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Oct 18, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | October 18, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | October 18, 2024
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34:16
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Transcript
0:00
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0:26
The numbers tell the story. They always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Friday morning to you.
0:35
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. Every taking is said, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. This is Kelly Bidlin in the hizzy. That's right.
0:48
How you doing, man? Doing great. Be really nice if, uh, Matt Brown didn't distract us, uh, before the show so much. Matt Brown showing no, uh, pre-show etiquette by leaving the studio at, uh, just moments ago. Yep.
0:58
Yeah, yeah, I'm pretty sure he's still walking out, yeah. [laughs] Uh, we're pumped 'cause it is a football Friday. Yeah. Can't wait. Uh, hour number two of the show, as always on Fridays, we are graced.
1:09
We really are graced. We are humbled with the presence of a trio of individuals, Chris Fallica from Fox Sports, talking college football with us, but, but more than just college, whatever he's betting on. Mm-hmm.
1:20
Uh, Steve Fezzik, only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest back in the day, with all his, uh, mashugana. He'll be in here as well. And then Dr. Bob, uh, in the cleanup spot.
1:31
I know it's only three, but it's a cleanup spot. He likes to be the anchor of the, uh, the whole thing. He says, "Gil, I should be last. That's what... They, they'll all wait in anticipation."
1:39
[laughs] And so there he is. He's scheduled for last. Gives us an opportunity to tease it all week, Gil, okay? All week long. That's what we do here. On Monday morning, we come in and we say, "Wait for 8:45 on Friday."
1:48
Guessing lines, schmessing lines. [laughs] Don't worry, Dr. Bob's coming on Friday.
1:53
We also got Paul Carr, the return of Paul Carr with Premier League picks, man moves the chains with his bets, and, uh, Jason Lingard from Under a Cloud of Smoke as well. We'll also do, uh, Are We Sure?
2:02
for week seven in the NFL. Love that segment, by the way. I know you've tried to- Are you sure? Uh, I am. I know you've tried to, uh, kill it with other, uh, knockoff versions of Are We Sure?
2:11
Like Thing or Not a Thing, or Hot or Not Hot, or whatever it is you, uh, you're doing over there. It's just, it's just segments, man. Are We Sure? Estamos seguros?
2:20
Uh, that's coming up for week seven in the National Football League. Um, so it's all packed. We're pumped, always on a Friday. Um, let us start with baseball yesterday.
2:30
Ooh, it got good again, at least in the American League it did. Game three of the American League Championship Series yesterday was drama. Mm-hmm. Man, was this awesome.
2:40
Uh, Guardians are up in this game three to one in the eighth,
2:45
uh, three to one in the eighth, and there's two down and nobody out for the Yankees, and Juan Soto gets on base with a walk, and the Guardians bring in their closer extraordinaire, Emmanuel Clase.
2:56
Now, I like to do sp- you know how people do splits on players? I will do splits on Clase with pre-tattoo on the neck, post neck tattoo.
3:05
[laughs] And ever since he's gotten that little thing on his neck, he hadn't been very good. When, when did that, that happen mid-season? No, like, like three weeks ago or something. Oh, wow.
3:13
Like, all of a sudden, he appeared with a, with a neck tattoo. Yeah, that's a bold choice end of season.
3:16
Anyway, Aaron Judge steps to the plate, two down in the, uh, top of the eighth, down two with Soto on, and bam, oppo jack, which was a line drive that was probably at the, at the most 25 feet up- Yeah, it was not-...
3:28
off the ground... it was not high, yeah. [laughs] It was incredible. Uh, and it just gets out, and we have a tie ballgame, and the Yankees are going crazy. Next batter steps up against Clase is Giancarlo Stanton.
3:39
He goes yard, and the Yankees lead it four to three in the top of the eighth, and they're going nuts, the Yankees are, because this is them on the cusp of a, of a three to nothing lead in this best of seven series.
3:52
And you know, if you're not the 2004 Red Sox, that's death's door- Plus-... for the, for the opponent. Yeah, plus the way it happens too, right? How many- Oh...
3:59
how many years have we been waiting for, for, or Yankees fans have been waiting for Judge, Stanton, boom, boom, takes it, uh, uh, take over late in the game, win it for us. Looks like they're about to do it.
4:09
Yankees add the old insurance run in the top of the ninth.
4:11
It's five to three, and then bottom of the ninth, um, Jose Ramirez gets on on an error, but then Josh Naylor immediately with a double play, so it's, you know, against, uh...
4:23
At this point, it was, um, it was not l- not Weaver anymore, but it was Holmes on the mound for, for the Yankees. So there's two out, nobody on. The Guardians are, uh, Guardians are down two.
