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Oct 10, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | October 10, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | October 10, 2024
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33:41
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story. They always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:11
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com game. Plus iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, so many ways to take us in. We're just happy you choose one of them. That's right. We're grateful.
0:20
It's Gil Alexander. It's Kelly Bidlin, everybody, producer number nine. So much more than a producer. At the desk. What's happening, man? Not much. How you doing? I'm good. I'm very good.
0:30
Uh, we have a Thursday without the Crack Man. Do we do? Let's probably start there. We do. Uh, Crack texted me yesterday. He's like, "Oh, last minute thing. I gotta go to the East Coast. I gotta get on a flight.
0:39
It happens to be during the show, so I can't do it tomorrow." So a rare Thursday without the Crack Man. It's okay. We called an audible. Yeah, we did. We did.
0:46
We, uh, we were, like, blue 42 at the line of scrimmage, and those of you who know our audible calls, that means Adam Burke shows up. [laughs] Right. Yeah, that means Adam Burke. [laughs] Adam Burke shows up.
0:55
Adam Burke, uh, @skatingtripods. We're gonna talk Major League Baseball with him today.
0:59
Uh, two games today, both American League game fours today, which means that it's possible elimination games for the Guardians and the Royals. We'll get into all that here momentarily.
1:10
Uh, Tyler Shoemaker will join us to talk WNBA, best of five finals. Who you got? Liberty, Lynx, who you got? Uh, Tyler Shoemaker with the T-Shoo Index will be here to talk about that. Paul Spohrer on baseball as well.
1:22
Zach Cohen to talk football with us, uh, college, and, and maybe some tennis. It's interesting, uh, Zach and I yesterday came to the same couple plays independently. I do my stuff by numbers.
1:35
He doesn't necessarily, and yet we came to the same two plays. I chose the wrong one. He chose the r- he chose both of them, so he split. Hmm.
1:41
Um, but it's interesting that we did that way, and that's what makes sports handicapping, you know, sports betting handicapping so interesting.
1:47
There's so many ways to skin the cat, and on that spec- spectrum, oftentimes different approaches arrive at the same games, matches, what have you. Yeah. So we'll talk to Zach about that as well.
1:58
Uh, we begin, though, with baseball yesterday. Uh, Kelly, maybe the greatest day of the, of the year for me as a sports fan. Again, the quadruple, the baseball quadruple header. Eh, I shouldn't say greatest day.
2:09
It's the best day of the best month. The greatest day, I think we all could agree, is the first day of March Madness, yes? Mm, yes, yes. Can we all get on that? Yes, yeah. Oh, yeah.
2:16
Or one of the first NFL playoff days, or opening day. I don't know, there's so many to choose from. Anyway, yesterday was great.
2:21
Um, but the first game was game four between the Guardians and the, uh, Tigers, and the Tigers with their second consecutive shutout of the Guardians, three to nothing, and they get their non-Schoop win in this series, the one they needed.
2:35
So at the very least, the Tigers know that they will have Terrance Schoop going in game five if necessary, but they can close out the Guardians today. Bybee going for the Guardians. Tigers gonna do a mix and match.
2:47
The Guardians slight favorites at minus 150, and again, we'll get the thoughts of Spohrer, Burke, everybody on this one. Uh, and then the second game yesterday, the Phillies and the Mets. Goodbye, Philadelphia Phillies.
2:58
Congratulations, everybody who's back in the New York Metropolitans. As a, uh, grand slam from Francisco Lindor- Whoo... is the big swing. Lindor acted like it was just a solo shot in May. [laughs] I loved it.
3:10
I loved the reaction. Just a solo shot in May. That's all it was. Um, the Phillies were flirting with disaster for this entire game.
3:17
The only, the only lean that I gave yesterday was the Phillies first five, which somehow got there. Wow, man. Complete luck. Complete luck. Uh, Suarez was in and out of jams.
3:26
The Phillies were in and out of jams the whole game, and finally, uh, it was one too many jams, basically. Jam, and, uh, the Mets were able to, uh, take it four to one in the game and three to one in the series.
3:37
And the New York Mets are headed to the National League Championship Series for the first time since 2015, when, of course, they, uh, famously lost to the Royals in the World Series that year.
3:48
Um, but the Mets, good on the Mets, who, as we know, needed the last day doubleheader to actually qualify for the postseason.
3:55
Now they're the first to advance to the championship series, and we will find out again today and tomorrow who the other teams will be. So glad the Mets are there, though.
4:04
Like, for, for all the, the, I don't have any bets, not involved at all. Yeah. But for all the Mets fans, we know you're happy for them. Yes, you are.
4:11
And, and for us sitting on the sidelines, it just, it just means we get another series of even more important games that we get to watch them sweat out, which is just, just, uh, that's higher in entertainment value for me.
