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Oct 3, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | October 3, 2024
Best of A Numbers Game | October 3, 2024
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33:40
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Transcript
0:01
The numbers tell the story. They always do. You one of those idiots who believe in analytics? This is a Numbers Game with Gil Alexander on VSiN. Good Thursday morning to you.
0:10
It is a Numbers Game at VSiN, the sports betting network, vsin.com, Game Plus, iHeartRadio, YouTube TV. However you're taking us in, we appreciate it. It's Gil Alexander. It's my buddy, Kelly Bidley. There you go. Yeah.
0:22
That time I pulled it off. Kelly Bidley, everybody, producer number nine. So much more than a producer. How you doing, man? I'm doing well. I'm doing well.
0:28
I'm getting worried that nobody's gonna actually know what my last name is at this point, but you know. Yeah, that's true. Yeah. It's Beidolon. [laughs] For those who are wondering. That's how it's pronounced.
0:37
It is- Beidolon... you know when, when you have a, just a call with anybody that doesn't know you that works for a company, that's how they always lean into it. They're like, "Mr. Beidolon. Uh, sorry, sorry, Mrs.
0:46
Beidolon?" Oh, yes. [laughs] "Beidolon?" Question mark. And you're like, "Yes. How you doing?" "Yeah, it is, yeah." Uh, we got a good show. You know what Thursdays mean.
0:55
Second hour, unscripted with the Crack Man, Bill Krackomberger, and Bill, uh, he texted me yesterday. He goes, "Oh, I got a lot to talk about." Uh-oh.
1:02
Now, when Bill says this to me, my immediate response is, 'cause I know he has ADD, I'm not talking out of school here. He is a victim of bad ADD. I'm like, "Write it all down, Bill." Yeah.
1:11
So we'll see if he wrote it all down. Okay. All right. All right, so Bill for a full hour with stuff that he wants to talk about coming up. It is- But what, what bad thing happened to him in a casino this week?
1:20
I don't know. That's what I'm gonna go with. Uh, Zach and Crack, part of the Zach and Crack show, of course. Z- Zach Cohen's coming up, our VSiN senior editor, to talk, uh, all things football.
1:28
We'll see if he has any tennis as well. Um, and then we'll talk, uh, Davante Adams next team odds. Jordan Sherwood will be here to talk UFC 307. Looking forward to it all. Um, I do have, by the way, I have a tennis play.
1:40
Uh, usually when the, uh, swing is in Asia, the way th- the, the time that these matches are played are at an awkward time where it's, again, very late here Pacific time, but not so late that it's in the overnight, that sometimes we get some drift, and we can announce them on the show.
1:56
Uh, we went two and two, by the way, on the ones at vsin.com/picks last night, so you didn't miss anything. Um, but, uh, and one, one of them, by the way, was, uh, Yulia Starodubtseva- Oh, love her...
2:07
who, who was almost a $5 dog against Coco, and we got the first set, and then she got beat. Um, but anyway, there, I, I went ahead and, and made a play on a match that was one day forward.
2:17
So if you're interested in any tennis, uh, I do have Karolína Muchová. Karolína Muchová is the c- correct way to pronounce that, by the way, Muchová.
2:26
Uh, got her at plus 167 against Aryna Sabalenka, uh, and also took her to win in Beijing at seven, uh, at, uh, pardon me, at plus 750.
2:39
I don't know why it says plus 701 there, but plus 750 is the correct number on Karolína Muchová. So here's the thing. Um, is Sabalenka awesome on hard courts? Yes.
2:49
But if you look at the data, Muchová's raw numbers on hard court are as good or better. This should be closer to a coin flip.
2:56
At plus 167, it's a must play, and then it follows, you gotta take her on to, uh, to win this tournament. I believe we're in the, uh, quarters at this point, uh, in Beijing. Yeah, quarters today.
3:07
Um, Muchová against Sabalenka. It's, it's plus 155 now. I'd still play it at that price, quite frankly, but that's late night tonight if you're interested in some tennis.
3:16
Baseball, before we get to Thursday Night Football, baseball. Yesterday, we hit on the Tigers, uh, not only, of course, the game at plus 157, but also the Tigers complete the sweep.
3:25
So what we ended up having, uh, in the wildcard round was three and one in picks, uh, which was just under two units of profit, and then two and one in the series prices, which was just under one unit of profit. Um,
3:39
what got us? The Baltimore Orioles. Now, you know the Royals are kind of my team.
3:42
I had them most wins in the month of July, and for whatever reason, I sort of figured that last Orioles stretch in New York, I was like, "Okay, the Orioles are gonna, they're gonna get this done against the Royals," as good as, as, as much as I love the Royals.
