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Nov 27, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | November 27, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | November 27, 2024
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46:23
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Transcript
0:00
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0:24
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander. Gone Vsin. Time to get funky, radical hip as I get to the point.
0:37
Rock this funky joint. Let's do it. It's a numbers game. Vsin.com, Vsin app, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, every ticket is in. We appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Midlan on the day before Thanksgiving.
0:50
That was the best show intro you've ever done. Eh. I liked it. I usually go party people, but I had that in, I was having my head. It was in the car on the way in, so I had to get... Once you get it out- Yeah, yeah...
0:59
it doesn't- It helps... it helps. Yeah. Um, a little poor righteous teachers to start out the morning. Uh, on the show today, by the way, happy Thanksgiving, everybody.
1:06
I know it's the day before Thanksgiving, but I hope you're, uh, you're traveling safely today, wherever it is that you are going to spend the holidays, uh, with family.
1:14
We have a show today that, uh, includes a lot of college basketball.
1:17
Uh, Jim Root from Three Man Weave will be here, uh, as will Dallin Cuff from ESPN, who has not one, not three, but six picks to give us in college hoops today. Six bets.
1:30
Oh, a little ch- little champions league too from him as well. A little champions league. So yeah, he's got a little bit of everything. By the way, did you go to any of the college basketball that's in town yesterday?
1:37
No, I did not. It sort of snuck up on me. We had great games. Duke was in action last night. Plus, plus we got a great tip after the show yesterday on one of them, right? Yes, we did. We gotta talk about that.
1:46
Can we, can we just talk about that real quick? [laughs] Oh, well, before we do this. Sorry. Sorry, it's like, uh, you just get distracted. Matt Brown will be here, and he won't be here, but he'll be on the show with us.
1:55
A little primetime action reunion. Yeah. Talk National Football League with us, Jason Weigart and JVT, not only on the NBA, but also, uh, what he's thinking in football.
2:04
I wanna, I wanna see what JVT thinks the, uh, scenario's gonna end up being in college football as we are approaching a solidified college football playoff situation. Um, and I think I got to all the guests.
2:16
I did, I do believe we do. We'll also do, uh, updated, adjusted season win totals in the NFL. I look back at mine, uh, kind of a mixed bag now. Yeah. Kind of a mixed bag. I did the same thing yes- Yeah...
2:26
uh, yesterday as well. If we have time, we'll, we'll review the list and see, yeah. We will. Oh, we, we'll have time. We'll do that. And then, uh, our NFL power rankings.
2:33
Oh, let's get into that at, at w- as well at some point. Um, the, what you were referring to is we, we often have lovely listeners to this show, the best listeners of any show- Mm-hmm...
2:42
uh, in the history of radio, I believe we think it is. Yeah, yep. Since Marconi figured out this radio thing, best listeners ever. I checked in with historians. They agreed. That's true. Yeah, yeah, they agreed. Yep.
2:52
So guy walks up to the show yesterday, uh, l- great listener to the show, a loyal listener. Wait, wait, first of all, shout out to Larry Fresh who's been hanging out- Yes... all week pretty much.
3:01
Brian came by and talked- Yes... to us for a while yesterday. I, actually, I think he kind of swayed us a little bit on a win total w- uh, coming up in our conversation. He did. Yeah. I thought about that. Yeah. He did.
3:11
I, I thought about him as I was doing it. Um, but, but- Butts the King... but then a, a guy walks up in the middle. He says, "Hey, uh," and I didn't really catch him at first.
3:18
He's like, "Hey, I'm Kelly, the sausage king of, of where? Omaha?" Omaha. [laughs] And I'm like, "Wait, wait, I'm Gil. I'm not Kelly." He goes, "No, no, I'm Kelly." I was like, "Oh, okay. And you're the what?"
3:27
He goes, "I'm the sausage king of Omaha." You're not usually, you don't usually get that kind of intro from somebody. No, you do not. You do not. But he's, he's wearing a Creighton jacket of some kind. Mm-hmm.
3:36
S- some C- Creighton gear, and he goes, "Hey, fade Creighton today." Gives us a great two-minute breakdown of like- He's like the g-... this is what's gonna happen... point guard's out. Here's what happens.
3:45
Here's what happens. They pack the defense down and, and, uh, and Colt Brennan doesn't do anything against, uh, San Diego State.
3:52
So it's, you know, he, he just broke it down perfectly, and sure enough, Creighton got just destroyed as four-and-a-half point favorites against, uh, against San Diego State yesterday.
4:01
Oh, oh, and he didn't say take the points. It was grab the money line. Play them on the money line. So thank you, Kelly, sausage king of Omaha. [laughs] More- I'd like to be this.
4:10
The more I thought about it last night, Gil, there's a chance, 'cause he had great hair too. He did. There's a chance- Yeah... that it was me time traveling back from the future. Very true. Very true.
4:18
But he looked enough like my father. You know my favorite, uh, so thank you to Kelly. Maybe he's my real dad. [laughs] Sorry, Thad Midlan. Sorry you had to hear it that way.
4:28
Um, the other thing that I've loved about this week on the show, besides all of that, but which we love when, when listeners come, uh, uh, up to us after the show, but I like that we had a couple guests this week that have really genuinely angered listeners.
4:41
Hmm. Uh, Drew Dinsick was on. Not that I like to see y'all angered, but, but I, I like that there's a, a bit of controversy. Drew came on. He still is not buying the Detroit Lions in 2024. Yep.
4:52
He's not buying it, and so there were some Lions fans that really got upset with that, that, that tweeted in. More outrage over that than his Mahomes MVP t- uh, takes. Yes. Yes, much more outrage over that.
5:02
Um, and by the way, Aaron Schatz's updated DVOA numbers on the Detroit Lions, fifth-best team through 11 games of all... Oh, excuse me, sixth-best through 11 games of all time. Would you like to know? No, no, fifth-best.
5:16
Would you like to know the four teams in front? Sure.
5:18
Uh, the 2007 New England Patriots, the 1991 Washington Redskins, largely believed to be the two best teams of all time, the 1998 Denver Broncos, also a Super Bowl champion, and, uh, the 1985 Chicago Bears, famously, you know, the, the most devastating defense of all time, all of which won Super Bowls.
5:40
Detroit Lions 2024 is fifth. Okay, that's pretty- Okay... pretty good company right there. So, so Drew got people upset.
5:45
Where did we have, we had, uh, didn't we have the Niners and, who was it, Niners and Ravens last year up there in the three? Niners and Ravens last year. By the way, the- Up to a week...
5:52
by the way, the Ravens offense of this year, so glad you bring that up, so I might, I might as well be thorough with the rest of the, uh, Aaron Schatz stuff. The Ar- the, uh, the Ravens...
