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Oct 2, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | October 2, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | October 2, 2024
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34:48
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers told the story, they always do. For all those idiots who believe in analytics This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Wednesday morning to you.
0:10
There's a numbers game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV, too many ways to get us. I think I named them all though. Whichever way you do, we appreciate it.
0:20
It's Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bidlin to my left, to your right. How you doing, Kelly? I'm doing well, except you got me fired up pre-show, uh, talking about Danny Green stories.
0:29
Danny Green with a great, uh, guest appearance on the VSiN Morning Line here this morning. And I, uh, I reminded you of a primetime action classic night where, uh, where MGM posted a bad prop on Danny Green.
0:41
Yes, really bad. You being the exploiter that you are- [laughs]... correctly tried to exploit it. Uh, what was it? Over something? I was thinking- It was like, I think it was like 13 and a half points was his real line.
0:54
They put- they forgot the one- They forgot the one... and it was like three and a half.
0:58
[laughs] And so he came, w- [laughs] and so there was a three-pointer, I remember, the second half that went halfway down and bounced up, and that, that would've been my first question to Danny Green. I goes, "Do you..."
1:07
Uh, I would've been like, "Do you remember this one time- [laughs]... you had this shot that went halfway down?" "Yeah, Kel- Kelly lost on that." I was listening. That was awesome. Oh, it was a rough night.
1:16
[laughs] That's great. Uh, anyway, Danny Green was on the, uh, the Money Line- the, uh, Morning Line this morning, so good on them for having him on. Uh, we have quite the show.
1:24
Mark Borcherdt to talk Major League Baseball postseason. What a quadruple header that was yesterday. We have another quadruple header today, baby. This is great.
1:33
Uh, if necessary, quadruple header tomorrow, but, you know, any facsimile of. We could have no games tomorrow, we could have four, we could have everything in between.
1:41
Then our NFL power rankings coming up, and, oh, I like this, Win Total Wednesdays, baby. Ooh. This is, because people are like, "Win Total Wednesdays?" Adjusted season win totals,
1:52
my favorite three that currently exist, and I kind of love them. I got two. I got two. I think I'm s- thinking the same lines as you, though. We, we, we- Oh, do, do we match on any? We didn't match on any. Okay.
2:04
But- But I think, yours I saw I considered heavily, uh, all of them. Oh, thank you for doing so. Mm.
2:09
Uh, and then in, in hour number two, uh, not only Jason Weingarten, but Aaron Schatz, uh, FTN Chiefs analytics off- uh, chief analytics officer, not Chiefs analytics officer, he doesn't work for that team.
2:20
Chief analytics officer, CAO they call him. Uh, the founder of Football Outsiders, now works at FTN, uh, the creator of DVOA.
2:27
He comes quarterly on the show during football season, and since we're through four games, you know, it's 17 now, so it's kind of, you can't really do it exact. Uh, but he'll come on and to give us his quarterly report.
2:37
I'll talk to him about, uh, through the prism of DVOA, who's the best, who's the worst, what are, what units have st- stood out thus far.
2:45
But he's also an awards bettor, uh, so we'll get his preliminary thoughts on that, if he's thinking anything. It's always, you gotta see what we can pry out of him, 'cause he's an actual- An awards voter...
2:56
a- awards voter, pardon me. Uh, the one guy who did not vote for Lamar Jackson for MVP last year. Yeah, and, and, and look, I'm going back to our conversation last week. Yeah.
3:07
In fact, [laughs] we gotta ask about [laughs] Comeback Player of the Year. Gotta ask about- I know the voters are talking about it... gotta ask about Comeback Player of the Year.
3:13
And then also, he had some preseason thoughts on this show that so far look pretty good. Yeah. We'll get to those as well, uh, with Aaron. Um, first of all- Can I ask a random question real quick? Sorry, I'm sorry.
3:23
Win Total Wednesdays. Yes, sir. Of all the time you and I have been working together now- Yeah. What's that been? Uh, uh- Like eight, nine years now? Uh, no, we're like s- six. Solid six. Okay. Okay.
3:32
Uh, adjusted season win totals.
3:34
I don't think since the legalization of sports betting and the expansion nationwide here in this country, I don't think there's a single market that I've seen you get more excited about- I love...
3:43
than when we first- I love... started talking about them. Well, be- Does that still hold true today? It still holds true because, again, and I don't wanna, if I've said this a h- 100 times, it's before...
