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Oct 31, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | October 31, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | October 31, 2024
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Transcript
0:00
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0:24
[upbeat music] The numbers told the story. They always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. [upbeat music] It is a numbers game here on a Thursday.
0:39
Matt Brown, Kelly Bidlin. I'm in for Gil Alexander for the week.
0:42
And let me tell you, Kelly Bidlin, it was looking like we were heading towards the first game six ever in World Series history in which a team had started 3-0.
0:53
And I'm sure a lot of Yankees fans out there also thought that that's where we were going. We, of course, will break that down over the course of today. Great guests on the show.
1:02
Zach Cohen gonna join us to talk all things sports. And Mike Somich, as requested by you, the listener and viewer- That's right... is coming on to talk the ponies and which one is going to run the fastest.
1:14
That, that, that is correct. Hopefully. Hopefully run the fastest. Ho- hopefully. A- and not just, uh, top finish, top three or anything like that. Which one will run the fastest.
1:22
And multiple races I have heard that he is handicapping here. So it's not just, like... You know, like, on- people only care about the Kentucky Derby. Yeah, we always make that mistake. Yeah. Just the one.
1:32
But, uh, there's, like, a lot of races in which he's got opinions on. Yeah, Somich and the Felikas of the world, they're betting every single race, uh, of race day.
1:40
All we care about is the last one or race, you know, 14.
1:43
I want the biggest one, and the one that I can, like, brag about to people if I finally ever hit anything and win anything, because what you don't wanna do is be like, "Yeah, man, on race eight I won the..." Whatever.
1:51
And they're like, "Oh, was that the Kentucky Derby?" No. No. No, it was just race eight. I don't even know what they call it. [laughs] I'm like, I, I don't have any- Just race eight, bro. Yeah, just race eight.
1:57
I don't, I don't, I don't have any idea [laughs] what they call that race, but I won. They're like, "Yeah, I don't care. I don't, I don't care at all."
2:03
They care more about the money they lost in the Kentucky Derby than the money I would win in race eight. Right. Or seven, whatever. Exactly. Yeah, they don't, they don't care at all about any of that stuff. Okay,
2:10
so what did we see last night? Did we see the worst inning in the history, not of even the World Series, but maybe in baseball in general? [laughs] Possibly.
2:20
I think it is something a lot of people are gonna talk about, because you have a Yankees team in control, everything going their way. They're at home. The crowd is into it. Everybody thinks this is a win.
2:33
We are heading into game number six. They are up 5-0 in the fifth inning. And Kelly, the wheels absolutely fall off. We get an error by Aaron Judge. We get a non...
2:45
So this, uh, people are gonna say, like, "Hey, man, you know, how come, how come Anthony Rizzo didn't get over there and c-..." No, this is, it's PFP, pitcher fielding practice.
2:54
You do this whenever you are a baseball player, every single time. If you're a pitcher, you prac- they do this over and over and over. And don't you hate it, b- because you're like, "Dude, I get it. I know.
3:04
I cover first base every time the ball... I understand." It's also the very first thing, the very first thing that's practiced of, of any spring training. Yes. It's pitchers and catchers report.
3:13
They don't want you throwing. And that's the thing, too. They don't want you throwing. Yeah, you, you're not even throwing. You're just doing PFPs. Yeah. Like, that's all you're doing, is just pitcher fielding practice.
3:19
That's all there is to it. And for whatever reason, it just escaped Gerrit Cole for that second. Goes on and on. Next thing you know, we look up, Kelly, it is tied five to five in the fifth inning. At that point,
3:33
I knew, even after the Yankees scored in the sixth inning, which they did, to go up one run, at the 5-5 mark, I was like, "This game is over. The Dodgers are winning the World Series tonight."
3:42
[laughs] You just knew, right? Did you not have... D- you knew in your heart of hearts- I mean-... that it was over... it, it's really ti... I don't care. It, it almost doesn't matter what sport.
3:50
It, it doesn't matter if it's a dr- a couple drives, like, back to back in football, a quarter in basketball, right?
3:55
You have an inning like that, it just feels like there's no chance that you're gonna recover from something like that, and that's, uh, pretty much what happened. Yeah, and they, they bounce back.
4:02
They do get a run there in the sixth inning, but then the Dodgers two in the eighth, and then Blake Treinen, and then Walker Buehler comes in to close it out.
4:10
I thought it could've been the greatest thing in the history of sports had Shohei just walked out there with one shoulder. [laughs] Like, didn't throw- I would not have liked that...
4:18
didn't throw a single warmup pitch, and then just closes the game. They're like, "Hey." Oh, well, pitched, yeah. Yeah, yeah. They're just like, "Hey, Shohei, uh, you think you can maybe close this thing out?"
4:25
And he's like, "Yeah, sure. Whatever. That's fine." [laughs] No problem. Whatever. Yeah, he just goes out there and hadn't thrown a, hadn't thrown a pitch in a game in a year. He's like, just gets it done.
4:32
But Walker Buehler shuts things down. Two strikeouts there in the ninth inning, and the Dodgers are, in fact, your World Series champions.
