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Oct 17, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | October 17, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | October 17, 2024
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Transcript
0:00
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1:00
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. You're one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
1:10
It is a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. So many ways to take us in. You just gotta choose one of 'em. We appreciate it either way. It's Gil Alexander.
1:22
Or any other ways, I should say. Kelly Bittle alongside. What's happening, man? Not much. How you doing? I am good. The return of the crack man, Bill Krackomberger, on the show today. Pumped for it. Yeah.
1:31
Where was he last week? Oh yeah, he had to go to the East Coast. He had a thing. He was here two weeks ago, right? He was, correct. I don't know why it feels like a l- it's been a long time since we've seen Bill.
1:39
Well, 'cause you go behind the glass, and we never hear from you again when Bill's here. That's true. That's why. That's true. And then you just block out all memory of anything. Yeah, that's right.
1:47
That's exactly what happens. Yep. Exactly what happens. Uh, Zach in Crack, by the way, to be exact, Zach Cohen, will be here as well to talk, uh, football, NBA with us as well. Mm-hmm.
1:56
We gotta remember, we gotta, when Drew's here next week, we gotta talk NBA with him too. Well, I know he's been working on his numbers hard this week 'cause he's been sharing them around.
2:03
And, uh, Zach, all the chats are up and running again, Gil. Yeah. All of them are firing up. The old hardwood handicappers, the, uh, the Dinzik ones, all of them.
2:12
[laughs] Man, everybody's getting excited for the NBA season. The tennis chat is, uh, 365 days a year, and I- I pop in, like, once every six months. Oh, I'm the same way. Yeah.
2:20
And then there's always someone who's like, "Wait, you're in here? Oh, I gotta be on my best behavior." It's like, what am I, the school principal in here?
2:25
Yeah, I felt obliged this morning to do the, uh, to do the, "Hey, love to see the chat going again, fellas." [laughs] "Let's have a great season." Um, Kelly is obsessed with the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.
2:35
I think that's a fair characterization, isn't it? Well, it's become a story. Eh. It has become a story with the sports books, and- A little bit... I went down a rabbit hole yesterday, so. Okay. Yeah.
2:44
So you'll give us your full report. Yeah. A special numbers game investigation led by Kelly Bittle into the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award. We will, uh, do that.
2:53
Uh, first, last night, these, these, uh, this MLB postseason has gone from spectacular to kind of, uh, yeah- Yeah... snoozeville.
3:02
Uh, the Dodgers beat the Mets last night eight to nothing, in case you missed it, a game that, uh, was kind of over, uh, not, not super-duper early, but relatively early, and then, uh, Shohei put it out of reach a little bit later.
3:14
Uh, but eight to nothing, destruction. The Dodgers take a two to one lead in the best of seven NLCS.
3:19
Game four is tonight at Citi Field, um, in the Bronx, where, once again, uh, we talked about this yesterday, it's gonna be Yoshinobo, Yoshinobu, pardon me, Yoshinobu Yamamoto against José Quintana.
3:35
Um, and the Mets are a plus 114 dog, as they should be against Yamamoto.
3:40
Dodgers minus 135 favorites as the Dodgers try to take a three to one lead, and the Mets desperately trying to knot the best of seven up at two apiece. No play for me here.
3:51
Um, I have gone from early feel Wild Card round, early division series, to having no feel.
3:56
And again, with all the, uh, the World Series match-ups, I always ended it by saying, "Watch it be the Yankees and the Dodgers in the World Series," and it's looking that way, at least at this point.
4:05
Mets and Guardians still have something to say about that. Game three of the Yankees and the Guardians ALCS is this afternoon, so we got a double header. Guardians have got to get up their, uh, off the schneid.
4:16
This is the proverbial must-win situation. Mm-hmm. This is gonna be Schmidt, uh, going up against Boyd.
4:22
Boyd has gone four and two thirds and I think two innings respectively in both of his outings, both against the Tigers and the DS.
4:28
Uh, so there will be the, uh, the proverbial quick hook if, if, you know, sort of events dictate, if you will. Yankees are a minus 118 favorite here. Uh, that's the early game of the two, again, baseball double header.
4:40
And then there is football, sir. Yeah. I move on from baseball 'cause I don't really have a play on either of them, to be honest with you.
4:47
Um- Yeah, I, all I'll say is I've, if I've said it once, I've said it a million times, Gil, you never wanna see Clarke Schmidt in an elimination game, Gil.
4:54
I've, I've heard- Or, I'm sorry, in a big game three, not- Yeah... elimination game. That's, it's not an elimination game. That's right. Uh, you've said that maybe 50 times. Maybe. I, I can't even count. I've lost count.