6:03
offense this year is, ready for this? Mm-hmm. Through DVOA, Aaron, Aaron Schatz's proprietary stat, is the seventh best offense through 12 games, by the way, through 12 games this year.
6:15
Seventh best offense, the 2024 Ravens offense, the 2007 Patriots being the best offense of all time through 12 games. Um, and, and here's, here's the other one I wanna say. The, the worst DVOA of 10-and-1 teams, okay?
6:32
Mm. 10-and-1 teams are better in the history of DVOA, his proprietary stat since 1979, the Kansas City Chiefs, the 2024 10-and-1 Chiefs are the fourth worst 10-and-1 team of all time.
6:47
10-and-1 or better team of all time through 12 games, through 11 games in this case. I w- I wish I could say that surprised me, but it doesn't. It doesn't surprise me at all. Yeah, it doesn't. It doesn't.
6:56
Yeah, by the way, the three that were worse, and I don't remember any of these teams offhand, but the '94 Broncos were 10-and-1, the 2012 Falcons were 10-and-1, and the, and last year's Eagles were 10-and-1 and then collapsed.
7:08
Hmm. So he was right about that. Yeah. That one makes, that one makes sense. Yeah. Yeah, the Chiefs one, man, I think it's...
7:14
This could be a very, very interesting season to look back on if [laughs] they end up, if they end up winning. It, I mean, AFC Super Bowl, whatever, just 'cause it is...
7:24
Uh, we can say everything we want about these teams, but at the end of the day, it, it, it, it's Mahomes and Andy Reid, and they're getting it done when it matters the most. We've seen it too many times before.
7:32
We've seen it so many times. We don't wanna be dumb again. Yep. Um, the other thing, by the way, you know, the other thing that got people all riled up this week more than anything else? What? Futak yesterday.
7:41
Oh, really? Oh, yeah. Futak, because Futak s- I love him this time of year. [laughs] He's so great. He just makes people angry.
7:48
S- because Futak, we were talking about the Heisman Trophy, and I made a bet on Ashton Jeanty at plus 750, and I was just trying to get his... He's a Heisman voter. He's one of 938 Heisman voters.
7:57
And he said something at the beginning, which I don't know that I caught on air, which is, you know, "People don't really see Ashton Jeanty." He sort of re- you know, he threw- Mm-hmm... that in, and then he went on.
8:08
And so, all, all, you know, uh, we got multiple tweets from people who were like, "How can he say that people don't see Ashton Jeanty? He's a Heisman voter."
8:15
If you're a Heisman voter, the tone of these tweets was, "Shouldn't you, shouldn't you watch these players? Shouldn't you go out of your way even to tape," old school term- Yeah... "and watch these players?"
8:26
And, uh, what, and since they mentioned that, I did notice th- th- it was sort of like by the end of the segment, remember when I was talking about McCaffrey versus, uh, Derrick Henry?
8:35
'Cause Ashton Jeanty's season is very comparable to Derrick Henry's, uh, from 2015 when he won the Heisman, and I made the, the comment, "Yeah, he, he got the Heisman, but Christian McCaffrey should have."
8:45
And I was like, "None of y'all watched Christian McCaffrey that year either."
8:47
And then in the same breath, right, the same breath that he's saying that nobody sees Ashton Jeanty, he was like, "Oh, we all saw Christian McCaffrey." No, you didn't. No, no, no. No, you didn't. None of y'all did.
8:57
At the East Coast, it was... Andrew Luck and Christian McCaffrey's college careers, I get it, you saw them sometimes. You didn't see a- anywhere close to even 50% of their careers.
9:06
You, you, you saw the fi- the five big games or whatever that year. Yeah. Like, that is... I, and hon- honestly, I don't think that much has, not that much has changed.
9:14
Like, some of this, some of this used to be, you know, 30, 40 years ago, right? It used to be television problems. There's not been enough that's changed between McCaffrey and now- Yeah...
9:23
Gil, that that could still be the resulting answer of what hap- happens with Jeanty this year. People forget how dark ages 2015 was when it came to that- Right... kind of stuff. No, but like this is- Yeah...
9:32
I mean, really the only- But I know what you're saying... the only thing that's really changed in my mind between McCaffrey and now is that, okay, what we have more games on more nights of the week. Yeah. Right?
9:41
O- otherwise, it's- I do think people are a little more, like, may- and maybe, maybe not. Maybe we're in a cocoon here, right?
9:47
Maybe we're very close to the sun on this stuff, that we think everybody sees everything, but maybe not. Maybe you're right. Maybe it is the same.
9:53
I, all I got, all I can tell you is, is there is one, there is one Heisman voter that I worked with that I wouldn't have trusted anything he put down on a ballot.
10:02
That, that's all, that's all I'll say, 'cause it, what we're talking about right now I know is the case.
10:06
And maybe that's the takeaway from that conversation is while we're betting on this, then we act, when we talk to an actual voter, we're like, "Oh, you don't, you don't even..."
10:16
[laughs] You know, like you go away really depressed. You're like, "Oh." I mean, when it's 900 something, we talked about it yesterday. Yeah.
10:21
And I don't know how often they are checking in on people's credentials- Oh, man... updating that list. That feels like a big part of the problem.
10:28
Real quick, 'cause we, uh, we didn't get to this yesterday, and I don't know how much, how deep we're gonna get into any of this, but we were gonna go over some NFL awards. This is the rapid fire version of that.
10:35
MVP, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, one, two at the top of this market.
10:40
Saquon became the third short shot last, uh, last week after his, uh, 255, uh, yard rushing performance this past week and just setting records, franchise records for the Eagles.
10:50
Uh, you still feel like it's, uh, Lamar Jackson, right? It is.
10:53
I've been get- I, I, I know I've mentioned it a couple times, I've been getting close to a bet, but you know what, Gil, as we were working on, you know, I was doing my prep work for Win Till Wednesday is coming up next year, just looking at that Ravens schedule, I, a- and I think this was part of Drew's point yesterday.
11:09
It was. The record could end up just not being good enough for him to be, uh, uh, for him to go out and win it, and that's, that's the only thing that's holding me back right now. 27 touchdown passes and three picks.
11:19
I know. Yeah. I mean, if I had to bet it right now, it w- he, it would only be Lamar Jackson. Offensive Player of the Year, Saquon, the appropriate big favorite. Should he be this big of a favorite, over $3? Yeah.
11:28
Uh, he's come back. What are we, minus 275 now at DraftKings- Little bit, yeah... at le- at least, so it has come back a little bit. I think that's probably properly priced.
