Just check that real quick. That is two more than he's ever had in his NFL career, so even...
4:12
You know with these quarterbacks, they start feeling that pressure when z- as it, as it adds up throughout the game. It's, "Okay, now I'm seeing a guy break through.
4:19
I gotta k- you know, d- you know, get off this one read and just take off." [laughs] And that was what a little bit more was happening last night, too. Uh, but yeah, y- you're right.
4:28
We didn't, uh, we haven't factored in that well, and I don't know what to make of this team, you know, when we look ahead- Yeah... when they're supposed to get a lot more healthy.
4:34
I mean, couple of missed field goals as well. The, uh- No, by him. Yeah, couple of missed field goals. Then you also have the, the... A- and again, this, this is not just a pile-ons on s- on C.J. Stroud show.
4:45
What I will say, 11 of 30, 191 yard, misses Metchie wide open. Wide open. Wide open, would've moonwalked into the end zone. Just a bunch of misses from C.J. Stroud that ended up making a difference in this game.
4:59
Now, sure, were they fortunate that you get... [laughs] What is up with these... We see this t- we see this at least two or three times a year. Why, why do people not want to carry the ball across the goal line?
5:08
[laughs] What is, what is- [laughs] No idea. No idea. What is, [laughs] what is it with... Like, you see Malachi Corley, if you...
5:15
Certainly you've seen it by now, but, like, Malachi Corley gets to the goal line, ends up dropping it before he crosses the goal line. The ball just slowly rolls out the back of the end zone.
5:23
It ends up being a touchback. We see this two or three times a year, and every single time I'm going, most times people cannot wait to celebrate. They want to over celebrate. Yeah. They've got something already planned.
5:35
They've been... I mean, literally before the game starts, they're going, "If I score, I'm gonna do this," or whatever. But that's the problem. He's already thinking about that, right?
5:42
He's thinking about that before he's fully into the end zone. That's why it happens. I mean, I just... Again, we see this multiple times a year. And every s- It's, it's wild...
5:50
and every single time we go, "Dude You just hold onto the ball for one more step. Is that like a flex or something, that you just drop it the second you cross the goal line?
5:58
Uh- Is that, like, is that kind of what that is?... I think it, I think it maybe kind of used to be, actually, and that's how some of this started. But, like- Yeah...
6:03
we, uh, to your, to your point, it's crazy, so I've got, I've gotten so used to it now. We see it so often. I don't know about you, my mind immediately went to, I was like, "Okay, they're gonna go review this.
6:13
I, I'm pretty sure he dropped the ball early." Mm. Like, "Okay, let me get the replay, but I'm pretty sure in real time he dropped it early, it was not across the goal line.
6:21
But do we have a camera angle of where the ball went," right? Mm. And then it was very impressive that they did, to me. I was like, oh- Yeah...
6:27
that, good, that camera guy down on the other end zone ha- well, you know, had it- Yeah... tightened up enough that he got, actually got it rolling out the back.
6:33
And it did, I mean, it took, like, a full five minutes for the ball to roll out the back, too. Right, yeah. It just, it was like slow.
6:39
I mean, it just, it was just slowly going and going, and then finally makes it out the back. And
6:43
I, we can't go without saying, what happened last night in, with, with Garrett Wilson was a huge, massive, massive turning point in this game.
6:52
And when I say what happened, not only the catch, but we also get the phantom, uh, I mean, i- in my opinion, and according to the broadcasters as well, and several of the people on- online, you get the f- the phantom illegal contact called on Stingley, which that was a fourth and one.
7:08
It would've been a turnover on downs. The Texans would've gotten the ball back with the lead- Yeah... at 13 to 10. Th- so it was just a massive, massive difference in this game. And, uh, I should say at 10 to seven.
7:20
And, um, it was a massive difference in this game, and so they replay it multiple different times.
7:25
You can have your hands on the player for five yards, and it was about four yards when Stingley had his hands all over him, and then after that, it seemed pretty clean after that.
7:33
Instead, they get an automatic first down, and then turn what was a, would've been a turnover on downs into one of the better catches, basically, we've ever seen in the NFL.
7:43
Yeah, real quick, I'm not, I don't know if I'm going there yet. Like, hey, I feel like we're doing a lot of that this morning. We're like, "This is the best catch I've ever..." It was really good. I've seen better.
