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Nov 20, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | November 20, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | November 20, 2024
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Transcript
0:00
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0:26
The numbers told the story. They always do. For all those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:35
It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, so many ways to take us in. We appreciate any way you choose. Thanks for making us part of your morning.
0:46
It's Gil Alexander, it is Klay Bidelon, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Kelly Biddle, everybody, is how you correctly pronounce that. How you doing, man? I'm doing well.
0:55
I'm still just, I'm still just laughing at our, at our loving, dysfunctional family that we have here at VSiN. The, uh, Dave Ross on his way out just spilling a, spilling some coffee right, uh, right as Gil- [laughs]...
1:05
sitting down. It's like, "There you go." And then just reminded of a Wes Reynolds classic of, uh, just spilling an entire cup two minutes before a show back at the South Point. Ah.
1:14
Just the, uh, the great sto- stories and lore of VSiN history. We shall survive- That's right... the liquid, the liquid on the console, which was cleaned up by Dave also, we should point out. Yes.
1:24
Uh, on the show today, a bevy of guests. Once again, a bevy of guests.
1:28
Alex Kane, the CEO of Sporttrade will, uh, join us, as will Jason Weingarten to talk awards, the fallout for him from the, from the awards given last night for Rookie of the Year, Skeens and Heal.
1:41
[laughs] Um, we'll find out if Jason won anyway, as he said last time on something. You, you know the best part about this today, the Jason coming on? Everybody's so excited about it. We're excited about it.
1:52
Me and you have not had a disc- we haven't had a more than one second of a discussion of if we're gonna talk anything else with him besides this [laughs] because we expect this to take so much time up.
2:02
Well, I hope it doesn't. [laughs] You know? But Jason gets to going on that stuff, and he'll, he'll, he's a little...
2:08
He's, you know, he's, he's that guy where he's upset, but he wants to act like he, he wants to say that he's not upset. Right. So I, I don't, you know, I...
2:15
He, he, listen, he's given us so many winners through the years, so sometimes- I'm looking forward to it... they don't go your way. Uh, Tim Murray talking college football with us.
2:23
Tim Murray, host of the, uh, VSiN College Football Tailgate Show, of course. Uh, we will discuss college football with him. All of that in the second hour. I, I buried the headlines of the first.
2:33
JVT, our senior NBA analyst, will, uh, be here to talk with us, some college hoops with Matty Cox, and Kelly and I deep-diving into, and this is, I'm looking forward to this, NFL fewest wins. Fewest wins, baby.
2:47
Th- this market is so jumbled, Gil. It's- Oh, I love it... like, it's almost like coach of the year, right? [laughs] Where you're like, "I, there's a lot of people that could win this thing."
2:56
But I, I think I found one I like. I think I found one I like. You- Here, before we get to it, here are your candidates.
3:01
The Chicago Bears, four and six, the three and seven Panthers and Cowboys, the three and eight Patriots and Jets, the two and eight Giants, Raiders, Browns, and Titans, and the two and nine Jaguars.
3:15
Those are your candidates. We'll get to it coming up. Uh, first, last night in the, uh, in the National Basketball Association Emirates NBA Cup, you've caught the fever already? Um- Yeah...
3:25
I'm gonna ask you, what's a bigger deal from last night? Here are your choices. Got- You ready? Uh, third choice, hint, this is not the biggest deal, uh, Russell Westbrook with his 200th career triple double.
3:33
How about that? Uh- Russell Westbrook, 200 career triple double.
3:37
Yeah, he's, uh, I have a feeling he's gonna go down in history as one of the more underappreciated players, uh, i- in the NBA, in NBA history for what he's done statistically, 'cause it is pretty incredible.
3:47
But, um, yeah, no. What, what's next? Um, by the way, uh, Jokic will soar past that- Mm... um, in due time, i- within a few years at current pace, and then, uh, Luka will probably get there as well.
4:00
Choice number two, Dalton Knecht, baby, uh, who I, before the, uh, last, uh, NCAA tournament, before last March Madness, I was like, "I feel like a Danny Manning and the Miracles thing is happening with, is about to happen with Dalton Knecht and the volunteers."
4:12
It did not happen, by the way. Um, but Dalton Knecht, nine three-pointers to tie the rookie record shared by three others. Um, nine three-pointers for the Lakers on his way to 37 points in a Lakers win last night.
4:27
That's choice number two. Okay. 'Cause he's obviously, what, what a, what a nice cog for the Lakers to have in that wheel. They needed a shooter. Uh, they got themselves a shooter. Lakers beat the Jazz 124 to, uh, 118.
4:38
Or the third choice, the fact that the Cleveland Cavaliers, the 15 and 0, before last night, the 15 and 0 Cleveland Cavaliers were down 21- Ugh...
4:49
to the defending world champion Celtics, and got within two on five different occasions, could never quite get over the hump, but still get the cover as they lose to the Celtics, uh, 120 to 117 in a game that closed seven.
5:06
You and all y'all betting the Celtics last night. Yeah, I was on that. I was a loser. Uh, two losers for me last night. Um, that was a, look, big game.
5:16
Celtics win it, uh, did add the Celtics group winner play, so at least they won the game, so they're, they're looking better in that situation, BS cover didn't get home. Uh, to answer your question, though- Yes, sir...
5:26
uh, it, it's kind of interesting because the Cavs were gonna lose at some point. The Cavs losing to the Boston Celtics, which are the best team in the, in the NBA, I, not a shocker to me.
5:35
Dalton Knecht is the biggest piece of news of the three you just went through, because if Dalton Knecht can possibly do this at any level of consistency throughout the season for this Lakers team, they, as you kind of said, they add a dimension and a- another element to this team that they desperately need.
5:51
It's not, it is not a luxury add for the Lakers. They need a player like this to be able to do things like this if they're actually gonna go far in the NBA playoffs. The Cavaliers, I'm, uh, I think you might be right.