4:21
When, when the Giants won those three World Series at the beginning of last decade, we used to call it torture. Right. [laughs] There you go. Exactly, yes. It was a big, it was torture. Yeah.
4:28
[laughs] The whole thing was torture, and then it ended beautifully. Uh, third game yesterday chronologically was the, uh, Royals and the Yankees. That's actually, uh, one of the two games again going today.
4:36
Game four, the Yankees got it done yesterday, three to two on the strength of a Giancarlo Stanton solo shot in the top of the eighth to break the tie. Um, so the Yankees now have Gerrit Cole set up for game four today.
4:50
They are a minus 120, uh, or excuse me, they're a minus 140-ish favorite in today's game. Let's call it minus 155 now, pardon me, uh, to close it out. Yeah.
4:58
The Royals desperately trying to get to a game five where they'll have Cole Ragans going, but this is advantage Yankees. In a, in a game yesterday that was almost as noteworthy for Bob Costas' gaffes.
5:10
Did you see this at all yesterday? [laughs] No, no, I didn't. I didn't. I had, I had the game on. I didn't have the volume up much, so. Kauffman Stadium's kind of dark, so maybe, like, Bob's not seeing well.
5:19
But, uh, Andy Isbel had a, uh, a, a sh- a RBI in the fifth that cut the Yankees lead two to one.
5:26
It was down the left field line, and it was a screamer down the left field line, and Costas acted like, you know, nothing was happening, and then all of a sudden when it landed, he's like, "Oh, that's, that's a RBI double," or whatever it is.
5:37
Oh. [laughs] "That's an RBI." So that was the first one. I saw the play. [laughs] That was the first one where you're like, uh, "Did he see that coming?" Like, did he not see where that ball was going?
5:43
And then the big one that everybody's gonna talk about is, is in the, uh, [laughs] the bottom of the eighth when it was three to two Yankees.
5:50
And, uh, I'll even tran- I even transcribed it for you, Kelly, 'cause I knew how entertained you'd be by this. Oh, good. Good. Yes. Uh, this is, uh, Vinny Pasquantino is at the, uh, plate, runner on first.
5:59
Again, the Royals are down one. Costas, "Line drive base hit to center field. Uh, it was smothered out there. I don't know if it was caught." Darling is like, "It was caught." [laughs] Darling goes, "It was caught."
6:10
Costas goes, "Oh my gosh." It was just bad. And then there was this, and also- The, "Oh my gosh," was pretty good Costas. [laughs] Oh my gosh.
6:19
And then the worst, the worst thing, I don't know who caught this, but then they went to a two-shot of Costas and Darling in the booth.
6:25
And God bless Bob Costas, he's one of the great legendary broadcasters, but, ah, this was not a good night for him.
6:31
And they did a two-shot, and so Costas said something, and then it was time for Darling to talk, and he did this very strange... I thought he was joking.
6:38
You know that thing where you do when I say lean in and you put your hand on your- Yeah. Yeah. He, Costas did on camera. He just, he just goes. [laughs] And I thought he was j- I thought he was joking, but he wasn't.
6:49
Uh, by the way, uh, T. Shell doll, glad someone brought up Bob Costas- Yeah, yeah... 'cause I, I have brought this up before. He said, "It's beyond bad. I watch on mute.
6:55
He's more enthusiastic about a foul ball than a ground ball to end the game. He's supposed to bring the gravity of the moment to the viewer, especially in playoffs, but he's indifferent and boring."
7:03
I used to love Bob Costas. Yeah. I just feel bad that if it, it just seems like he doesn't see things correctly anymore. That one in the eighth was brutal. Anyway, uh- I mean, he's a pro. I'm not making any excuses.
7:13
He's- Baseball's a tough sport to call from that perspective, though, just 'cause there's so, so many lulls and then so many major moments.
7:21
Listen, I don't know who the Teenage Power Ranger mutant whatevers are, so we all have our flaws. [laughs] Um, but I, I just, uh, it was, it was noteworthy for that.
7:29
Anyway, Yankees try to close it out today against the Royals, and they got Cole going against Waka. And then the, uh, the final series. Man, was I wrong about this.
7:36
I thought this was a series that was gonna end in four, but the Padres get rolled by the Dodgers last night. Yeah.
7:42
Man, oh man, eight to nothing, and that is going to a game five back at Chavez Ravine, where I believe it'll be Yu Darvish versus Yamamoto in that one.
7:51
But the Dodgers just off the schneid yesterday, and Dodgers minus 142 favorites in game five on Friday, tomorrow night from Dodger Stadium. Yeah, see Darvish and, and undecided right now.