11:37
I think when we brought it up on, uh, what was that, Monday, what the pricing was, that seemed a little much. Was it 350 or something when we first talked about it? Yeah, now it's two, 275, and Derrick Henry's plus 275.
11:47
This feels more accurate. Yeah, probably so. And then Defensive Player of the Year, what do you think as we go out here? Anything? I don't know. Like, this is... Is it just gonna be T.J.
11:55
Watt 'cause it's the Steelers and the Steelers' defense? Like, I kinda think that's the case. I think this is the most... Yeah, um, he's minus 200. Everybody else is 12 to 1 or longer.
12:05
I kinda feel like this is the most just sort of by acclamation- Right... one. Uh, we'll do Coach of the Year on the other side as well. We'll talk to Jim Root, college basketball as well.
12:23
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13:03
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13:14
Gil Alexander, we got tweets at Beating The Book. Cheap prop bets. If you could in fact travel back in time and could make only one massive bet and your winnings are the same, which market are you selecting?
13:25
And your winnings are the same. Yeah, I d- I actually didn't read that part of it. I just read the beginning and imme- I actually replied, immediately replied with Jake Paul, just 'cause I'm still angry about that. Yeah.
13:34
I to- I told you, I'm gonna be angry for the rest of 2024. I don't know, bet more on Mayweather, I guess, kind of thing, even though I bet a lot. Mm-hmm. Spence, Spence CC.
13:42
Isn't the case, isn't this the case with all awards voters? See Rudy Gobert last year. I think mainly they get it right overall, but it's almost like they think, "What's the very minimum I can do here?"
13:50
Talking about Heisman. Uh, I kind of agree with that, Spence. After hearing Futak yesterday, you're probably right. [laughs] Like, most of these, most of these 938 Heisman voters are just gonna mail it in with, "Oh, who?
14:00
Travis Hunter? Plays both sides? Okay, sure." I mean, I think there are any award, right? Yes, there are gonna be some people that take it far more seriously than others.
14:10
Uh, Joby, The Real Joby, "Meant to tweet this yesterday, but I was so shook. Have you seen the new Jardiance commercial?
14:14
The song and, and catchy jingle have been completely overshadowed by the laundry list of side effects, possible lower limb loss amongst them." What? Oh, we can't have that. Yeah, I don't know.
14:24
I don't know if I've seen that one. Shades of Mako also mad at Futak. He says, "I had to look up Boise, uh, Boise's TV schedule. In order: ESPNU, Peacock, FS1, FS2, CBS Sports Network, FS1, [laughs]
14:37
Fox, CBS Sports Network, Fox this weekend." If FS- if FS1 has been so inaccessible to Futak, he can finally watch Gen Z on Fox this weekend. So this was kind of my point, though.
14:45
The only one you really rattled off there was, what? Peacock? Was that one? Like, that would have, like, in the McCaffrey days, that would have been the only one that wasn't available. F- F- uh, uh, F- FS1 was around.
14:55
Uh, they didn't, uh, they did not show Stanford football when it was Luck and McCaffrey. It was just not on that often. It really wasn't, my recollection. Bert Wedemeyer, "Great podcast as usual.
15:06
A lot of F-bombs with a young Stormy in the house. She is a trooper. All in good fun. Have a happy Thanksgiving, guys and gals." You too. Jamie Leyva, "Does Abe Froman Sausage King have any other plays for today?
15:14
Take it easy tonight on Drinksgiving, Mr. Bidlin." I don't know. I hope he stops by again. We're gonna need you at full strength tomorrow. Have a great day, gentlemen. You too.
15:21
Uh, and Brandon Kyle says, "Gil, if nothing else, you'll get, uh, you'll get live through those adjusted win total bets through the lens of Hard Knocks AFC North starting December 3rd, I'm pretty sure."
15:30
Looking forward to that. Uh, Jason Stark is mad at me 'cause he says, "Doing it again, huh? Glutton for punishment, but the Steelers unders." [laughs] Jason. And then Prime Time says, "Yo, hey man, I'm sorry.
15:42
Am I crazy or is this choreography team at Jardiance mailing it in with the newest commercials?" People are all, uh, all shook up over that.
15:48
He says, "Since your interview with the OG lady, subsequent dances are most definitely minus EV." Negative, negative EV. Oh, yeah, pull, I'm pulling it up right now. Yeah, I've seen this before.
15:56
And last two, Kiss The Degenerate, "Is it wrong of me feeling motivated to listen to the NFL Megapod just to hear Stormy's foul potty mouth? Actually very excited about it."
16:03
[laughs] And then, and then, uh, Larry Fresh, uh, "Shout out to Stormy for doing the Megapod. Hopefully she returns next year." Good friend Chillionaire says, "Babes was the other B you were looking for."
16:14
And Matt Krallin, "Kelvin, LOL. Nerd humor. Nerd humor is one of the many reasons this show kills." Thank you. Glad you appreciate it. I had those four B's all loaded up and I totally blanked on the last one.
16:25
[laughs] JVT is in the house, @meJVT on Twitter. He is the host of, uh, VSIN Prime Time, and of course, our NBA senior analyst, but he goes well beyond the NBA. He joins us now from his, uh, place.
16:35
Happy Thanksgiving, John. Uh, Happy Thanksgiving, guys. I don't wanna derail anything, but I would like to go back.
16:41
Was somebody telling you that they couldn't watch Ashton Jeanty, and thus they're not gonna vote for him for Heisman? They weren't saying, "And thus," they didn't go as far.
16:47
Peter Futak from College Football News, he didn't go as far as saying, "And thus I won't vote for him," but he was... I, I was saying, "Isn't the..." I was making the case for Jeanty at plus 750. Right.
16:56
And he was talking about how, yeah, most of these voters probably don't even see him. That's fucking- And, uh, yeah, people went crazy, as they should. Yeah. I mean, look, if, if...
17:05
And I say this a lot about, like, the NBA awards, right? Like, and this is a little bit different because the NBA awards are tied financially to these guys, right?
17:12
Like, certain, when it comes to, uh, max contracts, things like that, they're tied into how many all-NBA teams, you know, things like that, whatever.
17:18
Um, if you have a vote in anything, it is your job to do your due diligence. So stay up a little bit late, watch the games. It's 2024, uh, there's YouTube, there's all sorts of things.
17:26
That, that's probab- that's pretty insane if that's actually true for some of these folks, so. Yeah. It's a little disheartening to hear.
17:31
But I think we're, I think, again, all of us who are betting on these things are always sadly surprised by... Remember when Lebatard, like, sell, sold his MV- his, uh, Major League Baseball- Oh, yeah... vote?
17:43
Like, he gave it away to somebody. I mean, it's like that, that kind of stuff, right? So. I believe, but I believe his was actually the Hall of Fame ballot, was it not? It was.