6:02
It might be Knecht, by the way, who is three to one To win Rookie of the Year. Only Jarrett McCain at plus 180 is shorter That is picks, uh, what, 17 and 18 in the draft, I believe. That's right.
6:12
We couldn't, we couldn't believe that Connect fell- Mm-hmm... to the Lakers i- in the draft.
6:15
And he- And McCain's been awesome Uh, Zachary Riset Shay, by the way, seven to one, the only other person in, uh, in double digits. Um, I don't know, man, the, uh, the Cavs didn't have
6:28
Okoro, Wade, or LeVert last night either against the Celtics, and they only lose by three. That shouldn't be glossed over either. No, not at all. Yeah. Not at all. I... They are, they're a great team. Um,
6:41
I don't know at what point I'm gonna s- really buy in. You and I have talked about this a fair amount, this... I, I, I wonder that... Look, the coaching change has clearly made a huge difference.
6:51
Mobley just even, even how some of the players are acting, he- M- Mobley's drives to the basket per game are massive. That was an element that was missing from this team in years past.
7:00
I, I don't know if all the pieces are there to make this go through the playoffs and work long-term, but they've been a great regular season team for the past few years. I don't think there's any reason to believe...
7:10
I mean, right now, Gil, they are the second-best team in the Eastern Conference to me, and it would not be no shock if they finished the regular season that way. Yeah. Um, what's... I mean, unless they collapse.
7:20
I mean, at this point, Kenny Atkinson is Coach of the Year running away with it at this point. I think so, yeah. Yeah.
7:25
Um, Kenny Atkinson, uh, coveted by many teams with vacancies through the, uh, through recent history, and finally the Cavs, uh, get their man. Kenny Atkinson, even money.
7:35
Steve Kerr and Joe Mazzulla, the next choices at b- both at nine to one. By the way, are you getting tired of the Joe Mazzulla act with the, with the press? Oh, I- The attitude... I am so tired of it. I'm so tired of it.
7:48
Like, what's... Dude, what's w- I get it, you won a championship, now you can, like, just have that, have that attitude the whole time with him. Like, e- every question is, is treated with such smugness. Yes.
8:01
And, like, there... I don't... There's always... I mean, don't get me wrong, some of his quotes are funny. Like say, I...
8:06
Some of these guys that get these, like, Phil Jackson-esque Zen quotes that you're just like, "W- w- who's ever said this?" And, like, Mazzulla does this [laughs] sometimes.
8:14
M- And, and Joe Mazzulla, you're allowed to smile. I know it, I- Right... you might think it's not cool here. You're allowed to smile. That is... It, it is interesting, odds. I do not have a bet in this market.
8:22
I mean, Kenny Atkinson obviously deserves to be the favorite. I don't know that Mazzulla or Kerr... I, I know JVT was high on Bud coming into the year. I, I don't... Like, Eme Udoka and JJ Redick still stick out to me.
8:35
Eme Udoka at 14 to one and JJ Redick [laughs] at 18 to one. Yeah. Wow. Uh, okay, I did promise yesterday that I would have an NBA bet, and I do, uh, 'cause we got into a discussion.
8:44
Drew was here, uh, Drew Dinsick, and we got into most improved player. Mm-hmm. I, I sort of let it out, I left it open, "Hey, what awards in the NFL and in the NBA, uh, interest you?"
8:53
And he immediately launched into the NBA most improved player. He loves, loves Franz Wagner. Uh, Franz Wagner currently at seven to one, the third shot. Yeah, got shorter. Yeah. Got a little shorter.
9:04
Jaylen Williams at plus 450, Jaylen Johnson at plus 550, and there's W- Wagner at seven to one. Uh, my bet, Kelly, is on, a little unorthodox- La, la, la, la, la...
9:14
'cause it doesn't usually go to an older player, but I went with Norman Powell. Norm Powell of the LA Clippers at 18 to one.
9:23
Now, you're saying, "Man, old player doesn't ever win Most Improved Player," and you'd be right, by the way. That's the fly in the ointment here, right?
9:30
This is a- an award that has gone to Lauri Markkanen, to Ja in his third year, I believe. Uh, went to Giannis early in his career. Um, you know- You do have one recent, though.
9:42
One recent that it's, it's not as old a- Yeah... uh, as Norman Powell, but Julius Randle winning it. Julius Randle, that's right. That's the closest comp.
9:49
But w- the reason I went with Norm Powell is he has improved his points per game by 10 points here- Mm-hmm... in the early season, from 13-plus points a game to 23-plus points a game. That is a Markkanen-like jump.
10:04
Um, Wagner, only three-point improvement, and I know all the advanced metrics, uh, with Wagner that Drew was pointing out yesterday. I concede that.
10:11
But again, it gets down to, what are the, what are the voters actually gonna bet on? Are they deep diving into the metrics? Um, or are they just gonna look at the fact that Norm Powell is just having a ridiculous...
10:22
And again, it's only 17, 18 games, I get it, so this is, you know, trying to get ahead of this. But I think this is a portent of things to come from Norm Powell throughout the season. He's also shooting.
10:32
Now, here's what he can't possibly sustain. Yeah. He is shooting 47% from behind the arc. 47. I think it's 46.9 or something like that. But that is insanity.
10:44
Uh, and, uh, you saw it, by the way, in full display against the W- the Dubs the other night. Uh, but he has been incredible for the Clippers.
10:50
Now, the other point that was made, one of the other points that was made by Drew was, well, but the magic may end up with, like, the three seed in the Eastern Conference, and the Clippers are not gonna get...
11:00
By the way, the Clippers, I will concede, will not get anywhere close to a three seed in the Western Conference. But
11:05
I don't believe that this award historically, or even should moving forward, I agree that it hasn't historically, been tied with a team's success in the standings. It's Most Improved Player, right?
11:17
And I do believe the big jump. Now, some other players we were talking about yesterday in this market, Grady Dick, second year, he's not gonna get it.