8:02
You gotta watch out for undecided. He's got good stuff. Undecided better than TBD, by the way. Yeah, he's, uh, better than TBD. Well.
8:09
Well, uh, so we'll get, again, we'll get, uh, Paul Spoor's thoughts on the games today and that Dodgers-Padres game five, as well as that from Adam Burke. Uh, Thursday Night Football tonight, Niners and the Rams.
8:18
Niners three point, excuse me, three and a half point road favorites in this one.
8:23
Um, and as always with, uh, Thursday Night Football, I always give a shout-out to Sean Corner over there at, uh, at Action Network, who does such a great job. But one of the things that I try to do, and I hope folks
8:32
recognize this from baseball and tennis through the years, and also with football, one of the big things, one of the big themes here on The Numbers Game is you try to find out what is, what is sustainable and what is unsustainable.
8:43
And oftentimes what's built into the market is something that is unsustainable, both to the good and to the bad.
8:49
And with the Niners, uh, who have won five straight against the, uh, the Seahawks by 12 or more points here historically, um, they're averaging the second-most yards per drive.
8:59
They're two and three in the standings, the Niners are.
9:01
But you'll notice that some of us still have them, some of us still have them number two in the power rankings, some of us still have them number one in power rankings. They're averaging the second-most yards per drive,
9:11
uh, but they're only ranking eighth in points per drive. Now, a lot of that has to do with their low red zone touchdown rate, scoring on just 41% of red zone trips, the fourth lowest in the league.
9:23
And the mainstream media is immediately gonna gravitate, somewhat correctly by the way, to the fact that they don't have CMC, right? Christian McCaffrey is out. But part of that is just rando. Mm. Right?
9:33
Part of that is just Jordan Mason fumbling the ball at the eight-yard line. Um, that's going to change. Uh, Seattle's defense, by the way, allowed 42 points to the Lions, 29 to the Giants, who are without Malik Nabers.
9:46
Um, and who did Seattle beat? Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and a combination of Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle. Uh, also the big thing is that o- on defense, Seahawks gonna be without, uh, Uchenna Nwosu.
9:59
They're gonna be out without Byron Murphy. They're gonna out- they're gonna be without T- uh, Tariq Woolen- Yeah... as well tonight. Big injuries on both sides, yep.
10:07
The bigger injury on the other side of the ball, the biggest, is that for all the warts that the San Francisco defense has had, and when I say warts, it's relative, right?
10:15
Just not as good as people necessarily think of them. Big loss for the Seahawks tonight on the offensive line, no George Fant, right? He's on injured reserve with a knee injury.
10:25
Stone Forsythe has been filling in for him. He's allowed the most quarterback hurries this year, 20, most quarterback pressures, 25, of any offensive lineman in the NFL this season, and who is he likely to be up against?
10:37
You got it, Nick Bosa. You put all that in the mix, for me, I'm all over the Niners. I loved it on guessing lines. I love the first reaction of guessing lines. I'm sticking with it right here.
10:48
I've got the Niners minus three and a half as Thursday Night Football, as my Thursday Night Football play. Yeah, I like it. I'm mad I didn't get involved, uh, uh, at three.
10:56
This is a, man, the Seahawks offensive line's just been an issue from start of season to, to where we're at right now. I- you wonder how good this team could be if they cleaned up the issues, uh, there in the trenches.
11:06
Uh, but the defensive injuries, defensive injuries on both sides really kind of lead me to liking the over tonight. This is a huge game though, game though. Massive game. One of the biggest games of the week.
11:15
I mean, you're talking about, uh, you went through a Seahawks schedule- For, for, for tie, for tiebreaker purposes, it's a massive game. Right? I mean, Niners. Yeah.
11:21
You're talking about a loss against the Vikings right now, which overall NFC seeding could come into play down the line, but you lost to the Rams a- a- and the Cardinals already in the West. That's right.
11:30
This is a huge game for the division. Three conference losses, as you say, two of which are in division. Yeah.
11:34
So if you lose this game, you are really behind the eight ball when it comes to tiebreakers playing into playoff situation later in the year. Yeah. So this- Team total over for me. Team total over for you on the Niners?
11:45
Yeah, Niners, yeah. Okay, there you go. Uh, Zach Cohen on the other side, a little football and tennis next.
11:50
[upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network Basketball season is ready to tip off, and the VSiN experts have been hard at work tracking the latest player moves to help you bet smarter.
12:07
13 days away, no, let's call it, uh, 12 days away, pardon me, from the basketball season, from the NBA season.
12:13
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today for as little as $9.99 for your first month, and get our all-new NBA betting guide featuring previews and power ratings on all 30 teams, best bets and futures from the VSiN experts, player prop and live betting strategies, plus senior NBA analyst JVT's favorite title bets.
