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Nov 7, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | November 6, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | November 6, 2024
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35:13
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Transcript
0:00
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0:24
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story, they always do. So all those idiots who believe in analytics- This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:35
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander.
0:44
It's Kelly Midlin, live from Circa Resort Casino in downtown Las Vegas. One of these days I'm just gonna talk right through the open. That was, I had to shut up right at the last second. What were you yapping about?
0:54
I was talk- I was talking to you. [laughs] Oh. Sorry. He was listening, clearly. [laughs] S- sorry. Uh- Things to do on the breaks. We have, like, 18 jobs to do on the breaks to- You're a little chilly, huh?
1:03
It's that chilly outside. Yeah, yeah. It's quarter-zip weather. Oh, quarter-zip. It's quarter-zip weather.
1:08
Uh, on the show today, Aaron Schatz joins us from, uh, FTN, the creator of DVOA, with his mid-season check-in on the National Football League.
1:16
We look at the NFL through the prism of his proprietary stat DVOA because, uh, he is kind enough to come on every quarter of the NFL season. Still haven't had him on the Mecapod yet this year. Really?
1:27
Uh, yeah, so we'll try to get Aaron on there as well, but he won't do double duty this week, so we'll have him as a check-in here coming up. We'll do our NFL power rankings, Win Total Wednesdays. Um, this has...
1:39
I like that we do this because, uh, we keep track of what we've done. I've made five of these so far. We'll review those, and then I have two more today. K- Gil keeps great track of what he's done.
1:52
Kelly might've had to scramble this morning to try to find everything- Yeah... that he's reviewed, uh- Well, it's interesting be-... on this show [laughs]... because they're obviously, they're dynamic, right? Yeah.
1:59
They're, they, they change from week to week, and so it's, again, something that I did off the grid for many years, the old stock market, uh, thing that finally became legalized, um, just in the last five years, but we used to do it off the grid for so many years.
2:12
JVT, VSiN senior NBA analyst, we'll talk to him as well on the show, but we must begin, um, well, we'll get to the NFL trade line as well. We gotta begin with the election, 2024.
2:22
I couldn't have been more wrong, as it turns out, Kelly Midlin.
2:26
Donald Trump, uh, will be the 47th president of these United States of America, and, uh, the first order of business is, I've been calling Jeff Parlay the Grover Cleveland of producers all of these years.
2:38
I think I still have to call him that because I'm not gonna call him the Donald Trump of, of producers.
2:42
[laughs] I'm not su- I'm not sure how Jeff, uh, Jeff would feel about that, but Jeff is going to, uh, Jeff is going to always be the Grover Cleveland of producers.
2:49
But Donald Trump becomes the second president ever to h- have two terms with someone else having a term in between. Um, and this is, there's a couple things.
2:58
We'll get to some of these numbers, 'cause some of these numbers are just unbelievable.
3:01
And again, we did this all apolitically, uh, speaking, so, um, one of the things is a, is a betting thing, and I'm glad I talked about this with Drew on air yesterday so that, you know, people will, will know that it, I was on record with this.
3:14
I was saved. There are so many times in sports betting, right, and now here in election betting, where you are saved, uh, against your own sort of instincts. Mm.
3:25
Bookmaker, again, I have a, uh, I have a credit account at Bookmaker. [laughs] Kelly, they- You're never going back to this. [laughs] They never... No, no, no. W- this is a huge thing- Right? Yeah...
3:34
because it ends up, it ends up saving me because- You would've burned a lot more money... I would have gotten destroyed on this. Instead, I end up betting on, like, these skins- Yeah... which are severely limited, right?
3:45
Whereas Bookmaker lets you just bet and bet and bet. I probably would've done a, an in, an in, in-election bet- Right. Yeah, yeah... probably additionally last night, uh, before we realized it was over.
3:55
Um, but, uh, by the way, NewYorkMess16, "Donald Trump is the Jeff Parles of an American presidency." We already [laughs] we already have a tweet on that.
4:02
There's definitely a segment of the audience that was waiting for this just to be able to tweet that. Just to be able to- Yeah. Can we do the other one too?
4:07
Because this one, this one MAGA guy has been, uh, I really missed the, he didn't understand the assignment. This is not, I'm, I'm, I'm not, uh, in support of anyone. I was just trying to make money.
4:15
But, uh, he said, uh, his tweet, he was, he was sending me tweets all through the night, I think drunken tweets, where, like, he couldn't be 100% mean. He was, like, sort of half mean.
4:23
[laughs] So he'd be like- 'Cause he didn't know yet? Yeah. He was like, "Uh, don't do politics anymore. Just stick to sports." One of them was like that.
