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Oct 15, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | October 15, 2025
Best of A Numbers Game | October 15, 2025
00:00
47:30
1×
Transcript
0:00
Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more. That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
0:08
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
0:16
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
0:22
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
0:29
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
0:38
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you can trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
0:47
From a great deal today to a great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
0:59
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
1:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158. It's Gil Alexander. That right there is Kelly Bidley, everybody. Hey, yo.
1:21
Kelly, Kelly Bidley. How you doing, man? Good, man. How you doing? I'm good. It's a Wednesday during football season. That's right. Uh, that means, uh, Wednesdays we, uh, Kelly just schedules Ws on the show.
1:30
Wishneff, Warren Sharp, Whalen, that's Nick Whalen talking NBA with us. Oh, a bunch of NBA from Nick. Yeah, man. Nick, Nick's done a lot of NBA stuff here in the off season, so he's ready to talk about it.
1:41
RotoWire senior analyst. Warren and Wishneff on the, on the National Football League, of course.
1:45
Will Hill, keeping with the Ws, uh, host of the Shoulda Bet More podcast, his thoughts on the Major League Baseball playoffs, which of course continues. It's the MLB postseason, by the way. They don't say playoffs.
1:55
The postseason- Playoffs... of Major League Baseball, uh, which continues tonight with game three in Seattle with the Mariners up two to nothing. Tomorrow we should have a double header.
2:05
We will have a double header, and then Friday may be a double header, and that will be the end of double headers. Oh, that's no fun.
2:12
But that means that for F- Friday to be a double header, it means one of these series would have to, uh, continue. Continue [laughs] If you know what I mean. Yeah, yeah. The AL specifically.
2:19
Wonder what Greg's middle name is. Maybe he's a- And then Greg W. Peterson, I was gonna say. Yeah, maybe he's a William- Yeah... or something like that. Greg W. Peterson. Greg W. Peterson. Mm-hmm. We'll just go...
2:29
lead with that. That's what it is. That's it. That's how you can be a guest on this show on Wednesdays. Just come up, come to us with a W. You're in there. Most of that wasn't planned. Most of it. Some of it was.
2:39
Yeah, something we noticed. Like win totals. Win... Oh, and win total Wednesdays. Now, here's the thing with the win total Wednesdays. We have a win total segment coming up.
2:46
We're gonna look at adjusted season NFL, adjusted NFL season win totals. Uh, there are how many teams in the National Football League? There are 32 of them. 32.
2:55
You know how many season, adjusted season win totals perusing through there that I like? More than I have seen Gil Alexander list in six plus years of looking at adjusted season win totals with Gil. Way too many.
3:08
I didn't even actually count. What was the final count? Eight? 10. Nine? [laughs] More than a quarter of the league, I like the adjusted season win totals. [laughs] We'll go through them schedule by schedule. Oh, man.
3:15
I grabbed four and I thought I was heavy. And we'll also do the, uh, and also with the W, the, uh, NFL whip-around. The whip-around. Cool whip-around. We'll do that momentarily.
3:25
Last night, Major League Baseball, the Dodgers do it again. Dodgers. Here's the thing.
3:30
If they have this kind of starting pitching on a nightly basis, forget about them not winning the World Series, they're not gonna lose a game. Mm-hmm. This is insane what's going on with this- Yep... with this club.
3:40
Uh, and the, uh, Tigers should have taken note, you know? [laughs] They should have. Just Scoobel every inning. Yeah, Scoobel every inning.
3:46
Uh, coming off the heels of the Blake Snell eight-inning, facing the minimum 24 batters shutout,
3:56
one h- on one hit, 10 Ks and no walks, which could arguably be considered one of the best post-season starting pitching performances in history. Mm-hmm.
4:06
Uh, then they get a complete game from Yoshinobu Yamamoto last night. Complete game, where he gave up his one earned run on the very first pitch, a Jackson Chio solo shot. One to nothing Milwaukee, and that was when...
4:20
That sent Milwaukee at the Costco into a frenzy, as Mark Borchardt said yesterday. [laughs] At the Costco Park. At the Costco Park. Uh, not just theirs, but any indoor antiseptic park like that. But that was it.
4:31
That was, that was it for runs. Um, Yamamoto ends up, nine innings pitched, complete game, one earned run on three hits, seven Ks, one walk, 111 pitches. Five to one Dodgers after the, uh, Chio solo shot.
4:46
Teoscar with a one-out solo shot in the bottom of the first, uh, to tie it up. Then they took a lead later in that inning on a Paez RBI double. I know how much you like Paez. Yeah, Andy. Jason Weingarten loves him.
4:59
Uh, top six, uh, two out, no one on, on a 3-2 pitch. That would have been Peralta's last batter either way. Muncy solo shot, straight away center, three to one.
5:08
Ohtani one out RBI single in the seventh after Kiké doubled and was sacrificed over four to one. And then the top of the eighth, Edmund RBI single, knocking in Smith, who had singled to start the frame.
5:18
Five to one Dodgers. Uh, game three in the NLCS is tomorrow. Game four is on Friday as they head back to Chavez Ravine. And the Dodgers have Glasnow and Ohtani set up for three and four. And a rested bullpen. Yes.
5:34
[laughs] Though the bullpen is their bugaboo, right? Yeah, yeah, I know. That's their kryptonite. So, but as long... Hey, look, as long as your starter's going eight, nine innings, that doesn't matter.
5:43
They can just chill in the bullpen. Uh, Dodgers are now the...
5:47
The Brewers, by the way, if you have any interest in the Brewers, and by the way, I'm, I'm guessing you should not, the Brewers are seven to one to come back and win this series.
5:55
But this is, this is domination in every sense of the word. Now, the Mariners and the Blue Jays, game three is tonight.
6:01
Mariners did the same thing to the Blue Jays the Dodgers did the Brewers, which is to say- Go on the road and win the first two games of the best of seven CS.
6:10
And in these situations where teams win the first two games of a best of seven CS, the last 25 times that has happened, uh, in best of sevens, 22 and three to close out the series. So there you go.
6:24
Yeah, that's pretty good. Tonight, Mariners and, uh, Mariners now at home. Remember, these are two three twos, which explains why we might have a double header tomorrow.
6:32
Not, n- doesn't explain tomorrow's double header, but certainly would explain the potential double header on Friday.