4:43
We coasted to our bets last night here because- No, I mean, mine's never a coast when I'm fading Shohei Ohtani just to get a hit. So yeah, that was, uh, start to finish. Yours, on the other hand, was yes. A coast job.
4:55
Rocking chair winner, yeah. Yes, yes. Flaherty [laughs] only made it one and a third. So you can't go 15 outs if you only go one and a third. Nope, you can't.
5:02
And it's really, really hard to [laughs] get five strikeouts if you only go one and a third as well. So, uh, cashed that ticket on Flaherty very, very early and very easily.
5:10
And, like you said, you got home on your Shohei Ohtani ticket as well. Finally worked, Matt. It did. Finally worked.
5:16
Down one for three and fading, uh, Dodgers, who have dislocated shoulders in major, uh, World Series games. I, I'm, I'm telling you, we're going... This is gonna be one of those deals, too, where we're gonna find out.
5:25
Like, they're gonna come out and say, like, "Oh, no, his injury's way worse than he was letting on." Oh. And it's like, yeah, it's gonna take all the...
5:30
You know, it's gonna take all winter for him to, to get healthy again. Yeah, I, uh, y- I wouldn't be shocked by that- Yeah... uh, the way we saw him playing and acting the last couple games, but we'll see.
5:40
Didn't look the same, for sure. Did not at all. Like, did not look the same- Not even close... for sure. But again, f- Freddie Freeman just continues to do what he was doing.
5:46
If you'd listened to this very program, Adam Burke came in and said, "Hey, even at even money, Freddie Freeman, in what world does he not win the MVP?" And of course, a runaway for Freddie Freeman. Yeah.
5:56
So hopefully out there you got in on even money on that. You know what was weird? We didn't get a chance to talk about it yesterday, I don't think, but there was [laughs]...
6:02
After the Yankees won that one game, you had a drop in his price for at least at DraftKings. Mm. It was minus 1,800 for him to w- uh, w- win World Series MVP after game three. Dropped down to minus 900. Cut in half.
6:16
I mean, uh, you know, not a ton of us running out there to lay $9- Yeah... but still, like, it was pretty shocking to see it get cut in half, especially since he hit a home run in that game.
6:22
Yeah, the, the only world that existed that he didn't win it was if the Yankees came all the way back. Yes.
6:28
So like you're saying, like I understand not a lot of people have the bankroll to go out and lay, you know, 900, but at the end of the day, if you did not believe the Yankees were going to pull...
6:38
[laughs] We'd never even gotten to a game six. Right, right, right, right. I'm like, you know, like we'd never even gotten to a game six. They'd have to win three games in a row. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
6:45
So yeah, I think it's still a good bet. Yeah. But, uh, would've been... Yeah. Yeah. It's like- So it's like one of those deals where, uh, you know, if you had the money- Yeah...
6:51
it probably would've been good to get in on that. Well, you know, here we are. What do you think's gonna change? Nothing's going to change.
6:57
The, the Dodgers are in fact your World Series favorite as we head into the off season. Four to one. Yeah. Kelly. Four to one. Four to one. Four, four to one. Can you, can you do your Moneyball recap, uh, too?
7:07
We were just ta- discussing with Dave Rossa during the break here. Yeah, just, uh, real quick, I threw out a, a tweet yesterday. Actually, people loved it, and actually loved it in the wrong, for the wrong reasons.
7:16
They were kind of like, "This is ruining baseball," you know- [laughs]... and all the things about it. But I mean, look, it is what it is until they change, and this is the way it's going to go.
7:22
But all six of the teams with the highest payrolls in Major League Baseball made the playoffs. Two of those teams played in the World Series, and one of those teams won the World Series. And then
7:34
six of the seven with the lowest payrolls, not only as you would imagine, not only didn't make the playoffs, they were under 500 o- on the course of the season. By the way, hat tip to the Tigers, who not only- Yeah...
7:44
were over 500- Uh-huh... but also did make the, the playoffs. They were the, the outlier there in that bottom seven teams. But the other six, all of which were the lowest payrolls in baseball, all finished under 500.
7:55
Yeah. A's, Pirates, Marlins, Reds, Nationals. Uh, Tigers keeping Moneyball alive, though. Yes. Clearly, obviously. Yes, yes, obviously. [laughs] But, uh, it's just...
8:03
You know, and, and people are, people are going to lose their minds because Juan Soto is going to hit free agency, and someone is going to pay Juan Soto an absurd amount of money.
8:16
And they're gonna go, "You can't pay this one guy this." You paid Shohei Ohtani $700 million and they go and they win the World Series.
8:22
He has one of the greatest seasons, if not the greatest season we've ever seen by a human, and it's worth it. Like in baseball, if you can, if, if you can buy your way to the top, then buy your way to the top. Mm-hmm.
8:32
You should, you know, if you're one of these big market teams. And he is certainly going to, uh, make things explode when it comes to the, the market. I loved his comments post-game too. Like, it, it was just...
8:42
It, it was nothing crazy.
8:43
I don't even know if you're gonna see, how many shows you're gonna see him on this morning, but it was just him being real with reporters about talking about free agency, when you like almost never get that from pro athletes, right?