3:54
And if you had told me that the Royals would score one run in game one and two runs in game two, I would've been like, "Oh, all the better."
3:59
Nope, wasn't enough for the Baltimore Orioles, who now continue their postseason futility. Uh, y- yesterday was that their 10th straight, as a franchise now, 10th straight postseason loss.
4:11
Talked about this a little bit yesterday, how since the Robbie Alomar teams of '96 and '97, the '96 team being the Jeffrey Maier game in, uh, Yankee Stadium, that, you know that team, um,
4:23
with Tarasco in ri- in, uh, right field, don't get me started. But that's the last time, uh, or since then, I should say, the Orioles as a franchise has won two postseason games, both in 2012.
4:33
They haven't won one, uh, postseason game since 12 years ago, and that streak continues as it's not only upper management malpractice in my opinion. We have this great farm system.
4:44
Uh, you didn't do anything at the deadline.
4:45
Now, I'm not aware of all the details of what it, what you could have gotten, what you had to deal at the deadline, so obviously there's that sort of barrier where you can't get full outrage.
4:55
You can only get sort of half outrage 'cause you don't know all the details.
4:58
But that seems like malpractice to me for a franchise like this that is World Series quality, um, but, but, you know, had to make some moves to get to the top, and they didn't.
5:09
Uh, but Brandon Hyde yesterday, their manager, was just, two days in a row, they allowed Bobby Witt Jr., the one guy that's going to beat you more often than not, they allowed Bobby Witt Jr. to beat them.
5:21
They pitched to him. There was an empty base each time. Um, he's the one guy you just have to avoid, and Bobby Witt Jr. got 'em both times, and that was enough for the Orioles to go down. Uh, did hit on the Tigers again.
5:32
Uh, it was awesome for everybody who jumped on with that. Tigers now will, will take on the Cleveland Guardians in the division series while the Royals will go to Yankee Stadium and take on the Dodgers.
5:47
Remember, uh, excuse me, take on the Yankees. Pardon me. Remember, those are best of fives, two, two, one.
5:52
Two home games at the, uh, at the higher seeds ballpark, then two at the lower seeds, and then back if game five is necessary, back to the higher seeds ballpark. So that's where it goes.
6:02
I did make one play I haven't dived into everything yet, but I did make one play on site, which was the Royals series price. The Royals at just an astronomical price. It's way too high.
6:15
Plus 180 is what I got the Royals at. So for me, that was just there's no way that that team has currently constituted, which is pretty balanced.
6:22
Once they shored up the bullpen and that bullpen performed well in September, pretty good. And I don't think the Yankees this is baseball. The Yankees should not be that big of a favorite.
6:31
So the Royals at plus 190 is the one series I have gone into so far. And in the National League, we did get the Padres series. Padres make do. They get five runs in the second yesterday. That's all they needed.
6:44
They held on to a five to four win against the Braves yesterday. So the Padres advance.
6:49
The Padres will take on the Dodgers in one division series and the Phillies still waiting their opponent because the only wild card series that did not end yesterday is, of course, the Brewers and the Mets.
6:59
The Brewers from the dead in the eighth inning yesterday with a solo shot from Churyo to tie it and then a two run blast to take the lead and it holds.
7:07
And all of a sudden the Mets who were six outs away from advancing the division series. Oh, boy, we got a game five, a deciding game five tonight, 730 Eastern, 430 Pacific. It was the one series I wasn't involved in.
7:19
I don't see a need to start getting involved in it now. Can't wait to watch that alongside some football tonight. This is National Hug a Mets Fan Day as usual.
7:28
That was rough last night and oh boy, they're going to be sweating tonight. I tried hugging Jeff Parlay through the phone yesterday. He was kind of upset. The emotional just valleys that that fan base gets into, man.
7:41
Six outs away. It's just I don't even have to bring up anything about the Brewers fan base. It's just it's this the Mets fan base, man. It's we all everybody knows one that you feel terrible for every time.
7:52
It starts about 45 minutes before the Thursday night football game. Are you more interested in the baseball game or the football game? Football. It's baseball for me. I can't I can't lie.
8:02
When it comes to postseason baseball, I'd be lying to you if I told you that the Falcons and Bucs is going to take precedence over a game five or game three, pardon me.
8:11
So this is where this is where I think football wins out because it's the in theory. What am I more interested in? In theory, I'm more interested in a winner take all baseball game. Yes.
8:19
What am I going to actually watch more of? The football game. And if I'm wrong, you'll be correct. Me too. Well, I'll have them both on. I'll have them both on for sure. And about Thursday night football,
8:27
I'm going back to the well for the third straight week. I'm taking the under again. Okay. Like it. I'm going to keep doing it until it, you know, until there's no corroboration in the numbers and until it stops winning.