4:29
And then the last one he sent me was, he c- he said, uh, he goes, uh, "Eat it on this, jerk." Oh, man. I'd like to point out he said, "On this."
4:39
[laughs] So I don't think he wants me to eat it on anything else, but on this specifically. Just, just on this. Just on this. So thank you, ADJrocksLA, if that is your real name.
4:48
Um- I also like that, uh, you just, you just sent this to me, 'cause, yeah, like you said, he's not replying to anything on Twitter- Oh, no, he's just-...
4:54
so it's just that, and, like, Gil just sends this to me this morning. He's just, I was laugh- I'm like, "I mean, I think I know what this is about, but-" I was just laughing the whole time. Like, he's like, "On this."
5:02
Okay. [laughs] All right, well thanks for listening. We appreciate it. Anyway, here's the, here's the- Oh, man... so, so that was a, uh, that was just pure luck for me that I never had access. Yeah.
5:11
I'm a little more worried about some of our friends. Sure, sure, yeah. [laughs] Um, but here's the, here's the, the biggest stats in this election, and then we'll move on to the trade deadline.
5:18
But Donald Trump not only wins the presidency through the electoral college, which is how you win it, but he wins the popular vote, and by margin- Incredible. Yeah... by 5 million votes.
5:31
Uh, he did not win the popular vote when he beat Hillary Clinton in 2016. He did not win the popular vote when he lost to Joe Biden in 2020.
5:40
Uh, he was a massive dog in the popular vote here, and he beats Kamala Harris by 5 million votes, uh, in the popular vote. Forget about the electoral college for a second.
5:51
That's the real headline stunner, uh, of the night. Was, like, three to one, right? What do you mean three to one? Was, it was like three to one to win the popular vote, Trump? Oh, uh, yes. Yeah.
6:00
He was three to one to win the popular vote. She was minus 400, uh, to win the popular vote. Nobody saw that coming. Uh, that, that's unbelievable. Now people are calling it a landslide, by the way, in electoral college.
6:11
I think that's a big word. You should, we should probably reserve landslide for Reagan beating Mondale in '84, where Mondale got 13 total electoral votes. He won his home state of Minnesota and DC.
6:25
Or, or Reagan over Jimmy Carter, when I don't think Jimmy Carter got 50 electoral votes even then. Those are landslides, but this certainly was a mandate, that's for sure. We'll go that far.
6:34
Um, the other two stats, the sort of sub stats that are fascinating, uh, Biden beat Trump in 2020 in the Latino vote by 32 points. She beat Trump in the Latino vote by eight points, last I heard.
6:51
That's with all the, the, you know, the, the comic who did the insults- Right... to Border Reagan, all that. None of that mattered- Mm... in the end there. And then the other one I think, and we'll leave it on this,
7:00
she did not, forget Trump for a second, she did not outperform Biden in a single state. She failed to outperform Biden, 2020 Biden, in a single state.
7:11
And then I wanna get this right, and then when you go to all of the counties of America, you know how many counties we have in the, uh, in the United States of America?
7:17
Oh my God, I have wondered this aloud, uh, multiple times the past couple days and not looked it up. No, I'm just taking a wild stab at it. I- 792. We have 4,600. Sure, I was close. Yeah.
7:29
We have 4,600 counties in the United States of America. Counties or whatever they're called- Right, yeah... in different parts of the country. Uh, she outperformed Biden, 2020 Biden, in only 58 of those 4,600 counties.
7:43
That- Wow... is maybe the most amazing stat of them all. It's incredible. Um, so con- congrats for, for anybody who had Trump bets, uh, congratulations to you. Well done. You are a winner in the 2024 election.
7:55
NFL trade deadline, of course, was going on. There were other things. College rankings, the first college rankings came out yesterday. No, like, huge surprises.
8:02
The things with the college rankings are they, they don't really help us with bets at this point 'cause you can't really figure out where everybody's gonna end up on the final one.
8:10
There's six of these, so you don't really, can't really anticipate match-ups or anything. Um, but as far as the NFL trade deadline yesterday, there was some movement.
8:18
Uh, we were on air yesterday when Jonathan Mingo went [laughs] went to the Cowboys for a fourth round pick. I do not know what Jerry Jones is doing. Still trying to figure that one out.
8:27
Trading a, trading a fourth round pick for Jonathan Mingo. That makes no sense whatsoever. The best part about that one was actually trying to listen to the NFL insiders yesterday, like, be, try to explain it.