8:53
It's like, "Oh, we're gonna take a... We're gonna take some time, think about this. I gotta get with my people." Whatever line you wanna- Yeah... you wanna come up with, right?
8:59
And he was [laughs] he was basically like, "Well, we're gonna talk to everybody." Yeah. "Everybody's open for business." [laughs] "We're gonna talk to everyone.
9:05
And if you have a whole lot of money and you wanna write a whole bunch of zeros- That's right... we'll talk to you too." "We'll talk to you." Yeah, let's go on.
9:10
That includes you, teams over in Japan or [laughs] whatever. Like, "We'll talk to everybody. Doesn't matter. I'm here for the money." And as he should be. Yeah, as he should be.
9:18
As, as- That's what I'm saying, like just- Yeah... everybody... We know those are the types of conversations that go on behind closed doors. Mm. Don't give us the forced lines after these big games.
9:26
Like, no, he's, he's been thinking about it, he's been talking about it. Like, there's no problem with that, and go take care of business this summer.
9:32
If you are, uh, if you're wondering about the rest of those teams- It's winter...
9:35
Yankees seven to one, Braves seven and a half to one, Phillies 10 to one, Orioles are 11 to one, and then the Astros 13 to one, Mets 14 to one.
9:46
Padres, who everyone was high, uh, uh, all hot on in the, uh, postseason this season, 15 to one. Rangers 28, and then the Mariners sitting at 28 as well. Did we leave the Guardian out?
9:56
Guardians are at 28, uh, in there as well. So these are, uh, these are kind of how this... This is how this is gonna look. And, and Kelly, this, it's been chalk.
10:06
If you look, there was a tweet that went out last night talking about the four major sports, and there hasn't been a team outside of the Rangers in the last several years that was longer than 20 to 1 to win- Yeah...
10:16
you know, preseason. Uh, 11 of the eight, of 18 or something like that were, were 10 to one or shorter. It's a lot of chalk. There's a reason there's a lot of chalk, because we evaluate these teams.
10:29
"Oh, this team is better than all the rest of these teams," and that's why we price these teams. And so, and I know it's fun to have...
10:35
I think there's a lesson maybe even to be learned in all of this, which, yeah, it's cer- certainly fun to have. And if you cashed the Rangers ticket for 50 to one, good on you. But I mean, that just doesn't happen.
10:44
And so it's, it's... Maybe we have to start looking at these like [laughs] longer term futures a little bit differently. So I... Drew Dinsick's done a great job on this show of coming on at... This, I feel so bad.
10:53
He's done a great job. Yeah. There's a reason he's done a great job. Yeah. Because he's gotten beaten a lot by, because of this stuff. Yeah.
10:59
And he's brought it up multiple times when he's done his guest spots here about it's just been favorites like crazy. Mm-hmm. And some of these top, those top teams the past couple years.
11:07
So, you know, I think when we look at odds like this, usually what we say after every one of these championships, [laughs] right, it's, "Hey, you're always gonna look to bet on a team whose odds are only gonna get shorter through the off season," right?
11:18
So you're usually looking at longer odds teams. But I don't know if, you know, over the past six months to a year, Matt, yeah. I, I don't know- Mm... if I can sit here and say the same thing anymore.
11:26
I would just not bet this until [laughs] we get close to the season. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, it would be one of those things where unless you got some sort of super inside info, or what...
11:35
You know, sometimes we read the tea leaves. If you knew- Sure. Yeah, yeah. Yeah... if you knew where Soto was gonna go- Right, right...
11:40
or if you knew whatever and you wanted to kind of get out ahead of that t- that move. Because we've seen such reactionary stuff to, to news that the team will plummet in the futures market as soon as whoever signs Soto.
11:50
Yeah, Red Sox are 35 to 1. Yeah. You know, let's just say. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's going down to what? Exactly. 9 to 1, 10 to 1. Yeah, so it's just those type of deals.
11:56
So if you want to try to get out ahead of that, that'd be the only thing. But like I said, man, it's just been a lot of chalk, and there's a reason for it being a lot of chalk.
12:04
We have Thursday Night Football to discuss, and a lot of news in the NFL as well when we come back here on Our Numbers Game.
12:09
[upbeat music]A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network [upbeat music]
12:30
It is a numbers game here on a Thursday. Just talked a little bit of Thursday night football. We'll have some more here later in the show as well. Kelly, I'm gonna be on the Texans tonight.
12:40
I'm going to, uh, play the under in this thing. Got a couple player props we'll talk about later. You bet a lot on Thursday night football, yeah. Yeah, I bet the- 'Cause you bet the under early...
12:48
yeah, I bet the under on the opener which, you know, again, is only a point difference now, but e- and all the injuries don't [laughs] make me jump up and down. Well, hey, you know, it is what it is.
12:56
The King can get out of it. That's right.
12:57
You know, he's still, still doing pretty good, but again, I think it's a pretty, pretty good little buy low point here on this Texans team, which I think is better at pretty much every position except the wide receiver position as we sit right now.