7:50
I said one of the best. [laughs] One, one, one of the best. One of the, one of the better. No, it, that part was huge. I think just going back to the first half real quick, too.
7:56
It did, it felt like going into halftime, even, that the Texans, it had not done enough to kind of put this game away, when the Jets- Yeah...
8:04
all they had done in the first half was shoot themselves in the foot over and over again, right? We talked, we talked about Corlew dropping the ball early before scoring. But nothing else was working, either. Yeah.
8:13
And, and that rest of that half, the Jets were a disaster, got new life in the second half because of this stuff. And yeah, go on to win that ballgame.
8:20
Yeah, nobody cares about in-game bets, but I think it is important to kind of bring up, since we are talking about, like, you know, how you go about betting and trying to be a bettor bettor, Kelly, is just... So
8:30
I threw, I threw some quick money in, quick on the trigger, on the Jets when it looked like... I, I mean, I guess he was just hamming it up, but it looked like a serious injury for Stroud, right? Yeah.
8:40
Like, he steps up in the pocket. Something like, it looked... A- again, in real time, it looked like something happened to his ankle, foot, back of the heel, whatever it was or something.
8:48
Then he's laying face down on the, on the turf for, like, a while, right, and not getting up.
8:54
And then the, and, you know, you're sitting there and you get Kirk Cousins, you go like, "Oh, no, Stroud down, ball on," something like that. I'm breaking my fingers to try to get...
9:00
[laughs] Because, like, the way they were playing anyway, I was like, "Okay, this game is over. Jets are winning this game for sure," you know? Yeah. And then, and then he ends up coming back in, you know.
9:09
Um, but- Those are tough, because I was, I think I was in the same mode, and this... You're right. Yeah. Maybe this is good to talk about from a betting standpoint. I don't... Not all these are created equal, right?
9:18
Yeah. They're not all the same. For me, that was one of those, okay, like, I had the app pulled up, app pulled up. That, that's probably something you should always do. Yeah. Right? At least pull up the apps.
9:26
You don't need to make a bet, but pull up, pull up the apps, make sure you're ready to go. I was waiting. I was like, "Okay, let me give it a minute. Let me give it a minute. Let me see how he walks off the field-" Mm...
9:34
right, and how he reacts. Once he kind of had gotten up and gotten off the field, I, I, I put the phone down. I didn't think it was that big of a deal. I still, like- Yeah... I had the teaser. You had it.
9:42
You were catching too. Um, so was okay with it, but yeah, I hear you. It was- I was terrified, mainly because I didn't like the bet anyway once the g- the way that the game was playing out- Yeah...
9:51
and how poorly he was playing. And then I'm like, "Oh, they're going to Davis Mills? Well, this game is definitely going to be over." Let's go to the Jets side of things real quick.
9:58
I mean, look, they moved to three and six. Aaron Rodgers does score, you know, multiple touchdowns in the second half. It looks a little bit better. The offense looks a little bit better.
10:05
He hits Davante Adams on what was basically the dagger touchdown there at the end of the game. Everyone's talking, saying, they, you know, again, Kirk Cousins, saying, "That's what we're talking about. That's the timing.
10:15
That's these guys," and whatever. Did you take anything away from the Jets here in this one? [sighs] Yes and no. I, I mean, this is... Okay, great.
10:26
They were not handed the game, I will say this, but, like, they were, there were fortunate events in that game. I ju- I just don't know of...
10:32
It, it's kind of the split of, oh, boy, the Jets look a whole lot better, or, like, for, during portions of that second half at least. Mm. You could say, "Oh, the Jets look a whole lot better," right?
10:39
Or you could just say this is how they're supposed to look with these star players that they brought in. I mean, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson having big games should not be a surprise. This is what should happen.
10:48
Mm-hmm. Um, now, can they do that consistently? Because they haven't done it yet. If they can turn this into a consistent factor where these wide receivers- Yeah...
10:56
are actually having this big at games, it opens things up for Breece Hall on the ground. Yeah, this could turn into a different offense. I just, I need to see more of it before I start believing in this team again.
11:05
So Aaron, Aaron Rodgers throws the ball 32 times. 22 of those times went to either Adams or Wilson- [laughs] Yeah... in this game. And, like, that's probably the best strategy, though. You know? I mean, I get it.
11:15
Lazard wasn't even in there. Lo- Lazard was inactive. But it's probably the best strategy. Like, just throw it, just throw it to your two dudes who are awesome, and just l- make them make plays. Yeah. They're great.