8:37
And, and, like, the only explanation was they really like him and they must like him long-term because it makes no sense in the landscape of other wide receivers that got signed this year.
8:47
It also strikes me as they probably had him rated high going into the draft. Right. Correct. Yeah. And they're like, "Well let, let's see if that guy's still around." Mm-hmm.
8:54
And who knows, he's been, he's been in- Maybe... Carolina. We don't know anything. Maybe. Steelers, uh, got Mike Williams from the Jets. He wasn't doing anything with the Jets.
9:02
We'll see if he can, uh, sort of go back to old school Mike Williams of the Chargers. I expect, Gil, we're gonna see a lot of deep balls from Russell Wilson to Mike Williams. Yeah.
9:11
Preston Smith goes from the Packers to the Steelers as well for a seventh rounder. Preston Smith to the Packers and, uh, yesterday we were talking about, um, [smacks lips]
9:22
uh, the, the pickup by the, the Lions in getting Za'Darius Smith. Both of those are nice pickups for teams that look to be headed to the postseason. The Lions certainly. We'll see about the Steelers.
9:32
But those are good for, uh, defensive line sort of padding. Obviously in the Lions case, they lost Aidan Hutchinson, so that's good for shoring up the defensive line. Um, but the big one, the big one is at the top.
9:44
'Cause by the way, Tre'Davious White hasn't, you know, who knows if he's a player anymore, went to the Ravens, so I don't know if he's, you know, gonna ever be the player he was. I like it for the Ravens, though. Yeah.
9:53
'Cause it's, it's, you're already so talented. Y- it's really a no-risk situation for them, right? Sure. Adam, and if he, if he can bring anything to the table still, then great. If not, no big deal.
10:02
I saved the best for last. Marshon Lattimore goes to the Commodores. Big. Um, the Jayden Daniels window is officially open is what this is. Yeah. Uh, Marshon Lattimore, who is oft injured, should point that out, right?
10:17
That's the calculus here as well. Uh, as the Saints try to, uh, shed salary here, uh, he goes to the Commanders. Four time Pro Bowler Marshon Lattimore.
10:26
The Saints sent Lattimore and a 2025 fifth to the Commodes in exchange for a third, fourth, and sixth in next year's draft. You talked about Mingo being a long-term thing.
10:37
If you're trading a third, fourth, and sixth for Lattimore- Oh, totally... you're planning on that being a long-term thing. That is a, that is a Skins weakness, right?
10:45
That secondary, and specifically a corner who you can put out there one on one and hope that it's gonna be okay. I believe I caught the note I caught yesterday.
10:53
First corner to be traded, uh, that was a, that's under 30 that, that's a three time Pro Bowler. Champ Bailey was not a three time Pro Bowler when he was traded?
11:02
I guess not, 'cause he only played a couple years with the Skins I believe when they traded him- Yeah, I think it was too early probably... to Denver for Clinton Portis.
11:08
By the way, uh, have we, have we, uh, have we adjudicated that, that trade yet? Who won that trade? No, I'm kidding. [laughs] Um, obviously the Broncos won that trade.
11:15
One's in the Hall of Fame and one, uh, just fell shy is what I'd like to say. Uh, Clinton Portis' peak, by the way, with the Skins was his very first play. He took it, like, 55 yards to the house against the Bucs.
11:25
It was all downhill from there. [laughs] He said- It was all downhill... and he was a fun guy to watch- Oh, he was great... in college and pro, man. He was enjoyable.
11:31
And then Brian Mitchell used to kill him on the radio. [laughs] 'Cause he would have oxygen after a nine-yard run. B-Mitch would just destroy him. So anyway, that's the big one.
11:38
Marshon Lattimore to the Skins, and we'll get to again, uh, after the break, we'll get to, uh, NFL adjusted season win totals. I will add to the five I already have. Kelly will add. How many do you have today? I got two.
11:49
I got two as well. I think I had five or six before. Okay. So we'll, uh, we'll look at those.
11:54
[upbeat music] That is still in season the best market I think there is Uh, alternate season win totals pre-flop and adjusted season win totals in-season. We will get to them next.
12:04
It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:07
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do.
12:25
So, I'm one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
12:33
VSiN.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Everybody, thank you for tuning in. We appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's my little buddy Kelly Bidlin, everybody. Kelly Bidley. Look at him. Look at the guy.
12:42
I gotta give a little wave- With the quarter- 'Cause I'm the little buddy... quarter zip. Little wave. Quarter zip guy. Uh, coming up this hour, uh, Aaron Schatz standing by, the creator of DVOA over at FTN Sports.