11:24
Um- N- now, it's usually not garbage teams, but, like, that's, Clippers fall, fall in the middle. That's fine. That's right. Yeah. Yeah, not gonna be a garbage team.
11:31
Dyson Daniels, big 10-point jump in his, uh, points per game average, but it's from five to 15, not from 13 to 23. And as we've talked about in years past, you usually don't go from oblivion to mediocrity. Yeah.
11:44
Or not mediocrity, but, you know, being okay, good. 19 to 24 is a much more significant jump than six points a game to 16 points a game. LaMelo we talked about yesterday. It's more about an injury.
11:55
Uh, Jaylen Williams, Jaylen Johnson, all good, but the stats jump is not as dramatic as they are for Norman, for Norm Powell. Um,
12:05
Jaylen Williams is gonna have to do more in the, in the stat sheet, I think, to, uh, to justify the plus 450 right now. Um, that's my play. Norm Powell, 18 to one is what I got him at yesterday
12:24
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13:00
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Skill Alexander, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Should I Ron Burgundy through some tweets, Skelly? What do you think?
13:10
Sure. Sure. [laughs] Here are some- It always makes me feel comfortable. Yeah I'm sure you're, you're like, "Oh, this c- this can only go great." [laughs] Um, let's see here. This is from James Sott.
13:19
"Also missing last night for the Cavaliers, Max Strus, who hasn't played all year, uh, for the Cavs. Of course, Porziņģis missing, too, but missing all their wings didn't help. It was a fun, big game in November."
13:30
Uh, Joe Arsoo, "I'm in town for the F1 race. There are a lot of bets that are very interesting. Any advice?" Well, again, tomorrow, we didn't say again, I was just doing the promo for it- That's right...
13:39
but I didn't say it on air, Phil Bobbit, uh, the gentleman who was on before the F1 race last year and who crushed it, as I recall- He crushed it. He crushed it...
13:47
he crushed it, will be on the show tomorrow to talk about the, uh, Las Vegas Grand Prix. And let me just say this again, not only to talk bets tomorrow, but I just wanna say this again.
13:57
For all of the guff that we gave F1 for h- how they destroyed the city last year, this year, great. I was, uh, out, I, I went out, uh, for dinner on the Strip last night.
14:08
Navigating around actually wasn't all that big of a deal. Nope. Co- like Koval's completely closed, but the Strip's, the Strip's open.
14:16
It's kind of, it's kind of cool anyways that you can just kind of drive where they're gonna be racing. Oh, it's, and it, never have you driven on a smoother surface in your life.
14:24
Right, like I drove on a racetrack last night. Yeah. Like, that's- Yeah... that's just a fact. Uh, it does, it does not allow me to make one specific turn when I go to work. [laughs] There is that.
14:32
But once you learn that, I just, uh, you know, avert, but it's, uh, it's great. Uh, this is a, let's see, Andy V. Hold on, I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna Ron Burgundy into Andy V tweets.
14:42
"Can you ask notorious FSU hater and UFM fanatic, Chris Fallica, what more does Cam Ward need to do to win the Heisman?
14:50
Uh, took a seven and 16 last year to a nine and one record on the doorstep of the playoffs while being the NCAA leader in passing yards with marginal NFL talent at wide receiver."
14:58
Well, I will ask him that when he comes on Friday. Also, by the way, speaking of who's on Friday, 'cause we do the Football Fridays, uh, hour here with, uh, Fallica, Fezzik, and Dr.
15:06
Bob, Bob calls me yesterday, this is a true story, in the middle of the day, Bob calls me.
15:11
Uh, Bob and I are great friends, but we rarely talk on the phone, so when he calls in the middle of the day, I'm like, "Oh, what's going on? What's up, Bob?"
15:17
Swear to God, three and a half minutes after I say, "What's up, Bob? What's happening?" Three and a half minutes of Bob just launching, not even as so much as a hello.
15:25
Bob launches into, "Can you believe these people on Twitter who think Indiana shouldn't be in the playoff if they lose badly to Ohio State?" Oh, man. Three and a half minutes, I barely get in two words.
15:35
[laughs] And at the end he goes, "Good talking to you, buddy." [laughs] That was the end of that. [laughs] That was the whole conversation. What a national treasure. [laughs] So he's gonna be on Friday.
15:42
He is a national treasure. Um, good friend Chillionaire says, "My rookie of the year selection would have to be S- uh, Stefon Castle. 22 to one at, uh, DraftKings. Haven't checked any other books yet.
15:51
Long shots," he says. By the way, Castle, a player that, uh, LeBron James has already praised this year as well. Uh, he's great. Uh, there's a lot of interesting rookies right now in the NBA.
15:59
And there's not the, it, it feels like it's been a little while for, uh, since we've had the, like a wide open race like this, right? Yeah. So, and it's very wide open. We have Matty Cox, by the way.
16:08
We do have Matty Cox. Oh, we do. Can I just read this one? 'Cause this one goes after you for a second. Yes. Rich PSN. Goes after me. [laughs] "Russell Westbrook underappreciated?
16:15
He got an MVP, but that team, along with all his others, didn't win a championship because he's always shot poorly too much. He's killed more good teams than built them." There you go.
16:23
He didn't like your talk about Russell Wilson. Yeah, okay. Russell Wilson, Russell Westbrook. Pardon me. Stat-wise, he, he's put up ridiculous numbers throughout his entire career.
16:30
I'm just saying, we don't, we're not gonna really appreciate that. We remember that one season fr- uh, what is that, 12 years ago now? There you go. All right, ready to go?
16:39
Matty Cox, ladies and gentlemen, from Three Man Weave. Let's talk some college hoops courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
16:44
Matty Cox, one of the, uh, three-headed monster at Three Man Weave, with a, uh, with a cornucopia of pennants behind him. We got a little, uh, let's see- Yeah... South Florida, some FAU. FSU, see the Owls.
16:55
Some Duke back there. What do we got? Indiana. Oh, [laughs] what is that? Hawaii in the middle. Is that Missouri Valley State also? It, it, Valley State, Gil- Valley State... I covered last night, by the way.