6:37
Uh, these are two three twos, so three chances to win two games at home for both the Dodgers and the Mariners. Tonight at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, uh, it is Shane Bieber going for the Jays.
6:48
It is George Kirby going for the Mariners. Bieber on the year, um, [smacks lips] a 3.57 ERA. The advanced stats were worse though. He, uh, had a really high home run to fly ball rate, 21.1%.
7:03
Um, he's great against lefties, but again, that's not necessarily an advantage here against, against this Mariners team, which has, uh, you know, not only...
7:16
Th- th- the right-handed heavy basically, and they have switch hitters that can go to the right side, namely in, uh, in Raleigh and Polanco.
7:22
So it, it's, it's not a, it's not a favorable matchup for Bieber necessarily in that regard. By the way, the hard contact rate for him all year was not, was not good. This is
7:31
n- near 50%, by the way, on the, on the hard contact rate. This is not vintage Bieber. Can we say vintage Bieber? Is that allowed, that he had a, a vintage moment? Uh, post Tommy John surgery here. It is what it is.
7:41
His only appearance so far in the post-season, game three at the Yankees, um, in that series. He only went two and a third, gave up two earned runs, five hits, two Ks, one walk.
7:52
On the other hand, George Kirby of the Mariners, uh, Seattle by the way, minus 130 favorite in this game tonight.
7:57
George Kirby of the Mariners, his two post-season appearances both in the series against the, uh, the Tigers obviously. Game one, five innings, gave up two earned runs, six hits, eight Ks, one walk on 94 pitches.
8:09
And then in the decider, the game five decider, the extra inning affair against the, uh, the Tigers, he got the start there. He went five innings.
8:17
Only gave up one earned run on three hits, six Ks, no walks on 66 pitches. So Kirby's been solid here in the post-season. So listen, I'm, I'm, I, I gotta shout out Will Hill again because I wasn't even thinking about it.
8:28
Before the Dodgers series he says, "You know, the, uh, the sweep on the Dodgers is seven to one." I'm like, "Ooh, I like that." Bet that immediately, right?
8:36
Uh, I don't have any, I don't have any action here in the Blue Jays-Mariners necessarily. Am I as confident in the Mariners as I am in the Dodgers? No, but I think most people would agree the Dodgers are the Dodgers.
8:45
That's a whole different category. But I'm pretty super confident, you know, nonetheless, that they're gonna close this out in the three game, uh, [tsks]
8:52
uh, within, before they get back, before Toronto has a chance to get it back to their home ballpark north of the border. So Blue Jays are s- I mean, still alive, right?
8:59
The, their, their superpower is they don't strike out, but they're up against it for sure. All right. I got a, I got a couple questions for you, which one of them I think you just answered.
9:07
But better chance to come back in the series? Oh, Mariners. I mean, uh, Blue Jays. Blue Jays. For sure. Okay. Yeah. Better chance to win game three? Uh, I'd say Blue Jays. [laughs] I'd still say Blue Jays.
9:18
Still say Blue Jays. [laughs] Yeah. Okay. I mean, the Dodgers are minus 190 favorites. But, but that's only, that's only because it's the Dodgers on the other side of that equation, right?
9:25
Yeah, they are minus 190- Yeah... favorites in the game versus minus 125. I mean, it's not over. Let's put it that way. It's, uh, nothing's over in baseball, right? I mean, these still... Baseball is still random.
9:34
What's the old stats by Lopez, uh, stat that we haven't s- I don't think we've cited it this post-season? I, I re- I rely on you to bring it up. Don't ask me what it is.
9:40
Uh, if, if 80% of the favorites in the NBA best of sevens get through or the NBA playoffs get through, 'cause the NBA's top-heavy, what would it take for 80% of favorites to get through in hockey?
9:52
You'd have to play best of 51s based on the random nature of that sport in the post-season. And in baseball you'd have to play best of 75s.
10:00
That sounds great, but when you have behemoths like the Dodgers where everybody got healthy at the right time, or they were just sort of sandbagging and were waiting for this moment, which we kinda knew they were, um,
10:12
yeah, I don't know if that stat means much. That's the 75, so they should increase the World Series to that, Gil. [laughs] Did you, uh- Hopefully... did you catch the Bill 80 trivia this morning?
10:21
No, it was Bill 80 trivia. Uh, Bill 80 trivia for you, okay? Yeah. This is in the newsletter. I put it in the rundown, so hopefully you didn't read to the top of the rundown. Bill, Bill 80, founder of VSiN.
10:27
That's right, and, uh, executive editor of the website and everything we do. Former Chicago Sun-Times employee. I'm just making up titles now. Let's just give out, let's just give out his entire resume.
10:37
[laughs] Said executive editor. That's definitely not the case. When Greg, when Greg Peterson was on and said that he's run 12 miles a day for nine years- Oh, that's right...
10:44
Gil also pointed out that he did it for eight years in a row or something like that. It's very impressive. Not t- about 12 miles, but ran every day. I did it one day, and then I quit. [laughs] Kelly- Did it one day...
10:52
Kelly didn't make it out of the gym. All right. 28 road teams have taken a 2-0 lead in MLB playoff history. 25 went on to win the series. Can you name the three that lost? Oh, so 25 and the rest... I said 22 and three.
11:05
25 and three in that scenario. Mm-hmm. Um, the, the, I don't know, but it's gotta be a team that played the Yankees is my guess on one of them. I don't know the answer, but- All right.
11:16
We go all the way back to 1996 is the last time. That would be the Braves, and then '86 Red Sox. Bra- Braves did it against who? I don't know. I just have the winners. Oh, geez. Okay. [laughs] Uh, '86 Red Sox.
11:28
So that, the Braves eventually losing to the Yankees in the World Series that year. And then the '85 Cardinals. What was the one in the middle? '86 Red Sox.
11:35
'86 Red Sox, who fell behind I wanna say the Angels, was it, in the, in the CS? Do I have that right? I believe. Um, and what was the last one? Because- What was the last one on that? '85 Cardinals.
11:48
'85 Cardinals, the year before that. Cardinals end up winning... No, no. The, did the Royals end up winning the World Series in '85, or was that the Cardinals? I'm getting it all screwed up now.
11:58
Believe it was the, uh, the Royals who end up winning the '85 World Series on the Don Denkinger call at first. Royals were '80- Yeah. Royals were '85. Yeah. Yep. Don Denkinger call at first base.