5:03
I am starting to, uh, I'm trying to talk myself, and I'm getting there, into a play in the football game tonight, though. I, I, I've talked myself into one.
5:11
Okay, we, and Kelly and I did not talk about this before showing up- Yeah... and we both are, are, are sort of having this trajectory toward this game. I'm curious to see where you landed.
5:18
This is, of course, the, uh, the Broncos at the Saints tonight. The Saints will be without Derek Carr, though it should be noted that Derek Carr is actually listed on the injury report as doubtful.
5:28
Which is maybe, of all the dumb things I've heard this season, this might be the dumbest. Well- Because he's gonna be missing any reliable pass catcher, uh, that he's had on the outside.
5:39
Yeah, so in other words, we expected him not to be doubtful even, right? We expected him to be out. Just be out, yes. But for whatever reason, he's listed as doubtful. Spencer Rattler is expected to get the start.
5:48
And the Saints, as Kelly's alluding to, um, Carr expected to miss his second straight game. And then they are decimated.
5:54
Their offensive line could be without center Lucas Patrick, guard Cesar Ruiz, Eric McCoy, Shane Lemieux already on IR. Ruiz out. Ruiz is out officially out. He's already out, yeah.
6:04
And then of course the big ones, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed both out. Uh, Olave due to concussion. Shaheed might be gone for the year as far as we know. We don't know yet.
6:14
Uh, but basically their, uh, their wideouts are gonna be Mason Tipton, Bub Means, and Cedric Wilson. Tipton, Means, and Wilson on the outside. Yeah, none of those guys are on my fantasy team. No.
6:24
Those are gonna be your primary targets. Um, and then Rattler's gonna be facing one of the toughest defenses in the league in the Broncos, who will be without Patrick Surtain Jr.
6:32
Uh, he, he too with a concussion, with g- gonna be in concussion protocol here. But the Broncos have generated the second...
6:38
This is, by the way, shout out again, as we do every Thursday, to Sean Kerner over there at Action for providing some of these numbers.
6:43
Broncos have generated the second highest pressure rate in the league, and Rattler struggled big time under pressure last week with a minus 0.74 EPA, that's expected points added, per drop back.
6:56
He also took a sack on 28% of his drop backs last week, and that's one of those things that's kind of a sticky stat. We'll see if that one game is a reflection of things to come.
7:05
But any way you slice it, um, that doesn't stack up well for the New Orleans side of the ball. And remember with Shaheed also, he's not just one of your primary targets, he's also your, your return man. Right.
7:19
31 yards per kickoff return, ranking eighth in the NFL. 15.9 yards per punt return, which ranks fifth. And so you gotta think that the Saints' average, uh, starting position's gonna take a hit, a hit as well tonight.
7:30
That felt like the longest punt return celebration I'd ever seen in my life last week, uh, by him. Oh, I missed that. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. He w- I, I don't know.
7:38
I, I had it on mute, but I was like, "Is he still celebrating after this punt return?" [laughs] Like, he's a wide receiver. He gets the ball.
7:44
So you're probably thinking to yourself, "Oh, I see where you're going with this. You're gonna have, you're gonna make a play on the Broncos." Well, not so fast. Maybe.
7:51
With the Broncos now three point favorites and reduced juice, this is sort of up consensus from two and a half, though two and a halves are out there still.
7:58
Um, on the other side of the ball, so again, no Olave, no, no Shaheed, uh, including all those offensive linemen for the Saints.
8:06
But if you think about the Broncos side of things, so all nine, again, shout out to Sean Kerner at Action, all nine of the Broncos' offensive touchdowns this season have come in the red zone,
8:17
and the Saints are the second worst in the league in plays that have gone for 20 or more yards. Um, so we're talking about, so without Olave and Shaheed, obviously, so add that to the Saints ledger.
8:30
They, they rank second worst in the league in plays that have gone for 20 or more yards. Then go to the Broncos side.
8:35
Again, all nine of their offensive touchdowns have come in the red zone, so they're not a big play offense.
8:40
And the Saints defense ranks eighth in DVOA, Aaron Schatz's number, against the pass, but only 26th against the run. So what does that mean?
8:50
That means that the Broncos are gonna be like, "Well, you know, their weakness is kind of our thing anyway. Let's go to the ground game." So the Broncos will be all about that.
8:59
Now, they don't have starting center Luke Wattenberg. He had an ankle injury in week five, so he's on IR. He allowed four pressures on 199 pass blocking snaps this season.
