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Oct 30, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | October 30, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | October 30, 2024
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Transcript
0:00
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0:24
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN.
0:34
[upbeat music] It's the Wednesday edition of a Numbers Game here on VSiN. Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. Kelly Bidlin on the desk with me as always.
0:45
If you weren't here with us on Monday, Gil out east dealing with the loss of his mother. Any kind messages you want to send to him, @bettingthebook on the Twitter machine. Greatly appreciated as always.
0:55
Got a awesome show here. Jonathan Von Tobel gonna come in and JVT will talk just about anything with us, but I think a little- Oh, yes he will...
1:01
but I think, you know, some NBA here early on, getting his thoughts on what's going on. Don't you think that's, like, what the people want? Oh, I think so. Yes, from our senior NBA analyst, absolutely.
1:10
'Cause everybody talks the NFL. [laughs] We'll ask him, like, if he's got a hot play or something, but I mean, the NBA is where it's at.
1:15
Yeah, he's, you know, he's usually got a Mountain West Conference, uh, football play- Something-... that's jumping out to him as well...
1:20
yes So yeah, we, we usually go, uh, we circle around everything with JVT when he's on. And we were, it was the TBD, but we do in fact get Mark Borchardt today because- That's right... baseball did extend.
1:30
And of course, Kelly, that is where we kind of kick things off here. World Series does at least go to game number five.
1:39
I was sitting there, and after Freddie Freeman hit that [laughs] home run, I'm going, "You've got to be kidding me."
1:46
And instead, the Yankees said, "No, we're going to go ahead and make you guys play a fifth game at the very least."
1:53
I was proud to see that there were only a handful of empty seats in the, in the, uh [laughs]- [laughs]... expensive seats.
1:58
I'm like going, "Guys, how did you spend tens of thousands of dollars," most likely, I, I don't know exactly what they were going for, and get that done?
2:05
But look, this was the score got out of hand later on in the inning, i- in, in the game, so don't let it completely fool you. It wasn't just an absolute trucking there for a while.
2:15
It did look like, oh, okay, well, the Dodgers might fight back here and, and, and make, make sure that this thing gets swept. But instead, Kelly, we, uh, we end up going to game five.
2:23
It's gonna be Flaherty versus Cole, and I think that there is at least a tiny bit of hope out there for Yankee fan because you do get Gerrit Cole taking the hill for you at home here against, against Flaherty, who's, who's, like, did have a good game one in the World Series, but certainly has been up and down this year.
2:41
Yeah, I think it was, uh, it was interesting to watch last night. I mean, a- Yankees, it feels like, like you're talking about with Gerrit Cole going tonight, right back in this, uh, conversation, uh, being down 3-1.
2:51
We did, was interesting, we talked about it on the show yesterday- Mm... to see the Dodgers take the approach with the pitchers that they did. Yeah. Kind of punted on it. Went with their B t- Yeah...
2:58
went with their B squad. Yeah, it was- Mm... I mean, if something as much as you, you, I, and Paul even discussed it yesterday, I didn't really think we were gonna see it like that- Yeah... and then they really did.
3:08
So, uh, really, really exciting, uh, game tonight, I think, as both of these squads are kind of, you know, r- res- uh, reset, ready to go. And Shohei went off and got a hit. Yeah. Shohei went off and got a hit.
3:18
The, uh, the history of, of me betting unders on- You, you-... player props with Dodgers in the playoffs with dislocated shoulders. Yes.
3:27
Apparent- listen, if you, if you dislocate your shoulder, DM Kelly Bidlin to bet against you and you will, you will break the slump. You'll get a hit.
3:33
And Sho- I, as soon as I saw it go off the bat, I'm like, "Yeah, that's it." [laughs] I was like, "Yeah, yeah, yeah." The worst is I might do it again tonight, Matt.
3:40
[laughs] Because like, like, every other time you see him swinging, you're like, "This guy's in pain. He's holding his arm when he's running to first."
3:47
It was, I mean- How, how am I not supposed to bet an under on a guy holding his arm while he's running to first? Th- this is true. This is true.
3:54
I mean, and, and, and like, as he's, like, coming back into the locker room, I mean, into the, into the dugout, like, full on pressing it- This is right...
4:00
like pressing it against himself, you know, so that it doesn't move. I did have to look that up yesterday. For everybody that wanted to know, that was, uh, Bellinger in 2020 in the NLCS, uh, same thing.
4:11
That he, remember he hurt it in the celebration, and then like came back the game after and, uh, bet the under. Did not work out then.
4:15
We get a Torres homer, we get a Volpe homer, we get a Wells homer, the bats alive at least a little bit there for the Yankees. That said, notice I didn't say a Judge homer.
4:25
He did get a hit in the game, so that is something to get excited about. We also had, as you see if you're watching at home- Ugh, these guys. [laughs] I, they should be banned from every stadium for life, right?
4:36
Uh, yeah, probably. [laughs] I mean, because you're grabbing a dude's wrist. So- I mean, like, this is something that I, I understand people are gonna say, "Dude, don't be old man and, and overreact."