12:07
Oh, that's when baseball was baseball, everybody. That's right. [sighs] Kelly doesn't remember it, but I know you do. No, no robot umpiring that Kelly could screw up or anything.
12:17
[laughs] That was a great- Just a guy behind the plate... great exchange yesterday we had. It was totally like, "What is he doing?" [laughs] "Does he not understand it here?" Uh, we'll come back.
12:25
Uh, we will do an NFL whip-around. Once again, just our quick thoughts, survivor, ATS, uh, on the whole NFL card, and NFL season win totals as well, adjusted, and I like a bunch of them.
12:36
But first, the aforementioned Will Hill, sitting on a Dodgers sweep ticket as well. All his thoughts on tonight's game in Major League Baseball, week seven in the NFL, maybe some college football. We got it all.
12:45
It's the Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat rock music] Buy smart, drive for less, and trade for more.
12:55
That's Toyota affordability, and it all starts with a great deal on a truck from your local Toyota dealer.
13:00
Make a smart buy on the off-road-ready Tacoma or half-ton Tundra, two of Toyota's most capable and longest-lasting trucks.
13:07
Built with the strength for the tough jobs, the tech to power your next big adventures, and the rugged style for everything in between.
13:13
Or discover Toyota's off-road lineup, including the iconic 4Runner and Land Cruiser, designed to go beyond the everyday.
13:19
And with Toyota's proven reputation for quality and reliability, plus available hybrid power on many models, you can get more for every mile and drive for less along the way.
13:29
And long after you leave the lot, your Toyota keeps delivering with great resale value, so you could trade in for more when you're ready for your next Toyota.
13:36
From a great deal today to great value tomorrow, a Toyota is right for you. Shop toyota.com for deals and details, or stop by your local Toyota dealer today. Toyota, let's go places.
13:51
A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Back on the Numbers Game live from Circa Resort Casino, downtown Las Vegas. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin.
13:59
You can follow Kelly on Twitter at kellybidelon, K-E-L-L-E-Y Bidelon. Mm-hmm. Not Bidlin. That's right. Uh, and then, um- Most people do pronounce my last name like that. They do?
14:11
Nobody pronounces my first name like that, but yeah. Beating the Book for me. By the way, Megapod today.
14:15
Megapod, uh, makeshift Megapod on a Wednesday because we are on the outside of the studio, so I'll be doing it from home today. Our guest, Wes Reynolds. Oh, really? What are you looking at over there?
14:25
I was making sure your computer was plugged in. Oh, it's plugged in. Wyatt told me I had one job today- [laughs] Yeah... was to make sure your computer was charging. Make sure [laughs] that's good. Great. Uh, let's see.
14:33
Uh, this is... Let's see here. We got tweets at Beating the Book from p- uh, Paul Nelson. "Darnold had four touchdown passes against Tampa. Detroit has better receivers.
14:41
If Goff is better than Darnold, isn't the over on Detroit's team total the bet?" The bet or the better, he says. Can you read that slower? Yeah, he says Darnold [laughs] I had the same reaction.
14:51
[laughs] Darnold had four touchdown passes against Tampa. Yeah. Detroit has better receivers. If Goff is better than Darnold, isn't the over on Detroit's team total the bet? I don't hate it. I don't hate it, either.
15:05
He had a spell check on there. That's, he said better. Bye week picks. Now, where it really gets interesting in that game to me is the other side, right?
15:11
Where you ha- [laughs] where you have Baker Mayfield and the nobodies versus the [laughs] Lions defensive backfield, which is a bunch of nobodies. Bye week picks. "Didn't know D'Angelo passed until you said it.
15:20
Brown Sugar album is still on heavy rotation." Brown Sugar album is a seminal neo-soul record, 1995. Just so great. Uh, may he rest in peace, the great D'Angelo. Joe R. Sue, "Liking that Bengals bet.
15:33
It makes sense just for them to lose tomorrow and then get the better number?" Yeah, as I mentioned with the first three, waiting a week might be the play with the Bengals, the Steelers, and, uh, and the Pats.
15:43
Uh, this is from Big O ATX. "Yo, Gil, Kelly, the only problem with your adjusted win total idea is that you have all the AFC South teams under. Someone's gotta win those divisional games.
15:52
I like the Texans at 6-1 in that division." Well, we didn't each have them all under. Together we had them under, so I, I didn't have Jacksonville, for instance. Kelly did. So not exactly, but I hear what you're saying.
16:04
Silent Mike D, "Gil, I know you're a very smart and, uh, guy, but listening to your under recommendations," an analogy, guys.
16:10
"But listening to your under recommendations, it occurred to me to ask you if you cross-reference these unders when playing each other, i.e., somebody has to win." Yes, I did so on all those.
16:18
So again, something, something has to give in, in certain ones of those r- of those, uh, cross-checkers, but there weren't enough to, uh, alter those recommendations. So that's that on that.
16:30
Nick Whalen joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line. You can follow Nick on Twitter at Whalen. Just substitute the number one for the, uh, letter L and you got yourself some Whalen.
16:39
Rotoworld senior analyst, VSiN host as well joining us now. How you doing, Nick? Doing well, guys. Doing well. Uh, as well as I can coming off of a, uh- [laughs]... a devastating Jaguars loss- Oh... in week six.
16:51
But nevertheless- You'll, you'll get over it... we, we press on. We press on. Um, all right. You have some, you have a bunch of NFL thoughts. Let's begin with, uh, the total in the Saints-Bears game.
17:03
Oh, there's a barn burner. 47, what are your thoughts on this? Yeah, I, I found myself gravitating a little bit more toward totals this week.
17:11
You know, I was listening to you guys on the, you know, Guessing Lions pod yesterday, and I know Kelly said like, "Man, this is, like, the fewest bets that I've put in early in the week." And I, I kinda feel the same.
17:20
I don't love the board overall, but I, I think we're getting a decent number here on Saints-Bears. I like the under 47 and a half. You know, Chicago has been an over team this season.
17:29
Still not fully sure that I, I trust this offense. You know, you look back before the bye, they were gifted four turnovers by Vegas in that game.
17:36
You know, they win on a blocked field goal at the end, only scored 25 points despite those four turnovers. They get three turnovers from Washington, uh, the other night.