17:50
Like, he was trying to prove a point- Yes... about the whole steroid thing or whatever. But regardless, to your point, I actually go back two years ago where the Kings, I don't know what was happening with the Kings.
17:58
I wanna say one of their players was up for an award potentially, or whatever it was.
18:02
But regardless, after the All-Star break, the Kings finally have a primetime game on ESPN, and Michael Wilbon openly admits that this is gonna be, like, the second time he watched them. Oh. And he's an awards voter. Oh.
18:12
Like, [laughs] things like that are absolutely insane to me. It's insane. I, I just don't get it. Yeah. Do you have a Heisman bet, uh, John? I do. I, I still, I still think I'm a little bit of life here with Cam Ward.
18:21
So I've got a couple, like, the, the big long shots are dead. You know, I had Rocco Becht at, uh, at 10,000 to 1. Uh, he's obviously not gonna get there. Had, um, Della Rile at 500 to 1.
18:29
That was eliminated a long time ago. So the one that's still got some legs is Cam Ward, if he can, of course, go on, maybe win a conference championship game, be a one-loss quarterback. His numbers are very good.
18:38
The question is just, right, like, how do you measure what you guys were referencing, which is, you know, some pretty good and bonkers numbers for a quarterback that might lead a one-loss ACC champ versus a two-way player on a team that's got those losses not competing for their conference championship.
18:52
It'll be really interesting to see, 'cause I feel like I've got a small advantage because, like you guys were talking about, right?
18:57
Voters are lazy, and they'll just go, "That quarterback in Miami, he's got some pretty good numbers. Let's give it to this guy."
19:01
[laughs] Um, so maybe that's gonna help, but that's the only one I've got him alive at 10 to 1 for Cam Ward. We'll do this in reverse order since we're on college football.
19:08
Give me your, uh, give me the JVT, uh, scenario that you think is gonna play out. What's your most controversial opinion, uh, as to how you think this is gonna play out for the playoffs?
19:18
Yeah, I don't know if this is controversial, but I'll stick with the ACC.
19:21
You know, I was talking about this with Tim yesterday, where it seems very likely that we're gonna get two ACC teams in, potentially, and I think that that should keep out a team like Alabama, who for some reason is the talk of the town, but they're setting it up.
19:31
I mean, Tim brought up a great point when we talked about it yesterday, you know, where they're ahead of Ole Miss, South Carolina, and should one of these teams ahead of them fall back out, then maybe they're gonna have to force their way in.
19:39
But if you look at both SMU and Miami, and you have them both in an ACC championship game, and it's a tightly fought contest where both team, you know, whoever loses, loses by a single score, a field goal, a touchdown, whatever it may be.
19:52
You would think if they both win, of course, and, and move on in terms of winning their 11th game this coming weekend, then you're probably not gonna fall that far.
20:00
You're probably talking about two top eight teams at the very least. Would that one loss in a conference championship be enough, especially if it's a tight one, to knock you out of the playoff? I would say no.
20:09
So I think that I'm looking at that, the fact that we're probably gonna get two ACC teams in, and you're laying a pretty short price on SMU, like I think minus 170 to make it to the playoff.
20:17
Like, I wouldn't say no to that, 'cause I do think that this is a very good team that obviously can compete with the bad defensive team, Miami.
20:22
Uh, and I think there's a pretty clear path for both of them to making it to the playoff. I noted exactly what Tim did, that Alabama was, uh, nicely ensconced- Yep...
20:29
at number 13, just, uh, just on the outside looking in, just in case. Uh- Just in case. Yeah... what's your favorite college football play this weekend? So I think there's a couple, uh, that are really interesting to me.
20:37
I, I'll, I'll point out one, and this has moved, so I want to see if this comes back, but, uh, Boise State is laying a pretty big number here against Oregon State, 19. Wait to see if this climbs back up there.
20:47
But Oregon State, I talked about this yesterday with Lombardi Line, I think they're in a pretty good situation. They finally got off the schneid. They went out right against Washington State.
20:53
And I think the sneaky part about what Boise State is facing right now is they are one that, uh, you know, controls their own destiny, if you will. But they don't need style points. They don't need any of this.
21:02
They just need to win and move on, and they will be into the college football playoff. They will get their bye week.
21:06
And so I do wonder if there's going to be a sense of, "If we're in control of this game," should that appear so, "then we're going to be able to call the dogs off."
21:12
But irregardless of that, I just think Boise's really been in good form. We're talking about a team in the last six games that's covered three of them.
21:18
One of them was one of the most ridiculous beats you'll see in college football this year, the San Jose State game, which of course I was on, watching that, uh, absolutely melt down.
21:25
They, they've been in these one-score games in the fourth quarters with lesser teams, Hawaii, Nevada. You know, the list goes on. I don't think that this is a team that is really peaking at the right time.
21:32
And of course, we saw Ashton Jeanty. He's gonna play, there's no worry, but gets a little dinged up.
21:36
You do wonder if maybe they're gonna have some bigger things on their mind as they look ahead to a mountainous championship game, which right now seems to be UNLV as they're 17 and a half point favorites against Nevada.
21:44
So Oregon State catching the points there against Boise State would be at the top of the list. And I'll say really quickly, uh, San Jose State laying three against Stanford, too. This is all on Black Friday.
21:53
I think Spartans are in a pretty good spot. Two really tough losses, right? You lost to Boise State. You lost in a mon- a monsoon to UNLV. But now here you get Stanford coming off of the big game against Cal.
22:02
They blew that against them as a 14-point underdog. Now you gotta go on the road with a little bit of a rest disadvantage. I think it sets up well for the Spartans there on Black Friday.
22:09
NBA tonight, non-cup games, anything? Yeah, it l- means a little bit more, man. These, uh, NBA cup games have been absolutely fantastic, so I'm a little down to watch this slate tonight.
22:18
No, I, I'd say there's a couple of things. Uh, first off, uh, Atlanta catching the points against Cleveland. Uh, so I took a little 10 and a half here with Atlanta.
22:25
Obviously, the Hawks are getting a little bit healthier here at this point right now. Only Trae Young on the injury report.
22:30
Uh, but you have your litany of wing defenders that are gonna be out there and, and ready and available for you.
22:34
Uh, this is a two-day rest advantage for Cleveland, but I think Atlanta's gonna be pretty live here against the Cavaliers to stay inside of that number. I've liked what I've seen from them.
22:41
And then Kelly and I were texting about this earlier, uh, but did like two and a half with OKC against Golden State with the thought that Steph Curry will not play tonight. John, happy Thanksgiving.