11:25
Uh, and w- what's gonna happen with Mike Williams? Like, what is the story? I mean, it's- He, they're gonna ship him out of town. I would think so too, but like- Yeah... I, I can't believe it hasn't happened already.
11:32
Yeah. They're gonna ship him out of town. He didn't play a ton of snaps last night e- either. I think they were making sure that he didn't get injured in this one, so that they did have a piece to, to move.
11:42
But the end of the day, so Jets- Like, I don't get that, though. Just don't play him then, right? If you're gonna move him- Yeah... don't play him. You don't want him to get hurt.
11:48
Well, it's a little bit of a showcase, you know, as they say- Well, then you gotta play him more... and all of that. Yeah. Uh, e- at the end of the day, the Jets cover all numbers.
11:56
The under gets home in this one, and of course overs on Adams, Wilson, Tank Dell, everything like that.
12:02
When we come back, hit some news items, look at the NBA, and then we'll get into our Mark, Steve, Bourbon Play of the Week.
12:12
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:29
Numbers Game here on a Friday, ready to talk some NFL, maybe get some bets into the account. Got a few. Got a few that I'm feeling good about. Yesterday we sat here, though, we were...
12:39
We, early in the week we ranked our teams. Yesterday, everyone on the face of the planet ranked their candies. Yep. You came in- It was a big handout... with some, with some fairly strong takes.
12:47
Look, look, because, because I like you. Oh, what a guy. Look, look what I've done. Look what I did. Why, did you really, did you really have those hidden over there for a- Look, look what I've done.
12:55
Since you said you like all things Reese's- The pumpkins are delicious... so, I, so, so- Pumpkins are great... I, that's, these are, this is- Straight up Reese's Pieces- All-... ET style, these are real good...
13:04
all, all things Reese's, and then look at this thing. Ooh. Yeah. The Reese's White Ghost. Yeah, look at that. White Ghost edition. Yeah. See? All right. I'm gonna have to try this one during the break. See? Look at that.
13:13
So you got it, all things Reese's. You're welcome. That's what I'm here for. Peanut butter enrobed in white cream. Why doesn't it just say white chocolate? Why is it white cream? Oh.
13:22
Do the, does it have to be a certain perc- Is it kinda like the difference between- Oh... whiskey and bourbon or something or whatever? Yeah, maybe.
13:27
Does it have to be, like, a certain percentage something to be actually considered chocolate? Enrobed is kind of a, uh, creepy adjective, too. Well, I guess because it's a ghost, it's robed. Ah, he's wearing robes.
13:37
You know? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I get it. You can see. Good job, Reese's. You've done it again. [laughs] You're, you're like, "It was over my head," but, you know, uh, the joke was over my head, but yeah, it's fine.
13:44
Like, I, I get what you were con- I get what you were, uh, throwing down- Eh, I'm good... with, with all that.
13:48
Um, one thing I do wanna mention before we get going here in the NFL, Kelly, we, uh, we've got this Equinox special. We're going to go ahead and extend that until November the 3rd.
13:57
So you have until Sunday, and what you're gonna get is everything we do over at vsin.com for less than 20 bucks a month. So vsin.com/subscribe. You're gonna get the best bets.
14:07
You're going to get the video, um, you're gonna get the video over there on the website. You're going to get every single guide that we do. Of course, we talked about a ton of those.
14:16
Everything that helps you out being a bettor, bettor, and of course the picks page as well, so you can go in and keep up with everything that you hear here on the network from not only an expert standpoint, but from the guests as well.
14:26
This is the Equinox special. We had that on Monday. We extended it to Sunday. November the 3rd is when this ends, all less than 20 bucks a month. So go in, vsin.com/subscribe.
14:38
Dallas Cowboys and the Atlanta Falcons, this is currently sitting as a juiced three in favor of the Falcons, your total sitting at 51 and a half. I understand why the total is as high as the total is, Kelly- Yeah...
14:53
Biblin, because you have a team in the Cowboys that looks like, yes, they might be getting a little bit of reinforcements on the defensive side, but still no Micah Parsons.
15:03
We know Deshaun Lawrence already gone for the season, so there's a lot here to kinda unpack when it comes to this Dallas defense.
15:09
What, like, how much difference is an addition in the secondary here and there going to make when you're not really getting any pressure on the quarterback, right?