17:45
And again, both of those games still barely ended up going over this 47 and a half number. I, I actually have a decent amount of respect for the New Orleans Saints.
17:53
You know, this is a, a team that offensively does struggle to put up points, which is great when you're looking at an under.
17:58
But the defense is pretty solid, you know, has faced some, some quality opponents so far this season. Rates out about middle of the NFL in a lot of the key statistics that you look at.
18:07
Held New England to just three points in the second half this past week. I, I was on the under in that game.
18:11
I have no idea how that hit when we had 38 points at the half, but the Saints were able to lock it down After halftime.
18:18
And guys, I, I say this with caution, extreme caution, but Spencer Rattler kinda playing okay football. He's not turning the ball over this season.
18:25
I, I don't know that the Bears can count on another two, three, four turnover game here to set them up with short fields. Saints have only four total turnovers through six games. Through six games.
18:36
Now, it is a bit of a... I was just talking about betting against human achievement. You have a bit of an underfest here, so I like this. You also like the under in the Falcons-Niners game. That's at 47 and a half.
18:47
Yeah, and I think at first glance, this seems like an over spot.
18:50
You know, Falcons put up, what, 335 yards of offense, uh, on Monday night in the first half against the Buffalo Bills, and then completely went cold, as the Falcons are, are want to do.
18:59
Um, I, I'm not sure I'm ready to trust Atlanta away from home. You know, we've seen a couple explosive spots for them, you know, certainly the Buffalo game and, and then the Washington game prior to the bye.
19:09
But on balance, this is a team that really isn't scoring all that much. 20, 22, 0 in the Carolina game. 34 and 24 through their first five games. Scored just three points after that huge first half against Buffalo.
19:23
The, the Fred Warner absence is what worries me here if I'm on the under, because San Francisco gave up something like seven and a half yards per play after Fred Warner went out last week.
19:32
So that is massive, but at the same time, I, I don't trust Michael Penix the way that I do Baker Mayfield, even without any weapons in the second half of that game.
19:40
I, I don't know that either team will be able to run the ball all that effectively. I have a little bit more faith in Atlanta getting that part of its game going.
19:47
But San Francisco, I mean, Christian McCaffrey's been great if you're playing in half or full PPR fantasy leagues. If you're not in PPR, [laughs] he hasn't been that good. He, he's not been very effective.
19:55
He has not been very efficient as a runner. And I think one of the more underrated storylines so far this season, guys, is the, the reemergence of this Atlanta Falcons defense, which has looked really, really good.
20:05
Top five unit against the pass. They're getting pressure in ways that they certainly had not over the last few years. Uh, you know, well on pace to, you know, smash their sack total from last season.
20:16
So what we've seen the script over and over with San Francisco, and, you know, we'll see how many pieces they get back this week. But if it is indeed Mac Jones, all he does is throw the ball at high volume.
20:25
I don't know that you wanna do that against this Atlanta defense. So I, I actually see this game as, as a bit lower scoring.
20:31
All right, there are two games, two other games, that are as low or lower, uh, lined in terms of the total this week in the NFL. But, um, one of them you still like the under on, which is this Dolphins game, right?
20:45
Oh, no. Pardon me, the Texans-Seahawks game. Yeah. The Dolphins is another one that's, uh, lined low. Texans-Seahawks is 41. I'm seeing some 40 and a halves as well right now. Yeah. You still like the under.
20:56
Yeah, uh, this one's a little bit dicier. Obviously grab the 41 and a half if you're with me on this.
21:00
And, and Seattle's passing game, Sam Darnold has been so efficient and so effective that I, I get why this, this feels a little bit dicey.
21:06
But, you know, even in another really good Sam Darnold game, in my opinion, last week against Jacksonville, Seattle only got to 20 points. You know, Houston's pass defense among the be- best in the NFL.
21:16
Seattle, uh, I think is going to get after C.J. Stroud in this game. We saw them pressure Trevor Lawrence 39 times last week. [laughs] 39 times. Jeez.
21:25
And look, that Jacksonville offensive line had actually been playing reasonably well to start the season. Last two weeks, not so much. But I, I have zero faith in the Houston Texans' O line.
21:34
And, you know, this is a team that you look at their first four games of the season before, uh, whatever happened against Baltimore last week. Uh, totals in those games came in at 23, 39, 27, and 26 total points.
21:46
So I, I think this could end up looking kind of a lot like that Texans-Jags game in week three. That was 17 to 10. Maybe not quite as low as that, that Texans-Rams game in week one. That was a 14 to 9 game.
21:56
But I'm just not putting a whole lot of stock in what we saw from Houston offensively in that Baltimore game.
22:02
I, I think they've shown us, you know, four games worth of sample of this being a very bad offense in one game where they looked really good against, like, the most banged up defense of all time.
22:10
So I, I don't trust Houston really to hold up its end of the bargain, and I, I think that pass defense with Derek Stingley, that pass rush of Houston is going to get after Sam Darnold, uh, in ways that, you know, he really hasn't had to face these last few weeks.
22:22
Yeah. By the way, the two games that are lined a little lower, again, the, uh, Broncos-Giants is at 40, and that Dolphins- Yeah... Browns game at 39 and a half. All right, a couple sides here.
22:31
The biggest l- the biggest spread of the week, Chiefs favored by 11 and a half hosting the Raiders. It is a team that traditionally the Chiefs have had some difficulty with here in recent years. Yeah.
22:40
But you are laying the wood on the Chiefs. I am. I am. I- call me a square, call me a sheep, uh, whate- whatever term you wanna use, but I, I like the Chiefs here. They're at home.
22:51
And, and like you said, the, like, the, the counter to this is that even when the Chiefs have been at their absolute peak and the Raiders have been terrible, they, they always seem to play the Chiefs well.
22:59
So that is in the back of my mind here, but I just, I, I don't know where the advantage is whatsoever for the Raiders in this game. They, they cannot run the ball.
23:06
They're the worst running team, [clears throat] excuse me, efficiency-wise, unless they're playing the Chicago Bears, in the NFL. And I, I think, you know, they'll try to run Ashton Jeanty, as they do every week.
23:16
It'll probably be, like, 18 carries for 41 yards, and it'll be another one of those games where you wish you didn't start him in fantasy.