12:53
He's also an awards bettor. We'll s- pick his brain about that as well, 'cause we have some questions from, f- from, from some folks.
12:58
And then Jason Weingarten, who, uh, was very clear to let us know, uh, last week, or the week before I should say, he's like, "I'm betting on Kamala, but I don't want her to win." Remember that whole conversation?
13:08
[laughs] Yep. He's, like, making, making sure to tell us all this. By the way, I just wanna read one tweet before we get to Aaron.
13:12
This is from RoadKingKR, Road King Kevin Ryan, who says, "Gil, has anyone checked in on Fez?" So do you know what this is? [laughs] So this is, by the way- Oh, Fezzik... Fezzik, who's- I love him...
13:24
who comes on the show every Friday, back-to-back winner of the Hilton SuperContest, the only back-to-back winner, um, kind enough to do so. His sort of, h- he's known for a couple things.
13:34
One, okay in real life, horrible human being on Twitter, right? He made that Purdue bet, minus 4,500, when they ended up losing, right, on the money line.
13:43
They ended up losing as a one seed to Fairleigh Dickinson, a 16 seed. Last night he almost had his Rembrandt of all Rembrandts. Did you see this bet he made with Doug Gazarian? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.
13:53
So he had Kamala in the popular vote, but he had it plus 7.5 million, I believe. So he had Kamala, who was heavily favored to win the popular vote, plus 7.5 million votes.
14:06
So in his mind, there was no possible way he could ever lose this, and the bet was 28K to win $100. To win 100 bucks. [laughs] She ends up losing by 5 million. I- he just barely got by. Oh, man.
14:20
But that could've been, that could've been his, uh, quote-unquote, "Rembrandt," if you will. Great marketing, though. He al- he always keeps himself in the betting news cycle, you know? Oh, is that what he's doing?
14:29
[laughs] He always keeps himself in the betting news cycle. Let us talk some football. Kelly and I were doing power rankings before, but let's get to someone who actually really digs into the numbers and knows his stuff.
14:38
He's kind enough to come on this show every quarter. He is a pioneer in football analytics. Uh, he's over at FTN now, the creator of DVOA. It's our buddy Aaron Schatz courtesy of Progressive Guest Line.
14:49
How you doing, Aaron? Hey, I'm alive. [laughs] He is alive, and he is here with us. Let me ask you this, 'cause we were just going through a one, two, three, and we were saying, all right, the top tier.
14:59
We w- we might not be able to agree on one, two, three, but we said the top tier is in whatever order you want, the Chiefs, the Lions, and the Ravens. Would you, w- are your numbers generally in agreement with that?
15:12
Yeah. I mean, I would put it Lions, Ravens, Chiefs, but yeah, that's my top three. And is there a significant drop-off from one of those to another, though? The Lions are hugely ahead.
15:22
I mean, the Lions are just hugely, hugely ahead. They are the number five team in DVOA through eight games ever. Ever. Wow. So, so it's remarkable. So- Uh, that being said, right, like, you know, no Hutchinson,
15:39
and the Chiefs added Hopkins, so the Chiefs are a little bit better than their past performance, and the Lions are probably a little bit worse, but right now the Lions are the best team in the league, and it's very clear.
15:48
All right. By the way, DVOA, for those who don't know, is a, is a granular look play-by-play in the NFL at, um, and comparing it to the league average result of each of those plays.
15:58
Aaron gets that granular all the way back to 1979, I believe it is now. Yes? Yeah. 1979. Love that. Okay, so that's interesting. So your fifth best team of all time through eight weeks, uh, ever in DVOA.
16:12
Do you remember- Yeah... offhand, 'cause I remember the Ravens and the Niners were super historically good last year, too. Do you remember what they were as compared to this year's Lions last year at this time?
16:22
They were lower at this time. They got better as the year went along. Uh, last year's Ravens were, like, whatever, like, 17th or 18th of all time at through, through eight games. And then they- Something like that...
16:36
and then they ended up top 10. Both of those teams, the Niners and the Ravens, ended up top 10- Yeah... as the season went on. Yeah, once we played 17. Yep. Yeah. And then Patrick Mahomes lurked in the whole thing. Yeah.
16:45
By the way, I have to say this also, 'cause people, it, it's funny to me when people react to your, to your numbers. Uh, Patrick Mahomes exists. It doesn't mean the numbers are wrong in the end.
16:54
He's just a sort of hack for the game. And so- L- listen, and, and we don't know how much of a hack he is, right? Tom Brady was a hack- Yeah... until the years that he wasn't, and then he suddenly was again, right?