8:38
But hit them both the last couple of weeks. I'll do it again with Tampa Bay and Atlanta.
8:42
And as always, when we talk Thursday night football, I always give a shout out to Sean Corner over there, Sean Kerner at the Action Network.
8:49
I'm sure he does great stuff for other days of the week, but I just happen to catch it on Thursday. Sorry, Sean. But on Thursdays, he does a great job.
8:56
And what I mean by sort of do the numbers corroborate the lean to an under and Thursday night football, your instinct kind of should always be default under because it's the short week for both teams.
9:07
And one is obviously traveling. But in this case, once again, the corroboration from Sean Buccaneers, five point six air yards per attempt from Baker Mayfield, that second lowest among 33 qualified quarterbacks.
9:21
He's only throwing deep on four point seven percent of his passes. That's the second lowest in the league. Falcons defense prevents yards after the catch at a high level as well.
9:30
They've allowed the second lowest Kelly yards after catch over expected. Next gen stats keeps track of that. So all of that lends to an under Tampa Bay's run game. Not really good.
9:42
If you're looking for an alternative there, they rank 24th in Aaron Schatz's DVOA over there at FTM
9:48
allow ball carriers to get hit behind the line at the sixth highest rate in the NFL, which has led to the second highest stuff rate in the league. And then there's Kirk Cousins on the other side of the ball.
9:59
We know Kirk Cousins to be the statue that he is now also post Achilles. So even more statuesque, if you will, in all the wrong ways, wrong connotations of statuesque.
10:08
According to next gen stats, 94 percent of his pass attempts come from inside the tackle box. Highest rate in the lead that in the league. That's how big of a statue he is. That's how much of a statue is.
10:19
And then Todd Bowles on the other side loves to blitz, as you know. And Cousins ranks 12th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks and EPA per drop back when facing four or fewer rushers.
10:30
But it drops all the way to 24th when teams bring extra pressure, which is exactly the Kirk Cousins we know. He's completing just forty eight point five percent of his passes against the blitz.
10:42
That's third lowest in the league compared to seventy point nine percent when he's allowed to just sit back there and do what he wants to do.
10:50
Also, Falcons will be without their starting center, Drew Dalman, in this game. Dalman fifth among 37 qualified centers in pro football focuses grades while his replacement sits dead last.
11:04
Ryan Nuzel, the Falcons also a run heavy team. So there is this right that the Falcons are a run heavy team and the Bucs defense has allowed the highest EPA per rush on the season.
11:13
But keep in mind, and they won't be with Antoine Winfield tonight either. But keep in mind, the quarterbacks they have faced have all been not all been, but in three cases out of four have been mobile.
11:24
Jaden Daniels, Bo Nix, Jalen Hurts. So Kirk Cousins, not the animal that those guys are. So, again, shout out to Sean Corner at Action Network for all of those numbers. Put all that in the mix.
11:34
And by the way, the Falcons remember when they got their points last week, it was via pick six and via that muffed punt by Shahid in the Saints game. Give me the under tonight. Falcons and Saints Thursday night football.
11:45
We'll come back. Zach Cohen, his thoughts on football and more next. A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network A numbers game has a special offer.
12:03
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12:09
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12:22
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12:35
Can't think of anything else that rhymes. [laughs] Go to vsin.com/subscribe to sign up now. That's V-S-I-N.com/subscribe. Hey, you wanna read some tweets? I'll read some tweets. Uh, we get tweets at Beating the Book.
12:48
This is from, uh, let's see, this is from Mike Stacks who says, "Is Kelly the longest running producer? Don't break this band up." That's a great question. How long have we been doing this?
12:59
Well, we did Primetime Action, so that doesn't count. Yeah. A&G's been for over two years now. I think you might be. Yeah? No, Parles, 'cause Parles was the- I was gonna say, Parles had-...
13:09
groom of Cleveland Yeah, he had two administrations. Yeah, Parles, still Parlet. Two administrations, groom of Cleveland of, uh, producers.
13:14
Uh, David Chalifour, "I do declare it's Thursday with the crack man in the Megapod. Let's go." Yes, Megapod after the show. We got to. That's Cleve TA. Nice. Continuing with just great Megapod guests.
13:24
Cleve is gonna join us on the Megapod with Todd Wishnev and Will Hill.
13:28
Uh, Brian M., "With messing up Kelly Bidlin's name this week, it made me think, we know Kelly is so much more than a producer, but would you rather 2024 with Kelly at the table or 1994 with Kelly Bundy?"