17:05
Went into the Octagon of Doom and got it done for backers, so yeah, shouts to, uh, shouts to my, your, as you called it, a potpourri of p- I'm trying to complete it. I have some white space here.
17:14
I just moved into a new remote office. Um, the Three Man Weave doing very well, very well, as you can tell. So yeah. Yeah Still in, in the, uh, work in progress phase, but we're getting there.
17:23
Not quite as professional as what you guys have there, but close. Very close. Your seas- your handicapping season is going well so far? Uh, it's okay.
17:30
Um, I don't like to speak, uh, poorly or, or, um, strongly about it until it's over. I, I'm very superstitious, but, uh, so far it's going fine, and I would be very okay if this pace continued the rest of the year.
17:41
It n- never does, you know? There's always, um, annoying dips and unforeseen spikes. If you could just go one unit a day, that'd be great, but just not how gambling works. The variance monster doesn't allow that, so. No.
17:52
No. I think about that from time to time. It's like, okay, if I could just win th- like a, what would you, what you would consider- One unit a day keeps the doctor away... a modest amount of money every day. Right?
17:58
Eh, it doesn't happen. One unit a day keeps the doctor away. [laughs] That's my, that's my motto. Um, let me, uh, let me ask you this, 'cause I asked this of your buddy, uh, James Patrick Root when he was on.
18:07
What futures do you have in pocket yourself here, uh, in November? Well, I have a couple I hate. I, Wake Forest was a big position I took, uh, to win the title, so these are all to win title.
18:19
Uh, Wake Forest at, uh, 250 to one. Um, you know, they could, I don't know. Cincinnati, who I really like, I have them at 200 to one.
18:26
Texas Tech, who I think Jim was also beating the drum for, that's probably my favorite position. I have them at 125 to one. Um- And then I took some UAB, Grand Canyon, uh, and then Xavier as well.
18:39
Those are the other three that are just okay. Um, so yeah, my- Jim's better at the p- at the futures than me. I, I got burned on the last couple of years. I think my problem was I...
18:46
If you bet too many of those favorites, you kind of erode your... You have to be more selective, and I think you kind of have to skew away from the top 20.
18:54
The whole percentages and the sort of the value you get in the top 20 is, is tough. You have to really kind of get in that 20 to 50 range, teams that you think can launch into the top 20.
19:03
Um, and that's kinda how you accumulate your value. Also, buy them throughout the year, right? I mean, pre-season, uh, you tend to get better value on teams that you like at a dip during the season, right?
19:11
No- December, November, after a tough loss or a bad streak, I think that's when you gotta... Being, being patient pays off in the futures market.
19:18
Uh, let me ask you about a couple, you know, a few results that have already occurred, then we'll get to your plays today.
19:23
Um, Alabama loses at Purdue, if I'm not mistaken, which is not the most shocking thing in the world. Um, Arizona loses to Wisconsin. Um,
19:35
Duke obviously on a more, on a grander stage losing to Kentucky, uh, even after, uh, Cooper Flagg had a great game, but then three possessions not so well at the end there.
19:44
Uh, what matters the most of all of those to you, or are all these just early season blips? Early season, I...
19:50
You hear these coaches talk and y- more than ever it feels like, especially these non-conference games in November, right?
19:56
Like, as you get into December, and sometimes you get these non-conference battles in January, February, where it's, like, getting closer to the end of the year and I think the coaches put more stock in how their team's playing late in the season.
20:08
Especially now when you have so much player turnover, where to, to hear guys like, uh, you know, Buzz Williams and, um, you know, Matt Painter and Hubert Davis, like, talk about how it's like they don't really care about losing these, these early season games.
20:21
They, they just don't, right? They, they wanna see their guys in high, uh, pressure environments, and whatever happens happens.
20:27
And I don't know if that's, you know, how it always used to be, but it does feel like there is, um...
20:31
I, I, I try to keep myself from putting too much stock in what happens early in these big non-conference tilts, especially on the neutral sites in early November. I think there's more noise there than signal.
20:42
There's always exceptions, as we saw with UConn and how dominant they were in their MTE efforts the last two seasons before kind of struggling, you know, through conference play. But generally, I think I...
20:52
there's more noise than signal in those games. Uh, since I br- since I bring up Flagg, is there anyone in the Wooden Award market that you would dare bet at this point besides him? No. Uh, I think the prices are tough.
21:02
I, you really have to find a, an upshot guy with, with major, um, you know, a, a guy who can be on a, you know, top four seed or a Cinderella darling at-large team that just sets the world on fire with product.
21:15
I don't really see a ton of those guys this season. I think it's a very open race. Um, it's, it's a tough market to bet because you have so many of these top teams with a ton of depth.
21:24
Like, there's not clear-cut alphas, leading producers. It's one of the hardest markets in the futures that I've tried to bet, uh, historically, and I think it's only got harder.
21:33
So that's why I didn't touch the 10-foot pole. Um, and honestly, I don't even think Flagg's a great value bet.
21:38
I think there's a ton of other weapons on that Duke team that I don't think his scoring production's gonna always be gaudy.
21:43
I think he sort of impacts the game in many different ways and, and maybe not always in the stat-stuffing ways that you need to really have a good case for a player of the year.
21:52
You know, points, rebounds, that kind of stuff. Yeah, I was watching, and, uh, probably the best college basketball game of the season so far was that College of Charleston double overtime game. Oh, yeah.
22:00
And the kid from College of, uh, uh, College of Charleston, whose name escapes me right now, but he plays for College of Ch- Charleston, right? So you can't even consider betting someone like that. Right, yeah. Right.
22:09
Um, okay, what'd you land on today? I got a couple of dogs.
22:13
It's funny, all of these big favorites, and you've probably talked to this with Jim or you've seen this in the market for those bets, I mean, they've really been taking a lot of money early this season.