17:06
Like, 2005, the Patriots were not as good as the two previous years, and people thought when we got to the playoffs that Brady and Belichick were gonna win it anyway because no one could beat them because they were Brady and Belichick.
17:18
And then they didn't. Another good example is the 1990 49ers. The 1990 49ers had won two straight titles. They started 10 and 0. They didn't even make it to the Super Bowl that year.
17:31
Like, it's not guaranteed that Mahomes will win everything, but he does appear to raise his team better than the underlying them.
17:40
Nine- 99ers, the 1999ers still managed to beat the Skins in the playoffs, I believe, if I recall correctly. Yep. Lost to the Giants in the NFC Championship Game. Yes, that is correct. Okay.
17:50
Beyond the Lions, Ravens, and Chiefs, then, how does DVOA rank the rest of the top 10? We've got the Vikings fourth. Hmm. And then surprisingly, the 49ers and Bills are tied for fifth.
18:04
The 49ers, it's surprising because th- there's no adjustment in there for Christian McCaffrey coming back. That's based on how they've actually played at four and four. Uh, then the Commanders,
18:16
and then the Packers, Eagles, and Steelers. Let's talk about the Commanders for a second. Do you have any points of comparison with rookie quarterbacks being this high in DVOA through nine games?
18:29
Yeah, this'll be, I mean, this'll be one of the best rookie quarterback seasons I've ever measured. Not the best. Uh, from a total perspective, Daniels doesn't throw the ball as much as some past quarterbacks did.
18:41
And from a per play perspective, it's not gonna match '83 Dan Marino. No. But he's been phenomenal, and the Commanders' offense has been phenomenal.
18:51
Uh, their defense has been problematic, but they just went and got a really good cornerback. So, I mean, they got the- Mm-hmm... exact right piece that they needed. They sure did.
18:59
Dan Marino in '83, uh, was the year he threw 48 touchdown passes, if I'm not mistaken. No, it's the year before that when he started- Oh... half the year. Oh, that's right. Yeah. And was, was very good as a rookie.
19:10
And then the second year was the year he had the 48 touchdown passes. 48 touchdown passes in an era where it was, like, big to throw 30-something, right? Like- Yeah... uh, just unbelievable. Okay.
19:19
Uh, let's break it down into units. Is there anything historically good or bad offense or defense? Or is there anything historically bad overall that you're seeing with any team? Two things.
19:29
The first is the Ravens offense is one of the best offenses I've ever measured. Wow.
19:36
They are fantastic both running and passing, which is interesting because their pass defense and their special teams have really fallen off this year, but their offense has risen to make up for it. Interesting.
19:51
I'm bracing myself for the next one. Is this a bad one coming up? The Tennessee Titans special teams are the second-worst special teams in DVOA history.
20:00
[exhales] And we know that because w- our eyes can even tell us that, right? They, they had just so many gaffes.
20:07
Yeah, just this week alone, they allowed a 44 and 25-yard punt return and fumbled twice on their own returns.
20:17
And, and special teams is particularly interesting because no matter how many football games we watch as fans and/or as bettors, for whatever reason we don't process special teams the same way.
20:29
That's sort of the secret ingredient. Even though you, you don't weight it nearly as much as offense and defense, I understand. I wanna say you said four, three, one is how it goes?
20:37
Yeah, basically when you look at the range of possible numbers, it ends up being that offense is about four parts, defense three, and special teams one.
20:45
But it is, if you're thinking of betting the Titans, that's probably a thing that you, most bettors, I'm not gonna say all, all neglect this, but that's probably the missing piece.
20:55
Like, if you keep losing on the Titans, we have Wi- Will Hill on the Megapod, it's sort of become a joke where he w- he bet the Titans a lot. That's probably what did him in most times.
21:03
And, and of course, Will Levis just throwing the ball up in the air, that too.
21:08
Yeah, I mean, their Ti- the, it, the only worse special teams through nine games was the 2010 Chargers the year that they led the league in both yards gained and yards allowed, and their special teams were so bad that it kept them out of the playoffs.
21:21
Wow. Uh, who could forget the 2010 Chargers special teams? Uh, let me ask you this. From your pre-season predictions, what is the team or teams that have flummoxed you the most at this point in the season?
21:34
Obviously there's still a lot of runway left, but halfway by and large through the season, what's the team to the good or to the bad that you have gotten the most incorrect?
21:42
I mean, remember after two weeks when my Saints and Patriots takes- [laughs]... looked good? Yes. That, that has not turned out. The Patriots defense has completely collapsed.