4:36
Um, they get o- they get a runner on base, and up steps Giancarlo Noel. Giancarlo Noel to the plate, uh, down again to their last out with a runner on. Goodbye.
4:50
Absolutely pulverizes the baseball, gone, and Cleveland goes into utter pandemonium. [laughs] Except for Clevelander Adam Burke, who I text. I go, "Let's go." [laughs] And he's like, "Oh, boy. Oh, boy.
5:03
This is, this is painful." I'm like, "Yes, it is. It's torture." That's what we used to call it in San Francisco. Yeah, yeah, I was gonna say, I think you're just torturing him at that point, yep.
5:09
Five to five, we go to extras. Uh, bottom of the 10th, uh, Lane Thomas almost goes yard. It goes off the top of the wall. He gets on second base with two out, and upstil- up steps David Fry.
5:20
Um, well, actually, that was the previous one. That was Luke Weaver who gave up the shot to, uh, Noel. Pardon me.
5:25
This is, uh, in this case, this is, uh, um, Holmes, and then this is, uh, David Fry, who was one of our March, April, and May stars when we had those Guardians bet. He goes yard.
5:36
Both of those homers from Noel and Fry, no doubters, and the Guardians from the dead beat the Yankees seven to five, and that series now two games to one. Game four is tonight in Cleveland at Progressive Field.
5:51
Um, that one is going to be Luis Hill going up against Gavin Williams. Neither of these guys have pitched since the regular season. So that's game four tonight.
6:00
That will be preceded, uh, by the way, it's minus 120 on the Yankees. The Yankees, the slightest of favorites in game four, as the Guardians try to, uh, knot that series up at two games a piece.
6:09
The early game today, 'cause we do have a double header, is game five of the, uh, Dodgers and the Mets. That's the one that's kind of like, my goodness. Remember all that Mets hope? That existed mere days ago.
6:22
Well, the Dodgers win last night 10-2. The Dodgers three wins in this series now. They lead the best of seven series three games to one. Are nine to nothing, eight to nothing, and 10 to two. Is that good?
6:33
Yeah, it's pretty good. That was a, uh, not very competitive game last night. Mookie was four of six with four ribbies last night. He was, he was tremendous.
6:40
It's like when, it's like, oh, it's not gonna be a good game for somebody else. Oh, I forgot Mookie plays tonight. Right. [laughs] Yeah, there's four. It's just there's, it's just amazing.
6:48
But the- Also, how, like, depressing does it immediately have to be when Ohtani gets up to, like- Oh... first at bat and it's just home run? Like, oh, cool, we're down one-nothing already too.
6:56
I'm just living this through Mets fans, though, like our buddy Parlay. It's like the hope of all of these Mets fans trying to get back to their first World Series since 2015. Um, before that it was 2000.
7:07
They haven't won since 1986. They're just as, the Mets' magic to get them in on that final regular season double header, their performance in the wild card and the division rounds. They win game two.
7:17
All of a sudden Bueller is set up for game three. Everyone's super excited. And the Dodgers have beaten them so badly- Yeah... that the, the hope has diminished to they have to win today or it's over.
7:27
It's, it's not even entertaining for, for those of us that might be in the camp of, look, I'm not rooting against the Mets, but it's very entertaining in sports when the Mets get far- Yeah...
7:36
and then something hor- you know, tragic, horrible happens, uh, lo- loss-wise. But, uh, like you said, the Dodgers aren't even making this, uh, competitive.
7:45
Well, it's Jack Flaherty as a minus 142 favorite for the Dodgers this afternoon at Citi Field.
7:50
Again, the Mets trying to stave off elimination, going up against, uh, this is David Peterson, who his, his, you know, his baseball card stat's a little better than his advanced stats.
8:01
His ERA is better than his, uh, his fielding independent and his xFIP.
8:05
That on the, that the reason for that, a slightly elevated strand rate and a really reduced home run to fly ball rate, so not quite as good as the ERA suggests.
8:16
Uh, there'll be a quick hook, as quick a hook as you could possibly have in a, uh, as elimination games go, and that's the story this afternoon. Dodgers minus 142 favorites as they look to close out the Mets.
8:26
Come on, Guardians, make that other one competitive at least. Uh, football last night. I ended up using the Broncos as my, uh, as one of my millions picks. Good for you. That was an easy one.
8:36
[laughs] Yeah, I, I, and I bet them too, but that, that was, 'cause I, I couldn't come up with a better fifth. Yeah. And I, and there was the possibility that this was a free bingo square yesterday.
8:47
Uh, it does go over in the end. Um, 33-10, the Broncos beat the Saints in a game that does not deserve any kind of recap other than the Broncos were smart. Sean Payton was smart to take field goals.