4:45
But okay, had they gone too overboard, you easily could have hurt his, Mookie Betts' wrist. Oh, 100%.
4:52
I, I, I kind of fully believe though, Matt, uh, th- this guy right here, I feel like he just had one too many and, and didn't really know how to act at a baseball game or what he was doing.
5:02
It was his friend that was more of a problem, it felt like afterward, doing the whole, like- 'Cause he jump- for one, he jumped in, which like- Right... it's like, what are you doing?
5:10
Like, your friend has already decided to be the idiot. You don't have to then make the choice to be idiot number two. And then what, he was trying to make the point that, like, this is their territory?
5:18
Like, you're not allowed to go into the stands? It was like, "No, man." Like, "What are you talking about?" Yeah, and I mean, you can see, yeah, it's r- the wrist is not bent all that much or whatever.
5:26
But again, this is just, just because it didn't, just because it didn't hurt him doesn't mean we should just give it a pass. Right, exactly. You know what I'm saying? Yep.
5:33
Like, we have to think about what, what could have happened had he, what if he'd have jumped up and, and, and, and gotten caught kind of like up there or something? Mm-hmm.
5:40
Like, I mean, there's all kinds of things that could have gone wrong in all this. Neither here nor there, we do get game number five.
5:46
And in game number five right now, we're looking at about -148 Gerrit Cole at home as the favorite, +124 with the Dodgers and Flaherty on the, uh, uh, uh, as, uh, visitors there.
6:00
Eight and a half is our total in this one. Of course, no trouble getting over the eight and a half last night. Flaherty, 3.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 29.9% K rate and just a 6% walk rate.
6:12
In the regular season, and that was backed up by a flat 3 xFIP. Four postseason starts though, 4.95 xFIP, a 9% walk rate, a 1.35 WHIP.
6:23
And as I mentioned, Kelly, he did have a good World Series Game 1, in which he went five and a third and, and didn't, and, and cade six. But that was on extra rest.
6:31
And when we kind of look at him when he's on normal rest, we've seen his velocity down. I don't know if it's just his arm getting tired, a little fatigued. He's never really played this deep into a season before.
6:40
Or if it's just, you know, again, something going on with him physically. We know there's been at least a little bit of a hamstring thing going on with Flaherty as well.
6:46
So I do wonder how sharp he's going to be here, 'cause this is a normal rest start- Right... not an extended rest start. And so as good as he looked in game one, we have to remember that that was on extra days. Mm-hmm.
6:57
Yeah, absolutely. Uh, it- it's interesting. I do think that I will be, uh, looking back at the Dodgers money line again today, and, uh, a- and Ohtani under hits. I already wrote it down.
7:06
Uh, Cole, four po- postseason starts as well. He hasn't been really as sharp as he [laughs] was in the, in the regular season as well. But, uh, advantage Cole for sure here for me in this one.
7:16
It might take the Dodgers, uh, getting over there to game number six if they wanna try and get this thing done. Let's head over to the NFL and some very big news.
7:25
And this was something you and I speculated right here on this program yesterday, was, you know, it seems like to me that maybe they're going to go to Anthony Richards- I mean, they're gonna go to Joe Flacco instead of Anthony Richardson, because
7:39
I think they think that they can make the playoffs, and I think that they think that... And, and they should think that. I mean- Yeah... wins are banked, right? Yep. I mean, that, that's in there.
7:46
But they should think that they can make the playoffs. And I think they think that Joe Flacco gives them a better chance to get there. Well, that is exactly what ended up happening.
7:54
And Anthony Richardson has been benched. It is going to move to Joe Flacco. And this is one of those things, Kelly, I heard a lot of people talking, "Man, is this too soon? How can you make this decision so quickly?
8:06
Is this fair?" What do you mean, is it fair? They think, they think they can make the playoffs this year. Mm-hmm. Yeah. And they wanna put the guy out there.
8:13
You can still go back into the Anthony Richardson experiment if you want to w- in two different ways. One, later on in the season, should this whole deal of trying to make the playoffs doesn't pan out- Yeah...
8:22
then you do whatever, put him back out there for the last however many games, and you don't see it then. Or you restart and go again next year.
8:28
But you can't just let it go away just because you're going, "Well, we invested a first-round pick in this guy, so we have to just sit there and let him turn over and be inaccurate and not make the playoffs."
8:37
Well, no, man, that's not fair to your fans, that's not fair to the rest of the locker room, that's not fair to everybody. And of course, him benching himself certainly didn't help the cause. Yeah, I think that's, uh...
8:45
I, I, mean, look, I think you hit on a lot, most of the pro-Flacco reasons. I don't think it's easy. I will circle back to what I said yesterday. I just, I think that they're...
8:53
Anybody jumping to conclusion of, "Well, you should do this or that with this situation," I think it's tough. I understand what you're saying with the playoffs. And, and they're...
9:00
I, I think it's pro- it's probably the right move and what I would go with given the team's situation, given that you have Flacco there, and we saw what he did just a year ago with the Cleveland Browns.