3:51
Pe- people listen to Betting Dork and Beating the Book on the podcast side and on a numbers game early on in a numbers game.
3:58
Before the legalization, I used to refer to something as a stock market-like thing that I do off the grid- Right... which is the best betting vehicle I've ever been involved with, which was a Lehman Brothers.
4:10
This is l- well, it was a Wall Street thing that was the most heavily participated in thing that anything internally at Lehman Brothers.
4:17
I was, they were, I was fortunate enough that they included me in this, um, as others were from outside of Lehman Brothers.
4:23
But it was, it was adjusted season win totals, but with a buy price and a, and a sell price, and it was, the markets were made by actual, you know, Wall Street guys who knew what they were doing. Mm-hmm.
4:34
So it was really tough. So, and one year I would be the best, one year I'd be the worst. Like, it was really, it was college and pro, uh, different market maker for each s- some years.
4:43
But anyway, then when legalization happened, I'm like, "This is the greatest thing ever"- [laughs]... because you could see the mistakes they made. Right.
4:49
Some people will remember the first year they did, the first week, they adjusted the Broncos- Yeah... three games up when they won a game they were supposed to win in week one, right? So there's all kinds.
4:57
Now, they're better at it now, uh, but I have three that I love coming up. I'll just, I'll never forget it, 'cause Gil's- Yeah... face, I feel like the first time- Oh...
5:03
I, like, brought it up, I'm like, "Hey, we have adjusted season." He's like, "Here in Vegas?" [laughs] "Like, we can bet these?" [laughs] It's the greatest. So excited.
5:09
Uh, real quick though, uh, Major League Baseball yesterday, uh, four games, went two and one on the picks, and therefore two and one in terms of advancing towards the series plays, 'cause those matched.
5:21
Uh, hit, yeah, first thing in the m- in the morning, hit Detroit as a dog with Tarik Skubal doing his thing.
5:27
Six innings strong, didn't give up a earned run on four hits, six K's against one walk, and then the Tigers did their signature mix and match the rest of the way. It got hairy at the end.
5:37
Uh, the Astros left the bases loaded in the ninth, down three to one, and, uh, Brisky got out of it. Jason Heyward with a, uh, on-the-screws rocket, but right at, uh, first base, and that was the end of that.
5:50
Tigers hold on. So we get that one. Uh, though it, it was quickly followed by the loss of the day. The Orioles lose to the Royals one to nothing. The Orioles completely waste a great Corbin Burn start.
6:05
Uh, Corbin Burn's eight innings of efficient pitching on 84 pitches in eight innings, gave up one earned run. That was all it took. Five hits, three, uh, five hits, three Ks, one walk.
6:16
Uh, Ragans was great for the Royals. He, uh, gave up no earned runs in six innings. Four hits is all he allowed. Eight Ks, and, uh, did not issue any free passes.
6:26
But Burns, this was, you know, like you gotta take advantage of that if you're the Baltimore Orioles. And the one time in the sixth inning where Bobby Witt Jr.
6:35
came up, right, with a runner on second with two out, that's not the guy you want up there if you're the Orioles. And of course, Bobby Witt Jr. cashed in on it, and that was the only run that the Royals needed.
6:44
If you are a Baltimore Orioles fan, which I was my entire childhood, uh, growing up in DC where we didn't have a team during my childhood, too, uh, too young for the Senators, too old for the Nationals, uh, so we were all Orioles fans.
6:56
This is a franchise that has n- that has won two postseason games since the Robbie Alomar Orioles of the '90s, and that was the Jeffrey Maier 1996 team and then in 1997.
7:08
They've won two, two postseason games, and the only two were in 2012. So they haven't won a postseason game in over a decade, and this is a very frustrating team because they have the farm system.
7:19
They could've gone for it. They kind of got a free pass last year. People were like, "Oh, they did well. They don't have to do any better than they did." Got swept by the Rangers.
7:27
Uh, and then here they are in, I don't know, maybe they get swept out today, too. Uh, so we lose on the Orioles. Didn't have anything involved in... I, I was, I didn't have a bet on the Mets.
7:35
Brewers, Mets, uh, absolutely looked great offensively. They cr- they double up the Brewers eight to four in that ballgame after trailing two to nothing, and then, uh, they got a, what was it?
7:45
A five run fifth for the Mets after they trailed four to three. Just a good performance by the Mets as they carry over their momentum.