9:10
His replacement, Alex Forsyth, has already allowed four on just 47 blocking snaps. And the Saints run defense, once again though, has struggled all season, allowing a league high 2.6 yards before contact.
9:22
So anyway, you put all this in the mix. I'm just trying to think of, you know, who have the Saints, who have they, pardon me, who have the, uh, the, uh, Saints given up yards to this year?
9:31
Last week alone, Bucky Irving, 14 for 81. Sean Tucker, 14 for 136. Kareem Hunt, the week before that, 27 for 102.
9:42
So you put it all in the mix and you're like, "All right, well, the Saints don't, don't play the run well." The Broncos have Javonte Williams.
9:50
They have McLaughlin, Jamil McLaughlin, Audra Guest-Eamon, and, and then Bo Nix is capable of tucking it under and running as well.
9:57
All of this, to me, again, with the total at 37 now, 37, 37 and a half, uh, still out there, but right now 37 appears to be the consensus. Is this more... Did you, did you lean w- as you were going through this?
10:10
'Cause I haven't... I'm sort of talking myself into an under, and I'm also sort of talking myself into a Broncos play, but I haven't quite gotten to either. Yeah. Um,
10:21
so the way I approached this, and I, to be honest, I don't think it was a game I, I thought about a whole lot- Me neither... this week, 'cause it was kind of an easy scratch off.
10:29
A lot of with o- uh, especially not knowing about some of the Saints injuries- We didn't know about them... till later in the week, right? That's right. You had to wait anyways.
10:36
I think e- especially, and this is just kind of the, uh, you know, icing on top, like Taysom Hill gonna be not really returning tonight. Mm-hmm. Looks like he's gonna be out as well. Listed as doubtful right now. Um,
10:49
total feels high. It feels high. In a game with- As low as 37 is- Is w-... it still feels high. It feels high. Yes. With how good the Bronco...
10:56
Everything you just laid out, how good the Broncos defense has been, uh, how little trust I have in their offense, and then go over to the Saints side of the ball, where I don't know how high of expectations you can have for this offense and Spencer Rattler tonight.
11:09
So I debated how to play this. Ended up landing on team total under 17 and a half for the Saints. Uh, that felt high. I thought it was gonna be on the other side of 17. So that's the way that I attacked it.
11:21
Um, I think Rattler over rushing props interest me as well, but I don't know that I'm gonna get there. Just rookie quarterback, second game, short week, no wide receivers he's used to.
11:32
I could see him tucking and running the ball a fair amount tonight. It does. I'm with you, though.
11:36
It does feel like 37 is a whole bunch when the Saints are hampered as much as they are, and then the Broncos offense will be incentivized to f- to go against the Saints' defensive weakness, which is against the r- which is against the run, not against the pass.
11:51
Yeah. And then, you know, and the Broncos are sort of, you know, personnel-wise, they're set up for that. So yeah. Um-
11:59
By the way, what part of your, of your model did you put the Sean Payton revenge spot into it as well? Oh, I, I was just gonna bring up, I do- I, I like the under and I like the Saints team total under. I'm not...
12:10
I w- I'd be lying if I said that didn't play into- 'Cause-... the, the potential of the Broncos wanting to run it up on the Saints or something like that. If they, if they get a chance. Yeah, if they get a chance.
12:18
That, that is why I bring it up. That's what gives me just a little bit of pause. I'm glad you asked that- Yeah... 'cause it, that is re- it, it's definitely a part of the reason I went t- uh, team total on this.
12:27
The old, uh, Matt Brown revenge spot. He loves those. Revenge spot, yeah. [laughs] He loves those. Um, all right, that's the game tonight. It's pretty interesting.
12:35
Uh, and if those baseball games get out of hand, particularly the one that is concurrent with this one, then well,
12:41
could be something you think about betting here that you might not otherwise have, the old standalone Thursday night. Zach Cohen, his thoughts on tennis and football and beyond next.
12:58
A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Basketball season ready to tip off, and the VSiN experts have been hard at work tracking the latest player moves to help you bet smarter.
13:08
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13:12
Get our all-new NBA betting guide that features previews and power ratings on all 30 teams, best bets and futures from the VSiN experts, player prop and live betting strategies, plus senior NBA analyst JVT, he was kind enough to be on the show yesterday, favorite title bets.
13:25
That's favorite title bets from him. Get yourself an edge this season.
13:28
Get your NBA betting guide from VSiN, along with access to all of our valuable betting tools across all sports, for just 9.99 for your first month at vsin.com/subscribe. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe.
13:39
If only we had, uh, some folks who are responsible for the, uh, for the NBA betting guide. Do have a bit of NBA news, and it applies to- Oh... the team that's on our graphic, and I don't like- Uh-oh... seeing this.