8:59
He just knew if he just got points every time, that that would eventually add up. Um, Spencer Rattler fumbled twice. One was returned for a touchdown.
9:08
There was a second one, or actually a third fumble, but a second one that was actually returned for a fumble also, uh, by Cody Barton in both cases. Cody Barton, uh, one counted.
9:19
One in the first half did not count when the score was six to nothing because the [laughs] Broncos were ruled offside. So this could've technically been even worse than it was. 33-10. It was just destruction.
9:30
Nicks, Bo Nix 16 of 26 for 164, but 10 carries for 75 yards as well. Spencer Rattler, uh, was, uh, threw for 172 yards. Not only did he have the two fumbles, but he was sacked six times in this football game.
9:45
And the Saints, after winning their first two, now a mesh unit, obviously don't have their starting quarterback in Derek Carr, but now, as I mentioned yesterday, could be the case. Rashid Shaheed is gone for the year.
9:55
That was confirmed yesterday. And the Saints are, they've lost five in a row. They're two and five now. And the Broncos get to four and three.
10:02
And I'll say this about the Broncos, or said earlier in the week, they strike me, listen, every NFL game, I mean, you could say this about a lot of sports, but every NFL game, certainly if you take a lead, you're in an advantageous position.
10:13
But I think the Broncos are the most game script impacted team there is. In other words, if they can get ahead, that kind of defense and that kind of conservative offense can get you to the finish line in a ball game.
10:28
They are not a team that will do well when they're behind. I know they made it interesting against the Chargers last year, but I th- uh, last week, but I think that's kind of their identity. Mm-hmm. But good on them.
10:39
They're four and three, and good on, uh, Sean Payton for coaching up Bo Nix. Um, they have done a lot better here early on than I would've suspected.
10:46
Yeah, and I, I mean, I would add on, I, I think the game script you're, you're talking about's dead on, and, but it also, they feel like a dead under team going forward.
10:54
This game goes, uh, goes over, which was maybe the biggest surprise to me was, uh, you know, I was on team total under on the Saints yesterday.
11:00
That got home easily, was I, not a huge shock to see the offensive struggles from the Saints, but then on the defensive side- Oh... of the ball- It's brutal... just getting run all over by the Broncos. Oh, yeah.
11:10
Like, that's, that's gotta be the way more concerning part if you're New Orleans. We talked about that yesterday, though. That was a definitely possibility.
11:16
By the way, it would've stayed under, but in the, you know, in sort of garbage time- Oh, yeah... was the fumble return for a touchdown by Barton, and then the Saints down 33-3- [laughs]...
11:25
get the cosmetic touchdown at the end- That's a rough beat... with, with Jayden Daniel at quarterback, not with, with Rattler- Yeah... at quarterback.
11:30
Yeah, but you're talking about the Saints next week, we, we usually talk about, like, two quarterbacks, uh, and who y- who's gonna go. It could be, like, one of four quarterbacks next week. Yeah.
11:38
We, we, uh, we, we don't know what Rattler's status really is after that game. Daniel possibility, Carr could be back, and [laughs] Jase Hill maybe could be back. Maybe he's the guy. Could be Bobby A. Bear.
11:47
We don't know. Right. Yeah. Maybe they could trade back for your guy, Jameson, uh, Jameson Williams. Yeah. They, they should, yeah. Yeah. You still, you still want Jameson starting in Cleveland? Yeah. Yeah. Of course.
11:57
It's Kelly's guy. Kelly Bidlin nine and one heading into this weekend of Circa Millions Q2. Don't know what I'm playing, but yeah. We'll come back.
12:06
Are we sure week seven of the National Football League and everything we have bet in the NFL on Sunday, or maybe Monday, it's a numbers game at Visa, the sports betting network.
12:15
[upbeat music]A Numbers Game on VSiN, the sports betting network Back on The Numbers Game live from Circa. Circa Resort Casino in downtown Las Vegas. It's Gil Alexander.
12:33
Always appreciate you, uh, making us part of your Monday through Friday between 10:00 to noon Eastern, 7:00 to 9:00 Pacific. Uh, and as always, as part of Football Friday, hour number two, after Felika, before Dr.
12:44
Bob, Steve Fezzik joins us in studio. Today is no different. You can follow him on Twitter @FezzikSports, [laughs] at your own peril, by the way, I should add.
12:53
He's not very nice on Twitter, but in real life he's actually a decent human being. It's Steve Fezzik, everybody, the only back-to-back winner of the Hilton Super Contest. How are you, sir?