7:53
I did hit the Padres, though, for the two to one, uh, two in one performance yesterday in the betting, because, uh, the Padres behind Michael King. Wow. Seven innings, scoreless ball. Just gave up five hits.
8:04
12 Ks against zero walks. By the way, the Braves struck out 15 times in all. Oof. Jason Adam with the, uh, striking out of the side in the eighth to add to that. 15 Ks for the Braves.
8:16
Again, the travel for the Braves after the doubleheader with the Mets right to San Diego cross country. Uh, that worked out nicely for the Padres, four to nothing.
8:23
So today, uh, and by the way, I have the, so I have those same teams in the series, this best of three wildcard series. I have the Padres, I have the, um, Tigers, and I have the Orioles.
8:36
So two in one on the way there so far. We'll see how it shakes out. Again, we could have four sweeps like we did last year today. We don't know. Um, only play I have today is the Tigers.
8:46
I do have the Tigers, uh, plus 157 with Holton on the mound going up against, uh, uh, again, who's he going up against with the, uh, oh, I'm drawing, I'm drawing a blank now. Hold on. Uh, Tigers taking on the, uh,
9:00
the Astros, and it's gonna be Brown for the Astros. Hunter Brown. Yeah. So Holton is the play for me.
9:04
Plus 157 is too, too much of a number in my opinion, even though Holton's advanced stats not quite as good as his, uh, as his conventional stats, but his conventional stats are otherworldly, so still a good pitcher.
9:17
And plus 157 is way too, uh, good of a bang for the buck not to play that. So that's my play. That's the first of the games again today. Uh, all right.
9:25
Uh, Davante Adams, real quick, because we, I want to get to Borchardt. Davante Adams, uh, Raiders looking to trade him, and there's all kinds of speculation as to where, what would be the most...
9:36
We don't have, we looked for lines, what his next destination could be. Haven't seen a post or game. They don't, they don't exist. Yeah. Um, but here's the speculation in sports talk radio, right?
9:44
And y- we'll just do wordas- we'll just do quick association. Uh, Kansas City Chiefs. Sure. Sounds like a great plan. Yeah, great plan to trade him to a team in your division. [laughs] Yeah. Yeah.
9:53
But this, this is like the overall Twitter reaction yesterday, where I'm like, "I agree with everybody on Twitter." [laughs] Your team would be better with Davante Adams on it. Yeah. That's right. That's right.
10:02
Uh, Chiefs are in their division. Chiefs have won, uh, I don't know if you've heard this, but back-to-back Super Bowls. Probably don't wanna trade him there. Okay.
10:07
So Matt Brown and I, and I had the quick conversation yesterday. Yeah. We're hearing the asking price starts with a second rounder, right?
10:13
Uh, the Chiefs, w- does that, i- are they even in consideration, or what does that asking price start with? It's gotta be way more. For the Chiefs, it might be more than every other team. Yeah, it has.
10:23
But I don't think that, I, the Raiders should not consider that. Yeah, I wouldn't either. By the way, Davante Adams is also on the wrong side of 30, and he may not be the guy we all remember him to be. Yep.
10:32
The Jets is the obvious choice with Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers loves himself some Tay, as he calls him. Mm-hmm.
10:38
Um, but do the Jets, like does that knock Lazard out of the, the, the sort of wide, wide receiver room, if you will? Like he, he's been good. Right. So I don't... Does that improve you tremendously?
10:49
So th- this was, I, I think it's been talked about enough. I think that the connection between those two is so obvious that I would expect the Jets to be involved. Yep. Me too. And they do have the cap room.
10:58
Cap room does come into play into this conversation a little bit, but they have the room to, to bring him in. That, well, Matt Brown and literally, I spoke for four minutes about this yesterday, but he brought that up.
11:08
He's like, "Is, is wide receiver really the problem for the New York Jets, though?" No. No, that's why, that's my point. It's not. Yeah. That's my point, but Aaron Rodgers runs things, so he'll get his way. Right. Yes.
11:17
That, that's- Even if it doesn't make sense. That's why I think there'll be a play. The Bill seems like a really good spot in terms of a need. Um, the Ravens, good spot in terms of a need. Yeah.
11:28
Bill Barnwell is making the case that it should be Washington.
11:31
My, my viewpoint on that is Washington is not a wide receiver away from winning the Super Bowl, and certainly not one on the wrong side of 30, because by the time they get there to that point that they could win a Super Bowl, he'll, he'll be even older.