15:16
Because you can be the best cover corner on the face of the planet, but if the quarterback has all day to throw, you can only cover for so long, right? Mm-hmm.
15:23
And so that's why I'm not really jumping up and down about the additions i- in, in the secondary for the Cowboys, because I don't know where the quarterback pressure is going to come from, and as long as Micah Parsons isn't on the field, I'm not really worried about it too much.
15:37
Yeah, this was, uh, one of the games that I had circled to jump on after openers came out on Sunday. Total opened, uh, what it was, like, 48 and a half, 49, something like that. Shot out immediately up, up to 52.
15:49
It's come back a little bit. I have not bet it yet, man. I'm gonna be waiting here to see how this total moves throughout the weekend 'cause I, I think you're right.
15:55
I, I'd be shocked if we don't see a lot of points in this game. I, I think it's gonna be, a, a, lot of the same from what we've seen out of the Falcons the last couple weeks, and it's working through the air.
16:04
It's working on the ground right now for that team.
16:06
I, like you're talking about, with the injuries that, uh, Dallas has, and honestly as inconsistent as that defense has been anyways, uh, I think major advantage Atlanta on that side of the ball.
16:15
Even if you wanna just consider it an Atlanta team total over, I think that could be a good look as well if you're questioning- Yeah... uh, what the Cowboys might be able to do.
16:24
But I, man, I, I don't think the, I don't think the Falcons defense is gonna get, put up all that much resistance to the Cowboys either. Yep. Thought this was a little intriguing this week.
16:32
It took this long to finally hit three, and now like you said, it's mainly juiced threes, uh, around that we're looking like on Atlanta. That doesn't surprise me at all.
16:39
Did, got me interested on that Atlanta side this week, but stayed away. I might end up on the over those here still, I think. At 51, I, I don't know is enough. Yeah.
16:48
I- if you're talking about a total, Dallas weirdly is one of the better teams for an over that there is out there because Dak is the best hollow stats quarterback- Oh, yeah... in the history of the NFL.
17:00
You get down 17 points and Dak Prescott is about to throw for 200 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Like, it happens every single time. You saw last week.
17:09
You fantasy players know because you were going up against CeeDee Lamb. You got crushed in garbage, so it meant absolutely nothing. But CeeDee Lamb just goes out, gets a billion yards and a couple of touchdowns.
17:18
You have the 25th rated pass defense EPA per play in Dallas going up against the 24th rated pass defense EPA per play with the Atlanta Falcons. Yeah, you can get at both of these teams through the air.
17:30
And if you look, I know this Dallas team, I mean, this Dallas team has not been great on the offensive side, but Dak Prescott's not gonna have to worry about being under pressure.
17:39
This Atlanta team 30th in the NFL in pressure rate. So bad. Kelly, they cannot get to the quarterback, and they don't blitz that much either. They just blitz at the 20th highest rate in the NFL.
17:48
So I think Dak has a comfortable time back there and- I think CeeDee Lamb probably has another big day I, I don't think you can bet against that anymore Mm. Like, uh, what...
17:57
it's one of the most impressive things in the NFL to me.
17:59
When they, when this Cowboys team is this limited, and, and you know CeeDee Lamb's always the biggest threat, but then at times this year has basically been the only threat Mm...
18:07
and they still, still he racks up double digit catches. It's crazy. Yeah. Every single... I mean, seriously, like, just all the time this is what's goes on with this team. So I love betting this team over. Mm-hmm.
18:16
I, I, I think that's the only way that you can look to bet them. Dolphins and the Bills.
18:19
Just talking about this game a little bit with Paul Carr, said he kinda leans toward taking the points with the Dolphins up there at the Bills.
18:25
We talked about the scariest team to bet against on the face of the planet, and I said yesterday that it was the Bills to me because of what Josh Allen brings to the table. Now Amari Cooper is a bit banged up right now.
18:34
We'll find out his game status a little bit later this morning, Kelly. That does at least give me a tiny bit of pause in wanting to do anything with the Bills here in this one, and specifically maybe even with the total.
18:45
I understand that there was an emergence of Keon Coleman and certainly Dalton Kincaid, but I'm probably going to sit this one out. I'm curious as to what this Dolphins team looks like in week two with Tua back. Me too.
18:59
And so with that, it gives me a little bit of pause. Yeah, I played them in contest last week Mm... the Dolphins side, thinking we were gonna see a much be- better team with Tua. I, I think we're still getting there.