13:51
I don't know if our upcoming guest does either, but, uh, Isaiah Hartenstein suffered a...
13:55
G- Gil will help explain what this injury is, suffered a small non-displaced fracture in his left hand and will be reevaluated in five to six weeks. Did you think I went to medical school or something?
14:05
Yeah, what does that mean? I have no idea what that means. Say it again. A small dis- Small non-displaced fracture. I would imagine that the, that the fracture- [laughs]...
14:13
does not involve one part of that fracture, like, going off the, the main place where it's supposed to be kind of thing. Ah, placed. Got it. That's my guess. [laughs] How was that for a, for a medical...
14:25
New England School of, uh, Journalism. New England, uh, School of... What is the, uh, New England Journal of, uh- Medicine?... whatever, of Medicine- Medicine... is, is listening closely- Yeah, yeah...
14:32
to my explanation. Zach Cohen, largely responsible for the NBA betting guide, unless you don't think it's any good, then he says he's not responsible at all. Then it's JVT's fault. Yeah.
14:41
He joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. You can follow him on Twitter at BettingOnX. There he is. What's happening, Zach? Not much.
14:47
Yeah, that injury was a bit of a bummer to wake up to, but I do think that the Thunder will be just fine. It helps that they obviously didn't have him last season. You know, they added him as a luxury.
14:56
It's not something that they really needed right now for the regular season. So I do think that they are still a threat to go over their win total. I don't think you're out of that yet, Kelly. All right. Good.
15:04
Uh, you don't have to give away everything you wrote about in the NBA betting guide. We want people to actually go out and get it, but could you, uh, could you let us know a couple of your season wins here?
15:14
Yeah, I mean, one of the ones that I really like is the Raptors to go over 29 and a half wins. Uh, it's one that is going to be a little bit tough to follow.
15:22
I know a lot of, you know, there's not a lot of publicity up north in the NBA, and I think that there's, you know, players that have flown under the radar that have played in Canada before, with one of them now being Scottie Barnes, who I believe is a top 15 to 20 player in the NBA.
15:33
But this is a team that will outwardly say that they are trying to rebuild right now, but everything that they are doing suggests the opposite.
15:40
Last year when they traded OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks, they got RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley in return.
15:46
They could have gone out and gotten more first-round picks, but instead they got players firmly in their primes. They also gave up draft capital to get Jakob Poeltl, one of the better rim protectors in the NBA.
15:55
This is a team now that has a foursome of Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Jakob Poeltl, that last year when they played together outscored opponents by about 10 points per 100 possessions in a really small sample size, but a meaningful amount of time that, you know, makes a lot of sense when you look at what they have on the court.
16:14
Those are players that fit together very nicely.
16:17
And really, with the Raptors, I think that all you really need is a guy like Grady Dick to step up and be a, a consistent presence in that starting lineup, or, you know, maybe Davion Mitchell, who they got from the Sacramento Kings, or Jacobi Walter, the rookie that they drafted in the first round of last year's draft.
16:32
If they get consistent production out of any of those three, it's a team that suddenly has a really solid starting five.
16:37
Uh, a head coach that I really like in Darko Rajakovic, who had a really rough first year but is viewed as one of the better offensive coaches in the NBA.
16:45
And it's just a really low win total for a team that has kind of consistently produced.
16:49
You know, over the last 10 to 12 years, they've gone over that win total more often than not, and I just think that they can say they wanna lose, but they can lose without do, you know, doing it in a really bad way.
16:59
So I think they're gonna win 30 or more games this year. We also like it when there's a match between some of our experts. JVT was on yesterday. Uh, he liked the, uh, I believe it was the under on the Denver Nuggets.
17:10
You do, too. Yeah, I, I dealt with a little bit of juice there to go under 52 and a half wins, but I just think it's a team that really downplayed the importance of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and maybe they didn't.
17:21
Maybe they just didn't think that they can go into the second apron with this team. But Caldwell-Pope was their best catch-and-shoot shooter. It's a team that was already 25th in the league in three-point makes per game.
17:31
Also, their best wing defender, you know, guard defender on a team that was top 10 in the league in defensive ratings.
17:37
So losing a player like that isn't going to help anybody, especially when you have a guy like Jamal Murray who has really, really struggled now for the last year or so, uh, looked terrible in last year's playoffs limping through a calf injury, then went over and played for Team Canada where he was completely invisible for a team that really needed him, a team that went into that tournament with expectations.
17:58
People thought Canada was going to potentially win the gold. Murray wasn't able to help at all. Uh, he's off to a really slow start in the preseason.