11:44
So I don't know if I love that, even though Barnwell thinks that's the, uh, the perfect destination. Borchardt on baseball next. The numbers told the story, they always do.
11:59
So one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Hour number two of a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV.
12:12
However you're taking us in this morning, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. Kelly Midlin, producer number nine, so much more than a producer, alongside as well.
12:19
Still to come this hour, uh, we will talk with Jason Weingarten on baseball, get into, uh, more of the MLB postseason as all the game twos, or the games two, however you're supposed to say that, uh, happened today, another quarter- another, uh, quadruple header.
12:33
What a great, what a great week of sports this is.
12:36
Maybe my favorite with, uh, baseball postseason and such volume of baseball postseason during the week, and then of course, uh, football, college and pro, on the weekend.
12:45
Uh, but always a pleasure to have this gentleman on, and thrilled to have him on. He, he's kind enough to come on sort of every quarter.
12:51
I know 17 games now makes it a little janky, uh, but, but roughly every quarter of the NFL season. He also does a couple Megapods a year, one in the, uh, regular season for sure if we can't get him for the postseason.
13:02
It is the creator of DVOA. He was the founder of Football Outsiders, and now is the chief analytics officer, that is the title he's going by, at FTN. It's Aaron Schatz, everybody, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
13:13
How you doing, Aaron? I am good, man. It's been an interesting season, but I'm enjoying it. It, it has been. It's been great. I wanna get into all of it. I...
13:21
First thing I wanna say, 'cause I texted you the other night, I'm watching Sunday Night Football and, uh, was it Sunday Night Football, I believe it was? Yes. Yes.
13:27
And, uh, Chris Collinsworth, uh, references, obviously 'cause Baltimore was playing, he references the fact that Lamar Jackson wa- was just one vote shy of a unanimous MVP, and the way he worded it sounded like he was about to say your name, but then [laughs] he came out with the other person that you voted for, which was Josh Allen.
13:46
Did you think for a moment he was gonna say your name? I thought it was possible. I was like, "Oh look, they're talking about me."
13:52
[laughs] And I thought it was possible that he was gonna say something about, you know, the guy who voted for Josh Allen was an analytics guy or something. Yeah. You know?
14:02
Just to sort of specify what kind of guy voted for Jo- Josh Allen over Lamar Jackson. I got a couple of, you know, notes about that game certainly from people who don't understand how years work, right?
14:14
I mean, the, you know, the vote on MVP for 2023 was based on 2023, not 2024. [laughs] And obviously Josh Allen did not look good on Sunday Night. That's right. It's, [laughs] it's a different year, everybody.
14:26
That's interesting that you got a couple notes about that, people trying to corroborate, uh, things or, or, or actually refute things.
14:33
Uh, let's start with, you came on in July, I believe it was, or, or early August, one, one or the other, here in the off-season.
14:39
And through the FTN Almanac that you, or the FTN Football Preview, you had some stuff to say on the show.
14:45
And I remember you came strong with a bunch of stuff, and I'm curious how you feel about a couple of these things through four games or how it projects moving forward.
14:53
Let's start with the fact that you came on here and you said, "Hey, New Orleans isn't as bad as people think," and you even thought that they had value in the division market.
15:01
How do you feel about that through four games? Yeah, I feel pretty good about that. New Orleans has been better actually than even I expected, certainly.
15:10
Uh, this weekend was not good for the idea of them winning the division, because they lost by one point in a game with a lot of fluky stuff, like the muffed punt recovered for a touchdown, and Tampa Bay won, and Tampa Bay looks stronger than expected.
15:25
But I do think that Atlanta has been a little bit of a disappointment to the people that were really high on them, and I still think that New Orleans has played like the best team in the division. In fact,
15:36
I mean, this is a little tweak because even with opponent adjustments, the opponent adjustments for Carolina are not strong enough for the first two games 'cause Bryce Young was so bad.
15:45
But right now, New Orleans is the fourth best two and two team in DVOA history. Wow. Didn't we have a- Ball- I think, I thought we flashed up another graphic of yours where someone was even higher than them through four.
16:00
Baltimore. Yeah. Baltimore is the second best two and two team in DVOA history.
16:04
So both Baltimore and New Orleans have played much better than their two and two records, and I think people realize that about Baltimore, especially after the win over Buffalo, but not necessarily realize that about New Orleans.
16:18
Makes sense. All right. That's interesting. Best, uh, two of the four best two and two teams- Yeah, when I first put out this table-... in DVOA history...