23:22
But that, that ultimately means that you're going to force Geno Smith to, to throw the ball if you wanna try to keep up with Kansas City. And we know what happens when Geno Smith has to throw it 30, 35-plus times.
23:32
There are going to be mistakes. He's probably going to throw a pick or two in this game. And I, I think Kansas City, I get the sense, like, they, they kinda know they're picking up momentum.
23:39
I know they're three and three right now, but then [laughs] they feel like maybe the best three and three team that we've had in a while. I, I think the defense has continued to get better and better every week.
23:48
You know, they, I thought they looked terrible to begin the season in São Paulo against the Chargers. That defense continues to improve.
23:54
And the big thing here, guys, is you get Rashee Rice back, and I, I think that is going to unlock the Chiefs offense in a way that we haven't seen so far. It already feels like it's trending in the right direction.
24:02
And in my opinion, guys, Rashee Rice is probably somewhere in that, like, six to 10 range as far as wide receivers in the NFL. I think he's that good. I think he's gonna hit the ground running.
24:11
All the reports out of KC this week are that they wanna get him heavily involved right away. I, I just don't see the Raiders defense keeping up here.
24:18
You know, they, they played the Chargers relatively tough early in the season. They got that weird win over New England in week one.
24:24
But when they've run into quality teams, you know, they got smacked around by Washington with Marcus Mariota. They lost to the Colts 40 to six.
24:31
I, I don't know if it's gonna be that big of a beat down, guys, but I am comfortable laying a big number with the Chiefs at home. All right. Nick on the NBA. He's done a whole bunch of NBA work.
24:39
He will vomit it out on the other side. Next on the Numbers Game with VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:54
Our NBA betting guide is out and ready for the taking. Look at that picture, Kelly. You got Steph, Luka, Ant, Jokic, KD, Shay. [clears throat] Beautiful artwork there. Looking good. Looking good.
25:06
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25:14
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25:28
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25:39
Nick Whelan, kind enough to join us for a second segment. Uh, Nick, uh, joins us now courtesy of Progressive Guest Line once again.
25:45
Now, when I said he's gonna vomit out some NBA stuff, the reason I say it that way is because Nick has been doing hours and hours, tens of hours of NBA stuff all off season.
25:55
Uh, where can people find some of your other NBA work, Nick? Yeah, you can find everything, of course, over at rotowire.com.
26:03
Uh, starting up on, on opening night on Tuesday, I'll be hosting an NBA gambling show each night, 6:00 to 6:30 PM Central over on SiriusXM NBA Radio, myself- Love it... and my comrade, Alex Barutha.
26:16
So you could catch a lot of our, our work there. And, uh, of course over on SiriusXM Fantasy as well, 11:00 to 1:00. Uh, 11:00 AM to 1:00 PM Central, that is, Monday through Thursday. All right. Let's...
26:28
That's very exciting. Comrade, interesting. Okay, let's start with the futures bets. Before we get to your season win totals, let's talk about to win the entire NBA- Mm... the, uh, the title market, where is the value?
26:39
What are you doing? Yeah, it, traditionally there's not a ton of, like, true value when you're looking at, you know, long shots to, to win the NBA finals.
26:47
You very rarely see a team that's longer than, you know, 15 to 1 or so end up winning the championship. So I- I think you, you don't wanna be firing away on, on too many long shots here.
26:57
But a team that I really like is the Denver Nuggets, and I, I think that's become kind of the consensus pivot if you don't wanna bet OKC, which I don't really want to this season.
27:05
So Denver to win the finals, somewhere between 6 to 1, 8 to 1, depending on where you look.
27:10
I, I get the sense that this, this Nuggets team, you know, feels a lot better about its roster this year than it has the last two seasons.
27:17
They, of course, win the title a few years ago, and, you know, ownership starts pinching pennies. They, they part ways with a lot of the ancillary pieces that I, I think helped Denver get to the top of the mountain.
27:27
The big thing for me is the, the Michael Porter Jr.-Cam Johnson swap. I, I think that is such a perfect fit for Denver. I, I think Michael Porter Jr.
27:35
in a lot of ways had kinda run his course, uh, with the Denver Nuggets. He's had a very interesting summer, if you followed that.
27:41
And to me, Cam Johnson might just be a better straight-up player at this point, and I, I think he's a lot better, uh, of a complement to, to what Denver wants to do, a guy who's more than happy to slide in as a third/fourth option.
27:51
He's an excellent spot-up shooter. He's really just as good, if not better of a shooter a- as Michael Porter Jr., and I think just kinda fits what Denver wants to do a, a little bit more.
28:01
You know, they beefed up the bench a little bit. Some of these guys that they've drafted over the last two or three years gained some experience last season. You know, Christian Braun continues to get better and better.
28:09
You got more shooting with Tim Hardaway Jr. They went and grabbed Bruce Brown, who of course was a big piece on that title team.
28:15
And, you know, Bruce Brown is Bruce Brown, but I think he's more valuable to the Denver Nuggets than he is any other team.
28:20
So I, I get the sense that, that the Nuggets really, really like the direction that they're trending.
28:25
I, I still think OKC probably wins more games in the regular season, but I, right now, I, I think that is a, a neck-and-neck type of series, much like it was this past year.
28:35
And Denver improved, whereas, you know, OKC, they'll have some internal growth with some of those young players. But right now, straight up, if that's the Western Conference finals, I'm with Denver.
28:42
I think, uh, great breakdown by Nick. Uh, this is one I completely agree with. Gil probably will.
28:48
I, I get a little hesitant, Nick, adding too much of this stuff preseason, 'cause we always think there's times in season where you might be able to grab a little better number. Yeah.
28:55
I'll probably grab a little bit of Nuggets, uh, too, as we enter the season. Gil, I think it's pretty simple. Best player in the NBA, and you can make the argument this is the best team he's ever had around him.
29:05
Speaking of the- Yep... debate of who the best player in the NBA is, uh, for the Western Conference, you went a little different direction.
29:12
Now, people, there's gonna be some people, "Wait a minute, you just said the Nuggets were gonna win the, the whole thing." Uh, this is all about betting value. You, you went with the Clippers at 15 to 1 to win the West.
29:21
Yeah. I mean, of course I, I like Denver to win the West, but I think numbers-wise, 15 to 1 is a pretty friendly number for a really, really talented LA Clippers team.