18:05
I mentioned to Kelly and JVT over text, like, I think Jamal Murray really should have sat out the summer to get himself healthy, but now they, you know, they've paid him money, uh, big money, and I don't really think that they can count on him for nightly production.
18:17
I don't think Russell Westbrook [laughs] is the answer to all their problems.
18:21
I actually do think that Westbrook will do a lot for them off the bench because they can use a guy that can kinda carry the team on nights where either Jokic doesn't play or Jokic is in foul trouble or something.
18:30
But I don't think that this is a good enough team right now to win 53 games and, you know, earn home court advantage in the Western Conference. Maybe they will turn it on in the playoffs.
18:39
They're gonna have the best player on the floor in any series that they play, but not gonna be as good of a regular season team as we've seen in the past. I'm holding you to your finals prediction right now.
18:48
Who's in the NBA finals, Zach? I, I'll still go with the Celtics, and I, I'll say the Thunder Okay. That's what I figured, but just wanted to get it on record. Yeah.
18:57
Before we get your, uh, college football plays, can we talk Heisman for a second? Because you've been all over the Heisman sort of tracker week to week. Right now, Ashton Gentry from Boise State is your short shot.
19:07
He's, uh, about plus 210 I believe it is at DraftKings. Yes, exactly, plus 210. Dillon Gabriel from Oregon at plus 320, and then there's Travis Hunter at plus 550.
19:16
Cam Ward the only other, uh, person in single-digit odds at, uh, plus 650. Travis Hunter sort of stumping right now for his, uh, Heisman candidacy.
19:23
Took a little bit of a shot at Ashton Gentry, [laughs] uh, overnight, where he's sort of like, "Hey, give me all those touches. Watch how many yards I get."
19:31
Um, not quite the same thing, Travis, when you're catching the football versus, uh, versus running it. But what is your sort of take right now if somebody's landing on this right now?
19:40
Uh, I think if I had to make a play right now, I'd honestly go with Milroe again. I just think that the numbers come up a lot.
19:46
Uh, Alabama's obviously looked really bad the last couple of weeks, but they have an opportunity this week, you know, to go out and beat Tennessee, and that's a game that I do think the Crimson Tide will win.
19:55
If they win that game, I think Milroe will be right back at the top of the conversation. I still think this will be an award that Dillon Gabriel ends up winning. That was my pick, you know, before the season.
20:05
Uh, all throughout the year in the column I've been writing weekly, I've been saying that that Gabriel game against Ohio State is the one that we really need to wait for.
20:12
If he wins that game, he's probably gonna jump to the top of the odds board. Not only did he win it, he played his best game of the season in that one.
20:18
So I think that he's probably in the pole position even though Ashton Gentry is the betting favorite.
20:22
I just kind of think that when push comes to shove at the end of the year, they're going to prefer to give it to a quarterback in a major conference over, you know, Gentry, a running back on a team that already has a loss and really needs to win out in order to make the college football playoff.
20:35
So I, I think that Gabriel's gonna win it, but I think the best bet remaining is Milroe because I think that he's gonna be the one that moves up the most with a big win in the next couple weeks.
20:43
Yeah, Milroe 12, 12 to 1, the, uh, the next person or the next, uh, sort of candidate after the group that I just gave. So Milroe right now, 12 to 1. Always shop around for these. Let's go to college football games.
20:54
LSU and Arkansas, five and one LSU, four and two Arkansas with SEC implications. LSU is a two and a half point road favorite. What you got? Uh, I have LSU in this game.
21:04
I, I was a little surprised to see that the line was so short. Makes me a little bit nervous, but I just kind of think that the Tigers are a little bit better on both sides of the ball.
21:12
I know that the EPA per play would give Arkansas a small edge on the defensive side, but I think that LSU over the last three weeks has really turned things up on defense.
21:21
And I think that they looked really good last week in a win over Ole Miss, kind of coming up with big stops and key moments. There was definitely some, you know, big long drives by the Ole Miss offense.
21:30
Jaxson Dart was able to move the ball, but LSU kind of came up big when they needed to.
21:34
And really what it comes down to with this game is that I just think that LSU at the quarterback position is much better shape with Garrett Nussmeier, who I think is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and maybe [laughs] the, you know, sleeping giant to be the top quarterback selected in the NFL draft.
21:49
When I watch him, I think that I see a future pro and a good one. So I, I think that LSU's quarterback play is a little more trustworthy.
21:56
And while this game is at Arc- at Razorback Stadium, LSU has had a lot of success there over the years. And yeah, ha- they've, uh, wo- they haven't lost there I believe since 2014.