13:38
Sorry, Kelly Bidlin. I'll take Kelly Bundy- [laughs]... in 1994. Uh, let's see. Oh- I think you'd still take Kelly Bundy. [laughs] I actually referenced this yesterday. Giuseppe Betta, Giuseppe Betta.
13:49
He says, "A 2016 wild card game where Buck Showalter refused to pitch the best reliever in baseball, Zach Britton, cursed the franchise.
13:55
Watching the game was maddening, especially since I always liked Buck as a manager." I actually referenced that via text yesterday. I was like, "Well, Zach Britton should be available."
14:02
[laughs] Um, but, uh, yeah, and by the way, it goes beyond. I, I said, you know, that, that Brandon Hyde had pitched to, to Bobby Witt Jr. in two spots where it's just c- cardinal sin.
14:11
You should never have done that to the one guy who is just magic. Bobby Witt Jr. is just ridiculous. If Aaron Judge didn't exist, he's your American League MVP.
14:20
Um, Rufus Peabody, our buddy, who's one of the best, if not the best sports bettor of his generation, he is a... You know, he's not a fan of any sport team- Yeah...
14:30
really, except for, we grew up in the same area, he is a monster fan of the Skins and more so the Baltimore Orioles.
14:37
We're, again, even though Rufus is a little younger than me, we're of the generation of Washingtonians that are too young for the Senators and too old for the Nationals. So we're all Orioles fans.
14:46
And he was going, I've never seen Rufus act like this before, ballistic yesterday talking about Brandon Hyde, and he was talking about more than just the Bobby Witt Jr. stuff.
14:55
He was talking about, uh, r- pinch hitting for the wrong person, um, also using your best reliever in the, you know, on, in the, was it the fifth inning yesterday?
15:05
Uh, so it was just, he was just going nuts about everything. It, it's really the only team I feel like I ever see him [laughs] get go- Oh... go crazy about. He loves the Orioles. Yeah, that's all. Loves the Orioles.
15:14
Um, let's see. Do, do, do, do. Bobby Knuckle says, "Can we flip this and do unscripted with Zach and betting on crack?"
15:21
[laughs] Well, let's see if Zach Cohen, uh, if unscripted with Zach Cohen [laughs] ends up being something. Zach Cohen, VSiN senior editor right now, senior, senior writer joins us courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line.
15:31
You can follow him on Twitter at BettingOnX. We always love when Zach joins us. Uh, look at him with his Wisconsin... Is that a Wisconsin T-shirt you got on there? It, it is.
15:39
Yeah, I'm still showing some pride even though this has been a really trying season so far. [laughs] Yeah. Uh, w- when, when you're on, I always love to start with tennis before we get to football.
15:48
Uh, obviously, uh, it's w- the tours, both w- ATP and WTA have been in Asia, uh, we're in Shanghai, we're in Beijing still on the lady side. The, the whole weeks have been so strange.
15:59
Like, you had a Sinner-Alcaraz match in the middle of a week. Um- Yeah... it's, it's been very, very weird for those of us who follow tennis. Do you have anything in tennis today? I do.
16:08
I have two plays for tonight or the overnight, whatever it is. I have Holger Rune minus 138 against Matteo Berrettini.
16:15
Uh, this is a matchup that has gone Rune's way, uh, over the last couple matches, with one of them being in Cincinnati where Berrettini kinda stormed out to an early lead, took the first set rather easily, but from there, you know, Rune figured him out and won in pretty much one-way traffic the rest of the match.
16:29
Also, Berrettini's coming off an injury last week where he was leading Arthur Fils, who ended up winning the tournament after the first set, and had to, you know, drop out of the match with a lead in the match, which you do not see very often.
16:39
So I'm a little concerned about his conditioning this week.
16:41
It is hot there, it is humid there, so I, I think this is a really good matchup for Rune and a really good number on Rune, who's, uh, just playing a little bit better over the last couple of weeks.
16:49
And then I also went with, uh, Yibing plus 130 against Nic- Nicolas Jarry, who is one in nine in his last 10 matches, has had a really, really tough year, uh, in and out of the, you know, the tour with injuries, and just has not been able to find a rhythm.
17:03
Wu is a player that is really highly talented, has a lot of power from the baseline. Uh, he had an injury himself that kept him out of the action over the last couple years, but he's back now.
17:12
He's eight and four this year with some of those matches coming at the challenger level.
17:16
Played really well in a win over Sumit Nagal, and is playing at home, so I think he's comfortable, and I just really like the number at plus 130.
17:23
Yeah, for those who missed it, right, by the way, I have not looked at Shanghai tonight, so I ha- I, I don't know if we match or don't match on any of these, uh, but just for people who missed it, they know you're on Rune.