19:08
I, I actually, I, I think we're gonna see a better version still of this Dolphins team than what we've seen for, for the majority of the season with Tua out.
19:16
I don't think what we saw last week is a good representation of what we're going to see, see with this team long term and to finish the season. I do expect them to be better this week.
19:24
We talked about this a bit on Monday. I'm just gonna stand by what I said on Monday. Uh, if this gets up to seven, uh, I'm in, I'm in on Miami. Um, this is...
19:32
I, it really hasn't moved, uh, around that six too much this week. Anything less than that, uh, I got no interest in this one.
19:38
One thing I guess we can say, outside of just not getting really any pressure on the quarterback, that being said, Von Miller back out there for this Buffalo team after serving his suspension, you have one of the most well-rounded teams in all of the NFL.
19:51
Yes. Like, if you wanna go to, let's say your, your stat of choi- your advanced stat of choice is DVOA. Well, overall, the fifth overall team DVOA, second offense DVOA, seventh defense DVOA.
20:03
If you wanna go to EPA, it is the third offense EPA. It is the seventh defense EPA. In net EPA, it is the number one overall team in the NFL.
20:12
And then you go, they are no lower than 12th, which is just their pass defense success rate- Mm... that has been given up, in any advanced statistical category on either side of the ball, Kelly. I mean, like, that...
20:23
so this, this Bills team so far through the first half of the season has been by far the most well-rounded team there is because they're getting it done on both sides, not just the offense, but the defense as well.
20:32
Yeah, it's, uh, it's been really impressive. I don't know if I was expecting their defense to be as good throu- and through injuries, right?
20:38
It's been a lot of injuries this year, even before the season, through the season, that they've had to adjust to. Uh, team's been, team's been very good.
20:45
And when you have Josh Allen, to going back to your reason why you have them as the scariest team to bet against [laughs]...
20:50
A- it's just, he's one, he's one of the highest upside a- players in the NFL on the offensive side of the ball. Absolutely. We are s- looking Raiders and Bengals here.
20:58
Raiders go to Cincinnati, a seven to seven and a half point underdogs. We have actually gotten on the other side of seven in a couple places now. Uh, here in this one, 46 and a half.
21:08
People are not worried about the Tee Higgins thing apparently here in this one. I actually am.
21:11
If you wanna bet on the Cincinnati Bengals this year, you're betting on the offense, and that's the reason that you would back this team. And s- and Tee Higgins is a massive part of this offense.
21:20
Look no further than last week when they weren't really able to continue that success in the second half that they had in the first half because the team goes, "Oh, okay, well, I'm not just gonna let Ja'Marr Chase go for a billion yards in this game, so we'll take him out and see what you can do with all the rest of the team."
21:34
And I, I, I understand Vegas has given you no reason to love them at all, Kelly. But I think this to me is a little, a little scary at the field goal...
21:42
s- I mean, at the, uh, touchdown, and certainly on the other side of a touchdown. Okay. Um, Higgins is big. I'm not gonna say that's not big. I think this Raiders team is such a disaster, though, right now.
21:50
This is a Bengals side that e- when it wa- it was... what? It was on the other side of seven- Mm... kinda came back to seven yesterday when it was more- Mm...
21:57
I think the Higgins report coming out of him missing practice again. I think there was a little bit more Raiders money involved, kinda hit flat sevens. There's a lot of sevens out there still right now, but as, uh...
22:06
there's some seven and a halfs that have begun to pop. I might lay it at seven, probably play it as a contest play for me for Cincinnati, too.
22:13
I, look, I know Cincinnati's burned a lot of us at different portions this year, but you take away that Patriots loss in week one.
22:19
I mean, you look at the schedule, fine, they lost against the Chiefs, they lost in overtime against the Panthers. All these other games, though, they...
22:25
a- and they lost against the Commanders, which at the time we thought might've been a bad loss, doesn't look nearly as bad now. These easier opponents, though, they've taken care of.
22:31
You've got the Raiders coming into your building. I think this is a Bengals win. I think it's a Bengals win by margin. Joe Burrow, the number one quarterback in the NFL, adjusted EPA per play.
22:41
You go in, every single thing, you adjust for anything. You adjust for drops, you adjust for opponent, you adjust for... He is still number one overall in the NFL.
22:49
One other quick note, Jakobi Meyers is at least rumored to be maybe on the trade block- Yeah... out there.