12:29
Give yourself an edge this season. Get NBA betting guide, get the NBA betting guide, I should say, along with a full month of VSiN Pro for just 9.99 at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe.
12:42
And speaking of the NBA betting guide, we have, uh, one of the guys who is, uh, the most responsible for getting it done. He is our senior writer. You can follow him on betting on X.
12:52
It's the great Zach Cohen, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, joining us now. How you doing, Zach? I'm doing well. Yeah, I'm partly responsible, but if you don't like it, blame JVT. I don't know.
13:01
[laughs] That's a good answer right there. Hell yeah. So if you don't like it, it's JVT's primary thing. If you do like it, it was all about Zach. I'm even gonna stand by that. Yeah. I'll go with that too.
13:10
It was, it was really, it was, uh, first of all, let me just say, shout out to the both of you, 'cause it's you, Zach, it's JVT, it's Adam Burke, it's you, Kelly, as well, who's part of this as well. Yeah, a little bit.
13:19
Little bit. Um, what do you, if you had to guess, Zach, what's the collective number of hours that goes into producing a guide like this? Um,
13:29
gosh, I, it would have to be, it's at least an hour a team for each team preview, and then, you know, w- with the best bets that we do, I, I'd say we're all spending, you know, 20 hours writing it.
13:40
Man, and it, and you guys do a great job. What, what, uh, what was your jurisdiction? What did you write about? I, I handled the Eastern Conference this year.
13:48
JVT and I have been kind of switching off with all the guides we've done, which has ended up being a lot more NBA guides than you'd think l- 'cause last year we also did, you know, uh, a break, at the break, like All-Star break primer.
13:58
We also did a playoff primer. So we've been switching off. I got the Eastern Conference this time, but I was excited to get the Eastern Conference because I- I wanted to talk about the Hornets a little bit.
14:06
Oh, is, I was gonna ask you- [laughs]... without giving away, like, everything you wrote about, you, you are high on the Hornets? I'm pretty high on the Hornets. I have them to go over 29 and a half.
14:15
I also played their alternate win total at 35 plus at about plus 240 odds. Uh, it's a team that has been talented for years. Uh, the only real question mark with this team has been LaMelo Ball's health.
14:26
He has sprained his ankle, like, a million times, but for some reason, this year is the year that he is going to start wearing ankle braces- [laughs]... even though it's been a problem throughout his entire career.
14:34
Uh, they also hired a really good assistant coach from the Boston Celtics in Charles Lee to be their new head coach. Lee has won titles with the Milwaukee Bucks and the Boston Celtics.
14:44
With those teams, both of them had top 10, uh, adjusted offensive and defensive ratings, so he's a younger guy, but he's one that it's expected to change the culture pretty quickly in Charlotte, and I just really like the combinations that they have with, you know, LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller.
14:57
Uh, they added, added Josh Green from the Dallas Mavericks. They have Mark Williams coming back from injury soon, one of the better young two-way centers in the league.
15:05
I just think this is a team that's going to be a lot more competitive than people think, and it's a team that wants to be competitive this year. They're not looking to tank. All right.
15:12
I didn't think we'd be talking about the, uh, Charlotte Hornets on today's show, but here we are. An over for me as well. An over. And right there was Zach. Yes. Okay, an over on the Hornets.
15:19
And by the way, let me just say this.
15:20
I- in the Bay, uh, you know, there was a, there was a young player who had all kinds of ankle injuries, uh, as, you know, in his first years in the NBA, and we didn't know if he would ever become a player because of those injuries, and we like to call him Steph Curry.
15:32
So it worked out for him. Yeah. Let's see if it works out for, uh, LaMelo Ball in, uh, Charlotte. Uh, okay, let's go to tennis.
15:39
I was mentioning this in the first segment, which I think is a, a, just an interesting handicapping thing in any sport. Um, there's many ways to skin the cat in handicapping, right?
15:47
There's an entire spectrum of how folks do it. There's a supreme number side.
15:50
There's, you know, the opposite end would be smoke and mirrors, and then there's everything in between, a combination of, of whatever kind of factors, you know, one can think of.
15:59
And oftentimes, very different ways end up on the same matches. Um, you and I don't talk about what we're handicapping. We both liked Hailey Baptiste yesterday and Magda Linette.
16:12
I only ended up going with Bapt- Baptiste, who got rolled. I don't know what happened. It was the middle of the night, but he... Not in the middle of the night, but it was t- too late for me to see.
16:19
Um, so that didn't work out. You ended up having both Linette and Baptiste, uh, and Linette won, so good on you as a dog. But I just think that's an interesting point, right?
16:28
Like I- your approach ended up on the same matches and the same sides of those matches as mine did, and so that's just something to keep in mind for handicappers, that, um, anybody who's really arrogant about the way they do things, maybe they ought to be a little more humble about it.