17:32
By the way, Holger Rune. Yeah. What's the full name, Kelly, again? Holger? Oh, man. Vitus- I, uh-... not a scuff Rune. [laughs] All right. All right. I thought he- Failed... I thought he would get that. Failed.
17:43
Uh, and then, uh, because, because it was, uh, a little, uh... Maybe pe- maybe people missed it. You are fading Nicolas Jarry, and you are taking Yibing Wu. Yibing Wu. Yep. That's Y- Uh, plus 130.
17:53
Yeah, Y-I-B-I-N-G Wu, and I think you pr- I think you actually say Wu Yibing, actually. Um, so that's who you're on. Yeah. Two tennis matches in Shanghai. Uh- Yeah... okay.
18:04
Then let's go to, uh, let's go to the National Football League. Anything on tonight's game, first of all? I have a slight lean on the Buccaneers, and I also like Rashad White to go over 19 and a half receiving yards.
18:15
That's probably the play that I would make the player prop. I just think that, you know, they're playing Bucky Irving a little bit more. He's definitely going to factor into this backfield a lot more moving forward.
18:22
He's just been great. Uh, but you know, Rashad White's just such a proven pass catcher. Uh, he's had a lot of success against the Falcons in his career. He's gone over 20 yards in three of his four meetings with them.
18:32
You know, some of those have not even been close, and White's just a player that I see them looking to get the ball to for some easy completions in this game.
18:39
Uh, just the Falcons have struggled a little bit to cover opposing p- uh, running backs out of the backfield. So I really like this matchup.
18:46
That's a really low number, too, for a guy that can easily go to 50 receiving yards if I had to s- you know, if I had to say. So I, I like that one.
18:52
But I also do like the Bucs because, look, these are two teams that have been relatively similar defensively this season. But Tampa's top 10 in offensive EPA per play.
19:01
Uh, Atlanta's nowhere near there, and I just kind of think that this Falcons team could be sitting at 0 and 4 right now.
19:07
They've had a lot of really good luck so far, you know, beating the Eagles in a game where Philadelphia gifted them a win and, you know, winning on a muff punt last game where they didn't score a single offensive touchdown.
19:16
I don't think this is a great football team. I think Tampa Bay is. Anything on Sunday? I have the Vikings money line minus 140 in that game against the Jets, and I...
19:26
it's almost scary to me how low that line is given what we've seen so far.
19:30
I just think that Minnesota, uh, is top 10 on both sides of the ball, and I really trust that defense going up against a, a Jets offensive line that was miserable last week. They couldn't block for Breece Hall at all.
19:40
Uh, Aaron Rodgers took a lot of hits. They c- you know, committed five false start penalties.
19:44
That's something that I could see them cleaning up this season, maybe after this, you know, week, but not on a short week where you're flying over to London. That's going to be really difficult for them to clean up.
19:54
And I think that the Vikings are gonna be able to move the ball on the Jets' defense, maybe not a ton, but Darnold's had a good season.
20:00
O'Connell's just been, you know, dialed in with his play calling, and this is kind of a revenge game for both of them, with Darnold being, you know, failed by the Jets organization and O'Connell cut on, uh, hard knocks by the Jets organization.
20:10
Yeah, what, what is your general London sort of philosophy? And maybe there's, even after all these years, maybe there's not enough big of a sample size to even draw a conclusion, but I'm curious.
20:20
Do you go into London games thinking, "Okay, this should even the playing field somewhat between the team that I feel is better versus the team that I don't feel is as good"?
20:32
In other words, the travel sort of mitigates that difference. Or do you think that that is, um, not really the case and it doesn't affect your handicapping in any way?
20:42
Yeah, it doesn't affect my handicapping all that much. I mean, the flight's not that long. Like, I, I did it myself. It wasn't that bad [laughs] when I was, I flew from New York to, uh, to London.
20:50
I, I think that where it, where it k- impacted this game for me is that I think the Jets need some more practice time, and they're not gonna get that with, you know, losing a day or two where they normally wouldn't.
21:00
So that's where I kinda think it actually helps the Vikings, um, which is why I was so surprised to see the line.
21:05
I do think that, you know, one of the interesting scenarios we've seen with London is where a team stays there and plays two weeks in a row. That benefits them when they're already there a week.
21:13
But yeah, I'm not factoring it in as much as I probably should be. And that will come into play with the Jaguars, correct? Yep. The two in a row. Yep.
21:19
Uh, the Jaguars who, uh, again, play a significant percentage of their home games- Yeah... every year, even if it's just one game, uh, in London. Their de facto home away from home.