16:25
New Orleans is missing 'cause when I first put this table online, which is where you got it from, I was missing New Orleans from it. But New Orleans actually slots in fourth ahead of the 2005 Seahawk. Interesting. Okay.
16:36
So another thing you came on here and said... Well, first of all, just referencing Atlanta, I think you came on before they acquired Judon and Simmons. Yes.
16:45
So at the time you're like, "It's the worst defense in the league," but then they made those acquisitions.
16:49
One other thing that sticks out, uh, you said New Eng- 'cause everybody thought, including myself, New England, New England was gonna be god-awful. They have won football games here, though.
16:59
Yeah, they won and they came close to beating Seattle as well. They've been terrible the last two weeks, but I think being terrible against San Francisco, even with San Francisco's injuries, is not, like, a shock.
17:11
Um, they're having a lot of injuries. D- Dugger is out now. Juwan Bentley is out. Uh, David Andrews, the center, now looks like he's out for the season, and their offensive line is horrific.
17:22
I still think the Patriots are more of a 5 and 12 bad than a 2 and 15 bad. Okay. Right? I think they're gonna be competitive against teams like Miami without Tua, and Tennessee, and Jacksonville,
17:36
and I think that they're gonna end up winning five or six games. But with all the injuries that they have, that, that may not be right. Yeah. I made it sound like they won two games.
17:44
They are one and three, and, and I remember before the season you were like, "They could win seven," but now with all the injuries, talking about a five and 12 team. Right.
17:51
Here was- And it was seven before the Judon trade. It was six... I, I had six and a half after the Judon trade. Now it's, you know- Yeah... I'm hoping for five. Here was the last thing. I lied.
17:59
One more thing from the preseason. You also said, 'cause I remember this very clearly, uh, you said Chicago and Indianapolis, Chicago and Indianapolis may be expecting too much from their young quarterbacks right away.
18:11
That might be your best call so far. Yeah, well, what I said was you have to expect a rookie quarterback to be bad, and I put Anthony Richardson in that group because he's had hardly played.
18:25
I said it's probable that one of them will be good, but we have no idea which one. And guess what? Mm-hmm. One of them is good.
18:36
[laughs] It's not the one I would've expected it to be, to be perfectly honest, not because I have anything against Jayden Daniels, but because I was very skeptical of Kliff Kingsbury as the offensive coordinator.
18:47
That's right. But there's no ba- I mean, Jayden Daniels has been absolutely phenomenal, and Chicago and, uh, Denver have disappointed, and Indianapolis only hasn't disappointed because they got a game and a flag.
19:02
All right, we talked about the t- the two two-and-two teams that are sort of historical. You go all the way back to 1979 now with this? Yep. Okay. Um, what a, what an amazing project that this has gotten you all the...
19:13
You actually got play-by-play all the way back to 1979. It's amazing. We'll have 1978 next off-season, yeah. Wow. I thought we hit a wall. You, you found a new sort of way to get these?
19:23
There's a couple of games we can't find from 1978. There's a week one game where because the Pope was in America, the game was preempted- [laughs]... and therefore, like, no one has it on video.
19:35
Uh, we may be able to go before 1978, but we can definitely do '78. Did we used to preempt NFL games for the Pope being in America? Wow. Yeah, something like that. May- um, you know, maybe not in Chicago and St.
19:48
Louis, but in other- Right... markets, and no one in Chicago and St. Louis seems to have taped it, so. All right. Well, let's go to your entire DVOA rankings through week four in the National Football League.
19:58
Who's your best? Who's at the top? Number one right now is the 4 and 0 Minnesota Vikings. I've got my Minnesota little people right here. [laughs] Look at that. There you go. What, what year is that from?
20:11
They're ready for the, they're ready for the season. Minnesota's defense has been number one this year, really good. Uh, okay, Minnesota followed by the Ravens. The Saints are third. Wow. Yeah. Yeah.
20:22
Now, again, like I said, even though I added opponent adjustments this week, the fact is Carolina was so much worse in the first two weeks than the second two weeks that it's r- you're sort of, like, overrating the Chargers and the Saints because they played the Bryce Young Panthers, but the Saints have been really good.
20:39
I'm looking at the rest of this top 10, Seahawks four, Lions five, Bills six, Niners seven. Of course, they had some injuries in some games. Steelers eight, Chiefs nine, Packers 10.
20:49
Let's talk about the Steelers for a second. That's, uh, that's all defense there?