29:29
And, you know, betting the Clippers is going to come with a, a number of caveats. You know, you're depending on Kawhi Leonard to stay healthy, which is extremely dubious.
29:37
You're depending on James Harden to play well over the course of two months in the playoffs, maybe even more dubious than Kawhi staying healthy. So there's a reason that this is 15 to 1.
29:46
It's an older roster, but it's a roster that I really like on paper. They went out and, and beefed up that bench. They're maybe the deepest team when everyone is healthy in the NBA right now.
29:54
Bring in Brook Lopez to back up Ivica Zubac. I thought they just stole John Collins away from the Utah Jazz, a guy who I think has become pretty underrated.
30:02
He's had some injuries, but now that he has the Utah Jazz stink off of him, I think this could be kind of a reminder season that John Collins is a very good, very versatile player who I think they're gonna use in a number of ways, kinda gives them some Kawhi Leonard insurance.
30:15
And then, of course, you bring back Chris Paul, who, you know, he's almost 40 years old at this point, but still giving you quality minutes off the bench. They're not gonna ask a ton out of him.
30:23
Again, Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Bradley Beal, a lot of things could go wrong here. Um, it- it's unlikely to me that the [laughs] LA Clippers are in the NBA finals.
30:31
But when I was looking at the numbers, I'm like 15 to 1, like if, if this hits, this team could be really, really good. And, you know, they won 50 games a year ago. Kawhi Leonard didn't make his debut until January 4th.
30:41
You know, at some point he's going to miss time. Maybe he misses back-to-backs as he has for the most part over the last five or six years.
30:47
I think they'll be careful with him during the regular season, but he's as healthy as he's been heading into a season in a long time All right, and then the Southwest division, you have the San Antonio Spurs.
30:57
Victor Wembanyama. What was that report we saw yesterday, that he might be 7'7" now? That he's growing still? Oh, this was... Yeah, I caught, I caught- Yeah... Boban on NBA Live talking about this.
31:05
So there, there was, there was a lot that came out when the f- when camps opened up. He got listed at 7'5", which everybody took note of- Yeah... 'cause it was up an inch from last year.
31:13
And Boban on NBA Live, NBA Today, NBA Today, uh, said that he's 7'4", st- has stood next to Wemby recently, and he is much larger. He put him at 7'7". Good God. You got the Spurs to win the Southwest, plus 450. I do.
31:28
I do. And it's not necessarily because Victor Wembanyama might be 7'7", but that, that doesn't hurt the case by any means. I, I think this is another value play here, plus 450.
31:35
Like, everybody's just assuming, you know, the Houston Rockets are going to hit the ground running, and they'll, they'll take this division.
31:40
You do have the Mavericks, you got the Grizzlies, the Pelicans that you somewhat have to worry about. I think Dallas, of those teams, is probably the biggest threat.
31:47
But to me it's, it's Rockets versus Spurs, and a bet on the Rockets right now is betting on Kevin Durant to stay healthy. Uh, he just turned 37 a couple of weeks ago.
31:56
Last year was his second healthiest season since 2018, and he still missed 20 games. I mean, you could basically pencil him in for 15 to 30 absences.
32:04
Uh, that's been the case really since the Achilles injury at the end of his time in Golden State. And, you know, Fred VanVleet is out for the year.
32:11
The Rockets are extremely limited as far as what they can add to this roster, as far as what they can do in season.
32:17
So, you know, to me, this is just kind of a hedge against, what if Houston's not as good as we think they're going to be? What if Kevin Durant misses 30 games at some point?
32:24
And obviously the Spurs have the talent to take a big step forward as long as Victor Wembanyama stays healthy. So Spurs to win the division at close to five to one, to me, uh, something I was happy to put in. All right.
32:33
We got four win totals. I'm gonna put you on the shot clock here. We're gonna have 30 seconds on each. Okay. Uh, and I'll let you have at it. Go. The Miami Heat, over 36 and a half.
32:45
Just a disrespectful number to me for, for Erik Spoelstra. Miami has not gone under this number since the final year before it hired Erik Spoelstra.
32:52
That was the, the year that they had bottomed out and drafted Michael Beasley. Uh, 37 wins to me is just such a low bar in, in what should be a weakened Eastern, East- Eastern Conference, excuse me.
33:02
I also don't mind Miami plus 150 to make the postseason. That might be the better value here. There aren't that many for sure playoff teams to me in the East.
33:10
So even with Hero missing some time to begin the year, I'm over on Miami. Dubs, the Warriors, under 47 and a half. Talk about disrespectful, Nick, but I'll let you go ahead with it. I know. I know.
33:21
May- maybe it's the, it's the LeBron guy in me here, but I just... Uh, you're depending a lot on a really, really aging core in Golden State. I mean, Golden State, you know, they start the season 13 and 4 last year.
33:32
They went on that big run after Jimmy Butler arrived. But you got Curry, you got Butler, you got Draymond, all in their mid to late 30s.
33:38
Jimmy Butler hasn't played more than 65 games in the regular season in almost a full decade. Are you willing to bet that you're getting a third straight 70 plus game season out of Stephen Curry? I'm not sure that I am.
33:49
And outside of that, uh, who do they add to this roster? You know, Al Horford is your big splashy addition.
33:53
You know, I, I guess you, you finally work things out with Jonathan Kuminga, whose own coach, like, openly hates him and doesn't want to play him. So weird. I, I, I think this is an under for me.
34:02
I, I don't think Curry plays 70 games, and if you want to get a little bit splashy, guys, Warriors plus 245 to miss the postseason. Yeah, I can't say I disagree with any of that. Except- I will, I will go there.
34:11
They're, they're the sa- it's the same handicap as I have as for the Lakers. I like the Lakers under, Nick, for the sa- Sure... the, these teams have one goal.
34:18
It's make it to the playoffs and let's let our stars and, and vet- vets take over. Then regular season just doesn't matter as much. Steph gonna be 38 in March. It's amazing. All right. Yeah. Pistons over 46 and a half.
34:30
Yeah, this team won 44 a year ago, guys. After starting the season 11 and 17, they were 14 and 18 through 32 games, finished 30 and 20 over the final 50. So we're looking at, like, a 49, 50 win pace over that stretch.
34:43
Only got 30 games out of Jaden Ivey, and, you know, I think part of the reason that I like the over on Detroit is I, I think this is a team that's ripe to make an in-season move. Maybe you put Jaden Ivey on the table.