22:54
And with that, that gives me a little bit of pause, too, backing the Raiders, 'cause what if they ship him out of town or limit his snaps? Just something to think about if you wanna back them.
23:01
Chris Felica when we come back. [upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. For all those idiots who believe in analytics.
23:16
This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on Beasin. [upbeat music] Hour number two of a numbers game here on Beasin. Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. Do not worry, he will be back on Monday.
23:30
You don't have to deal with me anymore, Kelly Biblon. I know everyone will be happy to see me out of the seat. Thank God. I know, everyone will be happy to see me out of the seat.
23:35
Gil will be back in here, but appreciate you guys letting me in here over the last week. I'm interested to see if we have any,
23:44
if we have any competing picks here from, from Mike Psomides yesterday a- and our next guest, the, the Bear Chris Felica joining us to talk not only the Breeders' Cup, but some college football as well.
23:56
Chris, how you doing, man? I, I, I'm doing well.
23:59
I'm sure we probably will have some, uh, competing thoughts being that these races are super highly competitive, uh, super even with a bunch of really attractive looking prices.
24:10
So I have a feeling we're both gonna land on some, uh, long shots that probably aren't the same in a, in a lot of these races. Which is fine. Yes. No, ab- absolutely.
24:19
We, we both, we both, we both can be right in a different race and both come out ahead if we, uh, we have the right prices. So we have two races that you're looking at that are happening today. Mm-hmm.
24:27
So if people want to go in and, and, and start getting their, their Breeders' Cup bettin' on today, Kelly- Let's go... you can do that. The Breeders' Cup- Sucker and bet... Juvenile Turf.
24:35
And so this is just a five furlong race. What are we looking at here in this one? Yeah, it, it's the first race today. I think it's at 2:30. I, I think it's like at 4:00 Eastern- Mm-hmm... I, I think is what it is.
24:48
You have to go back and look. But it's the, uh, it's the sixth race. And, and I really like the number two horse, Asterius, in here.
24:54
I, I think she's going to be w- uh, or he's gonna be right on the, on the lead or right near to it. I don't understand in looking at the form why he is f- nine to two and the three horse, Big Mojo, is four to one.
25:07
If you look a couple races back, uh, Big Mojo did beat Asterius, but Big Mojo was 25 to one in the race. So kind of dismissed. And since that race, uh, Asterius hasn't been beaten 101 his two races.
25:19
Uh, to get a little bit of a better price on Asterius today, and, uh, I, I think that was a little bit of a fluke. I, I don't know what to make of, uh, Ikoro Siege, uh, the Japanese horse who's the seven to two favorite.
25:30
I have a feeling that a lot of these Japanese horses are gonna be a little bit overvalued in the line just because of what we saw from Forever Young in the, in the Derby this year.
25:39
Chris, is it a g- what is, what kind of mindset do you have to change into when you're, when you're handicapping these sprints as compared to, like, your typical race that everyone is more accustomed to watching?
25:47
Is there a, a big, big difference i- in the handicapping process? Uh, there isn't a huge difference for me. Mm.
25:53
I, I always like to, the first thing I always like to do with a race is try and figure out whether if the five furlong sprint, six furlong, a mile, class, like classic distance turf dirt, is to figure out the pace of the race.
26:05
Do I think the pace is gonna be moderate? Do I, do I think the pace is gonna be slow? Do I think it's gonna be, uh, very, very fast up front to set up from someone off the, uh, off the pace?
26:13
And then I try and decipher, like, the class level of a lot of these horses. A- a- and I think, uh, with how I see this race flowing out, uh, I, I think Asterius is gonna set a really, really nice trip in here.
26:25
Let's head to the dirt here, another race that's happening today, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. This'll go a mile and a 16th. Who do you like here? Yeah. This is a, a great Juvenile.
26:35
A lot of times in the Breeders' Cup, uh, you get a lot of horses that maybe kind of peak at two, and you can't really foresee them moving on to have a really good three-year-old season.
26:45
But this is a really good Juvenile. Uh, the number one, East Avenue, is favorite.
26:49
But, uh, if you look at number one, East Avenue, and you look at number four, Ferocious, the roles are kind of reversed today for, for these two horses.
26:58
In that race at Keeneland, Ferocious was the horse in on the rail a- and had to deal with everything. East Avenue had the cushy outside spot. Ferocious was favorite in that race. Now East Avenue is favorite in this race.