20:53
Yeah, that's one of, uh, the things I was wrong about in the preseason is that we had the Steelers' defense regressing towards the mean, and the Steelers' defense has in fact been really good.
21:03
And Justin Fields has been all right, which is much better than I would've expected given his first three years. He's, he's looks like a real live NFL starting quarterback.
21:13
Not a good one, but an average one, which is much better than he had been in the past. Now, obviously, these are reflections of what's happened already in the first four games.
21:22
Is it your sense that this is something that will s- that will be sustainable for the Pittsburgh Steelers?
21:29
I mean, I, I still feel like we have more knowledge about Justin Fields from three years than we do from four games, and I do feel like he's gonna come back to earth a little bit.
21:39
But, um, you know, I think it's likely that the defense being good... You know, the defense has been good every year, so I think it's probable that I was wrong about the regression and their defense is still good.
21:50
Who's at the very bottom of your list here, Aaron? Uh, the last place team right now is the Cleveland Browns. [exhales] Wow. And, uh, Miami is 31st- Yeah...
22:02
which is a shock, but their defense has been bad and their offense has been terrible except for week one. And Tua was bad, and then Tua got hurt, and it's been terrible- Yeah... really awful since then.
22:15
And then Jacksonville is 30th, New England 29th, and Carolina 28th. The Cleveland thing is fascinating to me 'cause, again, I'm, I'm down on...
22:25
I mean, I, I've said a couple of times this week, I think Miami might end up being the worst team. Um, but Cleveland, I mean, is that just a, a full comprehensive fail? Or wh- what's the, what's the part?
22:36
Is it Deshaun Watson starts that explanation, I guess? Oh, absolutely. It starts with Deshaun, the fact that at this point, we- Deshaun Watson is never gonna be the guy that he was.
22:46
Uh, but also they've had, uh, uh, injuries on the offensive line, and their defense, which was supposed to be among the best in the league, has been very average, which I think we'll regret.
23:00
I think that between the talent they have on defense, even though Myles Garrett is dealing with some injuries, and the fact that Jim Schwartz is good, I think their defense will return to being at least a top 10 defense.
23:12
But their offense is such a black hole that it's not gonna matter. All right. Uh, Aaron is kind enough to stick around for, for a couple segments with us every time when we do the quarterlies. Uh, this is no different.
23:23
He is an awards voter as well, and there's only 50 guys, 50 guys and girls who vote on these things. There's only 50 votes for NFL awards. Um, different ranking systems for each.
23:34
We'll see if we can pry some thoughts out of Aaron on that. Uh, and then, uh, look into if there's a unit or two that has, uh, stood out.
23:42
Uh, all granular from the perspective of DVOA, his proprietary stat, coming back on The Numbers Game. [upbeat music] The Numbers Game VSiN, the sports betting network A Numbers Game has a special offer.
23:59
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24:05
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24:25
Go to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up now. There's V... Uh, that is V-S-I-N.com/subscribe, vsin.com/subscribe. Gil Alexander, uh, Aaron Schatz kind enough to, uh, hang with us for a second segment.
24:38
He again is the Chiefs an- uh, the chief, pardon me, the chief analytics officer at FTN, the creator of DVOA, again, which looks at football, the NFL, on a play-by-play level, every single play, uh, all the way back to 1979 and going back further in history.
24:54
Uh, we should point out again, the '91 Washington Redskins and the 2007 Patriots, depending on how you look at it, with postseason or without, the greatest teams of all time.
25:03
Um, Aaron comes to us, once again, courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line. Before I forget, Aaron, where can people access all your stuff the best? Sure. FTNFantasy.com is the site. We do a lot more than fantasy, though.
25:16
We do DFS optimizers. We do betting suggestions. We have DVOA. My site is FTNFantasy.com/DVOA.
25:26
You'll find all the content there by me, Brian Knowles, Alex Bickel, Scott Spratt, et cetera, that's DVOA related, and then you can expand from there to all the other stuff that we have at FTN. All right.
25:37
Last que- last few questions about, uh, DVOA, and then I wanna get to award stuff. Where do the Washington Commandos fall on your list?
25:45
Yeah, so the Commanders are surprising because we don't have them number one on offense. I actually wrote about this a little bit yesterday. Reasons why EPA stats have them as, like, a legendary almost- Yes...
25:58
offense, and we have them second behind Baltimore. Like, still really good, but, um, you know, there's a few things. For example, they've recovered all of their own fumbles.