22:21
Um, it, it, you know, like for example, I was looking at Merrimack, uh, a new addition to the main board by the way.
22:27
Shout-outs to Merrimack and, uh, and, and Joe Gallo making the big upgrade to the, the three-digit, not six-digit listing on the, the, the big board. They're playing Rutgers.
22:35
Young team that's a little bit banged up and can't score. Um, I did take first half there, but again, market was all over Rutgers early, so I should get a better price there on first half.
22:44
The other one I did take first half was San Jose State. There's been some buyback, but, but USC took big money early. I think Temi Miles is a dog against Eric Musselman. Uh, I think that's a good, that's a plus EV bet.
22:54
So Rutgers and San Jose State, both first half bets. Merrimack and San Jose State. Oh, Merrimack. Some favorite, favorites in both. Yeah, yeah. Gotcha. Merrimack and San Jose State. Okay. Thank you, sir.
23:04
Appreciate it very much. Matt Cox from 3 Man Weave, thank you. No, thank you, fellas. Take care. You too. Ante Zirzek, by the way, the, uh, player from College of Charleston I was referring to.
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24:09
Logic3227, "Yo, every time Norm Powell hits a three, the whole crowd should yell Norm like on the TV show Cheers." Yeah, they should.
24:18
[laughs] Uh, JasonH11, "As a diehard Giants fan, of course I have a Giants worst record bet at 10 to 1. Let's go, Tommy Cutlets." I love the Giants self-defeatist self-hate bets. Yeah, yeah. Those are great.
24:30
Uh- Do you have a bet in that market at all? 'Cause I do have the- No, I don't... I do have the Patriots from before the season. I don't. Does it exist in town? Great question.
24:38
Probably not I don't think it does It, it wa- it wasn't up for, on DraftKings for multiple weeks. Remember we kept talking about wanting- Yeah... to talk about it. It wasn't posted anywhere.
24:46
DraftKings is where, uh, we were quoting the- Yeah... the numbers from. Um, let's see. Scott New York Mess 16, "As a Commodes fan, Gil's hatred of the Giants is appalling. But as a Giants fan myself, I agree completely."
24:57
[laughs] Plus 450 it is. So great. Uh, let's see. The Numbers Guy, "Tiebreaker rules on those NFL awards? When does, uh, when does the NBA season officially kick off?" He asks you, Kelly. He says, "I wanna say April.
25:09
I always mix it up with MLB opening day." Wow, NBA hate. Um, and let's see, Chris Heath, "[laughs] Killing, killing me with the pioneer call with that Dr. Bob story from yesterday."
25:18
[laughs] Uh, Motor City Mike, "I'm very fond of my Cade Cunningham most improved player ticket at 25-1.
25:23
He's bordering, uh, uh, bordering on a nightly triple double threat, and the Pistons could make the play and just added Norm 16 to 1. Let's go." I like it, Window Casher. Let's go. I like it.
25:35
Uh, let's bring in JBT to chime in on this. Oh, he's got thoughts. Yeah, Jonathan Von Tohl, everybody.
25:39
Not only, uh, co-host of, uh, Vsan, uh, Tonight, but also, you know, listen, he's the, he's our NBA senior analyst, and he's got thoughts on many an award market.
25:48
Most improved player is what we were batting around here, JBT, and I, and I want you to, uh, tell me if I'm way off on this, but I, I bet Norm Powell yesterday at 18 to 1. You tell me why I'm wrong.
25:59
I mean, I, I don't think you are. I, I think this is just really just about how do the voters view him.
26:03
I think K- Kelly and I and Zach Cohen were actually chatting about this a couple of days ago in our group chat, which is just, like, what do you do as a voter, or how do the voters view certain guys when it comes to most improved?
26:14
And I asked the question, "Do you view them from the prism of this is what this guy was the year before and what he is now, or what he is now in comparison with what he has been throughout the entirety of his career?"
26:26
But either way, Norm Powell fits it, right? Yeah. I mean, the guy is, for a career averaging 12.6 points per game. He's at 23.3 this year. Last year, he averaged just 13.9. Again, upwards of 23 points per game.
26:38
He's taking on a much more b- a much more massive role as an everyday starter. Uh, I think that he fits all of the criteria as a most improved player. And while he is very long in the tooth, right?
26:49
Like, we're talking about 2015, 2016 was his first year. We do have at least some precedent that, like, older guys have won the award.
26:55
Most recently Julius Randle, if you remember, in about his sixth this year, something like that, seventh year, ended up winning in New York, uh, over, uh, Jalen, or excuse me, Jerami Grant that season.
27:05
So they are willing to give it to guys who have been in the league for a, a relatively long time. So I do think that he is pretty viable.
27:11
The, the thing that has kept me from it is just that, like, will the voters just say, "Ah, he's been here forever.
27:15
He doesn't really count, and we're gonna make some arbitrary, you know, parameter as to why he cannot win this award"?
27:21
And that would be the only thing that worries me, but like, if I had a vote, he's definitely inside of my top five guys that I am watching for the rest of the season. Yeah, I think it's a really interesting case.
27:29
I, I think that, uh, that's my only slight hesitation too, is the, okay, he's been... We have so many of these guys in the league, right, right, JBT? Mm-hmm.
27:37
Of the, kind of the sixth man guys that we always know how teams are gonna utilize them, and that was so, that was Norm Powell forever.
27:45
And do we just look at it more now he's just getting more shots, there's more quantity, uh, a- more minutes, and then, and then the stats are coming along?
27:52
I don't think he's gonna be punished for that, but it, it's just, it's an interesting case. Well- And, and I don't, I don't mind the bet either. It's interesting.
27:59
And I think too that the part of the conversation around him too is, so there's a couple things.
28:02
The first of which is if you go back to 2020, 2021, when he's with Toronto, remember, he was a 20 points game per, uh, per game scorer that year for the Toronto Raptors.
28:11
He averaged about 16 the year prior, 17 the year after that. Like, he's been in this nexus of, like, 20 point per game scorer and then, you know, nearly starting role almost every single night.