21:28
They could use a, uh, a London swing at this point. Uh- Yeah... only a minute left. Anything else in pro or college? Uh, I took the Broncos against the Raiders.
21:36
I, I don't feel great about Denver's offense this season, but at least Bo Nix has gone two games, you know, without throwing an interception. He did throw his first touchdown pass last week.
21:44
So you would think his confidence is building up a little bit. I think that Sean Payton should be able to scheme up some things against, you know, a below average Las Vegas defense.
21:52
And also the Raiders, that offense is kind of a bit a mess right now, especially with Davante Adams probably out the door.
21:58
I don't really see them scoring on this Broncos team a lot, especially when, you know, Denver's passing defense has been awesome this season.
22:04
It's really surprising after what we saw from them last year when they were one of the worst defenses in the league.
22:08
But they're second in the league in EPA per play allowed this season, have looked great two weeks in a row. So I kinda trust them to get some stops.
22:14
And then on the college side, I'll say my favorite play is Cal plus 10 and a half against Miami. I'm also sprinkling the money line on that one.
22:22
I j- I just kinda think Justin Wilcox is, you know, one of the best defensive minds in all of college football.
22:26
He has an extra week to prepare for this Miami offense, which we just saw, you know, play a pretty shaky game against Virginia Tech, where Cam Ward made some mistakes.
22:35
I think that the Golden Bears are gonna force a turnover or two out of him, and I... so, you know, they're gonna be fired up with that being their first game day ever.
22:41
I know they're pumped in Berkeley for that ball game and for game day and for the matchup itself. Thank you, Zach. Appreciate it, man. Thanks, guys. We're coming back more football on the other side.
22:49
[upbeat music] A numbers game on VSiN, the sports betting network. Baltimore needs wide receivers. The Rams need wide receivers. [laughs] I was just going through teams over the break. I, I'm still going through it.
23:07
Oh, yeah. Um, it was, that was the amazing thing about, uh, Davante Adams, that whole exercise. Gil Alexander, it's Kelly Bilin. It's a numbers game right here at VSiN, the sports betting network.
23:15
Uh, we're gonna talk to Jordan Sherwood about UFC 307 in moments. I just wanted to clean up a couple things. One, uh, obviously again, with series prices, we have three already established in Major League Baseball.
23:25
We'll have the fourth established after the Brewers and the Mets today. Just sort of like a, a handicapping PSA with the Brewers and the Mets because it is a, a game three.
23:36
Pardon me, I keep forgetting that it's not a g- a best of five. It's a best of three. With a game three, with any deciding game, managers are gonna be quick on the hook, so your instinct with props ought to be under.
23:45
Obviously, the books know that as well, so they're gonna adjust for that, but sometimes they don't adjust enough. Not sure if they will have outs props at all. Like it? Total outs.
23:54
But if they have strikeouts, that's a thing to look at.
23:57
Um, and then in terms of one of the other series, talking about our Tigers, 'cause we have the Tigers in the World Series matchups, you know, the, the calculus for the Tigers bets was in a best of three, which the Tigers just had against the Astros, Skubal, Tarik Skubal, uh, Tarik Skubal, the presumptive Cy Young Award winner, he's gonna pitch one of those three, right?
24:15
And now in the best of five against the Guardians, he's going to pitch two of those five. Uh, I thought it was gonna be game two and then five if necessary. As it turns out, it's gonna be one and four if necessary. Okay.
24:25
Um, because there is plenty of time here to be on, on, you know, standard rest 'cause of travel, 'cause remember it's 2-2-1. So just a couple baseball notes there.
24:33
Now, when it gets to game, you know, the, the best of sevens, if they can set it up as a 1-4-7, that's great, but if they can't, if this one bleeds into five games, they can't do that exactly, so we'll see.
24:44
I guess it makes sense though, 'cause you could, you could bring i- if it was emergency situation game five, Skubal could be a- available possibly, right? Yeah, we'll see. Right.
24:52
I mean, for like in a, in a- In a, in a Mad Bum kind of way? Right, yeah, exactly. Um- In a Madison Bumgarner, send him straight to the Hall of Fame kind of way. Before we get to Jordan, who is holding, uh- Yeah...
25:00
so politely for us. Yeah. A couple, I, what you bring up, props. I did wanna just talk about Thursday night real quick. That, that Bucky Irving, Rashod White note that, uh, Zach brought up is interesting.
25:09
There's been a lot of reports out of, out of, uh, uh, Bucks', uh, uh, camp this week about Bucky Irving taking over the workload, uh, more for, from a carry standpoint.
25:18
I think y- you need to see that play out first, though. I know Zach on that Rashod White receiving prop, I think that's still smart if they still think he's gonna be the third down back.