26:08
The only interception that Daniels threw had no return. So these things mean more in EPA than they do in DVOA. Uh, they're 30th on defense. So if you look at drive stats, they're kind of amazing.
26:20
Washington has more than eight yards per drive, more than any other offense. [laughs] And they have allowed more than six yards per drive, more than any other defense. Oh, man. It's an amazingly one-sided team.
26:33
[laughs] Oh, man. Uh, which feels like they're the most over team to, for betters. They feel like a, just a natural over team in a way that we've never seen through four games. A good offense and a terrible defense.
26:45
Especially because the rest of the league is down this year. Washington is like, "Here are the points." Yeah, both ways. Uh, we did get one question about that.
26:53
But, oh, before I do this, before we get to the awards, is there a unit then, you just alluded to Baltimore having the best offense, is there a specific unit, offense, defense, special teams, which is, like, an outlier through four weeks?
27:04
I mean, the Vikings defense is, uh, historically pretty good, uh, after, uh, four weeks, and I think the surprising is of the Chargers and Broncos defenses being really top five- Ooh... which is surprising for both.
27:18
Okay. Uh, okay, you are a, you are an awards voter in the National Football League. These are Associated Press, uh, Awards, and you are one of the 50 who votes on these things.
27:27
We have a question from the Numbers Guys via Twitter, who says, "Can you ask Aaron if Jayden Daniels is a play for MVP? Suppose he extrapolates his current numbers over the next 13 weeks."
27:38
Well, if you, if you say it that way- Yeah. Yeah, if, if he continues on this pace, he'll absolutely be among the top five quarterbacks, which means he absolutely is in the discussion for MVP.
27:50
I think, the two things I think, uh, you know, I'm not thinking about who I'm gonna vote for at this point, but I think the two things that stand out from early in the seasons is that Daniels is a real candidate, and that Brock Purdy stands out more than he has even in the past because he's done what he's doing this year despite not getting yards after the catch the way he has in the past, and despite having the injuries that he's been dealing with among other p- members of his offense that he hasn't dealt with in the past, that Purdy looks more real, I think, than he did last year.
28:22
Ladies and gentlemen, that feels like no matter what we say from this point forward, that's gonna be the biggest nugget betting-wise with Aaron here today. That is...
28:29
Again, and Will Hill was on the show talking about Purdy for MVP also. Uh, I was a huge Purdy guy last year. I had a ticket on him.
28:35
Obviously, that blew up in flames with the Ravens game, but Brock Purdy looks better this year. Like, that game, the game they lost to the Rams, he looked spectacular in defeat.
28:47
Uh, Brock Purdy right now still at 16 to 1 over at DraftKings for MVP. Now, let me just say this. Let me, let me get this clarified too because we're gonna have m- many people asking about this. You're a voter.
28:56
You know how this goes down. MVP is, unless somebody does something ridiculous at another position, is, is generally a quarterback award, right? And- Unless they change the, the, the name of it, yeah...
29:09
and Offensive Player of the Year is the depository for anybody else who's not a quarterback on offense? That's how I vote, yes. That's how you vote, okay.
29:18
Um, what about Comeback Player of the Year, which obviously you, you were kind enough to come on when you were on, uh, I think it was Super Bowl week, where you told us, "Hey, this language is going to change for Comeback Player of the Year," and it did right after that.
29:32
Um, could Damar Hamlin be considered for that this year, given the new language? Uh, that's an interesting question because he came back last year.
29:45
The actual comeback from the injury was last year, but this year he's playing. So I think no, because the comeback from the injury was last year. He would've been considered last year But I don't know.
29:59
It's an interesting question because he barely played last year Right, and, and- Like, he played, but he barely played But the language is, "Has to have missed games because of," dot, dot, dot, right?
30:10
He has the ultimate- Yeah, but Darnold, uh, I'm sorry, but those Darnold odds are from people who don't understand the new- Oh, let-... the new, uh- Let's throw that up again on the screen.
30:19
This is what Aaron's referring to. What he's referring to is for Comeback Player of the Year right now, Aaron Rodgers is the short shot at plus 140. Sam Darnold is right behind him at plus 250.
30:27
So you're saying no chance for a guy like Darnold? If, if we all follow what the AP told us to follow, then Darnold is not... Darnold is the old way, the like, oh, here's the Most Improved Player. Darnold wasn't injured
30:42
like Rodgers, and Burrow, and Kyler Murray, and Dobbins, and Cousins, and so many of the players on this list were injured. Like, Darnold is just coming back from being with the Jets, uh, you know?