22:50
Enjoy the holiday, man. Happy Thanksgiving, guys. Thank you very much. @meJVT is where you can find John on Twitter, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
22:57
Uh, Jason Weingarten, Dallin Cuff, Matt Brown, it's all coming up. Numbers Game, VSAN, V Sports Betting Network. [upbeat music] Betting on sports can be hard, but hiring Morgan & Morgan is easy.
23:11
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23:20
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23:35
You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSAN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSAN, V Sports Betting Network. Visa.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV.
23:48
However you take it in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It is Kelly Bidlin, Kelly Bidlin. Producer number nine, so much more than a producer. You good? I'm good, man. Yeah. Just happy to be here.
23:59
Like your purple shirt there. Oh, thanks. Very nice. You said that last time I wore it, too. Yeah, I like it. [laughs] I like your shirt.
24:03
Uh, still to come this hour, uh, Dallin Cuff from ESPN talk Champions League and college hoops with us. He's got six plays, six plays in college hoops.
24:11
Uh, Matt Brown, who is our old, uh, pr- uh, Primetime action buddy, VSAN's own Matt Brown, uh, will not be joining us in studio, but we'll have him via Skype...
24:20
uh, for a little Primetime Action reunion, get his NFL thoughts for week 13, including the Thanksgiving and Black Friday games. Jason, uh, Weingarten standing by.
24:28
Uh, first, by the way, I was saying at the beginning of the show, what was, what I like is that people were getting mad at Drew and at Pete this week. You know what people love, though, more than anything?
24:36
Just a confirmation of that. Survivor talk. We talked to Jake Bensequin, who's one of the, uh, remaining, has one of the remaining 54 entries in Survivor.
24:44
You put that clip up on Twitter and b- you blink, and it's like, yep. Oh, it's wild. It's wild. The views, it's like tens of thousands immediately. Yeah. People love that stuff.
24:52
Then we had the, uh, uh, the, the Survivor documentary one making the, uh, rounds as well. Oh, man. Oh, it's tough to watch.
24:59
That, that Survivor documentary one is, is the camera on a gentleman who had the Commanders, and the camera is on him. And you don't e- it's not, there was no even explanation necessary.
25:11
You know by the game's events, right? Right. You know, so he, it's first Terry McLaurin, the greatest w- you know, the incomparable- Oh, here it is right there... the incomparable Terry McLaurin.
25:20
This is, uh, courtesy of Steven Schulanski and the Survivor doc. This is the gentleman who's going crazy when McLaurin is doing his thing down the field for the DC Skins, 84 to the hizzy. Oh, he's going nuts.
25:30
This is happening. It's a miracle. And if you just play this out, we all know what's about to happen. [laughs] It's so bad. He doesn't, though, of course, right? He's, uh, here it is. Here it is. Let me cut forward.
25:40
Here's the extra point. Extra point. Extra point from Austin Seibert. It's up. And he's trying to calm everybody down before it, too. Oh. And boom. Oh, it's so tough to watch.
25:51
Dude, can I, uh, can we be serious for a second? That is brutal. Oh, it's awful. There is, there is nothing worse than losing in Survivor late in a season. To lose like that, oh, poor dude.
26:05
And, and, and have to know the whole time you're on camera, too. Oy. Oh, man. Oy. Uh, we got tweets @bethebook. Brosek1870, "Take a look at Jonathan Greenard for Defensive Player of the Year.
26:15
High up in sacks and hurries." Uh, Greenard of the, uh, Vikings. Mm-hmm. Mm, I don't know if I can get there.
26:22
We were saying before, Defensive Player of the Year feels like the most just by acclamation award that we've ever seen. I mean, Defensive Player and, and Defensive Rookie of the Year- And Defensive-...
26:30
are both just kinda, I don't wanna say boring to me. Yeah. I just don't have a, I don't have a good take. I don't have a good bet on any of them.
26:35
RichPSM, "Worst Heisman West Coast blunder was Marshall Faulk in 1992, beaten by Gino Torretta. Yes, Faulk had almost 2,000 yards total, 11 touchdowns. Gino was on a number one team, threw for 19 touchdowns.
26:46
One kind of lasted longer in the NFL." [laughs] That, dude, people forget, uh, and this is why Rich, RichPSM- Yeah... this is why I bring up the McCaffrey thing. People forget the East Coast bias was real back then.
26:58
Like, it was just ridiculous. It was so bad. Uh, ShadesofMako says, "For the Stanford guy, uh, for the Stanford days, I believe Pac-12 had their own network, which made finding those games a little harder."
27:08
Oh, that could be, yeah. That's what it was. Yeah, that could be true. Yep. That's exactly what it was. And Jody Boggs says, "We gotta know Stormy's first impression of Todd.
27:14
Todd was definitely on fire on the Megapod, uh, with Gil and Will." Uh, her first impressions, I, I kind of warned her a little bit. Yeah, I think you warned her multiple times. Yeah. You know?
27:22
I was like, "Hey, just so you know." [laughs] I think I heard you warn her multiple times. I didn't, I didn't want her going into it cold and being all surprised. Um, I think she enjoyed herself.
27:31
Yeah, I think she enjoyed herself. I think she was being genuine when she said that. Uh, Jason Weingarten is here courtesy of the Progressive guest line. He comes to us from under a cloud of smoke in Southern Cali.
27:41
You can find him on Twitter @Spreadapedia. What's happening, man? Not much. Uh, you know, I think today is actually the first day in, like, five, six weeks without a football game. Is, is that correct?
27:51
Oh, do we really have no- Oh, yeah... there's no random college football? There's, there's no Matchin tonight. Yeah, today's the day. Nothing. Plenty of college hoops, though. That's for sure. Oh, yeah.
27:58
But you're right, today's the one non... By the way, I- And then, like, all the NBA and NHL, right? 'Cause they take off tomorrow... speaking of that, I had an in-game on Toledo last night, plus three and a half.
28:07
They're down seven and nothing at halftime, uh, to, uh, Akron. I know. This is my life. Yeah, it's... Why are you trying to go up against the Zips? Come on. They are, they were down, they were down 14 to nothing.
28:18
They come back, 'cause they're a way better team. They come back.
28:20
They tie it up 14 a piece, and they have a, a chip shot field goal to win the game, and their kicker, who had already missed a chip shot, not to mention a 40-something yarder, misses the chip shot. They lose in overtime.
28:31
It's just, like, one of these brutal losses. You're like, how, how can you possibly lose this? And yet they did. Yeah. Matchin. There you go, Matchin.
28:39
Uh, let me ask you before we get to your, uh, your, some of your football awards thoughts. Blake Snell signs yesterday, uh, Jason, with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
28:47
Blake Snell, who most recently, of course, played for the Giants, won a Cy Young, his second Cy Young right before that with the Padres. He stays in division. He goes to the world champion Dodgers.