9:08
But I, you know, I think it's easy for some of us to say Anthony Richardson can learn from a guy like that sitting on the bench. I don't know that.
9:14
For a guy that's played so little in college and the NFL now, maybe he just needs live game reps. I don't know. Maybe this does set him back a little bit.
9:22
And I, I, I just, I'm not ready to g- completely give up on the kid yet. So I think it's- Yeah... it, it's tough, it's tough judging what's best for your team, especially in the middle of the season, right?
9:32
The dead middle of the season, to turn your attention to Joe Flacco in a playoff, uh, playoff chase, or to continue to develop this r- young quarterback.
9:40
Especially in a town and a team that has struggled to find who's that next guy since Andrew Luck. Yeah.
9:47
And well, I think one thing we can look at though is the market has spoken, because they think that it is more likely that the Colts win a game or at least keep the game closer with Joe Flacco than Anthony Richardson, because all of the s- this opened six and a half.
10:02
Yep. All of those got eaten up, and then all of the sixes eaten up as well. The five and a halfs now starting to go away as well. And we are down to a flat five at a few different books out there in this one, Kelly.
10:14
So the money coming in on the Colts when they officially make the move to Flacco.
10:19
And listen, just from strictly from a betting standpoint, not from a, our opinion on whether or not they should or should not have made the move with Richardson because of his development and stuff like that.
10:28
From a strictly betting standpoint, Flacco today under center gives them a better chance to win. 100%. And so that's why the m- the market is moving the way that it is.
10:37
Yeah, I'm a little surpris- I mean, d- don't get me wrong, coming, you know, six and a half, coming off six and a half six, those are key numbers in the NFL- Yeah... to move through.
10:45
I'm actually surprised it didn't move maybe, uh, another half point or a point. I, I guess I was expecting to see fours or four and a halfs, uh, on that line. Well, we might not be done, buddy.
10:52
Yeah, we might not be done. We might, we, we- We might not be done. [laughs] We might not be done in all of this, my friend. So we'll figure out how that's going to go. The, uh, Ravens do trade for Deontay Johnson.
11:00
Everybody knew that he was going to be on the move. The two big names were Deontay Johnson, Chris Kirk. Christian Kirk ends up getting hurt and out for the season. So Deontay Johnson was the guy that was left.
11:09
He was the one big name to go. And so, uh, maybe a little surprising that it's the Ravens, 'cause there were teams out there that were wide receiver, super wide receiver needy. Yeah.
11:19
And it ends up going to a team that sure didn't have, I guess, the alpha one. If you... I don't know if you consider Zay Flowers kind of an alpha one.
11:26
But now you kind of have a one-A, one-B situation there for the Ravens, and I, I think it definitely makes them more dangerous. Yeah, it do. I mean, look, adding weapons, right?
11:34
I think I f- I, I feel like I've heard a lot of talk of like, "Hey, is this gonna... Are they gonna be tempted to throw too many wide receivers [laughs] on the field?" And having too many weapons is a good problem.
11:42
The Ravens- Yeah... will figure that out. I trust John Harbaugh. This is, uh... I'm with you. I was a little surprised though to see it wasn't- Yeah... Baltimore yesterday. Yeah, Baltimore was...
11:49
I know they were on the list, Kelly. But I didn't think that they were gonna be high on the list. And then the trade w- the trade itself was just kind of weird, right? Like Carolina. Yeah. Yeah.
11:58
When we come back, we're gonna get through some more NFL news, see how those are affecting the markets out there, see if it's anything that you want to get into your account.
12:05
And also take a look at what happened in the association last night, some interesting things there as well. Get Kelly's opinion when we come back here on The Numbers Game.
12:22
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. It is a numbers game here on VSiN on a Wednesday. Matt Brown in for Gil Alexander. Kelly Midland Bidlin on the... Man, you don't middle anymore.
12:37
We gotta get you a new nickname. Yeah, not as much. No. Not as much. We ain't doing a live betting show as often, you know? Yeah, it was like, it was so good, it was...
12:44
Midland Bidlin just rolled off of the tongue, and then- I tip the cap to Brady Cannon on that one. That was, that was all his, yeah. And now you just, and now you just don't, uh, you don't middle anymore. Just that guy.
12:52
Just that guy who just bets flat sides on the NBA. You're just, you're just Bidlin now. Just Bidlin. He's just- Boring Bidlin. He's just... [laughs] Kelly Boring Bidlin. That's the way we'll go with all of that.
13:02
Well, this guy that we are about to talk to is not boring. You've seen him here on the network. He is also our senior NBA analyst at me- meet JBT over on the Twitter machine. He is Jonathan Vontobel.
13:12
How you doing, buddy? Uh, I'm good. I, I'm, I'm... Yeah, I'm good. I don't know what I was gonna say. I'm good. [laughs] Yeah, well, you, you were gonna say like, "Yeah, Kelly is boring."