13:01
The pioneer, the bear, the actuary. What more could you want on your Friday morning? That's right. A, a bear, an actuary- [laughs]... and a pioneer walk into a bar together. [laughs] What happens?
13:10
Hey, can you, g- will you take a, uh, listener question before we get into all that you wanted to talk about? Absolutely. 'Cause I think this is a good one. This is from good friend Chillionare.
13:17
He actually asked this, uh, last hour, and I promised I would, I would, uh, pass it on to you.
13:22
Said, "Gil had a question for Fezzik, if you don't mind asking, if he can explain how he determines NFL power rankings and the corresponding spreads for match-ups. Thank you, and enjoy the weekend, guys."
13:32
Yeah, so it's complicated, but to, to simplify, uh, I've got a number that... And by the way, every power rating for an average team should be zero.
13:41
So it used to be, like, college teams, their power rating for Ball State's 64. What, what does that mean? So an average team is a zero.
13:48
Best team right now would be, like, Detroit Lions, five and a half, Kansas City Chiefs, five and a half. If they played an average team, um, that would be a zero.
13:56
On a neutral, I take the difference, it'd be five and a half. Take the difference between the power ratings, adjust for home field, which is not the same for all teams. Right.
14:03
Like this week I would give Jacksonville one for a London home field advantage, by example. Um, how do I actually set those numbers? I look at the underlying metrics like the yards per play, et cetera.
14:15
I look at recent injuries, any quarterback changes. Like, the New Orleans Saints are, like, a minus five and a half in my ratings, um, before that game last night.
14:22
So they're, they're literally the worst team in the league right now aft- after last night- Oh, brutal... because they don't have Carr. Yeah. And they've got so many other injuries.
14:31
Um, and then to set an actual line, there's, I mean, there's certain situations that you have to be aware of, you know, good situations, bad situations, but the, the, my starting point is always the difference between the power ratings and then adjust for home field, and usually the, most of the power ratings are based on, like, the underlying statistics.
14:48
But if I'm way off-market, I will adjust back to the market. I won't be just on a complete and utter island. I would say the one team I'm probably more optimistic than most would be the Eagles. I'm higher on the Eagles.
14:59
Mm-hmm. Like, I think the Eagles will win the division, not your Washington Football Team.
15:03
I was gonna save this for later, but let's just, since you bring up the Eagles, that is your best play of this week, straight bet? Yes.
15:09
Uh, so the Eagles laying three, I think you can get that over at the Hall of Fame bookmakers over at the South Point. So you can go and play, uh, play it right there, minus 110. You don't wanna lay minus...
15:18
It, wh- it's fine to lay up to minus 115. Um, my handicap, I will, my power ratings make it five, so that's one handicap. My second power rating would be comps. So the Giants were just playing the Bengals, all right?
15:31
The Bengals were laying four. The transitive property, I like that. Transitive property. That's right. So I have Eagles greater than, greater than Bengals. Mm-hmm. Many people have them, eh, comparable.
15:42
Let's say they're comparable, all right? So if the Bengals were laying four, all right, against, at, at New York Giants, then the Eagles should be laying four at the New York Giants, not laying three.
15:51
Now, you could say, "Well, wait a minute, Fezz. They get neighbors back, their gifted wide receiver." Yeah, but they lost their left tackle, the Giants did, and also, um, Dexter Lawrence is banged up.
16:00
So the injuries at best is a push for the Giants, and from the transitive property, you land on four from my power ratings, f- minus five, so I'm gonna lay minus three. I think Crackman likes that as well. All right.
16:11
Eagles minus three at the New York Giants. That's Fezzik's, uh, play of the week. He will have a, uh, play for next week, uh, to look at, which he has done every week that he's come on the show here.
16:20
Uh, we'll get to that momentarily, but you, uh, you wanted to comment on something we were talking about earlier here, where, uh, someone tweeted in, and I, I always, I always say this, that from a psychological, uh, standpoint, um, not playing something that ends up winning somehow takes a bigger toll than actually losing something that you're involved in.
16:39
You have a problem with that. Well, I agree with you directionally in terms psychologically. Yes. That's all we're saying. Oh, okay. Yeah. All right. Fair- fair enough. Yeah.
16:46
Because obviously when you lose a bad beat- Yeah... you, you... That's a 2.1-unit swing. Yes. When you miss Gilley's two winners on tennis, well, that's, like, a 1.8. You know, this is, this is a hard thing.
16:57
Um, so that's, so that, that... Even, even missing, like, a plus 200 winner on your tennis- Yeah... that's only costing me two units. A bad beat cost me 2.1.
17:05
By the way, I was thinking about how hard it is to be a professional sports bettor, so last night I went out to dinner, um, with family, and had an early dinner at 6:15, went right to sleep.