28:57
Five years, $182 million. And we were talking about this a little, uh, over the break. Uh, you, uh, one of the things is there's a, there's a bit of outrage about it.
29:09
Uh, outrage might be a little strong, but there's certainly a little bit of, uh, anger and deflation about it, the fact that, uh, Blake Snell, two-time Cy Young Award winner, goes to the Dodgers, because of course he does, because there's no salary cap and they can just spend all the money in the world.
29:25
Um, you guys, your guys' reaction to that was, "Well, are you surprised?" No, we're not surprised, but you shouldn't be surprised that people are mad either. Does that kinda sum it up?
29:34
Yeah, but I mean, I think the outrage is, should be, you know, the, the same outrage should have been there last off-season when Blake Snell was a free agent for 115 days and didn't get an offer for, from anybody until spring training started.
29:49
Mm-hmm. Every, every team in baseball had an opportunity to sign Blake Snell to a long-term contract last off-season. Every team in baseball had an opportunity to sign Blake Snell to a long-term contract this off-season.
30:00
So if you're mad that the Dodgers did it, you should write a letter to the owner of your favorite team, encourage them to spend more money or sell the team, 'cause the Dodgers are clearly committed to building the best organization they possibly can, and, you know, other organizations in baseball aren't.
30:14
That's not the Dodgers' fault that they're trying to be better than everybody else. That's everybody else's fault for not being committed to being a winner. Now, listen, Jason, I know you're not a Dodgers fan.
30:23
Let's get that out of the way first. I'm absolutely not a Dodgers fan. Not, not even remotely. Okay. I completely get it. This is what, this is what Kelly was accusing me of being a Niners fan last week.
30:31
[laughs] I'm like, "What are you talking about?" Well, this is step up. This is smaller market teams, fine. You're gonna st- yeah, steal money from the cities to build stadiums and everything like that.
30:40
If you wanna, uh, if you're a fan of one of these teams, be angry at your own ownership. Okay, this is a wonderful argument, but let me just ask you guys this.
30:47
[laughs] Does it get to a point where a team is so off the charts good with talent, right, that let's just say...
30:53
And I'm not saying this is what their season win total's gonna be, but let's say it did get so gaudy, right, that it got into the, uh, north of 105. Let's just play along, right?
31:02
Like, it, it probably won't, but let's say it does. Um, d- d- I guess the, the question is does imbalance bo- bother you at any point?
31:11
Or is it just like, "Hey, they still gotta win it on the field regardless of how the f- the fact that they can outspend teams tenfold."
31:20
You know, I think a lot of it, it's not just about outspending, 'cause you look and they got the deferments. They have almost a billion dollars in deferments to five players on their roster.
31:29
So, uh, a lot of it doesn't come down to them spending. It's the financial engineering that I think people are upset about, and it's just at the end of the day, as a matter of fact, the Dodgers are a good organization.
31:41
Players wanna come and play for good organizations, and they're willing to defer money to play with other good players to play at good organizations.
31:48
Like, if, if your team is not competing, then I suggest going out and hiring all the drive line people you can hire and put them in your front office and start listening to them.
31:58
And maybe in a couple years you can catch up to the Dodgers if you work incredibly hard and put millions and millions of dollars into your front office and baseball operations like they do every year.
32:06
And, and, like, o- of course, the imbalance bothers me. Yes, Gil, it bothers me. Change the sport then. S- set a salary cap. Yeah. Change how it's done. That's not the Dodgers' fault. No. That's a baseball problem.
32:16
Yeah, it's very Dodgers fan-y from a non-Dodgers fan. And it's, it's- That's what I'm saying...
32:19
it's also just, just a matter of fact, the Dodgers read and understand the CBA, and if you make a new CBA, I'm sure that they'll read every line of it and figure out all the loopholes in the new CBA.
32:29
And same thing happens in football, same thing happens in basketball. Like, they're- As they should. Yeah, it's a, it's like business.
32:35
Well, this is y- but you do, you do understand, though, that this is why, like, I grew up an Orioles fan. This is why we hate the Yankees and their fans specifically, right?
32:42
Because es- especially, like, they think it's their birthright to have every great, great player. If they lose Juan Soto- [laughs]... they act like, "Oh, what a calamity has happened to us."
32:51
That's- But Baltimore- Yeah... Baltimore just got bought by a head of a private equity firm. They're gonna pump as much money into the team as possible to make it into a winner.
32:58
And he even said, he said, "I'm, like, 80 years old. I don't have time to sit around and, you know, build this team organically. Let's go out there and win." You know?
33:05
You, you should encourage, fan bases should, should encourage their owners to spend money or to sell the teams to people who will. Not a Dodgers fan at all. It's easy. Still a Dodgers fan. [laughs] Uh, okay.
33:16
What do you think about the MVP market in the NFL? You wanted to say something about that. Yeah, so I was, I was at the, uh, the Eagles game.
33:23
It was an Eagles home game in, in LA on Sunday night, and I saw Saquon Barkley.
33:28
He played great, and I'm, I'm a little surprised that his, his odds have, have taken such a, a dive from, you know, 65 to 1 to 6 and a half to 1. I thought he played great.
33:39
I'm not necessarily convinced that he's a better running back this season than Derrick Henry, who's also been consistently good.
33:45
And I'm, I'm absolutely not convinced that he's in the same tier right now as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
33:50
I, I would absolutely, you know, be, be betting against Saquon Barkley right now if there was a, you know, reasonable no market, which there's not.
33:58
But, uh, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, definitely the, the guys in the lead there. And, and Kelly kind of pointed out the defensive player of the year stuff, the defensive rookie of the year.
34:07
It's, you know, I, I, I'm, I'm kind of bored of that stuff, too. I don't really know, you know, how to, how to pick out anything there other than acclimation like, like you guys said.
34:16
But, uh, the rookie of the year, the offensive rookie of the year, I think Bo Nix should not be plus 160, plus 175.
34:24
Uh, Jayden Daniels did probably one of the worst things you can do in awards betting, is, uh, he peaked too early, I think.
34:31
Um, unless he has another even extraordinary higher peak coming this year, I think Bo Nix is gonna flip him as favorite in the next week or two.
34:38
Brock Bowers, any other year, he'd probably be a serious contender, but he has three touchdowns.
34:43
Just sort of matter of fact, you're not gonna win with a tight end and three touchdowns in, in a, a year you have two extraordinary quarterbacks like this.
34:52
Um, and then coach of the year, I, I would expect if, uh, Bo Nix wins rookie of the year and, and the Broncos make the playoff, Sean Payton six to one should drop, you know, significantly over the next couple weeks.