28:21
So again, will they look at that and go, "We've seen this from him before. This does not count"? And the other part is, like, let's take my guy, for example. I've got Jalen Johnson at 14 to 1 to win this thing.
28:30
When you say most improved, do you weight the guy who's been in the league for as long as Norm Powell has been making this leap more than the fourth-year player who is making a very strong leap to potentially being, like, you know, cornerstone best player on his team next to Trae Young kind of guy?
28:47
That's the other question of how voters view those leaps.
28:50
Is the young guy making a leap in his fourth year more of an adequate leap, more improvement than the guy who's just been in the league a long time and getting just more minutes and more volume?
28:57
I think you're exactly right with all of that, John. I think it does come down to w- how the voters, each individual one of these guys will, and, and girls, will decide, uh, how, what, what means the most to them.
29:08
What, what is the definition of that? Uh, everything you say applies there.
29:13
Uh, the only other thing I will add to this, then we'll move on, get your picks, but, uh, Powell was also a Sixth Man of the Year candidate a few years ago, couple of years in a row. Oh, he's constantly, yeah.
29:21
Couple years in a row he finished fourth, and I do wonder if there's a little muscle memory in that where like, "Well, we didn't give him that, so maybe we should consider him more seriously for this." I don't know.
29:30
I, I do think the biggest check mark you have is the Julius Randle. Yes. At least, like, we can point to that and say- 100%... he hasn't always been a third, fourth-year guy.
29:38
100%, because that is the fly in the ointment. And remember- Yep... too, he's not a second-year guy, so we're not gonna make up that stupid rule where we can't vote for him. [laughs] So, so remember that.
29:46
You mean, uh, Grady Richard, as I like to call him, is a possibility, is what you're trying to say? Uh, i- yep, uh, him. Uh, technically Victor Wembanyama.
29:54
Or no, excuse me, Chet Holmgren, even though he's injured, so he, I drew a line through him early ev- although he was up there too.
29:58
So yeah, these guys, um, l- as long as they're not in their second year, we expect them to make massive leaps, even though some of them are absolutely transcendent second-year leaps. W- whatever.
30:06
What was the deal in the '70s that everybody named Richard just took that nickname? It was very strange. I don't, I've got- That's a whole, that's a whole nother story... I've got an uncle with that name. Yeah. Yeah.
30:13
Never understood it. Yeah, never understood it. Whole different podcast Um, okay. Uh, John, who do you have in the NBA tonight? Not a cup night, but a regular night, if you will. Yeah.
30:22
Just means a little bit more on those cup nights, you know? So, uh, I think a downturn in play a little bit later this evening.
30:28
No, so I, the only thing that I've got here, um, Atlanta and Golden State, I think Kelly is in on this, uh, potentially too. Golden State's an eight-point favorite, total's 239.
30:36
Um, but here's the thing, I actually haven't bet anything yet. I, what I wanna do here is I'm gonna wait for this game to start in-game and see if I can get a cheap price.
30:43
I do like Golden State tonight, but when you look at the non-Curry minutes, one of the things that has really stuck out is their offense has really dropped off a lot.
30:50
You go back to a couple of games, for example, just last week, guys, uh, the reason why Steph Curry had such an incredible moment against the Dallas Mavericks is because Steve Kerr took him off the floor at the start of the fourth quarter, and they immediately went into a hole, and he had to come back with some heroics.
31:02
And I think some in-game strategies with this team is trying to find some spots where they're either down or that number comes down a little bit when those bench units really start to take hold.
31:11
'Cause remember, we're talking about this team not only because they're great, but because they're doing something unique.
31:15
They have this 12-man rotation that Kerr just, doesn't really wanna budge from, and you kind of understand why, but I think that has presented a lot of different in-game opportunities to find this Warriors team at a cheaper price.
31:24
So Warriors are on the radar, and I do think that they're going to be worth it, but I wanna see if I can get that number cheaper when we get to an in-game standpoint.
31:30
And then later tonight to also Orlando and LA, the Clippers and the Magic. We saw this total open up at, uh, 207 and a half. We're down to 206 and a half. Uh, I bet under 207, so I think this one's gonna get ugly.
31:43
Two really good defensive teams. I sent this stat to Kelly and Zach earlier. Uh, the two best on-ball defenders at the guard position and the two best wing defenders, uh, are all on the Orlando Magic. This team is great.
31:54
This Clippers team stinks on offense. I think this is gonna be a pretty ugly game tonight. Uh, we wanna get to your, your favorite college football and your favorite pro football play.
32:01
Real quick, though, I'll ask you what I asked Kelly at the beginning, which is, bigger story last night, Knecht scoring 37 on the strength of nine threes for the Lakers, or the fact that the Cavs, even without three players, kept it super close against the Celtics, came, almost came all the way back from 21?
32:18
I mean, I think it's probably Knecht just because Rookie of the Year seems to be so wide open, right?
32:22
There, there has not really been a candidate that has separated himself entirely from the pack, and so any good performance is going to push a guy like Knecht, who's been incredible, not just last night, into the stratosphere of potential contender.
32:32
So I think it's Knecht. Who would've possibly thought he would've been a, you know, a, a better pick than at W- than where he went- Well, yeah. [laughs]... for God's sakes?
32:39
Uh, we all thought he was gonna be a top 10 pick. All right, favorite college football play this week is? Okay, so I think there's a lot, but I'll, I'll focus on Air Force. Air Force is on the road.
32:47
They're taking on Nevada this week, and I, there's this thought that I've talked about here on primetime, guys, where, look, Air Force, if you remember, was rebuilding everything essentially.
32:54
The entire roster was gutted. I think they brought about four starters back. They started off the year terribly. But this service academy is starting to get continuity.
33:00
These guys that don't have experience are starting to get experience, and we're really starting to see it. They beat up Fresno State. They absolutely demolished Oregon State.