16:45
Yeah, and I think that's the thing with me. I, I am really open-minded, so I, I do like to look at recent form and, you know, the statistics that I look at, you know, via Tennis Abstract and, uh, you know, Tennis Viz.
16:54
But at the same time, like, I also look at money line movement, and I saw the way that that Baptiste line was moving, and I just thought that that looked like the right side. So that's why I ended up jumping on it.
17:04
Uh, I ended up getting absolutely crushed on that one 'cause she got demolished. I did not watch the match either, but- Yeah...
17:09
Linette did end up winning, and that was one where I really just kind of trusted what I've seen this week, and it's the reason why I like her plus four and a half games with the sprinkle plus 350 against Coco Gauff.
17:19
She has just looked incredible throughout this tournament. She's hitting the cover off the ball. Uh, she's moving really well, just looks really confident.
17:26
Gauff is coming off, you know, a championship run last week, has looked a lot better since the US Open, but still a player that's double faulting a lot, still can make a lot of mistakes on the forehand side.
17:36
So I just think it's worth a shot on a red hot player, you know, at a really good price. The Linette plus the games, is that what you're doing? And, and sprinkling a little?
17:44
Yeah, it's plus four and a half games at plus 100, then I also put, like, a half unit- Okay... on, uh, plus 350. All right, Linette, who, by the way, Kelly, has not, uh, endeared herself to the Wuhan fan base- Yeah...
17:56
uh, by making some comment off the court about updating the, the virus database or something like that. She said something to that effect. It was- So she's not, she is not beloved in Wuhan. Oh, wow. [laughs] Yeah.
18:06
She also tried to apologize for it- Yeah And people-... after the match, and the reporter just completely cut her off.
18:11
Yeah, they wouldn't let her, they were like, "I'm not interested in your apology," and they kept going. [laughs] Yeah, not, not good. Not, not cute. That's good. Uh, okay, to football, let's go to the NFL.
18:20
What do you like best in week six? I like the Chargers minus two and a half against the Broncos.
18:25
Uh, I think that, you know, I've been really impressed with Denver, especially what they're doing on the defensive side of the ball. Second in the league in EPA per play allowed.
18:32
At the same time, Los Angeles is tied for them- with them for second in the league in EPA per play allowed.
18:37
And what this really comes down to for me is that I just trust Justin Herbert to make a few more plays than I do Bo Nix, especially with the Chargers coming off a bye week.
18:45
I just think that Los Angeles is going to be a little bit prepared for what Denver's going to be doing on the defensive side of the ball.
18:51
I know this is a home game for the Broncos, and they're playing really well, but I really do trust the Chargers in this spot.
18:56
And I also saw, you know, a trend, uh, that Jim Harbaugh 14-4-1 against the spread as a road favorite of seven or less in his head coaching career.
19:05
So these are the types of spots in which you could generally trust him to go out there and get a win and cover.
19:10
So I just think this is gonna be a game that is gonna be a little t- tough for the Broncos to win without, you know, a competent passing game. Yeah.
19:16
We, we might be oppo on this one, but I'm not, I'm not, like, super thrilled about it, I'll be honest with you, the... You know, it's not, it's not my favorite bet of all time.
19:23
[laughs] Yeah, you guys can have all the fun you want betting this game. [laughs] Yeah. [laughs] I'll sit on the sidelines. Yeah. I had the Broncos last week. It is not fun. It is not fun.
19:30
Because they can't throw, but it, it is what it is. Yeah. Uh, okay, that's- so that's your favorite in the NFL. How about college football?
19:37
Uh, the only one I have so far in college that I'm, that I'm really, really thrilled about is, is BYU minus four and a half against Arizona.
19:44
Uh, that's a game where Arizona has just been really up and down all season long. They have the big win at Utah, which absolutely, you know, stunned me. But at the same time, they're one and four against the spread.
19:54
That defense is very vulner- vulnerable, so I do think that the Cougars are going to be able to move the ball, especially on the ground, where they've been a really efficient running team this year, even though they don't really have, you know, a workhorse running back.
20:06
They just had a, kinda have a really solid group that they trust. All of them can handle their business. Uh, that also goes for Jake Retzlaff, the quarterback, uh, member of the tribe. Yes, sir.
20:15
He's played very well [laughs], uh, for BYU this season with his legs, with his arm. Uh, just a team that has looked really good on both sides of the ball, and just so difficult to beat in Provo.
20:25
So I think this is a game that BYU's going to win and, you know, move to 6 and 0, and I think that they're starting to look pretty live to win the, uh, conference. Loved Retzlaff last year. Love him even more this year.