35:03
All right. Jason Wagener, got it all in. All right. Thank you, Jason. That's what I got. Appreciate it, man. Pleasure. Happy Thanksgiving, guys. Talk to you later. You, too. Happy Thanksgiving. Enjoy with you and yours.
35:15
That's Spreadapedia from Jason. We'll come back, Matt Brown joins us, talk some NFL next. Numbers Game, VSiN, the sports betting network. A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
35:33
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35:41
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35:50
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36:01
By the way, Dave Tooley, Adam Burke, Scott Seidenberg, VSiN's own, all in that poker tournament, so check it out. Again, vsin.com/poker. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin alongside.
36:11
Um, last time this gentleman was on the show, uh, he referred to his new, his new baby boy as, quote, "That dude," unquote. [laughs] From ESPN, it's Dallin Cuff, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
36:22
How you doing, Dallin? I'm doing well. That dude has been going through a sleep regression as of time. My man's doing a lot better the last couple weeks, so, so your boy here is doing a lot better as well. Oh, oh.
36:31
Thank you, guys, good to be on with you. Maybe that's what it was, my man or that dude. Mm-hmm. It was one of those, but, uh, you were exasperated with him. He's the dude.
36:39
I'm doing better now, but that d- that, that guy is... He was, he was challenging me in those days. But we're better. We're, we're heading around the corner. Good. Good. I'm glad to hear that.
36:46
Before we get to your college basketball plays, and you have a bunch of them- Yeah... uh, anything in the Champions League? I know you love soccer just as much. I mean, that Liverpool-Real Madrid game is gonna be...
36:56
It's just interesting. You got where Madrid is in the table, and with 36 team table and the s- Swiss rules and whatever, you gotta be in the, you gotta, you gotta be in the top, you know, 75% to get into the next round.
37:06
And Real Madrid's flirting with not being there, and they gotta go on the road to Liverpool. I think it'll be a great game. It'll be on one of the monitors while we sit in the studio at ESPN today.
37:14
I'll be trying to focus at the time, I believe, on the third place Maui game, but we'll see. We'll see. I do think that, I think also Liverpool wins that game.
37:21
I don't wanna bet against Real Madrid, so what I'm gonna play is the, uh, both teams to score, no draw. So I, I think it's gonna be Mad- Madrid needs the points. Liverpool's in a great spot. They are very good at home.
37:30
I think both teams will get on the board on, the over under is really more at three and a half to have any value. I don't necessarily wanna mess with that. I think we could see a two one either way.
37:37
So give me about, it's about even money in most books for, uh, both teams to score, no draw. All right, both teams to score, Real Madrid and Liverpool from Dallin Cuff from ESPN. All right, to college basketball.
37:47
By the way, you do a great job in studio, Dallin. Mm-hmm. We're all enjoying a full day college basketball. These, uh, early season tournaments are fantastic.
37:55
Let me ask you a question that I asked of another guest earlier, which is, what is the team that is sort of not the usual answer, right? Not the usual suspects at the top of college basketball.
38:04
What's the team you've ob- observed so far in the early season where you're like, "Oh, that team might be something that I didn't expect them to be"?
38:13
Well, the cat's out of the bag now, guys, because, I mean, Auburn is a team that I think people thought about, but I still had questions about. Because y- when you look at, they have so many seniors.
38:21
They have Johni Broome, but is, is, is Pettiford as a freshman gonna be a gu- a guy that can, can help them and not, and not struggle against teams that'll pressure you? Well, they, we figured out against Iowa State.
38:30
You know, obviously, uh, Baker Mazara was outstanding in that game alone. So I think really this week is about answering questions. And whether we thought Auburn was a national title contender, maybe I was behind.
38:40
I, I didn't necessarily think they were. I think my tune has changed. Even after they beat McNeese in Houston, I think that tune has changed a little bit.
38:46
Um, when you look further, you know, down the line, Wisconsin's been one of the surprises of the year to just, now, the Arizona has been as well on a negative side.
38:54
But when they just put one on Arizona 100-plus points and you've got, you know, playing faster and guys making shots, and I- i- and Greg Gard has kind of approached this season differently with this team differently, that was picked way down in the Big 10.
39:05
I think Wisconsin right now is one of those teams to watch of, okay, this team could be really good, just like Arizona.
39:10
And I believe we'll have Tommy Lloyd on in our studio here coming up later today, 'cause Arizona plays another set of Wildcats, Davidson, at the end of the day in the, in the Battle 4 Atlantis.
39:18
Um, they've been a surprise in a negative sense. They, they got throttled by Wisconsin. They got blasted at home by d- a good, very talented defensive team in Duke especially.
39:26
Um, so I'm not, I'm not out on the Wildcats, but I definitely might be in on the Badgers. Speaking of the Battle 4 Atlantis, uh, begins, tips off in, well, 26 minutes from now.
39:36
Indiana, 14th ranked Hoosiers taking on Louisville. The, uh, Hoosiers are a four and a half point favorite. You have a, uh, bet in this game. Wow, it's up to four and a half though, you guys?
39:45
'Cause I was two and a half this morning when I took it. It's at four and a half. That is- Oh, you know what? You know what? I'm seeing four and a half, but now we're flashing up three, so maybe this has changed.
39:51
We're at three. I, okay. All right, 'cause I mean, that would be massive movement. I feel great about my l- my, my pick then if we're, where, where we're going.
39:59
But, um, yeah, I think Indiana's, I think I like their roster better. Uh, Emboka is a very talented wing player.
40:04
Myles Rice, for folks that n- you know, followed last year and saw Washington State and what Kyle Smith did with that team, but Myles's a guy that, you know, has beaten cancer and is coming back [laughs] and can score, can make shots.
40:14
Really good in a two-point range, which I know is something we don't talk about as much anymore, but super efficient in, in that regard. I, I think their roster's just better, like Renault in the interior.
40:23
And when you, the other piece of this is for Louisville and Pat Kelsey, they wanna take a lot of threes, guys. We know this. And he's em- he's putting his stamp on that Louisville program in year one.
40:31
They take 55% of their shots from three-point line. That's second most in the nation. We know that's what they're gonna do, no matter what. They're shooting 29% from three.
40:38
They played one high major opponent in Tennessee, and they got blasted by 22 in their own building. Remember, when you're playing the Battle 4 Atlantis, it's in that stinking ballroom.
40:45
[laughs] Which is hard, it's hard for a lot of teams to shoot in, guys. It takes, it'll take you a minute to really figure that place out.
40:52
Now, I could be, I could eat my words there and they could go nuts, but by and large, it can be a tough place to shoot and to acclimate to.