17:15
[laughs] And, uh, uh, and, and, and, and Gilley texted me, "I bet you didn't bet my tennis winners last night, did you?" This, this morning. Yeah. Yes.
17:21
'Cause I, I can tell when you guys don't play them 'cause there's not a, uh, uproar of excitement, right? And, and frankly- So I'm like, "Oh, let me just shut and play them"... you know, I don't, I just, I, I...
17:28
Think about this. I just imagine this. I shut it down Friday at 6:00 PM un- I, I, Thursday at 6:00 PM until Friday morning. Um, we, we work 24/7. I mean, it's crazy. I, uh, I don't know.
17:39
I don't know if I should text them anymore to you guys. I don't know. I don't- I just, you know, I don't care about the sushi spot. Just send the tennis. [laughs] Send me the tennis.
17:46
Okay, let me, let's, uh, let's do this one, though, 'cause I think you and I are super simpatico on this. I have talked about this from time to time on this show.
17:55
Um, haven't in a while, though, but it has come up s- several times during the years, and that is the notion of, um, 'cause, because Bob has an opinion on this, so oftentimes Dr.
18:06
Bob will come on and he'll be like, "Oh, all the, all the lucky stuff evens out."
18:11
And I contend that if you are good, right, I have contended this before, if you're good at what you do, if you genuinely have an edge in a particular sport, that it does not even out. You agree?
18:22
Of course not Because if I'm really good, I'm gonna win 54 to 55% of my bets. So, um, for every 100 bets I have, I have 55 of every right sides.
18:34
We'll say I have 55 right sides and 45 wrong sides, 55's a lot bigger than 45, so I'm gonna get f- if 10% of them go south through nefarious methods, I'm gonna lose five and a half of those.
18:47
I'm only gonna lose four and a half on the other side, and that's just with the random luck. Also, sharps tend to play more unders- Mm-hmm... and more underdogs.
18:56
Last time I checked, um, underdogs and unders don't do well in overtime. So every time a game goes overtime and you, and you lose an under, you know, that, I mean, that's gonna be a bad beat to, to the sharps.
19:07
And I mean, and that's crushing for people who play basketball totals that, that primarily play unders. I mean, that's... And, and overtime's an enormous hit each and every year.
19:16
Underdogs were, uh, excuse me, overtime where underdogs go to die, as they say. Absolutely, yes. Um, I, I actually think that's a pretty fascinating subject.
19:23
I, and again, I haven't brought it up in a long time, but I really believe that also. And you know it, um, you, you, you broke it down beautifully mathematically, that mathematically it makes sense.
19:32
But also just, you know, anecdotally, when you think about it, you're like, oh, if you're being honest about it, yeah, there are sports where, like, like the NFL is Plinko.
19:42
I would never tell you that it doesn't even out in the NFL. Total last night. Okay, the side wasn't Plinko- Yeah... but that total was- The total was completely Plinko... random, random. Yes. Right.
19:49
Um, but there are sports that you, you can have an expertise in where you think about, and if you're being honest, and, and you should be honest, you should always acknowledge when you're getting the best of it luck-wise, but the, the, the ones that go against you when you're good are absolutely more common.
20:05
You know, and Charlie J, very gifted hockey bettor, um, part of the Tuesday group for years and years. I haven't spoke to Charlie for a few years. Does the Tuesday group still exist, by the way? No. Disbanded.
20:14
It doesn't. It did? Yeah. Well- How many years ago did it disband? It was like, I stopped going like 15 years ago. Yes. So, so as far as you're concerned, that's when it disbanded? [laughs] Well,
20:24
z- z- z- I'm sorry, interrupted. Go ahead. Um- Yeah...
20:26
but, but Charlie brought up an excellent point, because he played a lot of overs, and he's like, "You guys are like square sharps in many ways," because you don't wanna, you wanna feel every, you know, fumble return for touchdown, every kickoff return for touchdown is just, you know, a c- completely random event.
20:42
And, and, and last time I checked, will there be a defensive touchdown or special teams touchdown is always, you know, the no is minus 300, but the yes is plus 250.
20:50
That means if, if you play, you know, 10 games, you have three of these- It will happen... three of these suckers is gonna happen. Yeah.
20:56
So, so you need to adjust two to three points each and every game for such an occurrence. Yeah. We almost had- Two points... we almost had two of them last night. Yeah.
21:03
One got, one got called back from a, from an offside penalty. Um, okay. So how is, how is your season going so far, by the way, in the NFL? You doing w- you doing okay?