21:52
And the Saints, you know, they, they have played better than their record. They've had a couple of games. They outplayed the Panthers this week, but lost. Yeah.
22:00
Um, but also w- not, not having Carr and not having Shaquille and losing Olave, they've just had a lot of injuries, so the Saints have collapsed.
22:09
Uh, on the other side, I mean, I said one of the rookie quarterbacks was likely to be very good, and I didn't know who it was. And it turns out it's Jayden Daniels, so the Commanders are much better than I expected.
22:20
But I kinda knew one of those teams, between the Commanders and the Bears and the Patriots and the Colts, one of those teams was gonna be much better than expected, and the Commanders are that team.
22:31
By the way, about those quarterbacks, is there w- Do you have a surprising assessment of, of any of those? Like, uh, do you have one of them rated way worse than the general consensus sees that kind of player?
22:43
No, I think people understand that Caleb Williams was not good through the first three weeks, and then was much better in the next three weeks, and then has been okay in the two weeks since then.
22:52
I don't think I have Williams lower. I think people understand that he's had some rookie issue, but Daniels has been the one who's much better, and that Maye and Nix and, and Williams have all had some rookie issues.
23:03
What, what have you gotten... W- what's the thing you've gotten the most right that you're most proud of? I mean, that I had Baltimore as my AFC Super Bowl team, and they've been fantastic.
23:14
Who is a team that we would be shocked to see you have projected to make the postseason at this point? Denver. Denver. Wow. Very confident, very quickly said. I mean, I, I, I did not expect that. And it's all defense.
23:27
I mean, their, Bo Nix is not... I, I, I'm, I'm trying to come to grips with the idea that Bo Nix is average. [laughs] Like, that is better than my priors, but, I mean, their defense has been very, very good.
23:37
I said that on this past Monday. It was, uh, one of the first things I said on, uh, Guessing Lines.
23:41
I'm like, "Listen, Bo Nix has been a whole lot better than I ever thought he would be, and so let me just raise my hand and, uh, a- admit to that as well." So the Broncos, very interesting. We'll come back.
23:51
Uh, Aaron is kind enough to stick with us for two segments. Uh, he is also an awards voter.
23:56
Uh, and to the extent that we can have a conversation, we have some listeners who, uh, would like to ask some questions, and we will get to those. I have some as well.
24:03
Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA over at FTN Sports. You can follow him at ASchatzNFL on Twitter. Coming back right here on The Numbers Game at VSiN, the Sports Betting Network.
24:13
[upbeat music][upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back with the great Aaron Schatz right here on a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network. Gil Alexander.
24:28
Again, you can follow Aaron @ASchatzNFL on Twitter. That's A-S-C-H-A-T-Z NFL for all of his, uh, stuff there at FTN Sports.
24:38
And Aaron, if, uh, folks want to get all that you do, is that the, the quickest way to get it all? Yeah, it's ftnfantasy.com/DVOA. That's my page.
24:50
And you should definitely check out everything we have at FTN Fantasy because there's a lot of DFS optimizers that are really good, a lot of betting advice, stuff on multiple sports.
25:00
Like I only do NFL, but we have really good stuff on everything from golf to women's basketball that has really good records. Love it, over at FTN Sports. By the way, you made the right choice going over there.
25:11
I think, I hope you feel that way when you were debating- I do, I do-... you know... uh, feel like I'm very, I'm very comfortable where I ended up. I love it. Um, okay, let's talk awards.
25:20
Now, I know this gets a little awkward for you, so I wanna be sensitive to that because you are one of- Well, the later in the season we get, the more awkward it is.
25:26
[laughs] So at this point it's not really awkward at all. Okay. Oh. My mind can change over the next nine weeks. All right, well that, with that entree, carte blanche now to ask you some questions.
25:34
First of all, let's, I'll go to a listener question first, 'cause they wanted to ask about Offensive Player of the Year.
25:38
We actually had, uh, our buddy Will Hill on the show yesterday, and he was talking about, hey, you know, Joe Burrow, I know Offensive Player of the Year, and I know how you view it, Aaron, that MVP is a quarterback thing, and that Offensive Player of the Year is sort of whatever non-quarterback is best, and Derrick Henry reflected in the odds for Offensive Player of the Year, matches that at minus 145, then there's Saquon at plus 215.
26:00
You have a couple wide outs there with Justin Jefferson at five to one, and then Jamar at 20 to one before you see a quarterback like Lamar Jackson at 20 to one.
26:08
Um, he was talking about Joe Burrow yesterday, that, that there's a, you know, he's thrown a lot of touchdown passes quietly.