22:05
So i- it's a tough place to play, but they've done it before. And I also just trust Brian Kelly in these types of games. He's a coach that tends to win the ones he's supposed to and loses, you know, the big ones.
22:15
Traditional Big Ten rivalry, Zach. Rutgers, Sunge, State University of New Jersey, copyright Chris Falica. Four and a half point favorites at home against struggling one and five UCLA.
22:27
Uh, I'm laying the four and a half with Rutgers, uh, doing it really with no issues whatsoever. I think UCLA has been one of the worst Power Four teams in the country this year.
22:36
Uh, if they were going to win a game last week, they had a really good opportunity to do it against Minnesota at the Rose Bowl.
22:41
Now they have to fly across the country to play at Rutgers against a team that is just a lot tougher in the trenches.
22:48
Uh, I think that Rutgers has obviously two losses in a row with the one against Wisconsin being a little alarming, but this is a really big step up in competition for UCLA, and I think Greg Schiano is a much better coach than Foster.
23:00
So I think this is a game that Rutgers is gonna win pretty easily. Bonus play, 20 seconds or less. What's the third one? Uh, I don't wanna give all of them away, but I will, I will give it out.
23:09
I'll say, uh, Louisville plus four and a half is a play for me against Miami with, uh, Miami is coming off a bye week.
23:15
That's about the only thing that really scares me in that matchup, but this is a team that has really struggled against, you know, a step up in competition.
23:21
They started off the year 4-0, 3-1 against the spread, but since then it was the close, uh, win against Virginia Tech that I think they should've lost. Uh, the, the comeback win against Cal on the road.
23:32
This is going to be the best team that they have faced all season.
23:35
Uh, Louisville is a lot better than its record, and I think Jeff Brohm's a really good coach, has a solid quarterback, and a good running game to lean on. Zach Cohen, everybody, betting on X. Thank you, Zach.
23:44
Senior writer here at VSiN. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Remember, NBA betting guide, vsin.com/subscribe. Comeback Player of the Year in the NFL next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
24:01
Don't forget to put the VSiN experts to work for you this football season. Start betting smarter with a VSiN Pro subscription. Sign up for, uh, for a VSiN Pro annual subscription today.
24:10
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24:17
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24:25
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24:37
That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Thought I jumped in early. No, no, it's my bad. Totally my fault. We get tweets beating the book. Always appreciate the, uh, feedback.
24:47
CJ @RecLeagueMVP23, Sarah Cito Keep up the great work, sir. Much appreciated. Uh, yeah, last night, uh, we hit a plus 280 dog- Oh, okay... in tennis, uh, Sarah Saito.
25:00
And this is, you know, hitting the big dogs on the lady side, and the men's side on the, uh, in, indoor hards has not gone nearly as well. So I have, I'm comp- I completely just said, "You know what?
25:11
I'm putting the indoor hard courts aside. Why am I even bothering with it?" Um, we get close, but we don't get over the hump with those. Um, those haven't been big dogs necessarily in, in that case.
25:21
Um, but on the lady side in, uh, still in Asia on the, on the outdoor hard court, Sarah Saito plus 280 last night, um, was an awesome win, so glad you were on that Rec League MVP 23.
25:31
Jason Ice Cold Gambler, "Crack is back." He's very excited. That's right. He's very excited he has an acronym. See, and then Joe V2 says, "I love your tennis picks, Gil.
25:39
Unfortunately, they aren't posted on the website early enough for the Saito 2:00 AM start." Well, as we just found out, Joe V2, apparently they are. Um, "You and Kelly are great." Thank you.
25:48
I think what you have to do, Joe, is you have to click on my name, right? So that's the, there's one extra sort of step that some people aren't taking- Yeah... on the vsin.com/picks page. Yeah.
25:59
I'm honestly more familiar, uh, from like the back end of our website, so it's hard- Yeah... to describe.
26:03
But yes, it will l- it, it does show up in timeline order as, as picks get, uh, posted in there from whoever- Yeah... on the network. So- It was, it was there a few hours before- Okay... actually yesterday, yeah.
26:14
Mike Stacks, "I'm rolling the dice. I'm taking Denver in my survivor pool, and give me the Broncos in a contest play. I'm trusting Peyton all aboard."
26:22
Numbers Guy says, "Broncos at Saints, this feels like one of those games they wanna sucker us into a same game parlay, then it's just a question of which leg will beat us. Broncos minus two and a half.
26:30
Don't overthink it." Mikey Stacks survivor? Hey, man. I mean, we're, hey, we- [laughs]... we've been out for a while now- Hey, man... so I, I don't even know what my options would be, but ooh.