27:10
I, I just think the race here, uh, w- with East Avenue and the Baffert horse, uh, I, I think there are a lot of horses that probably are gonna be on the pace.
27:18
And E- East Avenue is gonna have to be special, I think, to win today. But I, I know, uh, some of the connections of Ferocious, and I know they are extremely confident.
27:26
He, uh, Ferocious won with one of the more impressive winners at the Saratoga meet as a Juvenile this year, uh, to be favored in all three races, kind of come up, uh,
27:37
short in the, in, in the race at Keeneland last out and now have an opportunity to turn the tables. I think Ferocious can do it.
27:43
And if there was one other horse that could play in here, uh, it would be the number five horse, Jonathan- Jonathan's Way, who I think is a big time horse as well.
27:50
But, uh, but I, I think East Avenue at a short price, as good as he looks on paper, is, uh, very, very susceptible to being beat today. Let's head to tomorrow. And again, all these are just massive purse races.
28:02
This one, $2 million purse as we head a mile and three-eighths, the Breeders' Cup Philly and Mare Turf race. Uh, th- this is a race where I don't know if Cinderella's Dream wants to get this distance.
28:15
Uh, she looks good on paper. Trainer is fantastic. But, but I think there are a lot of opportunities in here, uh, to potentially get, uh, a price.
28:24
I look at the number 12 horse, Soprano, who is less than three to one at Keeneland, uh, in her last race. And now she's 20 to one on the morning line. Uh, the, the winner last time out, Freak.
28:35
Maybe Soprano isn't good enough, but at 20 to one, I will absolutely use her in my exotics.
28:40
The horse I really like h- is the five horse, Didia, who, uh, again, this horse was a beaten favorite last time out at Del Mar with four to five. Uh, got beat by a horse that was double digit odds.
28:50
So, uh, Didia's kinda gotten, uh, her footing over this Del Mar turf course right now. A- and I think coming back here at 12 to one now in a, in a...
28:58
If you look at Didia's past performances, uh, there's been a couple of times where she's been a little bit dismissed on the tote board, and she has run huge.
29:06
Uh, I think her trainer has her spotted very well here with a nice, uh, a, a nice outside-ish type post, but not too far out. Should get a comfortable trip.
29:14
I think Didia has a really, really big, uh, chance to win this race at four to one.
29:18
Talking to Chris Felica, helping us out here, not only handicapping some horse races, we also will get to college football here in a bit. But the big one, this one's gonna be on the big NBC $7 million purse here.
29:29
And this one, these are a bunch of horses, Chris, that I think that people maybe not realize they've heard of before. You got Forever Young in this field. You've got Derma Sonog- Sotogake. You've got, um, Fierceness.
29:39
You have Tapit Trice, Sierra Leone. So these are some horses, I think, that people might not even realize that they're, they're, they're familiar with. Right. Yeah.
29:46
'Cause Forever Young, a- after the, uh, Kentucky Derby, went back over to Japan and, and, and prepped and, and trained over there before coming back here. Uh, I, I will say this.
29:55
Before the Belmont Stakes, uh, a very good friend of mine, a very, very good handicapper and contest player said to me, uh- I think it was on Wednesday. He goes, "You need to go on the air on Fox this weekend.
30:07
You need to pick Dornick. I love Dornick in the Belmont." And what didn't I do? [laughs] I did not go on the air with Dornick. At least he's even a, uh, as a price horse, and what did Dornick do?
30:16
Dornick won the Belmont at a massive price. He, uh, he sent me a note the other day saying, "I love Newgate in the Classic on Saturday." So he, uh, he has a pretty keen eye for picking these long shot horses.
30:28
Uh, you get Bob Baffert with a horse that is kind of, uh, won the second race off of a layoff, ran really well in the first race off the layoff, should probably improve. It's gonna be a massive price.
30:38
I will absolutely be using Newgate. I am against the favorite City of Troy here. I will... I actually laid, uh, minus 250 or so on the field against City of Troy. Uh, I think they're kind of just taking a shot here.
30:53
Uh, but City of Troy's stud fee you see is already established as a great turf horse. I think they're trying to get a... If, if he wins on dirt, it is, his fee price go- price goes through the roof.