13:07
Yeah, what are, what are we betting player props on? Well, Texans wide receivers? Hey. Is that it? I bet. [laughs] Man, well, man. Who's gonna pick up the yardage?
13:14
[laughs] Maybe we'll s- we'll check on, check in on that. But let's see what Zach Cohen has to say about this game.
13:19
You've seen all of his work over on vsin.com, and you can get him over on the Twitter machine at bettingonx. Zach, I, I, I... Before we get started, Kelly let me know. So
13:30
I've introduced you and talked about your, you know, called you bettingonx. Like, I mean, I had no idea it was a play on the, on the change from Twitter- Oh, yeah... to, to the X platform.
13:39
I just thought that, like, whatever, you know? Like, I... It's just some term that the kids these days are using- [laughs]... that I didn't know or whatever it was, and then Kelly was like, "Yeah, he jumped on board."
13:49
Oh. I mean, Zach, you did- That makes perfect sense now. I never got the Twitter handle. I mean, Zach, you did it on the day, right? The day- Yeah... it changed names. Yeah.
13:58
I think they changed to X and I changed it that day. I had always been struggling with an underscore in my name. Uh, people would, you know, they, they'd write... Even on the show, it'd be like, @justzco, no _zco.
14:08
I was like, "I can't deal with this anymore. Let me ch- capitalize on this little move." Oh, man. I, I was just like, that makes perfect sense.
14:14
See- But I was like, I thought I was just wasn't in on the joke or something. Nah, no. See, like, this is a man who knows branding right there. Yeah. That's what it is, Matt Brown.
14:20
The problem is I don't really know how he feels about it, like, two years later now. Yeah. Well, you know- [laughs] When everybody's, like, still calling it Twitter. Yeah. [laughs] You know, whatever. It w- it works.
14:27
Uh, I mean, yeah, it, it works. Now I get it. Now I understand and my mind will get there with why you were bettingonx. Let's talk a little bit about, uh, tonight's game, though. Sitting about two.
14:36
I'd s- we saw a two and a half pop actually here on this one, as low as one and a half out there in the market as well. We know about the injuries of the wide receiver position for the Texans.
14:45
We know about the defensive injuries on the Jet side of things. How do you think tonight ends up?
14:49
Yeah, I mean, this is a game that I wrote in my column, and it definitely is shaping up like a pros versus joes situation, and I generally do like to side, you know, with the pros in this situation.
14:58
But I have to be able to justify it by looking at numbers, and I just can't do it from looking at these two teams. I believe the Texans are better on both sides of the football.
15:06
They have the better head coach [laughs], they have the better coaching staff in general, and they have a much better quarterback. So I would just be really surprised if Houston doesn't win this game.
15:14
I took them on the money line. Uh, as far as player props go, I heard you guys just talking about that a little bit. I like Joe Mixon to score a touchdown at minus 140.
15:21
Uh, he scored a touchdown in every game that he has finished this season. The only one he did not score was when he injured his ankle.
15:27
Uh, I just think this is a game that the Texans will control, and I just think the Jets are terrible. Yeah, this is a, a game we've, we've talked about a lot. It seems to be feeling that way, Zach.
15:37
I know you've, uh, you've got some Jets fans in your fam- [laughs] in your family as well. I'm a Jets fan, yeah. Yeah, you're a Jets fan. Mm-hmm. Yeah, I...
15:44
Yeah, from a Jets fan's perspective, I mean, what do you think the fut- the future is the rest of this season? I, I... We've been talk- Matt and I have been talking the past couple days.
15:50
I'm like, "I don't know if we've seen the worst version of this team yet." Yeah, I could easily see it falling apart. I could also see, you know, a, an injury to Rodgers or something at some point.
15:59
I, I don't think that we've seen the worst. Like, it could easily happen where they, you know, they struggle down the stretch. I know a lot of people are looking at this game as a potential turning point.
16:07
I just don't see it. I think the Texans are too good. Before we get to the NBA, which I know Kelly wants to, uh, to get in, in earnest with you here, let's do jump over to college football real quick.
16:16
We have a couple of, of marquee games. Of course, the biggest game of the week, Ohio State and Penn State. This one is the one everyone's gonna be tuning in.
16:24
The big noon kickoff, if you, if you will, with our- That's right... yeah, sitting about three, three and a half in favor of Ohio State. 45 and a half is the total. Any thoughts on this one?
16:34
Uh, I have a lead on Ohio State. Mm.
16:35
I would like to get it at minus three or, or, or, you know, maybe take the money line if it gets low enough, but I just think that their defense is gonna be a little bit too much for Penn State.
16:43
I think that Andy Kotelnicki has done a good job with that Penn State offense, but I just think that their, you know, the quarterback play has not been good enough for the Nittany Lions.
16:51
So I definitely think that this is a game that Ohio State should win. I, I, I know that the home field advantage is pretty big there, but I, I don't see them giving over it.
17:00
Uh, Zach, yeah, what else did you end up betting this week? College- Uh, my favorite one is Arkansas plus seven and a half, and I'm also taking the money line in that game.
17:08
Uh, just don't think that Ole Miss has looked all that good this season.