20:35
Uh, he claims it. Eli Holsten yet to claim it. Just wanna give an update to everybody.
20:39
[laughs] Uh, okay, uh, before you go, and I know we don't usually get into, uh, you know, non-betting things or n- o- and, and into sports talk radio, but I do wanna do 90 seconds on Rafa Nadal, who announced this morning that he will in fact retire.
20:53
I mean, we knew this was coming. Uh, he has finally drawn the line in the sand. He says it's after the Davis Cup in November, his final time, uh, playing representing Spain.
21:03
Uh, 22 Grand Slam titles, 14 of which were the French Open. Nothing like Rafa on clay in sports. Like, that is the pinnacle. That Rafa on clay, it doesn't get better than that.
21:14
14 French, uh, four US Opens, two Australian Opens, and two Wimbledons, one of which in 2008, maybe the greatest match of all time, the final against Roger Federer. Yep.
21:25
And over $117 million in earnings just playing singles. Um, what is your... What, what would you say the, you know, the epitaph on his playing career tombstone would say? Just the ultimate competitor.
21:40
Probably the best competitor that I've seen in any sport ever. I think this is a guy that, you know, we look at his injury history now.
21:46
I, I think a lot of that has to do with how hard he's always played, just never letting a ball go, going for absolutely everything, trying to win every single match, even when he's out of them.
21:54
I think that ended up putting a huge toll on his body, but says a lot about who he is as a person. Uh, was really tough kinda watching him these last few years, just wanting to play and [laughs] not being able to do it.
22:05
I, I actually thought we'd end up getting one more year out of him, because I thought that he would try to recover and play as much he could, uh, o- on clay this next season, but obviously he doesn't feel he can do it.
22:15
And, you know, in watching some of the recent performances against, you know, some of the better players in the sport, it's easy to see why, but definitely, you know, tough to watch these last few years.
22:23
I kinda wish that he retired after he won that last Roland Garros. That would've been the awesome- the, the ultimate way to go out, but it is really hard to go out on top.
22:30
Yeah, Zach, who does stuff for the Tennis Channel as well. Th- th- you know, they say the golden age of tennis with, uh, Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal.
22:37
Um, if you had one match, if you needed to win one match at peak form, you'd take Rafa. Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it, man. Thanks, guys. Zach Cohen, everybody.
22:47
We'll talk WNBA and college ball next with Tyler Shoemaker. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
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23:33
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Uh, we get texts on the show, too.
23:41
Steve Fezzik, who is part of our, uh, Football Fridays here on The Numbers Game, he has, uh, live texted the show, and you know what he said?
23:47
He goes, "Caitlin Clark will never win one championship, and she will never win the MVP." Whoa. What the hell is that? We'll have to ask him about it. So no, no football tomorrow- That's a build-up, Ross...
23:59
no football tomorrow with Fezzik, just WNBA talk. That's right. I think, I think I've decided on my WNBA bets. I'm gonna make a couple.
24:07
What are you gonna- I think I'm gonna bet Stewart and Ainescu for MVP, finals MVP, 'cause what the hell are the odds that someone else on the Liberty actually wins that? Okay.
24:14
It's better than just laying the money line on Liberty. Uh, and then I think I'll go Liberty three to one, the, the ladies sweep, if you will. Oh, oh, the s- Yes... not the gentlemen sweep.
24:23
Not the gentlemen sweep, the ladies sweep. The ladies sweep. Yes, yes. I think I'm gonna do that and plus 270. [laughs] Good for you.
24:29
Um- The MVP thing sounds pretty reasonable, except that you can't probably name more Liberty than that, so that's a problem Um, yeah, that's fair. That's fair. Okay. Uh, Paul Sporer may have some WNBA thoughts.
24:40
I know he has some baseball thoughts. He joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line from Austin, Texas, where I know this is the longest streak of consecutively wear- uh, of, of wearing a baseball cap.
24:51
[laughs] The same baseball cap on this show. And of course, it's his Tigers hat. He's also rocking the Bronx Barkers T-shirt. It's Paul Sporer, everybody. How you doing, Paulie? What's going on, Gail?
25:01
Yes, obviously I like to mix up my hats during the season, but with my Tigers rolling, you know I'm not going, uh, I'm not going away from them.
25:07
Not a Yankees guy, but Aaron, uh, Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo both have dachshunds. I also do. So they're automatic winners in my book.
25:16
I don't really care what they do on the field, but I love both of them just for being wiener dog aficionados. Is Charlotte the dachshund? Yes. Was Charlotte the one who once vomited on air while we had you on? Right.
25:27
That's correct. [laughs] Charlotte is the- Just curious... menace/- Yeah... queen of the house. Yeah. Yes. Yeah. Moments in a Numbers Game history. Great moments. [laughs] Numbers Game.