40:57
So when you are reliant on the threes as they are and have very few other ways to really score the ball, I love Indiana in this spot, and I loved them at two and a half.
41:06
Uh, if it's three, I still, I'm still good with that. Uh, the four and a half would've been, I'd still probably take it four and a half, but that would be, uh, a, a pretty big move if that actually happened.
41:13
Yeah, I got, I got fed a, a bad number there. My apologies. Uh, what I was asking you earlier about, you know, teams that are sort of under the radar, Dayton has a, has a really interesting basketball team.
41:22
Uh, we, we have a group chat on college basketball, and Dayton has come up from time to time as like, oh, this team's better than we thought they were. Uh, they're taking on UConn.
41:29
UConn has lost two in a row here, close games to Memphis and Colorado. Danny Hurley is apoplectic about it. You like the Flyers plus the points here. Love the Flyers. I'm taking them on both these two games.
41:41
Unfortunately, I do live in the state of Connecticut. I cannot bet on today's game, but I'm telling you to take it if I would, if I could.
41:47
Uh, but I can't, unless I wanna go, you know, offshore like I did in years before in Bulgaria or something. [laughs] But we're not going back to those days. We are in a bright new future, boys.
41:54
We're not going illegal again.
41:56
So I, I will say that Dayton is a team that you really, you, obviously people that have watched their first two games, I mean, if Zed Key does not commit that intentional foul, uh, flagrant foul last night, they'd maybe beat Iowa State.
42:06
I- if they don't have, uh, a, a s- a bad shooting performance and some mistakes down the stretch against Carolina, they win that game.
42:11
This is, now for this game in particular, Dayton's season in terms of their resume could hinge on a game like this. That's what the difference is I think in this game in particular.
42:19
When you look at the A10 overall, don't sleep on the A10, by the way. Loyola Chicago's better, VCU's better, St. Louis is gonna be good. Uh, they, they have some really quality teams in that league.
42:28
That said, it's been a one-bid league the last couple years, and Dayton's been carrying the flag for that league, along with VCU. They gotta, this game, like they gotta win this game is how I approach would be.
42:37
You need to have these type of resume builders 'cause you may not have as many, and you don't have as many in the A10.
42:41
And if certain teams don't perform in the non-conference, their metrics can't get better in a league like that one. That's what we've seen in recent years, too.
42:47
So I love them with the points I think they can win it outright. I think this UConn team obviously is struggling to find some identity in terms of their consistency with guard play. Aiden Mahaney has struggled.
42:57
The fouls, guys, is just bananas. Now, they've had a tough whistle, but you've got, you have to consider the fouling. It's both games now. It's two different sets of officials.
43:05
They've been, you know, four, four guys with two fouls in the first half, and it's affected their rotations. It's affected them down the stretch. I like Canaan's depth.
43:12
I like, you know, Zed Key, Posh Alexander added to Malachi Smith and veterans from last year. Nate Santos is a, one of the best glue guys in the build- business, and I like Anthony Grant a lot.
43:20
So you give me the six and a half, I'm in business. I think they could win this game outright, which would be shocking if UConn goes 0-3 out in Maui. Oh, sure would be. That's in Maui, as you said, and so is this one.
43:28
North Carolina, Michigan State. Tar Heels lost to Auburn. Uh, North Carolina plays at a fast pace, but you have a creative way to bet this one.
43:36
Yeah, I, I mean, there are gonna be possessions in this game, 'cause as you said, Carolina does wanna get up and down, and, and it's not gonna be, you know, a low possession game likely, and Michigan State'll run with you, too.
43:45
I still am taking their under on team total, 76 and a half. I, I think Carolina, defensively they can be better. Defensively, their guards are really good. Seth Trimble in particular, Elliott Cadoux.
43:55
At times, obviously, RJ Davis, when they're, those are two smaller guards together. You can exploit them.
43:59
I don't think that Michigan State has necessarily the players to exploit their size advantage in terms of guard, guard play, and overall, this team still struggles to score or shoot right now.
44:07
Michigan State's shooting like, what is it, man, 19% now from the three-point line? I mean, it is. And let's see, then it's abysmal. So it's... I, I don't see them scoring. They played two other high major opponents.
44:16
Neither one of them have gotten over, uh, neither one of them gotten over the 76 and a half. I don't think it happens here today. I think Carolina wins this game.
44:23
The spread makes me a little wary, 'cause I still could see this game in three games in three days played in the mid-70s, which gets me under on that, but it may not get to the spread.
44:32
Also in Maui, I wish we all were in Maui, Memphis and Auburn, another great game today. Memphis is catching points, uh, almost double digits worth, uh, for the full game, but you like Memphis in the first half here.
44:42
What's your reasoning? Yeah, here, here they've started games really well, and I think in particular with PJ Haggerty has been great. Tyrese Hunter has been great. They're great at drawing fouls.
44:52
I do think the, the depth of Auburn will wear them down over time, and I think Auburn has been a l- I mean, a little bit inconsistent in terms of their...
44:58
They've won both games, but obviously had to come back from a monster deficit in the first game. So I do think the physicality of the bigs, too, uh, for, for Memphis will, will affect Broome a little bit.
45:08
I think they can, you know, run some bodies at him.
45:10
The key to this game is who handles pressure better, and in both g- and from the guards position, who doesn't turn over, who can be physical with the ball and still, you know, perform.
45:18
I do think in the early part of this game, Memphis will hang. It's when you're wearing them down over what now will be, what, your 120 minutes.
45:25
I'm not good at math, but I believe that's about it when you go three games in three days.
45:28
I think when you get to the back part of that, Auburn's depth may be able to pull away, so I'm a little worried about the full game cover. I do like Memphis to cover the four and a half in the first half. All right.
45:36
Also, uh, from Dallin, Xavier on the money line versus Michigan, and you're laying the wood with the Zags. Yeah, M- M- Xavier, I think, is just better. I think they're a better team in a neutral environment.
45:46
I think they can score more consistently. I think they're g- I think that's almost like a number based on, based on brand more than anything else with Michigan versus Xavier.
45:52
I don't really care about the fact that Xavier's ranked right now. It doesn't really matter. I like their team better. And the Zags, folks, the Zags are for real.
45:58
A- and I think they're gonna, I think they might put a pummeling, so I'm gonna lay the 14 and a half, uh, in that 2:30 Battle for Atlantis game. Yeah, that one's against West Virginia.
46:06
Dallin, thank you so much for making the time. Enjoy the day of college basketball. Happy Thanksgiving, sir. Same to you guys. Enjoy. Dallin Cuff from ESPN, @dallincuff on Twitter. We'll come back.
46:18
Our NFL power rankings will wrap things up. It's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
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