17:11
I think that you look at EPA per play and EPA per play allowed, they definitely say that the Rebels are an elite team, but the eye test is really not matching up with that. Uh, Ole Miss is struggling to score points.
17:21
They are moving the ball, but not capitalizing on opportunities in the red zone. Uh, I don't think that the offense is good enough to go out at an Arkansas team that I do believe is, is very good offensively.
17:30
We saw it last week with Taylor Heinicke throwing for five touchdowns, rushing for another.
17:35
Uh, everything is kind of clicking for the Razorbacks on offense right now, and obviously very difficult to win on the road in the SEC against solid teams.
17:42
And yeah, I, I just don't think there's that much that separates these two. Talking to Zach Cohen.
17:47
You've seen his work over on vsin.com, @bettingonx on the Twitter machine, which actually is the X and which is the X in, in the bettingonx.
17:55
So now we've, uh, we've cleared all that up for the listeners and the viewers out there. Right, he's not actually betting on events that occur on X. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yes, yeah.
18:01
It's just, uh, we, we, we're gonna leave- Yeah, I'm gonna be betting on the WNBA streams that go right to Twitter. [laughs] Yeah.
18:07
Um, all right, Zach, so let's get over to the NBA, and we're, we're a few games in, so I don't want to overreact or whatever to anything that we have seen, but do you have any early takeaways?
18:16
Is there anything that has jumped out at you in the, uh, infancy of the season here?
18:22
Yeah, I think that on the Eastern Conference where I'm looking is, is the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Orlando Magic are two teams that have impressed me a lot, and I definitely think that people talked about them as top four teams in the East before the season.
18:34
I think that we're seeing them actually in that conversation now. The Cavaliers offensively just looking a lot better under Kenny Atkinson. The ball's moving around more. There's a little more purpose to their offense.
18:44
Evan Mobley has looked a lot better offensively.
18:46
It still kind of comes and goes with him, but there's going to be more, you know, 25 point performances out of him where, where his touch around the basket has shown and his three-point shooting has been there.
18:56
So I think that the Cavaliers are definitely a threat, and I also think the Orlando Magic are going to threaten those teams at the top of the East just because Franz Wagner is a player that has always been really good on both ends of the floor, but his jumper kinda got away from him last year.
19:10
That's back this season. Uh, Jalen Suggs I believe has taken a leap, uh, just this lockdown three-point shooter now, a great defender.
19:17
Uh, and Anthony Black is playing really good minutes for them, a first-round pick a couple of years ago. Hasn't given them much, but he's been great this season.
19:24
And obviously, Powell's just been a, a load to stop, uh, in isolation. So I think that team is going to be able to contend in the Eastern Conference very, very soon. Zach, we got four games tonight.
19:34
Um, just looking at lines right now. The Bucs laying six and a half on the road at the Memphis Grizzlies, who might not have Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, uh, multiple players.
19:45
[laughs] Uh, and I'm not gonna lay six and a half with Milwaukee because why, Zach? [laughs] I just don't trust the Bucs, honestly. Yeah. Like, I'm taking a player prop in this game.
19:55
I'm going Ja Morant over 27 and a half points in assists here.
19:59
Uh, Morant has gone over 10 assists in three of the four games he has played, so I do like him to, you know, rack up assists in this game, but I also think he's gonna have to be more aggressive as a scorer.
20:07
Like we said, there are players out of this lineup. He's only shoot 14.3 shots per game this season. Usually shoots around 20 per game. I think we're gonna see him get back up in his, you know, volume.
20:18
Uh, and I do think that they're gonna kinda take the training wheels off. His minutes have been down after he missed some time in the preseason. I think they're gonna get back up soon.
20:25
And yeah, I just don't think this is a great matchup, uh, for, you know, that Bucs defensive back court, which has a lot of trouble with the
20:33
Zach, we got three more games, Rockets and Mavs, Spurs and Jazz, Suns and Clippers. Any other bets in your account tonight?
20:39
Yeah, the only one that I have is Jazz moneyline minus 125, and this is almost as much of a bet on Laurie Markkanen playing as it is on the Jazz. He is listed as questionable with a sore back.
20:48
Uh, you never know what they're going to do with taking them out. Markkanen is a player that, you know, they might look to say he's injured as they look to try to get Cooper Flagg this year. But I...
20:57
It's a little early for that, but I think if he can play, he will. And I do think that the Jazz are in a really good spot here with the Spurs playing their third game in four nights, also second night of a back-to-back.
21:08
Also, San Antonio just has not looked good, uh, this season. Uh, we all expected them to be competitive, but they're outside the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive rating.
21:17
And Utah is a team that should be a little bit better moving forward than we've seen early in the season. All right, Zach, what's going on over at vsin.com?
21:25
I know we got a couple of betting guides that are coming out, or already out, all that. What do we got going over there? Yeah, a Breeders' Cup guide released today. I did not work on that.
21:33
I did edit it, but I do not know much about horse racing- [laughs]... so did not write for it. But that's about the only guide that I didn't help on, but it is really good stuff.