13:20
[laughs] But it's fi- you don't have to do that. No, I'm- You don't have to pile on. It's okay. I'll, I'll actually, I'll, I'll pre- I... I'm distracted because I was doing the unprofessional thing.
13:27
I'm writing while you were talking to me, so I was trying to answer, and I was like, "I should probably just stop writing- [laughs]... and just do this hit," so yeah. We always peel the curtain back here, yeah?
13:35
[laughs] Yeah. If anyone wonders why there's like a weird, like, Midland Bidlin in the middle of his ar- NBA article today- That's why [laughs]...
13:41
it's like, 'cause like you say, "Oh, man, I'm trying to do three things at once," and so sorry about all of that.
13:46
So l- let's get into, before we get into the games that you're interested in this evening, a topic we didn't get to last segment, and it's even better that we just carry it over into this one to get both of y'all's thoughts.
13:54
But w- what is your whole take on this Joel Embiid thing, and what should, if anything, bettors take from it? Yeah, I, I look... I don't know.
14:04
I mean, I think bettors should take away, like look, some of these adjusted win totals that are still up, um, I, I would still be very much looking to potentially play these under if we're still...
14:12
I haven't checked for a few days, so these might be gone.
14:13
But if we're still talking in the range of like 50 and a half or so, I still think that might be worth looking, 'cause you just don't know how often he's going to play.
14:20
Now, I always throw out the caveat that I think Paul George is somewhat of an unlucky case, right? Because Paul George, I mean, it's a hyperextended knee. You can't really help anything like that.
14:29
And if you look at his history with the Clippers, it's been a lot of that, right? Some hard contact injuries that have led to some unfortunate events.
14:36
And last year he did play his most games in a uniform for the Los Angeles Clippers. So maybe there's something to Paul George being healthy and available. But I do think Joel Embiid, we know what's gonna happen here.
14:45
They're going to willingly hold him out.
14:47
The rumblings and rumors of him having a potential degen- degenerative knee issue, uh, weight loss rumors that they're trying to help with the said knee, having issues potentially with diet.
14:55
Whatever it is, you know, I think that they're going to willingly keep him out so that he can be available for a post-season run. And if that means that you're the three or the four seed, then so be it.
15:05
Because having him ready and available and maybe having to go on the road in an Eastern Conference semifinals or an Eastern Conference finals is much more important than getting as many regular season games as you can, getting a top seed, and maybe risking not having him available.
15:17
So I think that's really the strategy. It's just, look, some of these win totals, adjusted win totals, you jumped on them early. I think you're feeling relatively good about where you're at.
15:25
Yeah, I think if you're, uh... Th- this is a good situation, too, John. I think if you ever wonder betting the NBA, are these teams lying to me, or are they being real on injury reports?
15:34
Well, the NBA just basically called out the Philadelphia 76ers yesterday. [laughs] So that is, uh... Keep that in mind as you're handicapping, uh, your way through the NBA season.
15:41
Uh, Kelly, I mean, I brought this up to Matt the other day. They do lie to you all the time. Yeah. And we have great examples in the post-season.
15:47
You know, everybody remembers LeBron, right, after getting swept by the Warriors, where he comes out with a hand brace, like, "Oh, yeah, no, I broke my hand after game one. We just didn't tell you."
15:53
The one that I always love that is often forgotten is Damian Lillard in the Western Conference finals against the Warriors comes out after they get swept and goes, "Oh, no, I separated my ribs actually in game one."
16:02
[laughs] Like, they lie all the time about these things, and that transpires in the regular season as well. Yeah, I mean, this Embiid story's a perfect example.
16:09
I, I don't really understand why Philadelphia would rather have, like, their fans think that Embiid- Mm-hmm... is just kind of like lazy and doesn't wanna play instead of as- going through a chronic knee injury.
16:17
Like, that's what it is. Like, it's kind of understandable. It sucks. Yep. But it, it is what it is. Um, all right, a bunch of games tonight. Full slate. I got nothing in the account yet.
16:25
Wanna run through a few that you're looking at with you. Hawks and Wizards, uh, what are you looking at here tonight? So big revenge spot for Atlanta, right?
16:31
They, they get bombed out by the Wizards a couple nights ago on Monday. Wizards go, I think, 21 to 44 from three-point range.
16:38
So, you know, you can kind of expect, eh, some regular, uh, reg- regression to the mean, maybe a little bit of revenge on the mind. Atlanta's in a pretty good spot.
16:44
We see the market typically moving the direction of Atlanta. But for me, it's not about the side. To me, I'm gonna go player prop here. Kyle Kuzma's not gonna play today. He is out.
16:51
He tweaked a groin at the end of that win over Atlanta. He's not gonna play, and so what does that mean for everybody else? Well, I think it opens up the door for Alexander Saar.
16:58
Saar's been actually a pretty good statistical rebounder by percentage. Eight percent of his team's missed shots, or his individual offensive rebounding rate at 8%. His defensive rebounding rate at 20.8%.
17:08
And with Kyle Kuzma not out there, uh, you're going to be in a position, as the team's third leading rebounder, to have a lot more boards come your way. And you would assume a minutes increase.