21:13
The, yeah, the NFL's been bad, actually, um, below 500. Oh, really? College football, you know, this is an amazing thing, college football's been good- Yeah...
21:20
despite the worst money line performance you would ever imagine. [laughs] So, I mean, I have just, I, I've, okay- Can I ask you about that? Yeah. Why, uh, okay, so you lost on Louisiana Tech the other night.
21:31
It was a big money line favorite again. Yes. You are c- or you're most famous for Purdue as a number one seed, minus 4500 I believe it was- Yes... taking on Fairleigh Dickinson. We all know Fairleigh Dickinson upset.
21:42
In the, in the only six, or excuse me, the second 16 to one upset in the history of, uh, March Madness. You keep doing it.
21:50
You c- it's almost like you lean into it, and you're almost more adamant about publicizing it when you do this on Twitter. Why would that be?
21:58
Well, I'm stubborn, because the math, the, and, and famously with the Purdue loss, Elihu Feustel came on and said, "Oh yeah, I, I, I, I, I loved that play. I bet it as well." Yes. All right? So number one seeds.
22:08
And, and it's not- And if, and if Elihu says it's good, then it, it, it, number one- Well, the number one seeds is irrelevant. It's just a matter of- Yeah... you know, looking back historically- Correct...
22:15
at, at, at, at teams in the tournament that are 23-point favorites, 'cause you're never gonna get a flat 23-point favorite in a tournament. But I will say this. I, I, I've been thinking about this.
22:23
I'm gonna stop doing in college football, because I think, um, the historical on, on how well a team covers laying 12 is, says it's a g- it's a good bet, like on Louisiana Tech.
22:33
But with the transfer portal and the uncertainty of how good the teams are, I think there's more volatility than there has been in the past, and because of that, I'm gonna pump the brakes.
22:41
I'm gonna say part of it is, like, no one has been better with college football season wins than Dr. Bob. Yeah. And he has LaTech over five, and I actually said to myself, "Boy, he needs this game.
22:50
He c- he's not gonna win LaTech if they don't win this game," and, and I know he's gonna win, because he wins every year. So I was like, [laughs] "LaTech's gonna win this game."
22:58
And then, you know, they were like 95% lining up for basically an extra point- Yeah... on a game-winning field goal. Yeah. So, uh, hey, the karma, bad karma.
23:07
When we come back, Steve's, uh, look-ahead play for week eight. Also, maybe some advice for Kelly's nine and one millions quarter entry. That's next.
23:23
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23:41
Use promo code VSiN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200 at firstbet.com today. Skill Alexander, Steve Fezzik kind enough to, uh, hang with us for a second segment. We've got a lot to get to.
23:53
I just wanna review something you said, 'cause I don't wanna gloss over it. First of all, we caught that you, uh, blamed that Louisiana Tech loss on, uh, on Dr. Bob. You picked up on that?
24:01
[laughs] Kelly picked up on it more than I did. Uh, he's very right. Um, but just to clarify, so you, because of this variance in college football, you might ratchet back these big money lines in that sport specifically?
24:13
Yes. I- Okay... people think I'm, I'm completely and utter old guy, get off my lawn inflexible, and, and nothing's further from the truth. Not you. I'm the first guy to say I make all kinds of mistakes. Not you.
24:22
I mean, and, and I can adjust, and I, I pride myself on that- Yes... you know, reinventing myself. Yes. Um, we did get one question on Twitter also.
24:30
Uh, this is addressed to me, Jordan Pagel, "Are we getting an apolitical election betting segment this year?" We've already done one. We will absolutely do at least one or two more here before the election.
24:42
You are doing some election stuff on your own. Yep, we're having- You wanna talk about that? We're having a lot of fun on Bet US. We did, um, f- we did two election shows, um, so Kyle Hunter, Doug Kazarian, and I.
24:53
And based upon the past, basically the election comes down to f- you know, four of the, um, the swing states. Mm-hmm. And w- very likely whoever wins Pennsylvania's gonna win this election. Should be very close.
25:04
Should be very close. Uh, can't wait to, uh, talk more election betting. Uh, we've, uh, we've done great doing it through the years here on The Numbers Game, so yes, Jordan, we absolutely will.
25:13
Um, I mentioned before we get, 'cause you have a teaser you wanna give out, and then we wanna talk about week eight. You have a look-ahead. Um, but before we do that, Kelly is nine and one.
25:22
It is a five-week quarter in millions, in circa millions. He's nine and one, he's doing it on his conviction.
25:31
You had an interesting bit of, you have an interesting bit of advice for anyone like Kelly who is at or towards the top of the leaderboard, even two weeks into a five-week.
25:42
Yeah, so this is gonna be controversial because Kelly is kicking butt. Yes. And the sharps are not.