21:40
Uh, there's going to be hopefully a couple of winners in there, so make sure you check it out. And, uh, just a lot of writing on a daily basis.
21:45
I have some tennis picks up on a day-to-day basis, uh, for the rest of the season. And yeah, best bets for everything.
21:51
You can find him over on Twitter as well, @bettingonx, and of course, all the great work over at vsin.com. Thanks for your time, Zach, and good luck tonight. Thanks, guys.
21:59
Of course, he talked about that Breeders' Cup betting guide, and that's part of kind of a special we're running, Kelly, as well. Now to May the 1st, you can get in at everything that we do for $120 over at vsin.com.
22:10
You go to vsin.com/subscribe, and it is our way of saying, "Hey, listen, we understand we're moving." Uh, it's... We're already halfway done with football.
22:20
It's sad season for me because I start to do this thing where like, "What do you mean we only got 10 weeks of football left?" [laughs] It does get sad. We're moving into...
22:27
But hey, listen, college basketball is coming up. We have college basketball guide that's also available, and of course, this Breeders' Cup thing. You and I will take this.
22:34
We will go get the guide, and you and I will come in with some bets tomorrow for Friday. Okay, good, good. That's what we're gonna do. We'll, we'll blow Fleeka's mind when he comes on.
22:41
He'll be like- Yeah, yeah, we're gonna come in like, "So what do you think of that last quarter pole?" And blah, blah, blah. [laughs] And he's gonna be like, "No, you can't say quar... That, that, that's not a thing."
22:46
But I'm like, I'm gonna, I'm gonna pretend. I'm gonna fake it. I'm gonna fake it. I like that you, I like that you started with a semi-logical sentence there but couldn't even finish it.
22:52
[laughs] Dude, yeah, I mean, you know. And what do you think of that last, uh, Beyer's Speed Figure? That, uh- There we go... the whatever. That's one. But, uh, anyway, vsin.com/subscribe.
23:00
$120, everything we do from now until May the 1st. When we come back, let's do some Hollywood, I mean, some Halloween-themed stuff here and talk about the scariest teams in the second half.
23:11
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:29
It is a numbers game here on a Thursday. Thursday Night Football this evening gonna make all kinds of people mad whenever the Jets lose. Everyone over in New York. It's been a bad... It's been a...
23:39
Oh, ooh, I didn't even think about that. After last night? Yeah, could be a rough 24 hours. Oh. Yeah. Oh, after last night. Are people... It's typically, though, Jets and Mets, right? It's not- I believe you're right...
23:51
it, it's Yankees Gi- it's Yankees, Giants- Oh, oh, man... and then Jets, Mets. I don't know why So probably some- I believe you're right. We're about to get 10 tweets, though, correcting us, I can tell you that.
24:00
[laughs] Yeah. I mean, I guess they're... Uh, I don't think it's a rule. I think you can vary, but I think it's just typically- I think naturally you are, yes.
24:06
Yeah, I think it's, like, typically Jets, Mets and then Yankees, Giants if I, if I remember correctly. There's definitely a match. I, i- Yeah... there is a tendency for each- Yeah...
24:13
family to root for, for two of those teams. However- I don't, I c- I couldn't tell you which two... well, however it might be.
24:19
You've seen this guy sitting on this very desk next to me, and he has been talking horses with me for over a year now. He is Mike Somich, my co-host on Ready Set Bet. @somabomb18 over there on the Twitter machine.
24:30
Mike, how you doing, man? Are you just Absolutely hyped because we are gonna have a whole bunch of famous horses running this weekend. I mean, I'm, I'm pretty jacked, Matt. I can't lie. Yeah. This is, this is...
24:41
Like, everyone talks about the Kentucky Derby, and that's the, the general public's Super Bowl in horse racing. The Breeders' Cup is the hardcore's Super Bowl in horse racing.
24:50
You got 13 different races over Friday and Saturday, and it's split up into divisions, so two-year-old boys, two-year-old girls, turf sprinters, dirt routers, everything you could imagine.
24:59
The best in the world all converge in one place and decide 13 separate championships, every race over a million dollars. You get to see the best of the best in the world run against the best of the best in the world.
25:09
What more could you want? So I, I'm, I'm excited here. Del Mar, a phenomenal venue as well. I can't wait to kick this thing off tomorrow around 2:45 Pacific.
25:18
Uh, uh, are there any of the horses that you have talked to personally that we have any inside information about? Do, like, anyone really jacked up and hyped up for this? Uh, I've talked to a couple of them, Matt.
25:27
All right, all right. Unfortunately, they were all Japanese horses- Oh... and I don't speak Japanese. Oh. Oh, well, that's, uh- So I, you know... that's unfortunate... I, I just got the wrong line in there.
25:33
Un- unfortunate, unfortunate. [laughs] M- Mike, Mike's a better guy than me. I was like, I was like, "Has he, has he heard this same bit as many times as I have this week?" [laughs] I, I, oh, you have no idea. Sure.
25:41
Yeah, I mean, come on. You have no idea. All right. All right, Mike, uh, let's start on Friday because, uh, you know, I mean, why would we start on Saturday if there's a race on Friday that you like?