33:07
I think this team is getting better and peaking at the right time, and I think they're worth riding.
33:11
So looking at Air Force to, to win outright as an underdog on the road in Reno is, uh, very much a bet worth making, so I took Air Force this weekend. All right.
33:18
Favorite NFL player, or would you like to pass on the NFL and get- Oh... a second college? Come on. You know where I'm at here. I have n- I've, I've been having a good read on this team.
33:26
Give me the points with the Indianapolis Colts and Anthony Richardson. I wish I could get a bet on that. Staying inside of that seven and a half. I wish I could get a bet on that.
33:33
JVTA, renowned Colts fan, but he wants the points here against the Lions. Okay. John, thank you. I appreciate it as always, man. Thanks for talking to me, guys. Appreciate it.
33:42
Jonathan Montaubal, everybody, @meJVT, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Uh, Alex Kane's gonna join us on the other side, the CEO of, uh, SportTrade.
33:51
We got Jason Weingarten coming up, uh, talking some baseball awards with it, with us. Tim Murray, college football. It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
33:59
[upbeat music] A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Oh, the VSiN Watch app. Look at it. Sexy, sleek. Works so well. Streamlined. Any other words I can come up with?
34:17
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34:42
The VSiN Watch app, free to download for both Apple and Android users, out now. Kelly's giving me a hand signal. Um, before we get to Tim Murray, [laughs]
34:56
before we get to Tim Murray, can I just say, 'cause we just talked about how that Cincinnati-Dallas game can't be flexed out on Monday night. Did you hear the other big NFL sort of broadcast news? Yeah. Beyoncé
35:09
doing halftime for one of the Christmas games. The Tex- Oh, is, is that why I was so, I was distracted by her yesterday in our post-show meeting? Oh, why, what do you mean? What happened? I don't know.
35:18
She was, uh, Beyoncé was on. Oh, by the way, what is that commercial she does where she's in the laundromat? Sh- how is that commercial allowed? That is a distracting commercial. I'm okay with it. Yeah. Very much.
35:27
I'm okay, I'm okay with it too. I'm just saying, I have no idea how that's allowed. Anyway, Texans-Baltimore halftime, um, on Christmas Day, she is doing halftime of this.
35:37
Uh, Netflix announced on Sunday, "Your early Christmas wish has been granted," they say, uh, that's what a press release said, "as Beyoncé will perform during Netflix's first-ever NFL Christmas game day."
35:48
Um, Net- Netflix said details about her performance are under wraps, but teased that Bey, that's my word, is expected to feature some special guests who are featured on her recent Cowboy Carter album.
35:59
That'll be the third NFL halftime show for Beyoncé, who previously performed at the Super Bowls in 2013 and 2016. She's doing it on, uh, on Christmas Day.
36:07
Remember that Netflix, you were talking about this the other day- Yeah... so we have the Jake Paul-Mike Tyson fight on Netflix, and all the buffering issues.
36:14
Netflix is doing two Or excuse me, both of the NFL's Christmas Day games this year as part of their wider three-year deal with the league, the Chiefs face the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first game at 1:00 Eastern, and then it's the Ravens-Texans game after that on Christmas Day, both on Netflix.
36:29
Okay. I'm, I'm, I'm rapidly Googling things, 'cause I actually thought this is where you were going with the other NFL news story. Oh.
36:35
Because Netflix, uh, I think I caught after the fight, they had, they had sent a warning to the NFL about, hey, you, uh... Or, or the NFL, sorry, had sent a warning to Netflix about- As they should...
36:45
you know, "Hey, get your stuff together." Um, and then I think I saw something come down this morning before the show of Netflix promises there's gonna be no issues. Okay. Which I don't really know- Oh, sure...
36:54
how they can promise something like that, but okay. Well, I think I speak for everybody, you better get it ready by halftime of game two. [laughs] Better get it together, 'cause that's, uh, yeah.
37:03
Man, that did not go well, Paul and Tyson, as we discussed. No, not at all. Yeah. Uh, Tim Murray is here, ladies and gentlemen. You can follow him on Twitter @1TimMurray, uh, to talk college football with us.
37:14
We're always thrilled to have, uh, Tim with us, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
37:18
He's the host of the Vesent College Football Tailgate Show each and every Saturday, and of course, the Vesent College Football Betting Podcast, which grows and grows. How you doing, Tim? I'm great, Gil.
37:28
Uh, just trying to think about the last time our Washington football franchise was a double-digit favorite against the Cowboys. We, uh, we actually covered this on Monday.
37:38
It is the fifth time, Tim, I was, I was opening, I was wondering this openly, 1989, 1990, 1991, and 2000, the only other four times that we could come up with since the databases on, uh- Wow...
37:51
spreads existed where Washington is a double-digit favorite over the Dallas Cowboys. Soak in it. Enjoy. Love it. Love it. Yeah, man. Um, would you lay the points, though? Probably not.
38:04
[laughs] I, I don't think I am either. [laughs] I don't think I want any part of that. Um, okay. Uh, by the way, do you have an NFL play before we get to college football that you like better than, than that?
38:13
Um, I haven't gotten to the window on, uh, anything yet, but certainly the Chargers plus three in the Harbowl, uh, interests me there. Uh, older brother Jim getting the best of young- younger brother John. Right?
38:27
He's older. Jim's older, right? Uh, John is older. I thought he was younger. Yeah, John. John is older, yes. John is older. Okay. Yeah. So younger brother.
38:34
Um, I think Cleveland plus three and a half interests me a little bit on, uh, on Thursday. Um, so th- I would say those are early, uh, early on the chopping block there. Okay.
38:43
Any reaction to, um, College Football Brackets Part Three last night? Anything, uh, significant to you? Yeah, I think you could get a little, uh... There, I'll start with Georgia.
38:59
Um, uh, and, and no one's gonna be sorry for Georgia, but I don't understand what they're doing.
39:04
Um, look, Georgia's got wins over Texas on the road, who inexplicably still remains number three with zero wins over top 25 teams. Their best win is over, what? Six and four Vanderbilt.