34:53
You, you try to upgrade in the front court. Somebody like Lauri Markkanen I, I think would make a ton of sense for the Detroit Pistons.
34:59
You know, they did lose some key pieces in Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr., but replaced them well, bringing in Caris LeVert, Duncan Robinson. The lack of front court depth, to me, that's the big hole for Detroit.
35:09
But again, I think they could address that in season. And Hornets over 25 and a half. You needn't say anything. Everybody on this show is an over on the Hornets. Just stay healthy. Every which way. Healthy-ish. Yeah.
35:19
Consensus, uh- Yes, that's all we ask... bullishness on the Hornets. Nick, thank you so much, man. Appreciate it. Anytime, guys. Thank you. Warren Sharp on the NFL on the other side.
35:29
It's a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music] The numbers told the story, they always do. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics.
35:44
This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number three of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, and of course, SiriusXM channel 158.
35:55
It's Gil Alexander. That right there is Kelly Midland. Heyyo. Heyyo. Still to come this hour, uh, Nick, uh, not Nick, but, uh, Warren Sharp will join us here momentarily, as will Todd Wischnev. Looking forward to that.
36:08
And, uh, we're gonna lo- we're gonna take a look at some of these, uh, NBA awards markets. Kelly's got some thoughts on those coming up.
36:15
Um, not just MVP, but also, uh, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved, um, Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year. Oh, that's always our favorite one. I already made a bet on that one. On Sixth Man?
36:25
Which is a little odd for me, yeah. Coach of the Year, and then the always beloved Clutch Player of the Year. Oh, geez. We'll have to define that one again, uh, using their actual verbatim language on that.
36:35
Um, real quick, we get tweets at Beating The Book. Dell, Mind The Gap Radio, talking about the Nick Whalen segment. He says, "One of the best and informative segments I've heard ever on VSiN." Wow. Larry Fresh.
36:45
I mean, Nick's awesome. We've been having him on the show for about six years, but- Yeah, yeah. Larry Fresh, "Please play Brown Sugar for Dr. Bob and see if he thinks it's a love song to a woman." R- [laughs]
36:55
RIP, Denzel. Kelly, you ever... Yeah. [laughs]You ever been so in love you haven't felt your face? I'm not sure what that's that song about, Bob. No, he goes, "I'm pretty sure it is." John Balducci. That's great.
37:06
Here we go. First lawsuit filed in Ohio to allow top recruits still in high school but signed with the Buckeyes to get an NIL deal. I'm gonna sue New York for not allowing my son to get a deal.
37:15
I mean, he's a solid D tackle on my fourth and fifth grade squad. Oh, boy. Yep, here come the lawsuits. The tentacles of such developments we can never anticipate. High school money, that sounds like a nightmare. Yeah.
37:27
That's not good. Uh, all right, ladies and gentlemen, uh, he joins us now, and he does so each and every Wednesday at the top of this hour to discuss all of his unique thoughts on the NFL.
37:36
Warren Sharp can be found @SharpFootball on Twitter, sharpfootball.com, sharp.football. He's all over the place. Courtesy of the Progressive guest line, it's Warren Sharp, everybody. How you doing, Warren?
37:48
I'm doing good. Uh, just digging into the upcoming week, looking back at where we have come from, both last week as well as earlier on in the season. So I've got some interesting things we can chat about here.
37:59
You sure do. This is a, uh, this is a graphic we're gonna put up. Now, it's gonna be tough for some people to see 'cause it's, it's pretty, uh, it's pretty detailed, and so some of the logos are gonna be small.
38:08
But Warren, could you explain to us what we're looking at here?
38:13
Yeah, so this is strength of schedule, and it's looking at the logos and the teams are sorted top to bottom based upon the easiest schedule to the hardest schedule for the rest of the season.
38:25
So from week seven onward, the easiest schedule, the New England Patriots. Second easiest, the Cleveland Browns. Third easiest, New York Jets.
38:34
The hardest schedules to the end of the season are going to be, the Minnesota Vikings have the hardest, the New York Giants have the second hardest, and the Philadelphia Eagles the third hardest.
38:43
So those teams are at the bottom. And the yellow, sort of orange-ish, uh, grayed out logos, that's what teams did so far this season. So three, through weeks, uh, six, one to six, is the shaded logo.
38:56
So for example, if you're looking at the very bottom of the screen, the Minnesota Vikings have played the number one easiest schedule weeks one to six, and are going to the rest of the season play the number one most difficult schedule- Wow...
39:08
the rest of the way. So that's one, uh, team that obviously stands out to discuss from this graphic.
39:14
But, um, if you need to look at this a little bit more detail, I tweeted it out on my, uh, Twitter handle, and we'll be talking about this throughout the coming weeks, Gil.
39:23
I know you love digging into strength of schedule as much as I do and cha- uh, chatting about it, talking about rest and schedule and things of that nature that maybe not as many people are discussing.
39:33
And I do think it provides an advantage, uh, both in the futures market, but also in, like, a week-to-week basis looking at some of these things.
39:40
And, um, so there's a few things that, uh, obviously stand out as it relates to this strength of schedule graphic.
39:45
And you have, if I'm reading this correctly, you have the Falcons playing the hardest remaining schedule moving forward. Is that correct? Am I looking at that right? The Vi-
39:55
no, the Vikings- Oh, the, the Vi- oh, the Vikings do. I'm sorry... uh, play the hardest strength of schedule. Yes. The Falcons have played. The Falcons have played... Yes. I gotcha.
40:02
The Falcons have played the number one most difficult schedule in the NFL- That's right... through the first six weeks, and are now going to be playing about a league average schedule.
40:10
So if you wanna look at who's played the toughest schedule, it's not as intuitive, but let's look to the logos that are off to the right. The Atlanta Falcons have played the most difficult schedule.
40:20
The, uh, Chicago Bears, second most difficult schedule. The Baltimore Ravens, the Miami Dolphins, and the, uh, Philadelphia Eagles, those are the teams with the five most difficult schedules so far on the season.
40:33
And obviously all of them are going to play easier schedules than that with the lone exception of the Philadelphia Eagles. The Philadelphia Eagles will still be playing one of the most difficult schedules- Huh...
40:43
in the NFL to the end of the season. So- That's interesting... and things aren't going to get any easier for that team and, and that offense and the adjustments that they obviously need to make.