26:40
May- maybe Mike Stacks doesn't have any other options, but he's- Right... he's doing it. Bob C-137, "Such a crazy league.
26:46
Tell me anyone would've considered the Broncos giving points and/or the under in weeks one and two. Boy, have the Saints taken a huge [laughs] Easter blast in broad daylight, as it were."
26:54
That's a, uh, Todd Wishnevism right there. [laughs] Uh, It's Your Boy, Sansh, he says, "Bone is broken." Oh, talking about the displaced bone. He says, "Bone is broken, but hasn't shifted out of its normal position."
27:04
That's what I said. You nailed it, man. Good job. Nailed it. It's like your brother's a doctor or something. Uh, used to be.
27:10
[laughs] Brian M, "I feel like Thursday Night Football had broken the recent history of suckitude, then tonight is going to happen. Hopefully they'll be good again until Steelers Browns week 12.
27:18
That game will end six to two." Las Vegas 514, "Yo. Working with orthopedic doctors, I do x-rays, for many years, that was very good diagnosis. Good job, Dr. Alexander." There we go.
27:29
We knew we could count on the audience to back it up. Dr. Alexander, medicine man. [laughs] Uh, and then the last one, Jesse Welch, "Throw some pocket change on no touchdown scorer tonight.
27:38
Thursday games with bad offenses are a spot I like to try for. I went one in three last season, and I think the Broncos were involved in that winner. Usually posted at least at 50 to 1." How about that?
27:49
I, I mean- Not bad. Not a bad thought. I, I can't imagine that you're gonna get a better matchup, uh, all year that, uh, that could actually play out in. Yeah. Yeah. One, one last thing.
27:59
You brought this up, uh, about the Broncos and Saints after the, after our first segment. Yeah. Um, we're giving Adam Chernoff credit for this. I got... Yeah, yeah.
28:06
Cher- Chernoff brought it up early in the week, and he, he, he kinda called it the reverse Kendall Hinton game, if you remember from- Remember that?... the COVID year when- Yeah...
28:14
these two teams faced each other in Denver. Um, and remember the, what was, the whole quarterback room?
28:19
The whole quarterback room got sick, uh, [laughs] for the Broncos, so Hinton had to, the wide receiver had to go play quarterback. And it's, it, it feels like that for the Saints.
28:28
There's so many injuries on that offensive side of the ball, like we don't even know who this team is. Uh, Joe C by ad- by the way, ads about the, uh, vsin.com/picks page.
28:36
He says, "You have to click on tennis and then sort by date or by name, and you'll see it. If you just click on picks, it won't show up all the time." So just a little, uh, little note for the, uh, vsin.com/picks page.
28:47
Yes, that Kendall Hinton game was interesting because remember a lot of us were still alive in Survivor that year late, and so it was a very strategic Survivor play. Yeah.
28:55
And it was a bit of a risk 'cause you didn't really know what was gonna happen- [laughs] Right... at the deadline.
29:00
But it ends up being Kendall Hinton, who I think had thrown, who had completed one pass in, in his Wake Forest career, if I'm not mistaken, something like that. Yeah. No, I think you're right. I think you're right.
29:09
Something like that, yeah. Um, okay. Let's, uh, let's talk about this. Um, we had- Can I get to a couple golf bets real quick? Oh, yeah, I'm sorry. Please.
29:15
Yeah, the, you know, golf, the golf tournament out here actually in Vegas, Shriners, uh, uh, Children's Open here starting. It's just starting.
29:21
Um, we broke this down a little bit more on Long Shots yesterday if you did listen.
29:26
There, it, there is wind that appears that is gonna be a factor this afternoon, so I added actually some more bets, uh, on some of these early wave guys.
29:34
And then first round leaders, uh, did play all from the morning, uh, tee time. Some of these guys, I, I think one or two have teed off, but most of these first round markets you can get involved live in.
29:44
So I did make first round leader bets on Eric Cole 45 to 1, Seamus Power 45 to 1, Johnny Vegas, Vegas in Vegas, come on, 66 to 1, uh, and then Patrick Fishburn at 66 to 1 as well.
29:56
So just some lo- longer shots if you're looking for something to sweat this morning. Patrick Fishburn, any relation to Lawrence Fishburne? No? I don't think so, no. Okay.
30:03
Uh, we had Aaron's shots on before the Super Bowl last year. Remember, this was on the heels of, uh, the whole Comeback Player of the Year controversy. We didn't know at the time who was going to win it.