39:16
And Georgia went down and beat them by two touchdowns. Uh, yes, Georgia has losses to Alabama and Ole Miss, but they also have a win over number 11 Tennessee, and have a win over number 17 Clemson.
39:29
So like I said, no one's gonna cry for Georgia. They're an absolute superpower, have been.
39:34
I'm not saying they're perfect this year, but I just, I don't fully know, you know, what the committee is, is, k- how that's gonna play out.
39:42
And then secondly, Gil, I really believe it's setting up, like it or not, where if Indiana loses on Saturday and it's ugly, they're out. I, I think they're gonna drop like a rock.
39:54
And whether that's fair or not, I just look at the last two weeks. Georgia dropped nine spots losing to Ole Miss. BYU dropped eight spots losing to Kansas.
40:04
And to me, I think they're setting it up to potentially move Indiana down quite considerably if they were to lose ugly to Ohio State. Whether that's right or wrong, that's just kinda my gut feel there.
40:17
And then lastly, I said it two weeks ago, this is shaping up to have Boise State get a bye. And what did we see last night?
40:25
Boise State had a bye, and I think Boise State really has an opportunity ahead of them, especially if Fresno State beats Colorado State on Saturday and they get a rematch against UNLV.
40:36
I think Boise State is in decent shape to get a bye, and then that number five seed, boy, you're talking about Ohio State's path right now, guys. Look at that.
40:45
Ohio State would play, in this current situation, would play against the Big 12 champion and then Boise State. Not too shabby to try to get to the semifinals. Yeah.
40:56
Boise State is poised to get a, uh, a bye, it appears, and then the, the fifth conference, the fifth best conference champion, regardless of ranking, gets in the top 12, and that's where BYU- Right...
41:07
is currently at the very moment. I agree with what you're saying about Indiana.
41:10
It's why when, uh, Wes was on the other day, Wes Reynolds, I sorta said, "Are you braced for a, uh," you know, again, as you put it, Tim, whether it's right or wrong, "Are you braced for a shafting, uh, in, in this if, if Indiana loses big time?"
41:24
Uh, and I was mentioning earlier, Dr. Bob, who does, you know, who has models on all of these teams and is one of the great analysts of college football teams, he takes the opposite approach.
41:34
He believes that there is no way that Indiana should be knocked out of this regardless. Now obviously, if it was a ridiculous blowout, maybe that's a different story.
41:42
But if it's, if it's your normal defeat, let's say, let's say it's a 10-point defeat, uh, that there's no way that they should be knocked out of it.
41:49
And his, his sort of thinking is because even though their competition is lesser, they are beating that competition by a margin that exceeds what a normal l- w- what a, you know, a, a very good team would do.
42:03
And, and he used an analogy, if the Yankees were playing Triple A baseball teams and they were crushing them, would you think they're a lesser football team? So he was getting into it with folks on Twitter.
42:11
So it's gonna be fascinating, no question about it. Um, what did you end up with this weekend in terms of bets? Yeah, so I've got a couple, uh, in the hopper. I mentioned one already. Uh, I really like Fresno State.
42:22
They're the late night game. Uh, I think Colorado State, uh, is a bit of a paper tiger. They're undefeated in Mountain West play, uh, but I think this is the spot where rubber meets the road.
42:32
Uh, I laid a short money line price. If you wanna lay the three, I'm not opposed to that either.
42:36
Uh, I, I just think this is a spot where Fresno State, you know, interim head coach, I think they take care of business here. Uh, so I, I laid three. I laid, you know, the money line.
42:46
I think the official play I put into the, uh, the picks page was, was money line, uh, on this particular game.
42:52
Couple other ones that are interesting, and I'll give you more sexy match-ups as opposed to one of the more kind of obscure ones that I bet on. Um, you know, look, if we get back to three, I'll be in on Kansas again.
43:04
I was on Kansas last week, uh, against BYU. Um, you know, I was not overly impressed by Kansas, though, on Saturday night at BYU. And remember, this is a neutral site game. This isn't a true home game.
43:17
This is at Arrowhead. This isn't in Lawrence. Uh, just remembering if you're, you know, handicapping, uh, this particular game. So that was one that I'm, I'm waiting to see if I get the three.
43:27
I was able to grab a three early. So certainly wouldn't recommend it right now at the current price. Uh, I think Nebraska takes care of Wisconsin, uh, on, uh, on Saturday. I think that's, you know, it's a crazy stat.
43:38
How about this, Gil? Nebraska, who hasn't been to a bowl since 2016- Man... has lost eight straight games when trying to obtain [laughs] that sixth win. Oh, man.
43:50
[laughs] So it's, uh, it's been pretty brutal for, uh, for the Badgers, uh, for the Cornhuskers, excuse me. Uh, and then lastly, I'll give you a w- a wild one as we, uh, as we bid farewell.
44:01
Uh, Syracuse went out to Cal, won as a double-digit dog last week. Next week, Gil, in the Carrier Dome, or whatever they call their stadium these days- [laughs]... they get to not try to knock off Miami.
44:15
This week, they've gotta welcome in UConn, and it ain't a basketball game. It's a football game. UConn coming off a bye. Jim Mora Jr., I think, is a very good coach, at least in the collegiate ranks.
44:27
Give me the 10 and a half with UConn against Syracuse in a sleepy sandwich spot there up in, uh, upstate New York. Tim Murray, everybody. Carrier Dome. I believe it's still called the Carrier Dome, isn't it?
44:39
Giving me visions- It's got some other news. I don't know Yeah. Giving me visions of Pearl Washington and Eric Sanifer. Appreciate that. Thank you, Tim. I appreciate it very much, man. Of course, Gil. See you, man.
44:49
Tim Murray, everybody, once again, uh, host of VSAN College Football Tailgate Show, and of course, College Football Betting Podcast as well. Jason Weingarten on Major League Baseball Awards next.
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