25:47
[laughs] The sharps are struggling p- and the sharps that play the best numbers, like Jacksonville plus two, like Tennessee plus one famously last week, they all got punked.
25:58
They all did lousy, so they're not in contention. So Kelly likely should consider pivoting and playing the value that's being offered in the contest, submitting as late as possible.
26:10
The reason being, the people he's competing against, they're not gonna listen to me, that Fezzik's an idiot. He's five and five on his 10, and I'm nine and one.
26:19
I'm gonna take the five teams I like the best and regardless of what the point spread being offered is.
26:24
So what you are suggesting, and another way to say it is, Kelly, who has gotten to nine and one by his own conviction, ought to pivot his strategy to now just take the best of it bec- and, and not your, and not go by the conviction that brought you to this dance this far, nine and one, because the people who are behind you are unlikely to ever catch you the way that they bet, right?
26:49
Yes. If, if you bet that way. And the people who are- If you bet the same way they do... and the people that you're tied with are not gonna play that way. Right, they're gonna- They're not gonna take advantage. Right.
26:57
They're gonna still play by their conviction. But I'd like to say tweak his strategy. Yes. I don't wanna go completely against it. Right.
27:03
I wanna like it be a hybrid where maybe he will take his two or three favorite picks of the week and then take two pure value picks. So I think, I think this is fascinating because
27:14
I get what you're saying on pa- uh, like, and I understand logically that your, your strategy here is probably the right one, except for the fact that we all have human brains. Mm-hmm. And the problem is, is that
27:30
K- Kelly and anybody else who's nine and one, or ten and O, they will hate themselves if they end up losing now going to your strategy, when if they had stayed with their own conviction, they would've ended up winning.
27:45
Exactly. However, the second, like, uh, let's say he's in contention the last week, and there was odds, will Kelly Benton win the quarterly prize? Yes.
27:52
The second they saw the five best math plays being submitted by him, his odds would adjust in his favor- Right... versus playing his five favorite plays kind of regardless of what the spread dealt.
28:04
So, so then isn't, let's split the difference then.
28:06
So then isn't the proper way to do this, Kelly should probably play the way that he wants to this week and maybe a hybrid the following week, and then pivot to your strategy if he is still up towards the top the last week?
28:19
I think he should pivot now, but- You think he should... but, but that's, uh, that's how- Yeah... I've been successful in my contests. So I'm, I- That's all right...
28:25
I probably have a little bit too much of a bias towards- Yeah... that because I've been so good with those contests doing just that over the years.
28:31
By the way, you, uh, you distinguish between Kelly and the sharps we noticed, and here is a, here's Kelly, live shot of Kelly here- [laughs]... and the square bears. There he is.
28:39
And you know, I gotta, I gotta tell you- He's working out for him...
28:40
the square bears, like anyone who's not following, there's a whole bunch, I'm not gonna name, name them, but I'm, I mean, and I, I'll name m- mine, like, like w- like I'm on podcasts and, and we've done terrible picking against the spread, and I'm not, you know, uh, a- and if you're listening to a whole bunch of these guys, the number one thing, and I've always emphasized this, it's really, really difficult to win, and it's especially difficult to win when boom, snapshot, point in time, um, on the mega pod, like, like last year you just destroyed it.
29:08
You did so well. Yeah. But you have to make five selections or three selections- Oh... at one set point in time.
29:14
You don't get to, like, cherry-pick when news is breaking and all of a sudden, you know, like that's why, uh, my friend The Hitman does so well.
29:21
Uh, uh, like you can't just smoke dope all week and get who The Hitman's playing Friday night because you're like, "Well, wait a minute, he played minus two and the line's minus three."
29:28
Well, yeah, you gotta be, you gotta be engaged. You gotta get it right when the news hits.
29:32
Otherwise, I just don't think, I, I think no one's gonna win laying minus 110, playing five NFL sides at one select point in time against market numbers. 3Jack, uh, H3131 chimes in.
29:43
He goes, "How dare Fezzik say Kelly AKA Preston [laughs] isn't sharp. Twitter Fezzik popping up in real life on ANG." Oh. I'm trying to tame him. Okay, let's get to the good stuff here.
29:53
Uh, you, you've been kind enough to come on and give a look-ahead, uh, position every single week you've come on. Would you like to comment on last week's look ahead to this week first between the Steelers and the Jets?
30:03
Oh, gosh, it's li- it's, it's like WrestleMania III, you know, the Macho Man. What a disaster, you know? Yeah. Um, everything went wrong. [laughs] Outside interference, you know, George "The Animal" Steele from behind.