30:13
Um, but Aaron was letting us know as one of the 50 better, I mean, one of the 50 voters that voted on this kind of thing, um, that they were gonna change the rules 'cause they realized that this was gonna be perhaps a controversial thing.
30:25
Was it gonna be Damar Hamlin, who literally almost died on a football field and played, uh, sparsely last year, or was it going to go to somebody else?
30:33
And ultimately, of course, it went to someone else, and Aaron was right.
30:36
Shortly after he let us know the language was gonna change for Comeback Player of the Year, the AP Comeback Player of the Year, the NFL, uh, they changed the language to, "That award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.
30:54
The decision to provide this guidance was made last December, but could not be implemented for the 2023 awards because the season was almost completed."
31:02
That was the NFL's, that's from Rob Mahon, the AP senior NFL writer. That was the NFL's way of saying, uh, "Mea culpa- You're right, it probably should have been Jamar Hamlin.
31:11
Wish we had these l- wish we had this language in, in place back then. Yeah. So take us from there, sir. Well, y- we, we've been discussing this for what?
31:20
Going back a couple weeks now, three, three, four weeks even, and I'm not gonna say it's just- Before it blew up. Yeah, before it blew up. Yeah. And I'm not gonna say it's just us. Yeah.
31:28
People were aware, I think sh- at least sharper bettors were aware this was an award, uh, change that you needed to be aware of this season, and we were all shocked as the Vikings started to have success this year that Sam Darnold's odds continued to get shorter and shorter and shorter.
31:43
Now, I couldn't find the absolute latest that DraftKings had posted. Brandon Mendez, though, who ha- handles our graphics every morning, he fou- found this at least from October 4th.
31:52
But this is where the Comeback Player of the Year's odds were o- on October 4th, uh, so just, you know, two weeks ago pretty much, right? Rodgers +190.
32:00
Sam Darnold did pass him, though, because Rodgers ha- you know, had a couple clunkers after that. Darnold +275, and then obviously it was Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow, the rest.
32:09
We also had shots come back on the show- Mm-hmm... and say explicitly, "Do not bet on Sam Darnold." Yes. "He cannot win-" Yes... 'cause of this language.
32:16
And this got to a point where last week Darnold had become the favorite at some shops, and we brought it up.
32:23
Uh, I know other shows, other podcasts, a- and other, uh, people had written about it, about how can this possibly be happening with a guy that is not going to qualify for the award.
32:34
We saw then, like, Friday and over the weekend, a lot of the books decide to take down this market and kinda reset. Um, we were talking about it on Monday. Yes.
32:45
We could not find odds for this anywhere, and we ki- I missed it over the weekend. Like, I missed them, all these books taking it down apparently, but Monday we couldn't find odds anywhere.
32:53
We then found FanDuel had reposted, but they reposted without any odds for Sam Darnold, which the pro- which gets dicey with this award, Gil, is we think we have the guidelines, but can you trust 100%- No...
33:09
that the voters are gonna follow that? No, no, and this is the point. The, y- these 50 guys, or guys and girls, right, these 50 voters are going to do whatever it is they're going to do. Yes.
33:20
And it's not like the NFL can go in and change that up and say, "Uh-oh, sh- remember the guidelines." That's not gonna happen. Yes, correct. So- So he could still win.
33:31
Y- he could, he, he could still win if, if, if enough voters don't know what they're doing, pretty much. Yep. That's the way I would describe it. FanDuel has reposted Darnold in their odds. He is at 20 to 1.
33:41
I will say the same thing we've s- been saying for a month. You cannot make that bet, even at 20 to 1. Nope. I don't even know what, what I would say you could take a flyer on Sam Darnold, 500 to 1 maybe.
33:51
20 to 1 you can't. DraftKings has not reposted this market since they took it down. Have, have not reposted the market, or reposted it without Darnold? They have not reposted the market period. The market at all.
34:02
Which that is also something I personally have an issue with, because you cannot be sitting there taking Sam Darnold bets for months, weeks and weeks and weeks- Yeah...
34:12
and then not repost the market and let some, and let other people, you know, people get involved with other g- w- with other bets. It's very interesting, because- It's just a fascinating betting story, I think...
34:22
because for sports books who have tried as a marketing tool to give refunds, [upbeat music] if and when Sam Darnold doesn't win this, do they refund everybody's Sam Darnold money?
34:33
Uh, people have been asking that on Twitter as well, yes. I, I'm not a big refund guy. Like, I don't- No, me, me-...
34:38
I don't like gambling, but if you're the ones out there talking about how you're m- you know, what a benevolent sportsbook you are refunding, I'm just saying. It's a mess. Um, we'll come back.
34:47
Our larceny smooth bet of the week next.
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