26:15
The Bengals, you know, if you look at who they have lost to at this point, not a whole bunch of shame in that. They could still make the playoffs. Um, what about Joe Burrow in this category?
26:29
I do wish that they would give us guidelines that clarified these awards, but I do believe that if you're gonna call it most valuable player, that it has to be a quarterback.
26:42
If they changed the guidelines and said the player with the most value compared to the averages at his position, then that would change. But if you're talking about the most valuable players, those are quarterbacks.
26:54
If you're gonna give MVP to a quarterback, you have to have some kind of award for all the other offensive players, and so that's Offensive Player of the Year.
27:04
So until they did some, or unless they do some clarification of rules, I will vote for a non-quarterback for Offensive Player of the Year.
27:12
Do you have any sense of the other, I've asked you this before, but I'll ask it again. Do you have any sense of, of the other 49 voters? Have you done a straw poll?
27:21
Have you done a mental kind of notes thing if they feel the same way? To what degree? I think it's pretty clear that some of them do and some of them don't. Okay.
27:30
Some people still kind of sometimes use Offensive Player of the Year as a second-best quarterback award, which doesn't make sense to me. Or they vote for the same player for Offensive Player of the Year and MVP.
27:42
Some people do that really? Which does make sense to me, but I wouldn't do it. Interesting. Interesting. Yeah.
27:46
Um, okay, so you, Aaron Schatz, if you were voting today, who's your MVP, who's your Offensive Player of the Year, given that? Ironically, to me the MVP is very obvious. It's Lamar Jackson.
27:57
Lamar Jackson is way ahead of every other quarterback by my stats, like way ahead of every other quarterback. And Patrick Mahomes is where Lamar Jackson was last year.
28:09
The stats don't make him look like the most valuable player because of the help that he's getting from all of his teammates, in particular the defense.
28:19
You, uh, I wasn't gonna bring this up myself, but since you used the word ironically, would you like to explain to the folks why you [laughs] used the word ironically?
28:26
For, for folks who don't know, last year Lamar Jackson had 49 MVP votes and I was the only holdout. I voted for Josh Allen instead, and this year I would vote for Lamar Jackson. Okay.
28:37
Lamar Jackson is your MVP, and so your Offensive Player of the Year would be? Probably Derrick Henry, maybe Jahmyr Gibbs, maybe Justin Jefferson. I'm not sure, but probably Derrick Henry. Wow.
28:52
Guys, where does Jahmyr Gibbs fall on the, uh, on the Offensive Player of the Year? Jahmyr Gibbs is 40 to one, okay, if you are to go with Aaron's instincts on this. Uh, let's go to s- let's go to some others here.
29:03
How about, um, well, d- this is always one we d- we don't really talk about Defensive Player of the Year that much 'cause it usually comes down to two or three choices every year, but who's your guy this year?
29:13
Yeah, it's interesting this year because it's been going to edge rushers, but I think a couple of the best candidates this year are not edge rushers. Uh, I see Chris Jones and Dexter Lawrence are high.
29:24
They are really good candidates. Fred Warner I think is a good candidate. Patrick Surtain is a good candidate. Obviously TJ Watt. I don't think there's anybody who's clearly pulled ahead in this race. Oh, you don't?
29:34
Okay, so you think that that's mispriced then? I would say that's a little mispriced, yeah.
29:40
I, I think that it's priced based on the idea that we keep picking edge rushers every year, so the best edge rusher might be your best bet. Yeah. Okay.
29:49
Um, Offensive Rookie of the Year, I won't ask you who, who you have there. No, that one's easy. Yeah, oh, that one's easy, but let me just ask you this.
29:56
Have we gotten to the point, I don't even wanna s- I don't even wanna voice these words, but I have to just for betting purposes.
30:02
If something were to happen to Jayden Daniels, let's say he got hurt and he wasn't able to play anymore, have we gotten to the point in the season,
30:10
a- and maybe the answer is not quite yet, but how, how soon would it be where we've gotten to the point in the season where only, like even an injury couldn't beat him in this?
30:19
Three or four more games because you don't know what Caleb Williams- No... like, if Caleb Williams or Bo Nix was to t- really turn it on in the second half while Jayden Daniels got hurt, then he wouldn't win it. Okay.
30:32
But if they played the same and he got hurt, he probably would. Defensive Rookie of the Year? Uh, I would go with Jared Verse from the Rams right now. Very quick answer. Okay. How about Coach of the Year?
30:45
Oh, I have no idea. No idea. That one's tough. I- for a while, I was like, "It's gotta be O'Connell." I think you've gotta give some props to Quinn. Yeah. He's the short shop, by the way. Always Andy Reid.