25:35
I only wish we had the video of that. Paul was such a pro, though. Paul just kept going, realizing the disaster- Handled it... that had happened right below him. [laughs] It was fantastic. Uh, okay, about your Tigers.
25:46
Let's start there. Um, by the way, Paul Sporer at FanGraphs and of course the host of the Sleeper and the Bus podcast, um, Mr. Baseball.
25:54
Uh, a life of, uh, he's, you know, if, uh, if, you know, the MLB Network did a Baseball Life, they should have that on Paul Sporer. Yeah. Thank you. So then- That's too kind...
26:02
the Tigers consecutive three to nothing shutouts. Um, now they are at a minimum, right, at a minimum here, they're guaranteed Scubal going in game five. Right. But that's if necessary, right?
26:14
They have a game four today in Detroit where they could close it out. Bibee on the hill for the Guardians. Uh, the Tigers gonna do their AJ Hinch patchwork thing. Mm-hmm. How do you feel about today's game?
26:26
Obviously there's, you know, I think the interesting thing is if they can get it done today, then you could set up Scubal- Perfect scenario... yeah, you could set up Scubal for a one four seven- Yeah...
26:37
potentially in a championship series. So I guess, I guess that's the hope, huh? Of course, and it is exactly what they could get, and it would be so amazing.
26:47
The pessimist in me, the realist in me wants to say that maybe not every single solitary thing is gonna break the Tigers way during this run. It pretty much has so far.
26:58
That said, I'm looking at them as a home dog, and I'm feeling pretty solid here.
27:02
Again, I love having kind of the backup of Scubal, um, you know, in Cleveland for game five if necessary as a, both a Tigers fan, but even as, as a bettor, if you bet on the series or if you've been, you know, following the Tigers here throughout these early playoffs.
27:15
Um, we saw Olson make one bad pitch.
27:17
It happened to be his very first pitch, uh, against Lane Thomas, a righty of all people, because he's not a very good righty, righty hitter, and it goes out for the big homer, and that was part of that big meltdown first inning, um, back in game one.
27:30
He was pretty excellent beyond that. He had the same thing happen in his first start back against KC, um, in September. Coming off the IL, it was gonna be a shortened start. He made one bad pitch.
27:40
I think it was the same piece of crap breaking ball, like stop throwing that thing. He threw it to Bobby Witt, and it was a grand slam.
27:46
So literally two bad pitches is about the only damage we've seen on Reese Olson since his return off the IL. And don't forget, he was one of the best pitchers going, uh, during the first half.
27:55
Now, the only tricky part there is we don't know if he's gonna throw or how long he's gonna throw, and that's where the pitching chaos thing, you know.
28:02
Uh, AJ Hinch loves calling it that, and I love the little title for it. It's really only chaos for folks like us, those on the other end that don't really know, 'cause he knows exactly what he's gonna do.
28:11
He might have his little trees of like, if this goes, then we go to this player, and if this goes right, then we go to this player, but he knows exactly what he's gonna do. We don't.
28:19
But I think if they get an opener for an inning or two and then Olson for five, I really, really like their chances to close it out today as a home dog with the Tigers. Wow. Amazing.
28:29
Again, a team that on August, on the morning of August 11th- Yeah...
28:34
was just, what were they, 11, like 10 games out or 11 games out of the final playoff position, and absolutely turned it around, and you, but you are good to point this out as well, because it's not just the Tigers having turned it around, it's the fact that the Twins had to collapse too.
28:50
Had to. Had to. There's just- None of this happens without that... exactly.
28:54
It, it takes two to tango here, and I love what my Tigers did, but again, you know, i- if, if the Twins don't come all the way down, they can't get there.
29:01
Now, they ended up beating them by f- four games, so they didn't have to have the complete collapse that the Twins did. But they had to come down at the same time, and that's what's so key here.
29:09
And they turned the kids loose too, and I want to dispel the whole like, what if they didn't trade Flaherty? Stop with that, folks.
29:14
They wouldn't have their starting shortstop, and they probably wouldn't have done the youth movement commitment that really spurred this, right?
29:20
If they keep Flaherty, Canha, and Gio Urshela around, they probably keep running those veterans out, right? Like, that would, that would make the most sense. Instead, they committed to youth.
29:30
Wenzel Perez, Parker Meadows returns. Colt Keith was obviously there all year. Spencer Torkelson gets called back up. Justin Henry- Moi.
29:37
Um, there's somebody I'm missing, but I g- uh, uh, Trey Sweeney, of course, who I just mentioned. Jace Young, Dylan Dingler. They went full youth movement, and I just think it's a bunch of dumb kids.
29:47
When I say dumb, I mean, I don't really mean they're dumb. I just mean they don't know any better, right? Mm-hmm. So they're not dealing with any sort of, like, pressure.