25:26
And then the Bucks wide receiver situation, obviously we know Evans and Godwin are great.
25:30
They're gonna be g- out with McMillan and Palmer, so third and fourth wide receiver for the Bucks out tonight, gonna have to look further down that depth chart if you're looking for some overs on some, uh, receiving props.
25:39
Yeah. And I just wanna say with this one last thing, I'm just gonna let it simmer as we go to Jordan, but I'm not sure Christian McCaffrey's ever playing. Ooh. Uh, well, well, the season or again? I don't know. Okay.
25:53
I just think if you have- He's back stateside- If you have-... which makes me feel better... if you have bilateral Achilles tendonitis and you went to Germany, I just wonder. Yeah.
26:01
The d- the, the, the Germany thing is always, uh, a little bit of a red flag. I know. Yeah. I just don't know. We've seen that in the NBA. There, it's just, it's awfully quiet about it is all I'm saying. Yeah.
26:09
And if he, if he appears in two weeks, g- I, I'm hoping for the best 'cause I'm a, I'm a Niners guy. Not a Niners guy, but I, I think the world of that team, and so they're that much more awesome with him.
26:19
I did ac- I was actually pleasantly surprised to hear he was back in San Francisco. Yeah. Oh, I did make a Brock Purdy 15 to one bet on MVP- Nice. Like it. I like it...
26:27
on the heels of the Aaron Schatz segment yesterday as well. Okay. Jordan Sherwood joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line, uh, for UFC 307 talk.
26:36
Jordan, of course, co-host of the Unnamed MMA podcast on ESPN Chicago. You can follow him on Twitter at woodonESPN1000. How you doing, Jordan? Uh, I'm great. Uh, and I'm great because it's Po'eton week.
26:48
In my mind, Alex Pereira is the biggest star that the UFC currently has active on its roster, and we get to see him perform yet again, uh, very quickly in another title fight, uh, on Saturday night in Utah against Khalil Rountree Jr.
27:03
Yeah, and Pereira is a prohibited favorite. He's a minus one f- uh, excuse me, a minus 450 favorite in this light heavyweight title fight. Uh, Rountree about plus 385 on the comeback.
27:14
And I mean, those numbers appear to be justified. You t- you'll, you tell me if that's true.
27:18
Pereira three inches tall, excuse me, uh, yeah, Pereira three inches taller than Rountree, a five-inch reach advantage, um, in what most folks will think will be a standup battle. Um, justified, that line?
27:31
Uh, yeah, well, that's the point, Gill. It's, it's, it's gonna be a standup battle.
27:35
You know, Pereira does not have to worry about takedowns with Rountree, A, because he's not, uh, doesn't have a grappling or wrestling background [laughs], and more importantly, uh, in what, 10, 11 fights in the UFC, has never attempted a takedown.
27:49
And now there's this back and forth with Pereira and Rountree where Pereira's asking, uh, Rountree to donate to a, uh, a nonprofit of his choosing if he does shoot for a takedown, which Rountree has agreed to.
28:01
[laughs] So you're getting a fight stylistically- [laughs]... that favors Pereira, uh, a matchup where he has that reach advantage, he has the size advantage, he has, uh, the advantage of fighting in championship fights.
28:13
So I think you just have to decide, okay, if Pereira's gonna win the fight, he's gonna likely win it via KO. Is it gonna happen early in the fight?
28:21
Which I believe, or do you think there's gonna be a feeling out process a little bit, Pereira's gonna try and get comfortable in, then look for the, the, the kill shot, uh, you know, second, third, uh, you know, maybe into the championship rounds.
28:32
But that's where you find the value in Alex Pereira, determining if he's gonna win it early, which I believe he will.
28:39
I don't think he's gonna waste any time and, and look for a win in round one or round two, or is he gonna go into the championship round? Okay. And so you suggest betting him how?
28:47
I would say he's gonna win and win early. Okay. So you gotta do a combination of Alex Pereira wins in round one, Alex Pereira wins in round one or two via KO.
28:57
That would be my suggestion because I think Rountree's gonna leave himself susceptible.
29:01
He's gonna have to get inside, use that explosiveness, and that counter shot's gonna be available for Pereira, which we've seen him done countless times, uh, and, and finish guys early in fights.
29:12
Pereira to win by knockout in round one, plus 185 at DraftKings, and plus 400 in round two. All right. Raquel Pennington, Julianna Peña.
29:22
Um, Peña, correct me if I'm wrong, she was the one that beat Amanda Nunes, right, famously, and then got crushed by Amanda Nunes th- thereafter. Uh, and then there is Julianna Peña.