17:16
We've steadily seen his minutes for each of the three games, Kelly, go up. And so with Kuzma not out there, with the need to attack the glass, against a bad rebounding team, too, by the way.
17:24
The Hawks have been a pretty below average team across the board through the early portion of the season in terms of rebounding. I think Saar's gonna have plenty of opportunities.
17:30
We're starting to see this market get to like seven and a half in a couple of spots for his rebounds. So there's still a couple of over six and a half and minus 128 available for rebounds for Alexander Saar.
17:39
That's why I'm gonna attack it here. I think the side makes sense for Atlanta, but I'm gonna go player prop and then have Saar go over his rebounding number tonight.
17:45
Raptors and the Hornets currently six and a half in favor of the Hornets. 225, 225 and a half is our total in that one. What you like? So we're gonna go another player prop here, and this is also tied to injury.
17:57
Scotty Barnes is not gonna play. And so you look at the t- the Raptors' injury report right now, Matt, and it's big. And I think they're really willing to take some Ls- [laughs]...
18:06
if they can go out there and get Cooper Flagg. Uh, as we have so astutely put it, I really like it, go in the pooper for Cooper is- [laughs]... I think the slogan that a lot of these teams are gonna have.
18:15
But look, you don't have Immanuel Quickley, or he is doubtful. He's probably not gonna play. As I mentioned, Barnes is out. Kelly Olynyk is out. Bruce Brown's out.
18:21
You really don't have that much in terms of ball handling, shot creation for Toronto. So I think this offense is really gonna run through RJ Barrett.
18:28
So if you look at Barrett, he played his first game the other night against Denver, had 20 points, uh, five rebounds, three assists. His points, rebounds, and assist prop for tonight is about 32 and a half.
18:37
You can still find minus 110 out there on the over.
18:39
I think this is gonna be a high-volume game for RJ Barrett against a Hornets team that's still pretty below average in defensive rating, doesn't have a real true wing defender to throw at him that they're gonna feel confident in a matchup like that.
18:49
I think this is gonna be high workload for RJ Barrett. I'm comfortable going over points, rebounds, and assists in a game that I think he's gonna have a lot on his shoulders. Yeah, I'll, uh, I like that play.
18:57
I think I'm gonna be laying it with the Hornets tonight. I know what you're talking about- Yeah... JVT. Uh, it's a team that you and I are both high on. Yes, that, that, that is a, uh, to a degree, right?
19:05
It's not like they're the best team in the Eastern Conference, and l- laying six points with them isn't all that comfortable. But like you said- Yeah... no Quickley, uh, no Barnes.
19:13
Like, that is major problems for a Raptors team that's already depleted. Um, good. Next game up, I'm glad I get this one because I texted JVT last night. I said, "Man, I'm looking at, uh, Wednesday's card.
19:22
I don't really like all that much. What, uh, anything jumping out to you?" And JVT responded with a big old Cleveland. Let's go. Yeah, man, I thi- look, I like this Cleveland team.
19:32
Kelly, they're 4 and 0 against the spread so far this season. They're unbeaten. I've bet on them in three of the four games. I think this team is the real deal.
19:39
I think they are going to be a very good regular season team, and there are few teams that I think are equipped to handle what the Los Angeles Lakers are gonna throw at you in terms of size and athleticism, right?
19:47
You have LeBron James. You have Anthony Davis. Well, I can at least combat you with Evan Mobley and, of course, Jarrett Allen, and feel somewhat comfortable in our matchups there.
19:55
D'Angelo Russell is questionable to play. I think it's a little bit of back soreness. We'll see if he goes out there.
19:59
But even then, when you look at the one-to-one matchup, you're pretty comfortable that neither one of Austin Reaves and/or D'Angelo Russell is going to shut down the combo of Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell.
20:09
And of course, you got Dean Wade there, 6'9" at small forward, can space the floor, can add some rebounding protection and, of course, go up with Rui Hachimura.
20:15
And then you look at the bench and I think there's a pretty strong edge here for Cleveland. I just, I like this Cavs team a lot, and I made it a point to back them consistently at the beginning of the year.
20:24
So I'm not gonna back off of this. We saw this at some spots open three and a half, get up to five. It's starting to trickle back down to four and a half, probably on news that Russell is potentially going to play.
20:32
So I'm gonna lay this with Cleveland. I would say anybody who does want to play it, though, just sit back. Like, you can maybe lay four once Russell is officially active. We'll see if that's the case.
20:40
I still think five is playable. But I think Cleveland at home, again, I'm just gonna continue to ride this train with the Cavaliers. I think they're an underrated team and one of the best ones out there.
20:48
4-0 ATS with about a plus 10.9 cover margin to this point of the year. Talking to our guy, Jonathan Von Tobel, senior NBA betting analyst. Uh, look, it's a, it's a rough go for New York sports fans right now.
20:58
The Yankees are on the brink. You got the Giants. You got the Jets. But, hey, what about the Knicks? The Knicks and the Heat tonight. One and a half point favorites are the Knicks on the road.