29:53
It's kind of that pressure-free kids just balling out, and that never happens if they don't trade Flaherty. So I, I don't like that pushback.
30:00
As they get further, you see more and more of like, well, what if they had Flaherty? It wouldn't have worked like this, the butterfly effect and all. It's amazing. Baseball's amazing, and, uh- It really is...
30:09
like Paul going homer with his, uh- Right... lean to the dog today. Um, he can be accused of that, but he sounds like he's pretty objective. Uh- I, I, I accept that. Like- Yeah...
30:17
there's no doubt that there is some there, but I don't come at this unreasoned- Yeah, no... and say, "Just bet the Tigers for funsies." Yeah. For, not for funsies. We don't do anything for funsies. Right.
30:25
Uh, the second game is the game four between the Yankees and the Royals. The Royals on the brink now in, uh, what has been a really strange series because both- Mm-hmm...
30:33
both the respective stars for these respec- uh, these stars for the respective teams. Aaron Judge, 1 of 11 with five strikeouts, 11 left on base, and 14 plate appearances. He did get hosed on a check swing yesterday.
30:45
Um, and then Bobby Witt Jr.- He did... finally gets a hit late yesterday as well.
30:49
So both teams really without their biggest bat, and yet here we are, Yankees two to one lead, and it's Gerrit Cole today going up against Michael Wacha with the Yankees the justifiable favorite Yeah, absolutely.
31:02
W- uh, by the way, with Witt struggling is kind of why the Yankees fans need to shut the hell up about Judge. Like, seriously. First off, you don't get anywhere where you're at without him.
31:11
I, I, I just, I'm not big on booing the superstars. I think it's kind of stupid, like they have to be perfect all the time. And like you said, it's a cancel out.
31:18
The, each, each superstar is not pulling their weight right now. Of course, Soto is, is the, you know, the next in line for the Yankees, so that makes it easy. This is a pretty, pretty big spread here.
31:29
I actually really like Wacha. I'm not telegraphing both my picks here with the hat and shirt. I'm actually gonna go with the Royals to push it to a game five. I'm gonna go both r- home dogs today. Let's go.
31:38
I think Wacha can handle this team. Now, I, I do worry, you know, any time, the deeper we go, the more likely that Judge is gonna get back on track, right? There's law of averages. Like, he, he's not bad. We know that.
31:50
Unless he has some sort of injury that he's hiding, we know that he's gonna come back around. And so the longer things go with the Yankees, he'll probably come out of it.
31:58
But, you know, I think even Wacha could survive a solo or two run shot from him. They do have to score, though, and obviously Witt needs to step up. But I think they force a game five here and a real tight one.
32:08
I think it's gonna be like a 3-1, 2-1 type game here. I'd really like to see a nail-biter between Cole and Wacha.
32:14
Obviously Cole, one of the best pitchers in baseball, but Wacha sneakily one of the really, really solid mid-rotation type guys. Lugo gets a lot of the love, um, for this year, and rightfully so. He was brilliant.
32:24
But they were a bit of a tag team, right? The Lugo-Wacha signings, I believe they happened very close together.
32:29
It was essentially pulling both of them from San Diego, and they're not where they are without L- without Wacha as well.
32:34
So Lugo gets his love, but Wacha needs to get a lot of love for what he did this year for them, too. Man, it's amazing, this postseason with guys like Wacha and, um, Quintana. Right. Martín Pérez is also out there.
32:45
Like, guys I was betting on games on over a decade ago, and they're- Right... here they are in the postseason. Alex Cobb yesterday. Yeah. Uh, real quick, last 30 seconds.
32:52
Game five tomorrow between the Padres and the Dodgers. It's gonna be Darvish. We don't know yet who it will be for the Dodgers. Maybe Yamamoto, but we're not sure. What is your sense? Yeah.
33:01
I, I think the Padres are gonna be able to close it out.
33:03
You know, it s- sucks to lose that one yesterday, especially with Ceas going on the short rest and getting clobbered, but I really like the way this Padres team is playing.
33:09
I think their resolve is strong, their team chemistry, right? There was a lot of talk about that last year. I never really bought into it, by the way. But either way, I think it's back this year.
33:17
Winning helps produce that. I think they close it out in LA, and, uh, the Padres win. Paul, this is the best time of year, man. It's so great. Agreed. Enjoy, and congratulations on the Tigers' success.
33:26
Uh, may it continue for you, sir. That'd be great. Thanks so much, Gil. Talk to you later. Paul Spohn @Spohrer, S-P-O-H-N-E-R, on Twitter.
33:34
Kelly and I will be back with the Larceny Smooth Bet of the Week next, right here on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music]
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