25:49
It is the Breeders' Cup Juvenile here in this one. What are we looking at? Yeah, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, two-year-old colts going two turns, mile and 16th over the dirt course at Santa Anita.
26:00
Uh, or I'm sorry, at Del Mar this year. And these are the horses that everyone's looking forward toward the Kentucky Derby. So last year we saw Fierceness win this race. A horse named Muth ran second.
26:08
Both were the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby. Uh, this year here in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, we've got a really interesting horse on the rail, East Avenue, gonna show a bunch of speed. Been phenomenal at two.
26:19
But the problem for him is Bob Baffert has two in here, and kind of like, uh, kind of like those different, you know, setups where you can say, "Hey, I'm gonna just send one horse like crazy." Baffert loves to do that.
26:29
He loves to send a longer shot horse. Well, that horse drew the two post in Getaway Car. So I think East Avenue gets a ton of pressure from Getaway Car right out of the gate.
26:37
It sets it up for horses who wanna be able to come from off the pace. And the number five horse, Jonathan Way, Jonathan's Way absolutely jumps out to me. Currently sitting at 9 to 2 on the board.
26:48
Jonathan's Way went gate to wire in his first, in his second effort, was able to come from off the pace in his first effort, so we know the mental a- aptitude is there to be able to stalk and pounce.
26:57
I think he gets a perfect trip today. So I like the five horse, Jonathan's Way. That's race number nine on Friday, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Keep an eye on the 10 horse, Chancellor M- McPatrick as well.
27:06
One we've talked about on Ready Set Bet before there. I think he's got a big shot in the Juvenile as well. Sorry, gonna be the seven horse, Gaming, uh, ridden by Irad Ortiz, and the other Bob Baffert horse.
27:16
It's gonna be Gaming there in that one. Well, that is the horse that the Getaway Car is gonna try and set up.
27:22
He, he c- Getaway, or Gaming cannot win if Getaway Car doesn't press East Avenue, so that's one of the main reasons I think you're gonna see East Avenue and Getaway Car hook up early in a speed duel. Ah, all right. Okay.
27:32
See, the, here's, here's the reason I say this is obviously we... How can you pass on Gaming considering the industry that we're in, Mike? I mean, like- Good point... we're, we're, we're picking things- Good point...
27:41
by, obviously by name here. Okay, so the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. Now, this is heading to Saturday. This is, uh, just five furlongs, correct? Correct. Just five furlongs on the turf.
27:53
We actually have a former world record holder as your favorite here. Whoa. Cogburn, your 7 to 5 favorite. Fastest five and a half furlongs in history of time up at Saratoga this summer. But he faces a aptly named horse.
28:05
Matt, I know you're gonna like this one. Ag Bullet, that is the periodic sign for silver, so it's actually Silver Bullet, not Ag Bullet- Oh... that's gonna be running. Uh, very- Huh... very fast horse as well.
28:15
Gonna cause Cogburn a lot of trouble up top. And Europeans haven't done well in the sprint traditionally, but they sent their big boys this year.
28:22
These are the best European sprinters, not the B team like they've been sending over in the past. Okay. I love the 12 horse, Brad Sell, out of the outside gate, 7 to 2 on the morning line.
28:31
This is your best sprinter in Europe. Been an absolutely phenomenal horse. Consistently wins. Has been in the best races across the globe and doing really good work. Getting 7 to 2 right now.
28:41
I think Brad Sell upsets Cogburn. Keep an eye on the one horse, Believing, as well. Has run close to Brad Sell multiple times. Believing, 12 to 1, has a better post and a better price.
28:50
So I like the inside and the outside there, the 12 Brad Sell and the one horse Believing. Sorry, it's gonna be Martorius, because that, that name is awesome. Ah. A local favorite.
28:59
Martorius been running in California for a long time. Horse has a shot, uh, but would need to run the career best there. I mean, Martorius, that is, that is... If we're talking about names, Martorius? That's pretty good.
29:09
Yeah. That's pretty... How do you spell that? Martorius. Exactly how you would- Oh, okay. Yeah, just with the N. Just with an N. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, yeah. I like it. Yeah, it's, uh... There it is.
29:16
So that one's, [laughs] that one obviously is winning. [laughs] Obviously. Obviously. [laughs] All right. So let's head to the big one. Let's head to the Classic. This is a mile and a quarter.
29:23
This is $7 milly in this one, Mike. Uh, some horses that... A- and, and again, like, I'm not... This, this is where I'll turn the, the bit off. These are the horses we've heard of before.
29:32
These are horses, even if you are a casual, uh, horse racing fan, you probably bet on some of these horses before. So this field is really, uh, uh, the all-star field. It is.
29:41
And, and we've got Fierceness, F- Forever Young, Sierra Leone. We've got Ushba Tesoro, Derma Sotogace, all horses that prepped or were in the, the Kentucky Derby, so even the casual fan knows a lot of these horses.
29:53
The one you probably don't know, your favorite at plus 225, 5 to 2 on the morning line, City of Troy. And you know what's unique about City of Troy, Matt? Horse has never run on the dirt.