40:52
They have a little bit of extra time given their embarrassing loss last Thursday to try to fix some things. But, uh, that's a team that definitely needs a better,
41:02
uh, objective, and we're gonna talk in a second, Gil, about the Detroit Lions. Like, the, the, the coaching of the Philadelphia Eagles, the game planning, the strategy for what this team needs to do, uh, must improve.
41:14
It's, it's embarrassing. They have too much talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball, to be floundering the way that they did against the New York Giants.
41:23
And it seemed to me that's a, a game sort of in the d- short memory because it was last Thursday. They were pinballing back and forth between, "We're gonna try to run the ball.
41:32
No, we're gonna try to pass the ball," on, b- based on a series to series basis. It was like three straight passes, or they'd come out and run it twice and then pass it on third down.
41:41
And they didn't really have an exact objective and plan to attack the weaknesses of the New York Giants' defense, and that's obviously fundamental to how you come into games, is game plan for the weaknesses of your opponents and then try to attack that.
41:55
And if it's not working, then you pivot. But they just did not really seem like they had a, a clear cut objective.
42:01
And, and the term that, uh, not only you have used for this, but others have used, uh, is, is the assumption of rational coaching. Is that right?
42:08
When we are, we're approaching these games from a handicapping perspective, and sometimes the assumption is just what we always say about assuming, right? Yeah. [laughs] Exactly.
42:17
Uh, b- b- for both you and me, and me especially. When I'm looking at the Detroit Lions specifically, I did not understand... This to me was a failure by Jon Morton.
42:26
And this is easy in hindsight to look back on it, but this is how they need to evaluate themselves. And I think if they looked back at it with a very critical eye, they couldn't disagree too much with this analysis.
42:38
You know, the, the Kansas City Chiefs, we talked about it on your show I think last week, Gil. They were the number one, uh, difference between play action pass versus non-play action pass defensively. Yes.
42:50
They were a top five defense if you do not use play action, but they are the worst defense in the NFL to pass on when you do use play action.
42:57
And the Detroit Lions had the number one highest play action rate entering the season, e- uh, entering this game. And they used play action on just 29% of their early down passes, which ranked league average last week.
43:11
It was a below average number in general. And when they ran the ball, they... So on first down, that's when you should be looking to use play action. When they ran the ball on first down, though-
43:22
54% of their first downs in the game were runs. 77% of their first downs in the first half were runs. Those runs averaged negative EPA per rush and a 39% success rate.
43:33
But when they passed the ball, Gil, on those first downs instead, they were averaging plus.58 EPA, 91% success. Jared Goff was 11 for 11, averaging 11 yards per pass attempt.
43:45
So my thought is, when you're entering this game and you know that you...
43:50
Yes, you like to run the ball, you're one of the highest run rate teams in the NFL, but you're going up against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that is the worst in the NFL against play action.
43:59
You should be leaning more into some of these play action pass plays on early downs, specifically on first down, which might have success. They didn't build that into their game plan.
44:09
But as they're looking at their game plan and, and they're watching the game play out in real time, adjustments must be made to say, "Hey, we're having a ton of success passing the ball.
44:18
Jared Goff is 11 of 11 when he's passing the ball on first down. Why don't we lean a little bit more into this?" And they still, over the course of the entire game, were 54% run on first down for negative EPA.
44:29
So to me, from a game planning perspective before the game, there was a failure for us to believe that there was rational coaching displayed by John Morton, and then there was a lack of adjustments in game.
44:41
Why is this important to discuss right now? Well, two reasons. Number one, John Morton has to figure this out moving forward. There are a lot of big games for the Detroit Lions. This is not Ben Johnson there anymore.
44:52
We have to understand what we're getting out of John Morton.
44:54
John Morton has to figure out better ways to call games for the Detroit Lions against decent defenses, to attack weaknesses rather than just do what he wants to do.
45:03
But secondly, you know who he's going up against this week, Gil? The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Do you know what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank against play action passes? Number 31.
45:11
The Chiefs were number 32, the Bucs are number 31. They must ramp up their play action rate, take the failure from last week, learn from it, use a lot of play action this week.
45:22
Don't just sit back and run the football on first down, but use play action passes at a higher rate against this Bucs defense this week.
45:29
Real quick, Warren, in your last couple of minutes, can we go back to the strength of schedule?
45:32
Uh, because it begs the question, the s- schedule that the teams have had and now what they have moving forward, easy or hard. What's the biggest step up or step down in competition week seven, based on this graphic?
45:47
Well, week seven, I've isolated it based on offense and defense, um, specifically, but the defenses that, uh, certain offenses are gonna play, the Pittsburgh Steelers have a massive step down in class from a defensive perspective in week seven.
46:02
The Tennessee Titans actually from a passing perspective, although check the weather there, have a massive step down. I was surprised to see how bad the New England Patriots pass defense has been so far this season.
46:13
From a run defense, it's going to be the Pittsburgh Steelers, though.
46:16
Uh, just a, on Thursday night against the Cincinnati Bengals, massive opportunity for Jaylen Warren and the rest of their backs to have a lot of success.
46:24
The Steelers have played the eighth toughest schedule of run defenses so far on the year, Gil. Now they're going up against the fifth worst run defense this week.
46:31
In terms of a step up, the Dallas Cowboys have a massive step up.
46:35
The Washington Commanders run defense, though it didn't look that way on Thursday against DeAndre Swift, have one of the better run defenses in the league, and the Dallas Cowboys have gotten by playing the 19th toughest schedule of run defenses, so a much easier than average schedule there.
46:49
So there are a few of these that in future weeks we can maybe, uh, spend a couple minutes on and I can give you a new graphic each week- Yeah... that talks about some, some spots for that current week to be looking at.
47:00
I love that. That's where, that's where the gold is. Mm-hmm. Somewhere in there. That's beautiful, Warren. Thank you so much. Always interesting. Awesome stuff. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys.
47:09
Warren Sharp, everybody, @SharpFootball. Once again, that's, that's a fascinating little graphic, and you can find it on his Twitter, 'cause I know ours was very small, @SharpFootball. Todd Wishnick.
47:20
Now for something a little different. We won't get him purple. Maybe we'll get him a little different shape. Next on a Numbers Game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network. [upbeat music]
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