29:33
Excuse me, yes, there is, uh, Pennington, pardon me. Pennington the favorite here, minus 170. Uh, she won the title over Mayra Bueno Silva in January of this year. She's on a big match winning streak.
29:44
Uh, standing advantage Peña, everything else not, right? Yeah, uh, but it's, it's a slight advantage for Peña o- on the feet, if you wanna argue it that way. I think just Peña's probably a little bit more active.
29:57
Uh, but she, she's gonna wanna look for takedowns. Pennington's gonna wanna look for takedowns and, and maybe work in the clinch as well.
30:04
Uh, I, I think these, these, these ladies mirror each other in a lot of different ways.
30:09
So when you're handicapping this fight, you then go, okay, well, the, the, Pennington, uh, you know, has shown great takedown defense, so Peña's gonna struggle to get the fight to the ground.
30:20
And we have not seen Peña since she lost, uh, in that big, as you said, big fashion to, uh, Amanda Nunes.
30:28
So it's been over two years since she competed So that's a worrisome going into a championship fight, a five-round fight at altitude in Utah.
30:37
So I think as you can clearly see, this, this fight's going into the championship lo- rounds, and likely, you know, to the judges' scorecards.
30:44
So the way that I'm actually handicapping this fight, um, certainly on the over, but I think more importantly, Raquel Pennington to win the fight, uh, and then likely Raquel Pennington to win the fight via decision.
30:55
Uh, she's just gonna out-point, uh, you know, handle the pressure from, from Pena, uh, win on the feet, and then get a takedown there, and, and win, uh, in, in many judges' scorecards that she needs to.
31:06
So you wanna add a little bit more value to a Pennington play, uh, her to win via decision, uh, would, would, would be my recommendation. Pennington via decision. Yeah, looking for that one.
31:16
[laughs] I thought we had our- Didn't have it loaded. Hadn't had it loaded... I thought we had our, I thought we had our price guy right over here. Uh, even money. There we go. Kelly Bidlin, everybody.
31:24
Sorry about that, Jordan. All right, so now in addition to those two, you have three dogs that you love here on this card. Yeah, it has to do with match-ups.
31:32
I think Jose Aldo, even though, you know, he's getting up there in age, and he retired but then came back and, and performed brilliantly in Rio, stylistically he's got a good match-up against, with Mario Bautista.
31:42
Yes, there is that concern about cardio holding up. He, at 38, at Utah, Bautista's a pressure fighter. But this is a stand-up fight. Uh, and if Bautista works, wants to work in takedowns, that's a tall task.
31:55
Jose Aldo probably has the best takedown defense in UFC history, so the championship pedigree, the fact that I don't think Jose Aldo's slowing down, just needed a little bit of a break, I like him at plus money.
32:05
The same with Roman Dolidze and his match-up against Kevin Holland. Look, it's a middleweight fight.
32:10
Holland is a big welterweight, a fast middleweight, but has struggled with guys in the middleweight division that look to take him down. Dolidze's not a great wrestler, but he has that, uh, in his arsenal.
32:21
I think he's gonna work that. Uh, the concern would be maybe he's just, you know, out- outsped on, on the feet, but I don't think, so I like Dolidze plus money. And then good old Wonderboy Thompson.
32:31
Look, he's gonna get a stand-up fight against Joaquin Buckley.
32:34
I think Buckley could get, fall into a trap of being lulled into a point fight, a kickboxing match, and I just don't think Buckley has the overall power to, uh, get Stephen Wonderboy Thompson out of there with a knockout, and I don't think Buckley has the wrestling, uh, which has caused some issues for Thompson of late.
32:53
So I like Stephen Wonderboy Thompson likely to win, likely to win via decision. Uh, and, uh, those are three dogs that I'm looking at here early on in the week on a Thursday with Saturday fights looming.
33:04
All right, Aldo, Dolidze, and Thompson, the three dogs on the UFC 307 card besides the two, uh, marquee match-ups, if you will. What was your, uh, reaction, Kelly, when he said Aldo?
33:13
Aldo and Thompson, a combined age of about, uh, 85. No, but you also said, "You're gonna make me bet Jose Aldo again?" Well, I've, I've bet Jose Aldo for, like, 40 years at this point. [laughs] Not that long, 15.
33:23
And he usually cashes, so what's the problem? And he usually does. Well, what's the problem with that? I don't know. I don't like it. Jordan, he's complaining about your Jose Aldo pick.
33:30
Uh, thank you, Jordan, appreciate it. All right, fellas. Thank you. J- Jordan Sherwood, everybody, on UFC 307. Crack is next, unscripted, Numbers Game, Visa, the sports betting network.
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