21:08
214 and a half to 215 and a half is the total. What you see here? Yeah, so first off, injury report is gonna be important because the Knicks are already a pretty thin team. Josh Hart popped up.
21:17
He is questionable to play. So you're gonna wanna see if he's gonna be out there, 'cause as we know, Achiu was already out, Mitch Robinson's already out. And that's kind of where you start here, right?
21:24
Because you look at this from a bench perspective and you have Miami at the very least. You've got Jaime Jaquez. You've got Duncan Robinson.
21:31
Uh, you've got Josh Richardson and Alec Burks, like a bench that you can kind of trust here to give you some depth.
21:36
And then after Miles McBride, it really drops off for the New York Knicks, and that's especially if you're talking about, um, Josh Hart not being available. So I think the Heat are in a pretty live spot here at home.
21:46
The Knicks are kind of the antithesis of Cleveland for me. I've been looking to play against them somewhat often here. Uh, used the Celtics, used the Cavaliers, played on them in a good spot against Indiana.
21:56
But I think overall that they're a team I'm looking to go up against. So for me, I'm gonna play Miami. It's catch- like, like you mentioned, they're catching two, but it's starting to trickle back down to one and a half.
22:04
Think a money line play here for the Heat at home is very much worth it. You can find him here on the network all over the place. His great work over at vsin.com as well, @meJVT over on the Twitter machine.
22:15
He is the one, the only Jonathan Von Tobel. Thanks for the time, buddy. Appreciate it. Yeah, guys, of course. Anytime. Thank you for having me.
22:22
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23:07
[upbeat music] The numbers tell the story. They always do.
23:25
One of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on Vsin. [upbeat music] A numbers game here on a Wednesday. Matt Brown, Kelly Biblin.
23:38
I'm in for Gil here, guys, uh, for the rest of the week. So deal with it, okay? [laughs] Deal with it. I'm gonna have... We're having some fun here, Kelly Biblin. Yeah.
23:45
Talking a little bit of, uh, you know, not only the, the win total Wednesday that we just did and some of the games and some of the teams and all the things that are going on with all of that, and now a little bit later we'll get to our tiers as well, which I think will be interesting because I don't know how much of our stuff overlaps.
24:00
But what it comes down to is it's not so much I think the bottom or the top, everything in the middle is where it gets really interesting. It's always, I mean, any sport, right?
24:08
That's always the, the interesting part during the season. It is those teams that are right in the middle and, yeah, there's...
24:14
It's amazing we're eight weeks through the NFL season, there are certain teams that I have no idea about still. Yeah. Well, we will get to all of that shortly.
24:21
But fortunately, we have a topic to talk about here with our next guest. He is Mark Borchert, pro Major League Baseball bettor @BaseWinner over on the Twitter machine. Mark, thanks for joining us.
24:31
We were sitting here talking after the show yesterday, and we're like, Kelly's like, "Well, I, I guess this is kind of a TBD." [laughs] "We'll have to see how the, how the night goes." Well, that's good.
24:40
No, no, like I, I can always make a spot start for- [laughs]... for you guys, in any ti- You know, Matt, it brings up a good point because I, I love how you do the, the football props, and I haven't...
24:50
Like, I've been so far away from, from football, but I might be diving into it here in the next. But I, I enjoy your breakdown. Are you doing a show, like a, like a regular show on the, on the week?
24:59
You used to do it on the weekend, right? Yeah. So we're, we're, me and, uh, Mike Somich on the weekends, on Saturdays we do the full game breakdowns with all the different stuff like that.
25:07
So go in, probably on podcast, I assume, Kelly. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You know, yeah, yeah. Come in where- We can post it... wherever your podcasts are, are, are as well.
25:14
So, uh, yeah, on, on Saturdays get all that, uh, breaking down here on the network as well. So looking forward to it. Uh, Mark, last night, I mean, it was, it was a deal where I know everyone saw the stats.
25:26
24 different times it had gone to 3-0, 21 different times it had been a sweep.
25:30
Just, you know, your, your gut feeling heading into last night, did you think the Yankees had it in them, or did you think it was just kind of this team of destiny thing for, for the Dodgers who's just gonna get it done?
25:41
Well, to, well, to be precise, I had it priced at, like, -130. I, I wasn't... I'm not a huge fan of, of Hill. Uh, you could say that Luis Hill- Mm...
25:49
his Achilles heel is his walk rate, and I thought the Dodgers would be able to turn that into runs and, and to an extent they did.
25:56
Uh, but what a great game to, to watch if you're a Yankees fan or if you're just a fan of the game.
26:00
Uh, you know, it comes down to, you know, yesterday, uh, trying to price the series out and, and this is one s- Matt, this one's pretty easy to price 'cause I think that there's not much argument that it's about a 50/50 deal.
26:13
So if you're looking at 50/50, you know, it's pretty much.5 to the fourth power, uh, as far as the, the Yankees coming back, so about a 6% chance, uh, to, to win the series, and then about a 50% chance, uh, you know, if you look at the overall numbers for the team, uh, i- in each game.