30:57
Always Andy Reid, and I think also Matt LaFleur for making Malik Willis not only look passable, but look good. Well, you are, you are a smart guy who will remember the Malik Willis games.
31:13
Will, uh, the, will the average voter of those 50 even consider those two games or three games? I don't know, but the Packers are a good team overall. LaFleur is a good team overall, and we like his aggressiveness.
31:24
Can we- Tomlin would be another interesting one. Oh. Tomlin is always interesting because from an analytical perspective, he's a terrible choice. [laughs] Okay. But what Tomlin does- All right. Fix it...
31:32
is all the stuff that we can't measure, like locker room, like locker room management and player motivation. Yeah. Right? Tomlin is king of the intangible. King of the intangible. He sure is.
31:43
Can we go back to Andy Reid for a second? 'Cause I find this fascinating. Um, I don't know if you know this, but Patrick Mahomes is his quarterback. Yes.
31:50
Do you think, do you think there could be enough sentiment about a Coach of the Year v- you know, in a Coach of the Year vote where people finally toggle to, "You know what? We gotta give this guy this award"?
32:02
I mean, imagine they go 15 and 2. Yeah. Right? They lose, like, one game, and then they lose in week 18 when he sits the starters. I mean, there's gonna be some sentiment there. But let me drill down on that.
32:15
You s- you use 15 and two, and then he loses, so okay. So a- and then, and then one of them is, is a garbage game. Okay. Yeah. I, I- I-...
32:23
I think it's really unlikely that the Chiefs go undefeated, but they could lose, like, one real game and then sit their starters in the last week, and then, I mean, th- they'll be two or three games better than any other team.
32:36
What if it's 13 and four, though, same situation? Well, w- if the Lions are also 13 and four, then you have to start thinking about Dan Campbell. Right.
32:45
So that, I guess that's what I'm getting at, which is for Andy Reid to be o- you know, to be honored with this, the bar is still... It's gotta be such a cartoon record, right?
32:55
That's, I think that's what we're getting at. Yeah. Belichick was always the same way. Yeah.
32:59
Y- you know, it's tough when someone is, like, so accepted as the, one of the best coaches year after year to give them this award in one specific ye- right? It's not Coach of five years. It's Coach of the Year.
33:10
Do you think people would have a problem, do you think the average, and I'm asking you to speculate, obviously, but the person who is obviously knows, you know, if, let's say Jayden Daniels ends up unanimous, for goodness sake, for Offensive Rookie of the Year f- if all continues.
33:22
Do you think folks would have a problem also giving Coach of the Year to Dan Quinn? Do you think that sentiment would exist?
33:28
Oh, I think that's, there would definitely be some people who consider that because think about how often Coach of the Year is team with the biggest turnaround and a new coach. Right. Duh, it's Washington.
33:38
But, but might there be some folks who are like, "I don't wanna give both," it, it doesn't make sense to them to give- Sure... both of those? Yeah. I mean, I might be one of those- Oh...
33:46
folks who will ask- That's what I said... whether that makes sense. Coach of the Year is a really hard one for me. Like, the last couple years, there have just been a lot of really good candidates every year.
33:55
I'm smiling 'cause you know where we're ending this.
33:57
The new Comeback Player of the Year language, um, has, you know, again, if, if folks are adhering to the new Comeback Player of the Year language, Sam Darnold can't win it.
34:07
Let's say Sam Darnold, you know, ended with a flourish here. Who would be your vote right now? Uh, probably Joe Burrow or Kyler Murray. Joe Burrow or Kyler Murray.
34:18
And I'll go back to a question I asked you last time, but I just think it's interesting. Damar Hamlin would not enter your thinking? [sighs] God, it's such a hard one.
34:28
[laughs] But yeah, he was healthy last year and didn't play. If you kinda go by the new guidelines, then you shouldn't really go with Damar Hamlin. But also, Murray and Burrow have been very good. Yes, they have.
34:42
Like, Murray and Burrow have been better quarterbacks than Hamlin has been a safety. [upbeat music] So that's where Burrow might end up, in that category for you. Aaron, it's always fascinating.
34:51
Uh, look forward to having you at the, uh, quarter pole later on, and maybe we'll get you on a mega pod as well if, uh, schedule permits. Yeah. We'll figure out a week definitely.
34:58
Aaron Schatz, everybody, @ASchatzNFL, FTN Sports, courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. Thank you, Aaron. Appreciate it. Always fascinating. No problem. We'll come back. Jason Weingarten on the election and more next.
35:09
[upbeat music]
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