30:03
Yet here we are as the favorite- Oh... [laughs] in a $7 million dirt race. Oh. This is a three-year-old trained by Aidan O'Brien. The best three-year-old in Europe, hands down.
30:12
Has been dominating older horses in turf races going a mile and a quarter, mile and a half. Phenomenal horse. But you know what?
30:19
You never in horse racing bet a favorite when they're doing something new, and never running on dirt is definitely qualifying as doing something new here.
30:27
Fierceness, your second choice, 3 to 1, was your Derby favorite earlier this year. We know all about him. He runs well. He runs poorly. You never really know what you're gonna get.
30:35
The 3 to 1 price, not bad if you're a Fierceness fan here.
30:38
And if he runs back to that Travers effort where he beat Thorpedo Anna, got a big shot at winning But I'm gonna go to Forever Young, sitting there five to one on fixed odds, six to one right now on the morning line.
30:47
This is one of the Japanese horses that's shipping over for this spot. Forever Young ran in the Derby, ran a very good third.
30:54
Probably would've won that race if Sierra Leone didn't decide to just bang that horse the entire way down the stretch.
31:00
The other key part for Forever Young's Derby, he was way further back than expected, was 10 lengths, 15 lengths off the lead. Forever Young got a really rough break in that spot.
31:10
The smaller field size should allow him to be a little bit closer to the pace this time here running his second race in the US. He had one prep race before that, looked phenomenal over in Japan. Ships in to Del Mar.
31:21
He looks like a different horse. He looks bigger, he looks stronger, he looks more built out.
31:25
You can tell that Forever Young, early in the three-year-old season to late in the three-year-old season, has really been hitting the gym. I think Forever R- Young runs a big race here.
31:32
I'll take six to one on the morning line on the one horse, Forever Young. Tell us about any other horse that maybe people hadn't heard of that are pr- is pretty short there on the line, uh, Next.
31:41
Yeah, Next's an interesting horse. This is one that has been running in marathon races, so mile and a half, mile and 3/16- Mm...
31:47
mile and 3/8, all of these longer distances, and has just been shellacking them, like just absolutely destroying them at this point.
31:55
So Next has won, uh, Next has won, what is it, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven straight races, all stakes races, all at that mile and a half, mile and three-quarters style distance.
32:06
It was time to take the shot, face the best in the world going their distance, the mile and a quarter. Gonna be very interesting to see what we get from this horse.
32:13
He's traditionally been close to the pace, but in those mile-and-a-half races, the pace is a lot slower than when it's a mile and a quarter.
32:19
You also have a horse right to the inside of him, i- uh, in Arthur's Ride, who is going to be an absolute shot out of the gate. What Arthur's Ride does and what Next decides to do with that is gonna be a key here.
32:31
I think Arthur R- Arthur's Ride goes. I think it puts Fierceness in a world of trouble, 'cause all of a sudden he's inside of horses catching kickback, which he doesn't love.
32:38
I think Next does get a good trip on the outside. The big question's gonna be whether or not he's good enough. A- again,
32:44
when he's, when you're doing something new, it's hard for me to back you when I'm not getting a price that I think is elevated. I think fair line for Next is around 15 to one.
32:50
Right now we're sitting there at 10 to one, so I can't get him on the ticket. You know what? I'll give you Forever Young. Uh, there you go.
32:56
The, the, you, you have, you have made one, you've made one right choice here on the, on the program today. Hey, look at that. One good decision. All right. That's more than usual.
33:01
We got a- You usually just slam all my picks. [laughs] We got a, we got, we got 30 seconds, so what do you like tonight in the, in Thursday Night Football? Give me the under, baby. You, you mentioned the injuries.
33:10
The injuries to the Jets are in the se- in the secondary, but they're in specifically the safety position. You've got a depleted wide receiver room for the Texans.
33:16
They're gonna run and run the football with Joe Mixon tonight. I like his overs in rushing yards as well. I, to me, this is just a slow-it-down game if you're the Texans.
33:23
You just wanna get out of here with a win on the other side. Uh, the Jets have no offensive line. They're not gonna play fast anyway, so you're gonna get a slow pace from the Jets without an offensive line.
33:32
You'll have a couple drives stall with those sacks. I think this is a stone-cold under 42 and a half, Matt.
33:37
You can find this man with me on Saturdays and Sundays here on the network, @samabomb18 over on the Twitter machine as well. He is Mike Somich.
33:46
Mike, good luck on everything, and, uh, put on a, put on a, put on a blazer this week, Mike. You know, put on a, put on a blazer this week, you know? That's a Breeder's Cup shirt, Matt. Man, that's legit. Come on.
33:54
That looks legit. Be the room, baby. This is, this, this- It's like the real deal right there... and that legitimizes everything- Please... that he was saying. Yes, you just gotta get a crest- Unbelievable...
34:01
on anything. [laughs] Good l- Imagine doing three hours with this guy. [laughs] Good luck on all your picks this weekend, Mike. When we come back, yeah, it's that time.
34:09
We're gonna rank, 'cause everyone else is doing it, let's rank Halloween candy. [upbeat music]
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