26:31
And then it cha- you know, it changes a little bit, uh, game to game. Uh, for example, I liked the Dodgers yesterday a little bit, uh, but, but today it's, it's more of a pick 'em and, and then I...
26:41
Even game six would be more of a pick 'em as well.
26:44
So, um, you know, I th- I think that overall, like, the market's priced pretty much where it needs to be from a, uh, you know, series standpoint, a series game standpoint.
26:55
Uh, there was one that I saw a little bit of value on. I think there's, like, a 20 for me.
26:59
I got about a 25% chance of the thing going seven, uh, which is, like, I th- I don't know, I think it was, like, a f- plus, uh, 300, and, uh, I think you could get a little bit better than, like, a plus 325 at, at some places, Matt.
27:14
So Mark, this game tonight, Jack Flaherty, Gerrit Cole. We're sitting about minus 148-ish, 150-ish, something like that on the Yankees at home, plus 125-ish, depending on where you're looking there.
27:24
Dodgers on the road, eight and a half is the total.
27:27
I- if you look at Flaherty, it seems to me, I don't know, I'd love your opinion on this, it seems like maybe kind of just wearing down a little bit down the stretch here. If you look at his velocity when it, it...
27:38
I know it was, it was fine last game, but that was on extra rest. But it was like, seems like down the stretch, his velocity down a mile or t- a mile per hour or two.
27:45
I just don't know if it's maybe getting to him there a, a little bit, which th- that gives me a little bit of doubt tonight in all of this. What say you? Yeah. Well, it's a, it's a... Interesting.
27:54
That's a really good point because if you look at his numbers, particularly the last five games, and if you're constructing an ERA with strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and ground ball percentage, which I think are pretty good numbers to use, you're looking at last five game ERA is a 4.79, a 6.18, 4.38, and then against the Mets he was at 10.03, but his last time out he was at 2.72.
28:18
So you've got a lot of variation, uh, with, uh, Flaherty's performance. And, and I, I think if you just modeled it from a standpoint, for me it, it's, it's about a pick him, so I'm a little bit perplexed.
28:29
But now that you're talking about his very recent performances have been, uh, you know, kind of erratic, I guess is, is the best way to, to explain it, Matt.
28:40
So if we're trying to bet this game from a prop standpoint, and if we wanted to play into kind of not only the erratic, uh, like, yeah, that's a great word of...
28:50
that we've seen from Flaherty lately, and then also maybe just the mindset of what the Dodgers are gonna do here since they did keep all of their good bullpen arms and kinda use the, the second tier in the game yesterday.
29:02
Do we look at, like, under outs, like, under strikeouts, like, under stuff like that for Flaherty, thinking, like, "Okay, they're p- definitely not gonna let him get to the third time through the lineup," and, like, maybe if he runs into any sort of anything the second time through, maybe he gets the quick hook?
29:19
Yeah, no, that's a good way to look at it, uh, Matt. I think that, uh, you know,
29:25
the, it seems like these, these, uh, except for last night, it seem [laughs] it seems like, uh, Robert's been super hypersensitive a- about if the guy's showing any kind of signs of weakness, then he does, like you said, give him the quick hook.
29:39
But I thought it was interesting yesterday, and I'm, I'm sitting on a over 51 and a half runs for the, for the, uh, series. I thought it was interesting. He just [laughs] he left Honeywell in there in the game.
29:50
[laughs] And I thought it was... I mean, I think if they would've kept scoring runs, he would've kept him in. He just left him in there to rot. [laughs] And I was just rooting the whole way. And I...
29:57
There was a couple pop-ups. I think Stanton hit a pop-up at the end there. But, uh, I felt, I felt kind of bad for the guy, but I kinda didn't with my bet, you know what I'm saying? Oh, no, absolutely. Yeah.
30:06
It, it was the def- definitely sacrificial lamb thing that was going on out there, and, like, it, it was, it was so obvious. Like you said, it was, like, the, the...
30:13
It was unspoken, but it was just obvious to anyone that was watching. I almost texted you too. I'm like, "Honeywell? This ain't, like, Mount Castle." [laughs] "This guy's gonna get shelled." Yeah.
30:20
And like, uh, yeah, and then he just got left out there to get shelled. [laughs] It was, it was funny. It was like the, "We're, we're not gonna say it, but yeah, we're leaving him out there to just kind of get a..."
30:29
All right, Mark, so everyone's, everyone wants to know, is, is there any bet in your account for this specific game tonight? Is there any bet to be made? Is there anything that you have a lean- Yeah... towards tonight?
30:37
Yeah. I think that the, probably the best bet of the night is, is Betts and Freeman to each get a hit, and you can find that over at PropBuilder, who m- a lot of places have it.
30:47
Maybe some people, actually you don't have to use PropBuilder. Uh, but you can, you can usually get plus money on that bet. It's at p- p- plus 105, and it's, I think it should be priced about minus 130.