30:15
Um, all right, I gave out the Steelers minus one, and I said, "This m- makes no sense against the Jets." It's a terrible spot for the Jets. The Jets were playing on some other continent.
30:25
Where was that, Australia, week five? I'm pretty sure it was not. Uh, uh, yeah. Yeah. I think it was, I think it was Europe. Yeah. Okay. Yeah.
30:30
And then they, and, now think about the rollercoaster, ah, and they lose, they're do- and then they fire their coach, and then maybe, maybe they're up. And then they play the Bills- [laughs]...
30:38
and they're down, but it's Monday Night Football, but then they get the Hail Mary and they're up. But then doink, they hit the f- kicks off the crossbar. It's, it's, it's bottom line- Wow, this is exhausting. Yeah...
30:47
exhausting. Yes. All right? As opposed to, eh, the Steelers, we go out to Vegas and we crush, we crushed the Raiders.
30:54
Um, and so I was like the spot screams Pittsburgh, the power rating scream Pittsburgh, and then Devonte Adams goes to the Jets. That's obviously gonna help the Jets.
31:04
It makes them a better team, and he knows the system, and he knows Rogers, and boom, and now the Steelers are going with Russell Wilson- Yeah... at quarterback. And you know what? What is that?
31:14
I'm gonna show a little humility.
31:15
I think maybe the, uh, there are those who were aware that that Devonte Adams trade was coming, and I don't think anybody really, really thought Russell Wilson was gonna be the starting quarterback.
31:25
So there's been bad news for Pittsburgh, um, and that's, that's gonna happen when you play a minus one and now it's plus two. But I'm gonna double down and now I'm gonna tease Pittsburgh. Oh, is that what you're doing?
31:35
Because I still, yeah. Okay. So that's my tease of the week. I'm gonna play Pittsburgh from plus two up to plus eight.
31:39
With your Washington football team minus eight to minus two, because I still power rating-wise, I, I, I, I made some adjustments.
31:48
I still can only get to pick 'em on this game, and I'm getting plus two up to plus eight and that's easier. All right, the Stillers and the Commodores is your, uh, teaser of the week. By the way, uh, let's rack that.
31:58
We had humble Steve Fezzik there for a moment. Let's make sure we, uh, solidify that in history. Oh, I'm wrong all the time. Um- All the time. All right, what- 46% of the time, oftentimes 47 and a half percent.
32:08
[laughs] All right, what's your look ahead for week eight, sir? All right, so we're gonna s- I mean, we're gonna set it up. Yeah. And I'm gonna say to bet it or go. This will be at DraftKings. All right?
32:17
We're gonna take Atlanta, Tampa Bay. The total is 48, set up over on Atlanta, Tampa Bay. Go. Oh. We are betting over 48 Atlanta, Tampa Bay. This is a very simplistic handicap.
32:31
Um, eh, Tampa Bay has an above average offense and a below average defense.
32:37
Atlanta has an average defense and a above average offense that's really gelling now that Cousins, you know, looks to be fully back from his injury. Also, anyone paying any attention,
32:48
the scoring is finally going up in the NFL, going up big time. Yeah. The kickoff rules are helping. Um, you start on the 30, you get two first downs, you can kick a field goal, right? It's amazing. [laughs] It really is.
32:58
Yeah.
32:59
Um, so the last two weeks, the average scoring has been right around 50 in both weeks, and here's a game that looks, I know I don't like division game overs, but, um, you've got the offenses have the advantage, and you've got a total sub 50 at 48, so we're gonna go over the 48.
33:13
Bold prediction, I know I got the line move wrong on the Steelers. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. The Davante Adams with, me bad. Uh, I'm confident this one will indeed beat the closing number. Okay.
33:23
Um, by the way, you have to let it breathe next time, 'cause people are landing on the show for the first time.
33:27
So when you said go, they didn't know that there was a possibility that it could've been a cancel or an oppo. That, yeah, that's an excellent point. You know, one thing- Yeah...
33:34
I have noticed with Right Angle Sports is that when they go- Yeah... they go faster than when they cancel, all right? I don't know if you've noticed this.
33:42
So if it's a go, it tends to go, like, after 10 seconds, and if it's a cancel or an oppo, they tend to wait like 15 seconds. So, like, after 12 seconds, they're like, "Ah, this one's a phony."
33:53
Oh, a little tell is what you're saying. Yes. Oh, okay. For those who are, you know, down with Right Angle Sports. Thank you, Steve. Appreciate it, man. Appreciate it.
34:02
Steve Fezzik, always a, uh, entertaining and insightful two segments. Dr. Bob, the pioneer. On the other side, we'll talk some college football next right here on a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network.
34:13
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