30:54
[laughs] How we like to say it on this show is, Aaron, is, uh, he's just coming back from sucking. That's how we usually say it in sort of a flippant way, but that is, that, there's, there's wisdom in that, right?
31:03
So that is no longer... So that, that's the thing. The NBA has, their award is called Most Improved. This is not that any way, and there should be no bad interpretation of that. Yeah.
31:16
We've been told this year that it should be based on a player who comes back from an injury or some other, you know, off-field issue or something like that.
31:26
It's not for Most Improved Player who just happened to be bad at his previous stop. And by the way, Darnold wasn't bad at his last two stops. He wasn't bad in San Francisco. He wasn't bad in Carolina.
31:36
He was bad years ago in, the Jets. Okay, let's, and I know, and let me just caveat, I know this is only four games. You haven't even thought about awards.
31:46
Um, but I'm just gonna sort of just, uh, like, you know, pry a little bit on this and just try to get into your brain.
31:52
If the a- if it was now, through a, you know, roughly a quarter, just shy of a quarter of the NFL season, and we're thinking about Offensive Player of the Year, what does your instinct tell you?
32:02
That who, who would that be? Oh, golly. I don't know. Ka- Kamara? Um- Kamara maybe? Saquon? No, Kamara takes a huge hit from opponent adjustments. Oh, okay. Um, S- Saquon may- Who's been the top receiver this year?
32:17
Nico Collins? Nico Collins, yeah. Y- you know, I mean, you know, maybe I'll be a, a goofball and vote for Trent Williams if somebody needs to vote for, you know- Oh...
32:29
having one of the great over-35 seasons of all time right now. Okay, then- Trent Williams... let's talk about that. Uh, you just, you just said that would be you being a goofball.
32:38
Would there be enough goofballs in the group of 50 to make something like that actually happen? I doubt it. Yeah. Yeah, 'cause we, we had one of our favorite guests who's coming up, Jason Weingarten, for a whole year.
32:50
Who was the, who was the lineman on the Giants who, who, who had cancer and came back? And for a whole year he was like, "Oh, N- oh, Gates." Was it Nick Gates? Was that his name? Yeah.
32:58
Brock for Comeback Player of the Year. Yeah Yeah, so- He was like going crazy about that... they actually put him at Player of the Year.
33:02
And we were like, yeah, and we're like, "No, Jason, there's not gonna be enough people." Um, okay, same, same question for Defensive Player of the Year. Like, who has stood out through four weeks to you?
33:10
Oh, I honestly don't. Don't know. Okay. No. I've seen some stats about Patrick Surtain, but I haven't had a chance to run my own stats about Patrick Surtain to feel like I would do him.
33:20
Fred Warner, uh, I think has stood out. Um, I, you know, it's, I ha- really haven't been thinking about this stuff very- Okay. All right.
33:29
Just gonna, we, we only have 60 seconds, so I'm just gonna p- I'm just gonna push one last time, though. I mean, there's one that's obvious, which is Jaden Daniels, right?
33:35
Jaden D- Jaden Daniels for [clears throat] Offensive Rookie of the Year is, is, is the obvious one. If we voted today- Yeah... I would have to do a ton of research on every award, but- But one.
33:46
You wouldn't even have to worry about that one. That's right. You- No, that's not true. Uh, Assistant Coach of the Year would go to Brian Flores. Who would be the Coach of the Year to you?
33:53
[sighs] I would lean O'Connell, but I don't know. There's, there's multiple good ones. Yeah. Co- Coordinator of the Year, though, Flores is running away with right now.
34:05
So much more football to be played, but, but nice of you to sort of just, uh, indulge us on that [clears throat] because we are betters after all, and so we're curious, uh, what one of the minds of, uh, one of the voters is, and yours is always a generous one, Aaron, and we always appreciate it.
34:21
@ashots_NFL on Twitter? It's just @ashotsNFL, no underscore. No underscore. A Shots NFL, S-C-H-A-T-Z. Uh, and again, FTN, check out all his stuff at, uh, on his Twitter. And again, the, uh, the website again, Aaron, is?
34:38
Is ftnfantasy.com. And, uh, so yeah, Shanah Tovah to you, my friend. Happy New Year, sir. Thank you, Aaron. Jason Weingarten on the other side.
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