30:57
And there's a pretty decent sample size, uh, of, of these guys in the lineup together. Uh, and it, it just, they get hits at the same time a lot more than what it, what it's priced at, Matt. There we go.
31:09
This is where it i- and, like, your, your, your gut feeling in all this, are we, are we gonna see a game six?
31:16
And now by the way, that would be the first time we would, we would even see a game six, uh, when a team has taken a three-oh lead in a World Series. Do you feel like the Yankees get it done at home tonight?
31:26
I think it's a, I think it's a pick 'em. Mm. I really do. I think this, the, the, the more you look at the numbers and the more you dig into this, it's like a 50/50 thing.
31:33
You know, the one thing a- a- about Flaherty that's, that's kinda concerning, 'cause I would pull the trigger, 'cause you're getting plus money with the Dodgers tonight.
31:41
But he's, the, the health issue for him has been such a thing in the back of my mind. And, and to be perfectly up front, I've lost a lot of money not betting on him because it's kind of been in the back of my mind.
31:54
And when you see teams pass on a guy like Flaherty who's put the numbers up over the season, I, I don't, I don't think that that, that's, that trepidation is, is unwarranted.
32:03
But sometimes it, you know, sometimes you overthink it. Mm-hmm. If you're just looking at numbers, like hey, this is a Dodger play. And sometimes, but sometimes you overthink it, you know what I'm saying, Matt?
32:13
[laughs] No, no. Absolutely. He is Mark Borchardt. He is a pro Major League Baseball bettor. You can find him @basewinner over on the Twitter machine.
32:20
Do appreciate it, and hopefully at the very least we get a good game tonight, right? Yeah, no, I'd like to see this thing go, go seven. It'd be great.
32:28
And the more baseball the better, because then I'm, I'm searching for your prop show- [laughs]... after the baseball season, right? I love it. Absolutely, man. Good luck tonight. Thanks, Matt. All righty.
32:38
Kelly, it is a, it's, it's one of those things where I look at this and I see a, a injured Shohei Ohtani, I see a, a Flaherty, like I said- [laughs]...
32:48
that it seems like his, his, his velocity's down a, a, you know, a little bit whenever he goes on normal rest.
32:53
All these things going against the Dodgers, and then I, and then, like, my brain just goes, "Yeah, okay, probably they win by three runs." Yeah. You know, for, you know.
32:58
I think that's a little bit of what Mark is saying there too. All these things going... Yeah. Yeah, exactly. A little, a little bit. All these things going against them just to go, "Yeah, it's probably..."
33:04
Yeah, I didn't even have the cojones to bring up my, uh, my prop bet, uh, on Shohei to, to Mark, 'cause, uh, yeah. I'm just gonna s- I'm gonna play it regardless. You're like, "You know what, I'm gonna sit this one out."
33:13
Thank, thanks, Will, for getting that stuck in my head, uh, yesterday. Oh. I got very excited to bet that, and I will be back at it again tonight, I think. I think I'm gonna sit this one out. No, I'm not sitting.
33:20
I think I'm going back to it tonight. So do you know one of the things that we do at VSiN that I think is maybe one of the best values in, that we get whenever you get a pro subscription? What's that?
33:29
The actual, the betting guides that we do.
33:31
And so the betting guides, if you guys aren't, you know, super, super into sport X, Y or Z, it can really give you a good base and a good primer for what you're trying to figure out.
33:41
And then you can dig in deeper into, "Okay, I'm interested in this. I'm gonna go this way. I'm interested in this. I'm gonna go this way."
33:46
Well, we really stepped it up here because the Breeders' Cup is coming this weekend, and we decided to do a Breeders' Cup betting guide. And so it's got insights from our top experts, six different race previews.
33:59
It's not about just who's running. It's about who's gonna win these things. You'll get the best bets from the expert horse handicappers, give you an edge on every single one of the races.
34:07
So if you're serious about, you know, betting just in general, or you just wanna get some a- like, some action, you know, this weekend, listen, you don't always have to just bet the Kentucky Derby.
34:16
You don't have to just bet the Triple Crown. VSiN.com/subscribe. Now until May the 1st for $120, and that's going to get you not only this betting guide, we also have the college basketball betting guide- Yep...
34:28
that's coming out. The NBA betting guide is still relevant. We're only a few games into the season, so you can learn a lot from all of this stuff.
34:34
So Breeders' Cup this weekend, and all the other stuff that we do, VSiN.com/subscribe. Now to May the 1st for 120 American dollars. And I've got a few, uh, gotten a few tweets about it.
34:43
Yes, the horse, uh, horse racing guests are lined up. Mike Somich will join us tomorrow. Chris Felica will join us on Friday. Both very excited to talk about the Breeders' Cup. Look at this.
34:52
Winners, winners, winners all over the place on this one, or at least horses that are gonna run around the circle. That's right. At the very least. When we come back, is the team actually good? Is it just good?
35:03
Is the team, I don't really know what's going on there. Yes. Are they bad or are they terrible? We're gonna tell you when we come back.
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