31:03
So I think they're taking a chance, kind of a no harm, no foul. If they run well, uh, great. If they don't, so what? If they win, it's even better. But I, I think you need to look at
31:12
the 11 horse Sierra Leone who, look, this horse has been kind of beat up a little bit during the summer, has always seemed to have trouble, but you get Flavian Prat now on this horse at Del Mar.
31:23
The horse's speed figures actually have been going up steadily, uh, throughout the summer.
31:27
But I, I think the way this race plays out, there should be a good bit of speed in here with Arthur's Ride and Fierceness and some other horses.
31:34
I think Sierra Leone has a great chance, and I would, I would've loved Forever Young in this race, but I worry about the draw with the rail a- and having some kickback and maybe kind of getting stuck in between horses and not being able to get a clear run.
31:48
He... I, I think Forever Young potentially could be the best horse in this race, even with the presence of City of Troy, but I just don't know if the trip is gonna work out for him tomorrow.
31:57
But I, I still will hesitantly use him, but, uh, I'm liking Sierra Leone for whatever reason more and more, uh, along with my buddy's horse, Newgate.
32:06
We'll have all of Chris's plays up over on vsen.com as well to make sure... I know it's a lot to take in if you're driving in your car. Yeah. But yes, this is, uh, this is great.
32:13
We'll have all of that up over at vsen.com. Let's get to the Fox. Here at y'all's game, uh, here, uh- Mm-hmm... Ohio State and Penn State, biggest game of the week.
32:22
As we sit right now, Chris, looking at about a three and about a 46 and a half on the total, what do you think about this one? I, I laid the three with Ohio State.
32:33
I think there's a little bit of an overreaction to what we saw last week, uh, in that close win against Nebraska.
32:39
You, you think back, college football is such a, an, a cyclical, emotional week by week where you're not gonna get the same performance from the same team twice.
32:47
Look, look, think back just, I guess it was September when they played, when, when Georgia went to Lexington and nearly lost to Kentucky, and I think Kentucky's won one game since then. They were terrible that night.
32:56
And when you, when you see a couple of weeks ago, Georgia goes to Texas and plays a fantastic game and blows out a team that was ranked number one in the country.
33:03
So, uh, yes, I do think the Ohio State offensive line is a little bit of a trouble, but, but I think we're gonna see a little bit of a different scheme, a little bit of a different game plan from Ohio State tomorrow.
33:13
I, I think you're probably gonna see more than one target, uh, from Jeremiah Smith in the second half, and I think you're gonna see a lot more Will Howard, uh, quarterback run to maybe elude the, get out of that pocket and get him on the move to kind of mask some of those offensive line problems.
33:26
And I think coinciding with that, the kind of the correlated play with Ohio State trying to eat up the clock a little bit will be a Penn State team total of under 20 and a half.
33:34
I, I know, I know Drew Allar is, uh, likely going to play now, but, but I, I think Ohio State getting, uh, Laytham Ranson back in the secondary, uh, the targeting call, that bad targeting call was reversed, so they're gonna be in full strength, I think, defensively.
33:48
A- and I would expect them to be in the, uh, the Penn State backfield, really limit the running game a- and force Drew Allar to, to beat them.
33:55
So, uh, I, I like Ohio State minus the three, and I did play the under 20 and a half Penn State team total. I'm sure that's gonna go over really well tomorrow on the air here in Happy Valley.
34:03
[laughs] Let me tell you, I love whenever we get the 9:00 AM games out here on the, on the West Coast, man.
34:08
Wake up, get the biggest game going, ready to rock and roll, ready to, ready to kick the day in the, in the teeth. Absolutely. Chris, uh, what's the hotel chain this week, uh, in Happy Valley? How is it?
34:18
Uh, I, I, I'm not an expert, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Oh. There we go. There we go. There we go. He is Chris Falica. Actually, it's, actually, it's, it's very new- Oh...
34:28
and, uh, quite comfortable. A huge room. So, uh, yeah, I, I'm, I'm quite happy with the accommodations. It's, it's definitely- I like it... moving up the, uh, moving up the ranks of ho- hotel chains on the road.
34:39
You do... You sound like you are in a, a big room right there. Yeah. Podcast production. I'm refreshed. He's refreshed. Yeah. I'm not an expert, but I am, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express.
34:46
[laughs] Catch him on Fox Sports, the Bear Bets podcast as well at Chris Falica on... Appreciate the time and good luck. Take care, guys. Have a great weekend.
34:54
When we come back, let's continue on talking some NFL here in week number nine. [upbeat music]
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